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About neilovan

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  • Birthday 10/07/63

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    Jo'burg (Sunshine Capital of the World)
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    Sports betting, Machine Learning & Data Science , Making Money

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  1. Premier League Predictions > Dec 4th & 5th

    I think Jose is very close. The fact is the football is crap, and they are way off Champions League contention. If he goes I think Zidane is the man for the rest of the season. If United did'nt take a chance on Giggs, to me it's unlikely they will take a shot on Howe. Personally, I would like to see Potch in charge. He has a quiet dignity, and calmness, with a touch of class. At some stage Arsenal are going to start a game quickly, and if they do it tonight, they could blow United away. Gonna be very interesting.
  2. Premier League Predictions > Dec 4th & 5th

    Man United are just in a mess. In a way they are experiencing what happened to Liverpool after their dominance in the mid-late 80's . A treadmill of players and managers and nothing really clicking. Mourinho's United is out of sync completely, but blame lies everywhere.... Scouting and player recruitment looks really poor. Mkhitaryan, Lukaku, Bailly, Lindelof, Fred, Matic, Sanchez have been added (by Mourinho) , but non of them are/did light it up. United's best players have been Rashford, de Gea, Lingaard and Shaw. But Mourinho's touch line petulance does not help anyone. When Rashford missed a good chance recently, Mourinho turned his back to the player. Yet when Rashford setup Herrera with an excellent ball (equalizer against Saints, he shows no reaction). That behavior is just rubbish. It helps nobody and is just thoughtless an quite stupid ! These guys are just kids. They don't need 'tough love' all the time. What is the expression ... "To a man who's only tool is a hammer, everything looks like a nail" . The friction with Pogba will come to the boil pretty soon. Mourinho called him a 'virus', which seems pretty accurate. His performance against Southampton was a disgrace. No effort, work rate, desire. NOTHING. Surely 350k a week could be better spent elsewhere. He could learn a thing from past United greats (Bryan Robson, Roy Keane, Giggs, Scholes). Robson did'nt play in a great United team, but he gave 110% every game. A United and England legend. I remember another United player from way back. He was raw, with pace, incredible talent , but super frustrating in his first couple of seasons. When he needed to take on the defender, he would cross the ball. When he needed to cross the ball he would take on the defender. He made the wrong decision at least 60% of the time for 2 seasons (drove van Nistelrooy crazy). Then the learning process clicked ... Who was it ... pretty average guy called Christiano Ronaldo. Pogba will be on his way, but maybe the kid is just overrated. Most reasonable players would shine playing for Juventus in a midfield of Pirlo and Vidal, against average to weak opposition. Pirlo to provide the finesse and Vidal to run 12 kms a game. You cannot build a team around this guy, so maybe let him go and ride on Ronaldo's back at Juve. WHat did Fergie see in his character that he did not like ? Arsenal will be looking for another top performance. Emry has turned them around so quickly, he has done a great job. Players look fit, happy, and they look to be rejuvenated. Losing Sanchez and Ozil has seemed to help them considerably. My only question is 'will the win over Spurs leave them a little flat' ? If Arsenal show up with the same drive and focus, I think they win here easily. My prediction is the over 2.5 goals and Arsenal win. This United team is trying to play the Mourinho way, but they have no spirit, no desire to do so, no leaders, no plan, and no defense. Apart from that, they look good. New tattoos and haircuts every week.
  3. Premier League Predictions > Dec 4th & 5th

    What exactly is the side note? Crystal Palace are not exactly world beaters ... At odds of 2.8 for the straight home win, I'll take it all day. The 2-0 is just suggesting a scoreline, but Brighton will win here.
  4. Premier League Predictions > Dec 4th & 5th

