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neilovan

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About neilovan

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  • Birthday 10/07/1963

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    Sports betting, Machine Learning & Data Science , Making Money

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  1. Tiger Woods best chance at a major was at Augusta. No rough to speak of and no punishment for bad driving. Woods missed plenty of fairways there and was never punished. On 13 he drove it in the creek left and got a miraculous break. No such thing at a USA open. You miss a fairway and you will struggle to make par. So straight driving and fairways hit are key. If you can add length to straight driving and fairways hit, you are in the pound seats, as there are 4 par 5's. So a guy like Molinari may hit a lot of fairways, but will do better on a par 70 course with 2 par 5's (Woods is 64th on PGA tour in driving accuracy). So for me that definitely rules Woods out. He just will not hit enough fairways. Woods will be lucky to make the cut. Last time at Pebble he got 2 incredible breaks with the weather, when the rest of the top contenders had two horrendous weather days. PGA tour stats 1 1 Jim Furyk 53 74.81 499 667 2 2 Chez Reavie 67 74.55 624 837 3 3 Ryan Armour 66 73.01 671 919 4 4 Ryan Moore 54 72.68 548 754 5 5 Justin Harding 31 72.32 243 336 6 7 Henrik Stenson 46 71.97 380 528 Second column is fairways hit (PGA tour). So for me I'm putting Furyk and Stenson in the mix. It seems like Rory has found his way again (he took out 3 Iron and put another wedge in the bag in Canada). SO I'll go with those 3.
  2. A strange game. SA pegged them back pretty well and 310 looked possible. No demons in that track at all. But it looks like they have team selection wrong. Amla has been an incredible servant and ambassador for SA cricket but his powers are on the wane. Duminy is a bits and pieces player, who has not put in a match winning performance for 5 years. Gotta be playing Miller and Morris instead. Miller (to his credit) has never been the same since the incident in the IPL (he hit a six in a game that hit a spectator in the eye, and blinded the person) . It really messed him up with subconscious guilt. Both are potential match winners. Miller also had the additional problem of always batting in a sticky situation. Either have a blast at the end of an innings, or dig the team out early. Very infrequently is the table set for him.
  3. Hmm, not sure the talent is in short supply as Amla, Markram, Morris, Miller, van de Dussen are all capable. You just don't walk into a world cup side if you can't play a bit. They will probably bat around Amla or Markram, so I would expect one of those 2 to go quite deep into the innings. Toss seems a big one to win, as the ball could do plenty early. I think the highest 15 England is a good bet, but I don't fancy du Plessis as top scorer. One of the top 3 (de Kock, Markram or Amla will get there). The bowling attack of Ngidi, Rabada, probably Chris Morris and Andile Phehlukwayo, and a very tricky Tahir will cause plenty of problems. If SA win the toss I would back them for the win here.
  4. World Cup is on us again. As a Saffer disappointment is just a game away. One of the first times SA comes into a world cup, under the radar. I'm actually quite happy AB de Villiers is not playing, as it has created a void, that players have to step up and fill. I'm really looking forward to seeing how Aiden Markram goes in the tournament. He is young, but supa talented, with a great eye.. My feeling is that he will break a lot of records, and will captain SA for years to come in multiple formats of the game. Balance, power, mentally strong, with that extra 1/15th of second of time. He captained the SA under 19's that won their world cup a few years ago. Aged 22, the world is at his feet ... now step up and deliver on your talent and capability. This kid is going to open a lotta eyes here ... world cup top run getter perhaps ? The beauty of this world cup is that all teams play 9 group games. So it is a truer test because you all face each other. Every individual player has a possible 9 chances to shine, so individual bets (top run getter, top wicket taker etc) make more sense here. My feeling is it is better to go for top run getter, rather than a bowler and Markram is my pick. Hopefully a perfect sunny day on Thurs...
  5. Look, Liverpool shot themselves in the foot last week (Messi aimed the gun). But, an early 'Pool goal will get the crowed fired up, and the passion boiling. AT that point, anything can happen. If a lousy Man United team can go and get a result against PSG, then Liverpool could certainly do it here. If there is one guy I can't stand in football, it is Louis Suarez. As a grown adult, he has bitten 2 opponents, then diminished his time at LIverpool, saying they were garbage when he joined. I went to the 2010 World cup quarter final between Uruguay and Ghana at Soccer CIty in Soweto where he hand balled a ball on the line, which Uruguay ultimately won. A nasty human, who has found incredible success. Now he does'nt want to celebrate at Anfield ! Hopefully Liverpool give him no cause too ...
