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neilovan

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About neilovan

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  • Birthday 10/07/1963

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    Jo'burg (Sunshine Capital of the World)
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    Sports betting, Machine Learning & Data Science , Making Money

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  1. Monday night Chelsea v West Ham Chelsea are in a weird state under Sarri. Hazard is probably on his way to Real Madrid, so how motivated will he be in the run-in? Regardless of what happens at CHelsea he will play CL at Madrid. Maybe will get to carry Pogba as well Just do the basics and don't get injured before such a big, high profile move. Who for Chelsea is going to carry the extra load? Then add a West Ham team that has been poor on the road in recent weeks, into the mix. West Ham have lost 5 of their last 6 away, scoring just 1 goal. Is much going to change here ... probably not. I see a low scoring 1st half (0-0), and the home team just getting over the line here. The half time draw, CHelsea win is priced at 4 on bet365 and 4.61 on betfair.
  2. Tottenham v Crystal Palace If Tottenham have any chance of getting into the Champions League spots, they have to get their best players firing again. For me the player that makes the most difference to them is Son. He gives them a directness, that opens up defenses. I am not sure if the occasion may be a little to big for Spurs this evening. Maybe the opening of the new stadium overshadows the game itself. It's not like its a home game here, because nobody will feel 'at home' yet. It's all a little unfamiliar. Palace are a mixed bag team. Sometimes terrible, other times unexpected winners. Some interesting stats going into this game. Palace have not lost a 1st half away league game in their last 7 away, conceding just 1 goal. Spurs have scored just 2 1st half goals in their last 6 league games at home. So it kind of suggests that they may get off to a slow start here, possibly going a goal behind. I think Palace will rain on Spurs parade here. They are more than capable with solid away wins in recent games (Man CIty, Wolves, Burnley and Leicester). Not sure they will win (how can one be), but they could easily draw this game. Away double chance at odds of 2.75
  3. Man United v Watford Has the Ollie love-in ended ? United with 2 defeats in a week. Both pretty poor performances. Arsenal, was reasonably close ... Wolves played great and outplayed United completely. Lukaku missing an early sitter was a game changer. Hard to blame him, because he has been playing really well, and finishing excellently. For me the elephant in the room is Pogba. He does'nt seem to exert himself, slows the ball down, and looses possession often. In the big games this season he has been invisible. Certainly not able to dominate or exert big influence on the game (that you would expect from a 90 million pound player). United did'nt miss him at all against PSG in the Paris match. Sure he has huge talent, but he is not 'bringing it' every week. Looks like he is always holding a little effort back. I see United finding a way to win here, over a decent opponent. I do not see them keeping a clean sheet. Prediction : Home win & Over 2.5 goals (Odds 2.1) As a fan I would be quite happy to see the back of Pogba. Maybe he can hook up with Mourinho again somewhere.. Liverpool v Tottenham This is a very tricky game for Liverpool, and could decide their league title ambitions. Spurs are a good side, that has had a recent blip. However, they can win difficult games, and seem to play better against better opponents. For me their is no value on the home win, in a fixture where any result is possible. I do like the away win and over 2.5 goals at odds of 8.5 . Plenty of value here, far outweighing the implied odds of the bookmakers for the away win. My feeling is that Tottenham to win and over 2.5 should be nearer 4.5 than 8. Prediction : Away win & Over 2.5 goals (Odds 8.5)
  4. I definitely like the Man United draw no bet. A few things to like with United at the moment... Flexibility. Was super impressed with United changing the formation so early against PSG. Dalot has been super in his last 2 games. Changed the Southampton game as soon as he came on, and was brilliant against PSG. McTominay is a more than adequate 'fill-in' for Matic. Really important to have 2 players that can fill this role. Covers injury problems, suspensions as well as overplaying one player. For me, Matic needs some freshen up time.... looks a little jaded and overplayed this season. I see Coutinho wants to jump ship. If Liverpool win the title (which I doubt), they should give the credit to him, for forcing a 'dream' move through to Barcelona. That 130 million let them make substantial purchases. Maybe United can swap Sanchez and some cash for Coutinho ? Sanchez looks like Rooney in his last year. Legs are gone. I watched the Europa defeat by Arsenal on Thursday. They were rubbish. SImply unable to make the tactical adjustment and defend properly with 1 up front. Was a strange game. I still think they go through at the Emirates (need a 2-0 win). United are on such a surge. Beat PSG under Mourinho? Ridiculous ! Challenge for top 3 place under Mourinho? Please ! Now its a distinct possibility, and they will be hard to stop.
