harry_rag

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harry_rag last won the day on May 22

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  1. In B2 we have Hannover v Dynamo Dresden with Grafe taking one of his occasional steps down to this level. Suffice to say he has a very low average in the top flight and just a low average at the lower level. These are my bets with due regard to his top flight stats and the 29 games over 4 seasons at tonight's level. <40 points 2/1 Sky Bet (landed in 15 of those 29 games) <50 points evens Skybet (landed in 23 of those 29 games) 4-6 cards shown 6/5 Hills (landed in 14 of those 29 games, landed in 50% or more of his games in 3 out of the 4 seasons) Dutching the <50 and 4-6 cards bets would have been profitable in all 29 of the games, both bets obliging on 8 occasions and one of them in the other 21.
  2. Werder Bremen v E Frankfurt tonight, reffed by Ittrich. Gone for these bets, supporting stats in brackets. Red card shown at 7/2 Hills (shown 8 in 7 of 25 games over the last 3 seasons) 4-6 cards shown at 11/10 Hills 9 (done so in 14 of those 25 games) >40 booking points at 11/10 PP (landed in 13 of the 25; 8 out of 12 this season and last, spreads pitched around the 50 mark) Penalty taken at 5/2 888 (10 awarded in 9 of those 25 games)
  3. Check out the "other European leagues" board, you can start a thread for the competition in question if there isn't already one there. https://forum.punterslounge.com/forum/195-other-european-leagues-football-predictions/
  4. Koln v RB Leipzig (reffed by Dingert). I think that 6/4 for >40 booking points is value with Lads (50+ is only 5/4 with Sky Bet and spreads are 44 to buy). Closer to a coin toss for me. Have also backed pen taken at 9/4 with 365 and Werner 3+ shots on target at 4/1 Sky Bet. Only allowed 50p on the latter!
  5. One more game to go in what has been a very good weekend so far. FC Minsk v Slutsk, reffed by Dolya. Looks like low cards and ok for pens. Was going to take 8/5 for <50 with PP but they moved the line to <60 at 4/5. No great loss given the amount I'd have been allowed on and still a reasonable price. I've just taken 12/5 for <4 cards shown. Dolya also a reasonable ref for pens although a bit inclined to award 2 or more in a game than spread them out. Given they hay I've been making in this market in this league, I've bought pen goal minutes at 14 with SPIN and had a saver (in case of a missed pen) on pen taken at 2/1 Hills. It's not the strongest game of the weekend for pens but I'd rather be on it than lose than swerve it and see it come in.
  6. In the later German game (Paderborn v Dortmund), I think the low bookings expectation could be a bit too low. Buy bookings at 38 with SX >40 points at 15/8 with Lads
  7. Last up it's the Brest derby with Rukh v Dinamo. (I've got a plethora of puns but I'm going to refrain from such behaviour today!) No real history to this one with the hosts pretty much being a brand new club so bookings quotes in the 60s may be a touch excessive, especially with Tsinkevich in charge. He hardly every breaks 60 and if he does it usually entails a red or two being flashed. He very much knows where the penalty spot is though! Sell bookings at 67 with SX Buy pen goal mins at 14 with SPIN Pen taken at 5/2 Sky bet
  8. Second game is BATE v Isloch with Shcherbakov at the helm. Strong shout for pens here, even at the prices. Wouldn't normally go this high/short but with BATE such strong favourites there's a higher than average goals expectation. Also think that there's some merit in the card bet but it's a "Monks" bet (nice price, shame about the stake). Buy pen goal mins at 21 with SPIN Pen take at 21/10 Sky Bet >50 booking points at 11/8 PP
  9. First game in Belarus is Energetik v Vitebsk reffed by Vasilevich. No appeal in pens based on his stats and available prices. Cards wise he strikes me as a "bet high or don't bet" proposition,with a marked recent upward trend, played out in this and the reserve league (albeit a small sample size). Taken the following, all with Hills. >65 points 29/20 >2 cards each team 19/10 >3 cards each team 13/2 There's currently a 59(!) point arb on bookings so you can buy at 61 or sell at 66. Somehow, neither proposition appeals in case he goes mad or has a quiet day. I'll therefore stick with the fixed odds bets.
  10. Dinamo Minsk v Shakhter and I'm risking low cards again (hoping the away team don't want to go too near the just released from quarantine hosts)! Sell at 62 with SPIN and back <60 at 7/5 PP. Can't get excited about the prospect of a spot kick in this game so I'm swerving it. You know what to do!
  11. And Chukhley anytime 5/1 and 2+ 66/1 Hills. Won on him before and price looks generous again.
  12. First up it's Belshina Nobruisk v Slavia Mozyr reffed by Krasnikov. As posted yesterday, I'm already on penalty scored at 3/1 and I've added a buy of pen goal mins at 13 with SPIN. I also think the bookings expectation is a bit high so have sold at 62 with SPIN and had the little allowed on <60 points at 13/10 PP.
  13. And one more; Steffen for Wolfsburg at 4.4 on BF. All bookies sub 3/1 and I'd agree with that consensus.
  14. Same game, anytime prices for Cordova look huge compared to the spreads (more than double what I'd expect). Even if that's not an accurate comparison I think there's value to be had. 13/2 anytime PP, 80/1 brace and 150/1 to score in both halves Lads.
  15. Only one game interests me based on ref stats in the 2:30 German games, Hertha v Augsburg with Jablonski in charge. Overall he's nothing special either way but the upward trend this season (mirrored in the few B2 games he's done) inclines me towards these bets: 4-6 cards shown at 11/8 Hills and >40 points at 7/5 Lads.