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Darran last won the day on August 28

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About Darran

  • Birthday 08/26/1982

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  1. Wealdstone v Aldershot Going to back Wealdstone again here. They did superbly against Notts County on Tuesday night and even had an xG of 2.3 compared to County's 1.66 which shows how well they did despite losing. Their xG was even higher against Altincham on Saturday when it was a late penalty which saw them gain the victory. They need to be more clinical in front of goal, but as I keep mentioning they are nowhere near as bad a side as they were last season and they ought to have more points on the board. The away side lost their first 5 games of the season although managed to see off a poor Southend 3-2 on Saturday despite gifting their opponents one of their goals. They aren't creating enough good chances as an xG of 0.84 suggests and I'm surprised they are favourites to win this to be honest as I would marginally have the home side in front of them at the moment. Wrexham v Dagenham & Redbridge Wrexham were awful at Grimsby on Tuesday night and fully deserved their defeat and they were probably slightly fortunate to get away with the 3 points last Saturday against Woking. Dagenham were poor in the first half against Kings Lynn last week, but they were much better in the 2nd half as they showed their class. They did well against a tricky Weymouth side in midweek as well and they clearly have plenty of goals in them. Certainly so far I am very happy from an ante-post perspective and if Wrexham continue to underperform then Dagenham are more than good enough to take full advantage. They just shouldn't be the price they are. Hungerford v Truro One bet appeals in the FA Cup. Truro have been awful at home in the league so far this season, but away from home they have been much better. In my ante-post preview I wondered if not having a home ground of their own was going to hinder them and it has certainly been the case so far. They have a good side on paper though and I certainly think they are better than their league position suggests. Hungerford have only had 4 leagues games due to Covid and they were well beaten by Dulwich last week in their first game back after their enforced break. I think there is a bit of value in the 3/1 about Truro causing a minor upset. Wealdstone 1pt @ 19/10 with Bet365 Dagenham & Redbridge 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365 Truro 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365 and Betfred
  2. Kings Lynn v Dagenham & Redbridge (National League) Dagenham have been very impressive so far this season and they will be disappointed that they only got a point at Wealdstone last week when they defended poorly a couple of times. They have been very strong up front though having scored at least 2 goals in every game so far and their xG is just over 2 as well whilst their opponents is just under 1. They are likely to get some good chances against their hosts who apart from keeping a poor Yeovil quiet have been conceding plenty of good chances to their opponents. This game is on BT Sport tomorrow afternoon and hopefully we will see one of my ante-post bets for the title win fairly comfortably. Torquay v Grimsby (National League) Torquay finally won their first game of the season last week at Maidenhead, but after being 4 up at half time they lost the 2nd half 3-0 and the story of their season so far is that they are giving their opponents some good goal scoring opportunities. Currently their opponents xG is 1.96 compared to their own 1.27 and even in the game last week Maidenhead's xG was higher. That win might see them kick on, but I do think the hangover from losing the play-off final is still there and I am opposing them on Saturday. Grimsby also won a game which ended 4-3 as they beat Barnet with a superb free kick in injury time. I know Barnet going down to 10 men helped, but they were creating lots of chances and I think they deserved the win in the end. Barnet just happened to be very clinical and they were the first team to actually have a shot on target against Grimsby this season. I think they look stronger than Torquay this season so will take them to win this. Wealdstone v Altrincham (National League I am going to try Wealdstone again here as I did in their previous home game. That afternoon they drew 0-0 with Southend and although they were probably fortunate to get a point against Dagenham last week it showed again that they have been putting in some very good performances and one of them deserves to be turned into 3 points soon. Altrincham may have been fortunate to have played Torquay on the opening day and then Dover last week to get their two wins on the board. When they faced Halifax in between they weren't great and lost 