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Showing content with the highest reputation since 11/06/2023 in all areas

  1. As is often the way in the final week we finish the season with our lowest number of weekly wins, only 13, and biggest overall loss, as the gamblers go big and the risk averse go small odds. But this doesn't detract from what has been a record breaking season! Every Division bar one made a substantial profit overall and the losing Division only made a small loss. And it wasn't just thanks to one or two big individual winners, a fabulous 43 players finished in profit or breakeven and 96 of 108 finishers had at least one winning bet. At the top of the overall league is first season player @HERE who has been magnificent with 8 wins and has staked big but wisely with their bank never being in danger of going bust. Level with 8 wins, and ahead for much of the way, is @corky. These 2 will share the new prize for most number of wins over the season. A long way behind our winner, but with totals over £600 which would have won in some previous seasons, are @ivailobg, @Cuko and @Data with less than £20 between them, followed by @thebestthere also finishing over £500. Our winner for the highest odds win is @Cuko with the 38.628 treble (5.5*2.62*2.75) in week 9. Everyone who completed will be allocated a new Division based on finishing order, for the season to start after the International Break and I'll invite those who busted 'all in' back into Division 6 along with any new or rejoining players. Overall table here and Division winners below. Full details of how to claim your prize shortly...
    11 points
  2. Well that was a lot easier than I thought it would be - was anyone else trying? 😎😈🤣 I'm looking forward to coming bottom next time for that! ⬆️ Many thanks to @avongirl for the time and effort (especially adding up my scores! 🤣🤣). #beginnersluck
    11 points
  3. Well I have just finished my accounts for 2022-23 (1st Nov-Nov) and my profit was just over £17,000 which is a good return, one of my best to be honest, fortunately I reached my threshold by December of last year by way of a few good Lucky 15 results each £1000+ so thereafter everything was profit as long as I stayed within my usual staking pattern. I had 3 maximum bets of £200, two of which won, £200 at 9/2 & 7/2, one of which lost (9/1) although I did have accumulative bets of £150 on Corach Rambler in the grand national at rates down from 20/1 to 10/1 which boosted my profits somewhat. Now here is the thing. Although on the surface of things £17,000 is a good few bob for what is in effect a hobby. Once broken down it doesn't look as good as it equates to about £325 per week, again that looks pretty good for a hobby but here is the rub, break that down to hours spent on inputting Information on spread sheets checking every result of every race and calculating the speed figures then checking every racecard against those thousands of results and times daily becomes not only tediously boring but takes a hell of a lot of time so much so that it equates to about a minimum of 40 hours per week and that excludes all the races I watch both on line and TV, Britain, Ireland, France, and Germany then add on Meydan and other UAE meetings and the total hours spent on racing is over 50 hours per week minimum which works out at just over £6.50 an hour, well below the minimum wage. The money isn't the problem, it is the repetitiveness of the daily grind that then can be thwarted by for example by rail re-alignments on the flat and missed out obstacles on the jumps all corrupting the standard times, we have to expect and accept trainer/owner manipulation of the handicap, what is harder to swallow though is blatant cheating using information that is not available to everyone (Barney Curley was a master at this) This smacked me in the face and brought home what we are up against this week with the Greatwood Hurdle, all my research five weeks ago suggested that the winner would probably be Nemean Lion and I advised and backed it accordingly at what I considered a cracking bet at 9/1 (fav) since then it was backed down to 6/1 and still thinking it was value backed it again at that price (anti post) it has now drifted back out to 9/1 due to the Mullins horse, there is/was very little in the form to suggest that the Mullins horse Onlyamatteroftime would end up 4/1 fav or be anything other than mid betting (should we just back it because Mullins has taken over its training and little else?) Okay Nemean Lion might still win and the Mullins horse be midfield but that's not the point. Racing is in a bad way and my observations of the 2yo this year seems to suggest it is going to get worse, this year I hardly backed a 2yo simply because there was never sufficient form to give confidence to a selection, (so why put all that effort in to the daily grind?) Group races with small fields and horses that had not run more than twice is not a good grounding for decent bets. British jump racing is in a terrible state, come Cheltenham why would you back a British trained horse in a handicap let alone a graded race when you know the Irish are going to bring a horse over that no bugger has ever heard of 20lbs well in to win the pot. So given all the above I have decided that I am going to scale right back and just have the odd sporting bet, I am considering a post naming the best/fastest horse at each AW meeting just to keep an interest so people might like to consider/follow over the next few months. Nemean Lion which I tipped up weeks ago at 9/1 will be my last max bet before I lower that max down to £10 or a rare £20. Yes you can make money on Horse racing but you better be prepared to work hard for it because there are very few if any short cuts other than Lady Luck.
    10 points
  4. That's a shame .....but I get where your coming from ......I'm a professional chef in my day job and my biggest handicap is finding time to rate .....if I've been in a kitchen 10 hrs the last thing I wanna do is come home and rate so I do miss out sometimes ...... It's nice to win of course and I've had some fab wins but I rate and get involved purely for the enjoyment of "getting involved"....and that's the truth ....I love horses. ...Im in awe when I'm standing near the rails and I see them take off like they are flying ....and their intelligence never fails to amaze me .....it's like doing a crossword ....I like the challenge of tackling a race and the money really is 2nd rated for me .....I very much get frustrated sometimes when I've spent an hour rating a race only for 3 donkeys to fill the places and my selections rolling in 6th and 9th ..lol ....but that's racing .....it's not personal .....it's just how it works ....as soon as I've seen the result ..the race is forgotten ....and I move on to the next .... Racing enlightens my life ....challenges me .....some people might find the tackling of a huge handicap daunting or really hard work but I find it soothing 😁....it helps me unwind and there's the social aspect too ...either going to races with friends or coming on the forum it's nice to connect and share thoughts and listen to people's points of views which never fails to fascinate me ..... I hope you find your mojo and stick with us 👍
    10 points
  5. Fredo Banbou 2 45 Aint/ 1/ 40th of a pt ew 18/1 - 3rd Plesant Man 3 45 New/ 1/40th of a pt ew 50/1 - 4th Call me Ginger 3 15 New/ 1/40th of a pt ew 28/1 P/L + 173.45 pts
    10 points
  6. Ground at Ascot is very heavy currently ....really don't like the look of it ....so rated the stayers hurdle at haydock so far ......going to change tack and fully focus on the big Saturday races and trying to get some big wins on the board so I'm going to choose two big Saturday races from now on and place 10pts Ew on the top 2 in both races .....if the any returns I'll pocket half and roll the other half on to the next weekends big race as a bonus win .....should give a bit of excitement over the coming months 💰 Hay 2.20 Bold endeavour. ,9.0 12/1 Lord snootie. 8.9 7/1 Wakool. 8.2 Schalke. 8.2 10pt Ew top 2 😊
    9 points
  7. Cheltenham 1.45 ITV’s coverage starts with a six runner 3M 110 yard listed novices’ chase with all bar rank outsider Cloudy Flamingo having a chance of sorts with the best value possibly lying with Sam Thomas’s Good Risk At All. It looked like he had mastered his main betting rival Giovinco when that one made a mistake and unseated his rider three from home on their chasing debuts at Carlisle 23 days ago impressing with his fluid jumping. He does have to conclusively prove he stays this longer trip but with Sam Twiston-Davies doing the steering can score from the Henderson runner Mister Coffey, who is 0 from 9 over fences. GOOD RISK AT ALL 1 point win @ 5/2 BetVictor Cheltenham 2.20 The meeting’s feature race is the Paddy Power Gold Cup and has attracted a field of fourteen with a very open look about it. Many can be given chances including Laura Morgan’s Notlongtillmay and he’s the pick here. A smart chaser last season who racked up a hat trick in novice handicap chases prior to a good 3 1/4L second in the Grade 1 Turners Chase at the Festival here to the re-opposing Stage Star. He’s 3lb better for a 3 1/2L beating and has teed up for this with a good fourth over an inadequate two miles at the last meeting here when he ran an eye catching fourth (beaten 3 1/2L). He looks fair each way value under Adam Wedge. NOTLONGTILLMAY 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 12345 Lingfield 2.36 The 10F Churchill Stakes is a listed race and can go to the Charlie Appleby trained Blue Trail who is officially the best horse in the field at today’s weights. Not seen since April when disappointing on easy ground he has a big chance if able to reproduce his previous run when spread eagling a fourteen runner field in a Meydan handicap, coasting home to win by 11 lengths. He’s two from four on the all weather and can initiate a Godolphin/ James Doyle double with Mischief Magic in the following contest. BLUE TRAIL 1 point win @ 9/2 BetVictor Cheltenham 2.55 Fifteen go to post for this three mile handicap hurdle which has an open look about it. Plenty of these are coming back from chasing making it even trickier and maybe it’s worth going with the consistent Judicial Law who ran so well at the last meeting when chasing home Hyland in a similar contest over the same trip. Jonjo O’Neill’s six year old has won six of his 17 starts and with just a 3lb rise for that latest good effort can hopefully go one better today. JUDICIAL LAW 1 point each way @ 13/2 bet365 1/5th 1234 Lingfield 3.11 The 6F Golden Rose Stakes is up next, a listed race which has attracted a field of eleven. At these weights the best in is the Charlie Appleby trained Mischief Magic and he’s going to be hard to beat under James Doyle. Good enough to win a Group 3 at Kempton as a two year old along with the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf at Keeneland. Having failed to perform earlier in the season he bounced back to form when winning at Kempton last month and should be too good for these. MISCHIEF MAGIC 2 points win @ 13/8 William Hill Cheltenham 3.30 Just nine go to post for this 2M 5F handicap hurdle which maybe fought out by the two market leaders in Jonjo O’Neill’s re-appearing top weight Springwell Bay and the Olly Murphy trained Resplendent Grey. Slight preference is for the latter as he has had a run this season, when runner up to the smart Captain Teague in the Persian war Novices’ Hurdle at Chepstow in October. This, like his danger Springwell Bay, will be his handicap debut and he can make the most of the 10lb he receives from his rival. RESPLENDENT GREY 1 point win @ 10/3 bet365
    9 points
  8. Cheltenham 1.45 Eleven line up for this two mile handicap chase which has an open look about it. Joe Tizzard’s Triple Trade ran well at the last meeting here when finishing runner up to the Irish winner Dancing On My Own with Guy 4L back in fifth. He can confirm that form and give Joe Tizzard another winner. He’s struck with six of his last 17 runners at the time of writing. A one pound rise is unlikely to bother him here and he may have most too fear from the Skelton runner Calico. TRIPLE TRADE 1 point each way @ 5/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234 Cheltenham 2.20 Just the four line up here for this two mile Grade 2 Novices’ Chase. The favourite JPR One looks bad value at around the 6/4 mark and I’m happy to take him on with Homme Public. Trained by the very much in form Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero he made a winning chasing debut in a handicap at Wetherby last month, jumping particularly well and looks the value bet here under Henry Brooke. HOMME PUBLIC 1 point win @ 5/1 BetVictor Cheltenham 2.55 A field of thirteen for this Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase. It maybe fought out by the top two in the Gordon Elliott trained pair of Delta Work and Galvin. At level weights there was 2 1/2L in favour of Delta Work at the Festival and although he is actually a pound better may have to play second fiddle to his stable companion Galvin who has such a great record fresh and can give Elliott a one two. GALVIN 1 point win @ 7/2 William Hill Cheltenham 3.30 It’s hard to look beyond favourite Captain Teague who can carry a 5lb penalty and beat his seven rivals in this 2M 5F Grade 2 Novices’ Hurdle. A smart bumper horse last season who did best of the English contingent in the Cheltenham bumper in finishing third, he made a winning debut in the Grade 2 Persian War Novices’ Hurdle last month and his trainer Paul Nicholls thinks the world of him. He’ll be very to beat. CAPTAIN TEAGUE 3 points win @ 4/6 William Hill
    9 points
  9. Winners, please can you Message me on here with your PayPal email address and I will collate and pass on to management who will arrange the payments. Also Overall Top 5 please send me your address so we can post out the PL merchandise (mug and pens) if you'd like it. To Message, either hover over my name and click the Message box which comes up bottom left, or click the envelope at the top of the forum page. If you're a previous winner feel free to tag it onto our last messages and just confirm if details are still the same. Give us a couple of weeks to get payments organised. Merchandise is shipped from our suppliers so may take longer - if you aren't in the UK we'll do our best to get them to you, but there are shipping restrictions from our supplier and unfortunately in some cases it might not be possible. Well done everyone. WINNERS DIV 1 @Data £80. @thebestthere £55. @stuboy43 £30. @Xcout £20. DIV 2 @Cuko £60. @Zidane123 £40. @akarsioti £25. @Gizmo £15. DIV 3 @Soi Bongkot £50. @Alley Cat Glover £35. @BARNSLEYCHOP £20. DIV 4 @przemek £40. @Hotpotklonk £30. @adamross £20. DIV 5 @ivailobg £35. @Joelavfc £25. @Artie77 £15. DIV 6 @HERE £35. @DanPUP £25. @Larkin22 £15. HIGHEST ODDS WIN @Cuko £15. MOST WINS (shared) @corky £7.50. @HERE £7.50. TOP 5 OVERALL @HERE, @ivailobg, @Cuko, @Data, @thebestthere PL Mug & Pens.
