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  1. It seems crazy to think that a whole year has gone since our beloved admin BillyHills aka Graham Sarson tragically passed away. Graham is still remembered very fondly here. Even now we still hear positive things about him either through personal memories members have shared or members expressing the influence he had on their own lives or this forum itself. On a personal note, I know that Punters Lounge isn't the same without Graham but I think he'd be proud of the legacy he has left. 12 months may have passed but Graham still remains in our hearts and the influence he had on the place you see now is still very much clear. We thought it was only appropriate that we posted some words up one year on so that people can take time to remember Graham and so that his wife Suzy and his family know that we are all still thinking of them during this difficult time. BillyHills may no longer be with us but he is still very much in our memories and in our thoughts. ❤️
    21 points
  2. What a lovely post to see. Graham would be proud to know he is remembered. He loved Punters Lounge passionately, and would want everything to carry on and move forward. There is no better legacy than leaving behind work that is built on and taken forward by others for the future. Thank you all for your support and kindness, it is invaluable.
    18 points
  3. Proud to win such great and well run competition and thanks Mclarke for the time you put into this👍
    10 points
  4. We’re getting towards the end of the flat season now and Saturday’s racing very much has an end of season feel. The ground is drying but good at Newmarket and similarly drying but softer at York. Here’s my thoughts on the 7 ITV races :- Newmarket 1.45 The 10F Zetland Stakes is a Group 3 contest for two year olds and has attracted a field of nine this year. Aidan O’Brien runs Bluegrass - a winner of A Curragh maiden in August and although stepping up in grade here shouldn’t be totally dismissed. His son Donnacha saddles Unconquerable who defied his 33/1 odds when finishing 3rd in the Royal Lodge over a mile a fortnight ago and should appreciate the step up in trip. He too has a chance but both may struggle to beat the Godolphin first string Hafit who cost a mere 2.1 million as a yearling. A winner on his debut on the July course he stepped up on that run when chasing home a well thought of Kevin Ryan trained colt at Haydock a month ago. He’ll appreciate the step up to 10F today and the reports are that he went clear of his stable mate and rival today Goldspur in a gallop earlier this week. William Buick has chosen him here and he has a big chance. HAFIT 3 points win @ 2/1 Bet365 York 2.02 The 6F Rockingham Stakes is a listed race for two year olds run over 6F and has quite an open looks about it this year. Officially the best in are George Boughey’s Hellomydarlin and William Haggas’s Canonized. Both have had plenty of racing this season and it may pay to look beyond the pair and find something that may be more progressive. That one maybe Richard Hannon’s Witch Hunter who was unlucky not take the scalp of the 101 rated Ribhi at Salisbury last time when he was denied a clear run inside the final furlong. A reproduction of that run would put him in back in contention with the two aforementioned 100 rated horses and he maybe the value bet small each way. WITCH HUNTER 1 point each way @ 5/1 1/5th 1234 William Hill Newmarket 2.20 Charlie Appleby could be in for a big day with his juveniles at Newmarket today and his Coroebus will be hard to beat in this Group 3 Emirates Autumn Stakes run over a mile. He was matched for plenty at 1.01 when scooting clear with a couple to run in the Royal Lodge a fortnight ago over course and distance but was reeled in late on by Royal Patronage who got up in the final stride. He’ll no doubt be ridden with a bit more restraint by William Buick today but remains an exciting prospect and is the most likings winner here. Aidan O’Brien can never be dismissed in these races and he saddles three here with the pick being United Nations, a Naas maiden winner who is the pick of Ryan Moore. A lively outsider who is held in high esteem and worked well apparently in the week is the Frankie Dettori ridden Dirtyoldtown who I’m told won’t disgrace himself but this should be going to Coroebus. COROEBUS 3 points win @ 4/5 William Hills York 2.37 11 go to post for this 10F class 2 handicap with the likely favourite Bay Bridge trained by Sir Michael Stoute coming here on the back of a 147 day break and a 15lb rise in the weights. He looks worth taking on despite his connections. Second in is the John and Thady Gosden trained Faisal who’s latest form behind Cambridgeshire runner up Anmaat looks decent form now. The problem with him is he’s only raced on fast or artificial surfaces and there’s little soft ground form in his bloodline as well. I’m interested in the Roger Fell trained Cockalorum who’s disappointing effort at Ayr last time can be put down to the fast ground and the fact that this habitual front runner wasn’t able to lead. He had previously been a model of consistency hitting the frame in decent handicaps at Goodwood and twice here in the John Smiths Cup and Skybet Handicap off of the same mark as today’s. I’ll be backing him each way. COCKALORUM 1 point each way @ 14/1 1/5th 1234 William Hill Newmarket 2.55 This years Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes has attracted a field of 8 with another Charlie Appleby/William Buick favourite in Native Trail who will be hard to beat and could easily be the last leg of a winning Godolphin treble in the three Group two year old races today. He looked special when shooting 3 1/2L clear of his field headed by the previously unbeaten Point Lonsdale in the Group 1 National Stakes at the Curragh last month and with conditions to suit should confirm himself as the best two year old colt around by winning this. Ger Lyons sends over his Kodiac colt Straight Answer who is unbeaten in two starts and has to be respected although this is a big step up from listed company to Group 1 whilst Roger Varian saddles Bayside Bay who impressed when beating Reach For The Moon in the Group 2 Champagne Stakes last time at Doncaster and appeals as the biggest danger. I can’t resist a small each way play though on the Hugo Palmer trained Dubawi Legend who was so impressive on his debut at Doncaster and although disappointing subsequently in the Acomb was found to be wrong after that run and at a big price I will back him small each way though the favourite as stated earlier will be tough to beat. DUBAWI LEGEND 1/2 point each way @ 16/1 1/5 123 Paddy Power York 3.15 A maximum field of 22 go to post for this 6F sprint handicap which as one could imagine at this time of year is wide open. Gulliver has won the last two renewals and if stall 21 doesn’t hinder his chances should be thereabouts whilst York special Copper Knight has obvious claims along with Mondammej who’s form ties in together. I like Jedd O’Keefe’s Air Raid at a big price here. It can’t be soft enough for him so a shower or two wouldn’t go amiss to be honest but he’s fallen back onto his last winning mark and has had wind surgery since we last saw him. I think he’s worth chancing at a big price. AIR RAID 1 point each way @ 33/1 1/5th 123456 Paddy Power Newmarket 3.35 A maximum turnout of 34 go to post for this famous handicap The Cesarewitch which is famous for starting in one county and finishing in another. Willie Mullins has won the last three renewals and saddles five including last year’s winner Great White Shark who has to race here off of a 10lb higher mark and doesn’t come into the race in the same form as last year. Likely favourite is M C Muldoon who was an unlucky loser of the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting and although 4lb higher stays well and has the assistance of Ryan Moore. He should be on anyone’s short list, as should the Nicky Henderson trained Buzz. He’s a very interesting runner who hasn’t been seen on the flat since September 2019 when trained by Hughie Morrison. He’s had a highly successful national Hunt career since with Henderson and has steadily risen through the ranks to warrant being called a serious Champion Hurdle contender with an official mark of 155. He has been away to Newbury for a racecourse gallop and Henderson has done well in this race before. He looks a very well handicapped horse and if he stays (he actually only ran up to 1m 4F on the flat when with Morrison) he should run a big race under Oisin Murphy from stall 3. The draw is interesting as the last three winners have all exited from a high number but I have always favoured a low number as there is a dog leg turn after a couple of furlongs which if forced wide can add yardage onto your journey. Buzz will be my main play although I can’t resist a small each way bet on the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Live Your Dream who did us a favour when winning in the Summer on the July course. He bumped into a plot horse of Charlie Byrne’s in Turnpike Trip in the Cesarewitch trial last time over course and distance finishing an honourable 2L runner up with daylight back to the remainder. He can race off of the same handicap mark here despite being put up 4lb by the assessor making him the best handicapped horse in the field. The icing on the cake is the booking of young apprentice Adam Farragher who is attached to the William Haggas stable and scored a remarkable four timer at Chester last Saturday on his first visit there. He has to come out of stall 35 so I’m happy to have one drawn high and one drawn low. BUZZ 2 points each way @ 17/2 1/5th 1234567 William Hill LIVE YOUR DREAM 1 point each way @ 12/1 1/5th 1234567 Paddy Power
