harry_rag

Got my toe burned!

Without looking at the racecard I’d say he’s only looking at horses drawn 1-10 and eliminating any not in the 1st 7 in the betting, not in the top 12 in terms of weight and any that haven’t run in the last 25 days.

Clermont v Lille: 15 points on Weah to score at 10/3 with Lads Could be decent in the absence of Yilmaz. Yet to score this season but did ok in his limited starts last season. I'd say should be a shade under 3s rather than slightly over.

One more, Southampton v Leeds: 15 points on Rodrigo at 10/3 with Uni. Also had 5 points on him and Hwang in a double at 19/1.

As it appears to be a day when muggy bets can win, I've dipped my toe cautiously back into the anytime goalscorer market. Villa v Wolves: 15 points on Hee-chan Hwang to score at 19/5 with Uni. Just too big for me in the absence of main man Jimenez.

Last bet lost. Same bet, stake and odds in the Levante v Getafe game.

Watford v Liverpool: 10 points on Liverpool to win and both Salah and Mane to have over 1 shot on target at 5/1 Hills. A double "your odds" price, seems reasonable to me and will do for an interest in proceedings.

Just the one bet, 58 points profit from the rugby hotshots sell. 2202.29 points up overall.

Hopefully this will clarify it to some extent. I sold Ulster hotshots (the 4 named players) at 58 in a bet where each try scored by any of those players is worth 25 points. Ulster scored 4 tries but, fortunately for me, none were scored by any of the hotshots so the bet made up at 0 and I won 58 x my stake. Had all 4 tries been scored by any of the hotshots the make up would have been 100 (4 x 25) and I'd have lost 42 x my stake (100 - the sell price of 58). Imagine my stake was £1 per point, the bet works like this. The bookie gives me £58 which I can keep if the players fail to score any tries (as was the case on this occasion). For every try one of the players scores I have to give the bookie £25 back. 1 try means I still win £33 and 2 means I still win £8. 3 tries = 75 points so I lose £17, 4 tries and I lose £42 as stated above. And so on. On a bad night, the hotshots might score 8 tries between them for a total of 200 points, costing me £142. Hopefully that makes it all perfectly clear! The difference to fixed odds betting (where you typically either lose x or win y) is that the more right you are, the more you win and the more wrong you are, the more you lose.

No problem @four-leaf but can I just check if you know much about spread betting first? That is, do you have a reasonable understanding of spread betting but aren’t sure how these bets work or you don’t really know much about spread betting?

Scnuthorpe +3 Asian handicap corners v Forest Green, 1pt at 1.95 with 365.

Leicester 1 3.4 Norwich 1 3.6 Leeds 2 3.0 5 point treble

Last 2 bets made up at 50 for a 2 point profit and 0 for 46 points. One that appeals tonight. Ulster v Lions: Sell Ulster hotshots for 1 point at 58 with SPIN (Will Addison, Craig Gilroy, Ethan McIlroy, Nathan Doak) Insert the usual waffle about why I like the bet; essentially I'm getting a value more like 47. Chance to sell something at >2 tries that seems to be worth just under that mark (hotshots awards 25 points per try scored by the named players).

-20 points from the losing fixed odds card bet, +117 points from the 4 winning bookings sells, +39.74 points from the 2 winning NFL bets (went 2/3). Total return +136.74 points. 2144.29 points up overall.

You'd have got long odds on all 4 games going under the spread (perhaps going on 14/1). Total bookings make up was 110 for a profit of 117 points. 20 points lost on the fixed odds bet as just the one card in that game.