CzechPunter

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CzechPunter last won the day on October 9 2017

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  1. Australian Open 2018

    I might have lost three points there, but, since that loss allowed me to avoid a minor heart attack, I'm not too bothered. In fact, it's the first point of the season at which I'm satisfied, as I'm +26.9pts for the event and +5.2pts overall. Hopefully, things aren't going to go straight downhill from here, but let's see. Grigor Dimitrov (-1.5 sets) to beat Kyle Edmund at 1.60 with Unibet Honestly, this should be the end of the road for Edmund, who was lucky to draw Basilashvili and Seppi in the previous rounds, as both managed to trouble him just a little bit before self-destructing on their own. He did win against Anderson, which needs to be respected, and his forehand will be able to do some damage against Dimitrov, but, when it comes to the mental game, I'm not sure that Edmund is there yet. This will be his first real big match here and it's going to come against a guy that outplayed Kyrgios in four sets with only one minor slip at the very end. Elina Svitolina (-4.5) to beat Elise Mertens at 1.96 with Marathonbet Going against Mertens again, as she seems to be going in the opposite direction than Svitolina. Svitolina played an absolute cracker of a set against Allertova in the previous round, looking sharp and focused, while Mertens had serious issues against both Cornet and Martic. Not too surprising given how many matches she's played lately, but the issue is that she might just be way too tired to be competitive in this one. She doesn't have any weapons for winning cheap points against Svitolina, she doesn't have any experience, and she lost to her very quickly last year in a much less consequential match. Unless Svitolina reverts to her performances from R1 and R2, this shouldn't be too hard.
  2. Australian Open 2018

    Maybe it's me getting old, but I'm placing a 3pts bet on Hsieh at 8.70 with Marathonbet now. I didn't like the potential payouts at 4.00-5.00, but I don't mind them now. Unless Kerber retires in the first set, it will be a nice clean profit.
  3. Australian Open 2018

    Yep, one crucial hold in the second and it could've been very different, the mental game completely shifted after the re-break. Once the third set was gone there was no chance.
  4. Australian Open 2018

    Honestly, I don't like any bets for Monday either. Everything looks just about right price-wise, I was hoping to get 2.10 or so for Chung to get a set, but no luck there. I was also hoping for some interesting lines for Fognini/Berdych, but no luck there either . I even looked through the doubles, but everything is sort of meh. So yeah, the only match that I'll be interested in is Kerber-Hsieh. Would be a shocker to see Kerber lose in the form she's in, but stranger things have happened.
  5. Australian Open 2018

    Well, that wasn't good. Marterer fell apart mentally after winning the first set and DelPo was lifeless throughout. Benneteau and Fognini played five sets, however, and there were some subtle pluses in regards to the long-term bets - Thiem/Osaka/Garcia are now all ahead of expectations (Berdych too though, unfortunately, but that's a trade-off I'm happy to accept). Again, fingers crossed for Kerber, she really should deliver, but it's obviously a good idea (if you've bet on her to win the quarter) to watch the match and lay things off in-play if she doesn't turn up. Regarding tonight, I'm having mixed feelings about going for anything. Kyrgios to beat Dimitrov is the obvious bet, but the price isn't exactly big. Apart from that, I can see all the underdogs having a chance, but there isn't anything outstanding. I'm naturally not expecting Diego to have a chance against Rafa, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him pushing the match over thirty games. As for the women, I was eyeing Allertova in some regard, but the scheduling is a bit of a problem. She'll be on Laver as the very last match by the looks of things, which isn't ideal. I'd much prefer to see her as the first match, not with all the pressure of a night match after Rafa and without a certain start time. So yeah, I just feel like sitting out right now. As for what I've seen tonight: If Halep is tired after that epic showdown, Osaka might have a fighting chance if she serves well (the odds are a joke though right now, 3.00 or something). Nerves might be an issue though. Berdych played a really good match, but, if the odds for Fognini are right, I'll be pulling the trigger. Chung might also give Djokovic a test, he's a legit guy and he doesn't have a history of choking against big names.
  6. Australian Open 2018

    DelPo completely lifeless. Fingers crossed for Kerber.
  7. Australian Open 2018

    Not very likely, Gasquet doesn't seem to be a top player anymore.
  8. Australian Open 2018

    If Zverev plays like he did against Gojo in the first two sets, he's going to win. If not, he's going to struggle. I mean, neither guy has been too impressive recently, Chung hasn't done all that much either, he only beat the out-of-form Isner before the AO and then the tired Medvedev in the previous round. Perhaps slight value on Chung, perhaps.
  9. Australian Open 2018