    9 points
  5. A decent day with a final points profit of just over 20 points.
    9 points
  6. Cambridgeshire day and with the ground lightning fast on Friday conditions are likely to ride the same again even with the clerk of the course watering after racing. Newmarket 1.50 The Royal Lodge is a group 2 contest for 2 year old colts and geldings run over a mile and has attracted a small but select field of 7 this year. The form horse has to be the Andrew Balding trained Masekela who’s last two runs have been boosted by Native Trail and Bayside Boy. He looks sure to run well with Oisin Murphy in the plate. The hard one to assess is the Charlie Appleby trained Coroebus who beat Saga on his debut at Newmarket and with that one winning well since is obviously smart. Royal Patronage is the other runner with a decent chance chasing a hat trick following wins at Epsom and in Group 3 company at York in the Acomb Stakes. The winner should come from this trio with slight preference for the potential of Coroebus who will be ridden by William Buick. COROEBUS 2 points win @ 5/2 Bet Victor Haydock 2.05 Charlie Appleby saddles his lightly raced three year old Noble Dynasty here having got the call in a three way photograph at Thirsk on his handicap debut and with only a 2lb rise in the weights should be competitive although at around the 6/4 mark is easily opposed on the point of value. Top weight Nugget appeals more having shown some smart handicap form in the spring but has a 147 day absence to overcome and I’m looking further down the betting for an edge. Tim Easterby’s Cruyff Turn has had an excellent season winning four times latterly in a decent class 2 York handicap at their Ebor meeting. He didn’t get the run of the race when 4th at Ayr last Saturday when looking as though he was very much still in form and although he’s risen 21lb this season may be the value call today. CRUYFF TURN 1 point win @ 7/1 Boylesports Newmarket 2.25 Thirteen have declared for the 6F Cheveley Park Stakes, a Group 1 contest for juvenile fillies. Ger Lyons sends over his unbeaten Juddmonte owned Sacred Bridge. She looked very good when winning in Group 3 company at The Curragh last month and could literally be anything. She’s the one they all have to beat though that is obviously reflected by her price at around 7/4. I was keen on Sandrine when she ran at York last time out in the Lowther but she fell out of the stalls and was always playing catch up in finishing a length runner up to Zain Claudette who re-opposes here. Sandrine was giving her rival 3lb that day and I confidently expect Andrew Balding’s filly to turn the tables on Ismail Mohammed’s runner today with better luck in running. Aidan O’Brien runs an interesting runner in Tenebrism who was last seen winning at Naas on soft ground over 5F in March. This is a big jump up in class but you can never discount a runner from the Ballydoyle trainer. At the prices I’ll take Sandrine each way to turn the tables on Zain Claudette and push Sacred Bridge all the way. It was interesting to hear Sandrine’s regular rider David Probert in a recent interview state that she would be the best horse he had ever ridden. SANDRINE 2 points each way @ 5/1 1/5th 1234 William Hill Haydock 2.40 A typical 5F Haydock sprint with 10 going to post. The race looks very tricky to my eyes and stakes should certainly be kept small. A case can feasibly be made for every runner if you’re prepared to go back far enough and the tentative selection is the Michael Dods runner Jawwaal who’s been in decent form this summer winning twice at Doncaster off of marks of 92 and 94 and has been beaten just over a length on his last two starts in class 2 handicaps off of a mark of 99. Off of the same mark he should be involved in the finish with Paul Mulrennan who’s riding exceptionally well currently on board. JAWWAAL 1 point win @ 10/3 BetVictor Newmarket 3.00 The third of three big two year races to be run this afternoon is the 6F Middle Park Stakes for colts only. Perfect Power comes here with the best form credentials having won Group 1 Prix Morny At Deauville last time with Asymmetric and Armor 1 3/4 and 2 1/4 lengths behind. Christophe Soumillon rode Richard Fahey’s Ardaad colt that day and is over from France to continue the association. The ground was on the slow side that day but he did win the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot on good to firm so the different ground shouldn’t be an issue. He’ll be hard to beat if in the same form although the Morny form was slightly let down by the runner up Trident getting beat on Thursday at Newmarket. Go Bears Go maybe the best each way value having run Perfect Power to a head in the Norfolk at Royal Ascot and won the Group 2 Railway Stakes since before a slightly below par 3rd in the Phoenix Stakes. PERFECT POWER 2 points win @ 2/1 Bet Victor Newmarket 3.40 One of my favourite handicap’s of the season the Cambridgeshire Handicap has attracted a maximum field of 35 and with the stalls spread right across the track there is likely to be a draw bias. Looking at the previous runnings and the races this week it seems that the stands side have an advantage so those that have been drawn high may have an edge. The last five winners have been drawn 28, 29, 21, 29 and 25. I flagged up the chances of handicap snip Chichester on Monday when he was a whopping 80/1 chance and everything has gone well with him this week with Hollie Doyle booked but I’ve cooled a bit on him now as he’s drawn stall 10 which may not be ideal. Maybe he’ll have enough in hand to win from the far side - let’s hope so. It wasn’t a shock to me that Frankie Dettori chose (and he has chosen I’m led to believe) Magical Morning over Uncle Bryn as he has the better form credentials and with a draw of 35 Magical Morning would have to be on anyone’s short list. Sir Michael Stoute’s Astro King has a big race like this in him but is drawn in ‘no mans land’ in 17 but I still expect him to be competitive under Ryan Moore. The two that I’m backing to add to my ante post play on Chichester with all the information to hand are the lightly raced Saeed Bin Suroor trained Long Tradition who’s berthed in stall 37 back on this near side rail with Marco Ghiani on board. This is his handicap debut and smacks a bit of Real World in the Royal Hunt Cup when bang against a rail Ghiani booted the Godolphin horse home before going to better things. The other horse I want in my portfolio is last years winner Majestic Dawn, a natural front runner who made all off of a 10lb lower mark last year under Paul Hanagan on this near side and has again been lucky with the draw in stall 34. I expect him to get across to the rail and make a very good fist of repeating last years victory with Hanagan replaced by William Buick and with his trainers Paul and Oliver Cole in good form. CHICESTER 1/2 point each way @ 80/1 (advised Monday) Bet365 ¼ 1234 MAJESTIC DAWN 1 point each way @ 20/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234567 LONG TRADITION 1 point each way @ 14/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234567
    9 points
  7. Day 2 of the Newmarket Cambridgeshire meeting and here’s my thoughts and fancies for the six ITV races including a couple of tough looking handicaps at York. The ground is likely to be good fast conditions for both meetings. Newmarket 1.50 The listed Rosemary Stakes is run over a mile of the Rowley mile and has attracted 13 fillies and mares this year. The race has an open look about it with the highest rated being the Godolphin three year old Soft Whisper who will be ridden by Frankie Dettori. She won a couple of nurseries last season before being shipped over to Meydan for the Dubai festival where she won twice more but this time on the dirt before she flopped badly in the UAE Derby. She’s not been seen since but the vibes are good for her recent work at Newmarket and at an each way price as officially the best in the race is worth a small bet. Roger Varian’s Fooraat ran well at York last time and with her stable in form may be the biggest threat. SOFT WHISPER 1 point each way @ 9/1 1/5th 1234 Bet365 York 2.25 An open end of season 6F handicap in which bets should be kept to a minimum in my opinion with plenty of these sprinters having had long seasons. The best recent form is brought to the table by John Quinn’s Mr Wagyu who ran an excellent third in the Ayr Gold Cup last Saturday. He should be competitive today. A horse who had Mr Wagyu behind him last time is the Ed de Giles trained Treacherous and he maybe the one to be backing small each way here today. He’s yet to win this season but did win five times last season