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The Brigadier

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The Brigadier last won the day on August 14

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  1. He's declared and is number 35 so guaranteed a run. Top priced 33/1 now though still think that is value as personally wouldn't have him any bigger than 16/1.
  2. The five day declaration are out later for Saturdays big cavalry charge at Newmarket and I think there may well be one that has gone under the radar of the bookmakers (bar William Hill that is!). Keith Dagleish's CHICHESTER was a highly impressive winner of a valuable class 2 handicap at Ayr last Thursday with his improvement possibly coming from the addition of a visor. He was always going well and looked, on that run anyway, a horse way ahead of his mark. The form has actually already been boosted with the runner up that day Platinumcard running well in a listed contest two days later at the Scottish track. He will have to carry a 4lb penalty for that victory IF he is sent to the Cambridgeshire with that penalty pushing him up to currently number 46 in a handicap where 35 can run so with two declaration stages to come you'll be disappointed if he doesn't get into the race. https://www.racingtv.com/results/uk/354998-ayr/16-Sep-2021/1645 I think the bookmakers have massively under estimated his chance as he will likely be going up 10lb or more when his new rating is unveiled tomorrow putting him in here as a horse 6lb ahead of his mark. He is ground dependent with fast ground his optimum going and with (after a shower today) a predominately dry week the ground looks likely to be in his favour come the weekend. I'm not privy to information as to whether he'll go for the race or even be left in today but if I owned the horse I would be very keen to run and exploit his mark with conditions likely to suit. He's a whopping 80/1 with Bet365 and there's plenty of 66/1 around. All being well if he turns up on Saturday I think he will be a quarter of those odds and is worth a small each way play now before today's declarations are known with our fingers firmly crossed that he appears amongst them. Obviously at this early stage we don't have the benefit of enhanced odds but we can always play again when the 48 hour decs are known. CHICHESTER 1/2 point each way @ 80/1 Bet365 1/2 1234
  3. a disappointing day with just a couple of places for a loss of just over 15 points !
  4. A very interesting afternoon’s racing with the ground hopefully riding fast at Ayr for their final day of the Gold Cup meeting and just on the easy side at Newbury. Here’s my thoughts on the 9 ITV contests :- Ayr 1.55 Addeybb unfortunately misses the listed Doonside Cup, run over 10F due to the unseasonably fast ground and in his absence this looks a great opportunity for the Kevin Ryan trained Juan Elcano to get back to winning ways. He won the Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot and has not been disgraced in group company since. Back in calmer waters and with conditions to suit he’ll be hard to beat with Kevin Stott taking over from his regular rider Andrea Atzeni who has a full quota of rides at Newbury. Maydanny ran flat last time and needs to bounce back whilst the biggest threat to the selection is Euchen Glen who has the same official mark as Juan Elcano but has to bounce back from a couple of disappointing efforts. JUAN ELCANO 3 points win @ 11/8 William Hill Newbury 2.15 The Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes is a Group 3 contest run over the minimum trip and has attracted a strong field of eight with only 9lb officially covering the whole field. Khaadem appeared to relish dropping back to this trip when winning at Doncaster 10 days ago and has to be on anyone’s short list. Charlie Hill’s five year old had become a tad disappointing but maybe the trip will give him a chance to fulfil his potential finally. Tis Marvellous produced his best ever effort when winning the Beverley Bullet last time and yet another that looks sure to be involved in the finish. Kings Lynn was a bit flat last time and is overlooked for that reason alone whilst Hurricane Ivor comes here on the back of a late finishing victory in the Portland Handicap last Saturday and cannot be ruled out either. A tough call but slight preference is for Khaadem who has speed to burn. KHAADEM 2 points win @ 10/3 Bet365 Ayr 2.30 A maximum field of 25 go to post for the Silver Cup and I have a strong fancy all be it at the front of the market. Blackrod goes unpenalised for his York apprentice handicap victory at their Ebor meeting so is effectively 5lb well in today (8lb if you take apprentice Billy Garrity’s claim into account as he couldn’t claim in the York race) He got away with the drop to 5F that day finishing strongly at the end and will appreciate the step back up to 6F here. This is only his 8th career run and looks a future pattern performer nestling towards the bottom of this handicap. The draw in 10 is a bit of an unknown but fingers crossed it won’t have an adverse affect on his chance and with plenty of fully exposed sprinters in the race Blackrod is a strong fancy who should be backed each way with enhanced place terms. BLACKROD 3 points each way @ 11/2 1/5th 123456 Boylesports Newbury 2.50 Only five go to post for the Group 3 Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup Stakes with a very warm favourite in the William Haggas trained Al Aasy who’s two from two at this track. He has 7lb and upwards in hand on official figures and despite disappointing last time at Newmarket in July that came on rattling fast ground which doesn’t suit him. He’s been given the cruelest cut of the lot since and if back to anywhere near his two victories over slightly further here in the Spring will be very hard to beat. Foxes Tales comes here in decent form but may ideally prefer softer ground whilst the penalised Solid Stone and Al Aasy’s stable companion Ilaraab will have to raise their games to turn over the favourite. He’ll be skinny but I find it hard to see past him. AL AASY 3 points win @ 5/6 Bet Victor Ayr 3.05 A decent sized field here as 15 go to post for the Group 3 Fifth Of Clyde Fillies Stakes. Likely favourite is Head Mistress who’s coming over from Ger Lyon’s County Meath base with his trainer in red hot form winning with 6 of his last 28 runners. She’s already won in listed company at The Curragh and is no doubt the one they all have to beat here. The one negative maybe her draw in stall 1, with the stalls in the centre means she’ll be on the flank with no cover. Scot’s Grace was a fancy of mine when getting no run last time out in