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  1. 23 points
    Naps Comp for April Most of us are going through a difficult time at the moment and whilst taking part and visiting the forum is not on the top of the list of priorities for people, here at Punters Lounge we realise how much a bit of normality can help. We have members from all over the world and our thoughts are with everyone. Racing like many other industries are struggling but we have taken the decision to carry on with the Daily Naps Competition and as a reward to our loyal members Paul is increasing the Prize Money on offer for the month of April. The new proposals we spoke about will be coming in although we are going to leave out the KO Cup competition until May as it may be difficult for 30 players trying to pick 3 selections each on the 4th of April when we may have limited action. The qualifying places in March will remain in place for the next KO Cup Competition. We will accept bets from any racing from around the world during April and all bets outside of Europe will be settled at the Industry SP which appears in the ATR or Sporting Life results section. (*Racing Post publish dividend prices which will be different from the Industry SP) We realise backing horses from the other side of the world is not everyones cup of tea and fully understand those that choose to sit it out until things get back to normal. I will continue to put the daily threads up and try and pinpoint what action is talking place. Just be aware of the off times, some US and AUS Racing will be very early in the morning. Race times will be based on the UK 24 hour clock, anything after midnight will count towards the following day regardless of when the meeting started. Hopefully in four weeks time we will have some better news, in the meantime we wish you all the best. Prize Money For April 1st: £100 2nd: £75 3rd: £50 4th: £25 Tipster with most winners with at least £10 profit will receive a £50 bonus All winners will also receive Punters Lounge Merchandise. Many thanks
  2. 19 points
    Darran

    Non-League Predictions > November 16th

    It has been a very profitable week with a money made last weekend and 3 out of the 4 bets winning in mid-week. Saturday I have 7 bets and a little unusually most of those are at Step 3. Barnet v Stockport After the first few games of the season I added Barnet to the list of ante-post bets as I thought they had looked promising early on. Ever since then they have been pretty poor and it sums the league up that despite that fact they are only 8 points of the top of the table. They have won just twice in their last 10 league games and they were against AFC Fylde and Chorley. The 3 draws in that spell weren't bad points, but if I was having an outright bet now it certainly wouldn't be them. It wouldn't be Stockport either, but after their horrid run of form where they lost 5 on the bounce, a run started with a 3-0 loss at Chorley, they have been in very good form on the whole. They have lost just one of their last 6 league games and are clearly back in decent form. They look over priced to me and I am happy to take a chance at 3/1. Bradford Park Avenue v Leamington I can't really work out why Bradford are the outsiders here because in my view the prices should be the other way round. With their former manager back in charge they look an improved side. They beat Hereford in his first game back and then I watched them in their 1-0 defeat to Gloucester where I saw enough to think they could well stay up. They then followed that up by conceding 7 without reply in defeats to Southport and Kettering, but they were much better again last week when they were 2-1 up with 7 minutes to go against Kings Lynn and ended up losing 3-2. Kings Lynn are a very good side though and Leamington are not and if they can take that performance into this I think they can pick up 3 points. Leamington have picked up just 1 point in their last 7 games and they have conceded a huge 22 goals in that spell. They even managed to concede 3 in the game they got their point in against Chester. Granted there isn't a great deal in it, but for me Bradford are looking the better side at the moment and with home advantage they certainly should not be over 2/1. Brightlingsea Regent v Cray Wanderers (BetVictor Isthmian Premier League) I don't get the price here either with Cray looking huge at 17/10. Cray have only lost 2 games in the league all season and they are unbeaten in their last 6. The two defeats were against Folkeston and Enfield so two of the best teams in the division. They go to a Brightlingsea side who have picked just 1 point in their last 8 games and that came against a poor Wingate & Finchley side. That was also the only game they didn't concede at least 2 goals in during the spell without a victory. Cray should be odds on for me and at 17/10 look the best bet of the weekend. Cheshunt v Carshalton (BetVictor Isthmian Premier League) 3rd time in a week I am having a bet on a Carshalton game. In the end they had a bit too much for Frome in the FA Trophy on Tuesday night although it turned into a bit of a goalfest. They have drawn their last 5 league games, but they really ought to be able to beat a struggling Cheshunt side who have lost their last 6 league games conceding 19 in the process. League wise this is the easiest fixture they have had since before the run of draws and they really ought to get back to winning ways in the league. East Thurrock United v Leatherhead (BetVictor Isthmian Premier League) Granted Leatherhead have had a fairly kind fixture list of late in the league, but they did beat Hornchurch in the run of 5 victories. They look a much improved side and although East Thurrock are a good team and are doing well since their relegation, I think they are over priced at 16/5 to win this. My feeling is there isn't much between these two sides which is why the price is an attractive one from a value perspective. Redditch v Hitchin (BetVictor Southern Premier Central) Redditch have only won two league games this season with both coming over August Bank Holiday weekend. They have had a run of 8 league defeats on the bounce and Hitchin could well make it 9 on Saturday. Hitchin are only 5 points better off than their hosts, but they are in much better form. Bizarrely their only defeat in their last 6 league games was against Leiston, but they then went and defeated Coalville, the only team to have beaten them in their last 10 games. Redditch have only scored 3 goals in their last 8 games as well so there is every chance 1 will be all that is needed to give Hitchin the 3 points. Nuneaton v Stratford (BetVictor Southern Premier Central) & Bognor Regis v Merstham (BetVictor Isthmian Premier League) More than happy to carry on opposing Stratford as I have done twice of late including last Saturday. Nuneaton are looking pretty good at the moment and have won 6 of their 9 home league games, indeed it is away from home where they have struggled. They ought to win as should Bognor who host Merstham. Bognor looked hopeless earlier in the season, but they have now won 6 of their last 7 league games including a 6-1 hammering of Margate on Tuesday night. Merstham look a poor side this season and have lost 8 of their last 9 games including the last 6. It really should be a home win and to get over 2/1 about the both Nuneaton and Bognor winning looks a good price to me. Stockport 1pt @ 61/20 with Marathon Bradford Park Avenue 1pt @ 21/10 with William Hill and BetVictor Cray Wanderers 3pts @ 17/10 with Bet365 Carshalton 2pts @ 13/10 with Bet365 Leatherhead 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365 Hitchin 1pt @ 6/4 with Bet365 Nuneaton/Bognor Regis 2pts @ 2/1 with Marathon
  3. 16 points
    Darran

    Non-League Predictions > August 26th

    Saturday was one of those frustrating days which looked like being a really good day at one point and then ended up showing a loss, albeit small, despite only one team losing. I have 6 bets on Monday although I am not going crazy because it is set to be another very hot afternoon coming on the back of a very hot afternoon on Saturday and that is going to be very tough on the players. I think it is going to make what is already a tough turn around even tougher. It is my birthday so hopefully a profit can be made. Boreham Wood v Ebbsfleet Two sides with only 1 win between them and I doubt there is a great deal between the two sides which make the away team a bet at 29/10. Boreham Wood have usually been very strong at home since they got promoted, but they haven't won a home game since January and with Ebbsfleet improving (they could have beaten Notts County in the end on Saturday), they look a sporting play here. Dover v Woking Have I got Woking massively wrong? Having put them up to be relegated I am amazed they are top of the table after 6 games, but then they had a similar start in 2017 when I put them up to go down and they did end up being relegated so who knows! Beating Solihull 2-0 was a superb effort on the back of beating Fylde 4-1. Dover have had a good start as well, but they have lost 2 of their 3 home games and Woking have looked especially good away from home. They just shouldn't be 5/2 shots to win this game. Blyth Spartans v Guiseley Blyth's woeful start to the season continued on Saturday as they drew 0-0 with Bradford Park Avenue who have looked even worse than Blyth have. Guiseley have already scored 14 goals this season and must fancy their chances of adding to that tally here. I think they should be nearer even money than the 141/100 that they are. Curzon Ashton v Spennymoor I can't believe how much Spennymoor have struggled so far and one 1 point in 4 games is not a good return for last season's beaten play-off finalists. They will surely turn it around sooner rather than later though and I think it could be on Monday as they face a Curzon side who had a nightmare trip to Kings Lynn on Saturday and then were well beaten. On paper Spennymoor are the better side and they just shouldn't be 9/4 shots. Braintree v Dorking Both sides lost on Saturday, but I thought Dorking's loss to Hampton was worse and Braintree seem to be gelling at last. Prior to Braintree's 2-1 defeat to Dartford on Saturday they had beaten St Albans 3-0 and Eastbourne 5-0. Dorking's only point in their last 3 games came in a draw against St Albans and they might not add to that here. Braintree certainly look over priced at 17/10. Kingstonian v Bishops Stortford Not been a great start to the season by the home side although they were unbeaten before Hornchurch beat them on Saturday. The main reason for tipping Stortford up though is the fact they didn't have a game on Saturday and given the conditions that could well have a big part to play in this game and for that reason at 29/10 they look a sporting play and have managed to win a game this season unlike their hosts. Ebbsfleet 1pt @ 29/10 with Bet365 Woking 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365 Guiseley 1pt @ 141/100 with Marathon Spennymoor 1pt @ 9/4 with Bet365 Braintree 1pt @ 17/10 with Marathon Bishops Stortford 1pt @ 29/10 with BetVictor
  4. 15 points
    OMG first 4 in a fashion🤣
  5. 15 points
    Must admit I have never really understood his posts so have just ignored him. I've had bad spells, but this past week has been one of the toughest I have had. Tonight Hartlepool defended terribly for the two goals and despite having lots of possession didn't do enough with it in the final 3rd. If people want to stop following that's up to them, but prior to Saturday I had a great couple of sessions with 4 late goals making a huge difference to things. I've been posting on here for nearly 10 years now and only a couple of times have I struggled on match betting so it is proven that I will nearly always make a profit over a season. Obviously I can never guarantee that as it is gambling at the end of the day, but hopefully come the end of April we will all be a few quid up.
  6. 15 points
    Darran

    Non-League Predictions > September 28th

    Tuesday night summed up the last 2/3 weeks really as things didn't quite go our way. Barnet had a stinker and Halifax should have won only to lose to a late goal in the end. Hopefully I can end the month on a high though as I have 7 bets including some strong selections among them. Previews to follow Barrow v Maidenhead I know Maidenhead have one of the best away records in the league, but I think they have been flattered by their good start and they are beginning to find their natural place in the table. Their last 2 away games have seen a draw at Wrexham and a loss at Barnet and that trend is also in their overall form. They have now not won in 5 games and go to a side in Barrow who are flying at the moment. After beating Yeovil in a live game last month they then failed to win in their next 4 games picking up just a point, but they were playing well and only losing games by the odd goal. They have now won their last 4 and they have scored 3 goals in each of their last 3 games. With Maidenhead only keeping 1 clean sheet in their last 9 games then Barrow will surely be adding to their goals total here. They look a big price at 6/4 to win this. Dover v Halifax As mentioned above Halifax should have won on Tuesday night, but in the end a late Harrogate goal meant they didn't even end up with a point. They look a big price though to beat a Dover side who have only managed to pick up 5 points from their 6 home games so far this season. That includes draws against struggling Ebbsfleet and Chorley so Halifax should pose a much stiffer test. It is annoying that the only time I have tipped Dover away from home this season was the one time they haven't won on their travels this season, but it is clear that Dover at home and Dover away from home are two very different sides. Halfiax have looked strong away from home and I just can't see how they can be nearly 3/1 to win this as I would have them around the 7/4 mark myself. This game is the live BT Sport one on Saturday teatime. Billericay v Dorking Granted it was very poor from Dorking to lose to a side two leagues below them in the FA Cup last Saturday especially given Tooting ended up with 10 men, but this game looks a decent chance to bounce straight back. They have won their last 3 league games and a 3-1 win over Maidstone was a top effort. I suspect everyone reading this knows what has happened at Billericay so I won't go back over it, but they could only manage 5 subs (allowed 7) in their FA Cup game and they only scraped a 1-0 win. One of those subs was new manager Jamie O'Hara who was meant to have retired. More players have left the club this week and although as I type the likes of Jake Robinson are still there, they have been weakened. Dorking are above Billericay in the table as well and we are dealing with a different Billericay from the side who had won 4 of their 5 home league games so far. At over 3/1 the away side seem a sporting play in the circumstances. Eastbourne v Chelmsford Two sides who are under performing so far this season especially the away team whose fans aren't happy with the way things have gone. Their away form has been especially bad as they have only picked up 1 point so far in 5 away games The also lost at Corinthian-Casuals in the FA Cup last weekend and they haven't even managed to win a game in the league below. Including that FA Cup game they have conceded twice 3 times and let in 4 twice. Given all that I just can't understand how bookies can make Chelmsford favs to win this. I accept Eastbourne aren't doing great themselves, but they have only lost one of their last 5 league matches and beat Tonbridge in the FA Cup last weekend. They should be favs to win this so 15/8 is well worth taking. Gloucester City v Guiseley I am backing my own team again here as I just don't see how they can be 5/2 to win this. Having seen them in the flesh against Kings Lynn two weeks ago I was impressed with what I saw and they were within seconds of being the first team to win at Kings Lynn for a long time. Granted Kings Lynn deserved the point, but Gloucester held their own against a team who have started the season very strongly and look at this stage to be certain to finish in the play-offs. Beating Guiseley won't be easy as they have done well themselves this season, but their only away wins so far have come against two of the worst sides in the league Bradford Park Avenue and Blyth. That points to Gloucester having a decent chance and I would make them a point shorter to win. Spennymoor v Kidderminster My strongest bet of the season so far. I know Kiddie have only lost once away this season in the league, but they have had a very kind fixture list so far. They have beaten Bradford, Curzon and Kettering and drew to Blyth. They are currently the bottom 4 clubs in the division. Now Spennymoor are 5th from bottom, but they have clearly been suffering from a play-off final defeat hangover (like Fylde in the league above) and they are much better than a bottom 5 side for me. They have only lost one of their last 6 league games so the signs are there that they will be rising up the table. Kidderminster look a long way from being a side capable of mounting a play-off challenge this season and I would put a lot of money on Spennymoor finishing above them come the end of April. Losing 3-0 at Stafford in the FA Cup replay on Tuesday was another shocker and of course they have had to play an extra game compared to the home side. I am really strong on the home side here and they should be odds on shots in my view. Buxton v South Shields I was very surprised to see South Shields at odds against to win this. The title favourites have only lost won game this season and have won all bar one of the others. Compare this to Buxton who have yet to win and have picked up just 3 points in their first 8 games. Odds against looks a steal to be honest and it will be a surprise if this isn't an away win. Barrow 2pts @ 6/4 with BetVictor Halifax 1pt @149/50 with Marathon Dorking 1pt @ 16/5 with BetVictor Eastbourne 1pt @ 15/8 with Marathon Gloucester 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365 Spennymoor 4pts @ 61/50 with Marathon South Shields 3pts @ 59/50 with Marathon
  7. 15 points
    Darran

    Non-League Predictions > August 31st

    Superb day on Monday with only 5/6 winners at some decent prices as well. If only Spennymoor could have won we would have been looking at another hefty payout. Just to remind people that I always suggest they do singles, but I always cover the acca and the one below for 0.5pts every match day and the five fold on Monday has pretty much paid for a whole season of those bets. It has been a bit of a rollercoaster though this month so hopefully we can end August on a high on Saturday where I have 7 bets across 5 leagues. Torquay v Hartlepool Hartlepool were one of my ante-post bets for the league and I was beginning to think I had got them wrong, but they got a really good win on Monday when beating Wrexham 4-2. Torquay blew a 2 goal lead at Barnet on Monday and that came on the back of beating Aldershot on BT Sport on Saturday. Torquay did well enough and deserved the win, but I didn't think they had to work all that hard for it. I don't think there is a great deal between these two teams at the moment and the win on Monday should have given Hartlepool a nice confidence boost ahead of this. The 100/30 about an away win looks over priced for me. Yeovil v Notts County County continue to improve and although they didn't have to do much to beat Chorley on Monday they did score some very impressive goals. I think they can come out on top in this battle between the two relegated sides. I haven't really been taken by Yeovil so far and they lost their last 3 games after results wise a good start. They have only managed to beat Eastleigh and Ebbsfleet so far though and I think at the time they were two of the poorest teams in the division so it doesn't say much. I would have County as clear favourites and they are certainly looking stronger than they were earlier in the month. Gloucester City v York City York are already looking like they could be hard to beat in the National League North and they are unbeaten after 7 games. Away from home they are 3/3 and I think they can make it 4/4 at Evesham on Saturday. Gloucester had a good win last Saturday, but those efforts told when being well beaten by Brackley on Monday. As I have written in the past Gloucester's form at Evesham hasn't been great although they can make it hard for teams to break them down and they drew plenty in the final few months of the season as they tried to stay at this level. I think York have more than enough to break them down though and I thought York would be odds on so odds against is well worth taking. Hyde v Stafford It has been a good start to the season for Hyde as after losing to Basford on the opening day of the season they have won their other 3 games including beating South Shields last Saturday. That is clearly strong form and they host a Stafford side who have only picked up 1 point from their first 3 games so Hyde look a decent bet to make it 4 wins on the bounce. Bognor v Carshalton Take Bognor's 5-0 win over Worthing out and they have had a shocking start to the season and they lost 3-0 to Worthing last Saturday and they had lost their previous game 6-0! Carshalton lost their first two games, but they have won their next 3 games and should be capable of mounting a play-off challenge this season whereas Bognor might just struggle to get involved. It doesn't really make much sense why the away side are 100/30 and the prices should be much closer together. Hednesford v Needham Market The home side are looking like they will be title contenders this season and have won 4 of their first 5 games with the only defeat coming against unbeaten Coalville. On Monday they beat title favourites Tamworth and I think they should have too much in hand over a Needham Market side who have only managed to beat bottom side Leiston so far this term. St Ives v Coalville Speaking of Coalville they travel to St Ives side who have only managed to pick up one point on the opening day of the season. As mentioned above Coalville are unbeaten so far and they came out on top in an 8 goal thriller against Nuneaton on Saturday. These two teams should be battling it out at opposite ends of the table come April and Coalville look a big price to pick up 3 more points. Hartlepool 1pt @ 100/30 with Bet365 Notts County 2pts @ 6/4 with Marathon and Bet365 York 2.5pts @ 11/10 with BetVictor Hyde 1pt @ 7/5 with BetVictor Carshalton 1pt @ 100/30 with Marathon Hednesford 2pts @ 26/25 with Marathon Coalville 2pts @ 131/100 with Marathon
  8. 14 points
    BillyHills