2-0. With home advantage I would make the home side favourites myself. Blyth Spartans v Darlington (National League North) A local derby here and I like the home side. They looked on paper a much stronger squad then they had been the last couple of years and that has shown on the pitch as well as they have only lost one of their opening 5 games. That defeat was against a bang in form Kidderminster so there was no disgrace in that and they got a very good point against Brackley last week. Darlington on the other hand have had a horrid start to the season losing all 3 games to Alfreton, Curzon and Bradford. Given how both sides have been playing so far I make the home side odds on shots to win this. Gloucester v Curzon (National League North) Last season my own side won me plenty of money as it took the bookies a while to cotton on to how good we were, this season hopefully I can continue to make money from their games just that this time around I am taking them on. Obviously as much as I thought we would lose last week I wasn't expecting a 9-0 defeat, but it wasn't a great surprise that after being 2 down and a man down after 20 minutes that the players basically gave up. They hadn't tried much against Kettering either and I just don't see what will change ahead of this game. The Curzon manager summed things up nicely for me when he said that credit to Gloucester because they had tried to pass the ball around, but it was a bit naive because it meant Chorley could pick them off at will. Yes Chorley scored some good goals which on another day might not have gone in, but the defending was shocking and some of the chances were gifts. Paul Groves doesn't seem to have a plan b and we have made it pretty clear to every one else in the league what they have to do to beat us. There doesn't seem to be any new players arriving ahead of this game so as much as sometimes teams can bounce back from a heavy defeat because they are hurting, I am not sure what exactly will have changed. Curzon have started the season in fantastic form having lost just once to Boston and looked very good last week in a 3-0 win over Leamington. I'd love to be wrong, but I find it hard to see anything other than an away win and they should be favourites. Chippenham v Chelmsford (National League South) There is some irony in the fact that Chippenham who basically have a team of ex Gloucester players and a former Gloucester manager have actually started the season well. They are unbeaten in 4 games and currently 5th in the table. Mike Cook has made them tough to beat, but they have had a bit of luck in one or two of their games and I think Chelmsford are a spot of value to beat them. Vincent Harper has been one of their best players this season and he left earlier in the week and that will weaken them in my opinion. Chelmsford lost their opening 2 games, but they have improved after that and after beating Bath they have got two very good draws against Ebbsfleet and Dorking. I would have these two sides much closer in the betting than they are. Dagenham & Redbridge 2.5pts @ 10/11 with Betfred, William Hill & Bet365 (Evs is available with Betway and take up to 8/13) Grimsby 1pt @ 13/8 with Bet365 (take up to 11/8) Wealdstone 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365 (take up to 6/4) Blyth Spartans 2.5pts @ 13/10 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair and William Hill (take up to 4/5) Curzon Ashton 3pts @ 15/8 with BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 5/4) Chelmsford 1pt @ 12/5 with Betfred (take up to 7/4)
  3. On paper they all should win possibly Chesterfield are a tad short in the betting and Wealdstone aren’t quite as bad as their results suggest but Dagenham have been very good so far
  4. Boreham Wood v Stockport I must admit I'm a bit surprised by how slow Stockport have started the season. They were poor against Dagenham on the opening day and then scraped past Southend before drawing against Grimsby. I think plenty of teams will find it tough going to Boreham Wood this season and with Stockport struggling for goals I think there is a spot of value in backing the home side. They have won 3/3 so far and although they haven't faced anyone that good at the moment I think they have a better chance of beating the away side than the odds suggest. Southend v Wrexham I thought Wrexham played very well on Monday night when getting a 1-1 draw against Notts County and they strike me as a team who will only get better. I also think they could well do better against the ex league sides in the division as their newcomers to the squad and the manager will be used to going to places like Southend. I opposed the home side on Monday and it nearly paid off as they only drew 0-0 at Wealdstone and so far they look no better than a mid-table side. I think odds against about Wrexham looks a decent price. Chorley v Gloucester As