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Darran last won the day on April 9

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About Darran

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    Non League Punter
  • Birthday 08/26/1982

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  1. It was a shame the selection was a non-runner, but it was always a possibility. The favourite won fairly comfortably in the end although Charlie Todd did very well to stay on after he jumped into the Hill horse. It is obviously very weak form though so chances are the winner can be opposed next time. As for Sir Jack Yeats I was a bit concerned to see what he was like before the race as he didn't look a happy horse and he duly ran no sort of race. It obviously wasn't his true running and I think Aintree has clearly left a mark. I wrote in my Aintree review that he hadn't looked an easy ride at times and something clearly has happened to him probably mentally. If he was a generous price I might risk him next time, but he obviously has a big question mark after this. Onto Tuesday's races and there is a chance of a walkover at Ludlow because Now Ben won a point-to-point at Eyton on Monday afternoon. Again none of the press will have that info although he won at 2/13 and although I don't know the distance at this stage, but I suspect it was a very comfortable victory. Apparently the plan is to run him in this and for me he has to be the bet. The formbook has just 1lb between the two horses and through Queen Olivia there isn't a great deal between the two of them. Now had Virak not made the mistake he did there is a chance he could have won easier at Ascot, but there is no way the prices should as different as they are. Now Ben will make his own running and that could be too his advantage as well. I would make them joint favourites myself so at 15/8 he is a must bet. In theory Carter Mckay should have a very easy task at Sedgefield as this is a pretty weak race and he was 3rd in Grade 1 Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown last February. It is pretty odd to see this colours in a Hunter Chase as well. Interesting that he has ended up in a Novice Hunter Chase at Sedgefield as he has disappointed over fences so far when with Gordon Elliott, but those races were stronger than this. I wouldn't exactly want to be lumping on at 1/7 though. The outsider has no chance so it looks a match between Hurricane Vic and Exclusive Rights for 2nd place. Hurricane Vic ran OK to a point at Stratford, but there was very little that finished behind him and he has been well beaten in a point since. Therefore Exclusive Rights is the one I think can finish 2nd. This sort of trip on this ground is perfect for her and she was so close to winning at Fontwell last year. Ignore the pulled up the next time as the over-watered ground was against her. She ran with credit in a couple of handicaps over the summer. She was a solid enough 2nd on her seasonal debut and then unusually unseated last time. A repeat of her best Hunter Chase form should be good enough for 2nd and I am actually going to stick up 0.5pt on the win just in case Carter Mckay bombs out. Now Ben 2pts @ 15/8 with BetVictor and Unibet Carter Mckay to beat Exclusive Rights 2pts f/c Exclusive Rights 0.5pts @ 9/1 with William Hill and BetVictor
  2. Fylde can catch Wrexham so still have something to play for. I know it’s a long shot but they can still finish 3rd as well. Not saying Salford still won’t win but I can’t imagine Fylde will just turn up and give them the 3 points
  3. I doubt it given the level of care teams pay to county cups. Doubt they will even play the first team in them.
  4. Having seen the online version of the Racing Post the win on Saturday of Postbridge is not in it so only those in the know will know about it.
  5. Yeah wouldn't put people off doing that, but I on the whole prefer to take the bigger price for the bigger risk. Cue 9 draws now!
