neilovan

Two matches that really impressed me yesterday were Cerundolo v Fritz and Jabeur v Danoliovic. Quality of all players was excellent, and both were terrific matches. The Jabeur match surprised me. Did not know that Danilovic was so good. Best woman's match of the tournament for me. Ball striking was very good. So few unforced errors and exceptionally good shot making under big pressure. Jabeur showed formidable mental fortitude. Going back to my two 'outsiders'. Cerundolo and Jarry. Both have been unbelievable. They are just so good, and they understand the way to play on clay. I'm not so impressed with Rune, and think Cerundolo has a fair chance to win there. He has a forehand cannon, with a crazy top spin whip, very similar in ball flight/shape to Nadal (obviously right v left hander but the strike point and spin is similar). It is sneaky good. For me Rune drifts. He can be very good, and then drift off. Hopefully Cerundolo can take advantage of this. I have more confidence in Jarry beating Ruud. For me Ruud is the poor man's Thomas Berdych. Workmanlike, but kind of dull. You don't see the spectacular from him ... in my eye's he is just a grinder. Where can his game improve, or has it already maxed out? Jarry beat him recently (in Geneva) and I think he repeats the dose here.

Most of the players hate the drudge of travel, hotels, practice, hotel food, taxi's. It is endless (Jan to late Nov) and brutal. So they like to arrive as late as possible, try and wing it against (hopefully) a weaker opponent, and find their fitness and legs on the match court. So they are vulnerable in the first matches after a long flight. Americans also very vulnerable after travel, especially in Europe, because it feels strange for them. I think with the shorter odds, you can find players that are exceptional front runners. I don't have access to match scores (showing each game played), only set scores, so I can't evaluate those who go, say 3-1 or 4-1 up. I can only really evaluate front runners by how they do 1st set.

I am curious as to opinion on the Cocciaretto v Pera match. My feeling is that Pera wins, but am interested in all opinions. I have a small bet that works out at 6.71 . Hardly breaking the bank, but I did not think much of Cocciareto. Sure she beat Kvitova, but Kvitova played like a disinterested zombie (She has won 36$ million so lack of motivation is a factor). Pera has already faced two dangerous opponents in Vekic and Konteveit. For me this matchup against Cocciaretto looks to be much easier. Multibet (3) 6.71 Andreeva, Mirra 2.01 Andreeva, Mirra v Gauff, Coco Winner French Open Women Singles 2023-06-03 13:00 Andreescu, Bianca 1.67 Andreescu, Bianca v Tsurenko, Lesia Winner French Open Women Singles 2023-06-03 14:15 Pera, Bernarda 2.00 Cocciaretto, Elisabetta v Pera, Bernarda Winner French Open Women Singles 2023-06-03 14:15

Not much between these players, but Cerundolo can get down on himself. Fritz is mentally very tough. He's not gonna beat himself, while Cerundolo might.

I like 4 low priced favorites today. Will take them all in a quad which should give 18 to 10. Nicolas Jarry - in the form of his life. Paul, Dimitrov, Zverev and Ruud all top ranked defeated players since 5/22/2023 . No contest here against Giron. Alexander Zverev to beat Francis Tiafoe. Zverev owns Tiafoe at this point having a 6-1 record against him. He hit the ball really well against Molcan the other night, and those conditions seem to suite him. Clay is also a game of patience and I thing he outperforms Tiafoe in this department. Rybakina to beat Sorribes Tormo. Rybakina just has the best serve in woman's tennis. It is such a strong weapon that it sets up all other aspects of her game. Every serve game from her is a battery of 1-2 punches. Short points, behind the serve that end in her favor. One way traffic here. Ons Jabeur to beat Danilovic. I watched the Danilovic v Paolini match. Was a low quality, scrappy affair. Not sure how much of it Danilovic won, rather than Paolini lost. I don't think she can step up to the required level, against a quality opponent who is playing on her best surface.

