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Everything posted by richard-westwood

  1. 650 kemp I have 2 horses showing as value......espresso freddy ...10/1 I can get 18/1 ....ew bet365 .......also family fortunes tissue 7/1 I can get 11.5 betfair ....10 pt win latter ...5pt ew espresso
  2. Yes it's difficult to understand that sometimes .....your looking for those big priced placed horses that are gonna win ..."sometimes" .....and when they do your profits shoot up ....gotta say ....the performance to date has been way better than I ever imagined .....well worth the effort
  3. Loving the value bets ....well done everyone
  4. That's impressive .....420 days off ....just gets beat 2nd.....then count otto wins ....good day for the value bets....I think about 158 points returned at advised stakes
  5. Resdev ran a cracking race for a 40/1 shot
  6. Actually finding it quicker to do on paper ......as I'm scoring each horse I.e ....8 ......I know the percentage for section 1 is 30 (.3 after dividing )....so I automatically just do the sum 8x.3 =2.4 in my head and write that down in section 1 .....saves loads of time later.....its only taking me 20 to 30 mins to rate a 14 runner race now using that
  7. Rated the classic chase ..3.00 warwick saturday .......poor race value wise nearly all are poor value except 1 horse ......achille ....value is 10/1 ....can get 14/1 with bet365 ......hasn't run for 400 days so I was gonna ignore him but sporting life gave him a very favourable write up saying he was a value bet so I'll try 5pts ew
  8. Certainly shows you value can be measured ....like ive said before ....they dont always win but you've seen how often they place at decent prices .....its that long term return that will see you on top long term ....
  9. I'll back criwnthorpe 10pt win 9/2 bet365 Papa stour 5pt ew 13/2 bet365 Count otto 10pt ew 10/1 bet365
  10. With tavrina .. chance of winning 5% that equates to around 17 or 18 /1 are you saying it was value at 8 ?.....Socru definately at 4/1 if you can get 8 on
  11. 310 ling saturday Val Odds avail Huuraz 10/1 8/1 novalue Will to win 10/1 10/1 inflated Top breeze 10/1 7/1 novalue Total commit 5/1 7/2 novalue Recon mission 9/1 100/30 poorvalue Kondratiev wave 9/1 14/1 value Sun power 8/1 7/2 poor value Stake acclaim 13/1 20/1 inflated Count otto 7/1 9/1 good value Deputies 13/1 25/1 inflated Currently ....count otto ew is the value bet .......with kondratie
  12. The prices are ok but I think betfair of another bookie might offer better later ......form ratings are : crown 9.2 corazon 7.8 Intuitive 7.7 papa stour 7.2 so crownthorpe looks a strong bet and is a value price ....exactly what we are looking for papa stour is more an ew bet at 6/1+ I am looking at other races too .....will probably rate 1 or 2 more as well
  13. 1.25 ling Saturday Odds avail Fox power 10/1 4/1 no value Intuitive 11/2 4/1: no value Crownthirpe 9/2 9/2 value Corazon espinado 11/2 9/2 no value Papa stout 6/1 13/2 value Lord rap 7/1 11/2 no value Overall only 1 bookie priced up so far ......but currently the 9/2 on criwnthorpe looks value .....or better later ??.......and the 13/2 on papa stour......value at 6/1 + .......will update later when prices come on line
  14. Yes rheres seems a lot of value in that horse ....there are 4 or 5 in with chances but hes definately overpriced that's pretty obvious....especially as hes flagged on both of ours ...interesting race
  15. 410 newc Wide open race....but pearl of quatar and global humour are in the top 5 form ....and 5pts above their price at 14/1 ....shoukd be 9.....so look ew bets
  16. If anyone wants to try this spreadsheet out p.m me your email and I'll try and transfer from onedrive Only 14 horses .....top 5 fields on the left are 5 sections to fill in your percentages ....it is based on using 5 sections so for this first sheet you need to fill them all in 14 horses underneath each with 5 score sections to fill in ....once you've done that the sheet should automatically calculate the value percentage.....if your only doing a 12 horse race insert 0 in the fields your not using ....it might alter the score very slightly but in tests it's near as dammit.....if yo
  17. How would I upload a spreadsheet onto here ??? I think I might have finished a rough version it seems to be working ok so far
  18. Yeah weve gone from barely value to everyone hunting for value bets in a few days ....its brilliant ...I can see big things happening in this thread....I'm so looking forward to some big races later on ....I really think it will throw up some good winners long term ....it already has .......I will try and do a spreadsheet in the next month or two to automate the whole process and give those who struggle with the maths a chance to use too but I'm swamped at work with this lockdown currently ....no staff due to self isolating etc .....but its top of my to do list now ....especially with hopefull
  19. Yes I can see ....well if it works for you then who cares how you do it....its the end result that counts 🤣
  20. I can see now ........it is a different way but I'm not sure how that would effect the value score .....the original is designed so that every section is on the same scale ...then you can adjust the percentages of each field......the way your doing it assumes all fields are equal but theres no flexibility for change .....it will either work or it wont ....its like you've allocated 25% to each field....all it means is you have less flexibility.....not saying it's wrong...just different .....your way is like setting the percentage to 25 and it stays that way always....do you know what I mean?
  21. Are you doing that differently??...are you just adding up the scores but not multiplying each score by its group percentage ?? Or am I reading it wrong 🤣 Or have you assigned the same percentage to each field so that kinda cancels it out ??. I.e ...are you saying age is equally as important as form ??....and that's why ......just trying to get my head round it 🤔....if your ok with that it's fine.....I'm just trying to understand what your doing lol
  22. No value in this race Triple distilled 19/1 I can get 28 Mustaqqur 50 I can get 66 But I call them "inflated " so not betting prospects imo That's what I was on about earlier .....if a horse has form figures 676 but has a big value diff ....say 20 but you can get 25 .....it looks good on paper but if his overall form is nothing special then hes inflated ....he looks better than he actually is .....that's the minefield of value betting ....all that glistens and all that 🤣
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