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Showing content with the highest reputation since 12/07/20 in all areas

  1. It seems crazy to think that a whole year has gone since our beloved admin BillyHills aka Graham Sarson tragically passed away. Graham is still remembered very fondly here. Even now we still hear positive things about him either through personal memories members have shared or members expressing the influence he had on their own lives or this forum itself. On a personal note, I know that Punters Lounge isn't the same without Graham but I think he'd be proud of the legacy he has left. 12 months may have passed but Graham still remains in our hearts and the influence he had on the place you see now is still very much clear. We thought it was only appropriate that we posted some words up one year on so that people can take time to remember Graham and so that his wife Suzy and his family know that we are all still thinking of them during this difficult time. BillyHills may no longer be with us but he is still very much in our memories and in our thoughts. ❤️
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  2. What a lovely post to see. Graham would be proud to know he is remembered. He loved Punters Lounge passionately, and would want everything to carry on and move forward. There is no better legacy than leaving behind work that is built on and taken forward by others for the future. Thank you all for your support and kindness, it is invaluable.
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  3. As in previous years we will be running a tipsters competition for Cheltenham, Tuesday 16th to Friday 19th March. Rules: 1 selection per race throughout the competition Bets settled to £1 level stakes - WIN Only Bets settled at SP Highest accumulative total over the competition wins £60 cash (via PayPal) Runner Up wins £25 and the third place wins £15, all prizes via your PayPal account No edits allowed in selection posts Losses incurred for losers. Replacement selections for NRs can be posted but must be before the first race deadline All Bets must be posted prior to the first race each day (no exceptions) Not compulsory to enter everyday or every race (so if you miss the first day or two you can still take part) Leader-board posted each evening A minimum of 14 bets is required to qualify for any prizes All welcome, good luck.
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  4. A bumper day’s racing with 11 terrestrial TV races to salivate over. To be honest I like many others feel there’s too much racing on this particular Saturday and it seemed to work better last year when the meetings were split over two days. Anyway here’s my thought on the days fare :- York 145 Yet another big field handicap, this one over a mile and the ground at York is likely to be on the slow side with the odd shower forecast. Only two three year olds take on their elders here and at this time of year they receive a healthy 9lb allowance which may swing the favour of Tim Easterby’s Wobwobwob who will appreciate the cut in the ground and looks good each way value. A ready winner here over 7F in May here he was a tad disappointing on very bad ground in the Silver Bowl handicap at Haydock in May when attempting to make all and maybe failing to get home in those conditions. He’s relatively lightly raced against some pretty exposed handicappers and can run well at an each way price. WOBWOBWOB 1 point each way @ 12/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345 Newmarket 205 A valuable 3 year old 7F handicap can go the the proven handicap form horse of Sir Michael Stoute’s in Samoot. She ran a screamer at Royal Ascot when chasing him the easy Irish winner Create Belief in the Sandringham Handicap and despite a 3lb rise in the weights looks sure to go close here with William Buick taking over from Jim Crowley who’s at York to ride Hukum for his retained owners. Chris Wall’s Kingmania is on a hat trick of victories and maybe the biggest danger to the daughter of Dubawi. SAMOOT 2 points win @ 3/1 Bet365 York 220 The Group 3 John Smith’s Silver Cup Stakes is run over the Ebor distance of just short of 1m 6F. Best in at today’s weights is the Roger Varian trained Ebor winner Fujaira Prince but we haven’t seen him this season and preference is for the Owen Burrows trained Hukum who is stepping up to this distance for the first time since last season’s St Leger when he finished 5th to Galileo Chrome. He followed a listed Goodwood win with a decent 3rd beaten 3L by Wonderful Tonight in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot and sports a first time tongue tie today. Jim Crowley had options to ride at three meetings today and it looks highly significant that he travels to Yorkshire to ride Burrows’ flagship horse. Ilaraab was 4 3/4L behind Hukum at Ascot and needs to find some improvement to trouble the selection. Quickthorn is an interesting runner who’s stepping out of top quality handicaps into pattern company and also stepping up in distance. He’s worth a small each way saver. HUKUM 2 points win @ 5/2 Bet365 QUICKTHORN ½ point each way @ 12/1 1/5th 123 Newmarket 240 Charlie Appleby’s lightly raced Dubawi colt Royal Fleet looks a potential group horse in a handicap here and can make his initial mark of 93 laughable by winning this. A winner at Kempton on the polytrack and at Yarmouth when heavily backed on fast ground he should be hard to beat with William Buick in the saddle. Latest Generation is respected following his second place at Sandown last time with Kaheall who’s chasing a four timer worth an honourable mention but fir me this is all about Royal Fleet. ROYAL FLEET 3 points win @ 13/8 BetVictor Ascot 300 The Group 2 Summer Mile will be run on officially soft (good to soft in places) ground as at time of writing with the odd shower forecast. The race has an open look about it with only officially 9lb between the whole field. I think the key piece of form for this race comes from the Listed Midsummer Stakes at Windsor a fortnight ago when Century Dream beat Top Rank by 1 1/2L with the latter now 5lb better off which should bring them closer together. Sir Busker has his ground here and ran well at the Royal meeting to place behind Palace Pier. He looks sure to run well. Softish ground maybe against Haqeeqy and Tilsit but the vote goes to Charlie Appleby’s Al Suhail who hasn’t been seen since flopping in the Dubai Turf at Meydan last March. Gelded since the reports are that he’s working very well and his trainer also sounded fairly bullish when asked about him on RacingTV on Friday afternoon. AL SUHAIL 2 points each way @ 8/1 Bet365 1/5th 123 Newmarket 315 The Group 2 Superlative Stakes is run over 7F and is for 2 year olds only. John And Thady Gosden saddle the likely favourite in Dhabab who brings the best form to the race with his slightly unlucky 6th in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. He’ll appreciate the step up to 7F here and looks the one to beat even though the Coventry form was hardly enhanced by the 2nd and 5th being beaten on Day one of the July meeting all be it not disgraced. As a form man I would normally take substance over promise but sometimes you see a horse win and want to back him or her wherever they run next and Native Trail is very much the case here. Trained by Charlie Appleby he was backed off the boards when winning a Sandown maiden on his debut by 4L (3rd and 4th beaten since) and although this is a big step up this Oasis Dream colt could be anything and I’ll take my chance with him and William Buick. NATIVE TRAIL 2 points win @ 7/2 BetVictor Ascot 335 A very competitive 5F handicap to be run over the straight course on good to soft ground where if the Royal meeting was to be believed there maybe an advantage to be drawn on this near side (high numbers). I do like one of the 5 three year old’s in the field in the shape of Tim Easterby’s Showalong who needs to get his toe in so any further showers would be appreciated but he is drawn on the far side in 4 so will keep stakes small on him. I’ll take one on this side as well with the in form Boundless Power trained by Mick Appleby who comes here having won two of his four starts this season since joining from John James Feane in Ireland on soft ground and is berthed in stall 18 which could be a good draw (especially with the stalls placed on the stands side here). Significantly is the likely favourite having won the 5F 3 year old only handicap at the Royal meeting and looks a threat to all for the Karl Burke team. BOUNDLESS POWER 1 point each way @ 12/1 1William Hill 1/5th 12345 Newmarket 350 A maximum field of 20 go to post for this year’s renewal of the Banbury Cup run over the straight 7F of the July course and as always it looks wide open. William Haggas’s Ametist is a horse who just seems to do enough and just got up last time but a 6lb penalty for that win means he’s 3lb wrong at today’s weights and he’s overlooked for that reason alone. Perotto on the other hand is 5lb well in here carrying just a 5lb penalty for winning the Britannia Handicap at the Royal meeting and despite dropping back a furlong is on my shortlist. Also on that list is the John and Thady Gosden trained Fundamental who is even better in here than Perotto being 6lb well in. There are plenty of others with chances including last year’s winner Motakhayyel who’s back to defend his title off of a 4lb higher mark but I’ll be splitting my bets between Perotto and Fundamental, the only two three years in the field who surprisingly haven’t won this valuable handicap since 1998 (though not a lot have tried). FUNDAMENTAL 1 point each way @ 17/2 Paddy Power 1/5th 12345 PEROTTO 1 point each way @ 5/1 BetVictor 1/5th 12345 York 405 The John Smiths Cup looks as competitive as ever being run over just over 10F with a maximum field of 22 going to post. Favourite is Sir Michael Stoute’s Astro King who ran a stormer when winning his side at Ascot in the Royal Hunt Cup finishing 2nd overall to Real World. I’m not entirely sure a step up to 10F is what he needs and at the prices is opposable. Joseph Tuite’s Surrey Pride is a horse I have a lot of time for and is the selection despite his draw of 24 which is not ideal but has been overcome in the past. Best in a today’s weights is Dawaam although he may have been flattered by his 8th last time in the listed Wolferton Stakes at Ascot. Saeed Bin Suroor’s Bright Start is 2lb well in and is a horse who could go well here. But it’s a small each way bet on Surrey Pride for me with enhanced place terms. SURREY PRIDE 1 point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345 Newmarket 425 This year’s July Cup run over 6F of the July course is a cracker with 19 quality sprinters going to post. Last year’s victor Oxted is back to defend his title that hasn’t been won back to back since Lester Piggott on Right Boy back in 1958/59. He was behind Ed Walker’s Starman first time out at York who’s my main selection here. He literally could be anything having won 4 of his 5 starts with his only defeat coming on very soft ground at Ascot last Champions Day. Fast ground is important to him and he can show his class here today under Tom Marquand having missed Ascot because of the soft ground. Three year olds have a good record in the race winning 4 of the last 6 renewals and tieing 38 a piece with their elders since 1945 and are well represented here by the likes of the supplemented Rohaan, Dragon Symbol and Creative Force (who apparently did a very good piece of work in the week shooting 6L clear of decent workhorse On The Warpath). All three have claims and at a bigger price so does Clive Cox’s Supremacy who had an excuse when bombing out at Ascot in April on his re-appearance (came back with some bad blood results) and his trainer speaks in the same breath of him as his two previous winners Harry Angel and Lethal Attack. So it’s Starman for me with a small each way saver at a big price on Supremacy. STARMAN 2 points win @ 9/2 William Hill SUPREMACY ½ point each way @ 18/1 1/5th 12345 York 440 Winter Power The listed 5F John Smith’s City Walls Stakes completes the day’s action and has a warm favourite in the Tim Easterby trained Winter Power who is best in here at these weights and was very impressive when taking the field apart over course and distance in May in the Weston Listed Stakes storming home 3L clear of his field headed by subsequent Sandown Listed winner Atalis Bay. He raced a bit too freely when only 9th in the Group 1 Kings Stand Stakes at the Royal Meeting and has a major chance today. Que Amoro’s form figures here read 21132 including a runner up in the Nunthorpe last August. On Fast ground she would be a big player but easy ground may not suit and with showers forecast I’ve got to stick with Winter Power. WINTER POWER 3 points win @ 15/8 William Hill
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  5. As in previous years we will be running a tipsters competition for Aintree, Thursday 8th to Saturday 10th April. Rules: 1 selection per race throughout the competition Bets settled to £1 level stakes - WIN Only Bets settled at SP Highest accumulative total over the competition wins £60 cash (via PayPal) Runner Up wins £25 and the third place wins £15, all prizes via your PayPal account No edits allowed in selection posts Losses incurred for losers Replacement selections for NRs can be posted but must be before the first race deadline All Bets must be posted prior to the first race each day (no exceptions) Leader-board posted each evening A minimum of 14 bets is required to qualify for any prizes All welcome, good luck.
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  6. A decent day, finding a couple of winners at 9/2 and 16/1 (20/1 SP) with a tidy daily profit of 19 points. I'll be back next Tuesday late afternoon for my thoughts on the TV races at York although all my daily selections are available between 5 and 6 o'clock on the 'racing tips' tab.
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  7. The 2020 (In 2021) European Championships start on June 11th and concludes with the Final on the 11th July The Punters Lounge will award cash prizes totalling £200 via Paypal. First £80 Second £60 Third £40 Fourth £20 * Deadline for any entries therefore is 8pm on June 11th * ** If any multiple registrations are found to try and manipulate the competition, they will not receive any prizes ** Format 1) Entrants will be required to predict the Correct Score of the 36 group matches 2) Players will also nominate four teams from the competition in order of their main fancy being the No 1 choice Scoring In the group matches, by predicting a correct score you are in effect forecasting 3 main outcomes : : - the actual result, whether or not both teams will score and if the game has under or over 2.5 goals Points will be awarded as follows for all the 36 group matches : 3pts for the correct result of the game (1, X, 2) 1pt for correctly predicting if both teams score (or not) 1pt for correctly predicting under or over 2.5 goals 1pt BONUS for every correct score predicted E.G, Prediction 2-1 - actual result 3-0 = score 4pts (3pts for home win, 1pt for over 2.5) Prediction 0-0 - actual result 0-1 = score 2pts (1pt for under 2.5, 1pt for both teams to score? No!) Prediction 3-1 - actual result 4-2 = score 5pts (3pts for home win, 1pt over 2.5, 1pt both teams to score? Yes!) Prediction 1-3 - actual result 1-3 = score 6pts (3pts for away win, 1pt over 2.5. 1pts both teams to score? Yes!, 1pt correct score) Knock Out Phase 5pts if any of your nominated teams win their group 5pts if any of your nominated teams win a Last 16 match 5pts if any of your nominated teams win a Last 8 match 5pts if any of your nominated teams win a Semi Final match 5pts if any of your nominated teams wins Euro 2020 BONUS 5pts if your number 1 team nominated team wins Euro 2020 Any ties will be decided by how many correct scores predicted, then how many top 4 teams nominated correctly Rules Please post the matches in the order given in the selection thread, easy just to copy and paste. If games are out of order they may be miscalculated. Please use the format given All predictions must be in the same post (before deadline) Only 1 entry accepted per member, any duplicate entries will not count towards prizes. No editing of posts, once you have posted your predictions they will be transferred to the master sheet so I will NOT see any edits. Any mistakes contact me by PM or post on the forum (i.e, if you have missed a game out) Latest table will be published on a regular basis through the tournament ENTER HERE - Good luck Fader
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  8. The Brigadier

    Daily Racing Tips

    I just thought I would alert those that aren't aware that my daily racing tips which since taking over the reigns on November 11th last year are showing a profit of just under £3000. This is to a £20 stake and at advised prices plus BOG if advised with Bet365. They can be found daily from as early as 5 o'clock but usually no later than 6 o'clock under the racing tips banner at the top of this page. You'll see todays tips there but will need to scroll down to view the following days. Just the two selections so far today and they've both won - 8/1 and 6/4.
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  9. One bet and one winner again on Saturday to continue the good run of form. Usually the season has finished by now, but we still have another month to go with the season having started late. We have a full fixture list on Bank Holiday Monday to look forward to in the National League with Sutton v Notts County live on BT on Tuesday tea time. I have 4 bets for Monday. Boreham Wood v Kings Lynn I know Boreham Wood love to draw, but the fact they haven't had to play since last Saturday is key for me because Kings Lynn have played two games since then. They only have a small squad and they are feeling the effects of such a busy period. They did draw 0-0 on Saturday, Maidenhead have been leggy in games as well so it is no surprise that was more of a balanced affair. They have been conceding plenty of goals and although Wood haven't scored in 4 games now they do have goals in them and I suspect they will get a few chances to score here. I am going to take them on the -1 at 6/4. Dagenham & Redbridge v Woking Dagenham have really found their form of late and they are playing really well. They have won their last 4 on the bounce now and compared to earlier in the season they are now scoring goals. They have netted 10 in that run and they will surely fancy their chances of adding a few against a Woking side who are desperate for the season to finish. They have picked up just 1 point in their last 9 games and in their 8 losses they have conceded at least twice in 6 of them. I would make them 1/2 chances so even at a shade of odds on I am happy to play. I am also going to cover the -1 handicap. Maidenhead v Wrexham As I mentioned earlier Maidenhead continuing to look very tired in games and they could struggle to hold of a Wrexham side who need the points to stay in the play-offs. I think the Welsh side will have too much for their hosts here and I am happy to play at 6/4 Stockport v Wealdstone I don't really need to write too much here as Stockport really should be putting at least 3 or 4 past Wealdstone here. They have been conceding goals for fun and Stockport have been scoring them for fun. Granted they only got 1 on Saturday, but going to Halifax is a very different story from hosting Wealdstone. The -2 handicap looks worthy of a play. Boreham Wood -1 2pts @ 6/4 with Betfred Dagenham & Redbridge 4pts @ 10//11 with William Hill Dagenham & Redbridge -1 1pt @ 13/5 with Betfred Wrexham 1pt @ 6/4 with William Hill Stockport -2 2pts @ 7/5 with Betfair
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  10. Not been a great Festive period, but hopefully we can start the new year off to a winning start with these 6. Weymouth v Eastleigh Eastleigh have stopped scoring goals and although they had some good chances on Boxing Day in the reverse fixture they couldn't break the deadlock. Their game against Woking on the box wasn't overly exciting and again ended 0-0. Weymouth came out the wrong side of a 7 goal thriller on Monday against Torquay, but it was certainly a big step in the right direction following from the Eastleigh draw and a win in the FA Trophy against Maidenhead. 5/2 is too big a price for me on a home win. Woking v Aldershot I am going to go with Aldershot again. I did wonder if after winning the big derby game on Boxing Day might have an effect against Yeovil and it clearly did. Back to playing Woking again and I am expecting a better performance and the 5/2 should be around 7/4 for me. Yeovil v Torquay Yeovil were shocking in the reverse fixture on Boxing Day especially in defence and obviously they have won since as mentioned above. Torquay though will fancy their chances and even though they had to work hard to beat Weymouth they are a better team than Yeovil. I think they should be odds on so am happy to take odds against. Hampton & Richmond v Dorking I must admit I thought I got a bit lucky with Dulwich on Monday as Hampton going down to 10 really helped them. Hampton gave it their all in the 2nd half as well and missed a penalty. They deserved a point, but it did continue their poor home form and Dorking did everything but score against them on Boxing Day. I'm surprised Dorking aren't favourites as I think they will get revenge for the Boxing Day defeat. AFC Fylde v Chorley The home side are not in good form going into this. They have only one once in 6 league games and lost 3-1 in the reverse fixture on Boxing Day which Chorley deservedly won. Chorley obviously have a big FA Cup tie to look forward to and when I put them up to beat Peterborough I mentioned they were in a false position which they have been proving in the league. They haven't lost in 9 league games and have won 4 of their last 5. They look value to win this. Kidderminster v Hereford Granted Hereford were helped by a sending off on Boxing Day, but they still came from a goal down and Herford have only lost once in their last 6 league games now. They also beat Fylde in their previous league game. Kiddie are top of the last 10 form table, but they have lost 2 of their last 3 in the league and Hereford look over priced at 3/1. Weymouth 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365 Aldershot 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365 Torquay 2pts @ 23/20 with BetVictor Dorking 2pts @ 17/10 with Betfred Chorley 1pt @ 2/1 with William Hill Hereford 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365
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  11. As in previous years the Naps competition will be taking a break in line with that taken by the BHA. There is no UK or Irish racing on Wednesday, Christmas Eve or Christmas Day. To compensate for the reduced racing days the minimum bets requirement for December will be reduced to 13. May I take this opportunity to wish you all a happy Christmas and a prosperous and healthy new year.
