harry_rag

No more cards shown so both bets win. 5 winners from 10 bets, +5.2 points with an ROI of 65%%. To level stakes, +5.45 points with an ROI of 54.5%.

An early card for England lands one half of the split stakes double. The other is currently in as England have been shown both yellow cards thus far. Hopefully they end up with the last card one way or another. The fact they're only drawing at the break, and the manager having made 10 changes to the starting line-up, should work in my favour,

Unlucky. I'm going early this week, with another of my split stakes attempts. Bets 9 and 10 are 1 point each on England women to be shown the 1st card v Portugal at 4/1 and the last card at 16/5, both with either PP or BF Going a full point each rather than split this time because I'm confident in the prices offering value. I'd make no card being shown around 13/1 which is broadly in line with the market. Portugal should clearly be favourites to receive the first, last or any given card, perhaps around an 8/11 shot. Skybet go just 1/2 which is too short for me but generous compared to Paddy's 1/6. For me, England should be 2/1 (each) at most to receive the first card or the last card so you can see why the above prices appeal (Skybet going just 13/8). Put another way, if you dutch the 2 prices you're getting odds against about something I think should be no more than 1/2.

Good luck, won't be following as in to 6/5 now! 17/11 best elsewhere, hopefully they won't palp the 23/10. Shouldn't do but a bit extreme to go from a clear best 23/10 to a clear worst 6/5. PP Still showing the 23/10 on Oddschecker but was never still going to be available with them and slashed with BF. Hope it lands and kick starts another good run for you.

No winners from Sunday's pair of bets. 3 winners from 8 bets, -2 points with an ROI of -33.33%. To level stakes, -1.75 points with an ROI of -21,88%.

No joy for me either. One card in the first half of each game, very early on in the case of the earlier kick off. Full update to follow.

Have had bets on each of Jones-Bishop and Caton-Brown anytime tryscorers for Wakefield v St Helens in the game about to kick off. 6/5 Skybet and 5/4 Lads respectively. Both maybe value at shade over evens, quite confident that at least one of them scores a try today.

Bets 7 and 8 are 0.5 points each on the following in the Women's Euro games later: Scotland v Portugal - 2 or 3 cards shown in the 1st half at 9/2 with Hills England v Spain - 2 or 3 cards shown in the 1st half at 5/1 with Hills Just one would show a profit to the stakes. Has happened in 4 out of the 14 games so far but in 3 out of 6 of the 2nd round of group games. The ref handling the latter game is one of the 4 to have done it already. There will be more confident selections to come but this is strong enough for me to post as I'm happy the prices underestimate the chance of 2 or 3 cards being required before the break in at least one of these games. (Obviously 4 or more would be a galling way to lose but the 4 instances so far have all seen exactly 2 cards.)

Will be no bets from me more weeks than not as I'm either not betting on League or it's too last minute to post. Currently taking it relatively easy pending the start of the new domestic season (in England; I appreciate Scotland is underway already). Will post if I have a worthwhile bet and time allows but, as I say, that will be the exception rather than the rule.

I'm not going to second guess you so have don the same. Cheers for that one. If it's the wrong call I hope it's really wrong as I've still got the prospect of the double payout if he did go on to win the whole thing!

Good luck. It's been a no bet week for me but it's a marathon not a sprint.

Yes, that seems to have worked. Sometimes a little friendly grumpiness pays dividends!

Followed at the same price with Star Spreads. They will double the profit on any FP sells if you sell the winner. Not that likely in this case perhaps but still an offer to have on your side if the price can't be bettered.

Oh well, the only good thing about that was it doesn't count for the purposes of this thread. The bet really needed Cilic to have a much better match but it just wasn't to be. I believe he was 4/6 to win a set but he certainly didn't play to anything like the sort of standard required to justify such a price. Apologies if anyone had the misfortune to follow.

I've messed up here in terms of leaving it too late to post the selection to meet the commitment to minimum 1 hour notice that I gave at the outset. I'd assumed the final started at 2:00 but was misled by Spreadex showing it as 3:00! Having flagged the intended bet I'll post it for anyone who's interested but it won't count as an official selection, win or lose, unless the match doesn't start for at least an hour after the time of the post. Cilic v Federer: 1 point on >29.5 aces in the match at 23/20 with 888 Assuming the spreads are about right and that the poisson distribution is of some relevance to aces in tennis matches, this should be well odds on. Higher lines are indeed odds on elsewhere, though arguably still a bit too big.