harry_rag

Just the one yellow card so the bet wins comfortably. 16 winners and 3 pushes from 28 bets, 6.61 points up with an ROI of 24.48% to advised stakes 5.61 points up with an ROI of 20.03% to level stakes. Internationals next weekend so may well be a week off for Kev.

For tomorrow, under 5 Asian total cards Real Madrid v Celta Vigo, 1pt at 1.9 with 365.

An enjoyable round if fairly dismal from a betting perspective. Scotland/Wales - continued the theme of correctly calling the outcome without backing it, lost 7 points on the hotshots buy (1 try short of a profit) and no joy with the smaller "interest" bets. England/Italy - small profit courtesy of the odds against try related bets winning to more than cover the losses on the handicap bets. Ireland/France - total wipeout and that late French try rubbed salt in the wound. Ireland by 1-12 and >1.5 France tries would have both landed but I favoured 1-10 and both teams to score a try in each half for the bigger prices. Still, that sell of kicking metres is looking pretty good with one set of fixtures to go.

Fulham only "lost" 6-5 on corners so 2 to spare on the handicap. 15 winners and 3 pushes from 27 bets, 5.71 points up with an ROI of 21.96% to advised stakes 4.71 points up with an ROI of 17.44% to level stakes.

No time for rationale but, for posterity, I'm on these in Ireland/France: Stander anytime at 7/2 (boosted) with Lads Murray anytime at 4.2 on BF Both teams to score a try in each half at 3/1 with Hills Ireland to win by 1-10 points at 5/2 with Betway

England/Italy: Hitching my wagon firmly to the "Italy underestimated by the markets" wagon here! Italy +33 at evens with Lads Italy +16 1st half handicap at 10/11 with Lads Each team to score 1+ tries in each half at 17/10 Hills >1.5 Italy tries at 5/4 Skybet

Scotland/Wales: I think Wales will win this, probably cover the -4 handicap and probably by 1-12 points but none of the prices incline me to bet on those outcomes and I have enough interest in the result from a couple of antepost bets (the intentional one on Wales outright at 13/2 and an accidental one on no grand slam winner at 8/11). My main bets are a buy of both teams' hotshots, Scotland's at 24 with SX (Kinghorn, Graham, Hogg and Seymour) and Wales' at 33 with SPIN (G.Davies, Adams, North, Williams). Will take 3 or more tries from those 8 players for a profit but worth chancing, for me, at those prices. A few fun/mug/interest bets that caught me eye, all staked accordingly. North to score a try in both halves at 14/1 Hills, both teams to score 2+ tries in each half at 50/1 PP, North and Adams to score 3+ tries between them at 9/1 Skybet and North to score a try/Wales to win at 7/2 Skybet.

This week’s selection is Fulham +3.5 Asian handicap corners v Leicester, 1pt at 1.875 with 365.

Just the 2 yellow cards so the bet wins, even if you had to take the amended line. 14 winners and 3 pushes from 26 bets, 4.83 points up with an ROI of 19.34% to advised stakes 3.83 points up with an ROI of 14.75% to level stakes.

If you still want to follow I’d say the best options now are 5/6 for <50 points with Paddy or 11/10 <4.5 cards with 888.

For tomorrow, under five Asian total cards in Hertha Berlin v Mainz, 1pt at 1.9 with 365. Line has moved to 4.5 so not sure if that price was even available when the tip was made available (usually 8:00).

I have to ask though, why the hell would you do this, it makes no sense whatsoever? Backing 3 outcomes in the same game makes no sense, especially with a single firm. Instead of doing your 9 accas at 25p, why not just stick the whole 2.25 on the other 6 or 7 selections? I'd be interested in any valid argument for doing it the other way. Covering 2 of the 3 outcomes I could understand but not all 3.

No joy this week; only 3 cards but, unfortunately, one of them was red. 13 winners and 3 pushes from 25 bets, 3.93 points up with an ROI of 16.39% to advised stakes 2.93 points up with an ROI of 11.74% to level stakes.

2 out of 3 for a return that exactly doubled my money. Had France not successfully chased their bonus point try I'd have got 6 times as much back! Can't really grumble though as Scotland only got back to within 10 points late on and France had 4 tries rules out by the TMO. Apart from that, a poor week's punting on some enjoyable games. The Wales hotshots showed a 2 point profit but the rest of the bets lost.

No joy there. Bought Wales hotshots at 23 with SPIN (G.Davies, Adams, North, L.Williams) and matched on Daly at 4.7 and Slade at 5.6.