harry_rag

Just the Wood goal to minimise the losses. Penalty miss didn't help the overs bet. A couple of first half yellows were also a false dawn for the bookings.

Had a peruse of this game and gone a bit contrarian on the goals front! I've seen >2.5 tipped and have been persuaded in that direction. Whilst the prospects of an edgy, low scoring affair are obvious enough, I think they may have been over-factored into the prices. >2.5 goals at 2.56 and >3.5 goals at 4/1 Wood to score anytime at 12 and buy Nolan's goal minutes at 9 50+ bookings points at 15/8 and 60+ at 7/2 with Skybet, 20+ for each team at 15/8 and 30+ each at 7/1 (also Skybet) and a red card shown at 6.4 Wood's a defender who scores a few goals and, in my opinion, doesn't deserve to be double figure odds today. I've seen Nolan tipped elsewhere for first goalscorer and seems to have been backed as the advised price was gone. I have to agree he's a decent prospect for a scorer bet today and the buy at 9 edges the fixed odds options for me. Bookings looked a little low at 40 to buy in such a momentous game and the fixed odds prices seemed to offer slightly better value. I've spread my bets around a bit as not been allowed as much as I'd like on any one market. Ref Jones not that prolific but his average rises for League games below Championship level.

Only Gigot yesterday so 2 winners since the last update. 67 winners from 239 bets (28.03%), -6.18 points with an ROI of -2.59%.

That's better. 2 tries for a profit of 22 x stake. Shame it was only 2 after a good early start. 2270 points risked and 1964 returned, -306 points with an ROI of -13.48%

Catalans v Leeds: Gigot at 2/1 (B3) and Keinhorst at 9/4 (B2), both with Lads

Stormers v Lions: Van Rensburg (Lions) at 2/1 with 365 (B2)

Bulls v Brumbies: Gelant at 11/10 with 365 or Sportingbet (C1)

Just Delguy at evens last night. Racing 92 v Castres: Vakatawa at 4.9 on BF (B3) and Smith at 4.9 on BF (B3)

Going to start using "TWW" as an ironic acronym for "that went well". Only one Lyon try and not from one of the shots. 2214 points risked and 1864 returned, -350 points with an ROI of -15.81% For today's entertainment, another hotshots buy. Racing 92 v Castres: Buying Racing hotshots for 2 points at 28 with SPIN (Imhoff, Vakatawa, Thomas, Dupichot) 32 to buy elsewhere which is closer to my valuation.

Warrington v Hull: Connor to score at 17/4 with Lads (B2) - Fine at 4/1 without price boost.

Montpellier v Lyon: Buy Lyon hotshots for 2.5 points at 16 with SX (Palisson, Regard, Mignot, Arnold) You'd have to pay 20 elsewhere and there's no way I can get these 4 to be worth as little as 16. More than acceptable risk/reward here with 1 try showing an 9 point gain. Change of approach in the staking here, I'm posting to stakes that match my real world actual stakes on the bets. (So far they've almost all been staked as 1 point with the occasional 2 pointer on a low risk bets or 10 points on total goals to reflect the lower volatility in that market). From now on, the stake reflects my actual bet, as simple as that.

Jaguares v Sharks: Delguy at evens with BF Sports (B1) and Orlando at 10/3 with Sky (C3) don't expect the latter to last long.

2 winners since the last update (Jones-Bishop and Connor). 65 winners from 230 bets (28.26%), -2.18 points with an ROI of -0.95%.

No joy with the last bet. 2174 points risked and 1864 returned, -310 points with an ROI of -14.26%

Castleford v St Helens: Foster at 5/1 with 365 (B1)