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StevieDay1983 last won the day on December 7

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About StevieDay1983

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    The Welsh Moderator
  • Birthday 09/26/1983

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    Ystrad Mynach, Wales

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  1. Larissa vs Atromitos Yes, I know, Atromitos just narrowly let us down for one of our bets last week. Fortunately, the BTTS came in so we didn't lose anything but it was frustrating not to take a big pay out due to a single goal. Anyway, this week, we look to punish them for their misdemeanour when they play Larissa away in a 1pm GMT kick-off from the AEL FC Arena on Sunday afternoon. Larissa sit in the positive position of 4th place in the Greek Super League on 19 points from their 13 league games. A title challenge is looking unlikely with the team 12 points off the pace of front runners Olympiakos and PAOK. However, head coach Michalis Grigoriou will certainly be telling his players that they can launch an assault on the top sides. Qualification for the Championship Round is now a must. Inconsistent home form might be a problem with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses on their record but that can change here. Atromitos just didn't quite come through for us last week but they're in 10th place and only 4 points off the pace of the Championship Round qualification spots. Head coach Savvas Pantelidis will feel his team can get something from this game. Unfortunately, just 1 win and 1 draw from their 6 away games this season shows how poor they've been on the road. It's also now just 1 win from their last 5 matches. I'm going to back a home win here for a number of reasons. Three wins on the bounce for Larissa at home combined with Atromitos boasting a terrible away record makes it the best viable option. I think the failure to get the win last week will have been gut-wrenching for Atromitos and coming to this place against a team that are confident in their own game at home is going to provide a very difficult task for the visitors. Larissa to Win @ 2.45 with Bet365 Larissa HT/FT @ 4.33 with Bet365 @betcatalog, @THEODORE-007, @Magic0024, and @Icongene.
  2. Standard Liege vs Anderlecht Well, there was only going to be one game that we were focusing on in the Belgian First Division A this week and that's the epic clash between the country's two footballing giants of Standard Liege and Anderlecht. The action kicks off at 1:30pm GMT on Sunday afternoon from the Stade Maurice Dufrasne. These two sides are experiencing contrasting seasons but will season form go out of the window for such a huge game? Standard Liege sit in 3rd place in the table and even though they are 8 points off the pace of league leaders Club Brugge it's been an encouraging season so far for Michel Preud'homme's team. Impressive home form that has seen 7 wins, 1 draw, and just 1 loss at home all season has formed the solid foundation for their assault on the title. It might have fallen short but they're well set for the Championship play-offs and who knows what will happen in that stage when all the better teams play each other? Anderlecht continue to flatter to deceive. They've let us down a few times now. Last week was another let-down with their 0-0 draw against Charleroi. That made it three league games without a win and the club is now wallowing in the disappointing position of 11th place. Franky Vercauteren had appeared to be resolving issues but this is now a serious rot for the former league title holders. I simply can't back Anderlecht right now. They've hurt us too many times. As a Club Brugge fan, I will gladly add them to "the list" but it's sad to see because they were always a decent sure-thing and even this season they hit a spell of form that made them good value. I think unless something drastic happens then Standard Liege should win this and inflict more misery on their rivals. Standard Liege to Win @ 2.00 with Blacktype BTTS @ 1.67 with William Hill @laprikon, @VYA, @Magic0024, @the bastardian, @ElPrincipito007, @Chaserapp, and @Marc Kearney.
  3. The Championship is an odd one, @gruja. The odds on Huddersfield remain generous given their improvement in form. I'd encourage backing them still. I understand the Fulham bet too. It seems Scott Parker is good at getting them to bounce back from poor results.
