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About neilovan

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  • Birthday 10/07/1963

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  1. I am quite wary of the 1st few weeks of the season. You know the least about the teams, and have very little current information. So I think you need a slightly different betting strategy. Either take longer odds and bet less, or just leave the marginal bets alone. I think a couple of very tricky games are Wolves v Man United, and Chelsea v Leicester. CHELSEA v LEICESTER A few things go against Chelsea at the start of the season. It's pre-season, and players are not fully into the flow of 100% fitness. The game against Leicester will be their 3rd in 7 days, and in my opinion, they will be a little jaded after 2 travel away days, and an extra time game midweek. Obviously 2 defeats will not help the mentality. Leicester have this unusual style, of not really fussing too much regarding possession. They play quite an aggressive game, which makes the game slightly disjointed. I really feel they can pull off a shock here and either win, or cover the double chance here. WOLVES v MAN UNITED Even as a Man U fan, I thought they were slightly lucky in the Chelsea game. It was a perfect storm for them. Get the first goal and then play on the counter as the opponent chases the game. What would have happened if Chelsea had scored first ? Can United break down a team that sits in ? I'm not sure they have the quality in midfield to do this. Wolves are a slight enigma. They did amazingly well against the top 6 teams last season. SO somehow their style of play is that of a top 6 team. They just drop stupid points against the lower teams in the league. I was really surprised by how well Bissako and Maguire slotted in. Bissako had a great game. He looks born to play right back. His control is excellent, and he has quick feet. For me that was a brilliant perfomance against Chelsea. Maguire also had a top game. I can almost hear the chant 'the red block head' already. In 1 game he looks to already have cemented the United back 4. My only concern is for Luke Shaw, who looks positionally lost, and unconfident. I think United keep another clean sheet and win either 0-1 or 0-2 (odds of 8-1 or 11-1). Maybe dutch a bet over both scorelines, just for 1 unit.
  2. I don't think you can read too much into pre season in terms of results. While they are important they are really not the number 1 goal of preseason. Get players up to speed, increase the fitness and intensity, while having no injuries. I don't think Liverpool are going to be as good this season as last. My feeling is that Man CIty cruise easily to a 3rd Premier league title in a row. I say this because that high tempo, Klopp pressing game takes it's toll. Players simply can't do it year after year. LIVERPOOL v NORWICH Very difficult to look past a Liverpool win here, but I don't think they will have it all their own way. Norwich played some excellent football and were really the surprise package of the Championship. Even though their opponents were not Liverpool quality, they still scored a lot of goals. I don't think Liverpool keep a clean sheet here, so for me a decent looking bet would be both teams to score at odds over 2.15 MAN UNITED v CHELSEA Everybody thinks that the Maguire transfer is a ridiculous fee, but they are not seeing the elephant in the room. Forget comparing Maguire and van Djik. van Djik came into a Liverpool team and slotted in to a pretty decent unit. They shipped ridiculous goals in the previous season, but he really helped rectify that problem.They needed a defensive lynchpin and van Djik provided it. United need far more than a defensive rock. They need a team leader. Pogba is simply not that man, and there are no obvious candidates. You need a solid player that will deliver at least a 7/10 performance week after week. I think Maguire is that guy, and from all accounts seems to be a rock solid individual. Future captain of the side by Jan next year. Both sides (United and Chelsea) are playing an inexperienced managerial game. Neither has really shown they can do the job but... Solskjaer has done pretty well in the transfer market. Three signings, that when compared to the garbage/damage done by Mourinho and van Gaal, look excellent. My feeling is that Chelsea will really miss Hazard this season. He won them games last season, and had moments of brilliance that they can't replace. Like Real losing Ronaldo or Barcelona Messi. I think they don't make CL Europe and finish 5th ahead of Arsenal. I don't think you see a goal bonanza in this game but I think United cover a 1 goal margin. as a side note I think Dalot will have an amazing season. Wow 20 years old and the world at his feet. Premier league young player of the season for me. Looking at CHelsea's first three games (United away, Leicester at home, Norwich away), Lampard could be feeling the heat early.
