neilovan

Why can't one of my horses quit when they are injured? MUchova losing 6-1 in the final set to someone she should beat 9 times out of 10. Cannot catch a break with this stuff. You tell me Ruud, Muchova, Korda and Sakkari are going to lose in the 1st round ... I say Impossible, how much you wanna bet 🤐

Quite a strange day yesterday to see Korda and Sakkari get beaten. Sakkari with her second 1st round loss at a major in a row. Looked to be in control and then fell apart against Kostyk. I do see a day of upsets today. I think (as Smiles noted) that Svitolina beats Mertens. Bencic beats Collins who has hardly played any on grass. For me Karatsev is on the comeback. Probably overplayed and burnt himself out for 18 months when he finally cracked the top 70 or so. Guy looked mentally frazzled and was beating himself. He looks far calmer on the court now, and I think he posses a real threat to Rublev. Not going crazy here, just a small bet on Karatsev win. You look at the order of play, and the fare on Centre and #1 court is rubbish. 5 lousy matches. As a spectacle only the Murray v Tsitsipas match deserves it's place. Would you want a ticket for court #1? Not me. For me match of the day is Francisco Cerundolo versus Jiri Lehecka. Both excellent, and it is one that can go either way. Nothing to choose between them, and probably the over games is the way to go. I think Tsitsipas beats Andy Murray. Thiem was a much tougher game, but he showed some fortitude in getting through that. Age catches up with everyone and a young, good opponent will hurt Andy. I also don't think Murray can pressurize the Tsitsipas backhand as much as a taller player. I think Fernandez has a good chance against Garcia. She has to keep her focus and composure against a not brilliant opponent. Garcia seems to win but never convincingly. AS a 'bet the house banker' I would go for Tiafoe v Stricker. Stricker came back from 1-4 down 5th set yesterday to win 7-5 against Popyrin, and he will be feeling it. My low priced fav 5 legged bet would be Tiafoe, Muchova, Rybakina, Dimitrov and Ruud which gives about 14 to 10. Muchova just too athletic, Rybakina too good behind her serve, Dimitrov excellent on grass and Ruud very solid.

As a coach you can't just turn a single handed backhand into a two handed one. It will take months , possibly years. It is to do with the reach and the twist of the core muscles. It is like trying to teach a world class swimmer who does breaststroke to now swim olympic standard butterfly.

It seems like Kvitova pulled out of the tournament?

I think it is quite a tricky matchup. Do they care? I don't think this is important to them. Was just a back up plan if last week failed. Is one player exhausted from last week and the travel/acclimation? Maybe, perhaps both slightly tired (more mental than physical). Do they want a break before WImbledon? YES! They would definitely prefer a rest up, move down to London, and and practise/rest up for the week. I may take a small bet early, and then lump it on after the 1st set. I cannot see this match going long or 3 sets. Whoever wins the 1st set wins. Thinking about it, for me the pre match bet is the under 22.5 games at 8 to 10, and a lump on the 1st set winner.

It is quite a rare thing to see exceptional woman's tennis matches. Most of the stuff is pretty average. Double faults, unforced errors and a one dimensional game. I have seen 3 excellent matches in the last couple of months. Jabuer v Danilovic (French Open), Jabuer v Muchova (French Open), and the final in Berlin between Kvitova and Vekic. Vekic actually had a big chance second set. Served for it at 5-4 and then lost it in a breaker. But the tennis in Berlin was top class. Very few unforced errors and exceptional hitting of the ball. Kvitova in this form will take some beating. Her serve is dynamite, and she has tremendous power off both sides. It is the best I have seen her play in years. For me she destroys Ostapenko today. Then you compare this match to yesterday's encounter between Pliskova and Mertens. The gap in quality is miles. Pliskova and Mertens played a match of 'worse' and 'worser'. Mertens had 10 double faults in the 1st set, and neither of them could hit the ball. Pegula has played one match (doubles) on grass and may be a little undercooked for Zheng. I am also not convinced regarding Boulter v Martic. Boulter won a tournament but you look at the quality of the field and it was weak. (Burrage 131, Watson 195, Dart 143, Snigur 157, Appelton 230+ so very low ranking opponents).