  4. Emmen vs Sparta OK, so this might not be the most attractive fixture in the Dutch Eredivisie this weekend but it's the one I feel has some good value to it. Emmen play Sparta in an 11:15am GMT kick-off on Sunday morning at De Oude Meerdijk. These two sides appear destined for mid-table mediocrity this season but they'll be keeping one eye up and one eye down depending on what the result is in this game. Emmen are 13th in the table but only 2 points above the relegation zone. Head coach Dick Lukkien hasn't seen his team win in four league matches. On a slightly more positive note, it's actually five games unbeaten at home for the team with a 50% win ratio on home turf across the whole season. If they can maintain this encouraging home form then they stand every chance of staying up. Sparta might not be in a much better position than their opponents coming into this game. Manager Henk Fraser will simply be targeting survival after promotion from the second tier last season. His team are currently in 11th place but 7 points clear of the relegation spots. Recent results haven't been great with just 1 win in their last 5 matches but two clean sheets in their last three league games is an encouraging platform to build on. I was swaying between these two sides a lot coming into this preview. Eventually, I felt because I couldn't decide it made sense to back the draw. I don't think either team will be disappointed with a point and they've showed sparks in their performances lately that suggests both might feel they can snatch a win. Ultimately, I think they'll cancel each other out with a 0-0 or 1-1 draw. Draw @ 3.90 with Marathonbet Total Goals Under 2.5 @ 2.65 with Unibet @laprikon, @TOTTI3, @Rimmed, @Magic0024, @Xcout, @FAETTTON, @malabgd, @Niceguy, @craigh, and @Charon84.
  5. What tips are you guys all backing for this weekend? I'll be getting either a Sunday or Monday game preview up but keen to hear your thoughts on the matches coming up. @Pep004, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @four-leaf, @allthethings, @betcatalog, @sajtion, @the bastardian, @chris666, @thegeneral55, @Mindfulness, @stephen m, @teddybear3011, @jazzman02, @Bayern, @Xcout, @Valkovets, @MangoTheThird, @DonPaulo, @Franger83, @fhuefdsa, @dinero, @laprikon, @cluelessG, @Skenderbeg, @Gabosbet, @thinkpink63, @VYA, @balkan-pro, @i1_principe, @Hitch, @vicsuna, @Rey86, @Torque, @LBN89, @craigh, and @scommetix.
  6. Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund OK, so I'm going to begin this week's Bundesliga preview with a disclaimer. I'm going all out on this one. It's high risk, high reward. I don't know why but I just want to take a punt on it. It's Mainz 05 playing Borussia Dortmund in a 2:30pm GMT kick-off on Saturday afternoon at the Opel Arena and I'm going to be backing a particularly specific outcome so brace yourselves. Mainz 05 aren't having the best of seasons so far with the club languishing in 13th place just 3 points above the relegation zone. It's pretty much on par with their expectations but head coach Rouven Schroder will be keen to see his team move away from the danger of the bottom three. Two wins from their last three league games has offered hope and their performances at home this season have been defiant. Despite being so lowly placed they still have a 50% win record at home and even in the games they've lost they have only lost by more than a single goal once and that was to league leaders Borussia Monchengladbach. Borussia Dortmund come into this game knowing that they are at risk of letting the leading side in the division sneak further away from them. Lucien Favre's side are 3rd in the table with RB Leipzig also ahead of them but they're 5 points off the pace of top spot. An unbeaten run of three league games is starting to give them some momentum before the winter break but they come into this game with a distinctly average away record of just 2 wins from their 7 away league games. Right, so here's my tip. It's borderline silly but I just have a feeling. Due to Mainz's resilient displays at home combined with Dortmund's recent form yet inconsistency away from home, I think we'll see a narrow Dortmund win. So I'm going to back Dortmund to win by a single goal. I was tempted by the draw but I do think Dortmund have enough about them to sneak a tight win. Draw (Mainz 05 +1) @ 4.00 with BetVictor Draw HT/ Borussia Dortmund FT @ 5.10 with Marathonbet Magic0024, @malabgd, @sajtion, @betcatalog, @DrO, @Neubs, @Xcout, @Banter1, @Bayern, @DonPaulo, @fhuefdsa, @Franger83, @Uriel18, @VYA, @EuroDream, @JPee, @i1_principe, @euphoria. @Sterphyle, @MisterInstinct, @dylanphan, @Chaserapp, @craigh, and @JKos.