I alluded to in the intro I watched Gloucester against Kettering on Monday and we were awful. We barely created a chance and fully deserved the 2-0 defeat. I had hoped that after the York 4-0 win that our home form would be strong, but that didn't happen. So far in our two away games we have also been pretty poor and barely created a chance against Guiesley last Saturday after going a goal up early on. We still have 5 first team players out and haven't been able to add to the squad this week. Chorley look like they are beginning to improve after a slow start, something they also did last season. I obviously hope I'm wrong, but we look miles away from the side we were last season and I'm not sure we have the manager in charge to sort it out. Chorley should be odds on for me. Chester v Alfreton Another side who have had a poor start to the season are Chester and they don't seem to have got over Covid which spread through the squad just before the season started. They have played poorly so far and although Alfreton aren't anything special themselves they have been performing well enough and could just heap more misery on the home side. Eastbourne v Dulwich Hamlet I'm kicking myself for not backing Dulwich on Monday as they played Hemel who we had benefitted from opposing in the previous couple of games. It was 0-0 at half time, but then Dulwich ran riot in the 2nd half putting 6 goals past their hosts. Given the way the manager likes to play football I have always thought they will do well on 3G pitches and they go to another one tomorrow. Eastbourne have improved a bit since their heavy opening day defeat against Hampton, but Dulwich could be about to properly get going and they have a good squad this season so I am taking them to get the points. Boreham Wood 1pt @ 15/8 with Betfred and Betfair (take up to 6/4) Wrexham 2pts @ 11/8 with Bet365 (take up to 10/11) Chorley 2pts @ 11/10 with William Hill (take up to (4/5) Alfreton 1pt @ 23/10 with Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 15/8) Dulwich 1pt @ 6/4 with William Hill (take up to 11/10)
  5. I'm surprised they have drifted out to odds against, but it is hard to want to back them after they lost to Welling.
  6. A full fixture list on BH Monday and I have 6 bets to add to the Concord one earlier. Aldershot v Yeovil (National League) Yeovil got their season underway on Saturday with a defeat to Kings Lynn and they went down to 10 men late on in the first half. Manager Darren Sarll mentioned after the game that they struggled with their energy levels which is no surprise after the team suffered with Covid. To have another game 48 hours later is going to be really tough. Aldershot have lost both games so far but Chesterfield at home was always going to be tough and the same going to Boreham Wood on Saturday. They battled hard though and might have picked up a point on another day. I don't think there is a great deal between these two sides so for the home side to be as big as they are means it is worth backing them especially with the quick turnaround for Yeovil. Halifax v Altrincham (National League) Bit disappointing for us that Halifax were able to beat Woking on Saturday, but Woking didn't defend well enough. Still we are in profit from opposing them with Maidenhead beating them on the opening day and I am taking them on again here. Altrincham had a very good win on day 1 winning away at Torquay and they had Saturday off so well be fresher for this match. Even without that they would have looked a bet for me so it is just an added bonus for me. Wealdstone v Southend (National League) Wealdstone have lost both their games so far, but performances haven't actually been that bad at all and I reckon they are in with a chance of beating Southend here. They just about beat Kings Lynn on the opening day and then lacked quality in the final 3rd against Stockport on Saturday. I certainly think the home team have it in them to cause Southend problems and look a value bet at the prices. Weymouth v Maidenhead (National League) It was a tough old trip to Grimsby for Weymouth on Saturday and they couldn't even muster a shot on target in a 1-0 defeat. That followed on from losing to Boreham Wood at home on the opening day. In contrast Maidenhead have won both games so far and although I don't expect Halifax or Dover to do much this season, I would have Weymouth on a similar footing so I am happy to take them to make it 3/3. Chippenham v Havant & Waterlooville (National League South) To be fair to the home side here they have done well to get 4 points from their first two games given they were suffering on numbers due to Covid. Despite that this game should be much tougher than playing Dulwich or Slough. Havant had an easy opening game against Welling (3-0 win), but did well to beat Hampton last Saturday 2-1. This Saturday was a day off for them so the fact they come into