neilovan

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About neilovan

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  • Birthday 10/07/63

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    Sports betting, website development, Water color painting, Playing golf and tennis

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  1. Liverpool have to score a goal, and the quicker they do it, the more they can control the game. SO early on in the game, I would expect them to be very aggressive. If they get that early goal, they can sit back knowing City need 5. If Liverpool concede an early goal, they can adjust their tactics again. I think the highest scoring half (1st) is the way to go here, at odds close to 2 to 1.
  2. Man United v Sevilla Quite a few things play into Man United's hands here. FIrst, the weather. It will come as a shock to a Southern European team, while 9C is like mid Summer in Manchester. The second is just how bad Sevilla are on the road. They have been pumped a few times in LaLiga this season. The third factor is that Man United need 2 goals. They can't sit on a 1 goal lead, and it will force them to be more positive. I think United play far better when they are proactive, rather than reactive, and the situation dictates the former option tonight. It does not make sense for United to start slowly here. Their best scenario would be get an early goal and then control the game. In getting this goal, United will have to risk a little. In my opinion, this should be done earlier, rather than later. If you get into trouble late in the game you are stuffed. Earlier gives you 65 - 75 minutes to get out of it ! Mourinho would like a comfortable 2-0 win here. Nothing too fancy ... control the game and cruise to the win. I think the over 2.5 goals is not a great option. Mourinho has shown time and time again (especially in big games Liverpool and Arsenal), that he will make the defensive substitution. I think the Man United win and under 3.5 goals at odds of 2.2 is a very good deal.
  3. I just think this week is really difficult. I just don't see clear favorites or great prices. Normally I do one of two things. I abstain from betting, or I go smaller bets with longer odds. Two bets I do kind of like (for small stakes) ... Everton v Brighton ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Everton have been slumping under BIG Sam, but their home form remains decent. They have lost 2 in 10 games (against Man United and Arsenal), but have won 6 of their last 9 at home in the league. Brighton show no away form at all. They have not won in 8 away games, picking up 3 points from a possible 24. They have also scored just 2 away goals in 8 games, so I don't really see a high scoring game here. You could see a tight 1st half, with Everton just edging it in the 2nd half. Everton have drawn 7 of their last 10 1st half home games, while Brighton have lost 7 of their last 8 2nd half away games. HT Draw FT Everton - Odds 5.5 Arsenal v Watford -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Arsenal beat a very poor AC Milan in the Europa league Thursday. But this win just masks their defensive weaknesses. Czech looks well past his prime, and Arsenal just look open and vulnerable to the set piece. Watford are sure to get at them and rattle their cage, far more than AC Milan did midweek. I would expect plenty of goals in the game. Arsenal have had three really big games in a row, and could be a little flat here. Watford will be pumped up. Arsenal look decent going forward, but the defensive structures are suspect. I think Callum Chambers is a really poor defender, possibly one of the worst in the league. Looks like a rabbit in the headlights. Is the shock result on the cards here? I think Watford could definitely win here, but will probably need at least a couple of goals to get over the line. At some stage Arsenal are going to do a Man United and put all their eggs in one Europa League basket. Away WIN & over 2.5 goals - Odds 9
  4. Premier League Predictions > Mar 1st - 5th

    I watched the Arsenal game against Man City Thursday, and Arsenal were not that bad. You really need to put it into context ... City are fantastic ! The multiple ways they attack will make most opponents look bad. Down the left, or right, or through the middle. They have quality all over the park, with unreal pace and skill. The also have a manager who knows what he is doing ! Arsenal have a good squad. A new manager, with a couple of key investments in the next window and they could be good. Obviously Wenger has to go ! There are plenty of decent managers available. Simeone, Tuchel, Naggelsman. In my opinion, Simeone would be brilliant for Arsenal because he would bring the defensive organisation of Athletico to Arsenal. That's what they need. Henry is too green for such a big job, especially with a crucial transfer window coming. It is not like Zidane at Real Madrid, who inherited a world class squad assembled by Mourinho. The problem for them is that they have no confidence. Two 3-0 beatings by City in a week will also not help. 10 points out of the CL spots cannot be caught up. City, United and Liverpool are over the horizon, and both of Chelsea and Spurs will not slip up. They are going to switch 100% focus to winning the Europa league. With Athletic Madrid they the top two seeds. I think they cruise past AC Milan, especially in the home leg. Europa league round of 16 Lazio v Dynamo Kiev RB Leipzig v Zenit St Petersburg Atletico Madrid v Lokomotiv Moscow CSKA Moscow v Lyon Marseille v Athletic Bilbao Sporting Lisbon v Viktoria Plzen Borussia Dortmund v Red Bull Salzburg AC Milan v Arsenal I think Arsenal will be flat against Brighton. A little tired after two games in a short period. Crappy weather will not brighten the mood either. Then add a terrible away record to the equation, and couple that with a highly motivated home side. Both the Brighton win and the home Double chance look really good here.
  5. SA v India T20 Series