    Brighton v Crystal Palace I don't think you can read anything into the Palace win over Burnley. I watched the Burnley v Newcastle game on Monday night, and then the Palace v Burnley game. In both they were well off the pace. They have gone away from what they did last year and look awful ... relegation material. Brighton are solid, especially at home. If the stop Zaha, which I expect them to do, I think they win this 2-0.
  5. Saints v Brighton Having watched a couple of Saints game I am not impressed. You just cannot keep selling players, rotating managers and stay healthy. I don't rate Hughes at all. Bang average manager, who has achieved nothing in this role! Just lucky for them there are teams in worse situations. Newcastle, Huddersfield, Cardiff, Burnley look the other 4, in a relegation triple decker sandwich. Unless you are a Brighton or Saints fan, this game could be a hard watch. I think Mark Hughes is amazingly lucky to walk into the Saints job. Realistically he did nothing at Stoke, and left them in a relegation bound position. How does he walk into another massive paying job, with such limited credentials. Are there only 25 people that can manage a premier league club in Europe ? The manager merry-go-round is pathetically laughable On the flip side there is Chris Hughton, who has done really well as Brighton manager. He has them playing a solid , structured style. They will be hard to breakdown. Most people are expecting a low scoring affair here, with the game going under 2.5 goals. The under 2.5 goals is priced at 1.61 and the over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.25 . Is the under a reasonable bet? I am not sure. Brighton have not scored many on the road in recent games, but they have played tough opponents. For me it is a bet to leave alone. I think that there is value in the away team, especially at odds of 4.2 and the Brighton double chance at 1.8 . I don't see an average to poor Saints side romping away here, and Brighton are more than capable of scoring a goal and hanging on. Soccer is just a strange, low scoring game. Brighton to win at 4.2
  6. Nothing like another meaningless 93rd minute goal to screw another winning bet up. Was quite surprised by 5 minutes of injury time here.
  7. Spurs v LIverpool The weekend's Premier league fixtures kick off early with this game. Comparing the teams now, to how they were last season. Liverpool are significantly better. van Dijk has cemented the defense and Alisson is a huge upgrade at goalkeeper. Spurs, while retaining most of their top players have not advanced. The two matches against Man United and Watford are case in point. Great, terrific win against Man United, but then a really poor display in the next game. For me it is a combination of a little staleness in the team, and an over reliance on goals from Harry Kane. A really healthy strong team, balances the scoring. The midfielders score a few, and a big strapping defender helps out with a header or 5. But if you have one main source for goals, it becomes easier for opponents to stop that 1 source. Odds for the home win (2.78) and away win (2.6) indicate two pretty evenly balanced/matched teams. The bookmakers have the both teams to score at 1.53 which translates into 65%. If Liverpool nullify Kane, and Alisson has a half decent day, I think they will keep a clean sheet. So the NO to BTTS looks good at odds of 2.5 (or a 40% chance). I think all three results are possible here, but am leaning towards a Liverpool win (0-1 or 0-2) or the Liverpool win to NIL (priced at 5). I don't see a flood of goals in this game, which could be dominated by two very good defensive teams. The under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.3 also look good. Wolves v Burnley I thought Wolves rode their luck against Man CIty, but they also played well. Plenty of pace and industry. I think they will see this as 3 points that should be theirs. Burnley are just struggling. You can't just hit the switch and play better. They have no momentum going into this game. I can't see beyond the Wolves win here. Burnley showing relegation form at the moment.
  8. US Open 2018

    bbc quote ... The world number 30 was trailing 6-4 3-0 and threatening to quit the second-round match when Mohamed Lahyani climbed down from his chair, saying he wanted to "help" him. Kyrgios went on to win 4-6 7-6 (8-6) 6-3 6-0 and plays Roger Federer next. Herbert said Lahyani should be punished as his actions were not "appropriate". "I think this was not his job. I don't think he's a coach, he's an umpire, and he should stay on his chair for that," the Frenchman said. "If he makes a mistake, I think he should be also punished. He doesn't make that many mistakes, and I think he's a really good umpire." That whole episode is just F----g ridiculous. He got out of his chair and encouraged Kyrigos to start playing. That's not his damn job. His job is to sit in his chair and control the activity, not to actively participate. The ump should be banned from the tour. When I saw that Aussie clown tanking ...was basically out, done and buried, pulling his groin, looking like he was 3 s_ts behind, I loaded up on Herbert. Kyrigos was done and dusted. Fkg ump intervention revives him and cost me over 200 pounds. Just outrageous ! If the guy is not trying to bad. Same as that French Clown Paire against Federer. Damn show binkies ! Then you look at Kevin Andersen, who has half the talent, but 5 times the desire, drive, commitment and belief.
  9. US Open 2018

    Hello, I am in Jo'burg. Just curious who you are using as your bookmaker. I'm kind of screwed with who are average at best. For me there is no +5.5 handicap, only a +4.5 Thanks,
  10. US Open 2018

    The Berankis part is off to a good start but Kukushkin is blowing Rubin away.
  11. US Open 2018

    I have been messing around trying to take in-play bets in tennis matches. Two problems I see with this approach. 1) The bookmakers are giving stinking prices. 2) They are front running the bets. A big problem is lag. If you are watching satellite TV, you are at least 8 seconds behind a fast stream like bet365, and probably 12 seconds behind someone actually at the game, who has an incredible advantage. So for me in-pay is just a BS activity. Onto the tennis. Boiling day in NY so 1st set winners will have a huge advantage. Nobody should be playing in that temp. It's 33 degrees Celsius and 60% humidity, which is hot, so people not used to it will fold up.
  12. 4 loses out of 4 , maybe this needs some more work
  13. I think Arsenal destroy West Ham today. They have so many attacking options. Mkhitaryan, Aubameyang, Lacazette , Ozil. I really like Matteo Guendouzi. He could have a fantastic season. One hell of a start to your career facing Man CIty and Chelsea back-to-back, and I think he did really well. It will get easier for him, as he grows into his role there. Pelligrini is trying to play like he did when in charge of Man CIty. The problem is that the talent at his disposal is not near the same quality. In essence he is asking players to do what they cannot ! I think you see an open game here, in which Arsenal win quiet easily. Arsenal have won 7 of their last 9 at home (all over 2.5 goals, losing twice to Man CIty). I think you see similar in this game, and the odds of 1.85 for the Home win and over 2.5 are generous.
  14. I thought Huddersfield were reasonable in the first game of the season versus Chelsea. They played some decent soccer, just were not very clinical. I have not watched Cardiff this season. For teams like Cardiff and Huddersfield, Southampton etc to survive they have to win these home games. I think Huddersfield may get over the line here.
  15. I don't think you can judge Liverpool on a walkover West Ham game. It's at home, against an away team that came to play. Away games in the premier league are tough for all teams (even Man City). If you are not on your game, you are going to drop points. I think there is reasonable value on Palace at 6.5 to 1 for the win, and excellent value on the home double chance (2-1). This won't be a stroll for Liverpool.