Smiles Tennis

You say the outcome is random, and it is partially. But as you say the odds are usually accurate, especially on the exchanges and especially closer to the start of the match. The more money that comes in on a market, the more accurate the price is for that match day/situation. So to make long term profits you need to bet at a higher price than the true price, with the true price being most accurate at the start of the match, when all the money has come in. So look at the Arsenal Spurs odds for this weekend. Arsenal are currently at 1.76, but have been backed as high as 1.83. You want to be getting your bets on early, when you think the price will drop before the start. If you're betting at 1.83 (54.6% chance) and the price ends up at 1.72 (58.1%) then you have a value bet and long term you should profit, because you're getting paid £83 (or £79 with 5% commission) for a 1.72 bet. How do you know if the price will drop? You don't, and that's the hard part. You need to usually use information that the general public don't use, because info the public use is already priced into the market. Finding smaller markets is better for this, rather than the Premier league. I read a story about a guy who became an expert in the Conference League (non league what ever it's called now, I don't follow lower football) goalkeepers. He studied them all, watched their games, highlights, form, knew who was important to their team more than others and so when a keeper was missing etc, he knew something most of the public didn't, and knew a team was value or not. That's you're edge, I remember another guy in a book who bet on horses, he would go to the track and watch and he noticed that a certain pathway on the course was a bit more worn than other parts or something, so that horse should have an advantage. He backed a high odds winner at 50/1 or something. Again, info that the general public don't have access to. Become an expert in a smaller market, or bigger market with info that the general public don't really have, or don't use anyway. If you're looking at how many games go over 2.5 goals on soccer stats or whatever and just using that then you won't have an edge and you won't win long term.

San Diego - Kenin to beat Navarro - 1.96 on Betfair Even strapped up a determined Kenin should beat Navarro. Navarro has been on fire this week but is still prone to mental lapses and got bageled last match by Sakkari who is slumping big time. She'll need to be right on her game and Kenin to struggle with her injury more than she has this week to pull off the win here. Navarro lost her only WTA semi final without a fight and she was close in odds to this. I can see Kenin taking this.

During covid lockdowns I signed up to and used Trademate sports. It was excellent until I got limited at all the bookies (which they say will happen in time as you're betting value prices before they can adjust them down to the sharps), but they suggest 30% Kelly which worked very well for that betting. Doubled a bank in a few months I think it was.

Bucharest - Noha Akugue to beat Errani - 2.12 on Betfair Errani doesn't look interested half the time now and will need to be right on her game to stop the power coming from the other side of the net. With only one top 300 since mid July, I would make Noha Akugue the slight favourite here.

Pegula to beat Tsurenko 2-0 - 1.73 with William Hill Tsurenko has lost 8/9 against the current top 10 and hasn't won a single set in those eight defeats (3 walkovers). She doesn't have the weapons to trouble Pegula and hit 60 unforced errors in her last match against Bogdan where she was on court for more than three hours. Pegula's double play has given her skills at the net and it should be a straight sets win if she turns up. Azarenka to beat Svitolina - 1.75 with Betfair Azarenka leads the h2h 5-0 and although most of the matches were played a few years ago, Svitolina was ranked higher for every single one, and in the top 10 for a couple of them. Last time Viki beat her was at the AO in last year and it was 6-0 6-2. Azarenka will likely dictate the play and this is where Svitolina comes unstuck. Svitolina will need to be very aggressive which isn't her game although she has been more aggressive in recent weeks. Viki has hit more winners than errors every match here, with Svitolina hitting more errors than winners in her last two matches. If Viki starts fast I can see Elina thinking here we go again.

Svitolina to beat Mertens - 2.36 with Betfair Mertens is a bit short for me here. She doesn't have any huge weapons, she can be unreliable and Svitolina is in decent form. Although grass isn't her fave surface she's not Trevisan levels of bad on the grass so I see this as more 50/50. Collins to beat Bencic - 3.2 with Bet365 Bencic has hardly played recently and will have a tougher match against Collins who is 3-3 on grass at odds over 2.5. Bencic should win but she's a bit short for me so worth opposing.

