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  1. 6 points
    LEE-GRAYS

    Racing Chat - Tuesday Sep 15th

    get in there won 33/1 glad i got 40/1 if only the 100/1lol
  2. 6 points
    Beautiful ....mr Lupton does the business 130pts returned
  3. 5 points
    1st and 3rd ....close on the trifecta...roundhay wins 60pts returned
  4. 4 points
    Darran

    Non-League Predictions > September 19th

    So the first Saturday of the season and who knows how many more we will get so let's see if we can make some cash whilst we can. I have 5 bets and here are my brief thoughts. Bishops Stortford v Bognor I was close to putting Bognor up as an ante-post bet and certainly think they can get off to a winning start against a Stortford side who look set for a season of struggle. Cray Wanderers v Kingstonian This is the value play of the day. I have put Kingstonian up as a bet to win the title and as much as I think Cray can put themselves in the promotion picture again I do think Kingstonian are a big price to take 3 points here. As I said in the ante-post preview if Kingstonian weren't far away last season and I think the amount of draws and the games in hand they hand masked their true level. Add into the fact they have strengthened and I think they have a better chance of winning here than the bookies have them. Dorchester v Weston-Super-Mare I think Weston will go very well this season and they have a very strong side. Dorchester struggled last term and although they might improve a bit on that this is a very tough start for them. Barwell v Lowestoft I think Lowestoft are going to be in for a real season of struggle this term. After seasons of having cash, they don't really have any at the moment. Barwell look a solid mid-table side and they should be able to pick up 3 points to start the season. Atherton Collieries v Scarborough The home side look to have one of the smallest budgets in the league and they look relegation contenders. Darren Kelly has got a decent looking side at Scarborough and he will be hoping they can make the play-offs. They will certainly be expecting 3 points to start the season. Bognor 2pts @ 11/8 with William Hill Kingstonian 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365 Weston-Super-Mare 2pts @ Evs with Bet365 Scarborough 1pt @ 7/5 with William Hill Barwell 2pts @ 21/20 with William Hill
  5. 4 points
    I'm going to go against most of you as I just don't fancy Leeds at those prices. Two newly promoted teams, and no real home advantage with the lack of fans. I wouldn't want to be on Leeds at 1.66 which seems to be the best price at the moment. They managed to lose in the cup to at home to Hull midweek, while Fulham managed a 1-0 win at Ipswich. I know Leeds probably didn't care about the cup, but even so, you'd expect them to beat a Hull team (who also probably didn't care) who have just been relegated to league 1. Fulham +1 at 2.38 with Betfair with a low stake is my bet on this game. Agree with @neilovan about Palace being a banana skin match for Man U. Again i'm on the away side with a +1 handicap for this one at 3.5 with paddy power. Reasoning is this is Man Utd's first game since the europa league exit, whereas Palace have a game under their belts and I thought were impressive in their game against Southampton last week. Admittedly they managed to lose to Bournemouth on penalties in the week, but I assume weren't fussed about the game. Palace won this game last season, and have a habit of winning away at the bigger teams. Finally, going with Newcastle again who did the business for me last week. The bookies have Newcastle as only slight favourites which seems wrong given Newcastle finished well above Brighton last season, and have strengthened the team well IMO for this season. Brighton still lack a proven goalscorer, and had to play on Thursday so two days less rest than Newcastle. Newcastle at 2.8 is a great price all things considered.
  6. 4 points
    Darran

