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  1. 7 points

    Tennis Tips - November 5 - November 11

    Challenger Champaign qualification Sem Verbeek vs. Keenan Mayo => Keenan Mayo @ 3.77 Sbobet stake: 4/10 Mayo is a very solid prospect, he had a very good junior career, beating top prospects like Brandon Nakashima or Nicolas Mejia in 2018 there, both regular Top 5 junior players. He competed on a high level there and is training at the USTA Training Center West at the StubHub Center in Carson so he has a good support. We can expect some things from him in the future i guess but first Mayo will play for Illinois at College so he decided to go the college way of a tennis player, they gave him a Wild Card for the qualies here: https://fightingillini.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=8450&path= ; Yesterday he beat Maxime Mora in three sets but looked very good, served well and played well although it was a close match for two sets.Verbeek is a solid opponent, ballbasher style, good serve and left-handed, also a (former) college player but the Dutch is a bit limited, could be enough on a fast indoor court but i think it will be a tight match where Mayo will have his chances.
  2. 7 points
    As I often write I love punting on the FA Cup as you usually get some great betting opportunities and I never really understand why people want to leave it alone. I think in some ways it can be easier to make money from it than the league action. I am going to tip up a couple of upsets, but nothing at really huge odds has really grabbed me this year. I’m sure a big price will land, but there didn’t seem an obvious candidate for me this time around. Maidenhead v Portsmouth This game is the live Saturday lunchtime match on BT Sport and it is easy to see why they choose it, but I would be really shocked if we see an upset here. Maidenhead are in desperate form at the moment having lost 6 on the bounce in the league and they needed a replay to see off National League South side Chippenham to reach the 1st Round. Now defeats to the likes of Salford and Leyton Orient I can understand, but they have lost to Havant and Dover in their last two matches. Granted they had their keeper sent off in the Havant game whilst it was still 1-0 and they had to play with an outfield play in goals for over 50 minutes, but to lose 7-0 still isn’t great. In those 6 games they have conceded 23 times and scored just once and I think they are just about the worst side in the National League at the moment. Portsmouth on the other-hand are the best team they could possibly be facing as they sit 3 points clear at the top of League 1 at the moment. The have lost just one league game all season and they should be able to see off the home side with little fuss. Obviously they are priced up accordingly but the 10/11 for them to cover the -1 handicap makes a lot of appeal. Aldershot v Bradford Another game where a National League side takes on a League 1 side, but Bradford are at the opposite end of the table. They have lost 13 of their 17 games in League 1 and have just 10 points. If we narrow it down to their last 10 games they have picked up just 4 points, scored only 6 goals and have lost 6 games on the bounce. They won’t be looking forward to going to an Aldershot side that are very strong at home. They don’t look the same side who has reached the play-offs in the last couple of seasons, but their home form has been very strong with them winning 6 of their 10 games at home and losing just 2 of them. One of those defeats was to Maidstone and it’s fair to say Aldershot completely dominated the game and should have won. This tie is just the sort of match that I look for as a possible upset as Bradford will be very low on confidence and Aldershot have northing to lose. Betfair are best about a home win at 11/5. Chesterfield v Billericay The backing Chesterfield to draw theory proved profitable again last week, although Harrogate left it very late to equalize. For new readers Chesterfield have now drawn 8 of their last 10 league games. They might be playing a team from the league below this week, but obviously Billericay are no ordinary Step 2 team. I think they are more than capable of holding their own and they can easily get a replay. The draw is priced up at 12/5 with Bet365. Maidstone v Macclesfield I rarely bet in the Football League, but my first ante-post bet of the year was backing Macclesfield to go straight back down. Fair play to them on wining the National League title last season, but they weren’t the best team in the league (something Tranmere are showing this season). They have very little money and with John Askey moving on it was always going to be a tough task. So far so good with that bet as they have only picked up 7 points, winning just the once. Now Maidstone are hardly the best side in the National League and they have only won once at home in the league, but I think this is just the sort of game that will see the home side perform at their best which will make them very dangerous against a team who are basically a National League side anyway. Bet365 and Betfair go 11/5 about a home win and that makes plenty of appeal. Barnet v Bristol Rovers In the 2013/14 Conference Premier season these two teams finished first and second, which is probably why the BBC have moved it to a Sunday lunchtime. A bit like how Macclesfield weren’t the best team last season I thought Bristol Rovers were the best team that season (this coming from someone who backed Barnet for the title ante-post) and they have done well since finding themselves in League 1. Barnet are already back in Non-League football and they have had no luck with injuries this season. I think John Still has a strong squad and could still make the play-offs, but performances have been a bit in and out and they weren’t great in a 2-0 defeat by Maidstone last week. Rovers’ away form has been pretty solid as they may have lost 4 of their 9 away league games, but they were all by a single goal. They have drawn 3 and won twice. This is obviously a much easier task than they usually have and they should be odds on to win this in my view so 21/20 (William Hill and Skybet) looks a good bet to me. FA Cup Acca There are 5 teams who I think look bankers this weekend and the acca pays just over 5/1 with Skybet. I have already mentioned Portsmouth so they certainly go in. On the Friday night the BBC have decided to show Haringey v AFC Wimbledon which was an easy choice and people may think because the Dons are struggling in League 1 that their might be an upset. I can’t see it though as Haringey are a below average Step 3 side and the gulf in class is huge. It is also worth noting that Haringey had a pretty kind draw to make it to the 1st Round. Another Step 3 side Met Police are at home to League 2 Newport and again it is hard to see how Newport don’t have a fairly comfortable afternoon. Tranmere host National League South side Oxford City and they should be too strong for them. Finally on the Sunday Hitchin, who are another struggling Step 3 side, host National League side Solihull Moors. Moors are having a superb season and can add to that by making it to the 2nd Round. Portsmouth -1 3pts @ 10/11 with Skybet and Betfred Aldershot 1pt @ 11/5 with Betfair Chesterfield v Billericay 1pt draw @ 12/5 with Bet365 Maidstone 1pt @ 11/5 with Bet365 and Betfair Bristol Rovers 2.5pts @ 21/20 with William Hill and Skybet AFC Wimbledon/Portsmouth/Newport/Tranmere/Solihull 1pt acca @ 5/1 with Skybet
  3. 6 points
    Challenger Champaign Jeffrey John Wolf vs. Jared Hiltzik => Jared Hiltzik @ 2.51 Sbobet stake: 4/10 Always liked to bet on Jared Hiltzik in Illinois, especially Champaign. Made some good profit in the past as Jared is a University of Illinois Alum and was born in Wilmette so this is more than a home tournament for him, some kind of a special thing. He had some really good results in the past in Champaign for example beating names like Krueger, Bhambri and having tight matches with Kudla, McDonald or Laaksonen. Wolf is a decent prospect, i think he might can break through next year but he is just turning pro and despite having some good results i think Hiltzik has a pretty good chance to reach the second round in Champaign for the third time in a row.
  4. 6 points
    If you want to see most of my bets for this weekend then go to the FA Cup forum as that is where they are. With only BetVictor having priced up the FA Trophy that means there aren't that many league games to get my teeth stuck into so I only have the one bet in the National League North. Hereford v FUCM I wrote last week that FCUM look like they were improving and it was a bit frustrating for them to blow their lead that night only for them to come out and easily beat Blyth on the Saturday. Hopefully it can pay off backing them here because they look a big price to do so. I also opposed Hereford on that Tuesday night and they also got a point against AFC Telford. They also got a point last Saturday, but their run without a win continues and although there are signs of improvement given they have drawn 3 of their last 4 games, it is hard to understand how FCUM are such a big price given FCUM have still had the better recent results. They have actually been backed in which isn't a surprise, but I still think 11/4 (Betfred) is too big and I suspect the price will continue to fall. FCUM 1pt @ 11/4 with Betfred
  5. 6 points