  5. Chelsea v Wolves Sun 10th 14:05 This is a very interesting match up. Chelsea seem to be coming around to Sarri ball. They are definitely playing better, and somehow seem more cohesive. They will be encouraged by Tottenham's failure at Southampton yesterday. Wolves have teeth, but are a little up-and-down. Beat Everton, Totteham and Newcastle away, and then blow games against Huddersfield, Fulham and Cardiff. Pretty inconsistent ! Realistically, they need 2 goals to win an away game, as they can't keep an away clean sheet. I just cannot see this happening against a Chelsea defense that has definitely got better in recent weeks. Chelsea have conceded just 3 goals in 9 home league games, so they look very solid in this department. This game has 2-0 written all over it ! Not crazy about the odds of 1.55 but my feeling is that Chelsea are in a decent space and on a good run. Prediction : Home Win
  6. As a Man United fan three games under Solsjaer have left me disappointed. The game against Spurs where United won 1-0. The 1st leg against PSG where United looked like crash dummies (rabbits in the headlights). The game against Liverpool, where United could not pass the ball forward 3 times. Who is the leader of this team ? There is no Roy Keane, no Robbo (Bryan Robson) , no Pogba (though his leadership qualities are questionable). After Mourinho and his dour everything, the next guy in was going to radiate. But I am not sure Solsjaer has the tactical acumen to take United to the next level. Sure they can play run and gun and beat the average Premier league teams like Southampton etc, but against quality, they have not been great. When you watch Spurs play at their best, they have an excellent blend of attacking variation. Sometimes down the flanks, sometimes quick to Alli and Kane, sometimes the hard working Song. But opposing teams don't know were the next punch is coming from, and that makes all attack more effective. The big problem for United is that this injury hit lineup is totally over matched here. Realistically United are the best of a 2nd tier group including Arsenal and Chelsea. United may go for it but I think Mbappe scores a brace tonight. Nothing I have seen equips United to deal with his raw pace and ability. To be honest, I would rather United get trounced tonight, than draw 2-2. More important game this weekend against Arsenal !
  7. Everton v Liverpool - Sun 3rd Everton under performing while Liverpool seem to be recovering from a slight stall... Everton will still be smarting from a last kick loss in the Anfield match, which torpedoed their season. They will be looking for respect and revenge. Everton remain incredibly inconsistent, and unbalanced. However, in Gylfi Sigurdsson they have a player who is performing really well. He is having a stellar season, having scored 11 Premier league gaoals so far. It is his best ever return. I am not convinced regarding Liverpool. They are slightly 1-dimensional in my view. They almost want to pass the ball into the net. Without a headed goal threat, teams can set up and defend in a compact manner. Playing Origi, may seem a risk, but he would give them the headed goal threat. The head-2-head suggests a close game here probably a draw. I just don't see Liverpool getting all 3 points here, against a fired up opponent. Prediction : Home Double Chance
  8. The premier league remains a betting minefield. Crazy, inconsistent results dominate the card every week. Almost pointless to be taking low priced bets where there is such a level of inconsistency. Tonight's games look horrible. Cardiff v Everton, looks like anything can happen there. Everton have not drawn an away league game in almost 2 months, losing 5 of their last 7 away. Remove the freak result (1-5) vrs Burnley and they don't look too clever. A game to avoid for me, but forcing a bet I would oppose Everton here. Leicester v Brighton, another 'any result possible game'. Both teams in a slump, showing no form. Hard to get 'up' for this game, and harder to commit money to a bet here. Newcastle v Burnley another tricky game. Newcastle running into some form, while Burnley (and Man United) are the only 2 undefeated teams in the league in the last 7 games. An early goal could open the game up. If I was trading, I would give it 25 minutes. Nil Nil at 25min I'm out, but an early goal could open it up. Wednesday I do like Saints to beat Fulham. Fulham just conceding too many soft goals. Everyone on the Solskjaer bandwagon at Man United, but I don't see it. Sure United are miles better than under Mourinho, but Mourinho lost the squad and failed badly. He set the bar so low. In the three big games United have played under Solskjaer, they have looked really poor. A red hot keeper got them the points at Spurs, but they were ripped to shreds in the 2nd half. PSG ran rings around them, and they were totally dominated by Liverpool. Did they have a shot in the game ? In all of these games United simply could not pass the ball forward. 2 or 3 passes and possession lost. Every time. They were just lucky that Liverpool are a little 1 dimensional at the moment. 'Pool don't cross the ball, and have no headed goal threat, so you can pack the middle of defense and make it difficult for them. But Solskjaer made a mistake by bringing Lingaard on. Should have brought Sanchez on instead, and saved a substitute. That was a pretty basic error. So Palace v Man United Wednesday is quite interesting. United will be pretty disjointed, losing Matic, Martial, Lingaard, Mata, Herrera. I see a low scoring game here, with a single goal winning it. Does Rashford sit out with a slight niggle ? It's a huge opportunity for Fred and Sanchez, and hopefully Daliot (instead of Young) to show what they can do. Sometime best just to watch and wait, perhaps a good in game opportunity presents itself.
