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Villa Chris

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Everything posted by Villa Chris

  1. 4.05 Newton Abbot Lord Bryan 11/1 5.15 Newton Abbot Tikkinthebox 6/1 10 point wins Chase profit/loss -37.50 from 6 runs
  2. Had to work late so didn’t watch the race. Going off write up the horse didn’t jump so well and then fell near the end. Chase profit/loss -37.50 from 6 races. no action tomorrow but two races Saturday I’ve got my eye on
  3. I’ve just quickly scanned the card and it seems to me that System had the best form. Listed winner beating a horse rated 103 . Also ran well in a grade 3 and wasnt beaten far after being hampered. The horse would have got top points for form. That said 2 year olds are unpredictable so it’s not a race I’d have got involved in especially such a large field.
  4. There was an horse that won yesterday called Bathiva . It was second on my ratings but it’s trainer Fergel O’Brien is in very good form. The horse also had Paddy Brennan guiding him around the track. I couldn’t help but think if it was head to head going up to the last that I’d rather be on Bathiva rather than on my top rated who had a 7Ibs claimer on board . Bathiva won . The yard are operating at 56% strike rate and Paddy Brennan 2/4 with one of those a second. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but next time I think I need to take trainer/jockey into account if a horse is right up there on my ratings . Bathiva was only half a point off my top rated. Saying that if mine had won I’d be saying trust the ratings so it works both ways and you can’t have it both ways. My sole selection today happens to be a Fergel O’Brien horse, but that’s just coincidence. Probably finish last 😁
  5. Stratford 2.40 class 2 race, which should be very competitive . I have Courtandbould to come out on top. Trainer in red hot form and this will be only his third chase start having beat a couple of decent horses lto. Has won at distance over hurdles and should enjoy being upped in distance from his previous chase start. Course form reads 1/1/2, so obviously enjoys it here. 10 points win 3/1 Chase Profit/loss -27.50 from 5 races
  6. No luck today . Longhouse Sale was disappointing and was beaten by Bathiva who’s yard are in red hot form with a top jockey on board. Little Bruce never travelled, and Pink Eyed Pedro second to the upped in distance Excelerator Express who won with ease. Try again tomorrow at Stratford . Chase profit/loss -27.50 from 5 races
  7. Runs off 128 , so keeps dropping down the weights, but I’m not convinced. Had a promising start to his chasing career, but just hasn’t kicked on. Ran against some big names but well beaten. That said off 128 you’d think he’s got a chance, so I see the value element .This isn’t the strongest race as you mention. I’m not sure they know what to do with him at the minute.
  8. Some familiar names at Worcester tomorrow, horse, jockeys and trainers all included. 5.30 Worcester The three of interest are Bathiva , Leapaway , and Longhouse Sale . If one of those 3 doesn’t win I’d be very surprised .All three score very high on my ratings. It’s the latter who comes out on top though. A slight pull in the weights and with a 7Ibs claimer might see him just reverse less than half a length defeat with Bathiva. Bathiva’s yard are in good form though with Paddy Brennan taking the reigns. Longhouse Sale 10 points win 11/4 6.00 Worcester class 2 action. A decent field and a lot with good chances . The two that stand out on ratings are Pink Eyes Pedro and Little Bruce with the latter being top rated. Stamina is certainly no issue for him and I think the slight drop down in trip may help him here and he could have some of these working hard behind him. Pink Eyed Pedro is running to a very high standard and could get rewarded here having been dropped 1Ib. The favourite Excelerator Express has a trainer and jockey in form and will probably take this up in distance in his stride , but he’s not proven and he’s up against plenty of good horses that are proven, so I’m happy to take him on. I’m going to go with both my top two rated here as both are very closely and only separated by an hair. Little Bruce 5 points win 11/1 Pink Eyed Pedro 5 points win 5/1 Chase profit/loss from 3 races -7.50
  9. Sir TiVo finishes second. Didn’t jump with fluency but the winner won well. 2.50 points profit on the night Chase profit/loss from 3 races -7.50
  10. Glad I split my stakes . Wishfull Dreaming wins , with Mr Mafia just pipped for second .
  11. Race chat I think . Will put it under racing chat next time , so it comes up under search
  12. @EQUALISER there’s another Monday racing chat thread that I started last night. That’s why it’s quiet in here 😁
  13. Was going to ask the same thing. Maiden hurdler on chase debut .
  14. The winner wins on his chase debut at 28/1 . He was also a maiden hurdler. Too many unknowns in lower class novice chases for my liking.