    9 points
  10. Cuban does the business .....finished +100.00 on the day 😀
    9 points
  11. Won't be able to get a bet for this Saturday, as on a week's holiday to the Canary Islands. Stolen Silver in 2.50 Newbury at 18/1 (William Hill) Empire Steel in 3.05 Newcastle at 10/1 (PP) 2 x singles Each way double
    8 points
  12. Newbury 1.40 Eleven have declared for this 2M 4 1/2F class 2 handicap hurdle which has a very open look about it. If there is one horse that may well be ahead of his handicap mark then it surely is the Nicky Henderson trained Jet Powered who is making his handicap debut here having impressively won a Irish point to point and a maiden hurdle at the track a year ago. He flopped when last seen as a 2/7 favourite last New Years Eve but a mark of 131 may well underestimate his ability and he’s the pick for a team that is in terrific form. With Nico de Boinville up at Newcastle to ride Constitution Hill, James Bowen comes in for the ride. JET POWERED 1 point win 7/2 bet365 Newcastle 1.55 The much awaited re-appearance of Nicky Henderson’s superstar Constitution Hill, the real poster boy of National Hunt racing. Unbeaten under rules in seven starts including six Grade ones with last season’s Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham the stand out victory. He bolted up in this last year and at very prohibitive odds should be winning with his head in his chest. Too skinny to back but a race to watch and savour. Newbury 2.15 Nicky Henderson has won the Coral Bet Bundles Intermediate Handicap Hurdle (better known as the Gerry Feilden) on three of the last four years and looks to have a major chance of enhancing that record with his smart chestnut filly Under Control who’s won four of her five starts so far over hurdles including when defeating her stable mate Iberico Lord who’s already come out and won the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle this season at Sandown when last seen in April. She’s 9lb higher now but could be useful and a recent away day to the track should have put her spot on for this. Her main danger is likely to be the Harry Derham trained Brentford Hope who was so impressive at the last meeting although has been raised 11lb for that victory. UNDER CONTROL 2 points win @ 11/8 William Hill Newbury 2.50 An ultra competitive renewal of the 3M 2F Coral Gold Cup, better known to those of us of a certain age as the Hennessy Gold Cup. A field of twenty have declared and claims can be made for plenty. Paul Nicholls took the first major handicap of the season with Stage Star in the Paddy Power Gold Cup a fortnight ago and can take this with his similarly profiled Complete Unknown. A smart novice last season winning at Ffos Las and Kempton as well as running Gerri Colombe to 7 1/2 lengths in a grade 1 novice chase at Aintree. He’s been out already this season winning a three runner intermediate chase at Newton Abbot in October and has been laid out for this. He looks sure to run his race with luck in running and can be backed each way with additional places. Jonjo O’Neill’s Monbeg Genius looks a danger although his re-appearance run at Ascot was rather disappointing. COMPLETE UNKNOWN 1 point each way @ 15/2 William Hill 1/5th 123456 Newcastle 3.05 Eight line up (although Datsalrightgino and Bill Baxter are more likely to run at Newbury) with the conundrum that is Shiskin making a quick re-appearance after failing to start at Ascot last week. If he jumps off then surely he’ll be able to give weight to some exposed handicappers and it’s worth chancing that he consents to start with last weeks cheek pieces taken off now. Best of the rest may well be Sandy Thomson’s Empire Steel but as long as there’s no shenanigans at the start this valuable prize should be going to NIcky Henderson’s nine year old who may have too much class for his rivals. SHISHKIN 1 point win @ 13/8 888sport Newbury 3.25 Just seven line up for this class 2 2M handicap chase. Dan Skelton’s Real Stone blew his opposition away last time out at Haydock coming home 20 lengths to the good in a hack canter and a rise of 8lb looks lenient to me. He is actually held on his previous start by the favourite here Master Chewy but that was Real Stone’s first run of the season and if in the same form as last time should be hard to beat under Harry Skelton. REAL STONE 1 point win @ 10/3 William Hill
    8 points
  13. I have to say that the National League fixtures in all 3 divisions look really tough this weekend and I only have one bet. It is however a max bet at odds on which is something I rarely do, but confidence is high and for me the value is there. There are 4 other bets at Step 3. Oldham v Ebbsfleet You could see that Micky Mellon has improved Oldham on Wednesday nightagainst Barnet. Having seen some of the comical goals that Barnet have been conceding of late I think he knew that they could allow Barnet plenty of the ball, but they would get their chances. It is no surprise to see that Barnet had 75% of the ball in the first 15 minutes and then 70% in the following 15, but they did very little with it as Oldham made themselves very hard to breakdown. The first shot Oldham had was the penalty which was gifted to them and Barent were fortunate not to have the keeper sent off. In the 2nd half Barnet equalised with a penalty which ended up being their only shot on target. They had looked more likely to kick on and win the game at that stage, but they didn't have another shot for nearly 20 minutes when the game was long gone. Oldham punished Barnet's defensive mistakes which is no surprise given they have someone of the quality of Norwood. If Barnet had taken the good chances that came their way in the first half after the goal maybe we would have seen a different result, but it was the perfect away performance and Oldham have a talented squad. I rarely tip up odds on shots especially ones as short as Oldham, but for me they look good things to beat Ebbsfleet. They did get a point on Tuesday against Maidenhead, but they created very little and had an xG of just 0.16. They are in dreadful form and Oldham should have way too much for them. AFC Sudbury v Stourbridge I don't dip into the Southern Premier Central too often as highlighted by the fact I've only put up 3 bets in the division so far this season. 2 of the 3 bets have been winners though and I am doubling the amount of bets had on Saturday. I will also be content if the number of winners doubles as well. Sudbury have won 3 of their last 4 games including beating Coalville on Tuesday night 3-0. I'd make them favs to beat a Stourbridge who hadn't won in the league for 7 games until beating Long Eaton 3-0 on Tuesday. They are dreadful though (just 4 points so far) and Sudbury put 6 past them recently themselves. The value is there in a home win for me. Berkhamsted v St Ives Berkhamsted aren't much better than Long Eaton and have also won just once this season although 7 draws have helped them get 10 points. St Ives had also only one just once in the league prior to their 3 game winning spell they are currently on. They have beaten Coalville and Halesowen in that spell as well so it isn't like they are beaten rubbish and there is clear improvement in the side. They were 1 up against Aveley in the FA Trophy last week as well before losing 2-1, but that was still a very good effort. If they take those performances into this game then they ought to make it 4 league wins on the bounce. Mickleover v Nuneaton Despite all the off the field issues at Nuneaton they have been doing really well on the pitch. They have won 8 of their last 10 league games and have won 5 on the bounce. They look over priced to beat top of the table Mickleover who after going on an impressive winning run at the start of the season have now not won in 5 league games and lost to Kettering 2-0 on Tuesday night which was a big shock. I don't think there is much between these two sides and therefore the price on Nuneaton is over the odds for me. Carshalton v Wingate & Finchley Into the Isthmian Premier for the last bet of the weekend and I think the away side are a big price to beat a Carshalton side who are struggling after a good start to the season. They have won just one in their last 8 league games and were hammered 4-0 by Hastingson Tuesday night. Wingate's last 10 games have seen them win 5, lose 5, score 19 and concede 19. They did lose on Tuesday 2-1 to Chatham, but they are better than Carshalton and I think Wingate are in better nick than their hosts at the moment. Prices from Friday around 10am Oldham 5pts@ 4/6 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Betfred and Coral (take up to 1/2) AFC Sudbury 1pt @ 17/10 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 11/8) St Ives 1pt @ 6/5 with Skybet and Betfred (take up to Evs) Nuneaton 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365 (take up to 2/1) Wingate & Finchley 1pt @ 15/4 with Skybet and Bet365 (take up to 2/1)
    8 points
  14. Rochdale v Aldershot Look it is fair to say Aldershot's away form is nowhere near the level of their home form as they have won 3 and lost 6 on their travels. Given that it does make it slightly odd they went to Swindon and put 7 past them in the FA Cup, but they have gone to Boreham Wood and Solihull to win away which are tough places to win at. I will also give them a pass at Eastleigh as their keeper got sent off and they ended up with an outfield player in goal. They are just too big not to back here though especially as Rochdale have only managed 2 wins at home this season. I wouldn't say they have played badly as such, but I do think Aldershot carry the bigger threat right now and for me 3/1 is a point bigger than it should be. Woking v Oldham Granted Oldham's last away game in the league saw them have just 3 poor quality shots at Fylde, but they are a big price here so I will take a chance. I think Micky Mellon has a bigger task on his hands than I thought he did when he took over and they haven't really played all that well, but then Woking are in a poor place right now having finally sacked their manager after losing to Oxford City last week. I thought the Ramsgate defeat might have been the final straw but clearly not. So whilst I hardly want to go mad on Oldham they are too big a price to win this as they are more than capable of doing so. Worth adding that Fylde defeat is their only league defeat in 10 although they are drawing lots at the moment. York v Hartlepool York are hardly ones to go mad on either, but I would have them as favs for this and I'm not surprised they are being backed. They have won just once at home in the league and drawn 5 of their 9 games, but their are signs of improvement that don't seem there with Hartlepool right now who have lost 6 of their last 8 games, beaten just Eastleigh and drew 2-2 with Ebbsfleet last week. Whilst it was a dramatic injury time with Hartlepool going 2-1 up and then Ebbsfleet equalise, Ebbsfleet had an xG of 3.12 and Hartlepool's was just 0.9. I was tempted to go 2 points on York, but will stick to a point. Curzon v Matlock Got to chance Matlock given Margetts is now up to 28 for the season which is just mental. He's on fire right now and he will give them a chance of causing an upset against Curzon in the FA Trophy. FCUM v Guiseley The away side are doing very well at the moment having lost just once in their last 10 league games and FCUM are having a poor season so far. They have won just once in their last 9 league games and I'd have the away side as clear favs for this. Prices from 7pm Friday Aldershot 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365 (take up to 2/1) Oldham 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365 and Skybet (take up to 2/1) York 1pt @ 17/10 with Bet365 (take up to 6/5) Matlock 1pt @ 10/3 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 5/2) Guiseley 1pt @ 6/4 with Betfred, Skybet and William Hill (9/5 with 365 and take up to 6/5)
    8 points
  15. Cheltenham 1.10 This 2 mile maiden hurdle may be fought out by Kim Bailey’s hurdling debutant The Kemble Brewery who won at the last meeting here in a bumper and Ben Pauling’s Tellherthename who may have bumped into a smart one of Nicky Henderson’s at Ascot last time when going down by a nose to Jango Baie. The latter will have improved for that run so this former Irish point winner can go one better today under Kielan Woods. TELLHERTHENAME 1 point win @ 2/1 BetVictor Cheltenham 1.45 Just the seven line up here for this 2M 4F Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase where claims can be made for all. It maybe worth chancing the chasing debutant Crebilly who has to give weight away to all in the colours of J P McManus for trainer Jonjo O’Neill. He hasn’t been seen this season but ran out a 21 length winner on his re-appearance last season so hopefully he’ll be straight enough. Last seen winning a valuable handicap hurdle at Sandown in April he was given a positive write up by his trainer in a recent stable file and can take this. CREBILLY 1 point win @ 9/2 Bet Victor Fontwell 2.04 It’s going to be very testing at Fontwell today and this 3M 3 1/2f Southern National handicap chase will take plenty of getting. He maybe the oldest at thirteen years of age here but Emma-Jane Bishop’s Max Dynamo has a very good record fresh having won first time out last season by 25 lengths at Chepstow. 13lb higher here he only has four rivals to beat and looks the one to be on at the prices with James Best on board. MAX DYNAMO 1 point win @ 8/1 BetVictor Cheltenham 2.20 A competitive field of fourteen here for this 3M 3 1/2F Handicap Chase where stamina will be needed in abundance. One horse who stays really well is top weight Cloudy Glen who has an excellent record fresh which reads 14113 including the 2021 Ladbrokes Trophy Chase off of a handicap mark of 140. He can race off of 142 today and his trainer Venetia Williams is in excellent form with a win ratio of 43% at time of writing. Guetapan Collonges will strip fit, stays well and looks a big threat. CLOUDY GLEN 1 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 1234 Cheltenham 2.55 Just the four have declared for the Shloer Chase run over two miles and a classy event it is with Nube Negra who’s won the last two renewals, last year’s Tingle Creek winner Edwardstone and Jonbon who’s won ten of his 12 career starts plus the front running Editeur Du Gite. Jonbon will be hard to beat although first time out is scant value so the pick is Alan King’s Edwardstone who will enjoy the cut in the ground and has gone well fresh in the past. EDWARDSTONE 1 point win @ 7/2 Betfred Cheltenham 3.30 The afternoon’s feature race is the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle which has a very open look about it with a field of sixteen going to post. Many can be given chances but it maybe worth backing the Nicky Henderson trained, JP McManus owned five year old Iberico Lord. With a similar profile to Friday’s winner for the same connection’s Impose Toi, he may have a few pounds in hand of his mark of just 126 and can give Henderson another winner at Cheltenham. Welsh Champion Hurdle winner Nemean Lion and the runner up from that race Anyharminasking (the only horse to have ever beaten Constitution Hill, all be it in a point to point)can also run well in a tough handicap. IBERICO LORD 1 point each way @ 7/1 William Hill 1/5 12345 Cheltenham 4.00 Ben Brookhouse’s Brechin Castle has made a highly promising start to his career having won a point to point at Ballycrystal in Ireland back in February prior to a scintillating victory in a six runner bumper at Sedgefield when pulling well clear of his field which included a well fancied David Pipe runner, showing a good turn of foot in the soft ground to pull clear and win by 14 lengths. This is obviously harder but he’s done nothing wrong and can give his young trainer a winner in this two mile listed bumper. BRECHIN CASTLE 1 point win @ 9/4 bet365
    8 points
  16. 2.30 Navan - COKO BEACH
    8 points
  17. 0.3 e/w Lucky 15 Bet365 BOG 9pts invested American Sniper @ 14/1- won 16/1 Cheltenham 13:10 - Winner 5 - 1/ 5 Returns £0.00 Gold Des Bois @ 12/1-lost Cheltenham 13:45 - Winner 4 - 1/ 5 Returns £0.00 Belgoprince @ 6/1- lost Cheltenham 16:05 - Winner 5 - 1/ 5 Returns £0.00 Francky Du Berlais @ 14/1-placed Cheltenham 14:55 - Winner Return 17.09pts
    8 points
  18. Hi all, I am brand new (10 mins ago!) to this forum and only been watching racing for 2 years now but I love it and I love reading all of your write ups, I admire the knowledge and passion! I was watching the racing at Newcastle on sky yesterday while "Working from home" 🤣 and just wanted to note what I thought would a big factor and may sway some decisions... draws from the middle to high were running really well, some at good prices. So middle to stand side. I just got Sir Maxi in the first with this in mind. There's my 2 pence! Good luck to you all with your selections today! Ching ching!
