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neilovan

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Everything posted by neilovan

  1. Watched the Kalinskaya v Stephens match. Kalinskaya was down 3-4 3rd set, and faced 2 break points. SHe kept her head, survived and landed up winning the last 3 games. She is an excellent athlete. Strong and very well balanced. She has an excellent backhand that she hits up the line, which just kills opponents. I think she wins against Paolini. I think tommorow's 4th round mens matches are all in the balance. Medvedev is not convincing. I don't know how he got past Ruusuvouri because its a match he should have lost. Ruusuvouri didn't believe he could win. It was pretty odd. His opponent Nuno Borges was certainly not expected to beat Dimitrov, so I feel this will be a lot closer than people expect. A close match here and I think over 30.5 games is worth a bet at 1.90 I think Hurkacz has his hands fully with Cazaux. For me Rune a much better player, yet Cazaux just put him away easily. I think it will be a relatively long match (both have excellent serves), but I'm taking Cazaux to win here. The kid has that bullet proof confidence of youth and I give him the edge when it comes to serving, which could prove the deciding factor in the breakers. I gave Norrie no chance to beat Ruud. I didn't see the game. I don't know if Ruud just had a bad day, but it is a surprise result. Norrie is better than he looks. He has this weird style ... like a far more physically capable Mannarino. I think if he gets his tactics right against Zverev he can win. For me, Zverev has a terrible transition game (moving off the baseline, and hitting a midcourt volley or half volley). He can't hit through that ball, and he can't get his tall frame low enough. On the baseline he looks amazing ... that 2 handed backhand is as good as Djoko's. But in transition play, he can't get his big frame low enough to hit those shots effectively. Its a glaring weakness in his game. Over 38.5 games at 1.83 I have not been impressed with Alcaraz. He has so much talent and physicality, but I don't see the expected improvements in his game. He still looks like an unpolished diamond. I watched the Kecmanovic match against Paul. Paul had 2 match points in the 4th set break, yet still lost it 9-7. 5th set Kecmanovic destroyed him. This is a very strong, underrated opponent who can give plenty of problems. Over 30.5 games at 1.83
  2. For me a very difficult, unpredictable Aussie open. How many people see Dimitrov losing to Borges, or Norrie beating an in form Ruud? Regardless of how well Tsitsipas plays, his 1 handed backhand is just such an average shot. Fritz can more than match him, and the key matchup between his 2 handed backhand and Tsitsi's 1 hander may be the difference. Serving wise, Fritz has the edge, and I think he just comes out on top. I fancy de Minaur to beat Rublev. Andre is just too emotional. He gets so infuriated on the court, and it distracts and wastes energy. The crowd will largely be against Rublev, and I think this 'Davis Cup' type atmosphere will have an effect. Two very similar players, but for me de Minuar has the edge physically. He has also played 9 sets, dropping more than 3 games in a set just once. So he should be a lot fresher. He cleaned up Arnaldi and Coboli, and was done quickly with Raonic in a W/O in 1st round.
  3. Maybe just his serve action. Seems taller listed at 1.83m which is only 6ft
  4. Wow. Djoko played better but I was surprised at how meek Etcheverry was. I don't think he had a break point in the match, and hit so many nothing balls straight down the middle.