the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes at Kempton but does have to prove her effectiveness on turf whilst fast ground looks against Choux. Hellmydarlin arguably brings the best form to the race with an official mark of 102 but this will be her eight race of the season and may not have as much scope as some of the others. The most interesting runner for me however is the Kevin Ryan trained Hala Hala Athmani. A half sister to the same owners smart sprinter Hello Youmzain ( who incidentally also won a maiden at Carlisle on his journey to the top) was super impressive when winning on her debut in a moderate 6F Carlisle maiden. All those that have run from that race from down the field have been beaten and there’s little doubt it was a modest contest but having fallen out the stalls and running green ended up winning easily by 6L. She falls into the ‘could be anything’ category and at an each way price I’ll be backing her with a small saver on Head Mistress who’s already got the form in the book. HALA HALA ATHMANI 2 points each way @ 5/1 1/5th 1234 Bet365 HEAD MISTRESS 1 point win @ 7/2 William Hill Newbury 3.25 A valuable £50k 10F handicap is up next with likely favourite being the William Haggas trained Aramaic who was very well supported when winning on his handicap debut at York earlier in the month. He’s up 7lb for that but is very much a player here. King Leonidas is an intriguing runner who has been working with Thursday evening’s Chelmsford winner Sunday Major. John & Thady Gosden’s Kingman colt has a long layoff to overcome and makes his handicap debut off of a very high mark of 102. Watch him in the market. The drop in trip may not be ideal for Sam a Cooke whilst Injazati has been shunted up 6lb for a win in a five runner class 4 all weather handicap at Newcastle. The horse I’m very interested in here is the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Mo’assess who makes his handicap debut today off of a mark of 93. He’s stepping up in trip and actually has a defeat of the favourite already on his CV when at level weights he defeated him by a neck at Kempton in early August. He’s receiving a pound today so there shouldn’t be too much between them. He’s gone in again at Kempton since when making all for a comfortable success under today’s jockey Ray Dawson. Being by Pivotal he won’t mind a bit of give in the ground and can reward an each way wager. MO’ASSESS 2 points each way @ 6/1 1/5th 1234 William Hill Ayr 3.40 As always a maximum field has assembled for the Ayr Gold Cup. More will no doubt be known about the draw once the Silver Cup has been digested a hour earlier but in the hope that low numbers may have the call I will be backing the favourite in Great Ambassador here and a big priced outsider who is also drawn very low. The last time we had a fast ground Ayr Gold Cup was back in 2014 when there was a fair split of low and high numbers at the finish so here’s hoping the best horses come to the fore. Great Ambassador is a progressive sprinter who’s in top form, trained by Ed Walker who’s running at a amazing 39% win ratio at present and loves fast ground. He looks sure to be thereabouts and will be my main bet. I have plenty of respect for Comanche Falls who comes here having won the Scottish and English Stewards Cups rising 10lb in the process and it would be no shock were he to run a big race. He’s drawn next to Great Ambassador in stall 2 and it’s the horse berthed one along in stall 3 that interests me at a price. Hey Jonesy, one of two Kevin Ryan runners in the race, has been running on soft ground this season (bar his re-appearance when 7F was too far and possibly fitness was an issue) and has dropped 4lb for those efforts to a mark of 98 which is 1lb lower than when he won last season’s Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot on good ground when blinkered for the first time. He’s undoubtably well handicapped for a trainer who’s won this race twice in the last ten years and has the assistance of Megan Nicholls, my favourite female jockey. At a big price with enhanced odds he’s worth playing each way as well. GREAT AMBASSADOR 2 points each way @ 5/1 1/5th 1234567 Paddy Power HEY JONESY 1/2 point each way @ 33/1 ¼ 12345 Bet365 Newbury 4.00 The 6F Mill Reef Stakes is a two year Group 2 contest which has attracted a decent sized field of ten. Well backed throughout the week has been the John and Thady Gosden trained Dhabab who has had a ten week break since his 1 1/2L third in the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket behind Native Trail and Masekela. Both of those have franked the form since with the latter winning the listed Washington Singer from Bayside Boy (won since) and the former now ranked as the best two year old around following his comfortable win in the Group 1 National Stakes last weekend in Ireland. Dhabab looked likely to win that day only to seemingly run out of stamina close home and the drop back to 6F looks a good move. Although the figures may not suggest it (he comes out joint 4th here on official ratings) he will be hard to beat. Plenty of the others bring decent group form to the table noticeably Gis A Sub who was runner up in the Gimcrack (Fearby 1 1/4L behind that day) and Gubbas who was third in the Richmond at Goodwood (Gis A Sub 2 1/4L behind that day). The latter maybe the biggest threat to Dhabab here. A lively big priced outsider is the John Ryan trained Manaccan who impressed when winning at Newmarket last month from Wajd and Reversion who have both won since. He could hit the frame at a price but for me it’s all about Dhabab. DHABAB 2 points win @ 9/4 William Hill Ayr 4.15 A tricky looking class 2 1M handicap where many have got good chances. Dance Fever will love the fast conditions and falls into that bracket along with Cruyff Turn who’s won three of his last four starts but is creeping up the handicap and has to race off of a career high mark of 98 now. Shelir is a consistent sort but always seems to find a way of getting beat. Garden Oasis is the other Easterby runner (alongside Cruyff Turn) and he too has had a fruitful season winning four times and like his stable mate has to race off of a career high mark of 91 (that’s not to say mind that he can’t be very competitive today). I’m drawn to the Richard Fahey trained Hong Kong Harry and that’s the one I’ll be playing here. A lightly raced gelding this is only his 7th career start and is two from two at the track having won twice at Ayr in the Spring on fast ground. He’s stepping up to a mile for the first time today and the way he finished over 7 1/2F at Lingfield in a racing league handicap suggests that a mile won’t be a problem. HONG KONG HARRY 2 points each way @ 13/2 1/5th 1234 Boylesports