    Non-League Ante Post 2020/21

    Usually I write this at the end of July so it certainly seems strange to be writing it in mid-September. One of the the other strange things is the fact that the 4 Step 3 leagues start before the National League's and that has meant bookies have been very slow in pricing it up and as I type this Bet365 are the only ones who have priced up all 4. That's great news, but what isn't great news is the fact they aren't taking any each-way bets in those divisions. I have been in contact with them and been told it was a trading decision. It is really frustrating and although I was putting up some win only bets anyway, there were certainly teams who made e/w appeal. These 4 leagues were made null and void in March and that means we have the best form guide we have ever had and it is no surprise that the 4 favourites were those 4 teams who would have likely won their divisions for Covid-19 hadn't hit. I must admit it wouldn't be a big surprise if we end up with another non-completion this season so that added to the fact the season starts in 2 days time means these previews are going to be pretty brief. Also the National League's don't start until October (crowd restrictions allowing) so I won't be previewing them just yet as I am waiting for more bookies to price up Step 2 and with the Macclesfield situation most bookies have pulled their National League prices. Pitching In Northern Premier League South Shields tried everything they could to get promotion once the season was declared null and void, but it was just a complete waste of money as they were never going to get the decision overturned. Not surprisingly they are warm favourites at 11/8 for the title and I actually think that price is value. Money is still no issue for the club and they were a notch above their league rivals last season. They ought to be winning the title this season. I can see FCUM, Warrington, Basford and Morpeth all going well again, but I am going to cover Buxton who have strengthened really well over the break. They look to have a bit of cash based on who they have been signing. Pitching In Isthmian Premier Division I've backed Kingstonian the last two seasons and I am going to put them up again at 16/1 which is too big a price. On the basis they have got a fair bit of ground on Worthing as they were 10th when the season finished and 24 points behind them. They did have 3 games in hand though and they only actually lost one more game than Worthing. The problem was they drew 14 of their 31 games and that obviously cost them big time. It shows though that they aren't far away and they look to have improved again on paper over the break. They can be the one team to make the leap from mid-table to title contenders. Obviously Worthing are contenders having looked set to win the title when the season was stopped, but my other bet will be Hornchurch. They were another team who drew too many games last season having only lost 5 games. They had the best defence in the league and they look to have a good team yet again. At 10/1 they are worth backing as well. Pitching In Southern Premier League Central Tamworth were my main bets in this league last year and I think they would have won the league if it had of continued. They will be the main bets again this time around at 3/1. They look to have an even better squad this time around and I think they might be quite hard to beat. I also want Stourbridge on side. Getting Mark Yates in as manager was a cracking bit of business and he is more than capable of getting the best out of a strong looking squad. Pitching In Southern Premier League South 3 against the field for me here. I really fancied Weston-Super-Mare last season and they disappointed a bit although towards the end they were getting it together. They have signed really well over the break and as long as it all comes together on the pitch they have one of the best sides in the division. Truro were the most likely winners prior to lockdown and they have got stronger if anything so I have to have them on side. The final bet is Taunton. They went so close to pipping Weymouth two seasons ago and seemed to feel the effects of that last season where they under performed a bit. I expect them to do much better this time around. South Shields 3pts @ 11/8 with Bet365 Buxton 0.5pts @ 9/1 with Bet365 Kingstonian 1pt @ 16/1 with Bet365 AFC Hornchurch 1pt @ 10/1 with Bet365 Tamworth 2pts @ 5/1 with William Hill Stourbridge 0.5pts @ 14/1 with Bet365 Weston-Super-Mare 1.5pts @ 7/1 with Bet365 Truro 1pt @ 5/1 with Bet365 Taunton 0.5pts @ 14/1 with Bet365
  7. 4 points
    1.15 Pontefract - 1pt e/w Wanted @ 25/1 Bet365 Has to come on plenty for a poor debut run and has a wide draw here so neither ideal but given the price in a weak race, will give Richard Fahey's runner another go. Is a full sibling to three other racehorses, all of which won races and were fairly useful. Whether coincidence or not, these weren't up to much first time out either and it was soft ground when this one made its debut. Its siblings preferred top of the ground so with better ground on offer here and experience under its belt, hopefully can show more at a big price. 2.50 Pontefract - 1pt e/w Rory And Me @ 10/1 Bet365 May be the outsider of the party here but has plenty of form which ought to give him a chance here. Was an excellent 3rd on seasonal reappearance after wind surgery at Ripon and although flopping there last time, that was in a class 3 handicap on slow ground. This should suit better and is a winning bumper horse who should enjoy the 2 mile trip here around this track. Better ground helps and looks capable of bouncing back. 3.00 Ayr - 1pt e/w Morisco @ 12/1 PP Still fairly lightly raced and would have a good chance here on his reappearance win at Haydock. Got the job done readily that day ahead of a horse who has run well off higher marks since and Morisco has had excuses on soft ground before running as well as could realistically be expected in a Group 3 last time. This is easier, conditions suit and could find more progress. 3.20 Pontefract - 1pt e/w Benadalid @ 10/1 Bet365 Was outclassed at York a couple of starts back and seemed to find the test too sharp around Haydock last time but was a ready winner at Ripon three starts back off just 1lb lower than what he goes off here and this is an easier assignment today than what he's faced recently. This track ought to suit with a stiff finish playing to his strengths and if getting a decent pace and the splits at the right time, could go close. 4.20 Pontefract - 1pt e/w Irv @ 16/1 Bet365 Hasn't had conditions to suit the last twice, racing over 1m2f which he doesn't seem to stay and in softish conditions. A mile on good ground is much more up his street, as when a good 2nd on seasonal reappearance. Has dropped a few pounds since then having run in those races where he was always likely to struggle and if getting a pace to run at and the breaks from a slightly less than ideal draw, could go well.
  8. 4 points
    https://www.the-nomads.co.uk/news/article.php?id=1051 Connah's Quay were underdogs for their game with Dinamo Tblisi anyway but it's been confirmed three of their squad players have tested positive covid-19 and they're playing the game regardless. This could be a tough night of action for the Nomads. I'd advise backing the away side to win by 3-4 goals at least.
  9. 4 points
    Perfect Storm

    Covid: The Perfect Storm!!!