    J.Benneteau/F.Fognini - Over 36.5 games at 1.80 with Marathonbet I can understand why the line is so low here, as it is possible that we are going to see a really straightforward set at some point, but I still think that there's some value on the overs. Fognini is the more talented lad and the rightful favourite, but I can't see Benneteau giving him an inch after that glorious victory over Goffin. Given the quality of the players, I have to take the line regardless of the outcome. Juan Martin del Potro to beat Tomas Berdych at 1.76 with Marathonbet Although Juan Martin should've done a better job against Khachanov by beating him in three, I have to go with him in this one. I'm not surprised that Berdych is here, but let's be honest, he is yet to be tested. He lost against Struff in Doha, then shocked everyone by winning the TB Tens, then dropped sets against overawed De Minaur and aging GGL. Unless he starts to have some fitness issues, del Potro should be the winner of this big-hitting battle. Maximilian Marterer to beat Tennys Sandgren at 1.70 with Marathonbet This looks more like a Challenger-level match than a match that's taking place quite deep into a Grand Slam, but there you go. In any case, I have a fairly large preference for Marterer here, as he's had to go through some matches to be here. Sandgren, on the other hand, has beaten two walking byes, the only thing that he did was that he didn't fall apart mentally when seeing Wawrinka on the other side of the net. Marterer is a legitimate player for the future imo, so I'll go with him.
  10. Australian Open 2018

    Oh, come on! He always had enough quality to beat the top guys, but the lack of killer instinct has been troubling him all career long. He's not going to win a GS, but he can beat anyone on a good day.
  11. Australian Open 2018

    Good call on Struff btw @Simeon Borisof!
  12. Australian Open 2018

    I have high hopes for Kerber delivering on the quarter bet. She's certainly the favourite against Sharapova unless the latter plays really well - and, if she does get past that match, she'll be a big favourite against both Radwanska/Hsieh. Halep also has an outside chance I reckon for a nice pre-season outright win, the draw looks fairly open for her (Davis in the next round, for example). I'm a bit frustrated that I didn't go for Martic against Begu in the previous round, I was looking at that match long and hard and it would've won, but okay. From what I've seen today, I don't trust Djokovic to beat Nadal/Federer if it comes to that, he's still too rusty. Honestly, Monfils could've beaten him in cooler conditions, but he was cooked in the middle of the second set. The interesting bit is that Djokovic actually requested a day match instead of a night one, a genius move by him (but then Djokovic denied it, so who knows lol). Goffin losing was a massive surprise, I was fully expecting Benneteau to throw it away after not serving it out with some double faults, but the Belgian choked right back in the tie-break. Well done by the Frenchman! Also looking forward to Kostyuk-Svitolina. On one hand, Kostyuk is completely inexperienced at this level. On the other hand, she is also completely inexperienced at this level ;).
  13. Australian Open 2018

    Benneteau choking by the looks of things...for the umpteenth time. Edit: He didn't!
  14. Australian Open 2018

    1-2 for the bets above, Sevastova started to play way too late for it to matter and Pliskova was on song from shot one unfortunately. I'll be throwing in one more bet for today, the rest are for tomorrow. P.Gojowczyk/A.Zverev - Over 3.5 sets at 2.10 with 10Bet Looking at the conditions and everything, Gojowczyk could well trouble Zverev even more than Fabbiano. He's got a reasonable record against big opposition in terms of taking sets, he's in a very good form, and Zverev had problems with heat previously. Given how average Zverev has been so far in 2018, I'm not sure why this is priced above evens, 1.80 looks more like it. N.Basilashvili/K.Edmund - Over 3.5 sets at 1.83 with Paddy Power Edmund has been quite impressive so far, but Basilashvili should be closer to Anderson than to Istomin honestly, so I expect a nice contest with each player taking at least a set. Basilashvili is a talented shotmaker that should be able to stay in rallies even if Edmund gets a nice forehand or two in, while it's also important to note that both players are known chokers, which should play into this bet. Should be a cracker anyways. Alize Cornet (+3.5) to beat Elise Mertens at 1.92 with Marathonbet I just have to go against Mertens this time around, as much as I'm happy that she's won me quite a few bets recently. Cornet was great against Goerges, first career win in that match-up, while Mertens had the edge against Gavrilova only due to the mental factor. That shouldn't come into play here, as Cornet is one of the more resilient players when in form, and she should be able to keep Mertens on the back foot without giving her a lot of options. Andrey Rublev (+5) to beat Grigor Dimitrov at 1.92 with Marathonbet Contrasting forms, unless Rublev fails in terms of fitness, he should be a good match for Dimitrov. The big shots have been falling in for him in every single match so far and Dimitrov doesn't really have what it takes to defend against them imo.