  9. Leicester v Man United I think an early goal (less than 25 minutes) could open the floodgates here. United were a little sloppy against Burnley and dropped 2 points. Looked like they were not focused against a weaker opponent. To me they look like Liverpool last year. Decent going forward, but missing a top defender that will solidify the back 3 or 4. However, they do not have the the playing pattern structure of a top team. When they bomb forward, they are leaving gaps. Luke Shaw seems to over commit and it leaves huge space in which to be counter attacked. I don't see how they stop Leicester from scoring, and feel that over 2.5 goals is on the cards here.
  10. Fulham v Tottenham What a huge opportunity for Fulham today. If Spurs have one glaring weakness, it is the lack of depth in the squad. Today missing both Kane and Son, with no like for like replacements. For me Son is a bigger miss than Kane. He has been brilliant. The man has a huge engine (in a league of big engines), and can run really hard for an entire match. It is what a defender hates ... A guy that keeps upping the ante, increasing the pressure, and who eventually runs them into the ground. It has a duel effect in opening space up for Kane. WHo in the SPurs lineup can step up and fill the gap? Look out for a shock today. DOn't think there will be too many goals here, and Fulham may walk away with a shock win.
  11. Southampton v Everton If I had to choose 1 team this weekend to bet against, it would be Everton. They are so inconsistent, show poor away form, and have stagnated a little (in my opinion) under SIlva. Is Silva all that good? Hmmmm, jury is out. When looking at previous results I tend to ignore the anomalies. If you remove the 1-5 away win at Burnley, Everton don't look so clever, scoring just 4 goals in 7 away games. I really don't think they can win here, but the Saints will also struggle. However, I think the new manager makes the difference here. I do like the over 2.5 goals here for 2 reasons; 1) Two evenly matched teams that will both reckon they have a winning chance, will create an open game. 2) Saints are finding 1st half goals in recent home league games. Early goals open up games. I would be going over 2.5 goals here, but if I was backing a winner, I would be going Saints and over 2.5 (based on head to head Saints 4 wins in 5 in this fixture.) Saints HOME WIN & OVER 2.5 goals odds 4.25
  12. Wow, amazing. What a flat performance from Southampton. Going a goal up, but never really playing with any belief or intensity. How is it possible that this team can score 3 against Arsenal ? Maybe the small squad is just leggy and exhausted from so many games. Shane Long may run and run, but he is really an ineffective player. Nathan Redman not to good either ! Reinforces the lesson to stay away from mediocre inconsistent teams. Man I hate losing money
  13. Not sure if we are on the same page or not. I think Saints win here easily.
  14. West Ham v Saints I just cannot see past a Saints win here. Similar to Man United, the new manager has made a huge difference. Confidence is high, and it is translating into goals. You cannot underestimate how much good that win over Arsenal will do for Saints. Massive confidence builder. I would be looking at over goals here. My feeling is Saints will win it. What I do like is that West Ham concede so many 1st half away goals. None of their last 9 away games has been 0-0 by the end of the first half. Southampton win and over 2.5 goals is priced at 3.1 and I think it is worth a bet here. Anything over about 2.6 would have been good, so the extra is a bonus. AMAZING what a decent manager with a game plan can do !