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neilovan

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Everything posted by neilovan

  1. 3 pm kickoffs. For me Chelsea will beat Southampton. Just too good too organised. NO contest, and probably the home win to NIL or no to BTTS. I think Leeds will lose at home to Watford. Watford are a decent team, with teeth. Leeds just to open. I expect Watford to win a high scorer 2-3 or 1-3 Norwich will lose probably 2-0 at Burnley. They are destined for relegation, and Burnley are just a difficult opponent. Would be going no to BTTS here, or home win and NO to BTTS.
  2. Halep v Rybakina Looking at the stats for this matchup a few things are clear. Halep is a far better returner of the ball, creating 1.1 breaks points per opponent serve game (against top 50 and lower). Excellent numbers ! Rybakina is around about .75 Rybakina has a poor hard court record when compared to grass and even clay this year. Wins: Clay 12/18 Grass 6/8 Hard 10/20. Kind of makes sense because on hard court the bounce of a fast paced ball is true, making returning easier. Halep has been far better against opponents ranked 50 and below (9/13 wins). Rybakina is 8/20 against similar group. So it's a match up between a good server (who will dominate if the serve dominates), and an excellent returner who will do likewise if the returns dominate. My feeling is that the return dominates and Halep wins a relatively close match. Kicker for me is that Halep has won 5 of 7 three setters (last 10 months) while Rybakina has won just 5 of 16. So a close match going to 3 definitely favors Halep. Evans v Popyrin Evans had COVID and it definitely affects one, especially at elite sport levels. I had it in June, luckily not badly, but getting back on the court was weird. Somedays ready to go, and other days as flat as a pancake with no energy. Weird loses at CIti Open and Canadian (Nakashima and Bublik, hardly world beaters). Popyrin comes into this in better form. The win over Dimitrov was excellent ... (Dimitrov quitting at 2 sets down and 0-4 was p&s^poor). Dimitrov was looking great prior to this, serving like a demon! An interesting fact is that Popyrin also comes from the land of the Giants (he is 6f 5'), and resulting cannon serve (see Korda at Wimbledon) seems to give Evans a lot problems. Break points faced are very low. Nothing much between them but the ability to get free points on the serve swings it to Popyrin for me. Once you can get freebees on your serve, you can attack your opponents serve and be ultra aggressive, because you know you are gonna hold your own. Alcaraz v Tsisipas Alcaraz has a real shot here. Something is not clicking with Stephanos. I don't think he played brilliant against Murray. Murray actually gave him the second set, and probably the match. How he arrived at Wimbledon was totally bizarre, getting dumped in the 1st round. Which player ranked 4th in the world is gonna arrive for a major like that, so under prepared? Alarm bell for me. Alcaraz really impressed me with his demolition of Norrie in the 1st round. The nature of the win was quite unexpected, showing court craft and guile against a crafty/finesse type player. Not a big bet on Alcaraz here but the outcome is prob gonna be a lot closer than the pre match odds suggest.
  3. I took a small bet on Cressy to win. Carreno Busta a better player and returner of serve and he was helpless.
  4. I think its quite tricky with Barty for a couple of reasons. 1) She is way to good, and sometimes loses her focus and drifts in a match. Last match she was set point down in the breaker 6-7, and then played 3 great points in a row to win it 9-7. 2) Her serve is not a huge weapon, so she lands up being broken often. So she is dominant and wins, but they are closer than they should be.