Keys to beat Kartal 2-0 at 1.67 with Bet365 Keys in great form winning the title last week. Bit of rest and now against Kartal who is multiple levels below Keys, in her first MD match here. She won't deal with Keys' serve and will be like a rabbit in headlights.

No time for writes ups tonight sorry, Tomorrow I am going for: Errani to beat Brengle at 2.2 with Betfair Maria to beat Cirstea at 2.06 with Betfair J. Bouza Maneiro to beat Kalinina at 4.1 with Betfair Blinkova to beat Wickmayer at 2.14 with Betfair

Two bets I like for today at Wimbledon. L. Fruhvirtova to beat Martic - 2.54 with Betfair Svitolina to beat V. Williams - 1.49 with Betfair. Martic is very up and down at the moment and Fruhvirtova has had a few matches on grass with wins over Pera and Svitolina so won't be an easy match up for her. Svitolina will wear down Venus, she will keep making her play another shot and Venus won't be able to keep running to get the ball back. The only way Venus wins this is in two very quick sets because Svitolina can't find any rhythm early on.

Bad Homburg - Siniakova to beat Bronzetti - 1.47 with Pinnacle Agree with @CzechPunterhere in that Siniakova should win this. I wouldn't say it was too unexpected that Siniakova is here though as she reached the final last year. She had the good win against Samsonova who hasn't been as consistent recently but she is a higher level on grass compared to Bronzetti. If Swiatek didn't pull out to prep for Wimbledon, Bronzetti wouldn't even be playing today and that will be in her head and she will just try to enjoy the day as Siniakova takes the title this time. Eastbourne - Keys to beat Kasatkina - 1.92 with Pinnacle I had Martic to beat Keys the other day but that lost as Keys seem to be doing her week long peak she does once a year. She's serving well, hitting winners and leads the h2h against Kasatkina 8-2 so 1.92 is a nice price.

WTA Eastbourne - Kasatkina to beat Giorgi - 1.71 with Pinnacle. Kasatkina is a level above Giorgi and her experience should get her through here. Giorgi has lost 6 of her last 7 semi finals as underdog with her only win coming against Qiang Wang in New York back in 2019. Kasatkina on the other hand is quite reliable. She's 12-9 in SF matches, winning 3 of her last 4 with her last few defeats at this level coming against Jabeur x 2, Swiatek, Badosa (when she was top 10) so a decent standard of player. Daria has also won 4 of her last 5 SF matches as favourite going back three years and leads the h2h 2-0 against Giorgi.

Eastbourne - Gauff to beat Pegula - 1.69 with Betfair Pegula is Miss Consistent, but Miss Average at the same time. She's only reached a grass QF once in Berlin and despite hitting flat shots she doesn't seem to get on that well on grass. Gauff's game is more suited to grass, she's had two easy wins against mediocre opposition but it's a great chance to go far here and grab some easy points. Pegula has lot her last 4 matches against the current top 10 and also struggles in the wind, and Eastbourne will supply her a nice breeze to make things difficult.

Eastbourne - Giorgi to beat Osapenko - 2.9 with Betfair Penko will be getting tired by now with all the tennis she's played in the last 10 days and I think Giorgi is the one to give her some rest. She played great today against Ons, moved well, hard hitting and could force Penko to make the errors she so often does. Eastbourne - Martic to beat Keys - 2.72 with Betfair Keys has only reached 2 semi finals in the last 18 months, both on hard court. Martic has not been in great form losing in qualifying but has beaten two in form players as a lucky loser. Martic will get more balls back than Keys' last opponents and will mix it up and not give her the rhythm she likes to hit back with power. Martic also leads the h2h 2-1.

Bad Homburg - Fernandez to beat Blinkova - 1.79 with Betfair Blinkova's game not suited for grass really, she's been struggling with emotions recently and was seen crying after losing to Avanesyan recently. She struggled against Lisicki and could have lost and I think Fernandez will take this. Leylah has been saying how she doesn't focus on results now, she's putting the work in and as long as she is training well doing things right then the results will come. If things get tight this will help her, and I feel Blinkova will start to worry about losing too much.

Only had a short amount of time this evening, but went with: Eastbourne - K. Pliskova to beat Kasatkina - 1.92 with Betfair.