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Darran last won the day on September 17

Darran had the most liked content!

About Darran

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    Non League Punter
  • Birthday 08/26/1982

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  1. Good to see fans socially distancing then! Not going to help football being allowed to continue when things like that happen
  2. Welcome to the forum @Greg@ETFC and good to see a new convert to Non-League
  3. Group 1 action at both Caulfield and Randwick in the morning and plenty of clues for other big races to come in the next month and a half as well. Drew a blank last week although Flemington missing the forecast rain didn't help matters as it ended up being very quick ground. I have bets in 7 races tomorrow Caulfield R4 (5.15am) I like the look of Front Page here who has won 4 of his 6 starts including the last 3. He has gone from a BM58 to a BM68 and then won in Listed company at Flemington last time. That is like going from a Class 6 to a Class 5 and then into Listed company over here. Those races were in May and June so he is 1st up here, but has won both times 1st up so that isn't an issue and he was really impressive at Flemington winning by nearly 3L and clocking a good time. He is likely to be hard to beat, but I will have a saver on William Thomas. He is 4/6 over 1100m and 3/5 over course and distance. He is also 1st up and has won 3/5 on 1st time up so he could easily go close here. Front Page @ 7/4 with Bet365 William Thomas @ 13/2 with Bet365 Caulfield R6 (6.35am) Aidensfield is the pick here. She won her 1st two races here and at Sandown in May and then was 2nd a couple of weeks ago in a Listed race at Moonee Valley. I thought she was a bit unlucky there as well as she had to make a sweeping run on the outside whereas the winner got a nice run on the inside and was able to sit and sprint. The winner is a good horse anyway so it was a good effort and she looks like being capable of going 1 better here. Aidensfield @ 3/1 with Bet365 Caulfield R9 (8.25am) I'm pretty keen on Lyre here who looks to have been found a good opportunity in this G3 contest to end the card. She had some strong form in G1 races earlier in the year including being 2nd to Bella Vella in the Sangster at Morphettville and 3rd in the Goodwood at the same venue. 1st up she was 2nd over 1100m here last month and she was a touch unlucky as well. Going up to 1200m will suit and she really deserves to get her head in front again. She's got good draw in 3 so should be able to sit just behind the speed and then pounce in the straight. Lyre @ 6/4 with William Hill Randwick R3 (4.25am) Cinquedea had been struggling a bit on testing ground, but put in a much improved performance on a Good 4 over 1500m here a couple of weeks ago. He had a terrible draw and found herself way too far back in a race dominated by those on the speed, before flying home. He clocked the 3rd best final 600m, 400m and 200m of the whole day on that occasion. His last win came over this trip back in February and with a much better draw, down in grade hopefully he can build on that last time out effort. I do want Across Dubai on side again having been on him last time when he was 4th in the same race as Cinquedea. That's 3 solid runs now since arriving in Australia and he should be fitter for this 2nd up. Cinquedea e/w @ 10/1 with Betfred Across Dubai e/w @ 10/1 with Betfred Randwick R5 (5.40am) Probabeel ran a huge race 1st up over 1200m here a month ago a trip which would have been too short for her. She didn't have much room until late on either and when she got out she flew home. Her 2nd up stats are impressive and she has finished in the 1st 2 in 12 of her 16 starts. She won a G1 over this course and distance in February and I think she can take this G3 on the way to bigger targets this spring. Probabeel @ 17/10 with Bet365 Randwick R6 (6.15am) The G1 George Main looks a good chance for Verry Elleegant to land another G1 contest. I didn't fancy her in the Winx Stakes a month ago as I thought the 1400m would be too short for her, but she put in a really impressive performance to win that day. That was her 1st run since finishing 2nd to Addeybb in the Queen Elizabeth in April. Avilius won this last year and ran well last time, but he usually finishes behind Verry Elleegant now. Verry Elleegant @ 7/5 with Bet365 Randwick R9 (8.15am) Criaderas is 3/3 for Godolphin and set a track record last time (although that is from a small sample size), but the form hasn't worked out that well so I am going to take him on with Icebath. I have put him up the last twice and she hasn't had a great deal of luck in running either time. She found himself too far back last time and then got hampered around 200m out. She is clearly ready to win and hopefully she gets a better ride and more luck this time. Icebath @ 18/5 with Bet365
