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About markus808

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 03/03/83
  1. Champions League Predictions > May 26th

    I will go with Real Madrid win as in previous years, odds are ok-ish. Reasoning being that Liverpool are not the best travellers and Real Madrid is really good in these winner takes all matches. Odds should rise even more, last year against Juventus Madrid was 2.60 I don't think that Liverpool has a realistic chance to win like Juve had last time. Only red cards, own goals and stuff like that can ruin the day for Madrid. Klopp will more often than not fail against big teams and coaches playing away (not home).
  2. Serie A Predictions > Apr 17th & 18th

    Went with your Lazio bet and first half Roma win 1-0 and 2-0, solid pics and solid data behind! Made a good profit.
  3. Premier League Predictions > Apr 14th - 19th

    Southampton vs Chelsea I see value on draw. Southamptons home form against top 4 -11 clubs is 1W 3D 2L. Chelsea being out of form lately although facing tough opponents has not shown anything spectacular. Southampton desperately needs points to avoid relegation. Southampton vs Chelsea X @ 3.75 with betsafe
  4. Premier League Predictions > Apr 14th - 19th

    Swanseas last 5 home games WWWWL, Evertons last 5 away games WLLLL. I'm going to go with Swansea here. Everton has only won twice away this season. So I will go heavy on Swansea win, odds look good to me. Swansea to win @ 2.54 with bet365.
  5. Premier League Predictions > Mar 17th

    Maybe try 1-1 @ 6 with bet365, or even 0-0 @6 and 1-1 @ 8 together. It's bit higer still than the 3.20. Can anyone point me to a calculator or a formula how to calculate the combined odds return of the above bet, I think I might have a brain damage from german weissbeer (8+6)/2? This calculation assumes that the likelihood of both outcomes is the same, which is not true, if we think it were we should adjust our betting and bet less on higher odds and more on lower.
  6. Premier League Predictions > Mar 10th - 12th

    Is there a live betting thread? I got Manchester to win @ 1.7 when they were leading 1-0
  7. Premier League Predictions > Mar 10th - 12th

    Seems like a good week for live bets, many teams will try to improve their standings and need to play for points, others again may have lost their motivation. Lot's of variance this week I'm afraid. I will put small bet on Manchester United vs Liverpool Under 0.5 @11 Bet365. This score will definitely happen more often than only once out of 11 games played, so it's a good value bet for me. Also thought about betting on draw, but found a better bet which covers more of the variance Manchester United vs Liverpool Under 1.5 @3.75 Bet365. So basically I'm betting against the 1-1 score line which is a bookies favorite. I think we will see negative football from the Chosen One and they will be happy with a draw. And if they happen to get a head I think they can hold it until the end, Liverpool is easy to frustrate.
  8. gr8 job over the weekend:ok

  9. gr8 job over the weekend:ok

  10. Premier League Predictions > Mar 1st - 5th

    Leicester vs Bournemouth draw @ 3.70 with Betsafe seems like a value bet, correct line should be something like 2.50 2.86 4.00 imho. There shouldn't be such a wide gap between the clubs as the odds may imply. Swansea vs West Ham, Swansea's last 3 home games have been wins (Liverpool, Arsenal, Burnley) West Ham has lost their last 3 away games. Swansea @ 2.65 with Betsafe seems to be a good bet. Also both teams to score @ 2.08 with Betsafe seems value, it should happen more often than not.
  11. Europa League - Lay the odds on fav

    Good job, do you think it will work in later stages too? My hypothesis is that it wouldn't be as profitable because the odds would be more even.
  12. Premier League Predictions > Jan 30th & 31st

    Arsenal has just 1 WIN of their last 7 away games in all competitions, so I would think twice before betting on them. Also @ 1.51, they offer hardly any value.
  13. Premier League Predictions > Jan 30th & 31st

    Swansea vs Arsenal under 2.5 @ 2.18 Unibet. Expecting similar game as against Liverpool, Swansea is defensively solid if they decide to park the bus, which they do against top clubs. Everton vs Leicester 1x @1.45 Betsafe. I think the market has overreacted to Leicesters recent draw with Chelsea. Although I'm a fan and Leicester are better on the paper, they are notoriously unreliable and should not be favorites away to Everton. I agree, West Ham took a heavy loss losing two of their best offensive players. There is some value in laying the Hammers.
  14. Premier League Predictions > Jan 20th - 22nd

    Riyad Mahrez is playing against a side without a clean sheet in the last 10 Gameweeks. Over that period he has scored five goals.I see value in Riyad Mahrez anytime goalscorer @ 3.00 with Betsafe, medium stakes.
  15. Premier League Predictions > Jan 13th - 15th

    I see many games that could go either way. These are really hard to predict and the odds reflect that. But I think it's a good week for live betting. So I'm going to watch the games and shots statistics and then make bets on the sides that seem stronger. Odds on Swansea win look bit off but I will watch the first 20 minutes or so and then make a bet.