harry_rag

Bet 57: 12.24 points on Swiatek to win a set v Fett at 1.01

Women's Euros starts next week, may offer a few opportunities. But yes, it's all quiet at the moment.

If my sources are accurate I'm getting penalties awarded down from 687 to 585 so just shy of a 15% reduction in penalties awarded and scored. The conversion rate is steady at around 80.5%. That's quite a big drop! I'm inclined to think there's some money to be had by laying the penalty taken market but it's hard to work out the "right" price to offer. Big swings from one season to the next don't help!

12 points on France to win at 6/1 with Uni Had a look at the teams in terms of odds, form, Fifa rankings, draw etc. and arrived at the conclusion that France were a reasonable bet at the price. Not an earth-shattering conclusion to say that I think the winner will come from the front 6 in the betting. There are only 16 teams in in it and those 6 are all at single figure odds with Norway 20/1 next. England at 9/2 not the worst bet given current form and the fact that they're hosts but they're looking at Spain or Germany in the QF and I think the price is fair at best. Spain and Germany are in the obligatory "Group of Death" and I think the former are false favourites at less than 4/1. Good as they are, and as strong as the domestic game is now, I think the market has overrated them slightly. Germany not the force of old but still to be respected. I wouldn't back them at 8/1 though given the draw. Holland and Sweden should get out of group C easily enough but don't appeal at the prices. France have the easiest looking group to me (in with the 8th, 10th and 11th ranked teams in the competition). Recent form comparable to England. Just stood out enough to me at a price that was clear best and may well be trimmed. (Still 6 for now on the exchange.)

https://www.uefa.com/womenseuro/news/0274-14f1d666b9a3-7c59d08f17a4-1000--referee-teams-appointed-for-uefa-women-s-euro-2022/ Ref appointments; hoping @Labrador might unearth some decent cards bets cometh the time! Could do with a decent single site for Women's ref stats, most of the usual sites seem a bit hit and miss. @jamied02 do you fancy a tilt at doing your usual ratings for this by any chance?

Just starting to look at this so I thought I’d get a thread going. Might have an outright bet or two and will certainly be on a few of the games.

Some stats rating to bookings markets. I've added Portugal to the mix here given it's higher average. League Games Yellow Red Av points Av. cards Points/card Fouls pg Fouls/Tackles Pen pg Refs used Portugal 306 1740 120 66.67 6.08 10.97 29.93 0.99 0.35 25 Spain 380 1897 92 55.97 5.23 10.69 26.48 0.85 0.35 20 Italy 380 1696 93 50.75 4.71 10.78 26.68 0.88 0.37 45 France 380 1429 103 44.38 4.03 11.01 23.43 0.69 0.32 26 EPL 380 1299 43 37.01 3.53 10.48 20.23 0.62 0.27 22 Germany 306 1055 24 36.44 3.53 10.33 23.78 0.74 0.28 24 Total 1826 8061 451 50.32 4.66 10.71 25.09 0.80 0.32 27.00 Nothing that really surprises me in the points averages or the rankings. France has a higher ratio of reds to yellows hence the highest points per card number. I was quite surprised by how many different refs got a game in Italy! Not surprising that the top 3 leagues have the most fouls per game and highest fouls/tackles ratio. (Those numbers will be slightly off as the data had 1 game missing in both Germany and Portugal.) In terms of real world betting observations, as I only ever sell bookings where the price is over 50 I haven't had many bets in France, Germany or England. For the top 3 my historical numbers look like this (not just last season). Spain: 256 bets (140 wins and 116) losses, 69 points loss (biggest ever loss 98 points) - average sell price = 59.05 Thoughts - biggest sample size, slight overall loss (less than the single biggest loss), virtually break even so far, might as well carry on and see if it improves (still a small sample in the grand scheme of things) Italy: 162 bets (99 wins and 63 losses), 542 points profit (biggest ever loss 81 points) - average sell price = 56.52 Thoughts - carry on, obviously! Portugal: 24 bets (11 wins and 13 losses), 153 points loss (biggest ever loss 77 points) - average sell price = 67.79 Thoughts - carry on for now as it's such a small sample size. Not that many games get priced up in this league anyway. I suppose I could work out a "magic number" for France/Germany/England e.g. where the price is at least x% higher than the league average but I'm not sure it's worth the effort (bookings overall is only a marginally profitable market). Maybe something to paper trade for a while come the new season.

I'll start off by saying this may well be of no interest to anyone other than me and I'm not sure if this is the best place to post it (it's not really "chat or banter" and isn't specific to a single league so it doesn't seem to fit in the footy section) but here's my thoughts on some stats I've been looking at across the "big 5" leagues. Average goals per league fairly steady at 2.81 compared to 2.8 last season. Some ups and downs in the various leagues but nothing likely to be significant. Penalties scored down from 553 to 471 (10.8% of all goals to 9.2%). I assume that's down to less being awarded rather than poorer conversion but I'll look for the pens awarded numbers. Maybe things are settling down VAR wise. Own goals fairly steady, up from 155 to 161 or 3.03% to 3.14%. Goals scored by subs up from 666 to 707 or 13.02% to 13.77%. Across the 2 seasons it's only been 9.16% in the Premier League (3 subs max) as opposed to 14.49% in the other 4 leagues (5 subs max). So we can expect an increase in England next season when the 5 sub rule is adopted. Obviously relevant to anytime goalscorer betting in terms of less goals being scored by the starting 11 when the number of subs is increased. The % of goals that had an assist was up from 66.8% to 68.2%, largely down to less penalties being scored. If you exclude own goals and penalties the % of "assisted" goals is fairly steady at 77.8% from 77.6%. So an average of 2.81 goals per games but only 1.92 assists. I have a strong feeling that most punters don't appreciate that gulf which makes the anytime assists market even more profitable for the bookies that the anytime goalscorer. I'm still tilting at backing in the goalscorer market (we'll see how that goes next season) but am also happily a seller at bigger prices. I've learnt my lesson with regard to assists though. Never a buyer or a backer be! Will probably look at the bookings related stats next.

