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Everything posted by Torque

  1. Two goals from Bayern in the first half hour. Wasn't expecting goals that early as sometimes it takes Bayern a while to get going, but obviously welcome. Next stake £215.03
  2. Bet 10. Bayern Munich v Hoffenheim Over 1.5 goals @ 1.07 Bayern have been racking up the goals in recent matches and whilst it can't continue forever, they should be able to at least score against Hoffenheim and then only one more goal is needed to land this bet. It could even be Hoffenheim who get it, as they have a relatively good record in this fixture in recent seasons.
  3. Arsenal take the lead just after the twenty-minute mark. Like the last bet, always nice to get a relatively early winner - so many times it's the other way and you're hoping for a goal in the last ten minutes. Next stake £201.22
  4. Bet 9. Arsenal v Aston Villa Over 0.5 goals @ 1.07 Villa looking rocky at the back after conceding 3 in the last ten minutes against Wolves in their last match, plus strikers who know where the goal is in Aubameyang, Lacazette, Ings and Watkins, suggest at least one goal at the Emirates.
  5. Don't get too down @Fader I'm sure you'll do better next time
  6. Chelsea v Norwich (1) 1.18 Celtic v St Johnstone (1) 1.22 Bayern Munich v Hoffenheim (1) 1.17 10pt treble
  7. Monaco take an early lead. Nice to not have to sweat for a change. Next stake £188.30
  8. Bet 8. PSV v Monaco Over 0.5 goals @ 1.07 I may regret this after such a near miss the last time I bet on a PSV match, but it remains the case that their attacking output is really strong even if they are having some problems putting the ball in the net. Monaco are both scoring and conceding as well and so a goal in this game looks likely.
  9. Yeah was gonna mention the darts as well. Still, I suppose it's something to possibly take advantage of in terms of handicaps or even outrights.
  10. There's definitely something in that idea. It's as though they put all their focus on the idea that they have to win and what the fallout might be if they don't, to the detriment of playing their normal game which of course would probably see them winning comfortably more often than not. I can't explain it otherwise. Allen was horrendous against Evans and even though there were other issues at play I don't think it would have changed the fact that he struggled massively. Evans gave Murphy a hard time the other year as well.
  11. If you're just waiting on Sinner and the other leg is won, then you can type your stake and the odds of the double plus the lay odds for Sinner to win into an arb calculator. That will tell you the amount to lay Sinner for to guarantee an even profit whether he wins or loses
  12. Bayern finally scored after about 70 minutes and then ran riot scoring 4. Really felt like it was destined to be 0-0 though, especially as they've gone so long without one. At some point their streak of goals will have to come to an end. Next stake £176.22
  13. Use an exchange @four-leafeven if they allow it, there'll be no value in it for you.
  14. Wasn't there a live chat thread a few years back Maybe resurrect that...
  15. 2 goals disallowed for Bayern so I think we know this is destined to finish 0-0
  16. Bet 7. Benfica v Bayern Munich Over 0.5 goals @ 1.06 Not much to say with this one. Bayern are usually good for a goal plus they've conceded plenty already this season. There should be at least one goal in this.
