Data

Full House! 5 selections, 5 winners. I'll settle for that, nice start to a new system season. Now standing at 4.79 pts profit from 10 bets, 47.9% ROI

Team names can be a nightmare when trawling information from multiple sources. The number of variants appears to be directly proportional with the obscurity of the league.

Many football rating methods are compiled on a match-by-match basis in real time, inasmuch a ratings is assessed for a game at hand, then using the result of said game, the rating is adjusted accordingly. The most recent match therefore has perhaps too much of an influence on how the new rating moves. This approach presented here also uses past results to calculate the outcome, but it looks at ALL previous game results and treats them as equally important. Trends therefore are not picked up, whichever way a team's form is heading is totally ignored. A good or bad thing? . . . let's find out. I'm using neural/genetic machine learning to process season-to-date league results to find the best fit of correct home, draw, away predictions to then apply to the next set of fixtures. In order allow the algorithms enough relevant information and data it is thought necessary to employ only where a league season is half completed. Other caveats include no leagues of more than 20 teams so as not to overwhelm the net (and take far longer to process). No leagues with too few teams either where teams may play each other more than twice ~ nothing confuses artificial intelligence more than encountering the same situation with different outcomes, e.g. United v City showing one home win and one away win. Having churned through a few leagues here's what it gives for this weekend; (odds are Oddsportal average odds from 50 odd bookies) CHILE 18-Aug-18 16:00 San Luis U. Espanola A 2.57 3.28 2.59 18-Aug-18 19:00 Antofagasta Union La Calera nobet 1.94 3.54 3.57 18-Aug-18 21:30 U. De Chile O'Higgins A 1.64 4.01 4.51 19-Aug-18 00:00 Everton Huachipato H 2.04 3.27 3.52 19-Aug-18 16:00 Deportes Iquique Colo Colo A 3.19 3.51 2.05 19-Aug-18 19:00 U. De Concepcion Deportes Temuco H 1.83 3.43 3.99 19-Aug-18 21:30 U. Catolica Curico Unido H 1.72 3.57 4.45 SWEDEN 18-Aug-18 15:00 Malmo FF Trelleborgs H 1.15 7.89 17.16 19-Aug-18 14:00 Elfsborg Norrkoping X 2.87 3.44 2.36 19-Aug-18 14:00 Sundsvall Hacken H 3.26 3.51 2.13 19-Aug-18 16:30 Brommapojkarna AIK nobet 7.98 4.47 1.4 19-Aug-18 16:30 Djurgarden Kalmar H 1.65 3.63 5.53 20-Aug-18 18:00 Hammarby Orebro H 1.43 4.64 6.64 20-Aug-18 18:00 Goteborg Ostersunds A 2.93 3.25 2.41 JAPAN 19-Aug-18 05:00 Sapporo FC Tokyo X 2.79 3.27 2.45 19-Aug-18 10:00 Nagoya Sagan Tosu X 2.9 3.4 2.3 19-Aug-18 10:00 Shimizu Urawa H 3.54 3.38 2.03 19-Aug-18 10:00 V-Varen Nagasaki C-Osaka X 3.43 3.4 2.05 19-Aug-18 10:30 Kashima Yokohama M. A 1.92 3.77 3.53 19-Aug-18 11:00 Hiroshima Kawasaki Frontale A 2.88 3.41 2.32 19-Aug-18 11:00 Iwata Kashiwa A 2.74 3.17 2.55 19-Aug-18 11:00 Shonan Kobe X 3.23 3.42 2.13 19-Aug-18 11:00 Vegalta Sendai G-Osaka A 2.09 3.53 3.22 CHINA 18-Aug-18 12:35 Beijing Renhe Beijing Guoan A 7.35 5.74 1.31 18-Aug-18 12:35 Chongqing Lifan Shanghai SIPG A 7.94 5.83 1.29 18-Aug-18 12:35 Dalian Yifang F.C. Henan Jianye H 1.91 3.48 3.77 18-Aug-18 12:35 Guangzhou R&F Changchun Yatai A 2.14 3.62 3.01 18-Aug-18 12:35 Guizhou Zhicheng Shandong Luneng A 6.24 4.93 1.4 18-Aug-18 12:35 Tianjin Teda Jiangsu Suning nobet 2.43 3.38 2.71 19-Aug-18 12:35 Guangzhou Evergrande Tianjin Quanjian H 1.07 10.81 22.57 19-Aug-18 12:35 Hebei Shanghai Shenhua H 2.09 3.72 3.01 I also processed Brazil Serie A, but they're not quite half way through their season yet, but here are the forecasts anyway; BRAZIL OddsPortal average odds 18-Aug-18 20:00 Santos Sport Recife H 1.51 4.01 6.46 18-Aug-18 23:00 Corinthians Gremio A 2.97 2.92 2.58 19-Aug-18 15:00 Atletico-PR Flamengo RJ H 2.74 3.12 2.62 19-Aug-18 15:00 Internacional Parana H 1.38 4.4 8.74 19-Aug-18 20:00 Botafogo RJ Atletico-MG X 2.36 3.31 2.92 19-Aug-18 20:00 Cruzeiro Bahia H 1.44 3.98 8.2 19-Aug-18 20:00 Vitoria Palmeiras X 3.42 3.4 2.08 19-Aug-18 23:00 America MG Fluminense H 2.31 3.09 3.19 19-Aug-18 23:00 Sao Paulo Chapecoense-SC H 1.39 4.31 8.88 21-Aug-18 00:00 Vasco Ceara A 1.75 3.36 4.91