and has run credibly on occasions this season including last time out when 4th in the Portland Handicap behind Hurricane Ivor (won since) with the aforementioned Mr Wagyu 1/2L behind. There’s others with chances but I’ll stick with Treacherous to finally come good but to small stakes. TREACHEROUS 1 point each way @ 13/2 1/5th 1234 William Hill Newmarket 2.25 Albaflora has the highest official rating here but is a much better horse when the mud is flying and with conditions tightening up all the time Ralph Beckett’s mare is worth opposing today. One horse I haven’t lost faith in is the Hugo Palmer trained four year old Golden Pass who loves to hear his hooves rattle and simply bumped into a Gosden improver in Free Wind last time out at Doncaster in the Group 3 Park Hill Stakes. That was over 14F and the drop to a mile and a half may well suit this daughter of Golden Horn as her best run this season was when out battling the aforementioned Free Wind at the July course at Newmarket over today’s distance of 12F. Ryan Moore takes over for the first time and with conditions likely to suit looks excellent each way value. His trainer was talking him up on the excellent Nick Luck Daily podcast earlier in the week. GOLDEN PASS 1 point each way @ 15/21/5th 1234 William Hill York 2.40 13 go to post for this 7F class 3 handicap and has an open look about it. La Trinidad is on my shortlist as he goes so well at this track but is creeping up the handicap whilst recent Doncaster winner Able Kane can be competitive with only a 3lb rise although he has to prove his stamina here having never run at 7F. John Quinn’s five year old Poets Magic has been in fine shape all season having only been out of the frame once in nine starts and can reward an each way bet. This confirmed front runner was chinned on the line at Doncaster last week and can race off of the same handicap mark today (he’s due to rise 1lb in future handicaps). Jason Hart knows him well and is in the saddle again today. He may have Challet as a contender out front but as long as he can bowl along out front will be a hard one to pass. POETS MAGIC 1 1/2 points each way @ 9/1 1/5th 1234 Paddy Power Newmarket 3.00 The 7F Rockfel Stakes is a Group two contest for fillies and looks most likely to go the way of the Andrew Balding trained Majestic Glory who’s the clear form horse having followed up her maiden victory on the July course here by winning the Group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes at the same venue last month. That success was given a major boost by the victory last weekend of the runner up Wild Beauty in a grade 1 contest in Canada. Her two most likeliest dangers are both stepping up in class with Ralph Beckett’s Girls On Film having won a maiden on the July course here last month and Roger Charlton’s Jumbly who’s won a maiden and a novice stakes contest. They’re both progressive but will need to step up dramatically to beat the 104 rated selection who stands out as the days best bet. MAJESTIC GLORY 3 points win @ 7/2 Bet365 Newmarket 3.35 An excellent renewal of the Group 2 Joel Stakes with it an odds on chance that the winner will be carrying the blue colours of Godolphin. Favourite Master Of The Seas hasn’t been seen since running Poetic Flare to a short head over course and distance in the 2000 Guineas in May and this lightly raced Dubawi colt can make up for lost time by winning this en route to some nice worldwide targets this Autumn. The vibes are strong that he’s working well and of course William Buick will be on top. His major danger may well be the Saeed Bin Suroor trained globetrotting Benbatl who’s won 10 of his 23 starts and should of added to that tally last time at Goodwood when he fell out of the stalls and didn’t have the clearest of passages though was only denied by the shortest of margins by Lavenders Blue at the finish with Pogo and Perotto behind and now held that day. The Shadwell runner Laneqash will appreciate the drying conditions and could hit the frame but for me Master Of The Seas can lead home a Godolphin 1-2. MASTER OF THE SEAS 2 points win @ 6/4 William Hill
    9 points
  8. 7.10am is the off time for the biggest WFA race in Australia, the Cox Plate. Just the 9 are set to line up after Gold Trip was scratched on Friday morning, but it looks a fascinating contest. You can watch the action online via Racing.com Zaaki - G3 was the highest level he won at when trained by Sir Michael Stoute over here, but he has looked a different horse since going to Australia where he has won 5 times including 2 G1s. His most impressive victory so far came in the Doomben Cup in May where he won by a very impressive 7l in a decent time. He won his first two races this prep, but was only 3rd behind Probabeel in the Caulfield Stakes last time and she was reversing form from Sandown the time before. There has been a few reasons given as to why he disappointed at Caulfield although I don't really buy the ground being too quick as he won on good to firm in the UK. He clearly has a very good chance on most of the form he has shown in Australia, but this is the best race he has run in and coming off the back of that Caulfield run I just think he is too short in the betting to want to back. Dalasan - Ran a hell of a race to finish 3rd to Addeybb and Verry Elleegant in the Queen Elizabeth back in April and would clearly have some sort of place chance on that form. Ran well enough when 3rd in the Epsom at Randwick last time as well, but would be a surprise winner. Callsign Mav - Coming over from New Zealand, but looks to have a tough task on his hands. Mo'unga - Trained, like Zaaki, by Annabel Neasham and she has been very sweat on his chances this week. He landed the Rosehill Guineas in March, but then disappointed a couple of times including when last in the Queen Elizabeth. Came back this prep and landed the Winx Stakes beating Verry Elleegant into 2nd place and then pushed Incentivise close in the Makybe Diva. He was 5th in the Epsom, but found himself too far back as he was still in 11th passing the 400m marker. I'm not sure he is quite good enough to win, but I can certainly see why his trainer think he has a good chance. Verry Elleegant - Another one of the leading fancies who disappointed last time. She looked to be travelling really at Flemington in the Turnbull, but just didn't pick up at all to finish 4th behind Incentivise. I certainly think you can let her off that effort as it was basically too bad to be true as the rest of her form over the last couple of years has been top class. Not only has she landed WFA G1's, but she also won last year's Caulfield Cup. There is rain forecast and the prediction is there will be enough to take it into the soft ratings which will help her cause as well. I think she is a big player here. Probabeel - Whereas Verry Elleegant would like the rain this mare wouldn't as all Probabeel's wins have been on good tracks. She was only 7th in this last year on a track rated a Soft 7 and was 12th in the All Star Mile here on a Soft 6. Although she took out the Caulfield Stakes over this trip last time, that was a slowly run race and I just wonder if 2000m is her optimum trip. Having said that if the ground was in the good range I probably would want something on her given her record on good tracks (she has only finished out of the first 2 twice in 17 starts and has won 12 of them). State Of Rest - This time last year he was finishing a fairly well beaten 5th in the Vertem Futurity Trophy at Doncaster and Joseph O'Brien's runner has only been seen twice finish. First of he finished 3rd in a Listed contest at the Curragh in June and then went and won the Saratoga Derby in August stepping up to 1900m for the first time. Up another 100m in trip could bring about further improvement and unless they got more rain than forecast I don't see the ground being an issue. I think he does have to improve again, but you couldn't rule it and nothern-hemisphere 3yos have a great record in this race with a win, a 2nd and 2 3rds from 6 starters. He has e/w claims. Anamoe - Was too strong in the Caulfield Guineas last time which was the fastest in the history of the race although I suspect the ground had probably rarely been as quick. That's not to diminish what he achieved because he is clearly a top class 3yo. I do think he has a very good chance, but there are a couple of things which put me off at the price he is. First of all he will likely be coming from the back as he is a held up horse who is drawn on the outside. Secondly there is that unknown about him at the trip and as much as he looks like he will stay you couldn't be certain. With those two things in mind I would want a bigger price about him as he could easily fly home into the places rather than into victory. Captivant - Anamoe has had his measure the last twice and unless the new trip makes a difference it is hard to fancy him. Verdict - Zaaki and Anamoe would not be surprise winners at all, but there prices seem on the short side to me given both have questions to answer. If there wasn't as much rain as forecast then I would want something e/w on Probabeel, but working on the fact it is going to be in the soft range I will back Verry Elleegant and State Of Rest. I can forgive Verry Elleegant her run last time and if she bounces back to her usual form then she will go very close. State Of Rest does have to improve, but he looked to thrive for the furthest trip he has raced over so far in America last time and he looks just the type who could go very well in this. Verry Elleegant @ 9/2 with Bet365 State Of Rest e/w @ 17/2 with William Hill