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  12. Day one of the two day Cazzo Derby Festival at Epsom and with a good forecast the ground is likely to be riding on the fast side of good.Here’s my thoughts on the card. Epsom 2.00 The Woodcote Stakes opens the Epsom Derby meeting and can go to the Michael Bell trained Dairerin from an inside berth. He has to prove his effectiveness on a sound surface as both his runs so far have been on good to soft ground but he does have the best piece of form to hand in his neck second to Richard Hannon’s Dukebox with the favourite and subsequent comfortable Chester winner Al Shibli a length and a half further back in third. Oisin Murphy was on board that day for Michael Bell’s colt and is reunited here and has an excellent chance. George Boughey has had a great season with his 2 year olds and his Oscula shouldn’t be dismissed lightly here and can chase the selection home. DAIRERIN 2 points win @ 9/4 Bet365 Epsom 2.35 Favourite Irish Admiral ran well last time at York and is undoubtably the one to beat here but there maybe better each way value in taking local trainer Simon Dow’s entire to cause an upset. His last 12 outings have been on the all weather but he’s always run well here with his course figures reading 17231218 so he should be suited by this tricky turning course. Luke Morris has won on him before and gets the ride here with the main negative the outside draw in 10 meaning he may well have to drop in and come late. He’s won off of 85 before all be it on the all weather and can race here off of a pound lower so is certainly weighted to run well. CORAZAN ESPINADA 1.5 points each way @ 14/1 1/5th 1234 Paddy Power Epsom 3.10 It’s not often you see a horses win a race, let alone a group race as easily as William Haggas’s 4 year old did in the Group 3 Aston Park Stakes at Newbury three weeks ago after which his trainer stated this was his next target. The ground will be a bit faster today but he did impress when winning the John Porter also at Newbury on good ground earlier in the season and he really does look the finished article this year. Jim Crowley knows him well and he looks the one they all have to beat. Aidan O’Brien saddles full brothers Japan and Mogul but it may be Willie Muir & Chris Grassick’s Pyledriver who chases the selection home in this years renewal of the Coronation Cup. AL AASY 3 points win @ 10/11 Bet365 Epsom 3.45 If we go back to the April meeting here and the City And Suburban Handicap run over course and distance we saw Victory Chime come home 1 1/4L clear of Sky Defender with the winner now 4lb higher but the race would have been a whole lot different if Ryan Moore and the David Menuisier trained Blue Cap had managed to find a passage through. It was an unlike Moore ride and the horse literally finished on the bridle. The horse was well supported when heading to York next time where in the trainers words he lost the race before the start when he got very agitated and ran with the choke out the whole way having nothing left to give at the business end. Obviously there’s the chance he may well do the same again but he’s fitted with a hood today and has actually been dropped a pound plus the assistance of champion jock Oisin Murphy. Data Protection like this track having won 2 of his 5 starts here and is an outsider that can out run his odds. BLUE CAP 2 points win @ 3/1 Bet365 Epsom 430 It can be a red letter day for owner Shadwell Stud who can follow up Al Aasy’s Coronation Cup victory with success in this season’s Cazoo Oaks run over the Derby distance of 1m 4F with one of the two Roger Varian trained fillies Zeyaadah. She comes here only 4lb off of the highest rated runner which is Saffron Beach and was very unlikely not to win the Cheshire Oaks a month ago at Chester when not having the clearest of runs and finishing 1L behind Dubai Fortune who re-appears here today on 3lb worse terms. Aidan O’Brien runs five here with likely favourite Santa Barbara appearing to be the best of that quintet though she appeared to struggle with the dip at Newmarket in the 1000 Guineas in which she was 4th and has a few questions to answer especially at her cramped odds. The Musidora at York was a good trial with O’Brien’s Snowfall , ridden here today by Frankie Dettori , making all and stealing a march on his rivals. Back in 3rd that day was Zeyaadah’s stable mate Teona who lost her race when getting upset in the stalls and running with the choke out. She’s hooded today which may help but comes with her quirks by the look of it and it’s Zeyaadah for me although she does have to overcome a potentially tricky draw in stall one. ZEYAADAH 2 points each way @ 11/2 1/5th 1234 Bet365 Epsom 510 The highest rated here by 2lb Archie Watson’s Mehmas colt is the form horse and dropping back to 7F looks the one they all have to beat. Having won a couple of small races on the fibresand at Southwell he stepped up dramatically when making the smart Chindit pull out all the stops when going down by a neck in the Greenham Stakes at Newbury in April over today’s distance of 7F. The winner went on to run a credible 5th in the 2000 Guineas and a reproduction of that effort should suffice to see this Holly Doyle ridden 3 year old bay home safely. MEHMENTO 2 points win @ 6/4 William Hill Epsom 540 Another excellent purchase by that professional outfit fronted by the Dixon brothers The Horsewatchers who paid just 23,000 Guineas for this gelded son of Tertitories last October and have already that all back plus more by winning at Beverley and Goodwood. Latterly in a decent grade 2 contest where he was given an excellent ride from Silvestre De Sousa who rides danger Dulas here. James Doyle is a more than able deputy and he looks good each way value in an open handicap. RHOSCOLYN 1.5 points each way @ 11/2 1/5th 1234 William Hill
    12 points
  13. One of the most frustrating bets I have put up this year was Royal Chant at Worcester 3 weeks ago. I thought he had potential to be well handicapped based on his pointing and hunter chase form and that a wind op could be just what he needed as he had finished weakly in his last two hunter chase at Southwell and Cartmel. He went off 16/1 and was cruising into contention entering the home straight when he was hampered at 4 out and came down. Not only was it frustrating for that bet, but we also didn't find out if the wind op had worked or not. He could just as easily found nothing for pressure as he could have ended up winning the race. I have to back him again in the Worcester opener and although it is a larger field and he is a shorter price, it is still a terrible race he is capable of winning if the op has worked. Given only 2 of these have won over fences before that does sum up what we are dealing with here. Write It Down is one of those and he ran OK when 3rd last time, but he is hardly one to trust. Freddie Darling makes his debut for Peter Bowen. It is also his chasing debut, but he didn't show much in three handicap hurdles for Harry Fry last season. I'd be wary of him, but at the same time you have to take a bit of a leap of faith to back him. Train Hill is making his chasing debut and ran well enough last time over hurdles which was his best effort in 5 starts over hurdles. Yaazaain ran well enough on his chasing debut 3 weeks ago and that was his first run since April so he would be a danger. The biggest danger could be Ardbruce though. He ran really well at Stratford last time given he made a terrible mistake at 3 out. He fell the time before that, but had been a close 2nd 3 starts back. If he can avoid any costly errors he would be my idea of the winner if Royal Chant didn't do it. Ultimately though I have to give Royal Chant another chance to prove the wind op has worked and if it has then he will go very close to winning this. Royal Chant e/w @ 8/1 with Bet365 (15/2 with them to 4 places other bookies going 4 and 5 places as well) In the 4.35 Go On Chez is back out after his win last week and it looks a superb bit of placing. First of all its a hurdle race so he doesn't have to carry a penalty. Secondly it is an amateur riders race so if he wins he won't have to carry a penalty next time either. He is well in as his hurdle mark has gone up 6lbs and his chasing mark went up 11lbs for that win last week. This is a shockingly weak contest and although his hurdle form was poor last season, he clearly is a much improved horse now. Also the brush hurdles here are like mini point-to-point fences anyway so I don't see that being an issue. Toby Wynne is a decent amateur and he takes off 7lbs so he will only have 9-13 to carry. Obviously he's a much shorter price than last week, but if he is in the same form then he ought to win again. Go On Chez @ 6/4 with everyone except Bet365
    11 points
  14. Coral Eclipse Day at Sandown plus the Old Newton Cup at Haydock makes for an interesting 7 race terrestrial TV programme and here’s my weekly look at them. Sandown 1.50 The Coral Charge is run over 5F of the straight track and as always ( it maybe not as prevalent as it once was) the far rail is the preferred draw. Lazuli has to shoulder a 3lb penalty for his win at Newbury over Came From The Dark and drying conditions will suit the former. Arecibo is officially the best horse in the race and comes here on the back of an excellent 2nd in the Kings Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot to Oxted. Keep Busy is also a player although I’m not sure stall 1 will be in his favour as she tends to be a bit slow out if the gate. The value bet for me here is the 3 year old (who incidentally have won three of the last four runnings) Atalis Bay who will have to improve to beat these but looks the pace angle and from stall 4 can get over to the far rail and lead them all a merry dance under Andrea Atzeni who rode him to victory over course and distance in the Scurry Stakes last month. ATALIS BAY 1 point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5 123 Haydock 205 A competitive renewal of the three year old only 1m 6F handicap. Mark Johnstone has won two of the four runnings and saddles three here, all of whom have chances of sorts. Bottom weight and one of my 20 to follow for the season Summers Knight has crept into the handicap and trained by handicap maestro Sir Mark Prescott is another one to keep an eye on going for a hat trick of victories although I did feel he didn’t over excite last time when winning at Bath in a much weaker contest. Likely favourite is Dhushan who’s stepping up a quarter of a mile following his success at Musselburgh last time. He must go well but looks scant value at around 3/1 in such an open race. The horse I like here is the Brian Ellison trained Tashkhan, who has done well since joining his current trainer from Emmet Mullins in April, winning here over 10F on soft ground in May then staying on well to finish 9th in the King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot with a couple of today’s rivals Soapy Stevens and Kondo Isami behind him. He looked as though this longer trip was what he needed and at a double figure price appeals as value with apprentice Harry Russell back in the saddle having won on him here in May. TASHKHAN 1 point each way @ 9/1 ¼ 123 Sandown 225 The Coral Challenge is a competitive one mile handicap which sees last years victor Montatham back to defend his title off of a 9lb higher mark. He’s well berthed in stall 4 but his young jockey Adam Farragher has yet to ride a winner in public from 18 starts and is overlooked for that reason alone. Hugo Palmer’s Acquitted is on my short list and from a favourable low draw under James Doyle should be in the mix. My bet here though is the John & Thady Gosden trained Magical Morning who will be ridden by the wily Italian Frankie Dettori. He made his re-appearance in the Royal Hunt Cup under Dettori when finishing 8th of the 30 runners where he could be spotted going as well as anything on the near side (the race was won by Real World on the far side) two furlongs from home only for match fitness to take its toll and for him to weaken. Stall 11 is not surmountable for this gelded son of Muhaarar as he likes to race prominently and no doubt Dettori will have a plan o; how to get over and race prominently. MAGICAL MORNING 2 points each way @ 13/2 1/5th 1234 Haydock 240 Sometimes you don’t want to be tipping favourites and my first impression was that I wanted to take on the Sir Mark Prescott trained Alpinista but the more I studied the opposition I keep coming back to the favourite who I feel will be hard to beat in the Group 2 Lancashire Oaks run over 1m 4F. She’s the best in here at the weights and has been very consistent over the last twelve months and gamely won at Goodwood on her re-appearance. Three three year olds take her on here with Oaks runner up Mystery Angel the best of that trio and may be the one to chase the favourite home. ALPINISTA 3 points win @ 7/4 Bet365 Sandown 3.00 The Coral Distaff is a listed race run over 1m for 3 year old fillies only. The standout filly here is Statement who will take plenty of beating. Martyn Meade must still be on cloud nine following Lone Eagle’s close second at The Curragh last Saturday in the Irish Derby and his filly here who has shown plenty of form this season in finishing a short head second to Alcohol Free in the Fred Darling, 8th in the 1000 Guineas and 3rd last time out in the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes at Epsom. This represents a drop in class for this daughter of Lawman and she warrants a good bet. The opposition are all a much of a muchness to be honest with possibly Auria having a each way chance. STATEMENT 3 points win @ 9/4 Bet365 Haydock 315 The Old Newton Cup looks as open as ever and a maximum field of 17 will go to post for this £100,000 guaranteed handicap. Longsider has crept into the bottom of the handicap and looks interesting for the Sir Mark Prescott team who have some interesting runners at the Lancashire track today. He’s making his handicap debut but I don’t like his very wide draw of 17 which is never good here over this trip. My short list comprises of Alan King’s Midnights Legacy who is two from three at the track and arrives in fine form having seen off Soto Sizzler who re-opposes today at Epsom last time and Aaddeey who is a lightly raced 4 year old trained by Simon and Ed Crisford at Newmarket. An easy winner at his local track in May he got bogged down in the heavy ground at Royal Ascot and is worth given another chance with useful apprentice Mark Crehan taking over from James Doyle who has a full book of rides at Sandown this afternoon. It’s an open contest but I have a slight preference for Aaddeey and he’s the each way bet here (don’t forget to shop around for those extra places). AADDEEY 2 points each way @ 7/1 1/5th 12345 Boyles Sandown 3.35 This years Coral Eclipse is run over 10F of the Esher track and has attracted a disappointing turnout of only 4 horses. It’s hard to fancy the outsider of the four in El Drama who was miles behind St Marks Basilica in the French Derby last time. The ground is the important factor here as both Addeyb and St Marks Basilica would prefer softer ground. The latter comes here having won three Group 1’s including the French 2000 and Derby but all three of those were gained on soft/heavy ground and he has to prove himself at this level on a sounder surface against his elders for th Emirates time. Addeyb is a terrific horse who has not been out of the first two in his last 11 starts. He is officially the best horse in the race but it is well touted that he needs soft ground. John and Thady Gosden’s Mishriff is proven on all sorts of ground and comes here having won the Saudi Cup and Dubai Sheema Classic amassing the best part of ten million pounds for the two wins! It’s going to be an intriguing race but I just feel that unless the ground were to go very soft that Mishriff who’s been trained for this since Dubai and his trainer has won twice in the last three runnings with Roaring Lion and Enable may win. MISHRIFF 3 points win @ 6/4 Bet365
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  15. Northumberland Plate day supplemented by some quality racing from Newmarket where despite a few showers around the ground appears to likely ride on the fast side. We’ve also got the Irish Derby which this year is run at an earlier time. Here’s my thoughts on the 8 ITV races – Newcastle 145 A tight knit sprint handicap where bets should be kept to a minimum. Ejtilaab landed a gamble at Epsom last time and despite a 4lb rise comes into the equation. The only three year old in the race is James Tate’s Victory Heights who has a good record at the track (2/3) and is also a player though is drawn on the flank. Tim Easterby’s Staxton won this contest two years ago and is a pound lower now. He flopped at York last time for some reason (possibly ground related?) and to me has as good a chance as any. I’ll take him here each way to small stakes. STAXTON 1 point each way @ 12/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345 Newmarket 205 The Simon and Ed Crisford filly Najat was visually very impressive when winning at Thirsk on her debut by 4 1/2L but I’m not sure she beat much that day (the thirds been beaten since) and I would rather be with the proven form of the George Boughey trained Cachet who was so impressive here at the Rowley mile track in May and was certainly not disgraced when 5th in the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot last week beaten 3 1/4L by Sandrine. This represents a drop back in grade and with Nicola Currie, who’s ridden her on both her starts, on top looks good value here. The best outsider may well be Rock Melody who hails from the very capable Kevin Philipport De Foy stable and the form of her win has been franked by the runner up winning since. CACHET 2 points each way @ 6/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234 Newcastle 220 The Group 3 Chipchase Stakes is run over the straight 6F of the North East track. Roger Varian’s Khuzaam’s form figures on turf are 524 whilst on synthetic surfaces is 21122211 which probably shows why he didn’t perform up to his best at Sandown on the green stuff last time when last of 4 behind Palace Pier beaten a long way. He’s the best in here at these weights and back on a surface that suits looks sure to run a big race as long as the drop back in distance is no hinderance to him. He’s never actually raced at 6F in his career starting out at a mile but connections obviously feel he has enough pace for this trip and with Shadwell retained jockey Jim Crowley picking him over Tabdeed and Khaadem is my pick here. Diligent Harry is the only three year old in the race and his form ties in with Rohaan. Clive Cox is a dab hand with sprinters and he can battle it out with Khuzaam with preference marginally for the latter. KHUZAAM 2 points win @ 9/2 BetVictor Newmarket 240 John and Thady Gosden’s 2019 St Leger winner Logician is a confident selection to take this listed Close Brothers Fred Archer Stakes. He was fancied for the Hardwicke Stakes last Saturday but was pulled out at the eleventh hour due to the very soft ground. I’m led to believe his recent work under Martin Harley has suggested that this classy grey is somewhere near back to his best. He had a near death experience following his Leger win and he can finally start to show how good he is. Rab Havlin is in the saddle and rates a good bet. LOGICIAN 4 points win @ 6/4 Bet365 Newcastle 255 The Northumberland Vase Handicap is a consolation race for those who missed out on a place in the Plate and this year has attracted a maximum field of 20. East Asia looks sure to be thereabouts having racked up a hat trick of victories for Ian Williams since coming over from the UAE. They’ve all been on slow turf though with 12 runs on a synthetic surface yielding no wins. Indigo Times on the other hand has won 6 of his 12 runs on the all-weather but he has to defy a career high handicap mark today. Roger Varian’s Zeeband is an interesting runner stepping up to 2 miles for the first time. He’s lightly raced but has no experience of racing on a synthetic surface. The one that I feel will run a very big race is the Venetia William’s trained Bellatrixsa. She was last seen on the level when comfortably winning over course and distance for Michael Dods last October and was subsequently sold at the Horses In Training sales for 80,000 Guineas to go hurdling. She’s won two of her four starts over timber and was not disgraced when runner up to subsequent winner The Wrekin at Warwick in May. She’s attained a handicap mark between the sticks of 122 and can race today off of a flat mark of 77 which to my eyes looks lenient. She smacks a bit like the profile of Venetia William’s recent gambled on Chester Cup consolation race winner Green Book. Connor Beasley is a decent enough jockey booking as is her draw in stall 4. I expect a big each way run from this lightly raced grey filly. BELLATRIXSA (pictured below) 1 ½ points each way @ 12/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 12345 Newmarket 315 If you were take the outsider Apollo One and Tinker Toy out of the race there is officially only 5lb between the other 9 runners here in this Group 3 Close Brothers Criterion Stakes. Kinross bounced back to his best last time (Glorious Journey back in 3rd) at Haydock but he does have to carry a 3lb penalty for that victory here and ideally may need ease in the ground. My fancy is the Richard Hannon trained Motakhayyel who is two from two at the July course here including last years Banbury Cup. He’s flopped twice this season but in the hope that this track and a 7 week break has helped I’ll take him at decent odds under Dane O’Neill. MOTAKHAYYEL 1 point each way @ 9/1 Boyles 1/5th 123 Newcastle 330 This year’s renewal of the Northumberland Plate is as open as ever with top weight Trueshan topping the market at around 5/1. It’s a big ask to win such a handicap off of such a big weight despite the fact that Rhys Clutterbuck is claiming 5lb off of him. Dubious Affair (one for the Matt Hancock supporters maybe!) ran a stormer in the Copper Horse Handicap at Royal Ascot last week and if that hasn’t left it’s mark looks sure to run well stepping up a couple of furlongs here and 4lb well in. The best each way value in my eyes (especially with those firms paying additional places, Skybet, William Hill, Unibet and Betway are all 6 places) lies with Dr Newland’s Galata Bridge who actually ran behind Dubious Affair at Ascot last week finishing 3 1/4L behind having taken a keen hold and forcing the pace. He’s got an extra 2F to travel today which may well suit if given a more conservative ride. I can see him going well each way under Luke Morris and is worth a small ew saver with the main bet going to the Charlie Fellowes trained Dubious Affair who was flying at the end of the 1m 6F race last time and can improve for the step up to 2 miles if this race doesn’t come too soon. DUBIOUS AFFAIR 1 ½ points each way @ 6/1 BetVictor 1/5th 12345 GALATA BRIDGE 1/2 point each way @ 14/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 12345 Curragh 345 The Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby is run over 12F and as always the first factor to look for is the Aidan 0’Brien one. The master of Ballydoyle has won it a record 14 times including 6 of the last 10 runnings and saddles 5 of the 11 runners this season. His main hope and pick of stable jockey Ryan Moore is High Definition who ran with plenty of promise in the Dante when 2L third to rival Hurricane Lane at York in May. He came from a long way back and stepping up in trip here should suit this son of Galileo. Does he warrant being as short as he is? Probably not in my book and although it wouldn’t be a surprise were he to blitz this field I’m happy enough to look elsewhere for some each way value. His York conqueror the Charlie Appleby trained Hurricane Lane fits the bill. He went on from the Dante to run an excellent third in the Epsom Derby and the vibes are that he has thrived since. Maiden Mojo Star finished 3 1/4L ahead of him at Epsom when a 50/1 chance and has to be taken seriously here having been supplemented for the race. Mac Swiney was 3 1/4L behind the selection at Epsom and has to prove he truly stays a mile and a half but at the prices I’ll take the Godolphin colt to turn the tables on Mojo Star and upset the O’Brien battalion. HURRICANE LANE 1 ½ points each way @ 6/1 BetVictor 1/5th 123
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  16. As last year there will be a Christmas Tipsters competition. There is racing on terrestrial TV for 4 days from boxing day onwards so I suggest we use these for the competition. At the moment this gives us 30 races. Rules: 1 selection per race throughout the competition Bets settled to £1 level stakes - WIN Only Bets settled at SP Highest accumulative total over the competition wins £60 cash (via PayPal) Runner Up wins £25 and the third place wins £15, all prizes via your PayPal account No edits allowed in selection posts Losses incurred for losers - this is a change to the previous rule which I believe gave an unfair advantage to those picking long odds Replacement selections for NRs can be posted but must be before the first race deadline All Bets must be posted prior to the first race each day (no exceptions) Not compulsory to enter everyday or every race (so if you miss the first day or two you can still take part) Leader-board posted each evening All welcome, good luck.
