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  1. Been a while since I wrote an Australian flat racing preview and I will cover the Everest and Caulfield Cup this week, but first of all I am going to take a look at race 1 at Kyneton which is due off at 3.30am. A maiden at a country track wouldn't usually catch my attention, but I have a share in one of the horses running in the contest called Beneficio. I will get to her chances at the end and will take a look at the main rivals first. Rioyuki is favourite and it is easy to see why. She finished 2nd in the same maiden at Kilmore that Beneficio finished 4th in and she found herself too far back and then couldn't get the clearest of runs in the straight before finishing well for 2nd place. The winner looked very good and the time was quick as well. She had shown promise on her first start back in May and she will win races. The one possible chink is that she might need a bit further, but she does look the one to beat. Gloved made her debut in a Listed race back in March and then was 2nd on the all-weather back in August. I don't think that was an overly strong race though so I am happy enough to pass her over. There are a couple who are having their 2nd runs after being spelled after their first runs who could improve for the break, but they need to so the other main rival for me is Little Schnitty. She has had 7 runs already and has finished 2nd twice over 1200m before being well beaten at Flemington last time. She flew home and just missed in the first of the 2nds and was then beaten by a massive priced outsider in the 2nd of them. That Flemington race was only a BM64 and there were only 6 runners, but the winner won a G3 next time so as you expect it was a strong race. She will surely get her head in front eventually, but I don't think it will be here. NB has now been scratched. So to Beneficio. She has plenty of speed from the gate as she showed last time and also in her two trials prior to that first run. She had to get across from a wide draw a couple of weeks ago so had to use a bit of speed up early and she ended up settling in behind the winner. She kept trying and was only just caught for 3rd right on the line. Kilmore is uphill all the way in the home straight so it was no real surprise that she just faded a little late on. As I mention above I think it is going to prove to be a strong form race because the winner looked impressive and the winning time was nearly 6.5L quicker than standard. The trainer has reported that she has come on for that run and is fitter. What I really like about her is that she is a real trier and she will keep going which she did really well when winning her last trial. With the run under her belt and on a flatter track I hope that she will see out the trip better. I'm still not sure if that will be enough to hold of Rioyuki who is obviously going to be chasing her down late, but at the very least I think she rates a cracking e/w bet as I would be a bit disappointed if she didn't hit the frame. Worth adding as well that the stable is in really good form as he had 3 winners at Cranbourne on Friday night and one on Thursday. I will be backing her win and place with Bet365 and staking more on the place part of the bet. I will also be backing Rioyuki to win the race. Rioyuki @ 6/4 with Betfred Beneficio @ 9/1 win and 1.85/1 place with Bet365
    8 points
  2. 24pts staked total today. Winners were.... Eldar Eldarov 3/1 My Mate Mozzie 15/8 Flight Deck 7/2 Dark Shot 18/1 Total pts returned = 46.35 Profit for the day = 22.35pts New P/L = +51.45pts
    7 points
  3. Young Fitzy 1st & She Is A Contender 2nd. Gutted I didn't do the forecast but a nice 7pt return from the race.
    6 points
  4. Sasnovich vs Azarenka - Over 19.5 Games at 1.80 with Pinnacle Sasnovich (+ 5.5 Games) to beat Azarenka at 1.68 with Pinnacle Sasnovich to beat Azarenka at 4.01 with Pinnacle I said on my last pick that Halep was being overrated. She was not playing good and Sasnovich's last results were suggesting that she would have chances to upset Halep. Well..., I only have seen a short part of that match, but Sasnovich has beat her in 2 sets (7-5, 6-4). She has won all her 3 matches here in straight sets (MC Osorio, Raducanu and Halep). Azarenka's last results are not good. She has not been able to win more than 2 straight matches since she did in Berlin, 4 months ago. In her 1st match here, she benefited from Linette's injury to reach the 2nd round. Now, she has benefited from Kvitova's physical problems to reach the 3rd round (Kvitova needed medical treatment on her thigh in the 1st set). I have seen the whole match and I have to say that it has been really bad. Both players have played really aggressive (as it was expected), but the amount of errors has been excessive. It's also remarkable how bad both players have been with their serve. The first set has been a nightmare. Vika is the best player, but Sasnovich has showed more, much more. These players have never played before.