    8 points
  9. Half Nutz wins 10/1! There was a R4 but it has paid me out at 10/1 so it returned 11pts. Total pts staked today = 6pts Total pts returned today = 29pts 23pt profit. New P/L = +113.2pts
    8 points
  10. Been a while since I wrote an Australian flat racing preview and I will cover the Everest and Caulfield Cup this week, but first of all I am going to take a look at race 1 at Kyneton which is due off at 3.30am. A maiden at a country track wouldn't usually catch my attention, but I have a share in one of the horses running in the contest called Beneficio. I will get to her chances at the end and will take a look at the main rivals first. Rioyuki is favourite and it is easy to see why. She finished 2nd in the same maiden at Kilmore that Beneficio finished 4th in and she found herself too far back and then couldn't get the clearest of runs in the straight before finishing well for 2nd place. The winner looked very good and the time was quick as well. She had shown promise on her first start back in May and she will win races. The one possible chink is that she might need a bit further, but she does look the one to beat. Gloved made her debut in a Listed race back in March and then was 2nd on the all-weather back in August. I don't think that was an overly strong race though so I am happy enough to pass her over. There are a couple who are having their 2nd runs after being spelled after their first runs who could improve for the break, but they need to so the other main rival for me is Little Schnitty. She has had 7 runs already and has finished 2nd twice over 1200m before being well beaten at Flemington last time. She flew home and just missed in the first of the 2nds and was then beaten by a massive priced outsider in the 2nd of them. That Flemington race was only a BM64 and there were only 6 runners, but the winner won a G3 next time so as you expect it was a strong race. She will surely get her head in front eventually, but I don't think it will be here. NB has now been scratched. So to Beneficio. She has plenty of speed from the gate as she showed last time and also in her two trials prior to that first run. She had to get across from a wide draw a couple of weeks ago so had to use a bit of speed up early and she ended up settling in behind the winner. She kept trying and was only just caught for 3rd right on the line. Kilmore is uphill all the way in the home straight so it was no real surprise that she just faded a little late on. As I mention above I think it is going to prove to be a strong form race because the winner looked impressive and the winning time was nearly 6.5L quicker than standard. The trainer has reported that she has come on for that run and is fitter. What I really like about her is that she is a real trier and she will keep going which she did really well when winning her last trial. With the run under her belt and on a flatter track I hope that she will see out the trip better. I'm still not sure if that will be enough to hold of Rioyuki who is obviously going to be chasing her down late, but at the very least I think she rates a cracking e/w bet as I would be a bit disappointed if she didn't hit the frame. Worth adding as well that the stable is in really good form as he had 3 winners at Cranbourne on Friday night and one on Thursday. I will be backing her win and place with Bet365 and staking more on the place part of the bet. I will also be backing Rioyuki to win the race. Rioyuki @ 6/4 with Betfred Beneficio @ 9/1 win and 1.85/1 place with Bet365
    8 points
  11. Kerching! event_date time course selection betfair position 2021-10-18 13:55 Plumpton Midnights Legacy 2.14 1 2021-10-18 14:55 Pontefract Stag Horn 1.98 1 2021-10-18 17:22 Plumpton Achy Breaky Heart 1.83 1 Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 97.65 77.65 Month bets outlay return profit 8 31 620 703.98 83.98 9 29 580 573.37 -6.63 10 16 320 518.44 198.44
    7 points
  12. RESULTS UPDATE Trixie goes in, finally. Profit = £92.50. My new balance is £810.68 (Bank £1056.22) 😍🤩
    7 points
  13. 24pts staked total today. Winners were.... Eldar Eldarov 3/1 My Mate Mozzie 15/8 Flight Deck 7/2 Dark Shot 18/1 Total pts returned = 46.35 Profit for the day = 22.35pts New P/L = +51.45pts
    7 points
  14. Bang on

    N.H. Handicaps

    As I wrote (can't exactly remember where), I have a National Hunt handicap selection method that has worked well for some time now and am willing to post selections after I have placed my bet. There are not selections every day, but the strike rate has been solid around 50% or so. Prices are decent (average around 3/1+). Hoping that it continues now posting on here. Todays selection - bet365 - B.O.G. 4.05 Hex - Graystown - 9/2 ... lost ... fell 2 out when challenging for the lead.
    7 points
  15. The end of the flat at Newbury and Doncaster cross over with the start of the jumpers today with ITV showing 5 races from the home of National Hunt Cheltenham. The ground will be testing at the two flat tracks but just on the slow side at Cheltenham. Here’s my weekly thoughts on the days races:- Cheltenham 1.45 16 runners go to post for this conditional jockeys handicap hurdle with the unexposed Samarrive heading the market. Trained by Paul Nicholls he was an easy winner of a Kempton novice hurdle on his British debut in April and literally could be thrown in here. He’s been well found mind in the market at around 9/4 and with four or more places I’m looking elsewhere for a small each way bet. Fergal O’Brien has made a blistering start to the season racking up 58 winners already and saddles three here. The pick of them maybe Samba Dancer who’s on a hat trick of victories following wins at Uttoxeter and Stratford this Autumn. He’s up 6lb but has the assistance of useful stable conditional Liam Harrison who can claim 3lb. He should be competitive and can reward an each way bet. SAMBA DANCER 1 point each way @ 7/1 ¼ 1234 Bet365 Newbury 2.00 The ground is going to very testing at the Berkshire track for this 7F Group 3 Horris Hill Stakes. Favourite Noble Truth is trained by Charlie Appleby who’s had such a fantastic Autumn with his juveniles and will be very hard to beat here with the best form and proven ability to act in very soft ground. He was beaten under a length on Arc De Triomphe day at ParisLongchamp by Ralph Beckett’s mud loving Angel Bleu and with James Doyle taking over from William Buick is one of the days better bets. NATIVE TRUTH 3 points win @ 5/4 Bet365 Cheltenham 2.20 A 3m 1F handicap chase with last season’s Ladbroke Trophy Handicap Chase winner Cloth Cap heading the weights. He flopped in the Grand National when last seen when he reportedly made a noise and has undergone wind surgery since. 