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neilovan last won the day on September 7 2019

neilovan had the most liked content!


About neilovan

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  • Birthday 10/07/1963

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  1. Wolves v Man CIty I'm really not sure what to make of this fixture. Aguero injured, and a stale/flat Man City team away to a bogey team? How hard is Pep pushing these guys and are they up for the challenge? Do the demands of a very intense, focused coach eventually exhaust the batteries? Man City lost 4 of their last 7 away game last season, but maybe they were just demotivated. I would not be betting the away win here, just too many unanswered questions. SO possibly the Home double chance (2.7), or home win draw no bet (5.5), or the home win(7). But then Wolves have sold Jota to Liverpool, and that will hurt them. I think at the beginning of the season when less is know, a smaller bet for big odds is a good option. HOME WIN at 7.
  2. To me Fulham showed intent going forward, or trying to against Arsenal. They just lack so much quality that those intentions just showed badly. I don't think they will sit in and defend, as they are just not good enough to do it.
  3. I agree with your comments, but I think United will be a little bit better this season in a few key areas. 1) de Gea let in so many soft goals last season it was crazy. He will up his game or be warming the bench. In last years meeting the Palace winner bounced off him and into the goal (van Aanholdt). He is a great keeper, now he must front up and play like one. 2) The United defense will improve. Not but a huge amount, but enough to drop the BTTS numbers down from 14 in 2018, to 11 in 2019 to around 7 this season. For me those BTTS odds should be around 2.4, so the bookies are a little stingy there.
  4. I think your Odds are wrong for the straight Everton win here.
  5. Man United v Crystal Palace This is just such a banana skin for United. Palace play a weird style of flooding the defensive zone, and making it difficult for the opposition to create quality chances. They have weapons and can hurt teams on the break, or from a set-piece. It is the exact recipe that Man United struggle with. United would need an early goal to open the game up, but Palace know this, so will play a tight first half. I would expect Man U to be better at home this season, but the defense has not been strengthened. Is Lindelof a huge improvement over Chris Smalling? I think not. My feeling is that Smalling is a better partner for Maguire. Not his fault that he played in a lot of average to poor Man United teams. Which de Gea shows up? The superstar, or the one who let's goals in off his hands? My feeling is that Fernandez will be shut down quicker this season. Last season he was an unknown quantity ... this season opponents won't let him play with such freedom. The home win at odds of 1.33 is a joke. Untouchable. The over 2.5 goals looks a long shot as I think there won't be more than 1 first half goal scored. For me a 0-1 or 1-0 2-0 scoreline looks very likely. The under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.2 looks decent bet here.
  6. I looked at that Spurs v Everton game again, and Spurs were a little unlucky in the 1st half. They had 3 really good chances, 2 saved and 1 blown by Son not rolling the ball onto a Free Kane. But when they went behind, they showed no ability to break down a team that was sitting in, defending well and playing decently. For me one guy who has to improve for Everton is Richarlison. They are setting him up and he is missing chance after chance. I was very impressed with James ... the guy looks really motivated and very fit. No fat on him at all..
  7. Leeds v Fulham Watched most of the first weekends games and Fulham definitely stood out as being poor. Arsenal are not a great away team, but it was a stroll in the park for them. Fulham barely created a chance. They look out of their league at the moment. Leeds were very good against Liverpool, and slightly unlucky. They ran out of steam towards the end of the game. They should have way too much for a limited Fulham side. I would expect goals in this game, as Leeds look very open at the back, but show some style and skill going forward. It won't be dull! Prediction : Leeds home win and over 2.5 goals : Odds 2.63