    Just a bizarre game where Klassen wins it with a crazy knock.
  6. SA v India T20 Series

    Report post Posted 21 February 2018 12:52pm (edited) 2nd ODI at Centurian between SA and India Weather in JHB is overcast and possibly looking like rain later this afternoon or early evening.Game in in Centurian which is about 40km's away. Realistically, you can expect another pile of crap from the Proteas. Any time you see a team with Berhardien and Duminy in it, you should bet against them. Both are useless, and too old (34 and 33). As a SA cricket fan, I know they will deliver almost nothing. The two catches Berhardien dropped in the 1st T20 were pathetic. If someone dropped those in a club game they would embarrassed. Berhardien has this crazy cross handed way of holding the bat, which forces everything to be cross batted and land up around cow-corner (mid-wicket). It's impossible to drive the ball properly, and his technique non existent. Quote from JP Duminy "You are going to go through periods in your career, where you go through slumps..." Hilarious, because his slump has been going for at least 4 years. In Australia he would have been put out to pasture long long ago. Idiotic to drop Aiden Markram and make JP Duminy captain. Who makes these decisions? The PROTEAS record in recent T20 and ODI series India ODI (recent) won 1 lost 5 ICC Champions L India, L Pakistan beat Sri Lanka England T20 lost 2 of 3 England ODI lost 2 of 3 SO in the short format of the game they have lost 12 of 15 (against decent opposition - excluding Zimbabwe and Bangeldesh). The problem is that India are only about 1.56 to win which is probably not worth it. The in game bet may be better, because SA have no finishers. If SA bat 1st and get off to a decent start they will slump in the middle/end overs. If they are chasing and are in with 1/2 a chance, only Morris has the ability to get them over the line. In a close game, SA batting second, Morris out, back India. If I could get 7 to 10 on India for the win I would take it, and I think the India highest 1st 6 overs is also worth taking.
  7. England v SA T20 series

    2nd ODI at Centurian between SA and India Weather in JHB is overcast and possibly looking like rain later this afternoon or early evening.Game in in Centurian which is about 40km's away. Realistically, you can expect another pile of crap from the Proteas. Any time you see a team with Berhardien and Duminy in it, you should bet against them. Both are useless, and too old (34 and 33). As a SA cricket fan, I know they will deliver almost nothing. The two catches Berhardien dropped in the 1st T20 were pathetic. If someone dropped those in a club game they would embarrassed. Berhardien has this crazy cross handed way of holding the bat, which forces everything to be cross batted and land up around cow-corner (mid-wicket). It's impossible to drive the ball properly, and his technique non existent. Quote from JP Duminy "You are going to go through periods in your career, where you go through slumps..." Hilarious, because his slump has been going for at least 4 years. In Australia he would have been put out to pasture long long ago. Idiotic to drop Aiden Markram and make JP Duminy captain. Who makes these decisions? The PROTEAS record in recent T20 and ODI series India ODI (recent) won 1 lost 5 ICC Champions L India, L Pakistan beat Sri Lanka England T20 lost 2 of 3 England ODI lost 2 of 3 SO in the short format of the game they have lost 12 of 15 (against decent opposition - excluding Zimbabwe and Bangeldesh). The problem is that India are only about 1.56 to win which is probably not worth it. The in game bet may be better, because SA have no finishers. If SA bat 1st and get off to a decent start they will slump in the middle/end overs. If they are chasing and are in with 1/2 a chance, only Morris has the ability to get them over the line. In a close game, SA batting second, Morris out, back India. If I could get 7 to 10 on India for the win I would take it, and I think the India highest 1st 6 overs is also worth taking.
  8. SA v India ODI series

    Bizarre, India win the toss and bat first
  9. SA v India ODI series

    More of the same rubbish from SA expected in the 4th ODI at the wanderers today. The weather is pretty good. Clear skies but with a little haze, could make for a thunderstorm or two later on. Definitely an advantage to chase a total here and get duckworth lewis on your side. Also, team batting 1st could have an interrupted innings due to rain (prob rain at about 5.30 local time) If SA drop David Miller and bring Behardien in instead, I would be all over India. Probably Berhardien comes in for Zondo (who batted to slowly in the last game). SA are making ridiculous selection mistakes. Duminy and Berhardien are not the answers. We know what they can do ( very little), and will never win SA a match. Rather blood some other players, and get their International futures going. Stop flogging a dead horse. SA problems remain. They are unable to play wrist spin. However, they get their match winner (AB de Villiers back). Me, I wait for the toss, as the team that bats second here gains an advantage. India win the toss and bowl first is a green light !
  10. SA v India ODI series

