Darran

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Darran last won the day on September 7

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About Darran

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    aka Addpea
  • Birthday 08/26/82

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  1. A few games at step 3 this mid-week and a home double in the Evo-Stik Southern Premier South makes some appeal. Chesham have been really poor so far this season having won just once and drawn just once so far this season. The win against Farnborough was two games ago, but in three out of their last 4 league games they have conceded 4 goals each time including on Saturday when Salisbury put 4 past them. They go to Beaconsfield who have only lost twice so far this term and although they have yet to win at home in 4 league games this looks the perfect game to get their first home 3 points of the season. Walton Casuals is the other bet and they host Staines. Casuals didn't win any of their first 5 league games, but they have won 3 of their next 5 and are looking in much better shape now. Crucially they host a Staines side who are looking in desperate trouble. They have won just twice in the league (one of which was against Chesham) and have lost their other 8. In their last 4 league games they have conceded a huge 18 goals. Also these two sides played each other in the league cup earlier in the month and Casuals won 6-1 that night. It is hard to see how Staines are going to turn that around given how they have played since and are conceding goals for fun. Now Oddschecker isn't playing ball with this league so I have only checked 3 firms and Bet365 and Betfred were joint best of those 3 with odds of 1.7/1 on the double. I am having a point on that.
  2. Cheers everyone and a much better October than September so far thankfully. A response to the above. I don't keep a record of the profit/loss. I personally think they can be a bit misleading as not everyone will have backed the tip at the price I have put them up at either because they don't have an account with the firm in question or because the price has gone. At the end of the day the stuff I put up is for free so my view is that people either follow or they don't. There are 8 years worth of posts on here if people want to see what I have done in the past. The fact that so many read a Non-League thread which mainly just has my tips on it (although others are more than welcome and are encouraged) says a lot and the fact that Paul wants me to put my tips exclusively on Punters Lounge also must mean something. I agree that you do need to dig a bit deeper if you want to make money on Non-League football, but the bookies obviously spend very little time in pricing it up themselves so you will get many more errors than you do in the Premier League for example. When it comes to football Non-League is the only thing I bet on so my focus is only on that.
  3. Certainly has a fair chance of happening if Salford continue in the form they have been in in the last few weeks.
  4. Surprised to see them on the drift. Can only possibly think it’s people going for the new manager syndrome with Braintree, but I see that make little difference as they are just not good enough.
  5. Good to have a really good Saturday last weekend with 3 of the 4 National League bets landing. Didn't have as much fortune on the FA Cup front but the next round should bring plenty of opportunities on that front next weekend. This Saturday it is Non-League Day and I urge anyone reading this who can go to a game at the weekend to go and do so especially if you haven't been to watch your local team before. I will be watching Billericay v Gloucester and as much as I fully expect my team to lose I am really interested to see Billericay in action especially from an ante-post perspective as I am sure a few of you have got some fancy prices about them. Hopefully it will be a profitable Non-League Day and I have five bets. Dagenham & Redbridge v Wrexham (National League) Surely Peter Taylor won't be in the Dagenham hot-seat for too much longer. They had a 4 game unbeaten spell, but apart from that have looked every bit relegation candidates and I don't see Taylor bringing about any improvement and he is the wrong man for the job. Wrexham on the other-hand have their eyes firmly on promotion although I suspect that will be via the play-offs rather than winning the title. Their only defeat in their last 8 games was when I put them up to beat Sutton, but that looks every bit the one off I thought it would be and Dagenham are no Sutton. Skybet are even money if you can get on although the shade of odds on elsewhere is acceptable as well. Eastleigh v Aldershot (National League) Slightly risky to want to back a team who have only picked up one point on their travels this season playing against a team who have won 4 on the bounce and are unbeaten in 6, but I think Aldershot are worth backing here. As I highlighted last week Aldershot are an improving