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About markus808

  • Birthday 03/03/1983

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  1. Long time no see my friends. Having great success lately with my EC picks, lots of value everywhere. From now on I'll be sharing my picks here. Hungary vs Portugal This is a must win, must not lose game for both. These more often than not tend to be cagey affairs and likely draws. But odds suggest Portugal to win around 70% of the times? Let's look at some stats. Last time at Euro 2016 Portugal had 3 draws at group stage, one with Hungary. If we are only looking at 2021 matches for Portugal and Hungary and excluding games against microstates like Luxembourg, Andorra and San Marino. Portugal has won 2 and drawn 2, and Hungary has won 1 and drawn 2. So odds are definitely off and by a lot. Both teams are in good form, and only one loss between them in their last 10 games. I'm going for a draw @ 4.7 with Unibet Germany vs France I know Germany is Germany and they play on their home soil, but they are big underdogs when you look at their form. Going for straight France win is a bit too much for me, even @ 2.7, because draws happen at group stages more often than odds suggest, and both teams are more than capable to score the equalizer, when they need to. Odds for draw are correct, and for me there is no value there. I think the 1x2 lines will change a little after we know Hungary vs Portugal results, so you may want to wait or bet before the result instead. France AH +0 (draw no bet) @ 1.83 with Unibet is something I'm going to place a big and relatively risk free bet on. Since I feel like I might be missing some value here I'm considering making another bet on 1x @ 1.44 with Unibet I would usually back it up with correct score draw instead, but I have no idea, what would the most likely draw be, so staying away from CS market. Good luck!
  2. I'm looking at the offside markets and found these odds: Side with the most offsides 1.65 3.80 4.20. I think these are beautiful odds and should be taken. It's more of a coin flip in my book. Both sides hardly getting any offsides in the later stages: France 1 offside vs Croatia 3 in their last three games. I don't see either of them changing their winning ways and starting to put long balls forward or changing their formation. I'm definitely putting some money on that market: Side with the most offsides x @3.80 and 2 @4.20 with Unibet. Under 2.5 offsides @1.90 with Unibet
  3. Godin and Caceres have been eating Mbappes for the morning for decades now, he is not fooling guys like them with his runs Let's just say France has had easy games thus far. Belgium, on the other hand, has taken it easy although finding herself in tough situations. So tournament wise I see Belgium coming in better prepared having been tested two times already. I would rate them as equals so there is some value in Belgium for me. I find this statistic pretty alarming, it means that the French have been very lucky to get this far and they have been overperforming, I would expect the normal stats being around 60%. So I have gone with Belgium to qualify @2 Belgium to win @3 and CS 1-1 @6.5 with Betfair
  4. 0-0 or under 0.5 would be better then, it will give you odds around 2.4.
  5. Odds are good, although we have not seen any extra time goals yet? Value is definitely on the home side. I don't see many crazy scorelines so instead of Uruguay's win I went for CS 1-0 @10 with Betfair
  6. The South Americans are on a run of seven straight wins in all competitions, conceding just a single goal. The other interesting fact is that in all competitions, four of the last five clashes between the two sides have ended in 0-0 1-1 being new 0-0, I have gone with CS 1-1 @7.4 with Betfair (exchange)
  7. Brazil vs Belgium Belgium has only scored once in the first half while Brazil has scored two of their seven goals in the first half. Expecting the same dynamics, but even more pronounced. So my bet is Both Teams to Score in Second Half @3.4 with Betfair
  8. With some of the key defenders missing I'm expecting to see some late challenges and questionable plays, both teams have been involved in penalties before. Outright penalty market @2.4 offers no value so I've gone with: Sweden to score a penalty @9.0 Switzerland to score a penalty@ 8.5 with Betfair Both teams to score a penalty @41 with Betfair
  9. I have found some success in betting CS 1-1 and cashing out or waiting for it to last till extra time depending on what I see. I'm going to do that for today's games. Also, I have noticed that virtually no yellows are been given in the 16th final. Maybe the referees have been instructed to do so or maybe it's the VAR. There seems to be a lot of value in cards market. Take a closer look if interested. BRA vs MEX Under 3.5 cards @2.42 with betfair
  10. Uruguay vs Portugal. Expecting a tight match, it's going to be a war of wills. Uruguay has only one yellow from the previous 3 games, whereas Portugal has many. When under pressure, for example, Portugal vs Iran or Portugal at Euro 2016, they get many yellows. Also, there is quite a big chance for the game to go to extra time, this means even more time to collect yellows. EDIT: Extra time usually does not count on yellow card market. So, given this, I found two bets which offer value: Team with the most cards Portugal @ 2.27 Portugal over 1.5 cards @1.43
  11. I agree completely, maybe some AH lines offer value. I think I've made most of my money betting against English punters, so I need to take these odds in some form or another Also I understand that English media is pretty big on it "coming back home"? I think all the previous England games account to pretty much nothing whereas Columbia has been pressure tested and they came out alive but somewhat injured, I'm not sure who it favors more, but a weak group is usually not a blessing and resting players, hmmm, still not sure about that. Look at the previous world cup winners, how much do they rest their teams in final games? Usually they are not in no position to rest their players they need to fight and grind out the results, this is how the champions are being made.
  12. Uruguay vs Portugal is a really hard game to to find any kind of value, because teams are very predictable and the way they play does not vary a lot, outright markets and over under and markets have got it all right. But because of the predictability I see some value in taking some CS-s. Uruguay v Portugal CS 1 - 1 @ 6.00 with betfair. Taking account to Portugal's 2016 World Cup progression, I see this score quite likely. Both teams are solid defensively, and making sure not to concede, while arguably having some of the the best goalscorers in the world playing against each other.This bet is pretty easy to trade in-game if I see it is not going to go my way from the beginning and one team is disintegrating before our eyes. Also it helps me to lay 0-0 which I don't believe is happening. I think the market may have over reacted on some things, for example Portugal under 2.5 team goals being 1.03 which is 97%, meaning 3+ goals happens almost NEVER, which I quite disagree with because never is such a bold statement. Taking account that we have VAR and great goalscorers in both teams I have gone smaller bets on CS 2-1 Uruguay @11, CS 2-1 Portugal @ 12 These are more for the testing purposes and there is no history to support these bets but I think we might see history changing
  13. I expect physical Senegal side to get more cards against fast and individually able Colombians. Both of the bets would have won in Senegal's previous two games. Senegal had 2 cards against Poland and 3 cards against Japan. Senegal more cards @1.76 Senegal over 1.5 cards @1.42
  14. I'm expecting FRA vs DEN all over again in England vs Belgium match.I expect to see no team effort on winning from either side. No intent on winning can still sometimes result in somebody winning, so a safer bet would be to go to yellow cards market. When people don't care about winning they don't don't care about tripping other players or acting unsportsmanlike either. I have gone for under 2.5 yellows @ 2.37 and under 3.5 yellows @1.59 with betsafe.
  15. I'm expecting a Peru goal but besides these two I don't see anyone else scoring. So my bet for today is France vs Peru anytime goalscorer Paolo Guerrero @5.0 and Christian Cueva (who is on penalties too) @ 5.5 with betfair. Also I'm not sure Peru should be 7.0 against VAR enhanced France maybe I will take a look at some AH lines.
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