richard-westwood

Cant back a horse that has finished pulled up and fell last 2 runs so copper head is out .....mister malarkey doesn't look good enough now and the conditional although fairly decent has been raised to 147 which looks harsh on balance so he might struggle now . Likewise vindication who is classy but off 161 isnt screaming well hccapped and looks exposed now so omitted That leaves 4 Secret investor 402 Kildisart 397 Sam brown 406 Two for gold 403 Ratings dont help at this stage as very close so I'll have to ponder it further but shortlist of 4 is good ..

Should be a bit of fun .....where do you start with a race like this ??...so competitive... so to find the value you have to be harsh ......first stage is to narrow the race to a manageable number ......19runners is too much .....this tends to go to a classier horse and that is backed up by the fact that the average winning weight overall is 10-12 plus so straight off I'm chopping horses 14 to19 Next I dont want anything older than maximum 9 yo .....so horses 1 4 and 8 are out .... Finally you have to have a certain amount of race experience to go with your class so it's a minimum o

545 chelm Flying dragon 256 Samphire coast 254 Asdaa 251 Asdaa is probably better over 7f .....the fav could be anything but will need everything to fall right ...top 2 here have good form over a mile and conditions suit Flying dragon 5pts win 5/1 bet365 Samphire coast 5pts win 12/1 888

Perfect candidate wins ...around 122pts returned

Third wind 2nd ....main fact won ....ew money

205 ascot Red risk 288 King of realms 285 Espoire de guye 282 Top 2 here look well treated still and should run well hopefully Red risk 7pts win 100/30 willh King of realms 3pts win 9/1 bet365

You can get 8/1 for less places but I think hes found his level around 7 or 8/1 ...shoukd be joint fav I reckon given his level of form .....I had a price cut off of 7 with 4 places ...so I had to back now .... so 6 places is fab odds imo and I'm happy with that

Rated Midnight tune 288 Perfect candidate 286 Sheneededtherun 282 Midnight looked a talented horse last season but has a tendency to pull up so everything will depend on how he feels on the day ....perfect candidate has some strong form to date and shoukd run well with conditions to suit Midnight run 10pts ew 6/1 4places willh Perfect candidate 10pt ew 9/1 bet365

10pts ew third wind 15/2 6places sky 10pts ew dolphin square 16/1 6places sky

Yes ....third wind loves the soft so he will have a higher rating

That's very strong form third wind ....should be spot on now so will disappointing if he doesnt place at least

I've rated the current top 17 runners (max,) Third wind 335 Dolphin square 334 Imperial alcazar 327 Main fact 326 Top 2 here are a few points ahead and big prices ...currently 10 and 20 ....so easy value ew bets for me ....but I'll wait til friday to back

The photo finish was a bit difficult....yes it looked like the closest had got it but it was blurry and if you looked close it looked like the near side horse had got an extraordinary long face ....could be he has lol ...or camera angle etc ....but I think it was fair they called a dead heat because I wasnt sure myself looking at it See what I mean about the long face ??...or is it just me 🤣

Nonerunner and 3rd ....ew money

The paddy power has always been a strong trends race ..... My trends ... 19/20 aged 6 to 9 coole passed 18/20 won at chelt previously coole won over hurdles Pref below 11st 2lb coole was 10st 2lb Only reason I didn't back was I just didn't think he was good enough based on recent form ..he had to improve ....obviously the 10st 2lb helped him a lot on the ground receiving so much weight from the others....it happens....but he was definately on the shortlist after the trends chaff cutting ......I was gonna back him purely because he had passed trends a