    6 points
  5. Won. BSP 7.81. 55 / 147, lsp + £ 38.48.
    6 points
  6. 3 of my tips where there is still some value. AFC Telford v Farsley Celtic (National League North) Farsley fully deserved their victory over Curzon last week when I opposed them and if they carry on with that form in this game then I think they will take the 3 points. Telford beat Chorley on the opening day of the season, but they have lost every game since apart from a draw against Hereford. They sacked their manager last week, but lost to Spennymoor and then Boston beat them 4-1 on Tuesday night so little has changed on the back of the sacking. Farsley just look very over priced for this game. Weston Super Mare v Salisbury (Southern Premier South) Weston flattered to deceive again on Tuesday night when they lost 2-1 to Yate. They should be doing much better than they are and it especially seems that their home form isn't quite up to scratch. They host a Salisbury side who will have been disappointed to have drawn against Hartley Witney last week, but they continue to be in strong form and have just lost twice all season. I think they can get the better of their hosts here. Southend v Chertsey So Phil Brown has finally gone at Southend, but this isn't exactly a game they will be wanting right now as they are on a hiding to nothing really. They have yet to lose in the league this season in 5 games and are still in the FA Trophy. Again its a 3 level gap, but Southend are there for the taking at the moment. Farsley Celtic 1pt @ 29/10 with William Hill (take up to 7/4) Salisbury 1pt @ 15/8 with Skybet (take up to 11/8) Chertsey 1pt @ 6/1 with Betfred (take up to 4/1)
    5 points
  7. come here for free tips some of the top naps and mclarke harry etc all provide great roi. 🤑
    5 points
  8. I agree with your pick but also question why the need for such a big stake at these odds? You have done well to get back into profit albeit only for a few hours would be a shame to throw it all away again. Just don’t see why you feel the need to throw £750 on it. Good luck anyway, if I was to bet I would also go for a Poland win
    5 points
  9. Madness! In Rem wins 50/1 to return 31pts.
    4 points
  10. Had 4pts on Trueshan before the off but didn't have time to post so not going on P/L. However..... Get in Villanova Queen who wins 20/1 to return 26pts.
    4 points
  11. Arina Rodionova (+5) to beat Oksana Selekhmeteva at 1.86 with Pinnacle I don't really see a reason to have the handicap so big here. Rodionova isn't a great player by any stretch, but she can typically hold her own against these young players. Selekhmeteva just doesn't have the results yet to be such a big favorite here in my opinion.
    4 points
  12. P/L = +45.45pts 1338 Fakenham Italian Spirit & 1530 Haydock Magisterial 2/1 2.5pt win double = Won to return 7.5pts 1345 Haydock Colombidea 14/1 2pt win = Lost 2pts 1355 Uttoxeter Anyharminasking 10/3 1.5pt win = Lost 1.5pts 1430 Uttoxeter Kiltealy Briggs 9/2 2pt win = Lost 2pts 1615 Uttoxeter The Garrison 18/1 1/2pt win 1633 Fakenham Welland 4/1 2pt win 1640 Haydock Round Acre 9/1 1pt win 1650 Uttoxeter Dooyork 9/1 1.5pt win 1945 Dundalk Camdeboo 10/1 1pt win 14pts staked.
    4 points
  13. A terrific days racing is in store at Ascot for Champions Day with the ground likely to ride on the soft side on the straight track and softer on the round course. Here’s my thoughts on the 6 races. Ascot 1.25 The British Champions Long Distance Cup is run over two miles and has attracted a quality field of twelve. Last years very easy winner Trueshan is back to defend his title and following a impressive win over Stradivarius in the Prix Du Cadran over 2 miles 4 furlongs will surely be hard to beat. The ground should be slow enough for Alan King’s stayer and he can confirm Paris form with the Gosden’s super stayer Stradivarius. Princess Zoe was behind that pair in Paris so is easily dismissed here. Hamish defied a long layoff when beating Hukum (winner since) on the all weather at Kempton but has to prove his stamina stepping up in trip. If he stays he could be a contender but without being boring this can go to Trueshan who’s easy win in this last year will live long in the memory. TRUESHAN 2 points win @ 7/4 William Hill Ascot 2.00 A maximum field of 20 go to post for the 6F Group one sprint and has an open look about it. Godolphin’s Creative Force has kept his form well throughout the season and should be thereabouts. Similar comments can be applied to Archie Watson’s Dragon Symbol. Minzaal is lightly raced and a possible also following a nice comeback Foy the Shadwell team of Owen Burrows. The one I like here is David Evan’s Rohaan who ran an astonishing race at The Curragh last time over 5F in the Flying Five. Watching the race back again you’ll see he was left at least ten lengths at the start but gradually made up the deficit to get within 3/4L of Dragon Symbol at the death. He’s two from two at the Berkshire track and Ryan Moore has been booked. He’ll do for me each way with enhanced place terms. ROHAAN 1 1/2 points each way @ 5/1 1/5th 12345 William Hill Ascot 2.35 The third race on the card is the Group 1 Fillies And Mares Stakes and is the weakest Group race of the day. Aidan O’Brien’s super three year old filly Snowfall has been re-routed here following the defection of stablemate Love and has a banker look about her. On official ratings she is 10lb and upwards better than these and has beaten many of them comprehensively earlier in the season. As long