harry_rag

Final post on spreads, a round up of the other prices I've seen. Winning distances: 1310-1355 (aggregate of all winning margins) N Hemisphere/S Hemisphere: 120-140 Biggest winning margin: 91-96 Highest scoring game: 105-110 Lowest scoring game: 17-19.5 Fastest try (seconds): 75-78 Fastest drop goal (mins): 24-27 Fastest hat trick (mins): 33-36 Highest tries in a match: 15.5-16.5 Highest kicked pens in a match: 8.75-9.75 Highest shirts in a match: 212-220 Highest bookings points in a match: 48-53

Part 2! Unused subs: 49-53 (57 in 2015) Thoughts: I got a bit excited about this as a potential buy as I was piecing together what stats I could find until I realised that 2015 was the first time 8 subs were allowed. As it was a new development then I suspect teams will be more used to making use of 8 replacements so it's no bet for me. Bookings points: 625-630, ave = 371.25 (555 - 230 - 400 - 300) Yellow cards: 54-55, ave = 34 (53 - 18 - 35 - 30) Red cards: 3.5-4, ave = 1.25 (1 - 2 - 2 - 0) Thoughts: Total bookings points looks like a potential sell in the absence of anything that suggests an upsurge in cards this year. Red cards may be over-stated. I'll be mulling this one over before getting involved. Total drawn games: 0.75-0.9, ave = 0.75 (0 - 1 - 1 - 1) Thoughts: I've taken 6/5 for any drawn game with Lads. Not sure it should be odds against. Total games won to nil: 2.96-2.9, ave = 2 (1 - 2 - 4 - 1) I'm not quite comparing like with like here as Spreadex's market is actually based on 25 points per team scoring 0 so you could get 50 points in the event of a game ending 0-0 (not including abandoned games) but let's ignore that possibility. The Tote go 1/2 for any game to be won to nil and I think that's a good price but I can't quite bring myself to put the hefty bet on that would be required to make it worthwhile at the price. Tryless matches: 0.75-0.95, ave 2 (1 - 3 - 3 - 1) Thoughts: Not much downside but hardly an exciting prospect as a buy. Might keep any eye out for a fixed odds price that appeals. One last post to come in terms of spreads, just a list of the remaining markets I've seen but without stats or comments.

Ok, gird you loins, here comes my 3 part review of the current spread markets! Not sure it'll be of interest to many on here but I've done the work so might as well post it. Best price spread followed by average and stats from past 4 World Cups (most recent first) and brief thoughts on potential or actual bets. Total Points : 2550-2575, Ave = 2499.25 (2439 - 2245 - 2478 - 2835) Thoughts - share the consensus that this is a sell if anything but prefer to bet in other markets. Total Tries: 305-315, Ave = 290.25 (271 - 262 - 296 - 332) Thoughts - similar to points, again you're going back to 2003 to find the spread covered. Total Penalty Tries: 9-10, Ave = 5 (6 - 4) Thoughts - only got stats for 15 and 11, looks a bit high to me barring relevant rule changes but too low a price to be selling at. Total Tryscorer shirts: 3500-3550 Thoughts - no stats and no feel for this one, posted in case of interest. Total successful penalties: 182-192, Ave = 194.75 (224 - 171 - 178 - 206) Thoughts: No strong view on this one. Total successful conversions: 226-236, Ave = 207.5 (194 - 171 - 211 - 244) Thoughts: Already sold this at 230. If the spreads were right about the number of tries then you'd still need the success rate to be slightly higher than it's been over the last 4 tournaments (ave = 71.5%). Total drop goals: 7.5-7.25, Ave = 16.25 (8 - 20 - 14 - 23) Thoughts: already bought at 6.75. Even allowing for the downward trend I don't think there's much downside to a buy at that price. Currently a slight arb on this market. Total missed kicks: 122-132, Ave = 223.25 (152 - 235 - 222 - 284) Thoughts: already bought at 130. This looks way too low to me, even if some of those stats look iffy (apparently the success rate for drop goals is really low and it would appear teams were pinging them in from all over the shop prior to 2015). If you exclude drop goals you still get an average of 166.5. Total 50-ups: 440-460, Ave = 458.75 (328 - 386 - 474 - 647) Thoughts: Potential sell if you think the points lines are too high anyway. Treat the stats with caution as I've just compiled them from ESPN while furiously stabbing at a calculator! Total Ton-ups: 11, Ave = 21.75 (0 - 0 - 21 - 66) Thoughts: This was 17 to buy or sell when I first posted the early numbers so obviously seen sellers. There are better ways to bet on low points totals but a low risk buy if you do still fancy a blow out or two. There have been just the 3 games seeing >100 points, 1 in 07 and 2 in 03.