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  17. Drew a blank on Tuesday night, but then given the prices there was always going to be a risk of that happening. We have the Truro bet carried over from Tuesday to Saturday and I have 6 other bets in the FA Trophy. They are all big prices apart again apart from one so hopefully we can get some Christmas money. Chesham v Torquay The National League leaders go to Step 3 Chesham and I think they might come unstuck. When Gary Johnson was Cheltenham manager he pretty much totally discarded the FA Trophy and given Torquay are top like Cheltenham I think he will do the same again here with crucial league games coming up over Christmas. Chesham are a good side for their level and are certainly capable of beating Torquay especially if Johnson rests players. 7/1 is too big for me. Morpeth Town v Notts County Granted County made the semi-finals last season, but it is easy to think that County will rest players given the focus on the league. Morpeth had a bye in the end on Tuesday as Blyth pulled out of their fixture, but they won't make things easy for County and will be desperate to pull of the upset. Solihull v Farsley Celtic Solihull may have won on Tuesday, but they were 2nd best and Farsley are a good side on their day. I was impressed with them when they played Gloucester last month when they won 2-1. They are capable of taking advantage if Solihull under perform again. Spennymoor v Southport The one short price bet is Spennymoor who have improved since a change of manager and they are a very good side. Southport are really struggling for form at the moment and the home side look value at around Evens. St Albans v Sutton Two teams having a really good season in their respective leagues. St Albans are yet to lose in the league and had a good 3-0 victory over Cray in the 2nd Round on Tuesday night. Sutton are 2nd in the National League this season so it will be tough, but I do think there is value in the home side. Wrexham v Leamington Leamington have picked up some good results in the league this season and I reckon Wrexham will rest players as the focus for them will very much be on the league. If that happens that makes the 9/2 about an away win attractive. Chesham 1pt @ 7/1 with Bet365 Morpeth 1pt @ 15/2 with BetVictor Farsley Celtic 1pt @ 15/4 with BetVictor Spennymoor 2.5pts @ 21/20 with BetVictor St Albans 1pt @ 11/5 with BetVictor Leamington 1pt @ 9/2 with BetVictor
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  18. 2 winners in midweek which meant we saw a tiny profit. The Marine tip from Tuesday is now on Saturday so we already have one bet and I will be adding 4 more. Chesterfield v Barnet For obvious reasons I am not a big fan of Chesterfield at the moment given they have taken Gloucester's manager and two players (I am more gutted about the players especially Asante than Rowe), but they look to have a great chance to pick up 3 more points here. Amazingly Rowe has managed to keep two clean sheets already given he only got one in over a year at Gloucester and given how poor Barnet have been up front you would give them a fair chance of keeping another one here. Tuesday's goal against Sutton came from Carline's long throws which will cause havoc for defenders and is probably the main reason Rowe wanted him to leave Gloucester. There will be much tougher challenges to come for Chesterfield, but this should be 3 more points to Rowe's team. Dagenham & Redbridge v Altrincham I'm still not convinced by Dagenham and they have only won 3 games in the league with the last of them coming against Weymouth on Tuesday night. Given how badly Weymouth defended on Saturday against Halifax it wasn't a great surprise to see Dagenham score 3, but in general they have struggled for goals so far this season. Altrincham are in a really good run of form at the moment winning 4 of their last 5 including a good win against Wrexham 10 days in their last game. I think they have good chance to win this and certainly look a big price. Ebbsfleet v Havant & Waterlooville Havant going down to 10 men early on in Wednesday's game probably did for them against Slough, but they are a big price to beat Ebbsfleet. Both sides have only lost 2 games in the league this season, but I do think Ebbsfleet have had a pretty kind fixture list on the whole and their last game was on November 21st due to Covid which they lost to Tonbridge. You would imagine both teams will be hoping to be in the play-off picture, but I think Havant have the stronger side and they could easily take advantage of any rustiness in the Ebbsfleet camp. They have only played two away league games so far this season, but last season their away form was superb and it is something to bare in mind here. I can't really work out why the bookies have got them so far apart in the betting. Alfreton v Chorley I am going with Chorley again as they continue their rise up the table. Alfreton have only won once in their last 9 although a draw against Southport last time was a bit of an improvement. They have been leaking goals for fun though and Chorley ought to be good enough to win this one. Marine v Hyde (Same preview as Tuesday night) Having tipped up two of the 4 FA Cup 3rd round Non-League sides I am going to add Marine to the list. As their FA Cup run has showed they are a very strong side for a Step 4 team this season and could easily hold their own in Hyde's league. These two sides wont be playing league football until January at the earliest, but the FA is carrying on with the FA Trophy which is why this is being played. Marine were allowed to train during lockdown because they were still in the FA Cup and they then obviously have had the Havant game as well. That should be to their advantage and Hyde have only won 1 league game out of 6 so far this season. Quite why Marine are 13/5 for this I don't know and they can have more cup success. Chesterfield 2.5pts @ 21/20 with Bet365 Altrincham 1pt @ 21/10 with Bet365 Havant & Waterlooville 1pt @ 23/10 with BetVictor Chorley 2.5pts @ 11/10 with Betway Marine 2pts @ 21/10 with Bet365 if you haven't backed them already after Tuesday
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  19. Hi All, Our esteemed organiser of the Naps Table @MCLARKEhas unfortunately been in hospital over the past few days and is unlikely to be able to update the table until early next week when all being well he'll be back home.
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  20. Thank you for all your kind words. Now out of hospital and recuperating at home. Hopefully all the tables etc will be up to date over the next few days.
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  21. Proud to win such great and well run competition and thanks Mclarke for the time you put into this👍
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  22. It’s not for everyone but it’s Shergar Cup day on Saturday at Ascot after a years absence. Once again I’m spending the day looking as much at weather forecasts as form books! It’s already good to soft at Haydock with more rain to come so I’m looking at the two ITV races there as soft ground whilst Ascot as on the slow side of good. If you are playing at Ascot today make sure that you bet with the few firms that are paying 4 places. Anyway here’s my thoughts on the 9 ITV races on Saturday - Ascot 1250 The 5F Dash starts the Shergar meeting and a typically tough race it is. A case can be made for plenty here and stakes should be kept to a minimum. The last two winners of this contest are back in Tis Marvelous (2018) and Stone Of Destiny (2019). The former is arguably the form horse coming here on the back of a good third at the track a fortnight ago. He ideally though would prefer a better surface. Stone Of Destiny tops the weights and hails from the very much in form yard of Andrew Balding’s. He’s been plying his trade in group races recently and a drop back into handicap company can see him do well although he too wouldn’t want the ground any worse than good to soft. STONE OF DESTINY 1 point each way @ 6/1 1/5 1234 Paddy Power Ascot 125 The Shergar Cup Stayers is run over just short of two miles and a good bet here is the Jane Chapple-Hyam trained Uber Cool who will be ridden by James Doyle. The 7 year old gelding defied a 959 day absence to win at Chester on good to soft ground back in May and has been given a ten week break since to get over that effort. He’s been shunted up 5lb but that may not stop this improving horse who’s won 7 of his 14 career starts on ground varying between good to firm to heavy. Call My Bluff is on a hat trick here following wins at Nottingham and Chester and any further easing of the ground will be in his favour. East Asia is maybe the biggest danger though stepping back up to 2 miles following a good 5th over 1m 6F at Newmarket last time. UBER COOL 3 points win @ 10/3 Bet365 Ascot 200 The Shergar Cup Challenge is run over 12F and with the ground easing my two against the field are Sam Cooke and Spanish Kiss. Preference is for the latter who had alternative entries this weekend in the Stayers race and also at Newmarket. William Knight’s gelding was very impressive when winning at York (from subsequent smart winner Live Your Dream) and at Newmarket before a slightly disappointing 5th over 14F here when the race didn’t pan out for him. He’s a pound lower now and has the assistance of UAE based jockey Tadhg O’Shea. Group One Power finished ahead of Sam Cooke at Chester last time but isn’t certain to confirm that form. Spanish Kiss is a confident selection. SPANISH KISS 2 points each way @ 6/1 1/5th 1234 William Hill Haydock 225 A good third to Guru at Ascot last time, Roger Varian’s Frankel colt may handle the likely soft conditions better than his opponents and win this 1 mile handicap. Royal Mews is an interesting runner trained by the Gosden’s but has only run on the all weather so it’s anyone’s guess how he’ll cope with today’s boggy terrain. I’ll stick with the proven soft ground form of Fantastic Fox to be ridden by the owners retained jockey Silvestre De Sousa. FANTASTIC FOX 2 points win @ 15/8 William Hill Ascot 235 Bear Force One EW The Shergar Cup Mile has filled with ten runners and once again has an open look about the race. There was some decent money around last week for Roger Teal’s Bear Force One at Doncaster when trying 10F for the first time. He may have not stayed or possibly needed that run (his first for 104 days) and like last year can win on his third start of the season with Shergar Cup veteran Hayley Turner in the saddle. Likely favourite is Dance Fever who’s third last time out here over 7F is good form. He appears to have a preference for fast ground though and has been pulled out twice in his career because of the ground easing. BEAR FORCE ONE 1 point each way @ 14/1 1/5th 1234 Newmarket 250 The Group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes has attracted 11 runners this season and can go to the favourite Wild Beauty trained locally by Charlie Appleby for the Godolphin operation. The best 2 year old filly I’ve seen this year is the Gosden’s Inspiral who won well at Sandown and had Wild Beauty 3 1/2L back in third that day. That piece of form alone gives her a winning chance today. She had the Gosden second string Sunstrike a neck away in third and should confirm the form today. That was on fast ground and she had previously won at Haydock and Newbury on soft ground so if the showers did change the ground it wouldn’t worry this Frankel filly who will be ridden by William Buick. Majestic Crown is a maiden winner trained by the very much in form Andrew Balding here last month and stepping up in trip is an interesting runner along with Value Theory who may be the biggest threat to the selection. WILD BEAUTY 2 points win @ 5/2 Bet365 Ascot 310 The Shergar Cup Classic is next and is run over 1m 4F. The likely favourite is yet again a favourite today who wouldn’t want any easing of the ground. Barn Owl is a progressive handicapper trained by Roger Charlton but was pulled out because of the softening ground at Goodwood and with doubts about the ground is worth taking on here. Contact maybe the one to be with to small stakes. He probably didn’t truly get home over 1m 6F last time and the drop in trip here looks ideal. CONTACT 1 points each way @ 6/1 1/5 1234 William Hill Ascot 345 The final race on 2021 Shergar Cup day is the Sprint for three year olds and once again the likely favourite looks ground dependent. Royal Scimitar is the form horse following a good 4th in a hot sprint handicap at the Newmarket July meeting but has twice this season been pulled out because of soft ground and with showers forecast is overlooked here. Ed Walkers’s Popmaster was actually a short head ahead of Royal Scimitar at Newmarket and although worse off at the weights may handle the conditions better and has gone on from that run to win at Doncaster on good to soft ground a week ago. Adam Kirby is in the saddle and he’s the selection here. POPMASTER 2 points win @ 9/2 Bet365 Haydock 410 Warm favourite here is the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Real World who did us a favour at Royal Ascot when winning the Royal Hunt Cup in scintillating fashion and has followed up since in the listed Steventon Stakes at Newbury. He’s smart and will be hard to beat but has only run on a fast surface and with showers forecast and with ground conditions at Haydock always likely to turn quickly I’m happy to look elsewhere although it would not surprise me were he to win this. Euchen Glen won’t mind if the ground softens and is a definite player here despite a 3lb penalty but the one I like here is one of the two three year olds in the race in Andrew Balding’s Foxes Tales who’s stepping up from handicap company to today’s Group 3 Rose Of Lancaster Stakes. Impressive when winning at this trip at Royal Ascot in the Golden Gates Handicap he only went down a head in a very competitive handicap at the Newmarket July meeting and won’t mind the ground as his Ascot win was gained on soft ground. I also think Stormy Antarctic can run well on his favoured ground and is worth a saver bet. FOXES TALES 2 points win @ 9/2 Bet365 STORMY ANTARCTIC 1 point win @ 10/1 Paddy Power
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  23. A tough final day with only 10 players showing a profit for the day. One of these was our winner @cjsmith1972. Congratulations. A very worthy winner, the only player to show a profit on every day of the festival. Well done to @andymacwho holds on to 2nd spot and @Lanky Ladwho grabs 3rd place. Could the prize winners please PM me pay-pal details. Next competition will be the York Ebor meeting.