  5. I think Djokovic is vulnerable. Realistically he has played 2 rank outsiders. Prizmic is ranked around 175 and Popyrin is 48. The Djoko of old would just win both these matches 3-0. I think age has caught up with him a little, and he has an extra 2 sets in his legs that he didn't need. For me Etcheverry is much better than both Popyrin and Prizmic. He has won both his Aussie Open matches in straight sets. I went to work in Argentina in the early 2000's and was amazed at how many clay court facilities there were (in Buenos Aires). Lot's of kids hitting balls, facilites for free, coaches provided. As a kid you could play hours a day for no cost. It's a system that produces very solid, strong players. Growing up and playing on clay does that. High levels of fitness, and solid ground strokes (as the ball bounces slower). For me Djoko is not the greatest player ever, but he is the greatest 'recoverer'. He understands his body, and how to recover properly to 100%. Most of his opponents don't. For me there is no doubt that this recovery is slower now, at his more advanced age. It is less of a factor. A slightly fatigued Djoko at age 36 vs a rock solid 24 year old in the prime of his life... I think this goes to the wire and Etcheverry is worth a punt at 11-1. The handicap +7.5 also looks OK at 1.83 I was super impressed with Arthur Cazaux against Rune. This kid can play. Strong and tall, with a cannon for a serve. Moves very well and has a solid temprament. Rune is tricky, but he swatted him aside. It is a top win against a top 10 opponent. Not sure why he is the underdog against Griekspoor on Sat but I think he wins here. I watched the Pegula v Burel match, and it was amazing how Burel just wiped her out. Pegula got so frustrated and her body language and mind just crumbled. And it is no fluke. Burel was world junior #1, so she has game, very good technique and the ability to problem solve on court. The only thing that was slighly lacking was physical strength, which will grow as she gets older. I think she wins quite easily against Dodin in the all French affair. Will continue to back Navarro, and I think she wins against Yastremska. Just on such a winning streak, against an inconsistent opponent. Burel and Navarro as a double for me.
  6. Zakharova had 3 break points at 4-4 (in a set where they had lost serve 6/8 times). Really should have won it, but both of them have limited serves
  7. Game on with Tomljanovic. No love lost there.3rd set should be interesting. Medvedev also battling with Ruusuvouri, and Hurkacz down 2 -1 . Maybe the overcast conditions slowing the ball down a bit.
  8. Tough pickings this Aussie Open. Bookmakers are not giving much away. Crazy low odds all over the place. I would rather be taking a few outsiders as singles than betting a very low piced fav. I do like Mertens for the straight win against Kostyuk. Kostyuk playing better, but still losing against the players she is expected to lose against. It's like her game is good, but she can't get to the next level. For me any woman who is playing 'atypical tennis' needs attention. That is solid 1st serve and good 1st strike tennis, and Mertens falls into this group. I'm not feeling to much strength for Haddad-Maia. Played 3 warm up games and has been properly beaten twice. I don't think her confidence is soaring. Date Winner Odds Loser Odds Score 2024-01-15 Haddad Maia B. 1.25 Fruhvirtova L. 4.03 6-2 3-6 6-2 2024-01-08 Pavlyuchenkova A. 2.21 Haddad Maia B. 1.66 6-3 6-4 2023-12-30 Swiatek I. 1.12 Haddad Maia B. 6.04 