Data

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About Data

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    Better Spread Bettor
  • Birthday 06/17/48

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    http://www.smithycottage.com

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  1. Well, back down to earth with a -19 point loss from my weekend picks. Landing a -15 for a red card did most of the damage I suppose, but taking the occasional dismissal is an inbuilt hazard that is inevitable with mini performances. Now standing at +22 from eight bets, onward and upward.
  2. These are totally speculative mini performance buys in European football. I'm simply applying the same selection principles as I do with English leagues. But they were developed using English results data, and Euro leagues tend to have greater disparity between the top & bottom clubs. So, currently this is purely to allow me to see if the ideas work well in the European sphere. Home Away Leganes v Las Palmas 23 26 10 13 BuyA Sevilla v Atletico Madrid 14 17 19 22 BuyH Bordeaux v Nice 21 24 12 15 BuyA PSG v Marseille 40 43 8 11 BuyA Inter v Benevento 38 41 5 8 BuyA Anderlecht v Mouscron 34 37 7 10 BuyA Chaves v Estoril Praia 23 26 12 15 BuyA Portimonense v Porto 8 11 32 35 BuyH
  3. Another to add to my weekend list Fulham (v Wolves) 17-20 BUY
  4. They're marking 'em up for the weekend, so going in early. There may be more to follow . . . Burton (v Milwall) a BUY @ 13-16 Sunderland (v Boro) a BUY @ 13-16 (Wigan v) Rochdale a BUY @ 7-10 (SX) (Sutton v ) Guiseley a BUY @ 7-10 Woking (v Boreham Wood) a BUY @ 14-17 (SPIN)
  5. A nice +14 from the game, not sure how you'd quantify +41 from 2 bets in terms of ROI though. Seems the more I research the luckier I get, only two bets I know but I'm quite optimistic about this. Not had a lucrative footy strategy for a few years, since I did rather well with total goal minutes spreads (unfortunately it didn't roll over well into the following season) However, I must temper my enthusiasm having had more football false dawns than I can count. What I really enjoy about spread betting is getting away from the stark binary yes/no, win/lose of traditional betting. Take the match last night . . . Kickoff: 0-0 I'm standing at -1 point 14' Wolves 1-0, my position now -11 25' Wolves 2-0, my position unchanged 27' Score now 2-1, I'm -1 again 90' 2-2, Norwich score in injury time, I finish +14
  6. Tonight I've a fancy for Norwich's chances on their visit to Wolves. So it's a BUY of the 8-11 about Norwich mini perf quoted by both big firms. The 27 points gain from my first win looks big enough to cover any but the most disastrous outcome for Norwich, but hey, I'm expecting to collect!
  7. Lucky start? a 3-1 home win for a make-up of 45, so 27 pts won. We'll see how this progresses.
  8. IMO the quotes appear to factor in the red card deduction more than necessary, making this (again in my opinion) one of the more favourable markets for buyers. But I know unlike me, you're an enthusiastic buyer anyway.
  9. A search of this board didn't throw up anyone taking a regular punt on mini performances, so I'll give it a go. Limited league games in England on an FA Cup weekend, but I've found one quote I think is worth a shot. Crawley have a home mini of 15 - 18 in their match at home to Lincoln City. The home side have picked up in recent games and their table position belies their potential, so a buy of the 18 (currently with both SX & SPIN) looks a decent bet. ** for the uninitiated a team's mini performance is calculated by win=15pts., draw=5pts., clean sheet=5pts, +10pts for each goal scored. However, one sting in the tail is 15pts are deducted for each and every red card conceded.
  10. Over Complicated?

    One of the "super home wins" this week; Rochdale v Fleetwood
  11. Trefik Tricks (Value Bets)

    09/02/2018 18:30 Alkmaar AZ v Twente FC 5.50 0 NED - l.nizozemska liga W 2017/2018 09/02/2018 18:30 Alkmaar AZ v Twente FC 9.00 1 NED - l.nizozemska liga W 2017/2018 10/02/2018 15:00 Poole Town v Havant _W 4.75 1 ENG - Conference South 2017/2018 10/02/2018 18:00 Rio Preto v Marilia 5.25 2 BRA - Campeonato Paulista A3 2018 11/02/2018 15:00 Arouca v Real 9.00 2 POR - Liga Vitalis 2017/2018
  12. Trefik Tricks (Value Bets)

    -9.25 from 20, -46% ROI. Another bet to add . . . 09/02/2018 22:30 Chapecoense AF v Atletico Tubarao 5.50 2 BRA - Campeonato Catarinense 2018
  13. Trefik Tricks (Value Bets)

    -5.25 from 16 bets represents a return of -33% on level stakes. One additional bet is flagged for this afternoon; 11/02/2018 14:00 Cibalia Vinkovci v Hajduk Split 7.50 1 CRO - 1. HNL 2017/2018
  14. Trefik Tricks (Value Bets)

    Ongoing bank now at -5.00. Additional games from today's scan are . . . 06/02/2018 14:00 Olympique Medea v Alger MC 4.33 2 ALG - Division 1 2017/2018 07/02/2018 15:00 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo U19 v Atletico Madrid U19 6.50 1 I - UEFA Youth League U19 2017/2018 07/02/2018 17:30 Brodarac U19 v Manchester United U19 4.75 0 I - UEFA Youth League U19 2017/2018 07/02/2018 17:30 Brodarac U19 v Manchester United U19 6.00 1 I - UEFA Youth League U19 2017/2018 07/02/2018 23:45 Sao Paulo v Bragantino 8.00 2 BRA - Campeonato Paulista 2018
  15. Trefik Tricks (Value Bets)

    One winner at 7.0 from the games that have finished from that first batch in this second phase, leaving a -2.00 going forward. Today's values bets trawl shows the following; 05/02/2018 16:00 Husak R. / Senkarova A. Hrabalova K. /Tomanova 7.00 Bet365 1 5.2.18 11:57 Trnava (n) W D 2018 05/02/2018 21:05 Gonzalez, Maximo Brooksby, Jenson 7.00 Bet365 2 5.2.18 09:06 San Francisco Q 2018 06/02/2018 13:00 Bristol City U23 Watford U23 3.75 Bet365 0 5.2.18 12:32 ENG - Premier League 2 (Division 2) 2017/2018 06/02/2018 15:00 Nitra U19 Feyenoord U19 5.00 Bet365 1 5.2.18 10:44 I - UEFA Youth League U19 2017/2018 06/02/2018 17:00 Hapoel Kfar Sava Beitar Jerusalem 4.33 Bet365 1 5.2.18 12:26 ISR - State Cup 2017/2018