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Darran last won the day on October 30 2021

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About Darran

  • Birthday 08/26/1982

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  1. If you are new to reading this thread then a couple of years ago I decided to do a Road to the Cheltenham Foxhunter thread given all the various Cheltenham pieces never mention the contest. It has proved popular and it is back again as we build up to the race. It is later than usual this season for a couple of reasons. First of all bookies have been very slow to price the race up and secondly not too much has happened especially this side of the Irish sea. To start with I have written about every horse who has been priced up so far and added a couple that aren’t, but that are being targeted at the race. Hopefully you will find this useful and as always I will update as and when. Billaway – Not surprisingly the current favourite to finally get his head in front at Cheltenham and I have a feeling at this stage he might just well do it. Having said that his current price is no value and his nonappearance so far this season is a concern. He was entered in the opening Irish hunter chase of the season at Fairyhouse, but didn’t run and then didn’t even get an entry at Down Royal on Boxing Day. Both those things make me think he is injured at the moment or at the very least recovering from an injury. As always with horses being aimed at this race we rarely hear anything about their well being and until we see him on a racecourse I wouldn’t be backing him. Bob And Co – Obviously wont be seen until hunter chases start up in this country and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if he followed the same route as last season when he won at Haydock prior to going to Cheltenham. Porlock Bay – Last year’s winner wasn’t seen again after that success and he made his seasonal reappearance at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas. He finished 2nd to Premier Magic that day beaten a length in the end, but Will Biddick said after the race that he left plenty to work on and that he was working back from Cheltenham. The fact he was beaten doesn’t make me think that he couldn’t hold on to his crown in March as I do think he will improve a lot for race. Reading between the lines of what Will said after the race he clearly thought Porlock Bay would beat Premier Magic should they take each other on again and I agree with him. I wouldn’t want to back him yet, but at the same time I would have him in single figures rather than the 12/1 he is with Bet365. He looks set to run again this month in either a hunter chase or a point as his final prep for Cheltenham. Premier Magic isn’t priced up yet, but it did sound like he would be going to Cheltenham as well. He’s a good horse and Bradley Gibbs mentioned he had improved from last season. I do think he was the fitter horse at Chaddesley rather than being the better horse. Latenightpass – As short as 8/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair, but connections have said they will skip Cheltenham and aim him at Aintree instead which seems sensible and they have two other horses to target at the race anyway. Staker Wallace – 4th and 3rd in the last two runnings and could still have improvement to come. Has yet to be seen so far this season. Paddy Power and Betfair go 7s which is closer to the price I would have him at rather than the 20/1 Unibet have put him in at. Mighty Stowaway – Already run 7 times between October and the end of December and he’s won 2 points and head heated in another. He was 3rd behind Vaucelet at Fairyhouse in November and it is hard to see on what he has shown so far this season how he is going to improve on his well beaten 6th at Cheltenham last year. Lord Schnitzel – Was pulled up at the 2020 Festival in the Novice Handicap Chase off 139 and didn’t so a great deal after that. He change trainers last summer and started off by finishing 5th in a Kilbeggan maiden hurdle, before finishing 2nd in his 1st point in September. Since then he has thrived as he won 3 points on the bounce before trouncing his rivals in a maiden hunter chase at Limerick over Christmas. That was an impressive performance and it will be interesting to see what he does in a stronger race, but his trainer said after the race that they may skip Cheltenham and go to Aintree instead. Winged Leader – Surprised to see him in the beating to be honest as I’d be surprised if he ran, but dead heated with Mighty Stowaway in his only run so far this season. Just struggle to see how he would find the improvement needed to play a part if he did travel. It Came To Pass – Was a well beaten 7th last year after beating Billaway by 10L in 2020. Has run in 3 points this season so far and after being stuffed in the first of them finished a close 2nd next time before beating Killultagh Vic by a couple of lengths on Sunday. For a novice riders race it was a decent heat, but at this stage I find it hard to see him getting close to his 2020 effort. Killultagh Vic – Speaking of Killultagh Vic he is also priced up and it was back in 2015 that he landed the Martin