as she’s got over her race in the Arc a fortnight ago surely she wins well here. She wasn’t disgraced that day when finishing 6th and with Ryan Moore on top I really can’t oppose her here. She’s the day’s best bet. Andrew Balding runs a couple and his Invite made a winning stable debut for him at Chester and is maybe the one to chase Snowfall home all be it at a comfortable distance. SNOWFALL 4 points win 4/5 Bet365 Ascot 3.10 The Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes is worth a guaranteed £1.1 million and this one mile contest run on the straight track has ten quality animals entered this year. Palace Pier’s only defeat in his 10 race career came in this race last year but he had excuses as the ground was very soft and he lost a shoe. He’s bounced back from that blip to win all four of his contests this season and is without doubt the one they all have to beat for Messr’s Gosden’s and Dettori. It’s an intriguing contest because we have the unbeaten William Haggas trained Baaeed who brings into the race a perfect 5 from 5 starts. There’s only 4lb between the big two here and it’s without doubt a race to savour. There are some big prices about some smart horses with the chunk of the market taken up by the front pair including last years winner The Revenant who would of preferred it even softer and Alcohol Free who may not have stayed 10F last time and can be competitive. Charlie Appleby runs his smart three year old Master Of The Seas but the Breeders Cup Turf is his primary end of season target (I most certainly wouldn’t put anyone off taking the 12/1 about him before this contest for the Del Mar race) and won’t disgrace himself. It’s a tough call but Palace Pier has been there and done it and I expect him to confirm his position as champion miler of the world today. PALACE PIER 2 points win @ 7/4 William Hill Ascot 3.50 £1.2 million is there to be won in this 10F Group 1 Champion Stakes run over 10F and has attracted a quality field of 10. John and Thady Gosden’s Mishriff comes here following one of the most impressive wins of the season when scooting clear of his rivals in the Juddmonte International Stakes at York in August although it could be argued that beating Alenquer and Love who have both been beaten since with likely non stayer Alcohol Free further down the field wasn’t as impressive as first thought. He has met his main rival here previously over 2F further than today when chasing home Charlie Appleby’s Derby winner Adayar in the King George at Ascot. Mishriff will be 7lb better off today for 1 3/4L and should appreciate the shorter trip. Adayar missed work prior to his follow up run from the King George in the Arc De Triomphe a fortnight ago when racing a bit too keenly but not been disgraced in finishing 4th beaten some 3 3/4L. He’s dropping back in trip here and with his exuberant way of racing the trip may actually suit him and it would not be a surprise to see William Buick make plenty of use of him rather than restraining him as in previous starts. Last years winner Addeybb is back to defend his title and will not be disgraced though ideally could of done with softer conditions whilst Arc 5th Sealiway was only just behind Adayar that day so can’t be totally ruled out. The best outsider may be Haggas’s Al Aasy who may well be suited by a strong pace and is probably better than he’s shown in his last couple of runs. A cracking contest with slight preference for Mishriff to add to his career earnings of over £11 million here with regular rider David Egan in the saddle. MISHRIFF 2 points win @ 7/4William Hill Ascot 4.30 The card finishes with a cracking 1 mile handicap, The Balmoral Handicap with a maximum field of 20 going to post with John & Thady Gosden appearing to hold the key to the race with the front two in the market of Sunray Major to be ridden by Frankie Dettori and King Leonidas (James Doyle). The former impressed when winning at the track over a furlong shorter a fortnight ago and despite a 6lb penalty (which he needed to get a run here) is one pound well in. He must go close but at current prices of under 3/1 looks scant value now. Stable companion King Leonidas has by all accounts been working very well since his eye catching third at Newbury last month and each way is maybe the value call here. Thought good enough to contest the Jersey Stakes at last year’s Royal Ascot (where he went off 9/4 fav.) he ran well following an absence of 457 days to finish third in a decent class 2 Newbury handicap and the reports are that he’s come forward for that run. Nugget comes here in good form but has avoided easy ground throughout his career and may just find the good to soft ground against him whilst Aldaary impressed last time and should be on the premises. A tough handicap with preference for the Gosden ‘2nd string’ in a race where he could too a good day but having the 1-2 here. KING LEONIDAS 2 points each way @ 11/2 1/5th 1234567 Betfred
    4 points
  14. Flat selection Haydock 2.55 MYTHICAL DANCER 9/4
    4 points
  15. Hiya mate love your tips on here, i look for you comments everyday! Just wondering what we have on today ?? Keep up the good work mate you're really good. Cheers mate , Jack
    4 points
  16. I'm adding as I place them so you will need to keep checking in here.
    4 points
  17. Flat selection. Chelmsford 6.30 RAMADHAAN 5/4
    4 points
  18. Selection added and will continue to add any further bets I place if I do so by adding them to the original post and quoting an update.
