Darran

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Darran last won the day on March 20

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About Darran

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  • Birthday 08/26/1982

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  1. Given tiger roll didn’t win the virtual national last year it’s hard to think they will give it to him this year.
  2. Plenty of the bookie websites have virtual Aintree races now obviously that’s a random number draw compared to this one which is based on reality
  3. Seen it confirmed that bookies will bet on it with all profits going to nhs charities
  4. Let’s say no football can take place until 2021. How can that possibly be classed as the same season? That is a long time and teams will show very different form. You void now then teams can concentrate on getting teams ready for the next season. Also as I mention in the original piece if you restart what happens if clubs then get forced into lockdown because of the virus? You run the risk of a further delay. Also how long do you make the resumption? As I state Morpeth have 15 games to play. How long do you give them to play them?
  5. The problem is though there is no thought to how performances will be for the final few games of the season so you reward performances that have already happened which isn’t fair on what teams would have done. When you have a team who has 15 games left that is huge. Teams entered the season with the rules being based on how teams did over a full season not part of a season. Obviously more specific rules will be put in place on the future but legally I think the leagues would be on very shaky ground if they used ppg. My guess is the premier league will finish somehow because of the tv money
  6. Clearly there are more important things going on in the world at the moment, but I sort of feel the talk about how the football divisions are going to be settled is an escapism from what is going on, which is pretty much what sport is anyway. I have already been pretty vocal on Twitter on how I think things should be sorted, but I think writing a post on here is worthwhile as I can go into more detail. First of all the ideal situation would be for the season to be finished. The problem here though is no one knows when that will be possible. The Premier League can get away to a certain extent with playing behind closed doors as the TV money is way more than anything they get through the turnstiles. Non-League sides obviously could play behind closed doors, especially the smaller ones who don't get much of a crowd. However that crowd provide vital money and teams don't have much of an income without people being there. It is hard to see how the public are going to be allowed to go to watch sport anytime soon given the situation. I think it will be months before we would be able to finish the season with a crowd. For Non-League sides that brings about all sort of issues with paying players as they stop getting paid on the last day of the season in April. Unless something happens that makes it complicated for teams and players. Also what has to be factored in is we are basically having a close season at the moment. Clubs aren't going to be to speed to start straight away. They are going to need a training time and if possible friendlies. One interesting point the Lewes chairman made in Sunday's Non-League Paper is that if the season was played to a conclusion you would get teams with nothing to play for playing a youth team so they didn't have to spend much or even anything on players. I can certainly see that happening in the circumstances. He also mentions about a possible further outbreak of COVID-19. It is hardly going to go away completely and all it would take is for someone connected with one club to cause a further delay to things. I know that 60 odd clubs have signed a letter asking for the FA to delay the decision, but I am not sure that helps things massively. Quite a few clubs also want a decision asap and that is what the FA has done. Now onto the main point as to how the season should be settled. South Shields, Jersey Bulls and Vauxhall Motors are especially annoyed by the FA's decision because they have either already won promotion or look set to win the league. South Shields are 12 points clear with 9 games to play although FCUM in 2nd do have a game in hand, but clearly it would be a surprise if South Shields didn't go onto win the title. They have spent plenty of money to get themselves up the pyramid so they obviously feel some of that has been wasted if the season is made void. The problem is though you have to look at all divisions and other leagues are much tighter. Let's look at the National League North were York are 2 points clear of Kings Lynn. Kings Lynn though have two games in hand. On points per game (PPG) Kings Lynn would win the title. However they have only picked up 4 points in their last 6 games and have lost 4 of them. Based on that you would hardly be confident they would win those two games in hand or even go on to win the title. York have picked up 10 points in their last 6 games. Some might say you could promote them both, but then the other possible play-off teams are going to be really annoyed if you just promote the team who finished 2nd and don't forget in the 3 National League's the play-offs go down to 7th place. Barrow are 4 points clear in the National League and manger Ian Evatt is adamant they will win the title if able to play out the season, but of course he is going to say that. Harrogate are 2nd and both teams have 9 games left. Also on Wednesday they were due to play each other at Harrogate. Win that and the gap is down to 1. Given they have got 5 more points than Barrow in their last 10 games it is certainly possible that Harrogate could catch them and win the title. Reverse the situation and you can bet that Evatt would not be so desperate for the season to be decided