this game fresher is again another huge plus for them. Again like Altrincham I would have made them a bet at the odds anyway, but the fact they had a day off adds to the confidence. Atherton v Lancaster (Northern Premier League) Just the one bet at step 3 and it is Lancaster who have got off to a flying start to the season winning 4 on the bounce after losing on the opening day. To be fair the fixtures haven't been overly taxing, but they have won them with ease and Atherton again shouldn't cause them too many issues. They lost 2-0 to Morpeth on Saturday and they had lost all their games prior to that fixture. Aldershot 1pt @ 17/10 with Bet365 (take up to 5/4) Altrincham 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365 (take up to 7/4) Wealdstone 1pt @ 100/30 with Bet365 (take up to 9/4) Maidenhead 1pt @ 13/8 with BetVictor, Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 11/10) Havant 2.5pts @ 13/10 with Skybet, Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 4/5) Lancaster 2pts @ 7/5 with Bet365, Betfair, Betfred and Hills (take up to Evs and only 4 bookies I've checked as match isn't on Oddschecker)
  7. Going to add a couple of ante-post bets to the portfolio as well. First of all in the Southern Premier League Central I am going to add Peterborough Sports at 3/1 with Bet365. I do expect improvement at Stourbridge at some point but they have been pretty rubbish so far this season and I must admit I was tempted to take them on against Bromsgrove on Monday. They lost 8-4 to Sports on Saturday and they have looked very good so far so I think it is worth making sure we have some coverage on them. I am also going to add another 0.5pts e/w on Farnborough at 12/1 in the Southern Premier South. I know it is early doors but the 40/1 on them for the title is looking very big at the moment and I think the 12/1 available now still offers some value so it is worth a top up to make 1pt e/w on them in total. Peterborough Sports 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365 Farnborough 0.5pts e/w @ 12/1 with Bet365
  8. I think we all need to thank Dee Star who doesn't exactly know how to win a race.
  9. I have 5 single bets for tomorrow and a banker home treble in the National League South. Dagenham & Redbridge v Bromley (National League) What a start from Dagenham last week as they really impressively beat Stockport 3-1 last Saturday coming from a goal down. Obviously with them being one of the ante-post tips it was pleasing to see them do so well. They face a Bromley side who didn't get to play last week after Grimsby got Covid. As I mentioned with one of my tips last week I really do think that a team having already played a competitive game is a big advantage and that tips Dagenham into value territory for me. Bromley look to have a decent side again although I do think Dagenham will obviously finish above them come May. Hopefully we also see some home wins this week after last week in the National League every game was an away win apart from one which was a draw! Woking v Halifax (National League) Happy to back Woking again this week to make it 2/2. To be fair to Wealdstone they played pretty well and could have got a point, but it was a good start for Woking and proves they will be a much different proposition this season. Happy to oppose Halifax again as well as they looked lacking in defence against Maidenhead who came from a goal down to win 2-1. I think the home side should be shorter. Concord v Hampton & Richmond (National League South) Concord caused a huge shock on the opening day of the season when they beat Dorking 1-0 and they did well last week as well to get a 3-3 draw against Oxford City. Despite that though I still think Hampton are a good bet here. I put them up on the opening day when they bolted up against Eastbourne and then last week they just went down 2-1 to Havant. Interestingly last season they were very strong away from home and struggled for wins at home and given how good they were away on the opening day you just wonder if it could happen again this season. I think they have the much better side as well so I would have them shorter in the betting myself. Ebbsfleet v Hemel Hempstead (National League South) Hemel have let in 7 goals in their opening 2 games and as I mentioned last week they are suffering big time from injuries at the moment. Ebbsfleet didn't play last week, but on the opening day they beat Tonbridge 5-1 in a very impressive performance. I think they will fancy their chances of scoring more goals here and it isn't a big surprise the early 4/5 was taking and they are much shorter now. I still think they look attractively priced on the handicap though so will take them on the -1. Treble (all National League South) Ebbsfleet are obviously going to be the first leg of the treble. Their Kent rivals Maidstone are leg 2. They host Billericay who look set for a