    4 points
  19. I will try my best to post the selections as close to when I place them but that isn't always possible as it's usually one of the busiest parts of the day for me. I will aim to get them up on here as close to when I place them as possible but the prices I put up will be what I got otherwise my bank won't reflect my P/L. Quite often with my horses, they have drifted out so this hasn't been a problem. It's just so far tomorrow, all four have been backed to some degree. I try to be as transparent as possible and you can see the prices I got in the pictures above. I don't really know what else I can say to be honest. Family and Work come first and then I get my selections up on here afterwards. I'll say it again, I'll try and get them up on here ASAP, but this isn't always possible.
    4 points
  20. I've had a couple of months off from the thread but feel like 'getting back on the horse' ....... in the interim I've retired from work and got more time to kill. Good thing about racing is that you can spend as much time on it as there is time to kill ! Kemp 7.00 - Lafan 10/1 Kemp 7.30 - Andronicus Beau 10/1 prices bet365 £10 EW double
    4 points
  21. I suspect the sentiments would have been more accurately conveyed had he said "paid tipsters" which is clearly a divisive subject among punters. Some people view them as being akin to prostitutes and are very much in the "I'd never pay for it" camp. Some people take a more pragmatic view, e.g. whilst they are car enthusiasts who enjoy working on their own vehicle they accept that there are others without the time, skill and inclination who want the services of a good, reliable, garage. Anyone who has been betting for a long time will have memories of when the paid tipster scene was mainly populated by sharks, conmen and charlatans. These days, I suspect it's more nuanced that that, with plenty of profitable paid services out there as well. The main issue for me is that I don't have the time to be following anyone's bets after sorting out, recording and analysing my own. I don't necessarily want to stake that much on someone else's selections to justify paying a fee for them and it's too much hard work chasing the prices and trying to get a worthwhile stake on (I appreciate not an issue where based on BFSP). I can service my own (metaphorical) car well enough, and enjoy doing so, that I don't need to try and find a good mechanic, at the risk of getting ripped off along the way. Most people who post on here, whether winning or losing, will be of that mindset, wary of paid tipping services and irked by the perception of anyone using the forum to promote one without making any real contribution (not aimed at you given the posting to date, but it happens). My take is it's a shame you've decided to stop posting now. I assume you were tiring of it a bit anyway but it seems to be in response to polite and reasonable requests for an up to date P/L figure (which should be provided as a matter of course in this part of the forum). You were regularly posting comments when there was a "nice winner" or two so it's only natural for people to wonder what the overall picture was. No shame in being in the red, all profitable systems hit losing streaks and any edge can dissipate over time. Obviously, had this been a paid service, you can appreciate that anyone who joined on the cusp of the downturn would have been feeling like @MCLARKE describes in his last post. Good luck with the paid service, though on the basis of the returns and timeframe you mention it feels a long way short of being a proven long-term source of profits to me, especially in the context of being asked to pay for the information. Hopefully it continues to be profitable but no doubt there will be some bumps in the road along the way.
    4 points
  22. It is very difficult (but not impossible) to make money from betting, even more so you when you have to pay a tipster. You were very bullish about your win tips but they have not stood the test of time, I suspect your place tips may well follow the same path. It is also difficult to make money in the place market because of the low level of liquidity, if several people put on large bets on the same horse the price would dop considerably and any edge will quickly disappear. I would advise anybody to think very carfeully before paying for these tips.
    4 points
  23. Nice , easy to read @Hotspur88
    4 points
  24. Annoying she’s just got chinned on the line but the race went exactly as I thought it so it was very profitable.
    4 points
  25. Lloyd Harris to win a set at 1.8 with bet365 Don't know why Ruud is considered such a heavy favorite against Harris tonight. Both players are at their best, Harris is the better server, Ruud is probably the better retriever. Kind of reminds me of David Ferrer in a way. At these odds, I'm going with the young South African to win at least a set. Good luck.
