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Everything posted by richard-westwood

  1. I think the point is ....dont be afraid to try diff things .....like the lto position ...I'd dropped it but my feelings were telling me it needed to be in ...in some form ......it makes sense when you break it down.....is the horse currently in form ??..how do you quantify that ....last time out position ...its really that easy lol
  2. I'd say if you feel comfortable as you are then dont change it ......my form rating compensates for the loss so as a whole it still works.....it all depends on your rating and how it works as a whole.......with mine the form rating and the weight rating were fighting each other giving far too much emphasis to the hcap mark .....well that's as much as I can get my head round it lol
  3. Also .....I reinstated the last time out position rating ......I dropped it but I was doing a secret survey over the past month and it really does appear that 80% if winners were in top 6 lto ......so it's back in now 🤣
  4. Well one of my best friends is an amazing race analyst....hes had so many wins I've lost count .....I asked him to look at my percentages and suggest any improvements....my original one was based highly on hcap mark so the more pounds over last win the less points ....etc....he told me to drop it completely .....I'm like wtf ???...he said if a horse is well in across the board then weight wont make much diff...that goes against everything I've been taught but I thought what the hell and since I dropped it the results have gone crazy ......I dont understand it but it works .....it really appear
  5. Results update .....since change 17 races 10pts win on both top 2 rated is currently showing a profit of +280.00pts 🙂
  6. Carnage at the bookies all round today....long may it continue !!
  7. Nugget wins !!!! ...forecast again with danyah ....taking g the pee now ...hmmpth
  8. Chindit wins ...nando placed ...collect off both again .....🙂
  9. Forecast again 🤣🤣ffs ....alcohol pips statement on line ....collect off both
  10. Yeah ....was nice prices to win last night ...2 or 3 pts shorter with bookies ew so I thought ..what the hell I'll chance it today at those prices 🙂 Edit ....flipping heck ...nugget is 9/2 !!😮
  11. 320 newb spring hcap Raaeq 9.0. Nugget 8.8 Oh this is us 8.3 Danyah 8.2 New bolt 7.8 Troll peninsula 7.8 Impossibly difficult hcap ....troll peninsula is well fancied and could be ahead of mark back on turf ...nugget has ryan moore on board .....raaeq is quirky but was looking a potentially classy miler in the making ...danyah ran well in the lincoln ...a similar performance could see him go close here .....some good prices on betfair so I'll try wins Raaeq 10pt win 15.5 Nugget 10pt win 10.0 Danyah 10pt win 6.2
  12. 245 newb Chindit 9.7 Nando parado 9.2 Rhythm master 8.5 Classy race and again questions to answer ....its probably best to forgive chindits last race ...course and ground were against so hopefully that was just a blip but has a lot to prove ....of the rest nando parado looks an interesting improver ....could do much better at this trip .....interesting race Chindit 10pt win 2/1 Nando parado 5pt ew 15/2
  13. 210 newb fred darling Alcohol free 9.8 100/30 Umm kulthum 9.0 8/1 Happy romance 8.0 7/1 Statement 8.0 25/1 Open race and questions to answer over distance for a lot of these but top 2 look fairly strong.....happy romance I think will struggle to stay which leaves statement who I can ignore at 25/1 ....that's way overpriced ...value bet of race ....I'll try 10pts win top 2 and 5pts ew statement
  14. Only just saw this sorry ......I dont know tbh ....in the big races especially the formula compensates for the amount of horses in the race so you tend to get big priced quotes ....that's fair in my eyes as if it's a 20 runner race 11/1 is probably a correct reflection of a value bet .....but you are correct bookies sometimes are scared of a certain runner and price it ridiculously short ....that happens a lot tbh ....not really a lot you can do about that .....if you try and force the price it throws everything out....I just love looking for the biggies ....they are rare but it's like finding
  15. Was so focussed on scottish national that hadn't realised how good the racing at Newbury is tomorrow ....doomed ....3 big races ...better get rating 🤣🤣
  16. Raise you wins ....well pleased with that result ..2/2 on day I really wasnt expecting that tbh...looked hard day to me
  17. Nice rating 🙂....did you get the double
  18. Yeah ...but it doesnt win when I back it haha 🤣🤣
  19. Forgot all about this race ...1st and 2nd .....collect off both
  20. It's a hard day tbh ....ive rated about 5 races but a lot of them are really close ...like the top 5 or 6 all bunched together ...the 2 races I posted are probably the best of the bunch and they are still difficult ....good luck to anyone playing today 👍
  21. Yeah I know what you mean they have a high weight .....I like your mighty thunder but trends say dont back any horse that was higher than 16/1 lto ....I dont know why that works must be a class thing ...but it has in the past time and time again ...so I scrubbed it .....I'm hoping the low weighted 40/1 is gonna win personally 🤣
  22. Scottish national Aye right 9.7 Sam's adventure 9.0 Dingo dollar 8.6 Mighty thunder 8.5 Cool mix 8.2 Chef Doevre 8.1 I dont like Sam's adventure (breeding) ....mighty thunder ( price lto)..or cool mix (days ).......that leaves Aye right 9.7 11/2 Dingo dollar 8.6 10/1 Chef Doevre 8.1 40/1 Aye right looks,a strong bet for this ....chef doevre is vastly overpriced at 40/1 !!... I'll try 10pt wins aye and dingo ...5pt ew chef 40/1 6 places
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