Pipe. Obviously has the back class, but he’s now 13 and given he’s been beaten in 2 points this season as well as one last season he will probably do well to qualify for the race let alone win it. Cloudy Tuesday – Is unexposed and easily won a hunter chase at Thurles last March, before pulling up at Fairyhouse. This season he beat It Came To Pass first up, but was then 2nd to Mighty Stowaway last month and he would need to find improvement to play a part at Cheltenham. Another Venture – Nicky Henderson doesn’t send too many hunter chasing, but he mentioned that this horse had been purchased to go hunter chasing under his assistant George Daly. George rode him at Cheltenham at the November meeting and ran well enough to finish 3rd albeit 16L behind the winner. In all honestly I think the only reason he has been priced up is because of who he is trained by as his previous rules form wouldn’t be good enough to win this, but he does look capable of winning hunter chases during the season. Vaucelet – Had Premier Magic and Fumet d’Oudairies behind him win when landing the John Corbet Cup at Stratford last season and he did it will that day on only his 5th start. He returned this term to win a point by 30L before landing the first hunter chase of the season at Fairyhouse. I thought he still looked green that day and it made me think that this season’s Cheltenham Festival might be a year to soon for him. He then went to Down Royal on Boxing Day in a race he really ought to have been good enough to win, but he was only 3rd in the end. He was making hard work of it, but coming to 2 out I thought he was going to win given how well he stays. I was disappointed that he didn’t keep finding at that point and that he faded into 3rd. Some might say that the trip was too short, but for me the trip didn’t get him beat. It will be interesting to see what he does next time, but if he were mine I wouldn’t send him to Cheltenham this season and I think they would be better allowing him some more time. Dorking Cock won that Down Royal contest and he got up to a rating of 129 when trained over here by Tom Lacey. He was a surprise winner at Down Royal and he wouldn’t be good enough for this based on what he had done previously, but he’s only had 17 starts so maybe there is more to come. He’s not in the betting at the moment, but the 2nd home Er Dancer is. He had won a couple of points prior to Down Royal and it does seem like he’s found some improvement this season. He ran like he needed further and could possibly be interesting if the improvement continues. Fumet d’Oudairies – An incredible buy at just £800 given he is 5 from 6 in points and he has won a couple of hunter chases. I thought he was impressive at Leicester and Cheltenham although they were over 2m4f and 2m respectively and he was only 2nd to Vaucelet at Stratford and that would lead me to think he might struggle to stay in this. He returned on New Years Eve where he had a very easy task at Horseheath under his new jockey Gina Andrews as her brother has now gone pro. I’d want to see him prove he can stay this far under rules and Gina is likely to have a tricky choice to make as the yard have another contender. Dubai Quest – That other horse is Dubai Quest and at this stage I would favour him over his stablemate. Apart from when he fell on his debut for the yard he has won his other 6 starts for them including bolting up in a hunter chase at Fakenham last February. His only other start last season was a point win at Maisemore. This season he returned in what will probably be the hottest Ladies Open we see all season at Chaddesley Corbett which he won well beating Tango de Juilley and Red Indian. I think it’s seriously good form and connections suggested the hunter chase at Wetherby next month would be used as his Cheltenham prep. He’s not priced up yet, but he ought to be. Highway Jewel – You may remember that I tipped her up at 66/1 last year only for the trainer to forget to enter her! She has been put in the betting at 20/1 with Bet365 this time around and she has yet to run this season. I think she is better than her stablemate Premier Magic and she would be my pick of the Gibbs runners. I can’t wait to see her back in action.
  2. Amazing performances from Boreham Wood and Kidderminster to win today and from what I could tell in the highlights both wins were fully deserved. I enjoyed my trip to Stamford Bridge as did the near 6000 who had come from Chesterfield especially when Asante netted the goal, so close to getting my Tshimanga to score at anytime bet up as he did all the donkey work. I was amazed at how strong a side Chelsea put out and they meant business in the first half and they fully deserved to be 4 up at half time. 2nd half though they were the total opposite and whereas they were free flowing in the first half in the 2nd they were over thinking things. I know there was an element of game won, but if they had the attitude for the whole game then we might have seen something special. I also have to disagree with @StevieDay1983and if Chelsea had put out the youth team then there would have been only one team I would have wanted to have been backing and it wouldn't be the home team.
