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Darran

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Darran last won the day on October 28 2023

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About Darran

  • Birthday 08/26/1982

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  1. Amazing result and one I didn't think was going to happen, certainly not as quickly as it has.
  2. I have got Tony Calvin to mention it in the Betfair podcast today.
  3. That is shocking. I will see what I can do. I had many interactions with Graham in the last year or so of his life and the fact that this has been done by people he trusted to set it up in his honour is disgraceful
  4. That is very kind of you mate. The charity will be thrilled.
  5. Some brief thoughts for today. Eastleigh v Rochdale I think we were a bit unlucky with Woking on Tuesday night and I am happy to take Rochdale on again with Eastleigh who I think can get back to winning ways here. York v Aldershot As we know Aldershot aren't always trustworthy away from home, but they are better than York who were hammered 5-1 on Tuesday night at Altrincham. Their fans already want the new manager to go and hopefully it is an away win. Darlington v Peterborough Sports Happy to go with Darlington again at a shade of odds on as they continue to look a much better side than their league position suggests. Kings Lynn v Rushall Olympic I'm surprised the home side aren't odds on here to be honest and they rate a confident selection. Dartford v Maidstone A local derby which always adds a hint of caution, but Dartford continue to be in dreadful form and Maidstone are much better than them. They should be odds on for me. Hemel Hempstead v Hampton & Richmond Hemel have got Dartford's old manager in, but they continue to be poor and Hampton have found their form again. Prices from 9am Saturday Eastleigh 1pt @ 8/5 with SKybet and BetVictor (take up to 5/4) Aldershot 1pt @ 13/10 with most bookies (take up to 11/10) Darlington 2pts @ 10/11 with wiyth most bookies (take up to 4/5) Kings Lynn 4pts @ 13/10 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair and BetVictor (take up to 5/6) Maidstone 2.5pts @ 23/20 with Bet365, Betfred, Skybet and BetVictor (take up to 10/11) Hampton & Richmond 2pts @ 11/8 with most bookies (take up to 11/10)
  6. The original link I put up for the charity doesn’t work anymore so here is one where you can donate direct to the charity https://fundraising.smallsteps.org.uk/donation/donate
  7. 55 minutes after the Cheltenham race we have the Fakenham hunter chase and it looks a really interesting contest. Knight In Dubai actually went to a couple of Cheltenham Festivals when he beat one home in Samcro's Ballymore win and the year after he was 13th in the Coral Cup. He's not won under rules since December 2019 although he's not had that many goes since then and he was going close off 130 last season. He's gone to James Owen's wife's yard and he has won both starts in points at Horseheath this year. His form under rules was over shorted than 3m, but Horseheath is a fair test so he ought to see it out round here. He had his stablemate Grand Roi in behind him in the first win which gives us a bit of basis for the form, but as he proved again on Monday, he's a hard horse to win with. He won easier in the 2nd start, but this should be a tougher test. He does get weight from every other horse in the race and he can win, but I think I am happy enough to look elsewhere. I am a big fan of Rebel Dawn Rising and he has been a bit unlucky not to add to his Leicester hunter chase win a couple of years ago. He made his seasonal reappearance in this race last year and whilst I'm not sure he would have beaten Bennys King, he never got a chance to because he was brought down at the 7th. On Easter Monday he was set to beat Janika and Firak over course and distance until he ran around on the run to the last fence and unseated Dale as he took off. I thought he ran with great credit behind Premier Magic at Cheltenham as he gave it a good go, but he just didn't stay and finishing within 17L of him over 3m2f is a top effort. Clearly 3m round here is fine and he has won first up before. He also wont mind what the weather does as it could rain before the race gets underway. I'm very surprised Firak is out again after Leicester. He ran way below par here on Easter Monday and it looked like he just didn't handle the track. He more than likely wouldn't have won last week, but the hampering at 3 out meant he didn't get the chance to put the winner under pressure. My issue is though is he never looked like he was going all that well and that's the main reason I'm surprised he's out again. So whilst I think he has the ability to win the fact he didn't seem to handle the track, has around 20L to turn around with Rebel Dawn Rising, and he looked to have a hard race last week means I am happy to take him on. Ed Turner's horses tend to always come on for a run or two so the fact Janika pulled up behind Fier Jaguen at Garthorpe on his return last month is no real surprise. The problem is he was 12L behind Rebel Dawn Rising at Garthorpe last March and would have been behind him again if he had jumped the last on Easter Monday. He wouldn't be for me. Dan Skelton has links to 3 horses in this race as he also used to train Shentri. He had been off the track since July 2022 before make his pointing debut at Higham last month. Higham wouldn't be that dissimilar to Fakenham so the track should suit. Whilst he didn't get as high as Knight In Dubai in the ratings, he is only 7 so could be open to improvement and crucially he was very impressive when winning at Higham. He bolted up by 20L there and the time was the quickest of the day. He was quicker than The Big Lense on the same card despite carrying 7lbs more so that makes it a really good effort for me. I guess we have to consider the bounce factor, but more of a concern might be if it rains as has pretty much