  5. Another frustrating day - with a couple of seconds and just the one winner for a loss of 5.8 points.
  6. Ground has changed to good to soft (soft in places) at Donny which obviously throws a totally different feel to the card. My two selection's in the Portland are now non runners (Count D'Orsay is now interesting as hes a real mud lark) whilst I couldn't now fancy Laneqash (It woudn't be a shock if he was pulled out). Best bet on the card on the ground is now probably Raadborg in the last. Happy punting whatever you're backing today.
  7. Disappointing today with just a small return on the wonderful Stradivarius for a loss of 8 points. Saturday's thoughts have been uploaded.
  8. The final day of the St Leger meeting at Doncaster plus a couple of races from Chester (with a decent betting opportunity) and the Irish Champion Stakes from Leopardstown are all covered by terrestrial TV this Saturday and here’s my thoughts on those seven contests :- Doncaster 1.45 The Portland handicap is one of the season’s great handicap sprints and is run over an intermediate trip of 5 1/2F. Last years winner Stone Of Destiny is back to defend his title but is 7lb higher now so that will be tough. Likely favourite is top weight Hurricane Ivor who’s in excellent form and should be in the mix but at around 6/1 I’ll pass on him and take a couple of bigger priced ones against him. Jawwaal is part of my staking plan as he has such a good record at the track (321011) although the zero is when bombing out in this contest last year which is a bit of a concern. He’s been running consistently well all season and James Doyle looks an interesting jockey booking. The other sprinter I want on my side is Justanotherbottle who also arrives in good shape following a Great St Wilfrid victory with a decent 2nd in the Beverley Bullet. This trip looks ideal for him with Kevin Stott riding for the in form Kevin Ryan. Plenty of others can be given chances but I’ll stick with that pair each way with enhanced place terms. JUSTANOTHERBOTTLE 1 point each way @ 12/1 1/5th 123456 William Hills JAWWAAL 1 point each way @ 10/1 1/4 12345 Bet365 Chester 2.00 A listed contest to be run over 1M 4F of this tight turning track. Last years winner Alignak hasn’t been seen since but is joint top rated and Sir Michael Stoute’s grey entire should be thereabouts. Also top rated with him is the Andrew Balding trained Alounak who’s latest effort was an excellent third place in the Skybet Ebor off of a big weight. He won’t mind dropping back in distance and if taking to this unique track can take all the beating. Wells Farhh Go was market mover on Thursday but he’s been a shade disappointing and not seen enough to be of any interest here. Throne Hall is the other runner with a chance but I’ll take Alounak to beat Alignak. ALOUNAK 2 points win @ 5/2 Bet365 Doncaster 2.20 The Group 2 Champagne Stakes has attracted a small but select field of just four with John & Thady Gosden’s Reach For The Moon looking to do what his female stablemate did on Town Moor on Thursday in the May Hill Stakes. The Queen’s Sea The Stars colt has won his last two starts at Newbury by 4L (from subsequent triple winner Harrow) and Sandown by 4L and looks a terrific long term prospect with next years Derby the target. Frankie Dettori is in excellent form this week at the track and he will be hard to beat although he has a live threat here in the smart Lusail who he himself has done little wrong this season winning 4 of his 5 starts including the Group 2 July Stakes and the Gimcrack Stakes. He has to shoulder a 3lb penalty for those victories and can push the Gosden colt to the line but preference is for the current Epsom Derby favourite who may can be doubled up with Leger favourite Highland Lane. Chester 2.35 This 1m 6F 87yds handicap features to my eyes the best bet of the day. Arrow Of Gold is lightly raced but was comprehensively put in his place by Tricorn at Thirsk on his handicap debut in June and that horse has been beaten three times since. Kevin Ryan’s Galileo gelding is still the one to beat but I’ll take him on with top weight Hochfeld who’s got an outstanding record at the track with form figures of 11223 with the two seconds coming in listed company and the 3rd in this year’s Chester Cup off of a 2lb higher mark. He wasn’t disgraced in last Saturday’s Old Borough Cup at Haydock and now reverting back to his favourite hunting ground off of a winning mark looks decent each way value. Mark Johnstone’s 7lb apprentice Jonny Peate rides here and has impressed me this season having scored a double at Newcastle earlier in the week. He’s scored on 13 of his 83 mounts at a decent 16% win rate and his 7lb may turn out to be a steal. The only negative aspect is he’s drawn 10 of 10 but this is a 14F race where he can hopefully drop in and come with a late surging run. HOCHFELD 2 points each way @ 5/1 1/5 123 Bet365 Leopardstown 2.45 What a race we have in store here despite only four going to post for the Irish Champion Stakes. I am a massive fan of Dermot Weld’s Tarnawa and see her as the most likely Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe winner this year despite the strong three year old team around but Weld did say in the week that that is her main aim and with that in mind I’m going to over look her here dropping back in trip although I can see her running a massive race. Jim Bolger saddles his consistent three year old Poetic Flare and he too looks sure to run a big race but I have to select St Mark’s