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  24. Day one of Glorious Goodwood and for once we know what the ground conditions will be. Soft (good to soft in places) is the official call and with thunder storms possible we’re looking for soft ground performers. He’s my thoughts on the 5 ITV races :- 1.50 The 10F Chesterfield Cup Handicap has attracted a maximum field of 18 with low drawn horses favoured due to the turning nature of the track. There’s likely to be a pace burn up on the inside with Majestic Dawn (stall 1), Cockalorum (stall 2) and last years winner Maydanny (stall 5) all wanting to lead. The last named is 12lb higher than last years 5L victory but has to prove he is as effective on soft as he is fast and it wouldn’t be the biggest shock if he was taken out to wait for the Golden Mile on Friday when the ground may have dried out. Majestic Dawn is the one I like, he won last years Cambridgeshire when making all in first time blinkers and has presumably prepped for this valuable handicap when running a credible 3rd at Windsor over a trip too short and without his customary blinkers. Back over 10F on ground he appears to like (he has actually won on heavy ground) and with the blinkers re-applied he holds an excellent chance for Paul and Oliver Cole. Migration was a massive eye catcher in his re-appearance at Salisbury but will need some Buick magic from his wide draw. MAJESTIC DAWN 2 points each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456 2.25 The 7F Vintage Stakes is a Group 2 contest for 2yo’s only. There’s doubts on the ground for both the front pair here with Coventry winner Berkshire Shadow having only run on good to firm. I’m against him not only on the ground but the Coventry form from Royal Ascot has not worked out. 13 horses from that race have run since and only one of them have won. Under a 3lb penalty I’m happy to oppose him and likewise Hannon’s Lusail who’s only run on soft was to rival Angel Bleu at Pontefract when beaten 3 1/4L. It’s a shame there’s not 8 runners here as I do fancy Ralph Beckett’s Angel Bleu who’s the only one of the seven that has proven form on soft. That was at the aforementioned Pontefract in May. He flopped in the Coventry behind Berkshire Shadow on fast ground where he also had his excuses and was seen only last Saturday when running well against the highly thought of Godolphin colt New Science at Ascot .He looked like he was going to win that day until swerving away inside the final furlong and only going down by a length. For a horse that has already comprehensively beaten Lusail and will be ridden by Frankie Dettori he looks massively overpriced when you consider Lusail is a 15/8 shot and Angel Bleu can be backed at 14/1. There’s only 7 runners and I wouldn’t normally play each way with that amount of runners but at that price I am making an exception and am backing him each way 1/4 odds 1-2. ANGEL BLEU 2 points each way @ 12/1 1/4 1-2 Boylesports 300 The Group 2 Lennox Stakes is run over 7F and does have a draw bias as they race into a right hand bend and low drawn horses would be favoured. King George winning trainer Charlie Appleby saddles two here in last years winner Space Blues and the progressive three year old Creative Force. Buick appears to have chosen the former but I think he may have called wrong this time. Like last year Space Blues has a wide draw (he was drawn 10 then and 12 now) but he hasn’t been seen since flopping at Meydan over 6F in March and more importantly appears better suited by fast ground. Stablemate and the ride of James Doyle, Creative Force has proven form on soft ground a decent draw in 2 and although rated officially 6lb inferior to Space Blues looks sure to run a big race. Kinross will like the conditions but here’s drawn on the wide outside which is a negative to me and the ground appears to have gone for track specialist Duke Of Hazzard. CREATIVE FORCE 2 points win @ 3/1 Bet365 335 The Al Shaqab Goodwood Cup is a group 1 contest run over 2 miles and is all about John and Thady Gosden’s superstar stayer Stradivarius. He’s won this race the last four years and is going for a remarkable fifth win. He was given a rare shocking ride from Frankie Dettori in the Ascot Gold Cup when given far too much to do and getting himself into trouble some way out. There’s no doubt he’s the one they all have to beat and despite what connections and some pundits say he won’t mind the ground as his most eye catching victory was on soft ground in last years Ascot Gold Cup when I’ve never seen a horse accelerate away from his field on soft ground over a distance so impressively before. It would be great for the game if he could win again but there is not room for sentiment when gambling and at the prices I’m happy to take him on with Alan King’s stayer Trueshan. He was very impressive when taking his field apart in last years Long Distance Cup on Champions Day at Ascot in October with Stradivarius well beaten. That was on soft ground and that’s obviously the key to this 5 year old gelding. He’s had two outings this season, a good second to Japan in the Ormonde Stakes at Chester giving him 5lb and more recently when attempting to lug a massive weight in the Northumberland Plate without being disgraced in 6th place. Hollie Doyle rides and he looks fair value to beat Stradivarius although I must admit if the veteran wins I’ll be cheering him home as well. TRUESHAN 2 points win @ 9/4 Bet365 410 Ishvara EW A typically tricky to solve 5F handicap completes ITV’s 5 races. Bets should be kept to a minimum as the draw will no doubt play a part here as well. The two favourites King Of Stars and Rewaayat have to conclusively prove that they can handle softish ground and for a small stake I’m looking at a big outsider here who’s career form figures on soft ground read 201220. The horse is Ishvara, trained at Newmarket by Robert Cowell and is visored for the first time. He has to put a couple of moderate runs this season behind him but in the hope the ground and visor spark him up I’ll play to a small each way stake. ISHVARA ½ point each way @ 50/1 1/4 1234 Bet365
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  25. Back to form today !! Two returns from the five selections including a 12/1 (30p R4) winner. A profit of 17.6 points on the day. Wednesdays selections will be up very shortly.
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  26. Standard wise its not the strongest of Saturday’s but we have 8 races on ITV from Newbury, summer jumpers at Market Rasen and the Irish Oaks from The Curragh. The weather’s set fine so we’ll be looking at drying fast ground for all meetings. So here we go with my run through for Saturday:- Newbury 150 The 10F Steventon Stakes is a listed race contested this season by 10 runners. It has an open feel about the race with only 8lb on official ratings covering the entire field although having been with Saeed Bin Suroor’s Real World at Royal Ascot when he annihilated the field on the far side in the Royal Hunt Cup I’m loathe to jump ship now and he would be a small stakes selection here with Marco Ghiani again in the saddle (although he can’t claim here like he did at Ascot as he’s since lost his claim). With future group entries in the Lennox Stakes and Celebration Stakes at Goodwood he looks sure to go close. Movin Time is an interesting runner having been well backed in the Hampton Court Stakes at Ascot when finishing 5th beaten 5L by Mohaafeth and has claims along with the Wolferton Stakes 3rd Solid Stone and 4th Blue Cup. A tight race but preference is for Real World. REAL WORLD 1 1/2 points win @ 4/1 Bet365 Market Rasen 205 The 2 mile Betway Summer Handicap Hurdle has attracted a competitive field of 15 with Nicky Henderson training the current favourite Hooper who’s mopped up his last 5 races, the last three under Ben Ffrench Davis who claims 7lb and retains the ride here. Ffrench Davis has only won three races in his short career all on Hooper and this will be his biggest test to date. The horse I like here is the JP McManus owned, Philip Hobbs trained Camprond. He has a progressive profile in his short hurdles career having not been out of the first three in his 6 starts over timber including placing in a valuable Aintree handicap at the National meeting and the Swinton Handicap at Haydock. He looks excellent each way value today with Tom O’Brien, who’s been in the saddle on his last two starts again on board. CAMPROND 2 points each way @ 4/1 Betfred 1/5th 1234 Newbury 225 A valuable 2 mile handicap with a warm favourite in Zeeband who was a comfortable enough winner of the Northumberland Vase last time having been raised 8lb and has a lot to like here although his price of around 5/2 is a bit short. He’ll be part of my staking plan however as I think he’s the most likely winner. Withhold is a veteran who plundered this race a couple of years ago and can now race off of a 2lb lower mark and is not out of this. Second favourite Rodrigo Diaz has to prove his stamina (although it should really suit him). Margaret Dumont was runner up in the Northumberland Vase to Zeeband and re-opposes here on 5lb better terms for a 2 1/2L beating so also has a chance. Scaramanga arrives here having won twice over hurdles in the spring and is now rated as high as 151 in that sphere compared to a flat mark today of only 86. I’m not sure why the trainer’s daughter Megan Nicholls, who’s my favourite female jockey is not on board as she has been previously with her place taken by Hayley Turner but at an each way price I’ll be backing him as well as Zeeband. ZEEBRAND 2 points win @ 11/4 Paddy Power SCARAMANGA 1 point each way @ 14/1 Bet365 !/4 123 Market Rasen 240 A highly competitive maximum field of 16 go to post for this year’s renewal of the Summer Plate run over 2m 5F 89yds. A case can be made for plenty though the one to beat is the Dr Newland trained Captain Tom Cat who’s unbeaten over fences in three outings at Aintree and twice at Worcester when going off odds on on all three starts. He’s made all for those wins so expect Sam Twiston-Davies, who’s been on board for his hat trick of wins, to force the pace and hopefully get some of these out of their comfort zone early although there are quite a few pace setters in the field who might fancy a piece of the action up front as well. Laura Morgan’s Fire Away is on a hat trick and should run well along with Lord Bryan who’s another that likes to go forward. CAPTAIN TOM CAT 2 points each way @ 9/2 William Hill 1/5th 12345 Newbury 300 2020 winner Tabdeed can follow up here for trainer Owen Burrows and jockey Jim Crowley for owners Shadwell Estate. The best in at today’s weights by 3lb from three others he was a 9/2 winner from the subsequently retired The Tin Man last year and ran a nice race three weeks ago when 4th beaten 2L in the Chipchase Stakes on Northumberland Plate day at Newcastle on the tapeta surface. That should have primed him up nicely for this. Kings Lynn found trouble in both his races at Royal Ascot but should run his usual race today whilst Diligent Harry (who was just ahead of the selection at Newcastle) has to prove he can be as effective on the turf as he’s never actually raced under rules on it. They’re the three obvious players here but my selection has to be Tabdeed to win this for the second successive year. TABDEED 2 points win @ 3/1 Paddy Power Market Rasen 310 The weakest of the three jump races on ITV this afternoon with top weight Giovanni Change trained by the more than capable Yorkshire based handler Mark Walford my fancy here. He has an excellent record at the track winning two of his three starts and was not disgraced when last seen over hurdles when third in a valuable Aintree handicap hurdle in May. He has had a pipe opener on the flat since when not sighted in a Catterick maiden and can bounce back to winning form here in what looks a very winnable contest. GIOVANNI CHANGE 1 point win @ 3/1 Bet365 Curragh 325 This is a no bet race as favourite Snowfall looks a certainty. She won the Epsom Oaks by the biggest distance ever of a Epsom classic and is un-opposable here. That day she had Divinely 18L back in 3rd , La Joconde 33L back in 11th and Willow last beaten some 40L. It’s impossible to see any of that trio turning the form around She’s currently a top,priced 2/7 and I could see her going off a 1/6 chance. Watch and enjoy. Newbury 340 Chipotle is a strong fancy in the days biggest field. The old saying goes the bigger the field the bigger the certainty and I’m hoping that applies here with Eve Johnson-Houghton’s Royal Ascot winner who has everything going for him. High numbers have been the place to be in the past in this Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes run over 5F and a draw of 20 looks ideal especially with pace around him. His only disappointing run came at Sandown on soft ground and with a warm and dry forecast the ground has come right for him. His usual jockey Charlie Bishop is serving a ban so David Probert comes in for the spare ride. There may be 21 rivals but only a couple can seriously be fancied against him. Vintage Clarets hails from the Richard Fahey stable who has won 3 of the last 8 runnings and his 3rd in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot is comparable to Chipotle’s Windsor Castle Stakes win although the Coventry form has yet to be boosted and he has to cope with a drop back a furlong here. Richard Hannon is another trainer who does well in this race with 3 wins in the last 7 years and his Gubbas is the unexposed one at the head of the market that has to be respected. We haven’t seen him since winning at Leicester in April but with his trainers superb record in the race has to be considered. He may be a short price but I’m expecting a winning run from Chipotle and he’s my best bet of the day. CHIPOTLE (pictured below) 3 points win @ 2/1 BetVictor
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  27. More Buck's ran an absolute stinker on Sunday although if you did back Babytaggle without the front two in the betting you did have a winner and he remains one to keep an eye on. The 2.30 at Uttoxeter is a really weak contest where hardly any of them have any credentials which suggests they can win a race. There are two horses here who both come off the back of a maiden point win. I was at Chaddesley Corbett to see That's Me win and it was a very weak contest (the 2nd pulled up next time) which suggests to me that a mark of 92 is too high. To be fair under rules he has been running over shorter and over hurdles so maybe he will improve for 3m and fences as he did when he won last time, but to me he needs to come down the weights even in a weak race like this. The other horse Go On Chez makes much more interest. Again he is going over rules fences for the first time having shown very little over hurdles and shorter trips last year. His 3 runs in points have been good though and although his win was over 2m4f last time I actually think his best run was when he was 2nd at Garthorpe on quick ground in April. The horse who beat him was making his debut and made £45k at the sales and was also giving him 10lbs so I think it was a very good effort. All 3 runs suggest a mark of 78 is one he can win off and in my view they were stronger races than the one That's Me won. He is only 5 so could be finally showing his potential which he wasn't able to do last year. Sometimes in these races something comes from nowhere to win, but outside of Lawtop Legend and Pakie's Dream I couldn't see any dangers to Go On Chez. All bookies apart from Bet365 (who are also shortest price anyway at the time of writing) and BetVictor are going 5 places and it would be disappointing if he wasn't at the very least able to do that. Go On Chez e/w @ 7/1 with William Hill, Betfair, Betfred (5 places)
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  28. Having shown big profits on the last two Saturdays of 29.25 and 35.70 points I’m hoping that the run continues on Saturday. Not the best days racing which is no surprise a week before the Epsom Derby but I can still see some value there and here’s my thoughts on the 8 ITV races. Haydock 1.45 A typically wide open Haydock 6F sprint likely to be run on drying slow ground. Bielsa arrives in form but doesn’t win that often whilst the other favourite Capote’s Dream is in terrific form but is unproven on soft ground. Tim Easterby could be in for a good day and it’s his 7 year old Hyperfocus who I think is worth being with each way (especially with the firms paying extra places). His form figures at the Lancashire course read 11317 and can race here today off of just a 1lb higher mark than his last victory which was a 2L course and distance victory last September. He loves soft ground so I’m hoping conditions don’t dry too quick but at the prices he’s worth an each way punt. HYPERFOCUS 1 1/2 point each way @ 11/1 BetVictor 1/5th 12345 Beverley 2.00 The Hilary Needler is run over 5F of the Yorkshire track and with the stalls on the inside it can be an advantage to be drawn low against the rail. There are 3 newcomers which obviously need monitoring in the market but I’m pretty keen on the Adrian Paul Keatley trained Kyber Crystal who was an unfancied 20/1 poke when making his debut a fortnight ago on bad ground when being the only horse to give winner Ebro River some type of race ending up a length down at the finish with 6L back to the remainder. The winner was an emphatic winner of the National Stakes at Sandown on Thursday night giving the ? form a very solid look indeed. Sean Davis rides and is nicely drawn in stall 4. Hester Prynne was a nice winner on her debut over course and distance but that was gained on good to firm ground and today’s terrain is likely to be totally different. KYBER CRYSTAL 3 points win @ 7/4 William Hill Haydock 2.20 John Quinn’s super fast sprinter won this event last season and with so much speed from the gate will be a tough nut to crack here. At today’s weights he comes out the best horse, arrives in excellent form having won at Chester from King’s Lynn (looks held here) and handles soft conditions - what’s not to like? Tarboosh has a 3lb penalty to shoulder but has ew claims along with a host of others but I’ll stick with Quinn’s speedball under usual pilot Jason Hart who knows him and rides him so well. EL ASTRONAUTE 2 points win @ 9/2 BetVictor Chester 2.40 Boardman has been a revelation in his last two starts. Tim Easterby’s Kingman gelding has bolted up in 7F handicaps at Haydock and York and has a 10lb rise to contend with for his recent success which has been boosted since by the subsequent victory of the 5th home that day Molls Memory last weekend. Rob Hornby who was amongst the winners this week following his return from injury takes over from stable jockey David Allan who’s elected to go to Haydock. He’s fairly drawn in stall 4 and looks set to run a big race. Thirsk winner Another Batt could be the one to give him most to do. BOARDMAN 3 points win @ 5/1 Bet365 Haydock 2.55 I’m not really sure what was going with the Kirsten Rausing owned fillies in this race as the most likely winner at the 6 day stage was Albaflora who has her ground here but was pulled out and Alpinista was left in who is unproven on slow ground! A further twist came when Alpinista was immediately pulled out leading me to believe that there was some clerical error here. In a further twist her Oriental Mystique who was down to run at Sandown last night was also left in and then pulled out of Sandown. Confused? I certainly was especially as I had backed Albaflora ante-post! Anyway they may have the last laugh as David Simcock’s Oriental Mystique who ran her owners Alpinista to a length at Goodwood on her re-appearance looks the most likely winner to my eyes. Cabaletta is not a filly I particularly like and is blinkered for the first time here but is the main danger. ORIENTAL MYSTIQUE 2 points win @ 11/4 Bet365 Beverley 3.10 The Continental Two Year Old Trophy is run over 5F and has attracted a small field of only 6 this time around. Richard Fahey debutant Straits Of Moyle is the unknown quantity in the field and has to be monitored closely in the market and all 5 of his opponents have a chance of sorts. Richard Hannon saddles Robjon and he may well have bumped into one at York last week in the well backed Joe Tuite trained The Organiser who’s Royal Ascot bound. That was on soft ground and he to me is the likeliest winner. ROBJON 2 points win @ 7/1 Bet365 Haydock 3.30 Safe Voyage won this when is was last ran two years ago and his record at the Lancashire track is 4 wins from 5 runs and although he has his ground today two things are against him in my eyes. Firstly a 5lb penalty and secondly he has failed to beat a horse home in both of his last two outings all be it in much better grade than this. With Thanks is the obvious alternative but she comes here following an absence of 209 days and would appreciate the ground even softer. It’s worth giving Clive Cox’s progressive River Nymph a chance not upped into Group company. He comes here fit and 7F on ground with ease in it are his optimum conditions it seems. On official ratings he needs to find 6lb to match the two top rated Safe Voyage and Glorious Journey but he’s on an upward curve and with Adam Kirby in the saddle can run a big race. RIVER NYMPH 1 points each way @ 13/2 Bet365 1/5th 123 Beverley 3.45 The favourite Sibaaq stands out on form here against a bunch of mostly exposed handicappers. He’s been raised only 4lb for his course and distance victory 45 days ago with the form being boosted by the subsequent win of the runner up that day. He’s the only 3 year old in the race and Mark Johnstone’s improver has a major chance with Ben Curtis on board. The one factor which stops me putting him up as a good bet is the ground. It was good to firm for his win and has yet to prove he likes very soft ground so at his skinny odds I’m happy to look elsewhere for a bit of each way value. Richard Fahey’s Duesenberg maybe the one. He’s only run on soft ground twice - winning at Haydock on his racecourse debut as a juvenile and when 3rd at Redcar to Embolden so is obviously well suited by it. We can strike a line through his latest moderate effort at Haydock because of the fast ground and to small stakes he can outrun his double figure odds. DUESENBERG 1 point each way @ 14/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234
