harry_rag

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harry_rag last won the day on October 27 2017

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About harry_rag

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  1. The Daily Spread

    France U19 v Ukraine U19: Buy bookings for 2.5 points at 34 with SX Had my attention drawn to this game by someone tipping Ukraine most bookings at evens on the basis of them getting 2 or 3 yellows in their recent games whilst ref Dallas hasn't tended to show cards to France U19 when he's officiated their games. All fair enough but Ukraine's opponents have attracted a fair few cards in those recent games and, with the price to buy as high as 43 elsewhere, I'm happy to buy at 34 and see what happens.
  2. World Cup Specials

    This made up at 7 in the end! Glad I didn't go with my initial though on buying it, shame I didn't have more conviction in my eventual belief that it was a sell, if anything,
  3. Final Predictions > Jul 15th

    Any thoughts on the decision for the first goal being given as an own goal rather than being awarded to Griezmann? It seems fair from the perspective that Griezmann intended it as a ball into the box rather than a shot on goal but still seems to breach the general principle that a goal is usually credited to the attacking player if it was "on target". Any shot on target, how ever weak or clearly going to be saved or blocked, will be awarded to the attacking player if it takes a deflection off a defender, however "wicked" the deflection may be, the key point being that it was a shot and was on target. Any free kick that is lofted into the box and ends up sailing or bouncing over everyone and goes in the net without being touched will be credited as a goal for the player who took it, as would Griezmann's if it had bypassed everyone. So, is the only reason this was classed as an o.g. the reasonable assumption that the free kick was intended as a cross rather than a shot on goal? I have no vested interest in this, it's just got me thinking.
  4. World Cup Comp - Final Table

    Well done to the winners and thanks for taking the time and trouble to run this. Pleasantly surprised to manage a top 25 finish!
  5. The Daily Spread

    Escaped a card (perhaps fortunately) so a loss of 16 x stake. 2806.25 points risked and 2672.5 returned, -133.75 points with an ROI of -4.78%
  6. The Daily Spread

    France/Croatia: Buy Strinic card minutes for 1.5 points at 16 with SX Going with this for today. See World Cup final predictions thread for rationale. Have since seen the bet on him to be carded tipped by another respected source (who specialises in card betting).
  7. Final Predictions > Jul 15th

    Strinic card minutes up to 19 now. I've had a small bet on Griezmann to score in the 1st 10 minutes at 33/1 with PP That price feels a little big and gives you a decent interest in France's early attacks. SPIN go 4-6 for a special that awards 100 points if he scores in the 1st 10 minutes which effectively gives you the option of backing the eventuality at 33/1 or laying at 24/1. Maybe a mug bet but at least there's clear value to be had one way or another and I'm not into laying 24/1 shots!
  8. The Daily Spread

    Just 8 points for a "non-runner" so a loss of 39 x stake. 2782.25 points risked and 2672.5 returned, -109.75 points with an ROI of -3.94%
  9. Final Predictions > Jul 15th

    I've followed on Strinic card minutes at 16. As high as 17-21 with SPIN. Having read the RP preview it looks a reasonable bet though have to hope he doesn't just cop for an early yellow!
  10. The Daily Spread

    Widnes v Hull KR: Buy Widnes hotshots for 1 point at 47 with SPIN (Hanbury, Marsh, Inu, Mellor) Price looks wrong to me and these 4 should be good for 2 or more tries between them. That said, the stats aren't hugely supportive of the bet but that's reflected in the staking (a cautious 1 point rather than the usual 2). Given today's opponents I wouldn't be letting anyone buy at less than 50 (SX go 47-51).
  11. The Daily Spread

    3 hotshots tries so a profit of 17 x stake. 2735.25 points risked and 2664.5 returned, -70.75 points with an ROI of -2.59%
  12. The Daily Spread

    Forgot to mention the players; (Barba, Percival, Grace, Makinson)
  13. The Daily Spread

    Hull v St Helens: Buy St Helens hotshots for 1 point at 58 with SPIN SX (who have also priced up player try minutes) are 6 points higher. Based on those player try minutes prices you wouldn't expect a hotshots price of less than 63. I've looked at a sample of 10 recent St Helens games and at least one of those players has scored in every game. The average across all 10 games is 72.5 points, rising to 87.5 if you only look at the 6 games where all 4 players featured (when the minimum return has been 50 points for 2 tries) Anything could happen including the maximum loss for no tries but I'm happy that the price is wrong and should be bought.
  14. Outside Chance (2018)

    Leeds v Wakefield: Moon at 2/1 Lads (B2)
  15. Outside Chance (2018)

    0 from 7 since the last update. 75 winners from 271 bets (27.68%), -14.15 points with an ROI of -5.22%.