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Darran

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Darran last won the day on June 3

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About Darran

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  • Birthday 08/26/1982

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  1. Readers of my Hunter Chase tips may remember that I put Postbridge up as a bet in a Hunter Chase at Fakenham on Easter Monday which came 2 days after she bolted up in a match at Higham. She had solid place form prior to that as she was a place behind For 'N' Against at Fakenham and was beaten a neck by Chapelier at High Easter and both of those have run respectably in Hunter Chases since. I just wonder if connections decided to sit and wait for a handicap as she looks an improved horse this season from the one that was seen under rules previously. She was given a rating of 117 when starting out handicapping in 2017 over hurdles and then she lost her way in the 17/18 season when first moving to Sarah Humphrey. Due to that she comes back racing under rules off a mark of just 83 and then the jockey takes another 7lbs off her back. If she had of run well in that Fakenham Hunter Chase she would have blown her handicap mark so to me it makes sense to send her handicapping. She was entered in a lower class race at Market Rasen, but this doesn't look overly competitive for the grade. Triggywinkle is miles out of the handicap and has no chance. Expresstime and Grania O'Malley don't look in great form at the moment so I am happy to pass over them both. The two at the top of the handicap are the main dangers. The market will tell us if Shakadame has any chance given the yard she is from and if she is well backed then I would be worried as on form you couldn't fancy her at all. Irish challenger Pat's Pearl won a Beginners Chase at Downpatrick on her chasing debut. It looked an improved performance from he hurdles ones although she now has a rating of 112 compared to 95 when she was last in a handicap hurdle two starts back. On form though she does look the main danger unless the Murphy horse is punted. Postbridge does get 2st7lbs though from her and hopefully that is enough to tip things in her favour as I certainly think she is well handicapped. I think 4/1 is a fair price as like I say unless they Murphy horse is punted I only say the fav as a danger.
  2. 4.00 Fontwell I was debating last night about putting Hidden Charmer up, but what has tipped the balance is the fact he is being backed this morning so I am making him a bet. If he repeats his Ludlow win then I think he has a really good chance here. Granted he was disappointing in a point after that although I don't think he wants 3m and I would ignore his run at Cheltenham last time as he had no chance of beating the 1st or 2nd and the soft ground wouldn't have been to his liking either. I don't think he's chucked off his mark, but based on that Ludlow win I think he is capable of winning off 118. The favourite is obviously in good form, but there has to be a doubt about him staying this far. If Miles To Milan drifts then he is unlikely to be winning based on the yard he comes from, Not A Role Model went close in this last year, but is 7lbs higher and needs to come on from his seasonal return and Master Burbridge was running well enough when last seen although without looking like winning. It looks a winnable race and with the market support I am happy to back Hidden Charmer at 9/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair and 8/1 everywhere else.
  3. Nothing like backing a horse at 28/1 it starting at 9/2 and it unseats at the 2nd! To add insult to injury the same yards damut I’m out win at a double digit price earlier on the card and I didn’t really fancy it
  4. Yes some gamble on Master Sunrise. Clearly others thinking the same as me!
  5. 3.30 Bangor If you have been paying really close attention to what I have been writing in my Hunter Chase previews then you will know that I had a theory about Master Sunrise and he is straight back into handicap company at Bangor tomorrow. He showed nothing again at Warwick but Marcle Ridge set a strong pace that day and that wouldn't have helped him. As I mentioned in that preview he went well for a long way at Cheltenham and he clearly still has ability. I think they ran him again at Warwick to get the handicap mark down a bit more as he didn't really have a hope of winning that race and the handicapper duly put him down another 5lbs to a mark of 90. His win last summer was off a mark of 102. I possibly would have liked to have seen him in a 0-100 rather than a 0-110, but they are trying blinkers for the first time and that really interests me. The fact they have gone to different headgear the first time back in a handicap means they mean business. Now clearly he could decide to throw in the towel and he might well finished tailed off again, but based on the Cheltenham run he is capable of winning off this handicap mark. He is also priced up at 28/1 which means it is worth taking a chance at a big price that my theory is correct and that he is on a going day. The yard also run Old Pride who is a single figure price, but he has never really looked like he wants 3m so he doesn't really look like a likely winner to me. So nothing to go overboard about, but at a big price it is worth a go for sure.
