Data

It's only valid when real money is staked and the more staked, the greater the positive influence on our forum posted spread bets. Should be worth a shot, you first though

Abandon hope all ye who enter here . . . Another dreadful weekend now standing at -522.80 from 98 bets. Sh1t or bust until the season end, all guns blazin' 1 point Mini Performance spreads; Doncaster v Blackburn SELL AWAY 26-29 Morecambe v Cambridge BUY AWAY 15-18 Torquay v Guisley SELL AWAY 14-17 25 point Total Goal spreads; Bradford v MK Dons SELL 2.55-2.75 Doncaster v Blackburn SELL 2.5-2.7 Coventry v Lincoln BUY 2.1-2.3 Gateshead v Ebbsfleet SELL 2.5-2.7 Tranmere v Solihull SELL 2.6-2.8 Can this actually get worse? (answers not required, thanks)

. . . and even more, from our domestic programme; Birmingham v Sheff Utd SELL AWAY 19-22 Ipswich v A Villa SELL AWAY 26-29 Sheff Wed v Reading SELL AWAY 15-18 Fleetwood v Wigan SELL AWAY 28-31 (SPIN) Eastleigh v Macclesfield SELL AWAY 25-28 Chester v Maidstone SELL AWAY 28-31 Leyton v Wrexham SELL AWAY 16-19

And from Sunday's fixtures I'm going . . . SX unless stated. BRAZA SUN 22/4 Ceara v Sao Paulo SELL HOME 15-18 PREMI SUN 22/4 Stoke v Burnley SELL HOME 20-23 BUND2 SUN 22/4 Erzgebirge v Duisburg SELL AWAY 15-18 CHINA SUN 22/4 Dalian Yifang v Tianjin Quan SELL HOME 16-19 CHINA SUN 22/4 Jiangsu Suning v Sh Shenhua SELL HOME 25-28 (SPIN)

I feel your pain.

For today; ITALY SAT 21/4 Sassuolo v Fiorentina SELL HOME 16-19 FINLA SAT 21/4 Inter Turku v TPS Turku SELL AWAY 13-16

We all know what is certain happen if anyone did oppose all your spreads (or mine!) with cash . . . So, the sooner they start the better.

A welcome +14 yesterday, two winning days on the bounce (although only +15 in total). Just enough however to get me to below the -400 mark, now -399.80 from 84. Being in deficit with this 'playing for points' exercise is one thing, but my real money horseracing spreads dealt me a severe blow with yesterday's changing going, several hundreds down on the day!

Another for today, SUN 14:00 Antalya v Konyaspor (TURK) SELL AWAY 17 - 20

Man City's losing streak comes to an end, so now 0.2 profit from 4 bets, ROI% of 5%

Wow! a 1 point profit from yesterday's pair. Now -413.80 from 79 One more from today's programme, SUN 18:00 Benfica v Porto SELL AWAY 14-17 . . . and @harry_rag with no tries for Quins, we're both having a miserable time, eh?

Well, Friday's pick leaves me another 16 points deeper in the mire, now -414.80 from 77 bets. Let's see what my Saturday pairing brings. Another Sunday pick to add to my woes, SUN 15:00 America Mineiro v Sport Recife (BRAZ) SELL AWAY 12-15

-398.80 from 76 bets, my best shot at reducing the losses this weekend is . . . FRI 17:30 Furth v Regensbug (GER2) SELL AWAY 19-22 SAT 15:00 Norwich v Cardiff (CHAM) SELL HOME 17-20 SAT 16:00 Portimonense v Estoril (PORT) SELL AWAY 14-17 SUN 13:30 Newcastle v Arsenal (PREM) SELL AWAY 23-26 SUN 16:00 Martimo v Moreirense (PORT) SELL AWAY 13-16

These system bets are unfortunately few and far between, but such patience is often rewarded by profits. We have a system bet this weekend, and a cracker it is too. . . Tottenham v Manchester City ~ Home win (Oddschecker current best odds 2.68)

My strategy yesterday was to use my home-grown football ratings, which simply forecast each game as home,away or draw, and sell the forecast losing side's spread. No parameters other than that, so no minimum spread price or anything. I wondered how to proceed with my draw predictions and opted to sell whichever team had the highest spread quote. Big mistake that, the bets where my prediction suggested a drawn game produced a loss of over 100 points ~ if I'd ignored them I'd have been in profit. Such is the process of strategy development. We learn from such things and move on. The frustrating part is that my HDA predictions made a profit from traditional odds (using "average odds" from OddsPortal) of +5.54 to 1 point stakes. (and no, my prediction system doesn't always profit like that). A work in progress here and a big deficit to recover, onward and upward.