Villa Chris

4.05 Newton Abbot Lord Bryan 11/1 5.15 Newton Abbot Tikkinthebox 6/1 10 point wins Chase profit/loss -37.50 from 6 runs

Had to work late so didn’t watch the race. Going off write up the horse didn’t jump so well and then fell near the end. Chase profit/loss -37.50 from 6 races. no action tomorrow but two races Saturday I’ve got my eye on

I’ve just quickly scanned the card and it seems to me that System had the best form. Listed winner beating a horse rated 103 . Also ran well in a grade 3 and wasnt beaten far after being hampered. The horse would have got top points for form. That said 2 year olds are unpredictable so it’s not a race I’d have got involved in especially such a large field.

There was an horse that won yesterday called Bathiva . It was second on my ratings but it’s trainer Fergel O’Brien is in very good form. The horse also had Paddy Brennan guiding him around the track. I couldn’t help but think if it was head to head going up to the last that I’d rather be on Bathiva rather than on my top rated who had a 7Ibs claimer on board . Bathiva won . The yard are operating at 56% strike rate and Paddy Brennan 2/4 with one of those a second. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but next time I think I need to take trainer/jockey into account if a horse is right up there on my ratings . Bathiva was only half a point off my top rated. Saying that if mine had won I’d be saying trust the ratings so it works both ways and you can’t have it both ways. My sole selection today happens to be a Fergel O’Brien horse, but that’s just coincidence. Probably finish last 😁

Stratford 2.40 class 2 race, which should be very competitive . I have Courtandbould to come out on top. Trainer in red hot form and this will be only his third chase start having beat a couple of decent horses lto. Has won at distance over hurdles and should enjoy being upped in distance from his previous chase start. Course form reads 1/1/2, so obviously enjoys it here. 10 points win 3/1 Chase Profit/loss -27.50 from 5 races

No luck today . Longhouse Sale was disappointing and was beaten by Bathiva who’s yard are in red hot form with a top jockey on board. Little Bruce never travelled, and Pink Eyed Pedro second to the upped in distance Excelerator Express who won with ease. Try again tomorrow at Stratford . Chase profit/loss -27.50 from 5 races

Runs off 128 , so keeps dropping down the weights, but I’m not convinced. Had a promising start to his chasing career, but just hasn’t kicked on. Ran against some big names but well beaten. That said off 128 you’d think he’s got a chance, so I see the value element .This isn’t the strongest race as you mention. I’m not sure they know what to do with him at the minute.

Some familiar names at Worcester tomorrow, horse, jockeys and trainers all included. 5.30 Worcester The three of interest are Bathiva , Leapaway , and Longhouse Sale . If one of those 3 doesn’t win I’d be very surprised .All three score very high on my ratings. It’s the latter who comes out on top though. A slight pull in the weights and with a 7Ibs claimer might see him just reverse less than half a length defeat with Bathiva. Bathiva’s yard are in good form though with Paddy Brennan taking the reigns. Longhouse Sale 10 points win 11/4 6.00 Worcester class 2 action. A decent field and a lot with good chances . The two that stand out on ratings are Pink Eyes Pedro and Little Bruce with the latter being top rated. Stamina is certainly no issue for him and I think the slight drop down in trip may help him here and he could have some of these working hard behind him. Pink Eyed Pedro is running to a very high standard and could get rewarded here having been dropped 1Ib. The favourite Excelerator Express has a trainer and jockey in form and will probably take this up in distance in his stride , but he’s not proven and he’s up against plenty of good horses that are proven, so I’m happy to take him on. I’m going to go with both my top two rated here as both are very closely and only separated by an hair. Little Bruce 5 points win 11/1 Pink Eyed Pedro 5 points win 5/1 Chase profit/loss from 3 races -7.50

Sir TiVo finishes second. Didn’t jump with fluency but the winner won well. 2.50 points profit on the night Chase profit/loss from 3 races -7.50

Glad I split my stakes . Wishfull Dreaming wins , with Mr Mafia just pipped for second .

Race chat I think . Will put it under racing chat next time , so it comes up under search

@EQUALISER there’s another Monday racing chat thread that I started last night. That’s why it’s quiet in here 😁

Was going to ask the same thing. Maiden hurdler on chase debut .

The winner wins on his chase debut at 28/1 . He was also a maiden hurdler. Too many unknowns in lower class novice chases for my liking.

Authorizo 11/1 looks too generous and he shouldn’t be that IMO.