harry_rag

As per last week but just insert the word “Scottish” before “cup final”!

Thoughts on any player hitting over 30 sixes at 13/8? Gayle clear favourite in that market, quoted at 22.5-23.5 on the spreads. He hit 26 in 6 innings in the 2015 WC and seems to have racked up plenty in recent one day games. 9 round robin matches for every team plus the semis and final.

Wasim is a shade better than 10/1 with SPIN (buy at 9, 100 if he wins) and only has to beat the other 5 named bowlers. (Should you fancy a top up or if anyone else wants to follow.)

Ladbrokes have put up "Star Man" prices for one player from each team; a variety of bets relating to performance batting, bowling or fielding. Might be worth casting an eye over for those of you more knowledgeable than me. I found a couple of prices I like, one of which I've taken so far: Root to score 500 tournament runs at 6/5 Seems reasonable given both spread firms have him in for 515-535. I'll post the other once I've made up my mind.

Right, I've done some analysis looking at the last 4 World Cups and focusing on games played between the 10 teams taking part this year. In total, there have been 103 games between those 10 teams (between 23 and 29 in any one tournament). This year, there will be 45 games between those ten teams (45 round robin and 3 knock out). Over those 4 World Cups, there have been 4 hat tricks in games between the 10 teams (and another 3 in other games). There were 2 (0) in 2015, 0 (2) in 2011, 1 (0) in 2007 and 1 (1) in 2003. On that basis, I'm happy to take 6/4 about there being at least 1 hat trick this year. For scores <100, the analysis is less encouraging with just 2 in 2011 in games between the 10 teams. There were 8 in games involving teams not taking part this year. For scores <120, there have been 7 in games between the 10 teams and 12 in games involving other teams. Conclusion; the 7/2 for <100 is not as good as I first thought but the 2/1 for <120 is probably a better bet at the price. Maybe worth asking Hills and PP to offer a <120 price as they both go 7/2 for <100 while Skybet are only 11/4!

Just realised that the top batsman bet on Babar Azam will have qualified for Hills' offer of a free fiver bet for every century he scores which is ok for a bet I was placing anyway. I'd already decided to go with the lowest team total <100 bet at 7/2 before I'd realised there were less minnows taking part this year. I've had a saver on it being <120 at 2/1 with Skybet which seems a more likely outcome for the 10 teams taking part. I'm going to take a closer look at the hat trick bet to see if the 6/4 still appeals or not.

Just realised there's less teams than previously so less matches and less "rags". Have looked only at games involving the 10 teams taking part this year and the stats are less compelling, Will mull it over.

Think I've finished looking at this for tonight but a couple of specials prices have caught my eye and I'd welcome an opinion. 6/4 is widely available for a hat trick to be scored and I've seen 10/11 for one not to be scored. I'm inclined to take the 6/4 as there have been hat tricks in 6 out of 11 World Cups, including all of the last 5 with 2 each in 2003/11/15. Any reason why the trend should stop this year? I've also seen 7/2 for any team to be bowled out for <100 runs which instinctively appealed and seems to stack up on closer inspection. I make it there have been 17 sub 100 totals in the 11 tournaments with 10 in the 4 played since the turn of the century. Doesn't feel like a 7/2 shot to me!

In to 28/1 now but I've followed as he stood out for me when I compared the spread for his total wickets with his ranking in the fixed odds list. More positives than negatives from my quick google in terms of him being a likely starter so worth chancing to a sensible stake.

Just thought I'd note the spread expectations for player runs and wickets to see if anything looked wrong in in the outright markets and clocked a big disagreement on the total runs for Sri Lanka's Dimuth Karunaratne. SPIN go 280-295 while SX go 320-340. He's just scored 77 against Scotland in what was his first ODI since the 2015 World Cup. I don't know whether the value lies on the sell or buy side. Also worth noting that Royal Panda have him at 250/1 for top batsman when he's sub 100/1 in the vast majority of places. Any more informed view welcome!

Decided to follow this one given your comments and the endorsement by @StevieDay1983 but have favoured an each way bet at 25/1 with Hills (1/4 the odds for 4 places). Price is up to 9 but, even at 8, I'd say the fixed odds option offered slightly better value. By my quick calculation, if you compared a 2 point buy at 8 to 8 points each way (both risking 16 points) you'd only be better off on the spreads if he was 2nd. 1st, 3rd or 4th all pay more on fixed odds.

Had a look at that one. If I was going to take a chance on him having a good tournament I'd probably buy his total wickets at 14.2 with Spreadex. He's 6/5 best price to be top Afghanistan bowler which seems a bit skinny to me. In contrast, SPIN quote him at 56-61 in their top Afghanistan bowler market which only applies to 5 named players. As the index pays 100 points to the winner and nothing to the rest that makes him around 4/6 to win and 5/4 not to. A definite sell if you didn't fancy him to have a good tournament. I've gone for the following bet, which comes with a warning that I know nothing about cricket! Buy Gulbadin Naib in Top Afghanistan bowler market at 6 with SPIN Effectively that gives you almost 16/1 that he beats Rashid Khan, Mohammad Nabi, Mujeed Ur Rahman and Dawlat Zadran when he's no more than 8/1 to beat the whole field with the fixed odds firms. Fair to say I've been seduced by his 6 wicket haul against Ireland yesterday but it seems a decent price in a limited field.

Only had an initial cursory look myself but gut feel is I won't be getting involved each way where they need to make the final to show a profit. They are ranked 13th in the World with the 12 above them all competing. They are 7/1 second favourites in Group B behind 2/9 Germany with 14/1 China and 66/1 South Africa bringing up the rear. If they finish second, their most likely opponents are USA who currently top the World rankings. If they came third they could face England or (if they get lucky) meet the winner of group C (probably Australia or Brazil). All in all I'd rather wait to see how the spreads price the outright markets or see if prices are offered for "to reach the..." markets.

Starts 7th June, worth having a thread for it. The following has already been posted in the World Cup thread by @jazzman02

Thoughts on the cup final but no bet this week. I’ll wait till the season is fully complete before wrapping the thread up.