Data

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About Data

  • Rank
    Better Spread Bettor
  • Birthday 06/17/48

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    http://www.smithycottage.com

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    Male
  • Location
    Chesterfield

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  1. I'd been making extensive use of PL racecards section. But after today, I'll be checking carefully. The 2:10 at Hamilton has favourite odds of 5.5? If only! How on earth does this happen?
  2. Predictions Made Simpler

    No bets from me, just pointing out the log term lack of potential. Yesterday's 16 produced 50% winners, but low odds for an outlay of 16, a return of 5.76. So a loss of -10.24 EDIT: Whoops sorry! forgot to factor in the returned stakes, so 13.76 returned, a loss of 2.24. More respectable, but a loss nevertheless.
  3. Predictions Made Simpler

    As a cross-check on whether I'm sticking to the suggested method, I've used TREFIK to generate today's picks, and it outputs the following; 1 X 2 are current Bet365 odds, 'Prg' is the inbuilt TREFIK rating and 'Tr' is the software's bet pick (or blank for no pick)
  4. Predictions Made Simpler

    @Rivilearner yes, the same criteria other than the minimum games played and high limit odds I set out above. However, your 'today's selections' remind me that I'd only looked at where the home side was 1st to 4th in the league, so home wins only. The stats of away teams who were 1st to 4th prior to the game are worse I'm afraid, yielding 31% home wins, 27% draws and 42% away wins ~ an overall -12% ROI using Bet365. But a selection method that doesn't yield a profit from single bets is not a good platform for sourcing picks for accumulator betting.
  5. Predictions Made Simpler

    Using TREFIK I examined past results of this method in worldwide leagues over the past 12 months and Bet365 odds. Slight adjustments made were . . . each team must have played at least 6 games in the season, and odds range limited to 1.50 to 2.50. The 3,709 qualifying games produced 54% winners and a ROI of -7% Breakdown
  6. SPECIALIST STATS SITES

    @jackthehat Not a site, but downloadable software that allows the user to process the stats that you're after. Shots & shots on target (both for and against), also for corners, possession, red & yellow cards, pre-game league positions, etc. Dozens and dozens of worldwide leagues are covered and the figures can be configured to cover averages over a full season or a specific number of games. I covered it in more detail here . . . It is now 1 Euro per week, but for me it's money well spent and I wouldn't be without it! If new subscribers quote SMITHYCOTTAGE in the comments area they get extra weeks added.
  7. It is necessarily complex to allow for a vast array of research methods all helping to find unique angles. Your comments are of course valid, but is it a little like dismissing Excel as being too complicated in favour of sticking with pen and paper. A little effort can pay dividends. I've been a Trefik user for a few years now and still finding new things to try and methods of working (as I am with Excel too!)
  8. Everybody and his dog 'knows' this is going to be a high scoring game. Just the occasion when, because each team also know the dangers of their opponents attack, they will concentrate more on not giving anything away. For me it has all the hallmarks of a 0-0 at 90 minutes. Having said that, should a goal be scored in the first half, then the game profile changes and a hat-full is possible. But for me that doesn't make the odds of 23.0 available for 0-0 correct score (Skybet) a poor value bet, even if used as a small stake saver with whatever else you think may happen.
  9. My winnings were predominantly from horse racing daily markets. I suppose my research allowed me a better idea of the outcomes. There are acquaintances who have won more money than I with spread betting and still have their accounts open. In my experience spread firms are much more tolerant than traditional bookies. For example I also had winning sports spread accounts with IGIndex, Spreadfair, City Index, etc., before they ceased operations, none of them were closed down. The 'good times' were up to about 3 years ago, at which time it appeared the spread firms' improved their analysis and my edge was eroding. I took a 1 year sabbatical, but 'missed' the buzz and have been active again for the past couple of years. Much reduced stakes now though, and far fewer opportunities, over this time I'm just over 12K in front, but it's an enjoyable hobby! Apologies. I always think of football betting on a game by game basis and individual matches.
  10. True up to a point, so long as the winnings aren't going disproportionately to an individual. Accountant led management dictates the firm can do without winning punters. The only exception in my experience are the two UK based spread firms (NOT the Irish outfit who also only cater for losers) My winning accounts are still active after more than 20 years. Okay, every bet I place is 'referred to trader' and occasionally (rather than usually) my stake is restricted or the quote shifted ~ but never a hint of account closure (and my total winnings are into six-figures) Football is heavily analysed by possibly millions of people and consequently extremely difficult to crack. But like you it won't stop me trying either, I've not beaten the book over the long term, but I'm enjoying the research. "Focus on the journey, not the destination. Joy is found not in finishing an activity but in doing it."
  11. Footy Spreads (an attempted recovery)

    My final-game-of-season fears were realised, the goalfest in the Tottenham game (5-4) put paid to my attempt to recover losses by the season end. Today's reversal leaves my deficit at -89.55. However, given that I was trying to recover from disastrous mini performance losses of 539.55, these total goals & superiority spreads have served me well.
  12. A 0-0 draw is the worst result to have when you're buying total goals, so today's two bets send me into a loss. 70 staked, 3W 4L, -16.00
  13. China spread betting

    No luck with today's result: 40 staked, 1W 3L, -11.50
  14. China spread betting

    A couple of slight reversals from today's two, but still in profit 30 pts staked, 1W 2L, profit 2pts Henan Jianye v Beijing Renhe kicks off 12:35 tomorrow.