  3. These are my tips for this week, not had time to check prices but as always minimum price to take is mentioned. Bromley v Solihull Moors Bromley still seem off the pace at the moment. I didn't think they performed well against Southend in the TV game on Boxing Day and they followed that up with a loss to Maidenhead. There last 3 league games have seen them record lower xG's than their opponents including when they beat Altrincham 1-0 when their xG was 0.83 and Altrincham's was 2.37. They are clearly under performing at the moment and Solihull are more than good enough to take advantage. Although Stockport edged it in their last league game, Solihull certainly played their part and created some good chances themselves. For me there isn't much between these two sides and when you add in Bromley's recent performances then the away win is a clear bet. Chippenham v Slough (National League South) I am going to continue to back Slough despite the fact they only got a point on Sunday. They outperformed Oxford City again on the xG front getting 1.02 to Oxford's 0.49 and they have every right to fill frustrated by the fact they only picked up 1 point in their two games against Oxford. Chippenham had a very good win over Hungerford, but either side of that they were beaten by Bath and I would have Slough as a better side than Bath. It is also clear that Hungerford just had a bad day at the office especially as they bounced back with an easy win over Hampton in their next game. There is clear value in backing Slough here. Farsley Celtic v Darlington (National League North) The home side have been struggling having only beaten Bradford Park Avenue in their last 8 league games and I think Darlington can be another opponent who gets 3 points against them. Darlington have also only won once in their last 7 games, but they have drawn 4 of those including both games against Spennymoor over the holiday period. The win was also against Fylde and they certainly have the edge for me over the home side. Potters Bar v Cray (Isthmian Premier) Since Potters Bar beat Lewes 5-1 they have failed to pick up a point in their next 3 games. Not only that but they have conceded 4 goals each time including against a poor Leatherhead side. They also lost 4-0 to Enfield in their last game, but on Monday Cray played them and drew 4-4 which was slightly unfortunate as they were 4-2 up at one stage. Cray are scoring goals at the moment whilst Potters Bar are letting them in and there is no reason why Cray should be such a big price. Tamworth v Royston (Southern Premier Central) Tamworth have not had a good season at all and although you couldn't say for certain they are out of the play-off picture given they have games in hand, it is unlikely. They have only picked up 2 points in their last 8 games and I think Royston are just about value to make sure they don't add to that tally here. Gosport v Walton Casuals (Southern Premier South) Gosport won 5-0 in their last game against Salisbury, but they were decimated by various matters and only had two outfield subs on the bench. Gosport had been struggling prior to that and they face a Walton side who have been in very good form. They have lost just 1 of their last 6 and that includes wins over Hayes and Met Police, 2 of the top 3 sides. They look over priced to me to pick up another 3 points. Solihull 1pt @ 12/5 with Betfred (take up to 7/4) Slough 2pts @ 19/10 with William Hill (take up to 11/8) Darlington 1pt @ 15/8 with William Hill, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 11/8) Cray 2pts @ 13/5 with Paddy Power, Betfair and William Hill (take up to 7/4) Royston 1pt @ 13/8 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Bet365, Betfair and William Hill (take up to 11/8) Walton Casuals 1pt @ 2/1 with William Hill, Bet365 and Betfred (take up to 13/8 and 85/40 is available with Skybet)
  4. It is hard to see any of the non-league sides making it to the 4th round unless Covid hits as it did for Derby when they played Chorley a year ago. The strange thing is though I put up Chorley at 12/1 to beat Derby and yet Kidderminster are nowhere near that price to beat Reading. Kiddie are probably a bit better than that Chorley side, but then I suspect Reading are better than Derby so even if you thought that Kiddie could get something you are hard pushed to thing the price is much value. Bournemouth ought to be too strong for Yeovil who were probably a little fortunate to get past Stevenage in the last round. Boreham Wood have the best chance as they are very hard to beat at home and if they are up to speed after a Covid break (they looked in need of the game against Barnet on Sunday) then they can make things hard for Wimbledon. Finally we get to the game I will actually be at. I've never seen a live FA Cup game past the 1st Round so it will be a new one for me and I've never been to Stamford Bridge either. I've got to say that the 50/1 you can get on the away side is a bit insulting because they are a very good side and I find it hard to believe that Chelsea aren't going to be resting all the big names so chances are they could make it hard for them. To be honest I am more excited about seeing Tshimanga in the flesh than I am any of the Chelsea team (mainly because I haven't actually heard of most of them), as he is the best player in the National League at the moment. He's Championship standard and it would not surprise me if he scored a goal because he is more than capable of doing so. The only problem is I have backed him at 40/1 to be top scorer this season and I don't really want anymore attention on him during this month! So I will have a few quid on him to score at anytime whilst trying to keep up to date on if any of the league clubs get a Covid issue.
