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It is that time of year when we have the big Spring races in Australia and as always I will put my thoughts on the big 4 contests, the Caulfield Cup, The Everest, the Cox Plate and the Melbourne Cup. I nailed the first 3 last year, but annoyingly missed out on the Melbourne Cup winner. If anything else catches my eye then I will add any other tips as well. The Caulfield Cup and The Everest both take place on Saturday and here is my runner-by-runner guide for the big handicap at Caulfield. Just a reminder that in the Australian market it is only 3 places so if having an e/w bet on Bet365 you will only get 3 places.
Kalapour - Caused a shock when landing the G1 Tancred Stakes at Rosehill on Easter Saturday and was then 3rd in the Sydney Cup. Not sure he has been going well enough this prep though to get involved off top weight.Buckaroo - A horse well known to Irish and UK punters. Only had the 1 start over 2400m which was a 5th behind Kalapour in the Tancred, but he has really found his form this prep. He won the G2 Chelmsford over 1600m and followed that up here under Joao Moreira in the Underwood over 1800m. That proves he handles this track and he followed that up with a superb run in the Turnbull at Flemington over 2000m where he just lost out to leading Cox Plate and possibly the best middle distance horse in Australia, Via Sistina. I think he will stay the trip and he did run the best last 600m in the Tancred. Is the favourite but easy to see why.Circle Of Fire - Had a superb Autumn in Sydney when winning the G2 Chairmans and the Sydney Cup in back to back weeks. This prep has been all about getting him ready for the Melbourne Cup and I will be looking for him to run a solid race here with Flemington in mind.Warp Speed - Japanese raider who looks like this is being used as a prep for the Melbourne Cup. Has a terrible draw as well.Huetor - Was 2nd to Buckaroo in the Underwood at huge odds and was still last at the 400m that day. If he can run to that form he would have an e/w squeak, but he was well beaten in the Turnbull last time and doesn't run well often enough for me.Warmonger - The Queensland Derby wouldn't be the strongest G1 held, but he was a hugely impressive 10.5L winner at Eagle Farm on the same day as The Derby was run at Epsom. The 4th to Mr Brightside in the Makybe Diva over 1600m at Flemington on his 1st run of the prep last month was a really pleasing effort although he didn't back that up in the Turnbull. I personally would be prepared to forgive that effort though and back up to 2400m I would expect a much better run. He is drawn in 16 which isn't great, but he is a possible winner.Eliyass - Gai Waterhouse has been speaking up the ex-French 6yo chances this week and it is easy to see why as he won his first 3 races in Oz all over 2000m. He was then 3rd in the Turnbull last time which again was a good effort. I think he will stay, but the big problem for me is he is drawn in 21 which is a shocking effort. He has settled 4th, 2nd and 2nd in his last 3 runs and if he is going to sit that far forward he is surely going to use a bit of petrol getting across. Is another possible winner, but will need a superb ride to win from that draw.Land Legend - Was useful for James Ferguson over here and landed the St Leger at Randwick a year ago. He landed the G1 Metropolitan at the same venue over 2400m 2 weeks ago when he beat Zardozi by a nose. The problem is he was getting 3lbs that day whereas he now has to give her 5lbs and he was arguably lucky to keep the race in the stewards room. A place chance but no more for me.Young Werther - Beat Duke De Sessa over 2000m here at the end of August when they ran with the same weight and then was one place behind him in 5th in the Turnbull again off levels. Has to give him 1lb here so again probably won't be much between them, but I get the sense Duke De Sessa will come out on top again.Duke De Sessa - Was 9th in this last year when he had to settle near the back from a poor draw, but has run consistently well since in some good races despite not actually managing to win one. He has made the running the last 3 times and given he has a better draw this year in 6 he should be able to roll forward again. He was 4th in the Underwood in between the two runs with Young Werther and that was a decent effort. He won over this far when trained by Dermot Weld in Ireland and he could well go close to making all.Knight's Choice - Well beaten in the Underwood and last in the Turnbull so an unlikely winner.Muramasa - Couple of good placed efforts over shorter this prep, but at a lower level than this and would be surprise if he was good enough.Zardozi - As mentioned above was arguably unlucky not to be given the Metropolitan in the stewards room. That was the 4th run of the prep and she looks to be peaking now she is up to 2400m. Won the Kennedy Oaks over that trip last year and was 2nd in the ATC Oaks back in April. What could also be key is if the rain hits big time then she is 4/6 on soft and 1/1 on heavy. Looks a player for Andrea Atzeni.Coco Sun - Beat Warmonger in the South Australian Derby, but she hasn't really kicked on from that albeit at a shorter distance. Could do better up to 2400m, but stall 20 isn't going to help at all.Deny Knowledge - Trained by John Quinn over here and was last seen finishing 6th at York 3 years ago off a mark of 72. She has now won at Listed, G3, G2 and then last time at G1 level when winning the Caulfield Stakes over 2000m last Saturday. She beat Mr Brightside there and set a fast pace from the front and was able to hold on by 0.75L. She isn't going to be able to repeat those tactics from stall 17 in a race like this and also going to be tough to repeat that just 7 days later.Valiant King - Was a solid 6th in this last year when trained by Joseph O'Brien, but has not run well in either start this prep for new trainer Chris Waller. You couldn't rule out a bold showing on last year's run or his 2nd to Vauban in the Ballyroan last August, but stall 18 isn't helpful when added to her two runs this prep.Positivity - Was 2nd in the New Zealand Oaks and landed the South Australian Classic in May. Was 2nd here first up over 