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Darran last won the day on October 14 2022

Darran had the most liked content!

About Darran

  • Birthday 08/26/1982

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  1. I have been monitoring the situation at Scunthorpe very closely and as much as I wanted to give the bet every chance I do think with the latest update the best advice now has to be to cash out of our bets. Here is a link to the latest update if you want to read it for yourselves https://t.co/F0BXSDv8lf. The fact the owner is not putting anymore money in worries me given the huge wage bill they have and as much as it mentions they don't want the playing staff to be affected I'm not sure how it can't not be. The fact they are moving to Gainsborough to play their games is going to make this worse as crowd numbers are going to drop massively. I also don't like the mention of bringing in an outside company to run the club as that could mean administrators and if that happens they will be docked 10 points straight away. To be honest it just looks like one huge mess and I just can't be certain they will see out the season let alone win the league anymore. Given we can cash out for a profit I would rather do that now than be worrying what is going to happen especially as it is a 4pt bet. We still have the Spennymoor bet and that looks a huge player at this stage. Apart from Scunthorpe's game against Buxton on Saturday there are no more games until the following Saturday so I will give it some thought about who if anyone I want to add to the bets as there is time to do so. This isn't something I like doing, but I just think it has got to the stage where it is the best thing to do.
  2. I’m holding fire for the moment as I want to wait and see what happens regarding wages paid or not at the end of the month. It’s a very bizarre set of circumstances though.
  3. Aldershot v Southend Clearly I should have tried carrying on trying to oppose Southend as they lost 2-1 to Fylde on Saturday and everything I have read on the game suggests that the players were very tired after playing on Tuesday. I'm surprised a little because they didn't have to work that hard to beat Maidenhead, but clearly that is worrying for them given they have to play again tomorrow. Not surprisingly their away form hasn't been as good as their home form and I certainly think it has been a case of them wanting to put on a performance for their fans who are going through so much at the moment. Aldershot had a good win over Boreham Wood on Saturday and their only defeat at home this season was against Chesterfield. I'm really surprised to see Southend as favs for this game and am very keen on Aldershot. Ebbsfleet v Dorking It was a dire afternoon on Saturday for the home side as Altrincham put 6 past them and that means they have won just once in 6 games. Granted they have been better at home and have conceded just 4 times in 5 games and scored 10 so that is one thing to consider, but I just can't have them as short as they are for this game and so Dorking look a value play. They lost their first 3 away games, but they had to travel to Chesterfield, Solihull and Woking so it was a tough start and they nearly got something at Chesterfield. They then drew at Oldham (where they did off course score but it wasn't given) and then beat Halifax in their last away game. They should have won on Saturday, but allowed Rochdale to score 2 late goals to beat them 2-1. I just don't think there is as much between these two sides as the bookies think so am happy to take a chance on the away side. Kidderminster v Oldham No surprise to me that the sacking of Unsworth has suddenly seen a huge upturn in performances and results for Oldham and they really ought to prove too strong for Kidderminster. Now I accept that Kiddie are putting in strong performances at home as they have had high xGs for and low xGs against, but Oldham, as they proved on Saturday when winning 4-0, carry a huge goal threat and in my view the biggest goal threat they have faced at home so far this season. Those xG's have only led to 1 goal and whilst surely they have to score at some point, it has been a huge problem. They did take the lead against Eastleigh on Saturday, but it was via a penalty. Oldham should be much shorter for this than they are. Maidenhead v Altrincham I was surprised that Maidenhead kept Gateshead quiet for as long as they did on Saturday, but in the end it was a comfortable win for the home side. They created very little yet again and also lost their 2 central defenders to injury. That