The Andreescu v Azarenka was a big match for me, so I was watching closely. Azarenka 6-2, 3-1 40-15 (2 serve break points for a double break) ... game over! At that point Andreescu just relaxed, had nothing to lose. She played really well and showed her true ability. Her confidence went up and she was in control. Azarenka did not play badly, she was just outplayed, and lost a few big points. For me Tsurenko also caught those opponents at the right time. All three undercooked and not ready for the clay season. Essentially arriving late (not so much Svitolina), and hoping to get through the 1st round and gain game time. If Andreescu plays similar to set 2 and 3 against Azarenka, this only has one outcome. I think her starting odds of 1.72 means that you have some scope to take this bet in play. If she starts well with an early break, you will probably get her at 1.45 or around 1.4 which is fine. That is my strategy here for a big bet. Just want to see the early momentum.

I like your write up but I think Gauff has a major major weakness with the forehand. At this level, it is a very weak shot. She has no confidence in it, and the fundamentals are all wrong. In a tough match, the weakest shot goes to pieces first, and it should/will be targeted relentlessly today. I would be staying away from her, because this shot can/probably will knock her out. Andreeva has won 12 of her last 14 sets. At the French she has won10/10 with 7 of them being 6-2 or better.

I'm not really impressed with Tsitsipas. Sure he is a great player, but there is something just lacking. Jeri Vesely, playing on a medical comeback exemption ran him quite close, and a motivated, confident Schwartzman is waaaay better than Vesely. I don't think Tsitsipas comes near rolling over Schwartzman. Schwartzman looks solid, playing well, with confidence. Somewhat of an outside shot here, but I am taking him for the win. If his mind is right (which it is), he is a very very tough customer on clay. I'm going with the above with Norrie to beat Musetti. Last time out Norrie won the 1st and lost in 3. Not betting much here, but it could be a day of upsets. At 30+ to 1 I think it is worth a small bet. Will add the current match in progress, Sonego to beat Rublev, who could choke in the 5th. Gives about 50 to 1.

I watched her match against Bencic and she was excellent. Had real composure and hit the ball exceptionally well. Bencic just folded up under the pressure.

A poor day today. Garcia is just clueless imo. If you are the superior player, then longer rallies should favor you. Why stand in so close that every return becomes a lottery? Just doing nothing other than remove your own advantage. Just one pick tommorow. Tiafoe over Karatsev. On pedigree, this matchup is a no contest.

Schwartzman powered back after losing the 1st 2 sets, and was a very strong finisher. I think he will gain confidence and get better.

Real bizarre day yesterday. I won some in the end but Krejcikova and Azarenka hurt. Azarenka 6-2 3-1 and 40-15, up somehow manages to lose, while Krejicokva is 3-0 up 2nd set with break points and also loses 5 of the next 6 games. Krejcikova just had a case of nerves, very similar to Bencic. Not going crazy today. Just looking for 2x5 low priced favorites who can get the job done. Multibet (5)3.84 Svitolina, Elina1.26 Pegula, Jessica1.35 Garcia, Caroline1.37 Begu, Irina-Camelia1.17 Avanesyan, Elina1.41 Svitolina is a top player. She looks confident and strong. She will go deep here. Pgeula just has too much power for a 1 dimensional Giorgi. Garcia played very well against a really tough 1st round opponent. Has way too much here in a much easier match. Begu just too strong. Very impressed with Avanesyan. Had excellent composure and played brilliantly against Bencic. Have one other 5 legged bet Ostapenko, Jelena 1.37 Zheng, Qinwen 1.30 Hurkacz, Hubert 1.41 Bautista Agut, Roberto 1.39 Musetti, Lorenzo 1.26 Bautista Agut is just such an underrated player. He has tremendous stamina and is a real grinder. Hurkacz has a stronger game (of very similar styles to Griekspoor). Ostapenko was messing around with Martincova in 1st round. Was 5-1 down in the second and then won 6 games in a row to take it 7-5 Musetti has too much talent and ability for Schevchenko. Will take all 10 as singles (looking for 8 wins minimum) as well as taking 2 x 5 legged doubles

