amity

Hi folks! I'm a forum member for several years but drifted away from the forum for a good while, but I'm back now and looking forward to Wimbledon! Unfortunately I'm a bit late with the bet I was going to propose, and that is for Ludmila Samsonova to win Wimbledon. She was a standout 80/1 on Bet365 only a week or so ago, but sadly she's come in since, first to 66/1 and now to 33/1. From a prospects point of view, this is obviously a good sign, but from a value perspective, less so. But there's no doubt she's on a hot streak at the moment, storming through the field in Berlin, beating Bencic and Azarenka on the way to the title. I'd still say she's worth a small e/w stake at 33/1 (Paddy Power and Bet365).

Re: March 9 - March 15 Thanks for the tips Torque. I saw Riske playing Zvonareva recently and she was very poor, even just keeping a rally going proved a challenge for her, a lot of unforced errors. Zvonareva didn't play that well herself but she still had enough to break Riske once in each set. Unless Riske has gotten her act together, I would be afraid that Radwanska will come out and blow her off the court, sometime like 6-1, 6-2, as she's well capable of doing. The only thing in Riske's favour is home advantage, perhaps that will give her an extra game or two, but I would be amazed if she won a set, and breaking the 5.5 handicap is a big ask, in my opinion.

Re: March 9 - March 15 Agree with matrixman's assessment. Melzer has been poor enough in the last few months and Russell comes into his best when playing in front of his own fans. I can see it going to three sets, but Russell could well nick it with the home support.

Re: February 23 - March 1 Shocking stuff from Murray alright. I had to leave the house unfortunately otherwise I would have thrown a few quid on Coric halfway through that first set as I could see Murray wasn't in the zone, but he's turned it around before after a shocking first set, so declined once I knew I wouldn't be able to see the rest of the match.

Re: Australian Open 2015 @1moregamedad Fair enough if that's your opinion but some decorum wouldn't go amiss. Czech, like anyone, doesn't always get it right, but what he does is for all of our benefits, providing well researched tips daily. You don't have to agree with him or take his tips but if you're gonna disgree with him, at least show some respect.

Re: Australian Open 2015 Fully agree with you here Czech. Goerges is playing well alright, but she's been very poor for much of the last two years. Hradecka has to be the value bet here.

Re: Australian Open 2015 Thanks for the suggestions guys. Baghdatis also benefits from the Greek Australians in the crowd, of which there are many. This is probably worth a few games to him. If Marcos can harness that, he should take at least one set, perhaps more.

Re: Australian Open 2015 Personally, I'm taking Makarova to beat Vinci (1/3 with Paddy Power). Makarova was dominant in her first round match and has a proven record at the slams in recent years while Vinci's best days as a singles player seem increasingly to be behind her as she focusses more on the doubles these days with Errani.

Re: Australian Open 2015 Karlovic should have too much for Kyrgios, also the Aussie was treated for his back during that match. Goffin often lets a set (or even two) slip against inferior opponents, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the Cypriot taking a set, but Goffin should take care of this in 4 sets. I agree that Fed to win 3-0 is not banker material, Bollelli has been playing very solidly of late, he could well take Fed to a tiebreak in one of the sets, still though it should be 3-0 so long as Rog stays focussed throughout.

Re: Australian Open 2015 So, gents, thoughts on the main draw? A tough starter for Federer, if Lu is up for it, he could cause the Swiss some problems. Home hope Kyrgios is chronically short of match practice, so I can't see him going far. Murray has Dmitrov waiting for him down the line, and then Fed, Nadal/Berdych and Novak/Stan/Kei, so I think we can rule him out. Is Nadal gonna be ready for this? I'm not convinced. The one light on the horizon was his performance in the Doubles recently where him and Monaco won recently. Stan and Kei should both make their projected quarter final, could be looking at another five setter there. Djoker has all the weapons to win back his title, as we all know, and it will take a monumental performance from any of the other contenders to topple him. Roll on Sunday night/Monday morning!

Re: Australian Open 2015 It's been a long season for Wawrinka, he's only just finished up after a sterling performance in London and helping Switzerland to the Davis cup, so even with the couple of months break they get, he might not be firing on all cylinders straight away. But that said, the man is playing supremely well. If he can keep that form going into the start of '15, he has a really solid chance. The thing with Stan though, is he sometimes presses the self destruct button. He really should have beaten Nishikiori in New York, he wouldn't have feared Djokovic and even an inspired Cilic(who Simon should have beaten long before the final). A small speculative e/w on Stan might be worth a shout, but I'd hold off on anything bigger til we get into January or until we get to see the draw.

Re: October 27 - November 2 I can't see Robredo winning this one, unless Kei has lost some fitness from not playing, but I doubt it. Robredo ground his way through his last match with Pospisil, despite having several breaks to get treated on his back and being a break down in the third set, but he hung in there and Pospisil's self doubts crept in and Tommy snook it in the end. But like you said, he has to be very tired by now, I just can't see him beating a superfit guy like Nishikori who can play all day and who returns everything.

Re: US Open 2014 Anyone see Fed's match last night? I saw some of it and I was struck by how he is playing with abandon, quite brilliant at times, but he is also guaranteed to throw in one or perhaps two very sloppy service games per set. Fortunately he is returning so well that he's getting away with it. It's great to watch though, it's rare to see a top player so totally playing with his instincts rather than slowing things down so as to think through what he should do next. Against Bautista-Agut, he didn't have to hit top gear, I feel he has another level he can hit, which he will need in his upcoming match(es).

Re: US Open 2014 Hewitt was indeed awful against Benneteau recently, he just didn't seem interested. But the week before that, he was brilliant, beating several high ranked players, serving superbly and pushed Raonic very close, and could easily have taken a set off him. It depends which Hewitt turns up, hopefully it being a major, the motivated Hewitt will play rather than the can't be arsed version. As for Chardy, yes he was awful against Falla, but aside from the first set, he turned it up when it mattered most. If he stays focussed, he could beat Kavcic with a bit to spare. Speaking of Falla, what a frustrating player he is, he had so many chances, had the upper hand so many times against Chardy, but let him back in every time.

Re: US Open 2014 Groth has drifted from 4/7 to 4/5, no clues on his twitter feed. Anyone know whay this might be?