  6. I am hoping we are going to see a few big priced winners on Easter Monday as I have some monster prices among the 9 teams I am putting up. Aldershot v Havant Two relegated teams and both have only won one of their last 10 games, but Havant were able to go 3 up against Ebbsfleet on Friday and they aren't a bad side. As Lee Bradbury said after they were relegated they were very competitive in all bar 2 of their games this season and that is backed up by how many they have lost by a single goal. This is a Hampshire derby and I am sure they would love to get one over an Aldershot side who have had a terrible season. Havant just shouldn't be as big as 3/1 to win this. Chesterfield v Boreham Wood Chesterfield were poor on Friday against Gateshead and sadly for us seemed the players seemed to have their minds on the beach which surprised me. Whilst they were losing Boreham Wood gave Salford a massive scare coming from 2 down to level it at 2 all before conceding a winner late on. That effort might leave a mark, but given Chesterfield went through the motions on Saturday, if Wood can back that effort up then they have a chance here. At 18/5 they are well worth taking a risk with. Eastleigh v Maidenhead Eastleigh are doing their best to blow their play-off spot having lost 4 out of their last 6 games. Losing 2-0 at Dagenham on Friday was another poor effort and although Maidenhead couldn't quite recover from a poor first half against Barrow on Saturday they did get a point. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they won this this and at 19/5 they are worth backing. Ebbsfleet V Dover Ebbsfleet are the closest side to Eastleigh in 8th yet they have hit the buffers a little in the last couple of weeks. As mentioned above they got away with coming from 3 down on Friday to get a point. Prior to that they lost to Dagenham and before that it was a point at Gateshead. Dover are unbeaten in their last 7 now and in the last 10 form table only the 3 title contenders are above them. They might have nothing to play for, but they would love to get one over their Kent rivals and at 5/1 they look overpriced. Harrogate v Gateshead I'm slightly surprised to be putting up Gateshead, but although it was only a penalty that defeated Chesterfield they more than deserved the win. It showed they still have a bit of fight in them and Harrogate aren't exactly doing great things at the moment with their only win in 7 was against Havant. Given they have to chase down Eastleigh Gateshead have suddenly given themselves a chance of the play-offs again and although the early 5s has gone the 4s is still decent value. Guiseley v Darlington Darlington have hit form as they win against Bradford Park Avenue on Friday was the first time they have won 3 on the bounce all season. The only time Guiseley have won in their last 10 was when I opposed them against Curzon, but that was the start of Curzon's downturn in form so it doesn't say much. I don't think the away side should be over 2/1 to win this and they are well worth a bet. Bath City v Oxford City The home side looked good for the play-offs 6 games ago, but they then haven't won in 6. To be fair they have picked up 4 draws in that spell, but they only drew 0-0 against relegation threatened Hungerford on Friday. Oxford lost to Slough, but they are flying at the moment and it was 2 late goals which defeated them 3-1. They have won 4 of their last 6 and winning at Concord in their previous game is decent form. I just don't see how on earth they can be priced up at 9/1 to win this and although a draw is a concern they are simply too big not to back. Hemel Hempstead v Weston-Super-Mare Granted Weston weren't great when I put them up on Saturday, but Hemel have looked really poor of late and now Weston have finally been relegated it wouldn't surprise me if they went and won this now they have the pressure off. Weston have picked up 1 more point than Hemel in their last 10 games and it is just crazy why the bookies have stuck the away side in at 7/1 in what is a pretty even game for me. Leatherhead v Dorking One bet at step 3 and it is for the Bostik Premier Champions Dorking. Dorking haven't let up since they won the league winning every game since and they have lost just once in their last 20 games, a run which started against Leatherhead. They have already beaten 3 teams still in the play-off hunt in their last 3 games so to beat another one here wouldn't surprise at all. Leatherhead are 2 points off the play-offs although they are only 9th. They lost their 1st game in 7 at the weekend so they had been in good form, but Dorking have picked up 87 points, Haringey in 2nd are on 71 and Leatherhead are on 62. That's how much better than the rest they have been so to be able to back them at over 2/1 just because their hosts need a win looks worth taking advantage of. Havant 1pt @ 3/1 with BetVictor Boreham Wood 1pt @ 18/5 with BetVictor Maidenhead 1pt @ 19/5 with William Hill, Marathon and BetVictor Dover 1pt @ 5/1 with William Hill Gateshead 1pt @ 4/1 with Bet365 and BetVictor Darlington 1pt @ 11/5 with Bet365 Oxford City 1pt @ 9/1 with William Hill and Bet365 Weston-Super-Mare 1pt @ 7/1 with Bet365 Dorking 2pts @ 103/50 with Marathon