20lb higher now than his Ladbroke Trophy victory he looks one to be against. Kerry Lee is a very capable trainer who trains in the hills of Byton in Herefordshire and has won with her last 4 runners including an easy victory for Magic Dancer at Worcester in the week. She saddles Storm Control here and he looks the one to be on. He’s won two of his three starts at the track including twice last season and can race today off of a mark of 137 which is the same as when winning in the latter of those two victories. His usual partner Richard Patrick is in the saddle and he looks worthy of a fair bet. STORM CONTROL 2 points each way @ 11/2 ¼ 123 Bet365 Newbury 2.35 The St Simon Stakes is a Group 3 contest run over 1m 4F and the favourite Siskany who did us favour last time out when winning a valuable handicap at Newmarket on good to soft ground will be tough to beat. He’s top rated on official ratings and like his stable companion Native Truth in the 2.00 is proven on very soft ground so should be hard to beat as the only three year old in the race. Ilaraab will also love the ground and is maybe more of a threat than the likes of Max Vega who’s dropping in trip whilst don’t totally dismiss rank outsider Inchicore who will love the conditions. SISKANY 3 points win @ EVS William Hill SISKANY & NATIVE TRUTH 2 points win double @ 5/4 & EVS Cheltenham 2.55 A small but select field of four go to post for the Masterson Holdings Hurdle run over 2m 87yds. Likely favourite will be the Alan King trained Tritonic who looked smart last year when winning at Kempton prior to a rather disappointing 5th in the Triumph Hurdle. He’s useful but has to shoulder a 8lb penalty here against two nice fellow four year olds in the Dan Skelton trained Stepney Causeway who’s chasing a five timer and has had wind surgery since we last saw him and the promising novice I Like To Move It who won well at Worcester earlier in the month. Tritonic may well win but is poor value at the current prices and I’ll chance Stepney Causeway to small stakes. STEPNEY CAUSEWAY 2 points win @ 7/4 Bet365 Doncaster 3.15 The Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes is a Group 1 race and the last big two year old contest in the UK this year. Several big names have won this prestigious contest over the years including Reference Point, High Chaparral, Motivator, St Nicholas Abbey and Camelot. Aidan O’Brien has won the race 9 times in total and needs one more to equal the great Sir Henry Cecil’s record of ten wins. O’Brien saddles his unbeaten colt Luxembourg who’s looked pretty special in winning at Killarney and The Curragh this season. Both those victories were however gained on good ground and this will be his first experience on a racecourse of soft ground and for that reason alone I’ll look elsewhere with him being a very short price. Hopefully all 8 will run which will open the race up for a each way punt with Andrew Balding’s Imperial Fighter is the one that interests me the most as he has proven form on soft ground which none (bar rank outsider Hannibal Barca) have. A comfortable debut winner at Goodwood on soft ground he’s followed that up with silver medals at two Group 3 contests latterly behind smart juvenile Coroebus. He looks good each way value under David Probert. IMPERIAL FIGHTER 1 point each way @ 8/1 1/5th 123 Bet365 Cheltenham 3.30 Only 9 go to post for this 2 mile handicap chase with the useful Jonjo O’Neill trained Sky Pirate heading the weights. His presence keeps the weights down for the Sam Thomas trained 8 year old Before Midnight who was last seen winning at Chepstow in April. A rise of 7lb is unlikely to halt his progression and he looks the one to be on today. BEFORE MIDNIGHT 2 points win @ 3/1 Bet365 Doncaster 3.50 A weak listed contest for two year olds run over 6F. Tom Dascombe’s Flaming Rib is some way clear on official ratings having won three nurseries but is short enough about a horse who has yet to race on ground slower than good to soft. I’ll take a chance with the Ralph Beckett trained Deodar who won a Newbury maiden on his debut on slow ground under Rob Hornby who’s replaced here by top pilot Ryan Moore. The horse he touched off that day Witch Hunter has shown decent form in two outings since and is now rated 101 which using him as a guide would put the selection only 6lb behind Flaming Rib with plenty of improvement to come. DEODAR 2 points win @ 5/2 William Hills Cheltenham 4.05 An open looking 3 mile handicap hurdle can go the way of Irish challenger Born Patriot trained in County Kildare by Peter Fahy who’s been amongst the winners in the last fortnight in his homeland. He ran cutest favourite Tullybeg to just under 10L last time out at Navan over 2m 6Foff of level weights and re-opposes today on 8lb better terms and with the extra distance certain to suit looks a good each way bet considering he’s twice the price of Gordon Ellott’s Tullybeg. In a tough race he’s the selection with his regular pilot Kevin Sexton in the saddle. BORN PATRIOT 1 1/2 points each way @ 8/1 ¼ 123 Bet365 Doncaster 4.20 A typical end of season 5F sprint with 15 going to post. You can make a case for many at the front of the market as you would imagine with the likes of Zargun, Illusionist and Raasel all coming into the race in good form but I’m looking at a double figure priced runner in Philip Makin’s Lahore who comes here with form figures this season of 060007 ! He shaped like he was coming back to form when 3 1/2L 7th to the aforementioned Illusionist and Zargun at York last time and is now 8lb and 7lb better off with that pair respectively. He has a very good record at the Yorkshire track with figures of 1161 and his mark today of 90 is 11lb and 6lb lower than his two victories in 2020. He’s won here on soft ground (by 4L) so conditions hold no fear and will be ridden by PJ McDonald. He looks a value each way play in an open contest. LAHORE 1 point each way @ 10/1 ¼ 123 Bet365
    6 points
  16. Young Fitzy 1st & She Is A Contender 2nd. Gutted I didn't do the forecast but a nice 7pt return from the race.
    6 points
  17. Sasnovich vs Azarenka - Over 19.5 Games at 1.80 with Pinnacle Sasnovich (+ 5.5 Games) to beat Azarenka at 1.68 with Pinnacle Sasnovich to beat Azarenka at 4.01 with Pinnacle I said on my last pick that Halep was being overrated. She was not playing good and Sasnovich's last results were suggesting that she would have chances to upset Halep. Well..., I only have seen a short part of that match, but Sasnovich has beat her in 2 sets (7-5, 6-4). She has won all her 3 matches here in straight sets (MC Osorio, Raducanu and Halep). Azarenka's last results are not good. She has not been able to win more than 2 straight matches since she did in Berlin, 4 months ago. In her 1st match here, she benefited from Linette's injury to reach the 2nd round. Now, she has benefited from Kvitova's physical problems to reach the 3rd round (Kvitova needed medical treatment on her thigh in the 1st set). I have seen the whole match and I have to say that it has been really bad. Both players have played really aggressive (as it was expected), but the amount of errors has been excessive. It's also remarkable how bad both players have been with their serve. The first set has been a nightmare. Vika is the best player, but Sasnovich has showed more, much more. These players have never played before.
    6 points
  18. Won. BSP 7.81. 55 / 147, lsp + £ 38.48.
    6 points
  19. P/L = +21.1pts 1402 York Witch Hunter 5/1 2pt win 1425 Chepstow Court Master 11/1 1.5pt win 1505 Fairyhouse Glan 2/1 2pt win 1515 York Gulliver 10/1 1pt e/w (2pts total) (free 1pt bet staked as part of the bet so only 1pt of bank staked) *paying 6 places 1530 Chepstow Glory & Honour 14/1 0.5pts e/w (1pt total) *paying 5 places 1535 Newmarket Foveros 10/1 1pt e/w (2pts total), Platform Nineteen 18/1 0.5pts e/w (1pt total) & Takarengo 33/1 0.5pts e/w (1pt total) *paying 7 places 1635 Limerick Spanish Tenor 8/1 1pt win 1700 York Last Look 20/1 0.5pts e/w (1pt total) *paying 5 places ****The group have staked 16.5pts today with 1pt e/w on Last Look & 1pt e/w on Takarengo the missing points on the selections above. I have halved staked on both those selections because of the odds and I know that might bite me in the arse at some point, but so far I've reduced stakes on only losing horses at big odds. The group have also gone a straight win on Glory & Honour but I've backed it 0.5pts e/w as you can see above. Last Saturday was day two of the service and we staked and lost 17pts so I'm trying to be a bit more sensible on what is notoriously known as the trickiest racing day. I asked the group if anyone had tracked Saturday selections since the beginning of the group and they had and they were in profit for a Saturday overall. But they said Saturday's have been the most rewarding and most damaging to the P/L. Anyway, hopefully this Saturday is more fruitful. 13.5pts staked 🍀🍀🍀
    6 points
  20. Thoughts on the 2yo group races tomorrow 133 chantilly Bastogne 250 chantilly Dizzy Bizu 145 NewM Gold Spur 220 NewM ???? (too open no bet for me) 255 NewM Straight Answer (my highest speed figure of the year) the current 6/1 is far too big a price. 202 York ???? (too open no bet for me) Additional observation-the Cesaravitch i have watched Burning Victory cruise to two wins over trips in France this year and was very impressed but as always with Mullins there are too may options although i think this is his best chance, (laid out)? I don't like the prices on this race at the moment, the bookies are giving nothing, in fact they are extracting the urine with this book.
