harry_rag

It’s evens now and 21/20 if you “uniboost” it. I’ve followed for 20 points.

I’ve commented on the staking plan previously, it’s a bit too prescriptive for my tastes, e.g. a run of wwwlwwwl would be decent to level stakes but return nothing done this way. This is the key issue for me; if the selections are losing to level stakes then the staking approach will compound the losses. Show a small profit to level stakes and you still need the bets to fall in the right sequence to get a better return. I think you need to place a hell of a lot more bets to prove the quality of the selections but it will need to improve to show a profit. I think you need to complete a lot of sessions to test the validity of the staking approach but, instinctively, I’m not a fan of it. All that said, hopefully we see another successful “connect 4” before too long.

One late idea would be to back the selections that are chosen by more than one member! I've gone for it, will chuck £100 at it with tenner as starting stake. 5 bets in play.

10 points on Morata (Juventus) at 2.22

10 points on Burgstaller (St Pauli) at 3/1

10 points on Iglesias (Betis) at 9/5 Lads and 10 points on A Ayew at 8/5 Lads

10 points on Andersson (Koln) at 19/10 Betway

10 points on Muriqi (Lazio) at 3.03

I was thinking level stakes, could vary it by price but don't think so. A spread of prices would effectively be my diversification (wouldn't want to be too heavy on pure 1.01/1.02 bets). Not sure I'd post the specifics of what bets I was taking (might offend some egos to be left out, or the sheer pressure of carrying my money might impact the decision making process). Maybe see how long it took me to either burn or double my starting bank?

Think of it as an investment, stake x% of bank to compound the growth, assuming in the first place that it generates a positive return. It wouldn't be spectacular but it might grind out a reasonable return. More like "better than a savings account" then "get rich quick" but that's true of most profitable betting endeavors. What I'm unsure of is the extent to which there are threads showing value if backed to level stakes as opposed to the very niche art of stringing together huge runs of consecutive bets. Maybe it's a stretch to expect to make profit from bets where, in some cases, making a profit isn't the primary focus! IF I try it I'd select a few threads and check them twice a day for any selections (e.g. once when first logging on and ahead of the evening action) as I wouldn't want to be too tied down by it. My curiosity may be sufficiently piqued to try it unless anyone can persuade me (perhaps for the best) not to!

10 points on Mane (Senegal) at 31/20 Lads Also had 5 points 1st on him at 6/1 same firm. As per Aboubakar yesterday, I think it's a big enough boost to make it a value bet.

Winner yesterday so 1/1 for the week. 23/20 in Cadiz v Espanyol

Humour me, just musing on something here. Say you handpicked a few threads from this section of the board, perhaps 6 to 8, where you were satisfied with the quality and quantity of the bets (i.e. someone with a decent track record who doesn't post too many selections per day) and followed their selections to progressive level stakes (e.g. % of bank), do you think it would show a profit? Obviously you'd have a high strike rate but would it be enough to cover the losers when they came along? A lot of the threads have consecutive number of bets as the main focus with value not necessarily the primary objective. Could a carefully picked "fund of funds" grind out a long term profit or do we think the very nature of glory hunts means you'd struggle to build a "portfolio" that didn't make a loss to level stakes?

2 from 4 yesterday (ironically it would've been 2 out 2 if I hadn't switched the filter off). 2 from 6 since the last update. Overall it's 33 winners from 96 bets for a loss of 13.18 points.

4 out of 7 yesterday for the best day of the year so far (in terms of posted bets). The cards bet landed and Aboubakar and Leao both scored (the former for first and anytime bets). 99.58 points down overall.

Am I right in thinking that the overall bank is £70.42 of which you’ve taken £45 off the table (leaving £25.42 to risk on bets) or have you banked £45 leaving £70.42 to bet with? I could probably work it out by reading back but asking is quicker!

10 points each on Leao (AC Milan) at 3.05 and Mertens (Napoli) at 3.4 (23/10 PP acceptable).

And 10 points on Aboubakar (Cameroon) at 2.74 Not a bet in this thread but Lads have tempted me in again by going 6/1 for him to score first; I've had 5 points on that and used a 1 point freebie on him scoring in both halves at 16/1.

10 points on Traore (Burkina Faso) at 3.6 I've decided to switch off the filter for "bookies price > 11/5" which this bet would have previously fallen foul of (shame it's too late to allow Jimenez at 3.5 the other day but them's the breaks)!

11/8 in Fiorentina v Genoa

The last bet won making it 1 out of 4 for the week. 80 points returning 43 for a 37 point loss. 3 winners from the last 12 bets (25%). 240 points returns 127 for a loss of 113 points with an ROI of 47.08% Overall total for the thread now looks like this. 328 winners from 912 bets (35.96%). 15954.5 points returns 15771.63 for a loss of 182.87 points with an ROI of -1.15%.

1 from 5 yesterday (a winning cards bet and 4 losing goalscorers). 174.32 points down overall.

10 points on Muriel (Atalanta) at 21/10 with Uni

10 points on Abraham (Roma) at 2.3

Ok, bit of tidying up and an update! I'm not going to count the win on Jimenez because I'm pretty sure it falls foul of the current filter for best bookies price being over 11/5. I can't be sure from the screenshots I took yesterday (I was out and about) but, given that I didn't post it due to the outage and think it's likely to have hit the filter, I'll exclude it from the results for the system. So, last year we had 21 winners from 67 bets for a loss of 60.21 points. This year it's 10 winners from 23 bets for a profit of 49.87 points. Overall it's 31 winners from 90 bets for a loss of 10.34 points. All audited up to date and all automated from here on in!