only run on good ground. Given Chief Black Robe couldn't win a maiden point last season it was quite something that a move to Fergal O'Brien's saw him win 4 handicaps on the bounce. He started off of a mark of 88 and his 4th win was off 115. He then went to the Summer Plate at Market Rasen and finished 4th before getting beat at 2/5 at Newton Abott in September. Back with his owner/rider now he returned at Ampton last month and was 3rd of 4 beaten 13L. I don't think you can completely rule him out given the 4th at Market Rasen, but you do get the feeling that maybe Fergal had a fair bit to with the improvement. All of them have some sort of chance, but I am happy enough to take back Rebel Dawn Rising and Shentri against the field. I think Rebel Dawn Rising is the best horse in the race and as much as he has to give race fitness away, the fact he's won 1st up before and wasn't unfancied to beat Bennys King in this last year, I think that won't be an issue. I want Shentri onside as well because I think that win at Higham is the best recent form of the season and if it isn't too soft for him he ought to go close. Rebel Dawn Rising 2pts @ 7/4 with Bet365 (take up to 11/8) Shentri 1pt @ 9/1 with Bet365 (take up to 5/1)
  8. As per last year if you have found my preview helpful I am looking to raise money for a small charity called Small Steps who have really helped with my youngest son. It really doesn't matter how small the donation as all money is vital for such a small charity who do great things for disabled children. https://www.justgiving.com/page/amanda-pearce-1686595602869?newPage=true
  9. Here is my full in-depth preview for the race on Friday. A smaller field than usual this year, but class wise I think it is up to scratch and it promises to be a good renewal. As ever hopefully I can point you in the way of the winner, but the main reason for the preview is that it provides you with the most in-depth preview on the race you will find and it provides you with the information to also come up with your own mind. Billaway - You can't knock his record in the race having finished 2nd, 2nd, 1st and then fell at the 10th in the last 4 renewals. Given the rest of his form last season you have to think he would have been involved in the finish if he had got round. His jumping hasn't always been great though and that did finally tell last year and he also unseated at Punchestown. He bounced back from that to beat Vaucelet to win a decent pot at Downpatrick in May. He made his seasonal return later than usual this season and he has a terrible first time out record so I wasn't surprised to see him well behind in 3rd as they turned for home at Naas, but then as Its On The Line idled he railed strongly and it was no surprise that he traded very short in running as he looked like he was going to win. In the end Its On The Line picked up when he got to him and won by a head, but it was still a very good run. I just wonder that given he was having his prep later than usual if he was further forward than he usually is 1st up. I'm not sure he can win it again, but given his record in the race and the fact he ran so well last time suggests to me that if he gets round he isn't going to be far away at the finish. D'Jango - Was one of the Judith Wilson owned horses that David Pipe trained who used to run what seemed like every week and he was rated just 100 over fences when picked up by new connections. Not surprisingly he went off a massive price for the opening hunter chase of the season, but he massively outran his odds when finishing a length 2nd to the very promising mare Regatta De Blanc. That horse has franked the form since as has the 3rd Bennys King and Shantou Flyer was behind in 5th. He then stayed on very strongly at Warwick to overhaul Tea Clipper after the last and they had pulled well clear of the others. He was possibly a little disappointing in the Walrus at Haydock last time when a fairly well beaten 4th behind Spyglass Hill, but it was really testing ground that day and I'm not sure he was totally in love with it. The handicapper has put him up 29lbs since he went hunter chasing and I think that is fair enough given the form he has shown. We know he stays well and the ground is clearly going to better than Haydock so whilst I doubt he will win, I think he can run well and finish in the top half. Ferns Lock - There were 3 horses I saw last season who really impressed me and Ferns Lock was one of them. His wins at Fairyhouse where he beat Its On The Line and at Thurles where he beat Billaway were hugely impressive. Lots wanted him to go to Cheltenham on the back of that, but I thought they were right to give him more time as he needed more experience. He went to Gowran Park instead and although he won hard held his jumping wasn't quite as good as it had been and backed up my thinking that he needed another year. He was then surprisingly beaten at Fairyhouse when Annamix picked up the pieces after Ferns Lock and Billaway got racing from a fair way out. That run though did make me think that maybe his stamina wasn't quite what he needed to be to win this race. This season he returned at Dromahane and beat a useful field with ease. He then went to Down Royal and looked like he was going to win again having seen off the challenge of Ramillies, but he had no response to the fast finishing Its On The Line who beat him by 0.5L. That performance really set off the alarm bells about his stamina for 3m2f around Cheltenham. He bounced back to winning ways by beating a stablemate of Its On The Line with ease at Thurles. What was interesting though was that Ruby Walsh said after the race that he looks an Aintree horse not a Cheltenham horse and I completely agree with him. Even his trainer has come out and said he thinks he might be more of an Aintree horse. If he goes to Aintree I think he will be very hard to beat. On the whole he jumps well and he enjoys being out in front, but although he's not overly keen he