    Aye, well, the devil is always in the detail, so it should help folks if you give them the detail, plus an insight into the logic and discipline that I deploy. Betting is a COLD / HARD game, one that few people manage to break even on, let alone show a profit, and if you do show a profit the algorithms that the Bookies now employ will soon root you out and kick you out. No one runs a tighter ship with their algorithms than Bet365 or Billy Hills, but all the Bookies are at it. I've served my time betting, had some memorable wins, but over the last 50 years I guess I've burned £250,000 possibly more, does that sound like "betting for fun" to you ? Knowing how hard a game betting is I try my best to steer young lads away from it, one of the lads in his 20's that goes in the pub I drink in always asks me if I'm having a bet, ever since I put him onto South Africa to win the RU World Cup, he had 200 quid on at 9/2 and since then always asks if I'm having a bet. I try to slow him down, but when yer young you want it now, patience doesn't run in their race. We walked into Billy Hills yesterday to get a few more quid on the 50/1 shot, I was already well invested on the bet, but I couldn't resist throwing another 20 quid on it, a grand to 20 quid is warth taking, Jim had the same. I'm amazed that the odds are still there. Anyway, as we went in I asked Jim "which one of these ragged assed owd men would you like to be 40 years from now". I think he got the point.. They, like me, were all Jim's age 40 years ago, they started out with nothing and, thanks to Betting Shops they still have most of it left. None of them ever looks back as what this addiction cost them over the last 10, 20 or 40 years, more than their house is worth for some of them, but almost certainly more than they have in a bank account after a life time of grafting. It's not even as though it's "easy come, easy go" most folks in my generation worked / grafted for their wages, so it never was "easy come" but due to the addiction that gambling is it certainly is easy go, never to be seen again. The Bookies are RUTHLESS those machines they put in their shops they have cost some folks their every penny they had, some even went into debt to continue getting their Fixed Odds Terminal Fix, sadly some lost more than their money, some lost everything and finished up topping themselves. I wouldn't touch FOBT's with a barge pole, they are the crack cocaine of the Betting Shops, thousands of lives have been ruined due to FOBT's. Knowing how RUTHLESS Bookies are I put my "work" in where they don't look. When Saturday rolls around I scour the non league games looking on Twitter for teams that are struggling to put a full team out, without having to call on the coach driver to play in goal or the turnstile man to play centre back, and Office Staff just to make the team up, that actually happened one memorable day. You might remember when Merthyr Town couldn't put a team out a couple of years ago, thanks to Twitter I'd picked up on that Friday night when FEW IF ANY folks outside of Merthyr had heard what was going on, I spent 2 hours backing Chesham {WHO ARE YA} who the **** had EVER heard of Chesham !!! Most of the online Bookies had a £200 limit on the game, but I hammered them all to whatever limit they had. I was up with the larks Saturday morning putting £100 here and £100 there in the shops until the Bookies cottoned on and started dropping their prices from 11/8 Chesham to 1/3 I even bet them at that. It was pathetic for Merthyr, they were 4-0 down in 15 minutes, and 9-0 down by half time, if memory serves me well Chesham were winning 12-0 when the Chesham supporters were shouting "let them get a goal" they did the decent thing the game finished 13-1. The Man of the Match award was given to Merthyr's 15 year old goalkeeper !!! https://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/crisis-hit-merthyr-town-humiliated-13921420 That result got my accounts closed with 7 Bookmakers, they were hissed off because I knew what they didn't, that's the only way to win, now and again, but you have to wait for events like that, most folks don't have that discipline, they NEED their FIX. Good as it was {to get one ore the Bookies} there was a more memorable bet, a three horse race headed by Little Owl the horse that had at one time won the Gold Cup at Cheltenham, race in a 3 horse race, against Venture to Cognac {a good but past his best chaser} and Great Dean, a decent jumper but I could have done 3 miles faster in my day. The betting was 1/3 Little Owl, 7/2 Venture to Cognac, 150/1 Great Dean, have you any idea what the Computer Straight Forecast would be in Little Owl didn't finish the course, are you ahead of me yet ? a bunch of us put fivers on here, there and everywhere, can't say why 😉 but here's what happened... "The 1982 Fulwell Chase at Kempton Park appeared a mundane contest. True, the Gold Cup winner Little Owl was in attendance but he faced only two rivals in Venture To Cognac and Great Dean. "Venture To Cognac had some useful form to his credit but had become injury-prone and was considered to need the run. As for Great Dean, he had been pulled up at lowly Fontwell and needed a miracle if he was to win such a valuable prize. "Little Owl was sent off the 4-11 favourite, Venture To Cognac 7-2 with Great Dean appearing for all the world a lost cause at 150-1. "As far as winning the race was concerned, Great Dean was virtually friendless. On the course and in the betting shops it was only the odd `just-for-fun' merchant and habitues of the `outsider-of-three' system who gave him even a moment's consideration. "Or so it seemed. But dotted about the country were a handful of shrewd punters who had spotted the chance to make a killing on the race. A chance, that's all. Those shrewdies didn't expect to pickup but knew exceptional value when they saw it. "And what a killing! Not only were these punters expecting to receive odds of around 150-1 on their bet, they were also gleefully awaiting the chance to make fools of the big bookmakers. "For once, the bookmakers had made a `rick' and a mighty serious one at that. "The mistake was in the format for the then relatively new Computerised Straight Forecast (CSF), which allowed for inflated dividends should a long-priced outsider make the frame in a small field. "The Fulwell Chase offered an ideal chance to exploit this loophole. All it needed was for Little Owl to fail to complete the course (as he had done at Cheltenham on his previous start) and this would enable Venture To Cognac to win with Great Dean hopefully putting in a clear round to come second. "The race went entirely to script for these backers. Little Owl leading by 10 lengths with just 3 to go, then coming to the second last and seemingly going well, he swerved and was pulled up by jockey and part-owner Jim Wilson at the 10th. "This left Venture To Cognac clear of the already tailed-off Great Dean a full fence behind. The former sauntered round to win by a distance and Great Dean, with forecast backers holding their breath, Great Dean went over the last like a spider, one leg at a time, completed in his own time to earn a place in the history books. Jim Wilson reported that Little Owl's bit had reportedly slipped, but the bookmakers were not happy, especially when they realised the extent of their liabilities. "Payment was held back while BOLA and the racing authorities carried out an investigation into the race. No evidence of any misdemeanour was produced and the bookmakers, suitably chastened, eventually paid out. "They also called in their computer people to change the format of the CSF to avoid such inflated dividends in small fields in the future, and the result was what is disingenuously referred to as the `Harmonic formula' for producing CSF dividends. Today, if Venture To Cognac were to beat Great Dean in identical circumstances, backers would receive odds of only 15-1. But on the day the CSF paid £75 to 50p I had 30 quid on the bet, all in all between me and the lads in the White Lion we had £75 on the bets and we cleaned several Bookies out that day. These events are rare birds, but you never forget how sweet the meat was... All in all, REMEMBER what Gus Demmy told me, the less often you bet, the more often you win, if you want to get an edge, do yer homework... Anon.
  10. 3 points
    Tottaly discussed at that comment to be honest. Nobody likes a bit of banter more than me and i have been guilty of calling my own tips crap but you don't even bother to take the time to put horse slections on here as for Darren he has had some fantastic days on his his slections from oz and the amount of time and effort he puts in with his detailed views is excellent where mine are repetative and at times minimal. We all have bad runs but it will not be long before Darren is knocking in the winners in again we should be incouraging the guys that have the guts to post there tips regularly here and spend a lot of time studing they shoud be aplauded and encouraged, Negative comments are not warranted or wanted imo. Think before you post. Rant over.
  11. 3 points
    There are always ups and downs in betting and it's your choice whether to follow or not. Darran has always given a lot of time and effort for predictions on football and horses for many years on this forum. (Also, making profits mostly too.) Much appreciation to @Darran!
  12. 3 points
    You seem to totally misunderstand what one should do with horse racing tips from dedicated members of the forum. I counted 387 horses running today in the UK! Many members do a lot of work in trying to identify value bets for us all. The logical approach is to JUST take a closer look at the selections that are put up and try to see for yourself if there is an angle for a value bet that you might otherwise have missed. You have to do some work yourself. You will fail otherwise. Finally, if you give a dog a bone you don't expect it to come back and complain do you?
  13. 3 points
  14. 3 points
    Trotter