    8 points
  19. Wincanton 1.15 A 2M 4F conditional jockeys handicap chase starts things off for the ITV cameras today, the first of ten races. Of those ten this is the most uninspiring contest and stakes should be kept to a minimum. One horse who does look particularly well handicapped currently is Robert Walford’s bottom weight Flagrant Delitiep. He ran out an easy winner of a handicap chase over course and distance back in March 2022 but has been in the doldrums a bit since and can race off of a mark 19lb lower. He probably needed his latest run when showing glimpses of his old self and could be the each way value play here. FLAGRANT DELITIEP 1 point each way @ 15/2 bet365 1/5th 1234 Newcastle 1.30 A 10F listed race for fillies with a maximum field of fourteen lining up. Newmarket based handler Charlie Appleby sends a brace to the North Eastern track today and can come home with a double starting with his three year old Veil Of Shadows who has already shown her ability to handle synthetic surfaces by winning on her debut at Kempton as well as finishing runner up in a handicap at Wolverhampton. Her career best run came last time out in a group 3 at Newmarket on soft turf ground when runner up to the progressive Novus and as the official highest rated horse in this field and with the assistance of William Buick can strike for team Godolphin. VEIL OF SHADOWS 1 point win @ 3/1 William Hill Wincanton 1.50 Very soft ground is probably not ideal for Paul Nicholls’s Knappers Hill in this six runner 2M 4F ‘Rising Stars” novices’ chase and although he is rated officially 13lb and more better than his opponents and should be winning is scant value at around the 4/6 mark. I’ll take him on with a very interesting runner from the Evan Williams camp in Doyen Star who is unbeaten in three starts, a maiden point to point and two novice hurdles at Chepstow. He needs to improve plenty to beat the favourite but as this is his fencing debut there could be plenty of improvement to come and is worth chancing. DOYEN STAR 1 point win @ 8/1 BetVictor Newcastle 2.05 A field of eleven here for this 6F listed contest where William Haggas’s Sense Of Duty, as the highest rated today, looks the one they all have to beat. He was a very impressive winner over course and distance in the Group 3 Chipchase Stakes in the summer of 2022 and if anywhere near that form should be tough to beat. The heavy ground and drop in trip were probably against her on her re-appearance and she was no doubt out of her depth in Group 1 company last time (as well as the ground possibly against). William Haggas has his team in fine form running at a win ratio currently of 34% and she looks worthy of a bet SENSE OF DUTY 2 points win @ 5/2 bet365 Wincanton 2.25 Frodon is back to defend his title here in the 3M 1F Badger Beer Handicap Chase off of the same mark as when making all last year. That came on fast ground mind and with the ground riding very soft is opposable today. A value each way play maybe one of the quartet of Anthony Honeyball runners in Blackjack Magic under Rex Dingle. He has a very good record fresh and winning form on heavy ground so with his trainer amongst the winners recently can out run his odds here. BLACKJACK MAGIC 1 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 1/5th 1234 Aintree 2.45 Just nine have declared for this year’s renewal of the Grand Sefton Handicap Chase run over 2m 5F of the Grand National fences. In Oliver Greenall & Josh Guierriero’s Gesskille we have a very solid bet with the seven year old fully proven on heavy ground and has shown his liking of these unique fences when runner up in this race and the Becher Chase last season. He comes here fit having won a listed chase in France at Auteuil in September and he looks a solid bet under Henry Brooke. GESSKILLE 2 points win @ 10/3 BetVictor Wincanton 3.00 Just the five here for the 1M 7F 50 yard Elite Hurdle with a warm favourite in the shape of recent Kempton winner Rubaud trained by leading trainer here Paul Nicholls. He is the most likely winner but has to shoulder a 6lb penalty here and may not want the ground too soft. At the prices I’ll take Gary Moore’s Hansard to make a winning re-appearance. A dual novice hurdle winner last season he ran his best race on his final start when fourth of 14 in a grade one novice hurdle at Aintree finishing just under a couple of lengths behind the useful mare Luccia. HANSARD 1 point win @ 7/4 William Hill Aintree 3.20 A disappointing turnout of just three hurdlers line up here for this class 2 2M 4F contest. Olly Murphy’s Brewin’upastorm was very impressive in winning this two years ago and despite unseating at the start last year looks the most likeliest winner despite a 6lb penalty for his grade 2 win at Fontwell last February. His biggest threat may come from the Dan Skelton trained West Balboa. BREWIN’UPASTORM 1 point win @ 7/4 Betfred Wincanton 3.32 Paul Nicholls was very complimentary about this six year old mare in a recent stable file and could be well handicapped on her handicap debut following wind surgery. A winner of a Chepstow bumper and a novice hurdle here last season she has had wind issues and the aforementioned operation may hopefully improve the Walk In The Park mare in this 2M 5 1/2F mares handicap hurdle. LIME AVENUE 1 point win @ 9/4 William Hill Newcastle 3.45 It’ll be a rather different November handicap this year having been transferred from Doncaster where we would have had 23 runners on heavy ground as opposed to just the fourteen on the synthetic surface here. The favourite and the one to beat is the Charlie Appleby trained Local Dynasty. He, like plenty of Appleby’s, has been gelded since last seen back at Newmarket at the July meeting when a creditable fourth of 12 when very well backed. He’s yet to race on a synthetic surface but his dam was a winner at Chelmsford (as well as the dirt at Meydan) so theres plenty of hope in his bloodline that he’ll handle the surface today. The race is not as competitive as you would expect and he can form the last leg of a Godolphin and William Buick double at the North Eastern track. LOCAL DYNASTY 2 points win @ 9/2 Boylesports
    8 points
  20. Newbury 1.15 The first of five races shown by ITV from the Berkshire track is this 2 mile 69 yard fillies juvenile hurdle in which the Irish raider Wodhooh will be hard to beat. Trained by Gordon Elliott she’s three from three over hurdles so far with victories at Listowel, Punchestown and Down Royal. She got the better of a Joseph O’Brien previous winner by a neck (18 lengths back to the remainder) at the latter 20 days ago and that should be good enough to defeat the British contingent who have been plying their trade around some of the lesser tracks over here in the last coupe of months. She’ll be short but it’s hard to look beyond Wodhooh. WODHOOH 2 points win @ 4/6 bet365 Newbury 1.50 Just six line up for this 2M 4F Grade 2 novices’ chase with four of the sextet having already jumped a fence in public. One of the two who haven’t is the Paul Nicholls trained Hermes Allen who won the Challow Hurdle here a year ago. By all accounts he jumps fences brilliantly and having won first time out last season by a wide margin has plenty going for him. He’s the highest rated hurdler of the six and can make a winning chasing debut. There will be plenty of pace on here with the likes of the selection, Nickle Back and Tightenourbelts all happy front running. The last named impressed last time on his chasing debut and could be the one to chase the selection home. HERMES ALLEN 1 point win 11/8 William Hill Newbury 2.25 A competitive nine runner class 2 2M 4F handicap chase where Paul Nicholls’s Kandoo Kid can run a big race. He improved plenty for his chasing debut at Warwick when going down by a neck to Galop De Chasse over course and distance at the last meeting here. The pair pulled 32 lengths clear of the third, who was Our Jet who won in the week at Kempton to frank the form. A 6lb rise for that fine effort looks acceptable and he can take this from the Jonjo O’Neill runner Iron Bridge who has won first time out the last three years. KANDOO KID 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365 KANDOO KID & RAMO 1 point each way double @ 7/2 (1/5 123) & 4/1 (1/5 1234)bet365 Newbury 3.00 The feature race of the day at the Berkshire course is the 3M Long Distance Hurdle. It appears to be between the front three in the betting as the other trio have plenty on at the weights today. Paisley Park has a good record in the race but is rising twelve years of age now whilst the highest rated Dashel Drasher is maybe the biggest threat to Nicky Henderson’s tough mare Marie’s Rock. She’s shown top form over the last two years including when runner up to Sire Du Berlais at Aintree last April when last seen. She’s still unexposed at three miles and with her stable in such fine form is hard to oppose in a race which the stable won last year with Champ. MARIE’S ROCK 2 points win @ 10/11 William Hill Newbury 3.35 A dozen staying hurdlers line up for this 3M class 2 handicap hurdle. Venetia Williams has her string in fine shape and can take this with her stout stayer Ramo. He made a winning seasonal debut over a trip that was on the short side for him at Ludlow earlier this month under Miss Lucy Turner, form which has been franked since by the subsequent victory of the runner up Midnightreflection. Charlie Deutsch takes over now and a 5lb rise looks reasonable. Nicky Henderson’s Hyland did it well at Cheltenham and drying ground suits him. He looks a big danger to the selection. RAMO 1 point win @ 4/1 bet365
    7 points
  21. Congratulations as always to all the winners
    7 points
