harry_rag

Man U v Liverpool: 15 points on Rashford to score at 4.7 on BF Looks a bit too big to me.

Going in again tonight v Eibar. 20 points at 49/20 Uni and 3 on the brace at 16/1.

Holstein Kiel v Jahn Regensburg: 20 points on Bartels to score at 12/5 with BW and 5 (free bet) on him to score 2 or more at 16/1 with Lads Looking at the line up and scoring stats here I think Bartels is an appealing bet to score at 12/5. Brace is ok, there are worse uses of a free bet that expires soon! He's scored 4 in his last 3 starts and top scorers Bieler and Serra are out. It would be interesting to know who might take a pen in their absence but no time to dig that deep. Hopefully Bartels if they get one!

1 from 3 cards bets yesterday (Celta Vigo), 60 points returns 43 for a 17 point loss. 942.6 points up overall.

I guessed it was going to be that you'd backed the wrong goals line (<5.5 was trading at 1.04). Wasn't anticipating wrong market altogether! You should be ok but I make it that you'd have lost 3 times in the last 11 league meetings (going back 5 seasons)!

2 from 4 so far this week, 3 more for today, same bet and stake. Celta Vigo v Getafe at 23/20 A Madrid v R Sociedad at 11/10 Sassuolo v Juventus at 11/10

1 out of 2 on the 4-6 cards bets (the Portuguese game) and 1 out of 4 of the Man U game (Greenwood to score). Pretty much a break even day with 106 points returning 108.18 for 2.18 point profit. 959.6 points up overall.

I've added 20 points on Man U >20 booking points at 3/1 PP. A standout price for that line (more typically 9/4) and I can see a mixture of players trying to impress and, perhaps, struggling at times against a decent Leicester attack, getting it over the line. Williams carded at 11/4 365 looks decent but barely worth it at the stake allowed.

He's certainly not stinted on the rotation front! When I saw how much the prices had moved I was inclined to back United. When I saw the line ups I decided there were better homes for my money! Greenwood's up front and clearly United's most likely scorer. I've had 16 points on him to score at 4.2 on BF (having just missed the 16/5 with PP). I've had 20 points on him, Vardy and Iheanacho all having a shot on target at 5/2 Hills and 10 on Iheanacho and United both to score at 7/2 with Lads (both being examples of "super boost" prices that strike me as being boosted into value).

2 x 20 point singles on 4-6 cards shown at 11/10. Elche v Alaves and S Lisbon v Boavista.

1 out of 2 bookings bets yesterday (the game at Monza) and 2 out of 2 on the goalscorers. 70 points returns 127 for a 57 point profit plus 17.5 points from the buy of Burnley's goal rush = 74.5 points. 957.42 points up overall.

Cheers, well done on your three out of three. Correct scores a market I rarely look at.

Borja too big at the price for me; 20 points on him to score at 7/4 with Uni. Shorter than 6/4 everywhere else.

10 points on Wood to score at 2/1 with Fred. (Under Monday night specials, to limited stakes). Was hoping to get better on BF but will settle for a small bet at that price.

May be on him myself but awaiting confirmed line ups. I think Burnley may seal Fulham's fate tonight and, if it's clear they're going to lose then there heads could drop. The bet that has appealed to me is buy Burnley's goal rush for 2.5 points at 13 with SPIN (0 for no goal then 10, 20, 33, 50, 70 and 100 up to 6+). If they score exactly 2 I may regret not taking just over 2/1 for >1.5 goals but I'll take the spread route just in case my faint vision of Burnley scoring 4 or more comes to pass!

2 of the usual; 20 points on 4-6 cards shown. Monza v Brescia at 11/10 Hamburg v Nurnberg at 5/4

Just 2 winners from 8 bets this week (the games at Nantes and Barcelona) for a loss of 73 points. 24 winners from the last 46 bets (52.17%). 910 points returns 1024 for a profit of 114 points with an ROI of 12.53% Overall total for the thread now looks like this. 253 winners from 746 bets (33.91%). 12634.5 points returns 12547.63 for a loss of 86.87 points with an ROI of -0.69%

Sampdoria got the most cards so the bet was a winner. 20 wins and 1 push from 29 bets. +10.55 points to advised stakes with an ROI of 37.02%, +10.05 points to level stakes with an ROI of 34.66%

Busiest day for a while yesterday. 2 out of 3 bookings bets won along with 2 out of 3 fixed odds goalscorers. 115 points returns 234 for a 119 point profit. 1 winner from the 2 rugby sells for a net profit of 9 points and a 54 point profit from the golascorer buy in the the French game. Total profit of 182 points. 882.92 points up overall.

25 points for one goal, 50 for 2 and 100 for 3+. The 18 point profit for one goal equates to decimal odds of 3.57 which is at least as good as the best anytime scorer odds with the extra points for 2 or 3 thrown in for good measure. 6 goals in 14 games since Feb. Depay is absent today and was around evens to score. Since the start of that scoring run in Feb, Paqueta has score 6 goals, Depay 9 and other players 10. Not the best bet ever but solid enough to get the value antenna twitching.

Lyon v Lorient: Buy Paqueta Goal Rush Plus for 3 points at 7 with SPIN. About to KO so I'll post first and add a bit of blurb later!

Cheers. Good luck with the single away goal you need for a full house.

I love it when, every once in a while, a "plan" comes together!

Notwithstanding his return, and Barca being the opposition, I can't resist backing Llorente to score at the available odds. 15 points on him at 11/2 with Uni. Scored a brace while Suarez was absent and the only goal in his return last time out. 9/2 in places feels like fare at worst, better than 5/1 feels like value.

Exeter v Worcester: Sell Exeter hotshots for 1 point at 59 with SPIN (Stuart Hogg, Jack Nowell, Henry Slade, Tom O'Flaherty) and their sub try minutes for 1 point at 52 with the same firm. The latter is a fairly routine sell but the former looks like a great bet to me. SX go 60-64 for hotshots, the crucial difference being that they have the more obvious Sam Simmonds instead of Slade. Simmonds' try minutes are 43 to buy whereas Slade's are only 14. I'd make the "true" value of the SPIN quartet (based on try minutes prices) 44.2 and the maximum value 50.6. Contrast that with 61.6 and