  6. Man CIty v Leicester A perfect match up for Man CIty. Leicester have been BTTS in 7 straight away league games. SO they get the ball in the net. City probably need 2 goals 2 win here. They should do it, in a match that is perfect for their style of play. My feeling is a high scoring home win, but would still go over 3.5 goals at about odds of 1.90.
  7. Wow what was I thinking. Young, and Jones in the starting lineup. No intensity, no plan, no clue, no work rate, no coaching, no tactics, no manager. Damn we needed Pochettino, and we got Solksjaer, who just looks clueless. This lot looks exactly the same as last years version, and the year before, and before etc etc. Just an inept, limp performance from a terrible team. Dead cat bounce when Solksjaer came in ... can they still get Poch ?
  8. Huddersfield v Man United As a Man U fan I don't care if they even lose this game. But they must set up to go and score 6. 2 Huge wins in the last 2 games could recover the goal difference they need to beat Chelsea on goal difference. SO I would like to see a 6-2, 7-1, 5-2 etc type of game. Go for it, and just hammer away. Positive goal difference is what counts here. I expect a United win by at least 3 goals. Go on Solksjaer, play a 343 and go ultra aggressive ! I don't think Chelsea beat Watford today. CHelsea are looking to win the Europa league... maybe looking to far forward, and take their eye off the ball. Also, some European transfers look so obvious to me. Buy Koulibaly. Need a monster midfielder...buy Luka Jovic. Want another defender, buy de Ligt, Bring Taunzebe back FFS. Obvious stuff. Find a s__t hot winger who will work hard, and run at opposing defenses (Bye Bye Martial). ie The type of player Real Madrid found in Vinicius Junior (that kid is off the planet super talented). Stop buying journey men. If United don't qualify for the Champions league, then lets hit the reset button. Move the deadwood off and play a team of youngsters, with a couple of new 'rock' signings.. Sure they will make mistakes, but they will also develop. I've seen the Martial, Valencia, Young, Matic, Sanchez, Darmian, Rojo, SMalling, Jones, Mata, Herrera average/crap and they can all be moved on.
  9. Can change that 'could' to a "will" be without Odoi who has a ruptured achilles. What a horrible injury.
  10. I like 3 games this weekend in the Premier. Man United v Chelsea. Man U were not terrible against Man CIty midweek. They were just beaten by a better team. Better everything. Tactics, players, plan. Everyone keeps saying Fred is not great, but .... Players are not rocket scientists. Most need direction, coaching and development. Any player in this unstructured team is going to look bog average to poor (Mkhitaryan, Kagawa). It seems to me that players don't really understand their roles in this team. If Fred's role is to work hard, and give the midfield some engine and legs, then he is performing his role. His distance stats were impressive, close to the energizer bunny (Bernardo SIlva). He is working twice as hard as Pogba. I have no problem there. I don't expect him to score wonder goals, or make incredible passes. That is really not his role. The only question against Chelsea is 'can they stop Hazard' . If they do they win. Assume Spurs are in (maybe as winners). I don't expect much from Arsenal in two away games, and this win opens the door for CL football next season, and makes United a more attractive transfer destination. Can McTominay stop hazard ... perhaps double team him. Man United to win here ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Spurs v West Ham West Ham appear to be on the beach already. Their away form is awful, scoring 2 goals in 8 away games (or close). Pretty unlikely they run rampant today against a Spurs team that has top defensive structure. Not mad about the Spurs win to Nil bet, but do like the NO to both teams to score. Spurs are in the top 4 , and they may just be looking ahead to the Champions League Semi's. I feel a low scoring 0-1 or 1-0 game is coming here, as motivation from both sides appears really low. 4 changes for Spurs. Expect a disjointed low scoring game. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Fulham v Cardiff I fancy Cardiff here. Super motivated, against an already relegated opponent. They come into the game with belief, and confidence. Also, I just feel that the saga with Emiliano Sala was just brutal for Cardiff. A terrible event, in what should have been an amazing step forward for him and the team. Neil Warnock may rub people up the wrong way, but I like his straight forward, emotional approach and energy. Away win.