  5. Konteviet to beat Teichmann I do think Konteviet is worth backing to go deep. I watched all her matches in Cleveland. Her ability to take the ball early and redirect, was very very good. Rock solid backhand, which is going to help her nullify the left handed Teichmann. Teichmann had a very good Cinci Masters (Osaka, Bencic, Pliskova) but I think two of those opponents were under cooked and not ready to play. In the Tie break that Konteviet played against Begu in the Cleveland final, she never dropped a point on her serve, and played the breaker behind (always serving to catch up). Her mental fortitude was that of a Champion, and her decision making and shot exection under pressure ... excellent! For me the kicker is that Konteviet is 13 of 15 when playing against opponents ranked 50+ in the last 10 months. Brooksby to beat Fritz Something not quite clicking with Taylor Fritz at the moment. He lost first match at Citi Open (Kudla 6-4 6-2), Canadian Open (Duckworth 7-6, 6-3) and Western and Southern (Ramos Vinolas 4-6 6-4 6-4) . For me he had a huge drop off in holding serve. Kudla broke him 5 times in 9, Duckworth 3 in 8 and Vinolas 4 in 15. At the BB&T Atlanta for example, he lost to Isner in final and held his serve 58 of 59 serve games. So compared to that he's had 3 bad matches (serving) in a row. He won his 1st round match against De Minaur which is no big deal for me. The Aussie simply has no weapons to really hurt anyone. So he's fast and fit ... big deal. Everyone is fast and fit! But De Minaur did spank him 6-1 in the 3rd set, which again says his big weapon (serving) is not quite clicking. Brooksby is on a massive roll. Ranking coming down, auto qualifying, and going deep at the Citi Open. His game is rock solid, and at 21 years, is looking like the next star (with Korda) of US tennis. At the Citi Open he held serve 49/52 times. I would be looking for the straight win, or at least over 33 games here. My low priced banker oh oh ! Hurkacz, Hubert v Seppi, Andreas 2-Way Odds (12) 1 1.09 Pospisil, Vasek v Ivashka, Ilya 2-Way Odds (12) 2 1.26 Harris, Lloyd v Escobedo, Ernesto 2-Way Odds (12) 1 1.24 Not sure why everything is starting at 6pm (SA time) and 5pm UK time today?
  6. Kalinina to beat Kerber at 3.78 Obviously somewhat of a long shot, but I do like the fact that Kalinina defeated Kerber at the French, demolishing her serve (broke it 6 times in 9 games) in a 6-4 6-2 beating. Kalinina struggling against the weapons of top players, but Kerber not a top player anymore.
  7. yet another walkover gets me nothing . Dimitrov quitting at 2 sets down and 0-4. They really should pay out this crap. Must be my 8th lost bet in the last 10 days like this.
  8. my weather predictions are like my tennis predictions...
  9. O. Danilovic (SRB) vs.N. Osaka (JPN) [3] D. Koepfer (GER) vs. D. Medvedev (RUS) [2] S. Stephens (USA) vs. C. Gauff (USA) [21] A. Mannarino (FRA)vs.S. Tsitsipas (GRE) [3] A. Petkovic (GER)vs.G. Muguruza (ESP) [9] V. Azarenka (BLR) [18] vs.J. Paolini (ITA) F. Tiafoe (USA)vs.G. Pella (ARG) K. Anderson (RSA)vs.D. Schwartzman (ARG) [11] A. Kerber (GER) [16]vs.A. Kalinina (UKR) are the matches on the main courts . Pretty lousy viewing in my opinion. Looks like blowout after blowout. I think Stephens can definitely beat Gauff amd Petkovic has a decent chance against Muguruza. Would take them both separate as low priced outsiders. Jabuer, Cornet and Siniakova all beat her, and Petkovic is not far off these players. Medvedev cleans up, Mannarino demolished, Paolini beaten easily, Andersen will also lose to Schawartzman, and Tiafoe too strong for Pella.
  10. Doubt there will be any outside matches today. They are gonna get 3 inches of rain. Cats and dogs.
  11. Just a quick post. 3 inches rain expected in NY today, so only play on Louis Armstrong and Arthur Ashe. My brother had free tickets (4 rows off the court), but its a real mission to get up to NY from Philadelphia,, and then drive home late in pissing rain. Also 35000 people packed into two 'indoor courts' makes covid possibilities.
