neilovan

Was watching the end of the Noskova v Osorio match. Just awful tie break from Noskova, against somebody that she should beat 8 times in 10. Her volleying is just pathetic. Missed 4 times in the breaker and they were all sitters. I did not have a bet on her, but odds around 1.28 for the Noskova win are a joke. It's the 2nd lousy match she has played in a couple of weeks. Losing in Aussie open qualifiers was the 1st. So inconsistent and unfocused against bog average opponents. Basically untouchable below odds of 7 to 10.

Really nothing in it, just a couple of points here and there. Was very impressed with Sabalenka's serve. It held up, except for 1 double on match point. In previous years she would have served 10 doubles in the 3rd set. Probably with Swiatek, these two will form a very tough trio, and could dominate woman's tennis for years. Maybe just below are Garcia and Badosa. The balls are quite an issue at the AO. Dunlop are making a strange ball that fluffs up quickly (4 games). Big servers don't like it, as it slows the ball down through the air. But Djoko loves it. Just is perfect for his game. I am not a big fan of players who don't work hard on their game. Hey, you are a professional. You owe it to yourself to really work hard and improve constantly. Look at the players who have stayed similar in the last few years ... Medvedev (game hastotally stagnated and could even have gone backwards). De Minaur , Ruud, Rublev, Hurkacz, Cilic, Norrie, Berrettini, Carreno Busta. Their games are already maxed out. But I like the up and comers. Tiafoe, Fritz, Alcaraz, Rune. Alcaraz is really a rough diamond. His game is so raw, and when he smoothes it out and gets rid of the rough edges he will be phenomenal. He is #1 and he has enormous scope for improvement.There is so much more to come from them. And I gotta include Tsitsipas in this group. He is bigger and stronger, serving really well, backhand is better, net-play is developing, and moving very well for a big guy. Always had a couple of emotional issues, where he could lose his concentration and focus, but you can see the effort he has put in. Tsitsipas can cause an upset. It was strange yesterday to see Djokovic 5-1 in the 1st set and then barley get over the line. He is vulnerable, and the crowd will be more for Tsitsipas than him. I definitely think that at worst Tsitsipas wins a set. For me a small bet on Tsitsipas to win at 38 to 10 ... can't get too involved, have a mini tennis tournament tomorrow myself.

I don't think Rybakina moves well, but with both of them the game quality is dictated by the serve. It's such a different game to that of the average woman player, who battles to hold serve. Not a blowout either way, but Sabalenka has not lost a match all year, and has not dropped a set this tournament. She also owns a 3-0 record against Rybakina.

Djoko has swept all before him. Only set lost was against a qualifier in round 2. Closest opponent he has played (in style to Paul), would be Gregor Dimitrov and he won 7-6 6-4 6-3. I expect a close 1st set, and then a similar score line here. I do like Sabalenka in the woman's. Only thing that was holding her back was the crazy double faults and she has worked hard and fixed it. She has the potential to win 2 majors this year. WImbledon will suite her serve and the US open will be similar to the Aussie. For me she is a better athlete than Rybakina, and she will enjoy the pace on the ball. Her serve has the potential to be as dominant a weapon as Serena's was for all those years.

If Khachanov can win the 2nd set it is def game on. He's been playing very well, looks strong and fit. He was excellent v Tiafoe. Mentally looks motivated and in the zone. It's 3-4 khachonov and this game is critical.

Nobody gives Paul a chance against Djoko, but it's just that in Aus, it suites Djoko perfectly. Like Nadal at the French. For me Paul has more chance against Djoko than De Minaur and Rublev. He has some weapons. Def a better serve than both of them. Not looking to get involved here, maybe a v small bet inlay.

It's Djokovic's version of the Karate kid. Wax on (De Minaur), Wax off (Rublev) ...

I actually think Rublev would be great company and a very interesting drinking buddy. You can see he is a smart guy, and he's definitely gonna raise the level of conversation. It would always be an interesting night out!