Hi All, Have not posted forever. Actually been working pretty hard. Six players I do like today. Two are low low priced. F. Cerundolo and Nicolas Jarry. Both are in an exceptional place. Very confident on their favorite surface. Cerundolo plays Munar, who he destroyed at the Argentina Open in Feb. Jarry is on a seriously good run, beating Dimitrov, Zverev, Ruud and Lajovic in Geneva last week. His opponent Dellien is on a bad run, losing plenty, behind a very weak serve. My 3rd player is Azarenka to beat Andreescu. An interesting article regarding Andreescu's state of mind. https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/may/27/bianca-andreescu-interview-tennis-french-open Some of these big name players are just not 'there' mentally. Konteveit, Pliskova, Kvitova, Andreescu are all very well off financially. The 1st 3 all lost already, and they played poorly. Pliskova was useless against Stephens, Tactically just awful. Konteveit not much better against Pera. Like a zombie on the court, with no preparation. , Kvitova was awful against Bronzetti yesterday. At the most important times just so wild. She hit some balls in the back fence, and is as slow as a cart horse. She makes Harry Maguire look fast, which is saying something. I think a motivated Azarenka wins, probably easily after a close 1st set, against someone she matches up well with. #4 is Krecikova who plays Lesia Tsurenko. Tsurenko is a reasonable player, but her serve is just so weak. Krecikova looks solid. She is a consistent winner, especially in early rounds of majors. Azarenka and Krecikova as a double almost even money. As a 4 legged bet the odds are 2 to 1. My 5th pick is Clara Burel to beat Sorribes Tormo. I watched quite a few of the Strasbourg matches, and Burel played very well. She is a former junior world #1, and will have strong home support. She is small in stature but is figuring out how to beat, bigger stronger (physically) players. She hits a looping, deep ball which will be difficult, especially on a warm Summer day. She beat Pera, Cirstea and Kanepi in Strasbourg, and lost in 3 to Svitolina. My 6th pick is Linda Noskova to beat Danka Kovinic. Kovinic coming off a retirement against Krecikova in the Italian Open (while being thrashed 6-2 4-1), probably still has a slight injury worry. Call me a cynic but she is Just in Paris to collect the 1st round losers cheque. Good luck today.

Was watching the end of the Noskova v Osorio match. Just awful tie break from Noskova, against somebody that she should beat 8 times in 10. Her volleying is just pathetic. Missed 4 times in the breaker and they were all sitters. I did not have a bet on her, but odds around 1.28 for the Noskova win are a joke. It's the 2nd lousy match she has played in a couple of weeks. Losing in Aussie open qualifiers was the 1st. So inconsistent and unfocused against bog average opponents. Basically untouchable below odds of 7 to 10.

Really nothing in it, just a couple of points here and there. Was very impressed with Sabalenka's serve. It held up, except for 1 double on match point. In previous years she would have served 10 doubles in the 3rd set. Probably with Swiatek, these two will form a very tough trio, and could dominate woman's tennis for years. Maybe just below are Garcia and Badosa. The balls are quite an issue at the AO. Dunlop are making a strange ball that fluffs up quickly (4 games). Big servers don't like it, as it slows the ball down through the air. But Djoko loves it. Just is perfect for his game. I am not a big fan of players who don't work hard on their game. Hey, you are a professional. You owe it to yourself to really work hard and improve constantly. Look at the players who have stayed similar in the last few years ... Medvedev (game hastotally stagnated and could even have gone backwards). De Minaur , Ruud, Rublev, Hurkacz, Cilic, Norrie, Berrettini, Carreno Busta. Their games are already maxed out. But I like the up and comers. Tiafoe, Fritz, Alcaraz, Rune. Alcaraz is really a rough diamond. His game is so raw, and when he smoothes it out and gets rid of the rough edges he will be phenomenal. He is #1 and he has enormous scope for improvement.There is so much more to come from them. And I gotta include Tsitsipas in this group. He is bigger and stronger, serving really well, backhand is better, net-play is developing, and moving very well for a big guy. Always had a couple of emotional issues, where he could lose his concentration and focus, but you can see the effort he has put in. Tsitsipas can cause an upset. It was strange yesterday to see Djokovic 5-1 in the 1st set and then barley get over the line. He is vulnerable, and the crowd will be more for Tsitsipas than him. I definitely think that at worst Tsitsipas wins a set. For me a small bet on Tsitsipas to win at 38 to 10 ... can't get too involved, have a mini tennis tournament tomorrow myself.

