Zilzalian

also out is trais fluer and tashkhan @kroni

242 newm Mrs Fitzherbert 40/1 ew bet365

Got all 3 of yours down as positives although the 1:33 is a quandary for me, i have both fabre horses sea the sky, love child, and ottilien dead level so i am going to go with with the 4 yr old love child i have serious doubts about this years classic generation when up against older horses.

Watch the race see what happens im predicting based on data that the horse will fade unless as i pointed out he has tried them at home, the data actually shows 2nd time blinkers work far better, it ran quite well last year in the arc as a 3yo and is german bred so i reallly wanted to back it at 100/1 but have basically crossed it off my shortlist, might i suggest many trainers dont know the actual stats, what i am saying is that a horse first time blinkered that has to run around a bend (they panic) will only win once out of 100. Oddly enough it doesnt apply in jumps racing. Alenquers best chance is if it gets boxed in all the way round to stop it using all its energy up too soon.

I personally think the draw angle is a bit of a red herring in the arc, 4 winners from 20 renewals thats actually 20% . the ground is most significant factor for me if it is Heavy apparently it is soft at the moment with lots of rain forecast, Alpinista is a horse i have highly rated since its first run and i have made plenty of money out of it. Going to give my tips based on soft/heavy going which excludes all the 3year olds, this race is gruelling and the soft/heavy ground means they will be floundering in the last furlong they are just not strong enough at 3yo. The fav on all known form should be Alpinista. Torquator tasso 4yo has been there and done it, is this year stronger than last? No chance. Just look at the result from last year 2nd tarnawa 5yo 3rd hurricane lane 4th adayar 5th sealiway 6th snowfall, broome 11th I wanted to recomend Alenquer ew at 100/1 but Haggis has chosen to experiment by fitting first time blinkers, anyone doing an in depth study on fto blinkers will know that they actually scare/panic a horse into running faster which means they will burn out sooner than they would without them, this is exagerated if they have to run around a bend. so unless Haggis has seriously tried the blinkers at home it is around a 100/1 chance it will win despite any other considerations. ( going to cover this with just a £2 ew just in case foolish bet) The Japanese runners seem to hate heavy ground as they have little or no experience of it so its safe enough to rule those out. So i am left with 6 runners Alpinista 11/2 dr6 likely winner Torquator Tasso 15/2 dr18 Ger likely 2nd/3rd Mendocino 33/1 dr1 Ger likely 2nd/3rd Mare Australis 20/1 dr19 Ger Fabre had many options also Murzabeyev booking seems significant. Sealiway 33/1 dr15 beaten 4,1/2/ last year as a 3yo Bubble Gift 66/1 dr 13 beaten 5,1/2L last year (finishing well) as a 3yo Conclusion. Already backed Alpinista at 20/1 & 16/1 going to cross first 4 in forecasts and Tricasts best ew is probably mendocino (beat torquasor lto and it didnt look a fluke to me)

309 sali mayz 66/1 bet365

now one of the trickiest g1 of the year, and a great one to solve. in the past the winner was always 1st or fav in the prix niel or the vermaille (2022 sweet lady won the fav was tuesday) (trials). The prices on the day will be affected by the Japanese runner they always distort the prices due to the amount of money the Japanese bet on them a good example was deep inpact who ended up fav many years ago that year the prix niel was won by rail link in an incredible time and was available on arc day at 20/1 but ended up the 8/1 winner (2022 winner of the prix niel was simca mille. fav was japans, do deuce.) One other important pointer if the ground comes up heavy German breeding kicks in as happend last year, alpinista has the beating of last years winner torquator tasso on all german form, german bred winners are not uncommon see danedream and waldgeist. these are always my starting thoughts for the arc before i even bother looking at the final runners. one other point, A Fabre is a genious never underestimate any of his runners.

245 nott Willoughby Bay 12/1 betvictor

355 sedge Kajaki 28/1 betvictor

358 hamilton Gordonstoun 20/1 bet365

UPDATE.

very disappointing

415 curr yaxeni 16/1 pp

Granada runing in the 200 cologne price is 5/2 bet365 which is very fair price this shiergan 2yo won well FTO and looked a good prospect for a trainer in good form.

got very lucky with novel legend tried get on in running 7/1, price changed 8/1, price changed 10/1, price changed 9/1 thats when it accepted my bet