  4. So the first Saturday of the season and who knows how many more we will get so let's see if we can make some cash whilst we can. I have 5 bets and here are my brief thoughts. Bishops Stortford v Bognor I was close to putting Bognor up as an ante-post bet and certainly think they can get off to a winning start against a Stortford side who look set for a season of struggle. Cray Wanderers v Kingstonian This is the value play of the day. I have put Kingstonian up as a bet to win the title and as much as I think Cray can put themselves in the promotion picture again I do think Kingstonian are a big price to take 3 points here. As I said in the ante-post preview if Kingstonian weren't far away last season and I think the amount of draws and the games in hand they hand masked their true level. Add into the fact they have strengthened and I think they have a better chance of winning here than the bookies have them. Dorchester v Weston-Super-Mare I think Weston will go very well this season and they have a very strong side. Dorchester struggled last term and although they might improve a bit on that this is a very tough start for them. Barwell v Lowestoft I think Lowestoft are going to be in for a real season of struggle this term. After seasons of having cash, they don't really have any at the moment. Barwell look a solid mid-table side and they should be able to pick up 3 points to start the season. Atherton Collieries v Scarborough The home side look to have one of the smallest budgets in the league and they look relegation contenders. Darren Kelly has got a decent looking side at Scarborough and he will be hoping they can make the play-offs. They will certainly be expecting 3 points to start the season. Bognor 2pts @ 11/8 with William Hill Kingstonian 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365 Weston-Super-Mare 2pts @ Evs with Bet365 Scarborough 1pt @ 7/5 with William Hill Barwell 2pts @ 21/20 with William Hill
  5. If there is one I don't know of it. Might be something out there for Step 1, but would be surprised if there was anything lower down.
  6. I'm going to lock this thread so it doesn't get confusing. Any ante-post thoughts can go in that thread and anything on Saturday's matches can go in that one
  7. Wouldn’t be top of my shortlist but certainly one of a few teams who would be in with a play off shout
  8. Was writing the preview as you were typing this!
  9. Try William Hill as they have all the leagues priced up now. Some prices are the same with them anyway,
  10. Step 3 I think finish 15th May and steps 1 & 2 are end of May. Pretty certain all the step 3 league cups aren’t taking place this season
  11. Usually I write this at the end of July so it certainly seems strange to be writing it in mid-September. One of the the other strange things is the fact that the 4 Step 3 leagues start before the National League's and that has meant bookies have been very slow in pricing it up and as I type this Bet365 are the only ones who have priced up all 4. That's great news, but what isn't great news is the fact they aren't taking any each-way bets in those divisions. I have been in contact with them and been told it was a trading decision. It is really frustrating and although I was putting up some win only bets anyway, there were certainly teams who made e/w appeal. These 4 leagues were made null and void in March and that means we have the best form guide we have ever had and it is no surprise that the 4 favourites were those 4 teams who would have likely won their divisions for Covid-19 hadn't hit. I must admit it wouldn't be a big surprise if we end up with another non-completion this season so that added to the fact the season starts in 2 days time means these previews are going to be pretty brief. Also the National League's don't start until October (crowd restrictions allowing) so I won't be previewing them just yet as I am waiting for more bookies to price up Step 2 and with the Macclesfield situation most bookies have pulled their National League prices. Pitching In Northern Premier League South Shields tried everything they could to get promotion once the season was declared null and void, but it was just a complete waste of money as they were never going to get the decision overturned. Not surprisingly they are warm favourites at 11/8 for the title and I actually think that price is value. Money is still no issue for the club and they were a notch above their league rivals last season. They ought to be winning the title this season. I can see FCUM, Warrington, Basford and Morpeth all going well again, but I am going to cover Buxton who have strengthened really well over the break. They look to have a bit of cash based on who they have been signing. Pitching In Isthmian Premier Division I've backed Kingstonian the last two seasons and I am going to put them up again at 