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About neilovan

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    Seasoned Campaigner !
  • Birthday 10/07/63

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    Jo'burg (Sunshine Capital of the World)
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    Sports betting, Machine Learning & Data Science , Making Money

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  1. Saints v Brighton Having watched a couple of Saints game I am not impressed. You just cannot keep selling players, rotating managers and stay healthy. I don't rate Hughes at all. Bang average manager, who has achieved nothing in this role! Just lucky for them there are teams in worse situations. Newcastle, Huddersfield, Cardiff, Burnley look the other 4, in a relegation triple decker sandwich. Unless you are a Brighton or Saints fan, this game could be a hard watch. I think Mark Hughes is amazingly lucky to walk into the Saints job. Realistically he did nothing at Stoke, and left them in a relegation bound position. How does he walk into another massive paying job, with such limited credentials. Are there only 25 people that can manage a premier league club in Europe ? The manager merry-go-round is pathetically laughable On the flip side there is Chris Hughton, who has done really well as Brighton manager. He has them playing a solid , structured style. They will be hard to breakdown. Most people are expecting a low scoring affair here, with the game going under 2.5 goals. The under 2.5 goals is priced at 1.61 and the over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.25 . Is the under a reasonable bet? I am not sure. Brighton have not scored many on the road in recent games, but they have played tough opponents. For me it is a bet to leave alone. I think that there is value in the away team, especially at odds of 4.2 and the Brighton double chance at 1.8 . I don't see an average to poor Saints side romping away here, and Brighton are more than capable of scoring a goal and hanging on. Soccer is just a strange, low scoring game. Brighton to win at 4.2
  2. Nothing like another meaningless 93rd minute goal to screw another winning bet up. Was quite surprised by 5 minutes of injury time here.
  3. Spurs v LIverpool The weekend's Premier league fixtures kick off early with this game. Comparing the teams now, to how they were last season. Liverpool are significantly better. van Dijk has cemented the defense and Alisson is a huge upgrade at goalkeeper. Spurs, while retaining most of their top players have not advanced. The two matches against Man United and Watford are case in point. Great, terrific win against Man United, but then a really poor display in the next game. For me it is a combination of a little staleness in the team, and an over reliance on goals from Harry Kane. A really healthy strong team, balances the scoring. The midfielders score a few, and a big strapping defender helps out with a header or 5. But if you have one main source for goals, it becomes easier for opponents to stop that 1 source. Odds for the home win (2.78) and away win (2.6) indicate two pretty evenly balanced/matched teams. The bookmakers have the both teams to score at 1.53 which translates into 65%. If Liverpool nullify Kane, and Alisson has a half decent day, I think they will keep a clean sheet. So the NO to BTTS looks good at odds of 2.5 (or a 40% chance). I think all three results are possible here, but am leaning towards a Liverpool win (0-1 or 0-2) or the Liverpool win to NIL (priced at 5). I don't see a flood of goals in this game, which could be dominated by two very good defensive teams. The under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.3 also look good. Wolves v Burnley I thought Wolves rode their luck against Man CIty, but they also played well. Plenty of pace and industry. I think they will see this as 3 points that should be theirs. Burnley are just struggling. You can't just hit the switch and play better. They have no momentum going into this game. I can't see beyond the Wolves win here. Burnley showing relegation form at the moment.
  4. US Open 2018

    bbc quote ... The world number 30 was trailing 6-4 3-0 and threatening to quit the second-round match when Mohamed Lahyani climbed down from his chair, saying he wanted to "help" him. Kyrgios went on to win 4-6 7-6 (8-6) 6-3 6-0 and plays Roger Federer next. Herbert said Lahyani should be punished as his actions were not "appropriate". "I think this was not his job. I don't think he's a coach, he's an umpire, and he should stay on his chair for that," the Frenchman said. "If he makes a mistake, I think he should be also punished. He doesn't make that many mistakes, and I think he's a really good umpire." That whole episode is just F----g ridiculous. He got out of his chair and encouraged Kyrigos to start playing. That's not his damn job. His job is to sit in his chair and control the activity, not to actively participate. The ump should be banned from the tour. When I saw that Aussie clown tanking ...was basically out, done and buried, pulling his groin, looking like he was 3 s_ts behind, I loaded up on Herbert. Kyrigos was done and dusted. Fkg ump intervention revives him and cost me over 200 pounds. Just outrageous ! If the guy is not trying to bad. Same as that French Clown Paire against Federer. Damn show binkies ! Then you look at Kevin Andersen, who has half the talent, but 5 times the desire, drive, commitment and belief.
  5. US Open 2018

    Hello, I am in Jo'burg. Just curious who you are using as your bookmaker. I'm kind of screwed with who are average at best. For me there is no +5.5 handicap, only a +4.5 Thanks,
  6. US Open 2018

    The Berankis part is off to a good start but Kukushkin is blowing Rubin away.
  7. US Open 2018