Basilica here as he has looked the real deal this season winning the French 2000, French Derby and Coral Eclipse at this trip. His defeat of Addeybb last time at Sandown with subsequent easy Juddmonte International Stakes winner Mishriff back in third was top class and Aidan O’Briens star three year old can take this in a race that I can’t wait for. ST MARKS BASILICA 2 points win @ 6/5 Boylesports Doncaster 3.00 The Group 2 Park Stakes is run over 7F and can go the way of the Newmarket based Roger Varian trained Laneqash who bounced back from a 294 day absence to run Sacred to a length in the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes at Newbury last month. He’s wisely been given a month to get over those exertions and looks a decent bet here unless the ground was to turn soft as he proved last backend in the Horris Hill at Newbury that that doesn’t suit this Cable Bay colt. Officially rated only a pound behind the selection is the Owen Burrows Shadwell colt Danyah who won a valuable Ascot handicap when last seen in July. Both Laneqash and Danyah are in the same ownership and the owner retained jockey Jim Crowley has picked Laneqash which looks like a tip in itself. Charlie Appleby saddles two runners in D’bai and Glorious Journey with preference for the latter but the Varian runner is a strong fancy on decent ground. LANEQASH 3 points win @ 7/4 BetVictor Doncaster 3.35 This year’s Cazoo St Leger has attracted 10 runners and features a strongly fancied odds on favourite in the Charlie Appleby trained Hurricane Lane who’s firm credentials are head and shoulders above the rest here having won the Irish Derby and the Grand Prix de Paris over 12F. The question is will he stay? He certainly sees his races out like he will and I believe he will. The interesting runner in the field is High Definition who has been supplemented for this at the cost of £40k and will be ridden by Frankie Dettori wearing cheek pieces for the first time (the horse not the jockey!). To be honest I’ve given up with the horse and a,though this trip will no doubt suit I can’t see him worrying the favourite. Aidan O’Brien saddles four including the aforementioned High Definition with Interpretation already proven at the trio and may end up the best of the quartet with Hollie Doyle taking a rare ride for the Ballydoyle maestro. The most likely winner here is Hurricane Lane and from a punting aspect I will double him up with Reach For The Moon from the earlier Champagne Stakes. HURRICANE LANE / REACH FOR THE MOON 3 points win double
  9. There maybe an odd shower or two but it seems we may well be racing on good fast ground again for day three of the Doncaster St Leger meeting. Here are my early thoughts :- Doncaster 140 The listed Flying Scotsman Stakes can produce a smart two year old and ten go to post for this years renewal. The form horse undoubtably is Roger Fell’s star two year old Eldrickjones but he’s still a maiden and although dropping in class may be vulnerable to something that’s on the upgrade. Charlie Appleby’s Noble Truth is held in high regard but was a bit disappointing last time out at York in the Group 3 Acomb Stakes and takes a drop in grade today. He should be on the premises for sure. York Convivial Maiden winner Hoi Ya Mal is going the other way and taking a step up in class but he looks classy and it would be no shock were he to take a hand in the finish. Throw in a couple of impressive maiden winners in Marcus Tregoning’s Ribhi and Richard Hannon’s Razzle Dazzle and we have a very interesting race of juveniles either stepping down in class or taking a step up the equine ladder. A tough call from a betting angle with slight preference for the Hannon runner Razzle Dazzle who couldn’t of been any more impressive when winning at Newmarket in August under his owners retained jockey Andrea Atzeni who rides again today. RAZZLE DAZZLE 1 point each way @ 11/2 1/5 123 BetVictor Doncaster 2.10 The Group 2 Flying Childers is run over the straight 5F and with eleven horses going to post will be some spectacle. The favourite Armor is the one they all have to beat being officially 6lb and more ahead of the field in ratings. His best effort at Goodwood was gained on soft ground so he won’t mind any more rain that may fall on Town Moor. I’m hoping the ground doesn’t ease too much though as I want to be with Eve Johnson Houghton’s Chipotle who was backed from 40/1 into 18/1 for the Nunthorpe las5 time against his elders and despite being squeezed out at the start made no impression in finishing 9th of the 14 participants. He had Armor behind when winning at Royal Ascot and I still feel there’s more sprint’s to be won with this Havana Gold colt when conditions suit. 5F on fast ground are what he needs and I’ll play each way as long as soft doesn’t creep into the going description in which case I would be all over Armor. CHIPOTLE (on good or faster ground) 1 point each way @ 10/1 1/5 123 Bet365 Doncaster 2.40 The 2m2F Doncaster Cup could easily be super star stayer Stradivarius’s final race on a racecourse as the ground could easily of gone by the time the Ascot Champions Meeting comes around in October and as long as the ground doesn’t go soft (in which his trainers John and Thady Gosden will no doubt pull him out anyway) he should be beating his six rivals today. There’s little doubt he’s not the horse he once was but he already holds Eagles By Day, Nayef Road (several times) and The Grand Visir so it’s hard to see any of that trio worrying Bjorn