Jump to content
Announcements
** Poker League Results : July: 1st McG, 2nd Rhino_Power, 3rd Elliott Sutcliffe; August: 1st Like2Fish, 2nd McG, 3rd Rivrd **
** August Naps Competition Result: 1st LEE-GRAYS, 2nd Gary66, 3rd LeMale, 4th RUG. KO Cup Winner DONNYFLYER. Most Winners TVY: **

Smiles Tennis

Regular Members
  • Posts

    552
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    16

Smiles Tennis last won the day on June 8

Smiles Tennis had the most liked content!

5 Followers

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male

Recent Profile Visitors

3,341 profile views
  1. Tomljanovic becomes a pick now with Cornet coming down in price a bit.
  2. No challenger opening odds out yet. Not much on Wimbledon, ATP are all too low odds. Cornet match might become a selection but need the odds to move a bit, basically, if Cornet comes down to about 1.83/1.84 then I will back Tomljanovic. I will check Challengers in the morning if I get time.
  3. Only a few for tomorrow. Many short price (sub 1.3) matches so I don't check those. Niemeier v Watson might become a selection but need Niemeier to move higher than 1.49. There's a gap in the liquidity at the moment and if she reaches that 1.55 currently there then I would make her a pick. Edit: I will try to check Challenger matches tomorrow if I have time, no market there at the moment.
  4. Lots of selections for today were actually for matches due to play tomorrow. I have swapped a few on the spreadsheet and gone from livescore with selections now, instead of just working my way down the Betfair list. Just over 3pts profit today, hopefully this new method for picking selections can work. Tomorrows matches.
  5. That's what I was doing before but from this morning I have tried something different after thinking about it in a slightly different way. I've explained in posts from this morning.
  6. Taking a narrower band really reduced the selections. Bonzi for eg, 1.82 price, taking 1.77-1.87 so just 5 ticks each side gives results of 5-2 in his whole career. Taking that out to 10 ticks each side gives us 15-8 so still not many. I found that 15 ticks would still give a % around the predicted chance, but also give enough matches to hopefully give a signal worthwhile of using. As for short odds, I don't really like backing short odds too much so tend to not really check faves below 1.3. The shorter you get you don't usually get too much movement either from opening time to the start of the match.
  7. "It would be a miracle if every player's results tallied with the expected odds" Miracles happen. Google Susan Boyle if you don't know who she is.
  8. No. I have thought about it in the past but I think it will reduce the number of picks, and also take me twice as long to make selections which was taking long enough as it is in the past. I am hoping there's value, time will tell of course. I was thinking just now while I was out running, Pinnacle are the sharpest out there, so the players results should, over the long term, reflect their true odds. So a 1.82 opening odds player who wins at the rate of a 1.62, wouldn't you think that 1.62 would be their true odds? and Pinnacle odds, if they're efficient, which they apparently are, should move towards 1.62 as the money comes in and they get more information on the player? Pinnacle can get to the efficient price over time before the match starts, so it's kind of like (wishful thinking here) that by having the Pinnacle opening odds, and the players win % (or true odds), you have the two parts of the recipe that you need to grab value before it starts, thinking that a 1.82 shot who wins at a 1.62 rate *should* move closer to 1.62 the closer the match comes. Or it's all just random and I will call it a day and start from scratch again lol
  9. I take a list of matches using 15 ticks each side. So for 1.82 I check when he's started between 1.67 and 1.97. I did extend it to 20 ticks each side in the past and it gave similar results. You usually get 30 matches upwards in the results for a certain odds bracket. Seems a bit small to usually rely on but it's all I can get. And over the years of using this kind of research I have checked thousands and thousands of matches, I don't think I've ever had someone be miles out from the market prediction unless they've played about 11 matches at those odds. So Bonzi using 1.67-1.97 is 21-13 (61% wins). Using 1.62-2.02 so 20 ticks either side, he's 36-20 (64%) You have extra wins but 2 of his last 4 wins in the second search were at odds of 1.64 and 1.66, so I went back to using 15 ticks and smaller sample as I hope this will be more accurate even with a smaller sample. Thinking about it all the extra matches in the second search (22 of them) will be where he is 1.62-1.67 or 1.97-2.02 so that's quite an amount too add in when they're at the extremes.
  10. Couple more Challenger matches, that looks like it for now. I had a bit of a eureka moment last night and it might prove to be better long term. Of course we all know that to win long term you need to bet at value odds, so beating the SP at the sharp bookies or Betfair (as that's pretty much efficient) is the only way. I realised that my software pulls in the odds from Pinnacle when the matches are released. I would often check the stats of how the players performs at certain odds but using the current Betfair odds. This could result in inaccurate stats being used. Last night I thought what if I check the matches very early, and see how the players perform using the opening price. If I can then beat the SP then long term that should work. For example. Bonzi v Brooksby, Bonzi's opening price was 1.82 (55%), when his average opening odds are 1.82, he's won 61% (1.64) of the matches. So using the opening odds I can see how he's performed and if I can get a value price on the results stat of winning like a 1.64 shot then hopefully it's all good. I "got on" (paper trading) at 1.75 last night, he's now 1.7, so if he does continue to drop then it's a value bet obviously. Molcan was 2.6 last night and is now 2.48, Cressy was 1.58 last night and is now in to 1.48. Some have stayed around the same odds, can't see any drifters yet. It means checking the matches early, which is also better than me sitting down multiple times in the day and checking the matches before they start. Anyway, couple more challenger ones I did this morning.
  11. One more challenger match, and I changed the dates from yesterday when i made the picks to today, when they're being played.
  12. Been mega busy with the business move so not had time to make picks, sorry. Hopefully can get some done again going forward. Tomorrows picks.
×
×
  • Create New...