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neilovan

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Everything posted by neilovan

  1. I think if the after match thoughts help you learn, and not make the same mistake again, then they are worthwhile.
  2. So it's kind of interesting. If you take French open 2021, ATP with favorites win odds between between 0.02 and 0.13 you get odds around even money on a -5.5 game handicap bet. But there were 22 winners and only 5 losers in 2021, and this type of bet would have won money every year of the last 6 years. Looking at Ruud today, -5.5 is even money to cover, and the the probability is that he will do it. I will change the viz to let a user select all tournaments, and choose a surface, and it will show the results for all clay court matches (when selected)
  3. He's actually a great player to bet against. The effect of losing matches from winning positions lingers, and is devastating. It's like a bad beat in poker. SOme people it festers and others just shrug it off. Just make a list (if you have the stats which you can get from tennis-data.co.uk in csv form), of every player that bombs out after losing a close set. They are weak mentally. And similarly, look at players that win set 2 after losing a close set 1 (go and see Bianca Andreescu in ASB classic 2019, playing Venus Williams ... loses 1st set 7-6, comes back and beats her 6-3 6-1). 7 months later she's winning a US Open. Was just messing around with Tableau and made a games handicap checker. You just put in the starting (bet365) odds range for the favorite, and then see how many times the fav beats the games handicap (choose year range, tournament and what handicap spread). I posted it online here; https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/neilvanasselt/viz/tennisgameshandicapping/Dashboard1?publish=yes Quite interesting that the French Open and WImbledon have the lowest handicap cover rates, which indicates that players can't make a smooth transition to grass and clay. I can't calculate profit/loss numbers because I don't have the starting match odds for the handicaps.
  4. De Minaur playing a guy he should slaughter, and he can't win a point. How excellent! Hopefully if he has an injury he retires. But losing a set 6-0 should not have a huge effect. It is not like anything has been invested in it. Medvedev losing to Gasquet is also like a cold day in hell.
  5. They also understand the game totally, so they are very selective regarding which tournaments they play, what points they are defending etc etc. Very similar to a golf handicap cheat who knows exactly what he can score in every round, to still maintain a high handicap.
  6. Also no hunger, they are too well off financially. Just going through the motions, collecting 250K a year and playing out the last few years.
  7. Fognini had an injury time out. Heaven forbid that one of my runners retires when losing. I have bet against Radacanu 3 times and every time she was losing, she quit the match. It's a joke that a journeyman like Kokkinakis wins here ... his game is so limited. Question: How many points will Radacanu lose when she gets beaten 1st or 2nd round at the US open? I think she got 40 from the qualifiers and 2000 for winning, but if she cannot defend her win (as expected), she could lose close to 1900 points. WOuld put her down in the 60 world ranking bracket.
  8. I think I was trying to say that he probably looks up to where Zverev is, at a similar age. But no big deal. Baez and Fognini need to get into gear 😬
  9. I see Fognini not playing so well. Hopefully he wakes up from his siesta soon. Even half awake he should be good enough. Maybe he doesn't like playing on Tuesdays?
  10. So both longshots lost in 3. Martin was actually up 2-0 in final set and Ubanks lost in 10 point breaker. So 3 of 4 small bets lost 😆 Just need the 4 big bets of the day (Baez, De Minaur, Fognini and Lui to all win)
  11. I think there is value in Baez, because he has won 9 of his last 10 matches. Won 5 in Estoril winning tournament against very good players. Won 3 of 4 in Italian open and 1 match here. Anyone winning 9 of 10 is on a seriously good streak (especially in tennis), where even having a reasonable positive win record is so difficult. I think he is 15 and 5 this year on clay. I will go quite a large bet on Baez and de Minaur as a double today
  12. Maybe the wrong words, but definitely someone he would look up too. Baez is 21 and Zverev 25.
  13. He's gonna be very good (Baez). Even in Rome he was already very close to Zverev. He wins that breaker and the upset is on (and he lost it 8-6). Zverev just had the experience to play the big points and moments, better. But it is not easy playing one of your idols ... it has to have some effect. But having said that, you actually learn a lot from losing. Psychologically, emotionally, and practically ... and in a crazy way a few defeats don't really hurt you as long as you go forward taking positives from them. Wins or losses are just so short term ... the trick is to stay on your path and keep to the long term plan.