    £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome

    return 105.00, profit 85.00 this month - minus 48.36 welcome win ! ...... and I picked the right one for Nap of the Day .... 🙂
  15. 3 points
    Leeds v Fulham Watched most of the first weekends games and Fulham definitely stood out as being poor. Arsenal are not a great away team, but it was a stroll in the park for them. Fulham barely created a chance. They look out of their league at the moment. Leeds were very good against Liverpool, and slightly unlucky. They ran out of steam towards the end of the game. They should have way too much for a limited Fulham side. I would expect goals in this game, as Leeds look very open at the back, but show some style and skill going forward. It won't be dull! Prediction : Leeds home win and over 2.5 goals : Odds 2.63
  16. 3 points
    Have to highlight Kovinic here. I liked the girl back in the day, but she had some horrible results until this part of the season. Nice to see her back!
  17. 3 points
    BillyHills

    Racing Chat - Tuesday Sep 15th

    Another big winner today
  18. 3 points
    LEE-GRAYS

    Naps - Tuesday Sept 15th

    3.05 Tipperary Na caith tobac 40/1 e/w bet365
  19. 3 points
    BillyHills

    Naps - Monday 14th September

    Sold our house and just made an offer on another one in the Scottish Highlands. Fingers crossed now
  20. 2 points
    Sorry if iam wrong Andy been tracking Darren 18 months but you only joined July if I am wrong sorry 👍
  21. 2 points
    LEE-GRAYS

    Lee's USA Racing

    Gulfstream race 1 tireless champion 14/1 race 2 upsy daisy do 8/1 race 3 cozy cafe 9/2 race 4 barbies king 20/1 race 5 Shanghai moon 25/1 race 6 vow saver 14/1 race 7 el Zeus 11/1 race 8 max k.o. 8/1 race 9 artista 22/1 race 10 road to peace 25/1 race 11 joe di baggio 16/1 race 12 Cajun embers 40/1 all bets 50p e/w bet365 good luck 🤞🤞👍
  22. 2 points
    Squirrel Nutkin

    US Open

    I thought I'd get this up early. There are so many previews out there already I can see a lot of the picks getting backed and the value disappearing. My main bets are on, but will no doubt have a few more before Thursday. I'm sure Fader will be here with another quality write up, but for now these are my picks: Patrick Reed 2.5pt ew @ 33/1 skybet Patrick Reed 1st rd leader and outright 1pt @ 125/1 Tommy Fleetwood 2pt ew @ 35/1 hills Sky are slightly shorter prices, but paying a very generous 11 places. Went with Hills for Fleetwood as he was an extra 10 points but paying 9 places.
  23. 2 points
    Thought i'd put all three races in the same thread Bronze Cup Friday 3.55 1pt EW Call Me Ginger 7/1 bet365 5 places 1pt EW Alben Spirit 8/1 Hills 5 places Silver Cup Sat 2.30 1pt EW Admirality 14/1 bet365 4 places 1pt EW Danzan 33/1 bet365 4 places Gold Cup Sat 3.40 1pt EW Kynren 28/1 Betvic 5 places 1pt EW Major Jumbo 25/1 PP 6 places
  24. 2 points
    vikki37

