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Mindfulness last won the day on September 29

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  1. Premier League Predictions > Dec 12th & 13th

    Man these midweek coupons... I wanted a nice rest after the weekend but it's straight back to grindstone. Will post again once I've done some analysis on these games.
  2. 2017 NFL Season Predictions

    Just about profitable this card with 4/7 bets landing. Credit to Brad Allen and Adam Chernoff.
  3. Serie A Predictions > Dec 9th - 11th

    Napoli V Fiorentina Fiorentina +1.5 AH @ 1.85 Unibet Napoli are in a difficult moment and it will be interesting to see if an unpredictable Fiorentina side can take advantage here. The home side are without key forward Lorenzo Insigne through injury while the absence of left-back Faouzi Ghoulam has also affected them in recent matches. They are two players who are integral to the team and Napoli are markedly weaker without them. A long term injury to centre-forward Arkadiusz Milik is also proving problematic now as coach Maurizio Sarri has been unable to rotate his team as much as he'd like in this busy winter period. They lost to title rivals Juventus last week while crashing out of the champions league midweek so it's hard to envisage morale being all that high at the club right now. Fiorentina had a turbulent start to the season but they hired a good coach in Stefano Pioli. They are a bit of a mad dog side and can be unpredictable at times but the team has had time to gel and I expect them to become increasingly stable as the season goes on. They eased passed Sassuolo last week with a 3-0 home victory and managed a respectable stalemate at Lazio the week before. If Fiorentina are unpredictable then we can always look at the metrics and I haven't seen a lot to suggest that Napoli should be so short in this situation. You could even make the argument that Fiorentina +1 AH line should be around 2.0 here but we're getting 2.6 at the time of writing this with a couple of bookmakers. ELO ratings actually give Fiorentina a fractional advantage heading into this game so I'm finding it hard to ignore them here. Napoli are not a one man team and are clearly superior to Fiorentina in many areas but it's a difficult time for the home side and the price on the away side seems big considering the circumstances. I will take Fiorentina on +1.5 line as the market maybe presenting us with an opportunity here.
  4. 2017 NFL Season Predictions

    Arizona Cardinals +3.0 @ 1.909 (Matchbook) https://insights.matchbook.com/adam-chernoff-poor-bookmaker-pricing/
  5. Premier League Predictions > Dec 9th & 10th

    Burnley V Watford X @ 3.25 Unibet These two teams are 7th and 8th in the table respectively and may just cancel each other out here. We know that Watford travel very well while Burnley are hard to beat and it's hard to imagine either team winning this encounter. Watford price has shortened to the point where an AH play is no longer viable on the away side imo. ELO ratings are close so X seems to be the way forward here. Manchester Utd V Manchester City X @ 3.6 Betfair What happens when an unstoppable also-ran meets an immovable yawn feast? Well not a lot probably which is why I like the draw here. Man Utd have a flawless home record in the league, City have a flawless away record in the league. City are of course the better team but they've staggered of late and this should be a tough game for them. On the other hand I doubt Man Utd can get the 3pts they actually need in this fixture. ELO ratings are ridiculously close so I will go for X here.
  6. Serie A Predictions > Dec 9th - 11th

    AC Milan V Bologna Bologna +1.0 AH @ 2.04 Betvictor Bologna have been impressive on the road this season, coach Roberto Donadoni is developing his team quite nicely and their defence in particular has improved from last season. They are an industrious side with good energy and organisation which makes them hard to beat. Going forward, Simone Verdi is improving his game week by week while the signing of Rodrigo Palacio has proven fruitful. Bologna are strong with their counter-attacks and now chance conversion is improving we can see why they are strong away from home. Milan on the other hand are having a bad momment in a bad season. The appointment of Gattuso is questionable imo as I don't know how qualified he is to turn around their situation. It's true that their performances have probably warranted better results but they lack a ruthlessness infront of goal. Patrick Cutrone and Andre Silva are talented but young and shouldn't be expected to carry the weight of a club like Milan on their own. Nikola Kalinic is also a decent striker at this level but I wouldn't rank him alongside the likes of Icardi and Higuain and this is the kind of player Milan need if they are to compete for the top 3 this year. Gattuso's reign has not started well with the events at Benevento last week followed by a defeat in Rijeka on Thursday, albeit with a weakened team. Some may argue that this is Milan's first home game under Gattuso which will boost the crowd etc and they maybe right. However, I still see the pressure being on Milan here and Bologna under Donadoni are the nightmare team to face given the dynamics which surround this match. Bologna also fare quite well when you look at the metrics, the ELO ratings give them nearly a half goal advantage over the last 2 games. Ultimately I think the Bologna price is too big to ignore and taking them on the +1 AH line at odds against is a logical value bet in my view.
  7. 2017 NFL Season Predictions