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  29. Its attritional conditionals at all meetings tomorrow and we’re looking for real mud larks. Lets hope that all meetings survive. Here’s my early thoughts on Saturday’s 10 ITV races. Goodwood 140 Roger Charlton’s Prince Alex was not disgraced on his re-appearance at Salisbury behind the useful Opera Gift this Ralph Beckett 4 year old looks the most likely winner. He ran up a five timer last season on all types of ground including twice on soft and he still looks like he may have some juice left in his mark of 86. Jason Watson, who’s had better weeks, takes over for the first time and will be hard to beat. It wouldn’t be a surprise if local mudlark Nuits St Georges outruns his double figure odds after flopping at Ascot - he’s better than that. PRINCE ALEX 2 points win @ 2/1 William Hill Haydock 1.55 Favourite Ffion must have a big chance here as a lightly raced David Loughnane 4 year old but preference at the prices is with the Ed Walker, who had a terrific York last week with pattern winners Starman and Primo Bacio, trained Molls Memory who has her conditions to suit now. She shaped well when 5th to impressive York winner Boardman last week and the handicapper has dropped her to 84 which is the mark she won off of at Newbury last backend. The soft ground is the key to here and racing on the softest terrain she’s encountered this season can run a big race under that man Oisin Murphy again. MOLLS MEMORY 3 points each way @ 5/1 1/5th 5 places Skybet Goodwood 210 Favourite Al Zaraqaan is worth taking on here on ground that will be foreign to him having only raced on the all weather and fast ground. He’s opposed by David Simcock’s veteran gelding Desert Encounter who seemed in as good a form as he’s ever been when chasing home the progressive Waldkonig in the Group 3 Gordon Richards Stakes at Sandown last month. He handles any ground and Martin Harley gets to ride him for the first time at a track where his form figures are 212. Simcock was in fine form at the track on Friday with two winners. DESERT ENCOUNTER 2 points win @ 11/4 Bet365 Haydock 225 Postileo is a progressive Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum owned Galileo colt certainly didn’t get the run of the race in the consolation Chester Cup last time when he was hampered at the start and couldn’t get into his stride. He eventually finished runner up to the easy winner Green Book who had the run of the race out in front and re-opposes here on 7lb worse terms for 4 3/4L. The selection has yet to race on a very soft surface although he was a winner at Salisbury on good to soft and the Chester run was on similar ground so hopefully even slower ground won’t inconvenience him. Regular pilot Andrea Atzeni remains at Newmarket so David Egan takes the reigns and should go close for trainer Roger Varian. POSTILEO 2 points win @ 4/1 Boylesports York 2.40 Roger Varian has some good chances around the country today none more so than his consistent 4 year old filly Believe In Love who’s won 5 of her 6 latest starts. She has to carry the burden of a 3lb penalty today for her Group 3 victory in France last October but as long as she’s straight enough (she won after a 139 day break last summer) she’s the form horse and can take this under Ray Dawson from the likes of Mighty Blue and Makawee. BELIEVE IN LOVE 2 points win @ 9/4 William Hill Haydock 300 The Silver Bowl Handicap is a handicap that is also worth following and this years renewal is no different although the size of the field is a bit disappointing. Roger Varian’s Night Of Thunder colt Raadobarg makes his handicap debut here off of what may well be a workable mark of 88. He’ll handle conditions well, having proved his effectiveness for soft ground when bolting up at odds on at Thirsk earlier this month. There are other promising types in the field but none more so than the selection and he can give Jack Mitchell a big handicap victory. RAADOBARG 3 points win @ 11/4 BetVictor Curragh 320 Aidan O’Brien has won the Tattersalls Irish 2000 Guineas a record 11 times and saddles three here today. All 3 raced in the English 2000 Guineas three weeks ago and despite the fact that Ryan Moore appears to have chosen Wembley its Van Gogh who finish 13L ahead of him that day that is my pick. He’s proven on very soft ground as he won the Group 1 Criterium International at Saint Cloud last October on heavy ground. Seamus Heffernan takes the ride and it’ll be no shock were he to confirm his Newmarket form with his stablemates and run a big race here. Lucky Vega is the one to beat who ran so well to finish 3rd in the English 2000 although Jessie Harrington’s colt has to prove he is as useful on soft ground as he is on a faster surface. VAN GOGH 2 points each way @ 6/1 1/5th 1234 Haydock 335 Unbeaten favourite Dragon Symbal looks a sprinter going places and is on a five timer but he’s only raced on the all weather and on good to firm ground. He may turn out to be very good but there’s no way I can be backing him on the likely soggy Haydock turf. Charlie Hills is a dab hand with sprinters and his Muhaarar colt Mujbar is two from two on soft/heavy ground and looks decent value here on his favoured ground. He probably didn’t stay in the Greenham over 7F and the drop back to 6F could be the making of him. MUJBAR 2 points each way @ 8/1 1/5th 123 Paddy Power York 3.50 Copper Knight is a standing dish here at York having won 5 of his 14 starts including at the Dante meeting 9 days ago from the re-appearing Mulzim and Mondammej. He’s sure to go well although the ground is likely to be a lot softer today and preference is for Michael Dodd’s Pendleton who’s likely to turn into a decent sprinter when conditions are ideal this season. He ran a stormer following a 560 day break when just touched off by Fresh at Ascot a fortnight ago and drops a furlong today to the minimum trip. He loves soft ground and as long as he doesn’t bounce will surely be involved in the finish. PENDELTON 2 points each way @ 7/1 1/5th 12345 Haydock 410 John Quinn is a fine trainer of sprinters and saddles two here in his quest to win the Group 2 Temple Stakes. Both of his fillies are rated identically with Liberty Beach currently favoured in the betting but its Keep Busy who may just prevail today. Her form figures on soft or worse read 3142251 and despite not been seen since last year’s Abbaye on Arc De Triomphe day is a progressive sprinter who’s dam Look Busy won this race in 2009 and has the added assistance of Oisin Murphy riding for the very first time. KEEP BUSY 2 points win @ 10/3 Bet365
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  30. Our beautiful baby girl Alba arrived on Monday evening. Mum & Baby both doing very well. Few selections for today... (prices are what I got, not sure what they're now and haven't got time to look sorry)... 0.5pts e/w (1pt total) 1550 Fontainebleau Stanzo 15/2 1.5pt win 1415 Chester Dubai Fountain 2/1 1.5pt win 1545 Chester Uncle Jumbo 13/8 1pt win double 1415 Dubia Fountain 1545 Uncle Jumbo 7/1 1.5pt win double 1545 Uncle Jumbo 1615 Kingofthemidlands 4/1 6.5pts staked in total. Good luck
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  31. Mother earth wins 10/1 !!....that better Back up to +511.00
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  32. The Final Day of this year’s Festival to be run on the New course and unless the Clerk of the course decides to throw some water on the track (I wouldn’t be surprised!) then we should be looking at racing on genuinely good ground. 1.20 Gone are the days of the 30 runner Triumph Hurdles with the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle taking away a lot of the ‘lesser’ candidates but despite only 8 runners we do have a potential cracker on our hands here. Current favourite Zanahiyr has been very impressive in winning all 3 of his starts in Ireland on soft ground, with a particularly fast time at Leopardstown over Christmas (form already been franked this week) and could be very good. Two negatives against him though are possibly the drying ground and the fact that he wears a first time tongue tie. Former stable mate Quilixios has also impressed in winning all 4 of his starts although he too is yet to prove he’s as good on good ground as he is on soft. Alan King is a past master at training these juveniles and can take this with his unbeaten Tritonic. A smart flat performer who was good enough to finish runner up at Royal Ascot, he stepped up from a rather un-impressive hurdles debut at Ascot to show a sparkling turn of foot over the last at Kempton when running away with the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle. Conditions may well favour him ahead of massive danger Zanahiyr and he’s the selection. TRITONIC 2 points win @ 7/2 Bet365 1.55 As always the County Hurdle is very competitive although between them Dan Skelton and Willie Mullins have won the last 6 renewals. Skelton relies upon novice Third Time Lucki and he should run a good race. Mullins is mob handed with 5 entries the best of which may well be the novice Ganapathi who though has only raced on very soft ground. The fancy here though (as always with the firms paying extra places) is Sneezy Foster’s Eclair De Beaufeu. He ran a stormer to finish runner up in last year’s Grand Annual over fences and dropping back to timber here can race off of a 14lb lower mark with Jack Kennedy taking over from claiming jockeys. ECLAIR DE BEAUFEU 1 point EW @ 9/1 Bet365 1/4 odds 123456 2.30 A good turnout for this year’s Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle (or the potato race as some call it!). The drying ground is going to be a major factor here as plenty of the leading contenders have been racing on the deep ground all winter. One exception is the Irish trained Streets Of Doyen, trained by John C McConnell at Stamullen, County Meath. He ran up a good ground four timer in the Autumn, culminating in a course and distance win in October. Given a mid season break presumably to miss the bad ground he was back for his prep race on unsuitable soft ground and over a mile too short in February. That will have teed him up nicely for this and he looks terrific each way value. STREETS OF DOYEN 1 point EW @ 10/1 Bet365 1/5 1234 3.05 The Gold Cup features dual winner Al Boum Photo who surely is the one to beat although on official ratings he’s not that far clear of his rivals and at the prices I’ll take him on. Henry De Bromhead has two big chances with A Plus Tard and Minella Indo. I did originally favour the latter but he’s been ridden throughout his career, including an Albert Bartlett win and RSA 2nd to Champ, by Rachael Blackmore who’s jumped ship to ride A Plus Tard and he has to be the selection here. He does have to prove his stamina over the last two furlongs but he looked good when beating Kemboy and others in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas over 3 miles and I’ll take him to top an excellent week for De Bromhead and Blackmore. A PLUS TARD 2 points win @ 10/3 Boylesports 3.40 This year’s Foxhunters Chase (I’m still calling it that anyway!) will be different to previous renewals with professional jockeys riding due to the ban on amateurs. The last two winners in Hazel Hill and It Came To Pass along with last years runner up Billaway make a formidable Irish challenge but this may go the Paul Nicholls trained Bob And Co who was impressive under today’s jockey Sean Bowen when blitzing his field at Haydock 27 days ago. The one unknown with him however is the ground as all his form has been on deep ground. I’ll take a chance he handles the livelier conditions and with Bowen saying in the week that he felt he needed the Haydock run and has improved since he’s the bet here. Just a word of warning though he was a bit hairy at a couple of the Haydock fences so expect the odd errant jump! His class may get him through mind. BOB AND CO 1 point EW @ 6/1 Boylesports 1/5 1234 4.15 A new addition to the Festival is another Ireland/Willie Mullins benefit race in the Mares Chase! Ireland have 7 of the 11 runners with the 4 British runners priced at 33/1, 33/1,33/1 & 20/1! Elimay is a confident selection to win this for Mullins and Mark Walsh. She’s won 3 of her 4 starts over fences with her only defeat coming against the smart Allaho at Thurles. She was impressive last time when comfortably beating Shattered Love who looks held now and her biggest danger is stable companion Colreevy who has to prove her effectiveness on the drying ground. Mullins has farmed the two mares hurdles races at the Festival over the past decade and I expect the same scenario with this new race. ELIMAY 3 points win @ 5/6 William Hills 4.50 A fiendishly hard Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle to complete the end of a memorable Festival where we’ve seem some very smart performances. Trainer David Pipe would love to win this race named after his father and he saddles three runners, the best of which maybe Martinhal who’s making his handicap debut and is lightly raced. The pick though is the Willie Mullins trained, Sean O’Keefe ridden 5 year old novice Galopin Des Champs who if we can believe his 9 1/4L 6th to Appreciate It and Ballyadam at Leopardstown at the Dublin Racing Festival could be well treated off of 140 on his handicap debut. An outsider that could outrun his big odds is the Nicky Henderson trained Mill Green who ran well to finish 6th last year when the standing start didn’t suit him. He’s worth a small ew saver at a big price. GALOPIN DES CHAMPS 1 point EW @ 7/1 1/5 12345 MILL GREEN 1/2 point EW @ 33/1 Paddy Power 1/5 12345
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  33. well done to all the winners and thanks as always to Mclarke for all the updates and hard work
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  34. It has to go down as one of the most low key racing Saturday’s of the year but there’s still plenty of winners to be found so let’s have a look a the terrestrial TV races in time order. 1.50 Warwick 3m Grade 2 Novices’ Chase A disappointing turnout of only three going to post here and with stamina doubts over Colin Tizzard’s Fiddlerontheroof this should be yet another winner for the prolific winning machine of Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden. He impressed when winning at Newbury last time and despite a 5lb penalty for that victory should be following up here. The third in is Phil Middleton’s Golan Fortune who’s certainly no mug but may have to settle for a minor position. NEXT DESTINATION 2 points win @ 8/11 William Hills 2.05 Market Rasen 2m 125yds Handicap Hurdle A poor turnout and it’s hard to look beyond Alan King’s Edwardstone. He unseated on his chasing debut last time and his trainer feels that it’s a bit late in the season to persevere with fences so is happy to revert to the smaller obstacles with next month’s Betfair Hurdle the target (where currently he has 10-10 but if he wins here will incur a 5lb penalty). He’s a classy sort who ran 6th in last season’s Supreme Hurdle with the five in front of him Shishkin, Abracadbras, Chantry House, Asterion Forlonge and Allart. King has always held him in high esteem and although he wouldn’t wont bottomless ground he should be able to take care of his 4 rivals headed by Jennie Candlish’s Oscars Leader. EDWARDSTONE 2 point win @ 6/5 Bet 365 2.25 Warwick 2m 5f Grade 2 Novices’ Hurdle A decent sized field with several holding claims. The ground is pushing towards heavy and this will be a real slog. Admirel didn’t impress last time and has to carry a 3lb penalty for that victory. Make Me A Believer impressed when winning last time at Cheltenham and has to be a player here. Colin Tizzard is having a season to forget but he can take this with Oscar Elite who’s shown stamina in abundance when winning two novice hurdles at Chepstow on bad ground. He’s the highest rated on official ratings and in a real slog he could be the answer. OSCAR ELITE 1 point each way 5/1 Bet 365 2.40 Market Rasen 2m 7f 16yrds Hurdle This should be fought out by Nicky Henderson’s On The Blind Side and Neil King’s Lil Rockerfeller. The former has to shoulder a 4lb penalty here for his listed handicap hurdle win at Cheletenham in November but comes here on the back of a decent 2nd to McFabulous at Kempton last Saturday. Lil Rockerfeller is a very likeable individual who always seems to run his race but hasn’t actually won for over two years now. Mohaayed is third in the betting but is held by On The Blind Side whilst the others have a bit to find now. ON THE BLIND SIDE 2 points win @ 9/4 Bet 365 3.00 Warwick 3m 5f 54yds Classic Handicap Chase A real test of stamina with 13 declared. Captain Chaos has obviously been laid out for this having finished runner up last season off of a 2lb lower mark. He wore blinkers that day and when subsequently bolting up at Doncaster in the Grimthorpe. He hasn’t worn them in three outings this season but surprise surprise they’re back on here and having been backed from as big as 16/1 earlier in the week should put up a bold bid though lets not forget he couldn’t win this last year from a slightly lower handicap mark. Le Breuil also ran in this last year but lost his chance from the standing start. He’s had his wind tinkered with since his slightly disappointing third in the Becher Chase and along with Red Infantry and Late Romantic have been re-routed here following Catterick’s abandonment on Thursday. Alan King (below) has won this twice in recent years with West End Rocker and Kings d’Argent and is a race he likes to target one at so his 7 year old Notachance looks the most likely winner to me. Raised 7lb for a comfortable Bangor success 66 days ago he’s been given a nice break and trained for this (according to his trainer in this week’s Weekender). NOTACHANCE 1 point each way 9/2 Paddy Power 1/5 odds 1234 3.15 Market Rasen 2m 125yds mares listed NH Flat race The interesting runner here has to be the Willie Mullins trained Grangee who impressed when winning quite a modest bumper 83 days ago at Galway in October. Mullins described her afterwards as being pony sized. Mullins came over with a rare runner away from the Festivals to win this event last year impressively with Panic Attack who subsequently joined David Pipe and she must be given plenty of respect. She will however make the market for the smart filly of Pam Sly’s Eileendover – a granddaughter of Sly’s 1000 Guineas winner Speciosa. She’s looked something special in blitzing two bumpers at Huntingdon (good ground, 29 lengths) and Wetherby (soft ground, 16 lengths). Those races were at 1m 5 1/2f and 1m 4 1/2f so she has to prove her stamina but watching the two victories back she most certainly wasn’t stopping at the end of her races. As a 4 year old she also receives a hefty 11lb from Mullins filly who would have to be way above average to beat Pam Sly’s. EILEENDOVER 2 point win @ 6/4 Bet Victor 3.35 Warwick 3m 1f Handicap Hurdle A competitive renewal of a Pertemps Qualifier where, as I’m sure we’re all aware to qualify for the Final at Cheltenham in March you need to finish in the first six. Come On Teddy has to be a major player here despite his 7lb rise for his Cheltenham victory, that was gained at the chief expense of On The Blind Side who went on to give the useful McFabulous some sort of race at Kempton. David Pipe’s Kepagge has a big reputation to live up to but disappointed me at Cheltenham on his re-appearance. Last season’s Welsh National winner Potters Corner took a handicap hurdle before winning that prestigious chase last season and considering he races here off of 18lb lower than his chase mark he too could be in the shake up. But the one I like is the Fergal O’Brien trained Imperial Alcazar who was a smart staying novice last season and ran in one of the hottest handicap hurdles of the season when 9th in The Betfair Stayers Handicap Hurdle at Haydock won by Main Fact back in November. Dropped a pound for that he’s all about stamina and I expect a much more prominent run today. IMPERIAL ALCAZAR 1 point each way @ 7/1 paddy Power 1/5th odds 1234
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  35. December was very much a month of 2 halves. From the start until the 12th I had 12/18 winners. From the 15th until the end I have had just 4/21 winners. Still most of the losers have just been 1pt selections so there was little damage done to the great profits from the first half and I was still 36pts up on the month from 61.5 staked. The yearly total stands at 197pts staked and 155pts profit.