  22. Haydock 1.15 A competitive looking 2M 3F handicap hurdle where the in form Nicky Henderson trained Park Hill Dancer appears to hold as good a chance as any. The Henderson stable are on fire at present and this Middleham Park Racing owned six year old may still have some mileage on his on his current handicap mark. Not seen since May when winning at Uttoxeter, the Sean Bowen ridden gelding is now 8lb higher but at the right end of the handicap and looks likely to go very close. PARK HILL DANCER 1 point win @ 4/1 BetVictor Ascot 1.30 Just the four for the Nirvana Spa 1965 Chase, a Grade 2 chase run over 2M 5F. Shishkin makes his re-appearance here sporting first time cheek pieces and as he has already slaughtered his main danger here Pic D’Orhy by 16 lengths over course and distance last season it’s hard to look beyond Nicky Henderson’s nine year old who, under Nico de Boinville, is officially rated 11lb better than Pic D’Orhy and 10lb and 26lb superior to the other two competitors Minella Drama and Straw Fan Jack. BRAVEMANSGAME /SHISHKIN/ STATE MAN 2 points win treble @ 9/10, 4/6 & 1/3 BetVictor Haydock 1.50 An intriguing five runner 2m 5 1/2F Graduation Chase with three possible winners as the two outsiders Scipion and Hardy Bloke have far too much to do. Willie Mullins’ Grand National third Gaillard Du Mesnil has to be respected but may find this trip too sharp and in receipt of a hefty 18lb Apple Away can make a winning chase debut. She was a smart novice last season over hurdles culminating in victory in the Grade 1 3 mile novice hurdle at Aintree which has worked out brilliantly with the 3rd, 4th, 6th and 7th all winning well since. APPLE AWAY 1 point win @ 5/2 888Sport Ascot 2.05 The 2M 3 1/2F Coral Hurdle has attracted a small but select field of just five with each of the quintet having a chance of sorts. Maybe the best value is Olly Murphy’s Strong Leader who we have to forgive a disappointing first run of the season when finishing last of ten in the Welsh Champion Hurdle. He’s better than that and the step up in trip may suit this six year old who was a smart novice hurdler last season winning three times and concluded his season by finishing runner up to Inthepocket in a Grade 1 at Aintree. Last year’s winner Goshen maybe the one to chase him home. STRONG LEADER 1 point win @ 6/1 bet365 Haydock 2.20 The most competitive race of the day is the sixteen runner Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle run over three miles. The two favourites are Fergal O’Brien’s Crambo, who looked good at Aintree but is now 6lb higher and Emmet Mullins’ Slate Lane who’s chasing a four timer but this is easily his stiffest task and he’s up a stone for his latest victory. It wouldn’t be a shock if either were to win this but I can’t resist an each way bet on Willie Mullins’s Fine Margin. He’s still a maiden after six outings but there were all for Matthew Daly who’s not had a winner under rules the last five years in Ireland so surely Mr Mullins is going to improve him massively especially now he’s upped in trip. He’s worth a chance at a nice price and don’t rule out Tom Lacey’s Howlingmadmurdock from a yard in fine form and is worth a small each way saver. FINE MARGIN 1 point each way @ 12/1 BetVictor 1/5th 12345 HOWLINGMADMURDOCK 1/2 point each way @ 20/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345 Punchestown 2.35 Only four have declared for this 2M 160 yards Morgiana Hurdle with Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott both saddling a brace of runners a piece. This looks a penalty kick for Mullins’s State Man who’s only defeat last season came when runner up to Constitution Hill in the Champion Hurdle. I can see him being smashed off the boards and if a big priced odds on chance is your preference than this is very much one for you. Too short for a single so lets try a win treble with Shishkin and Bravemansgame. Haydock 3.00 The day’s feature race at the Lancashire track is the 3M 1 1/2F Betfair Chase. Paul Nicholls’s Bravemansgame is a confident selection. He’s sure to strip fitter for his second in the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby three weeks ago when he looked all over the winner going to the last only to make an error and allow Gentlemansgame to out sprint him on the run in. He is a consistent top class chaser and although last year’s winner Protektorat may push him hard I fully expect Daryl Jacob to steer him home. Ascot 3.15 Eight two mile chasers line up for the valuable Hurst Park Handicap Chase with cases made for many. Top weight Boothill won this last year and looked good at the last meeting but on a run at Kempton last Christmas he may struggle to hold Chris Gordon’s Aucunrisque who was only beaten a length but re-opposes here on 11lb better terms. He went on to win the Betfair Hurdle back over hurdles and may have just needed his first run back this season when third over hurdles. Back over fences he looks a decent value each way bet. AUCUNRISQUE 1 point each way @ 7/1 888Sport 1/5th 123 Haydock 3.35 Eleven line up for this 3M 1 1/2F handicap chase which has an open enough look about it. Nicky Richards’ Famous Bridge looks sure to be thereabouts but maybe Anthony Honeyball’s Credo represents better value. A consistent eight year old mare she impressed when winning on her re-appearance at Wincanton by 6 1/2L and even with a 7lb rise in the weights can be competitive with Sam Twiston-Davies taking over on her for the first time today. CREDO 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 1234
    7 points
  23. 255 chelt Buddy one 8.8 6/1 Come on teddy. 8.8 14/1 Judicial law 8.2 Difficult race to rate with a few of these reverting from chase to hurdles ....buddy one looks a solid hurdler and should run well .....the dark horse appears to be come on teddy .....he will have to overcome a 2 year layoff but it appears the handicapper has given him every chance if the trainer can get him ready ....let's take a chance for a bit of fun. ....5pt Ew ...top 2
    7 points
  24. Cheltenham Open Meeting - Saturday 18th November 2023 12.35 Cheltenham – The JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle (Registered As The Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle) (Grade 2) (JH) A key trial for juveniles heading onto bigger and better things and progressing through the ranks is the opener to a fantastic day’s racing at Cheltenham on Saturday. J P McManus won this race with the fabulous Defi Du Seuil and today could be back with redemption with the Noel George & Amanda Zetterholm-trained Milan Tino. Despite not winning on his two starts to date in France, he has shown some strong form over in France, having been placed twice at Auteuil in Listed/Graded level. Both runs were over further than this though and the ground might prove too quick for his liking. Ellerton is the other with French form, but it doesn’t stack up to the same level. An Bradan Feasa proved he was much suited to hurdles when bolting home by eight lengths in a Ballinrobe maiden for Joseph O’Brien. However, you would have thought that if he was going to be anything better than useful, he would have stayed with connections. Although fair on the Flat achieving a rating of 72, Gifted Angel was 0-14 but has really found his feet over hurdles making it 3-5 when easily winning at Kempton. He is by far the most exposed in the field and albeit his experience could come in handy, he is only rated 120 and you would hope that there are others in here that will achieve more. Eagle Prince was a surprise winner on debut at Sedgefield at 10/1 but it wasn’t the deepest race by any means, and he only won by a neck. Only rated 60 on the Flat, he was clearly crying out for this step up in trip, so there could be more to come over this distance. However, I just don’t think he will have the speed to keep up with these in the hands of Nico and the same can be said for Wetherby debut winner I Still Have Faith, who has the hood applied again. The filly Parish Road was simply outclassed at Chepstow and the handy fillies’ allowance might not be enough to remain competitive here, while Knight Of Allen makes his racecourse debut and will probably be too green at the first time of asking. From a win point of view, I feel like the value must lie with the James Owen-trained Burdett Road over the current favourite. Since finishing third in a Group 3 in August and racing in a hood, he remained very keen last time out at Huntingdon due to the modest pace. He still jumped neatly though, and you can see him going from the front again, although he does need to learn to settle and handle the winter ground. Nevertheless, the selection here is no other than GALACTIC JACK. His connections, Mark & Maria Adams, clearly hold this race in very high regard as they won this last year with Scriptwriter. Making his name known of the Flat achieving a rating of 95, he will surely have a lot more scope in the juvenile hurdling division. A winner over 1m4f already, you would expect him to stay this trip at a steadier pace and he looks overpriced on hurdling debut. bettrends Advice: GALACTIC JACK 0.5pt E/W @ 20/1 (William Hill) 1:45 Cheltenham – The From The Horse's Mouth Podcast Novices' Chase (Listed Race) (JB2) A race won by subsequent Brown Advisory winner, The Real Whacker, last term we are treated to another really interesting renewal this year. We can start with the mercurial Mister Coffey for Nicky Henderson who, somehow, is still actually a novice and is still a maiden over fences in nine starts. The eight-year-old has been the epitome of the old saying ‘always the bridesmaid and never the bride’ and despite never winning over the larger obstacles, has notched up five runner-up spots and two thirds; a consistent performer who never wins! He has proved he runs well at Cheltenham though, second in the Kim Muir in 2022 and third in the National Hunt Chase in 2023. He was last seen jumping the last in the Grand National with subsequent winner Corach Rambler after an impressive round of jumping in the main before falling away on the long run-in and he does arrive here as the highest rated in the field. However, from a win perspective, we are happy to look elsewhere here despite his obvious claims and he will no doubt still be involved in the finish. The horse that makes appeal here is GOOD RISK AT ALL for Sam Thomas, who made an encouraging start to life over fences when winning at Carlisle over 2m4f. Granted the main principal that day, Giovinco, did fall at the third last just as they began to get racing, but the seven-year-old jumped and travelled exceptionally on debut and looks one to follow over the bigger obstacles; Giovinco backed up at Aintree when last seen too. Although his main rival was a faller, he still had the reopposing Alaphilippe well back in second, beaten 16 lengths, and it was still a mightily impressive performance. Although only tried at three miles once as a hurdler, when sixth in the old Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock, he has always shaped as a stayer and should improve for the step up in trip on Saturday. He was rated as high as 143 as a hurdler, and if he can surpass that rating as a chaser, it would likely be enough to win this contest. Sam Thomas has been in good form to start the season, operating at a 25% strike rate, as has jockey Sam Twiston-Davies, and everything points towards a good run from GOOD RISK AT ALL. It is also interesting