Darran

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Darran last won the day on April 28

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About Darran

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    aka Addpea
  • Birthday 08/26/82

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  1. A bit of a killer to end the season, but Brackley fully deserved the equaliser in all fairness.
  2. We finally get to the final game of the Non-League season and having thought last weeks play-off final was going to be the last bet of the season I actually think there is a decent bet to be had in the Wembley final. Bromley had a really good season in the National League this term and were a shade unfortunate not to reach the play-offs as they missed out on 7th place by just 3 points. They probably just ran out of steam slightly in the final week of the season as they could only draw against Barrow and ended up losing to Maidenhead, although by then I am sure the players pretty much knew they weren't going to make the play-offs and were beginning to think about the FA Trophy Final. They had actually had a pretty good April having only lost one of their 7 matches up until the final day of the season. You could argue that the fact they haven't played a competitive game for 3 weeks is a negative and they might be a bit rusty, but I think the break will be a plus. Like I say they had a busy April and a chance to recharge the batteries ahead of the biggest game in the clubs history should work in their favour. Brackley have also had a cracking season finishing 3rd to the two promoted sides in the National League North as well as of course making this final. They didn't exactly go into the play-offs in the best of form having won 4 and lost 4 in their last 8 games of the season. I can't help, but think they benefited from playing Bradford Park Avenue who were the weakest team going into the play-offs and they edged past them 1-0. The final was just too much for them though as Harrogate comfortably beat them 3-0. Now as mentioned above you could argue that the fact they have played a couple of competitive games in the last 2 weeks might mean they are more on it and maybe losing so heavily might make them want to make sure they don't end the season with nothing. I think it will have a negative effect though as they players are going to take some boosting even to play in a Wembley final after the loss to Harrogate. Also this has only been the focus for them since Monday whereas Bromley have been able to prepare solely on this game. Brackley manager Kevin Wilkin doesn't have a great experience of an FA Trophy Final either having managed Wrexham when they lost on penalties to North Ferriby in 2015. The final thing to note is the fact Bromley are a much better side than Brackley. If Brackley had won promotion they would have struggled next season in the National League and we are talking about a side who could easily have made the play-offs to the Football League. I just don't think the class difference has been factored into the price here and I would make Bromley a shade of odds on to win this. Last weeks final looked a game too far Brackley and this is likely to be two games to far. I actually think it could be a fairly comfortable afternoon for Bromley and I think they are solid bet at 27/20 with Marathon. Bromley 2.5pts @ 27/20 with Marathon
  3. Not a bad preview to end the season with 11/10, 5/4, 13/5 and 8/1 winners. There might be a FA Trophy Final preview next week, but that is obviously the end of the League season and its been another successful year on the match betting front. Thanks to everyone who has read the previews and hopefully I helped you make a few quid over the season.