    Lee's USA Racing

    nope haha my bad luck. good luck with your bets today and for the k.o. comp! 🤞
  25. 2 points
    1.20 Ayr - 2pts win Recovery Run @ 4/1 Bet365 A few in here with chances but Andrew Balding's runner has been going well despite races not quite going his way in my eyes. Won from a smart type in a novice two starts back and was narrowly held in a slowly run race at Kempton last time. Looks like he wants a stronger test - no surprise being by Nathaniel - and hopefully a better pace here and the slightly more testing ground will help with that. Still looks fairly handicapped and hopefully can outstay these at the finish. 1.40 Newbury - 1pt win Wise Words @ 7/1 Bet365 I backed Equilateral at York and whilst clearly has a chance, I'm not convinced by him to be honest. Travelled well and despite not having a lot of room, didn't exactly pick up when in the clear. I think he needs a real fast pace to run at so I'm just going to side against with the progressive Wise Words. Plenty of good form last year and although in handicaps, was narrowly beaten by Tinto giving 8lbs away when running off a mark of 90, with the pair 6 lengths clear, so was not just any old handicapper. Was a big eyecatcher last time out when having to fall back towards the rear having found a wall of horses in front but stayed on powerfully late on. Hopefully this doesn't come too soon today as if it doesn't, looks a live contender. 2.15 Newbury - 1pt e/w Kingbrook @ 10/1 Bet365 Shaped very well when 3rd after a long absence, just behind Tenbury Wells and was always likely to come into his own over middle distances. Plenty of worthwhile form over 7f and a mile last year but ought to come on for reappearance and conditions suit off a fair mark so ought to go well. 2.30 Ayr - 2pts win King's Lynn @ 4/1 Bet365 Nothing original about selecting the short price favourite in a huge field but if he's on the right part of the track will take the world of beating in my eyes. Looks more than fairly handicapped on form to date, still unexposed and ought to come on for his clear 2nd to a now 111-rated rival last time out. Done nothing wrong so far, any give in the ground won't inconvenience on pedigree and looks the one to be on here. 3.40 Ayr - 1pt e/w Another Batt @ 18/1 Bet365 Hung right throughout last time in Ireland and is worth giving him another chance on the basis of his smooth reappearance win. I thought a testing 6f would help him and he ought to relish the big field pace on offer here. Has enough speed to live with these and get into the race if the gaps appear and back down to 6f off a mark that still looks fair on old form, could bounce back, especially as that win came from off the pace with the next few home all racing prominently throughout.
  26. 2 points
    Not a nice thing to say , we all have bad / good runs , what are your top 4 picks with write ups for today ? Good luck 👍
  27. 2 points
    Leeds vs Fulham The second game in the Premier League this weekend is between newly promoted clubs Leeds and Fulham in a 3pm BST kick-off on Saturday afternoon from Elland Road. @Ameer13, keen to hear your thoughts after reading what I'm about to put. Both teams lost their opening games of the new season but will be coming into this game with different levels of self-belief based on their performances. Leeds have undoubtedly been the most high-profile promotion to the English top flight possibly since Manchester City returned back in 2002. Marcelo Bielsa has managed what 14 managers had failed to do at different points before him and guide the club back to the promised land. The Whites stormed to the Championship title last season with their high intense pressing style of play. It was no surprise to those of us that have watched them a fair bit in the Championship that they gave the reigning champions Liverpool a cracking game in their 4-3 opening day defeat. The team have also managed to score 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 7 home matches. The 1-1 draw with Hull followed by a 9-8 defeat on pens saw back-up players fielded in the main so Bielsa has ensured his first team are ready for this encounter. Fulham have been tipped to finish bottom of the Premier League this season by a lot of people and I have to agree with that. Scott Parker's side looked every bit as out of their depth as we all suspected. A 3-0 loss at home to Arsenal could have been an even worse score-line on another day. The 1-0 win away to League One side Ipswich in the EFL Cup 2nd Round was hardly inspirational either. It was also surprising to see Parker pick a strong side for that game too. Maybe he felt some players needed more game time given the shortened off-season period. These two sides only met back in June when Leeds prevailed as 3-0 winners at home. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a similar score-line in this one. I wasn't overly impressed with Fulham when Cardiff played them last season. As I said about West Brom, we were a bang average side and they struggled to get past us. Leeds should turn them over by at least a couple of goals with their high press play. Leeds to Win @ 1.67 with Boylesports Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.95 with BetVictor
  28. 2 points
    1.10 Catterick - 1pt win Crown Princess @ 6/1 Bet365 I don't think the favourite is thrown in here and the drop back to a sharp 5f might not be ideal either so is worth taking on. I think Crown Princess could be the one to take advantage - couldn't get involved from off the pace when not having the clearest of passages at Wolverhampton last time but would have a good chance on any of her prominent efforts over 5f including when winning comfortably here. Hopefully will not get as far back today and can burn them off late in the day I hope. 2.30 Newbury - 2pts win Humanitarian @ 4/1 Bet365 Very interesting runner having run well in last year's Derby and if returning in anything like that form would go very close off a mark of 102. Flopped at Ascot subsequently but had excuses that day and returns here still relatively unexposed and for a powerful yard who can ready one after an absence. On any run other than his last effort he'd look well handicapped off this mark so worth chancing at a backable price. 3.40 Newbury - 2pts win Jumby @ 4/1 Bet365 Ran a very good race to win on debut and then didn't have the race to suit last time out - racing keenly off a modest gallop before keeping on without threatening. I thought he was the best horse in the race despite only coming home in 4th and is well worth another chance today. 3.20 Ayr - 1pt e/w Magical Journey @ 7/1 Bet365 I think these conditions will really suit Magical Journey who did well when coming off the pace at Pontefract last time to do best of those held up and I just think the extended 5f with a bit of give in the ground could be the making of him. Has run many sound races to make his handicap mark look fair, and even running to his mark here would see a good run. I think a few extra pounds can be eked out under these conditions and looks a good e/w bet. 3.55 Ayr - 1pt e/w Abstemious @ 14/1 Bet365 Consistent type who has been running well and again these conditions look spot on. Has run respectably over 7f and 6f including on quicker ground but a slower surface and a strong test over 6f looks absolutely perfect for this one and has cheekpieces added for this afternoon. Looks sure to run his race and is a decent price now getting perfect conditions if getting the necessary luck with a clear run and being on the right part of the track. 4.15 Newbury - Kinross @ 4/1 Bet365 Has found his feet again back down in class and looked the likely winner 2f out last time out when kicking for home early on soft ground over a mile. I came out of that thinking better ground would help him and shouldn't have a problem back down to 7f either. This is another drop in class to listed level and he gets a handy weight for age allowance here too.
  29. 2 points
    Harry Rag !!! Blimey you must be older than me 😉 just 🙂 I presume you refer to Harry Wragg ? That 15/2 looks a knocking bet, I'll see what I can get on at that price, thanks for the heads up on that... Anon.
  30. 2 points
    Just a bit of additional info to boost the Kovinic campaign. Yesterday Mertens withdrew from the doubles for reasons she gave as sickness. She also had a medical timeout yesterday that had to do with a nose bleed plus considering her recent run at the US Open it would seem about the right time for a change of the guards.
  31. 2 points
    Aga Radwańska born child few weeks ago so she dont have time for forum. 😜
  32. 2 points
    Costello