    Tennis Tips - November 5 - November 11

    Ch Champaign Qualif. Gui Gomes vs. Aron Hiltzik => Gui Gomes @ 5.0 Betfair stake: 2/10 Gomes tall, huge serve, good power in his shots. Hiltzik of course solid enough to be the favorite but he is too inconsistent, has some bad losses or even sets lost to average players. Odds are looking good enough to try. Small stake!
  6. 5 points
    Alexander Zverev to beat Marin Cilic at 1.88 with Pinnacle The same reasoning as with the Thiem-Anderson match, Zverev has just been better in recent weeks. I reckon that it's possible to say that Cilic managed to play well in Paris, but Zverev was good there as well and the dominant H2H isn't without its reasons.
  7. 5 points
    All of last year's winning team have confirmed availability so I'm pleased to confirm our team to defend our title in 2019 is Helen (Capt) @avongirl Al @teaulc Andy @andybell666 (MVP) Barry @Barry John Dan @Danshot Mick @staffy Paul @muttley Wayne @Nosey-P If anyone becomes unavailable please let me know immediately so we can fill the place. @ian309 hope you find a team but you are first sub if you don't.
  8. 5 points
    Red Star Belgrade vs Liverpool The Champions League is back this week and Group C delivers our first preview. Serbian club Red Star Belgrade will play Premier League side Liverpool and with the Reds destroying their hosts in the previous clash 4-0 just 2 weeks ago it's a chance for the home team to regain some respect. It kicks off at 5:55pm tonight at the Rajko Mitic Stadium. Red Star Belgrade are one of the great European teams. Younger members of this forum might not remember their famous 1991 European Cup victory on penalties against a brilliant Marseille side that included the likes of Jean-Pierre Papin, Basile Boli, and Chris Waddle. That said, the Red Star side had a lot of names that would go on to do great things such as Robert Prosinecki, Sinisa Mihajlovic, and Dejan Savicevic. This current squad pales in comparison to that side but they remain the dominant side in Serbian football. Unfortunately, they need a win here if they are to realistically keep their hopes of progressing to the last 16 alive. They have picked up 1 point in a 0-0 draw with Napoli so far. That game was at home. In fact, they are undefeated at home in European action this season with Napoli, Red Bull Salzburg, Spartak Trnava, Suduva Marijampole, and Spartaks Jurmala all visiting Belgrade and failing to walk away with a win. This won't be easy for Liverpool in a hostile atmosphere. Liverpool will be hoping to stretch their lead at the top of the group. Victories over PSG and Red Star Belgrade have ensured the solitary defeat to Napoli away hasn't been too detrimental. It'll be tough for Jurgen Klopp's men who will likely not win by more than a single goal. I'm not going to back Red Star to get the win here but I'd be surprised if Liverpool romped home with a convincing victory. The home side have failed to score in their last two home matches in European competition but they're also hard to break down having conceded just 1 goal in 5 home European games this season. If I was backing a correct score I'd say Liverpool to win 1-0. Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 2.65 with Unibet Red Star Belgrade +2 @ 2.35 with SportingBet @vasilli07, @Xcout, @Icongene, @KikoCy, @DrBetter, @Duuc, @DrO, @immortal--, @Notorious, @betcatalog, @KingSoccertips, @discipline, @Pep004, @HastGill1, @ElPrincipito007, @salmonman, @DW_United, @allthethings, @MightyWell, @liamcorrigan86, @mijOsim, @dorleywilliams, @soccerprediction123, @TOTTI3, @LePapo, @seifer365, @MPLouis, @Jack A, @JJG, @Pipoca, @neilovan, @wcz, @newjack, @matt-e-matticle, @EBTA, @cluelessG, @mtom, @Marek76, @allyhibs, @alani42, @jazzman02, @hristofor, @fhuefdsa and @WinningAdvice, I've gone for a big call this week with a lot of people backing a big Liverpool win. I'm not sure. No easy games in Europe away these days. What are your thoughts on these tips?
  9. 5 points