    6 points
  21. Darran

    Oct 5th fixtures

    Altrincham v Grimsby You have to hand it to Altrincham as they have known beaten Notts County and Dagenham in their last 3 games as well as a comprehensive 4-1 win over Kings Lynn. Although they only had 3 shots on target on Saturday they did create plenty of chances as they have been doing in recent matches. They are 3 from 3 at home and clearly they have the capability of beating another side who are top of the table, as Grimsby overtook Dagenham on Saturday. Grimsby had a very comfortable afternoon beating Dover 6-0 and that meant they are 5/5 at home this term. Away though it has been a different story and they have only managed to beat Torquay on their travels so far and that was when the home side were struggling. They were poor at Maidenhead and then lost to Bromley. I'd still make them slight favourites to win this, but no way should the home side be as big as they are based on recent performances and confidence is going to be sky high right now. Halifax v Notts County Two losses on the spin now for County and their defending left a lot to be desired against Woking on Saturday. They weren't strong up front either as an xG of just 0.78 suggests and that is the 3rd time in their last 4 games that the opposition have had a higher xG than them. Halifax have been pretty good at home so far this season and were a bit unfortunate not to win at Barnet on Saturday. Somehow Pete Wild has got together another side who are capable of finishing in the top half of the table which is some achievement and I think they will cause County problems here, especially given County don't seem quite at it at the moment certainly compared to earlier in the season. Halifax certainly look the value call to me. Woking v Dagenham & Redbridge Two of our ante-post sides so probably better a Dagenham win, but no doubt in my mind that Woking are the value play here. Obviously we know what they did at Notts County on Saturday and as much as Tahvon Campbell didn't impress me when he was on loan at Gloucester last season, he has been very impressive for Woking and he is now up to 8 goals for the season. Dagenham are obviously a very good side, but losing in the way they did on Saturday was not good. They also seem to have this habit of going behind at the moment. I would still have Dagenham as favourites, but Woking aren't anywhere near as far behind them in quality as the betting suggests. Wrexham v Chesterfield It is so annoying that with no other football on TV on Tuesday that BT Sport have chosen to put Wealdstone v Solihull on as the live game whereas as this one or the Woking v Dagenham game would have been much better choices to highlight the division. Chesterfield will be keen to put their last two results behind them because dropping 3 points in the way they did was pretty shocking and certainly not what potential champions do. This will be a tough game, but I've still yet to be convinced by Wrexham and they suffered a couple of key injuries on Saturday in their abandoned game. I'd argue that Chesterfield are likely to have the stronger starting line up and although Chesterfield have already been backed I still think there is juice in the price. Altrincham 1pt @ 9/4 with Bet365 (take up to 15/8) Halifax 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365 (take up to 15/8) Woking 1pt @ 13/5 with Bet365 (take up to 15/8) Chesterfield 1pt @ 13/5 with Bet365 (take up to 7/4)
    6 points
  22. event_date time course selection betfair position 2021-10-05 13:30 Brighton Baileysgutfeeling 2.08 1 2021-10-05 14:55 Galway Ilikedwayurthinkin 1.92 1 2021-10-05 16:40 Galway Smooth Player 1.64 1 Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 85.52 65.52 Month bets outlay return profit 8 31 620 703.98 83.98 9 29 580 573.37 -6.63 10 4 80 100.19 20.19
    6 points
  23. Flat selection Tipperary 2.35 AHANDFULLOFSUMMERS 2/1
    6 points
  24. 8 races on ITV Saturday afternoon and the ground looks likely to ease with plenty of rain around the country so with that in mind I’ve looked at them on softish ground. Newmarket 1.45 A well contested 10F three year old fillies handicap looks open with many fillies holding claims. Swoon trained by local trainer Sir Michael Stoute is the most interesting runner in the 14 strong field, coming here having won novice stakes contests at Wolverhampton and Carlisle and shouldn’t mind if the ground was to soften up being by Frankel out of a mare who adored soft ground. Her initial mark of 86 looks workable and she should be thereabouts. Roger Varian saddles two in Ms Ghandi and Ensemble and it’s the latter who maybe best of that pair although she has yet to encounter easy ground. Achelois is towards the head of the market and rightly so having won three of her last five starts including on soft ground at Goodwood in July. It’s a tough competitive handicap where stakes should be kept small but preference may just be for the William Buick ridden Achelois for her trainer Andrew Balding. ACHELOIS 1 point each way @ 11/2 1/5th 1234 BetVictor Ascot 2.05 A 5F listed race with several sprinters contesting this who have been on the go all season. The best in at the weights is Minzaal but he hasn’t been seen since finishing third in the Middle Park over a year ago. Hurricane Ivor arrives in top form but does have to shoulder a 5lb penalty for his Group 3 victory at Newbury last time out. Tis Marvellous was just behind Hurricane Ivor last time and has claims although if the ground went very soft that wouldn’t suit either of that pair. Dakota Gold has won the last two runnings of this race and won’t mind slow ground so he has to be a player but the horse I’m interested in is Karl Burke’s three year old sprinter Significantly who’s already shown decent form at the Berkshire track with his best effort coming on heavy ground at the Royal meeting when winning the 5F three year olds handicap. Just behind Hurricane Ivor and Tis Marvellous at Newbury last time after starting slowly he may be able to turn the tables now with a cleaner start back on slower ground. SIGNIFICANTLY 1 1/2 points each way @ 13/2 1/5th 123 Bet365 Newmarket 2.20 A maximum field of 30 go to post for this 6F Tattersalls October Auction Stakes with prize money all the way down to tenth position. There’s a vast majority of these that have no realistic chance and despite the numbers the main contenders can be singled out. Fearby won’t mind easy ground and Ed Bethell has booked Ryan Moore to ride his colt. He’s the best treated in the race and has to be part of any staking plan. Others with claims include the Marco Botti trained Tatsumaki who’s on a hat trick of victories following wins on the July course here and on the all weather at Newcastle whilst Ed Walker’s Piffle, owned by his mother is another on a hat trick although both that pair have yet to encounter easy ground. Richard Hannon does well in this type of race and it would be no shock if his Foden stepped up from his easy 5 1/2L Lingfield soft ground maiden from 105 days ago and was competitive. Also in with a shout is the Simon Pearce trained Stubble Field who pushed the favourite all the way on his debut in a Ascot novices stakes. I’ll play Fearby as my main bet but can’t resist an each way play on Foden also. FEARBY 2 points win @ 7/2 William Hill FODEN 1 point each way @ 12/1 1/5th 12345 Ascot 2.40 The Cumberland Lodge Stakes is a Group 3 contest run over 12F with the likely favourite being Hukum who has to carry a 3lb penalty here for his Group 3 Newbury victory in August. He was rather disappointing last time out when turned over at odds on on the all weather and although he will probably enjoy racing back on the turf looks scant value to me at around the 2/1 mark. I’ll take him on with the progressive Roger Varian runner Title who on official ratings at these weights today only has a pound to find with Hukum. He bolted up in a Doncaster handicap on easy ground over this trip at the Leger meeting and although this represents a step up in grade let’s not forget he was third in the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot to Arc outsider Alenquer. Hughie Morrison’s Quickthorn comes here in decent form also and can also make his presence felt but I’ll stick with Title. TITLE 2 points win @ 7/2 Bet365 Newmarket 2.55 The Group 1 Sun Chariot is the feature race of the day run over 1 mile of the Rowley mile for three year old fillies and mares. The front two in the betting have solid chances in Aidan O’Brien’s Mother Earth who was very unlucky in Ireland last time and has been a model of consistency throughout her career (only ever been out of the frame once in 14 career starts). She looks sure to be thereabouts. Snow Lantern is another consistent filly trained by Richard Hannon who had Mother Earth 1/2L behind in second when winning the Falmouth Stakes on the July course here back in July. There shouldn’t be much between them today. If the ground was too easy further that would be against the likes of Primo Bacio and Lavenders Blue with Irish raider Epona Plays becoming interesting if the ground went bad. I’ll take Snow Lantern to win. SNOW LANTERN 1 point win @ 5/2 Bet365 Ascot 3.15 A Group 3 contest over 6F with the conditions looking spot on for the Archie Watson trained Glen Shiel who loves the mud. Officially the best in at these weights today he’s back at the scene of his Group 1 victory at Champions Day last Autumn under Hollie Doyle. He’s run