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  1. 14 points
    Darran

    Non-League Predictions > August 10th

    Having struggled a little on the Nap front last season it was good to go 2/2 on that front with Eastbourne winning. It was also good to get the first big priced winner of the season thanks to Aldershot and Guiseley's thrashing of Bradford Park Avenue helped make it a profitable night. 3 of the Step 3 leagues get underway on Saturday to bring us up to 6 leagues and I have 8 bets across them. Previews to follow Bromley v Torquay It was a rude awakening for Torquay fans on Tuesday night as they were hammered 3-0 by Solihull. Gary Johnson called the Torquay performance inept and the worst he has seen since he joined the club. To be fair to the players though they were playing the team who finished 2nd last season and should be a play-off side this and that is a massive step-up from a very poor National League South. This will be another very tough game for them and whilst they will have got a kick up the arse from Gary, this is a good Bromley side who might for me look stronger than Torquay. They had a very comfortable win on Tuesday against Ebbsfleet and whilst this is harder they should be shorter than 6/4 to claim another 3 points. Notts County v Barnet Notts County got their first point of the season on Tuesday when drawing with 1-1 with Stockport. It was more proof though that they are struggling to come to terms with football at this level and that a team who signed 6 players 48 hours before the season started are struggling to gel. I wasn't certain of taking them on with Eastleigh or Stockport but I think Barnet are well worth backing. Barnet have 4 points from their first 2 games and have played well in both although the concern is both their goals have come from penalties. They need to take their chances, but I think they will certainly be capable of creating a few here and for me they should be no bigger than 2/1 and probably a bit shorter than that. Barnet for me are a step-up from the two opponents County have faced so far. Woking v Harrogate Woking played well in the first half against Aldershot on Tuesday, but they weren't so good in the 2nd half and Aldershot were able to take the derby day victory. I think Woking will struggle this season and I can't understand why Harrogate aren't clear favs for this game. They were involved in a great 2-2 draw with Solihull on day 1 and then were comfortable 3-0 winners at Barrow on Tuesday. Barrow is a tough place to go and it wouldn't be a big surprise if that was their heaviest defeat at home this season. Those two performances suggest Harrogate will be up their again this season and despite Woking's win at Dagenham I still think they will be in a relegation battle. Hopefully Harrogate can make their superior quality pay. Alfreton v Blyth Spartans This is a value play for me because Alfreton have been hammered in the betting from the opening prices and Blyth have drifted out to way too big a price. Blyth lost to Gloucester on the opening day of the season and I certainly don't think they will be a play-off contender as they were last season, but then Alfreton don't look like they will be anything special either. They have flattered to deceive for the last two seasons and my initial feeling is they will be no higher than mid-table. This game is currently priced up as if it is against title contenders and relegation fodder which isn't how I have seen it at all. Blyth have also had a week off as their game against Spennymoor was called off and that means they have 90 minutes less in their legs and extra training to get things right ahead of this game. Bradford Park Avenue v Kidderminster Just before I started to write the preview for this game it was announced that BPA had sacked their manager. We usually see the odd casualty during August, but for someone to be sacked with less than a week gone of the season is highly unusual. As I wrote in the preview for their game on Tuesday they had to be really bad to lose 5-0 to Curzon and then they went and lost 5-0 again to Guiseley. It's hard to know if they have done the right thing to sack the manager or not. I guess you could give him time to turn it around, but it would seem he has recruited poorly and its going to be hard when the fixtures come so fast in August for someone else to come in and change things quickly. I'm certainly happy to back Kidderminster here. Now Kiddie haven't exactly looked great themselves and I'm not sure I would want to be backing them at 11/8 to win away at anyone else in the league, but this is the right time to be playing BPA. Kiddie have the players to hurt them even if they look a little bit short of play-off contenders at the moment and they look a good bet to win this. Braintree v Wealdstone I saw Wealdstone in action on Tuesday night when they lost 1-0 to Dulwich. They will probably consider themselves unlucky to lose as they were very much on top when Dulwich scored the only goal of the game and the continued to see plenty of the ball. The problem was they didn't really test the keeper too much during the game despite some good build up play, although Dulwich looked really solid in defence and that was a big part in them keeping a clean sheet. They both look teams capable of being play-off contenders and both look better teams than they were last season. As I mentioned in my ante-post preview I don't think Braintree will do a great deal this season and they have lost their first two games although to be fair they were tough ones against Bath and Billericay. They actually played well against Braintree going down 3-2, but that was a local derby against the team everyone in the league will want to beat. I think they will suffer a bit of a comedown in this and their squad is very inexperienced this season. They also looked weak in defence and Wealdstone should be able to take full advantage. They are a big price and I make them the Nap's of the day. Weymouth v Chelmsford I was a bit surprised that Chelmsford lost to Concord on Tuesday, but it suggests that like last season they could have issues away from home. Weymouth have put in two really good performances in their first two games back at this level beating Maidstone and drawing at home to Bath. Those suggest they will be a force to be reckoned with in NLS this season and it is hard to understand why Marathon have got them bigger than 2/1. I would have them at around 5/4 myself and they have a real chance of winning this. Merstham v Hornchurch Just one bet at Step 3 for me this weekend and although I hope Hornchurch don't win the title I certainly can see them getting their campaign off to a winning start. Merstham lost their manager and most of their squad to Kingstonian over the summer and they really are a shadow of the side who made the play-offs last season. They look likely to be struggling at the wrong end of the table given the strength of their side and Hornchurch ought to be odds on really. Bromley 1pt @ 31/20 with BetVictor Barnet 1pt @ 33/10 with BetVictor Harrogate 2pts @ 17/10 with BetVictor and Betway Blyth Spartans 1pt @ 5/1 with Boylesports (19/4 with BetVictor, 9/2 with Betfred) Kidderminster 2pts @ 11/8 with BetVictor Wealdstone 2.5pts @ 17/10 with BetVictor Weymouth 1pt @ 41/20 with Marathon Hornchurch 2pts @ 11/8 with Marathon
  2. 12 points
    Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Hugo Dellien at 2.00 with William Hill While I do understand the reasons for Basilashvili being the underdog in this one, I don't really agree with them. Basilashvili is still the classier player of the two and he's the defending champion, so I think that he's going to be prepared for the event after taking a break after Wimbledon. Dellien is having an excellent season in terms of win and losses, but most of his successes came on the lower level and he's had some weak performances recently, so I'd have Nikoloz as the favorite here and I'm quite surprised that we're getting evens for him.
  3. 10 points
    Darran