  4. Good news 365 have goalscorer prices back up.
  5. So 365 have stuck the game back up but last time I checked it was without the goal scorer markets annoyingly.
  6. Tranmere v Boreham Wood It all comes down to this to see who will be joining Macclesfield in the Football League next season. Will it be Tranmere who have only speant 3 seasons out of the Football League or Boreham Wood who have never been anywhere near the Football League and were a massive price for promotion at the start of the season? In my view it is Tranmere's to lose. As I wrote in the play-offs preview in my view Tranmere were the best team in the league this season, but they blew it with their slow start to the season as they nearly did against Ebbsfleet last Saturday. They really should have beaten Ebbsfleet comfortably, but they gifted them two goals, especially the 2nd and it nearly cost them. In the end 4 top class goals saw them reach the final after extra-time and those 4 goals showed how much class they have in their team. They will have to be careful though not to make mistakes here as Boreham Wood do have it in them to punish Tranmere. In Bruno Andrade Wood have one of the best players in the division and he has scored 20 goals this season. He has the ability to cause Tranmere's defence some real problems especially as they aren't the quickest defence in the league. He scored in both games against Tranmere this season and even if Tranmere do win it wouldn't surprise me at all if he ended up on the score sheet again. Worth pointing out as well that Wood took 4 points off Tranmere this season as they drew 2-2 at Prenton Park in August and beat them 2-1 at Meadow Park in March. As much as these games can be tight I wouldn't be at all surprised if we saw goals again here. Tranmere under performed in the final last season when losing to Forest Green and I think they will be desperate to put things right on Saturday afternoon. As Luton proved getting out of this division when you are a big club can be difficult, but overall this looks a golden chance for them to get back into the Football League. So what bets are worth having? I like the look of over 2.5 goals at 11/10 with Marathon. I think this game will be pretty open and there is a good chance of goals especially given there were 4 and 5 in both semi-finals and 3 in Wood's elimination game so I would make over 2,5 goals an odds on shot. I think Tranmere will come out on top and like the look of 2-1 and 3-1 on the correct score front. Given I think Boreham Wood will score the odds are high that goal will come from Andrade and so backing him at 13/5 with Bet365 to score at anytime looks a fair bet with a small interest at 15/2 on him to score first. Norwood can score goals from both inside and outside the box and I find it hard to see him not scoring as well so back him both anytime and to score first. Over 2.5 goals @ 11/10 with Marathon Tranmere 2-1 @ 8/1 with BetVictor Tranmere 3-1 @ 16/1 with Bet365 Andrade to score 1st @ 15/2 with Bet365 and anytime @ 13/5 with Bet365 Norwood to score 1st @ 4/1 with Bet365 and anytime @ 5/4 with Betway NB for some reason 365 have removed their prices although I do suspect they will be back up at some point
  7. Tranmere v Ebbsfleet I fully expect Tranmere to win this match and I have a feeling they will win it comfortably as well. The team has basically had 2 weeks off after they could finish in nothing other than 2nd place and prior to that they were in really good form, especailly at home. There is no doubt they come into this as the fresher team and they are the better team anyway as is backed up by the fact they beat Ebbsfleet 3-0 here in February. Ebbsfleet already came into the play-offs on the back of a really busy April and they were out on their feet during the elimination game against Aldershot on Wednesday night. As much as they had fortune on their side to take it penalties and then win the shoot out I did think a draw after 120 minutes was a fair result. I am sure they will give it a go, but they will surely be feeling the effects of so many games and then the 120 minutes on Wednesday night that Tranmere should be able to punish their tiredness especially the longer the game goes on. I think Coral's 15/8 about Tranmere on the -1 handicap looks more than fair. Tranmere -1 1pt @ 15/8 with Coral
  8. 2 bets 2 winners so the profits continue which is good. Makes up for the fact two of the outright bets are already out although Dulwich and Kings Lynn are both in the final.
  9. Boreham Wood v AFC Fylde You would have got a big price Boreham Wood finishing in the play-off positions at the start of the season, but they have done amazingly well to get this far and I think they will reach the semi-finals on Thursday evening. They have always been solid at home since gaining promotion and that has again been the case this season gaining 41 points at home. As I alluded to in my outright piece Fylde's have been far from trustworthy away from home this season and if only they could have beaten Wrexham on Saturday they would have got themselves a home tie in the elimination round. They only picked up a draw though against a team who didn't really have anything to play for and to also lose to Maidstone, Woking and Guiseley in recent away games just shows how they can throw some really poor efforts in on their travels. The home side are nearly as big as 6/4 now with Marathon and that makes plenty of appeal. Kings Lynn v Weymouth Again as I alluded to in my outright preview Kings Lynn's home form this season has been superb as they only lost once and that came back in December. They have a strong squad with plenty of experience in it and that will be crucial I think here. As well the fact Weymouth have got a really long journey to do on a Wednesday night which is hardly ideal ahead of such a big game and for me Kings Lynn have a big advantage by the fact they get to play this game at home. Marathon are clear biggest again at 123/100 and that looks a fair price. Boreham Wood 1pt @ 37/25 with Marathon Kings Lynn 1pt @ 123/100 with Marathon