    **New Rules Starting March 1st**

    With the ever changing landscape of the bookmaking industry it is becoming very confusing to some on which bookmakers we can use and which bookmakers allow BOG, and from which time it is allowed. We have decided to narrow the choice of bookmakers and to allow BOG with all selections posted in the competition regardless of time. This will make it much easier for both players and me when settling the bets. From March 1st the rules regarding bookmakers we use will be as follows; The only 5 bookmakers allowed in the competition are; Bet365 Paddy Power/Betfair (same prices) Betvictor William Hill Betfred Any selections posted with any other bookmaker will be settled at SP Many thanks
  9. 14 points
    Darran

    Non-League Predictions > October 12th

    I have had tough spells in the past and given this one has only lasted 2 match days it is not exactly the longest, but this week has been really tough. Saturday wasn't great and the 3pt Yeovil bet losing was annoying, but what happened on Monday and Tuesday was just awful. Gloucester should have won that game with ease in the circumstances, but they massively under performed and obviously personally that defeat was hard to take. Then for Dover to go and somehow lose 4-0 to Aldershot on the Tuesday night was probably an even freakier result. I have now tipped up Dover in their only 2 games they have failed to win on the road and they have conceded 7 times in those two matches. Granted it was only a point on Hartlepool on Wednesday night, but to see them defend as badly as they did for the 2 Stockport goals was pretty hard to take as it was really bad stuff. Obviously if you were a new follower after the two really good days the week before then you might be wondering what all the fuss is about and you will be a fair few quid down. I can make no guarantees about making a profit, but hopefully come April I will still be in profit and who knows we might get a day like the final day of last season again! Anyway onto Saturday and I have 6 bets. Halifax v Boreham Wood Chorley turned up to Halifax on Tuesday night and didn't even try to win the game and Halifax just couldn't break them down. Fair play to Chorley because they keep drawing games so in some ways it was no disrespect to only get a point against them rather than all 3. I do think though they can get straight back to winning ways against a Boreham Wood side who will have done plenty of travelling this week. They have been in decent nick only losing 2 of their last 7 games, but one of those was when they had to go all the way to Barrow on Tuesday night and they lost 3-1 to the in form home side. It is pretty nasty of the fixture list to send them to Barrow on a Tuesday and then Halifax on the Saturday especially when Halifax played at home on Tuesday night. Halifax have got the best defence in the league which is key given Tshimanga and Marsh have both score 8 goals for Wood this season. Keep them quiet and the chances are you will win the game and hopefully Halifax will do just that. I would have them odds on myself so 13/10 looks a big price. AFC Telford v York City York are still unbeaten which is pretty impressive after 12 games and hopefully they will be making it 13 games unbeaten after this one. They are already looking like they will be hard to beat for the title and they ought to have too much for a Telford side who have been really struggling of late. They lost to Blyth in their last league game and were also dumped out of the FA Cup 3-0 to Nantwich from the league below. They have conceded 3 goals in each of their last 4 home games as well and you would expect a side like York to be able to punish them on that front as well. Again I think York should be odds on shorts so 59/50 makes plenty of appeal. Curzon Ashton v Blyth Spartans Blyth are obviously risky because they haven't been great so far this season, but they have shown signs of improvement and they look way over priced to beat a badly out of form Curzon side who are in worse form. Curzon have not won a game since August 12th and not only that they have only picked up 1 point in the league since then and that was when they drew with Stalybridge on Bank Holiday Monday which stopped me from getting a very profitable full house on that day! Blyth know they can beat Curzon as they beat them in a FA Cup replay last month. As mentioned above Blyth won their last league game against Telford and although they lost to Hednesford in the FA Cup last Saturday they still look in better shape than their hosts at the moment. I would probably have them around the 7/4 mark and the 29/10 they actually are is way over the odds. Whitby v Warrington I am going to try and get some of the money back lost on Monday by taking on Whitby again. We know they were down to the barebones for Monday and although getting time off work won't be an issue here they still have injuries to deal with. The players were out on their feet on Monday after about 60 minutes and Gloucester were well on top despite having just 10 men and I even get the feeling City might have won the tie if they had 11 men on the pitch. Taken that into account I suspect there will be some tired Whitby legs on Saturday. Also given they have a great chance of getting to the 1st Round of the FA Cup next Saturday and I would imagine they will have more than one eye on that tie against Stourbridge. Warrington are more than good enough to take advantage and have yet to loose on their travels in the league this season. Granted they haven't won in 4, but they have drawn 3 of those games and although South Shields already look away and gone they should be in the play-offs. All things considered I think they are over priced for this and are well worth backing. Hartley Whitney v Walton Casuals The home side have yet to win at home in the league this season and hopefully that will continue to be the case here. They have only won twice and they have come against Dorchester who are below them in the table and Met Police who are one place above them. Walton Casuals lost their first 5 games, but have followed that up with 4 straight wins so come here in fine form and I fancy them to make it 5 losses and 5 victories. Harrow v Truro Truro are having a cracking season after relegation having lost just twice in 10 games and have won 7 of them as well. They look possible title contenders and I think they can get another 3 points here. Harrow started the season well enough and were unbeaten after 5 games, but they have lost 3 of their last 4 and I suspect they are going to find their place in the table being the bottom half come April. I think Truro are well worth a bet as they are the better side of the two and hopefully will go and prove that on the pitch. Oxford City v Dartford This is an extra bet after I put the initial 6 bets up. It was announced on Thursday evening that Steve King was the new manager at Dartford and I think that news makes them worth a bet on Saturday. We usually see an improved performance from teams who have a new manager and I am a huge fan of Steve King. His track record especially at this level is hugely impressive and as much as fans of rival clubs have always wanted to slag him off I have never really understood why given how good he is. He nearly saved Whitehawk from relegation 2 seasons ago given from memory I don't think they had even won a game when he joined, they certainly were detached at the bottom of the table. He then went to Welling and got them to finish 3rd despite the fact they cut the wage budget during the season and they went on to lost to Woking in the play-off final. I'm not surprised he wasn't out of work for long and I expect him to get an under performing Dartford rising up the table. Oxford City have won three games at home this season and two of them were against Hampton & Richmond with the other against North Leigh in the FA Cup. They have drawn against Weymouth and Billericay in their last two home league games which are fair efforts, but I think we could see a big performance from Dartford this weekend and at 15/8 I am willing to back them. Halifax 3pts @ 13/10 with William Hill York 2.5pts @ 59/50 with Marathon Blyth Spartans 1pt @ 29/10 with Marathon Warrington 1pt @ 9/4 with BetVictor Walton Casuals 1pt @ 153/100 with Marathon Truro 1pt @ 7/5 with Marathon Dartford 1pt @ 15/8 with Bet365
  10. 14 points
    Darran

    Non-League Predictions > August 10th

    Having struggled a little on the Nap front last season it was good to go 2/2 on that front with Eastbourne winning. It was also good to get the first big priced winner of the season thanks to Aldershot and Guiseley's thrashing of Bradford Park Avenue helped make it a profitable night. 3 of the Step 3 leagues get underway on Saturday to bring us up to 6 leagues and I have 8 bets across them. Previews to follow Bromley v Torquay It was a rude awakening for Torquay fans on Tuesday night as they were hammered 3-0 by Solihull. Gary Johnson called the Torquay performance inept and the worst he has seen since he joined the club. To be fair to the players though they were playing the team who finished 2nd last season and should be a play-off side this and that is a massive step-up from a very poor National League South. This will be another very tough game for them and whilst they will have got a kick up the arse from Gary, this is a good Bromley side who might for me look stronger than Torquay. They had a very comfortable win on Tuesday against Ebbsfleet and whilst this is harder they should be shorter than 6/4 to claim another 3 points. Notts County v Barnet Notts County got their first point of the season on Tuesday when drawing with 1-1 with Stockport. It was more proof though that they are struggling to come to terms with football at this level and that a team who signed 6 players 48 hours before the season started are struggling to gel. I wasn't certain of taking them on with Eastleigh or Stockport but I think Barnet are well worth backing. Barnet have 4 points from their first 2 games and have played well in both although the concern is both their goals have come from penalties. They need to take their chances, but I think they will certainly be capable of creating a few here and for me they should be no bigger than 2/1 and probably a bit shorter than that. Barnet for me are a step-up from the two opponents County have faced so far. Woking v Harrogate Woking played well in the first half against Aldershot on Tuesday, but they weren't so good in the 2nd half and Aldershot were able to take the derby day victory. I think Woking will struggle this season and I can't understand why Harrogate aren't clear favs for this game. They were involved in a great 2-2 draw with Solihull on day 1 and then were comfortable 3-0 winners at Barrow on Tuesday. Barrow is a tough place to go and it wouldn't be a big surprise if that was their heaviest defeat at home this season. Those two performances suggest Harrogate will be up their again this season and despite Woking's win at Dagenham I still think they will be in a relegation battle. Hopefully Harrogate can make their superior quality pay. Alfreton v Blyth Spartans This is a value play for me because Alfreton have been hammered in the betting from the opening prices and Blyth have drifted out to way too big a price. Blyth lost to Gloucester on the opening day of the season and I certainly don't think they will be a play-off contender as they were last season, but then Alfreton don't look like they will be anything special either. They have flattered to deceive for the last two seasons and my initial feeling is they will be no higher than mid-table. This game is currently priced up as if it is against title contenders and relegation fodder which isn't how I have seen it at all. Blyth have also had a week off as their game against Spennymoor was called off and that means they have 90 minutes less in their legs and extra training to get things right ahead of this game. Bradford Park Avenue v Kidderminster Just before I started to write the preview for this game it was announced that BPA had sacked their manager. We usually see the odd casualty during August, but for someone to be sacked with less than a week gone of the season is highly unusual. As I wrote in the preview for their game on Tuesday they had to be really bad to lose 5-0 to Curzon and then they went and lost 5-0 again to Guiseley. It's hard to know if they have done the right thing to sack the manager or not. I guess you could give him time to turn it around, but it would seem he has recruited poorly and its going to be hard when the fixtures come so fast in August for someone else to come in and change things quickly. I'm certainly happy to back Kidderminster here. Now Kiddie haven't exactly looked great themselves and I'm not sure I would want to be backing them at 11/8 to win away at anyone else in the league, but this is the right time to be playing BPA. Kiddie have the players to hurt them even if they look a little bit short of play-off contenders at the moment and they look a good bet to win this. Braintree v Wealdstone I saw Wealdstone in action on Tuesday night when they lost 1-0 to Dulwich. They will probably consider themselves unlucky to lose as they were very much on top when Dulwich scored the only goal of the game and the continued to see plenty of the ball. The problem was they didn't really test the keeper too much during the game despite some good build up play, although Dulwich looked really solid in defence and that was a big part in them keeping a clean sheet. They both look teams capable of being play-off contenders and both look better teams than they were last season. As I mentioned in my ante-post preview I don't think Braintree will do a great deal this season and they have lost their first two games although to be fair they were tough ones against Bath and Billericay. They actually played well against Braintree going down 3-2, but that was a local derby against the team everyone in the league will want to beat. I think they will suffer a bit of a comedown in this and their squad is very inexperienced this season. They also looked weak in defence and Wealdstone should be able to take full advantage. They are a big price and I make them the Nap's of the day. Weymouth v Chelmsford I was a bit surprised that Chelmsford lost to Concord on Tuesday, but it suggests that like last season they could have issues away from home. Weymouth have put in two really good performances in their first two games back at this level beating Maidstone and drawing at home to Bath. Those suggest they will be a force to be reckoned with in NLS this season and it is hard to understand why Marathon have got them bigger than 2/1. I would have them at around 5/4 myself and they have a real chance of winning this. Merstham v Hornchurch Just one bet at Step 3 for me this weekend and although I hope Hornchurch don't win the title I certainly can see them getting their campaign off to a winning start. Merstham lost their manager and most of their squad to Kingstonian over the summer and they really are a shadow of the side who made the play-offs last season. They look likely to be struggling at the wrong end of the table given the strength of their side and Hornchurch ought to be odds on really. Bromley 1pt @ 31/20 with BetVictor Barnet 1pt @ 33/10 with BetVictor Harrogate 2pts @ 17/10 with BetVictor and Betway Blyth Spartans 1pt @ 5/1 with Boylesports (19/4 with BetVictor, 9/2 with Betfred) Kidderminster 2pts @ 11/8 with BetVictor Wealdstone 2.5pts @ 17/10 with BetVictor Weymouth 1pt @ 41/20 with Marathon Hornchurch 2pts @ 11/8 with Marathon
  11. 13 points
    Firstly thank you to Billyhills for all the hard work running the competition. You are to blame for me even bothering to enter this competition. I was a bit of a gambler before joining this site. I like to think I have learnt from reading a lot of the various posts. I don’t do methods or ratings, I would not have the time or patience. There are so many really good people on here, read and analyse and anything is possible. I have really enjoyed this week before today! 1st winner was down to Cable Guy ( Owners Group horse I have a hair on - Billy your fault again) just joined Charlie Fellows this week, dropping in trip, had to have him. Now how did I pick a 150-1 winner! I just watched his first race back last night and thought he was a bit unlucky, got knocked about a bit by other horses, got tired possibly and given a good ride by the jockey, who was back on today. He was not meant to be 150-1, I think he was about 50-1 last night. Apologies Rupert, I enjoy reading your posts and I have pinched a couple of winners off you this week along side those selected by Richard-Westwood who never fails to find value. I suppose I will have to get ready for Goodwood now! I might even have to post myself now but be warned I’m no expert. Once more thanks to everyone who took part and who contributes to this site.
  12. 13 points
    In addition to the above I think we can safely say that we can have a decent fixture list until the end of July. That gives us another 7 weeks if we start on June 13th, making an 8-week season. Proposals Resume competition on June 13th Final matches on July 25th Season reduced to 8 weeks (from 10) (already had 1 week) Fixture list to include minor leagues from Europe
  13. 13 points
    vikki37

    Naps Competition - Proposal For April

    though I'll never win, this really touches my heart. This forum is very heartwarming, sweet and does bring a loving, caring atmosphere (most members.🤣🤣)..very supportive and this forum does feel like a second home you can go to. 🥰🥰 Thank you all for the efforts, input and predictions on the forum. Stay safe, everyone and wish you all good health and happiness. 💞💞
  14. 13 points
    BillyHills