    4 points
  26. MCLARKE

    Win Backing System

    I was referring to the place bets which you are charging for, I don't think you have posted them on here. In the past I have used tipsters which have shown profits for many years but then invariably had long losing runs. I have learned from bitter experience not to trust tipsters.
    4 points
  27. We all spend time making our selections and freely share them on the forum without expecting anybody to pay us to do this. There are many members on here who have better returns than you so I would advise people to follow these for free rather than pay for your dubious tips.
    4 points
  28. Aliaksandra Sasnovich (+5) to beat Victoria Azarenka at 1.81 with Pinnacle Fully agree with @darko08.
    4 points
  29. P/L = +23.6pts 1320 Curragh Limiti Di Greccio 3/1 2.5pt win 1455 Goodwood Atalanta's Boy 4/1 2pt win 1505 Curragh Monas Melody 12/1 1pt e/w (2pts total) *paying 6 places 1555 Limerick Ontheropes 15/2 2pt win 1640 Goodwood Raymond Tusk 10/1 1pt e/w (2pts total) *paying 3 places 1715 Goodwood Shouldering 12/1 1pt e/w (2pts total) *paying 5 places 12.5pts staked 🍀
    4 points
  30. Sweet! event_date time course selection betfair position 2021-10-10 12:50 Curragh Tartan Skirt 1.81 1 2021-10-10 13:00 Newton Abbot Skatman 1.95 1 2021-10-10 17:05 Limerick Agritime 1.94 1 Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 88.36 68.36 Month bets outlay return profit 8 31 620 703.98 83.98 9 29 580 573.37 -6.63 10 8 160 348.20 188.20
    4 points
  31. Obviously we have British Champions Day to look forward to over here on Saturday, but there is more prize money up for grabs in The Everest alone in Australia on the same day. The Everest is the richest race run on turf in the world and is Race 7 (6.15am) at Randwick. Meanwhile at Caulfield we have the Caulfield Cup which is R8 (7.15am). The Everest will be on Sky Sports Racing and if you want to watch Caulfield then you can go to Racing.com, sign up for a free account and you will be able to watch their coverage. The Everest Nature Strip - His win in the T J Smith last April over course and distance marked him down as the best sprinter in the world, but then his following prep a year ago was pretty poor. He didn't win in 4 starts and was just 7th in this contest. He bounced back though this autumn when winning the Black Caviar Lightning in February at Flemington and he landed the T J Smith again beating Masked Crusader by 2L. This prep he impressively landed the G3 Concorde Stakes on his return before finishing 2nd to Eduardo in the Shorts 4 weeks ago. Interestingly he was also beaten by Eduardo in between his Lightning win and his T J Smith win earlier in the year and easily reversed the form as that one was just 3rd in the T J. He was a close 4th in this contest in 2019 so there is a concern that he has already come up short in 2 attempts, but he is certainly coming into this renewal in better form than he was last year and I'd argue he is a better horse now than he was in 2019. He's proven himself if it gets very wet and he's got a big chance and has been very well backed in the last couple of days. Classique Legend - He was very good when bolting up in this race last year when favourite and if he turns up in that form then he will be hard to bear. The problem for me was he then went to Hong Kong and was a big disappointment at Sha Tin. He was going to be trained their full time, but it was decided to bring him back to Australia and aim him at this instead. That run is his only start since last year's Everest and as much as he looked good in his trials I can't help but think a lack of a prep run will stop him from winning this. I think he would need to be as good as he was last year to win and with no guarantee that he will be I will be happy to look elsewhere. Eduardo - Was a well beaten 11th in this race last year, but I think he has improved since then as so far in 2021 he has won 4 of his 5 starts. The one defeat came in the T J Smith when 3rd to Nature Strip as mentioned above. I really liked the way he fought back to beat Nature Strip in the Shorts last time. Obviously he beat him in March before losing to him in the T J, but maybe his win in the Galaxy had just left it's mark so he wasn't quite at his best in the T J. This time around he's just had that one start and I certainly think he will be much closer than last year. Gytrash - He was a good 3rd in this last year and he went on to win the Yes Yes Yes Stakes on a Heavy 9 which is his only start on a heavy track. He has a good record on all surfaces and on a soft track he has never been out of the first 3 in 9 starts. He was a bit disappointing in a couple of G1's in May, but I thought