    Non-League Predictions > August 6th

    Bit of a disappointing opening day of the season with only Dulwich winning although at least they were the Naps. Telford and Boston ought to have won as should the double, but that's the way it goes sometimes. There were some interesting results and I was kicking myself for not opposing Notts County who couldn't even muster a shot on target against Eastleigh. It seems to me they are a long way from having a side being competitive at the right end of the table and as much as I would love to oppose them on Tuesday night they host a Stockport side who looked pretty poor in the live game against Maidenhead so it's hard to want to back them after that even against Notts County. There are 7 teams I do like the look off though. Solihull Moors v Torquay As I wrote in my ante-post preview I thought that Torquay were, along with Notts County, the worst value to win the title. They won their first game back at this level when beating Boreham Wood 2-1 on Saturday, but they were up against 10 men for a lot of the game which would clearly made things easier for them. This game will be a much tougher test as they face last year's runners-up. Solihull got off to a solid start at the weekend drawing 2-2 with Harrogate in an exciting game which really should have been the live TV choice. They were really hard to beat at home last season and I fully expect it to be the same this time around. I think they should be closer to even money, to beat a team they should finish above come the end of the season, than they are so at 6/5 they look worth backing. Woking v Aldershot Both teams I tipped to go down won on Saturday although that still doesn't mean they won't be in a relegation scrap and I think the odds compliers have over reacted to Woking's win at Dagenham on Saturday. I just wonder if it was a good time to face Dagenham though who have had a big change in players and look like they might take a bit of time to gel. Granted Aldershot have had an even bigger turnover, but they also have a brand new manager which means it is a bit of a different story. They held their own against title favs Fylde on Saturday and that will give them a bit of confidence in this big local derby. I'd imagine both these sides will be in a relegation scrap and therefore the 3/1 on offer about the away side looks big as I wouldn't go any bigger than 2s myself. Yeovil v Eastleigh Eastleigh face the other relegated side after beating Notts County on Saturday. It doesn't sound like they played especially well and there is every chance they faced Notts County at the right time, but they could easily be facing Yeovil at the right time as well. Granted it as only a penalty that beat them on Saturday against Barnet. They did start off well, but manager Darren Sarll mentioned after the game that it was going to be a massive learning curve for a group of players who have been forced together late on. Eastleigh are a more settled side, albeit one who looks weaker on paper than last years, but their experience at this level could prove to be the deciding factor here as it did for them on Saturday. They look a big price at 12/5. Eastbourne v Tonbridge I think Eastbourne look the best bet of the night. They held out until injury time against Billericay and although disappointing to lose so late on I would imagine Lee Bradbury was happy enough with the performance. They should be more than capable of picking up the 3 points here as I am happy to continue to take on Tonbridge. Dulwich went down to 10 men early on, but were still able to take the lead and although Tonbridge ended up with their keeper being sent off and had an outfielder in goal, but Dulwich manager Gavin Rose decided to play it safe and just hold on for the 2-1 win rather than go for the 3rd goal. It worked nicely as although Tonbridge tried to find an equaliser Dulwich saw the game out. Eastbourne look capable of improving on their poor season last time around and look an a better side than Tonbridge who may well go straight back down. The home side look a fair price at 11/8. Dorking v Hemel Hempstead Hemel were very impressive on Saturday and arguably put in the most impressive performance in the division beating Hungerford 4-1. Sammy Moore has put together a decent side and although Dorking should go well this season they are missing some key players at the moment and that could prove key in a fixture against one of the leagues better sides. Dorking beat Slough thanks to a controversial injury time goal after the linesman put his flag up for offside only to put it down again and the Slough defence had stopped. Slough can consider themselves unfortunate to have lost that and Hemel will be even stronger opposition. Marathon are way overpriced on the away win for me at 93/50. Concord v Chelmsford I got Concord wrong on Saturday as they ended up with a very comfortable 3-0 victory over Oxford City, but I am taking them on again here against a Chelmsford side who also had a 3 goal win beating Hampton 4-1. I think my problem with going with Oxford on Saturday was that I was keen to take on Concord and I didn't think Oxford were going to be as bad as they were, but I clearly overrated the Oxford side. Chelmsford are certainly much better than Oxford and I am prepared to back them here to hopefully back up my view that Concord will not do a great deal this season. I would certainly have Chelmsford as favs here and not as big as Marathon's 17/10. Bradford Park Avenue v Guiseley Just the one bet in the National League North on Tuesday. I was tempted to back Hereford to beat Gloucester as I think they will in a game where there are likely to be more away fans than home fans, but I think the price is about right so am leaving it (whilst obviously hoping Gloucester can somehow manage a win). Instead I will back Guislely at just under 6/4 to beat their Yorkshire rivals. As much as I didn't expect BPA to do much this season I certainly would not have thought they would have lost 5-0 to Curzon Ashton. Now granted their could be a positive response to that drubbing, but if you are losing 5-0 to Curzon that suggests you aren't very good. Now I would have had Guiseley as another bottom 6 side ahead of Saturday, but they were impressive in beating Kings Lynn 3-0 and with a performance like that behind them they will be full of confidence going into this. If BPA are every bit as bad as that opening day defeat suggests they are then the away side have to be backed. Solihull 1pt @ 121/100 with Marathon Aldershot 1pt @ 3/1 with BetVictor Eastleigh 1pt @ 12/5 with BetVictor Eastbourne 2pts @ 11/8 with BetVictor Hemel Hempstead 1pt @ 93/50 with Marathon Chelmsford 1pt @ 17/10 with Marathon Guiseley 1pt @ 147/100 with Marathon
  4. 10 points
    Darran