    Competition Going Forward

    Proposals As promised is the tables thread I am looking at ways to reward the more consistent players and also ways to keep up the interest to the end of the month. I find that clear leaders sit on their profit and players attempting to qualify for the Cup are doing the same which leads to many players not picking selections in the last couple of days or more. Just to be clear I have no feelings one way or another on how players go about approaching the competition, we all have our own way of betting, we just want everyone to feel they have something to play for. I have noticed over the last few months some rumblings about the way players approach the Naps competition and there is no doubt we have had a shift in more players going for the speculative outsider than we have before. I had a look at the figures and we are regularly hitting around the 19% S/R these days where as before we were often around the 25% mark. This is totally down to more players going for 25/1+ selections. The players who genuinely sift through the cards to find their best bet of the day feel as though they have no chance in winning the monthly competition. I can see once a player has hit a 50/1 winner just playing for a Cup place is not the best of incentives. I think we can reward performance and profit and have been looking at the last 12 months figures to see how we can do it. At first I thought it would be best just to award the player with the highest strike rate a percentage of the winners prize but I also don't think encouraging people to select 1/4 shots everyday is helping anyone, so taking that a step further, what about if we had a profit figure that you needed to surpass as well? If we say took the highest strike rate of those that made a profit in the month of at least £10 that would kill off any ideas of odds on shots every single day. Of course you would expect some short priced horses to be chosen and I have no problem with that, if its a Nap, its a Nap but by having the £10 figure it really rewards those that have performed well that month. I have done a couple of tables to show how it would have panned out since January 2019 up until last month. Interestingly just 2 winners of the comp came out with the best S/R. 8 players were in the top 4 cash prizes but it would have given 7 players a prize that wouldn't have normally received anything. I would say overall that suits most type of punter. Of course people may bet differently knowing about the new prize. In the second table i took away the upper profit limit and this highlighted the problem of players sitting on a small profit just to qualify for the Cup, I feel this would just get worse if there was a prize for the highest S/R only. I propose a prize of £20 for player with the highest SR that has at least £10 profit on the month. This prize may well go to a player in the top 4 already but the winner of the whole competition will still quite rightly win the most cash whatever the result. The second part of the new formula is to limit the amount of players qualifying for the Cup. At the minute anyone finishing in profit (or even, lol) gains automatic qualification into the following months KO Cup. This can be as many as 30+ players and this often leads to a few players reaching a profit figure and then stopping posting for last few days of the month, or even worse players reaching 15 bets and then just stopping. If we had a figure of 25 players only to qualify for the Cup then it would make it more exciting and something to aim for in the final few days of the month. I will also award a runners up prize for the KO Cup which has been asked for in the past. I am not looking to change any of the main rules of the comp, i think we should keep the main core of what the comp is all about ie; picking one horse per day. So we wont be changing that or messing about with stakes etc..... Let me know if you think this would be a way forward, please bare in mind we have a budget and we want to keep things simple. Proposals as from April 1st Winner : £60 Second : £30 Third : £20 Fourth: £10 Highest S/R with min £10 Profit : £20 Cup Winner: £30 Cup Runners Up: £10 Top 25 only to qualify for Cup. Table of those with the highest S/R and achieving a £10 profit Table of those with the highest S/R, no upper limit on profit Those in grey did not make the £10 profit mark.
  15. 13 points
    Saturday was a superb day with 5 of the 7 bets winning including the Nap's Spennymoor and Stratford at a big price as well. Tuesday saw two winners and an injury time goal from Horsham stopped us getting 3/3 in midweek. This Saturday I have 8 bets spread across the leagues and the FA Trophy. Welling v Slough (National League South) Happy to go in with Welling again after they did us a turn last weekend against St Albans. This is a tougher game for the home side, but as I mentioned last week I think we will continue to see improved performances from them due to the change in manager. Slough are obviously in the play-off picture, but did lose to Oxford City last week and I give Welling a better chance of making it 4 wins on the bounce than the bookies do. Hednesford v Kings Langley (BetVictor Southern Premier Central) Another team to do the business for us in the last week were Kings Langley who came from a goal down to win on Tuesday night. That win continued their great form and they can pick up another 3 points here. I don't think all is right at Hednesford and they have lost their last 3 games and the only wins in their last 10 are against the lesser teams in the division. I nearly opposed them on Tuesday but left Nuneaton alone in the end only for Nuneaton to win 3-0. Kings Langley can go above their hosts with a win here and I would make them favourites to do so. Buxton v Gainsborough (BetVictor Northern Premier) Gainsborough were the other team to win for us on Tuesday night and that made it 5 wins on the bounce. We have been on them a few times of late and they are worth backing again here for me. Buxton have only managed 6 wins all season and although they aren't in bad form they are tending to beat the teams around them more than anything else and Trinity are clearly better than a 15th place team at the moment. Radcliffe v Lancaster (BetVictor Northern Premier) Radcliffe have picked up just one point in their last 8 games and they have scored 6 goals in their last 10 whilst conceding 23. Lancaster look a good price at odds against to beat them. They are 3rd in the table at the moment and had a good win against Warrington last weekend. They ought to be capable of picking up 3 more points here. Potters Bar Town v AFC Hornchurch (BetVictor Isthmian Premier) As I mentioned when I took Potters Bar on a couple of weeks ago they tend to only be capable of beating teams lower in the table than them and struggle against the better teams in the league. Hornchurch are certainly one of those as Folkestone have been the only team to beat them in their last 10 matches. They look full of goals at the moment and have scored 7 in their last 2 matches. Like Lancaster I think they should be odds on to win this. Aveley v Chelmsford (FA Trophy) Into the FA Trophy now and I fancy Step 4 Aveley to cause an upset here. I don't think all is well at Chelmsford at the moment with the sacking of Rod Stringer last week and then they were beaten by Dulwich on Saturday. They look vulnerable against an Aveley side who in any other season would be likely title winners having lost just 3 games all season, but they are in the same division as Maldon & Tiptree so they are going to have to try and go up via the play-offs. Maldon are actually the only team to have beaten Aveley in their last 10 league games, but they are clearly better than a Step 4 side. This looks the perfect time to play Chelmsford as well so they are worth a bet. Barnet v Barrow (FA Trophy) Barrow suffered their first loss since October on Tuesday night when they went down 2-1 to Dover and I think they can lose again here. The team made their way down to London on Friday morning, but although the exact team isn't known Ian Evatt has said he will be using the fringe players of his squad. That isn't really a surprise given the position they have in the league and the fact they had a long journey on Tuesday night. I suspect we will see a strong Barnet side as they will see this as a good chance to progress to the next round and get a step closer to Wembley. Paul McCallum is a great signing and he should help them get the goals they have sometime been lacking. I would make them favourites myself. Ebbsfleet v Royston (FA Trophy) Royston like Aveley have been flying in their league of late and have also only been beaten in their last 10 games by the best side in their division, in this case Tamworth. They beat Chester 3-0 in the previous round and they certainly won't fear an Ebbsfleet side who look like they are going to be relegated back down to Step 2 this season. At 16/5 it looks a value play to me. Welling 1pt @ 2/1 with William Hill Kings Langley 2pts @ 197/100 with Marathon Gainsborough 1pt @ 6/4 with BetVictor Lancaster 3pts @ 11/10 with Marathon AFC Hornchurch 3pts @ 23/20 with Marathon Aveley 1pt @ 69/25 with Marathon Barnet 1pt @ 9/5 with Bet365 Royston 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365
  16. 13 points
    Darran

    Non-League Predictions > October 1st

    Saturday yet again showed the fine margins involved in football betting. Gloucester, Barrow and Halifax winning would have been OK, but for the two biggest bets to score winners so late on turned it into a fantastic day. I think it was a deserved change of luck after not having a great deal go right during September. There are a few games on Tuesday night and I like 4 bets at Step 3. Brightlingsea Regent v Enfield Town The home side are now without a manger after they blew a 2 goal lead against Lewes on Saturday, losing 3-2. They have now lost 3 on the bounce and they have only won 2 of their 9 league games so far. One of those came against bottom side Corinthian-Casuals although they did manage to be the only team to beat title favs Hornchurch so far this season. Hopefully one of my tips for the title Enfield can give them a 4th defeat on the trot. They are currently in 4th place and the only game they have lost in the league was a horror show against 4th placed Horsham. They have been seeing off the teams lower down in the table and should have too much for their hosts and are 36/25 with Marathon. Corinthian-Casuals v Horsham Casuals are really struggling in the league this season having failed to win a game and they featured in a dire game on Saturday against Pitters Bar which ended 0-0. It is amazing they managed to beat Chelmsford in the FA Cup given how badly they have done in the league, but that also means they may not have their full focus on this game given they have their next FA Cup game on Saturday against Kings Langely. For me at this stage of the season that will surely have more significance than this league game. Horsham's only league defeat this season came in a 1-0 loss against Folkestone who are top and undefeated. They have won 4 of their 5 away games and they are out of the Cup so don't have that to worry about. Granted they should have beaten Cheshunt easier on Saturday as they ended up with 9 men and the goal was an own goal, but I think Horsham should really be a shade of odds on so Marathon's 139/100 looks a cracking price. Merstham v Worthing Worthing have only played 7 league games so far this season, but they have only lost twice to the current top 2 in the division so the rest of their form looks decent. It does include a crazy 5-5 draw as well. 13 points from 7 games is a decent enough return. Merstham don't look anything special this season and 2 of their 3 wins so far have come against the bottom 2 sides and they have lost 3 of their last 4 games. Marathon's 51/25 looks too big about an away win to me. Scarborough v Basford United The slight concern here is that Scarborough have drawn all 4 of their home games this term which include bottom side Buxton and top side South Shields. Overall though they have only won once in the league and are currently in 17th place so I am happy enough with the price about Basford being the first team to pick up 3 points at Scarborough this season. Basford are in 4th and have only lost 3 of their 9 league games and they have been against top of the table South Shields, 3rd placed Matlock and 6th placed Grantham. Also key is their game on Saturday was called off and that could well prove crucial given Scarborough had a tough game against Warrington. I think Marathon's 46/25 is worth taking about an away win. Enfield Town 2pts @ 36/25 with Marathon Horsham 3pts @ 139/100 with Marathon Worthing 1pt @ 51/25 with Marathon Basford United 1pt @ 46/25 with Marathon
  17. 12 points
    With the kind permission of Paul's sister Kayla we have named the KO Cup in memory of 'Sir Puntalot' Without his drive and enthusiasm over the years the forum would not exist. Good luck guys and gals Rules for those who have forgot! Top 25 finishers from the NAPS Final table will qualify, minimum required bets will be needed which is 15 All players will play in Qualifying Round and top 8 scorers go forward to next round. Pairings seeded from finishing position after qualifying, 1v8, 2v7 and so on. Matches will be played on each of the Saturdays of that month. 3 Selections required each round, plus reserves if you desire. 1pt Win or 0.50pt EW can be selected, if no stake included a win bet will be awarded. Player with most profit will go forward to the next round, if a tie, a playoff will be played on the following day. From the 2nd Round onwards we operate a First come first served basis, player can not have the same selection as his opponent in his 3 main picks, if this happens it will be regarded as a loser, reserves will not be used in this case. The deadline for bets to be posted is 2pm All 3 selections must be posted at the same time in one post, no 10 minute ruling but before the 2pm deadline. Once in the head to head stages Selections can not be changed once your opponent has posted. Multiple horses from the same race is allowed. Reserves can be added in case of NR's but not if you or your opponents bet has started, so it makes sense to post the reserves in the original post. Horses can be posted after the deadline if a meeting is abandoned for any reason which includes selections. Prices can be taken as per the NAPS Table rules. Winner of the Cup will win £30 via PayPal account. Runner Up will win £10 via PayPal account.
  18. 12 points
    LeMale

    Latest Table - April 2020

    Well done @Craig bluenose on winning the nap comp this month and @roger2256 with his 13 winners to take the Most Winners title. (Great addition by the way Punters Lounge) Also congrats to all others in the money in yet another difficult month. Also a big thank you to @Sir Puntalot for the extra prize money this month, very generous indeed. And as always thanks to @BillyHills for running the comp which we all know has been made far more difficult with races all over the place and at different times, your time and effort is much appreciated in challenging times, Thank You. Keep Safe Everyone ❤️
  19. 12 points
    Cheltenham Tipsters Competition - Starts Tuesday March 10th Rules: 1 selection per race throughout the competition Bets settled to £1 level stakes - WIN Only Bets settled at SP Highest accumulative total over the competition wins £60 cash (via PayPal) Runner Up wins £25 and the third place wins £15, all prizes via your PayPal account. No edits allowed in selection posts No losses incurred for losers or Non Runners Replacement selections for NR's can be posted but must be before the first race deadline All Bets must be posted prior to the first race each day (no exceptions) Not compulsory to enter everyday (so if you miss the first day or two you can still take part) Leaderboard posted each evening All welcome, no need to register Winners will also receive PL Merchandise
  20. 12 points
    Darran

    Non-League Predictions > February 1st

    Thinks ticked over nicely towards the end of January and there was another small profit last weekend. Hopefully we can keep the profits coming on Saturday as we start a new month. AFC Fylde v Boreham Wood I am a bit surprised Boreham Wood aren't favourites here. They were one of the favourites to go down at the start of the season, but they have blown those odds out of the water and yet again Luke Garrard has got another good team together to rival the one that reached the play-off final two years ago. They have a real chance of getting in the play-offs again and they haven't lost in the league since October 26th. They got a superb draw against top of the table Barrow on Saturday and more than matched them as well. They travel to a Fylde side who haven't won in 8 league games now and they must be getting nervous about going back down to the National League North. It just hasn't quite been clicking for them since Jim Bentley took over and with Boreham Wood full of confidence right now I think they look a good price. Halifax v Bromley Bromley seem to have blown all hopes of winning the title in recent weeks. They have lost 3 games on the bounce and have only picked up 10 points in their last 10 games. They are struggling to reach the heights they were reaching in the early months of the season and Halifax are bang in form at the moment. Unbeaten in 6 and they have been impressive in their last two home wins against Maidenhead and on Tuesday against Dover. I am surprised that the away side are favourites for this as I would have Halifax no bigger than 5/4 to win this. Dorking v Bath City Granted Dorking haven't won in 4 league games, but they did beat Stockport in the FA Trophy and they were unlucky to lose to Weymouth on Saturday as they ended up with just 9 men on the pitch. They have scored a huge 24 goals in their last 10 league games, but have conceded 17 and that is with keeping 4 clean sheets! This could be the right time to be playing Bath as they were thrashed 7-0 on Saturday at Wealdstone and they then lost to Concord in the FA Trophy on Tuesday night. Every chance Bath will score, but I think Dorking can outscore them here. St Albans v Welling Welling have improved a lot under their new manager and he has changed plenty since owner Mark Goldberg decided to step down as boss. There are even rumours that Goldberg did the team talks from the beach on holiday for the 3 games they played over Christmas. They have won their last 2 games and they are clearly benefiting from having a proper manager in charge. St Albans are doing OK at the moment although have only picked up 1 victory in their last 6 and Welling look value at over 2/1 to make it 3 wins on the bounce. Gloucester City v Spennymoor The price is going on Spennymoor so am putting this one up first ahead of the others. Gloucester are in a right old mess at the moment. New manager James Rowe is so far proving to be totally inept in his first managerial role having won just one game in 10 matches since taking over. He has signed 13 players in that time and the new team has not gelled out all and unlike the players that have left they don't seem to have much fight. Part of the problem is a lot of the new players are on 18 month contracts so they are at a new club and don't have to play for a new contract either as they are already sorted for next season. On paper some of the players have a good background, but apart from Liam Daly and Matt McClure they haven't done it on the pitch for a while and they look dubious signings to me. Rowe has changed the team too quickly for me and they are playing like a team who don't know each other which is exactly what they are. City lost 6-1 to a Alfreton team who hadn't won at home since the beginning of September on Tuesday night which is a new low under Rowe. Now one slight concern is that sometimes you see a team react to a heavy defeat and Rowe will surely know he is close to getting the sack, but I am not sure the players are capable of playing for him. He is also still blaming the former manager for things despite the fact it is his team now. Spennymoor seem to have got over their blip they had in December and are clearly a much better side. The other thing that stops this being a max bet though is away from home they have drawn 7 times and won just twice so that has to be in the back of your mind. Even so I think this will be an away win and Spennymoor should be odds on. Alvechurch v Leiston Yes I am putting Leiston up again, but they look a cracking bet to beat an Alvechurch side who have lost 9 of their last 10 games and the one win was against Redditch who are bottom. Pointless repeating myself on Leiston and they got a good draw when I put them up last week, but we should get our money back here. Biggleswade v Stratford Town I am chancing Stratford again at a big price. There has been improvement for sure despite only picking up 1 point since beating Redditch 4 games ago. That game was on Tuesday night when they drew 3-3 with Hitchin. Biggleswade aren't in great form at the moment although they did beat St Ives easily on Saturday and to be fair the 4 games without a win were against the stronger sides in the division. Even so at around 4/1 Stratford seem a sporting play as they are playing better than their league position suggests. Boreham Wood 1pt @ 15/8 with Betway and William Hill Halifax 1pt @ 17/10 with Bet365, Betway and William Hill Dorking 1pt @ 31/20 with BetVictor Welling 1pt @ 85/40 with BetVictor Spennymoor 3pts @ 5/4 with BetVictor Leiston 2pts @ 33/25 with Marathon Stratford Town 1pt @ 21/5 with BetVictor
  21. 12 points
    Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Hugo Dellien at 2.00 with William Hill While I do understand the reasons for Basilashvili being the underdog in this one, I don't really agree with them. Basilashvili is still the classier player of the two and he's the defending champion, so I think that he's going to be prepared for the event after taking a break after Wimbledon. Dellien is having an excellent season in terms of win and losses, but most of his successes came on the lower level and he's had some weak performances recently, so I'd have Nikoloz as the favorite here and I'm quite surprised that we're getting evens for him.
  22. 11 points
    Final Table Amazing last day with Alley Cat Glover having 3 winners including a 150/1 shocker Bathtime For Rupert is so unlucky finishing second with over 80pts and Fader snuck on to the podium with a 4/1 winner on the last day. 11 players ended with over 50pts, a record for the competition. Many thanks for your continued support, 104 entries was tremendous Roll on Glorious Goodwood next month Prizes £60 : Alley Cat Glover + PL Merchandise £25 : Bathtime For Rupert + PL Merchandise £15 : Fader + PL Merchandise Winners send me your PayPal details, prize being claimed and your home address to; team@punterslounge.com
  23. 11 points
    Due to illness not only are the tips up later than usual, but there will be no previews either. At the moment there are 7 FA Trophy bets for Saturday. Blyth Spartans 1pt @ 9/5 with Bet365 Gainsborough 1pt @ 11/2 with Bet365 Maldon & Tiptree 1pt @ 16/5 with BetVictor Dartford 1pt @ 59/25 with Marathon Hornchurch 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365 Bognor Regis 1pt @ 29/10 with BetVictor Workington 1pt @ 4/1 with BetVictor, Betfred and William Hill Have now had chance to look at the National League and have added 2 bets Chorley 1pt @ 14/5 with Bet365 Bromley 1pt @ 17/10 with Bet365
  24. 11 points
    CzechPunter