he ran a huge race in the Shorts behind Nature Strip and Eduardo. He tried to go for a run between the first two late on, but the gap wasn't there and he couldn't be ridden out in the final 75m. I think he might well have won if he had got a clear run as he was just getting going. His campaign has been built around this contest and given there ought to be plenty of pace in the race I think it could set things up nicely for him. At the very least I think he can equal last year's 3rd place and he could easily go two places better if building on his first time out effort. Trekking - He hasn't won since The Goodwood when he beat Gytrash by a short head last May. He was 3rd in this in 2019 and 4th last year and he looks to be regressing since so I think it will be hard to equal let alone beat those two positions. Masked Crusader - Has got some very good form including when winning a G2 over course and distance a couple of weeks ago, but he has tending to find himself a long way back in his races and as much as there will be a fast pace, I am not sure he is good enough to mow them all down. He was a well beaten 5th in the Shorts as well. Wild Ruler - Was 2nd to Nature Strip last month on the first run of the prep and then won the G1 Moir Stakes at Moonee Valley last time just holding on from The Inferno. He is 4/5 at the track and 2/2 over course and distance, but he looks like he needs a good track and I'm not sure he will be good enough to win anyway. The Inferno - Only got beaten once in 9 starts in Singapore and won a G2 at Moonee Valley on his debut in Australia. I thought he was going to go past Wild Ruler in the Moir, but his run just flattened out slightly late on. He did have to come wide that day though and the step up to 1200m should suit. Can finish in the top half, but not sure he will be good enough to hit the frame. Embracer - The outsider and will be surprising if he plays a part in the finish. Lost And Running - Has risen through the grades, but he was last in the Shorts and 4th to Masked Crusader last time which suggests to me he isn't up to this level yet. Libertini - Has been kept fresh for this and did beat Classique Legend 1st up last October. That one did get a wide passage that day though and she then only finished 8th in this last year. Was 3rd to Masked Crusader and 8th in the T J Smith and it's hard to see her doing a great deal. Home Affairs - The only 3yo in the race and he did win a Listed Race well last month, but he went from the front that day and he surely wont be able to lead the likes of Eduardo and Nature Strip here. Gets the weight concession, but I don't think he will be good enough. Analysis - I really do think the winner will come from one of the top 4 in the race card as all things being equal I do think they have a little class edge on the rest of the field. None of them will surprise, but I am going to side with Gytrash e/w. A good 3rd in this last year and his 2021 has been all about setting him up for this race. I thought he was unlucky not to win the Shorts on his return and he has a good chance of reversing the form with the two who finished in front of him. At the very least I think he will finish in the 3 again and the price allows us to back him e/w. I think Nature Strip and Eduardo will follow him home in that order with Classique Legend finding the race a little tough 1st up. Gytrash @ 7.5 to win and 2.35 to place with Bet365 Caulfield Cup Whereas the Everest is having just it's 5th running, this will be the 145th running of the Caulfield Cup. Usually we have a few European runners in the race, but we have none this time around although there are some ex European horses in the contest. I have chosen 7 to have a closer look at in race card order. Incentivise - Started his career just over a year ago finishing 9th at Ipswich and then had a break until March when he finished 6th and then a well beaten 8th at Toowoomba. If at that stage you would have said he would be a hot favourite for the Caulfield Cup you would have been taken away by the men in white coats! Since then he has won 8 on the bounce as he has worked his way through the grades both in Queensland and Melbourne the last twice where he won the Makybe Diva and the Turnbull, both G1's at Flemington. On form I think he certainly deserves to be as short as he is because he looks a top class horse, the big problem though is the draw. He has the widest stall of all which isn't great, but we have seen horses drawn wide win in recent years so if he gets a clear run then he will be very hard to beat. Explosive Jack - A 3 times Derby winner having won the Tasmanian, ATC and SA versions. He clearly wants this sort of trip based on those wins as well