isn't going to help playing a side here who scored 6 on Saturday. Alty have struggled with injuries themselves, but added a couple of players last week which clearly helped them. They have only lost 2 games all season and whilst they have drawn plenty (6 of 11 games) I do think they can beat Maidenhead. To be fair they have been better at home having drawn 3 and only conceding 3 times, but they have also only scored 3 times and I think they might struggle to keep Alty out here. Rochdale v Chesterfield For once Chesterfield didn't have to rely on a late winner on Saturday as they beat Wealdstone 3-2 having come from a goal down. Also unusually none of their goals came from a set-piece or a penalty. I counted up a couple of weeks ago and at the time just over half their goals had come from a set-piece or a penalty. They have only lost once and that was away at Altrincham and I have seen enough in Rochdale to think they can pick up 3 points here. Confidence will be high as well given the way they won on Saturday especially given they put 4 past Barnet in their last home game. Prices taken from Monday around 9am Aldershot 2.5pts @ 2/1 with Skybet, William Hill and Coral (take up to 5/4) Dorking 1pt @ 7/2 with Bet365 and Skybet (take up to 11/4) Oldham 2.5pts @ 8/5 with Bet365 (take up to 5/4) Altrincham 1pt @ 6/4 with Bet365 and Betfred (take up to 5/4) Rochdale 1pt @ 9/4 with Bet365 and Coral (take up to 15/8)
  4. Eastleigh v Kidderminster Kidderminster managed just 4 shots against Gateshead on Tuesday night and none were on target and the xG was 0.01. As I mentioned on Tuesday as much as they are creating lots of chances at home and not scoring they are creating very little away from home and obviously still not scoring. Eastleigh aren't as good as Gateshead, but they did well against Oxford City on Tuesday and were a bit unfortunate really to not see it out at 2-0. There was more than enough in that performance though to think they can beat Kidderminster and 1 goal might well be enough. Amazingly Kidderminster have been backed from 11/4 to win this game which just makes no sense to me. Gateshead v Maidenhead As mentioned above Gateshead had a very comfortable time of things on Tuesday in their 3-0 victory over Kidderminster. It was an impressive performance and based on what I saw on Tuesday night they should have just as easy a time against Maidenhead. Clearly some credit should go to Southend given their circumstances, but Maidenhead put in the worst performance I have seen so far this season. They only had 3 shots and all of them came in the 2nd half. Just everything about the performance was bad and given the way Gateshead play football I think Maidenhead will struggle to contain them. Not surprisingly they were backed after Tuesday's results, but I still think the -1 handicap is value. Solihull v Bromley Solihull have yet to lose this season, but I still think they are over achieving and I think they have a fair chance of their first defeat coming in this game. As I mentioned last Saturday Bromley have really found their form after struggling at the start and they won again on Tuesday night when beating Dagenham. Clearly this is no gimmie, but I can't have Bromley being over 2/1 for this as no way is there that big a gap between the two sides and to be honest I would expect Bromley to finish above Solihull come the end of the season so they have to be a bet here. Eastbourne v Welling Welling for me are better than their league position suggests and they look a value play to win this game against Eastbourne. This is a bit of a crunch match for the Welling manager given he was sacked from Eastbourne in the summer after they were taken over. I think he will be especially keen to prove a point here and given Eastbourne haven't really been all that convincing at all this season I don't think there is much between these two sides at all and especially not the gap the bookies have between them. Farnborough v Slough Slough have been a bit hit and miss so far this season, but they have got better as the season gone on except for the heavy defeat against Tonbridge. Beating Aveley in their last league game was a really good effort given how well they have done this season and they really ought not to have lost to Torquay as well last month. George Alexander really impressed me when he went on loan to Slough last season and they have managed to get him back this season as well and he has already scored 6 goals. I thought Farnborough would be capable of better than they have done so far and on paper they are probably stronger than Slough, but