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  36. I've evolved constantly over the past 10 11 years ......when I first came onto this site about 10 years ago I was doing speed ratings and I think my first post was speed ratings for the 1000 guineas where I tipped blue bunting at 66/1 top rated and he duly won ...winning me 670 in the process.which was pretty special ...I probably spent the next couple years having a fair bit of success with the speed ratings but I realised after a while that there are many factors involved with what makes a horse win on the day .....weight ...distance....conditions ....jockey ...course ..class ..I was watching a documentary on the weather one day and they said they improved the computers weather accuracy from 18% to over 60 % by running 30 or 40 slightly differing scenarios and going with the most likely outcome that the computer predicted overall ....I remember thinking what if I applied that to racing ....so every single day I picked races and for about 12 monthes I taught myself why certain horses won and why horses lost when they were meant to win .....I learnt how to hcap horses ....how to rate class .....I could already speed rate ....so I came up with a spreadsheet that could rate it all ......it worked really well so then I made another that would give preference to class in one rating.....would give weight preference in another.....speed in another and so on .....eventually after about 20 diff spreadsheets or programs and I'm talking hundreds of hours of programming i taught it to basically look at the big picture and take it's best guess at what the horse could should do today based on everything ....and that's just what it does ....its as accurate now as it's ever been so I dont mess with it much but I do sometimes alter variables or maths and run the new thing alongside the old to see if it improves profit etc ........I have to constantly watch things though ....I started getting a run of bad results about 12 months ago and after investigating I realised that an error had occurred in the complicated maths .....was literally a bug that the program had created which inserted a single division sign in the 30 line code and then auto saved it so I have to periodically check the code now and even reload an original copy to make sure these bugs dont occur .....I bet solely for fun ....but the ratings have paid for a couple of holidays over the years and given me so much fun and excitement so I feel all the hard work has been paid off in full and I just trust them now blindly .....I wait to see what the ratings are then just look for the best value .....but I'm always open to new ideas or posibiltys ...sometimes ill see something or an idea will pop into my head and ill try it to see if it works .....in the last 12 monthes I altered the class rating and it seems to have made the ratings more accurate so I left it in ....constantly evolving lol I had this book years ago which had a formula you could do on a calculator ....it was about 7 or 9 stage formula .....I lost the book and couldn't remember the title .....if I could see it again I might try that because it was pretty good at picking winners ....if anyone knows what it is I'd love to know lol
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  37. 2/3 on Saturday with Dulwich and Boreham Wood both winning to keep the profits turning over. Tuesday I have 5 bets and 1 on Wednesday. Barnet v Stockport Barnet were better on Saturday against Wealdstone although Wealdstone still had the better chances to win the game and I just don't see how they can keep Stockport quiet on Tuesday night. Stockport had a very good 2-0 victory at Bromley on Saturday in their 1st league game back after their Covid break. John Rooney is on fire this season and he will fancy his chances against Barnet's shaky defence. Regular followers will know I don't often tip up odds on shots, but even at 19/20 and 10/11 they look a good value bet. Bromley v Yeovil Speaking of Bromley I think they look a good price to beat Yeovil. Bromley had their chances against Stockport and just couldn't finish them. Against a lesser side in Yeovil you would think they would get more joy. I put up Easteligh to beat Yeovil a week ago and they did so with ease as they continue to struggle in the league. Bromley were in good form prior to the Stockport loss and there was nothing in the performance to suggest there will be a dip in form due. They should be around the Even money mark for me. Hartlepool v Kings Lynn I am taking a bit of a flyer here as the price of 9/2 suggests, but I really do think Kings Lynn have a chance here. I mentioned their poor form when opposing them on Saturday and although Kings Lynn have a leaky defence we know Hartlepool are hardly prolific scorers. Even when they do lose they nearly always manage to score at least 1 goal and with Hartlepool only having scored 5 in 8 (3 of them came against Yeovil) I will take a chance that Kings Lynn can outscore their hosts. I would have them around 2/1 myself. Chorley v Guiseley They are clearly aren't going to be 18/1 to win this, but hopefully they can still win for us at 11/10 on Tuesday night. Chorley spoiled the welcome home party for Boston on Saturday when winning 2-0 and there wasn't a great deal wrong with drawing with Curzon last Tuesday as they are useful this season. Guiseley did have a good win against Spennymoor two games ago, but apart from that they have struggled for points. Chorley are in a false position in the league for me and they look a solid bet. Marine v Hyde Having tipped up two of the 4 FA Cup 3rd round Non-League sides I am going to add Marine to the list. As their FA Cup run has showed they are a very strong side for a Step 4 team this season and could easily hold their own in Hyde's league. These two sides wont be playing league football until January at the earliest, but the FA is carrying on with the FA Trophy which is why this is being played. Marine were allowed to train during lockdown because they were still in the FA Cup and they then obviously have had the Havant game as well. That should be to their advantage and Hyde have only won 1 league game out of 6 so far this season. Quite why Marine are 13/5 for this I don't know and they can have more cup success. Havant & Waterlooville v Slough (Wednesday) Havant will be kicking themselves for under performing against Marine in that FA Cup tie and they then followed that up with a poor performance in the league when losing 3-2 to Hemel a week ago. They finally bounced back to their league form prior to the FA Cup loss when beating Chelmsford 3-1 on Saturday and they will fancy their chances of beating an under performing Slough. Slough did manage to stop the rot by coming from 2 down to draw against Chippenham on Saturday, but there were 4 losses on the bounce prior to that draw and they have only managed to beat Bath and Hemel (on the opening day) this season. Havant should have too much for them. Stockport 4pts @ 19/20 with William Hill and Betway Bromley 2pts @ 7/5 with William Hill and Betway Kings Lynn 1pt @ 9/2 with Bet365 Chorley 2.5pts @ 11/10 with William Hill Marine 2pts @ 13/5 with Bet365 Havant & Waterlooville 2.5pts @ 23/20 with William Hill
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  38. Here are the final results of all your 10 week efforts! Not many winning bets for our final week (15) however most of them were 3-figure wins and nearly every winning bet resulted in the player earning a prize money place in the top positions of their league. Bet of the week goes to @nawoo who went half bank on Palace at 18/1 followed by @Marek76 with a 16/1 treble, @chillymonster 11/1 treble and @Chris P 10/1 treble. Massive congratulations to our overall winner @Soi Bongkot who has had 7 winning bets over the 10 weeks and held the number one spot for 8 weeks. Thank you to everyone who played and completed the season. In total 25 players were eliminated for no shows (from 139 starters) so we will be a more select bunch of hardy players looking to stay the course for next season. I'll tag our winners in a separate post.
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  39. Hello all. Some of you may be familiar with my work as it was posted in various locations last season. Nevertheless, operating on the rightful premise that I am a complete stranger here, I am Bachelors Hall/Kotkijet and I write extensively on the matter of juvenile hurdlers. So much so that I have little time remaining to become confident and conversant in other aspects of the sport. I aim to write and present information with clarity, but if anything requires further explanation then please do not hesitate to request elucidation. Juvenile hurdlers, and myself, are set to return to Hexham in ten days time. If the young horses are a fraction as excited as I am then we should be in for a treat. Though ten days before the first race of the season makes the posting of this thread somewhat early, there have already been enough noteworthy ex-French imports, plus the time affords others the opportunity for suggestions before the previews begin. Last season's thread rather evolved in tandem with the available data and resources along with the input of interested readers and I imagine the same will happen with this one. There have not been any sweeping changes since the last preview with the only discernible differences being that I have been closer following the French action, and extending my records to the 2004/05 season. I could have gone back to the start of the millennium but that would have taken several further months so rather than lamenting the inability to create time, we can fittingly call this period the 'Fred Winter Era'. I will attempt to work on a method of quantifying improvements between races by individual horses for individual trainers and so forth by RPR rather than just strike rate, although quite whether I have the time and capacity to pull this off remains to seen so no promises. Finally, it bears emphatically stating that I am not a tipster and nothing I write in this thread is a tip. If others do wish to help others make money then their tips and thoughts are more than welcome. Nevertheless, my own intention is to inform and entertain, and my motivation is a self-rewarding labour of love (which could possibly lead to a labour of employment in some convoluted fashion or another - ideal career would be 'kept man/househusband' but will also consider the fields of breeding, training, sales or research/writing). I look forward to this season's juvenile hurdlers and the thread that it will inspire. I hope that it is a worthy read and heartily encourage others to contribute by any means, particularly with suggestions and criticisms as they will undoubtedly enhance the quality of this project and my own contributions. To begin with, I will post a series of tables full of statistics of varying relevance and interest. For the sake of space and patience, these will be restricted to the top and bottom ten of each category, although if there are any bespoke requests then I will happily endeavour to fulfil same. Several of these tables will feature "improvement rates". This is calculated by taking the seasonal best RPRs of all juvenile hurdlers with two or more runs, and comparing them to their official ratings from the flat in order to ascertain whether or not they have improved for the switch to hurdles. The comparative benchmark figure is thirty-five pounds and while the majority in these tables will fall short, due to those with just two runs skewing the figures, thirty-five pounds is a broadly reliable measure once a juvenile has had the same amount of runs sufficient to earn a mark comparable to its flat rating. Where the results show a clean sweep of "0.00" or "100", the subjects are ranked by order of the amount of relevant opportunities. i.e;- where two sires are on "100" the sire with more runners is placed higher - conversely, where two are on "0.00", the one with more runners is placed lower. One might notice some charts including a "completion rate" and a "clear round rate". These are not one and the same. The former looks at how many horses complete a race from start to finish while the latter looks at those who fail to complete due to a jumping error (refusing, falling or unseating). Many of the tables will likely be unreadable as they appear on this post. Nevertheless, when opened in a new tab, they can be magnified on their hosting site. Sires - For comparison, there are two charts with one taking in the past three seasons, and the other (containing many inactive sires) encompassing the entire period since 2004/05. The figures in the yellow boxes denote the mean averages of the pertinent category. Trainers Jockeys Sources - These are the trainers under whom a juvenile hurdler was kept prior to making the switch to hurdles. Not included are those who kept the same trainer from the flat to their hurdling careers. As such, a horse who was trained under both codes by Brian Ellison, for example, will not be included. However, a horse initially trained by Brian Ellison prior to racing over hurdles for a new trainer will be counted. Grandsires - This looks at the sires of sires of juvenile hurdlers. While established sires can have their merits assessed on their own accords, the information for those having their first crop is less tangible. Nevertheless, according to statistics, some sires are more capable of producing winner producers than others. Looking at this season's crop, Galileo - for whom seventeen of his twenty-one sons to have tried have succeeded in getting winners - could be represented by The Gurkha who has already had scorers over ten furlongs and beyond. On the other hand, Exceed And Excel is not so prolific a grandsire and although Buratino's being a 3/1 to Danehill Dancer (Jeremy, Mastercraftsman, Choisir) might help his credentials, his offspring have been decidedly pacey. Thoroughbred families - For the uninitiated, thoroughbred families essentially denote a common maternal ancestor. A comprehensive summary can be found here on tbheritage.com. Given how these families were allocated at the turn of the twentieth century, they have largely become so diluted that the information is mostly white noise although I imagine that its architect Bruce Lowe will be pleased that variants of family 1 are still performing admirably. Of the families with more than hundred juveniles since 2004/05, 1-n, represented last season by six winners including Zoffanien and Hiconic, has a winner to runner rate of 23.30% whereas 14-f, without a winner since 2017, has one of just 8.82%. While the usefulness of this attribute is dubious, they are still a source of trivial amusement if nothing else. Crosses - Continuing the theme of questionable usefulness, I have also had a look at sire/damsire crosses along with sire/family crosses. While these factors have more potential to carry weight, the lack of quantity largely restricts the usefulness of these findings as only four sire/damsire crosses appear more than ten times since 2004/05 with the highest number of sire/family crosses being eight. Dosage Index - A less heralded breeding factor, but one with discernible statistical trends, is the dosage index. Though often limited and far from devoid of imperfections, these charts show a definite correlation between the dosage index, RPRs and strike rates. The short of it is low = better as it is designed to indicate a young horse's proclivity towards stamina. Though this might become less critical as a horse is developed since stamina can be trained, it is crucial to the success of a young hurdler. I have also made my first attempts at a chart so apologies for any concerned with graphic design for my affront to same. Dosages when grouped by DI Dosages when grouped by RPR Racecourses Translation of flat ability - There is a myth that pervades according to which flat form can be defenestrated when it comes to juvenile hurdling. However, this chart demonstrates in no uncertain terms that not only is there a strong relationship between flat ability and hurdling success, but also one between flat ability and the ability to jump safely. Source and experience - The combined figures of 1-61 and 62+ do not match the total flat as the numbers are official ratings. Triumph Hurdle - Since many people will only watch one juvenile hurdle per season, here is a chart for the trends of such race including the date the participants made their British/Irish hurdling debut, their source (numbers denote a horse who ran in Britain or Ireland on the flat with those above "0" showing their official rating) and the trial races they contested during the campaign. Shifting attentions from the past and towards the future, here are six horses registered as exported on the France-Galop site who are likely to jump hurdles in Britain and Ireland this season. The ratings are ones which I have created for myself. As I have never previously done them for French hurdlers, they should be approached with caution. Similar to the ones I did for British and Irish races, I almost never amended them for collateral form and treated the performances "as is" on the day. As such, while subsequent collateral form would most likely place Matterhorn ahead of Porticello, regardless of theoretical potential for same, the former has not yet physically proven that his improvement followed that of Paradiso. Furthermore, the top four have had just the one race each so nothing ought to be taken as gospel. The heading figures read as follows;- Name, colour, sex, trainer, runs-wins-places on either code, official ratings and RPRs where applicable, my rating underlined, previous trainer, cost if known/sold in training. Sire, (Damsire), {family number}, (Dosage Index), degree of relation (2/1 = second dam is first dam of = Matterhorn is Turgot's nephew), notable jumps relation, most notable performance. Matterhorn bg Paul Nicholls j1-0-1 132 (Gabriel Leenders) Martaline (Turgeon){1-x}(0.67) 2/1 Turgot 1st Prix La Haye Jousselin (G1), Auteuil 2004 https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/matterhorn-3 By Martaline (We Have A Dream, Beaumec de Houelle, Kotkikova, Malaya) Matterhorn is a nephew of top staying chaser Turgot but is also related to useful juveniles. His dam won in the division, uncle Pontvallain finished third in the Prix Cambaceres (the championship contest for three-year-olds) while Sept Verites (2/2) and Dans La Foulee (2/3) made winning debuts in the Prix Wild Monarch. Recent graduates of the contest include Busselton, Footpad, Bivouac, Dolas and Botox Has while top-class animals such as Long Run, Golden Silver, Remember Rose, Hinterland and Le Grand Luce count themselves among the longer term introductions. During this season's renewal, Matterhorn was in the process of running a big race and certainly held a winning chance before going through the top of the last and dramatically losing his hind legs on landing. Conspicuously green on his racecourse debut, Matterhorn was keen early and making minor errors, but was able to settle better once getting a lead. He moved stylishly back into the lead turning for home and looked full of running approaching the final hurdle. The incident gave the initiative to Paradiso, who was representing a David Cottin yard which has been dominant in the division this season, while Matterhorn ran into third place after regaining his bearings. The form of the race is taking a solid shape as Paradiso posted the strongest performance of the season to date when running out a most decisive winner in Sunday's Prix Stanley. Sixth placed Gaelic Warrior finished third next time at the venue while eigth placed Issam subsequently won a Lyon contest by twelve lengths. Former trainer Gabriel Leenders was responsible for five juvenile recruits of which three were winners (Teahupoo, Paros, Samarrive) while Haut En Couleurs placed third in both the Triumph and at Punchestown. Matterhorn's new trainer Paul Nicholls, has taken thirteen juveniles out of the Prix Wild Monarch, twelve of them winning during their first term at Manor Farm stables including Dolos, Hinterland and San Benedeto. The unpolished Matterhorn has considerable scope and potential and is in the right hands to make a stong impact on the sphere in the upcoming season. Porticello bg Gary Moore j1-1-0 132 (David Cottin) Sholokhov (Chichicastenango){31}(0.87) 2/1 Worldbest 3rd Grand Prix d'Automne (G1), Auteuil 2009 https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/porticello Francois-Marie Cottin has sent the likes of Sanctuaire, Napolitain and Star de Mohaison across the channel over the years. Cousin David has yet to match those levels as an exporter although Busselton was a creditable sort last term and this season has seen Mr Cottin take the French three-year-old division by storm with a team including leading colt Paradiso, and leading filly Matilda du Berlais. He also saddled the first two home in the Prix Grandak prior to the pair crossing the channel for pastures new. The Prix Grandak is another debutant contest with a rich history, being the launchpad of domestic stars Saint des Saints, Bonito Du Berlais, Beaumec De Houelle, On The Go and Storm Of Saintly, as well as talented exports in Frodon, Far West, We Have A Dream and Quel Destin. This year's edition was taken by Porticello who having tracked the leaders throughout, made his challenge in a steady rather than explosive fashion and after taking the lead at the last, managed to pull a couple of lengths clear on the run-in. Apart from blundering at the fifth, he jumped well enough for a debutant and his style of racing was in keeping with his pedigree being a Sholokhov nephew of Grand Prix d'Automne third Worldbest. Notwithstanding, there is some precocity in his pedigree as his dam is a half-sister to graded placed juvenile Orcantara and the aunt of Prix Cambaceres runner-up Invicter. Furthermore, while Sholokhov is a Gold Cup winning sire, he is also responsible for Shishkin as well as classy youngsters Msassa, Esmondo and the aforementioned Invicter. The provisional Grandak form is looking reasonable with third placed Imprenable winning next time and fifth placed Coup de Coeur running respectably in decent company, although collateral form does place Porticello behind Matterhorn at this juncture. Notwithstanding, it should still be enough to make him competitive in good races and Gary Moore could have another useful recruit on his hands. Magistrato bg Paul Nicholls j1-0-1 129 (David Cottin) Kapgarde (Poliglote){3-d}(1.00) 1/0 Franche Alliance 2nd Prix Beugnot (L,63.0), Enghien 2015 https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/magistrato Runner-up to Porticello in the Prix Grandak, Magistrato is another addition to the Paul Nicholls ranks and is following in the hoofprints of Far West, Frodon, Quel Destin, Qualando and Marracudja who all started in the same contest. Fresh on his racecourse debut, Magistrato soon established a clear lead which he would to the final flight where he was headed by Porticello. Jumping better overall than the winner, he done more by a lack of pace than fatigue and still managed to increase his advantage of the subsequent winner in third. A son of Kapgarde, his dam showed useful form over nineteen furlongs on heavy ground and is herself a half-sister to La Bague Au Roi and Kaysersberg. As such, the 3000 meters at Auteul was unlikely to suit and while it is to his credit that he performed satisfactorily, it perhaps indicates that he would be a more longer term prospect. Nevertheless, there ought to be races won during his first season in Great Britain and he could be of particular interest with give in the ground. Moulins Clermont bg Gary Moore j1-0-1 121 (Bertrand Lefevre) €70,000 Free Port Lux (Ungaro){3-o}(0.67) 0.5 Paris Clermont 1st 4300 Conditions Chase, Aix-les-Bains 2016 https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/moulins-clermont It is a sign of the times, probably compounded by events of the past year, that this next entry was purchased not privately or at a public auction, but on an online shop. For €70,000, Moulins Clermont left Bertrand Lefevre to become another recruit to the Gary Moore ranks. Continuing the prototype theme, Moulins Clermont represents the first crop of jumpers by Group Two winner Free Port Lux - a giant of a horse at 1.70m who despite being by Oasis Dream, has a stamina laden pedigree and has already produced an eighteen length winner at Auteuil. Moulins Clermont's sole start came in the Prix du Brevent at Compiègne which is a reaonable conditions race that has been contested by the likes of Adrien Du Pont, Ibis Du Rheu, Cristal Bonus. Held up in midfield, Moulins Clermont had a propensity to get tight at his hurdles but rarely caused alarm. However, despite the race being the slowest held at the venue this term, he still looked short of pace and was doing his best work towards the end of the contest. Though clearly not devoid of ability, Moulins Clermont would, for the immediate future, appear to be better suited to a slog around Fontwell as opposed to something like the Adonis. Brainstorm bc Sophie Leech? j3-1-1 106 (Guillaume Macaire > Francois-Marie Cottin) €16,777 No Risk At All (Hawk Wing){12-g}(1.00) 2/1 Top Notch 1st 1965 Chase (G2), Ascot 2017 https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/brainstorm-2 Guillaume Macaire has, this century, won the Prix Rush with Robin des Champs, Balko, Esmondo and Choeur du Nord, while Master Dino, Goliath du Berlais and Twist Magic are just a few of the talents also introduced in the contest. His sole representative this season was Brainstorm - a half-brother to Yes Indeed and Never Adapt, and a nephew of the sadly passed Top Notch. Sent off the third favourite, Brainstorm was fairly keen in the early stages, but soon settled into a nice rhythm in the front and jumped and travelled kindly. That is until he got to the seventh. The camera angle was not the best, but he appeared to hit it at an incorrect stride, reach for the hurdle and blunder terribly. This error cost him the lead and most likely any chance in the contest. Reaching again at the next, he faded through the field on the turn for home, jumped big at two out and steady at the last. Sensibly allowed to coast home in his own time from some way out, Brainstorm appeared to be the horse to take out of the contest. However, his next appearance came in a Compiègne claimer in which he was finished a six length third before being sold for €16,777. He was next seen in another claimer at Fontainebleau where, held up, he jumped safely but without any confidence. Nevertheless, he moved easily into the race approaching the last from where, he ran out a fairly comfortable two-and-a-half length winner. Afterwards, he was sold again for €16,777 of James Finch's money. Reportedly exported to Great Britain, it could be presumed that Brainstorm is now with Sophie Leech although this is speculation based on conjecture. Brainstorm's form is better than that of the standard juvenile hurdler and while he would have to improve considerably to match his initial reputation, he is capable of winning average races. Koi Dodville bc David Pipe f7-1-3 (33.5/73.7) 74 (Ludovic Gadbin) €14,506 French Fifteen (Aussie Rules){5-h}(3.00) 3/2 Uriah Heep 1st 2m Novices' Handicap Chase (126), Ludlow 2014 https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/koi-dodville David Pipe did something quite remarkable last term by sourcing a leading juvenile from a flat claimer. Such types win a credible amount of races in the sphere, although rarely are they any better than average so Adagio is very much an exception in this regard. French Fifteen has produced three winning juveniles in France and was also responsible for the promising French Aseel. Furthermore, all three juveniles to have made the switch from Gadbin to Pipe (Night Edition, Paricolor, To Fly Free) have been winners. While it would be asking a lot of Koi Dodville to come close to matching Adagio's achievements (the latter being €10,000 more expensive and almost a stone superior), he would still be of interest in ordinary contests.