that Sam Twiston-Davies has chosen to ride our selection, as it would be imagined he also had the pick of his father’s two runners: Weveallbeencaught and Broadway Boy. Broadway Boy is interesting as the five-year-old proved progressive at the back end of last term, landing two handicap hurdles, and took his form up a notch when bolting up on chase debut in September at Worcester, beating Mofasa by over nine lengths; Paul Nicholls’ horse has since boosted that form by winning at Leicester on his next start. He then came here over course and distance and gave classy stayer Flooring Porter most to think about on his chase debut and perhaps would have gotten closer if not for a couple of mistakes at the final couple of fences. From a mark of 137, he looks tailor-made for a big staying handicap but has chosen to come here instead; even if beaten here, he would be of interest if stepping into handicap company further into the season. Stablemate Weveallbeencaught was over a length behind at Cheltenham that day, but again appeared lethargic and cumbersome, just as he did on a few occasions over hurdles last year. He burst onto the scene when chasing home Hermes Allen on hurdles debut, got off the mark here at Cheltenham and finished seventh in the Albert Bartlett so he no doubt holds plenty of ability, but he has to get back on track here. He has always looked a big, galloping chaser in the making though so could come forward with that chase debut under his belt. As mentioned earlier, Alaphilippe was well beaten behind our selection at Carlisle last time, but it is worth noting that he was making his chase debut after 588 days off the track and will no doubt have needed the run after such a long layoff. A talented hurdler, he won the Grade 2 Prestige Novices’ Hurdle before finishing fifth in the Albert Bartlett in 2021 and would then be beaten just a neck in the Pertemps in 2022 from a mark of 138. A real strong stayer, he should come on for that first run, but I am always nervous about injury-plagued horses embarking on a novice chase campaign later in their career and he may have less scope for improvement than a few of the younger horses in this field. Point-to-Point winner Cloudy Flamingo makes his rules debut for Keiran Burke here, but he has only completed two of his last five starts in that sphere and it would be a huge surprise if he were good enough to win this. bettrends Advice: GOOD RISK AT ALL 1pt WIN @ 15/8 (Bet365/William Hill) 2:20 Cheltenham – The Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (JB2) After outlining the trends and running our tried and tested trends system on the whole field in our Handicap Breakers service, we have four horses who come out on top and make it onto our shortlist. The first of those is the Brown Advisory winner from the 2023 Cheltenham Festival, THE REAL WHACKER, who must carry top weight with a rating of 162 due to last season’s successful exploits. Patrick Neville’s progressive seven-year-old won all three starts over fences at the track last term, jumping them into submission on both the old course and new course. Although a winner at the Festival over three miles, he did win the Grade 2 Dipper over this trip and is perhaps seen to best effect bowling out in front over the shorter trip and turning it into a real stamina test on the front end; think Coole Cody and Baron Alco who have won this race in recent years with similar tactics. Gerri Colombe, second behind THE REAL WHACKER in March, has already came out and won an open Grade 1 and is now second favourite for the Gold Cup, so there is no doubt THE REAL WHACKER is the best horse in the race on ability. Granted he must carry a lofty weight here, but with his excellent jumping and cruising speed, he really could take a fair bit of pegging back under Sam Twiston-Davies here, especially on the old course, and he is the selection here. Next up on the shortlist is Dan Skelton’s Unexpected Party, who has chosen to come here rather than the much easier assignment of the Grade 2 novice chase on Friday, so the top target trainer clearly believes his runner has as good a chance as any in this field. Winless as a novice chaser last term, he did run some nice races in defeat but was over eight lengths behind Stage Star in the Turners, although was barely put into the race from the rear that day. The eight-year-old did return with a good victory in Listed company at Chepstow though, and the second, Knappers Hill, has given that form a real nice boost since, bolting up in the Grade 2 Rising Stars Novice Chase last weekend. He gets in here from a mark of 146, a 9lb weight swing with Stage Star, and you would imagine this has been the plan for some time; he could be well-treated here. Joining the shortlist is also the nine-year-old Angels Breath. Sam Thomas’ charge was a mightily impressive novice chaser back in 2019 for Nicky Henderson, beating First Flow by eight lengths before cantering to a 23 length success in a Grade 2 at Ascot. He has had injury issues since but returned to the track for his new trainer in January after over 1000 days away from the track. He clearly struggled after the layoff last term, but returned this term after a full summer on his back with a solid second in a handicap hurdle here at Cheltenham. He drifted before the off that day, so may not have been fully ready, so that was a good performance with the Paddy Power Gold Cup in mind. If showing any of his old ability over fences, he could appear thrown in here from a mark of just 144. Last but not least, rounding out our shortlist is Laura Morgan’s admirable seven-year-old Notlongtillmay, who chased home Stage Star when second in the Turners in March and now gets a 3lb weight swing with that rival. An incredibly progressive novice chaser who won his first three over fences in impressive style, he ran a cracker at the Festival at massive odds and looks to have a great chance here. He returned with a nice prep run over the shorter trip of two miles here at the track back in October, staying on into fourth, and that will likely put him spot on for his big target here in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. bettrends Advice: THE REAL WHACKER 0.5pts E/W @ 7/1 (Bet365, 5 places) 3.30 Cheltenham – The Paddy Power Intermediate Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) (WU) Resplendent Grey put up an excellent effort in behind Captain Teague in the Persian War Novices’ Hurdle at Chepstow. He was eventually beaten 9 ½ lengths but the winner is clearly a Graded performer, and he was very much ridden with winning in mind, which no doubt cost him in the finish. A 6lb rise doesn’t look beyond him but it was harsh none the less and this doesn’t look an easy assignment on only his fourth start over hurdles. He may prove to be the big danger but he’s a lot to prove against some more experienced opponents. Matthew J Smith enlists first time cheekpieces to try and bring Another Choice back into the winners’ enclosure. This looks a tough assignment for all he does have some useful form. He wouldn’t want the ground to be too soft and the handicapper has chosen to raise him 6lb from his Irish mark. Londonofficecallin is the other Irish raider for the McNamara pairing. He could well prove popular in the market with a string of ones next to his name, with his last win coming at Killarney. That was a good performance, and he does look to be an improving type that could defy the 16 extra pounds he is due to carry. There is plenty of upside, but he’d need to continue his upward trajectory to land a blow here. Tiger Jet is once again partnered by Harry Cobden and will no doubt strip fitter for his first outing after a break. The trip and ground would not have played to his strengths that day and Brian Ellison has already said that quicker ground is the key to this horse. His mark looks workable on previous results but the forecast rain could prove a problem. SPRINGWELL BAY carries top weight for the O’Neills but on all known form is much better than this field. They’ve opted to keep him over hurdles and a nice pot like this looks the obvious starting place for a potentially Graded runner. He’s been dropped 3lb for his sixth in the Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle and will be facing nothing of that quality here. His only other start at Cheltenham saw him finish third where he already looked as though a step up in trip would suit. They think a lot of him at home and he’s got more than enough form in the book to see him win a race of this quality. He’d be a strong selection and there looks to be plenty of value in his price. bettrends Advice: SPRINGWELL BAY 1pt WIN @ 2/1 (Various) 4:05 Cheltenham – The Karndean Designflooring Mares' Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed Race) (JB2) The concluding race on Saturday is the mares’ bumper and the market, as is usually the case in these races, is made up by a Willie Mullins horse and it is no surprise to see why; the master of Closutton has an unprecedented 53% strike rate in bumpers in Ireland this term. He sends the four-year-old Baby Kate here, with Brian Hayes getting the leg up rather than usual number one Patrick Mullins, who stays in Ireland. The daughter of Champs Elysees is out of a smart mare trained by Mullins, Augusta Kate, who herself won two Listed bumpers and was a Grade 1 winner over hurdles. She made good on her lovely pedigree when winning a bumper on debut at Ballinrobe and, despite racing wide early, stayed on strongly all the way to the line to win by a length from subsequent winner Switch From Diesel. She looks a strong stayer who will relish the Cheltenham hill and, like her dam who ran in the Albert Bartlett as a novice, may prove to be a staying type when switched to hurdles further down the line. A Mullins bumper horse, especially with a strong pedigree, must always be respected but his record in the mares’ bumper at the November meeting here leaves a bit to be desired; all fives horses he has sent here in the past decade have been beaten, and three of those were short-priced favourites. This gives us enough to take Baby Kate on, and there is plenty of value to be had elsewhere in the market. The one that makes appeal here is SHARP OBJECT, who actually beat the aforementioned Switch From Diesel more convincingly on debut despite that rival having more experience on that occasion; she hit the front and kicked clear powerfully, putting over four lengths between herself and the second. Trainer John McConnell actually has an excellent record in UK bumpers, with