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CzechPunter last won the day on October 29

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  1. Well, at the current odds, I'd rather be backing Thiem, but I wouldn't be too hopeful. The handicap line is spot on imo, no value there.
  2. Daniil Medvedev to beat Rafael Nadal at 1.70 with Pinnacle So a push for Federer-Berrettini. Nadal really looked rather poor and I think that he just isn't fit physically, which is something that he needs to be considering his playing style. Medvedev looked better than him in the first round anyway and the US Open finals showed that he can certainly beat him.
  3. Well, that was certainly unexpected. Tomorrow, I'm backing Roger Federer (-4) to beat Matteo Berrettini at 1.93 with Pinnacle, same reasoning as for Djokovic-Berrettini. Federer now needs to win quite desperately - and Berrettini doesn't seem to be in the right form to challenge him.
  4. Daniil Medvedev (-2.5) to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas at 1.75 with Pinnacle Alright, Djokovic managed to win 2-0 as predicted and I'm going to continue backing the favorites on Monday, with Medvedev being my pick of the day. @Torque has done a great job listing all the arguments, but what clinches it for me is the H2H and the fact that the Russian has had plenty of rest, which is something that he desperately needed.
  5. Novak Djokovic (-1.5 sets) to beat Matteo Berrettini at 1.61 with Pinnacle Right. As much as I admire Berrettini's heroic efforts from this season, he's unproven against the really top guys and he has the worst possible draw for the first round, as Djokovic will have to be in full focus with no qualification guaranteed and with every single set counting for something at the start of the tournament. That's why I think that there's some value even in such an obvious and public bet. No matter how you look at it, this is a must-win match for Djokovic - and chances are that he's going to grab the win without too many difficulties.
  6. Roy Smith (+4.5) to beat Michael Mmoh at 1.90 with Bet365 This is obviously not a particularly appealing week betting-wise, but I like this one. Mmoh is the better player of the two overall, but he's been dreadful all season long and the fact that he's found some form here doesn't really impress me. Smith has beaten Mmoh earlier in this season and he's beaten Kudla last time out as well, so I like his chances of keeping this close at the very least.
  7. The groups are out - Nadal/Medvedev/Zverev/Tsitsipas and Djokovic/Federer/Thiem/Berrettini. The second group should be relatively straightforward unless Thiem decides to show up out of the blue, but the first group should be fun . Any predictions?
  8. It's the funny format again, right? Well, I reckon that there's probably some value in backing Fokina at 6.72 or something, that's just a ridiculous price, although the bet isn't going to come in all that often.
  9. The match above has been cancelled. Gonzalo Escobar to beat Sebastian Baez at 1.74 with Pinnacle Going for a favourite this time around. Escobar is generally playing at a higher level than Baez, so I think that he should be something like 1.50 here. Both guys are on decent runs, but Escobar's wins have come against players of a very decent standard, while Baez has been beating lads that most of us have never heard before. Not much to add here apart from that. Adrian Menendez-Maceiras to beat John Jeffrey Wolf at 3.25 with Bet365 If risk is what you're looking for, AMM should certainly give you a good run for your money. He's beaten Wolf twice last season and, while Wolf has certainly improved since then, I don't think that there's anything to suggest that he should be such a big favorite this time around. I haven't been paying all that much attention to him, to be fair, but I've seen AMM recently and he looked pretty good in his defeat against Vesely, for example, so I reckon he's a very live underdog here.
  10. Yuta Shimizu to beat Yosuke Watanuki at 3.31 with Pinnacle While I do agree with Watanuki being the favorite in this one, I don't get the odds at all. He's been playing well under his standards all year long and, while he was the finalist here last year, you never know how that's going to work out with unproven youngsters. I'm not saying that this can't finish 6-2 6-2 in his favor, it certainly can, but Shimizu had a tremendous tournament last time out, even taking a set off Fokina, and, unlike Watanuki, he also had some rest ahead of this encounter, so I think that it makes sense to chance him at everything above 3.00. If you'd like some additional security, it's probably better to go for the set handicap over the 3.5 games handicap.
  11. @MMABetting97 Well, this week wasn't particularly good. @lelit I have to say that I haven't been watching the WTA Finals all that much, but it seems that Svitolina is essentially the only player that's playing to at least some standards there. I'd certainly be surprised to see Bencic win, but I've seen almost nothing from China this week.
  12. Stefanos Tsitsipas to beat Novak Djokovic at 3.99 with Pinnacle The odds have already dropped from the opening values, but I like the price nonetheless. Put simply, Djokovic has been nowhere near his usual level so far in this event and he really seems to be playing only as strongly as he needs to. It worked against Moutet and Edmund, but is it going to work against Tsitsipas? Perhaps it is, but I'm willing to take a chance at odds this big.
  13. Henri Laaksonen to beat Botic Van De Zandschulp at 2.06 with Pinnacle While I do not expect this to be easy by any means, as Botic is on an excellent run at the moment, but I don't think that Laaksonen should be offered at above 2.00, as he's still the better player by a fair margin. Also, I can imagine that Botic might be a bit tired after playing so much recently and Laaksonen has something to play for, as he's currently on the edge of Top 100.