    6 bets so far for this week: San Francisco 49'ers +3.0 @ 1.819 (Matchbook) Houston Texans V San Francisco 49'ers = Over 43.5 @ 1.787 (Matchbook) Kansas City Chiefs V Oakland Raiders = Over 47.0 @ 1.751 (Matchbook) New York Giants +4.5 @ 1.884 (Matchbook) New York Giants V Dallas Cowboys = Under 41.0 @ 2.00 (Matchbook) Philadelphia Eagles @ 2.15 (Matchbook) https://insights.matchbook.com/brad-allen-wrong-team-favoured-favoured-nfc-heavyweight-clash/
  8. 2017 NFL Season Predictions

    5 wins from 7 bets this week, credit to Brad Allen and Adam Chernoff.
  9. Premier League Predictions > Dec 2nd & 3rd

    I know mate, some proper witchcraft at play with that one.
  10. Premier League Predictions > Dec 2nd & 3rd

    There's no facility to cash out accas with Unibet which is why I've backed Benevento +0.50 @ 3.30. Will make a profit whatever happens now but obviously a lot more if Milan win. Totally agree about X in south coast derby, at the start of the weekend that was the fixture I thought most likely to end in a draw.
  11. Premier League Predictions > Dec 2nd & 3rd

    We've completed the hard yards on this one but I've now backed Benevento +0.50 @ 3.30 just to guarantee some profits. I've emailed Gennaro and told him it's important that he does the business tommorow, he understood: http://www.football-italia.net/113668/gattuso-benevento-champions-league
  12. Non-League Predictions > Dec 2nd

    Cheers @Darran hope Gloucester can survive these troubled times.
  13. Good shout on Hamilton @allyhibs
  14. Premier League Predictions > Dec 2nd & 3rd

    Accumulator Everton V Huddersfield Town = Under 3.5 Watford V Tottenham Hotspur = BTTS Crystal Palace +0.50 Manchester Utd +0.50 AC Milan 6.52 @ Unibet
  15. Premier League Predictions > Dec 2nd & 3rd

    Leicester City V Burnley Burnley +0.75 @ 1.84 Betvictor The metrics are very close between these two and yet we have a slightly generous line for the away team. It's true that this is an unpredictable game between two in-form sides and perhaps the market is expecting Burnley to slide down the table sooner rather than later. It's not unreasonable considering that I would have Leicester finishing above Burnley come May, but let's face it, the EPL is not always cut and dried as Leicester proved by winning the title a couple of seasons ago. We know that Leicester have the greater individual quality compared to Burnley but the Clarets should prove to be tricky opponents in this match. Sean Dyche's team are extremely robust with the 3rd best defence in the league, the centre-back partnership of Tarkowski and Mee is particularly strong. Burnley also pose more of a threat on the counter-attack this season with efficiency infront of goal added to their sharp and direct play. Leicester are particularly vulnerable to opposition counter-attacks and also vulnerable when defending set-pieces; another area where I think Burnley can trouble them here. Ultimately I have to go by the data that's available and there is very little to separate these two sides. I don't think Burnley +0.50 line should be odds against here and so the market has opened the door to make a value bet on the away side. I will take the slightly more cautious +0.75 line as Leicester are more than capable of winning this encounter. I'm not making this play because I think Burnley will definately avoid defeat, I'm making it because I think their price is a bit too generous when you look at the metrics. Backing the draw is also not unreasonable here, hopefully Burnley can keep their run going for a bit longer and pickup a positive result this Saturday.