as his runs in the Makybe Diva and the Turnbull, where he was finishing his race off to good effect. He was beaten about 4L by Incentivise in the Turnbull and carried 0.5kgs more compared to carrying 1.5kgs less here. That will certainly help, but I can't help thinking he might need a longer straight to get up a head of steam especially as he's drawn on the rail. He could well stay on to hit the frame though. The Chosen One - Was a cracking 3rd in this last year and then backed that up with a 4th in the Melbourne Cup. His Autumn campaign was not so good, but he has returned in decent form this prep. Last Saturday he was 2nd to Delphi in the Herbert Power which should set him up nicely for this, although I thought the winner won very comfortably that day. His soft/heavy form doesn't look great, but he did manage a 2nd in the Sydney Cup on a Heavy 8 last year. Delphi - He is a horse who you might well recognise as he landed the Irish St Leger Trial Stakes at the Curragh last August when trained by Aidan O'Brien. He then wasn't seen for 302 days before disappointing at Eagle Farm in a Listed Race. He was given another little break and has got better with each start all at Caulfield. He was 4th back in August over 1m and then just missed out to Nonconformist in a G3 over 1m2f. Then up to 1m4f last week he won hard held in the Herbert Power. Damien Oliver was very keen to ride him again in this and 52.5kgs is a struggle for him to get down to. He has won on the back of a quick run before so that shouldn't be an issue, especially as it looks like he has been trained to peak for this contest. The concern is his draw in 19, but otherwise he looks set to go close. She's Ideal - She is the one of the bigger prices who I think can go well. I liked her win in the G3 Kingston Town over 2000m at Randwick last month and that looked like it would set her up nicely for this. She does come on the back of a seemingly poor run in the G1 Metropolitan 2 weeks ago though, but I think there are reasons behind that. She was drawn very wide that day and went to the back of the field. She had to deliver her charge widest of all down the straight and she stayed on nicely enough. I do want to see a wet track for her which she looks like she will get and with a much better draw in 5 I think she could hit the frame at big odds. Young Werther - He has only won once, but has run some huge races in defeat. He was 2nd to Explosive Jack in the ATC Derby and last time was a 1/2L 2nd to Incentivise in the Turnbull. On that run he is clearly a big player here and he does have a much better draw although he does meet him 0.5kgs worse off. My gut feeling is though that Incentivise will have too much for him again, but he can go well. Nonconformist - Another one of the leading fancies who has drawn poorly in 16, but you can't knock his form so far this prep. He beat Delphi in the Naturalism and then was beaten a nose last week in the G1 Caulfield Stakes where he is one place in front of Cox Plate favourite Zaaki. That was a slowly run race though and the concern for me would be the trip. He's had just one go at it and finished 2nd in the Mornington Cup back in March. A decent enough effort, but this is a better race. On the upside he does look a better horse so he might stay better now. Analysis - Those 7 for me are the leading chances and Incentivise could well just prove too good for them despite his awful draw. The question is the price though and is it any value? For me he is the right price so I will look elsewhere and put up a couple e/w. First one has to be Delphi who looked really good last week and looked to have plenty more in the tank. If he builds on that then I think he can at least hit the frame. I will also cover She's Ideel as she looks overpriced to me especially if the forecast rain hits. Delphi e/w @ 15/2 with William Hill (5 places) She's Ideel e/w @ 22/1 with William Hill (5 places)
    3 points
  32. I will keep posting. I just won't post more bets, that's all.
    3 points
  33. What a day! Profit of 47.5pts New P/L = +88.2pts Tonight's US coming next post 👍🏼
    3 points
  34. Barney Curley: The Man Who Beat The Bookies
    3 points
  35. P/L = +40.70pts 1300 Market Rasen Moonamacaroona 5/4 2.5pt win Lost 2.5pts 1330 Leopardstown Villanova Queen 20/1 1pt e/w (2pts total) Won 26pts 1400 Ascot Kinross 11/1 1.5pts e/w (3pts total) Lost 3pts 1525 Ffos Las In Rem 50/1 1/2pt e/w (1pt total) Won 31pts 1540 Catterick Count D'orsay 3/1 2pt win Lost 2pts 1550 Ascot Sealiway 14/1 1pt win Won 15pts 1555 Market Rasen Zamani 12/1 1pt win Lost 1pt 1640 Stratford Movethechains 2/1 2pt win 1700 Wolverhampton Makambe 14/1 1pt win 1715 Stratford Sammeo 7/2 2pt win 17.5pts staked.