is free running and I think at this stage of his career he just does a bit too much to win this race. The one thing in his favour on that front though is the smaller field than usual as he might get away with a bit of a freebie up front which wouldn't have been the case with a full field. My thinking is there is a strong chance of him being in front at the last, but that he will having nothing for the run-in and at least something will outstay him. The other thing to note is he is unlikely to get left alone on the front end and as we saw at Fairyhouse that isn't going to help him either. I suspect he is the best horse in the race ability wise and that he's better than a hunter chaser and if he did happen to stay he wins, but I don't think he will stay so am happy to take him on. From The Heart - Has shown form that suggests he could win a hunter chase at some point, but nothing in his form suggests he can get anywhere near to winning this and his massive price reflects his chances. Its On The Line - The horse I have thought would be the winner since he beat Ferns Lock at Down Royal on Boxing Day. Was a fast finishing 2nd to Premier Magic last year when having the cheekpieces on for the first time. Jumping 2 out you wouldn't have given him any hope of reaching the frame as he was looking pretty laboured and then all of a sudden late on his flying home and had clearly got going too late. He then fell at Aintree, but pretty much made all to win at Punchestown. He did race lazily that night, but what I liked was he kept finding for Derek and whilst Vaucelet had travelled better, he just couldn't get past him and a mistake at the last made no difference to the result for me. It was a bit of a surprise to see him run again in another point a couple of weeks later and finished 2nd to Rocky's Howya and both horses had long succesful seasons. This season he's 3/3. He won a point in November and then went to Down Royal when outstaying Its On The Line. Over 2f further I just don't see how the form can be reversed. We know Its On The Line is all about stamina and even if he gets outpaced we know he's highly likely to be finishing best of all. Onto that dramatic race at Naas where he first of all went toe to toe with Ramillies and once he saw him off at the last he then started to idle and Billaway came from nowhere looking like he was going to go straight pass him, but as soon as he got to Its On The Line he picked up again and he was a head in front at the line. For a horse to do that having gone hard in testing ground just shows he clearly had plenty left and that when it matters he will fight. I doubt he is going to be left in front here, but to be fair he has also shown he is hard to pass once he gets in front anyway even if he is. The trainer has said he will be putting the cheekpieces back on so that should bring about a little bit more as well. It could be argued that why should he beat Premier Magic based on last year's run, but I think he's improved and I doubt Premier Magic has given he is now 11. Clearly 7yos don't have a good recent record in the race, but he has a different profile to most good ones who have tired as we know he will stay and that he has the class to win. I think a fair few younger horses who have tried just haven't stayed which isn't a concern with him. The softer the ground the better as it will test turn it into more of a test, but it was decent ground when he won at Punchestown so it isn't crucial. JP has no doubt paid a few quid for him last week and I suspect he might well have next years Grand National in mind as much as this contest. He is the one they all have to beat. Premier Magic - I was put off his chances for this race last year because of the way he ran in the race in 2022. He looked like he hated every second of it before pulling up and knowing that Brad wanted to run Highway Jewel instead it put me off backing him despite thinking he had the ability to run well. In 2022 he was on the inside, so Brad decided to ride him on the outside and it worked a treat. He was always going well and took the lead at 2 out before always holding the fast finishing Its On The Line. Somehow he recorded a higher RPR when winning on hunter chase night on his next start, but he beat a non stayer in Rebel Dawn Rising and the rest of the field were a poor bunch in the context of this race. He definitely achieved more winning this. This season he has won both his starts at Sheriff Hutton and Brocklesby Park. The issue I have though is neither of those efforts told us anything apart from he has four legs still. The 2nd and 3rd at Sheriff Hutton have both been stuffed in hunter chases recently and he was 1/10 at Brocklesby. There was certainly more depth to his wins prior to last year's race. I'm not saying for a second that he couldn't be another duel winner, but you are guessing how much ability he still retains because the two runs have told us nothing. He's now 11 and my thinking is that Its On The Line has improved so he will have to have done as well. He seems about the right price at this stage. The cheekpieces which he wore for both Cheltenham wins last season and have been missing this season go back on here. Quintin's Man - We know the course and distance will hold no fears for him as he bolted up to win the Intermediate Final on hunter chase night last year. You can pick holes in that form, but it was still an impressive performance. He then went to Stratford for the John Corbet Cup and he hated the experience and never really looked happy at any stage. He started off the season with a couple of 3rds which didn't look overly hopeful, although the second of them at Chipley Park has worked out well. He certainly stepped up on those efforts at Wincanton when beaten a useful field in taking style. Lalor was 2nd there and Paul Nicholls tried to get him qualified for this, but he was only 4th at Taunton. I wouldn't have that effort knock the form because the race would have come soon