by PPG. You also couldn't rule out Notts County who are finishing strongly after a not surprising slow start. Why should County be punished for having a slow start to the season when they still have 8 games to play and have got themselves into a strong position. Teams come in and out of form and there is still plenty of time for things to change. Tamworth are one of the clubs who have signed the letter and they would have won their league on PPG, but their league is really tight and having backed them for the title I hoped they would win the league, Royston would have at the very least pushed them all the way. I have seen it suggested that PPG would at least be fair to those who have had a good season and deserve promotion, but until you have won the title nothing is certain and even then you have to consider the whole league. Yes there will be teams at the bottom who would have gone down and get another season to try and stay up if the league is voided, but on the other hand there are plenty of clubs who were looking capable of getting themselves out of the relegation zone. I'm going to use my own club Gloucester as an example here. This time last season we would have gone down under PPG as we went on a long run without a win mid season. A new manager came in during January and in the end we were safe before the last game of the season, which was a minor miracle. There will be other clubs in that sort of situation so how can you relegate sides and not give them the chance to get out. I keep seeing the table doesn't lie, but that is rubbish given how much of the season is left and the fact teams have played a different amount of games. That last point brings me onto Morpeth in the Northern Premier League. They have 15 games still to play having played just 27 games so far. They have 6 games in hand over South Shields and if they did happen to win them all they would end up just 3 points behind them. Chances are given they had so many games to fit in they wouldn't have won them all, but that also means if we were to carry on with the season how on earth would they be able to fit 15 games in to say a month to finish the season as quickly as possible.That would mean them playing a game every other day which is hardly a good look for the league and other teams are also going to suffer as a consequence of Morpeth's games having to be squeezed in. Also if you used PPG they would automatically go into the play-off places, but as Warrington manager Paul Carden said in the Non-League paper PPG doesn't take injury, suspension, travel and fatigue into account. Some teams will have easier run ins than others. If for example you have yet to play Redditch who have only 12 points in the Southern League Premier Central, yet others have played them twice then you will be annoyed that you have more than likely missed out on 3 points. If you do use PPG then what do you do with the play-offs? As I mention above some say promote the 2nd team, but then you annoy a lot of other clubs who were expecting a play-off berth and just because you finish 2nd that doesn't mean you win the play-offs. I guess you could try and squeeze in the play-offs at some stage, but again it takes up vital time before a new season can start. The Northern League chairman was quoted in the NLP as to why they choose to void the season and he mentioned the Isthmian League chairman had pointed out that they still had 25% of the season still to play. That is a huge amount of games and I know that clubs want to look after their own interests, but you have to look at the bigger picture and realise that voiding the season is the only fair way of dealing with the issue. There are too many unknowns to finish the season in any other way in my opinion. South Shields are saying they will get the lawyers in which quite frankly is ridiculous given what is going on in the world right now. Also if you settled the season on PPG you would see way more clubs up in arms about the decision. As some managers and clubs have said it is best to just get on with the decision that has been made and focus the energy on making sure all the clubs survive because plenty will be struggling to do so and regardless of what happens with the 2019/20 season I suspect the Non-League landscape will look very different for the whenever the next season starts. The National League are set to meet on Tuesday and I guess we will find out in due course what they plan to do. Apparently they were taken off the original FA ruling at the 11th hour as they want to see the season out. I can't see the FA changing their mind about the voiding of Steps 3-6 regardless of the letter as it would be very unusual should them to do so and ultimately they have made the only real decision they could.
  7. Sorry only just seen this as not been in this part of the site for a while. Bet365 are yet to refund, but William Hill and BetVictor have.
  8. Given it has been confirmed there will be no more hunter chases in the UK this year and it is hard to see there being anymore in Ireland it is time to review this years service. What is amazing given how poor form I was in for the first 2 months of the season was that I managed to scrape a profit of 3pts. Now it does depend if you did the Tote forecast or the CSF at Catterick, but if you did the CSF you would be about a point up. Obviously it is the right thing to do regards the suspension of racing, but just purely looking at hunter chases it is frustrating that having started to find the winners that there won't be a chance to start building a healthy profit. Nailing that big forecast at Catterick was the key as was getting getting Clondaw Westie at Ffos Las and Full Irish at Fakenham. I only put bets up in 19 races staking 41.5pts and had returns in 7 of them returning 44.5pts. If we do get anymore in Ireland then I will cover them, but otherwise it is going to be a very long wait until January when hopefully we will be back to some sort of normality.