  10. I can never resist a go on the play-off winners and this year the 3 National League's have 6 teams playing in them with 2nd and 3rd placed sides only having to win one home match to get to the final. The 3 Step 3 leagues still have the usual one leg semi-finals and then the final. National League I hate it when people say the table never lies as I think it can be utter rubbish. Sometimes it isn't the best side that wins the league it is just the most consistent and that was Macclesfield this season as Tranmere really should have won the league in a canter. They didn't seem to get too many breaks in the opening months of the season, either through their own lack of scoring goals or the ref making stupid errors. I know they have finished 10 points behind Macclesfield in the end, but they weren't trying in their last two games of the season so we can ignore them and that slow start just left themselves with too much to do. They will be playing either Aldershot or Ebbsfleet at home in the semi-final and I don't think they have too much to fear from either side. Ebbsfleet have done really well to get into the play-offs, but it is a season too soon for them and they have had a busy schedule of late so an extra game would be against them if they do get to the semi-final. I have read plenty of times this season that Aldershot are the best footballing side in the division and that doesn't surprise me given the way Gary Waddock likes his teams to play. Their problem is they are in dreadful form coming into the play-offs and I just can't see them being able to beat Tranmere. It seems slightly odd to think that one of Sutton, Boreham Wood are AFC Fylde will be going to Wembley for the play-off final, but that will be happening. Fylde's away form has been pretty ordinary and they have won just 3 of their last 8 away games which were against Gateshead, Barrow and Torquay. They lost 4 of them including against bottom side Guiesley. I just can't see them winning two away games against 4th and then 3rd to get to the final. Boreham Wood have only won once away in their last 6 games on the road and that was against an out of form Wrexham. Sutton's home form has been superb bar a real stinker of a performance against Bromley which was on TV. That is their only loss in 10 at home and I really do think it will be 2nd v 3rd in the final. After that I think Tranmere will have too much for them and they will want to atone for their poor performance at Wembley last season. National League South Dartford are warm favourites here and given they only lost the title thanks to a 89th minute goal from Havant they deserve to go up. The problem is that will be hard to get over and although they have a week to get over it there has to be a feeling at the club that they shouldn't be in the play-offs. On the plus side they have only failed to win 6 of their home games all season which is pretty impressive. The rest all finished quite close to each other points wise and Chelmsford stole 3rd place on the final day. That could be key for me as I would fancy them to win their semi-final against whoever they will get. Crucially they were one of the 3 sides to beat Dartford at their place this season and for me they offer a bit of value to win promotion to the National League. Given how often they have been in contention for promotion this could finally be their year. National League North Harrogate pushed Salford close, but in the end they just didn't quite have enough. Like Dartford they have only failed to win 6 home games and they only lost 2 of those. That is seriously impressive, but I just wonder if the pressure got to them late on and it could happen again here. Interestingly as good as their home form is they only beat Stockport and Chorley of the other 5 play-off sides at home and they drew with the other three. Kidderminster are the team I like here. Strangely enough they have to play the exact same match they did on Saturday in their first game. Bradford Park Avenue won that 2-1 with an injury time winner which meant BPA got into the play-offs. Kiddie probably took their foot off the gas a bit as they couldn't move from 4th place and I fully expect them to put in a totally different performance in their first game. Win that and they will have to win at Harrogate, but if they can force a draw in 90 minutes then anything can happen. Brackley seem to be focused more on the FA Trophy Final given their form of late. Stockport's away form has improved a lot of late and they could be a danger as it wouldn't surprise me if they reached the final. Bostik Premier There really will be no justice if Dulwich don't go up. I have been to plenty of Dulwich play-off games and they always find a way of losing mostly in the final, but this season is the first time they have finished 2nd and they were miles clear of the rest of the