  6. So that is it for the season. The incredible strike-rate that I had until about mid April was never going to be kept up and from when I last updated the total on April 14th there was only a very small profit although I must admit I thought it was going to be a loss so I was pleasantly surprised by that fact. The final totals are below and again they are only rough because I know people will have got different prices and some might have BOG and some might not although admittedly BOG isn't something that needs to come into play that often. As I said at the beginning of the season my Hunter Chase stuff is not just about the tips it is about educating people and trying to enhance interest in a part of the sport that a lot know very little about. I also write the previews so people can use what I say as they see fit and I know people have won money by doing different bets to what I have put up based on what I have said. It has been a really enjoyable season and that 3 month spell at the start of the season was something I have never experienced before as almost everything I put up won and when I was in Australia I didn't have a losing race. As good as Hazel Hill was at Cheltenham my performance of the season has to be Risk A Fine's win at Stratford back in April. The way he broke Arthur's Secrets heart and then ended up putting Master Baker under so much pressure he bled was some achievement given how good those two horses are. Friday's performance wasn't far behind either. Obviously Road To Rome's 4 timer deserves a mention and his win in the Walrus at Haydock was a sight to behold. It was also great to see Caid Du Berlais bounce back from his Cheltenham effort to win at Punchestown for the 2nd year running when nothing could get anywhere near him. So thank you everyone who has read, shared or liked my previews this season and I am pleased to say that my previews will be on Punters Lounge again in 2020. I will be popping up before then though as I am sure horses that have been running in points and Hunter Chases this season will be running under rules over the summer and there have been plenty of winners over the years so keep an eye out for those. 2019 stats Total Stakes 204pts Total Returns 278.09pts Total profit 74.09pts
  7. Great to see him win again and it might not even be his last run. I thought they would retire him on the spot but that didn't happen. He made his debut a couple of days before his 5th birthday and won the Punchestown Champion Hunter Chase for the 1st time when he was 5. To still be winning races 9 years later is some feat.
  8. Very annoying, but now just hope On The Fringe goes out on a win.
  9. Thank glad you like them and you certainly chose the right one to be heavily involved with. I have some sad news about Road To Rome as he was badly injured when running in a point last month and from what I was told at the time there is a doubt he will race again.
  10. Regular readers will know I rarely tip up in Irish Hunter Chases and have only put up two this season, both of which have won. Hopefully I can make it a hat-trick on what will be the final bet of the season. It would be great if On The Fringe can win this race for a 2nd year running on what surely will be his final ever race, although given I have been saying for at least 2 years that they should retire him maybe it wont be. As well as he ran last time, I don't think he will win this however as I really like Rewritetherules who is 9 years younger than On The Fringe. He didn't really look like he was up to much until he was a massive gamble to win a Down Royal Hunter Chase at the beginning of last month. He was an impressive winner that day and then 3 days later he went to Tipperary and was even more impressive. Talk after that win was that he would go to Stratford for the John Corbet Cup and he was entered at the 6 day decs, but they obviously decided to stay in Ireland and go for this instead. He looks a promising horse and his trainer has spoken very highly of him. In my view he should be favourite for this and I would be surprised if he didn't start favourite. There doesn't look to be a lot else in the race. All Hell Let Loose has been running consistently well in points this season, but keeps finishing 2nd. Flirting Lesa won the Bishopscourt Cup at the Punchestown Festival, but that is always a very weak affair. So at 5/2 hopefully we can end the season with a winner. Rewritetherules 2pts @ 5/2 with Bet365
  11. Before I get into the races themselves I have to give massive credit to Stratford who provided perfect ground. They have been known to over water for this meeting before and last year was new low on that front. Fair play to the track though for listening and watering enough to make it just on the fast side of good. 5.45 I tried to get Earth Leader beat, but he was different class to his rivals. He has thrived since the tongue-tie went on and he is improving fast. It wouldn't surprise me if Nicholls takes him back as his current mark of 117 is very attractive and given Buck Dancing is rated a 100 at the moment it is hard to see how the handicapper can stick him up too much for this. As at Fontwell Bryan Carver gave him a cracking ride sitting just off a blistering early gallop and once he took up the running he always looked the winner. I initially was a bit critical of Jessica's ride on Buck Dancing, but I was probably being a it harsh. She might well have just making sure he got his confidence back after what happened at Hexham and he jumped much better. She did leave him with too much to do, but to be fair she was trying to catch a very good horse and she got everything else beat. It was good that he finally showed his pointing form under rules. Tangoed was also held up and he ran well on his first chase start under rules. Only 6 and he can find a Hunter Chase next season based on this. It was a much better performance form Chapelier compared to Cheltenham and it gives him something to build on next season. General Arrow and Pancrace went too hard up front with the latter dropping away first and very tamely. General Arrow was headed at 3 out and finished a distant 5th. He ought to have been capable of better and probably needs an easier lead although I doubt he would have won anyway. 