    9 points
  40. What a fantastic effort by MCLARKE to get the naps tables almost back up to date after his hospital stay. Very much appreciated by all of us.
    9 points
  41. Cheltenham’s three day Paddy Power meeting begins with four races on ITV and here’s my analysis on that quartet. Ground wise I think we’ll be looking at a surface on the slow side of good with watering having taking place earlier in the week and just the possibility of a passing shower. Cheltenham 1.45 An interesting 2 miles handicap chase features last years winner and today’s top weight Magic Saint. He probably needed his reappearance run at Wetherby and a 2lb drop in the weights means he can race off of the exact same mark as last year. 5lb conditional Brian Carver ride him last year and this year it’s the turn of 5lb conditional Angus Cheleda. He must go well. Stolen Silver appeared to improve for the change of stables when winning a 3 runner handicap at Market Rasen and Sam Thomas’s latest acquisition will presumably adopt front running tactics here which were seen to great effect that day. Kap Auteuil comes here on a roll having won his last four races for rookie trainer Toby Lawes and shouldn’t be dismissed whilst the best outsider may well be Bun Dorian who’s extremely well handicapped on his back form and has had his wind tinkered with since last seen. Slight preference is for Stolen Silver over Magic Saint and he’s the selection. STOLEN SILVER 2 points win @ 7/2 William Hill Cheltenham 2.20 A disappointing turnout of only two go to post for this 2m 4F novices’ Chase. Hot favourite is the chasing debutant of Dan Skelton’s My Drogo who was a very smart novice hurdler last season winning all 4 of his hurdles including two grade 2’s and a grade one at the Aintree National Festival. His sole opponent comes from Ireland and has plenty of fencing experience although has to carry a 8lb penalty here which isn’t going to make it easy against My Drogo. Gin On Lime has won 4 of his 5 chase starts this year on summer ground. He’s no mug and should give the favourite a stern challenge but I do feel if My Drogo jumps he should be winning this. He’ll be at prohibitive odds so it’s a no play race for me. Cheltenham 2.55 A cross country handicap chase run over 3m 6F with an open look about it this year. Surprisingly there’s very little previous course form here with Potters Corner who finished 3rd last year and 2019 winner Diesel D’Allier the pick if you follow course form. The latter incidentally is having his first run for new trainer Richard J Bandey. I’ve had some success in these races over the years with the French challengers but they too are conspicuous by their absence this season. The class horse is the top weight Balko Des Flos for the Henry De Bromhead team who unseated over this course on his only spin round last March at the Festival when only a 6/1 chance. He’s had a nice pipe opener over hurdler and was a 100/1 runner up in last years Grand National to Minella Times. He’s been ridden by Rachael Blackmore and should run well. Fellow Irish challenger Freewheeling Dylan is interesting in that he won the Irish National at 150/1 last Spring and could run well also. Not a race that really inspires me this year and I’ll keep stakes low and play Balko Des Flos. BALKO DES FLOS 1 point win @ 4/1 William Hill Cheltenham 3.30 7 go to post for this grade 2 2m 5F novices hurdle with the favourite hailing from the Paul Nicholls stable in Gelino Bello. He was mightily impressive when winning on his hurdles debut at Aintree. He looks smart but is priced accordingly and I feel there maybe better value elsewhere. The Irish send three over and the money over the last 48 hours for the Charles Byrnes trained Blazing Khal looks significant. He also impressed on his hurdles bow when winning a maiden hurdle at Galway in October and is maybe the way to go here. Gordon Elliott sends over the penalised Off Your Rocco who won a listed novice hurdle at Limerick last time out which is the best piece of form in the race but the 5lb penalty may negate that. I like Gelino Bello but at the prices it’s Blazing Khal for me. BLAZING KHAL 2 points win @ 5/1 William Hill
    9 points
  42. We’re getting towards the end of the flat season now and Saturday’s racing very much has an end of season feel. The ground is drying but good at Newmarket and similarly drying but softer at York. Here’s my thoughts on the 7 ITV races :- Newmarket 1.45 The 10F Zetland Stakes is a Group 3 contest for two year olds and has attracted a field of nine this year. Aidan O’Brien runs Bluegrass - a winner of A Curragh maiden in August and although stepping up in grade here shouldn’t be totally dismissed. His son Donnacha saddles Unconquerable who defied his 33/1 odds when finishing 3rd in the Royal Lodge over a mile a fortnight ago and should appreciate the step up in trip. He too has a chance but both may struggle to beat the Godolphin first string Hafit who cost a mere 2.1 million as a yearling. A winner on his debut on the July course he stepped up on that run when chasing home a well thought of Kevin Ryan trained colt at Haydock a month ago. He’ll appreciate the step up to 10F today and the reports are that he went clear of his stable mate and rival today Goldspur in a gallop earlier this week. William Buick has chosen him here and he has a big chance. HAFIT 3 points win @ 2/1 Bet365 York 2.02 The 6F Rockingham Stakes is a listed race for two year olds run over 6F and has quite an open looks about it this year. Officially the best in are George Boughey’s Hellomydarlin and William Haggas’s Canonized. Both have had plenty of racing this season and it may pay to look beyond the pair and find something that may be more progressive. That one maybe Richard Hannon’s Witch Hunter who was unlucky not take the scalp of the 101 rated Ribhi at Salisbury last time when he was denied a clear run inside the final furlong. A reproduction of that run would put him in back in contention with the two aforementioned 100 rated horses and he maybe the value bet small each way. WITCH HUNTER 1 point each way @ 5/1 1/5th 1234 William Hill Newmarket 2.20 Charlie Appleby could be in for a big day with his juveniles at Newmarket today and his Coroebus will be hard to beat in this Group 3 Emirates Autumn Stakes run over a mile. He was matched for plenty at 1.01 when scooting clear with a couple to run in the Royal Lodge a fortnight ago over course and distance but was reeled in late on by Royal Patronage who got up in the final stride. He’ll no doubt be ridden with a bit more restraint by William Buick today but remains an exciting prospect and is the most likings winner here. Aidan O’Brien can never be dismissed in these races and he saddles three here with the pick being United Nations, a Naas maiden winner who is the pick of Ryan Moore. A lively outsider who is held in high esteem and worked well apparently in the week is the Frankie Dettori ridden Dirtyoldtown who I’m told won’t disgrace himself but this should be going to Coroebus. COROEBUS 3 points win @ 4/5 William Hills York 2.37 11 go to post for this 10F class 2 handicap with the likely favourite Bay Bridge trained by Sir Michael Stoute coming here on the back of a 147 day break and a 15lb rise in the weights. He looks worth taking on despite his connections. Second in is the John and Thady Gosden trained Faisal who’s latest form behind Cambridgeshire runner up Anmaat looks decent form now. The problem with him is he’s only raced on fast or artificial surfaces and there’s little soft ground form in his bloodline as well. I’m interested in the Roger Fell trained Cockalorum who’s disappointing effort at Ayr last time can be put down to the fast ground and the fact that this habitual front runner wasn’t able to lead. He had previously been a model of consistency hitting the frame in decent handicaps at Goodwood and twice here in the John Smiths Cup and Skybet Handicap off of the same mark as today’s. I’ll be backing him each way. COCKALORUM 1 point each way @ 14/1 1/5th 1234 William Hill Newmarket 2.55 This years Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes has attracted a field of 8 with another Charlie Appleby/William Buick favourite in Native Trail who will be hard to beat and could easily be the last leg of a winning Godolphin treble in the three Group two year old races today. He looked special when shooting 3 1/2L clear of his field headed by the previously unbeaten Point Lonsdale in the Group 1 National Stakes at the Curragh last month and with conditions to suit should confirm himself as the best two year old colt around by winning this. Ger Lyons sends over his Kodiac colt Straight Answer who is unbeaten in two starts and has to be respected although this is a big step up from listed company to Group 1 whilst Roger Varian saddles Bayside Bay who impressed when beating Reach For The Moon in the Group 2 Champagne Stakes last time at Doncaster and appeals as the biggest danger. I can’t resist a small each way play though on the Hugo Palmer trained Dubawi Legend who was so impressive on his debut at Doncaster and although disappointing subsequently in the Acomb was found to be wrong after that run and at a big price I will back him small each way though the favourite as stated earlier will be tough to beat. DUBAWI LEGEND 1/2 point each way @ 16/1 1/5 123 Paddy Power York 3.15 A maximum field of 22 go to post for this 6F sprint handicap which as one could imagine at this time of year is wide open. Gulliver has won the last two renewals and if stall 21 doesn’t hinder his chances should be thereabouts whilst York special Copper Knight has obvious claims along with Mondammej who’s form ties in together. I like Jedd O’Keefe’s Air Raid at a big price here. It can’t be soft enough for him so a shower or two wouldn’t go amiss to be honest but he’s fallen back onto his last winning mark and has had wind surgery since we last saw him. I think he’s worth chancing at a big price. AIR RAID 1 point each way @ 33/1 1/5th 123456 Paddy Power Newmarket 3.35 A maximum turnout of 34 go to post for this famous handicap The Cesarewitch which is famous for starting in one county and finishing in another. Willie Mullins has won the last three renewals and saddles five including last year’s winner Great White Shark who has to race here off of a 10lb higher mark and doesn’t come into the race in the same form as last year. Likely favourite is M C Muldoon who was an unlucky loser of the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting and although 4lb higher stays well and has the assistance of Ryan Moore. He should be on anyone’s short list, as should the Nicky Henderson trained Buzz. He’s a very interesting runner who hasn’t been seen on the flat since September 2019 when trained by Hughie Morrison. He’s had a highly successful national Hunt career since with Henderson and has steadily risen through the ranks to warrant being called a serious Champion Hurdle contender with an official mark of 155. He has been away to Newbury for a racecourse gallop and Henderson has done well in this race before. He looks a very well handicapped horse and if he stays (he actually only ran up to 1m 4F on the flat when with Morrison) he should run a big race under Oisin Murphy from stall 3. The draw is interesting as the last three winners have all exited from a high number but I have always favoured a low number as there is a dog leg turn after a couple of furlongs which if forced wide can add yardage onto your journey. Buzz will be my main play although I can’t resist a small each way bet on the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Live Your Dream who did us a favour when winning in the Summer on the July course. He bumped into a plot horse of Charlie Byrne’s in Turnpike Trip in the Cesarewitch trial last time over course and distance finishing an honourable 2L runner up with daylight back to the remainder. He can race off of the same handicap mark here despite being put up 4lb by the assessor making him the best handicapped horse in the field. The icing on the cake is the booking of young apprentice Adam Farragher who is attached to the William Haggas stable and scored a remarkable four timer at Chester last Saturday on his first visit there. He has to come out of stall 35 so I’m happy to have one drawn high and one drawn low. BUZZ 2 points each way @ 17/2 1/5th 1234567 William Hill LIVE YOUR DREAM 1 point each way @ 12/1 1/5th 1234567 Paddy Power
    9 points
  43. Cambridgeshire day and with the ground lightning fast on Friday conditions are likely to ride the same again even with the clerk of the course watering after racing. Newmarket 1.50 The Royal Lodge is a group 2 contest for 2 year old colts and geldings run over a mile and has attracted a small but select field of 7 this year. The form horse has to be the Andrew Balding trained Masekela who’s last two runs have been boosted by Native Trail and Bayside Boy. He looks sure to run well with Oisin Murphy in the plate. The hard one to assess is the Charlie Appleby trained Coroebus who beat Saga on his debut at Newmarket and with that one winning well since is obviously smart. Royal Patronage is the other runner with a decent chance chasing a hat trick following wins at Epsom and in Group 3 company at York in the Acomb Stakes. The winner should come from this trio with slight preference for the potential of Coroebus who will be ridden by William Buick. COROEBUS 2 points win @ 5/2 Bet Victor Haydock 2.05 Charlie Appleby saddles his lightly raced three year old Noble Dynasty here having got the call in a three way photograph at Thirsk on his handicap debut and with only a 2lb rise in the weights should be competitive although at around the 6/4 mark is easily opposed on the point of value. Top weight Nugget appeals more having shown some smart handicap form in the spring but has a 147 day absence to overcome and I’m looking further down the betting for an edge. Tim Easterby’s Cruyff Turn has had an excellent season winning four times latterly in a decent class 2 York handicap at their Ebor meeting. He didn’t get the run of the race when 4th at Ayr last Saturday when looking as though he was very much still in form and although he’s risen 21lb this season may be the value call today. CRUYFF TURN 1 point win @ 7/1 Boylesports Newmarket 2.25 Thirteen have declared for the 6F Cheveley Park Stakes, a Group 1 contest for juvenile fillies. Ger Lyons sends over his unbeaten Juddmonte owned Sacred Bridge. She looked very good when winning in Group 3 company at The Curragh last month and could literally be anything. She’s the one they all have to beat though that is obviously reflected by her price at around 7/4. I was keen on Sandrine when she ran at York last time out in the Lowther but she fell out of the stalls and was always playing catch up in finishing a length runner up to Zain Claudette who re-opposes here. Sandrine was giving her rival 3lb that day and I confidently expect Andrew Balding’s filly to turn the tables on Ismail Mohammed’s runner today with better luck in running. Aidan O’Brien runs an interesting runner in Tenebrism who was last seen winning at Naas on soft ground over 5F in March. This is a big jump up in class but you can never discount a runner from the Ballydoyle trainer. At the prices I’ll take Sandrine each way to turn the tables on Zain Claudette and push Sacred Bridge all the way. It was interesting to hear Sandrine’s regular rider David Probert in a recent interview state that she would be the best horse he had ever ridden. SANDRINE 2 points each way @ 5/1 1/5th 1234 William Hill Haydock 2.40 A typical 5F Haydock sprint with 10 going to post. The race looks very tricky to my eyes and stakes should certainly be kept small. A case can feasibly be made for every runner if you’re prepared to go back far enough and the tentative selection is the Michael Dods runner Jawwaal who’s been in decent form this summer winning twice at Doncaster off of marks of 92 and 94 and has been beaten just over a length on his last two starts in class 2 handicaps off of a mark of 99. Off of the same mark he should be involved in the finish with Paul Mulrennan who’s riding exceptionally well currently on board. JAWWAAL 1 point win @ 10/3 BetVictor Newmarket 3.00 The third of three big two year races to be run this afternoon is the 6F Middle Park Stakes for colts only. Perfect Power comes here with the best form credentials having won Group 1 Prix Morny At Deauville last time with Asymmetric and Armor 1 3/4 and 2 1/4 lengths behind. Christophe Soumillon rode Richard Fahey’s Ardaad colt that day and is over from France to continue the association. The ground was on the slow side that day but he did win the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot on good to firm so the different ground shouldn’t be an issue. He’ll be hard to beat if in the same form although the Morny form was slightly let down by the runner up Trident getting beat on Thursday at Newmarket. Go Bears Go maybe the best each way value having run Perfect Power to a head in the Norfolk at Royal Ascot and won the Group 2 Railway Stakes since before a slightly below par 3rd in the Phoenix Stakes. PERFECT POWER 2 points win @ 2/1 Bet Victor Newmarket 3.40 One of my favourite handicap’s of the season the Cambridgeshire Handicap has attracted a maximum field of 35 and with the stalls spread right across the track there is likely to be a draw bias. Looking at the previous runnings and the races this week it seems that the stands side have an advantage so those that have been drawn high may have an edge. The last five winners have been drawn 28, 29, 21, 29 and 25. I flagged up the chances of handicap snip Chichester on Monday when he was a whopping 80/1 chance and everything has gone well with him this week with Hollie Doyle booked but I’ve cooled a bit on him now as he’s drawn stall 10 which may not be ideal. Maybe he’ll have enough in hand to win from the far side - let’s hope so. It wasn’t a shock to me that Frankie Dettori chose (and he has chosen I’m led to believe) Magical Morning over Uncle Bryn as he has the better form credentials and with a draw of 35 Magical Morning would have to be on anyone’s short list. Sir Michael Stoute’s Astro King has a big race like this in him but is drawn in ‘no mans land’ in 17 but I still expect him to be competitive under Ryan Moore. The two that I’m backing to add to my ante post play on Chichester with all the information to hand are the lightly raced Saeed Bin Suroor trained Long Tradition who’s berthed in stall 37 back on this near side rail with Marco Ghiani on board. This is his handicap debut and smacks a bit of Real World in the Royal Hunt Cup when bang against a rail Ghiani booted the Godolphin horse home before going to better things. The other horse I want in my portfolio is last years winner Majestic Dawn, a natural front runner who made all off of a 10lb lower mark last year under Paul Hanagan on this near side and has again been lucky with the draw in stall 34. I expect him to get across to the rail and make a very good fist of repeating last years victory with Hanagan replaced by William Buick and with his trainers Paul and Oliver Cole in good form. CHICESTER 1/2 point each way @ 80/1 (advised Monday) Bet365 ¼ 1234 MAJESTIC DAWN 1 point each way @ 20/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234567 LONG TRADITION 1 point each way @ 14/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234567
    9 points
