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neilovan last won the day on September 7 2019

neilovan had the most liked content!


About neilovan

  • Birthday 10/07/1963

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    Jo'burg (Sunshine Capital of the World)
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    Sports betting, Machine Learning & Data Science , Making Money

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  1. Was looking at the weather forecast and it is going to be a lot hotter tomorrow than it was today. Up in the low 30's. Straaight away I would be thinking of betting against Alison van Uytvanck, who will struggle in the heat. A few potential upsets. I like Pedro Martinez to beat Garin. Martinez, young, up and coming 24 year old from Spain. Solid player will be tough. He is heading in an upward path. Jessica Pegula not playing particularly well. Lost two warm up matches and should have lost first round. Pera easily capable of causing an upset here. van Uytvank (as mentioned above) not great in the heat and she will struggle tomorrow. Just have a feeling that Maria Sakkari is going to grind, not in particularly good form and looked quite nervous in the 1st round.
  2. So then 4 points is pretty darn good. I once played a junior tournament against a guy where I won the 1st 17 points of the match. At 4-0 15 love he hit a net cord that rolled a meter along the net and fell over.
  3. Insane. Stephens wins 2X as many points in the 7th game, as she did in the WHOLE of the 1st set. Surely winning fewer than 4 points in a grand slam set of tennis must be a record ? Radacanu is playing badly and Stephens is even worse.
  4. Matches still to go on today, I do like Kyrigos over Broady, Marnio over Bouzkova and Stephens to beat Radacanu
  5. I definitely agree with both those bets. Earlier in the season , Kostyk beat Radacanu and it seems to have given her a lot of belief. Bencic been playing really well. Crazy, only 24 but is absolutely a fierce competitor.
  6. Going back to this 30 legged impossible bet. At the end of the day it wins 27 of 30 legs, relatively easily. Ruud, Casper vs Molcan, Alex 2-Way Odds (12) - 11.19 Van Uytvanck, Alison vs Bucsa, Cristina 2-Way Odds (12) - 11.35WON Bektas, Emina vs Samsonova, Liudmila 2-Way Odds (12) - 21.23WON Alcaraz, Carlos vs Tabilo, Alejandro 2-Way Odds (12) - 11.24WON Kukushkin, Mikhail vs Paul, Tommy 2-Way Odds (12) - 21.25WON Bautista Agut, Roberto vs Travaglia, Stefano 2-Way Odds (12) - 11.10WON Wang, Qiang vs Gauff, Cori 2-Way Odds (12) - 21.13 Hurkacz, Hubert vs Gerasimov, Egor 2-Way Odds (12) - 11.14WON Giron, Marcos vs Nadal, Rafael 2-Way Odds (12) - 21.07WON Tomljanovic, Ajla vs Badosa, Paula 2-Way Odds (12) - 21.27WON Sorribes Tormo, Sara vs Flipkens, Kirsten 2-Way Odds (12) - 11.27WON Barty, Ashleigh vs Tsurenko, Lesia 2-Way Odds (12) - 11.09WON Khachanov, Karen vs Kudla, Denis 2-Way Odds (12) - 11.13WON Osorio Serrano, Maria Camila vs Osaka, Naomi 2-Way Odds (12) - 21.13WON Manchester City vs Chelsea FC 3-Way Odds (1X2) - 1WON1.58 Djere, Laslo vs Shapovalov, Denis 2-Way Odds (12) - 21.14WON 1. FC Cologne vs Bayern Munich 3-Way Odds (1X2) - 21.38WON Munar Clar, Jaume Antoni vs Karatsev, Aslan 2-Way Odds (12) - 21.27WON Azarenka, Victoria vs Udvardy, Panna 2-Way Odds (12) - 11.11WON Krejcikova, Barbora vs Petkovic, Andrea 2-Way Odds (12) - 11.20WON Bencic, Belinda vs Mladenovic, Kristina 2-Way Odds (12) - 11.18WON Parry, Diane vs Kostyuk, Marta 2-Way Odds (12) - 21.22WON Hanfmann, Yannick vs Kokkinakis, Thanasi 2-Way Odds (12) - 21.27 Gomez, Emilio vs Cilic, Marin 2-Way Odds (12) - 21.09WON Kenin, Sofia vs Keys, Madison 2-Way Odds (12) - 21.57WON Ivashka, Ilya vs Andujar, Pablo 2-Way Odds (12) - 11.15 Diyas, Zarina vs Rybakina, Elena 2-Way Odds (12) - 21.17WON Ferro, Fiona vs Svitolina, Elina 2-Way Odds (12) - 21.25WON Kontaveit, Anett vs Siniakova, Katerina 2-Way Odds (12) - 11.14WON Rublev, Andrey vs Mager, Gianluca 2-Way Odds (12) - 11.04WON So what I am trying to show is that it is more than possible to go close to 27/28 of 30 selections early rounds, and probably even better. But by the end of round 2 this is a done deal. If you take 10, 3 legged bets and are getting around 8 to 10 on each one, and you win 7, you win 5.6 units and lose 3 units (7x0.8 and -3, which is a reasonable 26% return). You win 8 of your 10 bets and you win 6.4 units and lose 2 for a 44% gain, with risk spread over 30 contestants. Even with 6 wins in 10 you are slightly ahead. So this approach definitely works in the 1st 2 rounds of big draw tournaments, where there are lots of matches. Just don't duplicate a player in a bet, as it costs you 2 bets if they lose.
