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harry_rag

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Everything posted by harry_rag

  1. Not matched on either so just the other 2 bets.
  2. Good luck, had a look at those two 7/1s and didn’t think they were quite worth backing but I guess that one is definitely shorter now. McNapprey lands again so break even at worst for me on the first game.
  3. Card count 2-1 in Watford's favour. 9 wins, 2 pushes and 7 losses for +1.05 points with an ROI of 5.83%. I took the 1.8 (not worth too much chin scratching when I'm only allowed to stake these bets to win a fiver anyway) and had what I was allowed (4 quid) on the straight "most cards" bet at 5/4.
  4. Done Pacheco at 2.59 (6/4 is fine), my strongest fancy for this game. Also McKinnon at 2.76 (ok at 8/5). Wavering over 3rd pick; Chase at 11/10 not bad but Higgins maybe more appealing IF I can get 2/1 or better. TBC on that one.
  5. Done the first game. McCaffrey my "nap" again, evens with Lads using a boost. Should be odds on in my opinion. Seems to be fit while Mitchell likely to be out, increasing his workload. He might score and he might not but I'm happy to back him at evens. As per last week, double stake. Others for me are AJ Brown at 6/4 or better and Kittle at 11/5 or better. Will do the other game shortly.
  6. Bet 21.3: 15 points on Gakpo to have at least one shot v Brighton at 1/33 with Lads
  7. 10 points on Salah at 2.84 Don't like backing him but a system is a system! (My strong gut feeling is he's loss making to back and I know he's hugely profitable to sell player goal minutes, possibly the most profitable player of all). A good player no doubt, but massively overrated by the markets.
  8. Bet 20.2: 15 points on Djokovic to win at 1.04 Don't see him losing from 2-0 up.
  9. 10 points on Fernades at 2.96 (15/8 Sky Bet acceptable)
  10. 15 points on both teams 10+ booking points on S Lisbon v Porto at 1/40 Sky Bet Cup final between these two teams with a bookings expectation of 75 plus, what's not to like. Oh, and even better, Hills aren't offering evens about it.
  11. I'll have a think. The tenner limit is universal; I guess they know a lot of the prices would be arb-able. They quoted that last one as increased from 1/4 but it was around 1.44 to lay on BF. Nothing surer to make their selections hit a winning streak than for us to start laying them to profit when they lose (but at least if one of us backed them and one of us laid them someone would be making a profit)!
  12. Not worth the bother for me given the tenner stake limit. If you have a scenario where there's an arb and one side of the bet offers clear value you'd be better in the long run just backing the value bet rather than taking the arb (as you're then splitting your stake across a good and a bad bet rather than just taking a good bet). One has to assume Hills have just had a period of good fortune with the way the results have gone on these selections lately. Worth considering each one on an individual basis and deciding whether to back it or not. Will have to decide whether to persist on putting them up in this thread though!
  13. Someone at Hills must have entered into a pact with the devil!
  14. Watford 0 Asian handicap cards v Middlesbrough, 1pt at 1.95 with 365 Unfortunately cut (unusually early) to 1.8 so maybe not worth bothering.
  15. Bet 18.3: 10 points on a 1st half goal in Man City v Arsenal at evens with Hills Shrugging off the irrational notion that these "Epic Odds" bets are cursed I'm going to the well yet again! Whilst Hills might be pushing it to say this has been boosted from 1/4 it's still a sub 1.5 shot on the exchange and I'm happy enough that it's a value bet. You have to go back 14 games to find a goalless 1st half in a meeting between these two teams. The last one was in 2017, in an FA Cup tie!
  16. Just done a quick totting up and I make it you'd be around 5 points down if you'd backed every selection to 1 point level stakes (without deducting any commission). I appreciate it's stating the bleedin' obvious to say you need a significant improvement in the strike rate to get anywhere near the 50/50 success rate required for break even but I think it's worth knowing how your selections perform to level stakes so you know whether any problem lies with your selections or your staking approach. (If you're not winning to level stakes then you can expect to lose in the long run and any short term success is down to luck; if you are winning to level stakes but not in reality then it's the staking plan that's at fault.) Personally (and I've no doubt said similar before) I think you need to be more selective. No-one should be betting on U21 games and low-level leagues unless they've got specialist knowledge that gives them a genuine edge. I also think betting with the bookies in these markets (as opposed to the exchange in a market with decent liquidity) is reducing your chances of making a profit. You'd be close to a 100% book on the exchange (say 3 and 1.5) whereas Hills have the protection of an 108% book (e.g. 7/4 and 2/5). It's hard to see you beating that in the long run unless you know something they don't. I appreciate that this is very much at the low stakes/for fun end of the spectrum but it's still worth considering ways to improve things (as losing less would definitely be more fun)! My advice would be: Track the level stakes returns for your bets so you know how well you're really doing Less bets on low level games Less bets with the bookies
  17. After 6 then 7 goals in the last 2 Dortmund games it's refreshing to see a punter who doesn't have a superstitious fear of sequences!
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