enough and it was a hot race. Quintin's Man went to Haydock for the Walrus and whilst the trip was on the short side for him my thinking was the bottomless ground would make it such a test of stamina that it would be ideal for him. He did get himself outpaced though in the home straight, but I still thought he was going to win jumping the last, but I just wonder if the effort of getting to the 1st and 2nd paid on the run-in and he ended up in 3rd. I think he needs soft ground to be seen at his best and we know he stays well so he wouldn't be the worst outsider in the race. Ramillies - Surprised that he is even running in this given the way he ran at Gowran Park on Saturday. He was legless after the last behind Its On The Line before that and I struggle to see him staying. Samcro - Good old Samcro finally gets his chance to run in this race as he didn't qualify for hunter chases in the UK last year. A duel Festival winner and no doubt the horse that people will get excited about because on his old form he's easily the best horse in the race. He got up to a mark of 160 over fences and 163 over hurdles and there will be those out there who will presume that means he should win this. If he was still capable of running to anywhere near those marks though he wouldn't be hunter chasing. One day no doubt a horse with his sort of profile will win the race again, but horses like him just don't win this race anymore. If he had been able to run in teh race last year I'd have given him more of a chance as he won 3 points by 30L twice and 32L the other time. This season he looks to have gone backwards as he won by just 2.5L first time up, albeit snugly, and then last month he was only 3rd at Belharbour behind Lifetime Ambition. I thought he looked quite laboured in the finish that day and whilst the winner is apparently going to be aimed at Aintree it didn't look a performance of a horse who was going to be good enough to win this. My other concern is how he will fare going back under rules because he had really lost his way and he always had his quirks anyway. 9 of the last 10 winners of this have had to run to an RPR of 141 to win and I have big doubts about him running to that level anymore. He's a single figure price, but he should be around 25/1 for me. Also as much as he did win twice at The Festival he was also pulled up in the Ryanair the last time he ran here. Shantou Flyer - Has an incredible record at Cheltenham having won twice, finished 2nd 5 times and 3rd 3 times in his 13 starts round here. His record at the Festival reads fell in the National Hunt Chase in 2016, 2nd beaten a neck in the Ultima of 2018, 2nd in the 2019 Foxhunter, 3rd in the 2020 Foxhunter, 3rd in the 2021 Kim Muir and 3rd in last years race 3L behind Premier Magic. That is some record and it would be no surprise if he was to run a huge race yet again. He was in really good form last season as he won hunter chases in really good style at Exeter and Stratford and the 2nd in the 4m race on hunter chase night was good because he just doesn't stay that far (had been 5th the year before in that contest). This season he won on his return at Larkhill and then was 5th in the opening hunter chase of the season behind Regatta De Blanc when he tried to keep up with Bennys King at the head of the race and they both went too quick. That trip would have been short enough in a race of that quality as well. He had his prep at Charlton Horethorne on Sunday where he actually won 2 races because he walked over in the hunt race before winning the Mixed Open beating Singapore Saga by a comfortable 3L. It would be some effort for him to finally win at the Cheltenham Festival at the age of 14, but some bookies will be offering extra places (probably down to 8 at least) and he would look a fair e/w bet taking the lower odds and extra places. To be honest a top 4 finish at normal odds might well show a return given his record at the meeting and Cheltenham overall. Time Leader - Joe O'Shea has had a knack of improving horses by stones over the years and this was another one. When he started hunter chasing he was rated 90 and he is now up to 128 and even that mark might under estimate him. He won twice at Leicester and Stratford last year, before surprisingly running just 6 days later in the mud at Carlisle over 3m which looked very unsuitable for him and so it proved as he pulled up. He then ran a massive race in the Aintree Foxhunters when staying on well to finish 5th 6.25L behind Famous Clermont. He made a bad mistake at the Chair that day and without it he would have gone closer. After that he won at Kelso and at Cartmel where he beat Gaboriot by 12L over just over 3m1f. That gives a hint that he might be capable of staying the trip here and whilst the 2nd as improved since it still gives a bit of value to the form given he has won 3 times this season. You will notice that Hannah Roach now trains him, but don't be fooled as Joe is very much still involved and he made a winning return before getting stuck in the mud at Chaddesley Corbett in December. It was no surprise he bounced back at Hereford in January and he won with loads in hand. The better the ground the better his chance because he doesn't seem to handle it testing and it wouldn't help his stamina either. If it is no worse than good to soft though it wouldn't surprise me if he went close, but the weather suggests that is unlikely to happen now. Sine Nomine - I have been slow to warm to her because you have always been able to pick all sorts of holes in her rules form, but after her win at Wetherby I think it is just a case of her being a very good horse. She made her rules debut in the Intermediate Final on hunter chase night a couple of years ago and she jumped terribly although was still able to finish 3rd albeit a well beaten one. Last season she had 3 point starts before going to Stratford where she was foot perfect and beat Kaproyale easily. Now I wondered if she was the only one who liked the