tough season based on their first two games and they lost 7-2 to Eastbourne last week. Maidstone have won both games and they really ought to make it 3/3. Another Kent side Welling have got off to a miserable start as well and like Billericay could be set for a relegation battle based on their opening two games. St Albans have lost both their games but then they have played Dartford and Dorking! This is clearly much easier and they should get their first points on the board. Bromsgrove v AFC Rushden & Diamonds (Southern Premier Central) I know Bromsgrove won last Saturday, but I am happy to take them on again as the bookies still seem to think they will do well based on the fact they are still pretty short for the title. Rushden are a solid side and I would make them favs for this game. Dagenham & Redbridge 1pt @ 5/4 with Bet365, BetVictor, Betfred, Skybet and Hills (take up to Evs) Woking 2pts @ 7/5 with Bet365 and Hills (take up to Evs) Hampton & Richmond 2pts @ 29/20 with BetVictor (take up to Evs) Ebbsfleet -1 2pts @ 6/4 with Betfair, Paddys and Betfred (take up to 11/10) Ebbsfleet/Maidstone/St Albans 2pts treble @ 2.24/1 with Betfair and Paddys (you can get 2.4/1 with Betway if you can get on and take up to 7/4) AFC Rushden & Diamonds 1pt @ 7/4 with Betfred and Bet365
  10. More Buck's and Go On Chez both run at Cartmel tomorrow in the 4.35 and 5.15. Clearly More Buck's isn't going to be the sort of price he was last time, but this does look the perfect chance for him to get his head in front. He was superb at Market Rasen when enjoying himself out in front compared to Stratford when he couldn't make the running. The only concern I have about the race is if Full Spes decides to go off at a fast pace as he has done the last twice. Hopefully connections will change his running style though because he has been beaten easily both times and he steps up in trip so if he goes off that quick he has no chance. Ardera Cross can front run, but he's also stepping up in trip so I can't see him wanting to go off that fast. As long as Full Spes doesn't go blasting off in front though I don't think they will see which way More Buck's goes. More Buck's @ 6/4 with Bet365 and William Hill Go On Chez only has Breaking The Ice to beat in my view. Go On Chez has been put up 11lbs after his Uttoxeter win, but I think that is deserved as he did it really well and the front two were well clear of the rest. He has had a win op since then as well. Breaking The Ice is a course and distance winner and he's on a hat-trick after winning at Perth after that. I wouldn't put you off having a small saver on him, but I certainly think there is more to come from Go On Chez. Go On Chez @ 4/1 with Bet365
  11. We reach the end of the Victorian jumping season tomorrow at Ballarat with an all jumps card which ends with the Grand National Steeplechase. Race 1 (4am) I think this is likely to go to one of the hurdling newcomers as although some of those with hurdling experience have placed form most of them are fairly exposed now and we have some useful flat horses making their hurdles debut here. The one excpetion would be So Able who I thought ran well enough last time in a decent enough race and I wouldn't rule him out here. I don't really understand why Tolemac is much bigger than Upswing in the betting given Tolemac looked a lot better when they trialled last time in the same race. Tolemac jumped well and won and Upswing looked very novicey and was only 4th. Both have been running well at a fair level on the fat although Tolemac has been in the higher quality races. Raise You Ten is the favourite and he impressed in his trial when beating Norway albeit both weren't over extended. He's been running well on the flat and was 2nd at Sandown when Upswing was 3rd last month. I couldn't put anyone off backing him, but Tolemac looks the value to me. Tolemac 1pt @ 6/1 with Betfred Race 2 (4.40am) You wouldn't think at the end of the season you would get two decent looking maidens but the two here look some of the better ones we have seen this season. Heberite and Sir Aglovale are respected on debut given their connections. Zedstar deserves to win, but he put in his worst performance of the season last time finishing a 20L 3rd after finishing 2nd on his first 4 hurdles starts. He was 9L behind Onset and that one bounced back after not running so well the previous week. He has e/w claims. The selection though is Mount Stewart who won a Newcastle bumper last November. That form has worked out pretty well as well with the 2nd winning 4 times over hurdles and is now rated 139 after finishing 3rd in the Scottish Champion Hurdle last time. He's done well in Australia winning two hurdle trials before beating Cracksman (the Australian version) in a BM78 earlier in the month. Although jumps horses have gone from here to Oz I have yet to come across one who is so unexposed and