  5. I'm a bit surprised that Gateshead have drifted slightly which makes me wonder if there maybe some Covid issues in the Gateshead camp. For example Dagenham have some staff with Covid (they don't mention players having it) and it has meant Dover have come in a bit against them. I mean on all known form Gateshead should win, but could be worth waiting to see what the team news is.
  6. Some brief thoughts for the next 3 days. Not sure what the prices are now as not got time to check, but as usual a minimum price is added below AFC Rushden & Diamonds v St Ives (Southern League Central) St Ives in good form and Rushden have had Covid issues which might mean this game does get called off, but if it goes ahead St Ives will have a better chance than the odds suggest. Poole v Wimborne (Southern League South) Got to chance Wimborne again at a big price although I would still have Poole as favourites. Maidenhead v Wealdstone (National League) Good win for the home side on Tuesday which was their first for a while and Wealdstone have had Covid issues which has meant they haven't played since losing in the FA Trophy to Needham Market. Looks a good chance for Maidenhead to get back to back wins. Havant v Dorking (National League South) Granted the home side will want to do better than they did Boxing Day, but Dorking should be favs for this in my view. Slough v Oxford City (National League South) I mentioned on Tuesday that Oxford were fortunate to beat Slough on Boxing Day and then Slough won easily against Hampton for us. They are a big price again for Sunday's game. Kettering v Brackley (National League North) I really fancy Brackley here. They have lost just twice all season and Kettering have had Covid issues which hasn't seen them play since beating Leamington 4-0 on 18th December. Leamington had injury issues that day and prior to that Kettering weren't in great form. Shade of odds against looks a big price to me. St Ives 1pt @ 14/5 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 2/1) Wimborne 1pt @ 4/1 with Skybet, Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 9/4) Maidenhead 2pts @ 6/5 with William Hill, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 4/5) Yeovil to beat Torquay 1pt @ 29/20 with Ladbrokes and Coral (take up to 5/4) Dorking 2pts 29/20 with Skybet, Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 11/10) Slough 2pts @ 2/1 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair, Betfred and BetVictor (9/4 available with Hills but will log 2/1 and take up to 5/4) Brackley 4pts @ 11/10 with William Hill (take up to 4/6) Halifax to beat Grimsby (Live on BT on Monday) 1pt @ 9/5 with Bet365, William Hill and Betfred (take up to 6/4)
  7. The Down Royal hunter chase on Boxing Day could well feature a leading Cheltenham contender in Vaucelet. You may remember he took the John Corbet Cup at Stratford back in May and although it was a small field he beat some decent horses. He has had two runs already this season and he has won them both landing a point before taking the first hunter chase of the season in Ireland at Fairyhouse. I thought he still looked pretty green and inexperienced at Fairyhouse which would concern me at this stage for Cheltenham, but he is clearly a progressive horse and I think there is more to come. Some people have wondered if the trip is on the short side for him, but to me he has a high cruising speed and there is every chance that this will be run at a much stronger pace than the Stratford race which should turn in it into a decent test at the trip. Therefore the trip doesn't concern me and I think it is his greenness which makes it look like he needs a test of stamina. When I look at his opposition I am not actually all that worried about it. Stand Up and Fight won this race in 2018, but for me he certainly needs a test of stamina now and he struggled to get involved in this contest last year when a keeping on 4th behind Billaway. On The Sod is a stablemate of the favourite, but his hunter chase efforts away from Downpatrick have left a bit to be desired on the whole and to me he is likely to set the race up for Vaucelet. The main danger might end up being Gordon Elliott's Its All Guesswork who seems in much better form this season than last, judged on his two pointing runs. First off he beat a good horse in Solomn Grundy by 15l and then he unseated last time at 3 out when still going well out in front. If he brings that form to this contest then he is a possible winner and it is no surprise that he has been backed this morning. David Christie has a 3rd runner in Some Man who also would be in with a chance of hitting the frame. These are unofficial tips and wont be included in the season stats, but I do think Vaucelet is a fair price at 7/4 as I think he should be around 5/4. Its All Guesswork has been well backed but I will be having a saver on him.
