Partizan - Skenderbeu
Two weakest teams of group B will face each other in the 4R of Europa League. First match in Elbasani ended in a goalless draw two weeks ago.
By the looks of odds Partizan is clear favorite here,but i'm not convinced about that. On the contrary.
Both teams collected two points from previous matches and they're stil in position to qualify to next round but like i said - i think they wont cause Dynamo Kiev and Young Boys are better teams right now.
I have watched Partizan many times this season and i can say that they're just average. They sit on 2nd position on table in Serbia league with 4.points behind current leader Crvena zvezda (Red Star). But the gap should have been even bigger (8-10 points). Why's not the case? Well - because Partizan's president is member of a ruling party and as such has a great influence on Serbian F.A. and referee organisation as well. Sad but true.
For example - last night they won a match in a domestic league against Borac who is one of the poorest teams in Serbia league. The winning goal came in the 97th minute of the match and with a great "assistance" from main referee.
The F.A.has already today suspended this ref. Bottom line is that Partizan is in really bad shape, they're playing very poor football and even the atmosphere that surrounds the club is bad.
Now i haven't see Skenderbeu that much. Only against Partizan in first match and against Dinamo Zagreb in qualifying rounds of EL.
They've left impression of a decent team - disciplined and well organized in midfield and defence. In front they don't have big quality but against modest Partizan side they don't have to be that great to get a positive result.
This is a Balkan's derby and because of the some events from the pants i expect huge pressure on the home side from media,supporters and general public. If Albanians can resist in early part of the match i think that Partizan's players will become very nervous and this could leave to a positive result for visitors.
Because of all this i will go with two bets here. Skenderbeu AH (+1.25) @ 1,76 Total numbers of yellow cards Over 4.5
(in first leg we sow six of them)