    Tennis Tips - November 5 - November 11

    i just checked my stats since my comeback here in october and i am shocked about the numbers... Total bets: 19 Won: 11 Void: 0 Lost: 8 Staked: 63.5 Units Back: +81.92 Units Yield: 129%
  10. 4 points
    ATP Bangalore Cem Ilkel to beat Trungelliti @ 2.8 with Heritage Argentine is clay court player
  11. 4 points
    Challenger Kobe Jordi Samper-Montana vs. Shuichi Sekiguchi => Shuichi Sekiguchi @ 1.862 Pinnacle stake: 4/10 Samper-Montana is 28 years old and has a 0-3 record on indoor courts losing to players like Diez or Ilhan both not famous for their strong indoor records. This guy has no business on being a fav vs a local home player like Sekiguchi who has a solid record at those japanese indoor tournaments on indoor hard or even carpet. Odds already dropped a bit but still good enough to take!! Confidence is much higher here than my stake, probably 7 or 8 out of 10.
  12. 4 points
    Nah, not a chance. Warnock has the entire backing of the fan base. The problem is player quality and depth. Our supporters are happy to accept that for the time being we are dealing with a tightly run ship after decades of diabolical financial management. Vincent Tan took some hard, and deserved, criticism during his early years with the re-brand etc. However, since the switch back to blue he's really got the club in order. The general feeling is that this season is a freebie. We got promoted 2-3 seasons earlier than expected so we're here to enjoy the ride. If we stay up then great but if we go back down then, in Warnock, we have a manager that can get us back up and then he's openly admitted he'll hand over to another manager. Simply switching managers doesn't always help. We are still actually performing better in games than our results suggest. We are a clinical striker away from being a mid-table team. The likes of Sean Dyche and Rafa Benitez have already said they don't think we'll go down because the manager clearly has the support of the dressing room. We know people will continue to write us off and we're happy with that. This group of players thrive when written off. We've got nothing to lose. We'd rather give it a proper crack with Warnock than sack him off in favour of gambling on another manager for the sake of it.
  13. 4 points
    Cardiff vs Brighton I must apologise after last weekend. I went down with a nasty chest infection which I still can't bloody shift but I'm on the mend. That meant I couldn't deliver the third Premier League preview. Cue the sighs of disappointment. Anyway, the good news is that as a result of that you benefit from four preview instead of the usual three this weekend! Cue cheers of joy! The first match we begin with is my beloved Cardiff welcoming Brighton the the Cardiff City Stadium for a 12:30pm kick-off. The Bluebirds will face a tough challenge here against a streetwise Seagulls side but will be keen to get back to winning ways after back-to-back defeats to Liverpool and Leicester. Last weekend was a strange one. It was such an emotional game. Neither Leicester nor Cardiff played very well at all. Clearly events surrounding the game had an impact on everyone. It was right for the game to be played but it's clear neither side was at 100% mentally. Cardiff will want to win here. They need to make Cardiff City Stadium a fortress against the mid-table sides if they are to stay up. The disappointing thing about last week is that Leicester were there for the taking. I think if we'd have scored first they wouldn't have come back into it. As soon as they scored that opening goal we never looked like getting back in it. We are currently sat in 19th place but a win could potentially lift us to 16th place. Our scoring problems continue to rage on. The fact Gary Madine came on against Leicester and Callum Paterson (signed as a right back and primarily used as a central midfielder) has been our most effective striker sums it all up. Bobby Reid has shown sparks but Kenneth Zohore lacks the attitude and Danny Ward is hit and miss. I want us to play on the front foot on Saturday like we did against Fulham. Then we might stand a chance. Brighton continue to suffer an awful away record. Their 1-0 away victory against Newcastle on 20th October was their first away win since 4th November, 2017 when they beat Swansea 1-0 at the Liberty Stadium. If they are hoping to win here it will mean breaking a duck of three visits to Cardiff without a victory. The last win coming in a 2-0 win back on 19th February, 2013. I'm not sure why but I'm quietly optimistic about this game. There's no denying that we were poor against Leicester and Neil Warnock never tolerates two abject performances in a row. I expect us to be fully fired up for this clash. The odds on us winning are really tempting so I'm taking the rare step of backing it. Come on you Bluebirds! Sorry, @Tiffy! Cardiff to Win @ 2.62 with Betfair BTTS @ 2.10 with Boylesports @Mindfulness, @Pep004, @MaliMisko12, @betcatalog, @sajtion, @godofhorses, @Tiffy, @waynecoyne, @The Sexless Innkeeper, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @Duke_Tm, @dogmeister, @Arkadi Manucharov, @derbent, @fat, @allyhibs, @6avin24, @discipline, @the bastardian, @Bronxie, @Bett, @KikoCy, @teddybear3011, @markus808, @allthethings, @Kenton Schweppes, @vasilli07, @Dylan Lynch, @neilovan, @JKos, @zemo91, @kulikTS, @mrclubbie, @Judeksi, @Henind666, @Teodore, @kilkenny1, @newjack, @PokerWolf1, @Dave1X2, @real55555, @jazzman02, @Ameer13, @Gedkip, @mcsilks, @MangoTheThird, @Roy The Boy, @DonPaulo, @Duckets, @sjuesju, @dylanphan, and @AndreBR, what do you guys think of my above preview? Any thoughts on the betting this week?
  14. 4 points
    Well played all, good games as usual, especially Dan who bossed it!
  15. 4 points