    Non-League Predictions > August 3rd

    The first weekend of the season can be tricky for punters and it is wise to take things fairly carefully. On the other hand you are testing your view of how teams will get on throughout the season and their can be prices about teams that you think will do well that wouldn't exist later in the season. I have 6 bets on the opening day and although none of them are as lumpy as some of the prices I landed on the final day of last season it would be nice if it was just as successful! Hartlepool v Sutton Just the one bet in the National League on the first weekend. I was tempted by AFC Fylde away at Aldershot as it is the type of game they need to win if they are to be champions. The problem is it was just the type of game they failed to win last season and I would rather wait to see how they perform away from home before taking this sort of price about them. Wouldn't put anyone off backing Barnet at home to Yeovil, but they looked about the right price to me. I was desperate to oppose Notts County who look woefully under prepared going into the start of the season. The problem is I don't rate this Eastleigh squad much so I am going to sit it out. Halifax are the same as Notts County, but Ebbsfleet has be priced accordingly and I don't think there is any juice in the price. That leaves me with this match and if you have read my ante-post preview its probably no surprise that I am putting Hartlepool up to making a winning start at 11/8. They look capable of mounting a serious challenge for promotion this season having improved once Craig Hignett took over as manager last season. Now Paul Doswell has left Sutton it looks like they are in a period of transition and it might take a bit of time for them to get up and running and even then they only look capable of mid-table. Boston v Chester I think Chester are poor 2nd favs for the league. They might reach the play-offs, but I can't see them winning the league as their squad doesn't look strong enough. I know I don't pay a great deal of attention to pre-season friendlies and there is a chance that the players were taking it easy, but Chester were well beaten by FCUM on Tuesday night. One of their joint-managers had a right go at the performance after the game in an interview with the press and suggested that a win over Trafford on Saturday had papered over the cracks. It was a pretty scathing view of the team just a few days before the start of the season. It could be that the players respond to that and go and put in a performance in the first league game, but it might just be that the managers have recruited poorly. Also in 11 seasons in management they have only won their opening day fixture once and that was in 2010, they couldn't even manage it whilst they were at Salford. There has to be something in that and Boston, who look stronger than last season, could well be primed to take full advantage. It looks a pretty tough opening game and Boston will look a big price at 143/100. Kettering v AFC Telford Kettering have had a very messy summer. Their manager left in slightly mysterious circumstances and players left some claiming they hadn't been paid all the money they were promised. I think they look possible relegation candidates at this stage and they especially look worth taking on in the early part of the season. Telford's away form let them down last season and that is a slight concern, but they look to have a decent side again and they should be capable of picking up 3 points here. Oxford City v Concord Concord had a great season last time around and finished in the play-offs, but for some reason their chairman couldn't be bothered to get the ground up to National League standard so they couldn't compete in them. Like Kettering their manager Sammy Moore then left in mysterious circumstances and when he joined Hemel quite a few players left with him. They look nowhere near the side they were last season and I think they could be in for a relegation battle. City have lost their star striker to Boreham Wood and that will hurt them, but on paper they look a better side than Concord and I am happy to back them at 13/10. Tonbridge v Dulwich Dulwich look the best bet on the opening weekend. They have already been nibbled in the betting before I put them up and that doesn't surprise me at all. As I mentioned in my AP preview Gavin Rose looks to have built a good side this time around and one that can score goals which was a problem at times last season. Now their off the field issues have been sorted it looks like they are able to spend some cash which you would expect a club who can attract 3000 fans to have. Tonbridge came up through the play-offs, but it wouldn't be a big surprise if they went straight back down and I certainly think these two sides will be at opposite ends of the table come April. 13/8 looks a big price on an away win. Bath City v Braintree and Havant & Waterlooville v Welling Bath would have been a single if they had stayed odds against, but they have gone a shade of odds on so I am putting them in a double with Havant who also look a pretty solid home win. As I wrote in my AP preview Braintree look really weak going into the new season. Their budget has been slashed and they are relaying on players making the step up from leagues below. I think they won't be too far away from the relegation zone. Bath had a good season last time around and they look like being a play-off contender yet again. It's no surprise they are now odds on because they should be. Havant are one of my tips for the title and they really ought to get their season underway with 3 points. Welling look much worse than last season after finishing 3rd. Steve King has gone and after already cutting costs during last season they have done again. I think they will be lucky to finish in the top half this time around. With the double paying 2.3/1 with Marathon that looks a decent price Hartlepool 1pt @ 11/8 with BetVictor Boston 2pts @ 143/100 with Marathon AFC Telford 1pt @ 77/50 with Marathon Oxford City 1pt @ 13/10 with Betway and BetVictor Dulwich 3pts @ 13/8 with BetVictor Bath City/Havant & Waterlooville 2pts double @ 2.3/1 with Marathon
  5. 8 points
    A great day on Saturday with 5/8 selections winning including the 3rd winning Nap of the season as well as another big price winner with Barnet. Fixtures come thick and fast at this time of year and I have another 8 bets for Tuesday night. Eastleigh v Sutton Sutton are unbeaten in their first 3 games and although in theory a draw at home to Chorley wasn't great I think they will be happy enough with that given the weather conditions. Coming off the back of wins at Hartlepool and a draw at Barnet I am sure their new manager will be very happy with how things have started. I think they can carry on their unbeaten start as Eastleigh have been unimpressive so far. Yes they beat Notts County on day 1, but that wasn't hard and they haven't been great in losses at Yeovil or Barrow. I think Eastleigh have been priced up on last seasons play-off semi-finalists rather than the current side which is a fair bit weaker. I would make Sutton favs for this and not 5/2 shots. Ebbsfleet v Yeovil In theory backing Ebbsfleet who have lost all their games so far looks risky especially as they were bad in their first two games, but they were much improved on Saturday against Fylde. Fylde only won via a penalty early on and Ebbsfleet certainly pushed them close to getting something from the game. If they can carry that on into Tuesday night they can beat a Yeovil side who still aren't really convincing me. They got another point on Saturday against Stockport, but Stockport had a lot of chances and should really have won. I think 17/10 is just on the right side of value. Harrogate v Notts County It seems odd to think Harrogate should be odds on to beat Notts County, but they should be odds on to beat Notts County. The main reason for this is because I think Harrogate will be able to take full advantage of the dodgy Notts County defence. I know Barnet won, but they didn't really exploit County's issue at defending crosses apart from when they scored the equalizer from a corner and boy did that show up how bad Notts County are at defending balls into the box. I'm surprised after that that Barnet didn't test them more, but Harrogate certainly should. The Woking manager made a point of saying that had to defend a lot of crosses into the box on Saturday against Harrogate and I can't see County keeping them out as Woking did. Harrogate were unlucky to lose as the Woking goal was a huge deflection and they will be pleased with the way they have started the season. County look a million miles away from being title contenders at the moment and it is no wonder they are as big as 22/1 for the title already, I struggle to see them turning around their fortunes here. Brackley v Kings Lynn Brackley don't look as strong as they have in the last couple of seasons and having beaten Alfreton on the opening day they have lost their next two albeit one was against title favs York on Saturday. Kings Lynn would have been disappointed about their opening day effort when being well beaten by Guiseley, but they have won their next two against Kettering and Hereford and looked decent in dong so. I don't think there is much between these two sides and certainly not the difference the bookies have them at so the value is backing the away side. Guiseley v Spennymoor Spennymoor are the Naps on Tuesday night as I really fancy them to beat Guiseley. Guiseley had two good wins to start the season, but certainly beating Bradford 5-0 wasn't that hard given how bad they are. They were brought back down to earth with a large bump on Saturday when losing 3-0 at Southport and this should be an even tougher test for them. Spennymoor have only played one game so far as their pitch isn't ready yet so they have had a break since their opening day draw at Hereford. That has to be an advantage at this time of season as Guiseley have 3 quick games in their legs and Spennymoor come into this the fresher. That is certainly part of what makes it a good bet, but I think Spennymoor are potential title contenders and if that is to be right they have to be winning games like this. Hereford v AFC Telford I initially thought Hereford would do well and they played well against Spennymoor in that 2-2 draw mentioned above, but they haven't been great in their two away games since. They beat a 9 man Gloucester last week although were lucky to do so as even with 10 men Gloucester looked the better side and then as mentioned above they were poor at Kings Lynn. It could be they will be better at home, but at this stage we can't be making assumptions like that and I think there is value in taking them on. Granted I am worried about Telford's away form as it was poor last season and they lost at Kettering on day 1, but again it is too early to say it will be an issue this season. They have been solid in their two home games beating Kidderminster and drawing against Gateshead. There is a lot of pressure on Hereford to do well this season and that might just mean their fans get frustrated if Telford can score early or keep it at 0-0. I wouldn't be having Telford at bigger than 2/1. Kettering v Chester I opposed Kettering on day 1 and they ended up beating Telford, but they have been much more like how I thought they would be in losing their next two games and they were really bad on Saturday when losing 3-0 to Darlington. I'm still not sure Chester will do as well as their ante-post odds suggest, but they are still unbeaten drawing against Boston and Altrincham before beating Farsely more comfortably than the 2-1 final score suggests. I still think Kettering will struggle and Chester should have too much for them and they look a good bet. Kidderminster v Gloucester City Obviously because I backed them I hoped Kidderminster would win on Saturday, but I also hoped they would win as I was eyeing this game up as a potential bet. The home side have not looked that great in their first two games and I certainly would not be using a 3-0 win against Bradford Park Avenue as proof that they have turned a corner. It is clear that BPA have been miles off the pace so far this season and have been the worst team in the league by someway. Gloucester have had a solid enough start to life back in the North having beaten Blyth, then that loss to Hereford before drawing with Altrincham on Saturday. Granted Gloucester weren't great, but then ever since they have been at Evesham for their home games they have struggled to get victories and it has been their away form that has been their strong point. It would not surprise me if that is the case again this season and since Mike Cook came in as manager he has made City very hard to beat and the signs are that will be the case again this season. I would have Gloucester at half the price they are and the 4/1 makes plenty of appeal Sutton 1pt @ 5/2 with Marathon Ebbsfleet 1pt @ 17/10 with Bet365 Harrogate 2pts @ 23/20 with BetVictor and Betway Kings Lynn 1pt @ 17/5 with Marathon Spennymoor 3pts @ 11/8 with Marathon AFC Telford 1pt @ 52/25 with Marathon Chester 2pts @ 67/50 with Marathon Gloucester City 1pt @ 4/1 with Betfred and BetVictor
  6. 7 points
    Tuesday night was a big disappointment with most of the teams I put up putting in poor performances. Thankfully my own team stopped it from being a total wipeout as Gloucester came from 2 down to beat Kidderminster 3-2. It was also satisfying because all the Asian money was for the home side and it is always nice to get one over them. Onto this weekend I have 6 bets across the weekend. Dagenham & Redbridge v Harrogate Hopefully this will be 3rd time lucky with Harrogate. It is slightly concerning that they haven't scored in either game I have tipped them up in especially as they created enough chances to have done so and they missed a penalty at 0-0 against Notts County on Tuesday night. They did then go down to 10 men as County converted their own penalty. They did though score 5 goals in their first two games so they do have goals in them and hopefully they can score some here. Peter Taylor was not happy after their 3-0 defeat to Boreham Wood on Tuesday and he was almost admitting that maybe he hasn't recruited as well as he could have done. As I touched on in my ante-post preview it seemed like they would have some money to spend over the summer, but although they had more than the summer before it also didn't look like that had a huge amount. That for me has left them lacking and they have pretty young squad. They have lost 3 of their first 4 games and Taylor would be my favourite for the first manager to be sacked in the league. I would have Harrogate as favourites here so Marathon's 15/8 makes plenty of appeal. Notts County v Wrexham I considered Dover at home to Torquay, but thought the price was probably about right in the end. Barnet were on the shortlist as well but again they look about the right price to beat Chesterfield, a team who have had a very poor start. In the end the only other bet I am having in the National League takes place on Sunday and yet again I am opposing Notts County. As mentioned above they had a bit of fortune on their side to get their first win at this level on Tuesday and they are far from the finished article. Wrexham looked much better on Tuesday crucially keeping a clean sheet and scoring the winner whilst being down to 10 men. I think Wrexham are just the sort of side County will struggle to beat this season especially at this stage of the campaign and the 21/10 about an away win is too big. Blyth Spartans v Hereford I wasn't expecting Hereford to sack their manager when I tipped up AFC Telford to beat them on Tuesday, but it certainly led to a much improved performance as they beat them 1-0. They are going up to Blyth on Saturday who have looked seriously lacking so far in their 3 games. I did put them up at Alfreton last week as they looked over priced, but they were well beaten by Alfreton in the end and not surprisingly struggled against York on Tuesday. If Hereford build on Tuesday night's performance then they ought to be winning this and 6/4 with Marathon looks acceptable. Chester v Gloucester City I am putting my own club up again to win on Saturday. As I mentioned in Tuesday's preview Gloucester's away form has been vastly superior to their home form since they have been playing in Evesham. This record has improved even more since Mike Cook took over as manager as the club have won 9 out of 10 away games since he started his reign with the only defeat at Dartford. That's some stat and as mentioned above they did really well to come back from 2 down on Tuesday. Chester have yet to lose, but they have drawn 3 of their opening 4 games and were very lucky to get a point at Kettering on Tuesday where they under-performed again. The managers weren't happy after the game and as I have mentioned before I don't think they are as strong as their ante-post price suggested they were. I think at 7/2 with BetVictor the away side are a sporting play once again to make it 10 out of 11 away wins under Cook. Curzon Ashton v Kidderminster I have to take Kiddy on again on Saturday. You shouldn't really be letting 2 goal leads slip and their defending left a lot to be desired especially for City's 2nd goal. As I mentioned in Tuesday's preview the win at Bradford Park Avenue was not likely to be a sign of better things to come and they have conceded 7 goals in their other 3 games. Curzon have made a very good start to the season and although they benefitted from playing BPA first day of the season they got solid draws at Southport and Leamington before a really good win at home to Darlington on Tuesday. They clearly have goals in them and given Kiddy's defence they will more than fancy themselves to get on the scoresheet and that might well be enough. I would certainly have them no bigger than 5/4 to win this so 159/100 looks a good price. Taunton Town v Chesham United I'm shocked by Taunton's start to the season. Having pushed Weymouth all the way last term they were fancied to do well again this term and that might still be the case, but it's been a really poor start to their season. Losing 3-0 to well fancied Gosport probably wasn't a total disaster, but losing 4-0 on Wednesday night to a Yate side who had lost 4-1 at home on the opening day certainly was. I'm sure they are going to bounce back at some point, but this is a going to be a really tough test for them. Chesham were one of my ante-post bets for the league and they have had a very good start to the season. They beat ante-post favourites Salisbury 2-0 on Saturday (who beat Gosport themselves on Tuesday night) and then won 3-1 on Tuesday against Beaconsfield. I'm not surprised they hit the ground running and they are worth backing to make it 3/3 against a Taunton side who seem to have a hangover from last season's efforts at the moment. Harrogate 2pts @ 15/8 with Marathon Wrexham 1pt @ 21/10 with Marathon Hereford 1pt @ 6/4 with Marathon Gloucester 1pt @ 7/2 with BetVictor Curzon Ashton 1pt @ 159/100 with Marathon Chesham 1pt @ 161/100 with Marathon
  7. 7 points
    LeMale

