Leaderboard

One of the most frustrating bets I have put up this year was Royal Chant at Worcester 3 weeks ago. I thought he had potential to be well handicapped based on his pointing and hunter chase form and that a wind op could be just what he needed as he had finished weakly in his last two hunter chase at Southwell and Cartmel. He went off 16/1 and was cruising into contention entering the home straight when he was hampered at 4 out and came down. Not only was it frustrating for that bet, but we also didn't find out if the wind op had worked or not. He could just as easily found nothing for pressure a

My Speed Figures- a few considerations. The speed figures I submit on these chats have a few Proviso's The nature of 2yo figures i produce means that they are incomplete until the end of the season or at least 3 runs and are therefore a bit fluid, for example:- you may see a Plus (+) next to them this means it has only raced once and will inevitably improve its figure on its next start. many races have small sample sizes, eg most horse at this time of year may only have had 1, 2, or 3 runs and many are first time out i only publish figures for listed races and upwards.

Standard wise its not the strongest of Saturday’s but we have 8 races on ITV from Newbury, summer jumpers at Market Rasen and the Irish Oaks from The Curragh. The weather’s set fine so we’ll be looking at drying fast ground for all meetings. So here we go with my run through for Saturday:- Newbury 150 The 10F Steventon Stakes is a listed race contested this season by 10 runners. It has an open feel about the race with only 8lb on official ratings covering the entire field although having been with Saeed Bin Suroor’s Real World at Royal Ascot when he annihilated the field on

Well thats quite contentious for me to be honest its been my experience that jockeys and trainers are over rated, jockeys can never get a horse to run faster and neither can trainers, all horses have optimal limits which basically means jockeys can only get a horse beaten (how many times have you seen even "top" jockeys cock up?) i concede some trainers appear to be better than others but at the top level they can only train what they have, now there are some very good trainers that are very good handicappers so are expert at choosing "the right race" but then again they also know the races to

4.50 Cartmel When the hunter chase season ended last month I mentioned that Blackjacktennesse was the perfect example of a horse that had been wrongly handicapped by the handicapper as he can't handicap hunter chases. Given he was rated 68 going into the Chepstow hunter chase in April how on earth he decided to stick a horse who had never won before up to 68 I don't know. The form of the race also hasn't worked out and he just wasn't worthy of that mark. Amazingly the handicapper has actually admitted that he did put him into high because after just two runs he has dropped to 83. He ran a

Hi all, used to frequent these forums a while back and had a few succesful threads such as ratings and a maiden race thread. Have a bit more time to get back to doing this now so thought I'd start it up again for this year. To keep things simple all bets will be to a 1pts win with BOG. Hopefully it can be as succesful as it was previously. Cheers

Only looked at one race so far today and unfortunately most of the Class 1 -4 are in the earlier part of the day so I may miss a lot whilst out at lunch Anyway looked at the class 1 event 2.10 Sandown. Inspiral looks to be the top form horse trained by the mighty Gosden team. You could get 2/1 about this one last night and will be lucky to get 7/4 today. It even seems to have an advantage over Wild Beauty in as much as Wild Beauty has to prove it as good over a firm surface. I think that @Zilzaliancould well be OK with Qipao as Mark Johnston's runners always have to be respected.

Small recap to date just when I have a minute Thread was started on 8th Sept 2020. Profit since the start of the thread up to yesterday is €9,221 to a fixed €100 stake, profits are net of 2% commission, all prices recorded at Betfair SP. 897 selections. ROI of 10.28%. Starting bank of €10,000. 1% or €100 on each selection to win. Lowest bank balance was €8,986. Current bank €19,221. When I get to one full year posting here I'll reassess, I may look to move to an email system with a cap on subscribers but this will be flagged well in advance if its going to happen and it wil

1:00 wolv - Valentinka 9/2 - 4th 1:35 wolv - Camerily Joe - 6/1 - 1st 🏆 3.20 wolv - Captain Ryan - 9/1 8th 😢 3:55 wolv - Trusty Rusty - 9/2 - 1st 🏆 2:30 Ffos - Eagle's First - 140/1 - Long shot of the day. - 5th 2:30 Ffos - Moqadama - 4/1 3rd paid out on EW extra on bet365 2:30 Ffos - Chifa - 8/1 - 4th - paid out on EW extra on bet365 3:05 Ffos - One Night in Milan - 14/1 - last - what a disaster! 🤣🤣 4:15 Ffos - Beowulf - 3/1 1st 🏆 6:05 Chelms - Irish Times - 15/4 - 1st 🏆 7:35 Chelms - Coupe de Champagne - 14/1 7th 😢 8:10