6-2 6-2 Her opponent is probably the best junior player in the world. Born in 2007 (lol), Alina Korneeva could cause a shock here. She qualified and is on a 4 match winning streak, beating Sorribes Tormo in the previous round (3 sets coming from a set down against a road runner). So she has the physicality. Korneeva is like Juncheng Shang - top ITF junior in the world, winning junior Grand Slam at French and Australia. I'm not too impressed with Jabeur. Looks slightly undercooked to me and is up against an opponent (Mira Andreeva) who is in great form. She had a seriously good Brisbane international. I quite like the 6-1 and 6-2 sets. For me it indicates very good ground strokes, and somebody who is getting on top of opponents, and then putting them away. For me Andreeva with the straight win. Date Winner Odds Loser Odds Score 2024-01-15 Andreeva M. 1.17 Pera B. 5.11 7-5 6-2 2024-01-12 Andreeva M. 1.56 Collins D. 2.31 7-6 6-1 2024-01-05 Noskova L. 3.96 Andreeva M. 1.25 7-5 6-3 2024-01-04 Andreeva M. 1.08 Rodionova A. 8.01 6-1 6-1 2024-01-03 Andreeva M. 1.81 Samsonova L. 1.99 6-2 6-1 2023-12-31 Andreeva M. 1.22 Shnaider D. 4.26 6-2 6-3 For a low odds 2 legged fav I like Emma Navarro, who is on a serious run of form. Only around 4 to 10 but it looks like 1 way traffic to me against Cocciaretto. My 2nd leg would be Shelton (who had a comfortable 1st round) over O'Connell who had to win in 5, winning the last 2 sets. Not sure O'Connell will have recovered, as a tough 5 setter is a leg killer so early in a tournament. Date Winner Odds Loser Odds Score 2024-01-13 Navarro E. 2.09 Mertens E. 1.74 6-1 4-6 7-5 2024-01-12 Navarro E. 1.36 Yuan Y. 3.17 6-4 6-3 2024-01-11 Navarro E. 1.26 Tomova V. 3.80 4-6 6-3 6-2 2024-01-10 Navarro E. 1.48 Frech M. 2.66 6-3 6-3 2024-01-09 Navarro E. 1.68 Burel C. 2.18 4-6 6-3 6-3 2024-01-06 Gauff C. 1.10 Navarro E. 7.05 6-3 6-1 2024-01-05 Navarro E. 1.78 Martic P. 2.03 6-4 6-3 2024-01-03 Navarro E. 1.22 Avanesyan E. 4.21 6-1 6-2 2024-01-01 Navarro E. 1.40 Fruhvirtova L. 2.97 2-6 6-4 6-2 When you see a player who is beating players, who themselves are winning matches, it is a clear show of strength. Good luck.
  9. Somewhat of a strange results day today. Linette really should have won. Served for thematch twice, and had a couple of match points. Burel was all over Navarro but just couldn't seal the deal. Got annoyed at the end of the match and lost 9 straight points at the end. Is the Kooyong Classic just too risky to bet on. Nobody cares?
  10. I think Villa beat Man United tomorrow. Villa have played 8 games against the top 10 teams. Won 6 lost 2. They are so impressive, and I would like to see them go on and do a Leicester and win the whole thing. United are just atrocious. Ten hag has painted himself into a corner. Buying Antony for 82m has been a disaster. The guy is just outta his league, but if he sits him down, ten Hag looks like a clown for buying him. They buy Onana for 44m and Villa buy Martinez for 17m. Go figure! Against the top teams United have been atrocious this year. They have taken 1 point from a possible 21. 7 matches 1 draw. Fialed to score 5 times, and outscored in these matches 14-2. Seriously, that is pathetic. It's like the joke going around " A Man United fan and a Chelsea fan meet in hell to watch the game..." . United are just awful, and I am a fan. Watching them is a brutal waste of time. I think Newcastle drop points against Forest. They just look out on their feet, and outta gas. For me the 2 away wins as a small double are worthwhile.