  44. York’s Ebor meeting is on the horizon but we have some decent terrestrial televised racing for Saturday with 8 races shown by ITV. The ground should be perfect for all three meetings with the likeliest fastest ground found at Newmarket. Here we go then with my thoughts and selections for Saturday:- Newbury 145 The 7F Denford Stakes is for two year olds and is better known by its old title of the Washington Singer Stakes. To my eyes this looks like a straight match between Andrew Balding’s Masekela and Roger Varian’s Bayside Boy. Both stables are in red hot form with slight preference for the latter who impressed me immensely when winning over course and distance on his debut when Varian was struggling for two year old winners. This New Bay colt came late and fast to quicken past the red hot favourite of the Gosden’s looking all over a pattern performer. I’ll take him over Masekela who has more substance to his form having run Godolphin’s Native Trail to a short head in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket in July. BAYSIDE BAY 3 points win @ 7/4 Bet365 Newmarket 200 It has to be said that Pam Sly’s mare Eileendover has been a tad disappointing in her three runs on the level this flat season. As one of my 20 to follow for the season I was expecting to see her contesting the Ebor next weekend but her three runs on the level have only given her a mark of 92 which would be nowhere near enough to get her into the big race next weekend. She can however run here in this 14F fillies only handicap and it looks a good place to start her handicap campaign off. She can run well and may have most to fear from William Haggas’s Midrarr fresh from winning at Wolverhampton in the week and having to shoulder a 5lb penalty for that success. She’s on a roll although may not be as suited to turf as she is to a synthetic surface. The other 5 runners all have a chance of sorts but I’ve got to give my old friend Eileendover a final chance to prove that she’s smart. EILEENDOVER 2 points win @ 9/2 Bet365 Newbury 220 Last year’s comfortable winner Hukum is back to defend his title in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes and despite having to carry a 3lb penalty for his recent Group 3 win at York can follow up. Owen Burrow’s flag bearer impressed that day over 14F and won’t mind the slight drop in distance or if there was the odd shower or two. The owners retained jockey Jim Crowley is in the saddle as he has been for all of the Sea The Star’s nine career starts. For a Group 3 the opposition is quite tame in my opinion with the best possibly the tenacious Golden Pass of Hugo Palmer’s. He ideally needs fast ground though so any showers would be against her. He won’t be much of a price I’m afraid but Hukum really should be winning this. HUKUM 3 points win @ EVS Bet365 Newmarket 235 A unique annual race is the grey horse handicap open only to horses registered as grey. In this PC world we live in I’m surprised no one has stood up and campaigned for races for other coloured horses!! Case Key won this very race in 2017 and 2019 and has claims as has Mitrosonfire who just got up on the line in the Shergar Cup at Ascot last Saturday and has only been raised a pound. He’s the likely danger to my selection which is Eve Johnson Houghton’s My Style who has previous in this race himself having finished 3rd in 2019 (to Case Key) and by winning it last year off of a mark of 72 which is 2lb lower than he can race off of now. He has actually won off of 76 so is on a mark lower than his last winning one and looks to have been primed for this contest today with regular rider Georgia Dobie in the saddle. He looks sure to go well and can be backed each way. MY STYLE 2 points each way @ 7/1 1/5th 123 William Hills Newbury 255 Two horses stand out here to me in this 7F 0-95 handicap and they’re the two three year olds. Aratus is the current favourite and making his handicap debut here could be well treated off of 94 for Clive Cox and Adam Kirby. He’s been pulled out before due to good to soft ground so any easing in the ground would be against him. He looks sure to go well although slight preference is for the Ed Walker trained improver Sunset Bay. She’s on a hat trick following victories at Newbury and Sandown over today’s trip of 7F on soft and then fast ground. She bolted up at Sandown last time and that win wasn’t lost on the handicapper who has shunted her up 9lb. It was interesting that in a recent interview regarding Walkers best chances at York next week he selected this filly as his best chance. Obviously there’s been a change of thought as she runs here but he does believe she’s up to pattern class and if that’s the case she can still have some mileage from her current mark of 89. Hollie Doyle rides her for the first time and she can beat Aratus. SUNSET BAY 2 points win @ 7/2 Bet365 Ripon 310 The consolation Great St Wilfred Handicap has attracted a maximum field of 20 with Ghathanfar a worthy favourite as Tracy Waggott’s charge comes here in very good form and could be well drawn in stall 20. He is worth backing although I’m actually more interested in Marks Choice who always runs well here, only finishing out of the frame once in ten starts (3011431134) which includes a 3rd in this very race a year ago off of a 7lb higher mark. He won over course and distance back in April on his reappearance off of 77 and can race today off of 75 so is well handicapped if getting back to the form of earlier in the season. He’s had a wind operation since (his fourth!)we last saw him when his jockey said he stopped quickly. It’s worth taking a chance on Sam England’s 5 year old if the operation has worked. His draw of 10 is maybe a negative unfortunately but I can’t resist an each way bet on Cam Hardie’s ride here. MARKS CHOICE 1 point each way @ 16/1 1/5th 123456 Paddy Power GHATHANFAR 2 points each way @ 15/2 1/5th 123456 Paddy Power Newbury 330 Charlie Appleby’s Al Suhail has been well well backed throughout the week as the people in the know knew that stable companion Space Blues was a doubtful runner and can take this Group 2 Hungerford Stakes run over 7F. William Buick takes over now from Pat Dobbs who certainly looked after this Dubawi half brother to Telecaster amongst others when he re-appeared at Ascot in the Group 2 Summer Mile last month. That was his first start since the Dubai Carnival in March and he has always been held in high regard by the Boys in Blue. The Shadwell pair of Danyah and Motakhayyel look the chief threats and with Jim Crowley choosing the former and with him finishing ahead of Motakhayyel at Ascot last time may turn out to be Al Suhail’s biggest danger. AL SUHAIL 2 points win @ 11/4 William Hill Ripon 345 The days big sprint is the Great St Wilfred Handicap run over 6F. I advised an each way bet on last years winner Stanton earlier in the week at 14/1 and am very happy with that suggestion as he’s contracted to half those odds now. He has plenty going for him and looks sure to run a big race with the only negative being his draw in 8 as high numbers appear to have the best chance through the last ten years in this race and the earlier consolation race. For that reason alone I won’t be pressing up the bet and I’m happy enough to leave the staking plan with just Staxton. STAXTON 1 point each way @ 14/1 (advised Tuesday) Paddy Power ¼ 1234
    9 points
  45. As in previous years we will be running a tipsters competition for GLORIOUS GOODWOOD, Tuesday 27th July to Saturday 31st July. Rules: 1 selection per race throughout the competition Bets settled to £1 level stakes - WIN Only Bets settled at SP Highest accumulative total over the competition wins £60 cash (via PayPal) Runner Up wins £25 and the third place wins £15, all prizes via your PayPal account No edits allowed in selection posts Losses incurred for losers Replacement selections for NRs can be posted but must be before the first race deadline All Bets must be posted prior to the first race each day (no exceptions) Leader-board posted each evening A minimum of 14 bets is required to qualify for any prizes Only bets on that day's thread will be included, bets posted eleswhere will not be included All welcome, good luck.
    9 points
  46. Ambasaddor and the Snowy Burrows double both terrible sorry. Sky Defender a nice placed 2nd so was happy with small profit from that. But it's been a fantastic day due to the two single wins and double on the Crowley rides. Hope some of you backed them.
    9 points
  47. Viva La France 😄 3/3 over in France saves the day. 6/1, 5/4 & 8/13 winners. Doubled up on two of them as well. Hope some of you backed the French ones, might just start backing the French and stay clear of the UK 🤣. Will post my updated figures later on. Really frustrating with the UK info I had also. Horse was so green and blew it's chances early on in the race and was still only just touched off in 2nd. Will be one to follow next time out I think. Drifted to 7/4 as well so would have returned a nice amount on the double. Really appreciate the kind messages from everyone on here today, it hasn't gone unnoticed and I'm extremely glad to be part of this forum. Areas for improvement....Must try harder B- Mr. Barnett
    9 points
  48. Ashleigh Barty to win the 1st quarter at 2.87 with bet365 Barty will face Kovinic in the 1st round, Sorribes/Gavrilova in the 2nd round, S.Zheng/Krejcikova/Trevisan/Alexandrova in the 3rd round, Kontaveit/Sasnovich/Kr.Pliskova/Watson/F.Jones/Rogers/Danilovic/Martic in the 4th round and Bencic/Davis/Kuznetsova/Strycova/Zhu/Osuigwe/Leylah/Mertens/Muchova/Ostapenko/Barthel/Cocciaretto/Collins/Bogdan/Paolini/Ka.Pliskova in the QFs. IMO I don't see too many players there who can beat her and she has a big advantage: she can win most of the players without even playing good... Alexandrova in the 3rd round could trouble her a little bit but I can't imagine her winning the match. Then Kontaveit, Rogers and Martic in the 4th round. I watched her against Rogers and despite dropping a set against her the sensation of superiority was clear. Martic is far from her best form and Kontaveit hasn't showed her best tennis recently either so I don't see them as big threats for Barty. In the QFs the player I fear the most is Mertens. I don't expect too much from Karolina Pliskova, and Bencic's form is really poor as well. Collins is a player to be considered but, as I said, I think Barty has been lucky with the draw and I expect her to win this quarter. Danielle Collins (vs Bogdan) + Iga Swiatek (vs Rus) at 1.61 with 888 Bogdan ended 2020 with a negative record (7-8). She has played a couple of matches here, winning against Rakhimova and losing against Barty, both in straight sets. As I said before, Collins has played her best tennis ever here in Australia and she has done well recently, winning against Bonaventure, Stojanovic and Karolina Pliskova. She finally lost against Serena but she took a set from her (2-6, 6-4, 6-10). Rus' record in Australia is pretty bad and she hasn't done well recently. She lost her last match played here against Venus (6-1, 6-3) and she also lost in the 1s round in Abu Dhabi against Xiyu Wang. Swiatek has played a couple of matches here. She won against her best friend Kaja Juvan in the 1st round but then lost in 2 sets against Alexandrova. The current RG champion did well here the last year. She won against Babos, Carla Suárez Navarro and Vekic, all of them in straight sets, and finally lost against Kontaveit in a tight match. Victoria Azarenka (vs Pegula) + Nadia Podoroska (vs McHale) at 1.82 with 888 Azarenka has withdrawn from her QFs match against Kontaveit. She said she had a lower back problem but it's pretty obvious she had nothing and she did to be fit for the AO. Osaka also has withdrawn from her match against Mertens... They just don't want to risk the AO. Pegula's record on hard courts is impressive, but the 99% of her victories are on american soil. The only time she has played the AO was in 2020 and she lost in 2 sets against Towsend while Azarenka has won the whole tournament 2 times... Pegula has won here against Mladenovic and Barthel, and she has lost against Kenin in a 3 set match. In Abu Dhabi she lost in the 1st round against Svitolina, in straight sets. Azarenka has won her only match here against Putintseva. Despite being Pegula a good hard court player it would shock me a lot to see Azarenka losing this match considering how good she has been playing, especially in the USO. McHale was one of the players who was under a strict quarantine. She has lost in her only match played here against Kontaveit (1-6, 3-6) and that's the only one she has played since RG. As I said before, Podoroska is in her best moment right now. She has won here against Jones, Minnen and Kvitova. She finally lost against Vondrousova despite taking the 1st set. Sorana Cirstea to beat Patricia Maria Tig at 1.52 with 888 Cirstea is in a good form. She comes from winning an ITF tournament in Dubai, where she beat Blinkova, Cocciaretto, Krejcikova, Hercog and Siniakova. She has won against Kalashnikova and Bencic, both in 2 sets, and she's still to play against Ann Li in so she's currently in a 7 winning streak. Tig has lost the only match she has played here against Babos (6-7, 3-6). Cirstea is in a good form and feels so much better than Tig on hard courts so I expect her to win this match. Barbora Krejcikova to beat Saisai Zheng at 1.53 with 888 I haven't seen Saisai for a while... looks like she has been a little bit inactive due to the pandemic. She has played 1 match here, against Begu (6-3, 5-7, 4-6) and then she has no matches played since February 2020. In the other side, Krejcikova looks great. As I said before, the former world number 1 on doubles had a great 2020 on singles, and looks like that good form is still going on in 2021 cause she has won here against Davis and Rybakina and she’s still to play against Brady. Anastasija Pavlyuchenkova to beat Naomi Osaka at 5.00 with bet365 Osaka has been really unlucky. As I said before, Pavlyuchenkova always has played really well here. The last year here she lost against Gauff in the 3rd round while Pavlyuchenkova reached the QFs, where she lost against Muguruza in a tight match. Before that she beat Kerber and Karolina Pliskova. Osaka is the big favorite but it deserves a try at these odds. I know some tournaments still on but i'm out for the weekend. GL.
    9 points
  49. One of the questions I've seen most on forums is how do you determine value ????.....so let's try an value experiment and see how it goes .... First of all you need to decided what is important and assign a percentage of importance ( which can be changed ) ....but the total must come to 100% so for this example I've assigned .... Last time out form (40 % ) 1st or 2nd 10pts 3rd or 4th 8pts 5th or 6th 6pts 7th or 8th 4pts 9th or worse 2pts So that assigns recent form and what points the horse scores later we will come back to that Last win official rating +-lbs ( this is for hcaps for this example ) (15%) Off this hcap mark .... Won 10pts 1lb above last win 8pts 2 or 3 lbs above last win 6pts 4 or 5 pts above last win 4pts 6 plus lbs above last win 2pts So that assigns how well hccapped the horse is Form on ground ( 15% ) Won on ground 10pts Placed on ground 8pts Won on near to today's ground I.e good if today's gd/soft 6pts Placed on near today's ground 4pts Ground not close 2pts Distance form (20%) Won dist 10pts Placed dist 8pts Won within 2f 6pts Placed within 2f 4pts No form 3f+ 2pts Fitness ( 10% ) Last run 14 to 28 days 10pts Last run 8 to 13 days 8pts Last run 29 to 42 days 6pts Last run 1 to 7 days 4pts Last run 43days plus 2pts Right that's all values assigned ....the percentage in brackets is the importance I've assigned to each section ....this can be changed by yourself but must total 100% overall We now come to the formula that works out value Value = ( 40 * last time score ) + ( 15 * last win o.r score ) + (15 * ground section score ) + ( 20 * distance score ) + (10 * fitness score ) Looks complicated but the first number in each bracket is the percentage you assigned to each group at the top .....multiplyed by the score your horse achieved in each section ...... So in the last time out section at the top if your horse finished 2nd last time it would score 10pts so the first bracket of the value formula would be ( 40 * 10 ) ...you carry on for each section to complete the formula Let's do a working example as this will make it clearer My horse finished 2nd last time ......is 2lbs above last win ......has placed on ground ......won at distance ......last ran 42 days ago Scores for each section are Last time 10pts 2lb above win 6pts Placed on ground 8pts Won at distance 10pts Last ran 42 days 6pts Now you plug those numbers into the value formula Value = ( 40*10 )+( 15*6)+(15*8)+(20*10)+(10*6) Next stage is to convert the first number in each bracket ( the percentage )..to a decimal by dividing it by 100 Value =( .4*10)+ (.15*6)+(.15 *8)+(.20*10)+ (.1*6) Note the first number is a decimal .5 etc Now work out each bracket with your calculator and add up Value = (4)+(.90)+(1.2)+(2)+(.6) Totals for all brackets = 8.7 so this is the value score for horse 1 You now do the same for other horses ....of course this can be done on computer or spreadsheet for speed and you just plug the numbers in Just for this example let's pretend it's a 3 horse race so each horse rated as follows Horse 1 8.7 Horse 2 7.8 Horse 3 8.1 You now add up the scores for all horses.....in this case its ...24.6 We are now gonna create a price for each horse by taking the score for each horse and dividing it by the total score Horse 1 8.7 /24.6 =0.353 Horse 2 7.8/24.6 =0.317 Horse 3 8.1 /24.6 =0.329 Times each score by 100 to get your final percentage value figure Horse 1 35% Horse 2 31% Horse 3 32% You can now convert this percentage to a price using brigadier chart above and compare your value price with the actual price on offer .....if the odds on offer are far higher then your onto a winner long term ......and that's value in a nutshell 🤣 If you cant find the exact percentage price just go as close as you can and round up preferably to be safe
    9 points
  50. The run will end at some point I am sure, but another fantastic day on Saturday which means the profit currently stands at 147.24 points for the season which quite frankly is staggering really. This week we have an FA Trophy double header with the Step 2 sides coming in on Tuesday and the Step 1 sides coming in on Saturday. I am taking 4 possible upsets on Tuesday night in the Trophy and 1 bet in the 4 games taking place in the National League. Solihull v Halifax Halifax were struggle for goals and then they played Barnet and Weymouth and scored 5 past both of them. They added to that tally of 10 by adding 3 last Tuesday against Aldershot and now they are scoring goals they can be backed to beat an under performing Solihull. Granted they did beat Hartlepool in their 1st game after their FA Cup defeat, but they weren't great and their rivals did have a man sent off to help. They then lost 4-1 to Sutton and were poor on the TV on Saturday to Bromley. I would have Halifax around the 2/1 mark Blyth Spartans v Morpeth Blyth are looking doomed to relegation already and in a normal season they would already be playing Morpeth in a league game. Now I am taking a chance in backing 4 Step 3 and 4 sides given they haven't played any league games since the start of the 2nd lockdown, but I do think that is factored into the prices of the selections. Morpeth would likely have made the play-offs and they are better than their current league position. Being a local derby they will be bang up for this and Blyth are there for the taking. Bracknell v Havant & Waterlooville The Havant manager has already said he will be resting players tonight and that gives a strong Bracknell side for their level a chance to beat Havant tonight. They have only played 5 games, but have won 4 and drawn the other. They had a good win last Tuesday against Salisbury and as I saw they have a chance of winning this with Havant resting players. Concord Rangers v Truro City (now on Saturday) This would likely have been a league game if the season had have been completed last season and Truro are looking strong again this time around. Concord are still to play last seasons final and it would be an odd quirk if they got to the final of this year's competition as I can't see it happening before we know this season's finalists. This is a tricky tie for them though. They have only won twice in their last 10 league games and I think Truro have the better side. Marine v Southport Happy to back Marine again here as Southport have been really struggling for form. They have only picked up a point in their last 4 games and that was to an Alfreton side who are doing even worse than they have. One win in 8 for Southport and we know Marine are a good side who can beat better teams than Southport from this level. As I mentioned ahead of their game on Saturday they have had the advantage of playing in the FA Cup and being able to train during lockdown. Halifax 1pt @ 100/30 with William Hill Morpeth 1pt @ 29/10 with Betfair Bracknell 1pt @ 11/2 with Betfred Truro 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365 and Betfred Marine 1pt @ 4/1 with Bet365 & Betfred
    9 points
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