  8. I think it is going to be hard to be bullish about anything whilst Covid is disrupting football so much. I'm hoping that clubs are more likely to get out of league games than they were FA Trophy matches as there were some teams who kept Covid issues very quiet with Enfield only managed two subs against Eastleigh for example. The other issue we are going to have is that training will have been disrupted with those who have had Covid regardless of how ill they were. I have 8 bets over Sunday and Monday. Aldershot v Woking I'm always slightly wary of getting involved in a derby match especially one that is as big as this, but Woking have been off the boil for a while now and they couldn't even beat an understrength Yeovil side in the FA Trophy last week. Aldershot meanwhile have won 4 out of their last 5 in the league and although they were a bit fortunate to overcome Kingstonian in the Trophy last week it did at least keep the good run going. There isn't a huge amount in the price but I think there is enough to warrant a bet on the home side. Torquay v Yeovil I still don't really know how Torquay managed to beat Stockport in their last league game, but what I will say is they do seem to have stepped up their performances against the better sides in the division. This was backed up by the fact they went to Tonbridge and lost 2-1 in the FA Trophy despite the fact the victors had a weakened team out. As mentioned above Yeovil came from a goal down to beat Woking, in the league they are unbeaten in 7 and of course they have the FA Cup 3rd Round to look forward to. They haven't always been the best side in those games, but they keep getting results and I certainly think they are too big a price here as there isn't much between these two at all. AFC Telford v Chester (National League North) Steve Watson was announced as the new Chester manager on Thursday and I think he can get 3 points in his first match in charge. For me they are a better side than their hosts on paper and Telford haven't really improved for their new manager. They had a very winnable game at home to Guiesley on Tuesday and yet they were pretty poor in a 1-0 defeat. I'd make Chester slight favourites here so there is value in the price. Curzon Ashton v Southport (National League North) To be fair to the home side they are proving hard to beat having drawn 5 of their last 9 league games, but they have only won once in that spell, although it was against Fylde. As I wrote on Tuesday ahead of the called off game against Kettering, Southport are flying at the moment and although not as big value as they were on Tuesday they are value again to pick up another 3 points. Chelmsford v Braintree (National League South) An Essex derby between two of the poorer sides in the division, but there are certainly more signs of life in the away side at the moment and I don't see why they are such a big price. No league wins in 9 now for the home side and they have only managed to draw against two other sides around them in the table, Tonbridge and Billericay, in their last 2 games. Braintree have only lost to Havant in their last 4 league games, managing a win against Tonbridge and two draws in the time. I suspect it will probably be a game low on quality, but Braintree should certainly be much closer to Chelmsford in the betting and hopefully they can edge it for us. Horsham v Lewes (Isthmian Premier) The Horsham manager is one of the bosses to have come out and said how badly Covid has affected his side, but they want to play the games as they are desperate for the season not to be null and voided which is completely understandable. He mentioned he might be able to have a training session on Thursday, but that would only have 6 or 7 players and the players haven't kicked a ball since they played a County Cup game against Hastings on the 14th. As good form as they are in that is hardly ideal going into a tough game against a good side. Lewes can throw in the odd stinker as mentioned in the preview below, but they are a side who should end up in the play-offs and they hold the advantage here for me given Horsham's issues. Potters Bar v Hornchurch (Isthmian Premier) Hornchurch have been in good form in recent weeks having lost just two of their last 8 league games. They were against Worthing and Enfield as well so two of the toughest games in the division. They have crept into the play-off picture and I think they will have too much for their hosts who have mainly struggled of late. Potters Bar did manage