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About markus808

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 03/03/83
  1. Europa League - Lay the odds on fav

    Good job, do you think it will work in later stages too? My hypothesis is that it wouldn't be as profitable because the odds would be more even.
  2. Premier League Predictions > Jan 30th & 31st

    Arsenal has just 1 WIN of their last 7 away games in all competitions, so I would think twice before betting on them. Also @ 1.51, they offer hardly any value.
  3. Premier League Predictions > Jan 30th & 31st

    Swansea vs Arsenal under 2.5 @ 2.18 Unibet. Expecting similar game as against Liverpool, Swansea is defensively solid if they decide to park the bus, which they do against top clubs. Everton vs Leicester 1x @1.45 Betsafe. I think the market has overreacted to Leicesters recent draw with Chelsea. Although I'm a fan and Leicester are better on the paper, they are notoriously unreliable and should not be favorites away to Everton. I agree, West Ham took a heavy loss losing two of their best offensive players. There is some value in laying the Hammers.
  4. Premier League Predictions > Jan 20th - 22nd

    Riyad Mahrez is playing against a side without a clean sheet in the last 10 Gameweeks. Over that period he has scored five goals.I see value in Riyad Mahrez anytime goalscorer @ 3.00 with Betsafe, medium stakes.
  5. Premier League Predictions > Jan 13th - 15th

    I see many games that could go either way. These are really hard to predict and the odds reflect that. But I think it's a good week for live betting. So I'm going to watch the games and shots statistics and then make bets on the sides that seem stronger. Odds on Swansea win look bit off but I will watch the first 20 minutes or so and then make a bet.
  6. Premier League Predictions > Sep 9th - 11th

    I think there's some value on today's game West Ham vs Huddersfield away team to win to nil 5.95 @Betsafe. You can also take the AH line if you want to be more conservative. West Ham has had an uninspiring/horror start and Huddersfield is doing quite the opposite, that's why I like the odds here.
  7. Manager: Markus TaniTeam Name: FC Bioloogiline EmaForum Username: markus808
  8. Premier League > Oct 15th - 17th

    Not worth it, it could be 4-2, 5-1 as easily, go for over 3.5 goals if you think it's high scoring game
  9. Euro 2016 - Knockout Stages

    Lay Portugal, huge value. Portugal is not better than Hungary, imagine if Hungary would play Croatia, 1x2 odds would not be so generous as they are now against Portugal 2.62 / 3.0 / 3.1. Draw no bet is also possible but if you think a draw is possible outcome you should put a bet on it. My picks: 5 units on 1x 1.36 at betfair 2 units on 1 2.62 at betfair
  10. Poland has a chance to win the Group C if they win and score at least 1 more goal than Germany (goal difference is +2 to Germany, +1 to Poland). Ukraine has showed lack of team spirit, 0 points and goal difference 0:4 means they are already packing bags, goals are likely. I expect RUS vs WAL style meltdown, whereas Northen Ireland vs Germany is more than likely to be tight game. NIR will fight for a point, Germany will also rest some players. 1.5units Poland to win group C @ 5.5 betfair
  11. What do you think about England vs Wales 1-1 draw @8.1 Betfair? Bookies think the likelihood of this happening is 11.63% I beg to differ, England and Belgium are notorious underachivers in tournaments and are always way overpriced. There haven't been 0-0 draws in the group phases for 8 years. I see value taking 1-1, and maybe cover this with 2-1.
  12. Euro 2016 > Outright Betting

    I'd lay England and Belgium with these odds, way off imho, the odds should be around where Italy's are, lot of fan money there.
  13. My bet for today is correct score 1-0 6.0 @betfair. I see a lot of value there, because this is exactly the kind of result to expect in these kind of matches. It would be a mirror result to their previous game. Atletico has shown that they can defend, even with 10 men. 1-0 would also suit both sides and no one needs to risk too much before going to the extra time. But Bayern need their goal and they showed that they can put a pressure on Atletico and were little bit unlucky and dont forget that Atletico has the best defence in Champions League. So 1-0. Also Over 6.5 Cards 2.58@betfair. Is worth to chek out, value is quite thin, but there still is something. Bayern 19 yellow 1 red, Ateltico 20 yellow, 1 red in 11 matches, last game had 5 yellows, but there could be some more today because no need to hold back anymore.
  14. Champions League > April 5/6