  7. A 4 runner race and a match are at Fakenham on Easter Monday which sums up the lack of runners in points this weekend. May as well start with the match as Sir Jack Yeats will win unless he comes to grief. I'm not going to put him up but have to say he should be shorter than 1/4 given he was miles in front of his rival here on Gold Cup day. As much as I saw the Alan Hill team have 3 winners at Kimble on Saturday I would be surprised if he won this with Allie Beag as he has a bit too find based on form lines with the others although this drop in trip should help and to be fair he probably shouldn't be as big a price as he is as this isn't a strong heat. Granted the two at the head of the market have good previous rules form, but I'm not sure how much ability either has right now. I was more than happy to oppose Cyrius Moriviere at Stratford and he showed very little. He has been 2nd in a point at Kingston Blount beaten by a horse called Free Of Charge who was having his first start for a couple of years, but was rated in the mid 90s when last seen for Gordon Elliott. Those two were a long way clear of the rest, but chances are it isn't strong form. Tabitha Worsley has the ride which is obviously a plus. On Llancillo Lord's last run in Ireland in November 2016 he finished a 3L 2nd to Presenting Percy. He only had 1 good run in 4 starts over here and that came in November when a close 7th at Chepstow over 2m off a mark of 117. He disappointed after that though and has bled in the past. He only made £1k at the sales in January, but he made a winning pointing debut for new connections at Maisemore last Sunday. He won by 12L in a fair enough time although the final circuit time was very slow which suggests they went too quick early on. That form is very weak although like I say it was an easy win. What you wont see in the form is that Postbridge won on Saturday at Higham. It was only a match, but he beat a solid yardstick 35L. Now chances are his rival didn't run his race, but the time was good given how easily he won. He ran in a point here last Sunday and finished 3rd in a decent enough contest and the weekend before that he was beaten a neck at High Easter by a horse who is 4/4 this season. Granted there must be a chance he doesn't run because he ran on Saturday, but it certainly doesn't put me off backing him and for me he has the best form in the race this season. Crazily he was put in at 18/1 by Betfair and Paddy's but it lasted 3 minutes and he is now 4/1. I personally think that is still value as based on this season's form he should be favourite and he is the bet. Postbridge 2pts @ 4/1 with William Hill, Betfair and Paddy Power
  8. Didn’t see this until after the game but yes Dulwich drifted out to at least 6/1 and for the first time I cashed out my original bet for a loss and went in at the bigger price. Can only imagine the Asians got involved with Wealdstone given Dulwich had nothing to play for.
  9. All the National League games take place on Good Friday with the other leagues playing across both Friday and Saturday before we get everyone playing on Easter Monday. Gateshead v Chesterfield I am opposing Gateshead again here having taken them on last Saturday which paid off with Eastleigh winning 1-0. That put to bed any realistic chance they had of reaching the play-offs and it made it one point in six games as the off the field issues are showing on the pitch. Chesterfield are finishing the season strongly. They are 3rd in the last 10 game form table and are now unbeaten in 6 after a routine win over Maidstone last week. Given John Sheridan will be having his first close season in charge I imagine the players are playing for contracts for next season so I don't see any reason for them to take things easy in a game which has little riding on it. I think the 6/4 with Betway and Betfred is a cracking price. Maidenhead v Barrow The home side were outclassed by Salford in the live game last week and it wasn't a terrible performance as such, but Salford were just so clinical in front of goal and so strong in defence. I think this offers a chance for them to get 3 points as Barrow haven't won in 4 and they blew a 2 goal lead against Dover last week to lose 3-2. Barrow are in 11th and Maidenhead are in 20th, but points wise there are only 7 points between them and Maidenhead were woeful for most of the first half of the season so I don't think there is much between these two sides at all. I would have them as favourites for this so the 15/8 with Marathon, Bet365 and William Hill makes plenty of appeal. Wealdstone v Dulwich Wealdstone are still in play-off contention and Dulwich made themselves safe last week after they beat Hungerford 3-1 and Truro lost to Concord on Tuesday night. That means Wealdstone obviously have more to play for, but Dulwich have really found their form at the moment and I think it is worth taking the risk that they keep performing up to the same standard they have been. In the last 10 games they have actually picked up 2 more points than their hosts and Wealdstone lost to a poor Hampton side last week. I think Dulwich are better than Hampton and they are certainly worth an interest at big odds (15/4 with Bet365) Weston-Super-Mare v Hampton & Richmond Speaking of Hampton a couple of surprising wins over Billericay and Wealdstone has seen them survive when I really did think they would get sucked into the bottom 3 given how poor they are. I think it sums up