    Below is my post for the 2nd ODI game. As a South African I have never seen a worse Proteas ODI team assembled than the one to play against India on Sunday. No AB de Villiers, No Faf du Plessis, and the rest of the batting lineup struggling. Berhardien a joke, Duminy useless, Markram finding his feet, and de Kock and Miller out of form. 3 left hand batsmen all extremely vulnerable to spin (Miller, Duminy and de Kock). Add to this a seam bowling attack that has no variation. Morkel bowls to short, Ngidi is just starting out, and Phehlukwayo is just not good enough. Add to this that SA may drop de Kock for this game and give Heinrich Klaasen a chance. If I see that I'll borrow money to bet on India in this game. Our match winner David Miller has really gone off the boil. Maybe some psychological reaction to blinding a person (a 6 in the IPL hit a man in the eye) a couple of years back. No form or belief at the moment ... SA deserve their low ODI world ranking because they are crap. No form at all, having a terrible last Summer in the UK (failing in the ICC Champions trophy, and being KO'ed by England in the ODI series). I don't like to bet against SA teams but the writing is on the wall here. India won the 1st ODI at a canter, realistically by 8 wickets with 6 overs to spare. In a boxing match they would have thrown in the white towel and surrendered. SA were s__t awful! At 8 to 10 INDIA WIN is a gift price. 2nd ODI was a one sided whitewash. Came home at 1pm and game was finished. SA beyond poor. -------------------------3rd ODI Prediction------------------------------------------------------------------- The crazy part is that SA are getting weaker (if possible) while India are gaining strength. Every week the touring team spends in SA makes them better. They get used to the conditions and settle in. SA without de Kock, de Villiers and du Plessis have almost no chance in the 3rd ODI. Who is going to get the runs in this team ? The batting lineup is just rubbish ! I see Glen Maxwell left out in Aussie, he would stroll into this lineup. Amla is a little out of form, the two newbies Markram and Klaasen will struggle (against top quality) . Duminy and Miller are really vulnerable to spin, and you can't teach them how to play it in a week. Not possible. Both are totally lacking confidence (while Duminy is technically poor). The last time he had any "WOW" in a game was 5 years ago. Absolutely ridiculous selection of a player well past his prime. INDIA are firing on all cylinders. There is a buzz, and big competition for places in the team. Think about it, your chance of playing for India is probably 120 million to 1 against. Also, when you get a chance to beat someone in professional sports, you must cash in and crush them. Grab the momentum and don't let up. For me, Dhoni is an unbelievable player. I can't count how many times I have seen him win a game for India. The greatest closer the short forms of the game has seen. And the crazy part is that he is not even needed here ! INDIA TO WIN at odds nearly 6 to 10 is still a very decent price.
  11. Hey neilovan..Thanks for the great tip on India in the cricket...Men and boys it seems...Do you have any thoughts on the 3rd 1 dayer mate ?...Obviously the bookies have shortened the m/l odds but i was wondering if you think they might still be a good bet to win and to win handsomely again ?..Many thanks mate.

    1. Show previous comments  6 more
    2. bookiebasher

      bookiebasher

      Well i took your advice and waited for the game to start...India seemed to be batting ok so i did them m/l in a double with Spurs that paid 5/2(not to big a bet as before,obviously)..Spurs won and India were on top when the rains came as you predicted so i decided to cashout for a 2/1 winner..Luckily for me as we all know what happened...I believe that with out the rain the Indians would,ve gone on to win the game ?...Anyways,so to game 5...All things considered what would your call be on this game and is there danger of showers again mate ?

    3. bookiebasher

      bookiebasher

      Damn sorry dude ive just seen your posts in the cricket section..I shouldve looked there before i guess..Well thanks for replying mate..You couldve just said check the cricket section lol..I think im gonna go with the Indians again..Its  3 - 1 now hey and they,ll want to win the series right.