  14. FRENCH OPEN QUALIFYING: I find these times between main tournaments quite tricky. French open qualifying is difficult. It's simple, lower ranked players are more inconsistent. I think the trick to winning here is to find players that have just missed making it into the main draw. You need a source of information to make a 1st selection of possible picks. So look at something like this; https://www.atptour.com/en/rankings/singles?rankDate=2022-5-16&countryCode=all&rankRange=101-200 and find those players ranked 100 to 165 that are not automatically in the main draw. These are the best of the rest. SO you take a guy like Fernando Verdasco playing Damir Dzumhur. Verdasco ranked 103 and Dzumhur ranked 160, yet Verdasco is at 1.8 and Dzumhur at 1.9 . For me, Verdasco is great value based on being 57 spots higher in the rankings. I don't particularly like him (abusing the ball kids), but I think he wins. Paul Jubb (ranked 266) versus Christopher Eubanks ranked 156, yet Eubanks is almost at the same price, and on bet365 Eubanks is a the underdog at 1.9 . Eubanks for me here. My 3rd bet here is Andrej Martin to beat Luca Nardi. Martin up 44 places in the rankings to a position of 130, while Nardi is ranked at 200. Yet Nardi is a big favorite, which really does not make much sense. I'll take all 3 as small stake singles tomorrow, and as a (smaller stake) treble. I didn't look at the WTA rankings but you can do similar. ATP GENEVA If Fognini half shows up he wipes Kokkinakis off the court. Fognini is just one of those crazy talented players ... I call them showbinkies! Hitting that off the charts incredible shot, is sometimes more important than winning (to them). Last tournament he lost to Sinner, but for a reasonable period he just hit the ball incredibly. Winners from everywhere. He's just gotta be focused for 90 minutes and this match is done. Kokkinakis simply can't live with him. ATP LYON De Minaur is going to beat Humbert. A perfect style matchup for him. Essentially get 90 minutes of match practice against an opponent that can't beat you. Not so crazy about the odds of 1.4 on De Minaur, but I expect him to cover the -3.5 game handicap easily (odds 1.8). Humbert has zero confidence at the moment. He has not been beaten in recent weeks ..., he's been bludgeoned, and it has to have negative subconscious implications. WTA FRENCH QUALIES Super dangerous, and a good place to lose money. Best stay away from this. WTA RABAT Gotta go with the inform youngster, Claire Lui to win in straight sets tomorrow against Rakhimova. Lui should have plenty of confidence and be in a good head space, which should deliver a victory here. I think being a very very good junior player really helps, because they get used to winning, and it keeps them level headed (they know they are only at the beginning of their pro career journey) .
  15. I don't know if it makes a huge difference as they water the courts after every match. Heavy overhead and damp or humid conditions will have an effect on the flight and the bounce of the ball (as when Soderling beat Nadal at Roland Garros).
  16. I think there a a few matches worth taking today. Djoko looks very good. Only issue is a mental one, where he loses a little focus ... but as for hitting the ball, he looks great. For me the key matchup is backhand cross court, where the Tsitsipas (1 handed) backhand will not hold up. Djoko too consistent, patient, powerful and accurate here. Just for fun, go and find a youtube video of Djoko doing backhand rotations with a medicine ball (https://www.facebook.com/TennisLegendOfficial/videos/novak-djokovic-medecine-ball-workout/10153373516061806/). Holy cow ... Crazy strong, I get tired from watching him. Djoko will pound him into the ground there, and will win a relatively close match. Jabeur is on borrowed time in this tournament. Should have been beaten by Sakkari, and even yesterday Kasatkina was serving at 5-4 deciding set. Kasatkina gave it away dropping serve twice in a row and losing 7-5 in the decider. Jabeur probably quite tired, after two 3 setters in a row, while Swiatek comes into this match fresh, after a 6-1 6-2 demolition of Sabalenka. For me this match is an absolute no-contest. Swiatek will move better, serve better, hit the ball better, and be stronger mentally and fresher physically. First set is probably crucial, but when Swiatek wins it, there is NO WAY that Jabeur can come back (of course the odds will be miniscule). I don't like the starting -5.5 handicap, but if/when Swiatek wins the 1st set, the 2nd may just be one way traffic (so maybe an inplay bet here). I would be going Swiatek in 2 sets (1.5). As mentioned before I see Claire Lui is in the final of the WTA in Paris, played Haddad Maia. I am happy with a smallish bet on her winning here (at odds of even money). I'll take her as a single and Djoko and Swiatek as a double. I'm off to play tennis (8.30 am kickoff). 4 tough sets of doubles, then some breakfast with the guys. Weather looks perfect. Great morning ahead 😁
  17. If Djoko plays like this he is basically unbeatable. Got everything. Serve is soo good when he needs it. His ability to hit that two handed backhand is amazing, and his court coverage is incredible. Just gotta see the French open draw, and if him and Alcaraz are in different main sections you can call it for the final. Even for the 1st 4 rounds you can probably take Djoko/Alcaraz/Swiatek as a treble in every round, and come the quarters they will all be in the draw. Each of them are unbelievably difficult to beat.
