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neilovan

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Everything posted by neilovan

  1. Money to be made in IPL with strong patterns. 11 games played so far. Venue Chidambaran . Team batting first has won 5/6 games played. At venue Wankhede stadium. Team batting second has won 4 of 5 games. Tomorrow game is at Wankhede (CSK v RR) . So for some reason team batting first has a big advantage. Two teams that are quite even, but I feel that Miller and Morris are finding their form and could well win another game for the Royals. Team batting first should be favorites, but need to wait for the toss. Not betting huge here. I would be betting inplay h
  2. Stupid decision making from Delhi in not bowling Ashwin for his 4th over, when lack of pace was the way to go. Stoinis bowled 1 over for 15 and Curran's last over was a shambles. He bowled a back of the hand slow ball that bounced 2/5th's of the way down the pitch. Just nonsense regarding dew on the ball for the last 4 overs, because they got a used dry ball 5 times (after every huge towering 6).
  3. Delhi will also get both Rabada and Nortje back, so will have a rock solid bowling attack.
  4. He plays like he is playing for England, but it doesn't work here as the squad is not so good.
  5. I think they will be an excellent team to oppose when playing against MI, RCB, SHR, DC.
  6. A few interesting developments regarding the IPL. Stokes is out, and this will seriously dent the RR chances of doing well. They need him like blood for the batting, but their real weakness is in bowling. No team conceded more runs in the last IPL (Round robin stage) than the Royals (2482 runs in 14 matches, for an average of 177 per match). In 15 of the 20 overs they were in the top 3 teams for runs conceded. Normally this would not be such a problem because this is a batting heavy side. But without Smith and Stokes, they are now lopsided, and will struggle. Looking at two critical
  7. The biggest thing that hurt RCB last IPL was the over reliance on Kohli and de Villiers. Paddikal had a great 1st season, but Finch was a blowout. On Morris they spent a fortune and they got little in return. The numbers for RCB in the middle overs just don't lie. RCB boundary percentage in range overs 8-14 (7 overs in total), they ranked bottom in this category 5 times and 3rd worst 3 times. Kohli and de Villers were digging them out of trouble, and regrouping too often. In the last IPL, from overs 6-14 RCB were in the bottom 3 teams for strike rate (9 overs or 45% of the game) in
  8. As a learning exercise I created some data visualizations for the 2020 IPL. There are 3 dashboards that will help you determine winners and losers in this IPL season. These dashboards are all free to use, so enjoy. I have not embedded them into any web pages, but will post the link. (1) dashboard is a scorecard analysis, with worms, over ranges and runs, and ball by ball analysis, with breakdown by batsman. You can just choose any match from the dropdown (https://public.tableau.com/profile/neilvanasselt#!/vizhome/IPLcricketMatchPerformanceScorecards1/Dashboard1) (2) Another da
  9. A Masters in April, is totally different to one in November. So I think you can discard much of the last Masters results. There are a few keys to scoring well on this course. Experience ... every year the Masters is played in the same place. So playing 20 to 30 Championship rounds there will definitely help a player. A rookie is just not going to win. The course has to set up for you. The problem this year (if you a right to left mover of the ball), is that right to left brings big bounce topspin. This year the fairways will run out. Left to right is far more controlled. So the powe
  10. Burnley v Fulham and Fulham v Sheffield United Sheffield United and WBA look to be heading to the Championship next season. The gap is too big to pull back. WBA just defend badly, and they simply need 2 or more goals to win every match. This is not the Allerdyce way. Sheffield United just need to play Man United every week ☺️, but they only get them twice a year. Fulham look good. They have been getting better game after game, and the win at Everton was no fluke. Now they have two games that will determine their season. They gotta be feeling great after collecting al
  11. Spurs v Liverpool Liverpool look like they have hit a brick wall. Goals have dried up, and there are issues upfront. Maybe some friction between Mane and Salah. Firmino is not playing well. Another huge factor is fatigue. I think the way in which Liverpool played last season has drained the team. I don't think the heavy metal, foot to the pedal football is sustainable through a long tough season. Liverpool were at it this way two season's in a row, and it looks a bridge to far. For me this could be the first of two away defeats this week for the reigning champions. West Ham will be l
  12. I watched that Villa game against City, and I thought Grealish was outstanding. His decision making was brilliant, and he was able to link the play so well. If he is half firing Villa win this going away. I think Ollie Watkins has a big night here. If Villa can run rings around Liverpool, and demolish Arsenal away (could have been 6-0 but was only 3), they could give Newcastle a proper beating.