    Tennis Tips - 2019 Off-Season

    Alright guys, the 2019 tennis season is more or less officially over, so it's time for a fairly long review of what happened. On the sporting side of things, I think that we had a fairly intriguing season. I am, of course, hugely disappointed that we don't have any new Grand Slam winners, with Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal splitting all four titles evenly, but Daniil Medvedev came agonizingly close in the US Open and I think that the final there was actually the match of the year for me. I reckon that some of you will claim that the Wimbledon finals were the real thing, but I unfortunately didn't actually get to see that one, so I have no idea about what actually happened apart from the scoreboard changes. I did get to watch Nadal-Medvedev in the middle of the night while a storm was raging outside, however, so yeah, that was an interesting experience :D. The second ATP story of the year that I'd like to highlight here was Murray's comeback, as I was genuinely convinced that he wouldn't be able to do much after his loss against.....er...I think it was Viola. He did grab a title afterwards in style, however, and I think that he might do even more in 2020. It's hard to say how much he can do in the physically-more-demanding Grand Slams, but he should be very dangerous everywhere else. As far as the WTA is concerned, well, it's still a mess, isn't it? And I think that we have Clijsters or someone coming back next year as well, which is honestly just crazy - if she's going to make it, it really is going to speak volumes about the difference between ATP and WTA, I really can't imagine that we'd have Radek Stepanek or someone making a singles comeback in the same vein :D. The Grand Slams were obviously quite exciting with the Williams story and with seven different players occupying those eight final places, which is just really good for the game imo. It's great to have Bianca coming up, but I'm really sad that Marketa Vondrousova is yet another of those great talents trapped in awfully frail bodies. I'm getting Djokovic vibes whenever I see her play for some reason, but, well, she's currently after a surgery and we haven't see her since Wimbledon, so I'm not sure what the state of affairs is going to be next year. On the forum side of things, the activity has picked up quite a bit in comparison with the previous season and we now have a nice mix of regulars and newcomers, so I'm really hoping that we are going to continue in the same fashion once the Australian Open starts. The passion always goes down a bit after the US Open and that is understandable, but I'd like to see all the guys here again in January. I'm not even going to name anyone, as I'm sure that I'd miss someone! In any case, I didn't even have to ban all that many people in 2019, which is just excellent! And, finally, the betting side of things. While I was hoping to get to the lower levels of the competition, I didn't get to that for all sorts of reasons, so there were no easy pickings to be found anywhere. I'm hoping to get to exploring that area next year, especially if everything is still going to be so difficult on the main tours, but that's not for now, that's for later - and January is going to be all about the main tour anyway. Results-wise, I'm happy to say that 2019 was another profitable year, although I must admit that it wasn't as great as I was hoping it to be. Overall, it appears that I managed to place a grand total of 292 bets and that I ended with a decent ROI of 103%. I know that many people are still actively debating what ROI is achievable long term, but it's really hard for me to contribute to that, as it really depends on a great many of factors. I'm certainly guilty of being a bit overactive, which leads to some bad bets here and there, and I'm also guilty of not trying to exploit ITFs and Challengers as often as possible. I am going to try to change that if given a chance - and should lead to at least somewhat better results. So, on that note, I hope that you are all going to have a great off-season, Christmas, etc., and I hope that we are all going to meet here either at the end of December or at least for the start of the Australian Open (January 20). I thank you all for being here and contributing!
  25. 10 points
    Hi guys, hope you are keeping safe and well. German football is back and the Spanish has just had the go ahead for a mid June re-start. The Premier League is not far off either so we can start to think about how we are going to finish the season in the competition. We will start where we left off from with all players in their current divisions. I know we will probably get a fair few no shows but this is only to be expected. We shall just go with it, the competition will be there for those who want to play. I want to keep the fixtures to weekends only if possible as putting an extra set of game in midweek causes issues with people getting access to the site etc.... I propose to begin as soon as we get either the Spanish or the Premier League to go alongside the German games, some Div 2 fixtures may be included as will some other countries if we need them. I reckon we need 4 divisions at least to create a worthwhile fixture list for the competition. The various markets we are used to may not be available for all divisions but at least we can move on. Speak later BH
  26. 10 points
    BillyHills

    Proposals For Competition - May 2020

    Naps Competition in May Once again Punters Lounge will be paying enhanced prize money for the Naps competition during May. We may even get some European action with France, Germany, Ireland and the UK all threatening to return soon behind closed doors. The KO Cup comp will return and the qualifiers from March will be eligible to enter on Saturday May 2nd. We will accept bets from any racing from around the world during MAY and all bets outside of Europe will be settled at the Industry SP which appears on the ATR or the Hills Results section. (*Racing Post publish dividend prices which will be different from the Industry SP) **SP ONLY ON USA, AUSTRALIA, HONG KONG Racing** Prices accepted on European Racing We realise backing horses from the other side of the world is not everyones cup of tea and fully understand those that choose to sit it out until things get back to normal. I will continue to put the daily threads up and try and pinpoint what action is talking place. Just be aware of the off times, some US and AUS Racing will be very early in the morning. Prize Money For MAY = £350 1st: £100 PL Merchandise 2nd: £75 PL Merchandise 3rd: £50 PL Merchandise 4th: £25 KO Cup: Winner £40 : Runner Up £10 Tipster with most winners with at least £10 profit will receive a £50 bonus Many thanks for the continued support All the best
  27. 10 points
    Darran

    Non-League Predictions > February 22nd

    Weather could have a say yet again tomorrow so will be brief with these. There are 4 big price singles plus a treble. Torquay v Halifax Don't get why Torquay are being so well backed here against a bang in form Halifax side. Unbeaten in 7 in the league, whilst Torquay have only won twice in 10. Torquay have not played since Feburary 1st either so could easily be ring rusty going into this game. Given Halifax are 3rd and looking strong for a play-off place and they are playing Torquay who are only 5 points clear of the relegation zone. 3/1 on away win is a huge price. Chester v Brackley Another baffling price change as somehow Brackley are favourites to win at Chester. This is a Chester side who have only lost twice at home all season and won 10 times and beat leaders Kings Lynn on Tuesday. Brackley haven't won in 5 now and when I saw the prices I thought Brackley were at home. Chester at 21/10 is huge and for me the prices are the wrong way round. Chelmsford v Slough Taking advantage of another massive drift as Slough are over 2/1 to beat Chelmsford having been as short at 11/10. Chelmsford managed to beat Tonbridge on Monday, but it was a poor game that could have gone either way. They still look a poor side low on confidence to me and Slough are 2nd having lost just twice in their last 10 games. They look a big price as I would have them as favourites. Salisbury v Hendon Happy to take a chance on Hendon here as they have won 6 on the bounce now and Salisbury have only managed to beat Dorchester in their last 5 games. Don't think there is much between these sides so 3/1 on an away win is big. Treble Basford host Atherton who had to postpone a game in the week because an outbreak of mumps went through the side. Every chance they will be weakened here in what is already a very tough game for them anyway. Royston should beat a Hednesford side who are dropping off big time and in the same division Tamworth should outclass Biggleswade. The treble is 2.7/1 with Marathon. Halifax 2pts @ 3/1 with Betway Chester 2.5pts @ 21/10 with Bet365, William Hill and BetVictor Slough 1pt @ 21/10 with BetVictor Hendon 1pt @ 3/1 with BetVictor Basford/Royston/Tamworth 1pt Treble @ 2.7/1 with Marathon
  28. 10 points
    Darran

    Non-League Predictions > January 4th

    Leiston got us off to a good start on New Year's Day, but the 3pm kick offs weren't as kind and there was a small loss on the day in the end. There look to be some good bets on Saturday mainly at Step 3. Kettering v Farsley Celtic I am leaving the National League alone this weekend as it looks a tricky set of fixtures so I start with this game in the National League North which has already seen the home side being backed. Quite why they were 2/1 I don't know, but I still think there is some juice in the price. In my view they should be favourites. As I wrote last Saturday they were unbeaten under Paul Cox going into the Boston game which they were unlucky to lose. They then went to Brackley on Wednesday and got a very good point against an in form side. Farsley seem very in and out and although they beat Bradford 5-0 over Christmas they did lose both games to Guiseley. I think Kettering are the better side and I would have them around 5/4 so the 9/5 available is a big price for me. Leamington v Altrincham On the face of it Leamington are in good form having lost just 2 of their last 8 games, but they have lost George Carline who was on loan from Solihull and he was a key player in their good run of form. By all accounts he bossed the game against Gloucester on Boxing Day and without him Gloucester beat them 2-1 on Wednesday. Altrincham's overall form is good as they have only lost once in their last 9 league games, but their away form isn't as good as it should be with their win at Curzon on Boxing Day being their only away win in the league so far. They did lose at Bradford which isn't great, but prior to that they had got a very good 2-2 at Kings Lynn so it suggests they are improving on the road. I wouldn't want to chase the price down too much, but I do think the 19/10 is too big. Cheshunt v Kingstonian Into the Isthmian Premier Division and I am very keen on Kingstonian here. Their only defeat in their last 10 league games was against Bognor and they have certainly found their form compared to earlier in the season when they were drawing too many matches. They have only lost 4 league games so fr and whilst they might be a bit too far behind to be winning the title they certainly have every right to be thinking they can get into the play-offs. Meanwhile Cheshunt have only won 4 games all season and have only picked up 4 points in their last 10 games. The only points they have been picking up have been against either teams in poor form or the teams around them in the table and it is hard to see them being up to getting anything from this game against a bang in form team. Corinthian Casuals v Leatherhead Kingstonian are 4th in the 10 game form table which Leatherhead currently top having got 25 points out of a possible 30. That is some run of form and interestingly their last 7 victories have all been by a single goal including when they won the reverse fixture 2-1 back in November. What that means is they are very strong defensively whilst they are able to get the crucial goal or goals down the other end. Take out the 3-0 defeat to East Thurrock and they have only let in 4 goals in the other 9 games. Casuals have picked up 4 points in their last 2 games, but they were playing Wingate & Finchley and Cheshunt so that doesn't really amount to a great deal and this match is a big rise in class of opponent. Leatherhead look a big price at odds against. Alvechurch v Royston The BetVictor Southern Premier League Central has been pretty kind to us and hopefully Royston can add to the profits on Saturday. They should be well odds on for me to beat one of the weakest sides in the division. They did manage to win on Wednesday, but that was against Redditch who are detached at the bottom and then they only won 3-2. Royston have only lost one of their last 10 games and they have put 5 past Lowestoft and 4 past Peterborough Sports in their last 3 games. A shade of odds against looks a good bet to me. Hendon v Weston Super Mare At 90 minutes Weston were losing 2-1 to Truro on Wednesday, but 3 minutes later they were 3-2 in front as they scored 2 goals in injury time to take the points. Having beaten Taunton on Boxing Day as well Weston have now won 4 on the bounce and they finally seem to be showing the form they ought to have been showing all season. They have added to the squad in the last 2/3 weeks and they look even stronger because of it. Hendon cost us on Boxing Day when losing to Harrow and they not surprisingly lost to Chesham on New Year's Day. If Weston continue in the vein the have they ought to be making it 5 on the bounce. Kettering 2pts @ 7/4 with BetVictor Altrincham 1pt @ 19/10 with Bet365 Kingstonian 4pts @ 31/20 with BetVictor Leatherhead 3pts @ 11/8 with BetVictor Royston 3pts @ 21/20 with Marathon Weston Super Mare 2pts @ 141/100 with Marathon
  29. 10 points
    Darran

    Non-League Predictions > November 26th

    Good news is I am feeling better than I was so I can write some previews. Sadly Saturday's bets showed a small loss as although the two National League bets were winners, none of the 7 FA Trophy ones won despite some near misses. There is another Tuesday night with a full National League fixture list and I have 3 bets there with one more coming from the FA Trophy replays. Chesterfield v Hartlepool I was never that convinced by Chesterfield even when they were in a good spell of form and some of their defending of late has been schoolboy stuff. They conceded 3 against Chorley and Harrogate in their last two games and prior to that it was a 2-2 draw with Ebbsfleet. Having seen the goals they have been conceding it is no surprise they have been so leaky. I really do think Hartlepool are better than their league position suggests and hopefully Dave Challinor can get them playing a bit more consistently than they have been so far this season. They have drawn 3 of their last 4 league games 2-2 and the other was a 1-0 defeat against Solihull. Challinor should have had a win in his first league game in charge but Ebbsfleet came from 2 down and then on Saturday they had a bit of fortune coming from 2 down themselves against Boreham Wood who did deserve to win. I think Hartlepool are the better side, it is just a case of if they can actually prove it on the pitch. It would certainly seem we will be in for goals and hopefully Chesterfield's defence are feeling every bit as generous as they have been of late. They certainly shouldn't be as big as Betfair's 29/10 for me. Eastleigh v Torquay I know it seemed strange to beat putting Chorley up on Saturday especially with no explanation, but Torquay have been struggling with injuries and it showed when Sutton beat them the previous weekend. With Chorley winning at Chesterfield as mentioned above that meant I thought they had a much better chance than the odds suggested and I was proven spot on as Chorley fully deserved their win. They now have to go straight into another away trip at Eastleigh who although I don't think are anything special they are very consistent and have actually only lost one of their last 9 games. They look over priced here to me given Torquay's issues at the moment. Notts County v Boreham Wood I mention Chesterfield's shocking defending of late above, but Notts County have hardly been much better and have also been conceding embarrassing goals recently. Yes Barrow are top, but County really did make it quite easy for them at times and then they were poor at Aldershot on Saturday. Granted at home they have been strong in general, but clearly they are a bit shaky at the moment and Boreham Wood have been putting in some good performances recently. They are unbeaten in 4 having drawn 3 of those, but that includes a 1-1 draw with Yeovil as well as that draw with Hartlepool on Saturday. These two teams only have 1pt and 1 place between them at the moment and Wood certainly have the players to punish County if they continue to perform as they have been at the moment. County are the right favs, but I would have the away side around the 2/1 mark so the 100/30 with Betfair is value to me. Alfreton v Blyth Spartans We were very unlucky not to collect with Blyth on Saturday and they certainly look value to me at 7/2 to take this at the 2nd time of asking. As I have mentioned of late Blyth are much improved and don't look a side that are at the wrong end of the table as they are after their dreadful start to the season. I am more than happy to back them again. Hartlepool 1pt @ 29/10 with Betfair Eastleigh 2pts @ 147/100 with Marathon Boreham Wood 1pt @ 100/30 with Betfair Blyth Spartans 1pt @ 7/2 with Bet365
  30. 10 points
    Darran

    Non-League Predictions > August 6th

    Bit of a disappointing opening day of the season with only Dulwich winning although at least they were the Naps. Telford and Boston ought to have won as should the double, but that's the way it goes sometimes. There were some interesting results and I was kicking myself for not opposing Notts County who couldn't even muster a shot on target against Eastleigh. It seems to me they are a long way from having a side being competitive at the right end of the table and as much as I would love to oppose them on Tuesday night they host a Stockport side who looked pretty poor in the live game against Maidenhead so it's hard to want to back them after that even against Notts County. There are 7 teams I do like the look off though. Solihull Moors v Torquay As I wrote in my ante-post preview I thought that Torquay were, along with Notts County, the worst value to win the title. They won their first game back at this level when beating Boreham Wood 2-1 on Saturday, but they were up against 10 men for a lot of the game which would clearly made things easier for them. This game will be a much tougher test as they face last year's runners-up. Solihull got off to a solid start at the weekend drawing 2-2 with Harrogate in an exciting game which really should have been the live TV choice. They were really hard to beat at home last season and I fully expect it to be the same this time around. I think they should be closer to even money, to beat a team they should finish above come the end of the season, than they are so at 6/5 they look worth backing. Woking v Aldershot Both teams I tipped to go down won on Saturday although that still doesn't mean they won't be in a relegation scrap and I think the odds compliers have over reacted to Woking's win at Dagenham on Saturday. I just wonder if it was a good time to face Dagenham though who have had a big change in players and look like they might take a bit of time to gel. Granted Aldershot have had an even bigger turnover, but they also have a brand new manager which means it is a bit of a different story. They held their own against title favs Fylde on Saturday and that will give them a bit of confidence in this big local derby. I'd imagine both these sides will be in a relegation scrap and therefore the 3/1 on offer about the away side looks big as I wouldn't go any bigger than 2s myself. Yeovil v Eastleigh Eastleigh face the other relegated side after beating Notts County on Saturday. It doesn't sound like they played especially well and there is every chance they faced Notts County at the right time, but they could easily be facing Yeovil at the right time as well. Granted it as only a penalty that beat them on Saturday against Barnet. They did start off well, but manager Darren Sarll mentioned after the game that it was going to be a massive learning curve for a group of players who have been forced together late on. Eastleigh are a more settled side, albeit one who looks weaker on paper than last years, but their experience at this level could prove to be the deciding factor here as it did for them on Saturday. They look a big price at 12/5. Eastbourne v Tonbridge I think Eastbourne look the best bet of the night. They held out until injury time against Billericay and although disappointing to lose so late on I would imagine Lee Bradbury was happy enough with the performance. They should be more than capable of picking up the 3 points here as I am happy to continue to take on Tonbridge. Dulwich went down to 10 men early on, but were still able to take the lead and although Tonbridge ended up with their keeper being sent off and had an outfielder in goal, but Dulwich manager Gavin Rose decided to play it safe and just hold on for the 2-1 win rather than go for the 3rd goal. It worked nicely as although Tonbridge tried to find an equaliser Dulwich saw the game out. Eastbourne look capable of improving on their poor season last time around and look an a better side than Tonbridge who may well go straight back down. The home side look a fair price at 11/8. Dorking v Hemel Hempstead Hemel were very impressive on Saturday and arguably put in the most impressive performance in the division beating Hungerford 4-1. Sammy Moore has put together a decent side and although Dorking should go well this season they are missing some key players at the moment and that could prove key in a fixture against one of the leagues better sides. Dorking beat Slough thanks to a controversial injury time goal after the linesman put his flag up for offside only to put it down again and the Slough defence had stopped. Slough can consider themselves unfortunate to have lost that and Hemel will be even stronger opposition. Marathon are way overpriced on the away win for me at 93/50. Concord v Chelmsford I got Concord wrong on Saturday as they ended up with a very comfortable 3-0 victory over Oxford City, but I am taking them on again here against a Chelmsford side who also had a 3 goal win beating Hampton 4-1. I think my problem with going with Oxford on Saturday was that I was keen to take on Concord and I didn't think Oxford were going to be as bad as they were, but I clearly overrated the Oxford side. Chelmsford are certainly much better than Oxford and I am prepared to back them here to hopefully back up my view that Concord will not do a great deal this season. I would certainly have Chelmsford as favs here and not as big as Marathon's 17/10. Bradford Park Avenue v Guiseley Just the one bet in the National League North on Tuesday. I was tempted to back Hereford to beat Gloucester as I think they will in a game where there are likely to be more away fans than home fans, but I think the price is about right so am leaving it (whilst obviously hoping Gloucester can somehow manage a win). Instead I will back Guislely at just under 6/4 to beat their Yorkshire rivals. As much as I didn't expect BPA to do much this season I certainly would not have thought they would have lost 5-0 to Curzon Ashton. Now granted their could be a positive response to that drubbing, but if you are losing 5-0 to Curzon that suggests you aren't very good. Now I would have had Guiseley as another bottom 6 side ahead of Saturday, but they were impressive in beating Kings Lynn 3-0 and with a performance like that behind them they will be full of confidence going into this. If BPA are every bit as bad as that opening day defeat suggests they are then the away side have to be backed. Solihull 1pt @ 121/100 with Marathon Aldershot 1pt @ 3/1 with BetVictor Eastleigh 1pt @ 12/5 with BetVictor Eastbourne 2pts @ 11/8 with BetVictor Hemel Hempstead 1pt @ 93/50 with Marathon Chelmsford 1pt @ 17/10 with Marathon Guiseley 1pt @ 147/100 with Marathon
  31. 10 points
    Darran