Alexander will be the best man on the pitch and I just can't make them as big as the bookies have them. Hampton & Richmond v Yeovil Hampton finally got a win on the board in their first home game of the season (they played their first few away from home) when they beat Weymouth although they did have to rely on a penalty that night. Yeovil are definitely better than Hampton and whilst they haven't always been at their best on the pitch, I'm not surprised they have been well backed since I sent the tips out last night. Chatham v Lewes (Isthmian Premier) Chatham won their first 5 games, but their last 2 games have not been so good having lost 5-1 to Cray, which was their first win of the season, and then they drew with Potters Bar 0-0 last week, which was their first point of the season. Lewes started well also winning their first 3 they then drew against Hornchurch and Bognor. Those were decent efforts given Hornchurch were the ante-post favs and Bognor have drawn 4 of their 7 games so are clearly hard to beat. They did lose to Folkestone in their last league game, but bounced back to beat Ascot in the FA Cup last week. They look value to me to get back to winning ways in the league. Salisbury v Bracknell (Southern Premier South) I really don't understand the prices here and it is almost like it has been based on what the teams were doing last season rather than this one. Salisbury of course are one of our ante-post bets and they remain unbeaten after 8 league games having won 5 and drawn 3. They had an easy time of things in the FA Cup last week beating Mousehole 5-0 as well and they should be favs to win this game for me. Bracknell had a good FA Cup win themselves beating Havant, but their away form in the league has been poor having lost 3 and drawn 1. The losses were to Gosport, Poole and Walton so 3 of the better teams in the league, but then Salisbury are also one of the better sides in the division and I just don't see how they can be nearly 2/1 to win this. NB prices from Thursday evening Eastleigh 2pts @ 29/20 with Bet365 (6/4 with Skybet and take up to 11/10) Gateshead -1 2.5pts @ 11/10 with Skybet (13/10 with Paddy Power and Betfair and take up to 5/6) Bromley 1pt @ 23/10 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and Coral (Bet365 are 5/2 and take up to 2/1) Welling 1pt @ 3/1 with Skybet, William Hill and Bet365 (16/5 with Betfred and take up to 9/4) Slough 1pt @ 16/5 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and Bet365 (take up to 5/2) Yeovil 1pt 6/4 with Bet365, William Hill and Betfred (take up to 5/4) Lewes 1pt @ 2/1 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 7/4) Salisbury 1pt @ 15/8 with Betfred and Skybet (take up to 5/4)
  5. Chesterfield v Dagenham & Redbridge I'm happy to oppose Chesterfield again. They can't stop leaking goals and as their assistant said after the win at Aldershot, they can't keep having to score 4 goals to win games. Clearly they are the most likely winners, but Dagenham have been much improved since their shocking start to the season and they were the first team to beat Barnet. 5/1 is too big for me and I am happy to take a chance. Oldham v Dorking In some ways Oldham were unlucky not to win against Gateshead last week, but I think Gateshead more than deserved the point. The defending for the Gateshead 2nd was awful as well and a team like Oldham, especially as they were a goal up, should have defended much better than they did. Unsworth continues to look clueless and I am happy to take them on here. Again on paper they should win this and Dorking are hardly in great form themselves having only beaten Southend so far, but they should have beaten Eastleigh last week and I think they have the potential to make things tricky for Oldham. The longer it stays 0-0 or if Dorking can take the lead then the more the crowd will be calling for Unsworth to go and that will make it a pretty toxic environment for the homeside. Scarborough v Brackley Brackley had more than enough chances to have won for us against Kings Lynn on Tuesday night, but in the end they had to settle for a point having scored a very late equaliser. I think they are a fair bet to beat a Scarborough side who lost to Southport on Tuesday and weren't great in getting a point against Gloucester last Saturday. Canvey Island v Whitehawk (Isthmian Premier) After losing to Margate on the opening day, newly promoted Whitehawk have done very well. They drew with Hastings, who are yet to lose, beat Billericay, who have won every other game and beat Horsham who have done well so far as well. That's strong form for