1700 and then won over 2000m in a G3 here. Went up to 2520m at Flemington in the Bart Cummings a couple of weeks ago and wasn't able to feature from a poor draw. Better draw here and could run OK at a price.Sayedaty Sadaty - Was purchased by current owners after finishing a very good 5th in the Derby. He kept going and clearly stayed the 1m4f well. That was for Andrew Balding and he then moved to David Simcock for his Gordon Stakes run at Goodwood. It was possibly a little disappointing that he peaked in the final 200m that day, but Jan Brueghel won the St Leger and the 2nd Bellum Justum won a big pot in America so the form has a rock solid look. I'd also say he probably wasn't in peak condition given Australia would have been the main aim. He is now in the hands of Ciaron Maher who has been very happy with him since he arrived in Oz and from stall 2 he looks a big player off bottom weight.Verdict - Sayedaty Sadaty, Zardozi, Duke de Sessa, Warmonger, Eliyass and Buckeroo look the 6 to focus on for me. Eliyass' draw is enough for me not to want to back him. Whilst I am happy to forgive Warmonger's last time effort again the draw isn't ideal. I have to have Buckeroo onside because he looks in career best form at the moment and the Turnbull effort was first class. Zardozi is also in peak form and if the rain comes then confidence would be even higher for her. I will make Sayedaty Sadaty the main winner though as he looks over priced on his UK form and looks a fairly solid e/w play at double figure odds. I will also have a small e/w play on Duke de Sessa who I can see lasting a long way from the front and given it can be hard to make up ground at Caulfield that could be a big advantage.Sayedaty Sadaty e/w @ 14/1 to 4 places or 12/1 to 5 places with William HillZardozi @ 13/2 with Betfair and Paddy PowerBuckeroo @ 7/2 with William HillDuke de Sessa e/w @ 18/1 to 5 places with William Hill -
3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
I believe that I have to get over perceiving that shorter priced selections have a better chance of winning.
As a starting position, the shorter priced selections do have a better chance of winning. Unless you've got some information that you don't think is taken account of in the price then respect the price. The market is usually right more or less, it can't afford not to be. Everyone likes to think they know better than the oddsmakers, and whilst there are occasional ricks they are few and far between.
Of course there are individual bets that are out of line - if there weren't then it's a zero-sum game and the only people winning would be the brokers (bookies and exchanges) laying the bets - but generally an even money shot wins half of the time so consequently the higher you go with your odds the more you can expect your bets to lose.
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Bet 6:
£320.92 on Tomic to beat Ilagan @1.16.
Tomic currently 4 games to 2 up in the first set.
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This is the final ET event of the year. The final 32 players after this event will make the European Championships
With no Joyce (32nd) it means Pikachu could sneak the top 32 with a semi final minimum
Woodhouse (35th) could also sneak top 32 but he would have to win the event.
Current ranking around 30k (winning purse) And by my math, only these 2 can jump into the top 32 :Woodhouse- must win event
Pie - must make semi finalsWoodhouse was playing some terrible stuff yesterday otherwise I’d have a little outsider bet on him. Pie looks the interesting one.
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15 minutes ago, harry_rag said:
And if my auntie was differently endowed she could be my uncle, as the old saying more or less goes! I can see the merit of reviewing your selection process after the event to see if you can improve things going forward but you have to be wary of been buffeted one way and another all the time. It’s always easy to spot the best bet of the day after the event. Reacting to it won’t necessarily lead to improved performance.
If you don’t do it already I’d suggest one of the best things you could do is track what your returns would be to level stakes singles. If you show a loss that way then you can expect more of a loss from doing L15s unless you get lucky and hit a big win. But you could see if your selection process improves more easily by monitoring returns that way, and see what price points you do better at.
The data will tell you more if looked at as, say, 400 single selections than 100 lucky 15s.
Then again, I appreciate not everyone will want to gather and analyse that level of data if betting purely for fun. In which case I’m back to saying be wary of over reacting to the occasional one that got away, as they stick in the mind far more than the horses you swerve that run like an out and out rag.
Many thanks Harry. I have encountered the above phenomena a few times over the previous months. I suspect that listing the selections out individually may well show losses. I benefit from the treble payout for a single bet if I only get one winner in the L15. Singles bets are poison to me, especially as I like to have multiple bets every day for fun. I keep relating my balance to April 24 when it was around -95 points. It seems to take a walk from there and return back to it. I almost cleared it recently had a 4th runner won. I am happy to chug along doing what I am doing with a view to reviewing it at the end of the year. I will probably only drastically change the selection method for the Naps comp. It doesn't matter if I get it wrong there as it is free anyway.
I do include quite a few outsiders in my L15's these days anyway. This is just an ongoing project that for once has enabled me to have all manner of L15's on any day and I haven't incurred significant losses so I must be doing something right.
The main objective is to have several bets each day without losing my shirt and enjoy watching a lot of races with an interest in them.
I hope to clear my deficit by the end of the year. Increased turnover in the number of L15's, when I have time to do them, may assist me in my goal.
Thanks again
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