harry_rag

Under 12 Asian total corners Dundee v Hibernian, 1pt at 9-10 with 365.

The thing is, it certainly could be entirely random over such a small sample, or (most likely) down to a combination of how the team has played but with a considerable element of luck thrown in. Making a judgement that places the right value on what the stats are telling you without overvaluing them (i.e. filtering out the luck) is the hard part. Most people underestimate the extent that luck plays in the outcome of football matches. There's a saying that an infinite number of monkeys bashing away at typewriters would eventually produce the complete works of Shakespeare. Are football teams most like actors following a script or monkeys hammering a typewriter? Probably a bit of both but more of the latter than most people allow for. So go for it but question what the stats are telling you.

Will follow with interest, not sure I understand the comments re %s but perhaps you can clarify when posting your first selection(s).

Another winner this week, with Bradford comfortably gaining most corners. 3 winners from 5 bets, 0.8 points up with an ROI of 16% All bets advised to 1 point so far so no difference between advised and level stakes as yet.

Back on the horse (or pitch, to be precise). Bradford +0.5 Asian handicap corners v Charlton, 1pt at 1.95 with 365.

Jets at Lions: 1.5 points Johnson 4/1 PP and 2 points Powell 11/4 365

0/5 and -7.5 points for me so not exactly off to a flyer!

0/3 and -4.5 points on the TD scorers so far. 2 in the 49ers/Vikings game. 2 points Murray at 5/2 with 888 and 1 point Cousins at 7/1 with Hills (and others).

3 losers since the last update with losses of 36, 15 and 39 x stake. 3616.75 points risked and 3317.5 returned, -299.25 points with an ROI of -8.27% 39 winners from 118 bets (33.05%)

Another DC success.

Ospreys v Cheetahs: Buy Ospreys hotshots for 1.5 points at 64 with SPIN (T Williams, S Williams, North, D Evans) I get 78 based on try minutes mid points so that's an unusual edge. North capable of a hat trick on his own so hopefully this goes easily over the spread. A bit overdue for an update, will bring things up to date tomorrow.

Nothing this week, as usual for International breaks.

I'll be weighing in with some dubious TD scorer bets! I know next to nothing about the sport but that's never stopped me having a bash at tryscorers in League and Union. Let's see how my approach works over the season. 100 point bank, I'll update after each week's action. For the opening game between Atlanta and Philadelphia: 2 points Ertz at 13/8 with 365 1.5 points Agholor at 3.2 on BF (2/1 in places is ok) 1 point Ridley at 17/4 with SX (Spreadex) My main resources (used in this order) are a comparison between the spreads and fixed odds to find any "prices of interest", a look at the players' stats and a read of the team news/fantasy previews.

Something like this perhaps (my understanding of how things stand so far, to 1 point level stakes)? 2 winners from 5 selections, +2.44 points with an ROI of 48.8% 2 of the losing selections have drawn so there may be scope for following via draw no bet or double chance.

Keep ‘em coming.