me and they look a spot of value to beat a Canvey Island side who have struggled to find the form that saw them finish in the play-offs last season. They did beat Concord a couple of weeks ago, but they have lost every game and the 3 previous defeats were not great. AFC Totton v Hendon and Gosport v Hungerford (Southern Premier South) Going to double up the 2 home sides here. Both have been backed which isn't a surprise. Hendon have drawn 4 of their 6 games so far, but Totton should be good enough to get the 3 points. Hungerford have struggled against the better sides so far and Gosport are clearly one of those at the moment so again ought to be too strong. Prices from 8pm Friday night Dagenham & Redbridge 1pt @ 5/1 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair and Coral (take up to 15/4) Dorking 1pt @ 9/2 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Coral (take up to 15/4) Brackley 1pt @ 7/5 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 5/4) Whitehawk 1pt @ 2/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Skybet, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 13/8) AFC Totton/Gosport 1pt double @ 9/4 with Skybet and Betfred (take up to 2/1)
  6. Alfreton v Scunthorpe I put Scunthorpe up last Saturday when they were odds against and they lost to Curzon although they were a bit unlucky to. I watched the first half against Scarborough on Monday and they looked very good, eventually winning the game 4-1. Alfreton allowed Kings Lynn to have 60% of the ball on Monday and I can imagine that they will allow Scunthorpe a lot of the ball here and just try to defend and then hit them on the break. I think Scunthorpe are more than good enough to overcome those tactics though and I'm going to back them at odds on against again to win. Curzon Ashton v Tamworth Both these sides have got off to very good starts to the season and Curzon are unbeaten having won 3 and drawn 3, which includes that win against Scunthorpe mentioned above. They haven't been creating too many chances of in recent games, but they are being very clinical and they scored with all 4 shots on target on Monday against Peterborough. This is no gimmie as Tamworth look decent as well, but given they are at home I am surprised that Curzon are the outsiders so I for me there is value in backing the home side. Farsley Celtic v Kings Lynn Celtic were unbeaten going into Monday's game at Chester, but they really struggled in that game only having 2 shots during the 90 minutes. They ended up losing 2-0, but I think they are value to get back to winning ways here. They have drawn all 3 of their home games so far, but they have played Chorley, South Shields and Tamworth and I think Kings Lynn aren't as good as those 3 teams at the moment. I know they finally won on Monday, but I'm not sure it was a sign that they were going to go flying up the table and I just think that Farsley are too big a price to win this. Eastbourne v Weston-Super-Mare A battle between two seaside towns and one I think might be won by the away side. Eastbourne have really struggled so far this season having only won their opening game against Hampton and they have lost their last 4. There were some signs of improvement against Chelmsford, but this new side just seem to be struggling performance wise. Weston were poor in 3-0 losses to Slough and Farnborough, but were much better on Monday against Hemel and should have won rather than drawing 1-1. I think Weston are a small bit of value to win this. Welling v St Albans There has been money for Welling and I am not surprised as they had been playing fairly well and just not getting the results, before getting 6/6 points over the bank holiday weekend when they beat Havant and Tonbridge. I watched the 2nd half when I put up St Albans to beat Havant the other week and felt like we had got away with one as I wasn't overly impressed. They have duly lost all 3 games since then against Torquay, Taunton and Bath. Their xG's have been below 1 in all 3 of those games and they just aren't creating decent chances at the moment. Welling come into this full of confidence and I would make them favourites. Prices from around 5pm on Friday afternoon Scunthorpe 2pts @ 21/20 with William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 10/11) Curzon Ashton 1pt @ 17/10 with William Hill and Bet365 (take up to 6/4) Farsley Celtic 1pt @ 21/10 with Bet365, Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 13/8) Weston-Super-Mare 1pt @ 2/1 with everyone (take up to 7/4) Welling 1pt @ 13/8 with Bet365, Betfair, Betfred and Paddy Power (take up to 11/8)