ground (the favourite didn't) and Kaproyale is better over shorter so I my thinking was she was the only one to have conditions to suit. She then went back to hunter chase night here and ran in the mares race and was beaten by Miss Seagreen. She travelled really well and looked the winner for a long way, but was just over hauled late on. She then went to Stratford for the John Corbet Cup which she won again after traveling strongly. The problem is the form isn't very strong with the 2nd having been stuffed in handicaps off marks in the low 100s since. First time out this season she was beaten at Alnwick in the mud by Wagner who whilst he has been a winning machine this season wouldn't be a fancy in this so again I wasn't overly strong on her going into Wetherby. On the face of it you could say she has beaten a non stayer in Bennys King, a horse who has needed his first two runs in Windsor Avenue and the favourite Fairly Famous hated the ground so again you can pick holes in the form. However she's travelled all over Bennys King for most of the home straight and therefore if the race had been over say 2m6f Sine Nomine still would have won. Given Bennys King form this season has been exceptional I think this effort is probably the best run from a British trained horse this season. I think she is at her best with a bit of cut in the ground and she is such a strong traveller whatever the conditions. There are two minor worries I have though. First of all her two worse runs under rules have both come at Cheltenham but the first was down to inexperience and I think she will be better off in a bigger field and truly run race which she didn't get last May. Secondly there has to be a small concern about her seeing out the trip given that defeat her last year. I know she won over further at Stratford, but it was a slowly run race and not a test at all. Secret Investor was 22 seconds quicker whilst carrying 7lbs more which shows how slow it was run. Maybe she might be one of these younger horses how doesn't quite see it out, but difference is she is a double figure price and she should be shorter. Verdict - So we are going to have the smallest field for some time and I think the real reason for that is the lack of total no hopers in the race. As much as I am happy to take certain horses on, you can only say that From The Heart doesn't have any chance of winning the race. If you haven't backed Its On The Line yet I do think there is some juice in the price. He's the most likely winner for me and given the weather forecast it does look like its going to be on the softer side which isn't going to help Ferns Lock stamina. What will help him though is the smaller field as he might just get an easier time on the front end than I originally thought before the 6 day decs. Sine Nomine is clear 2nd choice for me and I am happy to back her now. If there are only 13 runners then we might not see many, if any, bookies go 4 places and I think her price might come in. I think she has the best British form this season coming into the race as that Wetherby run was a top class effort. Those two slight concerns I mention in her profile are more than factored into the price for me and I think she should be a single figure price. If Premier Magic is in the same form as last year then clearly he is going to go close, but it is impossible to know if he is or not based on his two point runs this season and he's the right sort of price at the moment. Billaway's record in the race means he must be respected and again looks the right sort of price. I couldn't put anyone off backing either though if you fancy them. The final bet to be added is Quintin's Man. Conditions are certainly going to be in his favour and he is an out and out stayer so I certainly want him on side. If it had dried out more then I would have put Time Leader up, but conditions don't look like being ideal for him and that will put an extra test on his stamina. Bet365 have a 6 place market and couldn't put anyone off throwing a few quid at Shantou Flyer in that market given his record at Cheltenham. Bets given on Monday Its On The Line 3pts @ 5/2 with Bet365 (take up to 15/8) Sine Nomine 1pt e/w @ 16/1 with Bet365, William Hill and Betfred (take up to 10/1) Bet added on Thursday Quintin's Man 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 with Bet365, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 16/1)
  10. Granted Cheltenham is obviously going to take most of the focus, but Tuesday also sees the start of the Australian jumps season at Warrnambool and I am back to cover the season for the 5th time. It has been 2 very profitable years and a couple of small losses. What started as something to focus on during Covid has turned into a real passion. All being well I should be taking in the all jumps card at Pakenham next month on my visit to Australia and I can't wait to see some of these horses in the flesh. Right onto Warrnambool and we have 3 races an Open Hurdle, a Maiden Hurdle and an Open Steeple. Race 1 There is actually a Cheltenham link in this first race as Crosshill featured in races against Galopin Des Champs and Gentlemansgame among others when trained by Jessie Harrington. He ran a couple of promising races at Pakenham and in the Grand Annual last year and whilst he did go on to win a maiden on the flat his other jumps starts weren't great. He hasn't run over hurdles in Australia, but his last run in Ireland was a win over hurdles at the Punchestown Festival so he's very capable. He's trialed well and ran a respectable race on the flat last month. He does have to give weight away to the very short price fav here though. Teofilo Star ran in 3 hurdles last year and after finishing 2nd at Pakenham he broke his maiden tag over course and distance in May. He impressed that day and he was even more impressive 3 weeks later at Sandown in a BM120 when winning by 15L. He went back on the flat after that and whilst he was well beaten in the Brisbane Cup he