    Tennis Tips - November 5 - November 11

    Thailand F8 Abhinav Sanjeev Shanmugam vs. Igor Smilansky => Abhinav Sanjeev Shanmugam @ 4.22 Sbobet stake: 1/10 First time i saw Shanmugam play was at the beginning of the season in Chennai Challenger in February where he beat Ivan Nedelko after winning three matches in qualifying too. Shanmugam is a really aggressive player with huge serve and strong forehand, he has some kind of potential, of course he is more a ballbasher but he has some talent and i doubt his opponent Smilansky is out of reach here. Smilansky almost only plays Futures, he is solid but his level depends on his daily shape and i think he is beatable on a bad day.
  16. 4 points

    Tennis Tips - November 5 - November 11

    Challenger Bratislava Doubles N. Gombos/L. Klein vs. T. Brkic/A. Pavic => N. Gombos/L. Klein @ 2.78 Sbobet 3.5/10 I expect Brkic and Pavic to lose early here as Pavic will play in India next week i assume, probably has to play qualification at the weekend in Bangalore where he has to defend a quarterfinal.
  17. 4 points

    Tennis Tips - November 5 - November 11

    ITF Colina Ivania Martinich vs. Fernanda Labrana => Fernanda Labrana @ 3.27 Pinnacle stake: 3/10 Labrana was Top 50 junior player, competed on the highest international level there and then decided to switch to go to college. Texas signed her last year: https://texassports.com/news/2017/11/27/womens-tennis-signs-chilean-standout-fernanda-labra-a.aspx Now she is playing for Texas, going into her second year and playing some pro tournaments from time to time. Martinich is 25 years old, was never ranked higher than 692 and is average imo. She had a couple of bad losses this year and she hasn't played for almost 1,5 months now. I think this is pretty equal matchup.
  18. 3 points

    Tennis Tips - November 5 - November 11

    No man, these guys are doing a great job here, all of us, i had a good streak but tennis is tough sports to bet on, everything can change quickly...lets hope our streak will continue and we'll make good profit out of the last two weeks of the season!!
  19. 3 points
    GOOD match from Gomes, had some problems in the first but came back strong and finished well. Have some good picks for tomorrow, will post it later on. Total bets: 28 Won: 16 Void: 0 Lost: 12 Staked: 84 Units Back: +104.02 Units Yield: 124% +100 units won here in the last few weeks, let's finish the season strong !!!
  20. 3 points

    FA Cup Predictions > Nov 9th - 12th

    F Yeah I am very surprised by that although but there we go. Aldershot sadly couldn’t hold on but the other 3 bets were winners and my one non league bet won at a huge price as well.
  21. 3 points
    Valiant Thor

    Roll Back Time 2

    B365 pays 6 places @ 1/4 odds Buzz came 5th @ 8/1.... winner winner chicken dinner Staked 2 Returned 3 Profit 1
  22. 3 points
    Kevin Anderson to beat Dominic Thiem at 1.91 with BetVictor The stats back this bet up for all kinds of reasons, but it's more about my gut feeling in the end. These final events often come to form and freshness, which are things that Thiem simply wasn't showing from the US Open onwards. Anderson, on the other hand, really came alive in the final months, so I'd make him a 1.70 fav here.
  23. 3 points

