Smiles Tennis

Cirstea to beat Zheng - 3.2 on Betfair Zheng has been terrible since the AO, beating only very out of form players. Whether it's pressure, or hiding an injury, or just loss of form which happens, I can't see why she is 1.45 against a decent Cirstea.

I was also on Vickery for this match, I was surprised by the result.

Keys to beat Rybakina - 3.4 on Betfair Keys leads the h2h 2-1. But more so I am going with Keys as Rybakina has struggled with her health recently. She's had two three setters already here and said after her last match how she has only practiced for a few days and is hurting all over. A couple of days rest might be enough but I can't see her suddenly getting back to full fitness and playing her best, and Keys is a formidable opponent.

Kasatkina to beat Cirstea - 1.9 with Betfair Kasatkina leads the h2h 2-1 including a 6-2 6-0 win in Abu Dhabi last month. She was 1.7 for that match so I am a bit confused as to why she's 1.9 today. Dasha has already reached two finals this year and had a little drop off in form after those which is to be expected. Most players can't just keep going far week after week, they take a few weeks to recharge and take it easier before the next push. Cirstea hasn't been playing too badly, but a SF in Dubai was reached by beating Vondrousova, Vekic, Kenin and Kudermetova, none of which are in form and setting the tour alight. That could slightly hide her level and she's also based in Dubai I believe, or nearby anyway, so it was like a home tournament. She's further away here, against someone at a higher level who is recharged after some deep runs and I think 1.9 is worth a punt on Dasha today.

E. Arango to beat L. Fernandez - 4.8 Betfair Fernandez has lost 4 of her last 5 matches, only beating the horrendously bad Pera recently. She retired in San Diego, on her vlog she was having trouble with her shoulder in Dubai I think it was so that could be the issue with her recent form because shoulders are important in tennis and if it's hurting, you can't play your game. Arango on the other hand came through qualifying here with three underdog wins and can move well getting lots of balls back. If Leylah is mostly fit she should come through but I think 1.25 is a bit short so going for Arango at this price.

This is also Sloane's home tournament so to speak, so she has the advantage there. Against Kerber it's more her style of play that causes Kerber problems. Kerber feeds off of pace and counter punches, redirecting fast balls to move her opponent around, but Sloane hits with more top spin and this prevents Kerber from generating pace off the ball as it comes to her. She's always had trouble against top spin hitters and Sloane made it 6-2 I think in the h2h for that reason.

Mertens to beat Townsend - 1.61 with Betfair Mertens is the gatekeeper to seeing if people are top 30 level or not. She beats who she should beat and loses to those she should lose to mostly. She shouldn't lose to Townsend who has only beaten mostly lower ranked players recently, and needed three sets to do it a few times as well.

Keys to beat Shnaider - 1.89 on Betfair Shnaider has been in good form but this moving up a level. Playing top 20 players at a 1000 event will be a heap more pressure, and she might be feeling some fatigue from her recent matches. Keys, although hasn't been in great form, will like being back on the faster courts and this looks a good price to take.

Timofeeva to beat Gracheva - 1.5 on Betfair Gracheva has lost 8 of her last 10 matches and dropping down the rankings. Timofeeva had a good run this year beating some decent players now she's over her foot injury. The faster court will help her attacking shots and she should take this comfortably.

Yafan Wang to beat Peyton Stearns - 2.16 Betfair These odds should be flipped. Stearns in poor form this year with Wang reaching QF's and SF's on hard court. Stearns is 1-3 against Chinese, 1-5 including Juniors and will need a bit turn up in form to hit through Wang, despite a good performance against an average Sabalenka. Wang should be favourite here for me.

No time for write ups today sorry. Sramkova to beat Schmiedlova - 1.95 Betfair Timofeeva to beat Korpatsch - 1.66 Betfair Dodin to beat Tauson 3.00 Betfair

Dodin to beat Watson 2.10 with Betfair. Dodin in decent form on the hard court and performs well as slight underdog at the 1000s.

Starting soon Pavlyuchenkova to beat Kostyuk 1.79 with Betfair

IW - Arango to beat E. Andreeva - 4.7 on Betfair. IW - L. Pigossi to beat C. Osorio - 5.0 on Betfair. No time for write ups tonight.

Heather Watson to beat R. Masarova - 1.88 Betfair Masarova has lost 6/8 matches this year, including to Watson a few weeks ago. She's clearly very low on confidence with defeats against Minnen and Watson in recent weeks both coming from a set up, and with final set scores of 0-6 and 1-6. This looks to me like her head gets to her even when a set up and then her game is falling apart.