harry_rag

Polish ref Marciniak is in charge tonight. To simplify things he "likes a pen" and is nothing exceptional in terms of cards. I was a bit surprised at the low spread quotes for tonight's game (you can buy bookings at 48 when I was expecting low to mid 50s) and, despite low totals in his 4 games this season, I still think there's some upside when you consider his overall stats in UEFA competitions. I've backed a penalty taken at 12/5 with Hills and bought penalty goal minutes at 14 with SPIN. I've also backed >40 booking points at 10/11 with PP.

A bet in both Spanish 2nd tier games tonight. Girona v Almeria: 25 points on 4-6 cards shown at 11/10 with Hills Elche v Zaragoza: 25 points on 4-6 cards shown at 11/10 with Hills

Nine yellows so not even close last night.

Oh well, barring the fact that Atalanta at least scored one goal to minimise the loss on the buy of their goal rush, that went as bad as it could have gone.

Cheers, yeah I noticed both goals this season were pens but none last season. I just thought that 7/2 looked big compared to his goal minutes on the spreads and his stats supported the idea that it might be a reasonable punt.

Glad to say he's taking pens this season!

Motherwell v Livingston: Dyke at 7/2 anytime with PP. SX make him the most likely scorer in the game and I just don't think he should be that big a price. Has 10 in 27 SPL games.

Also like the prospects of an assist from Gomez (16 in Serie A more than double the next best). 7/2 with PP for what I could get on and bought his assist minutes at 13 with SX.

I'm swayed by the arguments that Atalanta are underrated tonight and have split my stake across the following bets: Atalanta to qualify at 2.68 on BF Atalanta to score >1.5 goals at 6/4 with 888 (and widely available) Buy Atalanta goal rush at 15 with SPIN (0 for no goals, 10 for one then 20, 33, 50, 70 and 100 up to 6+ goals) I also think (as per post in systems and strategy) that this is a game where 4-6 cards shown is more likely than not so have backed that at 21/20 with Hills.

Atalanta v PSG: 25 points on 4-6 cards shown at 21/20 with Hills

I hadn't thought about it previously but decided to have a go at pricing it up for myself (very rough and ready). Inter and Man U are shorter than I'd make them and Sevilla and Shakhtar a bit longer. I've got Sevilla v Man U as a coin toss so, at the prices on offer, Sevilla to win or qualify seems like a reasonable call. I had Shakhtar at around 7/1 outright and they're on offer at a couple of points more than that though I can't say I fancy them. They can score but also concede a fair few and Inter seem to have improved defensively. I can see Inter progressing 3-1 in that tie, e.g. win and btts. I'd see the other game as an unders/btts "no" type game. All very top of the head though.

2 winners yesterday, 4 cards in each game. Although I did bet them both to the same stake I'm going to record the above bet as 24 points staked for consistency with the rest of the thread (bets staked to return 50 points).

2 winners enough for a modest profit despite the maximum loss on the spread bet.

One more for today. Spezia v Chievo: 25 points on 4-6 cards shown at 23/20 with Hills

Wolves v Sevilla. Bought cross corners at 22 with SX (Wolves corners x Sevilla corners). A bit of a gut feel bet but can see Sevilla gaining a decent number and, depending on how the game pans out, a good chance the total can cross that line. Ocampos anytime 3/1 and 2 or more 24/1 with 888. Standout prices for Sevilla's main goal getter. Yet to manage a brace so far this season but worth a punt at double the next best price on offer. Reguilon anytime 18/1 with the same firm. Young attacking fullback linked with Chelsea. Has three goals post-lockdown, 2 in the league and one against Roma. Goal mins maybe cheap at 3 with SPIN but think I'll stick to anytime. Shakhtar v Basel. 4-6 cards shown at 21/20 with Hills (as posted in systems and strategy). A value bet for me in simple "odds against about an odds on shot" sense.