he could be an exciting horse under both codes. Mount Stewart 2pts @ 11/10 with Bet365 Race 3 (5.20am) I like Roland Garros here. He disappointed at Sale on hurdles debut, but was a different horse last time as he bolted up beating Onset by 11L. Front running tactics worked a treat and no doubt he will be going on with it again here. His winning time was 9 seconds quicker than Cernan's who won the same card albeit his final 600m was just over 4 seconds quicker. For me though plenty of that was Roland Garros not being extended to win his race and Cernan had to finish fast to win. Light Pillar was a big disappointment last time after bolting up at Pakenham in a maiden and if he bounces back he could be the main danger. Roland Garros 2pts @ 11/8 with Betfred Race 4 (6am) The big hurdles race on the card and my feeling is if Saunter Boy or Norway don't win then it is wide open, but I do think Norway can bounce back after disappointing in the Grand National Hurdle last time. I just don't think he stayed that day and dropping back to 3250m looks ideal for him. He was very impressive on his first two hurdles starts and that trial I mentioned above with Raise You Ten suggests he is still in good form. Saunter Boy failed to finish in the Grand National Hurdle, but it was clearly a forgive effort as he's better than that so he should run better. He was 2nd in this last year, but Pateman has chosen Norway and so am I. Tamarack has done it well to be 2/2 over hurdles and he would be the most likely winner if the stablemates do disappoint again. Norway 2pts @ 5/2 with Bet365 Race 5 (6.45am) I thought The Dominator would get away with the 3600m in a Heavy 10 on his last jumps start, but he didn't quite see it out as well as Historic that day. Here he drops back down in trip 200m and the ground will be better so although he has a big weight to carry I am going to side with him to win this. He was poor in this contest last year, but he's a better horse this time around having won the Thackeray and then finishing 2nd to Social Element at Pakenham. He's run well on the flat last week to keep him ticking over and he could be hard to catch out in front. Mawanny Machine has done well over hurdles this season and makes his chasing debut here. He put in a couple of poor jumps in his trial and although he could be good enough to win he looks much shorter in the betting than he should be. Zedman is the only other danger for me. He was 4th behind The Dominator two starts back, but he very nearly won on the 7 day back up in a decent race and if he is in that sort of form he could also be a possible winner. The Dominator 1pt @ 3/1 with Betfred Zedman 0.5pts @ 4/1 with Betfred Race 6 (7.25am) Social Element had been so impressive since going over fences winning 4/4 and he looked so good when landing the Crisp Chase at Sandown last time. This extra trip should hold no fears for him and he has looked the best horse over fences in Australia this year. I don't really see anything good enough to stop him making it 5/5. Flying Agent was 3rd in the Crisp and that was a better run, but its hard to see him reversing the form. Riding High was just behind in 4th that day and did win last time although again I can't see him reversing the form. Inayforhay makes his chasing debut after finishing 2nd in his 2 hurdle starts this season including the Grand National Hurdle at Sandown behind the best hurdler in Australia Wil John. If he takes to it he could be the main danger. San Remo looks like he needs this trip as does Mapping so either one of them could finish in the 3rd or 4th spots, but they are both running from a long way out of the handicap. Social Element 4pts @ 11/10 with Betfred
  12. You get the online version of the newspaper which I like to read as well. You get the access to the race replays which is handy. They do have a full list on their site of what is included.
  13. That's what I was talking about earlier in the thread though. The Spotlight writers get a few hours although 48 hour decs has probably allowed them more time in that regard. When I have the hunter chase meetings to go through it usually takes me 6-8 hours to do it all, but I do have the advantage that I will know a fair few of the horses which makes it quicker, but I also don't have a deadline to work to.
  14. Very odd not sure why they would do that. Usually more likely to go to 1/5 than a 1/3.
  15. I don’t think the pa so provide tips anymore as think Timeform took all their contracts but whoever did them isn’t going to get very long to look at a race on a busy days racing. I think the Timeform rating only tells you so much though and the comments on the Timeform race card which you pay for are there to help with regards to recent performances and you can see how they’ve been performing based on their ratings given in each race.
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