    Non-League Predictions > August 3rd

    The first weekend of the season can be tricky for punters and it is wise to take things fairly carefully. On the other hand you are testing your view of how teams will get on throughout the season and their can be prices about teams that you think will do well that wouldn't exist later in the season. I have 6 bets on the opening day and although none of them are as lumpy as some of the prices I landed on the final day of last season it would be nice if it was just as successful! Hartlepool v Sutton Just the one bet in the National League on the first weekend. I was tempted by AFC Fylde away at Aldershot as it is the type of game they need to win if they are to be champions. The problem is it was just the type of game they failed to win last season and I would rather wait to see how they perform away from home before taking this sort of price about them. Wouldn't put anyone off backing Barnet at home to Yeovil, but they looked about the right price to me. I was desperate to oppose Notts County who look woefully under prepared going into the start of the season. The problem is I don't rate this Eastleigh squad much so I am going to sit it out. Halifax are the same as Notts County, but Ebbsfleet has be priced accordingly and I don't think there is any juice in the price. That leaves me with this match and if you have read my ante-post preview its probably no surprise that I am putting Hartlepool up to making a winning start at 11/8. They look capable of mounting a serious challenge for promotion this season having improved once Craig Hignett took over as manager last season. Now Paul Doswell has left Sutton it looks like they are in a period of transition and it might take a bit of time for them to get up and running and even then they only look capable of mid-table. Boston v Chester I think Chester are poor 2nd favs for the league. They might reach the play-offs, but I can't see them winning the league as their squad doesn't look strong enough. I know I don't pay a great deal of attention to pre-season friendlies and there is a chance that the players were taking it easy, but Chester were well beaten by FCUM on Tuesday night. One of their joint-managers had a right go at the performance after the game in an interview with the press and suggested that a win over Trafford on Saturday had papered over the cracks. It was a pretty scathing view of the team just a few days before the start of the season. It could be that the players respond to that and go and put in a performance in the first league game, but it might just be that the managers have recruited poorly. Also in 11 seasons in management they have only won their opening day fixture once and that was in 2010, they couldn't even manage it whilst they were at Salford. There has to be something in that and Boston, who look stronger than last season, could well be primed to take full advantage. It looks a pretty tough opening game and Boston will look a big price at 143/100. Kettering v AFC Telford Kettering have had a very messy summer. Their manager left in slightly mysterious circumstances and players left some claiming they hadn't been paid all the money they were promised. I think they look possible relegation candidates at this stage and they especially look worth taking on in the early part of the season. Telford's away form let them down last season and that is a slight concern, but they look to have a decent side again and they should be capable of picking up 3 points here. Oxford City v Concord Concord had a great season last time around and finished in the play-offs, but for some reason their chairman couldn't be bothered to get the ground up to National League standard so they couldn't compete in them. Like Kettering their manager Sammy Moore then left in mysterious circumstances and when he joined Hemel quite a few players left with him. They look nowhere near the side they were last season and I think they could be in for a relegation battle. City have lost their star striker to Boreham Wood and that will hurt them, but on paper they look a better side than Concord and I am happy to back them at 13/10. Tonbridge v Dulwich Dulwich look the best bet on the opening weekend. They have already been nibbled in the betting before I put them up and that doesn't surprise me at all. As I mentioned in my AP preview Gavin Rose looks to have built a good side this time around and one that can score goals which was a problem at times last season. Now their off the field issues have been sorted it looks like they are able to spend some cash which you would expect a club who can attract 3000 fans to have. Tonbridge came up through the play-offs, but it wouldn't be a big surprise if they went straight back down and I certainly think these two sides will be at opposite ends of the table come April. 13/8 looks a big price on an away win. Bath City v Braintree and Havant & Waterlooville v Welling Bath would have been a single if they had stayed odds against, but they have gone a shade of odds on so I am putting them in a double with Havant who also look a pretty solid home win. As I wrote in my AP preview Braintree look really weak going into the new season. Their budget has been slashed and they are relaying on players making the step up from leagues below. I think they won't be too far away from the relegation zone. Bath had a good season last time around and they look like being a play-off contender yet again. It's no surprise they are now odds on because they should be. Havant are one of my tips for the title and they really ought to get their season underway with 3 points. Welling look much worse than last season after finishing 3rd. Steve King has gone and after already cutting costs during last season they have done again. I think they will be lucky to finish in the top half this time around. With the double paying 2.3/1 with Marathon that looks a decent price Hartlepool 1pt @ 11/8 with BetVictor Boston 2pts @ 143/100 with Marathon AFC Telford 1pt @ 77/50 with Marathon Oxford City 1pt @ 13/10 with Betway and BetVictor Dulwich 3pts @ 13/8 with BetVictor Bath City/Havant & Waterlooville 2pts double @ 2.3/1 with Marathon
  32. 9 points
    richard-westwood

    Value or bust

    Scarlet dragon Gets up close home .....the ultimate value bet 42.0!!...crazy price ...el misk non runner 35 bets ...bank now 1150 !!......in 10 days (+150)
  33. 9 points
    Hopefully people have enjoyed my Road To The Cheltenham Foxhunter thread and it has helped keep everyone up to date with a race that always gets overlooked by the mainstream (and less mainstream) press despite the fact quite a lot of people actually are interested especially when you have well known horses like Minella Rocco and Don Poli involved. If you haven't seen and want to see my thoughts over the last 3 or so months then that thread is here https://forum.punterslounge.com/topic/171460-road-to-the-cheltenham-foxhunters/ This year's preview clocks in at just under 4000 words and apparently will take just under 15 minutes to read. I can't guarantee I will find the winner, but hopefully it will help guide you to what you want to back in the race. I have yet to see a more in depth preview of the race so without further or do here are my thoughts on the 31 horses remaining in this year's Cheltenham Foxhunter. Alcala - Rather unusually looks set to be Paul Nicholls' only runner in this race this year. Classy horse as his peak mark of 152 suggests and he won the Summer Plate at Market Rasen in 2017 off 142. He looked set to win on his first start since July 2018 when falling 2 out at Ludlow. He then made amends when winning the Walrus at Haydock getting the better of Wishing And Hoping despite making a bad error 2 out. After that he had to go to Fontwell to qualify for this and I don't think Angus Cheleda was overly hard on him at all given he knew he only had to finish 2nd to qualify. His trainer spoke of him having two hard races, but I find it hard to believe he had much of a race last time out. My concern about his chance is his stamina. At Ludlow they went no pace so it turned into a sprint, Haydock was over 2m6f and again they went a steady enough gallop as they did over 3m2f at Fontwell. The race he won over 3m2f in 2017 was a match. If he stays he is a player, but it is enough to put me off. Arctic Skipper - Won his first two points this season, but was a well beaten 8th at Down Royal behind Dylrow on Boxing Day. He won a 3 runner point last month, but a week later pulled up and it is hard to see him being good enough. Billaway - Willie Mullins has been talking his chances up in recent weeks and I can see why given he seems to be progressive and visually he ran out an impressive winner at Naas in January. That was his 2nd run of the season having run a nice race on his return to be 2nd at Down Royal on Boxing Day just going down a length to Dylrow. That Naas race was run at an absolute crawl though and it turned into a sprint which clearly suited him perfectly. To me that makes the form a bit suspect and I can see the 2nd reversing form with him for reasons I will state later. I certainly think he is one of the possible winners though given his profile offers more than most here, but I certainly don't think his price offers any value. Bishops Road - Thrashed a very good horse in Risk A Fine at the hunter chase meeting here in May, but the 2nd didn't handle the track or the ground that day so I wouldn't take it at face value. Bizarrely he then ran in a point 3 days later when he fell. I now wonder if they were trying to qualify him for this and get it out of the way. Instead they had to do that this season and he did so when finishing 2nd in the first hunter chase of the season at Taunton. That was behind Wishing And Hoping and he was 2nd on his seasonal return in a point back in November. For me he has a bit too find although the trip shouldn't be a concern given he used to run over further. Caid du Berlais - The first of a trio of runners for Rose Loxton and a horse I have already put up as a bet last month. As long as the ground continues to dry out I think he has a massive chance. He ran really well on soft ground when beaten less than 4L when 5th to Pacha Du Polder in 2018. He then went onto land the Punchestown Champion Hunters Chase by 21L. Last year he had a rushed prep as he picked up a minor injury and he only made his reappearance 12 days before the race. He then ran no sort of race and he was never travelling before pulling up. He then went back to Punchestown and won by an even bigger margin, 28L, than last year. This year he has had a much smoother prep as he made his seasonal return at Buckfastleigh in January and he beat Marcle Ridge by 5L which is really solid form. His trainer has mentioned she is not sure if he gets up the hill and that was the case in 2018, but if we have quicker ground on Friday I think he will. He is also 2 years older now which should help. His two Punchestown wins are two of the best pieces of form in the race and he has to go on any shortlist. Chosen Dream - Landed the Stratford Foxhunter in 2018, but was flattered by that as the ground was over watered which meant the fancied horses disappointed. He pulled up in this last year and although I am told he is really well on form it is hard to make much of a case for him Don Bersy - Won a couple of points last season, but shown better form this term for me as he beat Bishops Road in November, was 2nd to The Dellercheckout and then won by 20 at Thorpe Lodge. He then refused to race last month which is something he did in his last two starts under Rules. That has to be a big concern if you are wanting to back him, but his form doesn't look good enough anyway. His previous Rules form was all over 2m as well. Don Poli - Rare that a point to point makes the front page of the Racing Post, but he did when winning at Alnwick back in December. I think it was a good idea to send the horse to Nick Pearce to get him qualified nice and early in a couple of points. He is already a duel Festival winner having won the Martin Pipe in 2014 and then the RSA Chase the following year. In 2016 he was 3rd in the Gold Cup and he was the Lexus winner that season as well. So he clearly has plenty of back class, but the problem is he had shown any form under Rules since February 2017. He appreciated the drop in class when winning those points, but he had to be niggled in both races to keep him interested and he was made to work quite hard to win the 2nd of them. Winning a couple of small field, weak points is one thing, winning a Foxhunter is a totally different ball game though. No doubt Nick had left a bit to work on, but I wasn't impressed with what I saw at Alnwick and I think in a big field in a race that is likely to be strongly run that he will just drop himself out and not fancy it. What I will say though is if you do want to back him because he hasn't been seen since January he has been forgotten about and you are probably getting a bigger price than if he had run recently or in a hunter chase. Dunhallow Tornado - Ollie Pimlott has had a cracking start to his training career and this is a horse I really like. He looked impressive in two hunter chase wins at Catterick and Kelso 2 years ago and then found the ground too quick at Cheltenham's hunter chase night. Unfortunately he had to miss last season through injury and he returned last month at Brocklesby when getting up close home to score. That was a pleasing come back run and if it did happen to be soft/heavy on Friday I would want to be backing him. The problem is the forecast is suggesting it isn't going to be that testing and as much as he will handle it my thinking is it brings more horses into play the quicker it gets. Connections will probably be wishing this race had been on Tuesday when it was very testing and although I think he can out run his price, the drying ground is enough to stop me backing him. Dylrow - Looks an improved horse this season having beaten Mighty Stowaway on his first point start in November. He then beat Billaway at Down Royal on Boxing Day. He was then only 5th at Naas behind him the following month. That race turned into a sprint as mentioned so I do think the form is suspect, but given he was winning over 2m a year ago you would have thought that would have suited him. There is a case to say that he shouldn't really be 50/1 based on the Down Royal effort, but he wouldn't be for me. Hazel Hill - Last year's impressive winner and currently favourite to retain his crown as Salsify, On The Fringe and Pacha Du Polder have done in recent years. There is no doubt he was the best hunter chaser around last season although there has to be a question mark about what sort of form he is currently in. After the Foxhunter win he came back for hunter chase night and just got the better of a great battle with Caryto Des Brosses. He was set to follow the same path to Cheltenham as he did last season, but Chaddesley Corbett was called off and that meant Warwick came too soon after his win at Sheriff Hutton. That told us little new, but it is the defeat to Minella Rocco at Wetherby which is the issue. He jumped badly to his right there something which he didn't do in this race year, but he did do here in May. My feeling is a small field might be to blame for that and with more horses around him he will jump straighter. I don't think he wants to make the running and that didn't help matters at Wetherby. The trainer said afterwards he was a bit sore so that was one excuse and I also think Derek O'Connor out rode Alex Edwards as well. I will talk more about that later, but I do think at the very least he will reverse form. The problem is he is hard to want to back at the current price because of his run last time and although I do think we will see a different horse here I would want a drift before backing him. The trainer is confident of a big showing and he could be a horse to get onside on the day because I think he will drift and then the doubt about what sort of form he is in will be factored into the price. If he is in the same form as last year then he clearly has a massive chance. It Came To Pass - Beat Billaway in a hunter chase at Cork last April and then probably would have finished a distant 2nd to Caid Du Berlais at Punchestown, but he unseated at 2 out. 10 days later he did then beat On The Fringe at Killarney. He won a hunter chase at Cork in Novemeber which was basically his seasonal debut as he unseated at the first the week before. Was a 24L 7th to Dylrow and Down Royal and was pulled up last time out. On balance his form suggests he has a fair bit to find. Law Of Gold - Was progressive last season and it ended in winning the John Corbet at Stratford in May. I didn't think it was the strongest renewal of the race especially as some fancied horses disappointed. Having said that Pink Eyed Pedro was 3rd and he has done well in handicaps since. He has had just the one start so far this season at Horseheath when running out an easy winner. That wasn't a strong race, but he could do no more win than as he did. The problem is I think he needs good ground and any soft in it is not going to help him. This is by far the best race he has ever been in as well and at 7 it could just be it comes at least a year too soon for him. Marcle Ridge - Won a very weak race here on hunter chase night and then was 2nd at Warwick. At the time it didn't look a great effort, but given Killaro Boy nearly won a huge prize at Uttoxeter in the summer then he did well finish within 9L of him. As mentioned above he was 2nd to Caid Du Berlais on his only run of the season so far. That was a solid effort, but also his form suggests he has to find a bit to hit the frame here. Minella Rocco - I suspect plenty of non hunter chase experts will be all over him on Friday and we will see plenty of at at his best he is the best horse in the race. I have already seen two TV presenters put him up as one of their best bets of the meeting which is crazy given they know little about hunter chases and you can be certain that neither will know anything about a horse like Law Of Gold for example. Maybe he will win, but all I keep hearing about his chances is that he was 2nd in a Gold Cup and he has won at the Festival before. The problem is that was 3 and 4 years ago now and since then he has basically been pretty poor and he was even struggling to complete. His two hunter chase wins this season were only his 2nd and 3rd wins over fences and I think he was fortunate to win those. At Warwick he benefited from Maxwell getting cramp on Bob And Co and then looked like getting beat by a horse could Kashmir Peak who has been beaten in a weak hunter chase and a weak point since. Derek O'Connor came over for the ride at Wetherby and he gave him a very clever ride to win the race and the chances are Hazel Hill ran below form. Derek kept him wide on the better ground and left it late to pounce. Reading between the lines of what Derek has written in his column in the Racing Post I don't think he fancies his chances at all and it was no surprise to me that he has said he will be riding Staker Wallace on the preview circuit. If the ground dried out a lot then I can see he will change to Minella Rocco as Staker Wallace needs cut in the ground. In my view he will get back into a bigger field at a strong pace and decide he doesn't fancy it again. I'd be tempted to place lay him on the day if he's a short enough price. Horses of his sort of profile rarely win the race nowadays and it will be a case of non hunter chase experts 1 hunter chase experts 0 if he does go and win (as was the case when Pacha Du Polder first won the race). Update: Since writing the above Derek O'Connor has surprised everyone by going with Minella Rocco over Staker Wallace. For me this could mean 3 things. 1 he things the ground is going to dry out too much for Staker Wallace and/or Minella Rocco has been working the house down at Jonjo's and he has had to go with him and/or he things the Irish horses aren't as good as the British. Now Derek has chosen him I am not as negative on his chances as I was before, although I still personally can't back him. Mr Mercurial - Been such a consistent hunter chaser over the years and his Scottish Foxhunter win was his 9th hunter chase success. I don't think he stays this far round a track like Cheltenham and he was 12th in this back in 2016 and was the same position at Aintree last year. Will run his race, but will be surprised if he is good enough to get close. Rewritetherules - Sprung onto the hunter chase scene in May last year when winning at Down Royal and Tipperary in the space of 3 days. His next run was in a handicap where he was only 6th off 116. This season he beat a useful enough field first up and then struggled to win a weak race last month. On the face of it that was a very poor effort, but the trainer said he had a stone bruise the week before and the owners were keen to run as it was their local meeting. His jockey said he got there too soon and he idled as well. So we should be expecting more here and he is progressive, but he is only 6 and you have to be very good to win this race as young as that. I am happy to pass him over. Sausalito Sunrise - Beat Ravished at Hexham last April in a hunter chase when with his former connections, but then was very disappointing at Worcester. Won the Lord Ashton Of Hyde's Cup at Cocklebarrow over 3m6f on his only start for his new connections. That was a decent enough effort, but nowhere near the level for this. Shantou Flyer - Ran a huge race to be 2nd in the race last year especially as he had to run twice in 10 days to qualify for the race after being 5th at Warwick behind Hazel Hill on his first hunter chase start. He narrowed that gap to 4L in this contest. He is now at former Paul Nicholls worker Rose Loxton's yard and he made a winning return at Larkhill in a race which has actually worked out very well. Given he was below par on his seasonal return last season I fully expect him to carry on improving and he was totally dominate at Fakenham where he had Tully Touch 25L back in 3rd and giving him 11lbs whereas Law Of Gold only beat him 12L off level weights. It was good to see Maxwell choosing to run him over Bob And Co as I think that is the right decision. The owner/rider has even said he feels a better horse this time around. He is only 10 as well and I think he has a massive chance. Southfield Theatre - Gave Lily Bradstock a lovely spin round in the race last year when 9th although that was 48L behind Hazel Hill. Did well to win the 4m race on hunter chase night here and has won two of his three points this season. On the other he was beaten by Virak which was still a decent effort. Hard to see how he can really improve on last year's 9th though. Staker Wallace - Has been a hard horse to keep sound as since making his debut in November 2015 he has only run 6 times. In 2017 on just his 4th start and after wining a maiden point he ran a really credible 3rd to Foxrock at Leopardstown. He then had 3 years off before running a huge race to finish an 8L 2nd at Naas. Given the lay off you can upgrade the performance and he followed that up with beating a solid yardstick in a point to make sure he qualified for this. Derek has been talking him up on the preview circuit and it is clear he holds him in high regard. At this stage to me he is the main Irish hope in the race. He does need soft ground so he wouldn't want to dry out and if it did I can see Derek not riding or him even not running in the race. If Derek's name is next to his on Wednesday morning then I think he will end up going off favourite for the race. I have already put him up for this ante-post. Update: As mentioned above Minella Rocco is Derek's ride although Jamie Codd has been booked so there is still a top jockey booked, but I am surprised Derek has changed his mind. Stella Notion - Was a useful handicapper for Henry De Bromhead in Ireland and managed to win at Kelso off 137 in May 2018 for Tom George. He then went to Tom Frost's where he won two points at Larkhil before being beaten 38L by Monsieur Gibraltar at Southwell. According to the Racing Post he is now on his 3rd trainer since then having run once for Emma Clark when he was pulled up behind Hazel Hill at Sheriff Hutton in January. Now Philip Kirby trains him and I have been told that James King takes the ride which is a good jockey booking. Wouldn't be an obvious one to back, but the trainer might bring about some improvement. Top Wood - I can see Top Wood being popular e/w given his superb record in the race. He was just denied by Pacha Du Polder and Harriett Tucker two years ago and then he was 3rd to Hazel Hill last year. After that he then went and won at Aintree when he wanted it more than Burning Ambition in 2nd. He ran really well on his seasonal return when 2nd in a handicap at Ascot off 139 and he was over 15L in front of Minella Rocco. Wasn't quite as good at Haydock next time, but the ground was very testing that day. I couldn't really put anyone off wanting to back him e/w, but he is now 13 and surely he has had his best chance of actually winning the race. Kalabaloo - The only mare in the race and she was an impressive winner of the mares race on hunter chase night. Was then sent off a short price favourite for the John Corbet Cup at Stratford and was a well beaten 4th behind Law Of Gold. Has won a couple of Ladies Opens at Alnwick this season but the fact she was 1/2 and 2/5 tells you all about the quality of the opposition. My feeling is she is unlikely to be good enough, but I do think she is better than she showed at Stratford and can run a nice race. Summary - With no more rain forecast it looks like the ground is only going to get drier come race time and I would say we will be looking at good to soft all round. Ideally Staker Wallace would want it softer, but it should be OK still and even though Derek has decided not to ride, Jamie Codd has an incredible strike rate at the Festival so he is a great jockey to have still. I have to say though he is the right sort of price so I am not sure there is much value left in the price. I have no idea who will be favourite now. I would imagine Minella Rocco will be popular among the non hunter chase/pointing followers and I see Paul Kealy has tipped him up in The Weekender. Even though Derek is on him I would still be a bit surprised if he did go and win, but as I mention above I am not so strongly against him as I was. Billaway has been spoken highly by his trainer so he could be popular in the market although given how much speed he showed last time I just wonder if he wants a stamina test and I think Staker Wallace can reverse the form. Hazel Hill is touching 6/1 now and I wonder if he might drift a bit more. I might add a small cover bet on Friday if he does drift a bit more because his trainer remains confident and given he has swerved the race with Wishing And Hoping he clearly thinks he still has a massive chance despite the loss last time. That is clearly a concern, but as mentioned above there is reason to believe that he could easily bounce back here. Caid Du Berlais is the other horse I put up and he is back out to 14/1 in a couple of places now. I am topping up to make it a full point on him now especially with the extra place available. The ground should have dried up for him and I fully expect him to run more like his 2018 showing than his 2019 one. With his class I find it pretty hard to see him out of the first 5 at the very least and hopefully he can finish strongly up the hill. The main bet I am going to have though is Shantou Flyer to give David Maxwell his first win in the race. I think he has chosen the right horse over Bob And Co and he ran a really good race to finish 2nd in the race last year. He won a point which has worked out very well on his seasonal reappearance and then bolted up at Fakenham after which Maxwell said he was better than last season. If he is right then that clearly makes him a leading candidate and I think he is a big price at 9/1. Top Wood will have his fans, but I think at 13 his best chance of actually winning has gone. I know a few shrewd pointing followers are keen on Law Of Gold at a big price and I can see why up to a point as he's a progressive horse in a field where not many seem to have much of a chance. At 7 though I wonder if it is a year to early and I think he has at least 20lbs to find on form for all that he is progressive. Something usually at least places at a price, but to be honest I can't really pick one which might do so I am going to focus on the top end of the market and the proven class of Caid Du Berlais and Shantou Flyer plus the possible new star Staker Wallace. Caid Du Berlais 1pt e/w (or 0.25pts e/w if already on) @ 12/1 with Bet365 @12/1 (14s available to 3 places with Betfair) Shantou Flyer 1.5pts e/w @ 9/1 with Bet365 Already advised Caid Du Berlais 0.75pts e/w @ 14/1 Staker Wallace 0.75pts e/w @ 14/1
  34. 9 points
    Darran