I gotta write this because I don't like Djoko. For me Rublev is a better version of De Minaur. But quite a similar game style. But realistically none of these players (maybe Khachanov) can go toe-to-toe with Djoko from the baseline. They all try and take him on in a game style that is so suited for his style. Was hoping that Tiafoe (just dynamic and different) or Fritz (with the huge server) would get there because I think they have the ability and weapons to take him deep. The others, I don't give them much of a chance. You know exactly what's coming from Rublev. Same old game that probably fails. At some point he's gonna get so frustrated and go bananas. Not if, just when. If Djoko plays similar to how he played against de Minaur, then this could be a blow out. For me Djoko with too many guns, slowly constricts and then finishes Rublev off. I like the under 35.5 games here, in what I think is a straight sets 6-4 6-3 6-2/3 stroll for Djoko.

Would have been better if you forgot to bet it. For me Aussie open has been a bad betting experience. Feel kind of cursed, starting in the 1st round with Berrettini, who missed an egg on match point, going on to Kokkinakis with 2 match points, Wawrinka blowing it against Molcan, onto Tiafoe (6-1 up in the 4th set tiebreak), Fritz losing to Popyrin, Hurkacz being 5-5 15-40 up in the 5th and losing to Korda, Alexandrova playing beyond awful, De Minaur reeling off 10 of 12 games just as I cashed out. and the cherry on the top , Pegula, who just played terrible tennis. She got annoyed and gave up which is really really poor. There were so few underdog betting opportunities for my software, and a sample size of 9 matches is useless. Could win 7 and think you have won the lottery, or lose 7 and feel that it does not work. Sometimes just easier to make a strategic withdrawal (called a retreat) , sleep in late and just observe the freak results show from afar. I'll be happy when the Aussie open is done. Absolutely no doubt in my mind, that lower quality events, have far bigger scope, and way more opportunities for betting on underdogs. Nobody really cares when they come to play a 125K event. It is just better than the practice courts, and have players ranked between 50 and 140 opens up all kinds of possibilities.

I swear I had a 2 pound bet on Rune to win, onto Paul and de Minaur to beat Djoko. Doomed him, but he had so many chances it was insane. To lose your serve to love serving at 6-5 final set is a terrible effort. To blow the tiw breaker from a dominant position also a shocker (thanks Tiafoe 6-1 up and he blew that breaker and the match as well). Boy, did Djokovic dismantle De Minaur. Absolutely smashed him. That pointless running after every ball, with no real plan, and such a limited game, totally shown up. Is his coach Darren Cahill ... who also could not get a tune out of Simona Halep? These people keep showing up with the same (limited) weapons expecting things to change. Change the plan. Honestly, it's moronic. For me the only two players that have the power to ward off the curse of 'neilovan' are Pegula and Pliskova. Both have been unbelievable, dispatching opponents with relentless ease. Pegula looks like she finally believes she belongs. I think if you had to meet her, she would be quite down to earth. She has a maturity and understanding of her own situation and game ATM. I think she sends Azarenka on her way in straights. She has demolished her opponent in 6 out of 8 sets played, winning all in straight sets. Pliskova looks absolutely fit, lean and mean and is playing super tennis. Doesn't matter what your age is. That feeling of being super fit is amazing for the mind and body. I think she destroys Linette (who really moves badly to the backhand side, and was a bundle of nerves against Alexandrova. ). Open up the court to the forehand, and then take advantage of the backhand. I think you see that pattern all match. Under 20 games here. Just too much power hitting from Pliskova. Similar to Pegula dominating her opponents in 5/8 sets and not dropping a set so far. For me those two will be in the final. Ostapenko does not convince me at all. Has had a very easy passage through, with no top quality opponents (Yastremska, Bondar, Baindl, Gauff (who was playing poorly in my opinion ... she can't win anything until she sorts out her forehand. At the elite level her forehand is as obvious a bad shot as Berettinis backhand) . Ostapenko went through a stage where she lost a lot of sets quite badly, and I think a repeat is on the cards here. Rybakina has a crazy weapon in the woman's game that so few players have. Her serve is a dominant 1-2 setup weapon and if it works (no reason why it should not) its a done deal. Once she is winning that serve easily, she can go to town on the return games. Then the game flows and a demolition happens. For me the only tricky match is Vekic and Sabalenka. Will Sabalenka's serve disintegrate when the pressure is on? I think she has been working hard on it. That weird open racquet in the middle of the motion (behind the back) is gone. To make a slight change like that requires excellent coaches, and a mountain of practice. Serve 500 serves every day for a month, and see how that shot improves (why don't woman pros's do that?) Practice and muscle memory makes the serve so much better and far more repeatable. Sabalenka's serve holds up here and she overpowers Vekic. from the Guardian...https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/jan/23/aryna-sabalenka-serves-up-a-storm-at-australian-open-after-biomechanics-help “I was, in that moment, open for whatever. I was just like, ‘Please, someone help me to fix this f--k--g serve,’” said Sabalenka." I got two phone calls today. One from Pliskova and another from Pegula. Both said they will pay me not to bet on them, and pleaded for me to remove any money I had staked on them. Both said they are avid Punters lounge visitors. They both exhibited a lot of desperation and were really pleading with me to bet $2 on Sabalenka ... 😁🙄😑

