Data

Despite a 6 out of 6 Sunday & Monday the profit gained served only to reduce the losses suffered during Saturday's car crash of a day. It was a day of many shock results I'm sure will have been reflected among the PL Tipster Competition. The +5.75 profit from the preceding midweek has therefor been eroded down to a less than satisfactory -2.39 Just a few league games midweek as we make an effort to return to the black. Cham 20230207 2.19 3.23 3.46 Blackpoo v Huddersf H 230-238 2 1~0 Lg 1 20230207 1.92 3.48 3.88 Port Val v Accringt H 237-228 19 1~0 Lg 2 20230207 4.08 3.25 1.94 Crewe v Leyton O A 234-271 -27 1~2 Lg 2 20230207 2.84 3.17 2.49 Doncaste v Tranmere A 236-260 -14 0~1 Conf 20230207 2.10 3.34 3.20 Chesterf v Woking H 273-268 15 2~0 Conf 20230207 2.29 3.28 2.90 Halifax v Barnet A 236-282 -36 0~2 Conf 20230207 4.08 3.34 1.84 Maidenhe v Southend H 249-255 4 1~0 Conf 20230207 2.34 3.37 2.74 Oldham v Dag and H 242-244 8 2~0 Conf 20230207 2.93 3.36 2.23 York v Solihull A 231-268 -27 0~2 Prem 20230208 1.48 4.76 6.30 Man Unit v Leeds H 283-239 55 2~1

04/02/23 L. Orient v AFC Wimb (2) 4.33 05/02/23 Nottm Forest v Leeds (1) 2.60 £6.00 Double

The midweek results 31Jan-01 Feb game pred ratings diff outcome AvOdds Ross Cou v Hibernia A 213-248 -24 Luton v Cardiff H 297-218 89 RESULT 1.95 Crewe v Stockpor D 234-247 -3 RESULT 3.74 Salford v Walsall H 255-261 4 RESULT 2.31 Carlisle v Barrow H 277-228 59 RESULT 2.1 Aldersho v Boreham A 218-271 -43 RESULT 2.4 Eastleig v Barnet A 246-282 -26 RESULT 2.96 Solihull v Notts Co A 264-285 -11 RESULT 1.52 Woking v Torquay H 267-248 29 Yeovil v Wealdsto H 260-237 33 Motherwe v St Johns A 201-224 -12 RESULT 3.7 Aberdeen v St Mirre H 254-255 10 Celtic v Livingst H 285-245 51 RESULT 1.1 Hearts v Rangers D 258-272 -3 Kilmarno v Dundee U A 218-246 -17 Oxford v Barnsley D 270-280 0 16 games, returned 21.78 to 1pt level stakes.