  7. Angers vs Monaco Ligue 1 is a tricky one this weekend with a lot of home sides not generally being considered as reliable bets. I'm taking a punt on one of the teams playing away when Angers face Monaco in a 7pm GMT kick-off on Saturday evening at Stade Raymond Kopa. We've covered Angers a fair bit of the past few seasons with mixed results so let's hope they help us out by taking a beating here... apologies Angers fans but you know... it's betting, nothing personal! Angers sit in 12th place but the club is going through a run of poor results right now. Head coach Stephane Moulin has seen his team lose three league games on the bounce. It hasn't helped that their away form is even more atrocious. Just 1 win in their 8 league games on the road isn't great reading but it's even worse when you see that they haven't won any of their last 5 away matches in the league and have only scored 2 goals during that period. However, this game isn't away and the home form offers more optimism with 2 wins from their last 3 home games. Monaco were anticipated to start afresh this season after last season's calamity. Leonardo Jardim hasn't quite delivered what was hoped with the club toiling in 11th place. The encouraging news is that they remain just 4 points off the pace of the Champions League qualification spots. It's 5 wins from their 8 league matches this season at home and back-to-back wins in the league against Toulouse and Amiens has offered hope that momentum could be being built. I'm always reluctant to back away sides but I just have a positive feeling about this one. Yes, I know, we've been scorned by Monaco before and Angers aren't terrible at home. I just think we're seeing Monaco settling into a bit of good form and we can catch them at the right time in this one. The quality within their squad should be higher placed in the league so maybe we are now seeing them fulfilling their potential. Monaco to Win @ 2.30 with Boylesports Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.80 with Bet365 @Pep004, @sodabrab, @giraldi, @Magic0024, @allthethings, @DrO, @malabgd, @Xcout, @betcatalog, @sajtion, @FCNA, @silver fox, @thinkpink63, @TOTTI3, @Warbirds, and @canaries91.
  8. Granada vs Levante The La Liga fixtures throw up some interesting prices this weekend but the one I'm focusing on is the mid-table battle between Granada and Levante that kicks off at midday GMT on Saturday lunch-time from the Nuevo Estadio de Los Carmenes. I'm relying on the ELO ratings for this one with the home team seemingly being shown to have a heavy advantage heading into this game. Granada are still exceeding expectations after promotion from the second tier of Spanish football last season. Head coach Diego Martinez has guided his players to 9th place in the table and only 3 points outside the Champions League qualification spots. An impressive home record has been key to this success with the team only losing 2 of their 8 home matches so far. Last week's 3-0 win over Alaves put a stop to a winless run of 5 matches in the league. Levante come into this game slightly worse off than their opponents in 12th place in the table but their fans will still be pleased that their team are performing better than last season. Paco Lopez will have concerns over his team's defence over the past couple of games. Back-to-back defeats with four goals conceded in both matches has exposed some frailties. The club also comes into this game having lost 6 of their 8 away league games. As I said in the opening paragraph, the ELO ratings have guided me here but taking a deeper look into this match I feel that backing the home win is even more appealing. Granada appear to have ridden a rough patch and bounced back. Levante haven't shown yet that they can recover quickly from these recent losses and their performances on the road offer little hope to suggest otherwise. Granada to Win @ 2.08 with Marathonbet Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.97 with Marathonbet @Pep004, @Magic0024, @betcatalog, @malabgd, @AndreBR, @Xcout, @four-leaf, @sajtion, @Arkadi Manucharov, @Jamesboaz, @RealUnited, @allyhibs, @jazzman02, @Mr.Paul, @notanotherdonkey, @Marek76, @freestylerx, @DonPaulo, @fhuefdsa, @laprikon, @Gabosbet, @Dr. Florida192, @thinkpink63, @MarioDunav, @EuroDream, @vicsuna, @i1_principe, @dinero, @Sterphyle, @SPACEGHOST87, @Odyssey, @i1_principe, @Rey86, @Sterphyle. @Isalem, and @derbent.