  18. I thought Auger Aliasimme played really well yesterday, but Djoko was fantastic (and I don't like him). He hit the ball incredibly, took his chances and countered power with more power. Excellent, high quality match. I don't think Ruud poses a similar challenge to Aliasimme, and I think Djoko wins in straight sets.
  19. If I look at my tennis betting over a year, there are a few weird patterns that you see; 1) It is almost impossible to find 3 winners in a treble at odds of 1.7+ 2) 75% of a 128 draw field (96 players out of 128) have lost after 2 rounds, and the better players are doing the majority of the winning here. SO look at players who win a high percentage of 1st round matches, as well as those who are losing the majority of their matches in the 1st/2nd round. Obviously a nice matchup is somebody that wins a lot versus someone who loses a lot. 3) As you get to 3rd round and beyond, it becomes tricky. Average players who get this far are doing something right this week. So for me, later rounds are far more tricky than early rounds. 4) A question. Can you make money taking low priced doubles? Basically taking a tiny % of players and backing them almost every time they step one the court, in the early rounds of big tournaments. I think you can. If you would back Djoko and Alcaraz as a double in every early round match they play, I think you win over a year. If you would take the top 10 (ATP), and take 5 doubles in the 1st and 2nd round of every big draw tournament, you would make money. 5) One of the biggest traps we face is something called the favorite longshot-bias. We tend to overvalue "longshots" and relatively undervalue favorites and it costs us in losses. Lol I just saw that Tiechmann retired and Bonzi lost, so I turned a profit instead of laying an egg. I think Auger-Aliasimme gets demolished by Djoko. Sure, he's been working hard on clay. Physically he looks in brilliant shape, but his game is just so limited (when compared to really talented players), with no finesse or variety. Perfect matchup for Djoko here.
  20. I was messing about and I clicked on cashout in the Kasatkina match. Made a little because of Kanepi, but blew a potential profit. Regarding the above, I hear you. I remember C Alcaraz getting beaten by Hugo Gaston (last year), which was pretty similar to Sakkari today, so I was owed some luck.
  21. Form has been very good on clay. She has real talent but is very inconsistent, with a good record against the top 25 (from 2018 about 7w 9l). I'm thinking a perfect style matchup, because Tiechmann just can't hurt her, and definitely won't overpower her. I'm def going Bonzi, Kanepi (on now) with, Kasatkina, Djoko, Swiatek (tomorrow) as a 5 legged freak.
  22. I had written it off as a loss. Insane. I don't know if that shadow over the court puts everyone off a bit. Jabeur seemed to play better when the shadow moved away. I'm keeping an eye on Clair Lui who won again today. She has too much class for that field. ANy opions on the Kasatkina match?
  23. Good grief, have you ever seen anything like the Jabeur v Sakkari match. Sakkari is a set and 2 breaks up. Was actually serving at set up 5-2 and 30-0 and manages to lose. Just insane, though I am not complaining.
  24. It tells you quite a bit about Andreescu, that she is brittle. Close 1st set, a lot invested, not strong enough mentally at the moment to handle it, and thus the 2nd set demolition.
  25. It's bizarre that Swiatek only wins the 1st set 7-6. Looks like bad advice, but she seems to get such momentum, and could easily win the 2nd set 6-0
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