  17. After reading about yet another spat between users on this part of the forum, and as a long-term poster here of more than ten years, I thought I'd put forward some thoughts about how to improve the atmosphere on these threads which it seems to me has been going downhill for some time. These thoughts mainly take the form of how I believe a forum like this should operate. Some may agree with me, others may not and that's fine as long as disagreements are handled in the right way - and that's one of the things I'll be discussing later. Firstly, as far as I'm concerned the purpose of the Tennis Forum is to share picks and information to try to help other users to come to an opinion about what they might choose to bet on, whilst bearing in mind that we all bet at our own risk. If anybody chooses to follow any picks put forward by other users then they need to accept that losing is not only possible but inevitable, even if the pick is well reasoned and deemed to contain value in terms of a price that implies a lower chance of a result occurring than is actually the case, and even if the price is short. What this forum shouldn't be about, but increasingly seems to be, is arguing about picks to the point of personal attacks and boasting about wins as well as demeaning anyone who puts up a losing pick. I'm not interested in vaunting tipping superiority or belittling others and I'm not interested in gloating or the goading which also seems to be becoming a regular occurrence, nor am I interested in winning an argument or trying to convince others that I'm right and they're wrong. There seems to be more and more aggressive and confrontational content here, which is sad to see. It should be simple and straightforward to run a friendly forum and all that's required to make that happen is for users to be respectful of each other. If somebody puts up a pick or some thoughts about a match or tournament, by all means other users can disagree or offer a different perspective and that's conducive to a healthy conversation which should lead to more informed betting choices. What's not acceptable though is to respond to what someone has posted with derogatory remarks, either about what they've posted or the poster themselves. As for critiquing a pick after the result is known - another increasingly common sight - that can be a useful exercise in terms of bets going forward, but in terms of the simplistic view that a winning bet is a good bet and a losing bet is a bad one there's no merit in it at all. What counts is the long-term. If you place bets with a better chance of winning than the odds suggest, eventually you will get ahead. It can take some time though and that's down to the variance associated with probability, and probability and the assessment of probability is what betting is in its most distilled form and that's why you can lose lots of bets in a row and look as though you don't know what you're talking about. Conversely, it's possible to win many bets in a row without having any idea what you're doing. Finally, despite all the gloom of the above, there are plenty of users of this forum who post respectfully and have good information and insights to share. It's my hope that by starting this conversation, the forum can return to being the friendly and helpful place that it's historically been. There will always be the occasional troll or misjudged post and that's to be expected, but recently the atmosphere in here has turned pervasively toxic and it would be good to arrest that. Nobody should feel like if they post a losing pick that they're going to get abuse for it, or that they'll get shouted down for voicing an opinion. That's not the way this forum should be.
  18. Finished 3-1 to Inter. They took the lead then got pegged back to 1-1, before scoring a couple more goals to make it a comfortable win. Next stake £166.44
  19. Bet 6. Lay Sheriff Tiraspol to beat Inter @ 20.00 Inter should win this, but I'll cover the draw just in case. Sheriff are top of the group after two wins and the win against Real away from home means they deserve to be respected, but in truth that was a freak result against a Real side who haven't looked that impressive all season despite their decent start to the season in Spain. Inter have started the season well considering they've changed their coach and also their reduced circumstances, losing for the first time in their last game. They've been leaky in defence which should give Sheriff encouragement, but they should create plenty going forward with the pace and direct play of Perisic and Dumfries on the wings.
  20. Seriously in doubt. Just like against Sparta before the international break, PSV couldn't convert their total dominance and superiority into goals until nearly the end of the match. Before they took the lead, as annoyed as I was about the prospect of losing, there was some comfort to be had in feeling like it was just one of those ridiculous days you sometimes see where a team has all the possession and all the chances but just cannot score - the kind of game where you think they could play until next week and draw a blank. There was also comfort to be had in knowing that it was going to be a losing bet no matter which way I went - I'd have layed Zwolle after they scored if I hadn't already backed PSV and as I mentioned earlier I was thinking of backing a couple of goals and both of those bets were set to be a losers until PSV's late flurry. Anyway, after that massive slice of luck this attempt lives to fight another day. After laying out, I effectively backed PSV to win at 1.07 and so profit on the bet was half of what it would have been had I let it run. Next stake £158.28
  21. Soon after I got out, PSV score a third. I couldn't care less though. Before they equalised they'd gone out to about 10 to 1 to win so having got so lucky I wasn't about to take another chance on them holding on to a 2-1 lead.
  22. That's the only consolation. I was debating between the PSV win or at least two goals - went for the win, and after that first goal at least two goals looks a certainty.
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