Mindfulness

Restricted Members
  • Content count

    1427
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    8

Mindfulness last won the day on September 18

Mindfulness had the most liked content!

About Mindfulness

  • Rank
    Metta Meditation
  • Birthday 05/07/83
  1. Premier League Predictions > Nov 24th - 26th

    Watford V Liverpool Watford +1.25 AH @ 1.80 Betvictor The price is already starting to shorten on the home side so I'm gonna have to pull the trigger now. Watford are harsh noise at Vicarage Road, their intense midfield press, physical style and decent home support is enough to cause most of their EPL opponents problems this season. It's true that Liverpool could obliterate the majority of teams at EPL level and so fading them with big asian lines still carries risk. Despite this, we have to be brave; key goal metrics do not favour Liverpool that much here and once you factor in home v away dynamics, the disparity between the two sides is even less. ELO ratings also show Liverpool's attacking performance advantage dwindling. A trip to Vicarage Road is probably not what the doctor ordered for Liverpool after returning from the international break. Watford can make things difficult for their opponents here.
  2. Premier League Predictions > Nov 24th - 26th

    Wolverhampton Wanderers V Huddersfield Town Huddersfield Town +1.25 AH @ 1.76 Betvictor I think the AH line has been incorrectly set for this match. Wolves chance conversion issues are already well documented and getting them to clear a big handicap in any EPL game is a big ask for them. Huddersfield have started the season poorly but have looked more like their old selves in recent matches. You cannot write them off under the guidance of David Wagner, they have the potential to make life difficult for Wolves here. The away side are presently available at 9.0 and this just seems silly to me. Key attacking metrics give Wolves half a goal advantage heading into this match while ELO ratings actually give Huddersfield half a goal advantage based on recent attacking performance. In my view the Huddersfield +0.75 AH line should be set around 2.00 for this game, we're getting 2.47 at the time of writing this. Some folks will prefer to take Huddersfield on the +1.0 AH line here and that's fair enough, I will go for +1.25 so I can register a bit of profit in the event of a narrow Wolves win. It's difficult to see this huge Huddersfield price lasting once the big movers and shakers in the market start to sharpen up the lines.
  3. Premier League Predictions > Nov 10th & 11th

    Backed you guys on -0 AH line @ 1.76 at Wolves last week. You are nowhere near that price versus Palace even though opposition is the same level. A tired Tottenham with high turnover of games would have to drift a lot more for me to consider backing them at Palace. Just strikes me as an obvious no bet scenario at current prices.
  4. Premier League Predictions > Nov 10th & 11th

    This is a good spot, I actually think Palace V Spurs is a very difficult game to predict this weekend, mainly because I have no idea what sort of team Spurs will put out. If Wanyama and Dier return it will surely be a boost for the unders + Pochettino says he is considering resting Eriksen and Alli due to a rapid turnover of games. I will follow you on Under 2.5 @ 2.18 Matchbook I think you're right, price is just too generous. People should probably avoid 1X2 and AH markets for this game, it's very dicey in my view.
  5. Serie A Predictions > Nov 9th - 11th

    Frosinone V Fiorentina Fiorentina @ 1.75 Betfair An opportunity for Fiorentina to register their first away win of the campaign here. The fixture machine has not been kind to the Viola thus far with trips to Napoli, Sampdoria, Inter, Lazio and Torino. Naturally, Fiorentina have found it difficult to pickup results in these games and their ELO ratings have probably diminished as a result. Frosinone have picked up lately due to a change in formation. They are unbeaten in the last 3 league games and have scored 6 goals in that period. The problem for them here is that Fiorentina are clearly a level above what Frosinone have faced in those last 3 matches. Frosinone are particularly vulnerable when defending against opponents with skill, which Fiorentina have in abundance with Chiesa, Pjaca and Mirallas. Frosinone are also missing key forward Ciano for this game which is problematic for the home team as he is their main contributor for goals and assists. Full-back Molinaro is also absent and this will leave Frosinone more exposed on the flanks. To summarise, I think we should see past the recency bias in the market and back Fiorentina to get that first away win here. The Viola have enough quality to take all 3pts and I would make the away side around 1.60 for this game.
  6. Premier League Predictions > Nov 10th & 11th

    Can understand the temptation to back Burnley on a + here but I think this game should probably be left alone. As Kiko said; lots of uncertainty and frankly Burnley are in such a poor moment. @Sir Puntalot @KikoCy
  7. Premier League Predictions > Nov 10th & 11th