    Naps - Friday 18th September

    Kempton 6,10 In The Red @ 20/1 Bet365
  33. 2 points
    Hi all. First time poster, long(ish) time lurker - especially for the tennis tips and discussion. I just wanted to chime in regarding the Stan vs Musetti discussion. if you guys didn't watch the Wawrinka vs. Musetti match, how can you decide based on a scoreline alone that he 'tanked' a match or didn't bother cos Rome isn't a grand slam? I watched the whole match. Sure, Musetti is only 18 and was an unknown prior to the event. He was also outstanding. Imagine Federer and Djokovic having a tall Italian love-child and you wouldn't be far off. In the second set Stan battled and had chances to get back into it but lost tie break. Throughout he looked fired up and wanted to win. Maybe he lacked fitness and/or was carrying an injury, idk, but imo Musetti was just way too good. It's for this reason that he beat Nishikori in straight sets. Absolute wonderkid! Over to the women's tournament and a bet I quite like is Ka. Pliskova to win her Q @2.37 on 365. She faces Blinkova next where she's a huge favorite after looking super comfortable against Strycova, and will face either (most likely) Mertens - who is not in the best form of late, or Kovinic - who is playing solid, but wasn't really tested vs Bencic or Goerges (both so poor). Mertens let alone Pliskova will almost certainly be too much for her.
  34. 2 points
    4.15 Newbury , Glorious Journey 15/2 won represents decent value I think
  35. 2 points
    The 5-star pick was a winner last week! And so was the 4-star play! In both cases, we had taken a fairly big underdog that eventually won the game outright: the Arizona Cardinals (as 7-point underdogs in San Francisco) and the Washington Redskins (as 6.5-point underdogs vs Philadelphia). If not for Detroit’s epic fourth-quarter collapse, the picks rated 3 stars or higher would have gone a perfect 4-0. Let’s keep rolling! PICK #1 (4 STARS): WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM +6.5 AT ARIZONA CARDINALS What?!?!? Last week my top play went to Arizona, and now in Week #2 my favorite bet goes against them? There is something about this Washington team. They went through many negative news over the past few months. First, it was reported there was a culture of sexual harassment and discrimination within the organization, which started with the owner Daniel Snyder. Also, the team has a lackluster roster with few big names. Heck, the team doesn’t even have a name right now! Even their head coach is facing an uphill battle as he was diagnosed with cancer. Washington trailed 17-0 against the Eagles, which didn’t surprise many people. Then, somehow, Washington stormed back with 27 unanswered points. Rivera was hooked to an IV during halftime, and quarterback Dwayne Haskins took the opportunity to deliver an inspiring speech that motivated the whole team. I don’t believe this win was a fluke. Washington’s motivation and focus will go a long way towards surprising many people this year. Make no mistake about it; this game won’t be a cakewalk for the Cardinals. Four defensive linemen from Washington picked up 5 QB pressures or more last week. That’s impressive! Given how weak Arizona’s offensive line is, there will often be Washington defenders in the backfield disrupting plays. To top it all off, center Mason Cole is questionable to play, while left tackle D.J. Humphries is nursing a lower-body injury. Also, Arizona’s defense is not scaring anyone. They did a fine job last week in San Francisco, but keep in mind the Niners were lacking playmakers, especially at the wide receiver position. Granted, Washington is not loaded on offense either, but they do have a couple of game breakers with Terry McLaurin and rookie Antonio Gibson. Dwayne Haskins is also progressing nicely after a rough start to his NFL career a year ago. I expect a very tight game. Arizona might come away with the win, but it won’t be easy at all. I like this play quite a bit. PICK #2 (3 STARS): TENNESSEE TITANS -8.5 VS JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS I smell a blowout here. Most bookies have a spread of 8.5 or 9, but bwin has 8 right now, which is nice value in my opinion. The Jags shocked the Colts 27-to-20 last week. But did you look at the numbers? Indy picked up 27 first downs versus just 17 for Jacksonville. The Colts outgained their opponent 445 to 241 in terms of total offensive yards. Clearly, the Jags were helped by Philip Rivers’ two interceptions. That’s unlikely to happen against a smart Tennessee team. Coming into the season, remember that Jacksonville was projected to be the league’s worst team. They have a pretty bad roster. Also, Jacksonville’s two starting safeties may miss the game. Jarrod Wilson has already been declared out, while Josh Jones is questionable. The #9 overall pick from this year’s draft, cornerback C.J. Henderson, may not be available either due to a concussion. Ryan Tannehill must be licking his chops. Granted, cornerback Adoree’ Jackson is out for Tennessee. But that’s about it in terms of significant injuries for the Titans. It wasn’t easy for Tennessee in Week #1, as they came away with a 16-14 win in Denver. If not for Stephen Gostkowski missing three field goals and one extra point, the Titans would have won 26-14. Now playing a much weaker Jacksonville team, I’ll predict a 20-point win favoring the Titans. PICK #3 (2 STARS): NEW YORK GIANTS +5.5 AT CHICAGO BEARS Last summer, the Bears were established as 5-point favorites for this matchup in very early NFL lines. Considering the lack of fans, home teams should now be less favored. This has been reflected in most Week #2 meetings, but not here. The Giants should be 3 or 3.5-point underdogs. An inflated line would be reasonable if the Giants had done significantly worse than expected in Week #1, or if the Bears had done an exceptional job in their first match. But that has not been the case. Daniel Jones did a good job against the stout Steelers defense last Monday night. That’s very encouraging for the kid. The good news is he will also get one of his top targets back on the field, Golden Tate. He missed the season opener due to a hamstring injury, but he has a good chance to suit up this Sunday. Saquon Barkley could not get going at all against Pittsburgh. He has a chance to explode this week after seeing the Bears allowing 4.8 yards per carry to the Lions last week. I also like how the Giants defense matches up against the Bears. New York’s defensive line is very effective against the run. That should force Chicago to throw the ball more, and I don’t trust Mitchell Trubisky to light up the scoreboard. For these reasons, I am taking the Giants to cover the 5.5-point spread. PICK #4 (2 STARS): KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -8.5 AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS Do you really want to bet against the Chiefs with three extra days of rest, following their Thursday night matchup with the Texans? I don’t. In injury news, K.C.’s best cornerback, Charvarius Ward, is likely out with a fractured hand. That’s the main reason why this pick is not rated higher. Center Austin Reiter was recently upgraded from questionable to probable with a knee injury, so that’s reassuring. On the Chargers side, they have a couple of offensive linemen whose status is uncertain: center Mike Pouncey and right guard Trai Turner. To make matters worse, their star defensive end Joey Bosa has an injured triceps, but he should be in the lineup. However, linebacker Drue Tranquill is out for several weeks. In Week #1, the Chargers barely beat the Bengals, a game they could have easily lost if not for a questionable offensive pass interference penalty awarded to A.J. Green in the final seconds of the game. Los Angeles did not impress me one bit, including quarterback Tyrod Taylor. The difference between Patrick Mahomes and Tyrod Taylor is huge, and the surrounding cast in Kansas City is also much better. The only advantage the Chargers hold is with their defense, whom I believe is slightly better. However, they’ll have trouble keeping up with the Chiefs offense who should have no problem scoring many points. Meanwhile, the Chargers offense won’t be able to keep up the pace. PICK #5 (1 STAR): LOS ANGELES RAMS PICK’EM AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES Man, the injuries are just piling up for the Eagles! First, they had lost for the entire season two important pieces on the offensive line: Brandon Brooks and Andre Dillard. Now, safety Will Parks, defensive end Vinny Curry and wide receiver Alshon Jeffery are out several weeks. The following players are tagged as questionable for Week #2: DE Brandon Graham, LT Jason Peters (that would be a massive blow!), DT Javon Hargrave and RB Boston Scott. Finally, we’ve got a few more guys listed as probable: DE Derek Barnett, RT Lane Johnson (what??? Another offensive lineman on the injury list?) and RB Miles Sanders. These players are likely to play this weekend, but they won’t be 100%. Meanwhile, the only player worth of note appearing on the Rams’ injury list is tight end Gerald Everett, but he has a strong shot to be available. In other words, there is a GIGANTIC gap between the two teams’ health. I don’t believe the injuries are being properly accounted for in the current line. The Eagles were 4-point favorites during the summer. Given the lack of fans, the point spread should be down to about 2 or 2.5. So, basically, the line was adjusted an additional 2-2.5 points due to a combination of injuries and the performance of both teams last week. That’s not enough, in my humble opinion. The Rams played a very solid game against the Cowboys. Keep in mind that Dallas is among one of the Super Bowl favorites. Jared Goff was very accurate, and he has good weapons around him with Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett. Their running game surprised me too, especially Malcolm Brown. I thought he might end up being the #3 running back behind rookie Cam Akers and 2019 third-round pick Darrell Henderson, but the undrafted runner out of Texas got the most touches and ran very well. Indeed, he rushed 18 times for 79 yards and scored a couple of touchdowns. With all the injuries on Philly’s offensive line, Carson Wentz is guaranteed to have nightmares every single night this week when thinking about what Aaron Donald might do to him this Sunday. Have a nice weekend and thanks for reading my friend! Professor MJ
  36. 2 points
    I'll also be on Leeds this weekend. Thought they were excellent against Liverpool. As neilovan has said, Fulham were pretty poor against Arsenal and I'll also be on Everton against a woeful looking West Brom side.
  37. 2 points
    Returns profit of 55 points
  38. 2 points
    Jediknight