Flat selection Newmarket 1.40 VALUE THEORY 11/4

Decided to primarily follow overnight market movers today; got too bogged down in ratings yesterday 7.05 Chelm Best class race of the day but can see why most of my fellow forum members have passed it by as it looks to be a very open race. I have put £5.50 to win on Aljady at 4.8 = £20.48 if it wins. It is 5lbs better off with Maysonic for a nose beating in May. It has been running at the wrong distance since. C&D form in a similar class 2 event can't be ignored imo. Also Maysonic price has drifted from a strong overnight position 2.45 Wolv Badlands £4 win at 6.00 = !9.60 if

Three selections. One from the flats and two jumps . 3.20 Ayr Top two rated are... Vintager 9 Maries Diamond 7.75 Vintager is the bet, 10 points 3/1 4.10 Cartmel Top two rated are..... Tontos Spirit 9.5 Ballyvic Boru 9 Tonto is the bet, 10 points 9/4 4.45 Cartmel Top two rated are ..... Dressedforsuccess 8.3 Licklighter/ William Of Orange 8.2 Dressedforsuccess is the bet, and is probably well handicapped, 10 points 15/8

My whack for today, patent mainly made up of free bet.

D.O'Meara's charges are running well atm 2.15 Redcar - TAMASKA 7/1 ew Bet365 1st 15/2 3.25 Redcar - ESTAD 11/2 ew Bet365 ( 4 ) 👎

So Babytaggle returns in the 4.50 at Stratford and if you did happen to back him without the front two in the market a week ago then you collected as he finished 2nd to the favourite albeit a long way behind him. Today's race is an interesting one as there are horses in there where it is impossible to know how they will do. Time To Move On is making his debut for Laura Morgan having shown little over hurdles on soft ground so chasing debut on quick ground is rather different. Quite frankly anyone backing him is having a guess or has knowledge on how he is likely to run. Nicky Henderson can't r

Won at 2/1. 22 / 66 + 26.19 lsp. +15.92 lsp for the month so guaranteed a profit this month.

Great to see you back posting again 🙂

2.05 Market Rasen Valentino Dancer 11/1 3.00 Newbury Royal Crusade 11/1 3.40 Newbury Delmona 11/1 4.45 Newbury Mawenzi 3/1 Good luck all CNBB.

Once again we’re in the lap of the gods regarding the weather for tomorrows card at Ascot. Its currently rattling fast and good to firm but with the possibility of the best part of an inch of a rain conditions could easily ease overnight. Or alternatively the localised showers could fail to materialise and we could be racing on a sound surface. I won’t be getting involved until the morning when I see how much rain the track has attracted. The forecast is a lot simpler at York with decent fast ground likely. 7 races on ITV and here’s my thoughts and betting strategy: - Ascot 150

14.20 Thirsk The Dunkirk Lads £2.70 win at 8.6 = £20.11 profit if it wins. No bad reports on this one though it has drifted from 4/1 last night. The favourite has a lot of weight which is largely offset by a 5lbs claimer. Not confident about this one for a Trixie 14.30 Asc Blow Your Horn £6 win at 4.5 = £20.58 profit if it wins. Looks like punters are relying on 3 year old records in this race for the favourite to win. the media are banging on about its good second at Chester. Well Chester is no where like Ascot so once again the favourite is not Trixie material 3.00 Asc Dreaml

Flat selection Sandown 4.30 LADY ROCKSTAR 7/5

speed figures for the 2yo listed 2:10 race at sandown could be interesting, we will see. don't put your granny's pension on though. 1 qipao 121 7/1 2 fabiosa 117 25/1 3 almohandesah 113 20/1

Sandown 2.10 Inspiral 15/8 3.20 Old News 7/2 Worcester 2.55 Galsworthy 13/8 3.30 Forthegreatergood 10/11 Yarmouth 3.10 Smokey Malone 5/2 3.45 Fen Tiger 15/4 4.50 Castana Dia 4/5 Good luck all, too many seconds for my liking, CNBB. Damn it I had £129 coming of that Old News just for the double.

Flat selection Sandown 6.00 C'MON KENNY 7/4 Due to the number of restricted accounts I have decided to now place these bets at BSP.

I've had a good year so far with 6 profitable months but July is proving disappointing. I think we try and find logic for good or bad runs but I suspect it's just the randomness of numbers.

