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Mindfulness last won the day on February 8

Mindfulness had the most liked content!

About Mindfulness

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    Mind 2 Motion
  • Birthday 05/07/83

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  1. Serie A Predictions > Feb 17th - 19th

    Chievo V Cagliari X @ 3.2 Betfair Chievo have had a rough time of it recently, the 1-0 stoppage time home defeat to Genoa added further insult to injury at the weekend. They now face a Cagliari side who have found their level in the lower mid-table zone this campaign. Looking at the metrics we can see these sides are closely matched in a number of important areas. Cagliari have had the stronger backline thus far - it's an area where Chievo have really struggled this season. The home side can be thankful that RB Cacciatore returns for this match to help shore things up. I'm prepared to overlook Chievo's poor form here as metrics suggest this game should be close. X seems to hold the most value in this situation. Benevento V Crotone X @ 3.2 Betfair Benevento play the better football of the two but Crotone are stronger defensively and more pragmatic which is why they have a chance of surviving come the end of the season and Benevento don't. Once again we see two teams that are very closely matched in some key areas when looking at the metrics. It's very hard to pick a winner from these two and the stats suggest neither side is really capable of running away with it. X seems to be the logical play after running the numbers.
  2. Serie A Predictions > Feb 9th - 11th

    Rough going this weekend guys, Lazio were a disgrace in that second half, some of the goals they conceded were just ridiculous. Atalanta had a tough game as conditions were appauling and it was questionable that the match went ahead. The pitch was in really poor condition aswell and this affected Atalanta's ability to pass ball and dominate the game: https://www.football-italia.net/117020/inzaghi-lazio-reaction-unacceptable https://www.football-italia.net/117012/gasp-good-point-circumstances February has been a difficult month so far but hopefully things will improve soon.
  3. Premier League Predictions > Feb 10th - 12th

    @Tiffy No problem. As you said, very unpredictable game and I personally would want bigger price on Brighton all things considered.
  4. Premier League Predictions > Feb 10th - 12th

    That particular selection was on my shortlist but I've decided to leave it alone because metrics and ELO do not favour Brighton here. You're right to highlight Brighton's new forward additions because that may make past performance less relevant and also agree that it boosts the performance of other players. Generally I feel the Stoke V Brighton game is hard to price in present circumstances but markets don't appear to have done a terrible job in any case. Valuations seem to be in the right ball park so it's a no bet for me. I'm not advising you or others to avoid backing the away side, just saying what I'm gonna do.
  5. Serie A Predictions > Feb 9th - 11th

    Napoli V Lazio Lazio +1.0 AH @ 1.78 Betvictor I guess we're seeing a big price on the away team due to conflicting form but I am prepared to back Lazio here as I don't see a big difference between the two sides. First off, Napoli have won 7 league games on the bounce and are making a serious charge for the scudetto. They're a fantastic team and will surely finish above Lazio come the end of the season. Despite this, I expect Maurizio Sarri's team to be given a stern test this weekend in what should be the tie of the round. Lazio have staggered recently by losing their last 2 league games. Coach Simone Inzaghi said his team were a little fatigued at the weekend in the home defeat to Genoa. Inzaghi did not field a full-strength team in that game with Milinkovic-Savic and Lulic both absent and Felipe Anderson struggling for match fitness. I expect Milinkovic-Savic and Lulic to return to the starting eleven V Napoli which will make Lazio a lot more competitive. Looking at the metrics in detail we can see that Lazio outperform Napoli in a couple of key areas. Essentially, both teams create a lot of chances but Lazio actually have the better conversion rate. ELO ratings also suggest game is very balanced so I do not believe such a big price for Lazio is justified here. Lazio on +1 asian line gives us decent cover in a game that should be more competitive than the markets suggest. Value on away team is too big to ignore in my view.
  6. Serie A Predictions > Feb 9th - 11th

    Crotone V Atalanta Atalanta -0.25 AH @ 1.72 Betvictor As I said a couple of weeks back, Crotone had a good transfer window with the additions they've made to their squad. It's starting to show on the pitch as Walter Zenga's side are now unbeaten in 3, a run of results which includes a very respectable draw at Inter Milan. My view is that it will be tough for Crotone to keep the unbeaten run going here against an Atalanta team which is performing well. Gian Piero Gasperini's side had a number of issues to contend with heading into the game with Chievo at the weekend but they still managed to emerge victorious. Atalanta have had some tough fixtures recently but they still gave a good account of themselves and they may just have too much for a plucky Crotone in this situation. Looking at the metrics, Atalanta are clearly ahead in almost all areas compared to Crotone and I would expect the Nerazzurri to dominate the play despite being away from home. ELO ratings are also very favourable to Atalanta here which is encouraging. I would say Atalanta should be priced between 1.70 and 1.80 for this game but the markets are giving us 2.00 at the time of writing this which seems generous. I will take the away side on -0.25 line here for some extra cover but taking Atalanta outright is also acceptable @ EVS or above imo.
  7. Premier League Predictions > Feb 10th - 12th

