StevieDay1983

Premier League Predictions > Feb 26th & 27th

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Going to take an early punt on spurs to beat Chelsea at 3.12, as I think this price may come down a bit in the next day or so.  Main reasoning is Chelsea have just played 120 minutes and lost a final, and there are obviously issues within the squad.  Who will be in goal will certainly be interesting!

Spurs have had an extra day of rest and were disappointing against Burnley, although I always thought that was going to be a tough match against an in form team, so I wasn't too surprised by the result.

My main reason for wanting to back spurs is Pochettino is very good at picking up the team after a disappointing result, and its very unusual for spurs to go on a long losing run.  This is obviously a tough fixture but spurs have had the better of Chelsea over the past couple of seasons, finally managing to win at Stamford Bridge last season for the first time in something like 30 years!  

With Chelsea's issues, I expect the spurs price to come back in a bit so want to take this one now.

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There are quite a few prices I like the look of in the midweek coupon.  I actually think the bottom two teams have got a chance of picking up a result this week.

Huddersfield- beat wolves away in the reverse fixture and if they are ever going to not lose a game, I think this is a good contender for them to get something.  Wolves I've said plenty of times raise their game against the big 6 but don't fancy playing the smaller teams.  They have nothing to play for other than to keep fresh for the FA cup.  Huddersfield +1 are 2.05 and I think they can get at least a draw from this one.

Fulham- Southampton are odds on again at home.  They have played Cardiff, Burnley and Crystal Palace (2 at home) in recent fixtures and not won any of them.  Without Ings who I think is still injured they lack a cutting edge up front.  Yes Fulham are terrible defensively, but they can score, and 1 goal might be enough to win this one given Saints struggles to have any fit strikers at the moment.  Again, taking Fulham on a +1 handicap at around 1.91.

 

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

Burnley have been undefeated in their last 8 matches in Premier League.
Huddersfield have lost their last 5 matches in Premier League.
Wolverhampton have scored 43% of their goals after the 75th minute in Premier League.
Leicester City have failed to win in their last 6 matches in Premier League.
Brighton & Hove have conceded 2 goals or more in each of their last 4 away matches in Premier League.

You can find interesting 53 Football Betting Streaks for 26.02.2019 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-26-02-2019-13570

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Cardiff City v Everton FC

Cardiff City: Bobby Reid (20/4 m, illness), Lee Peltier (10/0 d, illness), Victor Camarasa (23/3 m)(all doubtful), Oumar Niasse (5/0 f, loan from Everton)

Everton FC: Yerry Mina (10/1 d, doubtful), Kurt Zouma (23/1 d, suspended)

 

Huddersfield v Wolverhampton

Huddersfield: Thomas Smith (8/0 d, suspended), Adama Diakhaby (11/0 f), Isaac Mbenza (17/0 f), Danny Williams (3/0 m), Abdelhamid Sabiri (2/0 m)

Wolverhampton: no absences

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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The premier league remains a betting minefield. Crazy, inconsistent results dominate the card every week. Almost pointless to be taking low priced bets where there is such a level of inconsistency.

Tonight's games look horrible. Cardiff v Everton, looks like anything can happen there. Everton have not drawn an away league game in almost 2 months, losing 5 of their last 7 away. Remove the freak result (1-5) vrs Burnley and they don't look too clever.  A game to avoid for me, but forcing a bet I would oppose Everton here.

Leicester v Brighton, another 'any result possible game'. Both teams in a slump, showing no form. Hard to get 'up' for this game, and harder to commit money to a bet here. 

Newcastle v Burnley another tricky game. Newcastle running into some form, while Burnley (and Man United) are the only 2 undefeated teams in the league in the last 7 games. An early goal could open the game up. If I was trading, I would give it 25 minutes. Nil Nil at 25min I'm out, but an early goal could open it up.  

Wednesday I do like Saints to beat Fulham. Fulham just conceding too many soft goals.

Everyone on the Solskjaer bandwagon at Man United, but I don't see it. Sure United are miles better than under Mourinho, but Mourinho lost the squad and failed badly. He set the bar so low. In the three big games United have played under Solskjaer, they have looked really poor.  A red hot keeper got them the points at Spurs, but they were ripped to shreds in the 2nd half. PSG ran rings around them, and they were totally dominated by Liverpool. Did they have a shot in the game ?