to beat Lewes 5-1 recently although that was a game to forget for their opponents and I think their other 3 of their last 4 games shows where they are actually at right now. They lost those 3 games and in their last 2 they have conceded 4 both times. One of those defeats was to bottom side Leatherhead as well so it is the away side who are value to win this. Wimborne v Salisbury (Southern Premier South) Another example of how hard it is at the moment to fully know what is happening at each club is the fact the Salisbury, who of course was one of the bets last week, only had 12 available players for the game against Poole. The fact they led twice and then drew 2-2 is of great credit, but I also think it shows how Poole aren't in a strong position at the moment. Wimborne did us a huge favourite on the other-hand last week when they beat Gosport and it showed how much they are improving at the moment. This is potentially a tricker game for them, but the bookies have not surprisingly not caught up with the fact that Wimborne have strengthened and they are worth backing again for me. Aldershot 1pt @ 6/4 with Ladbrokes and Coral (take up to 5/4) Yeovil 1pt @ 13/5 with Bet365 (take up to 15/8) Chester 1pt @ 8/5 with Betfred (take up to 11/8) Southport 1pt @ 2/1 with William Hill, Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 6/4) Braintree 1pt @ 9/4 with William Hill (take up to 7/4) Lewes 1pt @ 7/5 with William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair and Bet365 (take up to 11/8) Hornchurch 1pt @ 5/4 with William Hill and Bet365 Wimborne 1pt @ 21/10 with Paddy Power and Betfair
  9. These are the 3 of my original tips that still offer value. I too am on Chorley although they are marginal value now. Eastleigh v Aldershot On the face of it Aldershot look in good form, but I think a lot of that is down to the fact they have had the right fixtures to see them get points on the board. Their xG hasn't been overly impressive despite the fact they have won 3 and drawn 1 of their last 4 games and I think they face their toughest test of this run of fixtures. They blew a 2 goal lead against Altrincham last week and Eastleigh's home form has been very impressive with them winning 5 times and losing just once. The loss came in their opening home game of the season as well and they beat Notts County in their last home game. They also went to Dagenham and won in their last fixture. The slight concern is they haven't played since the 23rd November so they maybe a bit rusty, but that is factored into the price for me and they look a solid bet. Yeovil v Barnet A good win for Yeovil in the FA Cup last week over Stevenage which continued their strong run of form. They haven't lost in 7 league games now, but they have had a bit of fortune in that time and they did only draw against Dover recently. Barnet have done us a couple of good favours in the last few weeks and they look a big price to me here. They have deserved their last 3 wins over Torquay, Woking and Maidenhead and as I have mentioned Dean Brennan has transformed the sides fortunes. It's still a mystery as to why he hasn't been given the job on a full time basis. They are more than capable of picking up another 3 points here. Double I am really keen on both Notts County and Stockport County winning on Saturday so I am going to stick them both in a double. Notts County host Southend and they still look way off the pace. Their xG in the win over Altrincham was only 0.49 and Maidenhead had a slightly higher one than them in the draw on Tuesday night. They were pretty poor in the 2nd half and I think they are going to really struggle to get anything from a trip to Meadow Lane. Stockport meanwhile travel to Torquay and if Stockport continue to play as they have been then they will gain another 3 points. They were unlucky to lose to Rotherham in the FA Cup last week and they just look a different side under Challinor. They are creating plenty of chances and scoring goals and Torquay are just nowhere near the levels that they were at last season. They did deserve to beat Weymouth last week, but they have been struggling against the better sides in the division and Stockport are certainly one of those. Eastleigh 2pts @ 6/5 with William Hill (take up to 5/6) Barnet 1pt @ 5/2 with BetVictor (take up to 2/1) Notts County/Stockport County 2.5pts double @ 2.4/1 with Bet365 and Betfred (take up to 15/8)