well all season and today’s conditions look ideal for him having to carry no penalty for that Group 1 victory. With Hollie Doyle not around Paul Mulrennan gets the call up and he has actually won on the horse last year. Great Ambassador ran a blinder in the Ayr Gold Cup when comprehensively winning his race on his side but was chinned on the line by the enterprisingly ridden Bielsa on the other side of the track. He’s 8lb better off with Bielsa here and has obvious claims though he’s one who doesn’t want soft ground so if the ground is on the boggy side preference is for Glen Shiel. If the ground got very bad then I wouldn’t be shocked to see Joseph Tuite’s new acquisition Lullaby Moon run well. He won the Redcar Two Hear Old Trophy over 6F on soft ground on this day last year and has been campaigned over further in three starts this season for Ralph Beckett. If the ground gets very bad he’s worth a small each way interest. GLEN SHIEL 2 points win @ 7/2 Bet365 LULLABY MOON (only if ground is soft/heavy) 1/2 point each way @ 40/1 1/5th 1234 Paddy Power Redcar 3.35 A smaller field than normal for the William Hill Two Year Old Trophy with 15 going to post for this listed contest run over 6F. The ground is key here with market leaders Vintage Clarets and Chipotle both unproven on soft ground. With doubts over those I’m going to take a chance a throw a dart at a big priced runner in the Adrian Nicholls runner Poetikel Piece who has had the one run when 6th of 8 in a fast ground Haydock maiden. Hardly form good enough to trouble horses rated in the 90’s and even 100’s but he lost his chance at the start that day and his canny trainer who has in his care the smart three year old sprinter Mo Celita, who’s won 5 of her 7 starts this season, must feel she has more to offer as he gave her a Cheveley park entry earlier in the season. Being by Mayson she may well appreciate some cut in the ground and at a monster price is worth a small each way interest (especially with those firms offering enhanced place terms). POETIKEL PIECE 1/2 point each way @ 33/1 1/5th 1234 Bet365 Ascot 3.50 The final ITV race today and in my opinion the best bet of the day in the Clive Cox trained River Nymph. A 18 runner 7F heritage handicap although with plenty of the wet stuff around it would not be a shock if we were to see a few non runners prior to post time. Cox has two entered in this contest in the aforementioned River Nymph and the progressive Aratus. Adam Kirby has ridden both and it seems significant that he has chosen the former here with the most important factor surely the ground as River Nymph needs the mud whereas Aratus is seemingly better on a sounder surface. He could easily be taken out if the rain persists tomorrow. River Nymph did us a favour when coming late under Kirby to win the Victoria Cup over course and distance back in May and is only 4lb higher now. He’s kept pattern company since and his recent 4th to Silent Escape at Newbury can be marked up as he was struck into and lost a shoe during the race. He should confirm the form from that run with Symbolize , Tomfre , Fundamental and Mums Tipple who were all behind him. Aldaary likes the mud and has kept his form throughout the season. He can also run well today for the Shadwell team of Haggas and Crowley. Also in with a chance is bottom weight Fresh who loves soft ground but has never raced at 7F so has to prove his stamina. I’m very keen on River Nymph who has plenty going for him and can be backed at an each way price still with enhanced places. RIVER NYMPH 2 1/2 points each way @ 11/2 ¼ 1234 Bet365
    6 points
  25. New month and going to do a P/L with selections for October. Prices were as of last night when I placed them and will be settled using BOG.... 1250 Saint Cloud Making Moovies 4/1 1pt win 2nd = 1pt loss 1300 Fontwell Baddesley 7/2 1pt win 3rd = 1pt loss 1355 Ascot Walhaan 6/1 1pt win 3rd = 1pt loss 1540 Ascot Bickerstaffe 4/1 1pt win 1st = 5pts returned 1733 Gowran Park Outback Flyer 50/1 1/4pt e/w (1/2pt total) 10th = 0.5pt loss 1845 Dundalk Star Girls Aalmal 16/1 1/4pt e/w (1/2pt total) 6th = 0.5pt loss 5pts staked 🍀
    6 points
  26. After 13 years on the site and over 10K posts I've now just been upgraded to 'Rookie' crikey, you've got to earn these badges around here ....... 👀 😍
    6 points
  27. Well done to @mick33 who hangs on to win this month's competition. @BBBC finishes 2nd. @Rainbowgoes one better than last month with a fantastic 50/1 winner on the last day. This also ensures the naps in total once again show a profit. @Tipsterixfinishes 4th.
    6 points
  28. Won. BSP 3.93. Monthly profit £140.36. YTD + £180.73.
    6 points
  29. September running total = + 20.91 pts Seem to be missing the target recently and taking small losses. Quite busy with 4 selections today. Todays selections - bet365 B.O.G. 3.50 York - Captain Cooper - 4/1 ... lost 4.02 Worc - Pagero - 9/4 ... WON 5.25 York - Topanticipation - 2/1 ... lost 7.00 Newc - Hostelry - 3/1 ... lost Another frustrating day. September now = + 20.16 pts
    6 points
  30. Kerching! event_date Time Course Selection betfair position 2021-09-23 13:45 Pontefract Eldrickjones 1.34 1 2021-09-23 15:05 Perth Clondaw Hollow 1.83 1 2021-09-23 18:00 Wolverhampton Kaboo 1.81 1 Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 63.14 43.14 First time since the start of the month in profit ... so no jinxing! Month bets outlay return profit 8 31 620 703.98 83.98 9 23 460 464.92 4.92
    6 points
  31. Elysium wins 11/1 to return 18pts.
    5 points
  32. P/L = +90.2pts 1340 Naas Ballincrea Bud 33/1 0.5pt win 1450 Naas Elysium 11/1 1.5pt win 1530 Sedgefield Red Giant 4/1 2pt win 1635 Naas Half Nutz 10/1 1pt win 5pts staked.
    5 points
  33. 3 of my tips where there is still some value. AFC Telford v Farsley Celtic (National League North) Farsley fully deserved their victory over Curzon last week when I opposed them and if they carry on with that form in this game then I think they will take the 3 points. Telford beat Chorley on the opening day of the season, but they have lost every game since apart from a draw against Hereford. They sacked their manager last week, but lost to Spennymoor and then Boston beat them 4-1 on Tuesday night so little has changed on the back of the sacking. Farsley just look very over priced for this game. Weston Super Mare v Salisbury (Southern Premier South) Weston flattered to deceive again on Tuesday night when they lost 2-1 to Yate. They should be doing much better than they are and it especially seems that their home form isn't quite up to scratch. They host a Salisbury side who will have been disappointed to have drawn against Hartley Witney last week, but they continue to be in strong form and have just lost twice all season. I think they can get the better of their hosts here. Southend v Chertsey So Phil Brown has finally gone at Southend, but this isn't exactly a game they will be wanting right now as they are on a hiding to nothing really. They have yet to lose in the league this season in 5 games and are still in the FA Trophy. Again its a 3 level gap, but Southend are there for the taking at the moment. Farsley Celtic 1pt @ 29/10 with William Hill (take up to 7/4) Salisbury 1pt @ 15/8 with Skybet (take up to 11/8) Chertsey 1pt @ 6/1 with Betfred (take up to 4/1)
    5 points
  34. No probs Tim I just bak all unseated and pulled up in all British and irish racing daily just look down the racecards I do e/w 11/2 and over and each way extra for 250/1 to 33/1 normally 5 or 6 places or 2 or 3 places in races under 7 runners I will still post nap and £20 challenge not that ther worth doing at moment but this thread just look down race card look for U or P last race all the best lee💰
    5 points
  35. come here for free tips some of the top naps and mclarke harry etc all provide great roi. 🤑
    5 points
  36. ITV are showing 9 races Friday afternoon and with the ground drying at Newmarket I’m expecting perfect ground there with just a slight ease whilst at York the ground is likely to be soft. Here’s my thoughts on the nine:- Newmarket 1.50 The Group 3 Cornwallis Stakes is run over 5F and has this year attracted a healthy turn out of 13 runners. Likely favourite is the Hugo Palmer trained Hierarchy who was just touched off in the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury last time and drops to the minimum trip here. He is a major player and should go very close if handling the slightly easier ground. Irish raider Twilight Jet will handle the ground and comes here on the back of his best run when 5th of 10 beaten only a length and a half in the Group 1 Middle Park and like Hierarchy is also dropping in distance. Although the stalls are placed in the centre it wouldn’t be a shock to see the field navigate over to this stands side as in previous meetings meaning that high numbers may have an advantage. With Hierarchy drawn in 13 as opposed to Twilight Jet in stall 2 he is the small stakes selection. HIERARCHY 2 points win @ 5/2 William Hill Chepstow 2.10 Just short of 3 miles this is a veterans handicap chase with a wide open look to it. David Pipe has his Nicholshayne team in fine form currently and won this race two years ago with the likeable Vieux Lion Rouge off of a 6lb lower mark and can go close to repeating that feat on his first run since falling in the Grand National in April. His owner Professor Caroline Tisdall actually sponsors this race so you would think that her