  7. No the national league stream their games for £9.50 a match day though
  8. Scunthorpe ought to win, but Scarborough are dangerous.
  9. AFC Fylde v Altrincham Altrincham fully deserved to beat Chesterfield on Saturday and I will write more on them in a minute, but it was an impressive performance and it means they are unbeaten. I've been a bit disappointed with Fylde so far as I thought they would hit the ground running after winning the title last season, but it hasn't really happened for them. I nearly opposed them on Saturday where they lost to Hartlepool on the TV. I was only able to watch the first half, but it was very easy for the home side and it highlighted the gulf that Fylde face at the moment against the better sides in the division and I think Altrincham are one of those. I'm always slightly wary about teams backing up after just the 48 hour break otherwise I would have a bigger bet because I would make them slight favs to win this. Bromley v Southend Bromley have been poor so far and they have yet to win. Arguably they have been fortunate to even get three points on the board. Clearly there is a chance Southend might not even exist in just over a months time, but that hasn't bothered the players too much. I watched them on Friday night against Eastleigh and they were very good and it is clear they want to put on a performance for the fans. The small squad is a small concern given the quick turnaround, but having played on Friday night instead of Saturday should help on that front. They have been backed already and I'm not surprised as I think they will win again. Chesterfield v Hartlepool I keep reading and hearing that Chesterfield are the best team in the league, while they haven't shown they are on the pitch so far and yet again they were pretty ordinary on Saturday. They managed just 4 shots against Altrincham and the goal, which was from a corner (just as it was against Oldham), was their only shot on target. In the last half hour of the game, where the home side were really on top, they only had 41% of the ball and in the 1st half, where they had more of the ball, they were just as ineffective at creating chances as they were against Oldham. Hartlepool are top of the table and deservedly so as they have looked very good so far. For some reason the home side are being backed even though they are already odds on and that makes no sense to me at all. Right now Hartlepool are the better side and whilst that could change tomorrow, they are a fantastic price. Kings Lynn v Alfreton Kings Lynn have been pretty woeful so far this season. They have yet to win and have even been fortunate at times to pick up the 3 points they have. They hosted Gloucester last Saturday and even though we have been pretty rubbish ourselves we should have beaten them. They are the only side to have lost to Chester and Chorley got their first win against them on Saturday. Alfreton have been their usual solid selves so far although they will be a bit disappointed to lose 3-2 to a Darlington side who hadn't won prior to Saturday. Hopefully that won't happen again here and they are too big a price not to back against a home side who have yet to get going. Havant & Waterlooville v Yeovil Havant are bottom of the table and just as per last season they are struggling at home having lost both games so far. They also lost at Welling on Saturday who were picking up their first points of the season. They now have to host a Yeovil side who ought to be challenging for the title and are currently in 3rd place in the table. I'm not surprised they are being backed, but for me the price hasn't gone far enough. Prices taken from 9pm last night Altrincham 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365 and BetVictor (21/10 with Hills and Coral and take up to 6/4) Southend 1pt @ 5/4 with Bet365, Coral and Skybet (13/10 with Hills and take up to 11/10) Hartlepool 2pts @ 16/5 with Betfair, Paddy Power and Betfair (Bet365 are 100/30 and take up to 2/1) Alfreton 1pt @ 13/5 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 2/1) Yeovil 2.5pts @ 11/10 with Bet365 (23/20 with Hills and take up to 4/5) Basingstoke v AFC Totton The home side have won their last two matches, but neither were as good as Totton and whilst the number of goals they conceded on Saturday is a slight concern, I still think they will be too strong for Basingstoke and I am surprised they aren't favourites. Worthing v Weymouth, Swindon Supermarine v Merthyr and Haringey v Enfield I am going to do a treble with three sides who are all a shade of odds on to win. Worthing have looked very good so far and were unlucky to lose the game that they have done. Weymouth have been very in and out so far and were well beaten on Saturday against Chelmsford. I think Worthing will have too much for them. Then we have two sides who are top in their respective leagues (Southern Premier South and the Isthmian Premier) and who currently have 100% travel to sides who have yet to record a point. I think that will continue and with both a shade of odds on I am happy to stick both in a double. Prices taken at 9.50 this morning AFC Totton 1pt @ 7/5 with Betfred (6/4 with William Hills and take up to 5/4) Worthing/Merthyr/Enfield 1pt treble @ 5.4/1 with Betfred (higher is available with others)
  10. A very tough end to the season with plenty of shocks especially Stern Idol who dropped away just as tamely as he did in the Grand Annual. Hard to know why as it certainly wasn't stamina. Possibly he doesn't like getting pestered for the lead, but he's way better than that. There was talk they might bring him to Europe and I think at his best he's good enough to win a decent race over here. Crosshill annoyingly saw his saddle slip very early on and he had to be pulled up. Nelson's race was voided due to an injured jockey and Shakespere was a non runner. All that means I end up making a tiny loss for the season which isn't ideal, but sometimes that is the way it goes. Look forward to doing it all again from March.