  15. Authorizo 11/1 looks too generous and he shouldn’t be that IMO.
  16. With a few on here betting on the 5.35 at Bangor, thought I’d have a look at it. I won’t be parting with cash as it’s a class 5 novice chase . I’ve got the top 3 as this, which means nothing , but see how it fares . Authorizo 11/1 nowhere War At Sea 4/1 4th The Some Dance Kid 15/2 3rd
  17. All eyes on Bangor for me. Two chases which I’ll attempt to make profit from . I’m not bothering with Hurdle races anymore. 6.35 I cannot split Mr Mafia and Wishfull Dreaming , so I’ve decided to split stakes and go with both. These two were 1-2 the other week with the latter 4Ibs better off this time for a 3 and a half length defeat, although having watched the race again Mr Mafia was eased near the line and the 12 year old is in very good form this year , and still handicapped to win. That’s not to say I think it’s a two horse race because the favourite Kabrit could be anything winning 2/2 chase starts without really being troubled. He’s up in class today against some hardened veterans, and with him being only 6, I fancy him to have a tough task here. He seems to like to race off the pace and then make headway late on, where as Mr Mafia likes to front run so will be good to see how that pans out. 5 points win Mr Mafia 10/3 5 points win Wishfull Dreaming 7/2 8.05 Sir TiVo rates the one to beat here. He’s in cracking form in his early years of chasing and seems to still be ahead of his mark. He’s been raised 7Ibs but his last RPR indicates that may not be enough to halt him , add to that they have put a 7Ibs claimer on board to offset the rise which could help his cause even more. CD winner and heavily tipped . 10 points win Sir TiVo 11/8 -30
  18. Think I’ve mentioned this before but going through what records I do keep in my notepad, I’m still noticing that I don’t seem to do well over hurdles, but results are better over chases. This has been going on for sometime . Chases are also my favourite kind of race coincidentally. I’ve decided to drop hurdle races from now on. Both hurdle selections ran poorly yesterday with my chase selection just being pipped near the line. That narrows it down even more for me as I’ve very little interest in the flat racing. Will no doubt take part during the Cheltenham festival , but from now on hurdles will be put to one side. Luckily plenty of chases next week and it just means I’m more selective which isn’t a bad thing. No idea why this is the case and could be coincidental .
  19. Good stuff , although wrong way round. Did you have reverse forecast ?
  20. Mrs Hyde has far from drifted. She’s gone the other way. 13/2 from 17/2 last night. I’ve got bog , so see if she drifts, but can’t see forecast odds of 12/1 for her. I’ve taken 4/1 for Cauis Marcius bog again. Brotherly Company has drifted to 11/4 but I took 9/4 last night as I thought he would shorten .
  21. Some jump racing for me to have a go at tomorrow . Will be starting a profit/loss update with my bets from now on. My top rated for the 3 races I’ve looked at. Perth 3.50 Mrs Hyde, current price is 17/2. I’m going to hold off that because forecast odds are 12/1 and it’s not bog until 9.00 tomorrow morning. She’s been out of sorts this year after running well the previous and is now on her last winning mark . Ingleby Hollow is second in the ratings. Perth 4.25 Cauis Marcius, currently 7/2, and again I’m going to wait until the morning to see if I can squeeze a bit more out of him. 3/4 at Perth with Brian Hughes on board. Competitive little race but I’m hoping he’s got too much class for the field and I still have him handicapped to win. Second in the ratings is the consistent Dakota Beat Perth 4.55 Brotherly Company 9/4. I’ve taken the price as I think it will go off shorter. Progressive RPRs and won his last two with ease . Seems to still have a few Ibs to spare so hopefully the hat-trick beckons . Second in the ratings is Top Of The Charts All 10 point wins , will update odds at 9 tomorrow
  22. I was curious and checked, and yes it finished 3rd . Unraced previous to the race wasn’t he?
  23. My mother-in-law knows sod all about horses but she’s keeps knocking at the door for a big pay day. She’s does small stake accas and the amount of times one horse has let her down. She did win a few grand the once, but she’s came very close to five figure pay outs. She goes by name or gut feeling and doesn’t let price put her off.
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