Prem 20230203 1.63 4.05 5.59 Chelsea v Fulham H 255-258 8 2~1 Bund 20230203 4.26 3.92 1.81 Augsburg v Leverkus A 221-246 -15 1~2 Cham 20230203 1.77 3.63 4.64 West Bro v Coventry H 250-244 16 1~0 Conf 20230203 3.05 3.36 2.15 Scnuthor v Barnet A 243-282 -29 0~2 Prem 20230204 1.35 5.16 9.31 Brighton v Bournemo H 284-226 69 2~0 Prem 20230204 1.40 4.77 8.40 Man Unit v Crystal H 283-266 28 1~0 Prem 20230204 4.01 3.81 1.89 Wolves v Liverpoo D 259-271 -1 0~0 Prem 20230204 1.64 3.84 5.81 Newcastl v West Ham H 324-218 117 1~0 Prem 20230204 8.08 4.66 1.42 Everton v Arsenal A 207-310 -92 0~2 Prem 20230204 1.99 3.62 3.81 Aston Vi v Leiceste H 251-230 32 2~1 Prem 20230204 1.89 3.64 4.23 Brentfor v Southamp D 243-256 -2 1~1 Bund 20230204 1.68 4.16 4.80 Dortmund v Freiburg H 264-267 7 1~0 Bund 20230204 1.48 4.62 6.46 Ein Fran v Hertha H 278-235 53 1~0 Bund 20230204 1.99 3.39 4.07 Union Be v Mainz H 256-243 23 2~1 Bund 20230204 1.53 4.62 5.73 M'gladba v Schalke H 261-234 37 3~1 Bund 20230204 3.74 3.74 1.97 FC Koln v RB Leipz A 226-263 -27 1~2 Bund 20230204 2.86 3.62 2.40 Bochum v Hoffenhe H 243-239 14 3~1 ScPr 20230204 2.18 3.20 3.43 Livingst v Kilmarno H 250-249 12 1~0 ScPr 20230204 1.13 8.40 18.04 Rangers v Ross Cou H 282-243 50 1~0 ScPr 20230204 2.73 3.27 2.56 St Mirre v Hibernia H 265-258 18 1~0 ScPr 20230204 2.03 3.45 3.58 Aberdeen v Motherwe H 254-231 34 1~0 ScPr 20230204 1.68 3.89 4.76 Hearts v Dundee U H 261-246 26 1~0 Cham 20230204 4.92 3.77 1.70 Rotherha v Sheffiel A 244-345 -91 0~2 Cham 20230204 3.07 3.17 2.41 Huddersf v QPR H 238-212 36 1~0 Cham 20230204 2.16 3.24 3.51 Hull v Cardiff H 296-218 88 2~1 Cham 20230204 2.26 3.22 3.29 Luton v Stoke H 297-226 81 3~1 Cham 20230204 1.54 4.03 6.28 Middlesb v Blackpoo H 330-230 110 1~0 Cham 20230204 2.09 3.33 3.61 Millwall v Sunderla H 249-257 2 2~0 Cham 20230204 2.43 3.20 3.00 Preston v Bristol H 324-231 103 2~1 Cham 20230204 2.84 3.20 2.55 Reading v Watford A 233-339 -96 0~1 Cham 20230204 1.85 3.54 4.33 Swansea v Birmingh H 258-229 39 1~0 Cham 20230204 2.54 3.32 2.76 Norwich v Burnley H 280-282 8 1~0 Lg 1 20230204 1.50 4.15 6.22 Bolton v Cheltenh H 264-235 39 1~0 Lg 1 20230204 2.18 3.43 3.16 Bristol v Milton K H 261-212 59 1~0 Lg 1 20230204 6.77 4.42 1.44 Cambridg v Ipswich A 242-270 -18 0~2 Lg 1 20230204 1.31 5.08 9.23 Derby v Morecamb H 274-233 51 2~1 Lg 1 20230204 2.36 3.27 2.95 Exeter v Charlton H 247-244 13 3~1 Lg 1 20230204 2.14 3.29 3.35 Fleetwoo v Burton H 229-228 11 2~1 Lg 1 20230204 3.77 3.64 1.90 Forest G v Peterbor A 189-255 -56 1~2 Lg 1 20230204 1.99 3.40 3.65 Oxford v Shrewsbu H 270-260 20 2~1 Lg 1 20230204 2.48 3.25 2.80 Port Val v Wycombe H 251-241 20 1~0 Lg 1 20230204 2.39 3.35 2.85 Portsmou v Barnsley A 258-280 -12 0~1 Lg 1 20230204 1.68 3.72 4.97 Sheffiel v Plymouth D 259-274 -5 2~2 Lg 1 20230204 2.25 3.28 3.14 Accringt v Lincoln H 228-231 7 2~0 Lg 2 20230204 2.57 3.19 2.72 Bradford v Mansfiel H 280-261 29 2~1 Lg 2 20230204 1.63 3.80 5.18 Carlisle v Harrogat H 277-218 69 1~0 Lg 2 20230204 2.55 3.13 2.79 Colchest v Barrow H 217-228 -1 1~0 Lg 2 20230204 3.31 3.26 2.16 Crewe v Grimsby H 234-237 7 1~0 Lg 2 20230204 1.89 3.59 3.84 Doncaste v Hartlepo H 236-229 17 2~1 Lg 2 20230204 1.93 3.37 3.96 Gillingh v Crawley H 246-233 23 1~0 Lg 2 20230204 1.81 3.37 4.52 Leyton O v AFC Wimb A 250-268 -8 1~2 Lg 2 20230204 2.05 3.21 3.68 Northamp v Walsall H 303-261 52 2~1 Lg 2 20230204 1.95 3.36 3.85 Salford v Rochdale H 255-194 71 1~0 Lg 2 20230204 1.73 3.47 4.91 Stockpor v Tranmere H 247-245 12 1~0 Lg 2 20230204 3.19 3.19 2.26 Sutton v Stevenag A 238-266 -18 1~2 Lg 2 20230204 2.54 3.21 2.75 Newport v Swindon A 210-259 -39 0~1 Conf 20230204 1.93 3.68 3.39 Aldersho v Dorking A 218-235 -7 0~1 Conf 20230204 3.10 3.27 2.18 Boreham v Chesterf H 271-273 8 1~0 Conf 20230204 1.92 3.48 3.60 Bromley v Maidenhe H 242-239 13 1~0 Conf 20230204 3.23 3.22 2.14 Eastleig v Woking A 246-267 -11 0~2 Conf 20230204 2.47 3.11 2.76 Oldham v Halifax H 252-228 34 1~0 Conf 20230204 1.98 3.58 3.30 Solihull v Gateshea H 264-197 77 2~1 Conf 20230204 1.55 3.93 5.35 Southend v York H 255-221 44 1~0 Conf 20230204 8.20 5.12 1.30 Torquay v Notts Co A 248-285 -27 1~3 Conf 20230204 2.56 3.41 2.47 Wealdsto v Dag and H 237-233 14 1~0 Conf 20230204 2.07 3.41 3.23 Yeovil v Maidston H 260-200 70 1~0 Conf 20230204 4.30 4.16 1.63 Altrinch v Wrexham A 242-282 -30 0~2 Prem 20230205 4.43 4.13 1.74 Tottenha v Man City H 287-282 16 1~0 Prem 20230205 2.64 3.41 2.69 Nott'm F v Leeds H 238-239 10 1~0 Bund 20230205 2.08 3.72 3.39 Stuttgar v Werder B A 237-257 -10 0~1 Bund 20230205 5.00 4.58 1.60 Wolfsbur v Bayern M A 258-292 -24 0~2 ScPr 20230205 12.27 6.44 1.21 St Johns v Celtic A 214-295 -70 0~1 Cham 20230206 1.96 3.44 3.88 Blackbur v Wigan D 246-261 -5 1~1 The scores to the extreme right are derived from my prediction (HDA) then using the most frequent score from the two teams results this season. They are there as a gesture, not as a serious attempt to make a profit!