  11. A cracking final meeting of the season to look forward to at Ballarat with plenty of ex-European horses in action including Nelson. Stern Idol is not surprisingly a warm order for the Grand National at the end of the card. Race 1 Botti has run well in two hurdles starts in Australia having finished 2nd at Pakenham and then 3rd in a BM120 at Sandown. He goes back into maiden company here, but my concern is that he also drops in trip as he looks like he needs further based on his two runs so far. His jockey also said the same to the stewards after his Sandown run. He clearly has his chance, but chances are he will get going too late. Saint Eustace ran his best race yet over hurdles a couple of weeks ago when just being denied by 0.2L. If he can back that up then he has a chance, but he hasn't always looked the straightforward. Second Act is related to Stern Idol and has also come over from France although he failed to finish in a couple of hurdle races there. In Australia he's had 3 hurdle trials and has looked good enough in them. He has run in a couple of maidens on the flat as well finishing 2nd to Crosshill 1st up and then winning 2nd up. Clearly has ability and given how they train them in France he will have been well schooled before he even got to Oz. Shakespeare was 3rd on his hurdle debut a couple of weeks ago and was behind Saint Eustace. He travelled well for a long way, but faded after the last although he should improve for the run. Chatelaine won a BM78 at Sandown on the flat back in March, but hasn't been as good since. I did like the way he jumped in his trial a couple of weeks ago although he wasn't exactly put under too much pressure by the other runners that day. I think this is a tricky race to start with. Second Act has the potential, but he's priced up accordingly against some horses who have run well in maidens so far this season. I will take a small chance on Shakespeare who looked the winner for a long way, but should come on for the run and hopefully he can have more of a finishing kick here. Shakespeare 0.5pts @ 16/5 with Bet365 Race 2 Dr Colin is a fairly short price favourite here, but I am happy enough to take him on. He did win on the flat at Geelong last time, but it was only a BM58 so it was in the lowest grade. His trial hurdle win before that was only against 2 other rivals and I think he's been put in too short on the back of those efforts. Quota is 2nd in the betting at the time of writing and I don't fancy him much either. He was well beaten on the flat last time and his hurdle trials didn't so a great deal. The Awesome Sun, Raise Your Sights and What Revolution were 2nd, 3rd and 4th to Platinum Spirit a couple of weeks ago. I think the form will be upheld here as I liked the way The Awesome Sun battled on in the closing stages. I will back him and I will also back Three Over Two. There was some promise in his 5th at Sale and he followed that up with a 3rd at Pakenham just behind Platinum Spirit who finished 2nd. He finished closer to him than The Awesome Sun did at Coleriane so I will also back him as I think he's a solid yardstick. The Awesome Sun 0.5pts @ 9/2 with everyone Three Over Two 1pt e/w @ 12/1 with Bet365 and William Hill Race 3 All of these ran in various races at Coleraine a couple of weeks ago and Jekyll'n'hyde ran the fastest time. I was tempted to go with him, but I'm not certain that he is the best horse because that race was run at a strong pace which meant it was no real surprise the time was quicker. Platinum Spirit was visually the most impressive, but he's priced up accordingly. You can give most of the others a chance as well so it just looks another of those real tricky handicap hurdles we have seen in recent weeks so I'm going to leave it alone. Race 4 The feature hurdle on the card and at the time of writing Raise You Ten has been backed into favouritism. He has only had one start over hurdles and he took the opening maiden on this card 24 months ago when looking impressive. He clearly had an injury as he went missing 88 weeks. He's had a couple of solid runs on the flat so far this prep to help get him ready for this, but I just don't think he should be favourite. If this was a handicap he would be getting lots more weight from Bedford and to go straight from a maiden into this sort of company is tough, even if you are trained by Maher and Eustace. Bedford has really surprised me in recent weeks as he has really hit form. He took a winner of 1 at Warrnambool and then took the big hurdle on the Pakenham card a couple of weeks late. I thought he ran really well in the Grand National Hurdle last time, where it looked like he just