  9. Leeds vs Cardiff Oh, look, it's another Championship preview! And oh, look, it's another game where I get to write about how my Cardiff side probably aren't going to win! I love this job! Anyway, this time it's a visit to Leeds at Elland Road for a 3pm GMT kick-off on Saturday afternoon. I'm not going to lie, I'm not feeling particularly optimistic about this one but I've been surprised before! Cardiff suffered their first loss under manager Neil Harris in midweek away to Brentford. The opening 30 minutes saw us play far too defensively and we were lucky to only be 2-0 down before we got a goal back. Unfortunately, it was too little, too late. We come into this game in 9th place and 3 points off the pace of the play-offs. We possess a terrible away record this season with just 1 win in our 11 away league games. Leeds have looked as impressive as many suspected they may look this season. Marcelo Bielsa has now got his feet firmly under the table at Elland Road and he's getting the best out of this squad of players. The Whites are top of the table on goal difference ahead of West Brom and 11 points clear inside the automatic promotion spots. The club is on a run of 10 league games without a loss including winning the last 7 league matches. It's also 7 clean sheets during that run with no goal conceded during their last four league matches. They also boast the joint second best home record in the division this season. As you can imagine, I'm not exactly buzzing with confidence for this one. If we play like we did for the opening half hour at Griffin Park in midweek then Leeds could well put 3 or 4 goals on us in the first half. However, if we can keep our set-up solid and just work hard then there's no reason we can't snatch a point. Unfortunately, I just think there's a huge gulf in class between these two sides this season. I can see us losing 1-0 or 2-0 at least. Leeds to HT/FT @ 2.05 with Coral Leeds -1 @ 2.00 with Paddy Power
  10. Arsenal vs Manchester City OK, so the big game this weekend used to be a lot bigger. Arsenal host Manchester City on Sunday in a 4:30pm GMT kick-off at the Emirates Stadium. It now just feels like potential title challengers visiting an out-of-form side that have an outside chance of finishing inside the top four this season but are actually now considered more of a Europa League outfit. Arsenal have reached the Europa League last 32 but that's done little to lift the mood around the club. Interim head coach Freddie Ljungberg continues to plod on without any real sign of a permanent appointment being made. It kind of feels like the club is in limbo. The league form of the Gunners has been inconsistent since the departure of Unai Emery. 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 defeat has left the club in 9th place and 7 points off the pace of the Champions League qualification places. Manchester City aren't exactly at the peak of their powers right now either. The media are beginning to hound Pep Guardiola about why his side aren't performing to the exceedingly high levels they have set over previous campaigns. The Citizens are in 3rd place and 14 points behind league leaders Liverpool. If you believe the pundits then you'll think the title race is all but over for City. Just 2 wins from their last 5 league games is very unlike this City side. Injuries still plague the side with Aymeric Laporte, Sergio Aguero, David Silva, John Stones, and Ederson are all ruled out or potentially out of this game. Even though I think this game will be tighter than it would be if City were at full strength, I still think the sensible money has to back the away side. I'm just not convinced by Arsenal under Ljungberg. They need to appoint a permanent gaffer as soon as possible. Until then the results will continue to drift. City have clearly lost confidence in catching Liverpool but they'll keep on going. I think a 1-2 goal win for City is the most likely outcome. I don't think they'll keep a clean sheet though. Manchester City HT/FT @ 2.10 with Betfair Total Goals Scored Over 3.5 @ 1.90 with Betfair
  11. Preston vs Luton My second Championship preview of the weekend takes in the clash between Preston and Luton that kicks off at 3pm on Saturday afternoon at Deepdale. The home side appear to have put an end to their awful run of form and they face a struggling Luton team that are dropping dangerously close to the relegation zone after a run of results that have left the club reeling. Preston might have been off the boil recently but they maintain the strongest home record in the division with 8 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss from their 11 home league games so far. Alex Neil is building a campaign around a fortress at home. The impressive 2-1 win at home to Fulham brought an end to a losing streak of four league games that also saw North End fail to score in that time. That win made it 3 wins from their last 4 home games to help move the club up to 6th in the table and back into the play-off spots. Luton are experiencing slightly trickier times. Graeme Jones had appeared to be adapting his side to life in the second tier but a failure to grind out results is now becoming a problem. 