    The next striker we buy needs to have the ability to magic himself out of the treatment room Selling Murray was probably the worst bit of business the club has done since being back in the EPL. We'd be flying if he was in the team now. Anyway, glad you're alright. I have mixed feelings about Brighton scrapping the clackers, they provided such lol's. I guess some of you do have some honour left.
  8. Premier League Predictions > Nov 10th & 11th

    By the way, where is @Tiffy??? Have hardly seen him on the EPL threads this season. I hope Tony Bloom hasn't hired him to handcraft clackers and laminate song sheets for match days.
  9. Premier League Predictions > Nov 10th & 11th

    Cardiff City V Brighton & Hove Albion X @ 3.16 Marathonbet As @StevieDay1983 has already mentioned, Cardiff lack a ruthless goalscorer. The spirit level is good with the Bluebirds at present and this is reflected in the ELO ratings. Despite this, I prefer to go with X here rather than home team DNB or AH 0 line. Brighton are notoriously poor on the road in the EPL but their defence is worthy of respect and I doubt the Seaweeds will be too phased when facing this Cardiff attack. Brighton are also in good spirits at present and the two sides may well cancel each other out here. On a side note, completely agree with @StevieDay1983 regarding Neil Warnock. He is one of the best managers in English league football and fully deserves another shot at keeping an underdog team in the EPL. Cardiff's biggest asset is their manager. Southampton V Watford X @ 3.40 Unibet ELO ratings are very close here, some folks will side with the away team on the +0.25 AH line and that's fair enough. I prefer X as I think this could be another game where neither team is strong enough to win it. Watford will miss Etienne Capoue for this match, his grit and industry is quite important for Javi Gracia's side, particularly within the current system they deploy. Nathaniel Chalobah is a quality replacement but he isn't quite as strong with the defensive side of the game. Watford have clearly outperformed Southampton so far this campaign but this is the type of match which could be a little awkward for Doucoure & co. Low defensive blocks and plenty of shooting from downtown will probably be on the menu here, Southampton vice-chairman Les Reed has made a bee line for the exits, Mark Hughes will try and avoid getting stung by the hornets... If this game ends in stalemate we will be buzzing.
  10. Premier League Predictions > Nov 3rd - 5th

    Wolverhampton Wanderers V Tottenham Hotspur Tottenham Hotspur -0 AH @ 1.76 Betvictor The Tottenham price has drifted to the point where it's getting a little silly now. Pochettino's side are clearly a level above Wolves but the markets are pricing the away side as if they're a fading force in English football?!?! As @thfc has mentioned; Spurs see the return of Dele Alli and Christian Eriksen and this will add another dimension to their attacking play. Alli in particular looked very dangerous when he came on against Man City and will look to exploit any spaces in Wolves backline, a backline I am still unconvinced by. We must give credit to Wolves as they are well drilled, cohesive and play as a team. They are a midtable EPL side and will probably avoid the relegation dog fight this season. Despite this, they have a poor chance conversion rate and lack ruthless forwards for EPL level. Key attacking metrics rate Spurs over half a goal better than Wolves here. ELO ratings have the away team at just over a quarter of a goal ahead but we must bear in mind the recent absence of Alli and Eriksen, Tottenham's attacking performance is surely better when those two play. Spurs with full draw cover @ 1.7 and above is worth backing in my view.
  11. Premier League Predictions > Nov 3rd - 5th

    You've done well there, I'd be straight on BTTS @ 1.83 for that game.
  12. Premier League Predictions > Nov 3rd - 5th

    Love to know where you're getting BTTS @ 1.83 for that game.
  13. EFL Cup Predictions > Oct 30th - Nov 1st

    Middlesbrough V Crystal Palace Jordan Hugill anytime goalscorer @ 3.8 Betway I feel there is some added value in backing Hugill to score tonight. With the exception of Wan-Bissaka, Palace are fielding a second-string backline. Jairo Riedewald may well play at centre-back and he is notoriously bad in the air. Hugill is decent with his ariel duels and is an indirect set-piece threat. If Boro can provide him with some good deliveries in the box then he can trouble Palace tonight. Worth a punt, small stake.
  14. Non-League Predictions > October 27th

    @Darran Just in terms of the national league; are there any teams you think are punching above their weight at present and will fade as the season progresses? Similarly, any teams which are underperforming at present and should climb the table as the season progresses?
  15. Non-League Predictions > October 27th

    It doesn't really matter though as most bettors don't know which way the big asian syndicates are gonna move. Also, your methodology would be compromised as soon as you were no longer privy to said information. If you want to be an independent and successful gambler in the long run then it's better to be able to find and assess valuation errors yourself. If you're able to do that consistently and effectively then what other people do in the market is irrelevant.