    Just put say £200 on x2 @ 2.38 and put a £10-25 on almost every win you didn't cover and it's time!
  15. Premier League > Dec 28th - 30th

    Some useful statistics: Norwich vs Aston Villa: - Since winning away at Bournemouth in GW1, Aston Villa have picked up just two points in eight PL away games in 2015-16 (D2 L6). - The Canaries have netted just four goals in their last five PL games at Carrow Road, three of which have been scored from corners. - The Canaries have scored in all but two of their 27 league meetings with Aston Villa at home. - Aston Villa have won just three of their last 12 PL games against newly-promoted opposition (W3 D3 L6). West Brom vs Newcastle: - West Brom have fired in fewer shots on target (50) than any other PL team - Newcastle have now conceded 68 PL goals in 2015, more than any other side - Newcastle United have lost just one of their last seven PL meetings with WBA (W4 D2 L1). - The Magpies have only failed to score in two of their last 28 league meetings with West Brom - The Magpies have failed to score in nine of their last 14 PL away games - West Brom have attempted a league-low 155 shots (inc. blocked) in the PL in 2015-16 Everton vs Stoke: - Butland as the best saves to shots ratio (82%) of any goalkeeper in the PL - Stoke have the worst chance conversion rate (9.7%) in the PL this season. - Stoke scored with 2 of their 3 shots on target while Man Utd was wasteful with their chances: - There have been 19 goals scored in the last four PL games played at Goodison Park; an average of 4.8 per game - The Potters have kept a clean sheet in five of their last six PL games away from home – this is more than they'd kept in their previous 33 PL away games (4). Crystal Palace vs Swansea: - Swansea have won just one of their last nine Premier League away games, losing six of these (D2). - Swansea have won three of their last four league away trips to play Palace at Selhurst Park (W3 D0 L1). - The Swans have conceded only three goals in their last eight league games against Palace. Watford vs Spurs: - Since losing away to Man Utd on MD1 (0-1), Spurs are unbeaten away from home in the PL (W3 D4). - Watford have kept six clean sheets in their nine PL home games so far in 2015-16. Arsenal vs Bournemouth: - The Gunners are unbeaten in their last 21 PL meetings with newly-promoted opposition (W17 D4) - Arsenal have scored in each of their last 29 PL games against newly-promoted opposition. - Bournemouth are now unbeaten in six Premier League matches (W3 D3). Man United vs Chelsea: - Man Utd have lost just one of 15 games with Schneiderlin starting, and five of 11 without him. - Man Utd have averaged just 1.29 goals per game in the league this season; their lowest average since 1989-90 (1.21). - Stoke scored with 2 of their 3 shots on target while Man Utd was wasteful with their chances: - The last three fixtures between these two sides at Old Trafford in the PL have produced just three goals in total. - Man U have kept six clean sheets and conceded just three goals in their eight PL home games in 2015-16. - Man U have won just four of their last 10 PL home games (W4 D4 L2). West Ham vs Southampton: - Saints have won just two of their last 15 PL away games (W2 D5 L8), netting just 11 goals in this run - West Ham are unbeaten in their last six PL home games, but four of these have been draws (W2 D4 L0). - Despite being injured since early November, Payet has created more than twice as many chances as any other West Ham player in the PL this season (47). Man City vs Leicester: - Leicester (vs Liverpool) failed to score for the first time in all competitions since May 16th, a run of 22 matches (0-0 vs. Sunderland). - Man City have scored just one goal in their last four PL away games. Sunderland vs Liverpool: - Sunderland have now conceded 28 goals in just 10 PL away matches this season, more than any other side. - Sunderland have won just three of their 28 PL games against Liverpool, all by a one goal margin at the Stadium of Light. - Liverpool have conceded only 10 goals in their last 22 league meetings with Sunderland. Credit for the stats goes to ZASA EL WEÓN from fantasyfootballscout forum