  3. West Indies had the game in the bag against Australia. Then blew it with ridiculous cricket. They were well ahead of the run rate, with wickets in hand. Bangladesh, batting coach will have them play smart cricket. They have to see off Mitchell Starc and possibilities with the other bowlers will open up. The two cheaters, Smith and Warner are key. If both of them fail, Bangladesh in with a good shout.
  4. Nothing really seems to be working for SA. De Kock played across the line getting bowled eg stump. Du Plessis played the wrong line to a yorker. No batsman took NZ on, except van der Dussen, who had limited support. The start was steady, but too cautious, and some over hitting/wild swiping at the end was comical. Biggest disappointment for me at this WC from SA is Aiden Markram. Just played very averagely and got out at the worst possible time in every game. Ball definitely moved around in the air and off the pitch. Is this Kagiso Rabada's day ? He needs to grab 3 quick wickets in a ferocious spell. Game not over, but 1st 10 overs probably critical.
  5. South Africa cannot continue to play this badly. NZ is a team that we have dominated between WC years. Pitch looks like a beauty, and I feel that batting first (especially 1.5 hours later) means the ball will do less. SA need Amla to be solid here, hold up one end and rotate the strike at about a run a ball. He does that, I think SA post well over 300, and can bowl wicket to wicket, and win.
  6. Tiger Woods best chance at a major was at Augusta. No rough to speak of and no punishment for bad driving. Woods missed plenty of fairways there and was never punished. On 13 he drove it in the creek left and got a miraculous break. No such thing at a USA open. You miss a fairway and you will struggle to make par. So straight driving and fairways hit are key. If you can add length to straight driving and fairways hit, you are in the pound seats, as there are 4 par 5's. So a guy like Molinari may hit a lot of fairways, but will do better on a par 70 course with 2 par 5's (Woods is 64th on PGA tour in driving accuracy). So for me that definitely rules Woods out. He just will not hit enough fairways. Woods will be lucky to make the cut. Last time at Pebble he got 2 incredible breaks with the weather, when the rest of the top contenders had two horrendous weather days. PGA tour stats 1 1 Jim Furyk 53 74.81 499 667 2 2 Chez Reavie 67 74.55 624 837 3 3 Ryan Armour 66 73.01 671 919 4 4 Ryan Moore 54 72.68 548 754 5 5 Justin Harding 31 72.32 243 336 6 7 Henrik Stenson 46 71.97 380 528 Second column is fairways hit (PGA tour). So for me I'm putting Furyk and Stenson in the mix. It seems like Rory has found his way again (he took out 3 Iron and put another wedge in the bag in Canada). SO I'll go with those 3.
  7. A strange game. SA pegged them back pretty well and 310 looked possible. No demons in that track at all. But it looks like they have team selection wrong. Amla has been an incredible servant and ambassador for SA cricket but his powers are on the wane. Duminy is a bits and pieces player, who has not put in a match winning performance for 5 years. Gotta be playing Miller and Morris instead. Miller (to his credit) has never been the same since the incident in the IPL (he hit a six in a game that hit a spectator in the eye, and blinded the person) . It really messed him up with subconscious guilt. Both are potential match winners. Miller also had the additional problem of always batting in a sticky situation. Either have a blast at the end of an innings, or dig the team out early. Very infrequently is the table set for him.
  8. Hmm, not sure the talent is in short supply as Amla, Markram, Morris, Miller, van de Dussen are all capable. You just don't walk into a world cup side if you can't play a bit. They will probably bat around Amla or Markram, so I would expect one of those 2 to go quite deep into the innings. Toss seems a big one to win, as the ball could do plenty early. I think the highest 15 England is a good bet, but I don't fancy du Plessis as top scorer. One of the top 3 (de Kock, Markram or Amla will get there). The bowling attack of Ngidi, Rabada, probably Chris Morris and Andile Phehlukwayo, and a very tricky Tahir will cause plenty of problems. If SA win the toss I would back them for the win here.