    West Ham Utd V Watford Watford +0.25 AH @ 1.85 Betvictor West Ham have been in a difficult moment of late with a serious injury crisis and although players are starting to return I still feel this match with Watford will be a tricky one. Arnautovic, Lanzini and Carroll are still set to miss out for the home side and the first two players in that set are particularly crucial to the hammers fortunes. A 3-1 defeat at Brighton would not have lifted the mood in the camp and there is always a danger of West Ham's home support imploding in on the team when things are not going well. Watford have also staggered of late but the 4-1 home victory to Chelsea should have lifted the mood and restored some confidence to Javi Gracia's side. The Hornets really do have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to attacking players and they can be a menace to any side in this division on their day. They are also strong away from home and that's another reason why I like them here, if West Ham push too hard for the win it will play to Watford's strengths. Looking at the metrics and the EPL table we can see that these two sides are closely matched. However, I have Watford slightly ahead by most measures and do not see them having a disadvantage by being the away team here. ELO ratings also show attacking advantage has faded for West Ham in recent matches and this correlates with injuries to Arnautovic and Lanzini. AH markets currently have West Ham 0 line around 1.75 and Watford 0 line around 2.25. In my view this should be the other way round with Watford slight favourites for the match all things considered. Because Watford had such a big win against Chelsea I am concerned this may move the markets and compromise value so I am not going to wait for more detailed team news and back Watford early here. Will keep folks posted if there are further developments.
  8. Serie A Predictions > Feb 3rd - 5th

    I don't know but I'm writing to both the club and his agent to complain.
  9. Serie A Predictions > Feb 3rd - 5th

    Well played @StevieDay1983 I should have taken Sassuolo on the +8 asian line!!! Juventus score 7 and Mandzukic doesn't get on the scoresheet:
  10. 2017/18 NFL Season Predictions

    Super Bowl: Philadelphia Eagles +6.0 @ 1.781 (Matchbook)
  11. Non-League Predictions > Feb 3rd

    "Them f***ing Hawks are playing well, I'm telling ya..."
  12. Serie A Predictions > Feb 3rd - 5th

    Juventus V Sassuolo Sassuolo +2.0 AH @ 1.676 Matchbook Much like Atalanta, Juventus are a bit worse for wear after their Coppa Italia match. Allegri's side are facing a mini injury crisis heading into this game with Dybala, Cuadrado and Douglas Costa all out of action (19 goals and 12 assists between them so far this campaign). Should also be noted that Bernardeschi makes the squad but is not in the best condition with a slight knock. Sassuolo had a good transfer window with no major players leaving apart from the somewhat ineffective Falcinelli who has been replaced by the more dynamic Babacar. I like Beppe Iachini as a coach and I think with the squad they have, Sassuolo can improve in the second half of the campaign. Sassuolo are actually better on the road than they are at home which is another reason why I think they are slightly long in this situation. Despite the absences you would still expect Juventus to get the job done here but it may not be as easy as the markets suggest. Sassuolo are priced too big in my view so I will back them on the +2 asian line here, more adventurous punters may go for the +1.75 line. On a side note, I expect Sassuolo to be vulnerable to headed attempts and set-pieces in this game so Mario Mandzukic anytime goalscorer @ 2.5 could be worth a punt at low stakes.
  13. Serie A Predictions > Feb 3rd - 5th

    Atalanta V Chievo Chievo +1.5 AH @ 1.79 Betvictor After looking at this game in detail I would say that Chievo are a bit long here. Metrics and ELO ratings suggest Atalanta have a single goal advantage heading into this but markets seem overzealous with their valuation of the home side. In my estimation Chievo +1 asian line should be around 2.00 but instead we're getting 2.43 at the time of writing this. Atalanta coach Gian Piero Gasperini also has some injury issues to contend with here as CB Caldara and FW Gomez did not make the squad for Chievo. Playmaker Ilicic does make the squad but is not in the best condition and with Rizzo also out these absences might hinder Atalanta's ability to construct the game effectively. Atalanta's injuries may have something to do with the Coppa Italia game they played against Juventus a few days ago. Either way Chievo will have had more time to prepare for this match which is a bonus in itself. Chievo have CM Castro and ST Inglese return to the squad for the trip to Atalanta. They may not start the game but are important players so coach Rolando Maran has more options heading into this game. Chievo have also signed AM Giaccherini on loan from Napoli which will add some genuine quality to their midfield. To summarise, Atalanta are rightly favourites for this game but not at such a short price in my view. Chievo can improve with the additional personnel so it will be interesting to see if they can capitalise here.
  14. Premier League Predictions > Feb 3rd - 5th

  15. Premier League Predictions > Feb 3rd - 5th

    The midweek card was great but this looks a lot more difficult on first viewing. I'm struggling to shortlist games here and you know you're in trouble when that happens. Some cards you just have to sit back and let it all play out and that might not be a bad idea this weekend, let the dust settle after that wretched transfer window. Will post again if I find anything but not really expecting to with this pile of dross. @andrewcalo Swansea have a fighting chance of staying in the division now, despite the naysayers. Are you able to conjure up any bets from leftfield on this card? @Tiffy Don't slag off Glenn!