  9. Thankfully Australian racing was able to continue after a scare earlier in the week and their looks to be a few betting opportunties on the main card at Rosehill plus the metro card in Victoria which this week is at Bendigo another country track after it was at Mornington last week. Rosehill race 5 4.10am Going to take two against the field. Villami was really good 1st up in a Listed contest and if she can buiuld on that performance than she has to be bang there off a light weight. She has form with Loving Gaby in the spring which obviously stacks up well. I mentioned Kementari last week when he was set to appear in The Galaxy. They took him out and have decided to aim him at this G3 instead. Could be a good move if he is anywhere near the form he showed before he went to stud and as I mentioned last week he trialled very well earlier in the month. Villami @ 3/1 with William Hill Kementari @ 5/1 with Bet365 Rosehill race 6 4.50am The G1 Tancred Stakes features plenty of familiar names to UK and Irish punters and also those who were watching Rosehill last week as the front 3 in the betting all ran last week. Verry Elleegant is not surprisingly the favourite after her great run when being beaten by Addeybb, with Avilius back in 3rd. They are up to 2400m here, but I can't see the form being reversed. Hugh Bowman said he was happy with how Avilius performed, but he looked ordinary to me and he just doesn't seem the same horse as last year. Verry Elleegant won the ATC Oaks over this trip so that isn't a concern and she can win, but I am going to chance a couple at bigger odds. Mustajeer was last year's Ebor winner and he was pretty poor in the Melbourne Cup after that. He is now in Australia full time and his two runs back from a spell have been good efforts as he won 1st up over 1900m and then finished 2nd to a very progressive horse last time out. Up to 2400m will be more suitable and the Ebor was essentially a G1 handicap in all but name. I think he can run a good race here. In the same colours I also like Danceteria at a big price. He was trained by David Menuisier over here and ran a really good race when 4th behind Enable in the Eclipse. After that he won a G1 at Munich before a trip to the Cox Plate which didn't go well. That can be ignored though and I think he is slowly coming to hand this prep. He only beat one home 1st up, but last time he travelled well before fading in the straight in testing ground. It won't be as soft here and with blinkers on for the first time I can see him running well given his European form is very strong. Mustajeer @ 8/1 with William Hill, Paddy Power and Betfred (e/w) Danceteria @ 25/1 with BetVictor and Betfred (e/w) Rosehill Race 9 6.50am Star of the Stars won a G3 over 1100m 1st up and should enjoy the step up in trip. He has a superb record at Rosehill where he has won 4 of his 5 starts and looks set to travel just behind the speed from his draw in 8. Star of the Seas @ 100/30 with William Hill Bendigo Race 1 1.15am The slight concern is that Grand Promenade is having his 7th start this prep and that is fairly unusual in Australia, but his win at Caulfield over this trip after being trapped 3 wide with no cover for most of the race was really good. This looks a good race for him. Grand Promenade @ 7/5 with Paddy Power Bendigo Race 6 4.30am Going to have 2 bets against the field in this. Twitchy Frank has been so consistent since his last win just under a year ago at Caulfield. He has mainly run in his native Tasmania since and gone close in some decent races. He should go well again here. Mirette has a touch of class about her although she was very disappointing 1st up in the Echuca Cup. She has run well against Princess Jenni a couple of times last year and that is strong form. She has a good 2nd up record so hopefully she can improve here. Twitchy Frank @ 6/1 with Betfred (e/w) Mirette @ 12/1 with Betfred (e/w) Bendigo Race 8 5.50am The big race of the day and I have to be with Princess Jenni. I tipped her up at Moonee Valley last week and on the face of it she was a bit ordinary, but she was not suited by the way the race was run and nothing was really finishing from the back on the card. This hopefully should be run to suit and she has a really good chance for me. I am also going to cover Debt Agent who set some great finishing sectionals 1st up at Flemington earlier in the month. He was a good horse in Singapore prior to coming over here and he looks capable of running a good race in this. Princess Jenni @ 100/30 with Betfred Debt Agent @ 15/2 with Betfred (e/w 4 places)
  10. Totally get this. I am married to an Australian so the first couple of trips we made I made sure I learnt about how it all worked over there just in case we ever moved at some stage. Glad I did though as really enjoyable the Australian racing and it is good class stuff but it’s something I did almost out of necessity and trying to do more on Hong Kong racing for example doesn’t massively appeal to me. Suspect that will be the only country with racing on very soon though.
  11. On The Sod looks a very promising horse based on that performance. Will be interesting where he goes next although the situation we are currently in will have a big say I would imagine. Looks a possible John Corbet cup winner though. Getzie ran a big race and looked like he would hit the frame at one stage. The other selection was a bit disappointing. Profit though which is the key. I think I’m right in saying the next hunter chase is the one at Fairyhouse over Easter should Ireland get that far and the meeting takes place.
