harry_rag

Given my ante post bets on the World Cup it feels like fate is mocking me a bit by serving up a game on a rest day that featured a hat trick and an own goal!

10 points on Madden (Stockport) at 7/4 with Sky Bet (77A)

So are you dutching those for the same return (effectively laying the draw) or backing them to level stakes (so you win more if Charlton win)?

Quick review of the antepost selections ahead of the quarter finals. Neymar top goalscorer at 12/1 with Lads - just using up a free bet. You'd get better odds now. - might have still been a runner if he'd not had to sit out a couple of group games. Raphina top goalscorer e/w at 80/1 with Lads - saw him tipped at 40/1 so was happy to take double those odds (66/1 with a boost applied) - no regrets given the odds and stake risked but he's underwhelmed compared to Brazil's other attacking players. >2.5 hat tricks scored at 10/1 with Betway - posted with rationale yesterday. As well as PP going evens for the same bet Hills are now up at 10/11. - Still happy that the odds were value but looks like I'll be glad of the limited stake allowed with yesterday seeing the first one finally arrive. I'd say that's a bit unlucky given there have been 15 braces scored. I'd take the same odds for a future tournament, all things being equal. >2.5 matches to go to penalties at 13/10 with Uni Bet - added this today. Landed in 4 of the last 6 World Cups (since it expanded to current format) and both of the last 2 Euros. - Just need one more from the remaining 8 games. No reason to question the logic of this bet. 4-5 matches to go to penalties at 11/2 with Sky Bet and 6/1 Lads - Added the top up at 6s today. Landed in 3 of the last 6 World Cups and the last 2 Euros - 2 or 3 more needed to land this one so as per the above. 6+ matches to go to penalties at 28/1 with Sky Bet and 35/1 Lads - Again, topped up today. More of a cover bet for the 4-5 bet but still, I think, more likely than the odds imply. - Covers the above bet in the event of 4 or more from the remaining games, happy with that. 8+ own goals scored at 12/5 with 365 and 13/5 with Lads - Covered in a post above. I've seen 8/13 for <8.5 today so there's definitely value to be had one way or the other. - Only 3 so far so looking unlikely. Might have been unlucky to go so many games with no own goals but maybe this is just more random and less quantifiable than I thought. 2-3 goals scored in extra time at 21/10 with Lads - Saw this today. Always the risk of going "bust" on a mid-band bet but I just think the price is too big. Landed in 4 of the last 6 World Cups. Went under once when none scored and went over with an 8 when a couple of games had 3 goals in extra time. Small stake as I'd rather be on it than wrong than swerve it and be right! - None so far after 2 ET games but I'd say the logic still seems about right; not going to regret a small bet on this one, win or lose. 4/7 in a couple of places for >3.5 games going to extra time still seems like a great bet (landed in all of the last 6 World Cups). If you want bigger odds then there's 23/20 available for 4-5 matches (landed in 4 out of 6) and 7/2 for 6+ (landed in the other 2) but I can't get away from the fact that dutching those two prices gives you less than the 4/7 for >3.5! In the absence of a sudden burst of decisiveness I may just settle with the penalties bets listed above and bet on the draw on a game by game basis, which tends to prove profitable. Been backing the draw on a game by game basis and will press on with that from here on in. Even with only 2 from 8 so far the level stakes return is only just short of break even. The Uruguay outright interest obviously could've gone better. I'm inclined to think you might as well pick most of your antepost interest bets out at random! With so few games the part played by luck should never be underestimated. I did think of tracking (not putting money on) the "upset index" for this World Cup and you'd have made a profit backing the underdogs to win in every group game given how it all panned out.

10 points on Ramos at 4.2 (61B)

At least it was a bit of salvation for draw backers in the KO rounds! I notice it was originally going to be max odds of 1.05 and reducing for this thread. World Cup KO games at prices like this one probably not the optimum medium to risk bigger odds. There's so much at stake that almost any KO tie can end up going down the tentative 0-0 route.

As someone with an antepost position on penalty shootouts and who has persisted with the notion of backing the draw in all knockout games I'm hoping for a couple of stalemates to finish the round off! I'm on Olmo and Asensio as anytime system bets.

10 points each on Olmo at 4.5 (64B) and Asensio at 4.2 (68B)

Bet 202 (21.1): 12 points on at least one card in each half at 1/4 with Hills Essentially a bet on a second half card and I think the price is generous even allowing for the game being pretty much over as a contest.

10 points on Kramaric (60B)

And again for bet 102 in Japan v Croatia.

10 points on Griezmann at 4 (63B)

Bets 100 and 101 are the same bet in today's 2 World Cup games (France v Poland and England v Senegal).

Bet 99 is 10 points on 1+ shots on target in Argentina v Australia at 1.01

I must need my swede examining!

Bet 201 (20.2): 10 points on Brazil to beat Cameroon at evens with Hills Not a cert (especially given events at this World Cup) but I'll chance it as a value play to accelerate this attempt.

Got matched on Thuram at 5.6 but not starting! Not a terrible bet if he comes on early enough. Taken 6/4 about a sub scoring, just think France might finish strongly with plenty of subs on the pitch.

Could be wrong info I guess tho I imagine Mbappe has the Golden Boot in his sights, might get an hour to add to his tally. Thuram interesting at 9/4 if he gets a start.

7 changes possible for France with Giroud fancied to be rested, Mbappe expected to retain his place.

Bets 97 and 98, matched for the same bet in England v Wales and Ecuador v Senegal.

Bet 96: 10 points on 1+ SoT in Holland v Qatar at 1.01 There was £100 available to back on this, the first time I’ve ever seen any money beside mine in the market!

That sees me half a point short of a double up so call it done. Bet 200 (20.1): 12 points on Uruguay to get at least one card v Portugal at 1/25 with PP.

Same again for me in Brazil v Switzerland; Richarlison at 2.9 and Embolo at 13/2 with Uni. Paqueta card looks big at 7.6 and a few assist plays (my nemesis market) in Richarlison 5/1 Lads, Paqueta 17/4 Uni and Raphina 4/1 Betway. Feels decent where one would make for a small profit.

Bet 95 same again for the full 10 points in Brazil v Switzerland

Bet 94 is 1+ SoT in Cameroon v Serbia at 1.01. Only part matched for 4.31 points so far.