    Tennis Tips - November 5 - November 11

    Challenger Kobe qualification Ivan Sabanov vs. Masayoshi Ono => Masayoshi Ono @ 4.20 10bet stake: 4/10 Looks like incredible value but let's see. Ono is solid enough to beat a doubles only player like Sabanov who is to be honest nothing special. Ono has a lot of decent results vs. much better opponents and i am pretty sure he will play his best at home in Kobe.
  24. 3 points
    Cardiff City V Brighton & Hove Albion X @ 3.16 Marathonbet As @StevieDay1983 has already mentioned, Cardiff lack a ruthless goalscorer. The spirit level is good with the Bluebirds at present and this is reflected in the ELO ratings. Despite this, I prefer to go with X here rather than home team DNB or AH 0 line. Brighton are notoriously poor on the road in the EPL but their defence is worthy of respect and I doubt the Seaweeds will be too phased when facing this Cardiff attack. Brighton are also in good spirits at present and the two sides may well cancel each other out here. On a side note, completely agree with @StevieDay1983 regarding Neil Warnock. He is one of the best managers in English league football and fully deserves another shot at keeping an underdog team in the EPL. Cardiff's biggest asset is their manager. Southampton V Watford X @ 3.40 Unibet ELO ratings are very close here, some folks will side with the away team on the +0.25 AH line and that's fair enough. I prefer X as I think this could be another game where neither team is strong enough to win it. Watford will miss Etienne Capoue for this match, his grit and industry is quite important for Javi Gracia's side, particularly within the current system they deploy. Nathaniel Chalobah is a quality replacement but he isn't quite as strong with the defensive side of the game. Watford have clearly outperformed Southampton so far this campaign but this is the type of match which could be a little awkward for Doucoure & co. Low defensive blocks and plenty of shooting from downtown will probably be on the menu here, Southampton vice-chairman Les Reed has made a bee line for the exits, Mark Hughes will try and avoid getting stung by the hornets... If this game ends in stalemate we will be buzzing.
  25. 3 points

    Europa League Predictions > Nov 8th

    The Scots play virtually their ... turn to today's game, because if they do not win this time they will hardly reverse the situation. A fast pace is expected in the match and with a lot of luck we will see many goals CELTIC GLASGOW vs RB LEIPZIG @@ +2.50 Over, odds 1.75 Without much stress both teams and this will help to see a good match in London. With the quality that the Goal / Goal distinguishes and fills well ARSENAL FC vs SPORTING CP @@ Both team to score, odds 2.00 I do not think the difference between the two teams is what they showed in Tumba, I think PAOK has the quality to get a positive result. If he is serious today, he can go undefeated from Hungary VIDI FC vs PAOK @@ +0 Ah PAOK, odds 1.65
  26. 3 points

    Tennis Tips - November 5 - November 11

    Challenger Knoxville Michael Redlicki vs. Marcelo Arevalo => Michael Redlicki @ 2.21 Pinnacle stake: 4/10 Well, i can't say i was impressed with Arevalo last week in Charlottesville. He lost 46 26 to Serdarusic and looked out of form, return was weak and his serve also wasn't working. Despite the fact Arevalo has the natural abilities to play solid on indoor courts as he is tall, has a good serve and net game and power in his groundstrokes he simply is not having any special results there in the past. His record is 5-12 overall and he is in his late 20s so i doubt it will be much better one day. His opponent should like the conditions, Michael Redlicki is a very good prospect who finished his collegiate career in 2017 at Arkansas. Redlicki is very tall, has a huge lefty serve and knows how dictate points. I doubt he is the underdog here considering his performances in the qualification tournament and Arevalo playing super weak last week.
  27. 3 points
    ATP Next Gen Finals Alex de Minaur vs. Liam Caruana => Liam Caruana @ 9 5dimes stake: 1/10 Another try, lower stake than Munar who did well vs Tsitsipas. Those matches at Next Gen finals are always tight and tough to predict as the formata is completly different to normal tennis: No ad scoring, time clock, sets to 4....and so on. I think it might favor the underdog here. Odds are dropped on de Minaur and i think he is the solid fav here but odds around ~ 9 here are way too high. Caruana is solid, i saw him vs Johnson in Auckland at the beginning of the season and he has some talent. Last years Wild Card Quinzi did very well at the tournament, losing five setters to Rublev and Chung and won a set vs Shapovalov too. Expect another solid performance by Caruana this year in all three matches. Maybe it's worth to try him at high odds like this.
  28. 2 points
    Valiant Thor