side and they dispatched Halifax without too many worries last weekend. I am hoping that they can continue that on their travels and the fact they got a draw at Hartlepool two weeks ago gives me confidence that they can. Eastleigh lost their manager in the week and it might just upset their good run of form. This could be the perfect time to be playing them and the Aldershot players should be full of confidence at the moment. The 61/25 about an away with Marathon is way too big for me. Halifax v Chesterfield (National League) Yes I am going to oppose Chesterfield again in the live TV game on BT Sport at Saturday teatime. Yet again they are short price favourites away from home and although we didn't get a result in Chesterfield's last two games as they have drawn them they are a stupid price yet again. Now granted Halifax aren't exactly winning football matches either at the moment, but at home only Hartlepool have beaten them so far this term. Either side of that defeat they have drawn against Leyton Orient and AFC Fylde. It has been 8 games since a win, but they have drawn 5 of them. The two 3-0 defeats have both come on their travels and as pointed out above Aldershot are improving fast. Chesterfield have scored just 3 times in their last 10 games which is pretty shocking really and given Halifax have only scored 7 in that time we could be looking at a pretty dull affair (a bit like most of the games BT have chosen this season as they have made some shocking choices), but Halifax are good value 9/4 with Bet 365 to win the game. Some people might want the draw onside, but I think having a small bet on the no goalscorer at 15/2 (Bet 365) and on 1-1 at 11/2 (Betway and BetVictor) is the best way to cover the win bet and if Halifax win 1-0 via an own goal we have hit the jackpot! Solihull v Ebbsfleet (National League) Opposing Ebbsfleet got us a nice profit last weekend and although their away form is better than their home form I am more than happy to take them on again. They have only lost one on their travels, but that came in a heavy 4-1 defeat at Wrexham. Prior to that they had drawn at Dover which sums up their level at the moment. They did beat Dagenham in their last away game, but again that hardly says a lot and this match should be much tougher. Ebbsfleet were poor at home to Harrogate last Saturday and they again continue to look a fair way of the pace. Solihull weren't great themselves last weekend when losing 2-0 at Barnet, but their away performances haven't been as good as their home ones. So far in 7 home games they have conceded just 3 times and lost just the once to Hartlepool. I have put them up in both their last two home victories and I think they can land a 3rd home win on the bounce. 5/4 with William Hill and Betfred looks a big price to me as I would make it an odds on shot. Chippenham v Dartford (National League South) As I have mentioned before Dartford look a million miles away from the team who nearly won the league last season, yet they are still being priced up as if they are. They did manage a 1-1 draw against Billericay in their last league away game, but they have lost 3 of their other 5 without scoring a goal and were hammered 4-1 at Oxford City in the FA Cup last Saturday. Again Chippenham are a side who I have written about in recent weeks and although they cost me the FA Cup acca a couple of weeks ago they have been playing well otherwise. They beat Hendon in the FA Cup easily in the week and at home they have won 4 out of five in the league including beating Billericay. Chippenham should be favourites for this and it is crazy that they aren't. BetVictor's 9/5 is a very attractive price. Wrexham 2.5pts @ Evs with Skybet Aldershot 1pt @ 61/25 with Marathon Halifax 1pt at 9/4 with Bet365 No goalscorer 0.5pts @ 15/2 with Bet365 and 1-1 @ 11/2 with Betway and BetVictor Solihull 3pts @ 5/4 with William Hill and Betfred Chippenham 1pt @ 9/5 with BetVictor
  6. Tamplin sacking wheeler looked a crazy decision at the time but it could just turn out to be the best one he has made yet as Dean Brennan has made an instant impact and they are a better side with him as manager.
  7. I think they will be too strong for them.
  8. They did have some issues but all sorted and players playing well for the new manager.
  9. FA cup bets. Have no time for now to put any meat on the bones but I have a 6 fold which pays nearly 11/2 with BetVictor and about 5/1 with Hills plus one possible upset. Chorley to beat Peterborough Sports Brackley Town to beat Marine Slough to beat Bristol Manor Farm Billericay to beat Whitehawk Torquay to beat Brightlingsea Regent Woking to beat AFC Kempston 1pt Acca Kidsgrove to beat Workington 1pt at 14/5 with Hills
  10. Think at the very least you will lose the win part as Billericay will win the league in my view. He's off to a decent start, but I am still not sure he was the right man for the job as he's never been down this low before. Jury still out for me, but we shall see what happens in the next few weeks.