the league though which has been pretty poor again this year. Weston are likely to go down although they are given themselves a chance as they have beaten Dartford and East Thurrock in their last 2 games and I think they are worth chancing here. Like I say Hampton are poor and I reckon the might switch off now they are safe and with Weston still having something to play for I am happy to take a chance on them at 19/10 with Marathon. Wingate & Finchley v Margate I am going to back Margate again despite them losing their last two and that Wingate need the points to survive at the bottom. They were disappointing against Potters Bar last week, but they are better than Wingate and just shouldn't be as big as 2/1. Wingate have lost their last 3 conceding 10 goals in the process and this is certainly harder than their last game when they lost 3-1 to Corinthian Casuals. Just because a team at the bottom needs points it doesn't mean they will get them and there can often be value in taking them on and hopefully that is the case here. Chesterfield 3ps @ 6/4 with Betfred and Betway Maidenhead 1pt @ 15/8 with Marathon, Bet365 and William Hill Dulwich 1pt @ 15/4 with Bet365 Weston-Super-Mare 1pt @ 19/10 with Marathon Margate 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365
  10. I really hope Drumlynn finds a Hunter Chase before the season is out because he deserves it. I imagine Luke was targeting this race for a while and to bump in a horse like Theatre Territory is very unlucky. In the end the horse made the mare work hard for her win, but I suspect that is just the type of horse she is. Who knows if we will see her in another Hunter Chase or not, but I would imagine connections might be tempted by the mares race at Cheltenham which is usually pretty weak. Master Sunrise was pretty poor and I just wonder if last summer's handicap efforts have soured him especially when Johnson won on him. As for the bumper Grumpy Charley ran well enough to finish 3rd, but he still looked on the green side and probably needs more time. Full Of Roque looked the winner for most of the straight, but Merchant House came with a storming late challenge to take it up entering the final furlong. The fact he won tempers what the form is worth for me. Mount Nelly looks like she needs further as she got outpaced before staying on again for 4th and The Galloping Bear was never going the pace to get involved but finished closer than it looked like he would for a fair way. Whenhellbrokeloose was only favourite because he is trained by Alan King and I was right to be suspect of his chances although the fact he was very keen in the early stages didn't help matters. We were due a Hunter Chase on Easter Saturday at Newton Abbot but it isn't happening anymore so the double header at Fakenham on Easter Monday are the next races in what is a busy week.
  11. Going to add a couple of small without the favourite bets. Bet365 offer betting without the front two in the hunter chase and so I’m putting 1pt on mister sunrise at 13/2. As I mention above I think he’s over priced in the betting as I expect him to do much better than on his seasonal return and I would have as the 3rd best horse in the race. in the bumper I have had 0.5pt ew on the galloping bear in the without the fav market on bet365 at 8/1. As much as I don’t think he can beat the main selection there is every chance he can still hit the frame at the very least in that market
  12. Ravished ran pretty well at Hexham and I thought he had the favourite beat at one stage, but turning for home the winner put the race to bed, although he did idle on the run-in. The winner probably wants softer ground and his jumping didn't impress again which is always going to be a concern, but I thought it was a solid enough performance as the 2nd ran his race. I'd imagine they might be considering Stratford for the winner and if they over water the ground again that will certainly help him although his jumping wont. Gran Paradiso ran well enough in 3rd but I'm not surprised he wasn't good enough to win. He should find a Hunter Chase though I would imagine. God knows who was backing Cave Hunter and he pulled up whilst the rest were outclassed. The first thing to say about Exeter's Hunter Chase is that it is a disgrace that the rules allow a horse like Theatre Territory to run in a Novices' Hunter Chase. She was last seen on Grand National day running well enough in the Grade 3 Handicap Chase finishing 8th. She may not have won over fences so far, but it says it all that they have decided to nick a win in a Hunter Chase. I can't blame connections for running her it is the rules that need changing in my view. You don't need me to tell you that she should win this and she ought to win it very easily. Kit Barry and Draft Pick should struggle. I initially was going to say the same about Master Sunrise, but he might well be capable of finishing 2nd. It was no surprise he was massively outpaced by Risk A Fine over 2m4f at Warwick last time, but he did plug on in his first run since September. He is hard work and certainly needs this trip. The other big thing is the jockey change as James King takes over and the 2nd in the John Corbet Cup reads well in the context of this contest. I'm All Set did well to win at Taunton a couple of weeks ago, but that was a pretty weak contest although