    Non League Predictions > March 14th

    Must admit I feel under a bit of pressure as I can imagine these tips are going to be more popular than before given the circumstances. I imagine we might see some late call offs, but as it stands most of the 3 National League games and the Northern Premier League games are set to go ahead. I have 6 bets and hopefully I can help make people some money. Maidenhead v Stockport The home side are trying to get away from the relegation zone, whilst the away side are trying to get into the play-offs and it is the away side I like here. They are unbeaten in 5 games and their away form is very strong as they have lost just twice in their last 10 away fixtures and Maidenhead have lost 6 of their last 9 home games. They have also lost 4 on the bounce including when I opposed them last weekend against Boreham Wood. Stockport ought to be too strong for them and they ought to be clear favourites. Darlington v Farsely Celtic Darlington won their first game in 6 last Saturday when beating Telford, but they had drawn their previous 3 which were all solid performances. They have been strong at home pretty much all season as well having lost just 4 times and I think they are a better team than Farsely. Celtic had to go to Evesham to play my own side on Monday and blew a 1 goal lead and Gloucester aren't very good. Farsley's away form isn't great either having lost 4 of their last 5 on their travels. Overall it is just two wins in 10 and one of those was against a really bad Blyth side. The home side look a good price. Spennymoor v Hereford Got to take a chance on Hereford again at a big price given how much they are improving. I put them up last week to beat Farsely and they were impressive coming on the back of beating York 4-1. I also put them up on Tuesday when drawing 0-0 at Kettering, but there isn't too much wrong with that given the state of the home sides pitch. Spennymoor are a good side and deserve to be favourites, but they put in a bit of a dud performance last week against Altrincham and I think an improving Hereford are under-rated. Braintree v St Albans A couple of weeks ago Braintree caused a bit of a shock when beating Bath 2-0, but that is one of only 2 wins in their last 10 games and although St Albans are a point below their hosts that is mainly down to the fact Braintree had a good start to the season and St Albans a poor one and as things stand for me St Albans are the better side. They have lost their last 2 games 2-1 but those came against two of the most in form teams in the divison, Dartford and Chippenham. Prior to that they managed to beat 2nd place Havant which shows what sort of level they can reach and I think they can pick up 3 more points here. Chippenham v Wealdstone Given I have put up Chippenham a few times of late to great effect I am going to chance them to beat the league leaders here. For those who haven't seen my previous tips of Chippenham they have improved massively under former Gloucester manger Mike Cook which is no surprise to me given what he did at Gloucester last team to keep them up. They have only lost twice in their last 10 and are clearly a much improved side. There are signs Wealdstone are showing some nerves as they lost to Chelmsford, drew to Dartford and had to come from a goal down to beat Dulwich last week. This will be a tough test for them and I am happy to take a chance on the home side winning their 6th game in their last 7. Radcliffe Borough v Whitby Town You might think I have gone made putting up a team who haven't won since Boxing Day, have picked up just two points in that time and scored 7 goals. However I think there is good reason to back them here. They recently got Lee Flower in as manager and he has improved the side. They put in a really good performance last Saturday to get a 2-2 draw against a very good Nantwich team. Whitby are pretty good themselves to be fair, but they haven't won in 4 and they had a kind fixture list. They drew 3 and lost 1. The loss was to Stafford who hadn't won in 7 at the time. Granthem have only got 5 points in their last 10 games and they drew with them and one of their other draws was against Mickleover who have only 2 points in their last 5 games. This gives me hope that an improved Radcliffe can get a first win since Boxing Day. Stockport 1pt @ 8/5 with Bet365, BetVictor, Betway and William Hill Darlington 2pts @ 5/4 with Bet365, Betfred, BetVictor and William Hill Hereford 1pt @ 9/2 with Bet365 St Albans 1pt @ 19/10 with Bet365 Chippenham 1pt @ 11/5 with Bet365 Radcliffe 1pt @ 13/5 with BetVictor
  35. 9 points
    I have taken the last couple of midweek's off as nothing caught my eye enough to want to have a bet, but this week there are 3 bets that I like on Tuesday and Wednesday evening all at step 3. Kings Langley v Biggleswade (BetVictor Southern Premier Central) Stratford were one of my winners on Saturday at a huge price as they beat Biggleswade 1-0 with a late goal. We may have got slightly fortunate as Stratford set themselves up to get a point, but luckily for us the nicked all 3. It does mean though that it is one win in 6 for them with that coming against a poor St Ives side. Kings Langley are bang in form at the moment having lost just one in their last 9 and that was against a very good Royston side. They only drew 1-1 on Saturday against Barwell, but their keeper let the ball slip out of his hands from a routine cross and they otherwise dominated the game. As long as they convert their chances on Tuesday night they will take the 3 points and look a good price to do so. Stalybridge Celtic v Gainsborough Trinity (BetVictor Northern Premier) Trinity have been a team I have put up a few times in recent weeks as they continue to improve under their new manager and they are now unbeaten in 9 and have failed to win just one of their last 7 matches. Yes the fixture list has been fairly kind, but they proved on Saturday how much they have improved by beating a Basford side who had won 5 on the bounce and are going for promotion. The home side have not won in 6 now although did get a very good point against likely champions South Shields. Everyone wants to try and beat South Shields though and you couldn't be certain that they will reproduce that performance and with Trinity flying I will take them to bag the 3 points. Kingstonian v Horsham (BetVictor Isthmian Premier) Horsham looked potential title contenders at 1 stage, but if they continue in their current form then they won't even keep the play-off spot they are currently in. They have won just 3 of their last 7 games and 2 of those came against clubs in the bottom 6. They lost 2-1 to Cray on Saturday which on the face of it doesn't look bad as Cray are 3rd, but Cray had to play for 77 minutes with just 10 men and yet still had a comfortable enough afternoon. The home side have lost just one of their last 10 although they have drawn half of those games and that does concern me slightly, but they are clearly in better form than Horsham and really ought to be shorter than 38/25 to pick up the 3 points. Kings Langley 2pts @ 6/5 with Marathon Gainsborough Trinity 1pt @ 38/25 with Marathon Kingstonian 1pt @ 38/25 with Marathon
  36. 9 points
    CzechPunter

    Australian Open 2020

    This is probably the trickiest Grand Slam we've had to deal with so far in terms of conditions, because this is very different from having some rainy weeks. It's also hard to know how good the air quality is going to be in advance, because there are a lot of factors affecting that. I've also read that the umpires will be able to stop play pretty much indefinitely once the air quality becomes unbearable, although how exactly that is going to work is anyone's guess, because I'm sure that they are going to be pushed to the limit in that regard so as not to delay the tournament unnecessarily (well, unnecessarily for the organizers, that is). The world's elite and a few other lucky players are very likely to be shielded from most of the burden thanks to the three roofs the Australian Open comes with and I'm actually not all that surprised that Federer isn't against playing anymore, since he was likely notified that he's going to get all the right scheduling again, as is very likely to happen with Nadal, Djokovic, Barty, etc. as well. So what are we to make out of all this? Well, I've ran through the quarters a couple of times and, right now, pretty much the only bet that I'm considering is Barty to win her quarter, because she's been seriously impressive this week and as I'm sure that the organizers are going to do everything in order to increase her chances. So yeah, let's actually stick that out there - Ashleigh Barty to win the 1st quarter at 3.00 with Bet365 - the other strong players in her quarter are Kvitova (who might have serious physical issues) and Keys, while the rest shouldn't be too difficult honestly. As for the matches, I think that one has to be somewhat cautious and I honestly reckon that the best strategy to make a profit is to stay up all night, watch as many matches and possible, see how the players are coping with the conditions and bet accordingly. I stand by the Pegula bet that I've posted above, as she really is better than Townsend and as, let's face it, Townsend is the likelier of the two to seriously struggle if heat or bad air shows up. In general, you also have to be very wary of players that haven't played in any events so far or that haven't really performed in them, which is why I also very much like Cori Gauff (-2.5) to beat Venus Williams at 1.93 with Pinnacle. If I remember correctly, Venus withdrew from one of the early events due to some health issues and she has some chronic problems as well, so, unless nerves get to her, Gauff should prevail. I also like Shuai Zhang (-2.5) to beat Sloane Stephens at 1.88 with Pinnacle, because the two are going in different directions at the moment and because Sloane just isn't worth backing unless she's focused and on some sort of a run. She has the right skills for beating everyone, but she's just terrible when off and Zhang has the weapons to put her off and a 5-2 season record to boot. I really am focused too much on women and favorites and this might cost me, but what can I do when I don't see anything else? I'll also be backing three straight set victories on that front, Tamara Zidansek (-1.5 sets) to beat Han Na-Lae at 2.02 with Pinnacle, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to beat Nina Stojanovic 2-0 at 1.80 with Bet365 and Magda Linette (-1.5 sets) to beat Arantxa Rus at 1.85 with Pinnacle. Those are some serious mismatches at the moment as far I see things, especially Zidansek and Pavs. Finally, in terms of qualifiers, I can't ignore Lauren Davis (-3.5) to beat Annie Leylah Fernandez at 1.71 with local and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to beat Norbert Gombos at 1.62 with local. That's what I have so far and I'm looking forward to everyone else's suggestions!
  37. 9 points
    BillyHills

    Overall Stats for 2019

    Overall Stats for 2019 147 Players took part throughout the year placing nearly 18,000 selections The table show those with at least 85 bets to their name. Roll of Honour Heres to 2020, we all start with a clean slate!!
  38. 9 points
    Darran

