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It is that time of year when we have the big Spring races in Australia and as always I will put my thoughts on the big 4 contests, the Caulfield Cup, The Everest, the Cox Plate and the Melbourne Cup. I nailed the first 3 last year, but annoyingly missed out on the Melbourne Cup winner. If anything else catches my eye then I will add any other tips as well. The Caulfield Cup and The Everest both take place on Saturday and here is my runner-by-runner guide for the big handicap at Caulfield. Just a reminder that in the Australian market it is only 3 places so if having an e/w bet on Bet365 you will only get 3 places.

3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I believe that I have to get over perceiving that shorter priced selections have a better chance of winning.

As a starting position, the shorter priced selections do have a better chance of winning. Unless you've got some information that you don't think is taken account of in the price then respect the price. The market is usually right more or less, it can't afford not to be. Everyone likes to think they know better than the oddsmakers, and whilst there are occasional ricks they are few and far between.

Of course there are individual bets that are out of line - if there weren't then it's a zero-sum game and the only people winning would be the brokers (bookies and exchanges) laying the bets - but generally an even money shot wins half of the time so consequently the higher you go with your odds the more you can expect your bets to lose.

Bet 6:

£320.92 on Tomic to beat Ilagan @1.16.

Tomic currently 4 games to 2 up in the first set.

This is the final ET event of the year. The final 32 players after this event will make the European Championships 

With no Joyce (32nd) it means Pikachu could sneak the top 32 with a semi final minimum 

Woodhouse (35th) could also sneak top 32 but he would have to win the event. 

Current ranking around 30k (winning purse) And by my math, only these 2 can jump into the top 32 :

Woodhouse- must win event 
Pie - must make semi finals 

Woodhouse was playing some terrible stuff yesterday otherwise I’d have a little outsider bet on him. Pie looks the interesting one.

15 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

And if my auntie was differently endowed she could be my uncle, as the old saying more or less goes! I can see the merit of reviewing your selection process after the event to see if you can improve things going forward but you have to be wary of been buffeted one way and another all the time. It’s always easy to spot the best bet of the day after the event. Reacting to it won’t necessarily lead to improved performance.

If you don’t do it already I’d suggest one of the best things you could do is track what your returns would be to level stakes singles. If you show a loss that way then you can expect more of a loss from doing L15s unless you get lucky and hit a big win. But you could see if your selection process improves more easily by monitoring returns that way, and see what price points you do better at.

The data will tell you more if looked at as, say, 400 single selections than 100 lucky 15s.

Then again, I appreciate not everyone will want to gather and analyse that level of data if betting purely for fun. In which case I’m back to saying be wary of over reacting to the occasional one that got away, as they stick in the mind far more than the horses you swerve that run like an out and out rag.

Many thanks Harry.  I have encountered the above phenomena a few times over the previous months.  I suspect that listing the selections out individually may well show losses.  I benefit from the treble payout for a single bet if I only get one winner in the L15. Singles bets are poison to me, especially as I like to have multiple bets every day for fun.  I keep relating my balance to April 24 when it was around -95 points.  It seems to take a walk from there and return back to it.  I almost cleared it recently had a 4th runner won.  I am happy to chug along doing what I am doing with a view to reviewing it at the end of the year.  I will probably only drastically change the selection method for the Naps comp.  It doesn't matter if I get it wrong there as it is free anyway.

I do include quite a few outsiders in my L15's these days anyway.  This is just an ongoing project that for once has enabled me to have all manner of L15's on any day and I haven't incurred significant losses so I must be doing something right.

The main objective is to have several bets each day without losing my shirt and enjoy watching a lot of races with an interest in them. 

I hope to clear my deficit by the end of the year.  Increased turnover in the number of L15's, when I have time to do them, may assist me in my goal. 

Thanks again