didn't stay so the drop back in trip should help. He has the best hurdles form in the race and for me is the one they have to beat. Instigator was just 0.75L behind Bedford at Pakenham and wasn't that far behind him at Sandown so I'm sure he will run his usual solid race again. Dashing Willoughby finally won again a couple of starts back and was then 2nd in the BM120 on the Sandown card earlier in the month. He wanted to hang in behind the winner that day though and this should be tougher. I am going to be sticking with Bedford though. Bedford 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365 Race 5 The bookies have Nelson and King's Charisma as joint favs for this and preference for me is to go with the chasing experience of Nelson. I never did get to the bottom if Nelson was the first horse to run in the Arc and then to run over fences, but he was 2nd on his chasing debut before winning well at Coleraine a couple of weeks ago. He obviously has a big weight here, but he has the class edge for me over his rivals. King's Charisma is making his chasing debut and he has had a decent enough season over hurdles apart from last time where he was very disappointing. He's had 1 steeple trial and he jumped out to his right a bit which would be a small concern here and is one of the reasons why I would rather go with the chasing experience of Nelson. It's hard to see anything else winning as Nelson has the beating of a few of these already from the victory a couple of weeks ago. Nelson 2pts @ 6/5 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred Race 6 The Grand National Steeplechase is the big race on the card and I just don't see how Stern Idol gets beaten. He's only been beaten twice in Australia over obstacles that was in the big hurdle on this card last season and in the Grand Annual where he seemingly didn't stay. Bell Ex One who beat him last year bids to do the same here, but I don't think he's been quite as good this year and he looked a bit slow over his fences in his steeple trial. Stern Idol won the Crisp Steeplechase by 25L at Sandown last time beating a few of these in the process. That was over 4200m and he has 4500m here, but he would have won over 4500m at Sandown and that is more of a stamina test given the hill there whereas Ballarat is flat. Like I say I can't see him not winning. San Remo won the Grand National Hurdle at Sandown, but his chasing form previously was nowhere as good as his hurdles form. I guess he could have improved, but I can't see him improving enough to get near Stern Idol. Stern Idol clocked a 5 seconds quicker time as well which takes some doing. A few of these were behind Stern Idol in the Crisp, but I don't really see how any of them can reverse the form here. The one horse who I do think will run better though is Crosshill who was a bit disappointing at Sandown, but his jockey thinks the track didn't suit him and he will prefer Ballarat. I thought he ran well in the Grand Annual to finish 3rd and this shorter trip should suit him. We know he has the class from when he was trained in Ireland and he looks over priced to hit the frame. I know he's 1/2, but I think even at those odds he's value so will be having a max bet on him. Stern Idol 5pts @ 1/2 with everyone Crosshill 0.5pts to place @ 3.4/1 with Bet365 0.25pts to win @ 25/1 with Bet365
  12. It's my birthday today so hopefully I can make it a profitable one. Aldershot v Wealdstone Aldershot denied us last week as they nearly got the 3 points against York, but York scored in injury time. I think the game said more about how much York have struggled so far rather than Aldershot being anything special. We were unlucky not to collect on Wealdstone last Tuesday against Bromley and they deservedly got back to winning ways on Saturday when beating Fylde 3-2. The winner came very late on, but we have to factor in that Houghton scored one of his specials from inside his own half for Fylde which clearly is a bit of a freak goal. Wealdstone have been better than Aldershot for me so far this season so I am happy to back them again. Altrincham v Chesterfield I have watched most of Chesterfield's last 2 games against Oxford and Oldham and I have not been impressed at all. They were lucky to get the 3 points against Oxford, who played very well, and then they lacked ideas against an Oldham side who basically just sat back and let them have the ball. Oldham were even worse themselves although they did manage to create the best chances of the game despite being so poor. Often for me Oldham didn't even press Chesterfield that much in the final 3rd and yet time and time again they lacked the quality to create a meaningful