    3 points
  36. Watford vs Liverpool The Premier League weekend action kicks off on Saturday at 12:30pm BST when lower mid-table Watford host title contending Liverpool at Vicarage Road. On paper, the result of this one is already decided but we know how these games can go. Will we see the away team stroll to a victory or will the home side manage to upset the odds and pull off a shock win on home turf? Watford enter this game with it being new manager Claudio Ranieri's first in charge of the club after the sacking of Xisco. The Hornets are down in 15th place and 4 points above the drop zone. Xisco's departure did seem a little harsh given the newly promoted side haven't had a bad start to the season but this is the Watford board for you. Ranieri will have to cope without the duo of Christian Kabasele and Francisco Sierallta who are both injured. Watford are on a run of 17 league games in the top flight without keeping a clean sheet so Ranieri will be keen to tighten that back-line up. There is also optimism in the fact that Ranieri has won 4 of his last 5 home league matches against Liverpool. Liverpool are in 2nd place in the league and just 1 point behind league leaders Chelsea. Jurgen Klopp's men remain the only team in the top flight that are still undefeated. The Reds boast the longest unbeaten run at 17 league games across the top four divisions in English football. There is a chance for the club to make history here by becoming the first English team in the top flight to score 3 or more goals in 7 straight away games. Sadio Mane could also create history by becoming just the third African player behind Didier Drogba and Mohamed Salah to score 100 goals or more in the Premier League. He could also become just the third player in Premier League history to score that many goals without any coming from the penalty spot after Emile Heskey and Les Ferdinand. I'm not sure we can see anything other than a Liverpool win here despite Watford winning the last meeting back in February 2020 that ended Liverpool club record of 44 league games unbeaten and Ranieri boasting such a good home league record against Liverpool. The away team come into this in resilient form and I fully expect them to get the job done. I'm not convinced Ranieri is the right appointment for Watford but we'll see. Liverpool HT/FT @ 2.00 with Bet365 Liverpool -1 @ 2.00 with SpreadEx
    3 points
  37. No probs Tim I just bak all unseated and pulled up in all British and irish racing daily just look down the racecards I do e/w 11/2 and over and each way extra for 250/1 to 33/1 normally 5 or 6 places or 2 or 3 places in races under 7 runners I will still post nap and £20 challenge not that ther worth doing at moment but this thread just look down race card look for U or P last race all the best lee💰
    3 points
  38. Welcome to Punters Lounge' I hope you stay with us for a long time and will be successful
    3 points
  39. 3 points
  40. People on this forum seem to get very touchy about prices obtained about selections. I would suggest that you carry on as you are used to doing as it fits in with your family and work. Tough luck if PL members can't get the price you have obtained. At least they will realise that the value may have gone in the selected runner. Besides, anyone can put in a bet on the betting exchanges requesting odds just above the odds that you obtained (to allow for commission). It may get matched or it may not. No big deal if it doesn't, one just concludes that this was not a value bet at shorter odds even if it wins. I really can't see what all the fuss is about
    3 points
  41. With all due respect, I am a full time teacher with two children. I place my bets and then I put the selections up on here when I get a chance. I will now post my bet slips to show the prices I got so that you can see it isn't fabricated....
    3 points
  42. P/L = +29.1pts 1315 Punchestown My Mate Mozzie 15/8 2pt win 1413 Wetherby Hardy Du Seuil 9/1 1pt win 1558 Wetherby Flight Deck 7/2 2pt win 1615 Bath Abstinence 9/2 2pts e/w (4pts total) *paying 4 places 1633 Wetherby Some Reign 4/1 2pt win 1655 Nottingham Dark Shot 18/1 1pt e/w (2pts total) *paying 5 places 13pts staked.
    3 points
  43. 3 points
  44. Jessica Pegula to beat Victoria Azarenka at 1.81 with Pinnacle It was a push on the Sasnovich handicap, but I'm happy to oppose Azarenka again. Pegula has looked much better than her so far in the tournament and even this year. And she has a serve, unlike Sasnovich.
    3 points
  45. These are all William Buick's rides. £1 level stakes.
    3 points
  46. Whitby Town v Scarborough Athletic Scarborough are priced up at 12/5 for this match, probably based on an inconsistent run of results, but there is very little between the teams in terms of ability. Apart from a 6-0 mauling at FC United, Scarborough have been excellent away from home this season - P5 W4 L1 F6 A1. It is their home form that has let them down. Whitby on the other hand are in a bit of a slump. They have lost their last 2 home games and the goals have dried up. Jacob Hazel has stopped scoring for Whitby and at the same time Nathan Cartman has started notching for Scarborough. Boro also have the added boost of the return of their talismanic captain, Michael Coulson. This has the makings of a tight game but Boro will have plenty of support for this local derby and look very good value at 12/5
    3 points
  47. For those that might be interested Beneficio pulled up well after the race and all being well she will head to Ballarat for a maiden over 1000m, which I think will be her trip given the pace she has, on November 1st.
    3 points
  48. Shapovalov vs Karatsev Anyone know why Shapovalov is favourite here? He didn’t look good in San Diego against Fritz and especially Norrie, and had a walkover against Pospisil. Karatsev’s been hitting the ball well recently and I feel he should be slight favourite against an out of sort Shapo. Karatsev @ 2.15
    3 points
  49. Well done from Zidansek! Petra Kvitova to beat Viktoria Azarenka at 2.07 with Pinnacle These two haven't met since 2019 and it should be an interesting clash. I'm not sure why Kvitova should be the underdog, though. Azarenka was poor against Baptiste, while Kvitova was hitting it like a beast against Rus. If she brings the same level of play, she will crush Azarenka. I'd have Kvitova as a 1.85 sort of favorite here in all honesty.
    3 points
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