    Naps - Wednesday September 16th

    Beverley 3.35 Zihaam e/w (22/1 b365)
  39. 2 points
    I really wonder what game you were watching. I watched that game from beginning to end and Kerber was shit till about 0-3 in the second when she suddenly raised her game a few notches out of the ordinary. By then, the birds had flown.All through the match Kerber never played with her usual hustling zeal. She hit only what was in front of her and let anything further to the left or right go. It is certainly misleading for you to suggest that Siniakova won that match from any sort of vintage form she may have conjured.
  40. 2 points
    310 Yarm - Majestic Noor 9/1 ew betfair Other than when course was being redone & the abandoned one this will be the 1st John Musker Stakes I've missed for yonks ☹️ & no Sea Deer being paraded either.
  41. 2 points
    Some recommendations from me: Wawrinka- Musetti: I do not recommend prematch bets on this one, because if Wawrinka is healthy, he can 6-0 6-0 this one. If you got the time to follow the match - Wawrinka comes back from an injury, he said that he is felling good, etc. I don't exactly buy it, that he's 100%. The second you see he's struggling, or medical time-out, or he feels off, hit Musetti with the $$. Nadal - Carreno Busta: +6.5 handicap Busta, -bet365 - 1.83 odds: So Nadal's first official match since 03/2020 and they bring out these odds? I tend to disagree here. He will be affected as well by the lack of games in his leg. Would Busta be a threat to him in any ways on clay in normal situations? I don't think so. Is he a threat tomorrow? I do think so. I see a tiebreak easily, and after that the +6.5 is covered easily. Hurkacz - Rublev: Rublev to win - 1.30 odds - partypoker: If both were healthy, I still think Rublev would win 9.99/10 times this matchup. Hurkacz played injured yesterday vs Evans, only thing that saved him is that Evans plays like an ATP Nr 800 player on clay. Today against Bagnis, who actually played way better than I expected, Rublev took him out pretty confidently. Rublev advances. ( I recommend betting at a site which in case of withdrawal still gives you the dollars) Yastremska - Anisimova: Anisimova +1.5 sets - or Anisimova to win 2.1 - bet365: I don't exactly know what's up with Yastremska the last 7-8 matches. She struggles. Whether if its something mental, or she's injured, or she just doesn't care, she is definitely struggling and she's not playing Her tennis. I like Anisimova's chances in this match, she has super big ups and downs in a match, although I found her being pretty solid yesterday versus Vekic. Definitely worth a try looking at the odds.
  42. 2 points
    jcw

    Naps - Tuesday Sept 15th

    2.20 Red, Cruyff Turn e/w 14/1 Bfair
  43. 2 points
    MCLARKE

    Latest Table - September 2020

    Not very often I make a record, not one to brag about. Still, I'd rather have a 1/25 winner than a 250/1 loser.
  44. 2 points
    My next bet tomorrow would be: Bagnis - Rublev , Rublev to win : 1.30 odds (partypoker again) Nishioka - Kecmanovic : Kecmanovic to win: 1.40 odds I don't necessarily think any of the players listed here will win super easily, with 2-0. If you follow any of the matches, I think it's a high chance that you will find yourself having the possibility to bet on either Rublev or Kecmanovic on bigger odds. I would definitely stake this if there's the chance. Rublev is my hidden gem to win the whole ATP Rome. I loved and still love his gamestyle, especially on clay, where he beat Thiem several times as well. Bagnis is a decent player, in a pretty good form, I just believe there is a whole class difference between the two. Rublev trained hard for the last 1-2 months, I do believe he could have won versus Medvedev, it's time for him to prove something, here in Rome. I was pretty doubtful about Kecmanovic. He comes from winning his first ATP tourney, and these are the moments in my experience where players loses their next match. But, the opponent is Nishioka. His height, his gamestyle does not add any pros on clay. His last game versus Pella? He hated every moment of it, the ball seemingly bounced in a way he hates it does. Kecmanovic might lose a set, but he comes out winning in the end. Rublev to win ATP Rome - 51 odds seems to me an option to try. (It will be cash-outable when we arrive to quarters, semis, with a pretty nice profit). I think Nadal will be surprisingly out early, Djokovic is obviously always a threat to anybody, all in all, I'll push my luck here Edit: Rublev won, Kecmanovic tanked the whole match, joke
  45. 2 points
    I cannot argue against this, cuz you are totally right. But What are the chances of Paire getting back on track after a pause, facing an in average form Sinner, and dominates him right away, when he couldnt dominate anyone in the last 10 months? Yes, he could have 'that' day, and win 6-1 6-1, but looking at probabilities it's quite hard to become a reality. Tennis is a mental game as well ( Zverev could tell stories about this), the second the lack of matches show in Paire's game, he gets broken or he doubla faults, he's tilted, almost done. Hell, he even tilted on some random showmatch versus Popyrin, and got swept. Obviously one can argue in favour of Paire, or just skip the match. I personally liked and still like the odds.
  46. 2 points
    vangovin

    Naps - Monday 14th September

    1330 Thirsk Moretti Bet365 7/1 ty
  47. 2 points
    CS 333

    Naps - Monday 14th September

    Thirsk 1.30 Moretti 12-1 bet365
  48. 2 points
    Trotter

    £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome

    nice winner ! 🙂
  49. 2 points
    calva decoy

    Lee's USA Racing

    After a worldwide weekend with bets in UK , Ireland , France , Hong Kong , US & Canada Sunday is fun pick night as I've reached my betting limits for week. GULFSTEAM 529- Baby Ice 11/2 50p ew. 1st 631- Romario 20/1 50p ew 702- Hard West 7/2 £1 win 734- Five Of Hearts 11/2 50p ew 840- Pricey Victory 9/4 £1 win WOODBINE 600- Above All Names 5/1 £1 win 2nd 805- Free Speech 11/1 50p ew 836- Lapochka 2/1 £1 win. 2nd 907- Tricky Magician 7/4 £1 win 2nd 940- Born To Be King 2/1 £1 win 3rd All prices bet365 Depending on what meetings are on may pop back Wednesday , be lucky 🤞 Would have lost if I've has a bet , phew ,
  50. 2 points
    Thanks a lot! I've been following this forum for a while now, I've read so many great analysises, and found so many many value bets, thanks to all the people posting here!
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