6.20 A surprising winner for me here as I didn't fancy Downbythestrand before the race. I saw him win a 2m4f open at Kimble on Easter Saturday and that as well as his other form didn't strike me as a Hunter Chase winner, but to be fair to him he did it well and was always holding Llancillo Lord in 2nd. I suspect it was probably a sharp enough test for the 2nd, but at least he landed some e/w money for us on the race. I can't work out if Net D'Ecosse was unlucky or not. He was left about 8L at the start and the went a blistering pace early so he would have had to work fairly hard to get himself into contention. He was in about 6th jumping the 3rd last as he got himself into contention, but he was then ridden along and looked like he would be out of the frame only for him to stay on again to just get up 3rd beaten just under 10L. The start obviously didn't help, but I just wonder if he wanted a slightly stiffer test of stamina. It was a good run though. Bletchley Castle didn't make a mistake from what I could tell this time around, but I suspect the Huntingdon effort had left a mark. I'd aim him at this race next yer though as it should suit him perfectly. Witness In Court and Red Inca both ran well enough after their Fontwell efforts. Village Vic has been retired after finishing in 8th and ran respectably on his final start. Interestingly Velvet Maker was very strong in the market and was enjoying himself out in front when he stumbled on landing at the 7th. Who knows how he would have done, but given the support I reckon he might have gone close. 6.50 On paper it looked a very weak renewal of the John Corbet Cup and so it turned out in theory as well. I didn't fancy the winner at all, but Law Of Gold was well backed and he did it well to be fair. I think the key was the fact Dale made his move with around a circuit to go and took up the running with a cracking jump at 4 out. The 2nd and 3rd both made their moves later and they weren't able to get to the winner. It was decent enough efforts from Winged Leader and Pink Eyed Pedro though and the latter does seem an improved horse this year. Kalabaloo was a disappointment and either was feeling the effects of the season or that Cheltenham race just fell into her lap. I've got an opened mind. In Arrears would have found the ground quick enough and the main bet Casey Jem didn't jump well enough. He is only 5 though so is one to keep an eye on. 7.20 Meldrum Lad had his form franked by Buck Dancing earlier in the evening and was given a cracking ride by Becky Smith who held her up and didn't panic when Seefood, Brackloon High and Cloudy Joker all kicked for home. She also saved plenty of ground sticking to the inside as the other 3 went very wide into the straight. He was an impressive winner and should be capable of adding to this next season. Virak looked like he would be out of the frame as he got outpaced, but credit to him for getting back up for 2nd. No doubt he will be back next season and he will win more at the right level. Seefood ran well but paid the price for going for home too early in the end. Interestingly he was weaker in the market compared to his stablemate. Cloudy Joker came down at the last and he didn't get high enough and as much as he was in 2nd jumping it, it also seemed a bit of a tired mistake. Still he and Brackloon High ran with credit. 7.50 As much as it was a shame Caid Du Berlais and Top Wood didn't run, we were still treated to a fantastic finish between two very good horses. Sam Waley-Cohen gave the winner a superb ride on a horse who isn't at his best round this track. People seem to want to crab him, but when he has been beaten it is either because he hasn't had his ground or its been here at Stratford where he has actually run with credit the last two years. I think he deserved a win in one of the big ones and on his day he is still one of the leading Hunter Chasers in the country. He will be 12 next year so a drop off in form is surely going to happen at some stage, but hopefully he will be back next season. Caryto Des Brosses is some racehorse. His jumping was a complete joy to watch, but although he looked like he was doing it easily enough I did think he was a little keen. Dale looked behind him leaving the back straight and I wondered if it was a worried look because he knew he didn't have a great deal left in the tank. I have seen some say it was a bad ride and he should have kicked for home sooner, but in my view he would have been beaten further as he was tired. I just wonder if the battle with Hazel Hill had left a mark because he ought to have stayed based on his Cheltenham effort. He will be 8 next season and I at this stage he remains my idea of the Foxhunter winner. He'd be some site at Aintree as well. Asockastar ran with credit again and Chosen Dream never looked like repeating last year's win. 8.20 Speaking of Aintree surely Risk A Fine will be going there next season. He was just superb here and the result was never in doubt. One of my regrets of the season was not backing him when he won over course and distance previously as I really should have done. It is great when you spot a horses potential early in the season as I did with him when I saw him win on his seasonal return and I knew he would be in for a very good season. Back at a flatter track he showed his class and hopefully he is back next season. However I just wonder if connections might consider going to Market Rasen with him for their big race next month as it would really suit him. Road To Riches did briefly threaten coming to 3 out, but as soon as he arrived he was then under pressure again. 8.50 After having the horse I put up in this last year have its chance ruined by nearly coming down round the bend into the back straight it was pretty frustrating for it to happen for the second year running. Hard to be confident about what Feodora would have have done, but she was going well at the time and given how the race panned out I reckon she might have won. Rivercourt Guy was a massive gamble, but was pulled up as was the other bet Petit Petard. I think the form of this is pretty weak as Love Around was hard to fancy despite the fact she won well. I did give a positive mention to Daranova in the preview and he ran well down in trip at 50s. Equss Gold was sent clearly down the back straight and you have to say it was a poor ride as there was no need to kick that early. The rest were miles back. So in the end after all that the preview essentially came out level on the night. It was a really enjoyable night's racing though and I think we saw some good performances as well. That brings the UK season to an end and I did think it was going to be the last tip, but there is to be one more.
  12. Will write a review of the card at some point hopefully tomorrow and round up the season.
  13. Ground on the fast side of good for me
  14. Someone who has walked the track says it is a mixture of good and good to firm so that would suggest they haven't over watered. We won't know for certain until the race on it though, but hopefully that is the case.
  15. Brave Jaq is a non runner in race 2 so I am going to add Net D'Ecosse to the bets and make the following the bets now. Bletchley Castle 1pt e/w @ 13/2 with Betfair and Paddy Power Llancillo Lord 0.75pts e/w @ 8/1 with William Hill and Betfair Net D'Ecosse 1pt @ 5/1 with Bet 365 and most others