division something a comfortable 3-0 win over Folkestone last week demonstrated. A lot has happened off the pitch and it is a shame a semi-final and a possible final won't be at Champion Hill, but it would be great for the club to deliver promotion despite all the issues with the ground. I think they will have too much for their 3 rivals and although they are a short price I think they have every right to be and they should follow Billericay into the National League South. Evo-Stik Southern Premier The 4 teams in the play-offs reached between 100 and 97 points and all managed at least 99 goals which is staggering. There was a massive gap of 19 points back to 6th place as well. I was surprised Slough were favourites though as they have had a really busy schedule of 9 games in April. I just can't help feel that will catch up with them in the play-offs. Kings Lynn will have two home games and they have lost just twice at home all season. I think they will see off Weymouth in the semi-finals and I think they will have too much for either Slough and Kettering as well. Evo-Stik Northern Premier If you thought the other Evo-Stik league was tight then was was amazingly even tighter with just 2 points separating the 4 teams. They have all played either 8 or 9 games in April so it could be which side copes with the hectic schedule the best. I'm going to chance Farsley here as they are hitting form at the right time. They have only lost one of their last 9 games and although it was against Warrington I still think they come into this in very good shape. They have been scoring plenty of goals as well having scored 22 in their last 8 matches and will clearly be a threat up front. At the moment only Betway have them all priced up so you will have to have an account with them. Usually I would play singles, but with my strongest two picks Dulwich and Tranmere both pretty short I am just going to stick the 6 teams in a heinz and see where that gets us. At current odds a 10p Heinz would win you £877.55 and would cost £5.70 and given it has been another profitable season I think it is worth throwing a few quid to see if we can end on a high. Any match bets I think are worth having will go up as we get to them.
  11. Shame I didn’t let the Hartlepool bet ride but a bit surprised they managed to beat a pretty much full strength Tranmere. Ashton winner came late thankfully and Halesowen won 2-0 to cover than handicap bet as well. Annoying that Ebbsfleet gave away a penalty just after going a goal up but still a profitable end to season.
  12. Tranmere side is strong so I have cashed out for a small loss on the Hartlepool bet.
  13. Just a note on the tranmere v Hartlepool game. I’m hearing differing things about how strong the line up is going to be. If it is a strong home side it might well be worth getting out of the Hartlepool bet. A case of waiting and see
  14. So it has been a very profitable week so far and fingers crossed tomorrow is as well as we look to end the season on a high. These four are added to the 3 above. Torquay v Ebbsfleet Since I first put this up without the reasoning the price has gone, but even a shade of odds against is still a hell of a bet. Ebbsfleet need to win to make sure they finish in the top 7, whereas Torquay are down and even managed to lose to a ten man Guiseley on Tuesday night. The key thing for me though is that the Torquay players won't even be playing for contracts because their retained list has already been decided and all the meetings with the players are taking place after the game. That means all the decisions have been made and so there is no motivation at all for the players to try very hard. Ebbsfleet in fantastic form as well and they are a very confident selection. Spennymoor v Southport Spennymoor have given me an amazing run for my money after putting them up at 100/1, but it looks like their heavy backlog of fixtures has caught up with them and they haven't won in 7 games now. They could only draw against bottom side North Ferriby on Thursday night and the players by all accounts looked out on their feet. Regular readers will remember Southport made us plenty of money a few weeks ago when they were in cracking form, things then took a serious turn for the worse and they lost 7 games on the bounce! They did though win on Tuesday against Darlington and that gives me more confidence in putting them up for this game. At the very least 6/1 is way over priced. Harrogate v Curzon Harrogate couldn't quite catch Salford for the title and their attention will now turn to the play-offs. They can only finish 2nd now and it wouldn't surprise me if they rested a few players ahead of the semi-final. They have lost their last two games as well conceding 3 each time. This is a bit more of a speculative play, but Curzon aren't in bad nick at the moment and at 11/2 they look over priced. Whitehawk v Wealdstone I have to put up Whitehawk again especially as Wealdstone have been playing catch up with their fixtures after their FA Trophy run. They have played 8 games already this month and I am sure Whitehawk will want to try and leave the division with a victory. They should be favourites for this so happy at play at 2/1. Ebbsfleet 4pts @ Evs with William Hill Southport 1pt @ 6/1 with Betfred Curzon 1pt @ 11/2 with Bet365/Betfred Whitehawk 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365
  15. Chees Lee just edited it. Getting mixed up with the other bet in the league on Saturday!