16/1 which is too big a price. On the basis they have got a fair bit of ground on Worthing as they were 10th when the season finished and 24 points behind them. They did have 3 games in hand though and they only actually lost one more game than Worthing. The problem was they drew 14 of their 31 games and that obviously cost them big time. It shows though that they aren't far away and they look to have improved again on paper over the break. They can be the one team to make the leap from mid-table to title contenders. Obviously Worthing are contenders having looked set to win the title when the season was stopped, but my other bet will be Hornchurch. They were another team who drew too many games last season having only lost 5 games. They had the best defence in the league and they look to have a good team yet again. At 10/1 they are worth backing as well. Pitching In Southern Premier League Central Tamworth were my main bets in this league last year and I think they would have won the league if it had of continued. They will be the main bets again this time around at 3/1. They look to have an even better squad this time around and I think they might be quite hard to beat. I also want Stourbridge on side. Getting Mark Yates in as manager was a cracking bit of business and he is more than capable of getting the best out of a strong looking squad. Pitching In Southern Premier League South 3 against the field for me here. I really fancied Weston-Super-Mare last season and they disappointed a bit although towards the end they were getting it together. They have signed really well over the break and as long as it all comes together on the pitch they have one of the best sides in the division. Truro were the most likely winners prior to lockdown and they have got stronger if anything so I have to have them on side. The final bet is Taunton. They went so close to pipping Weymouth two seasons ago and seemed to feel the effects of that last season where they under performed a bit. I expect them to do much better this time around. South Shields 3pts @ 11/8 with Bet365 Buxton 0.5pts @ 9/1 with Bet365 Kingstonian 1pt @ 16/1 with Bet365 AFC Hornchurch 1pt @ 10/1 with Bet365 Tamworth 2pts @ 5/1 with William Hill Stourbridge 0.5pts @ 14/1 with Bet365 Weston-Super-Mare 1.5pts @ 7/1 with Bet365 Truro 1pt @ 5/1 with Bet365 Taunton 0.5pts @ 14/1 with Bet365
  12. The quality racing in Australia continues this Saturday with top class racing at Flemington in Melbourne and Rosehill in Sydney. There will be Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup clues aplenty. I have bets in 3 races at Flemington and 4 at Rosehill. Flemington R1 (3.05am) A cracking race to get the card underway and I like two against the field. Schabau is quite a short price favourite here and although the ex-German horse has a good chance I do think there is value elsewhere. Persan has done nothing but improve and it was another good win last time. Crucially he wont mind what the weather does (there is a fair bit of rain in the forecast) and he does look value. Young Rascal won't need any introductions and he will improve massively for this step up in trip 2nd up. Don't forget he beat Mugatoo on his 1st start in Australia and that is top notch form. He has top weight here, but I think it is fully deserved. Persan @ 100/30 with William Hll Young Rascal win and place @ 11/1 & 11/5 with Bet365 Flemington R2 (3.35am) Immortal Love is 3/3 so far and was a G3 winner last time, beating two good horses in the process. He is already a course and distance winner and has won on Good, Soft and Heavy ground so again he wont care what the weather does. He drops into Listed company here and although there are a couple of possible improvers in the field he sets a high benchmark to overcome. Immortal Love @ 14/5 with Bet365 Flemington R3 (4.05am) This does look like it will be a match between Savatiano and Arcadia Queen who finished 1st and 5th in a G2 at Caulfield last time. Savatiano can uphold that form for me. Arcadia Queen has a poor draw in 12 and with Savatiano likely to make the running or sit just behind the pace she is going to get first run on her main rival and that could prove crucial. Arcadia Queen continues to have injury issues as well which is also a worry. Savatiano @ 6/4 with Bet365 Flemington R5 (5.15am) Aktau was a very progressive horse for Roger Varian and he won at Glorious Goodwood on his final start over here. He has continued that progression in Australia winning 3/4 and claiming the Mornington Cup on his last start. He is 1st up here, but that isn't a concern given he won 1st up over 1600m here in December. Given that I am not worried about the 1700m trip here although obviously he will be stepping up in trip as the prep goes on. There should be more to come from him. I am having a saver on Shot Of Irish. That one ran at Moonee Valley last week, but he