  10. Dulwich Hamlet v Ebbsfleet 4th play 3rd here and I just can't have Dulwich as such big outsiders especially at home. Dulwich have only lost two of their last 10 and played well in a draw against Havant on Wednesday night. Ebbsfleet won 6 on the bounce, but have lost their last two in the league to Maidstone and Oxford City. I'd make Ebbsfleet marginal favourites still, but Dulwich are very much over priced in my view. Kettering v Boston Boston's away form in the league has been pretty awful, but they managed to win at Brackley in the FA Trophy last week which was a good effort and I am going to give them a chance of beating a Kettering side who have been woeful in their last 2 games. Gloucester beat them easily 3-0 in the Trophy last Saturday and then Hereford beat them by the same score line in the league on Tuesday night. Boston have the better team and I think they should be a bit shorter in the betting. Biggleswade v Alvechurch Alvechurch are having a great season and have only lost once in their last 10 league games. Last week they beat Peterborough Sports 1-0 and then on Tuesday night they thumped Stourbridge 5-1. They look true play-off contenders and they should be able to pick up another 3 points here. Biggleswade are a solid mid-table side, but they have only won once in their last 7 and I would have the away side shorter in the betting. Dulwich Hamet 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 15/8) Boston 1pt @ 13/8 with Skybet, Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 5/4) Alvechurch 3pts @ 7/5 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair and William Hill (take up to 11/10)
  11. Salford v Chesterfield Salford have done well in the league since they beat Dagenham in the previous round, but they were really lucky to beat Dagenham that night as Dagenham were the better side. That gives me hope that Chesterfield can beat their hosts on Sunday teatime. We all know how well Tshimanga is doing and if Dagenham had him in their side I think they would have beaten Salford as they lacked that clinical finisher. He could easily be the difference here and I just don't think the prices should be as far apart as they are. Chesterfield 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365
  12. Yeah I had tipped Halifax but the price had gone to put it up on here. They were very unlucky to lose to Wrexham on Tuesday and I have no idea how Wild has not been taken by a Football League side because I would say he is the best manager in the league at the moment.
  13. I didn't have time to write any previews today but a couple of my picks are still value. Bromley 1pt to beat Wrexham @ 11/4 with Betfred (take up to 2/1) Boreham Wood 1pt to beat Grimsby @ 23/10 with Skybet, William Hill, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 15/8)
  14. I am going to add a couple of ante-post bets to the portfolio. Only Bet365 and Hills have Step 3 priced up so this are only available if you can get on with them. First of all as I mention above Hayes look set to win the Southern Premier South title and 365 still have them at 6/4 (11/10 with Hills). I think that price is too big and they ought to be odds on already. We already have Farnborough covered so hopefully they can pick up some place money, but backing Hayes now ought to cover the other bets. The other bet comes in the Southern Premier Central. To me this looks a 3 horse race with Coalville, Peterborough Sports and Banbury looking a step above the rest. We already have the first two covered so I am going to add Banbury whose price of 8/1 with Bet365 (7/1 with Hills 1/5 odds) makes little sense. They have played 13 league games and have won 11, drawn twice and obviously haven't been beaten yet. They are 1 point behind Sports who have played 14 games and 4 points behind leaders Coalville who have played 16 games. I just don't see how they can be available to back at an e/w price still and this comes after a great 4-0 win at Tamworth on Tuesday night. Coalville are 5/2 and Sports are 6/5 and in my view they should be around 5/2 as well. It would take a monumental drop off in form for them not to finish in the top 3 and at the very least the e/w part of the bet should show a profit. Hayes & Yeading 2pts @ 6/4 with Bet365 Banbury 1pt e/w @ 8/1 with Bet365
  15. There was nothing that I fancied strongly enough in the games. I backed Stockport in the first game, but they were lucky to get a draw as Bolton outplayed them so they are probably slightly over priced. Like I say though I don't fancy them enough to get involved.
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