I don't think Rybakina moves well, but with both of them the game quality is dictated by the serve. It's such a different game to that of the average woman player, who battles to hold serve. Not a blowout either way, but Sabalenka has not lost a match all year, and has not dropped a set this tournament. She also owns a 3-0 record against Rybakina.

Djoko has swept all before him. Only set lost was against a qualifier in round 2. Closest opponent he has played (in style to Paul), would be Gregor Dimitrov and he won 7-6 6-4 6-3. I expect a close 1st set, and then a similar score line here. I do like Sabalenka in the woman's. Only thing that was holding her back was the crazy double faults and she has worked hard and fixed it. She has the potential to win 2 majors this year. WImbledon will suite her serve and the US open will be similar to the Aussie. For me she is a better athlete than Rybakina, and she will enjoy the pace on the ball. Her serve has the potential to be as dominant a weapon as Serena's was for all those years.

If Khachanov can win the 2nd set it is def game on. He's been playing very well, looks strong and fit. He was excellent v Tiafoe. Mentally looks motivated and in the zone. It's 3-4 khachonov and this game is critical.

Nobody gives Paul a chance against Djoko, but it's just that in Aus, it suites Djoko perfectly. Like Nadal at the French. For me Paul has more chance against Djoko than De Minaur and Rublev. He has some weapons. Def a better serve than both of them. Not looking to get involved here, maybe a v small bet inlay.

It's Djokovic's version of the Karate kid. Wax on (De Minaur), Wax off (Rublev) ...

I actually think Rublev would be great company and a very interesting drinking buddy. You can see he is a smart guy, and he's definitely gonna raise the level of conversation. It would always be an interesting night out!

I gotta write this because I don't like Djoko. For me Rublev is a better version of De Minaur. But quite a similar game style. But realistically none of these players (maybe Khachanov) can go toe-to-toe with Djoko from the baseline. They all try and take him on in a game style that is so suited for his style. Was hoping that Tiafoe (just dynamic and different) or Fritz (with the huge server) would get there because I think they have the ability and weapons to take him deep. The others, I don't give them much of a chance. You know exactly what's coming from Rublev. Same old game that probably fails. At some point he's gonna get so frustrated and go bananas. Not if, just when. If Djoko plays similar to how he played against de Minaur, then this could be a blow out. For me Djoko with too many guns, slowly constricts and then finishes Rublev off. I like the under 35.5 games here, in what I think is a straight sets 6-4 6-3 6-2/3 stroll for Djoko.

Would have been better if you forgot to bet it. For me Aussie open has been a bad betting experience. Feel kind of cursed, starting in the 1st round with Berrettini, who missed an egg on match point, going on to Kokkinakis with 2 match points, Wawrinka blowing it against Molcan, onto Tiafoe (6-1 up in the 4th set tiebreak), Fritz losing to Popyrin, Hurkacz being 5-5 15-40 up in the 5th and losing to Korda, Alexandrova playing beyond awful, De Minaur reeling off 10 of 12 games just as I cashed out. and the cherry on the top , Pegula, who just played terrible tennis. She got annoyed and gave up which is really really poor. There were so few underdog betting opportunities for my software, and a sample size of 9 matches is useless. Could win 7 and think you have won the lottery, or lose 7 and feel that it does not work. Sometimes just easier to make a strategic withdrawal (called a retreat) , sleep in late and just observe the freak results show from afar. I'll be happy when the Aussie open is done. Absolutely no doubt in my mind, that lower quality events, have far bigger scope, and way more opportunities for betting on underdogs. Nobody really cares when they come to play a 125K event. It is just better than the practice courts, and have players ranked between 50 and 140 opens up all kinds of possibilities.