  11. Hi All, For me two clear opportunities this weekend. Having watched most of the games (except the blowouts). Argentina are just not good. Sloppy with the ball, scrummaging badly, stupid mistakes, slow loose forwards and terrible with the restarts. I thought they just had an off day against England, but they were rubbish against Japan as well. I think Wales, who are solid, will beat them easily. Prob 10+ points. The Boks will be far better against France, than they were against Ireland. Against Ireland they were quite poor in the red zone, blowing 4 of 5 good chances. They also went for posts when they could have kicked for the corner 3 times. The only thing they did well against Ireland was defend. The other aspects of the game are just expected from a Bok side. Pollard will be kicking, and Lukhanyo Am (for me the best center in rugby) will be back. I expect the team performance to rise considerably (from a 6.5 to a 9+). They have France's number and I expect a 7+ points win. Good luck
  12. Why can't one of my horses quit when they are injured? MUchova losing 6-1 in the final set to someone she should beat 9 times out of 10. Cannot catch a break with this stuff. You tell me Ruud, Muchova, Korda and Sakkari are going to lose in the 1st round ... I say Impossible, how much you wanna bet 🤐
  13. Quite a strange day yesterday to see Korda and Sakkari get beaten. Sakkari with her second 1st round loss at a major in a row. Looked to be in control and then fell apart against Kostyk. I do see a day of upsets today. I think (as Smiles noted) that Svitolina beats Mertens. Bencic beats Collins who has hardly played any on grass. For me Karatsev is on the comeback. Probably overplayed and burnt himself out for 18 months when he finally cracked the top 70 or so. Guy looked mentally frazzled and was beating himself. He looks far calmer on the court now, and I think he posses a real threat to Rublev. Not going crazy here, just a small bet on Karatsev win. You look at the order of play, and the fare on Centre and #1 court is rubbish. 5 lousy matches. As a spectacle only the Murray v Tsitsipas match deserves it's place. Would you want a ticket for court #1? Not me. For me match of the day is Francisco Cerundolo versus Jiri Lehecka. Both excellent, and it is one that can go either way. Nothing to choose between them, and probably the over games is the way to go. I think Tsitsipas beats Andy Murray. Thiem was a much tougher game, but he showed some fortitude in getting through that. Age catches up with everyone and a young, good opponent will hurt Andy. I also don't think Murray can pressurize the Tsitsipas backhand as much as a taller player. I think Fernandez has a good chance against Garcia. She has to keep her focus and composure against a not brilliant opponent. Garcia seems to win but never convincingly. AS a 'bet the house banker' I would go for Tiafoe v Stricker. Stricker came back from 1-4 down 5th set yesterday to win 7-5 against Popyrin, and he will be feeling it. My low priced fav 5 legged bet would be Tiafoe, Muchova, Rybakina, Dimitrov and Ruud which gives about 14 to 10. Muchova just too athletic, Rybakina too good behind her serve, Dimitrov excellent on grass and Ruud very solid.
  14. As a coach you can't just turn a single handed backhand into a two handed one. It will take months , possibly years. It is to do with the reach and the twist of the core muscles. It is like trying to teach a world class swimmer who does breaststroke to now swim olympic standard butterfly.
  15. It seems like Kvitova pulled out of the tournament?
  16. I think it is quite a tricky matchup. Do they care? I don't think this is important to them. Was just a back up plan if last week failed. Is one player exhausted from last week and the travel/acclimation? Maybe, perhaps both slightly tired (more mental than physical). Do they want a break before WImbledon? YES! They would definitely prefer a rest up, move down to London, and and practise/rest up for the week. I may take a small bet early, and then lump it on after the 1st set. I cannot see this match going long or 3 sets. Whoever wins the 1st set wins. Thinking about it, for me the pre match bet is the under 22.5 games at 8 to 10, and a lump on the 1st set winner.
  17. It is quite a rare thing to see exceptional woman's tennis matches. Most of the stuff is pretty average. Double faults, unforced errors and a one dimensional game. I have seen 3 excellent matches in the last couple of months. Jabuer v Danilovic (French Open), Jabuer v Muchova (French Open), and the final in Berlin between Kvitova and Vekic. Vekic actually had a big chance second set. Served for it at 5-4 and then lost it in a breaker. But the tennis in Berlin was top class. Very few unforced errors and exceptional hitting of the ball. Kvitova in this form will take some beating. Her serve is dynamite, and she has tremendous power off both sides. It is the best I have seen her play in years. For me she destroys Ostapenko today. Then you compare this match to yesterday's encounter between Pliskova and Mertens. The gap in quality is miles. Pliskova and Mertens played a match of 'worse' and 'worser'. Mertens had 10 double faults in the 1st set, and neither of them could hit the ball. Pegula has played one match (doubles) on grass and may be a little undercooked for Zheng. I am also not convinced regarding Boulter v Martic. Boulter won a tournament but you look at the quality of the field and it was weak. (Burrage 131, Watson 195, Dart 143, Snigur 157, Appelton 230+ so very low ranking opponents).