    Naps - Sunday July 21st

    1620 C - Miss Jabeam @ 25-1 ew BetVictor
  8. 6 points
    sammydubs

    Non-League Predictions > August 10th

    2 matches to look at now as I think the price will go on both. Sadly both against my teams... Merstham vs Hornchurch (Isthmian Premier Division) Merstham won this fixture 3-0 last season but a lot has changed since then - Merstham have a completely new squad and manager and having watched them in pre season it’s going to take time for them to gel, if at all. Hornchurch haven’t had it all their way in pre season but have pitched themselves against stronger opposition and have done OK. They held Dagenham & Redbridge with some of Hornchurch key players missing, conceding a last min. goal. Favs to win the league with some strong additions to their squad, I would have expected odds on for Hornchurch, especially as I know that with Merstham home advantage is often not an advantage at all!! Hornchurch to win 6/5 (Bet365) Bromley vs Torquay (National League) Quick and easy tip...from reports of Tuesday night, Bromley were really good, Torquay were really poor. I know Darran doesn’t fancy Torquay this season and that’s good enough for me to side with Bromley who I read were simply outstanding at times on Tuesday night. Bromley to win 6/4 (Bet365) Wouldn’t put anyone off the double as well!
  9. 6 points
    Madison Keys to beat Garbiñe Muguruza at 1.67 with 888 Muguruza is in a very bad form. No matches played since Wimbledon where she lost her first match there against Beatriz Haddad Maia and broke with her coach after that. Keys has played 2 matches on hard this season. The first one was in Washington where she lost against Baptiste and the second one was in Toronto where she lost against Vekic in an incredible 3 set match (6-3, 6-7, 6-7). I watched that match and both players played incredibly well. Keys was superb on serve (15 aces 1 DF) conceding the first BP in the sixth game of the second set! Yulia Putintseva to beat Jelena Ostapenko at 1.81 with 888 Putintseva only played 1 match on hard this season and it was a lost in straight sets against Wozniacki but I liked how she played the beginning of the first set. Ostapenko has played 4 matches since Wimbledon (2 wins and 2 loses). To be honest im not impressed with her 2 wins. I watched her win in straight sets against Garcia and that match was absolutely horrible. Both players played awful (the face of Caroline’s father was like “what the f**k is my daughter doing?). After that match she won against Pavlyuchenkova in a 3 set match and then was destroyed by Bouzkova (6-2, 6-2). Putintseva has the style of game that can trouble a lot Ostapenko. Alison Riske to beat Maria Sharapova at 2.10 with 888 I see that Riske is still being underrated by the bookies despite her great state of form. She reached QF in Wimbledon losing in a tight match against Serena. After that she won Carol Zhao, Lepchenko and Sakkari in Toronto and finally lost against Karolina Pliskova in a 3 set match. The last time Sharapova won a match was in Mallorca against Kuzmova in June. She’s in a 3 losing streak: Kerber in Mallorca (6-2, 6-3), Parmentier in Wimbledon (6-4, 6-7, 0-5) and Kontaveit in Toronto (6-4, 3-6, 4-6). Riske is in better form and will play in home. Maria Sakkari to beat Camila Giorgi at 1.72 with 888 This year has been horrible for Giorgi despite her recent Final in Washington. Im a little surprised for these odds considering the great form of Sakkari. Sakkari played in San José beating there Alexandrova, Mayo Hibi and Svitolina and losing in the Semifinals against the winner of the tournament: Saisai Zheng. Giorgi is one of the most aggressive players of the WTA and I expect that she will dominate Sakkari in some parts of the match but I see Sakkari too solid and I think that finally she will prevail.
  10. 6 points
    Darran

    Non-League Predictions > August 10th

    A really good day and great that I could take the knowledge from having watched Wealdstone on Tuesday to make money today. 3/3 winning naps and another big price winner today as well. No rest for the players and no rest for the tipsters at this time of year so back again for the mid week action.
  11. 6 points
    Darran