    Rolling back time

    Going through some pen drives of mine yesterday I found some old systems from the now defunct Racing-Systems forum (some may remember it some not) Anyway this one states approx 80% sr from selections , it must have had some substance / logic about it or else I wouldn't have saved it . Going to give it a re-run to see how it fares , prices wont be great but as long as Im getting over 1/4 then if the sr holds up then yo ho ho as the fat guy in red says. As I rarely bet on horses in twig hopping season this might add a bit of interest (as long as the selections dont keep falling over things like most of them do), Not going to go mad so I'll risk a max drawdown of £100 so @ 5% rolling bank per bet so its a 20 bets or out, First bet 3.50 Sedge Im To Blame £5 @ 1.57 B365
  29. 2 points
    Not too many Non-League games this mid-week but a couple of matches have caught my eye from a betting point of view. Hereford v Southport (National League North) The knives are out for Marc Richards from the Hereford fans already. The fans weren't happy in the first place that he was the new manager and given they are yet to win under him they are getting angrier by the match. Opposing them on Saturday was a very profitable decision as FCUM ran out 3-1 winners having scored their goals in the space of 4 1st half minutes. They are now in the relegation zone and if Ricco doesn't turn it around soon then he will probably regret moving from Gloucester last month and taking up the role here. Usually I would want to oppose a team who are coming off the back of a big FA Cup win as Southport are doing, but there are strong signs that they are turning their season around. They put in a very impressive performance to win 4-1 against Kidderminster in their last league game and then followed that up with a 2-0 win against Boreham Wood on Saturday which was a good effort as Wood always make themselves hard to beat. I hope that those performances mean they now have the momentum and instead of being distracted by the Cup they use it as an incentive to start climbing the table especially as they face a team who are going to be under huge pressure in front of their own fans. At 89/50 with Marathon I think Southport are a decent bet. Dartford v Oxford City (National League South) After watching my 7th game of the season in this division on Saturday I feel strongly that their is little between the sides in this division this season and games are generally being won via small margins rather than teams being superior. That means taking short odds is going to generally be a bit of a risky proposition, however I am going to back Dartford here because I think there is a very strong case to do so. Dartford have only lost once in their last 7 games and are finally getting going after a slow start to the season. At home they have only lost once so far and given the tightness of the division they will be one of many teams eyeing up a play-off spot. They didn't have a game on Saturday so will have had extra rest ahead of this one which is something Oxford certainly didn't have. Fair play to City because I didn't think they would be in the hat for the 2nd Round draw, but they put in a hell of a performance to draw 3-3 with Tranmere on Saturday. That game is surely going to have left it's mark and it would be easy to think they will be having their minds on the replay which must have a high chance of being on TV. Prior to winning at Hampton last time out they had only picked up 1 away point all season and that came at Weston. The home side are basically even money with Marathon and for me there are very sound reasons to think that is too big. Southport 2pts @ 89/50 with Marathon Dartford 3pts @ 99/100 with Marathon
  30. 2 points
    Yesterday we saw Ruby Walsh come off two very well backed favourites at the final obstacle, all jockeys fall, all jockeys have bad days but i find it amazing the amount of times it seems to happen to him, the supposedly best national hunt jockey around. A couple of years ago a study was performed by Kevin Blake and it proved that Walsh did indeed fall off his horses at the final fence far more times than any other leading rider, so what is the reason for this, any thoughts? Does he take it too easy, being over confident as he is normally on the best horse. Does he give the horse too much to do so needs to ask for that extra big jump. Is it just plain old nerves, and he gets anxious as he approaches the last? It becoming a big problem now and it must prey on his mind as he clears the second last without any problem and races down to the final fence. As was the case when this analysis was first undertaken, the initial point of interest for many will be that Ruby has the highest fall/unseat rate (5.27%) of all the top riders examined. This is 26.1% higher than the average of 4.18% amongst the other nine riders examined and 5.8% higher than the overall fall/unseat rate of 4.98% amongst all the riders in Great Britain and Ireland. To conclude, Ruby Walsh’s mounts have fallen or unseated him at the final obstacle at more than double the average rate of other top jockeys examined in this study since 2009. They fell or unseated him when in front at the final obstacle at a rate that is almost four times that of the average of the same top jockeys in the same period. These are indisputable facts which have been established from a substantial set of data.
  31. 2 points
    21-27 +25.36 units (nishikori cashed @3/1 Ratio) Hiltzik and Zverev both look like wins to me. @Opole you inspired me to dig deeper into the lower ranked players.. so i'm working on that, and creating a file on potential profitable players; especially younger ones, and that win @ positive unitis. I have Hiltzik listed in that file, and not his opponent(who i am unfamiliar with.) gl gents
  32. 2 points
    Results C: Won 5/1 : 60.00 K: Won 1/5, Won 4/1, Won 5/1, Won 5/1, Won 5/2 : 217.00 W: Won 4/6, Won 11/4, Won 6/4, Won 5/2: 114.17 Stakes: 220pts Returns: 391.17pts Totals: 188.50pts Next Up : Carlisle & Kempton on Monday
  33. 2 points

    Division 6 - Week 4 Selections

    Leicester v Burnley X @ 4.20 Getafe v Valencia 2 @ 2.62 Roma v Sampdoria 1 @ 1.44 15 pts Treble
  34. 2 points
    I hate backing odds on but I am adding in us to win at Weston on Sunday lunch. Weston might have picked up a bit in the last couple of games but it is still a team top of the National, with a stingy defence who are capable of grinding out results, against a team rooted to the bottom of the league below. The manager isn't going to play much of a weakened team (at best one or two rested but on the bench) and knows that this is a decent chance to get to round 2. Wrexham at a generally available 1.57
  35. 2 points
    I'm surprised under 2.5 goals is the outsider of the under/over market in the Palace Spurs match. Matches between these two over the past couple of years have been tight, in fact it has been a 1-0 to spurs scoreline in each of the last four league games. Palace also won 1-0 in an FA cup game so the 1-0 streak in all competitions is currently at 5. I see no reason not to think this will be another tight and low goal encounter. Palace don't score many- I think its only 2 home goals all season, both penalties in the last match. Spurs aren't as free scoring as they have been in recent seasons. The outright price on Tottenham does not appeal, though if it drifts to evens i'd be happy to take that price. This will be spurs 8th away PL game already this season, and they've won 6 and only lost 1, so going to Selhurst Park shouldn't faze them. I'd therefore strongly recommend under 2.5 goals at around 2.1, and maybe just for fun 1-0 spurs at around 9.0 to continue the trend.
  36. 2 points
    Valiant Thor