Nelson’s 7 year old. Trueshan is the one that can beat the favourite but only really if the ground went on the slow side, he too would be pulled out no doubt if his canny trainer Alan King felt there wasn’t enough juice in the ground. The improver in the race is the David Simcock runner Rodrigo Diaz who has officially 13lb to find mind. From a punting perspective I don’t think there’s an angle here without knowing the ground conditions as on fast ground Stradivarius wins with Trueshan a likely non runner and on soft ground Trueshan wins with Stradivarius a likely non runner! On genuine good ground I’ll stick with Stradivarius especially were he to drift to around the even money mark. STRADIVARIUS 2 points win @ 9/10 Paddy Power Doncaster 3.15 The Mallard Handicap is run over the St Leger distance of 1m6F 115yds and there are several contenders here who will be looking to the sky for some rain as they prefer to get their toe in. These include Prince Alex, Rhythmic Intent and Nuits St Georges. The most interesting runner in the field is bottom weight Sevenna Star who wears a hood for the first time and it’s trained by Irish trainer Emmet Mullins who’s horses must always be given a second look when he sends them over from Ireland. He has been well found in the market now and I’ll look elsewhere for the likely winner. One horse who will stay well is the Jane Chapple Hyam runner Uber Cool who impressed at Chester after a long break back in May and has run well in defeat twice since at 2m and latterly over 14F when 1 1/4L 4th to Yesyes in a listed contest at Chester. The handicapper has left him on the same mark and this Born To Sea gelding has an excellent strike rate of 7 wins from 16 career starts. Robert Tart has ridden him on two of his three most recent starts and is in the saddle today and with question marks over plenty of his rivals is decent each way value. UBER COOL 1 point each way @ 7/1 1/5 1234 Bet Victor Doncaster 3.45 A competitive 6F 111yds handicap concludes the ITV races at Doncaster on Day 3 with Assad currently heading the betting. He’s a lightly raced Shadwell horse who was touched off by one of his rivals today in Desert Doctor at Ffos Las last month. I’m not sure that form is worth that much and I’m prepared to take the pair of them on here. The horse I like is William Muir & Chris Grassick’s Mitrosonfire who’s been consistent all season winning four races. He beat Wednesday’s finale winner Wentworth Falls at Newmarket in August and races here off of only 3lb higher. He looks decent each way value with PJ McDonald taking over who’s two from two on the horse. MITROSONFIRE 1 1/2 points each way @ 13/2 1/5th 1234 BetVictor
  10. Three returns from five bets for a profit of 13.7 points. Friday's thoughts up shortly .
  11. Day two of the 2021 St Leger meeting will start on likely fast ground though that will need to be monitored with rain due throughout the end of the week. ITV has its cameras not just there but for a race at Epsom and here’s my early thoughts :- Doncaster 1.40 A 50k fillies nursery gets us up and running today and has quite an open feel to it. Charlie Appleby saddles his Invincible Spirit filly Summers Day who made light work of her opposition in a Brighton maiden last time with her mark of 81 looking reasonable. She should be thereabouts. Others with chances include David Evan’s top weight Dora Penny who’s on a hat trick and Ralph Beckett’s Daiquiri Francais who’s also on a hat trick following two wins at Windsor. An interesting outsider is bottom weight Gnat Alley who was slowly away last time but ran on to some effect and has already been supported in the ante post market. It’s not an easy race to solve but I’ll go with Daiquiri Francais who’s latest victory has been boosted by the runner up who’s won twice since. DAIQUIRI FRANCAIS 1 point each way @ 9/2 1/5th 1234 William Hill Doncaster 210 This 6 1/2F sales race has not surprisingly with prize money down to the tenth place attracted a maximum field of 22 and a confident selection is Andre Balding’s improver Harrow. It’s take a while for the penny to drop and he’s a lot more co-operative than when we first saw this son of El Kabeir earlier in the season. He followed up his Ffos Las win with a comprehensive victory in a 7F nursery at the York Ebor meeting over 7F and with the slight drop in distance unlikely to be an issue and a possible good draw in stall 15 he can run a big race. There’s plenty of dead wood here and the others likely to make a race out of it with Harrow are Tom Dascombe’s Ever Given who won a similar contest at York’s Ebor meeting and Jazz Club who looked when winning at Windsor 24 days ago and sporting first time blinkers today. HARROW 2 points each way @ 5/1 1/5th 1234 Bet365 Doncaster 2.40 Inspiral will be at skinny odds to take this, the Cazoo May Hill Stakes run over a mile for Newmarket handlers John and Thady Gosden who won this race last year with Indigo Girl. She picked up well last time in listed company when coming through to easily beat her field at Sandown. The step up to a mile will suit and the opposition don’t look good enough with the Balding runner Speak likely to chase home the favourite with her debut form working out so well. Too short to back singly but a banker in an accumulative bet. Epsom 2.55 The jump jockey’s Derby is run over the full Derby distance and is a unique race for professional jump jockeys. It’s only a 66-85 handicap and the one which takes my eye is the Fergal O’Brien trained Valentino Dancer. Predominately