    Non-League Ante-Post 2019/20

    It seems to come around quicker every year, but it is again that time where I try and predict the winners of 7 leagues from the National League at Step 1 to the 4 leagues now sponsored by BetVictor at Step 3. Last season was just under 20pts profit following on from the previous two seasons which were over 20pts. Only one season in the 11 seasons I have done online has seen me make a loss on the ante-post bets. I feel it right to put a disclaimer at the start. Those of you who follow me on Twitter will probably have seen it hasn't exactly been a great summer wise for me after complications with my new-born son and for obvious reasons I haven't felt quite on top of things as I would be in an ideal summer. Therefore I have to thank former member of this forum Shipsupstreets or Paul as he is also known for providing me with his intensive notes so I could get up to speed. I obviously did have some teams in mind, but certainly Step 3 was one I really needed more research on and he has saved me a lot of time. With that out of the way lets move on to the preview itself. National League Two things to note when it comes to the National League is that favourites have a pretty rotten record and that teams coming down from League 2 really struggle to go back up at the first time of asking. Cheltenham won the title and Bristol Rovers went up via the play-offs, but that is it. Notts County have to defy both those stats although I just don't understand why they are market leaders. They are a team who have had well documented off the field issues and are lucky to not have been wound up, but fortunately for fans new buyers have been found. The club have been unable to sign any players due to a transfer embargo although they have had players playing in friendlies in the hope of signing when things are sorted out. The problem is though how on earth can any wage budget been set so how does Neil Ardley know what he has got to play with so who knows how many he will be able to sign. On the pitch they have done pretty well in pre-season friendlies which did surprise me I must admit, but I stopped using them as a pointer to the season ahead long ago. They look really poor favourites for me and I just can't see them winning the title as I write this. After that it is hard to be confident about how they will go with so many unknowns, but it would be a hell of an achievement for them to win the title and they help make the market. To be fair Notts County aren't favourites with every bookie (9/1 with Betway and BetVictor who have them as 3rd in the betting) with Chesterfield and AFC Fylde heading some bookies lists although both are also as big as 9/1. Starting with Chesterfield and I can certainly see them going much closer to getting back to the Football League than they did last season. You may remember they became the draw specialists under Marten Allen which became an easy way to make money for a good few weeks. They did improve under John Sheridan and they look to have a solid squad ahead of the season. What you have to ask yourself though is they are basically attempting to do what Leyton Orient did last season and are they actually as good as them? In my view they have a lesser manager and not as strong a squad and for that reason they look play-off hopefuls rather than possible title winners. AFC Fylde were one of my bets for the title last season, but they were really frustrating. They hardly lost a game, but they continually drew games away from home that they needed to win if they were going to win the title. Dave Challinor needs to change that this season. What he also needs to change is the reliance on Danny Rowe. They have been very lucky that he hasn't had a mid-long term injury as without his goals they would struggle. They play-off final and FA Trophy Final highlighted that perfectly for me. To be fair to Challinor he has certainly tried to address that issue so it might not be as big an issue as it has been the last two seasons. The other big issue is how play-off final losers always seem to suffer from a hangover. I thought Tranmere would get away with it two seasons ago and it was their slow start which stopped them from winning the title as they were the best team in the league by a mile that season (something highlighted by the fact they went up again last season whereas Macclesfield were nearly relegated). The interesting thing with Fylde though is that winning the FA Trophy might just help them get over that hangover, because they ended the season winning a trophy rather than losing a play-off final. I will be kicking myself a bit if they did win the title, but in what is a wide open league this year I want to be backing teams at double figures and as much as I think they will be in the play-offs at least I think the juice has gone from the price. Having said I want to be backing a team at a double figure price Wrexham just creep into being 10/1 and they are my idea of the champions this season. I don't need to be telling Wrexham fans that they have been in this division for way too long and they really have had a rollercoaster of emotions trying to get out of the league including bumping in Fleetwood when they probably had their best ever season at this level. What they have really lacked in the last two seasons is goals and to a lesser fact having a manager poached from them during the season. Hopefully this season they will score plenty of goals and Bryan Hughes won't be tempted away from the Racecourse Ground. The fact their leading scorer had six last season tells a story, but Hughes has gone all out to rectify that and I really think he has. What they have been very good at is keeping the goals out at the other end of pitch and their defence has basically stayed intact which is very good news. They clearly haven't been far away from title winners the last two seasons and they now look to have the potential to be champions with the squad they have and they are my main bet. Torquay are next in the betting and I just don't get it. I know Paul has them as possible play-off contenders and they might be capable of sneaking into 7th especially as they have a superb manager in Gary Johnson who got a Cheltenham team who weren't the best squad in the league to win the title 3 years ago. Maybe he is the reason why they are so short, but I would be amazed if they won the title. Given my own side have been in the National League South the last two seasons I have watched a lot of it and the standard has been shocking especially last season. Havant and Braintree went up two seasons ago and both came straight back down last season which tells you all you need to know. Now I certainly don't think Torquay will be going down and they were certainly the best team in the division over the last two years. For Johnson to take them from where they were when he took over to winning the league in a canter was impressive stuff, but the fact the league was so bad really helped with that. Johnson hasn't added too much to that squad, but for me they are top half/outside play-off hopefuls and no more than that. Harrogate are next in and they had a surprisingly good first ever season at this level reaching the play-offs. They do actually look stronger than last time around and I do think they will be in and around the play-offs again, but they really faded in the 2nd half of the season and I have always had my doubts about Simon Weaver as a manager which for me will stop them from being possible title winners. We then come to Barnet. I was confident of them having a good season last year with them getting John Still in as manager and him then building a really promising squad. Still left at Christmas as things hadn't quite gone to plan and Darren Currie took over. What was especially frustrating was their FA Cup run showed they had serious potential in that squad last season and they were superb against Brentford in one of the best games I have seen in a long time. They also went on a decent run towards the back end of the season again showing what might have been. If Currie can get them to be consistent then they could be in for a very good season and I am tempted to go in again, but ultimately I just wonder if they might need another season before being true title candidates so I am passing at this stage. Can Solihull go one better than last season? In a word no. Fair play to Tim Flowers as although I certainly thought they shouldn't have been relegations favourites, I didn't think they would be capable of finishing 2nd. When they signed Paul McCallum from Eastleigh I thought it was a real sign of intent, but then nothing else really happened as far as really strong signings went so to me they look weaker than last season. Possible play-off contenders again, but hard to see them making that step up to winning the title. Peter Taylor's Dagenham & Redbridge are next in the betting and they certainly look a more promising prospect than at this stage last season when they had no money and looked real relegation candidates. A takeover meant money could be spent and they did enough to comfortably survive. I had them as a possible team to back at the end of last season given money was to be spent, but it then looks like they haven't actually got that much too spend as I am a bit underwhelmed by the signings. I am also doubtful about Peter Taylor being the right man for the job so I am happy to look elsewhere. Stockport finally got themselves out of the National League last season after getting the better of Chorley in a case of the slow starters (they went out to at least 25/1 for the title having been favs) beating the fast starters. They still aren't fully full time and that is always going to be a hindrance in this league. Top half maybe but hard to see anymore than that. Yeovil are also back at this level for the first time in even longer although of course coming in the other direction. Like Notts County they weren't in great shape, but their takeover happened in mid-June which has helped them. I always like a manager to have non-league experience and Darren Sarll doesn't have that. They look solid enough but I think it will be a year of mid-table obscurity for them. That's every team at 20/1 or shorter mentioned and I have two at bigger prices worth backing. First up is Hartlepool who look a massive price at 33/1. They have suffered badly with picking the wrong manager in their first two seasons at this level, but Craig Hignett looks the right man for the job and he certainly improved them when he took over last term. Based on that and the squad he has I think they should be around half that price and I expect them to have a much better season than their last two. I am also having a small investment in Bromley. One of the smaller teams in the league tend to be surprise promotion candidates and it could well be Bromley this year. They just missed out on the play-offs two years ago when a FA Trophy run got in the way a bit and then they went backwards last season finishing 14 points off the play-offs. I have however been really impressed with their signings over the summer and they look a club on the up having just opened up their brand new stand. They look to be building for life as a possible Football League club and it wouldn't be the biggest surprise if they were that in a years time. They certainly make more appeal at 25/1 than a few teams shorter than them in the betting. Some people might fancy Dover, but I think Hessenthaler needs another season to completely change them around although they maybe sniffing around the play-offs. McCallum choosing Solihull over Eastleigh spoke volumes for me and I find it hard to see them reaching the play-offs again. Gary Hill did a wonder job when he took over at Ebbsfleet last season given the off the pitch issues. They won't be getting promotion, but they should go better than their outsider tags. I can also see Boreham Wood having a better season. They really struggled last term after losing the play-off final to Tranmere last May and they look stronger this time around. Bet365 have a handicap market and I think Hartlepool getting 18 points and Bromley getting 15 points are worth a small bet e/w at 18/1. I love getting involved with the relegation market and there looks come cracking value again this year. Aldershot are odds on after being reprieved thanks to Gateshead and they will more than likely be in for another season of struggle, but make no appeal at the price. Alan Devonshire continues to defy the odds at Maidenhead and I wouldn't want to back against him doing the same again this season. I mention above that Boreham Wood should improve and I'm surprised to see Dover so short as well. Chorley could struggle, but I think they are capable of getting the right side of the line. We have the bizarre scenario of Notts County not being listed with Paddy's and Betfair and only 5/2 with BetVictor. In my view they will either go bust or be capable of surviving so I certainly wont be backing them. Another team with issues Ebbsfleet are the same price, but like Maidenhead the manager is more than capable of keeping them up. The two teams I like are Woking and Halifax. As I mention above the National League South was very low on quality last season and the bet on Braintree to come straight back down always looked like being a winner last term. Woking could well do exactly the same as them having been relegated and then winning the play-offs at the first time of asking. Granted they finished 2nd to Braintree's 7th, but I don't think there was a great deal of difference between the teams in the play-offs last season. They didn't really push Torquay close as they were only as close for so long because of Torquay's poor start before Johnson came in as manager. They don't look to have a strong side and I will be shocked if they don't struggle. They should be much shorter than 5/2 to go down. The other team I am backing is Halifax at 2/1. Jamie Fullarton resigned as manager a couple of weeks ago in very mysterious circumstances. That suggests something might not be right at the club and it is hardly ideal for your manager to leave so close to the season starting. With August being such a busy month the new manager Pete Wild who is not only going to have missed out on a pre-season, but is going to have little time in between matches to work on things and get new players in. Granted that will still give them plenty of times to sort things around, but they have a weak squad and things might not be right at the club. Also Pete Wild's knowledge of Non-League football is unlikely to be strong and he is very inexperienced. This is going to be a very tough first full time managerial job Finally I usually leave the top goalscorer market alone as it is always tricky and has seen some surprise winners, but if Danny Rowe stays fit it is almost impossible to not see him in the top 4 at the end of the season. If he was ever going to leave Fylde it would have been over the summer and given he hasn't (they don't exactly need the money) he will be there until April. Fylde will be up there and he will be scoring 20+ goals if he stays fit. Not only are BetVictor top price at 6/1, but they are also going 4 places which looks an e/w steal to me. Bet365's 11/2 first 3 is also more than acceptable. NB Notts County take over confirmed on