a 21%-win rate across the last five seasons, and he has already hit two winners in this sphere from three runners in Britain this season. SHARP OBJECT doesn’t have as flashy a pedigree as Mullins’ raider, but the daughter of burgeoning NH sire Diamond Boy (sire of L’homme Presse and Impaire Et Passe) is related to Cheltenham Festival winner Finger On the Pulse. Following her impressive debut, the four-year-old chased home the superbly bred (out of Quevega and a full sister to Facile Vega) and potentially smart Aurora Vega in Listed company, and it would be a surprise if there is anything of that level lurking in the field here. The third has since won easily over hurdles, and a repeat of that effort should see SHARP OBJECT right there. Nicky Henderson sends dual bumper winner Easy Peasy, who won as her name suggests on stable debut at Plumpton back in September. The form of that four-runner race is little to shout home about, and is actually pretty poor, but she did it nicely and has a nice flat pedigree which will stand her in good stead here. Moving one from powerful yard to another, and Paul Nicholls sends the experienced Larchmont Lass here who got off the mark in bumpers last term at the third time of asking after a couple of placed efforts. She battled on well in desperate conditions at Sandown to get the better of Casa No Mento, and that rival has since won easily on hurdles debut. It is unlike the Nicholls yard to keep one in bumpers, so it is interesting that he sends the five-year-old here rather than embark on a novice hurdle campaign immediately. Mick’s Jet won a big-field bumper over course and distance here in April in dominant fashion, hitting the front early and striding clear to a nine-length success at huge odds. She was disappointing when a well-beaten fourth on seasonal return, but a repeat of that Cheltenham success would put her right in the mix, although trainer Philip Kirby is 0-8 in bumpers so far this term. Of those at a bigger price, another Irish raider in the form of World Of Fortune is interesting and could be slightly overlooked in the market for a slightly lesser known trainer in Liam Kenny. The daughter of Soldier Of Fortune was just denied on debut at Tipperary but got off the mark in fine style next time at Wexford back in May with a comfortable six-and-a-half length success. The second that day, Familiar Dreams, had already finished second in a Listed bumper and the third, Rhaenyra, had finished second in a Grade 3 at Punchestown, so the form reads well. bettrends Advice: SHARP OBJECT 1pt WIN @ 9/2 (Various) NAP: SPRINGWELL BAY NB: GOOD RISK AT ALL
    7 points
  25. Shout out to @The Brigadier going for 6/6 on naps today and sitting in 3rd place.
    7 points
  26. Spirit of Ash - WON
    7 points
  27. Ground isn't brill at all on the courses especially aintree where it's literally a mudpit so I'll just stick to a race on the a.w 730 chelm The waiting game and Cuban breeze had a battle royale lto with the former just coming out on top bookies seemed to have overlooked the pair but ....speed ratings suggest that was a fast rAce and the latter is two pounds better off at the weights ....priced at 10/1 and 14/1 they both look very overpriced so I'll try 5pts Ew both as it's a quiet day ratings wise
    7 points
  28. My 3 against the field in the Hennessy (drat, Coral Gold Cup) all 3 are younger horses who might have not yet have been captured by the handicapper Midnight River - has some top handicap form in big fields having won a couple of grade 3 handicaps with 15/16 runners Mahler Mission - has grade and listed race wins at around 3 miles, looks like a real stayer Stolen Silver- looked to improve a lot when stepped up to 2m 7f and the extra 3 furlongs here might bring out more If I have to pick one I'd go for Midnight River on the basis that we know he handles these big field handicaps.
    6 points
  29. Thank you all for the 'likes' much appreciated. Thank you MC for running the comp , again much appreciated. Well done to all , commiserations to mick33 leader from day one . Good luck everyone for the December comp.
    6 points
  30. An exciting finish with @roger2256 hitting the top spot with 9/1 Irish winner Woodstream Lad. This meant that long time leader @mick33 needed a winner in the last but his selection could only manage 4th. Congratulations to the winner and the runner up and also 3rd placed @calva decoy
    6 points
  31. I've done the prelim pass on computer and it's made a shortlist of 7 horses .....I can't do full pass until about Thurs Fri to narrow it further ..but it's 23 down to like 7 ...I'll be surprised if the winner isn't on this shortlist ... Ahoy senior Stolen silver Midnight river Mahler mission Monbeg genius Our power Sail away 🤔🤔
    6 points
  32. Only brief reasons for the tips today as not much time, but hopefully a profit to be made. Eastleigh v Boreham Wood Good win for the home side on Saturday and they hammered Wood in the FA Cup a few weeks ago. They probably want to make up for that performance which was shocking, but Eastleigh have been in very good form at home including the win over Altrincham on Saturday. Ebbsfleet v Maidenhead A game Maidenhead would usually lose, but Ebbsfleet have to be opposed at the moment as they look desperate and losing 4-0 to Oxford City at home is not good. Maidenhead won at Solihull on Saturday and seem to have hit peak form. Rochdale v Altrincham Rochdale deserved the win when I took them on against Aldershot on Saturday, but Altrincham are the better side for me and I am happy to back them to bounce back here. York v Oxford City The fact York played how they did on Saturday was why I didn't want to go mad on them. What was interesting was that the manager said he could see it coming based on how they trained on Friday. Oxford have been good in wining their last two and whilst they have only won once away from home, I think they have a chance to get something here given how York are playing at home right now. Alfreton v Chester Good home side against a poor away side here so I think there is a bit of value in the home teams price. Buxton v Hereford I wasn't originally going to put Hereford up as I worry about their away form, but Buxton are in poor form and have lots of injuries at the moment so will take a chance that Hereford have enough to get a win. Farnborough v Worthing Farnborough have yet to lose at home and have yet to win away so am happy to back them to beat a Worthing side who just struggle for consistency. Eastleigh 1pt @ 31/20 with Bet365 and Skybet (take up to 5/4) Maidenhead 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365 (take up to 7/4) Altrincham 1pt @ 9/5 with Paddy Power, Betfair, William Hill and Betfred (take up to 6/4) Oxford City 1pt @ 16/5 with Skybet and Coral (take up to 5/2) Alfreton 1pt @ 29/20 with Coral and Bet365 (take up to 6/5) Hereford 1pt @ 21/10 with pretty much everyone (take up to 7/4) Farnborough 1pt @ 6/5 with Skybet and Coral (take up to Evs)
    6 points
  33. 330 chelt Knickerbocker glory. 8.6 12/1 Sonigino. 8.5 16/1 Leau du sud. 8.2 Leau du sud could be dangerous here but there's good value Ew in the top 2 so I'll try 5pt Ew on both for a bit of Sunday action 😀
    6 points
  34. Wayfinder 2 20 Chlt/ 1/4oth of a pt ew 20/1 Brother Dave 3 14 New/ 140th of a pt ew 33/1 P/L + 173.70 Pts
    6 points
  35. Leading active trainers at Cheltenham Sorted by strike rate since the start of the 2018/19 season (minimum 25 runners) Gavin Cromwell 22.86% (8-35) John McConnell 19.61% (10-51) Emma Lavelle 15.91% (7-44) Henry de Bromhead 15.71% (22-140) Leading active jockeys at Cheltenham Sorted by strike rate since the start of the 2018/19 season (minimum 25 rides) Keith Donoghue 20.69% (6-29) Paul Townend 20.41% (20-98) Richard Patrick 18.18% (8-44) Rachael Blackmore 17.71% (17-96) Gina Andrews 17.24% (5-29)
    6 points
  36. @Bang on @MCLARKE @harry_rag @yossa6133 have made many of the points i was going to make apologies to them if i repeat some. Here's the thing, bookies wouldn't offer them if it wasn't a benefit to themselves. Secondly we must differentiate between Racing and football, lucky 15's and straight accas football accas i will leave to others i think there is a case where a fool has a 8-10 team acca. I will deal with Lucky 15's, first thing to say is i have covered this extensively in above said Fred. but basically if you are skint and the cash out is significant to you then there is a case to be made, this time last year (proofed on here) i was offered if i remember correctly £2,400 quid i had was already holding £1,200 with one leg to go which if it had won would have been £13,000+ It lost, i did not cash out so did i lose £1,200? No i won £1,200 from a £6 stake. Look at those maths that clearly favour the bookie, they would have saved £10,000+ ish had i cashed out and the last leg had won. Now suppose i had cashed out i would have been as happy as @LEE-GRAYS because the last leg lost but had it won and i had cashed out not only would i have been £10,000+ light i wouldn't have been able to sleep for months and believe me daft as it sounds it is not the money to me i bet for fun. Imagine cashing out a mortgage for a holiday. Now the main point is why have a lucky 15 bet that might produce a huge return in the first place if you don't give yourself a chance of getting that return? How it works is to give an example, if your first two legs win then you are offered (in most cases) a settlement of your first 2 winners and last 2 legs as non runners if your first 3 win you are offered the 4th leg as 1 non runner. The exception is quite rare and that is when lets say your last leg is 20/1 and it is backed down to say 7/2 the Cash out will increase in line with that legs chance. One more quirky deceptive thing i have noticed, the cash out offered does not take into account of the prices of the legs that have won (re-BOG) so lets say one of your horses goes out in the market the cash out will stay with the original price. In effect you really need to know how much you have already won before deciding whether to cash out. I can be more complex and give a secondary reason for considering a Cash out and it's this, suppose your first leg loses and your 2nd and third leg win, well it will no longer be a life changing amount unless they are huge odds so again depending on your financial situation it can be considered feasible. Lastly you have the option of partially cashing out but i don't even want to go through those explanations but be aware that it is an option.