  11. Both Bernardo and Leroy score , yet my bet loses. Real problem when a team is 2-0 up and stops playing.
  12. Man United v Man CIty The recent drop off in form for United must be a real worry. But realistically this team/squad is miles off the pace. A huge turnover of players under van Gaal and Mourinho, coupled with terrible transfer business has set them back. That the team slips back into this negative frame, with bad performance after bad performance is a sign of a weak mentality. It does not feel like a team of winners ... just comfortable millionaires. Solksjaer would not have been my first choice, but he is not to blame for the dross he inherited. But there is simply no way to hit the on switch here. Against every top opponent that United have played this season, they have been outplayed, and a few cases, very lucky. They don't work hard or press the opponent. When they have the ball they give it away on the first forward pass. Can Man U play a back 4 against City ? Perhaps, but they will be totally overrun in midfield. If they go to a back 3 they will be exposed in the areas between the wing and the sides of the penalty box. They just don't have the defensive players to play this way. I think Sane and Bernardo Silva have a field day here, and tear United to pieces down the flanks. Away win and over 2.5 goals would be my bet.
  13. Man CIty v Tottenham------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My feeling is that Spurs get well beaten in this game. A number of reasons. 1) City will be smarting from the CL defeat and out for revenge. 2) The City squad is much deeper than Spurs, and they can easily bring in fresh, high quality replacements 3) Pep will definitely not play such an immobile back line again. When attacked with pace they had no answers. Stones in for Kompany will make a huge difference.. 4) City will find a better way to mark Son out of the game. They will learn from previous mistakes and make adjustments. 5) A slight change of tactics. If the wing backs for City bomb forward, and the opponent plays narrow, they are nullified (City don't cross the ball in the air that much). But, having no wing backs at home opens up both flanks to be counter attacked (which is what Spurs did). City will not repeat the same mistakes. 6) Playing 2 games in such a short period, definitely favors the team playing twice at home. You sleep in your own bed (probably:), and are in your home environment. The other team travels 3 times. I like the home win and over 2.5 goals in this game. Cardiff v Liverpool----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Realistically a bonus game for Cardiff. Nobody expects anything from them today. 4 Fixtures left. Man United away, Liverpool at home, Fulham away and Crystal Palace at home. In 3 of these games they could be playing opponents who's season is over. The midweek win over Brighton, will make Liverpool's task very difficult here. The home team will definitely be up for the game. Realistically Cardiff have had a lot of dodgy decisions go against them. Maybe the wheel is turning. What goes around comes around, and they are due some decent fortune. Cardiff to pack the defense and snatch a goal, holding on for a 1-1 draw, ending Liverpool's title dream. Everton v Man United------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Are Man U going to make it into the CL spots this season? They won't take point/s off Man City, so at best they can get 76 points. Spurs should easily pass this, and Arsenal need just 10 points to equal it (beat them on goal difference). Arsenal have 2 home games against Brighton and Palace (6pts). I would expect 2 home wins there. Then they need a win and a draw in 3 away games (Leicester, Wolves and Burnley away). Very doable. I read somewhere that Man United players will lose up to 25% of their salaries if United don't qualify for Champions league. Maybe it will make it easier for United to shift them on. The way United are playing I would be surprised if they take all 3 points at Everton. The appointment of Solksjaer looks a premature disaster to me. It may have saved 50 million and a battle with Levy, but Potch should have been the man. Instead the have an unproven manager at the helm, who has zero track record. For players to demand Solksjaer be manager, is the equivalent of the inmates running the asylum. Ridiculous ! I watch United most games, and I don't see any plan, shape or game plan. It looks like a happier bunch of disorganized strangers (mercenaries), with no methodology or structure. Everton, coming off wins against Arsenal and Chelsea will be no pushovers here. Home double chance 1.67
  14. Monday night Chelsea v West Ham Chelsea are in a weird state under Sarri. Hazard is probably on his way to Real Madrid, so how motivated will he be in the run-in? Regardless of what happens at CHelsea he will play CL at Madrid. Maybe will get to carry Pogba as well Just do the basics and don't get injured before such a big, high profile move. Who for Chelsea is going to carry the extra load? Then add a West Ham team that has been poor on the road in recent weeks, into the mix. West Ham have lost 5 of their last 6 away, scoring just 1 goal. Is much going to change here ... probably not. I see a low scoring 1st half (0-0), and the home team just getting over the line here. The half time draw, CHelsea win is priced at 4 on bet365 and 4.61 on betfair.