he is at least in good form. I prefer the chances of Drumlynn though. I still can't believe he didn't win at Leicester when being done on the line by Asangy and it is interesting that Luke has given him a wind op which should help him see out this trip better. I think he has a fair bit of ability and although I'm not sure he can beat the favourite he looks the most likely to chase her home. Barring accidents it will be a massive shock if Theatre Territory doesn't win. Drumlynn can chase him although I am also having a saver on Master Sunrise to finish 2nd as I think he is overpriced. Theatre Territory to beat Drumlynn 1.5pts f/c Theatre Territory to beat Master Sunrise 0.5pts f/c Onto the first of 3 Point To Point bumpers of the season. This is a race for horses that have run in British points this season although some have since gone to pro trainers and one of those is the favourite Whenhellbrokeloose. I have watched the video of his win at Bangor and he looked very green and I wasn't keen on his head carriage at all. Now he is sure to improve with experience and the ground was pretty testing that day so the better ground might help to, but out of the 3 bumpers on the card he recorded the slowest time. He was then unsold at the sales and Alan King must have purchased him privately and he is running in his colours here. In my view the horse is as short as he is because of the trainer and whilst I am not going to say he can't win he looks awfully short based on what he has done on the track so far. I don't really fancy the 2nd in the betting either Woodbrook Boy. Obviously it is interesting Shark Hanlon is bringing him over, but he is actually 0-11 with bumper runners in Britain in the last 5 seasons. He came over to run at the International Meeting at Barbury in December and won a maiden over 2m4f and then won back in Ireland the following month. In that race though he beat an exposed 11yo. He was then 3rd last time out. His form looks nothing special and he is the most exposed of these. If he gets smashed in the betting then that would be interesting, but on form he does little for me. Mount Nelly was 3rd on her debut in a bumper at Barbury in February when losing out in a 3 way photo. The winner won a maiden point since and was then sold for £50k, whilst she was sold herself for £12.5k. The front 3 that day pulled a fair way clear of the rest and it looks decent enough form. Think the market will tell us the story though as the yard's horses are usually well backed if they are fancied. A bold show wouldn't surprise though. Full Of Roque ran on the same Bangor card that the favourite ran on and he finished a 5L 2nd in a race that was 3 seconds quicker than Whenhellbrokeloose. That suggests their isn't that much between them and although I am not saying he will finish in front of him it is hard to see why the prices should be so different. I don't really fancy Getabuck. He was well beaten in a point bumper on debut a year ago and then pulled up over 2m5f on his seasonal return, before finishing 2nd at Didmarton and then winning at Kingston Blount. They were both over 3m though so it has to be a concern that he is dropping back in trip. Merchant House looks a bit quirky. He didn't handle a bend at Cotley and the swerved and unseated his rider approaching a fence. He was 2nd the time before that beaten 15L behind an impressive winner although he's been beaten since. On his debut he did win a bumper at Barbury, but the horse he beat has done nothing for the form since. Spectacular Rival, Reflex Action and Western Whiskey all look to have a fair bit to find. That leaves me with Grumpy Charley and The Galloping Bear who were 1st and 2nd in a bumper at Milborne St Andrew 3 weeks ago. The winning time was a good deal quicker than the other 2 bumpers on the card. I have watched the video and I was impressed with what I saw with Grumpy Charley. He looks to have plenty of speed and looked a bit green in the closing stages so there should be more to come. His very good jockey is able to take 7lbs off here so he is 7lbs better off with The Galloping Bear. The pair of them pulled 16L and whilst The Galloping Bear could well hit the frame, it is hard to see him reversing form with the winner. For me Grumpy Charley has the strongest form going into this contest and there looked to be plenty more to come from him as well. We know he will handle the ground as it was good on his debut and for me he should be the favourite. Grumpy Charley 2pts @ 11/2 with Paddy Power and Betfair
  13. Winners so far Road To Rome 1.5pts @ 13/8 Road To Rome 1.5pts e/w @ 7/1 Road To Rome 3pts @ 11/10 Asockastar 1pt @ 9/4 Risk A Fine 4pts @ 8/11 Road To Rome 2pts @ 7/4 Bally River Boy 1pt e/w 3rd @ 12/1 Wonderful Charm 3pts @ 10/11 Shantou Flyer 2pts @ evs Seefood 0.5pts @ 6/1 Shimla Dawn 1pt @ 7/2 Arthur's Secret 2pts @ 4/1 Ballotin 2.5pts @ Evs Hazel Hill 1pt @ 6/1 Sir Jack Yeats 3pts @ 5/2 Burning Ambition 2pts @ 13/8 Arthurs Secret 3pts @ Evs (r4) Master Baker 1.5pts @ 15/8 Optimised 1pt @ 9/4 Risk A Fine 2pts @ 13/8 Virak to beat Queen Olivia fc 0.5pts either £4.20 or £5.28 Top Wood 0.75pts e/w at 14/1 Hidden Charmer 2.5pts @ 9/4 Monsieur Gibraltar 3pts @ 10/11 Total staked so far I make 84.5pts. The returns are 150.31pts so I make that 65.81pts of profit so far