jumps trainer O’Brien has his trying in excellent shape winning with 7 of his last 18 runners and this 6 year old won for his daughter Fern at Newbury four weeks ago and may still have more to give following just a 2lb rise in the handicap. VALENTINO DANCER 1 point each way @ 5/1 1/5th 1234 Paddy Power Doncaster 315 The Group 2 Park Hill Stakes is the fillies ‘St Leger’ run over the Leger distance of 14F 115 yds and is open to three year olds and upwards. John and Thady Gosden saddle Free Wind who will go off favourite following an improved effort in France last time when winning a Group 3 at Deauville over 12F and steps up in trip here. That shouldn’t be a worry but the price is! At around the 2/1 mark I would rather be against her than with her and I’ll take her on with the Hugo Palmer trained Golden Pass who showed great tenacity when out battling Free Wind at Newmarket in a listed race at Newmarket in July and is a pound better off today. Unlike Free Wind though Golden Pass has gone on to run a lifeless race when a well supported second favourite behind Hukum in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury last month. There must of been a reason for that poor showing and at five times the price of the favourite I’ll play her each way in the hope that James Doyle’s mount can bounce back to form today. GOLDEN PASS 1 point each way @ 11/1 1/5th 123 William Hill Doncaster 345 Available as big as 9/2 earlier in the week Charlie Appleby’s improving three year old Modern News will be hard to beat today. He came back from a gelding operation and a 392 day absence to win at Newmarket on the last day of July and has been given time to get over that run. He’s been raised 6lb for that win but appeals as one that can win again before being elevated into pattern class. The main danger appears to be the William Haggas trained Motawaajed who’s chasing a hat trick following wins at Lingfield and here over course and distance. He’s only been raised 2lb for that latest win and can push the selection all the way. The best outsider may be TJ Kent’s Ataser who won a nursery at the meeting last year but has been very lightly raced since. MODERN NEWS 3 points win @ 11/8 William Hill
  12. Not much luck today, looks a day for the layers! Just the one winner at 6/1 and a loss of 15.8 points
  13. Here are my thoughts on the 8 ITV races for Saturday:- Haydock 1.45 The Group 3 Superior Mile has attracted a disappointing turnout of only five runners and it’s very hard to see past the favourite Lord Glitters here who is officially the highest rated. David O’Mera’s globetrotting veteran has two of today’s rivals Bell Rock and My Oberon a length and two and a half lengths respectively behind when runner up to the progressive Real World at York a fortnight ago and is actually better off at the weights with both of those and I find it hard to believe either will turn the tables on the grey. Artistic Rifles and Maydanny are stepping up from handicaps and this really does look Lord Glitters to lose. I’m keen on three shorties today and I also think it’s worth trebling the trio up. LORD GLITTERS 4 points win @ 6/4 Bet365 LORD GLITTERS, STARMAN, HUKUM 2 points win treble Kempton 2.05 Eight two year olds have declared for the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes and it has an open look about it. The best piece of form is arguably brought to the race by Clive Cox’s Wings Of War who was third in the Geoff’s Premier Yearling Sales races at York’s Ebor meeting. He should run well along with Andrew Balding’s Nymphadora who ran a good 5th in the Lowther Stakes last time. I’m happy though to go with the impressive course and distance winner Scot’s Grace who bolted up here back in July and missed a subsequent run at Windsor in August due to the soft ground. Trained by up and coming Newmarket handler Kevin Philippart De Foy the Mehmas filly may represent a touch of each way value (fingers crossed all eight run). SCOTS GRACE 1 point each way @ 5/1 1/5th 123 William Hill Haydock 2.20 An interesting 14F handicap for three year olds features the Melrose Handicap winner from York’s Ebor meeting in the unexposed Andrew Balding trained Valley Forge who was pushed out to win by half a length and has been raised 7lb for that success. He’s on the upgrade and looks the one they all have to beat here. Vino Victrix is chasing a hat trick following wins at Sandown and at Kempton and Hughie Morrison’s charge should be thereabouts. All eight runners have some sort of claim but I’ll be sticking with Valley Forge who beat a better field than this last time out. VALLEY FORGE 2 points win @ 2/1 Bet365 Kempton 2.40 A disappointing turnout of only five here for the Group 3 September Stakes and a warm favourite in Owen Burrows’ flag bearer Hukum. He will be hard to beat with question marks over his opponents. Second favourite Hamish was trained for the Ebor and was pulled out on the day when the ground dried up. He’s not raced on a synthetic surface before and has to overcome a 442 day absence. Prince Of Arran is surely using this as a stepping stone to another tilt at the Melbourne Cup whilst Fox Tal finds it hard to win nowadays and has acquired the dreaded Timeform squiggle. That just leaves Outbox who Hukum beat by a comfortable 1 1/2L at York in July. Despite a 3lb penalty for his Group 3 victories at York and Newbury this Summer he will be hard to beat on a surface he won on as a two year old. HUKUM 3 points win @ 8/11 BetVictor Haydock 2.55 A lot of the 