    6 points
  37. I wouldn't cash out, if you even think about it .. then why place the bet in the first place ? In your example, you would be better off betting £5 win on each rather than an EW double. You also mention that a few are football accumulators, the dreaded one let me down in the pub. I have a few friends who have had a similar experience, this very weekend they cashed out with Hull only drawing, only for them to score a 92nd minute winner. The cash out was poor compensation IMO. My advice is this ... if it wasn't a benefit to the bookmakers ... they wouldn't offer it. The ONLY time I would contemplate a cash out, is if the amount being offered would make a significant difference to your life ( last leg of an acca with £5k+ riding on it etc). You can though go to the exchanges and lay your last selection to guarantee a decent return. I recently had £4k + going on to an even money chance so went to the exchange to lay a significant sum. The horse was beaten a SH and the acca went down, but the exchange profit was a reasonable compensation. That's my 2p worth.
    6 points
  38. Aldershot v Kidderminster I did have a look at Aldershot being a possible upset last week, but left it alone in the end so whilst I wasn't completely surprised that they did beat Swindon I certainly wasn't expecting them to score 7. Some of the defending left a lot to be desired though and Aldershot took the chances that came their way. Back to league action and I am surprised they aren't odds on for this. They are in the play-offs, have only lost once at home and are playing the side currently bottom of the table. Aldershot were a bit disappointing in their last league game against Dorking, but they have been in very good form otherwise and they should have too much for Kidderminster. Boston v Hereford I am slightly worried about Hereford's away from and that Boston's home form is much better than their away form, but Hereford are doing much better overall at the moment and I think a price of over 2/1 offers value. They gave it a good go against Gillingham in the FA Cup last week, especially in the 2nd half, and they did win their last away game at Chorley. Overall they have only lost once in their last 6 league games and that was at Alfreton who are 4th. Like I say Boston have some good results at home, but they did lost to Banbury, only beat Gloucester 1-0 and I watched the 1-1 draw against Scunthorpe and Scunthorpe put in a shocking performance that night. That leads me to think that if Hereford play well they will come out on top and are certainly the value play. Scunthorpe v Gloucester City City are terrible this season and I am pretty much resigned to the fact we will be relegated already. We've changed the manager and seen little improvement and I just don't see where the performances to keep us up are going to come from. What we don't need is a trip to a Scunthorpe side who have the best team in the divison and one that have really shown their dominance at home. Apart from the 3-0 defeat against Buxton (the replayed game and came at a time where they might have gone out of business) they have been superb. They put 3 past Southport, 4 past Darlington and Scarborough and 6 past Spennymoor and Bishops Stortford in their last 2 home games. I just don't see how we can keep them out and given we have only scored 13 goals I don't how we score either. Odds against on the -1 looks a huge price and really it should be another 3/4 goals at least. Eastbourne v Braintree On the face of it Braintree's away form doesn't look great given they have only won once, but the 3 losses on their travels have come at Taunton, Torquay and Yeovil which are all pretty tough assignments and they have got a draw at 2nd place Aveley. The loss at Yeovil is their only defeat in their last 10 league games and they are doing really well at the moment having put 4 past Havant and St Albans in their last two games. Eastbourne are having a shocking season given they invested a fair bit of money and went full time. It has been a bit of a failure and every chance they will be in a relegation battle all season. I'd make Braintree slight favourites here. Bradford Park Avenue v Matlock (Northern Premier) Really keen on Matlock here whose season has turned around on the signing of Jonathon Margetts and he scored all 4 goals as they beat Radcliffe 4-0 last week having scored both goals in their 2-0 win against Basford the Tuesday before. Bradford have not done well since being relegated and have only won 3 league games all season. They finally sacked the manager this week as well. I can't believe that Margetts won't add to his tally here. Folkestone v Billericay (Isthmian Premier) I do think Billericay will find it hard to catch Hornchurch who have looked really good all season, but they have got themselves up to 2nd place and are performing much better than they were. They have won 4 of their last 5 including beating Chatham 2-0 on Tuesday night. The head to a Folkestone side who have lost their last 3 games 3-0 (Kingstonian), 4-2 (Hornchurch) and 3-1 (Carshalton). Odds against looks a decent bet to me. Prices from Thursday 9pm Aldershot 3pts @ 5/4 with Bet365 (take up to 5/6) Hereford 1pt @ 11/5 with Skybet and Bet365 (take up to 7/4) Scunthorpe -1 3pts @ 21/20 with Skybet (take up to 4/5) Braintree 1pt @ 7/4 with William Hill and Betfred (take up to 11/8) Matlock 2pts @ 6/5 with Betfred, Skybet and Bet365 (take up to 5/6) Billericay 3pts @ 23/20 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 4/5)
    6 points
  39. Chris Day gave your fancy a write up in Sporting Life - One who loves heavy ground and is back down to a winnable mark is the Venetia Williams-trained eight-year-old, FRERO BANBOU, who paid the price for winning a valuable prize over the minimum trip at Lingfield in January 22 and could also have improvement in him over the longest trip he’s ever tried. November is traditionally Williams' time of year and he’s an each way price at 16/1 in a field where most horses seem averagely treated so he could be much shorter on Saturday morning.