Returning to a method I've mentioned on here some time ago, although for me it has never gone away, just been further developed to squeeze out a better performance. Simply put, examining all a season's league results to date and finding the best fit ratings that would have explained those results. Then apply these to the next set of games. When I first began with this I was minimising the error from previous games of goals scored by each team, the actual results were irrelevant. It worked up to a point, but did not come close to a profit (I use average odds for my profit loss summaries) I've now switched to maximising the number of correct results (HDA) I can elicit by calculating ratings for past results. The best fit can be derived by using a separate rating for home and away performances, unfortunately this does not give the best results when extrapolated. Indeed, a single rating for a team's overall strength, although not fitting past results so well, does do better going forward. When such apparent anomalies occur I can't be alone in digging around for a good reason why this should be. And here is where we can easily fall into the trap of shoe horning a theory to support the findings. I've always considered that teams can have seemingly different fortunes when on the road than their home results would support. But maybe, just maybe, the fixture list may conspire to give easier games at home or away which skew our expectations for certain teams - or is it merely a statistical variance within the tolerances of what can be expected? Anyway, I favoured the single rating for each team because it shows over many seasons to be a superior predictor of future outcomes. Not many midweek games, but a sample nevertheless. I'll endeavour to upload the weekend's predictions sometime on Friday. ScPr 20230131 3.69 3.47 1.99 Ross Cou v Hibernia A 213-248 -24 Cham 20230131 1.95 3.4 4.2 Luton v Cardiff H 297-218 89 Lg 2 20230131 5.28 3.74 1.63 Crewe v Stockpor D 234-247 -3 Lg 2 20230131 2.31 3.14 3.1 Salford v Walsall H 255-261 4 Lg 2 20230131 2.1 3.27 3.46 Carlisle v Barrow H 277-228 59 Conf 20230131 2.79 3.21 2.4 Aldersho v Boreham A 218-271 -43 Conf 20230131 2.22 3.36 2.96 Eastleig v Barnet A 246-282 -26 Conf 20230131 5.07 4.31 1.52 Solihull v Notts Co A 264-285 -11 Conf 20230131 1.41 4.51 6.46 Woking v Torquay H 267-248 29 Conf 20230131 2.43 3.12 2.82 Yeovil v Wealdsto H 260-237 33 ScPr 20230201 2.06 3.22 3.7 Motherwe v St Johns A 201-224 -12 ScPr 20230201 1.95 3.43 3.83 Aberdeen v St Mirre H 254-255 10 ScPr 20230201 1.1 9.36 21.3 Celtic v Livingst H 285-245 51 ScPr 20230201 5.11 4.3 1.57 Hearts v Rangers D 258-272 -3 ScPr 20230201 2.38 3.22 3 Kilmarno v Dundee U A 218-246 -17 Lg 1 20230201 2.4 3.4 2.75 Oxford v Barnsley D 270-280 0

21/01/23 Bremen v Wolfsburg (2) 2.15 21/01/23 Troyes v Lens (2) 1.65 £9.00 Double

21/01/23 Leicester v Brighton (2) 2.05 21/01/23 C. Palace v Newcastle (2) 1.83 £14.00 Double

14-Jan-23 Accrington v Bristol R (2) 2.37 15-Jan-23 Angers v Clermont (2) 2.90 £20 Double

07-Jan-23 Gillingham v Leicester (1) 15.00 £5 Single

31-Dec-22 Brighton v Arsenal (2) 2.10 02-Jan-23 QPR v Sheffield Utd (2) 2.40 £33 Double

Seconded!