  9. World Cup is on us again. As a Saffer disappointment is just a game away. One of the first times SA comes into a world cup, under the radar. I'm actually quite happy AB de Villiers is not playing, as it has created a void, that players have to step up and fill. I'm really looking forward to seeing how Aiden Markram goes in the tournament. He is young, but supa talented, with a great eye.. My feeling is that he will break a lot of records, and will captain SA for years to come in multiple formats of the game. Balance, power, mentally strong, with that extra 1/15th of second of time. He captained the SA under 19's that won their world cup a few years ago. Aged 22, the world is at his feet ... now step up and deliver on your talent and capability. This kid is going to open a lotta eyes here ... world cup top run getter perhaps ? The beauty of this world cup is that all teams play 9 group games. So it is a truer test because you all face each other. Every individual player has a possible 9 chances to shine, so individual bets (top run getter, top wicket taker etc) make more sense here. My feeling is it is better to go for top run getter, rather than a bowler and Markram is my pick. Hopefully a perfect sunny day on Thurs...
  10. Look, Liverpool shot themselves in the foot last week (Messi aimed the gun). But, an early 'Pool goal will get the crowed fired up, and the passion boiling. AT that point, anything can happen. If a lousy Man United team can go and get a result against PSG, then Liverpool could certainly do it here. If there is one guy I can't stand in football, it is Louis Suarez. As a grown adult, he has bitten 2 opponents, then diminished his time at LIverpool, saying they were garbage when he joined. I went to the 2010 World cup quarter final between Uruguay and Ghana at Soccer CIty in Soweto where he hand balled a ball on the line, which Uruguay ultimately won. A nasty human, who has found incredible success. Now he does'nt want to celebrate at Anfield ! Hopefully Liverpool give him no cause too ...
  11. Man CIty v Leicester A perfect match up for Man CIty. Leicester have been BTTS in 7 straight away league games. SO they get the ball in the net. City probably need 2 goals 2 win here. They should do it, in a match that is perfect for their style of play. My feeling is a high scoring home win, but would still go over 3.5 goals at about odds of 1.90.
  12. Wow what was I thinking. Young, and Jones in the starting lineup. No intensity, no plan, no clue, no work rate, no coaching, no tactics, no manager. Damn we needed Pochettino, and we got Solksjaer, who just looks clueless. This lot looks exactly the same as last years version, and the year before, and before etc etc. Just an inept, limp performance from a terrible team. Dead cat bounce when Solksjaer came in ... can they still get Poch ?
  13. Huddersfield v Man United As a Man U fan I don't care if they even lose this game. But they must set up to go and score 6. 2 Huge wins in the last 2 games could recover the goal difference they need to beat Chelsea on goal difference. SO I would like to see a 6-2, 7-1, 5-2 etc type of game. Go for it, and just hammer away. Positive goal difference is what counts here. I expect a United win by at least 3 goals. Go on Solksjaer, play a 343 and go ultra aggressive ! I don't think Chelsea beat Watford today. CHelsea are looking to win the Europa league... maybe looking to far forward, and take their eye off the ball. Also, some European transfers look so obvious to me. Buy Koulibaly. Need a monster Luka Jovic. Want another defender, buy de Ligt, Bring Taunzebe back FFS. Obvious stuff. Find a s__t hot winger who will work hard, and run at opposing defenses (Bye Bye Martial). ie The type of player Real Madrid found in Vinicius Junior (that kid is off the planet super talented). Stop buying journey men. If United don't qualify for the Champions league, then lets hit the reset button. Move the deadwood off and play a team of youngsters, with a couple of new 'rock' signings.. Sure they will make mistakes, but they will also develop. I've seen the Martial, Valencia, Young, Matic, Sanchez, Darmian, Rojo, SMalling, Jones, Mata, Herrera average/crap and they can all be moved on.
  14. Can change that 'could' to a "will" be without Odoi who has a ruptured achilles. What a horrible injury.