    Rolling back time

    Windsor Avenue wins easily 5.1 @ 1.4 = 2.14 profit Runners 2 Wins 2 Sr 100% Bank 104.28 Next Stake 5.21
  37. 2 points
    I'm an avid Pompey fan and must say that if they play anything like they played against us last Saturday they will be good things against Aldershot. Yes we won 1x0, but having been to all of Pompey's matches this season, both home and away, they were one of our hardest opponents to date, They missed a couple of sitters and had us under pressure for long spells. To me Bradford are the bet of the weekend. Also on our game against Maidenhead, I'll be very surprised if we don't win by at least 3, so going Pompey -2 for the double.
  38. 2 points
    Christ, where do you get this stuff from @Mindfulness? I think you lot are a lot more obsessed with Brighton than they are of you Obviously we don't need clackers now tha we have got Big Glenn up from banging the goals in ( There was such a backlash after the clackers were introduced, the club dare not do it again! They are the naffest thing ever) Magiko- sounds like the sort of foreign import Palace will blow £30 million on, in a vain attempt to stay up. Made me chuckle though, I have moved to Devon now, and am going to watch Torquay V StAlbans on Tuesday, but I'll start the Magiko song off in the Popside & see what response it gets! In all seriousnes, I have been busy moving and selling my businesses. Consequently I have not been putting enough time or clear thinking into my decision making, and its cost me! So I have been off it for a few weeks, just having a break. I did back Torquay to win their league e/w at 34/1 just after GJ took over. They are 9/1 now! Illl stick a post up on this weeks Brighton game, Nice that your thinking of me anyway. Mmmmm, Magiko, Magiko, we will follow you wherever you go, la la la de da, mmmmm, yes Its got a ring to it.
  39. 2 points

    Worlds best horse?

    Spot on Billy in making comparisons,they can only beat what turns up.That is why I always take "World rankings" with a pinch of salt based as it is mostly on races won and where e.g GP1s in Europe Vs the rest.That said the Japanese have sent their best to Europe and failed but only a matter of time before they succeed I think. Enable is obviously exceptional having done what she has but I am certain that Sea Of Class is at least her equal given the circumstances of the Arc? I must admit I am on safer ground with the jumpers than the flat as its mostly UK and Ireland.I have taken a bit more interest this year of the flat because of the Frankel and Sea The Stars progeny.
  40. 2 points
    Good evening everyone, I am still writing this but have decided to let my missus have a go with the predictions as she has been asking me what I am doing when I am on the excellent Punters Lounge Forum, sigh I know, but let her have a shot Cardiff 0 Brighton 1. Sorry @StevieDay1983 the missus doesn't give you the win here, and I have to agree Brighton are settled and they will see this as one they should win, however I think Cardiff will also be thinking the same, that said an away win for me. UNDER 1.5 GOALS 7/4 MARATHON BET & betfair Huddersfield 0 West Ham 2. Not a bad shout this, though with Huddersfield finally off the mark they will definitely fancy this and will hope the inconsistent West Ham turn up, This match caused a long pause for thought before coming up with 0-2 and I have to say so Far I do not disagree. WEST HAM HALF TIME/FULL TIME 3/1 BETVICTOR Leicester 2 Burnley 0. Now here is where me and the missus differ but end up with the same prediction, she predicts 2-0 because of the tragedy that befell Leicester FC & The City, I think they will still win but will be a little tough with all the emotion and travelling sure to play a part. UNDER 2.5 GOALS 101/100 MARATHON BET Newcastle 0 Bournemouth 0. EEEEErrrrrrr no goals in this game is a bold shout, but it could be a profitable one, although Bournemouth will go for it, but will Newcastle sit back and hope to grab a breakaway goal as they did against Watford?? NO GOALSCORER (ALWAYS THE BEST WAY TO GO WHEN 0-0 IS PREDICTED IN CASE AN OWN GOAL WINS IT) 9/1 bet365 & BETFRED Southampton 1 Watford 1. With Southampton floundering and I know I mention on numerous occasions that it baffles me Mark Hughes is still in the top flight management, A draw may not be a bad shout, so i'll give her the benefit of the doubt. BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 23/4 Sporting Bet Crystal Palace 1 Spurs 3. Again not a bad shout I think she is doing ok this would not be far off my prediction to be honest, Spurs will have to much going forward for the eagles and they also seem to be enjoying themselves away from Wembley. OVER 3.5 GOALS 41/20 888sport & 39/19 UNIBET Liverpool 2 Fulham 0. Seems reasonable??? Liverpool back from a disappointing performance in Europe however they will see this out comfortably and 2-0 is a little humble but we will see. DRAW HALFTIME/LIVERPOOL FULLTIME 4/1 BETVICTOR Chelsea 2 Everton 0. Hard to argue with this choice too, I think you can't look past Chelsea being comfortable in this one, with probably a goal in each half being sufficient enough. Chelsea HALFTIME/FULLTIME 23/20 Ladbrokes, CORAL & BETSTARS Arsenal 1 Wolves 0. -0 TO THE Arsenaaaal, remember those days well they are back ha ha ha, Wolves have hit their first wobble and may go to the Emirates and try and hold back which is really against their usual style and Arsenal will nick it. ARSENAL 1-0, 89/10 MARATHON BET AND SO ON TO THE MANCHESTER DERBY, SHE WILL PICK CITY JUST COS I AM UNITED Man City 2 United 1. Well I was a little shocked by this one as in I thought she'd go 3 or 4 nil, but she gives United a goal ' United just don't have what it takes to deal with City, me personally I am fearful of another Hiding similar to the one at Old Trafford a few years back, however the missus goes 2-1 and I'll go with that. CITY HALFTIME/CITY FULLTIME 21/20 William Hill, Coral, BETFRED, BETSTARS & SPORTINGBET There endeth the predictions, have fun everyone and don't be to hard on us I think there are some actually great shouts in there, I am off to have a party with my dad, which means two of my favourite things, BEER & FOOD
  41. 2 points
    Norwich vs Millwall The second preview from the Championship games this week comes from the Norwich versus Millwall game that will take place at 3pm this Saturday at Carrow Road. The Canaries are the in-form team in the division with 4 wins on the trot but can they extend that run of results here against a Millwall side that have won 3 of their last 5 league games? Norwich appeared to be heading down a down park that looked to be set for Daniel Farke's sacking in the early days of this season. However, an EFL Cup-inspired return to form has seen them shoot up the table to 2nd place. They are only denied outright top spot due to goal difference. It is now just 1 loss in their last 11 league games. Millwall are a shadow of the play-off chasers of last season. Neil Harris has seen his team fail to hit any real positive form so far this season. The Lions are loitering in 19th place and are just 1 point above the relegation zone. They've failed to pick up a win on the road so far this season with 2 draws and 6 defeats away. Only Rotherham possess a worse away record in the Championship. It makes total sense to back the Canaries here. Yes, they have lost three times in front of their home fans this season but 2 of those defeats came in August when the club was struggling to find its feet. Farke's side only won 1 of their opening 6 games in that period. They've since won 4 of their 5 home games. They are a team in the ascendancy and having watched them pick my Cardiff apart in the EFL Cup, albeit it a weakened Bluebirds side, I can see them carrying on this positive run for a while longer. Norwich to Win @ 1.91 with Blacktype Norwich HT/FT @ 3.12 with BetVictor
  42. 2 points
    Valiant Thor