    4. bookiebasher

      bookiebasher

      Well they did make me sweat a lil bit there but once they got the No.1 batsman out it was happy days 

       

  12. Premier League Predictions > Feb 3rd - 5th

    LEICESTER v SWANSEA Sat 2018-02-03 How disruptive is Riyad Mahrez! Every transfer window he is captain CHAOS! He won't play this weekend, and Leicester probably will get very little out of him for the rest of the season. It has to affect team spirit, and moral. It's a really bad situation to have a festering player around the squad. Negative vibes all around ! Leicester have only been doing so well, because Puel had Vardy and Mahrez buzzing. The air has gone out of the balloon here ... psssssssssssstttttttt ! Swansea will come into this game absolutely flying. Two unreal wins, at home against Liverpool and Arsenal. Come on, NOBODY gave them 6 points from those two games ! Amazing game plans, excellent execution. They beat Arsenal easily. So Carlos Carvalhal has performed wonders. It's sardines eating sharks, and this weekend the sardines could continue to bite back. The bet I like here is the away double chance. Swansea to win or draw is very decently priced at 2.1 Away Double Chance - Odds 2.1 (2 Units) Just a quick off topic post, because I did'nt know where to post it in the cricket forum. As a South African I have never seen a worse Proteas ODI team assembled than the one to play against India on Sunday. No AB de Villiers, No Faf du Plessis, and the rest of the batting lineup struggling. Berhardien a joke, Duminy useless, Markram finding his feet, and de Kock and Miller out of form. 3 left hand batsmen all extremely vulnerable to spin (Miller, Duminy and de Kock). Add to this a seam bowling attack that has no variation. Morkel bowls to short, Ngidi is just starting out, and Phehlukwayo is just not good enough. Add to this that SA may drop de Kock for this game and give Heinrich Klaasen a chance. If I see that I'll borrow money to bet on India in this game. Our match winner David Miller has really gone off the boil. Maybe some psychological reaction to blinding a person (a 6 in the IPL) a couple of years back. No form or belief at the moment ... SA deserve their low ODI world ranking because they are crap. No form at all, having a terrible last Summer in the UK (failing in the ICC Champions trophy, and being KO'ed by England in the ODI series). I don't like to bet against SA teams but the writing is on the wall here. India won the 1st ODI at a canter, realistically by 8 wickets with 6 overs to spare. In a boxing match they would have thrown in the white towel and surrendered. SA were s__t awful! At 8 to 10 INDIA WIN is a gift price.
  13. Swansea v Liverpool Mon 2018-01-21 Liverpool look terrific on the road. They have won 5 of their last 6 first half away games. Scoring goals for fun, with 7 of 10 first half games having more than 1.5 goals. 9 of 10 away games have finished over 2.5 goals. Can Swansea stop them? No chance here... so what bets look good? The Liverpool away win HT/FT looks reasonable at odds of 1.83. But it means thaey have to win the 1st half. I think this is a distinct possibility, given that Swnasea have scored 1 1st half goal at home in 10 games. This is the worst record in the premier league, The NO to both teams to score is priced at 1.8 (very similar to Liverpool win HT/FT), but realistically it's very similar to the Liverpool win to NIL bet. If I was choosing either of these I would go Liverpool win to NIL (odds 2.1). For me the possibility that Liverpool concede a sloppy goal is real, and it turns me off these last 2 bets. I would rather back Liverpool's strength, which is attacking football and scoring goals. At anywhere above 1.75, I would take Liverpool to win here and over 2.5 goals. FOr me this is a safer bet, than enduring 1st half pressure in the HT/FT win.
  14. To me , the fixtures this week (apart from the Liverpool v Man City game), are a hand grenade. Three big teams at ridiculously low odds. Chelsea, Tottenham and Man United. The biggest odds on offer (1.32) for the home win, are lousy. The implied probability (for the win) is around 75% for each of these games. Leicester are capable of surprising Chelsea, while Stoke and Everton will play an 11 man defense and hope for a break away or set piece goal. Not a place for the smart money ! The other games are a lottery, which is suggested by the price. Can you really pick a winner (with confidence) between Crystal Palace and Burnley, Huddersfield and West Ham, WBA and Brighton or Watford v Southampton. My feeling is NO. These teams are so inconsistent, and totally unpredictable. Is there any team closer to Watford in blowing games, and throwing wins away? Crystal Palace are even money to beat Burnley . Really ! What nonsense. Burnley have lost 2 away league games this season (Leicester and Man City). I would'nt touch Palace with a 10 ft pole here. Just a week for leaving the cash in the wallet ! If I had to bet on something, I would take Southampton to beat Watford away for 2 main reasons. 1) Saints away record has been proo, but no team in the EPL has had a tougher away schedule last 5 games. 2) Watford are just a crazy team. They are liable to blow them selves up at any moment, have a guy sent off, or just collapse. No team in the EPL has squandered a lead more than them ...
  15. Burnley at 6.5 to 1 to beat a Spurs team that has lost 4 of their last 5 away games ? Seems ridiculous. Why should Spurs win here ? Their form away says they will battle. It is not like Burnley just roll over and give up every game. FOr me the Home double chance looks excellent at odds of 2.35