  11. It is FA Cup weekend and yet again the bookies have been slow to price those matches up. Bet365 and BetVictor have so I will wait to see if we get any more prices before putting anything up. As it stands I have 4 bets in the National League for Saturday. Aldershot v Halifax On the face of it the home side probably look on the short side at 5/4 to win this, but I think they look a fair price to do just that. Gary Waddock hasn't minced his words at times this season, but not surprisingly he has been a bit more upbeat of late and he certainly was after Aldershot had got their first away point of the season at Hartlepool last Saturday. It was a good performance from them and Waddock was right to highlight the fact that the new squad are starting to improve and get things together. As I mentioned in the Maidstone preview last week Aldershot battered Maidstone but still lost in their last home game, but that was actually only their 2nd defeat at home this season and they have won 4 of their 6 home games. That is key for me that despite their poor start to the season that has been pretty much down to their away form rather than their pretty solid home form. Halifax have had some tough away games and draws at Sutton and Wrexham are good efforts, although that Sutton match was a dire game in general. Their only win on their travels remains the opening day win at bottom of the table Braintree and given they only managed 2 shots on target against Bromley they were slightly fortunate to get a point last weekend. I think this game is tougher and with Aldershot solid at home and performances improving I think they can continue their rise up the table here. Chesterfield v AFC Fylde The price on Fylde has come in from the silly opening quotes from the bookies which had them as the outsiders for this. The plus is they are unbeaten on the road, but the negative is that they have drawn 6 of their 7 away matches. Strangely given how strong they are going forward at home they can't score on their travels. They have only scored 5 times and 3 of those came in one game at Ebbsfleet. Surely in this game Dave Challinor has to make sure his side are a bit more attacking minded given Chesterfield are making some really poor defensive errors of late. I read a preview last weekend which suggested Chesterfield have defended OK of late, which is just bizarre because as I pointed out last weekend they have certainly not defended OK in recent matches. It has been a comedy of errors really and although they only conceded once against Maidstone it was a bad one to concede. Surely the likes of Danny Rowe are going to be gifted a few chances against a Chesterfield side who don't really look like winning anytime soon. 6/4 is still available with Skybet and Sportingbet and it is still a high enough price for me to want to play. Dover v Salford Another team who have shortened up are Salford which again isn't a surprise. Football can make fools of you sometimes, but I just don't see how Dover can get anything out of this game. They have looked a really poor side in most of their games this season and they were especially bad against Barrow last weekend. Maybe the players will raise themselves for this one, but even so they just don't look good enough and manager Chris Kinnear pretty much hinted at that after the game. Salford on the other-hand are threatening to run away with the league and some of the football they have been playing is some of the best I have seen in this division for a few years. They have just got stronger as the season has gone on and they comfortably beat Maidenhead 3-0 last weekend in what could have been a tricky game for them. As long as they don't drop their standards and get complacent they could really batter Dover this weekend. I think at the very least they should cover the -1 handicap and that is a big price at 12/5 (Betfair/Paddy Power) and looks the best bet in the division this weekend. Ebbsfleet v Harrogate There was a much improved performance from Ebbsfleet last Saturday, but it did come against Dagenham so how much do we read into it? I do think the signing of Reise Allassani who is a player I know well having been at Dulwich last season is a very good one and he was man of the match in the Dagenham game. The big problem for them though has been their home form and given they play a Harrogate side who aren't really showing any signs of slowing down after their flying start to the season I am happy to take Ebbsfleet on. Harrogate were the first team to defeat Boreham Wood at home last weekend and Wood are always hard to beat at home so that is no mean feat. Skybet and BetVictor are 2/1 about an away win and that is too big for me. Aldershot 1pt @ 5/4 with BetVictor/William Hill AFC Fylde 1pt @ 6/4 with Skybet/Sportingbet Salford -1 2pts @ 12/5 with Betfair/Paddy Power Harrogate 1pt @ 2/1 with Skybet/BetVictor
  12. Betfred have handicap betting on St Albans v Corinthian casuals tonight and the home side really should cover the -1 handicap which is priced up at 5/4. As we know the away side conceded 6 on Saturday and are only in the cup because another team got thrown out for playing an illegible player. I’ve had 2 points on it
  13. Saturday was much better and pleasing to get a winning Nap at last with Biggleswade. Enfield did the business with ease and Solihull won with the last kick of the game. There isn't a huge amount of games this week, but I like the look of 3 teams all around the even money mark. Given I fancy them all the same strength I am going to just go with a point treble rather than the 3 singles although feel free to play them how you want. The first team is Chester who host Hereford. Take away Chester's bizarre 8-1 defeat at Blyth and their 3-1 loss to Telford (came after two weeks off so they were rusty), then Chester have been mainly very good so far this season. Saturday they drew 0-0 with a Chorley side still flying at the top of the table and they now host a mangerless Hereford who have only picked up 1 point in their last 6 games. They did come from behind to beat Truro in the FA Cup, but then lost 3-0 to Spennymoor on Saturday. It is hard to see them getting much out of this match and they aren't in a great shape on the pitch at the moment. For some reason Chester are drifiting, but they should be odds on given how these two sides are playing at the moment. The other two teams both come from the Evo-Stik Northern Premier. Grantham have won 4 of their last 5 and their only dropped points in that spell came when I tipped them up to beat North Ferriby and they blew a 2 goal lead! They have only lost once in the league so far this season and got a 90th minute winner against Whitby on Saturday. Hednesford aren't in great form at the moment having lost 3 of their last 4 and their only win coming against a poor Workington side. Warrington look a solid bet to see off Mickleover Sports. Warrington went so well last season finishing in 3rd place and I wondered if they would be able to repeat that, but they went to the top of the table after beating ante-post favourites South Shields 3-0 on Saturday. That made it five wins on the bounce and their only defeat came on the opening day of the season. Mickleover's two wins this season have come against North Ferriby and Hednesford which pretty much sums up how good they are. The only danger for me is if Warrington allow their standards to drop after such a good win at the weekend, but they should win this and they should be shorter than a shade of odds on to do so. The treble pays 6.8/1 with BetVictor.
