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four-leaf last won the day on June 23

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About four-leaf

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  • Birthday 02/25/1983

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  1. Parlay at 29.14 with Unibet Roy Smith to beat Michael Mmoh at 5.00 Backing Roy to win this because Michael is in such a bad form. Thiago Monteiro to beat Gianluca Mager at 1.74 Thiago is the better player here and I like how he played on grass lately. Now it's on his favorite surface clay again and I have to give the edge to Thiago. They have also met once and it was this season and Thiago won in 3 sets pretty comfortable. Johanna Larsson to beat (-1.5 sets) Arantxa Rus at 3.35 Johanna as small underdog in Båstad? Why is my first question. Johanna is great at home in Båstad and she's beaten Arantxa two times already on clay in straight sets 10 years ago but I don't see what has changed since then. Johanna has gone down this season and currently owns a ranking of 166 but her current ranking will only make her play better. She's at home and has the tools to win this match in 2 sets.
  2. Lucas Pouille to beat (+2.5 sets) Roger Federer at 2.00 with Betfair Here I have to recommend a huge stake on Lucas to win at least a set. Lucas to win are priced at 10 but does that really reflect on the reality? Based on Rogers performances so far I'd say no and Lucas can play some good tennis as we all know. Lucas only needs one good set and this bet will find it's way home and I think the chances of that happening are higher than the price of evens suggests. Roger is always Roger but I think Lucas are good enough for a set here.
  3. Lorenzo Musetti to beat Yosuke Watanuki at 2.70 with Betfair In Recanati there's a challenger going on and Lorenzo has a match that looks like a tough draw for him but I honestly don't think so and can't understand the odds on this one. Lorenzo won Junior Aussie open so he can play on hardcourt. He may have played on clay last week but I'm not so worried about his change of surface because the guy is allround and his opponent the japanese Yosuke doesn't scare me at all.
  4. Parlay at 8.38 with Betfair Cori Gauff to beat Venus Williams at 4.30 Go Coco go! Miomir Kecmanovic/Roberto Carballes Baena, Miomir to win first set and win the match 1.95 Let's hope Miomir comes into this with full speed ahead because I don't know what to expect from him or his opponent RCB. Miomir could be like in Antalya and go unbroken for 6 sets so if that's the case he should find a break to win first set. The match he should also win ofcourse but how I got no clue.
  5. Cori Gauff to beat Venus Wiliams at 4.30 with Betfair This is the second time I back Cori to win and I know this girl got game. It's a huge game she has that can carry her a long way. Maybe to the top of the game beating even Serena Williams in number of Grand slam titles. If she's that good, she'll easily beat Venus today.
  6. Can't give you mutch input on any of the matches except saying that Jessica Pegula probably has more chances to win than the odds suggest because Mihaela isn't at her best on grass.
  7. Nicolas Jarry to beat Andreas Seppi at 1.96 with Unibet Nico is the better player of these two right now and he showed some good stuff on grass lately. He also beat Andreas the only time they've met in Winston Salem on hardcourt last season.
  8. No value in PCB I'm affraid and now he's down a set and 5-5 in second just in time for rain delay. Sonego makes it look easy to beat PCB but that game isn't enough to break Miomir Kecmanovic who's got broken exactly one time only this week and it was Ugo Humbert who broke back but got broken again just before tie-break. Jordan Thompson did it very well but I always had the feeling Miomir would turn it around if it had come to that and it did. Miomir plays so well so that chances to break him are very limited.
  9. @aphro your value radar just missed Thomas Fabbiano at around 3.90
  10. Not a bad pick. I'd take it if I didn't already wait for Cori Gauffs match to start and Hubert Hurkacz match are schedueled to start at the same time as Coris match. But I think we will see a three set match in Taylor Fritz/Hubert Hurkacz
  11. I wouldn't be surprised to see PCB beating Bernard as he's done it before on a hardcourt and he played very well yesterday although the opponent was only Kevin Krawietz.
  12. @aphro what else do you have on value radar? Is there no value in Pablo Carreno Busta?
  13. You must have missed seeing Victors performance on his second serves yesterday and he only won because clearly it was an opponent who didn't want to be in Antalya. I've already written Miomir -1.5 sets at 3.00 with Betfair.
  14. Cori Gauff to beat Greet Minnen at 2.75 with Unibet I get it Greet is the higher ranked player and has been playing solid tennis this season climbing over 200 spots on the ranking. But I also get it that Cori is a massive talent with big goals on her mind. When taking into account how Greet played last match dropping second set 6-2 I think Cori has a bigger chance to win this than these odds suggest.
  15. Miomir Kecmanovic to beat (-1.5 sets) Victor Troicki at 3.00 with Betfair After seeing Miomir playing today I can easily say this serbian clash will be won by Miomir in two. There's a gulf in class between these two players right now. The second serve is where Victor loses many points by doing lots of errors while Miomir is better on his second serve and it should show in this match.