chance. For me this was a game Chesterfield should have won comfortably given how it played out, but the fact they didn't spoke volumes for me. Altrincham are more than good enough to cause them big problems and they have yet to taste defeat this season with 3 draws and a victory over Woking. They look decent value to win this. Curzon Ashton v Scunthorpe Curzon have scored in every game, but apart from when they scored 3 against Darlington on day 1 they have really struggled to create many opportunites with xG's of 0.83, 0.63 and 0.3. The game against Buxton last week must have been a tough watch with Buxton's xG just 0.28 and they only managed 9 shots between them. Granted they haven't lost yet, but they host the best team in the division and I don't think there will be too many chances to back them at odds against this season so I will take this one. Mickleover v Hitchin (Southern Premier Central) I said in the ante-post preview for this league that I wanted to add Mickleover to the bets, but I thought they were a little shorter than I was expecting. However not only am I going to back them to win on Saturday, I am also going to back them for the title. They have had a superb start to the season and I want them onside now even though I am taking a shorter price of 9/2. Our only bets so far were Coalville and they had a shocker last week losing 6-1 to Needham Market which was a huge surprise. I still have the belief that they will go close despite that, but Mickleover look to me like they will be big players. Hitchin have won 3 of their first 4 games, but they have had a kind fixture list and lost to Needham themselves. Since I wrote the above last night they have now gone odds on for tomorrow so the price has gone for me. I would want at least Evens to get involved. AFC Totton v Hanwell (Southern Premier South) I think this looks the best bet of the weekend. Hanwell won their first 2 games, but that was only against Didcot (lost every game) and Basingstoke (struggled in their first 3 games). They then hosted Merthyr last week and lost 4-1 which suggests to me they are going to struggle against the better sides of the division which Totton should be one. One of our ante-post picks they have had a very good start to the season winning 3 and the only loss was to one of our other ante-post bets Salisbury. For me they should have too much for Hanwell and look a good price. National League South I haven't had too many bets so far in this league and I think it has been a tricky league to call so far. I have however been very impressed with Worthing and I am going to top up our ante-post bet on them to make it a point e/w. They won their first 3 games, including winning 3-0 at Torquay, before losing to Aveley last Saturday. Now I watched Aveley play Eastbourne last Monday and I was pretty impressed with the home side. They deserved the 3 points and I thought they looked the type of side who would make things difficult for plenty of teams this season so I wasn't entirely surprised that they managed to beat Worthing. However they only had 4 shots in the game and managed to score twice and Worthing had 21 shots. They also had a penalty which they scored but the ref ruled it out, which was the right decision, but then the ref gave a free kick to Aveley instead of allowing the penalty to be retaken. That goes in and obviously they get at least a point. Prices from Friday afternoon Wealdstone 1pt @ 9/5 with William Hill and Coral (2/1 with 365 and a little bit on Betfair exchange take up to 13/8) Altrincham 1pt @ 3/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (7/2 with Bet365 and take up to 5/2) Scunthorpe 2pts @ Evs with basically everyone (Hills are 11/10 and take up to 10/11) AFC Totton 3pts @ Evs with Bet365, Skybet and Betfred (take up to 8/11) Ante-Post Worthing 0.5pts e/w @ 9/1 with Bet365 (Betway are 12/1 and Skybet 10/1) Mickleover 1pt @ 9/2 with Bet365 and William Hill
  13. I don't think the ground issue will make a difference although it is a small worry obviously. The players are all on 2 year contracts. I think the fans are probably nervy given what a nightmare time of things they have had in recent years.
  14. The final meeting of the season is at Ballarat on Sunday so I have done the totals for the season ahead of it. I have staked 93pts and the returns are 98.71 so a small profit for the season so far. Hopefully it will go in the right direction on Sunday and I can make it another profitable season.
  15. It’s a very quiet day for me today so quiet I forgot to put them up. York and Boston the only bets and just a point on them.
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