  13. VILLA v NEWCASTLE Newcastle have slipped in previous weeks. Confidence is low, and momentum poor. In the last 7 league games they have picked up just 2 points. They have scored 1 goal in their last 5 games (same as Liverpool and Southampton). Villa have gone in the other direction. They played well against Man United and Man CIty and lost both games. Crazy, strange offside Man City goal swung the game. Not sure how someone can come back from 20 yards offside and then make a tackle and change the game. Just seems crazy. But the bottom line is that Villa were not outplayed. Slig
  14. WBA are becoming a typical Allerdyce team. They lost 1-0 to Man United (I think Fenandes dubious penalty before Allerdyce), and got away draws at Liverpool and Man City. So this was not an unexpected result. My feeling is Allerdyce would not have taken the job if he knew Albion could not escape relegation. I had the WBA win at odds of 6. Wolves cannot sell the likes of Jota, lose Jimenez and not get in replacements.
  15. Leeds United v Brighton 16/01/2021 Leeds will survive this season, playing a brand of football that is entertaining. At least they give it a go, and won't die wondering. Brighton play semi-decent football. Pretty well organised at the back, but so totally toothless up front. If they carry on doing this in the 2nd half of the season, Fulham (and WBA) will probably go past them and they will be relegated. They need to open the purse strings and buy a striker that can finish chances and score goals... or be relegated! I see more of the same against a strong running Leeds side. Pretty
  16. I really struggle to make sense of the league so far this season. Liverpool at home look invincible. Man United on the road are getting it done. Leicester v Man United Have been really impressed with United in the last couple of games. They were very good against Leeds, getting off to a flyer and winning easily. Most had really good games. OK, Leicester won at Spurs but Tottenham, contrary to popular belief, are not very good. Forget about poor old Dele Ali ... Jose needs to take a look at himself. Spurs are still playing a version of negative, dour, let's stop the opponent football
  17. Something really strange going on in the league this season. Most teams are defending quite poorly. Man City are winning ugly, not playing particularly well. Tottenham are playing Jose negative ball, which is a style that just does not suite a squad full of excellent players. Open the gates, let them play. DO you really want Kane and Son tracking back ... or scoring goals? Last two games 4 goals conceded just 1 scored. Forget Mo's comments on the Liverpool game. They were dominated and deserved to lose it. Man United had a dream game against Leeds. The 2 goals in 5 minute start
  18. If I was taking 1 bet this year, it would be for WBA to stay up under Allerdyce. He is putting a "never having been relegated" record on the line here. He is pretty confident they can survive, or he would never have taken the job in the first place. Also, most of his earnings (not that he needs more) will come from survival bonuses, but it's not about the money at this stage. More a middle finger to those non-believers!
  19. Atrocious from Southampton. Slow, lethargic, no energy. Ryan Betrand and Nathan Redmond must be two of the worst players in the league. Utterly useless. Saints rubbish, and City a little better.
  20. So another weekend of football is on us. Two or three things to note from this hectic schedule with games coming fast and faster. 1) Technical will start to dominate work rate. Teams with technically superior players will dominate, as teams legs start to fade. 2) The big teams and big squads have a huge advantage. For example at Man United. Not much difference between McTominay and Matic, Shaw or Telles, Greenwood or Martial. 3) It is far easier to defend than score goals, when the legs get heavy. I expect goals to dry up for most teams and would be leaning more and more towar
  21. Man United v Man CIty United, at home have been a disaster this season. They are just starting games so slowly. In 5 home league games they have scored just 1 first half goal. They have just 3 goals in total which is ridiculous. Only Burnley and Sheffield United have scored fewer goals. Flying by the seat of their pants for a few weeks, the league position is artificial. Crazy games against Brighton, Southampton and West Ham where they picked up a very unlikely 9 points. Then throw in a questionable penalty against WBA. You could easily take away 9 points, and then they (along with Arsena
  22. Leeds v West Ham Early weekend games tend to lead to odd results. I think most players would prefer a 3pm Saturday kickoff. It's what they know, routine wise. So an 8pm Friday night game is a tricky game for everyone. You are just out of your routine, and the pressure is on. Everyone who wants to watch football is probably watching this game. After a semi decent start are Leeds running out of gas? All fine and well to play at 100 miles an hour in the Championship, but is this style of play sustainable in the Premier League? Opponents are better, players physically fitter, strong and
  23. Another weekend of football after an International break. WARNING! Minefield Ahead. Players come back from these International breaks, with no momentum. It seems like they are doing a lot other than playing football. Most look sluggish, and these post-international break games, seem to be played at a snails pace. I simply don't like over 2.5 goal bets in these games, as goals in general tend to dry up. Will a rejuvenated Pep fire City up again? Has Everton's bubble burst? Will Solksjaer stop playing overly defensive formations against weak teams? Let's see what's on the menu the EPL
  24. Everton v Man United Here I am a lifelong Man United fan, hoping that United lose today. Ole may be a nice guy, but he is as far out of his league as David Moyes was. Look at where Liverpool were before Klopp, or Man City before Pep. If you want to win, and be a top club, you need a top manager. More importantly, you need the right personality fit, when that magic just happens. Everyone says Pochettino has not won anything, but there are only three things worth winning. The league, the Champions League and Champions League qualification. Well, the league looks a 4 way tussle between
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