    Rolling back time

    Yep spot on, A guy called BRAN posted it, it similar to the JamesStanley one a day Formula. thats the criteria most tipped horse in RP with a max of 1 horse against min odds 1/4, Was proofed on R-S and over the time span gave 79% ish strike rate so thought id give it a new lease of life see how it goes 16yrs on . Gives me something to do
  43. 2 points
    If you've seen the previous threads, you'll see people put their predictions up as the games draw closer. We also encourage others to post up their predictions, so feel free to crack on and give us your predictions.
  44. 2 points
    Premier League predictions Cardiff City - Brighton 2(3.03) 0-1FT Under(2.5) 1.56 Huddersfield Town - West Ham 2(2.25)1-2 FT Leicester City - Burnley 1(1.48) 3-1 FT Over(2.5) 1.86 GG (2.00) Newcastle Utd - Bournemouth X(3.44) 2-2 FT Southampton - Watford 1 (2.42) 1-0 FT Crystal Palace - Tottenham 1(4.44) 2-1FT Over(2.5) 1.68 GG (1.60) Liverpool - Fulham 1 (1.10) 3-0FT Over(2.5) 1.24 Chelsea - Everton 1 (1.40) 3-2FT Over(2.5) 1.50 GG (1.70) 29 Arsenal - Wolves 1(1.55) 1-0 FT Manchester City - Manchester Utd 1(1.35) 2-1 FT Over(2.5) 1.50
  45. 2 points
    Leicester look incredibly short at 1.44 considering they've just flown all the way to Thailand and back, jetlag surely in play and Burnley must be good value on Double Chance.
  46. 2 points
    Some good prices on offer Mynlord and master 288 Erik the red 286 Everything for you 282 Everything for you is an improving type but harshly treated and step up not guaranteed to suit.......top 2 should be suited by step up and recently.suggests van get competitive in this at 12 and 16 look Fab value My Lord and master 10pts ew 12/1 b365 Erik the red 10pts ew 16/1 willh
  47. 2 points
    Never in doubt Getting the hang of this big handicap lark
  48. 2 points
    Results Won 7/4, NR, Won 8/1 EW Stakes: 70pts Returns: 95.50pts Totals: 273.83pts
  49. 2 points

    Naps - Tuesday Nov 6th

    R3,35 Lopes Dancer 33/1 Bet365
  50. 2 points
    My top 2 rated current best prices both @ Unibet 20pts staked win only Cross Counter 11.16pts @ 17/2 Best Solution 8.84pts @ 11/1