For what my opinion is worth. At the moment if Djoko played Djoko I would still get it wrong. De Minaur will have the crowd well behind him, and it is something that Djoko really does not like. It does not appeal to his narcissistic side. I also think that De Minaur has the ability to outlast Djoko here. He doesn't have the weapons or the game, but a slightly injured Djoko may just be vulnerable, to a really long, gruelling match. So I imagine endless rallies with these slow dunlop balls, De Minaur chasing everything down, and hopefully Djoko being beaten. In the ongoing match between Rublev and Rune, I think Rune is gonna win. Too similar in style and he is just better than Rublev, who can get so mad at himself.

Popyrin stuck me out as well. Should have told everyone I put a fiver on alexandrova when she was 3-2 up 1st set. Kiss of death for her. Then proceeded to play like a beginner and make 14 unforced errors in about 40 points. Terrible rubbish considering the average rally is only about 6 shots. Losses 8 in a row and disintegrates. Her opponent was just slightly less bad , but finds a lucky net cord at 5-4 15 all . Par for the course at the moment. Just ask me who I bet on and then plonk it on the opponent.... you cannot lose

Amazing, gets to 6-1 up in the tie-breaker and stops playing, losing 6 points in a row. Deserves his loss.

De Minaur is a joke. His game is so 1 dimensional. He was 17 to 100 before the match started. Does the same thing over and over and over again. Never comes to net, never hits a drop shot. I don't know why he has coaches because they change and improve nothing. I think he will just get over the line (now there is the kiss of death), but it's a boring match Pile it on Mannarino 😬 . If I am betting de Minaur, Mannarino cannot LOSE! De Minaur must have a space for rent sign where his brain should be. I should be so lucky. I Just cashed out my bet at a tiny loss. Not prepared to risk anything on this clown. I thought de Minaur would have improved, and with the Aussie crowd would have to much for Mannarino, De Minaur just a marathon running journeyman, plodder. Now that I cashed out, this clown will prob run off 13 games in a row. Not quite but 4 of the next 5. I have some form going ... Fruhvirtova, Linda1.14 Birrell, Kimberly v Fruhvirtova, Linda Winner | Live In Play Aus Open Singles (W) Ended | Total Sets: 0 - 2 | Game Score: 2 - 6 2023-01-19 07:00 Garcia, Caroline1.42 Fernandez, Leylah Annie v Garcia, Caroline Winner Aus Open Singles (W) Ended | Total Sets: 0 - 2 | Game Score: 5 - 7 2023-01-19 08:05 De Minaur, Alex1.17 Mannarino, Adrian v de Minaur, Alex Winner Aus Open Singles (M) 3rd set | Total Sets: 1 - 1 | Game Score: 3 - 2 2023-01-19 10:00