7 defeats from their last 9 league games has left the Hatters in 21st place and just 3 points above the bottom three. The disconcerting thing for Luton fans is that the teams currently in the relegation zone are actually playing well and battling hard to get points on the board. A torrid away form of 9 losses from their 11 away games in the league is a problem coming into this game. This is an encounter between the side with the strongest home record in the league and a side with one of the weakest away records in the division this season. It seems like a simple case of backing the home side. This is the Championship though and it's a cruel mistress at the best of times. I have to bag a Preston win against a Luton side that has conceded 10 goals in its last two league matches on the road. Preston -1 @ 2.88 with BetVictor Preston HT/FT @ 2.75 with Coral
  12. Crewe vs Mansfield League Two gets some attention this week again when we preview the game between Crewe and Mansfield that is scheduled to kick-off at 3pm GMT on Saturday afternoon at Gresty Road. The two sides are experience different fortunes this season but will the result of this match reflect how their seasons have gone so far or will we see a change in form here? Crewe find themselves in 5th place in the league and just 1 point outside the automatic promotion places. It's been a very positive start for David Artell and his players as they continue to show an encouraging evolution under this current management regime. A winless run of three league games has been halted with a 5-0 victory over Morecambe and a 0-0 drew against Forest Green Rovers. Improved performances give me reason to feel they are worth backing in this one. That's particularly the case with just 1 defeat in their last 6 home league matches this season. Mansfield have so far failed to build on last season's play-off finish. The inexperienced John Dempster replaced David Flitcroft as manager in the summer but he's not managed to continue the high level of performance from last season. The Stags are in 18th place and 6 points above the relegation zone. It's now 4 league games without a win as the poor form continues. There is hope for their fans with the club's away form being far better than their home results. Unfortunately, even their away form is just 1 win from their last 4 league games. The smart money appears to be with Crewe here. The ELO ratings are showing favour towards them in the last few games. Mansfield just aren't clicking this season. I've only witnessed the odd performance from them but changing manager can often see a change in philosophy and fortune. Sadly for them, it doesn't seem to be working out and I wonder when the Mansfield board will consider a change. They may be forced to move a step closer to making it after this game. Crewe to Win @ 1.84 with Marathonbet Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.80 with Betfair
  13. I really like that Caernarfon and TNS double bet, @Bang on. Have to agree with you on Rhyl as well, @Wiltshire Shot.
  14. Newtown vs Carmarthen It's a more low-key preview in the Cymru Premier for me this week. Newtown taking on Carmarthen in a 2:30pm GMT kick-off at Latham Park probably isn't a game that's at the top of everyone's prediction list but I thought there's enough value there to make it worth looking at. Can the home team move into the Europa League play-off spots or will the visitors cut the gap at the bottom of the table. Newtown have earned their fair share of decent results this season. Chris Hughes will want to see his side performing slightly better than their current 8th place in the table. Last season's 5th placed finish meant expectations were high heading into this game but inconsistency has foiled the Robins this year so far. A solid home record of just 1 loss in 7 matches in the league has been a great foundation but their away form has let them down. However, with back-to-back away wins, is the tide turning? Carmarthen sit rock bottom of the league with just 7 points from 16 matches. It makes for some very grim reading for the Old Gold fans. The club is now 3 points adrift at the foot of the table and need to start picking up points soon. The hope for Kristian O'Leary's men is that their away record is better than their home record in the league. That's not saying much given they've only won 1 game on the road this season. That's better than the total of 2 points achieved at home! The past three games have been nothing short of a disaster. Three defeats, no goals scored, and 8 goals conceded. I'm going to back Newtown to win this all day long. Carmarthen picked up that shock 3-0 win away to Cardiff Met Uni back on 16th November but it now appears that was a freak result given their form since. Newtown have picked up 3 wins from their last 4 games and they're on the verge of building some momentum. I think they'll pick up a business-like win here. Newtown to Win @ 1.85 with Betway Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.78 with Marathonbet