In all of these games United simply could not pass the ball forward. 2 or 3 passes and possession lost. Every time. They were just lucky that Liverpool are a little 1 dimensional at the moment. 'Pool don't cross the ball, and have no headed goal threat, so you can pack the middle of defense and make it difficult for them.

But Solskjaer made a mistake by bringing Lingaard  on. Should have brought Sanchez on instead, and saved a substitute.  That was a pretty basic error.

So Palace v Man United Wednesday is quite interesting. United will be pretty disjointed, losing Matic, Martial, Lingaard, Mata, Herrera. I see a low scoring game here, with a single goal winning it. Does Rashford sit out with a slight niggle ?  It's a huge opportunity for Fred and Sanchez, and hopefully Daliot (instead of Young) to show what they can do. 

Sometime best just to watch and wait, perhaps a good in game opportunity presents itself.

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12 hours ago, betcatalog said:

Leicester is expected to face a heavy defeat from Crystal Palace with 4-1, defeating Brighton. Opportunity to get the points of victory
LEICESTER CITY vs BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION @@ LEICESTER CITY, odds 1.90

I'd leave this game alone. Brighton are desperate for a win, and it could well come tonight. Leicester are going through a managerial change at the moment, so there is no way of knowing what mood is around the camp. Rodgers hotly tipped to leave Celtic & take over.

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Cardiff vs Everton: Draw

Cardiff are sitting 17th in the table - 1 point above the relegation zone. Bookies still see them as relegation favorites but we will have to see what Neil Warnock has up his sleeve.

Warnock has been in the Premier League 4 times: 

Full season with Sheffield Utd in 06/07 - finished 18th and went down to Championship on goal difference

20 games with QPR in 11/12 - got sacked after disappointing results and team on 17th place

16 games with Crystal Palace in 14/15 -  came after 2nd round and got fired when 18th

I did some calculations including this season and the Warnock average shows 9 wins, 8.6 draws, 20.4 losses for whole season & home record of 5.6 wins, 5.2 draws, 8.2 losses. The Cardiff only average shows approximately 6 home wins, 4 draws and 9 losses. For that estimate, I only included the 1.7 seasons of Cardiff in the Premier League as we know it (full season being 13/14 when they finished last with Solskjaer). 

Compare those averages with Cardiff's home record of 5 wins 2 draws 7 losses in 18/19 and a draw seems most likely, especially as Everton has had bad away record last few years that included at least 6 away draws in the last 3 seasons(vs 3 draws this one). Everton even had 2 away draws vs teams from the bottom 3 last season. It is also worth noting that in 13/14, Everton beat with 1 goal difference Cardiff (half time -draw) like this year and drew in Wales. 

I also like checking the correct score odds before placing bets to see if markets agree and bookies see a 1:1 draw as most likely outcome. I guess Cardiff will want to avoid a thrashing like the one vs Watford or what Everton did vs Huddersfield and may play conservatively with a draw being good for them in the fight for survival.

P.s.: Correct score odds seem to favor Leicester and Newscastle 1:0 wins as the new manager effect & Almiron give them an edge. Might place a bet on one of those to win by 1 goal difference. will decide when I go to the bookies. 

P.s.2: just played the draw as single. Other games seem shaky

Edited by vicsuna

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Cardiff vs Everton

OK, so I was a bit off on my Cardiff prediction last week. In my defence, Neil Warnock's team selection was baffling. Disrupting the centre back partnership of Sol Bamba and Bruno Ecuele Manga that has been key to our previous two victories and bringing back in Sean Morrison just weeks after he had his appendix removed. Plus, he left out Bobby Reid who has been class. It was madness.

In this game, we play hosts once again at the Cardiff City Stadium. On this occasion, it's a 7:45pm kick-off against Everton. I think this game will have a big say in how the rest of our season will shape up. If we win then it shows Warnock still has the fight for the survival battle. If we lose then it could be the start of the end.