  7. Have you compared your returns against what you would have done with fkat staking?
  8. Just curious as to how you are figuring out your variable staking?
  9. No, it's also something that he has to live with. Imagine causing the death of someone via Covid that you gave to them? That attitude is partially the reason that he is not 'loved' like Federer and Nadal.
  10. I think that Martincova was 5-1 down in her match, and came back and blitzed her opponent. Gives a person a lot of confidence. Giorgi scares me. I find it's either feast or famine (did she win Cincinnati beating 5 top 20 players)? I don't know which version of her jumps outta the box here.
  11. He will go and get vaccinated. A process that opens up all doors.
  12. Cornet always seems to find a way over the line in these games. If you are looking for upsets I think Zvonereva against Mertens is definitely worth a bet. Mertens lost first match in Aus, and Zvonereva is a really solid player. My 2nd upset would be Cirstea to beat Kvitova, who has been shaky, and not near her best. 3rd one is Rebecca Marino to beat Bouzkova. Big serve, first strike tennis. For me to see Radacanu as a favourite over Stephens is a joke. She has just been smashed around, and will really really struggle in the match. I can't see Radacanu winning this one.
  13. Having watched most of the ATP cup, and the woman's and men's warm up tournaments, one thing is clear. Travel to Australia is a long journey, and jet-lag and acclimation are playing a big part. Those who have not played a warm up match or two have not that fared well. Normally jet -leg is worse when going West to East, so maybe for players from the USA it is less, but a few weeks of settling in definitely make a big difference here. So most top players who warmed up at the ATP cup will be ready to go (Bautista Agut, Shapavalov, Creeno-Busta , Auger Alliasime, Medvedev, Zverev etc). Pegula lost two matches in a row, and could easily have been 0 and 3 today. Tiafoe lost two matches in a row Kvitova looks in poor form. Medvedev lost 1st match, ATP cup. Lloyd Harris played really badly (I think over 66 unforced errors) K Andersen lost both his matches in Aus. Radacanu got demolished. One guy that has played a lot of matches in Aus that I think is rock solid is Dan Evans. He did well in the ATP cup, (3 singles win and 2 doubles wins) and won 2 matches in Sydney (lost very close to Karatsev in semi). He will be ready, which can't be said about his opponent (Goffin), who comes back after long injury. At Sydney he retired a set down against Murray. Evans only 1.28 for the win, but I think he does it easily. You can't buy 5 set match fitness. Only comes from playing. My 2nd pick is Casper Ruud over ALex Molcan. Ruud played ATP cup, did pretty well, rested last week. He should be a solid winner here. My 3rd Pick is Diego Schwartzman. Again, someone who played ATP cup (beat Basilashvilli and Tsitsipas), and rested last week. He plays Filip Krajinovic and should just be too strong in what is a clash of very similar styles. My last pick in this grouping is Ugo Humbert playing Richard Gasquet. Humbert played ATP (had terrific victory over Medvedev). He plays Richard Gasquet, who's tennis pro days are coming to an end. Gasquet also not played a competitive match in Aus this year, so he's just there to get the 1st round money and go home. So the 4 legged bet gives odds of 14 to 10 which is fine for me. Humbert, Evans, Schwartzman, Ruud
  14. Always had injury worries, so maybe just a letdown. Interesting to see these players coming to the end of their careers such as Andersen, Fognini, Gasquet, Querry, Millman (nice setup draw tennis Australia), Lopez. Two matches starting now I do like Tommy Paul and Karatsev to both win, combined with Tiechmann (in progress) it is about 8 to 10 .
  15. No worries mate! Think I'm just steaming because I woke up and saw Gauff lost. 4 and 2. How is that even possible?😆 Amazing to see Kokkinakis going down the drain as well, especially after winning tour on Saturday.
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