reared up as the stalls opened and injured his jockey in the process. He was progressive last prep and given the forecast he is likely to get his favoured ground come race time. Aktau @ 100/30 with William Hill Shot Of Irish @ 8/1 with Bet365 Flemington R6 (5.55am) Windstorm is a really promising horse. He looked speedy in Western Australia and clocked some quick late sectionals on his first start in Victoria over 1100m last time to finish 4th. Going up in trip is obviously a positive and the long straight at Flemington should be ideal for him. He looks capable of taking this Listed contest on the way too much loftier targets. Windstorm @ 6/5 with William Hill Rosehill R1 (3.15am) Ex-UK Cadre Du Noir was impressive at Sandown last time having finished 2nd to Skyman the time before. The Sandown race was only a BM70 though and he is back into BM78 company here. Skyman ran poorly last week as well so that form wasn't franked. He does look progressive, but he looks very short at odds on here. I am going to back Korcho to bounce back instead. He was poor last time, but he was dropping down in trip on quicker ground and started slowly so everything went against him. He had won his previous two and looked on the upgrade so I am happy to forgive the run a couple of weeks ago. Korcho @ 11/2 with Betfair Rosehill R3 (4.25am) Yonkers clocked some quick finishing sectionals when returning last time at Randwick. He steps up 400m in trip here and if finishing his race off as well then he should go close. I am also going to back New King. Another horse to have come from the UK and we were on him when he won over 1500m here a month ago. He wasn't great last tie, but he got a slow start and was way too far back. He was impressive in winning the time before and I am prepared to give forgive the flop the last time. He won over this trip at Sandown on his final start in the UK so that looks a plus. Yonkers @ 6/1 with Bet365 New King @ 10/1 with Betfair Rosehill R7 (6.55am) Funstar will be a big danger although I think she needs further than 1300m so I am firmly in Special Reward's camp here. He has won 8 of his 15 starts and was superb 1st up when finishing 3rd and just losing out in a 3 way go. He has got a good draw in 6 and should be able to take up the running with there not looking like there is any other pace in the race. He also has a great 2nd up record winning 3/5. Special Reward @ 16/5 with Bet365 Rosehill R9 (8.15am) Entante won a G3 at Randwick back in April and then finished 3rd in another G3 here on his following start. He returned over 1200m here a couple of weeks ago in a BM88 and ran well to finish 6th over a trip too short for him. He drops down in grade again here into a BM78 and although he has to carry 61kg I think he can do it. He goes up to 1500m and although he's never won over a trip this short I think he can get away with it in this grade especially based on his 1st up run. Entante @ 4/1 with Bet365
  13. Looking forward to seeing Velasco in the 2.30 at Uttoxeter. He was massively impressive when winning his pointing debut in a time 17 seconds quicker than the other division of the maiden. His jumping wasn't always the best either and he looks to have a serious engine. I'm very surprised it went unsold at the sales given how impressive he was. I've had a small e/w bet on him, but he's certainly a horse to keep a very close eye on with a view to the future
  14. Sorry for the late notice on this one, but I forgot Jack Snipe was running until earlier today and only just had chance to have a good look through the race (3.50 Newton Abbot). There are a couple who don't mind racing prominently, but he should be able to lead again. Hopefully his jockey won't go quite as hard as at Uttoxeter, but I also wonder if maybe he needed another run as well to help get him up to full fitness. The form has been franked to a certain extent as the 6th beat the 2nd in a race at Sedgefield a couple of weeks ago. The Twiston-Davies horse has been well backed and is probably the main danger. Hurricane Arcadio has done well the last twice as well, but at 6/1 (or 13/2 if you can get on with BetVictor) I think Jack Snipe looks a solid e/w chance again. Jack Snipe e/w @ 13/2 with BetVictor (6/1 elsewhere)