    I have been messing around trying to take in-play bets in tennis matches. Two problems I see with this approach. 1) The bookmakers are giving stinking prices. 2) They are front running the bets. A big problem is lag. If you are watching satellite TV, you are at least 8 seconds behind a fast stream like bet365, and probably 12 seconds behind someone actually at the game, who has an incredible advantage. So for me in-pay is just a BS activity. Onto the tennis. Boiling day in NY so 1st set winners will have a huge advantage. Nobody should be playing in that temp. It's 33 degrees Celsius and 60% humidity, which is hot, so people not used to it will fold up.
  8. 4 loses out of 4 , maybe this needs some more work
  9. I think Arsenal destroy West Ham today. They have so many attacking options. Mkhitaryan, Aubameyang, Lacazette , Ozil. I really like Matteo Guendouzi. He could have a fantastic season. One hell of a start to your career facing Man CIty and Chelsea back-to-back, and I think he did really well. It will get easier for him, as he grows into his role there. Pelligrini is trying to play like he did when in charge of Man CIty. The problem is that the talent at his disposal is not near the same quality. In essence he is asking players to do what they cannot ! I think you see an open game here, in which Arsenal win quiet easily. Arsenal have won 7 of their last 9 at home (all over 2.5 goals, losing twice to Man CIty). I think you see similar in this game, and the odds of 1.85 for the Home win and over 2.5 are generous.
  10. I thought Huddersfield were reasonable in the first game of the season versus Chelsea. They played some decent soccer, just were not very clinical. I have not watched Cardiff this season. For teams like Cardiff and Huddersfield, Southampton etc to survive they have to win these home games. I think Huddersfield may get over the line here.
  11. I don't think you can judge Liverpool on a walkover West Ham game. It's at home, against an away team that came to play. Away games in the premier league are tough for all teams (even Man City). If you are not on your game, you are going to drop points. I think there is reasonable value on Palace at 6.5 to 1 for the win, and excellent value on the home double chance (2-1). This won't be a stroll for Liverpool.
  12. WOW , what a shower from United. Listening to Scholes and Neville take them to pieces. Jose gone by December. Gotta say I got three possible bets absolutely wrong in this one.
  13. I think you need it to absolutely lash down with rain. That always evens things up.
  14. Well I think you may be out of luck. I watched the Newcastle game and they were pretty unlucky. One crossbar, One post or they could have drawn easily with Spurs. That Kenedy looks like a real handful, and Matt Ritchie really put himself ABOUT in that game. Man he was pissed to substituted. Absolutely :()**&**##g steaming . The problem for Newcastle is that Benitez is such a good manager, and he likes life there. Ashley is coining it. Investing nothing, grabbing 52000 fans every week, and pulling in mucho Premier league TV $$$. WHy should he invest when he has a manager that can get 12th place. The Ashley Gravy train. Tooooo-Toooo - schhhhhhhzzzzzzzzz.. They are a deceptive opponent with an excellent manager.
  15. EVERTON v SAINTS Having watched most of the opening weekends games, two teams that will struggle are Southampton and Cardiff. Cardiff are just out of their league. All Kudos to Warnock, but they are going to get battered most match days. Southampton just look rubbish to me. I don't rate Mark Hughes and he will have them playing like Stoke pretty soon. What is the saying "for a man who's only tool is a hammer, everything looks like a nail" ! There is nothing going forward ... no pace, little skill, and absolutely no finesse. Is Danny Ings the answer? No way. If you had to combine the number of top players that left Saints in the last 5 seasons, you could field a pretty solid team. At some stage this selling your best assets will catch up, and the greedy owners will spend time in the Championship. I thought Richarlison had an amazing game for Everton. 2 goals on your debut is fantastico. I think he could be the buy of the season. That second goal was a gem, as he used the defender to obstruct the goalkeeper view. Clinical. Brilliant top goal of the week for me. Everton were very good against the middle/bottom teams at home last season. Played 13 games, WON 10, 2 DRAW, 1 LOSS. Pretty decent numbers. OK the style of player under Allardyce was not so great but those numbers are brilliant. To me the Everton package this year is just miles better. Where they have to improve is holding/beating the top teams at home (awful record last season). A few decent results will get the home fans up and pumped. The home win at odds of 1.95 is a gift from the bookmakers BRIGHTON v MAN UNITED I remain unconvinced that United will challenge this season. Last season the away record was decent, but also had some weird results. Brighton won this fixture last season, and Newcastle also beat Man U. At 1.72 for the away win, is it worth a bet? Hmmmm , not sure here. One thing I see is a lack of 1st half goals away from Man United. Just 1 goal scored in 9 away games. Pretty poor, overly defensive, trying not to lose, is not the way to set up. Three bets that I would be looking at here are the HT draw, NO to both teams to score, and HT/FT (Draw/Man United). Brighton with 6 HT draws in their last 9 at home (league), while United cannot get the ball in the net 1st half away. I do not feel comfortable in this game, and would be betting smaller, and looking at longer odds type bets. Two things turn me off the Over 2.5 goals here. One, the machine learning prediction for over 2.5 goals is a little low. Two, Man United seem to down tools when going a goal or two up. There is no intensity to press for the 3rd goal. They will put it in neutral and try to hold on ... A game to observe, and not get involved in. CRYSTAL PALACE v LIVERPOOL I thought Liverpool were excellent in their opener. Naby Keita had an outstanding game, and just slotted in so easily. Playing at Liverpool will be a perfect fit for him. On the flip side here, Pellegrini had his team set up just waaaay to open. You just cannot play in this manner, against top teams away, in the Premier League. What's amazing to me is how well Liverpool have coped without Phillipe Coutinho. It has been a case of Phillipe WHO? They have not missed him at all. and he filled the coffers for them to make 2 or 3 great signings. SO first game away for them, and typical Liverpool banana skin game. These are the teams that Liverpool have messed up against in the past. Palace have some bite and teeth. Zaha will be dangerous but I think the signing of Max Meyer could be a master stroke. 22, pure quality, coming in from Schalke. I'm looking forward to watching this game as it could be one of the best of the weekend. Can Liverpool avoid the slip up, or will Palace shock them? I think the odds for the home win of 6-1 are decent.