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Fader

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Fader last won the day on May 26

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About Fader

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    God Punter
  • Birthday 02/10/1984

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  1. This tournament is literally a "rinse and repeat" of last week. Looking at the market, bizarrley they have put up Gurney at 14/1 with Betfair so once again I will take him. He's away from MVG again here and wont face him until the final. He's already beaten the likes of Cross without too much hassle. I'll again take Heta too because after beating James Wade he found himself 6-0 down to Cross in the next round and Cross scoring 110 so he could find himself alittle unfortunate there. He got a few legs back only to lose 8-3, but I'll give him another chance here. 3pts E/W D.Gurney to win NZ Masters 14/1 betfair 1pt E/W D.Heta to win NZ Masters 66/1 betvictor
  2. The Paul Hunter classic gets played over this weekend (Saturday/Sunday 23rd/24th August) This event is no longer a ranking event, after being ranked for 3 years. Instead it's been cut down dramatically (probably players not entering a non-ranking event) and now we have just 16 players into the main draw. Looking at the draw, the bottom half is an easy call for me and that's Dave Gilbert. So many of that bottom 8 are out-of-form that I really think he makes the final here. The top half I see it between the newly in-form Shuan Murphy or possibly Luca Brecel is ready to turn some form around. Murphy has a good record against Kyren Wilson so if he beats Brecel, I would fancy him to make the final. With the odds avaliable, it's not worth me going each-way on these two. Both win-only 4pts S.Murphy to win Paul Hunter Classic 5/1 Ladbrokes 3pts D.Gilbert to win Paul Hunter Classic 6/1 bet365
  3. So here we are. Onto the Tour Championship with the brand new format. I'm just not sure about this kind of format. You will have Justin Thomas at -10 before we tee off this week. So, in essence he could be -25 half-way through if things go well. It' just madness to me for a guy who won last week (which i'm happy about ofcourse) for the first time in the year and now he's 10 shots clear of some players. Anyways, most bookies will be offering 4 places with only 30 players on show, so for me I'm just quite simply taking a couple of players at "win only" I'm not going to bother with each-way this week. I must also point out that a market is avaliable for betting "WITHOUT" the starting strokes structure. So I'll dabble in that too as this course will not be easy to make up mass strokes. Just so everybody knows this is how the madness is going to unfold. Starting strokes : J.Thomas -10 ----------------------------------- P.Cantlay -8 ---------------------------------- B.Koepka -7 ---------------------------------- P.Reed -6 ----------------------------------- R.McIlroy -5 ------------------------------------ J.Rahm -4 M.Kuchar -4 X.Schuaffele -4 W.Simpson -4 A.Ancer -4 ------------------------------------ G.Woodland -3 T.Finau -3 A.Scott -3 D.Johnson -3 H.Matsuyama -3 ------------------------------------- P.Casey -2 J.Rose -2 B.Snedeker -2 R.Fowler -2 K.Kisner -2 ------------------------------------- M.Leishman -1 T.Fleetwood -1 C.Conners -1 S.im -1 C.Reavie -1 -------------------------------------- B.DeChambre E L.Oosthuizen E C.Howell E L.Glover E J.Kokrak E Matsuyama just looked awesome on Sunday especially. That kind of form I'm hoping continues here. I'm going to take him at 40/1 in the outright and also in the "without strokes" market. He's the player I like most this week. Next up, I'll take Snedeker also, another player that looked good last week. He suprised me last week, I didn't expect him up there and I'll pay to see if he can perform this week. Finally, I'll take another player who is a jack of all trades really and a good scrambler and that's Tommy Fleetwood. Possibly out of form but ready to turn that around here. 1pt H.Matsuyama to win 40/1 ladbrokes 0.5pts T.Fleetwood to win 100/1 ladbrokes 2pts H.Matsuyama (without strokes play) 18/1 ladbrokes 2pts B.Snedeker (without stroke play) 45/1 unibet 2pts T.Fleetwood (without stroke play) 25/1 betfair
  4. Thomas wins and in style. 14/1 winner. 150/1 Conners grabs a 7th place for a 20/1+ placing too. Sabbatini criminal not to do the same with a real poor final round.
  5. 8/1 payout on Gurney, who makes the final
  6. Looking ahead to tomorrows action in China, there is one I like. That is taking on Barry Hawkins, who was awful last week. Barry has always started seasons slowly/badly but I'm not normally one to use that as a reason to lay him. However, looking at his start (lost 4-1 at Riga to Jamie O'Neill and lost 6-2 to Daniel Wells) well then anybody (he's playing) looks to have a chance. Barry Pinches is an experienced pro and although Barry has beat him both times they have played, both have been with a deciding frame. I'm on Pinches in the "Battle of the Barrys" 2pts B.Pinches to beat B.Hawkins 7/1 ladbrokes
