Data

Sheffield Wed v Blackburn (2) 2.30 Napoli v Inter Milan (2) 2.37 £18 double

Burnley v West Ham (2) 2.00 Swindon v Mansfield (2) 2.00 £25 double

Agree, grateful to @avongirl for running all this, what must be a daunting task. Sensational total @HERE! Admins, what has been the highest ever top score?

Union Berlin v Eintractht Fr. (2) 2.80 Burnley v Crystal Palace (2) 2.60 Fiorantina v Juventus (2) 2.45 £30 treble

Apologies, some of the above fixture list got massively screwed up somewhere along the cut / paste / transfer.

Still looking at this idea I dug a little deeper. ELO has to begin somewhere, a start point where each team's ratings are equal, from then forward the ratings evolve in line with results (or in this case the bookmaker odds). So I created the run from 2015-16 season and carried over the ratings from season to season allowing the ratings plenty of time to mature. Examining the results from English Premier through to National League and using criteria which dictates . . . If home team odds are <= away team odds, bet on home win, else bet away win. Seasons 2021-22 & 2022-23 using the above trigger gave a 50.3% success when applied to bookies odds (B365 as per football-data) The same set of games when applying to my ELO predicted odds gave a 49.2% success rate. Given that bookie odds are one of the most accurate result predictors, to be just 1.1% below that threshold I find encouraging. With the fact that bookie odds are very hard to beat when looking at the entire fixture list, I turned my attention to where these ELO odds differed most significantly from the book. There was little encouragement when looking at the games where ELO odds for a home win were much shorter than B365, at the other end however where ELO home odds were far higher did hit on enough good away returns to turn a decent profit. Very few bets however and a poor strike rate - still, a profit nevertheless. However, I'm always wary of profits from low strike rates. Bookie odds will move subject to where the money is going, so can we assume that where the odds offered are well below where ELO suggests they should be? Using the above situation did make a small gain over the past two seasons, although mainly odds-on it displays a pleasingly high strike rate, so may be worth following. The triggers discussed above give the following for this weekend. (B365 odds as per Football-data) Chelsea - Brentford 1.64 4.12 5.3 home bet Arsenal - Sheffield United 1.13 9.52 21.2 home bet Southampton - Birmingham 1.59 4.1 5.41 home bet Leeds - Huddersfield 1.35 5.08 8.42 home bet Sunderland - Norwich 2.07 3.62 3.37 home bet Middlesbrough - Stoke 1.76 3.82 4.4 home bet Ipswich - Plymouth 1.38 5.15 7.14 home bet Cardiff - Preston 2.03 3.39 3.72 home bet Blackpool - Peterboro 2.24 3.34 3.08 home bet Stockport - Tranmere 1.32 5.01 8.68 home bet Mansfield - Walsall 1.49 4.28 5.91 home bet Gillingham - Newport County 1.88 3.47 3.94 home bet Forest Green - Crawley Town 2.15 3.56 3.09 home bet Doncaster - Grimsby 2.2 3.45 3.07 home bet Barrow - Salford 1.93 3.52 3.7 home bet Accrington - Colchester 2.07 3.54 3.27 home bet Gateshead - Dag and Red 1.46 4.54 5.53 home bet Liverpool - Nott'm Forest 1.27 6.29 10.22 home bet Aston Villa - Luton 1.28 6.1 10.65 home bet Morecambe - Wrexham 2.34 3.73 2.65 away win

Reading v Portsmouth (2) 2.00 Exeter v Lincoln (2) 3.20 £43 double

Rotherham v Ipswich (2) 1.50 Hearts v Celtic (2) 1.44 £39 double

Exeter v Barnsley (2) 2.62 Metz v Nice (2) 1.70 £21 double

Clermont v Paris SG (2) 1.44 Mainz v Leverkusen (2) 1.55 £27 double

Borussia Mgb v RB Leipzig (2) 1.55 Empoli v Inter Milan (2) 1.30 £22 double

Wolves v Liverpool (2) 1.40 Everton v Arsenal (2) 1.50 £17 double

02/09/23 Oxford v Port Vale (1) 1.80 02/09/23 Portsmouth v Peterbro (1) 2.37 £10.00 Double

26/08/23 Mansfield v Stockport (1) 2.20 26/08/23 Peterborough v Derby (1) 2.60 £10.00 Double

I'm in here I'm sure! . . . and I'm going with Fulham