  8. Wow, Fulham just useless. Hard to see another PL team that is worse than them.
  9. Fulham v Arsenal I just don't like Arsenal as an away team. They fail to deliver all the time. In the last 3 seasons in away games against relegation candidates, they have won just 5 times in 15 games. Last season they failed to win 4 times (Villa 1-0, Bournemouth 1-1, Norwich 2-2, Watford 1-1). They managed a come from behind win over West Ham. In away league games against the top 5 teams (Chelsea, Liverpool, Man CIty, Man United, Tottenham, Leicester) they are pathetic, winning 2 games out of 34 over the last 8 seasons. For me you just cannot be firing money at this bet at odds of 1.59. I would be taking Fulham double chance here at odds around 2.5 Crystal Palace v Southampton My feeling is that Palace will be in trouble this season. They were just awful at the end of last season, and it is not so easy to switch it back on, and start winning. I think they could be relegated, and will be in big early trouble. Unlike Arsenal, SOuthampton have been great against relegation candidates. Last season they had away wins againts Villa 1-3, Bournemouth 0-2, Norwich 0-3, Watford 1-3, and lost 3-1 to West Ham. I think they have beaten Palace 3 times in 4 seasons away. So for me the away win looks solid, and the Away win and over 2.,5 goals is a possibility at odds of 4. Liverpool v Leeds I think Liverpool win here against a spiritedLeeds side, but I do see Leeds scoring. I feel a 3-1 or 4-1 scoreline on the cards.The Liverpool Home WIn and Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.8 looks solid. Tottenham v Everton My feeling is that Tottenham are going backwards. I don't think Mourinho was a good fit for them, and the first part of the gamble (getting CL football) has already failed. I think this season could be a train smash. In 4 of the last 6 seasons they have only won 12 or fewer home games. A Championship winning team, or a CL qualifier probably needs at least 14 home wins. I think Harry Kane becomes more an more isolated as Spurs play a style that absolutely does not suite him. Spurs really struggle against those top 1/2 teams at home, winning just 6 times in 18 games (last 2 seasons). Can Mourinho get the best out of this squad? I don't think so. You can only go so far by stopping your opponent from playing ... eventually you have to play some football yourself ! Everton is a potential banana skin for Spurs here, and I would be going away double chance.
  10. EPL Final Day Let's split the games up into those where there is something to play for, and those that will feature two unmotivated teams. Low Motivation games Most footballers who fall into this category, just want the end of the season. Have a break, and a Summer vacation with the family. The season has been too long, and the energy levels are flat. There is nothing to play for in these games. Burnley v Brighton Manchester City v Norwich Newcastle v Liverpool Crystal Palace v Tottenham Southampton v Sheffield United Highly Motivated games Leicester v Man United Chelsea v Wolves Everton v Bournemouth West Ham v Aston Villa Arsenal v Watford Leicester City v Man United : For me this is a great matchup for Man United. Leicester don't sit deep, don't want the ball, don't really press, and enjoy playing attacking football. It is the exact recipe that United want. They have a deadly front trio, in Martial, Greenwood and Rashford, but need to play the ball quicker, and be more direct. I actually don't blame Pogba for giving away the penalty in the previous game. He took his eye off the ball, but the shot on goal was a shank ... unlucky it just flew straight at his head. His expectation of that situation was almost zero. If I would make 2 changes, I would bring in McTominay for Matic, and give Williams some freedom. Don't stop and kick every ball backwards ! My feeling is that United win quite comfortably here. Chelsea v Wolves : I don't see Chelsea winning this one. Three very hard games in a row is a tough ask, and the gas tank may be empty here. Also a Man United away win will help Chelsea as a draw (in this case) will be good enough for CL football next season. I think 1-1 is on the cards here. West Ham v Aston Villa : Villa are so close to a huge escape. I liked their attitude at the beginning of the season, where they showed the intention of staying in the EPL, and I hope they do. West Ham are safe, nothing to play for, but they have been very good against their direct competition here. A low scoring game that Villa could sneak 1-0. Arsenal v Watford : Lets starts this with Troy Deeney's "Arsenal lacking ­'cojones'" comment. Surely Arsenal would like to have the last laugh now, and send Watford down. And I think they will do it quite easily. Watford are a poor away team and have been so bad on the road this season. If you remove the away games against Bournemouth and Norwich they have scored just 7 goals in 16 away games. They have not managed more than a goal in any of these games. Everton v Bournemouth : Are both Watford and Aston Villa going to lose and Bournemouth going to win ? Seems unlikely, so Bournemouth are probably down. But they have had such terrible defensive issues this season. Bournemouth will attack, they have to, but I think they get caught multiple times on the break here. I would be going over 2.5 goals in this game. Good luck.