did when a BM100 at Flemington just before. He's not run in a race since, but won his last hurdles trial. Serenade The Stars was behind Crosshill in the trial at Terang last week. He won the first maiden hurdle of the season last year and was then 2nd in his other 2 hurdle starts. He will be fit from the flat. If Crosshill could run to his Irish form he would be over priced, but I don't think he's been quite up to that level and Teofilo Star looks a potential top notcher over hurdles this season and he ought to win as his odds suggest although 1/14 is very short. Its a race to watch. Race 2 Only 2 of these have raced over hurdles and Buffalo Bill has had 20 goes without. That clearly makes things tricky especially as none of these have raced at that high a level on the flat. Tarn's Prince is the favourite and he trialed well against some useful horses last week at Terang. I am though going to take a chance on Elementry. Very unusual for top connections to send a horse over hurdles after just one flat run, which granted was awful. He won his 2nd hurdles trial here and beat Antequera into 2nd place. He seemed to enjoy jumping and his jockey seemed keen to try and teach him how to race. He's been very well backed which whilst annoying in one way does add to the confidence that he's going to go very well. Elementry 1pt @ 7/2 with William Hill Race 3 There can't be many horses that have run in the Arc and then won a steeplechase, but Nelson has done that having been behind Enable in the Arc and then winning a chase at Coleraine last August. He could win this, but he is very short for me and there could be value elsewhere. Police Camp is very experienced and was 2nd at a big price in the Grand Annual last year which was actually his last run. I suspect he will need this. Mighty Oasis caused a huge shock when he won the Thackeray over course and distance beating the Grand Annual winner Rockstar Ronnie. He had been 2nd in this race last year and he usually runs his race. Instigator has been a solid hurdler and is making his chasing debut here. He had one steeple trial here and it was OK. I want to see him in a race though before backing him. Yulong Prince showed some decent form when last seen over fences in 2022. He won a couple over fences including over course and distance and was 2nd to Flying Agent, who was superb that year, in a couple of the big races. Clearly he's been injured since, but he ran in a Picnic (Aussie version of point to point but on the flat) race a couple of weeks ago and then trialed well last week at Terang. I'm certain we will have some better punting cards in during the rest of the season, but I will have a couple of small bets on Mighty Oasis and Yulong Prince as I think they are over priced and we might just get Nelson beat. Yulong Prince 0.5pts @ 17/2 with William Hill Mighty Oasis 0.5pts @ 7/1 with Bet356
  11. Banbury v Southport When Banbury first changed their manager they perked up and won a couple of games and drew against Chester. Since then though they have been dreadful and have lost 5 on the bounce conceding 3 on three occasions and 2 the other couple. It is looking like they will go down and they deserved to lose against Rushall on Tuesday night. Southport have picked up in recent weeks as well. They had expected losses to Chorley and Hereford in their last 6 games, but they have beaten Brackley, Scarborough and Warrington (who they beat 3-0 on Tuesday night) as well as drawing against Peterborough. Those points picked up have been crucial to seeing them try and pull away from the relegation zone. If these two continue in the form they have been then the away side are too big. Blyth Spartans v Kings Lynn Another side who look like they will stay up now are Kings Lynn and they have had just one defeat in their last 8 games and are unbeaten in 6. They had a good win last Saturday when they beat South Sheilds 3-1. They travel to a Blyth side who are in desperate form having only picked up 2 points in their last 8 games. They will be looking nervously over their shoulders with the likes of Kings Lynn chasing them down and I like the look of an away win here. Gloucester v Boston Typical of my own team to go and prove me wrong a couple of weeks ago when managing to get a win over Scarborough. We still look set for relegation, but I think we were able to take advantage of a Scarborough side who are in desperate form at the moment. Whilst Boston have been picking up more points they are now 3 without a win and they have lost their last 2. The draw was against Blyth and they lost to Buxton and Spennymoor which suggests to me that Gloucester might be able to get a result. The key thing for me is Boston aren't defending all that well and with Theo Robinson scoring goals for the home side I think there is a chance of a home win. Spennymoor v Darlington I watched Darlington against Southport and Banbury after putting them up in both games and they were awful both times. The difference between then and having watched them beat Scunthorpe 4-0 on Tuesday night was staggering. Steve Watson has done a hell of a job and they will stay up now. They have won 4 on the bounce and 5 of their last 6. In those 6 games they have scored 16 times and conceded just 5. Now this will be far from a gimmie as Spennymoor have turned their season around as well. They are unbeaten in 6 and won 5 of those. It is also just 1 defeat in 9. However Darlington are way over priced for this and hopefully they can land this local derby. Prices from Wednesday 7pm Southport 2pts @ 8/5 with Paddy Power, Betfred and Betfair (Hills and Skybet are massive stand outs at 2/1 and take up to 5/4) Kings Lynn 2pts @ 7/4 with Betfred (Skybet and Hills are massive stand outs at 21/10 and take up to 6/5) Gloucester 1pt @ 2/1 with 2/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Betfred and Bet365 (Sky are 11/5 and take up to 7/4) Darlington 2pts @ 14/5 with Skybet, Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 15/8