  18. Looking at Mallorca qualifying. Would be very surprised if Rinderknech and Harris don't win their matches. Class of the qualifying field. For me a small double here. Rinderknech just lost a little confidence on the clay, but behind a strong serve he is very tough on grass. Harris is a solid player, prob top 30/40 when his injury settles down and the rankings work themselves out. My two big bets of the day are Alcaraz over De Minaur and Sasnovich over Masarova. Sasnovich on a strong run, and De Minaur will really battle with Alcaraz who is a better athlete (which will freak him out), and a better player. Two Upsets: I just don't rate Petra Kvitova anymore. On grass, her poor movement is covered over by a strong tricky serve. But if Vekic makes returns and gets in play, Kvitova will struggle. At 1.44 she is just way to short, against an opponent in the form of her life. Not going crazy but a small starting bet on Vekic here. If Vekic starts to put pressure on the Kvitova serve early (ie. 2 of 1st 3 Kvitova serve games going to deuce), I'll make a much larger one. Just want to wait and see in-play. Elize Cornet plays Martina Trevisioan at Bad Homburg, and I think Trevisioan has a real shot here. Not sure why Cornet is so short.
  19. Rune looked slightly injured. Watson winning and her opponent quits. That is 9 of those retired when winning to 0 retired when losing bets.
  20. Alcaraz is really unbelievable. His adjustment to grass has been swift. Gregor is a very tough opponent and he beat him easily in the end. He was also excellent against Lehecka. What I noticed is how clinical he was on the big points. This kid is beyond special, a once in a generational talent. He is so ridiculously athletic. AS well as Korda is playing, and he was not great against Norrie, I just think he gets wiped out here. The development of Alcaraz is just so rapid and exceptional. Korda didn't play very well against Norrie (served badly and was not clinical), and i he repeats that performance he gets crunched here. I cannot see beyond Rune in his match against De Minuar. ALex played Murray and Schwartzman, both who are not world class opponents at the moment. Easy wins. Against Mannarino he battled and I think he comes up short here. Rune is very deceptive. It looks like he drifts in matches, but again, very clinical when it counts. I also think that Vekic beats Sakkari in Berlin. Sakkari playing much better but Vekic right on top of her game. Definitely an outside pick for Wimbledon. Eastbourne qualifying I like three bets. Watson to beat Putintseva. Watson very solid on grass and her run continues. Frech to beat Martincova (I think this works out but will be close) Bogdan to beat Udvardy (I like Anna Bogdan. Very solid player, with no QUIT/checkout button.
  21. What happened with Sinner, retiring? For me that is 8 winning bets blown up by a retiree. Have not had one where my losing selection quit.
  22. The first tournaments have lots of surprises. If you go to tennis-data.co.uk and download the years excel for 2022 (ATP and WTA). Then you can check the fav... B365W < B365L will give you all the favorite winners, the opposite >= will give you the fav losses. Then look at the win rate. It is pretty clear that the 1st tournaments are difficult. By Wimbledon, the win rate has gone back up by +10% as the good players get used to it.
  23. As for Queens today, what a lineup. 4 terrific contests. My #1 pick is Korda to win, but Mannarino is going to give De Minaur a very tough time. He is very deceptive and skillful. He is stringing at very low tensions, and this gives the ball oomph. Look's like he has not hit it, but the strings and racquet are doing the work. Also, the left hander throws up a difficult serving conundrum, to the add court. They swing the ball out wide and then hit the return down the other line. Can de Minaur get the tactics right here. I think Mannarino edges this one. The Queens surface definitely better than Halle. Halle it looks under prepared and slightly bumpy, with wear. That will make the life of the big server easier, as they get more free points. This givess Bublik a much better chance against Sinner and Griekspoor against Rublev. I think Bublik can take a set and Rublev will lose to Griekspoor.
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