12 runners for the Old Borough Cup are disappointing sorts who are out of form and I’ll be backing top weight Global Storm who has a touch of class about him. He made no impression when in mid field in the Ebor last time out but had previously been a consistent stayer winning at Newmarket in May and placed in top handicaps at Royal Ascot and Newmarket’s July meeting. His main danger may well be the bottom weight Noble Masquerade who’s receiving 22lb from the selection and comes here on the back of an impressive Windsor victory. GLOBAL STORM 2 points win @ 4/1 William Hill Ascot 3.10 The Lavazza Stakes is a class 2 12F handicap and is contested by some progressive three year olds. Top of the list has to be the Sir Michael Stoute trained Wahraan who followed up comfortable wins at Pontefract and York in July with a slightly unlucky 5th in a decent York handicap where he was beaten 2L by Migration when not getting the clearest of runs close home. He steps up in trip here which should suit and he’s my selection with Ryan Moore taking over from Kieran Shoemark. There are plenty of dangers though amongst whom are William Haggas’s Chalk Stream who’s chasing a hat trick of wins and Gary Moore’s Champagne Piaff who’s up 5lb and two furlongs for his gambled on Windsor victory. He looks Wahraan’s biggest danger to me. WAHRAAN 2 points win @ 3/1 William Hill Haydock 3.30 Eleven classy sprinters go to post for this years renewal of the Betfair Sprint Cup , a Group one contest run over 6F. It’s hard to look beyond favourite Starman with the ground coming right for him. He holds 8 of his 10 rivals on his impressive July Cup victory at Newmarket and in the circumstances ran a blinder last time in the Maurice de Gheest when soft ground and the additional half a furlong was his undoing. Ed Walker will have him spot on for this and it really is his race to lose. STARMAN 4 points win @ 10/11 William Hill Ascot 3.45 An interesting 7F handicap that gives us a couple of nice betting opportunities. Top Secret is the most likely winner to my eyes and has to be part of the staking plan here. He’s a progressive four year old trained by William Muir and Chris Grassick who’s latest second to Neenee’s Choice was franked by that one winning at Salisbury on Thursday. He’s already won over course and distance this season. Last year’s winner Documenting is back on the same mark and following a promising run at Doncaster should be on the premises whilst the other one I want as part of my staking plan is Ascot specialist Ripp Orf who’s track figures read 13125420 with the last run coming before a long absence. He showed very little on his comeback run at Sandown last month but this is his track and the handicapper has dropped him 9lb for his last two starts plus he has the assistance of a decent 7lb claimer in Jonny Peate. TOP SECRET 1 point each way @ 6/1 1/5th odds 1234 Paddy Power RIP ORFF 1 point each way @ 11/1 1/5th odds 1234 Paddy Power
  14. A frustrating day with just the one winner and four silver medals for a loss of 11 points !
  15. Not the best Saturday’s racing but interesting none the less and here’s my thoughts on the 7 ITV races which should be run on good fast ground. Goodwood 1.50 A decent turnout for the 7F Group 3 Prestige Stakes for 2 year old fillies with 11 going to post. The form horses are Hello You who has been placed in Group 3 and Group 2 company already this Summer when trained by Ralph Beckett but is now in the care of David Loughnane and appeared to take too keen a hold in a first time hood last time out at York in the Lowther when finishing 6th of 10 beaten 3 1/2L. The hood remains today and only time will tell if she’ll settle better today though the step up to 7F should help. She has her doubts now so the main selection for me has to be the Simon and Ed Crisford trained Daneh, a well related Dubawi filly, who following an impressive Kempton debut stepped up in grade and ran with plenty of credit when a 1 3/4L third to George Boughey’s Oscula in a Group 3 at Deauville. She missed the start that day and is very much in the upgrade. I’m also keen on having a small saver on the Andrew Balding trained Wilderness Girl who won a maiden at the big meeting last month doing us a favour and despite mixed messages from the form since (the 4th has actually won) it wouldn’t come as a surprise if like many of Balding’s this season take the step up in class in her stride. Fridays easy maiden winner Silk Romance gave a big boost to her Kempton conqueror Tinderbox and she too can run well here. DANEH 2 points win @ 4/1 BetVictor WILDERNESS GIRL 1 point each way @ 14/1 1/5 1234 William Hill Beverley 2.05 Only 7 go to post for this valuable 10F class 2 handicap which has an open look about it. Favourite here is likely to be the Roger Charlton runner Barn Owl who’s wearing cheek pieces for the first time. He’s was comprehensively beaten off of the same handicap mark at Ripon last time when 2 1/2L runner up to a progressive Haggas winner and may be vulnerable again here today. Bottom weight Life On The Rocks is an interesting runner who ran well on his first start for Richard Fahey at Ripon earlier in the month and with Fahey having won this race twice in the last five years has to be given respect. March Law (418 days) and Titan (309 days) are back from substantial lay offs for the big yards of Mark Johnstone and William Haggas respectively and have to be monitored in the betting. The best value may lie however with the Alan King trained No Recollection who