  12. Sorry I can't help you then I'm afraid. It's not something I look for very often to be honest.
  13. Boreham Wood v AFC Fylde The only team to have beaten Fylde in their last 9 games was Barnet last week and they played well in that game despite losing 4-2. They were 2 up on Tuesday against Solihull, but they ended up drawing. Solihull and Barnet are much better than Boreham Wood though and they have not really convinced all season so with Fylde in such good form I am happy to take them to pick up 3 more points here. Southend v Aldershot Aldershot are a bizarre side. They can be really bad, as they were when Fylde hammered them recently, but they then beat two of the best sides in the league in Altrincham and Barnet. They only beat Barnet 1-0 on Tuesday, but it should have been more and they kept Barnet very quiet. I took on Southend on Tuesday and they did deserve the win. They score their first 2 goals for a while as well so that does give them a bit of a boost. A lot depends on which Aldershot turns up, but 3/1 will look very big if they are at their best. Gloucester v Scarborough Apart from a 0-0 draw against Scunthorpe, Scarborough have been struggling for points recently. The great news for them though is they get to play a Gloucester side who seem to have given up the ghost and are waiting for relegation to happen. They didn't manage a shot on target on Tuesday against Buxton and only really had one serious chance in the match. The vast majority of fans already think they are down, I get the feeling the manager thinks they are down and it really does look a great chance for the away side to get back to winning ways. Hampton & Richmond v Farnborough As I mentioned in the Torquay preview, Farnborough should have beaten them on Tuesday night and it was frustrating they couldn't find a goal. I am however going to take them on today. They have really struggled away from home all season and I am surprised that they have gone favourites to beat Hampton. At home they are 9 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats and away they are 2 wins, 5 draws and 9 defeats. Hampton have mainly bounced back from their blip and only Aveley have beat them in their last 4. Beating Weymouth 4-2 on Tuesday was a decent effort and they have been strong at home all season. Bognor Regis v Potters Bar (Isthmian Premier) Bognor have still to lose at home in the league, but their last two results have been a draw with Cheshunt and a loss to Kingstonian and they are two of the worst sides in the league. Potters Bar have done us quite a few favours this season and they are over priced to win this game. Acca Having a look at the fixtures today there were 5 that stood out where teams really ought to win. Chesterfield and Gateshead look bankers at home to Rochdale and Oxford City respectively. At Step 3 Coalville should get the better of Berkhamstead, Chesham host Poole and should be able to give them another defeat and Dulwich continue in strong form and host a struggling Cheshunt. Prices from 6pm Friday night AFC Fylde 1pt @ 15/8 with Bet365 (take up to 6/4) Aldershot 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power, Betfred and Coral (take up to 9/4) Scarborough 2pts @ 11/10 with everyone (take up to 10/11) Hampton 1pt @ 8/5 with Skybet and Betfred (take up to 11/8) Potters Bar 1pt @ 100/30 with Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 9/4) Chesterfield/Gateshead/Coalville/Chesham/Dulwich 1pt acca @ 3.9/1 with Bet365