Friday 26th July. National League South I am writing this on Thursday evening and it is probably a good thing I am as otherwise I would have had to rewrite the preview as big news came out which has changed my view point on the league a bit. I have been very keen on Havant & Waterlooville all summer. Paul Doswell was a good appointment as manager back in May and it is clear from the signings he has made that the club want to be back in the National League at the first time of asking. Given Torquay and Woking managed that last season it is very easy to see them following suit as their squad looks a cut above all bar one team in the division. Doswell has taking some Sutton players with him and I would say they look a stronger side than they did last season. I still think there is some juice in the price at 9/2. They were going to be one of my biggest ante-post bets and Billericay were just going to be savers, but all that changed when Matt Rhead was announced on Thursday evening. That is a huge signing at this level and although he isn't a prolific scorer, they have Jake Robinson for that, he will help create plenty of goals and he will be able to boss so many defences in this league. He isn't the only good signing either with the likes of Ronnie Henry also joining. Now I obviously have to mention the owner and as he calls himself joint-manager Glenn Tamplin. I really wish he wasn't anywhere near the dugout as I think he is a hindrance there having witnessed it for myself last season. That was in October before the bizarre actions off the pitch. The Non-League Paper ran a story saying they money had run out and they were up for sale and Jake Robinson left amongst others. I never really believed the story though as they still had a good squad although in the end they couldn't recover from a bad spell and even getting Robinson back wasn't enough to see them in the play-offs. I put them up as my strongest bet last season as I couldn't see them out of the 3 and obviously there is a concern that Tamplin could mess things up again, but they have the best squad in the division in what is still a weak league, Havant aside and I honestly can't see anyone else other than the above two teams winning it so I am having the same amount on both teams. Maidstone are next in the betting, but they don't excite me and I am not sure John Still is the right man for the job. No doubt Chelmsford will be up there again as they nearly always are. One year they will gain promotion, but they are going to have to attempt it via the play-offs for me. Sammy Moore left Concord in mysterious circumstances, but ended up at Hemel and has taken Concords best players with him. Concord finished 7th last season and Hemel should be play-off contenders. Bath look solid enough again and should be in and around the play-offs. Welling lost out in the play-off final, but Steve King has left and the budget cut so I can't see them finishing anywhere near the 3rd place King got them to last season. Braintree have got no chance and quotes of 12-14/1 is ludicrous. They have slashed the wage budget and signed a load of young players from leagues below. They will be nearer the relegation zone than the play-offs. Dartford blew a play-off place with a woeful end to the season, but they will be going for one again this term. I can see Eastbourne going better than their big odds suggest as they seem to be giving new manager Lee Bradbury money to invest. I am going to throw in a 3rd small e/w bet to the Havant and Billericay bets and that is my local team Dulwich Hamlet. I actually think Dulwich would have pipped Billericay to the Ryman Premier title two seasons ago had Dulwich not had to move grounds during the season. They were allowed back home half way through the season and were regularly getting crowds in the high 2000's on their return. I went to one game in January and didn't get into the ground until 30 minutes in because of the queues to get in. I am fully expecting them to be the best supported team in the division and with the off the field issues looking better they clearly have money to spend based on the players they have been signing. Gavin Rose is a superb manager and he got his eye in last season and has said he is wanting a play-off place this time around. He has signed well and although on paper they aren't as strong as Havant or Billericay I think they will be capable of pushing them close and at 20/1 they offer each/way value. National League North I have made a right mess of this division the last couple of seasons. Choosing York over Salford two years ago and then getting nowhere near with my 3 picks last season. Hopefully I can do better this time around and having initially thought York were poor favourites I am now tipping them to win the title at 5/1. Steve Watson came in during last season and steadied the ship, but he has made some impressive signings and Steve McNulty is a huge one in defence. I don't think the league looks quite as strong as it has in the last couple of seasons and they look more than capable of making that step-up from their first two disappointing seasons at this level. The main dangers for me are Spennymoor and they look a very fair price at 10/1 to go along side York in the portfolio. They would have been in the play-offs two seasons ago, but for having to play a huge number of games in the last couple of months. Then last season they lost in the play-off final to Chorley in a penalty shoot-out. The squad looks strong again and they really ought to be challenging for the title. Chester are 2nd in the betting, but I am just not sure about them this season. Johnson and Morley had an OK first season in charge, but they seem to be talking down their chances a bit and I'm not sure the squad is strong enough to be going for the title. It could be that the managers need another season to get things right. Altrincham look pretty solid again and they should be in the play-off mix. Brackley might drop back a bit as they look weaker than their last couple of seasons. Hereford have strengthened well and Marc Richards will be hoping they will be in the play-off hunt otherwise he will be out a job. Kidderminster had a poor season last time around and I don't really see it getting much better for them this time either. I backed both Boston and Southport last season and I was tempted by both again as Boston look to be better and Southport showed glimpses of how good they could be last season. They are still full time and I think with another summer behind him Liam Watson has strengthened again. I think at 20/1 they are worth a small e/w bet. Darlington also were half tempting as Alun Armstrong did a superb job at Blyth and I think he will get Darlington in the play-off hunt this time around. BetVictor Northern Premier League The only step 3 league I didn't get the winner off last season as South Shields' dreadful early away form stopped them from beating Farsley for the title and then they failed in the play-offs. They are the team to beat for sure and the signing of Jason Gilchrest was very eye-catching. The problem is with BetVictor being first up and also heavily promoting (understandably) their prices it has meant some of their big prices have long gone and it has meant that the other two bookies, Hills and 365, who have priced up the Step 3 leagues have had their card marked. South Shields are priced up at 7/4 and as much as I think they will win it I can't put them up as a single bet at that price. I do suggest sticking them in any multiple bets you do which is what I will be doing. Instead I will be putting up 3 e/w against them looking to get at least some e/w money back. Warrington have been strong the last 2 seasons in this division making the play-offs both times and Paul Carden again looks like he has built a squad that look set to challenge for the top spot. 12/1 is a big price about them. Ashton look like they have an increased budget this season and have attracted some good players from the league above and at 12/1 they look worth backing as well. The final team is Gainsborough. I thought they disappointed a bit last season, but they look to have built a decent squad and at 16/1 they look overpriced. BetVictor Southern Premier League Central BetVictor made a massive rick when putting Tamworth in at 16/1 and no I wasn't in a position to take advantage at the time. Still I think they are just about value at 4/1 with Hills and Bet365. They did pretty well in the 2nd half of last season and they have made some really impressive signings over the summer and look to have the best squad in the division. With Kettering and Kings Lynn gone this league looks weak and Tamworth look by far the most likely winners. Nuneaton nearly went bust last season, but have had investment and have signed well. They should be play-off contenders, but last season was so bad I just wonder if winning the title is beyond them and they look a bit short in the betting. Stourbridge have a new manager this season in the first time in a long time. They tried to keep with Kettering last year, but were always going to come up short. They should go well again though. Royston and Peterborough Sports warrant mentions as being possible play-off clubs as well. I am going to back a couple of others though. Now this is one bet that really has been led by Paul as I wouldn't be putting them up without him, but he fancies Bromsgrove Sporting and he has sold me on them as well. They were promoted last season and look capable of going up again this term. 16/1 is on the big side. The other team is Rushall Olympic. I put them up last year and they were a bit disappointing, but were much improved in the 2nd half of the season. I like Liam McDonald as a manger and they have a 3G pitch this term and Liam has built his side around that fact. They could pick up plenty of points at home and at 20/1 they are worth a small bet e/w. BetVictor Southern Premier League South I think this could be the most competitive section with some strong looking teams going for the title. The main bet for me are Weston-Super-Mare who are looking to bounce straight back up. They were woeful last season and deserved to go down, but they have got Scott Bartlett in as manager which I think is a good move and he has signed really impressively. I actually think they have a stronger squad than last year and would be capable of doing OK in the National League South. 10/1 looks a big price to me. Taunton nearly pipped Weymouth to the title and it is no surprise they are in single figures. They should be a play-off team again, but they don't really look like they have progressed as a squad and they might pay for that. Gosport were woeful last year, but suddenly some money seems to have been found as they have signed pretty well. They look rather short to me in the betting though. Hayes & Yeading walked to the title last season and although they have lost some players, they still look strong and should go well as should Poole. I haven't mentioned the favourites Salisbury yet and they are the 2nd team I am going to back at 5/1. They had a good first season back at this level and they look capable of progressing past Taunton who have finished above them the last two seasons. The other bet has been that Paul has pointed me in the direction off and that is Chesham. Had a season very much of two halves last time around, but the 2nd half was good. I know I say I don't pay too much attention to pre-season friendlies, but something about one of their games caught my eye. They thrashed Hampton & Richmond a couple of weeks ago and the Hampton Twitter feed mentioned Chesham were playing the game at the sort of intensity you would expect from a league game. That bodes well for the season ahead and at BetVictor's 16/1 they are worth a small e/w bet. BetVictor Isthmian Premier Division The scene of the biggest ante-post winner I have ever had as Dorking won in a canter at 33/1. I also put up Margate, Kingstonian and Enfield and they are the same 3 teams I am going to put up again this year. Margate were very average until Jay Saunders came in as manager and they improved massively. They went straight to the top of my teams to back for the following season until he then left. A few weeks later however he was back and that is huge. He has already won this league and really should still be Maidstone manager and don't forget last summer Macclesfield tried to get him. He has signed well and I would have them as favourites so 10/1 is a big price. Kingstonian had a bizarre season last time around. They were terrible, then really good climbing to 2nd and then only got 4 points in 2019 just missing out on being relegated. They have got Merstham manager Hayden Bird in and after he got them to a play-off place last season he has taking 10 of the team with him. That should be to their advantage and they look to have a squad capable of pushing for the title. Enfield also threatened to play a part in the play-offs at least, but disappointed in the end to finish mid-table. Andy Leese has kept the best of the squad though and looks to have added well to it. They really ought to be capable of being in the play-offs at the very least. Hornchurch (they have dropped the AFC now) have been backed into market leaders. They were favourites going into last season as well and looked poor ones at that. It proved to be the case as they were miles off the pace from the start. Mark Stimson came in and improved things a bit to be fair. They seem to have a bit of cash and made some decent signings, but quite why they are as short as 7/2 baffles me as I would have them in double figures myself. Outside of that Bognor, Folkestone, Carshalton and Lewes should be capable of being in the play-off hunt. Wrexham 1.5pts e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365 Hartlepool 0.75pts e/w @ 33/1 with Bet365 Bromley 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 with Bet365, William Hill, Marathon and Betway Hartlepool 0.5pts e/w on the handicap @ 18/1with Bet365 Bromley 0.5pts e/w on the handicap @ 18/1 with Bet365 Woking to go down 2pts @ 5/2 with BetVictor, Paddy Power and Betfair Halifax to go down 1pt @ 2/1 with BetVictor Danny Rowe 1.5pts e/w to be top goalscorer @ 6/1 with BetVictor (4 places) Havant & Waterlooville 2.5pts @ 9/2 with Bet365 Billericay 2.5pts @ 5/1 with Bet365 Dulwich Hamlet 0.5pts e/w @ 20/1 with Bet365 York 2pts @ 5/1 with Bet365 Spennymoor 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365 Southport 0.5pts e/w @ 20/1 with Bet 365 Warrington 1pt e/w @ 12/1 with Bet365 Ashton 0.75pts e/w @ 12/1 with Bet365, William Hill and BetVictor Gainsborough 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 with Bet365 and William Hill Tamworth 2pts @ 4/1 with Bet365 and William Hill Bromsgrove 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 with BetVictor Rushall Olympic 0.5pts e/w @ 20/1 with Bet365 and BetVictor Weston-Super-Mare 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365 Salisbury 1pt @ 5/1 with Bet365 Chesham 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 with BetVictor Margate 1pts e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365 Kingstonian 0.5pts e/w @ 12/1 with BetVictor Enfield 0.5pts e/w @ 20/1 with Bet365 Total points - 41 NB price on Rowe now gone with BetVictor but still 11/2 with Bet365
  12. 6 points
    Darran