own horse will be primed to try and win back her money. It’s a tough contest mind as plenty are having their first run of the season and without market clues just a small wager is suggested. VIEUX LION ROUGE 1 point each way @ 10/1 1/5th 123 Bet365 Newmarket 2.25 An open looking Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes which is for two year old fillies. Good American was impressive when winning on her debut but that was only a Salisbury maiden and although the runner up that day has won since this represents a big step up in grade on easier ground. Gifted Gold is a similar type in that she won her maiden at Newcastle (2nd won since) but faces stiffer opposition here. Pearl Glory followed up wins at Lingfield and Salisbury by a one length second spot in the Group 3 Dick Poole at Salisbury and is another witch claims. Alllayaali and Perfect News come here on the back of nursery wins and are others to respect. It’s a hard race to crack with slight preference for Allayaali who impressed when winning a Doncaster nursery and may have more to offer here. ALLAYAALI 1 point each way @ 11/1 1/5th 123 Bet365 Chepstow 2.45 The Persian War Novices Hurdle signals the start of the National Hunt season for some and this years renewal run over 2m 3F 100yds has 8 nice novices going to post. Bar the two outsiders the remaining six can all be given a chance with the Nicky Henderson trained First Street who’s chasing a hat trick in with a good chance. Also in with a big chance is the Paul Nicholls trained Paso Doble who made all the running when winning easily at Kempton in May. Nicholls took this meeting by storm last season with 4 winners a piece on both the Friday and Saturday and would have had many decent novices to pick from to run here. To small stakes he’s the pick here. PASO DOBLE 1 point win @ 3/1 Bet365 Newmarket 3.00 The Group 2 Godolphin Stud & Stable Staff Awards Challenge Stakes is run over 7F and has attracted 9 runners this year. The Godolphin pair Al Suhail and D’bai met last time out with the latter finishing 3/4L ahead of his stable companion and can confirm that form today. Chindit drops a furlong and is the best in here at the weights and should be thereabouts. With Thanks bounced back to form last weekend in soft ground at Ascot but may find the drying ground against him whilst Double Or Bubble would have preferred rattling fast summer ground and is dismissed for those reasons. John Quinn’s Safe Voyage has been a fine servant over the years and this eight year old maybe the best value in the race. Ideally he would want it even softer but I believe there will be sufficient cut in the ground for him to perform to his best. 7F with cut in the ground are his optimum conditions and I’ll be playing small each way. SAFE VOYAGE 1 point each way @ 11/1 1/5 123 Bet365 York 3.15 A competitive 20 runner 1 mile handicap with bookmakers currently betting 8/1 the field. The ground is officially soft here and my two against the field are both proven mudlarks. Top weight Raising Sand may now be into the veteran stage but with the ground in his favour and a favourable low draw I can see him running well despite top weight. He’s 6lb lower than his last winning mark so is no doubt well handicapped. Nicola Currie has won on him in the past and gets the leg up today. My main selection though is last years winner Ouzo who has fallen to the identical handicap mark that he was successful from that day with the only negative being that he is drawn so wide in stall 19 which may not be ideal. Sean Levey is in the saddle today. OUZO 1 point each way @ 9/11/5th 123456 Paddy Power RAISING SAND 1/2 point each way @ 12/1 1/5th 12345 BetVictor Newmarket 3.35 Inspiral heads the market for the Group 1 Fillies Mile and will be very hard to beat as long as she handles ground with some ease in it. Currently favourite for both the 2022 1000 Guineas and Oaks she’s done nothing wrong in her three career starts to date winning a Newmarket maiden, Sandown listed contest and the Group 2 Doncaster May Hill all in the style of a very smart filly. Frankie Dettori has been on board for all three starts and keeps the association going today. Wild Beauty is comfortably held on Sandown form whilst Mise En Scene, a winner of the Group 3 Prestige Stakes at Goodwood will need to raise her game further to worry John and Thady Gosden’s favourite. The Aidan O’Brien candidate Concert Hall has to be taken seriously but this for me is all about Inspiral and she’s a confident selection. INSPIRAL 5 points win @ 4/5 William Hill York 3.50 13 go to post for this 14F three year old handicap with top weight Mahrajaan a progressive handicapper trained by William Haggas and owned by Shadwell who will be a tough nut to crack. A ready winner at Hamilton over 12F in August he steps up 2F in trip which hopefully will suit and he can take this before warranting a step up in grade. Ravenscraig Castle was third in the Melrose over course and distance at the Ebor meeting and looks a danger along with Surrey Gold who looks a horse with a bit more to offer. MAHRAJAAN 2 points win @ 3/1 Bet365 Newmarket 4.10 A competitive 15 runner 12F handicap for three year olds with many progressive sorts. Top weight Siskany has done little wrong this season and has been gelded since last seen at Goodwood in July when runner up in a valuable three year olds 12F handicap. He goes on any ground and with the Charlie Appleby team in such fine form this Autumn looks sure to be thereabouts. Also towards the top of the handicap is Charlie Fellowes’s Injazati who’s chasing a four timer though is up 7lb for his latest success at Newbury. Roger Varian’s Moshaawer is dropping in trip from his excellent second in the Melrose at York and is another possible if coping with the 2F shorter distance whilst Boltaway is worth a mention as he’s also been in top form of late for trainer Roger Charlton. Many with chances but I’ll take Siskany to see them all off. SISKANY 3 points win @ 7/2 Bet365
    5 points
  37. Oisin Murphy stood down for being over the drink limit for racing, this is his second offence and 3rd if you count the Cocaine ban Sorry the apologists should back off its a dangerous game his own and others lives are in danger and the more worrying point of this is he must have been tested around about midday if that doesn't say everything nothing will. He needs a healthy lengthy ban to get himself sorted out.
    5 points
  38. Won. BSP 2.31. Monthly profit £78.96.
    5 points
  39. Nice event_date time course selection betfair position 2021-10-07 13:30 Ayr Natchez Trace 4 NR 2021-10-07 15:05 Exeter Sergeant 1.66 1 2021-10-07 16:55 Ayr One Night In Milan 3.75 1 Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 89.30 69.30 Month bets outlay return profit 8 31 620 703.98 83.98 9 29 580 573.37 -6.63 10 5 100 189.49 89.49
    5 points
  40. Thurles 1.45 ANCHORAGE 13/8 £20 win BSP
    5 points
  41. 1st Returns £75 +£25.
    5 points
  42. Won. BSP 4.40. Monthly profit £73.29.
    5 points
  43. placed 28/1 bog +£60 -£1 oct
    5 points
  44. lost good month +£128.60 and a good year +£1286.60 lets hope the next years as good cheers lee
    5 points
  45. Won. BSP 2.72. 51 / 137, lsp + £34.44. Whatever happens from now on, this will show a profit for the flat season (I bet on the flat up to the end of October and then move on to the jumps).
    5 points
  46. Bang on

    Selection Process

    Most systems will use the same information, LTO placing, days since a run, etc etc. Nothing wrong with that as an aid, but the masses use them and it can reduce the price making it difficult to make a profit. I would say that most 'systems', if followed to the letter, will fail over time.... especially if the 'formula' is shared and becomes public knowledge, as this leads to more people finding the selections and the average win price to reduce, making it unviable. My National Hunt system ( I recommend different systems/methods for different disciplines) is still going strong after a good period of time. The very 1st rule is different to any other system I have seen ( and I have seen hundreds). As an example, this month, September, not a busy month for the Jumps, has seen 21 selections, of which 13 have won, at an average price of around 7/2, and a +41pts return to level stakes. This is quite exceptional, even for this system, but it does make good profits regularly. I may start a thread next month for these, as I always post after my bets have been placed. Not all of my bets come from systems, some are found by following trainers in good form (winners not just running to form), an example was my NAP yesterday, a Gillian Boanas runner, a small stable who have had a few winners recently at very good prices (mostly double figs). SMALL STABLES in FORM are definitely worth a look.
    5 points
  47. MCLARKE

    Selection Process

    Most systems have a limited shelf life. They need to be consistently monitored and adjusted.
    5 points
  48. Kerching! event_date time course selection betfair position 2021-09-26 15:00 Curragh Ruling 1.66 1 2021-09-26 16:25 Epsom Downs Danville 1.77 1 2021-09-26 17:50 Ffos Las Chepchik 2.52 1 Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 94.93 74.93 Month bets outlay return profit 8 31 620 703.98 83.98 9 26 520 573.37 53.37
    5 points
  49. 1st. Returns. £236 Bank. Sep +£328
    5 points
  50. Probably my lot for today.
    5 points
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