  14. Cheers nice to have the two strongest bets win as that has been a struggle at times this season and nice to have a last kick of the game winner from Solihull. A good end to a poorish month.
  15. Got to get back to winning ways on Tuesday after what has been a pretty tough month. Even on Tuesday we still had a very late goal go against which stopped the double from landing. Hopefully we can end the month on a high and I have 5 bets. Havant & Waterlooville v Solihull Moors (National League) Solihull's away form doesn't quite match the heights of their home form as they have lost 3 and won 3. However those loses came against Fylde, Harrogate and Leyton Orient so you can hardly knock them for losing those games. They have beaten Eastleigh, Barrow and Dover and Saturday's trip is hardly any harder than those. Havant did stop us from landing the double on Tuesday night, but they are still struggling to win games. Their home form isn't terrible, but Solihull are in really good form at the moment and I think they should be favourites for this game so am happy to take Betway's 15/8. I suspect Solihull will continue to be under estimated by the bookies and unless their form takes a turn for the worse then they are likely to remain a decent value bet. Leyton Orient v Sutton (National League) I Tweeted on Tuesday that I think the league will be between Salford and Leyton Orient now. Both sides look a cut above the rest of the league at the moment and crucially neither side are really dropping silly points unlike the teams around them. Sutton have had a very strange last 3 results and how on earth they allowed a terrible Dover to come back from 2 down with 10 men I just don't know. Orient are still yet to lose and I would have them around 4/6 for this game so the even money (Marathon and William Hill) is certainly worth taking. I have been really impressed with the way Orient have been putting away sides of late and in 5 of their last 7 games they have scored at least 3 goals. That is really impressive and I think they can add another 3 points on Saturday. Maidstone v Chesterfield (National League) Gary Waddock said that he had never seen such a one sided game that a team has lost after his Aldershot side lost to Maidstone on Tuesday night. It seems new Maidstone manager Harry Wheeler had a game plan of making them really hard to break down and they managed to sneak a goal to win the game 1-0. That is two 1-0 away wins on the bounce for Maidstone and they should make things very hard for a badly out of form Chesterfield back on their own pitch. I was surprised Martin Allen didn't either walk away or get the sack after the 3-1 defeat to Maidenhead on Tuesday. I see no reason to not carry on opposing them especially when they have been put in as favourites again which makes little sense to me, but again it is bookies using the big team mentality instead of what is actually happening on the pitch. Marathon are 9/4 about a home win. Biggleswade v Redditch (Southern Premier Central) The best bet of the weekend for me is the home side. Biggleswade are still unbeaten in the league and although they have drawn 5 of their 7 games they have started the season in really good shape. The only downside so far is the fact they surprisingly lost to Chesham in the FA Cup, but what that did mean was they didn't have a game last weekend so have had a bit of extra rest coming into this fixture. Redditch seem in a right mess off the field. Ex manager Paul Davies came out in the press saying that he had to beg players to play in what turned out to be his final game in charge when they lost 5-1 to Coalville. It seems the players hadn't been paid and the chairman certainly seems to be ruining the club. Former assistant Paul Smith has now been given the job and although he has done well at a lower level, this is the first time has been in charge of a side at this high a level. He lost 2-0 to Stratford in his first game in charge and although he has brought in 5 players since he took charge they still don't look a great squad. The home side are 24/25 wuth Marathon and that price looks very fair. Corinthian Casuals v Enfield Town (Bostik Premier) I have been really pleased with Enfield's start to the season given I put them up at a big price ante-post. They sit in 3rd place at the moment and they should be able to stay up there. In their last league game a couple of weeks ago they came from 2 down to Lewes to draw 2-2. Both goals came from Billy Bricknell who came of the bench as he was coming back from injury. They are unbeaten in the league still and should be able to beat Corinthian Casuals who are finding themselves a bit outclassed. They won their first league of the season last time, but that came against Harlow who are one off the bottom. Their other 2 points have come against teams around them in the table as well and I think they will continue to struggle against the better sides in the league. Marathon go 143/100 about an away win and that looks a good price. Solihull 1pt @ 15/8 with Betway Leyton Orient 2pts @ Evs Marathon/William Hill Maidstone 1pt @ 9/4 with Marathon Biggleswade 3pts @ 24/25 with Marathon Enfield Town 2.5pts @ 143/100 with Marathon