harry_rag

3 from 8 since the last update (Cabral. Ganago and Jackson) That makes it 55 winners from 149 bets so far for a profit of 234.35 points with an ROI of 15.76%. 20 points lost on 2 bets posted in error. Current "target" ROI based on overall sample is 14.24% (now based on 533 bets from 3077 selections).

You might be able to boost an acca (as it's effectively 1 bet) but not all elements of a perm. Pretty sure it's been as it is for a while though could have been different when they first brought them in.

10 points on Elmas (Napoli) at 2/1 with Uni

2 in the earlier Spain games, both 365. 10 points each on de Tomas (Vallecano) at 9/4 and Jackson (Villarreal) at 11/5

A goal short in the Scottish Cup final but a winner in the English one. Still feels like the returns are running at an unsustainable rate but see if I can keep in the black by the time we reach the 100th bet! Slightly up in real money terms from these types of bets but I suspect that's largely down to finding 4 anytime goalscorer doubles at double digit odds. Wins Bets Stake Return P/L ROI Boosted P/l ROI Ave 21 65 £1,300.00 £1,589.16 £289.16 22.24% £1,881.45 £581.45 44.73% 4.23 Goals Win DC BTTS Cards Anytime S(oT) Misc 44 33 13 20 24 26 31 4 28 21 9 16 22 9 19 2

Gone for Graham at 12/5, Tiffoney at 29/10 and a headed goal at 13/8 in the 2nd leg. Don't fancy Ross's chances of keeping a clean sheet given they're trying to overturn a 2 goal deficit from the 1st leg. Multiple angles less appealing today (so will no doubt land regardless)!

It's not one of the primary things I look at but it pops onto the radar a bit more these days with the Bet 365 Bet Builder thread. One thing I will say is that I think people tend to overestimate (and over-bet) how often both teams score in a game. I think you had 3 teams who won to nil; I'm not sure how the odds for that compare but my guess would be that you might stand a better chance backing teams to win to nil rather than with btts. I know that the bet can be down more quickly which makes it less appealing for an interest bet but then there tends to be better value in bets that don't appeal to the casual punter. Partick scoring for fun at the moment and I don't fancy Ross's chances of chasing down a 2 goal deficit from the first leg. Not so easy to call the result (Partick can lose by 1 goal and progress) but I can see btts landing in that one.

I think you could put 4 selections in your slip and boost the odds for 4 singles (subject to a maximum total stake limit) but not boost the odds in a permed bet.

Cheers, just makes it more interesting to follow knowing how you staked it and what sort of potential returns you’re looking at. Quick bit of maths suggest you’ll make a profit as long as you hit a fourfold once in every 5 bets so should be easy enough! That said, 5 or 6 would stake you for a hell of a lot of losers. If you could average 2 winners per bet you’d be beating the odds to level stakes singles (which is what’s needed to have an expectation of long term profit). Isn’t it 22 bets so 11 points staked for those selections (15 + 6 + 1)?

Good luck but you really need to post odds and stakes if you’re posting it in here, with a view to keeping a running P/L record. If you just want to post the selections maybe stick it in the relevant thread, eg the MLS section for these.

10 points on Ekitike (PSG) at 12/5 with Uni

10 points each on Ganago and Blas (Nantes) at 21/10 Lads and 15/8 Lads

Tricky to find value on the likely outcome in this game; the RP tipped >4 goals at 7/4 so I guess the market may have moved that way or 365 are not wanting to attract too much money on Celtic. For the sake of putting up an offering for this thread I'll go Celtic to lift the trophy, Celtic to score in both halves and >4 goals at 5/4. Bit skinny but I got 2.58 elsewhere for an interest.

10 points on Maeda (Celtic) at 6/4 Hills

Took the £1.11 allowed on both him and Kev scoring at 25/1. That looks like a decent enough bet after that opening!

More about having an interest than saying these are exceptional bets but I'm on 3 goalscorers at prices that make reasonable appeal. Gundogan at 5/1, Fernandes at 7.8 (part matched) and 11/2 and Sancho at 9.8

Bets 229 and 230 are 2.12 points each on 1+ SoT and 2+ SoT at 1.01 in the FA Cup final.

Man City lift the trophy, both teams shown a card and Gundogan SoT at 2/1

Is that >1.5? Evens would be huge for >0.5!

10 points on Cabral (Fiorentina) at 15/8 with 365

So that was how we finished this season. This may not be a million miles wide of the mark. Final numbers going back 10 seasons (7 with returns to advised stakes as well as level; this season was entirely 1 point stakes so no difference between the two). It's been a blast! Year Bets P/L Yield Adv Stake Adv Return Adv P/L Adv Yield 2013/14 38 10.27 27.03% 2014/15 34 8.81 25.91% 2015/16 37 4.83 13.04% 2016/17 35 7.64 21.84% 23.50 27.96 4.46 18.96% 2017/18 33 13.55 41.06% 34.50 49.00 14.50 42.03% 2018/19 36 7.11 19.75% 33.00 41.21 8.21 24.88% 2019/20 28 5.61 20.04% 24.00 28.61 4.61 19.21% 2020/21 30 9.05 30.17% 29.50 39.05 9.55 32.37% 2021/22 35 8.33 23.79% 34.50 43.33 8.83 25.59% 2022/23 25 1.50 6.00% 25.00 26.50 1.50 6.00% Overall 331 76.70 23.17% 204.00 255.65 51.65 25.32%

Kev’s article today (thoughts on the FA Cup final, no bet) conclude with the following: “This is the last piece I will write for the Racing Post. If you were kind enough to read any or even many of the others, thank you. After all these years I can find words for most things, but not for how much I will miss writing for you.” So I guess that’s it for this thread! I’ll wrap it up at some point.

Partick Thistle v Ross County: Partick scoring for fun of late; 32 goals in their last 10 games. Graham and Tiffoney stand out among the scorers with 6 goals in 5 games each (both scoring a brace during that run). Of the 9 games both started they both scored in 2, one of them in 5 and neither in the other two. I'm on them at 2/1 and 5/2 to score, 14/1 and 16/1 each for a brace and 10.96 both to score. Also on a header scored at 8/5 in this game which strikes me as just generous enough to back (only 11/10 elsewhere). Would be a bet if it was the same price for a player to score based on the metrics for my anytime goalscorer system.

Not an official bet but qualifies by the same metrics; header scored in Partick v Ross C at 8/5 with Hills. Headed goals minutes were 27-28 which would have been enough to back a player at the same combination of prices. Only 11/10 elsewhere which looks "right" (as in shorter than the true odds). I think 8/5 just about underestimates the prospect of goals generally in this game and goals from the nut.

The worst end of normal variance given the relatively small sample size each month. Only 7 winners from 35 bets for a 20% strike rate. Not been lower than 34% since then and the overall sample runs at around 37%. When I first started gathering the data only 3 of the first 24 players I recorded found the back of the net, at average odds of 2.68 (so 37% or 9 would have been a more typical return). The original thread started badly but then I posted 10 consecutive winning bets. Just how things can ebb and flow (nothing compared to the volatility of spread betting)! The YTD return is reasonably aligned with the overall data but there's been one really bad month and 3 really good ones. March is the closest thing we've seen to an "average" month so far.