    6 points
  40. Rated the sefton Fantastic lady. 9.0 13/2 Gesskill. 8.9 4/1 Presentandcounting 8.4 33/1 Percussion. 8.4 Sail away. 8.2 Nassalam. 8.0 Frero banbou. 8.0 Ground is most likely soft to heavy so that goes against presentand counting... percussion ...and frero banbou ....strengthening the top 2 who are proven .....5pt wins top 2
    6 points
  41. Darran

    Melbourne Cup

    Having put up the winner of The Everest, the Caulfield Cup and the Cox Plate in recent weeks I am hoping I can make it 4/4 in the biggest race of them all, the Melbourne Cup. Here is my look through the 23 runners which make up this year's field. Gold Trip - History isn't on his side he is aiming to be the first repeat winner since Makybe Diva and the first to carry 58.5kg since Think Big in 1975, but last year's winner is absolutely flying this prep and arguably is in even better form. The Turnbull win 3 back was top class, he didn't get much luck in running when 3rd in the Caulfield Cup and it was a similar story in the Cox Plate when 5th last time. People say he needs cut, but he has proven this prep he can more than handle a quick track so the ground doesn't worry me. Mark Zahra has picked Without A Fight over him, but James McDonald is pretty much the best super sub you can hope for. The one minus for me is his draw in 2. Last year he settled in 18th and flew home from a wider draw, but this year he is going to need luck in running from his inside gate. For me though that is the only negative and if he holds the form he's shown already this prep he has to be in the top 4. Alenquer - A former Royal Ascot winner and a Group 1 winner in Ireland, but he's been unplaced in 5 Aussie starts now and in what will be Damian Oliver's last Cup, he is going to have to pull off something special to win another one on the 6yo. Needs to pass a vet check on the morning of the race. Without A Fight - Given a very European style campaign with just 1 prep run leading into the Caulfield Cup, but it worked a treat as he came pretty much widest of all round the home bend to storm home and be really tough in a battling finish with his former stablemate West Wind Blows. He was just 13th in this last year, but the ground was too wet for him and we know he comes into this in peak form. Connections will probably be happy enough he is drawn in 16 as he should be able to settle in the latter half of the field and get clear air in the straight. The double hasn't been done in 22 years, but he has to have a strong chance. Breakup - Japanese horse whose best recent runs have come over 3000m and 3200m in Japan earlier in the year. Hadn't run since June going into the Caulfield Cup which was always likely to be too short a trip for him and he basically stayed in around 8th place the whole way. To me he ran like a horse who needed the run and he really ought to improve on that run especially up in trip. He also didn't get a lot of room twice in the straight and without that I think he would have finished closer. Wouldn't discount him at double figure odds. Vauban - Plenty of people think you may as well give him the Cup now as they are so certain of him winning. Willie Mullins has gone close to winning this race before and it seems this has been plan long in the making possibly before he even won the 2022 Triumph Hurdle. Bolted up at Royal Ascot beating Absurde by 7.5L and then won at Naas to qualify for this. I have said on Twitter that if he drew poorly then that wouldn't help and was joking about 24, but inside draws can be just as tricky although Ryan Moore can work wonders as he showed an Auguste Rodin on Saturday. He gets 7lbs from Gold Trip although I wouldn't be certain that would be enough. What I will say though is his owner thinks he could be a Cups horse next year over here and if he is then he ought to win this. The price has been too short in recent days, but he is just starting to drift out and he is a tempting bet again. Soulcombe - Was really impressive when winning the Queen Elizabeth on the final day of this carnival a year ago, but has only won once this year which came in a Listed Race at Caulfield over 1700m. He was a super 3rd in the Turnbull and does get a 3kg pull in the weights with Gold Trip for a 2.15L defeat that day. The worry is he can blow the start and he lost about 6L at the start in the Caulfield Cup. I thought he did very well though to come home 7th given that. The further trip and longer home straight here will help him if he does blow the start, but his draw of 4 isn't going to be a great help in that regards. Even so he has to be one of the leading candidates. Absurde - The Ebor winner under a great Frankie Dettori ride and whilst no horse has done the double it is usually a good form guide for this race. He was 2nd to Vauban at Royal Ascot, but he was really keen in the early stages and was held up of a fairly slow pace which the winner was able to dictate, so he certainly wasn't see to best effect that day. The yard clearly think Vauban is their main chance, but he is certainly one of the possible winners. Right You Are - Won the Mornington Cup in April and was a really strong 5th in the Caulfield Cup last time especially given he settled in around 5th just off a very strong pace. That was a personal best for me and came on the back of only finishing 11th in the Turnbull. He's never been further than 2400m and you wouldn't really say he's going to improve for it. Vow And Declare - The 2019 winner who has then finished 18th in 2020 and 10th last year. Despite that he still has more weight than he did when he won the race, but to be fair to him he comes into this in good form with a 2nd in the G1 Caulfield Stakes and in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup last time. Could improve on the 10th of last year, but surely isn't going to repeat 2019's success. Ashrun - Was 10th in the 2020 running and then didn't run again until September due to a tendon injury. Was OK in his first 2 runs back and then finished a good 2nd in the Geelong Cup. Every chance he will come on for that again, but that form isn't good enough to be winning this. Daqiansweet Junior - Stays well and won the Adelaide Cup and has been 3rd in a Sydney Cup, but has been unplaced in 9 starts since then and shouldn't be good enough. Okita Soushi - Another winner from this years Royal Ascot winning the Duke Of Edinburgh. Had a break after that and finished 3rd in the Irish St Leger Trial. He then came over to Australia and finished 12th in the Caulfield Cup. He will have to improve massively on that. Sheraz - Only managed 1 placing in 12 Australian starts which came in the Sydney Cup last year. Stays, but highly unlikely to be good enough. Lastotchka - Having her first start in Australia after winning the Prix Gladiateur at Longchamp a couple of months ago. I'm not sure that was a strong race and she might prefer a softer surface. A draw of 21 isn't ideal either. Magical Lagoon - Won the Irish Oaks last year, but has been pretty awful since going to Australia. 6th in the Geelong Cup was an improvement, but needs a hell of a lot more. Military Mission - Landed the Herbert Power at Caulfield last time although the last horse to win that and the Cup was Rogan Josh in 1999. Was a good effort though and he has also won the Newcastle Cup this prep. Has never been further than 2406m though and that might be an issue, but he has better claims than quite a few of these. Serpentine - The 2020 Derby winner, but he's only won once in Australia and that was a 4 horse race. Only beat 2 home in this last year, but he's actually been running the best he has in Australia this prep and was 3rd to Future History in the Bart Cummings last time. Even so he would be a surprise winner. Virtuous Circle - 2nd in the ATC Derby at Randwick in April, but has struggled for form since and was only 8th in the Geelong Cup last time. More Felons - People in the UK will know him as Scriptwriter as he has had a name change since going to Australia. Started off with Aiden O'Brien and then went hurdling for Milton Harris last jumps season and did well winning a Grade 2 at the November meeting at Cheltenham. He ended up finishing 5th in the G1 Juvenile Hurdle at the Grand National meeting. He then went back to the level and finished 7th behind Vauban at Royal Ascot and 8th in the Ebor behind Absurde. What he does get here though is a massive turn around in the weights which in theory gives him half a chance of reversing the form. Loomed large in the Geelong Cup on his first start for Waller and ended up 5th in a blanket finish. One of those at a bigger price who does have a chance, but he has drawn in 24 and that will be no help. Future History - Great to see Hollie Doyle pick up a ride and this ex-French horse has progressed well since going to Australia. Won the G3 Bart Cummings in good style when making all before a change of tactics last time in the Moonee Valley Cup where he was held up from a bad draw and stayed on well to finish 3rd. I'm guessing they will try and lead with him again here from 13 and given we don't know if he stays that might be tough. I can see him running well though. Interpretation - Had been behind Future History twice this prep including when just 9th in the Bart Cummings. Won a head bob in the Bendigo Cup last week, but that doesn't look good enough form for this. Kalapour - Running solidly this prep and won the Archer Stakes on Saturday to get into the race. Made all then when able to dictate the speed and dug deep to hold on. I can't see him being good enough True Marvel - Has won over 3800m so we know he stays and was placed in the Sydney Cup and Brisbane Cups last season, but unlikely to be good enough. Verdict - For me there are 7 horses who can win this year's Melbourne Cup and in racecard order they are Gold Trip, Without A Fight, Breakup, Vauban, Soulcombe, Absurde and More Felons. I'm going to have small e/w bets on More Felons and Breakup. More Felons could be well handicapped and I like the fact he's had a run in Australia going into this, although the draw is a negative. I thought Breakup's run at Caulfield was better than it first seemed and given the scope for improvement I want him onside as well. With bookies going 5 places and a couple going 6 I think that offers great value in backing Soulcombe and Gold Trip. Both have drifted out, but I think both have great chances of finishing in the top 6. Soulcombe might blow the start again, but the long Flemington straight will give him ample chance to get involved in the finish and Gold Trip is going so well I just can't see how he doesn't finish in the top 5. At the prices I will leave Absurde and Without A Fight alone. I'm a little surprised that Absurde is as strong in the market as he is because I get the feeling the Mullins camp all fancy the favourite. Having said that if he got the 1-2 I wouldn't be shocked. Without A Fight was my main tip for this last year, but he disappointed on the soft ground. Clearly the Caulfield Cup win was huge and that was a new PB, but his price is tight enough now. Finally after much thought I am going to back Vauban as well as a cover bet. On the Australian Bet365 prices he is now over 3/1 and given I would have him around 3/1 I have to bet him at that price, but I would not take anything under 3/1. NB Bet365 have two sets of prices an Australian book and a UK book. The Australian one only offers 3 places as that is the normal e/w terms over there and can be found in the Australian horse racing section on the site. Because it is only 3 places the prices are bigger (thus why Vauban is a bigger prices there). If you want the UK one you have to go to the ante-post section and go to where it says Australia & New Zealand NRNB and the 5 place market is there. Strong bets Gold Trip e/w @ 7/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred to 5 places or 6/1 with William Hill to 6 places Soulcombe e/w @ 9/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred to 5 places or 8/1 with William Hill to 6 places Cover bet Vauban @ 17/5 with Bet365 in their Australian market Small e/w plays Breakup @ 18/1 with Betfair to 5 places or 16/1 with William Hill to 6 places More Felons @ 33/1 with Betfair to 5 places or 22/1 with William Hill to 6 places
    6 points
  42. Age – 11 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 & 8Price – 4 of the last 12 winners were favourites, 5/12 winners were in the top 3 in the bettingWeight – 10 of the last 12 winners carried 11st 4lbs or lessLast Run – 6 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the Coral Gold Cup, 10/12 winners finished 3rd or higher on their last run, 10/12 winners ran within the last 57 daysPrevious Course Form – 5/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Newbury, 5/12 winners had at least 1 previous win at NewburyPrevious Distance Form – 11/12 winners had at least 4 previous runs over 24 furlongs or further, 10/12 had at least 1 previous wins over 24 furlongs or furtherPrevious Chase Form – 11/12 winners had at least 6 previous chase runs, 12/12 winners had at least 2 previous chase winsRating – 10/12 winners were rated 146 or higherGraded Wins – 5/12 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 raceSeason Form – 10/12 winners had at least 1 run that season, 5/12 winners had at least 1 win that season
    5 points
  43. Bullshitting ? indeed they are IMO i deal with trainers and people in racing daily and the majority would say ground/ going assessments are a joke ! 😐
    5 points
  44. 0.5 e/w 3.30 CH- HEY JONNY 50/1 bog 5places
    5 points
  45. Chambard for ew "sheckels"
    5 points
  46. Belgoprince 4 05 Chlt/ 1/40th of a pt ew 18/1
    5 points
  47. Congrats to @Johnrobertson Please PM me your PayPal details. You win the £250 1st prize. Commiserations for the 3 other players. More than welcome to continue in the Consolation. New LMS to kick off after the International break.
    5 points
  48. A) - 7.30 Wolv - All the kings men - 7/4 (bet365) ---------- B) - 2.25 Kemp - Deyran de Carjac - 10/3
    5 points
  49. From a mathematical point of view you should not cash out, the bookies only offer it as a way of enhancing their profits From a psychological point of view it could be a good idea due to loss aversion. The view is that losses hurt twice as much as profits give pleasure. Also it depends on your financial circumstances. If you have no money then making a guaranteed £100 is important, if you are a millionaire then it doesn't make much difference.
    5 points
  50. No Qualifiers today, but I have had a couple of bets. 2.15 Muss - Friary Rock - 13/2 EW (1/5th 3 places with Bet365) 2.50 Muss - Moo Moo's Milan - 14/1 EW (1/5th 4 places with Bet365) ..(16/1 Lads and Corals but only 3 places) Trainer Laura Morgan has a very good strike rate at Musselburgh (32%), and she has 3 runners at the track today (these are 2 of them). BUT, her CHASE strike rate rises to 50% with 7 winners from 14 Chase runners. These are her 2 Chase runners today. I have backed them both EW as IMO she is not quite back into full form, hopefully today is a turning point.
    5 points
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