    Non-League Predictions > Boxing Day

    Saturday was not great with only Weston winning and Havant really should have covered the handicap with ease instead of only drawing which was especially frustrating. Anyway onto Boxing Day and I have 7 bets including 5 in the National League. Dagenham & Redbridge v Ebbsfleet Dagenham did manage to get pass Sutton in the FA Trophy, but they have lost 8 of their last 9 league games and as I mentioned when tipping Sutton up the 6-1 beating of Aldershot sticks out like a massive sore thumb. I just can't have Ebbsfleet as big as 13/5 for this given they have only lost one league game in their last 8. Granted they have drawn 4 of them, but they have been playing well and are unfortunate not to have picked up more wins. Chesterfield v Solihull Moors Solihull's away form nearly put me off this as it isn't as strong as it should be, but I think the Rotherham loss was to blame for the poor performance at Wrexham in their last away match and then prior to that they had picked up 7 points in their last 3 games on the road. Chesterfield beat Torquay on Saturday, but the home side pretty much gifted them the victory given they conceded in the first minute and then had a man sent off. That was their first win in 8 games and given they are playing the team I think are probably the best in the division it ought to be an away win. Dover v Bromley Bromley blew it big time on Saturday by gifting Eastleigh 3 goals and 3 wins in their last 9 league games is a bit of a concern, but it sums up the league that they are still bang in contention. I have to back them here though given Dover's poor home form which I have often spoken about on here and I would have them as favourites. Harrogate v Hartlepool Got to try again with Hartlepool after the FA Trophy game which should have been a winner. They are the better team for me and they should be wanting to prove a point after blowing a 2 goal lead. Yeovil v Torquay 6 league losses on the bounce for the away side and I just don't see how they can suddenly beat Yeovil who have lost just once in 9. It was an impressive effort to come from 2 down to draw 2-2 at Fylde on Saturday and given Torquay are conceding goals for fun at the moment I can see Yeovil's impressive strike force causing them all sorts of problems. They should be odds on for me. Guiseley v Farsley Celtic The last time I opposed the home side was when they beat Gateshead which is their only victory in 9 league games! Hopefully we can get paid out this time as I think Farsely are the better team. Their away form is the 3rd best in the division only behind the top two in the table and I was impressed with their win against a Leamington side who have been showing a fair bit of improvement. They look value at 19/10. Hendon v Harrow Borough Hendon have proved they can do well against the teams around them in recent weeks and they look a good bet to beat a Harrow side who are badly out of form. They lost 4-0 to Weston on Saturday and have only picked up one point in their last 7 games. Hendon are much better at home than away as well having lost just one of their last 5 on the own patch. Ebbsfleet 1pt @ 13/5 with Bet365 Solihull Moors 1pt @ 34/25 with Marathon Bromley 1pt @ 161/100 with Marathon Hartlepool 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365 Yeovil 3pts @ 107/100 with Marathon Farsley Celtic 1pt @ 19/10 with Bet365 Hendon 2pts @ 129/100 with Marathon I hope everyone has a great Christmas with whatever you have planned and that we can have a profitable Boxing Day.
  39. 9 points
    The FA Trophy steps up another gear this weekend with the National League sides joining the competition, although as usual I suspect some won't want to be staying in the competition for long as they will have other matters on their mind. I am going with 6 bets in the Trophy. In the league's I have 2 singles and a double. Atherton Colleries V Barrow Barrow are surprise leaders in the National League at the moment and it isn't hard to think that with the focus being firmly on promotion that they will be putting out a weakened side here. The National League sides have to play 4 games in 9 days over Christmas and with such a busy and crucial period coming up it is easy to imagine that Ian Evatt will rest a few key players for a tie like this. That doesn't mean they won't still win, but I am not sure there is a too much depth in the side and that gives the home team a sporting chance of winning. They managed to upset Boston in the previous round and are unbeaten in their last 3 league games so they are coming into this in decent nick. I'd still make Barrow favourites, but at 6/1 if they face a weakened Barrow side then it is worth an investment. Dorking v Bromley Like Barrow I can see Bromley resting players ahead of the busy Christmas period. They got the final a couple of years ago when losing to Brackley, but they now want to get into the Football League and there is every chance this is going to be their best chance of actually winning the title given how weak and open the league looks. Dorking are having a good season in the National League South and are currently unbeaten in 5. They look over priced and even if Bromley were at full strength I wouldn't rule out them causing an upset anyway. Harrogate v Hartlepool I know Harrogate's home league form is strong, they are unbeaten in 9 and have won 7 of them, and Hartlepool had to play extra time against Exeter on Tuesday, but I still think Hartlepool are over priced at 31/10 with BetVictor. They should have held on for the win at Woking last week, but maybe Tuesday's night game crept into the players minds. They showed how good they are when beating Exeter and I think they are a better side than Harrogate. Given Dave Challinor won the Trophy with Fylde last season I think there is a strong chance he will want to try and win it again with his new club. Id have preferred if they hadn't gone to extra time on Tuesday, but I still think they are too big a price. If they are this sort of price on Boxing Day for the league version of this fixture then I will be backing them again. Maidenhead v Hemel Hempstead Town Alan Devonshire has already raised how annoyed he is with the fact the National League are making them play 4 games in 9 days and survival in the National League is probably more important than winning the FA Trophy. Hemel owe us one after a couple of surprise defeats when I put them up in recent weeks and they have lost 3 league games on the bounce. Even so I don't think there is a great deal between these two sides if Hemel play at their best as they have a good side and thus at 18/5 they are a value play here. Solihull Moors v Darlington Again like Barrow and Bromley I can see Tim Flowers resting some of the 1st team here. One line of theory is that he will want the 1st team to bounce back after losing to Wrexham last Saturday, but I think it would be more sensible to give them a longer break ahead of the busy period to come especially after the mentally tough to take loss to Rotherham in the FA Cup. Darlington proved in their FA Cup run they have a strong team on their day and they are more than capable of causing an upset especially if we see a weaker than usual Solihull side. Sutton v Dagenham & Redbridge Dagenham are in terrible form going into this tie with the 6-1 win over Aldershot sticking out like a sore thumb as they have lost their other 7 of their last 8 games. Peter Taylor must be feeling the pressure and they must surely be thinking about a change of manager if results don't improve soon. They have a tough game here though against an improving Sutton whose only defeat in their last 6 was against Bromley and they played well in that defeat. They look the best bet of the weekend to me. Leiston v Peterborough Sports The price available on Leiston is way too big for this game. As I mentioned last week they are a side who are now much better than their league position suggests. They duly bolted up against Redditch and although this is game is tougher they just shouldn't be 5/1 shots to win this. I would still make Sports favourites and they are having a good first season at this level, but the market hasn't caught up with Leiston's improved side and I am hopeful that even if we don't collect here we will get more opportunites to back them in the upcoming fixtures. Weston-Super-Mare v Wimborne Town Weston have been a bit disappointing this season and they have dropped silly points. They should really be in promotion contention and not near the relegation zone. I like the signing of Vincent Harper in the week as Gloucester had him on loan earlier in the season and I was very impressed with him. He will improve the side for sure and on paper they have a much stronger side than Wimborne. Hopefully they can make it show on the pitch. St Ives v Redditch and Swindon Supermarine v Dorchester Speaking of Redditch they have to be opposed again. They had quite a few academy players playing against Leiston and they then had another heavy defeat to Evesham in the League Cup. This is the only fixture St Ives will be odds on for all season because they aren't great either and they have only picked up 2 points in their last 9 games. This though is a must win for them and they really ought to be capable of doing so. Dorchester drew 4-4 against Gosport on Tuesday in a crazy game that Gosport were a man down for a lot of. This game is much harder for them as Swindon Supermarine are flying this season and look possible title contenders. This should be a home win and it looks a double well worth having. Atherton Colleries 1pt @ 6/1 with BetVictor Dorking 1pt @ 12/5 with BetVictor Hartlepool 1pt @ 13/10 BetVictor Hemel Hempstead Town 1pt @ 18/5 with BetVictor Darlington 1pt @ 4/1 with BetVictor Sutton 2pts @ 117/100 with Marathon Weston-Super Mare 1pt @ 34/25 with Marathon Leiston 1pt @ 5/1 with BetVictor St Ives/Swindon Supermarine 2pts double @ 1.94/1 with Marathon
  40. 9 points
    Darran

    FA Cup Predictions > Nov 8th - 12th

    I never understand why tipsters say they won't bet on the FA Cup. I love betting on the FA Cup as it offers the chance to land some lumpy prices as I have done over the years. The 1st Round is my favourite weekend of the season and hopefully I can make it a profitable one. I have 7 singles and a 5 team acca across the weekend. Dulwich Hamlet v Carlisle Gloucester City might be my main team, but I have been going to Dulwich games for around 10 years now. At that point they were lucky to get 300 people through the turnstiles and now you can sometimes add a 0 on to that figure. This season alone they are averaging nearly 2000 for their league games and not surprisingly Friday night's match is a sell out. Fortunately I have been able to get hold of a ticket so will be there hopefully to witness a upset and Dulwich's first ever visit to the 2nd round. I think there is a fair chance that I might. On the face of it backing a team who haven't won a league game since August 24th two divisions below their opponents might not be wise, but Dulwich are nowhere near as bad as that stat suggests. I put them up in the last round when they beat Havant who are the best team in their division so that was no mean feat. Carlisle come into this having only won 2 away games in the league all season and they were both against teams below them in the table. Their win against Macclesfield last week was their first in 7 and given the troubles with them at the moment that is hardly proof they are in good form again. They will not fancy this one bit. Champion Hill is very compact so the crowd will be very close to the action add into the fact that the game is on the BBC so the Carlisle players will know the pressure is on them. Gavin Rose has always set Dulwich up to play football the right way and if they can be clinical in front of goal I am certain they will get the chances to win the game. I think 16/5 (Bet365 and Betfair) is just on the right side of value and hopefully they can get the weekend off to a profitable start. Carshalton v Boston An all Non-League tie here with BetVictor Isthmian Premier Carshalton hosting Natonal League North side Boston. I like the chances of there being an upset here as Carshalton have been hard to beat all season. They have lost just 3 times in the league and only one of those have come in their last 10 although they have drawn their last 5. They have already caused an upset in the previous round having beaten Dagenham & Redbridge so hosting a team from the level below should hold no fears for them. Boston have struggled on their travels in the league and they have only beaten Kettering and AFC Telford away from home. That Telford game was last week, but they clearly have issues away from home given they are unbeaten at home. I think at over 2/1 the home side are value to cause an upset. Stourbridge v Eastleigh I opposed Eastleigh last week given the amount of injuries they had and the fact Harrogate were in decent form, but Harrogate had a bit of a stinker and gifted them 3 of their 4 goals. Even though Stourbridge are two levels below it actually wouldn't surprise me if they give them a harder game than they had last week. Also Eastleigh have looked pretty poor on the road at times this season. Stourbridge have only played 11 league games so far given their cup run and they have lost just twice. Chances are they will be fighting it out for promotion again this season and their current position of 11th is a bit misleading. I think this is one game which will be much closer than the odds and leagues positions suggest. Walsall v Darlington The biggest price selection is Darlington and obviously backing a National League North side to win at a League 2 side should be a big price, but given Walsall's form at the moment Darlington might just be capable of causing an upset. They have lost 6 games on the bounce now and will be coming into this low on confidence. It was a bit disappointing Darlington couldn't beat a 10 man Hereford last week, but it did continue the unbeaten run and they are better than their league position suggests. A risky bet for sure, but I do think they are overpriced to win the game. Gateshead v Oldham Gateshead let me down last Saturday when under performing against Guiseley last week. They hadn't conceded at home for over nine hours and then duly defended badly and let in 3 in one game. They bounced straight back on Tuesday though beating Curzon 3-0. Granted Oldham are going to be at a very different level from Curzon, but they are coming into this game in shocking form and they clearly are one of the worst teams in League 2. They have only won once away all season and in their last 10 games they have only beaten Walsall and Morecombe which doesn't say an awful lot. As long as Gateshead don't defend like they did last week, and the evidence suggests that was a one off, then they have a real chance of causing an upset here in my view. Macclesfield v Kingstonian This game might not even go ahead because of the players strike and it is no surprise that some bookies have stopped betting on the game and that the price of the away side has come in from around 8/1. Kingstonian were one of my ante-post bets in their league this season and they have been frustrating as they haven't won as many matches as they ought to have done, but on their day they are a good side and given all that is going on at Macclesfield it looks a sporting play. Even if the players do get paid they aren't going to be in a good place and if they don't then there must be a chance that Macclesfield play the youth team just to get the game on. If that happens then that Kingstonian price will come in plenty more. Wrexham v Rochdale Rochdale are in the bottom half of League 1 and have lost their last 3 games, but I think they can beat Wrexham here. 2 of those defeats were against top of the table Ipswich and 4th place Oxford. I opposed Wrexham last week, but they beat Bromley thanks to a cracking goal and I do think Wrexham will improve under Dean Keates, but they still have a little way to go and I think they will struggle to beat a League 1 side at the moment. I am surprised that Rochdale are on the drift and they look a good price at odds against. FA Cup Acca I like 5 teams at odds on to win over the weekend. Solihull travel to Oxford City and they ought to have too much for them. Chorley have found life a struggle in the National League and they have started leaking goals again after keeping a few clean sheets. They travel to Mansfield and it would be a surprise if they could get anything out of it. Rotherham's away form is much better than their home form and they can prove to be too strong at Maidenhead. On Sunday Northampton should be more than capable of beating Chippenham and in one of the live games I can see Oxford United easily beating Hayes & Yeading. As an aside it wasn't that long ago I went to watch that game as a league match and now their are 4 levels between them! Dulwich Hamlet 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365 and Betfair Carshalton 1pt @ 21/10 with Marathon Stourbridge 1pt @ 100/30 with Betfair Darlington 1pt @ 17/2 with Bet365 Gateshead 1pt @ 100/30 with Bet365 Kingstonian 1pt @ 21/4 with Bet365 Rochdale 2pts @ 13/10 with Betway Solihull/Mansfield/Northampton/Oxford United/Rotherham 1pt acca @ 6.3/1 with Marathon
  41. 9 points
    Darran

    Non-League Predictions > October 22nd

    A small profit on Saturday thanks to Dulwich, Harrogate and Hartlepool. Was nearly so much better with 3 of the other bets drawing but certainly happy to keep things ticking over. Onto tonight and I have 4 bets. Kidderminster v Farsley Celtic The home side usually get backed from the Asian punters and this has happened yet again with this match tonight. Earlier this morning Farsley themselves had been backed into 6/5 and then the market has made a massive shift towards Kiddie and they are as short as evens now. The reason the Asian market punters love Kiddie is I think because they always seem to produce good stats on the shots both for and against side of things. This of course though doesn't actually mean a great deal in my view when it comes to results on the pitch especially at this level. They have only managed 4 wins in the league this season and have been dumped out of the FA Cup by lower league opposition. I watch a lot of Step 2 football in the flesh and I can be pretty certain that the stats that are produced actually have little baring on what the quality of the shots during the game actually are. Kiddie fans have said how poor they have been and their league position certainly backs that up. The other key thing for me here is the fact they haven't played a game of football since September 28th. As Stafford knocked them out of the FA Cup they didn't have a game for 2 of those Saturday's and then they missed the other because of international call-ups. I used to think that time off like that was helpful at this stage of the season, but actually I am not sure it is anymore. The bets I have had on the back of these sort of breaks have usually lost because in actual fact the team are ring rusty having not kicked a ball in anger for so long. They did beat Altrincham in their last home league game on September 14th, but then Altrincham are yet to win away from home this season and are below Kiddie in the table. They have finally been taken over so there should be more positivity around the club and they have made one new signing so far. I suspect more will follow, but it will take time to overhaul a disappointing squad. Celtic have done superbly well so far after gaining promotion last season and have won 5 games on the bounce. Now I do have to add here that they have had a pretty kind fixture list. They have beaten Bradford Park Avenue, Kettering, Leamington, Curzon and then on Saturday Alfreton. That isn't a great bunch apart from Alfreton, but even they aren't in the best of form right now. However it does show they are scoring goals for fun as they have scored 15 goals in that time and they have scored in their last 9 league games. Obviously they won't be as fresh as the home side as they played on Saturday, but they will be match fit which could be the bigger factor. At 23/10 Celtic have to be the play as yet again Kiddie are way too short in the betting. AFC Rushden & Diamonds v Banbury The home side cost us on Saturday, but I am going to oppose them again here. Banbury have had a superb season so far and have only lost 1 of their last 9 games. They were involved in a thriller on Saturday against Biggleswade which they won 3-2 in injury time and I think they can back that up with a win here. St Ives Town v Royston Town I am a bit concerned about how the away side will react to blowing a good chance of getting to the First Round of the FA Cup on Saturday, but this does look a good game for them to try and bounce back in and they look way over priced. St Ives have got a lot of injured players and it looks doubtful about them getting any back for tonight. Last Tuesday they drew 4-4 with bottom side Leiston in a game described as one neither team deserved to win. They then lost 1-0 to an Alvechurch side who hadn't won a league game since August and they performed poorly again. Granted Royston haven't won in 4 league games but the two defeats were against Tamworth and Hednesford so they weren't expected to win either of them. I just can't have them as 3/1 shots to win this at all and that is a huge price. Stratford Town v Tamworth The home side look in a right mess at the moment and they have already used over 30 players this season. They sacked their manager a couple of weeks ago and they were forced to cut the budget as well as another 8 players left the team. It has been 10 days since they played a competitive game which they lost 3-0 Lowestoft which is their only win in 7 games and they have lost the other 6. Tamworth were my main bets for the title and they are nicely placed in 3rd after 11 games. They did lose to Darlington in the FA Cup at the weekend, but that was obviously much tougher than this and they will be hoping to get back to winning ways tonight. I think they ought to be odds on to win this so Betway's 7/5 looks too big. Farsely Celtic 2pts @ 23/10 with Bet365 Banbury 1pt @ 44/25 with Marathon Royston 2pts @ 3/1 with William Hill, BetVictor and Betway Tamworth 2.5pts @ 7/5 with Betway
  42. 9 points
    Darran