    Racing Chat - Tuesday July 30th

     Been waiting for Buck Dancing to run again after his very profitable win for us at Southwell last time. He beat For Jim who duly bolted up on his next start at Perth so proof that you had two very well handicapped horses as nothing got near them at Southwell. He is back over fences tomorrow and even off a 10lbs higher mark I still think he is well handicapped. As I said prior to the Southwell race I think the handicapper has underrated the Stratford run behind Earth Leader and Buck Dancing looks more like a 120 horse. Interestingly connections have stepped him up to a class 3 here and the fact he is running against a horse who finished 4th in the Summer Plate (El Terremoto) shows what a different level we are dealing with. Still he gets a lot of weight from him and El Terremoto isn't proven at this trip. Old Salt won at Cartmel on the same day as the Summer Plate and looks like he will stay this far, but I thought that race fell apart with the ground seemingly against a few. Powerful Symbol is likely to make the running and although well beaten by Ascokastar in the end at Worcester that was his first run for a while and so could come on for that. With Bells Of Ainsworth not having run since last April I think Buck Dancing has a decent chance of going in again and 7/2 is a fair price to land the 7.25, with Powerful Symbol the main danger.
  13. 5 points
    Too soon to mention that I'm a Hearts fan?
  14. 5 points
    Maria Sakkari (+1.5 sets) to beat Ashleigh Barty at 1.90 with 888 Based on how unconvincing Barty was today, Sakkari should have every chance tomorrow. She's now dealt with two very strong players in a row, so she's clearly ready and should have no fear whatsoever.
  15. 5 points
    internetmails

    Naps - Thursday Aug 15th

    Good Luck Charm @ 25/1 Lingfield 17:10 - ladb
  16. 5 points
    mickyftm32

    Naps - Thursday Aug 15th

    Jaime Sommers 8.20 Tramore 20/1 Bet365 = EW
  17. 5 points
    adamross

    Naps - Wednesday Aug 14th

    4.20 Salisbury. 1 pt win Blistering Bob 40/1 Will Hill
  18. 5 points
    darko08

    Tennis Tips - August 12 - August 18

    Adrian Mannarino to beat Mikhail Kukushkin at 1.62 with 888 Kukushkin is here as a LL. He won his first match of the qualy against the absolutely out of form Jack Sock but he needed 3 sets. After that he lost in a 3 set match against Rublev. Mannarino has fully convinced me in his first match here, winning against Garín in straight sets (6-4, 6-1). Just 1 week ago Mannarino won against Kukushkin in straight sets (6-4, 6-4) in Toronto. Jan-Lennard Struff to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas at 2.50 with 888 Nothing much to say in this one. I think Struff is a little bit underrated here. Struff convinced me with his victory in the first round against the always dangerous Karlovic (7-5, 7-6) while this will be the first match here for Tsitsipas who lost in the first round in Toronto against Hurkacz. Guido Pella to beat (+2.5 Games) to beat David Goffin at 1.95 with 888 Pella is in a very good form while Goffin is still far from his best form. In his first match here Goffin won against Fritz in a 3 set match (6-4, 4-6, 6-4) and Pella won against Ruud in straight sets (7-5, 7-6). Just 1 week ago Pella won against Goffin in straight sets in Toronto (6-4, 7-6). I know that im overbetting but the most importing thing is being in profit and I feel confident so let’s go (and like always said, anybody is forced to follow my bets, just the ones you like). I have to say that I saw Medvedev very exhausted in the 2nd set of his match against Edmund (even he almost lost that) so I was thinking on betting against the Russian but I have no confidence on Paire so if Daniil goes on probably I will bet against him in the next rounds. The other bet I had on my mind is Kecmanovic because Zverev is in a very bad form but I was not expecting a 1.60 for the german.. so finally I will not do. Like I told you, tomorrow morning i leave and i will be out for a week so good luck with your bets!
  19. 5 points
    bluemal

    Naps - Wednesday Aug 14th

    Worcester 6:00 Dariya - 10/1 WH e/w thanks Dariya - from Charlie Longsdon yard the 4yo has been placed in a hurdle race from five NH starts since coming over from France in January 2019 where she had six runs for C Laffon-Parias yard she ran flat races from 1m to 1m2f and found a win and two 2nd place finishes , Charlie gave her three runs right away NH and then gave her a break of 83 days and a mark of 100 but that first race she fell at last when lying in 4th place and 7 lengths behind leader in Hcp Hurdle , She was given 18 days break to build stamina and hurdling skills and that seem to help as she ran at Cartmel 2m1f novice hcp hurdle and finished 6th beaten 18.5 lengths was up with leaders before weakening going to last and one pace running to line , The yard released more work getting her stamina up and have waited 83 days to bring her out today at Worcester. She drops in grade plus cheekpieces on for first time and usual tongue strap also down 7lbs from that first hcp mark with Aidan Coleman in saddle
  20. 5 points
    bymatrix

    Naps - Tuesday Aug 13th

    3.15 Ffos Las Crime of Passion ( win only ) 20/1 Unibet
  21. 5 points
    Rainbow

    Naps - Tuesday Aug 13th

    3.45 Ffos Las TIGERSKIN 1pt win 11/1 William Hill BOG
  22. 5 points
    Saddlesore

    Naps - Wed Aug 7th

    Pontefract 3.50 DAWN BREAKING 11/1 bet365 bog
  23. 5 points
    bluemal

    Naps - Wed Aug 7th

    Pontefract 5:50 Mr Orange - 9/1 betfair win thanksMr Orange a easy pick for me today the colour Orange - from Paul Midgley yard the 6yo is a C&D winner and has won eight races at 6f on ground varying from good to firm to good to soft also had ten place finishes , He come back here after a 19tn days break after running here off 6f GS winning by 0.5 lengths that was his 1st win this season after five other attempts with Graham Lee in saddle off 71 mark the handicapper added 4lbs and could well win again as the previous winning mark was 78 mark and Graham Lee keeping the ride
  24. 5 points
    Jan-Lennard Struff to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at 2.57 with MarathonBet I'm not fully behind Tsonga again yet, think he's still got a way to go before he's back to his best. He's winning the H2H but I don't think they've faced much before on hard. Short points are likely so its whether Struff is hitting it clean and whose serving better. Maybe should look at taking the short priced handicap instead.
  25. 5 points
    btugero

    Naps - Monday Aug 5th

    2.50 Cork Here For The Craic @ 25/1 Bet365
  26. 5 points
    BillyHills

    Goodwood Comp - Leaderboard

    Day 1 **Just to clarify the NR rule; No replacements are allowed once the first race has started. Reserves can be posted anytime up until 1.50pm each day. Admin would be a nightmare with people keep editing posts. Bluemal takes the honours on Day 1with winners at 25/1 and 16/1
  27. 5 points
    CzechPunter