Well, next time there's a "big" game, you'll have to trawl all the firms and see who offers what, but here's my top of the head thoughts. 365: Might offer some under/over lines but not for as wide a range as Sky Bet do. Can be good value on their AH lines PP; Similar offering to Sky Bet in terms of a lot of lines being priced up (presume same with BF Sportsbook) Unibet: Usually offer 2 or 3 lines Betway: As per Unibet Hills: Just price up (I think) under 5, 5-6 and over 6 for each team If you want real flexibility in terms of ways to bet on corners then I'd suggest opening accounts with the spread firms (who also have fixed odds offerings as well).

Probably not, simply because the previous post on the thread was over 16 years ago! I’ve no idea if the system is still in operation (or what it is/was) but I think you’d be better off doing some Googling.

I tried searching for that Q&A session but couldn’t find it. My recollection was that he doesn’t have a high volume of bets simply because he thinks that it’s rare for a demonstrably wrong price to be offered. I did find a tweet summarising his end of year performance that tallied exactly with my numbers above, which may be a first! I think I usually miss at least one selection over the course of a season. It’s his 26th consecutive season showing a profit. The fact that they don’t publish the returns for most of the other tipsters no doubt speaks volumes.

I’m not so sure, I tend to think the big name journalist tipsters are reasonably well treated by the firms to avoid potential bad publicity. I recall he did a Q&A via the Racing Post Twitter feed once and I’m sure the subject of staking came up and the gist was he didn’t have any problems getting on. He’s been doing it for years, he was at the Sporting Life when I first became aware of him, I think he moved to the RP when they shut up shop.

Well, most of the bets tend to be AH lines with 365 where I’m allowed to stake enough to win £2.50! I usually take the closest regular handicap line for a bit of a top up but that can be a slightly worse price or terms (e.g. landing on the line is a loser instead of a push). So it’s a case of already being limited but getting the bit on I can to make the whole process worthwhile. I’m secretly hoping Kev retires so I can knock it on the head but I’ll no doubt go again if Kev’s got another season in him.

I meant in terms of, where the bet is with a bookie, I might decide to round the stake to the nearest whole pound rather than stake with the odd pence, rather than the accuracy of the returns to the nearest penny. As long as I don't suddenly start rounding my stake up to the next £500 I should manage to avoid censure. I don't want the forum's self-appointed "excessive stakes" brigade piling on me for reckless staking!

Better late than never! 9 years' level stakes data and 6 to advised stakes as well. Bets P/L Yield Adv Stake Adv Return Adv P/L Adv Yield 2013/14 38 10.27 27.03% 2014/15 34 8.81 25.91% 2015/16 37 4.83 13.04% 2016/17 35 7.64 21.84% 23.50 27.96 4.46 18.96% 2017/18 33 13.55 41.06% 34.50 49.00 14.50 42.03% 2018/19 36 7.11 19.75% 33.00 41.21 8.21 24.88% 2019/20 28 5.61 20.04% 24.00 28.61 4.61 19.21% 2020/21 30 9.05 30.17% 29.50 39.05 9.55 32.37% 2021/22 35 8.33 23.79% 34.50 43.33 8.83 25.59% Overall 306 75.20 24.57% 179.00 229.15 50.15 28.02%

Attempt one up to bet 4, next stake 12.24, attempt two up to bet 2, next stake 10.71. Stakes may be subject to a degree of rounding.

Bet 126 (1.3): 12 points on Zalatoris top 10 finish in the US Open at 1.02 (currently leading at 6 under).

2 tries for each set of hotshots for a total make-up of 100 and a profit of 23 x stake. My "valuation" of 102.9 proving more accurate than the sell price of 123 on this occasion.

Both landed even if England are playing like the team who've had a man sent off! Bet 125 (1.2): 11 points on at least one card in each half in Tenerife v Girona at 1/8 with Hills

Ok, time to start the new "double up" era with a bit of double jeopardy. Bet 123 (1.1) and 124 (2.1): 10 points each on England to score 20+ points v Barbarians at 1/16 with 365 and to score 1+ tries in each half at 1/14 with Sky Bet. 123 and 124 being the overall bet count for the thread and 1.1 and 2.1 denoting the first bets on double-up attempts 1 and 2.

England v Barbarians is the only shown in town today in terms of oval ball action in either code. A simple case of selling both teams' hotshots for me, England at 68 (Tommy Freeman, Joe Cokansiga, Joe Marchant, Jonny May) and Barbarians at 55 (Damien Penaud, Virimi Vakatawa, Levani Botia, Davit Niniashvili). My indicative values would be 56.4 and 46.5 so a decent enough perceived edge on both bets. 5 tries is the virtual break even point (a 2 point loss to be precise) so hopefully the named players combine for less tries than that.

I've bought Hollingshead's goal rush plus for 3 points at 2 with SPIN. Essentially getting him at 12.5 anytime when he's 3s or less with most firms (5s and 13/2 in a couple of places). Defender who scores enough goals to look worth backing at double digit odds. If you believe in omens, I was talking briefly to a guy yesterday who mentioned in passing that his surname was Hollin(g)shead. I don't, and only remembered that just after I placed the bet, but it will be an amusing coincidence if the bet lands. No doubt I'll embark on a series of conversations with strangers in pubs!

What a shocker, all 3 miss the cut for the maximum loss of 98 x stake on the sells. That's me done with golf bets, I've found my tipping point as Ben Shephard might say!

No doubt a precursor to you hitting 3 on the bounce now!