harry_rag

10 points on Salah at 2.94

Bet 27.6: 15 points on neither team to win to nil in Wales v Ireland at 1/80 with 365

A few antepost bets that like to varying degress. >2.5 red cards shown at 5/4 with Lads: Odds against about a line that is odds on generally and I tend to agree it should be. RP think we could see more yellow cards this year given the number of Southern Hemisphere ref's appointed and I think that should be enough for us to get at least one more than the 2 that covered my bet on >1.5 last year. Ireland to win the Grand Slam at 3/1 with 888: Drifted a bit after I took it, tricky opening fixture away to Wales. Not convinced it was the best decision but I anticipated the price shortening along with the their outright price. Whatever; the money (not much) is down so might as well post it. Italy to win >0.5 games at 4/1 with Fred and not to finish bottom at 7/2 with Hills: Read an article about Italy's improved form following their victory over Wales last year, their improvement at U20 level and how well they tend to do in the 6N when it's a World Cup year. It convinced me at the time but enthusiasm for the bets has waned. Posted for posterity but my strongest fancy here is the red cards bet.

Bet 26.5: 10 points on >0.5 goals in Everton v Arsenal at evens with Hills

10 points on Dike (West Brom) at 2/1 with 365

Transfermarket.co.uk is my preferred site for proper analysis (by season/competition etc.). I usually use Soccerbase or Soccerway to find out who the ref is then search for the ref on there. (I suspect if I worked out how to use the site better I could find the fixture and ref appointment on there!)

Bet 25.4: 15 points on Scotland U20 to trail at any time v England U20 at 1/50 with 365

Bristol City 0 Asian handicap cards v Preston, 1pt at 4-5 with 365.

10 points on Vlahovic (Juventus) at 3.05

Might as well give it a dedicated thread even if the spread on likely contributors is set at around 2.5-2.8! Here's the Rugby Vision rankings which I tend to have a look at each year. They're very much pro Ireland at the expense of France. The obvious bets flagged if you give any credence to the ratings are Ireland at 13/10 (was 7/5 earlier in the week) and Ireland GS at 3/1. No doubt be some further ramblings and thoughts on some of the games. Champion Grand Slam Triple Crown Last Ireland 62.0% 32.0% 40.9% <0.1% England 18.8% 5.8% 9.3% 0.5% France 11.9% 3.5% <0.1% 0.3% Scotland 5.0% 0.9% 5.2% 1.5% Wales 2.3% 0.6% 2.6% 9.2% Italy <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 88.7%

The RP are very much on your wavelengths with their outright tips being Clayton to win and Price not to make the play-offs. Given the consensus I’m persuaded to follow. On Clayton e/w at 11/1 with Lads (using boost) or Uni and Price not to make the play-offs at 13/10 with Hills. I suppose I might as well take the 31p Paddy will allow me on Price finishing bottom as well!

10 points on Belotti (Roma) at 9/4 Sky Bet

Bet 24.3: 15 points on 1+ card for each team in Maritimo v Porto at 1/20 with Sky Bet Not the perfect scenario of 2 big teams going head to head but a bookings quote of 64-68 and ref who looks "mad for it" will do for me.

Bet 23.2: 15 points on RB Leipzig to score v Hoffenheim at 1/12 with Lads

No further bets so as you were for month end. As stated above, there's been significant drop in the overall ROI for these selections so I'm hoping to see a big correction next month! My overall ROI for all anytime bets this month was 13.55% with the "B" system and all non-system bets both coming in at around 32% so I'll be interested to see how that develops and whether or not I can stay in the black overall. Tale of the tape in simple terms is that bets at 3/1 plus have been making the profits but that's to be expected when the bets posted in here have done so badly (they are at the shorter end of the price range). There's a paid tipster in the anytime market who has a decent record so I'll be tracking myself against him out of interest. He managed an ROI of 25.7% from 113 bets this month. I'm also comparing notes with someone I know who has been doing much better than me over the last few months and who takes a much simpler approach to his bet selection. I'm awaiting his month end figures but he's hit his first losing month since September. Basically trying to stay out of the red by being more selective this year and it'll be good to have a couple of other high volume punters in this market to benchmark myself against.