Wolverhampton 1.00 Russco 2/1 2.10 Right Action 7/4 2.45 Tarroob 5/2 3.20 Kodiak Attack 9/4 Ffos Las 1.55 Whistledown 6/5 2.30 Neenees Choice 7/4 4.15 Hesperis 5/4 4.45 Asadjumeirah 15/8 Good luck all CNBB.

Beverley 6.45 Blu Boy 9/4 7.50 Amelia R 11/10 Windsor 7.05 Hersilia 9/4 8.10 Future 13/8 Good luck all CNBB.

Result Cartmel 01:50 CATCHMEIFYOUCAN.....1st..2/1 Todays Profit = + 20.00 pts Current Years Profit 2021 = + 16.91 pts (Years Profit 2020 = +17.50 pts.) (Years Profit 2019 = + 287.87 pts.) (Years Profit 2018 = + 90.52 pts.) (Years Profit 2017 = - 73.44 pts.) (Years Profit 2016 = + 437.86 pts.) (Years Profit 2015 = + 18.52 pts.) (Years Loss 2014 = - 30.20 pts.)  (Years Loss 2013 = - 105.06 pts.) (Years Profit 2012 = +127.65 pts.) (Years Loss 2011 = - 13.82 pts.)    (Years Profit 2010 = +166.01 pts.

Only looked at two races so far using my revised selection worksheet 3.20 Ayr Shelir £8.15 win at 3.75 = £20.00 profit if win. Ins bet is £2 win at 5.8 on Maries Diamond at 5.8 = £1.42 if that wins Fascinating class 2 contest. Any one of the top four market contenders may win this. Strictly speaking should have got 4/1 about my selection(s). Gone for top rated Timeform horse and the in form David O'meara team. My insurance bet is on the Timeform selection and top RPR Nap rated horse 4.10 Cart Tonto's Spirit £10.20win at 3.20 = £20.03 profit if it wins. Had an insurance bet on

I’ll be concentrating on the jumps again. 2.30 Stratford , Wbee 13/8 clear on my ratings and surely will be difficult to beat. Only been raised 2Ibs for winning lto . 3.40 Stratford , Solar Impulse 9/2 11 now but in fine form and was unlucky to not get the 3 wins on the bounce, falling whilst leading and in command. He’s my top rated in the race, but two things stand out. He’s got a useful 5Ibs claimer on board which offsets his 2Ib rise from lto when he fell. Also he beat Franky Du Berlais by 6 lengths 2 starts back who romped home by 7-8 lengths in a grade 3 on Satu

return 62.50, profit 42.50 this month - minus 22.82

Have done some analysis and have not had much success so far. I thought I had found a good factor to work with regarding ratings in the 1.50 at Newbury. The Morning Line were banging on about Real World having gone up 14lbs for this race. Yet Timeform & RPR have it as top rated Clear by 3 and two points. Ahah, I thought is the weak spot between top ratings and increased marks? I decided to look at the other two main rivals. Derab doesn't seem to have ratings to work with. On the other hand Movin Time who is -8 and -10 on ratings has gone up 13lbs. Does this mean that Real World shoul

All gone very quiet. The conclusion I've arrived at is that you are better backing your selections if the market agrees. This is the same with my share investments, you are better investing in shares that have been increasing in price rather than shares that have fallen in price, the expression is "don't try and catch a falling knife".

Supersprint Trophy. Bit of a nightmare this (draw, weights) but here are the speed figures. 1 Chipotle 127 9/4 Showtime Mahomes 121 20/1 Vintage Clarets 120 11/4

All prices Bet365: 1.40 Newmarket - 1pt e/w First Crowd @ 9/1 1.50 Newbury - 2pts win Movin Time @ 4/1 2.05 Market Rasen - 1pt e/w Voice of Calm @ 14/1 2.25 Newbury - 1pt e/w Just Hubert @ 11/1 2.40 Market Rasen - 1pt e/w Topofthecotswolds @ 12/1 3.40 Newbury - 1pt win Gubbass @ 13/2 4.10 Newbury - 1pt e/w Dalanijujo @ 10/1 5.05 Ripon - 1pt e/w Firmament @ 9/1

Saturday 10pt Place double 1.50 Newbury 8 runners - 3 places Derab 2.55 Newmarket 8 runners - 3 places @ 5/6 Really looking forward to seein Thore Hammer Hansen claim his 3lb on Beat Le Bon Bon and i will be there to see this run up the hill It finishes well and will be running on at the end for sure literally just under 2/1 good luck all today time for a nice full english and a few beers

Market Rasen 2.05 Camprond 8.75 Mrs Hyde 8.5 Hooper 8.3 Hang In There 8.25 Valentino Dancer 7.75 big field and very competitive going by the ratings . I’ve put up the top 5 and I’ll note that Valentino Dancer has a trainer and jockey in red hot form, plus he’s Irish trained 😁 . Top 4 rated are all proven class wise so very hard to separate . Unsure what the bet is yet as top rated is skinny odds . Might be better going ew on a horse just below him in the ratings .