  14. I think there is a page on the FA website.
  15. I will start the update with a bit of an apology as I haven't been keeping this as up to date as I usually do and a lot has happened in the last month or so since I last updated things. Lets start with the current market leader for the race Ferns Lock who had a very easy success at Thurles a few days after the previous update. It was an OK field (Romeo Magico was 2nd) and he did it in the style of a classy horse. My first thought though was that he should skip Cheltenham and go to Aintree. He is a keen, free going sort and he is highly unlikely to be gifted an easy lead at Cheltenham. I mentioned after Down Royal that he might struggle to stay 3m2f at this stage of his career and this performance backed up that thought. What was really interesting was after the race on Racing TV Ruby Walsh also said he should go to Aintree and not Cheltenham. Then a couple of weeks ago his trainer also said that Aintree would be more his cup of tea, but they may as well give Cheltenham a go. As I have mentioned before his owner has backed him for Cheltenham and I just wonder if he hadn't if he would even be going for the race. I think he is the best horse in the race and he could run in better races than hunter chases, but I'm going to be bold and say at least one other will outstay him. I'd even be tempted to place lay him on the day for a low risk lay as I sort of think he might either win or really paddle after the last and more than a couple go past him. Christie also said that Ferns Lock is a better horse than Winged Leader and Vaucelet. I get the feeling neither of those two will be heading to Cheltenham, but he did have plans to send Ramillies to The Festival if he ran well at Naas next time. As it turned out though he just looked a non stayer again so it would seem a bit pointless to run him. He made most of the running alongside Billaway to start with and then Its On The Line from about half-way. Jumping the last the pair of them were still upsides, but Its On The Line started to pull away. Then the drama happened as Billaway came from miles back to look as if he was going to go straight pass Its On The Line only for him to pick up again and stay in front. The 7yo was racing pretty lazily for a fair way of the race and whilst the ground was clearly testing I don't think the horse was tired at all. The fact he picked up again once Billaway got to him proved to me he was just idling on the run-in and wanted some company. He will have plenty of company at Cheltenham and we know he stays all day. I put on Twitter before the race that I had backed him for Cheltenham and I still think he is the most likely winner right now. Billaway ran probably his best ever race 1st up as usually he struggles on his first run of the season. I have seen a suggestion that maybe Willie had him straighter this year because he was making his first run later than usual. He fell in this last year and unseated at Punchestown, but his form around that suggests he is still more than capable of playing a part in the finish. It was no surprise to see Hitak pushed out to as big as 33/1 as he never got involved at all. He must be a doubtful runner now. What I hadn't spotted was that Its On The Line has been entered in the Grand National and that led Robbie Wilders of the Racing Post to tip him up in one of their shows on Saturday. He thought that he was going to win easy at Naas, then win at Cheltenham before going to Aintree for the National. The only problem being that is impossible because as soon as you run in a British hunter chase you can't run in a non hunter chase until after the hunter chase season ends. I suspect Mullins doesn't know this either because it would appear to be a waste of money otherwise. It would not surprise me though if he did run in a National at some point. Also entered in the Grand National is Samcro and he ran at the start of the month and was only 3rd to Lifetime Ambition, a horse who is being aimed at the Aintree Foxhunters. So not a bad run, but it just highlighted to me what his win in November did and that is he is on the downgrade. He's as short as 13/2 (Bet365) and he could be triple that price and I still wouldn't want to back him. Famous Clermont won a match at 1/10 at Larkhill last month. He looks set to bid to retain his Walrus crown at Haydock at the weekend, but as I've said all along he looks set to skip Cheltenham to focus on Aintree. Time Leader also looks set to go to Haydock and he was a good winner at Hereford last month. Again though I'd be surprised if he went to Cheltenham before Aintree. Premier Magic also won at 1/10 on Saturday at Brocklesby. It was a very slow time so they clearly went no pace and essentially both wins this season have only told us that he is fit and healthy. I certainly think you couldn't rule him out becoming another dual winner of the race, but it is impossible to know if he is still good enough based on the two runs this year. Rocky's Howya has still not been sighted and that has to be a concern about him running in the race. I always say that it's very hard to back something ante-post for this race before you know it is well because you rarely get to see quotes about the runners. Secret Investor is entered at Fakenham on Friday, but again the trainer has so far said he will skip Cheltenham. Tea Clipper has run twice since the last update and whilst I could give him a pass on the Warwick 2nd the 3rd at Ludlow was a shocker. I think he's better than that, but now he's unlikely to qualify for Cheltenham and sights will need to be lowered. Two British trained pointers have won hunter chases and could go to Cheltenham are Sine Nomine and Quintin's Man. The former ran out an easy winner at Wetherby and whilst you can pick all sorts of holes in her form the fact is we just don't know how good she actually is yet. The well backed favourite Fairly Famous hated the ground and pulled up and the 2nd Bennys King isn't a true stayer at the trip. Like I say though she is clearly a good and the softer the ground next month the better her chance will be. Quintin's Man beat Lalor at Wincanton in good style which was a return to form after a couple of poor efforts pointing this season. He stays and handles the track so could easily run a solid race if they went down this route. He's also in at Haydock on Saturday. One of the big point races of the season is the Coronation Gold Cup at Larkhill and it saw a tremendous finish which saw Grace A Vous Enki and Regatta De Blanc dead heat. I mentioned the former in my last update as he had been impressing in points and this was another top effort. I'd imagine the plan with the latter would still be Cheltenham in May rather than Cheltenham in March. Finally Fier Jaguen made his seasonal return at Garthorpe and won with ease. What is worrying about him though is he jumped out to his right still despite it being a right handed track. I'd imagine Aintree would be more likely than Cheltenham. To sum it all up I still think Its On The Line is the most likely winner at this stage. I doubt his price is likely to change that much now between now and the race, but if you are looking for ante-post multi's I would be sticking him in. NB - Winged Leader was only 3rd in a point on Saturday and that suggest he continues to be on the downgrade and wont be heading to Cheltenham. Also still no entries for Rocky's Howya.
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