Overall total for the thread to date now looks like this. 70 winners from 259 bets (27.03%) 3636 points staked, 3604.45 points returned -31.55 points ROI -0.87% It might be beyond me to finish this 100 in profit but I can hopefully get the thread back into the black.

TD for Jones so 1 from 3 and 37 points returns 50.4. 12 winners from 59 bets (20.34%) 838.5 points staked, 619.45 points returned -219.05 points ROI -26.12%

5-1 to Ross C on corners. 5 winners from 6 bets, 3.75 points up with an ROI of 62.5% to advised and level stakes.

I’d just do it, as long as they’re not asking you to hold up a piece of paper saying something like “I admit that I’m a fraudster”! I’m guessing the intent is for you to prove to them that they’re dealing with the person whose ID they’ve been sent, so they get a picture that meets their stipulation that they can match against the ID. Not saying I’d like it if it happened to me or that it doesn’t seem a bit OTT but it’s the way it is and I doubt it would be seen as an unreasonable request from a legal or regulatory perspective. i also agree with the point about us never getting the full story with these sort of posts. I’m not asking you for more details but, to illustrate the point, all sorts of questions spring to my mind; is this a brand new account, are your winnings from an unusual betting pattern, is there something they regard as suspicious about the source of the funds, do they suspect you of inappropriate activity e.g. courtsiding. Unfotunately, I suspect that they very much can legally withhold your money until you comply with this request.

Atlanta/Philadelphia: 21 points on a Julio Jones TD at 7/5 with 888

Finally for today, I've had a look at the "overnight" game, Philadelphia at Atlanta: Julio Jones at 7/5 with 888 Buy Calvin Ridley TD minutes at 12 with SX I agree with the rest of the market that Jones is closer to an even money shot (odds on with several firms) and think that Ridley is too expensive at 16 with SPIN but cheap at 12.

New Orleans Saints at LA Rams: Jared Cook at 11/4 with Fred Just big enough to tempt me in.

Kansas at Oakland: 14 points on a Darren Waller TD at 11/4 and 2 points on the brace at 25/1 (boosted from 22/1), both with Lads

Continuing my tilt at the anytime TD market with a couple in the Minnesota/Green Bay game. Aaron Jones at 2.7 on BF (8/5 available with PP) Alexander Mattison at 7.6 on BF (7/1 available with the Sportsbook)

3 from 11 since the last update (Williams in the first half and a Sutcliffe try); 157 points returns 159.5. 11 winners from 56 bets (19.64%) 801.5 points staked, 569.05 points returned -232.45 points ROI -29%

Back in harness with Ross County –0.5 Asian handicap corners v St Mirren, 1pt at 1.95 with 365.

A few on tonight's Superleague games. Leeds v Warrington: 10 points on Sutcliffe to score a try at 9/2 with Fred Wakefield v London: 15 points on Miller to score a try at 5/2 with Lads Hull v St Helens: 20 points on Lomax to score a try at 13/8 with Lads and 12 points on Fages at 7/2 with the same firm Huddersfield v Catalans: 15 points on Frawley to score a try at 7/2 with Lads