    Tennis Tips - July 22 - July 28

    NIkoloz Basilashvili to beat Andrey Rublev at 1.92 with 1xBet Take everything above 1.70. No further explanation needed.
  28. 5 points
    Its pretty boring to read your value radar posts without any kind of facts, arguments and information
  29. 5 points
    adamross

    Naps - Thursday July 18th

    8.55 Leopardstown 1 pt win With a Start 20/1 Bet365
  30. 4 points
    Huddersfield vs Fulham The Championship action begins on Friday night in a 7:45pm kick-off at the John Smith's Stadium when relegated pair Huddersfield and Fulham clash. Despite being in the Premier League last season it already appears that both of these teams are developing contrasting expectations this season. The home side are simply hoping for consolidation whilst the away team have got their eye on an immediate return to the top flight. Huddersfield fans are in disarray right now. If you take the time to visit their forums or look around on social media there are a lot of voices of discontent. Fortunately, there are also sensible ones who know the season is only two games old. Jan Siewert is already under fire for his poor win ratio but this is a Terriers side that has found losing to be a habit. It is now just 7 points gained from their last 27 matches in league competition. A 2-1 loss to Derby and then 1-1 draw with QPR has hardly improved morale. How can one man at the helm solve that? It's a tall order for Siewert. Fulham were criticised last season for signing too many new faces in too short a time. It saw them drop straight back down to the Championship after their promotion the previous season. Scott Parker has been kept on as manager and good things are coming out of the Cottagers camp. Losing Ryan Sessegnon was expected but still a disappointment. Holding on to Aleksandar Mitrovic is a golden move. Adding Cardiff's want-away striker Bobby Reid could also be a stroke of genius. The other additions of Josh Onomah, Anthony Knockaert, Harry Arter, and Ivan Cavaleiro are also wise moves. The 1-0 loss away to Barnsley was underwhelming on the opening weekend but the 2-0 win over Blackburn last week was a lot more assured. The head-to-head record doesn't make for great reading for Huddersfield. They have only won 1 of their last 13 league meetings with Fulham. That win did come last season in the Premier League. On their last visit to Huddersfield at this level, Fulham came away with a 4-1 win back in 2017. The Terriers have also scored just six goals from open play in their last 17 league games. It's hard to see where the creativity is going to come from and where the goals will come from for the home side. I have to back an away win here. It might only get worse for Huddersfield this season. I hope not because they're a club I have a massive soft spot for. Fulham to Win @ 2.33 with Marathonbet Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.90 with Bet365 @waynecoyne, @sajtion, @arvee, @canaries91, @Mindfulness, @betcatalog, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @CloughandTaylor, @Tiffy, @Gidds, @chris50, @PokerWolf1, @teddybear3011, @skyblues88, @allyhibs, @Icongene, @KikoCy, @willie82, @Neubs, @Papa Lazarou, @kulikTS, @Valkovets, @Pipoca, @padman, @Marek76, @silver fox, @neilovan, @HastGill1, @jazzman02, @andypaps28, @Kenton Schweppes, @rangers234, @newjack, @Kane91, @yossa6133, @The Sexless Innkeeper, @Xcout, @branskie, @Wanderer89, @Hitch, @four-leaf, @trevor8, @OppoArchitizerLady, @Power90, @THEODORE-007, @KeyserSoze1, and @the bastardian, what bets are you guys looking at in the Championship this week?
  31. 4 points
    Alex Bird

    Naps - Friday Aug 16th

    2.45 Wolverhampton--Dream House 7/1 @ Bet365
  32. 4 points
    LeMale

    Naps - Thursday Aug 15th

    1855 Y - Purgatory @ 12-1 ew BetVic
  33. 4 points
    Craig bluenose

    Naps - Wednesday Aug 14th

    Kempton 8.10 Delilah Park 18/1 bet365 ew
  34. 4 points
    corky

    Naps - Monday Aug 12th

    1730 windsor 1pt win wotadoll 9/1 bet365
  35. 4 points
    daisychain

    Naps - Sunday Aug 11th

    Tipperary 5.15 Duchess Ravenwaves 8/1 William Hill
  36. 4 points
    Partick v Dundee Utd A little bit of value on the away win here I think. Talk of turmoil behind the scenes at Partick and a less than impressive display on the opening day last week. Convincing win last week by Utd with goal machine Lawrence Shankland starting the season on fire. Dundee United @ 2.35 - 1 pt.
  37. 4 points
    Craig bluenose

    Naps - Friday Aug 9th

    Newmarket 7.10 Kelly's Dino 7/1 bet365 win
  38. 4 points
    Saddlesore

    Naps - Friday Aug 9th

    Haydock 7.20 ROAD RAGE 8/1 BET365BOG IF N/R Haydock 5.05 I'LL BE GOOD 16/1 paddypowerbog
  39. 4 points
    Mark birchall

    Naps - Friday Aug 9th

    Contrebasse 750 Haydock 8/1 paddy power
  40. 4 points
    Snert

    Naps - Wed Aug 7th

    Pontefract 4.50 Move in Time 5/1 betvictor
  41. 4 points
    BARNSLEYCHOP

    Naps - Wed Aug 7th

    5.50 Ponty Mr Orange @ 9/1 Paddy's
  42. 4 points
    BARNSLEYCHOP

    Naps - Tuesday Aug 6th

    5.10 Cat International Man @ 10/1 Lad
  43. 4 points
    Focus71

    Naps - Friday Aug 2nd

    Goodwood 1:50 - Billesdon Brook 14/1 ew Bet365
  44. 4 points
    bluemal

    Naps - Tuesday July 30th

    Goodwood 16:45 - 20/1 bet365 e/w thanks Green Power - although a bluenose I 've went for a mugs double here with Green Power and Celtic play tonight so this horse from John Gallagher yard the 4yo has been successful twice at 6f on good and soft ground from 19 runs to date , This season he's only had the five runs and only found a 3rd place in 2nd race this season at Newmarket 6f GF in April since then poor runs , His last run was 36 days ago at Windsor 6f Gd when 5th of 9 runners beaten 2.5 lengths Dwelt at start made ground and made effort inside final furlong when hampered and to late to recover he had young 3lb claimer in saddle that day but experienced P J McDonald is in saddle today
  45. 4 points
    CzechPunter

    Tennis Tips - July 22 - July 28

    Hi and welcome to PL @Frenchloose! Please always post the bookie you're betting with. Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Alexander Zverev at 3.20 with Bet365 No explanation needed.
  46. 4 points
    vvararu

    Tennis Tips - July 22 - July 28

    Today's parlay @1.90 Unibet ATP - SINGLES: Gstaad (Switzerland), clay - 1/8-finals Moroni M. - Sousa J. Sousa @1.50 Unibet Sousa clay 2019 - 8/19. Moroni clay 2019 - 18/32. Even if Moroni has better statistics for 2019, he played mostly in Challengers and against players out of 100ATP ranking. Sousa, on the other side, played in ATP tournaments against much better players from inside of 100 ATP. According to my expectations, it won't be an easy win for Sousa, but he will take it, being a more qualitative player overall. ATP - SINGLES: Hamburg (Germany), clay Delbonis F. - Zverev A. Zverev @1.27 Unibet I expect an easy win (probably 2:0) for Zverev because of the next reasons: more qualitative player according to achievements and ranking plays at home won Jarry who is a clay court player, so seems motivated Delbonis should be tired, having played 10 matches in last 15 days.
  47. 4 points
  48. 4 points
    Torque

    Tennis Tips - July 22 - July 28

    Anyone thinking of backing Dimitrov anytime soon should probably think again. I've just watched most of his straight-sets loss to Kevin King, who's ranked at number 405, and it's got to be up there with one of the worst performances I've ever seen. The Bulgarian was a break up twice in the first set but lost it 7-5, then was a double break up in the second and leading 3-0 before losing it 6-4. From 3-0 in the second set he never held his serve again and would have lost the set 6-3 if it hadn't been for King failing to serve it out. Some of Dimitrov's numbers were astonishing. He won less than 1 in 4 points behind his second serve, served 8 double faults and conceded 23 break points - I'm not sure I've ever seen so high a number in a 3 set ATP match. All the way through it looked as though he couldn't really be bothered whether he won or lost. King didn't even play well himself - his first serve percentage was below 50, he fired down 9 double faults and he wasn't much better than Dimitrov on second serve. If that wasn't a performance that deserves a fine for a lack of effort then I don't know what is.
  49. 4 points
    CzechPunter

    Tennis Tips - July 22 - July 28

    Nothing involving Klizan is a banker, but yeah .
  50. 4 points
    sirspread

    Naps - Sunday July 21st

    Firsteen 405 redcar 10/1 bet365
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