  15. Again plenty of cracking action in Melbourne and Sydney on Saturday morning with plenty of Group racing to look forward to. Race 4 at Randwick sees the return of the world's best sprinter Nature Strip (yes he is better than Battash) as he works up towards The Everest next month. He's obviously very short, but his 1st up record isn't actually that good and if he does get beat tomorrow I wouldn't be too worried. He has looked very good in his trials though so hopefully we will see him win. I have bets in 7 races 5 at Moonee Valley and 2 at Randwick. As I currently write Oddschecker are missing all the Australian meetings so I have just used Bet365 prices, but better might be available elsewhere. Hopefully Oddschecker will sort the issue out as I have asked them to. Also hopefully I can see an improvement profit wise as the last two weeks have not been good sadly. Moonee Valley R1 (3.30am) I like the claims of How Womantic here as she makes her return. She won her first 4 races which included a G3 win at Caulfield. Her only defeat was last time at Flemington in a G2, but she was caught wide there from a bad draw and had no cover and it certainly looked a run you could forgive. She's got a great draw tomorrow and I think she can continue her progression as she drops back down into handicap company. How Womantic @ 2.80 with Bet365 Moonee Valley R2 (4.05am) I am putting up ex UK horse Skyman here. He was due to run in a race here a couple of weeks ago, but was called off. It looked a very tough race for him though and this contest at this stage looks more suitable for him. He has won both his Australian starts and looks very progressive. He beat a fellow import last time and that horse has since bolted up in a race at Sandown. There are a couple of slight concerns about him as he doesn't have a great draw and will probably have to come from quite far back which given the nature of the track isn't ideal. In my view though he is better than this grade and those concerns are factored into his price so I am prepared to back him. Skyman @ 6.50 win and 2.38 place with Bet365 Moonee Valley R4 (5.15am) Given his main rival Shot Of Irish looks so much better on a wet track I think Junipal looks a real solid chance here. His run 1st up was a cracking effort given horses were struggling to come from behind that afternoon and he ran on well to finish 3rd to Showmanship which looks really good form. Apart from the winner he had the fastest last 200m in the race. All his wins have been over this trip so the extra 200m is going to be right up his street. He's a course and distance winner as well. Junipal @ 2.50 with Bet365 Moonee Valley R8 (7.45am) A G2 contest here which sees the return of Harbour Views and Surprise Baby. Harbour Views has been talked up as a Cox Plate contender although he was a bit disappointing a couple of times last prep and I prefer the chances of Surprise Baby. He was last seen running a really good race when 5th in the Melbourne Cup. He had a terrible draw in 20 that day and that poor draw probably got him beat. Obviously this race is half the distance of the Melbourne Cup, but he ran a really good race in it last year when 4th in what was a stronger renewal. He has only had 11 starts, but in his 5 wins he has won over trips from 1200m to 3200m so the trip doesn't concern me. Connections are suggesting he is ready to run a big race even though the Melbourne Cup is clearly is main target and I take him to make a winning return. Surprise Baby @ 2.80 with Bet365 Moonee Valley R9 (8.20am) If Rivet Dancer wins this after putting him up the last twice I will be annoyed, but I prefer the chances of Dabiyr. He has plenty in his favour. He is 2/2 at the track and 3/3 2nd up. His 1st run of the prep saw him finish 3rd at Flemington in a really strong contest. The step up to this trip is much more suitable for him and Craig Williams should be able to get him settled just behind the leaders and hopefully he will be too strong for them in the straight. Dabiyr @ 3.00 with Bet365 Randwick R5 (5.35am) An open contest this, but I think ex UK horse Across Dubai is worth backing here. William Haggas used to train him over here and he won on his last race at Chelmsford in a Class 2 a couple of years ago. He wasn't seen until this May when he ran a solid race to finish 7th and then built on that when finishing 3rd a couple of weeks later. I thought that was a very good run on testing ground given his best form in the UK was either on good ground or on the AW. He's got a decent draw here and hopefully he should be able to settle a bit further forward than he was able to last time. He will improve again once going up in trip, but I do think he is capable of winning over this trip and he looks a big price at double figures. Across Dubai @ 14.00 win and 3.75 place with Bet365 Randwick R9 (8.10am) It is a shame the odds on favourite has been scratched here because I was going to oppose him. Icebath is the main pick and ran a huge race 1st up when she recorded the 2nd fastest last 400m and last 200m of the meeting. She looks better than a handicapper to me and she has already been placed in a Listed contest and a G3. There should be improvement 2nd up. I am going to have a saver on Cristal Breeze who was 3rd behind Icebath in that race. I think he has more to come as well and although he won on a Heavy track on his Australian debut I do think his UK form suggests he will be better on a quicker surface and I do want him onside. Icebath @ 3.00 with Bet365 Cristal Breeze @ 5.50 with Bet365