Fader, Sorry, must be a mammoth task keeping this list up to date which is much appreciated. But have you missed adding my Belgium v Canada 6pts to my total?

05-Nov-22 Angers v Lens (2) 1.7 06-Nov-22 Lorient v PSG (2) 1.25 £5 Double

1 Sunday November 20th 4pm Qatar Vs Ecuador (A) (1-2) 2 Monday November 21st 1pm England Vs Iran (H) (2-0) 3 Monday November 21st 4pm Senegal Vs Holland (A) (1-2) 4 Monday November 21st 7pm USA Vs Wales (H) (1-0) 5 Tuesday November 22nd 10am Argentina Vs Saudi Arabia (H) (2-0) 6 Tuesday November 22nd 1pm Denmark Vs Tunisia (H) (2-0) 7 Tuesday November 22nd 4pm Mexico Vs Poland (X) (1-1) 8 Tuesday November 22nd 7pm France Vs Australia (H) (2-1) 9 Wednesday November 23rd 10am Morocco Vs Croatia (A) (1-2) 10 Wednesday November 23rd 1pm Germany Vs Japan (H) (3-1) 11 Wednesday November 23rd 4pm Spain Vs Costa Rica (H) (2-0) 12 Wednesday November 23rd 7pm Belgium Vs Canada (H) (1-0) 13 Thursday November 24th 10am Switzerland Vs Cameroon (H) (1-0) 14 Thursday November 24th 1pm Uruguay Vs South Korea (H) (1-0) 15 Thursday November 24th 4pm Portugal Vs Ghana (H) (2-0) 16 Thursday November 24th 7pm Brazil Vs Serbia (H) (2-0) 17 Friday November 25th 10am Wales Vs Iran (H) (1-0) 18 Friday November 25th 1pm Qatar Vs Senegal (A) (1-2) 19 Friday November 25th 4pm Holland Vs Ecuador (H) (1-0) 20 Friday November 25th 7pm England Vs USA (H) (2-1) 21 Saturday November 26th 10am Tunisia Vs Australia (X) (1-1) 22 Saturday November 26th 1pm Poland Vs Saudi Arabia (H) (1-0) 23 Saturday November 26th 4pm France Vs Denmark (H) (1-0) 24 Saturday November 26th 7pm Argentina Vs Mexico (H) (2-1) 25 Sunday November 27th 10am Japan Vs Costa Rica (H) (2-1) 26 Sunday November 27th 1pm Belgium Vs Morocoo (H) (2-0) 27 Sunday November 27th 4pm Croatia Vs Canada (H) (1-0) 28 Sunday November 27th 7pm Spain Vs Germany (X) (1-1) 29 Monday November 28th 10am Cameroon Vs Serbia (A) (0-1) 30 Monday November 28th 1pm S.Korea Vs Ghana (X) (1-1) 31 Monday November 28th 4pm Brazil Vs Switzerland (H) (2-0) 32 Monday November 28th 7pm Portugal Vs Uruguay (H) (1-0) 33 Tuesday November 29th 3pm Ecuador Vs Senegal (X) (1-1) 34 Tuesday November 29th 3pm Holland Vs Qatar (H) (1-0) 35 Tuesday November 29th 7pm Iran Vs USA (A) (0-1) 36 Tuesday November 29th 7pm Wales Vs England (A) (0-1) 37 Wednesday November 30th 3pm Tunisia Vs France (A) (0-2) 38 Wednesday November 30th 3pm Australia Vs Denmark (A) (0-2) 39 Wednesday November 30th 7pm Poland Vs Argentina (A) (0-1) 40 Wednesday November 30th 7pm Saudi Arabia Vs Mexico (A) (0-1) 41 Thursday December 1st 3pm Croatia Vs Belgium (A) (0-1) 42 Thursday December 1st 3pm Canada Vs Morocco (A) (0-1) 43 Thursday December 1st 7pm Japan Vs Spain (A) (0-2) 44 Thursday December 1st 7pm Costa Rica Vs Germany (A) (0-2) 45 Friday December 2nd 3pm S.Korea Vs Portugal (A) (0-2) 46 Friday December 2nd 3pm Ghana Vs Uruguay (A) (0-2) 47 Friday December 2nd 7pm Serbia Vs Switzerland (X) (1-1) 48 Friday December 2nd 7pm Cameroon Vs Brazil (A) (0-2) 1 Brazil 2 Argentina 3 France 4 England

30-Oct-22 Cadiz v Athletico Madrid (2) 1.57 31-Oct-22 Verona v Roma (2) 1.80 £7 Double