  12. Schmiedlova butchers it, leading a set and 4-2
  13. Could change him and take Rielly Opelka against Kwon at 1.31 ? I have another three legged bet that I feel confident about Badosa, Paula v Van Uytvanck, Alison 2-Way Odds (12) 1 1.25 Bencic, Belinda v Rus, Arantxa 2-Way Odds (12) 1 1.22 Hurkacz, Hubert v Gerasimov, Egor 2-Way Odds (12) 1 1.15 van Uytvanck will struggle in the heat (meant to be 30C today, with humidity). Bencic is just tough as nails, and Hurkacz my 'dark' pick to win it all, works out around 7.5 to 10 and that's my big bet of the day
  14. Back for more punishment after yesterday. Had Rebecca Petersen to beat Mertens and she blew it, leading 6-3 and 5-2 serving for the match. Just a bizarre game, in which she was dominant and did not win. My feeling in the big draw tournaments is that there is plenty of low hanging fruit that can be used to make decent 6-9 legged bets, especially in the early rounds. Obviously, anybody can lose but I like this 9 legger. Galfi, Dalma v Martic, Petra 2-Way Odds (12) 2 1.44 Kostyuk, Marta v Sakkari, Maria 2-Way Odds (12) 2 1.38 Pliskova, Karolina v Mcnally, Catherine 2-Way Odds (12) 1 1.10 Moutet, Corentin v Travaglia, Stefano 2-Way Odds (12) 1 1.56 Raducanu, Emma v Voegele, Stefanie 2-Way Odds (12) 1 1.15 Barty, Ashleigh v Zvonareva, Vera Correct Set Score 2:0 1.20 Schmiedlova, Anna-Karolina v Krueger, Ashlyn Correct Set Score 2:0 1.24 Bucsa, Cristina v Teichmann, Jil 2-Way Odds (12) 2 1.19 Kvitova, Petra v Hercog, Polona 2-Way Odds (12) 1 1.17 So 3 legs are a little risky for me (Moutet, Sakkari and Martic). Krueger done great to get into main draw, but this is a huge step up in opponent. My algorithm puts Sakkari way in front regarding serving and returning ability. Sakkari has played 9 matches against opponents ranked 50+ and has won 8 matches. Martic is a seasoned pro, who doesn't beat herself. She also dominates the serving stats here, and its again a big step up from challenger level from Galfi. I'm prepared for slightky more risk in the men's choices, simply because it's best of 5 and class should prevail. For me not a huge amount between Moutet and Travaglia, but I do like the fact that Travaglia lost quite badly to Ymer at Winston Salem. At the Cinncinati masters Moutet beat both Popyrin and Pospisil and I think it sets him up well here. Interested to hear your views as to which horse is gonna poop the bed Best of luck to you. .
  15. Wow, what an awful tie breaker she played. Pathetically bad, missing 5 forehands. Error strewn rubbish.
  16. I think with the 5 setters there is more space for a match to swing. Especially when players are not invested in a set (ie. the Humbert match).. They will rather throw a set and fire in the next one. Auger Alissime looks in trouble
  17. We have 3 channels of tennis on here. Keys v Stevens Vecic v Muguruza Auger Alismme v Donskoy. Crazy. Keys even worth a bet now, even at 7 to 10
  18. Ugo Humbert about to be dispatched. He was 2 to 10 to win.
  19. I watched quite a bit of the WTA in Cleveland and the other one. Konteviet was excellent and so was Svitalina. Konteviet won the breaker against Begu, and never dropped a point on her serve. She was brilliant. Streets ahead of Giorgi, making no unforced errors second set (ridiculous).
  20. I know, Just thought she would maintain some of her Canadian open form, but it was a flash of lightening
  21. Nice to see Giorgi bomb out twice in a row. Amazing to see woman pro's who cannot serve the ball. Go and practice. Giorgi won 1 point in 5 in the tie-breaker on her serve.