  7. Rather annoyingly last week, Reed wins. The player I've been following for a good few weeks and finally gave-up on. This week the BMW Championship get underway. Justin Rose has been runner-up 2 years running here and ofcourse won it in 2011 also. Keegan Bradley is the defending champion. Some real quality here this week. I'm going to stick with Justin Thomas this week. It just feels to me like he's getting closer and this could be the event where he gets that first win since the wrist injury. The only weakness in his game recently has been with the putter and most recently it looks to be warming. Other than Thomas, I'll take a few bigger prices. First up is Kokrak. Has the length here and is looking like the form of the beginning of the year. Next up Sabbatini at 90/1 looks a big price this week. A guy i've taken in the past and is putting well right now. I'll take a small punt on him. Finishing with Corey Conners, who I want to stick with. His stats are still much to be admired, and Keegan Bradley. 2pts J.Thomas to win BMW Championship 14/1 bet365 1pt E/W J.Kokrak to win BMW Championship 60/1 paddypower (7 places) 0.25pts E/W R.Sabbatini to win BMW Championship 90/1 betfair (7 places) 0.25pts E/W C.Conners to win BMW Champiosnhip 150/1 betfair (7 places) 0.25pts E/W K.Bradley to win BMW Championship 125/1 betfair (7 places)
  8. This event gets started in just over a month, at the end of September, but first we have some qualifiers which get underway Thursday-Sunday. I wont be looking at any kind of outright bets myself until next month, but I'm going to take a look for any potential match-up value. First I like is Wakelin to beat Lee Walker. You wouldn't say either of these were in fantastic form, but Wakelin wins this with frames to spare in my opinion. Lee Walker has lost his last 2 matches 4-0 and 4-1 and has only beat Peter Lines this season. Wakelin lost out to a decider to Gary Wilson at Riga and Joe Perry in China inbetween beating Ross Bulman 6-2. Difference for me is that Wakelin has hit atleast 2 50+ breaks in every match where as Walker has only done that feat in his beating of Lines. Which perhaps shows he scoring better. I'm also going to take on Mark Williams at a price that's just too big. Andy Lee has never played Mark Williams and to be honest, he isn't very good but Williams last 2 matches have been a deciding frame win over John Astley (ranked 73rd) and losing to Jak Jones (ranked 75th) so although Lee is ranked 91st, at 10/1 i'll take a small 1pt punt. I'll most certainly look to lay Williams in the next round if he makes it through though. 5pts C.Wakelin (-1.5 frames) to beat L.Walker evens unibet 1pt A.Lee to beat M.Williams 10/1 Ladbrokes
  9. This weekend we're again in Australia for the Melbourne Masters. This event will also be on ITV much like the Brisbane Masters and the NZ Darts Masters also which follow this event, next week. Peter Wright is the defending champion here this weekend. He beat Michael Smith 11-8 in the final. For me, the value is with Daryl Gurney. Gurney had a good Brisbane Masters really and although he will be disappointed going out to Rob Cross after beating MVG you have to take your hat off to Rob Cross when he's hitting a 106+ average. Gurney stayed pretty solid in ther 95-96 average throughout and although he'd have to beat Rob Cross again here, when you think Rob is 4/1 and Gurney is 16/1 it's pretty easy to see where the value is, in the bottom half of the draw. The other 2 I will take are big outsiders. The first is Corey Cadby. Corey is the kind of player that could beat anybody on his day. He got a fresh Gary Anderson in the Brisbane, round 1, but he's the type of player who gets better as he goes through a draw and he's worth very small stakes here. I'll also do the same with Brisbane winner, Damon Heta. At 66/1, he's well worth a point to see if he's got the skills to stick with the big boys. 2pts E/W D.Gurney to win the Melbourne Masters 16/1 bet365 1pt E/W C.Cadby to win the Melboure Masters 33/1 bet365 0.5pts E/W D.Heta to win Melbourne Masters 66/1 paddypower
  10. Yes, crazy result. He beat some top players too.
  11. The 2nd test gets underway tomorrow but the weather report does it no favours atall. So much so that now most places are offering the draw at odds-on. I do think that there is abit of value on England. I think they'll perform alot better in this next test. It's a huge match, as a loss pretty much finishes any chance of getting the Ashes. We'd need 3 in a row and I'm not sure we have that kind of consistency. But the bet I like more is Woakes top England bowler. Woakes was one of a couple of players to come out of the 1st test with any kind of positivity. Playing on his home ground, you'd of have certainly had him as a man of the match (for England atleast). I think he will bring that form to Lords. I also think he could have another MOTM performance in him and so I'll take that too, at small stakes ofcourse. 2pts C.Woakes top england bowler 11/4 boylesports 1pt C.Woakes MOTM 14/1 ladbrokes
  12. Can't believe Gilbert there. In great positions 3-1/4-2/5-3 and then when it gets down to 5-5 plays a stinker. Very little value tomorrow. I do like Dott and Allen to win, but way my luck is at present it's just not worth a bet. Especially as Ding has a good recent record against Allen and Murphy looks to have restored some form.