  14. Let's start at Wincanton which ended up being quite an interesting race to watch despite their being just the 3 winners. Quite why Natalie decided to stick to the left of Woodfleet I don't know and it nearly caused him to come to grief down the back for the final time. Finally down the home straight she moved to the inside and he stayed on well to score from Keltus who ran OK to finish 2nd. I don't think the form is worth much and its a shame for the winner that the Hunter Chase in May at Wincanton has disappeared this season. Still there might be another weak contest for him. Onto Stratford and I first of all let me deal with Abi Banks. I know she is rubbish and I do usually write in my previews when Arthur's Secret runs that she isn't very good, although I didn't yesterday. I have backed the horse in every Hunter Chase it has run in because I know how good a horse he is and the fact he isn't a hard ride so for me all she usually has to do is make sure she stays on top and the horse does the rest as he did at Ludlow on both his wins. In my view any jockey could have been on him today and the horse wouldn't have won. It wasn't like the horse was beaten in a tight finish where it would have made a difference. Basically as far as I am concerned Risk A Fine did to Arthur's Secret what I thought Arthur's Secret would do to Risk A Fine. Connections clearly fancied the winner because he was backed before drifting back out and James wanted to be positive from the start so they clearly thought they could get the favourite beat and they were spot on. Risk A Fine was going too fast and in my view broke Arthur's Secret's heart. Now he is better than this for sure and there are more races to be won with him, but he bumped into one better today. In my view Risk A Fine put in one of the best performances of the season so far. To keep that gallop up the whole way and still have plenty left at the end was really impressive. I am annoyed because I was such a big fan of the horse when I saw him win at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas and thought he would be winning Hunter Chases after that. He clearly performed below par when Monsieur Gibraltar beat him at Wincanton because for me in this form he is a better horse than that one. I'm annoyed I didn't keep my faith in him and at least put him up as a saver, but I was so sure he couldn't beat Arthur's Secret that I didn't. I've been proven right but this time haven't got the cash to show for it as I got it wrong on the day. Master Baker bled from the nose and he did travel well into the race, but I think he might have bled because of the pressure Risk A Fine was putting on him. My guess is we might see him next at Cheltenham for a race over just short of 2m5f or if they want to keep him to a flatter track then Southwell or Fontwell look likely. We have an odds on favourite for the Hexham race on Monday with Sausalito Sunrise bidding to go one better than he did when 2nd at Chepstow on his Hunter Chase debut. He should come on for that, but I am not sure the form is the strongest and as much as he obviously was the best of these on his old form, I think there could be value in taking him on. I got Ravished wrong at Wetherby last time as I thought he would struggle to beat Always On The Run, but he beat him fair and square and I thought it was a really good effort. He had clearly improved massively from his first two starts of the season to win his 3rd by 30L and he backed that effort up with the Wetherby win. That is the best recent form in the race for me and he is the value in the race. Cave Hunter has won 3 Hunter Chases back in 2015 and 2016 and is a good horse on his day. He hasn't been seen under rules though since unseating at the 1st and at the 2nd in two Hunter Chases in 2017. I don't think he is as good as he used to be though and his win last time was in a 3 runner race that took little winning and was run in a very slow time. Damiens Dilemma also won on that same Friars Haugh card and clocked a time 21 seconds quicker. He dead heated with a horse who has been in good form this season so the form is fair and it was his first run of the season. The problem is we know he is at most a mid 90's horse and that shouldn't be good enough to win this. I opposed Gran Paradiso at Musselburgh because I thought he would get outpaced round there given the front running Shimla Dawn and he was a long way back before his jockey realised he had to get closer. Just as he was reaching the leaders he then unseated his jockey. It's hard to know how he would have got on but that was a pretty big mid-race move and the winner bolted up so I just wondered if that move might have told late on. He has won a weak 3 runner race since. He will stay this trip as he has proven this season and he wouldn't be without a chance here. Sausalito Sunrise might win this, but I think he is worth taking on as I'm not sure it was the strongest race in the world at Chepstow and I preferred the win of Ravished at Wetherby as a form line so he has to be the selection. I was considering putting Gran Paradiso up as a saver given this stamina test should suit better than the Musselburgh race, but I don't think his form is as good as Ravished and with only 7 runners backing him e/w makes little appeal either so I will stick with just the one bet. Ravished 1pt @ 11/4 with Betfair Paddy Power