Sasnovich got a hiding. Didn't see that coming.

Looking at Mallorca qualifying. Would be very surprised if Rinderknech and Harris don't win their matches. Class of the qualifying field. For me a small double here. Rinderknech just lost a little confidence on the clay, but behind a strong serve he is very tough on grass. Harris is a solid player, prob top 30/40 when his injury settles down and the rankings work themselves out. My two big bets of the day are Alcaraz over De Minaur and Sasnovich over Masarova. Sasnovich on a strong run, and De Minaur will really battle with Alcaraz who is a better athlete (which will freak him out), and a better player. Two Upsets: I just don't rate Petra Kvitova anymore. On grass, her poor movement is covered over by a strong tricky serve. But if Vekic makes returns and gets in play, Kvitova will struggle. At 1.44 she is just way to short, against an opponent in the form of her life. Not going crazy but a small starting bet on Vekic here. If Vekic starts to put pressure on the Kvitova serve early (ie. 2 of 1st 3 Kvitova serve games going to deuce), I'll make a much larger one. Just want to wait and see in-play. Elize Cornet plays Martina Trevisioan at Bad Homburg, and I think Trevisioan has a real shot here. Not sure why Cornet is so short.

I don't, but it is a bizarre streak.

Rune looked slightly injured. Watson winning and her opponent quits. That is 9 of those retired when winning to 0 retired when losing bets.

Alcaraz is really unbelievable. His adjustment to grass has been swift. Gregor is a very tough opponent and he beat him easily in the end. He was also excellent against Lehecka. What I noticed is how clinical he was on the big points. This kid is beyond special, a once in a generational talent. He is so ridiculously athletic. AS well as Korda is playing, and he was not great against Norrie, I just think he gets wiped out here. The development of Alcaraz is just so rapid and exceptional. Korda didn't play very well against Norrie (served badly and was not clinical), and i he repeats that performance he gets crunched here. I cannot see beyond Rune in his match against De Minuar. ALex played Murray and Schwartzman, both who are not world class opponents at the moment. Easy wins. Against Mannarino he battled and I think he comes up short here. Rune is very deceptive. It looks like he drifts in matches, but again, very clinical when it counts. I also think that Vekic beats Sakkari in Berlin. Sakkari playing much better but Vekic right on top of her game. Definitely an outside pick for Wimbledon. Eastbourne qualifying I like three bets. Watson to beat Putintseva. Watson very solid on grass and her run continues. Frech to beat Martincova (I think this works out but will be close) Bogdan to beat Udvardy (I like Anna Bogdan. Very solid player, with no QUIT/checkout button.

What happened with Sinner, retiring? For me that is 8 winning bets blown up by a retiree. Have not had one where my losing selection quit.

The first tournaments have lots of surprises. If you go to tennis-data.co.uk and download the years excel for 2022 (ATP and WTA). Then you can check the fav... B365W < B365L will give you all the favorite winners, the opposite >= will give you the fav losses. Then look at the win rate. It is pretty clear that the 1st tournaments are difficult. By Wimbledon, the win rate has gone back up by +10% as the good players get used to it.

As for Queens today, what a lineup. 4 terrific contests. My #1 pick is Korda to win, but Mannarino is going to give De Minaur a very tough time. He is very deceptive and skillful. He is stringing at very low tensions, and this gives the ball oomph. Look's like he has not hit it, but the strings and racquet are doing the work. Also, the left hander throws up a difficult serving conundrum, to the add court. They swing the ball out wide and then hit the return down the other line. Can de Minaur get the tactics right here. I think Mannarino edges this one. The Queens surface definitely better than Halle. Halle it looks under prepared and slightly bumpy, with wear. That will make the life of the big server easier, as they get more free points. This givess Bublik a much better chance against Sinner and Griekspoor against Rublev. I think Bublik can take a set and Rublev will lose to Griekspoor.

I did watch a lot of her games, starting with the French against Bencic. She is kind of a slow starter, but is very good at figuring out opponents, and getting better tactically as the match progresses. There is a weakness in the serve, and surrendering a lot of serve breaks. She seems very strong mentally ... there is no 'Quit' attitude, but Vekic on grass has an excellent combination of serving power, groundstrokes and movement.