    Non-League Predictions > September 7th

    A small loss on Tuesday night which would have seen a decent profit if Braintree had held on to their 2-1 lead against 10 men. The FA Cup means we only have the 3 National League's to focus on this weekend and I have 4 bets. Aldershot v Barrow This match nearly didn't make the cut, but in the end I do think Aldershot are worthy of a bet on Saturday. They haven't won at home yet, but only just lost to Fylde and Bromley and then have picked up points against Halifax and Sutton. Given the way Halifax are playing that was an especially good point. This looks a reasonable opportunity to pick up 3 points at home for the first time this season as Barrow are struggling this term especially on the road where they have only picked up a point. To be fair they have had some tough away games having gone to Wrexham, Stockport and Woking and they have only lost by 1 goal on each occasion. That nearly put me off Aldershot, but I don't think there is a great deal between these two sides and Aldershot had the Tuesday off which will have helped as well. I would have them around 11/8 so the fact they have drifted to 179/100 with Marathon makes them a bet for me. Boreham Wood v Dover I am really keen on Dover here and they look the best bet of the weekend for me. I mentioned on Bank Holiday Monday that Boreham Wood haven't won at home since January and they duly lost to Ebbsfleet albeit they did have 10 men for most of the game. They then went to Chorley and won 3-1 in the live game, but Chorley pretty much gifted them the game so I don't think it said much about them and they then went and lost at Eastleigh on Tuesday night. Dover are having a good season and they have won all 4 away games so far. They drew at home to Ebbsfleet on Tuesday but they should have won and they look potential play-off contenders this season. To me this game has been priced up if the teams are of similar ability, but I would make Dover clear favourites for this and the 17/10 with Bet365 is well worth taking in my view. Chorley v Stockport As I mentioned above and on Tuesday night, Chorley look a long way short of this level at the moment and it is hard to see them getting anything out of this game. These two sides battled it out for the National League North title last year and Chorley did beat Stockport late on although they did lose the title to them in the end. This season though the two teams look miles apart. Stockport weren't great in their opening day defeat to Maidenhead, but they have done nothing but improve since and have lost just once since. They have had two good wins against Wrexham and AFC Fylde in their last two matches and they really should be beating Chorley on everything both teams have done this season. Stockport have scored in every game bar the Maidenhead one and given how leaky Chorley's defence is they should surely by adding to their goal tally here. I would make them odds on so the 6/5 with William Hill and Betway is well worth taking. Gloucester City v Darlington I have written on here this season about my own teams superb away from in recent seasons especially under their current manager although since they beat Kidderminster they have lost their next 3 away games. I do think they are extenuating circumstances though as all those have been on a Tuesday or Bank Holiday Monday when the players have come on the back of a tough home game. Blowing a 2 goal lead at AFC Telford wasn't great on Tuesday night, but there is cause for thinking they are a big price on Saturday. Firstly their home performances have been strong this season despite the fact they have only won one. They played well with 10 and then 9 men against Hereford, drew with Altrincham, beat Boston 3-0 and then pushed York close last week when leading 2-1 at one stage. On paper this is their easiest game so far at home and Darlington come to Evesham struggling for fit and available players. They have only managed to pick up 1 point away from home so far this season and beating bottom of the table Blyth 2-1 on Wednesday night didn't say a lot. I would make Gloucester favourites for this and I really can't understand why they have drifted out to 2/1 with Bet365. Alderhshot 1pt @ 179/100 with Marathon Dover 3pts @ 17/10 with Bet365 Stockport 2.5pts @ 6/5 with William Hill and Betway Gloucester City 2pts @ 2/1 with Bet365
  43. 9 points
    Been a disappointing couple of sessions on the back of a couple of good ones which is annoying as well as the fact the last two Nap's have both been beaten after going 3/3 on that front. It's going to be a busy Bank Holiday weekend with games on Saturday and Monday but hopefully it will be a profitable. I have 8 bets on Saturday. Previews to follow Chorley v Hartlepool Chorley got off to a solid start back at this level, but things have really gone wrong in their last two games conceding 10 goals. It seems that the high of promotion has warn off and the reality has set in. It seems they played well enough against Maidenhead, but to do that and still concede 4 goals is not good. Hartlepool being one of the teams I put up ante-post have done OK so far although their only win came at Maidenhead. They played their part in their 3-2 defeat against Bromley last time and I certainly think they are improving after their first two defeats. If Chorley continue in the same vein they have then they are going to get chances to score and although Hartlepool have been a bit too leaky at the back I am not sure Chorley are going to be up too matching them going forward. I would make Hartlepool slight favourites for this so 19/10 is a nice price. Eastleigh v Dagenham & Redbridge Dagenham were a team I struggled to get right last season and after they beat Harrogate last week I just hope it isn't going to be the same this time around. I wasn't exactly complimentary about them last week and it may surprise to see that I am tipping them up this week, but that was a good performance to put 4 past Harrogate especially as they came from 1 down and 2-1 down. Eastleigh are unbeaten in their two home games so far beating Notts County on day 1 and then drawing with Sutton, but I don't think either of those performances showed they were up too much at the moment and they have lost their 3 away games. I thought they would struggle to reach the play-offs like they did last season, but you have to wonder if they might end up being in a relegation scrap based on performances so far. For me Dagenham look stronger at the moment and at 61/25 they look over priced to me. Ebbsfleet v Notts County It's probably surprising as well to see I am so strong on Notts County this weekend, but it is clear that performances have improved having beaten Harrogate and drawing with Wrexham on Sunday. With a 6 day gap between games that should give the management team time to work with the players that would have been tricky with the Saturday-Tuesday-Saturday/Sunday schedule they have been faced with prior to this week. They looked a million miles away in the game against Barnet, but it seems they are making good progress now and they face and Ebbsfleet side who come into this having lost all 5 games so far. To be fair to them they were close at Fylde and Solihull to getting at least a point so they are capable, but their two home performances have been really bad so far and as much as I think Gary Hill will sort things out eventually Notts County should have too much for them here. Harrogate v Stockport Having put Harrogate up in their last three games and for them to let me down no doubt they will go and win this now I am opposing them, but Stockport are just too big a price for me. Harrogate might end up suffering from 2nd season syndrome and losing their last 3 is not good. Stockport looked clueless on the opening day against Maidenhead, but they have gone unbeaten since and certainly looked to have improved since then. Granted they have had a fairly kind fixture list, but they shouldn't fear playing Harrogate at the moment and at bigger than 5/2 they look a value play. Yeovil v Maidenhead I've tried opposing Yeovil a couple of times without success, but then I did do it with Ebbsfleet and Eastleigh so that was perhaps my mistake. They were really bad against Barrow in a dire game last week and that backed up my view that they aren't anything special. Alan Devonshire continues to work miracles at Maidenhead and they have had a cracking start to the season winning 3 and only losing as mentioned above to Hartlepool. For me Maidenhead will be the sort of team that Yeovil will struggle with this season and like Stockport at bigger than 5/2 they look worth a bet. Chelmsford v Welling Chelmsford have scored 4 goals in both their home games so far and it looks like they are going to be very strong at home again this season as they were last term. Away from home it hasn't gone so well although they manage to keep Havant out last week. They have already been well backed, but there is just enough in the price for me to want to get involved. I must admit Welling have done better than I thought they would so far, but Chelmsford at home ought to be too strong for them. Eastbourne v Dulwich Hamlet I might have got slightly lucky Napping Eastbourne the other week because that win over Tonbridge is their only one so far and I think they are worth opposing against a Dulwich side who are looking strong this season. They have only lost one game so far at a strong Hemel side and they are the only team to have taken points against Wealdstone so far having beaten them. They did well to come back from 2 down against a Concord side who have started the season strongly last week and they have a good chance of getting back to winning ways against a Eastbourne side struggling to win at the moment. Wimborne v Taunton Town I opposed Taunton last week and they finally managed to get a win after two very surprising defeats. That 3-2 win over Chesham was a good effort and that should be them up and running now. Wimborne are fair from the strongest side in the division and Taunton should have too much for them. Hartlepool 1pt @ 19/10 with BetVictor Dagenham & Redbridge 1pt @ 61/25 with Marathon Notts County 3pts @ 177/100 with Marathon Stockport 1pt 133/50 with Marathon Maidenhead 1pt @ 139/50 with Marathon Chelmsford 2.5pts @ 51/50 with Marathon Dulwich Hamlet 1pt @ 9/5 with BetVictor Taunton 2pts @ 121/100 with Marathon
  44. 8 points
    LeMale

    Latest Table - May 2020

    Well done @LEE-GRAYS on doing the double, well deserved. Good 2nd @Gary66 kept Lee on his toes till the finish. (Thought the race today mirrored the Nap comp...Lee bursting out the gate into the lead, Gary coming from mid-pack with a late run just not quite getting there!) Nice 3rd @Zidane123 and a great 22-1 find on the last day @Buzz A to nick 4th. Keep finding those winners Guys and Girls. It's been a difficult month, for very different reasons. The Covid fight goes on, but we lost @Sir Puntalot and i would just like to say well done and thank you to everyone behind the scenes for keeping things going in what must have been very difficult times, especially @BillyHills , hopefully with racing back on home soil you're job will become less complicated, thanks again for all that you do.
  45. 8 points
    Thanks to everyone who entered, we had 87 in total to try and claim the 40 spots in the Virtual Grand National. The draw was made by a random name picker, the video will be uploaded for transparency. The final field is as follows Prizes Prizes: 1st : £80 2nd: £45 3rd: £35 4th: £25 5th: £15 Best of luck to all who were successful and for those that missed out better luck in our next competition. BH
  46. 8 points
    Many thanks BillyHills of Southport (used to live there once) for running this competition. Would like to dedicate the win to a close family member who died just recently and who we say farewell to this Tuesday.
  47. 8 points
    Darran

    Non-League Predictions > January 25th

    A small profit last Saturday thanks to Boston and Hendon winning to keep things ticking over. This Saturday I have just the 4 bets with 3 of them over 2/1. Chesterfield v AFC Fylde (National League) Two sides who were favourites for the title and yet find themselves in the relegation zone. Chesterfield do seem to have improved for the change of manager and have won both games since sacking John Sheridan which makes their big price here baffling. Fylde haven't won in 7 league games now and although they have drawn against Yeovil and Barrow in that time. They have lost 3 on the bounce now and although you feel they should get themselves out of the relegation zone they are struggling to do so. Like I say the 5/2 available on a home win is huge and it is the sort of price you would expect if Chesterfield were the away side so I am more than happy to take it. Chester v Darlington (National League North) Chester are hard to beat at home and are clearly a side who look destined for a play-off berth, but I do think Darlington are a big price at 3/1 here as I would make them a point shorter myself. They have won 7 of their last 8 league games and they beat Solihull in the FA Trophy. In that spell they beat Chester in the reverse fixture and also beat York. They are clearly flying right now and this game is much closer than the odds compilers think it is. Potters Bar Town v Bognor Regis Town (BetVictor Isthmian Premier) I like Bognor here who seem to have picked up after a dodgy spell. Having mentioned them for the league at 20/1 in the ante-post update before Christmas they then duly lost 3 of their next 4. However they have won their last two beating good teams in Leatherhead and Folkestone. Potters Bar are a pretty average side and have won 3 and lost 3 of their last 6, but they are beating the lesser teams in the division and whenever they come up against a better side they tend to struggle. Hopefully Bognor will show their superior class here. Leiston v Rushall Olympic (BetVictor Southern Premier Central) Even I didn't think an improving Leiston would be able to beat Tamworth last week and yet they only went and just that. That was a huge effort to beat the best team in the division and it shows how far they have come. I can't believe that on the back of that and the fact they have lost just twice in their last 7 games that they are still being treated as if they are a bad side by the bookies. 1 of those defeats a lot of the squad was ill and the other was an unfortunate injury time loss to Rushden. Rushall are a decent side and have won 5 of their last 7, but I think Leiston are as good as them now and the 16/5 quote is massive in my view. Chesterfield 1pt 5/2 with Bet365 Darlington 1pt @ 3/1 with Betfred and Betway Bognor Regis 1pt @ 7/4 with BetVictor Leiston 1pt @ 16/5 with Marathon
  48. 8 points
    Darran

    Non-League Predictions > December 2nd/3rd

    Great to have a easy win for the big price Nap's Hampton and also the 5/1 shots Stockport on Saturday to make it a profitable afternoon. There aren't too many games this mid-week, but one on Monday has caught my eye. Hitchin v Lowestoft (BetVictor Southern Premier League Central) Lowestoft are having a bit of an injury crisis at the moment and they had another player injured on Saturday in their 4-1 defeat at Tamworth. You add this to their shocking home record and it really ought to be a comfortable win for the home side. Lowestoft have lost all their away games apart from beating Stratford. Not only that but they have conceded 25 times in those 7 defeats and just one of those was by less than 2 goals and that came back on 10th August. Hitchin have only lost 1 of their last 9 although strangely it did come against bottom side Leiston, but otherwise they have been good and were impressive in beating Barwell 4-1 on Saturday. Hitchin should be able to cover the handicap and if they come out of the blocks like they did on Saturday I can also see them winning at HT and FT. Hitchin -1 2pts @ 8/5 with BetVictor Hitchin HT/FT 1pt @ 8/5 with Bet365
  49. 8 points
    Darran

    Non-League Predictions > October 29th

    A late winner from Ebbsfleet helped make it a profitable day on Saturday with Fylde also picking up 3 points. Hopefully I can end October on a good note especially as I have my first max bet of the season and there are 4 bets in total. Bromley v Stockport Bromley manager Neil Smith said after the 5-0 thumping of Halifax on Saturday that no one fancied them to be at the top of the table challenging for the title. He clearly didn't read my ante-post preview then! They showed how much strength in depth they have in the squad on Saturday as they had a couple of players missing but those coming in were more than up to the task and it was a superb performance especially in the 2nd half. They are very close to being even money and I think that is a hell of a bet. Their only defeat at home came against Barrow and their is no disgrace in that and apart from that they have been seeing off teams. I would have them around the 4/7 to beat a Stockport side who have struggled away from home all season. The win at Dover was only their 2nd away win all season and that doesn't say much because of Dover's terrible record at home. Also the winning goal, as good as it was, was a complete fluke and they also lost at York in the FA Cup. Going to Bromley is a going to be a much tougher test especially as it will be their 2nd long journey in 3 days for the part time County. In my view Betway's 19/20 looks a complete gift. Dagenham & Redbridge v Barrow Seems a bit harsh on Barrow to ask them to go to Torquay on Saturday and then to Dagenham on Tuesday, but that is what the fixture list has thrown up. Barrow's run of 7 wins came to an end on Saturday as Torquay beat them 4-2 although they weren't helped by the fact John Rooney was sent off for a handball which may not have been. Clearly they are a good side, but Dagenham are good as well and they have only lost once in their last ten. They have made themselves very hard to beat and won on Saturday beating Wrexham. I think what makes Dagenham value to win the game is the fact its a 2nd long trip for Barrow in such a short space of time and that they are hard to beat. Dover v Eastleigh I have to take on Dover at home. Stockport were a big price against them on Saturday, but I doubted Stockport's ability to win away from home. Dover duly lost at home again though and it is hard to see why they are such short priced favourites to win this. Dover aren't especially in good form either with just 2 wins in their last 9 games and they have only picked up 1 point in their last 4. Eastleigh are solid if unspectacular and they showed that again on Saturday when drawing with Woking 1-1. That was their 5th draw in their last 10, but they have only lost 1 of those. They look in better shape than Dover at the moment, especially as Dover suffered more injuries on Saturday, and I would make them around 7/4-13/8 so for them to be as big as 61/25 that looks too big for me. Sutton United v Halifax To a certain extent I think I got away with the Ebbsfleet bet on Saturday as not only did they have to play with an outfield player in goal for the last 15 minutes, but Sutton were the better side in the 2nd half. I know it sounds daft saying that this looks a good opportunity for them to win again given they are bottom of the last 10 form table with just 1 win in that time, but I think it does. That improved performance on Saturday sets them up for this and Halifax have to travel to South London for the 2nd time in 3 days and for a part-time side that is going to be pretty tough, especially given the drubbing they got on Saturday. They aren't in the best of form either with no win in 3 in the league having drawn with Chorley and lost to Boreham Wood and they also lost to Harrogate in the FA Cup. This game just strikes me as one that could be one of those strange looking Tuesday night results on paper, but in theory there is hope for Sutton in my view and at 2/1 they look a spot of value. Bromley 5pts @ 19/20 with Betway Dagenham & Redbridge 1pt @ 33/20 with Marathon Eastleigh 1pt @ 61/25 with Marathon Sutton 1pt @ 2/1 with Betway
  50. 8 points
    Darran

    Non-League Predictions > September 14th

    Thankfully for the 2nd time this season my own team won at a decent price to stop it from being a blank matchday and covered most of the losses. I am off to Kings Lynn to watch Gloucester on Saturday and based on the stats I should be seeing a lot of goals, but suspect there might be more for the home side than the away side. I won't be having a bet though, but their are 5 games that catch my eye. Previews to follow Eastleigh v Bromley Bromley remain the only undefeated side in the National League and I am surprised that they are over 2/1 to beat an Eastleigh side who look fairly average so far this season. Granted they have only lost once at home, but their home fixture list hasn't been overly tough so far and Bromley are certainly the better side in my view. I would make them favs myself so the 21/10 makes lots of appeal. Darlington v York I opposed Darlington last week and more than happy to do so again this week especially against the best team in the division. Darlington have only won 3 games all season and only 1 of their last 5 games which was against Blyth which as I mentioned last week hardly says much given how bad they are. Like Bromley, York are still unbeaten as well and hopefully both will be picking up 3 points on Saturday. Kettering v Alfreton Alfreton are finally having a good season after some disappointing ones and they have won 5 of their last 6 games with the only defeat a 3-2 loss to table toppers Kings Lynn. Given Kettering have lost 7 of their 10 games it is quite impressive that the only 2 times I have opposed them is in 2 of their 3 games where they haven't won. They have only won once on the opening day of the season and they have backed up my view pre-season that they would be relegation candidates. I haven't managed to make it pay so far, but hopefully it will be 3rd time lucky and Alfreton look the best bet of the weekend given how prolific they are in front of goal and how poor Kettering look at the back Kidderminster v Altrincham Altrincham will be disappointed with their season so far with only 3 wins, but they were really impressive last weekend when beating Leamington 5-0 and that could be the turning point of their season. They have yet to win away from home, but they do have 2 points from their 5 games on the road compared to Kidderminster who have only managed to pick up 1 point from their 5 home games so far. Granted they haven't had the kindest fixture list, but they did throw away a 2 goal lead against Gloucester and they do look as if they are in for a tough season. I thought just over 2/1 looked a spot of value about an away win. Lewes v Potters Bar Town Lewes have really struggled so far this season losing 4 games on the bounce having drawn their opening fixture. They did win 4-1 in their last league game, but that came against bottom club Leatherhead, who they also faced in the FA Cup last weekend. That first game ended in a draw so they had a replay on Wednesday night which ended up going to penalties. They are missing a few players as well as having played 120 minutes on Wednesday and they are going to find that tough going into this game. Potters Bar have had a solid enough season and as much as they look a mid-table side they look capable of taking advantage of Lewes' tiredness. Bromley 2pts @ 21/10 with Bet365 York 2pts @ 61/50 with Marathon Alfreton 2.5pts @ 13/10 with BetVictor Altrincham 1pt @ 51/25 with Marathon Potters Bar Town 1pt @ 71/50 with Marathon
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