  12. Regular readers of my previews will know that I don't tip in Irish hunter chases that often. The main reason for that is the fact I don't usually have the time to add Irish hunter chases to my usual workload of Non-League Football and UK hunter chases. With both those two out of action at the moment it means I can actually spend a bit of time on the Irish scene and they have a hunter chase at Downpatrick on Sunday. We have two horses at the top of the market Complete Sizing and On The Sod. I know the former has Jamie Codd on, but I don't really fancy him. It wasn't a strong open that he was 2nd in last time and the time before he fell in a hunter chase at Clonmel. That was in January and it was his first run since last May when he went off 8/13, but didn't seem to handle the good ground when he was well beaten by Rewritetherules. He also finished lame that day and his history shows that he clearly has had his issues over the years. He could come on for the run last time, but I think he needs to. On The Sod is 3/3 and has Rob James on top who will be on top of the world after winning at Cheltenham last week. Had one run last season and then returned to beat Samurai Cracker by a short head in November. That is strong form as he has won a hunter chase since and run well in some good races including when falling at the last in the Naas race Billaway won in January. Last month he was an easy winner and he clocked a decent time. The odd comment after the race from his trainer suggested that he would only go for a hunter chase if it was at a left-handed venue. I find it odd because it was a right-handed track last time so I don't see it being an issue and he looks a very promising horse. Heydour was rated 123 over Rules when trained in the UK and was 2nd a couple of times at Ludlow and Huntingdon. He won a maiden point last month, but that form wouldn't be good enough to win this. That was on heavy though and his good form in the UK was on decent ground. The trainer is using the horse to help give his 18yo son experience and he now can only run in hunter chases. On his UK form he'd have a chance, but that would suggest he wants good ground and that he got away with heavy ground last time as it was a much lower class. Handy Headon has been supported and I can understand why. He was impressive when winning his maiden in January where his trainer said the next target was he hunt race at Punchestown point to point which he pushed Rewritetherules close in. Now Rewritetherules apparently wasn't at his best that day and he wasn't great at Cheltenham last week, but I still think it was a good run from Handy Headon. If Punchestown does happen then he will be aimed at the Bishopscourt Cup a race he fell in last year. Holycross Lito showed some good form in points in 2017 winning 4 times. She then went under Rules but it never really worked out for her so she went back pointing and produced a superb performance to beat top pointer Longhouse Music (who also runs here) in October. She was disappointing on his next start which was in a Clonmel hunter chase in January, but given she has been off since my guess is she had an issue that day. She has to have a good chance if at her best. Next in the betting is Longhouse Music and she has won 20 times in 36 starts in points. After the defeat to Holycross Lito she won a couple of weeks later, before being well beaten by Mighty Stowaway when only 4th. She had a break after that and returned a couple of weeks ago when winning easily at 1/2 although the horse just in front did fall at the last. The problem is her Rules form is pretty poor including in a couple of hunter chases in 2017 and 2018. With pointing being closed in Ireland she has been forced to run in a hunter chase and on her Rules form I have to rule her out. Well Bill was a winner a couple of weeks ago where he reversed form with Like A Demon who had beaten him the time before. This race was named as his next race after that win, but he has hardly been a prolific winner in points and needs to find something for me. The other one worth mentioning is Getzie who has more letters than numbers in his form, but he is clearly coming into form. 2 starts back he was very unlucky to slip on landing at 2 out and he had to be pulled up. He then duly bolted up by 12L to lose his maiden tag at the beginning of the month. Interestingly a hunter chase was mentioned as a possible aim after that win so connections clearly think he is up to running well. If he can continue on the progression then he can outrun his massive odds. On The Sod has to be the main bet for me. He looks a like he could be pretty could and he might well turn out to be hard to beat. I'm not sure about Complete Sizing and Heydour probably wants better ground. Handy Headon has been backed and can't be ruled out although Punchestown (if it is on) is clearly the main aim. Longhouse Music's rules form puts me off, but Holycross Lito who has beaten her twice anyway looks a good e/w bet at the prices as she is better than she showed last time and it could be worth forgiving her that effort. Finally I am having a small e/w bet at Getzie at 66/1 as he is clearly coming to himself and looks over priced at huge odds. On The Sod 2pts @ 2/1 with Bet365 Holycross Lito 0.75pts e/w @ 9/1 with everyone Getzie 0.25pts e/w @ 66/1 with Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power and Betfred
  13. Young Rascal a bit of a drifter before the off as the money came in for the fav, but the British horse battled well to beat the ex British horse. Going to set him up nicely for the Sydney Cup. Hopefully when I wake up there will be more money made!
  14. Future Score has come out of the Mornington Cup
  15. Yep and hopefully they will be able to keep going although given how quickly we went from Gold Cup day to having no racing at all here it clearly is a fast moving situation.