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harry_rag last won the day on November 24 2019

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About harry_rag

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  1. 2 losers for a 28 point loss since the last update. 6 winners from 20 bets (30%). 348 points returns 313.4 for a loss of 34.6 points with an ROI of -9.94%.
  2. Sunderland win the game 1-0 but a comfortable 11-6 for the hosts on corners. Another win albeit one where anyone would have struggled to get on at the quoted odds. 12 winners and 2 pushes from 20 bets, 5.95 points up with an ROI of 32.16% to advised stakes, 7.2 points up with an ROI of 36% to level stakes.
  3. Had a few weeks off the TD scorer betting but taken a look at tonight's games. One bet for me. Tennessee at Kansas: 12 points on Jonnu Smith TD at 7/2 Hills I share the prevailing view that he should be slightly less than 3/1 rather than a half point more.
  4. Time to tentatively remount the value horse! Tennessee at Kansas: 12 points on Jonnu Smith TD at 7/2 Hills I share the prevailing view that he should be slightly less than 3/1 rather than a half point more.
  5. As the stars have aligned for those three teams all to be at home tomorrow, I couldn't resist sticking them in a trixie! 21/10, 13/8 and 15/8 with Betway.
  6. Checked early this week and looks like another where you’ll need to be quick! Milton Keynes Dons most corners taken v Sunderland, 0.5pt at 7-4 with Sky Bet. Cut to 13/8 according to OC but only 6/4 when I placed my bet. The +1 handicap at 11/10 would seem fair as well.
  7. The game finished 0-0 but it was 7-5 for Tranmere on corners. 11 winners and 2 pushes from 19 bets, 5.075 points up with an ROI of 28.19% to advised stakes, 5.45 points up with an ROI of 28.68% to level stakes.
  8. Disappointing to have a winner but no money on due to missing the price. Update to follow as usual.
  9. This week's selection is Tranmere most corners taken v Southend, 0.5pt at 7-4 Sky Bet. Unlike last week, price not held and only 11/10 now (6/5 with 365). Looking like a swerve for me unless anyone spots a better price elsewhere as Kev pitches this around 6/4.
  10. I can't, I admit defeat, what with Benfica still to play their week 3 game while Celtic and Liverpool are already into week 6! I've got better things to do with my time, bettingwise and real lifewise! Some concluding thoughts for those of you avidly following my ramblings. Would these bets bets be profitable if backing singles? - Well, I make it that the 6 teams have played 57 home games this season and the bet would have landed in 26 of them, that's 45.61% implying "true" odds of 2.19. So on the basis that we seem to be getting better odds than that, it looks like it would have yielded a profit so far. I'd ditch Benfica (0 from 8 so far) and PSG (1 from 9) and Celtic are underwhelming (4 from 11) but Liverpool (8 from 11), Barca (7 from 9) and Juve (6 from 9) combine for 21 from 29 or 72.4%. You'd have obviously coined it backing those 3 teams till now but you know what they say about past performance being no guarantee... Would there have been any mileage in backing them in doubles? - Well, where there's a positive edge you multiply by backing doubles so let's assume so. I make it 22 winning doubles from a potential 135 if we'd backed them all. At assumed average odds of 2/1 we'd have got 198 points back for a 63 point profit. Would the staking plan mentioned in the opening post have outperformed level stakes? - I believe not. With Benfica still to play one more game, I've looked at the first 9 games for all the teams. The 22 winning doubles would have had the following stakes on them, 1 point x 12, 2 x 5, 5 x 1, 6 x 1 and 9 x 1. Should Benfica oblige at the 9th attempt that would add 2 more 9 point winners. So a maximum of 5 doubles with more than 2 points staked. The best double was Liverpool and Barca which landed 6 times. With the 2/1 odds assumption, that would have returned +255 points to level stakes but just +59 to the staking plan. Celtic and Juve obliged twice, once with 6 points on, and the return was +55 points from both staking approaches. PSG and Barca would have finally landed with 9 points staked beating level stakes by 45 points to 5. So the most likely outcome is that level stakes will convincingly outperform increasing ones. I can't see any reason to assume it's worth hoping you get 8 losers and land your winner on the 9th bet and let that dictate your staking plan. So there may be teams who will show a profit if backed at home to win/btts and Liverpool, Barca and Juve are worth putting on the shortlist. Back them in singles, maybe in doubles. But I can't recommend an increasing, loss recovery style approach to the staking. Phew, glad that's finally over!
  11. Nope, seems clear enough to me and doesn't impact me, mainly because I don't have an account with them! They reckon that 99.8% of their customers will be on the standard commission rate of 2% of net profit in each market so totally unaffected by this. The remaining 0.2% will be mainly high volume traders. Anyone looking to trade in that style will just have to factor that commission basis into their calculations before deciding whether a given trade is worth it or not.
  12. The game finished 2-2 but Coventry won the corner match up 7-2. 10 winners and 2 pushes from 18 bets, 4.2 points up with an ROI of 24% to advised stakes, 3.7 points up with an ROI of 20.56% to level stakes.
  13. On laptop/pc, if you hover over their username it should give you the message icon, or click on username to go to their profile and the same message icon will appear there. Only caveat being there are some criteria for "new" members before they are allowed to send private messages, so there's a possibility you might not be able to do it yet.