I swear I had a 2 pound bet on Rune to win, onto Paul and de Minaur to beat Djoko. Doomed him, but he had so many chances it was insane. To lose your serve to love serving at 6-5 final set is a terrible effort. To blow the tiw breaker from a dominant position also a shocker (thanks Tiafoe 6-1 up and he blew that breaker and the match as well). Boy, did Djokovic dismantle De Minaur. Absolutely smashed him. That pointless running after every ball, with no real plan, and such a limited game, totally shown up. Is his coach Darren Cahill ... who also could not get a tune out of Simona Halep? These people keep showing up with the same (limited) weapons expecting things to change. Change the plan. Honestly, it's moronic. For me the only two players that have the power to ward off the curse of 'neilovan' are Pegula and Pliskova. Both have been unbelievable, dispatching opponents with relentless ease. Pegula looks like she finally believes she belongs. I think if you had to meet her, she would be quite down to earth. She has a maturity and understanding of her own situation and game ATM. I think she sends Azarenka on her way in straights. She has demolished her opponent in 6 out of 8 sets played, winning all in straight sets. Pliskova looks absolutely fit, lean and mean and is playing super tennis. Doesn't matter what your age is. That feeling of being super fit is amazing for the mind and body. I think she destroys Linette (who really moves badly to the backhand side, and was a bundle of nerves against Alexandrova. ). Open up the court to the forehand, and then take advantage of the backhand. I think you see that pattern all match. Under 20 games here. Just too much power hitting from Pliskova. Similar to Pegula dominating her opponents in 5/8 sets and not dropping a set so far. For me those two will be in the final. Ostapenko does not convince me at all. Has had a very easy passage through, with no top quality opponents (Yastremska, Bondar, Baindl, Gauff (who was playing poorly in my opinion ... she can't win anything until she sorts out her forehand. At the elite level her forehand is as obvious a bad shot as Berettinis backhand) . Ostapenko went through a stage where she lost a lot of sets quite badly, and I think a repeat is on the cards here. Rybakina has a crazy weapon in the woman's game that so few players have. Her serve is a dominant 1-2 setup weapon and if it works (no reason why it should not) its a done deal. Once she is winning that serve easily, she can go to town on the return games. Then the game flows and a demolition happens. For me the only tricky match is Vekic and Sabalenka. Will Sabalenka's serve disintegrate when the pressure is on? I think she has been working hard on it. That weird open racquet in the middle of the motion (behind the back) is gone. To make a slight change like that requires excellent coaches, and a mountain of practice. Serve 500 serves every day for a month, and see how that shot improves (why don't woman pros's do that?) Practice and muscle memory makes the serve so much better and far more repeatable. Sabalenka's serve holds up here and she overpowers Vekic. from the Guardian...https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/jan/23/aryna-sabalenka-serves-up-a-storm-at-australian-open-after-biomechanics-help “I was, in that moment, open for whatever. I was just like, ‘Please, someone help me to fix this f--k--g serve,’” said Sabalenka." I got two phone calls today. One from Pliskova and another from Pegula. Both said they will pay me not to bet on them, and pleaded for me to remove any money I had staked on them. Both said they are avid Punters lounge visitors. They both exhibited a lot of desperation and were really pleading with me to bet $2 on Sabalenka ... ???

For what my opinion is worth. At the moment if Djoko played Djoko I would still get it wrong. De Minaur will have the crowd well behind him, and it is something that Djoko really does not like. It does not appeal to his narcissistic side. I also think that De Minaur has the ability to outlast Djoko here. He doesn't have the weapons or the game, but a slightly injured Djoko may just be vulnerable, to a really long, gruelling match. So I imagine endless rallies with these slow dunlop balls, De Minaur chasing everything down, and hopefully Djoko being beaten. In the ongoing match between Rublev and Rune, I think Rune is gonna win. Too similar in style and he is just better than Rublev, who can get so mad at himself.