Oumar Niasse is ineligible to play which is an issue because he's been superb since we signed him. However, Kenneth Zohore could come in and he's looked a lot more like his old self. Warnock and the players have said he's shaken off his niggling injuries and appears hungrier than ever. If he can come in and do a job then it'll be like a new signing.

The Toffees have lost their last three league games and we ran them close at Goodison Park in a narrow 1-0 defeat where many pundits felt we were the better side. I am actually thinking about backing us as a double chance option here. I'm expecting Warnock to make the necessary changes and get a reaction from the lads. Yerry Mina and Kurt Zouma both being unavailable is a boost for us.

Looking at the odds, I'm not sure the double chance price is worth it. I do fancy us to get something from this game though. I'll back a low-scoring game and I think it'll be worth backing Zohore to score anytime. Call me a naive and optimistic fan. It feels strange given my pessimism but if I can't believe my home town team will win then who will?! Come on City!

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.80 with Betfair

Anytime Scorer: Kenneth Zohore @ 4.50 with SpreadEx

@Mindfulness, @Pep004, @MaliMisko12, @betcatalog, @sajtion, @godofhorses, @Tiffy, @waynecoyne, @The Sexless Innkeeper, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @Duke_Tm, @dogmeister, @Arkadi Manucharov, @derbent, @fat, @allyhibs, @6avin24, @discipline, @the bastardian, @Bronxie, @Bett@KikoCy, @teddybear3011, @markus808, @allthethings, @Kenton Schweppes, @vasilli07, @Dylan Lynch, @neilovan, @JKos, @zemo91, @kulikTS, @mrclubbie, @Judeksi, @Henind666, @Teodore, @kilkenny1, @newjack, @PokerWolf1, @Dave1X2, @real55555, @jazzman02, @Ameer13, @Gedkip, @mcsilks, @MangoTheThird, @Roy The Boy, @DonPaulo, @Duckets, @yossa6133, @sjuesju, @dylanphan, @thfc, @Dboston, @Dr. Florida192, @money44, @1moregoal, @ggm31v, @EuroDream, @ndanmak, @cummins91, @vicsuna, @abigail, and @AndreBR, what do you all think ahead of these midweek matches?

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Cardiff City - Everton
Everton(2.16) 0-1 FT

Leicester City - Brighton
Leicester City(1.85) 1-0 FT

Huddersfield Town - Wolves
Huddersfield Town(5.00) 1-0 FT

Newcastle Utd - Burnley
Draw(3.10) 1-1 FT

Arsenal - Bournemouth
Arsenal(1.44) 3-0 FT

Southampton - Fulham
Southampton(1.90) 3-1 FT

Crystal Palace - Manchester Utd
Manchester Utd(2.35) 0-2 FT

Chelsea - Tottenham
Chelsea(2.32) 3-1 FT

Manchester City - West Ham
Manchester City(1.16) 4-0 FT

Liverpool - Watford
Draw(5.80) 1-1 FT

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

34% of Watford's conceded goals occurred after the 75th minute in Premier League.
Arsenal have won their last 7 home matches in Premier League.
67% of Bournemouth's matches had over 2.5 goals scored in Premier League.
Southampton conceded at least 1 goal in each of their last 8 home matches in Premier League.

You can find interesting 72 Football Betting Streaks for 27.02.2019 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-27-02-2019-13573

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OK, so it's really annoying me that Neil Warnock has veered off course from what was a successful winning formula. No idea why he's done the following...

- Bringing Sean Morrison back into the team 6 weeks after having emergency appendix operation and splitting the solid Manga/ Bamba partnership

- I appreciate Lee Peltier is ill but why he hasn't just straight swapped Leandro Bacuna in for Peltier, I don't know

- Dropping Harry Arter is madness!

- Using Bobby Reid differently to how he was when we were winning games.

It's annoying because it's going to cost us our place in the Premier League and it's making my tips look ridiculous!

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Man City to win against West Ham looks certain now. Pellegrini has picked a 19-year old left back (it's his debut) and Andy Carrol starts in front. Carrol is useless, even though he might be extra motivated to score against city and help Liverpool. He can get sent off pretty easily though. On top of this, Noble is on the bench and Obiang starts.

I see plenty of goals in this match, if City are up for it - even though Fabianski has been great this season.

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