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harry_rag last won the day on September 17

harry_rag had the most liked content!

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  1. Godden to score 15/8. Just shy of a system bet but stats good enough to get it over the line. Done a BB of >2.5 goals, btts and Godden >1 SoT at just over 4s.
  2. I didn't really know who he was previously but had a look a while back out of curiosity. Found his FAQ's quite interesting, covers off the issue of early prices and SP etc. https://www.attheraces.com/article/587968
  3. >2.5 goals, btts = yes and Godden >1 SoT at 4/1 Wouldn't put you off Godden to score but, at the slightly better price, I've swerved to 2+ SoT.
  4. Godwin at 3.35 and Smith at 2/1 in the other game. Evans apparently 10/3 with Vic; well out of line and worth a look if you've got an account. Down so far; will total up after tonight.
  5. Looks like it, you might have to bite the bullet and be the one to query it and get it sorted! Williams for the Rams the only potential play for me in that game, taken 2.3 on the exchange. A few to sift in the other game.
  6. Just the 3 midweek games in Northern Ireland. Your thoughts and bets would be most welcome!
  7. Midweek fixtures in Wales. Share any thoughts or bets with us here in respect of these games.
  8. 4 from 11 since the last update (Diaz, Batshuayi, Hofmann and Wilson) for a small loss. 80 winners from 215 bets so far for a profit of 383.39 points with an ROI of 17.1%. 18.6 points lost on 7 bets posted in error. Current "target" ROI based on overall sample is 14.6% (now based on 610 bets from 3427 selections). The new B system is off to a flyer (basically aligning the 2 systems by applying exactly the same criteria to the shorter price range). 22 bets so far and ROI of 45.05%. The ROI for the whole data sample is 11.88% from 271 bets and for this year it's 24.43% from 181 bets. It seems more volatile than the A system (no doubt due to fewer bets and bigger odds) so we'll see how it goes. I'm effectively only operating one system now but I'll carry on tracking them separately for the time being.
  9. Wins Bets Stake Return P/L ROI 2 8 £40.00 £74.25 £34.25 85.63% That's how things look with the Hills Epic Boost offer. Going to take a long time to accumulate meaningful data given it's once per week. 365 offer running at 12.6% ROI after 111 bets (33.1% with the boost applied). Still nicely in front with the real money betbuilder bets, largely based on goalscorer elements. Probably try one on the Coventry game later.
  10. Not sure where it went but posted earlier to say yes he scored as per Flashscore. Also has a make up of 8.8 for try minutes on SPIN's result pages.
  11. Unlucky. Fancied Brentford myself (cost me in the Last Man Standing comp) but not Chelsea (didn’t follow up on my Villa leaning in the opening post but at least was on Watkins). Him, Son, Solanke, Salah and Nunez made for a nice revival after a mid month slump, along with at least 1 scorer in Europe (Hofmann in Germany).
  12. Nice winner to keep things ticking over on the “double up” front. Did mean to do the Newcastle game and pretty sure I’d have hit a winner given how it ended up! Wilson was a solid anytime pick at a decent price on the exchange so got that at least. Update tomorrow.
  13. Time against me in terms of rugby bets today. This for a reasonable looking interest.
  14. Out of idle curiosity, added their try minutes buy prices to see how the return would compare (will report on how that pans out for mine as well as got the numbers in the spreadsheet). I think at the top end of the market buying might struggle to beat backing (players scoring "too early") but with a mixed range of prices could be more interesting to compare.
  15. Good luck all, so much football today (as usual) that I'll just stick to the bare system picks with no further study; gives me an interest and see how it pans out over the season. Just listed by the home team (I remember the names from week to week but couldn't tell you who most of them play for if you quizzed me)! Gibbs and Robinson (Detroit) 10/11 Sky Bet and 21/20 Fred Hill and Mostert (Miami) 10/11 Betway and 10/11 Hills Etienne (Jacksonville) 10/11 Fred Kelley (Minnesota) Evens Hills Henry (Cleveland) 23/20 Betway (less than you'd like to bet*) Walker (Seattle) Evens Uni * "bookmaker" of the week award goes to Betshy who will lay me £4.35 on any player I like, regardless of price. Even Paddy takes my full stake (modest as it is) on this sport and their maximum for me on "proper" football is now zero. Obviously I'm brilliant beyond words and rightfully strike fear into the whole bookmaking community** but when you can't get a tenner on at prices well shorter than 2/1 it's a pretty poor show. ** Heavy irony, for the avoidance of doubt. Especially when it comes to my betting on the odd shaped balls sports.
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