  22. So finally the US open is here. They have new surface supplier at US open (started in 2020) called Laykold Tournament Supplier Surface ITF Court Pace Rating Ball Used Australian Open Greenset Worldwide Australian Open GreenSet Category 4 – Medium-Fast Dunlop Australian Open French Open Supersol Red Clay Category 1 – Slow Wilson French Open Wimbledon Mother Nature 100% Perennial Ryegrass N/A Slazenger Wimbledon US Open Advanced Polymer Technology Laykold Cushion Plus System Category 2 – Medium-Slow Wilson US Open Tiny bit slower than the old court surface decoturf which will definitely help Djokovich. But in the Woman's game it makes things very interesting. Fitter and stronger get assistance. I don't think anyone fancies playing someone like Sorribes Tormo on this surface, especially in NY heat (not bad this week). My #1 tip for the day is Giorgi to beat Simona Halep. Giorgi winning the Canadian Open, beating 6 top 40 players in a row is insane. Her next week was an (expected) emotional/physical letdown, but the batteries are charged and she will come out blasting. She won 5 of those 6 matches in Canada in straight sets, serving really well. Pound for [pound, not many on the Woman's tour hit it harder than she does. I think Halep gets overpowered here. She is just not ready for the US open. She played one match in a warm up tournament, and then withdrew second match. She is definitely under cooked and for her to be the fav in this match up is just wrong. In the mens' I like Kyrigos to beat Bautista Agut. Hopefully Nick has not been playing video games 24/7 for the last 5 weeks. If he is reasonably fit, and slightly motivated he will cause an upset here. I don't mind his attitude .... he's honest. He has serious talent, but his ability to win free points off the serve could get him home. Plane, luggage, taxi , hotel, practice, match is a brutal soul destroying grind, week after week, for an entire year. As for the Brits, I just don't know. Evans has not been playing well ... really since Wimbeldon. Murray got a brutal draw against Tsistipas first round and will get hammered. Norrie has a really tricky match against Carlos Alcaraz, who could easily win there.
  23. Can't catch a break all day. Gauff blew it, Watson just not able to get over the line. Opelka lost in final set tie breaker, and my one (current) bet winning retires. Interesting to see Fognini lose (who was 3 to 10). Now Halep withdraws and gives a walkover. Seriously just unreal.
  24. I watched Halep limp past Magda Linette yesterday and she was really weak. The rain really helped, as she had been zapped in the second set, and it let her reset completely. Linette had something like 15 break points against Halep and won just 2. It was ridiculous! Pegula coming off a serious win over Camilia Giorgi ... 6-2 6-2 is a pounding, though somewhat expected due to fatigue from Giorgi winning and beating Pegula, in the final of the Tournament the week before. Pegula at the Canadian was super good, winning 4 three setters against excellent players. She is mentally strong and fit, while Halep is undercooked and just coming back. No contest! I am not keen to back low priced favs in tennis, but I'll make an exception for French open champion, Barbora Krejcikova. She is and will be a terminator in tennis for a good few years. Got so much game and basically invincible against players ranked (51+). In the last year played 22 won 21. Banker against Yastremska today. My third pick of the day is Jennifer Brady, playing Jelena Ostepenko. Ostepenko had a bad loss at the Canadian Open (6-1 6-3 from Siniakova). Brady was the Australian open finalist this year, so she plays well on hard court. Key here is that she is playing on home soil, and is used to the hot weather (shes from Pennsylvania which is pretty close to Ohio). Not so hot today, but the clammy humidity is overpowering (and I say that as a South African and we have hot weather too). I am also prepared to have a relatively small bet on Heather Watson to win against Ashley Barty. Barty is probably undercoooked and under prepared. Loooooong flight, quarantine, huge pain in the buttock ! Watson has already played 3 matches here, winning two qualifiers and a main draw. There is simply no practice like match practice and at odds close to 4.8 to 1, def worth a gamble. My last pick (that I'll share:) is Cori Gauff to beat Naiomi Osaka. Osaka is in a fragile place at the moment. Last match before this losing at the Olympics, early? If Gauff can just keep her composure she wins this. In the men's I like both Opelka and Isner. Will take them as single bets, both equal stakes. Maybe both win, but probable that one of them wins today. I really don't think they both lose today. One winner = PROFIT. Opelka has a really strange game. At 6 feet 11 he is a giant amongst the giants. For a big guy his baseline to net movement is exceptional.
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