Result Leopardstown 06:30 I SIYOU BABY.....1st..2/1 rule 4 applies @ 5% Todays Profit = + 19.00 pts Current Years Profit 2021 = + 35.91 pts (Years Profit 2020 = +17.50 pts.) (Years Profit 2019 = + 287.87 pts.) (Years Profit 2018 = + 90.52 pts.) (Years Profit 2017 = - 73.44 pts.) (Years Profit 2016 = + 437.86 pts.) (Years Profit 2015 = + 18.52 pts.) (Years Loss 2014 = - 30.20 pts.)  (Years Loss 2013 = - 105.06 pts.) (Years Profit 2012 = +127.65 pts.) (Years Loss 2011 = - 13.82 pts.)    (Years

https://www.itftennis.com/en/news-and-media/articles/tokyo-2020-olympic-tennis-event-draw-mens-and-womens-singles-and-doubles/

July - 11 1pt level stakes win only 15.20 Wol Nacho 7/1 Won 8/1 17.55 Bal Mullaghmore Wave 12/1 Won 18.05 Che San Juan 16/1 Nr Prices as of now b365 18.45 Not Theocrat 7/1 BF Lost +19 July +8

Some nice runs yesterday, with 6 of the selections actually placing but none closed out. 20 Jul 2021 14:30 Ffos Las Chifa 20 Jul 2021 14:45 Wolverhampton Asdaa 20 Jul 2021 16:45 Ffos Las Temple Bruer 20 Jul 2021 18:05 Chelmsford Irish Times 20 Jul 2021 19:35 Chelmsford Lexington Force 20 Jul 2021 20:40 Chelmsford Headingley

When I backed maidens I used to only look at those who had had at least 2 runs and had combined form figures from their last 2 runs of 6 to 10 (i.e. 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 33 etc). Over the last few years these have produced 1,337 winners from 7,661 runners with a BSP profit of £828 and an AE of 1.05.

The fact that the same question is being debated 14 years later, shows he has staying power at least. He is prone to errors of judgement. The biggest one would be choosing Hayley when you already had Emma. But hey, no accounting for taste.

Leandro Riedi (+6.5) to beat Federico Delbonis at 1.91 with Unibet Swiss tennis will have to start working without Federer and Wawrinka soon, with Stricker and Riedi being the most promising talents at the moment. Stricker has already made a name for himself, while Riedi needs to step out of the juniors and do some damage. He's just 18, but I've seen him twice this year and he's a good prospect. In front of his home crowd, I think the handicap can be taken care of.

Did a few doubles for interest 1.30 Newton Abbot Courtland 5/4 3.25 Chantilly Creative Flair 11/10 1.57 Stratford Karannelle 4/1 2.30 Stratford Wbee 11/10 2.15 Redcar Hear Me Roar 5/4 2.50 Redcar Out The Hat 9/4 3.40 Stratford Hatcher 2/1 4.50 Stratford Get A Buck 5/2 And a wee fiver on 3.15 Newton Abbot Dolly McQueen 15/2 Good luck all CNBB.

Tough day but i'm on 2 e/w over the jumps at Market Rasen the first one one is in the 2.05 MRS HYDE looks a very generous 16/1 5places BOG & in the 2.40 i backed TOPOFTHE COTSWOLDS yesterday when market opened at 16/1 5places not bog i think NTD horse has a cracking e/w shot his son rides the fav for another trainer but shrewd dad sticks a 3lb claimer on this horse.

@Darran thanks for the write up. You’ve mentioned that the horse was rated 68 and was then ‘dropped’ to 83?

3.10 Market Rasen Taste The Fear 7.25 Giovanni Change 7.15 only 8 go to post . I’d struggle to try and get the top two rated beat . I really like top rated and trainer and jockey in form. Second rated trainer is running cold. Taste The Fear 7/2 10 points win

430 ripon brilliant light 9-2 any 515 newmarket star of orion 9-2 ladbrokes 620 haydock glen esk 2-1 any

July 0 1pt level stakes win only 15.00 New Royal Commando 14/1 pp 16.35 Cur Share the Honour 12/1 b365 17.25 Car Sea the Sea 16/1 b365 Prices as of now 15.40 New Adaaay in Asia 33/1 b365