was a Salisbury winner in May and appeared not to stay 12F at track last time. He’s been gelded since and is worth a small wager at the prices. NO RECOLLECTION 1 points win @ 15/2 William Hill Goodwood 2.25 Only ten go to post for this £50,000 7F handicap which has to be deemed as disappointing. Clive Cox has two strong contenders here in Dance Fever who was just touched off last time at Doncaster and the highly progressive Aratus who’s chasing a four timer here. Adam Kirby has ridden the latter on all four of his starts but is on Dance Fever today which isn’t as strange as first thought as Derby winner Kirby’s minimum weight is 9-0 and Aratus carries 8-7 today giving David Egan a chance to further bolster his bank balance which must be bulging with the worldwide exploits of Mishriff this year! Aratus has a nice draw in stall 2 and despite a 4lb rise for his latest win at Newbury looks ahead of the handicap and is the main bet here. Escobar comes here following two decent runs and looks certain to run his usual game race but it’s outsider Kimifive that I can’t resist a small ew saver on. He’s well handicapped (on same handicap mark as when winning over course and distance in May 2019), likes Goodwood ( form figures here of 310623 which includes a head second in the 2020 Stewards Cup off of a 4lb higher mark than today’s) and has left Joe Tuite to join David Bridgewater plus has drawn the plum stall 1. ARATUS 2 points win @ 5/2 William Hill KIMIFIVE 1/2 point each way @ 10/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 1234 Newmarket 2.45 Ten sprinters go to post here for the listed Hopeful Stakes and a strong fancy is the Owen Burrows trained Tabdeed. He’s officially the best in the field and had one of his rivals Royal Crusade (gelded now since that run) 3 3/4L behind when 3rd at Newbury in the Hackwood Stakes last time when going for back to back wins in that contest. He should be primed to win now following two starts this season and will be hard to beat. Khaadem is, on jockey bookings, the Shadwell Stud second string and with Summerghand and Mums Tipple carrying penalties this looks an ideal opportunity for Tabdeed to get back to winning ways. TABDEED 3 points win @ 85/40 BetVictor Goodwood 3.00 A disappointing turnout of just five go to post for the Group 3 March Stakes which features a skinny favourite in the Roger Varian trained Nagano who’s stepping up a couple of furlongs today which looks likely to suit. He impressed when winning a very competitive handicap at this track in July and having won three of his five starts is very much on the upgrade. He’s the one to beat and will be a hard nut to crack with David Egan in the plate. Only a pound behind on official ratings are the David O’Meara trained Juan De Montalban who’s joined him from France having cost 400,000 euros and Mark Johnstone’s Dancing King who was just run out of it close home last weekend by Yesyes at Chester. The only runner in the select field who actually has a Leger entry is the Andrew Balding trained Classic Lord who has 11lb to find with the favourite and selection Nagano but has already proven his stamina. He’s not a great price but it’s about finding the winner so the selection is Nagano but I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if Classic Lord ran well. NAGANO 3 points win @ 10/11 William Hill Beverley 3.15 A decent field of 12 have declared for this year’s renewal of the Beverley Bullet Sprint to be run over 5F and with a possible draw bias towards the far side and the rail of low numbers. Dakota Gold won this race last year from stall 8 of 9 and was out of his league in the Nunthorpe last time. He holds a decent chance though drawn 10 is not ideal. Drawn even further out is the William Haggas trained Hurricane Ivor in stall 12 and although on the book he should be thereabouts that position with no cover will not help him. Judicial has always gone well at this track (form figures of 1113 including the 2019 running of this race) and despite a 3lb penalty looks the one they all have to beat. He’s fared well with the draw in stall 5 and Julie Camacho’s flag bearer retains all his enthusiasm despite being 9 years of age. He comes here on the back of a defeat of Dakota Gold at Chester (3lb worse off now)under today’s jockey Callum Rodriguez and can take the spoils today. JUDICIAL 2 points win @ 4/1 Bet365 Goodwood 3.35 A cracking renewal of the Group 2 Celebration Mile with 9 likely to go to post although with a dry forecast it wouldn’t be a shock if Stormy Antarctic missed the gig as he prefers to get his toe in. The best in at these weights today is Saeed Bin Suroor’s globe trotting Benbatl who hasn’t been seen on a racecourse since Newmarket last September when a good 1L third to Kameko. On his best form he should be able to beat these and the vibes from Newmarket are good. I feel he can beat the five older horses that take him on here but whether he can cope with the three three year olds is another matter. They’re headed by Chindit who has kept Group one company this season finishing 5th in the 2000 Guineas, St James Palace and Prix Jacques Le Marois. Richard Hannon’s colt looks sure to go well and actually holds the Charlie Hills Mutasaabeq on their Guineas run although he bounced back to form when bolting in at Haydock last time. A tough one to call but I’ll stick with the undoubted class of Benbatl to beat the trio of three year olds. BENBATL 2 points win @ 3/1 William Hill
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