  11. Man United v West Ham I think that Solskjaer will go back to the formation and team that has been doing so well recently. A front 3 of Martial, Rashford and Greenwood looks brilliant. The pace of these guys is unreal, and Greenwood is a gem. Let them play in front of Fernandes and Pogba with Matic or McTominay holding. Looks pretty damn good. Williams or Shaw makes no difference to me, Wan Bissaka is really solid ... So can Lindelof and Maguire keep a clean sheet ? I don't think so and that scares me away from the HT/FT Man United home win bet. This bet has slightly better odds than the home win & over 2.5 goals bet, but I think the home win and over 2.5 goals is a better bet. If Man United get an early goals (say before the water break), they could romp here. Over 2.5 goals and home win. Liverpool v Chelsea What a difficult game to call. Liverpool going through the motions of winding the season up. Chelsea coming off a huge win against Man United. Then add a weird strange atmosphere, for what should be a pulsating games (in front of a crowd), and it could all be dull affair. On the road, Chelsea give up goals, and since the restart have given up 9 goals in 4 games. They cannot keep a clean sheet, and my feeling is that Liverpool could shred them here. An early home goal and Chelsea could fall apart, considering how bad they are at chasing a game. I think there are goals aplenty here, considering the effort Chelsea put in, pressing Man United a few days ago. The Liverpool win and over 2.5 goals looks nice at a solid price of 2.8
  12. I think the big problem for Pep here was that Arteta knew exactly how he would set up and what City would try and do. Also, it was Arsenal's biggest game of the season., where they had nothing to play for against Villa.
  13. I just do not rate Arsenal, especially away from home. I have a feeling they may have a massive letdown after the Man City game. That semi was their season, and they might be totally flat here. I have a weird feeling that Villa pull a surprise here, and win against the odds. They simply cannot fold up and go meekly. A little bit of fight and desperation may be what they need. Going for the big odds, small stakes with a Villa win and over 2.5 goals (Odds of 5.5)
  14. 2-0 in 8 minutes , gotta love it. More chance of winning at roulette at the moment.
  15. Hey, I used to be playing 7 days a week, and started years ago on PokerStars, Paradise Poker, Ultimate Bet, Full tilt, Piggs Peak etc. My feeling is that online is dangerous. It is very easy to cheat, and say what they like, the various sites are clueless on how to stop it. Two things I would say. If you play a game like PLO, then you better have the right mindset for it. Big swings, and very volatile. You go from HIGH to LOW all day, and it's a game where you are going to get run over often. For me not worth playing online because you can get sandwiched between a low double suited wheel and a high double par hand easily (you get too much multi player action). If I was playing online, I would want to play the same few guys HEADS-UP on a regular basis (and holdem). If I know I am a better player, making better reads, better folds, with better pre-flop discipline, I don't want others getting in the way. I don't mind losing to someone 2 times in every 10 meetings because in the long run I'm crushing it. And when you lose, don't steal their thunder or deny them the enjoyment of winning .... this way it's just a loan ... the cash comes back home. Also, there is no collusion heads-up ! For me nothing worse than losing a huge hand to the table donkey in a live game, and then watching him donk your cash off to everyone else except you ! You sit there smiling through the aggravation, playing a game at a snails pace, seething inside, while this clown spews chips. Heads up reduces this scenario to zero.