A new season beckons and the home win system bets begin. 1.7 pts profit from 5 bets, carried forward from last season Oddschecker best odds at the time of posting are quoted; Chelsea v Arsenal 1.83 Man City v Huddersfield 1.1 Tottenham v Fulham 1.3 West Brom v QPR 1.71 Sheff Utd v Norwich 2.15

Best of luck with this @neilovan I've had over 20 years with ML models, wouldn't go anywhere without them and my betting wallet has seen the benefit. Just a personal view here, but I find it strange that you've focused your attention on football draws.Your past data will show that a level stake bet on each of home win, draw and away win will show the biggest loss to be in the draw column. Does this suggest that the bookies tend to underprice the draw because it is sooo difficult to predict with any degree of certainty? Again, I won't knock your project here, but maybe turning your attention to home wins could (would?) allow a higher win% from more bets? But I'm probably preaching to the converted and you have tried that route and dismissed it. However, fortune favours the brave, so good hunting. I'll be interested to see how it pans out.

Excellent thread @FootballBettingPredictor and I'm sure you'll take the @moggis veiled criticisms above with a pinch of salt. Keep up the good work and show that those who post specific selections for peer review and real-time accounting are worth a thousand of the posters who offer unqualified and unproven opinion.

I'd been making extensive use of PL racecards section. But after today, I'll be checking carefully. The 2:10 at Hamilton has favourite odds of 5.5? If only! How on earth does this happen?

Everybody and his dog 'knows' this is going to be a high scoring game. Just the occasion when, because each team also know the dangers of their opponents attack, they will concentrate more on not giving anything away. For me it has all the hallmarks of a 0-0 at 90 minutes. Having said that, should a goal be scored in the first half, then the game profile changes and a hat-full is possible. But for me that doesn't make the odds of 23.0 available for 0-0 correct score (Skybet) a poor value bet, even if used as a small stake saver with whatever else you think may happen.

My winnings were predominantly from horse racing daily markets. I suppose my research allowed me a better idea of the outcomes. There are acquaintances who have won more money than I with spread betting and still have their accounts open. In my experience spread firms are much more tolerant than traditional bookies. For example I also had winning sports spread accounts with IGIndex, Spreadfair, City Index, etc., before they ceased operations, none of them were closed down. The 'good times' were up to about 3 years ago, at which time it appeared the spread firms' improved their analysis and my edge was eroding. I took a 1 year sabbatical, but 'missed' the buzz and have been active again for the past couple of years. Much reduced stakes now though, and far fewer opportunities, over this time I'm just over 12K in front, but it's an enjoyable hobby! Apologies. I always think of football betting on a game by game basis and individual matches.

True up to a point, so long as the winnings aren't going disproportionately to an individual. Accountant led management dictates the firm can do without winning punters. The only exception in my experience are the two UK based spread firms (NOT the Irish outfit who also only cater for losers) My winning accounts are still active after more than 20 years. Okay, every bet I place is 'referred to trader' and occasionally (rather than usually) my stake is restricted or the quote shifted ~ but never a hint of account closure (and my total winnings are into six-figures) Football is heavily analysed by possibly millions of people and consequently extremely difficult to crack. But like you it won't stop me trying either, I've not beaten the book over the long term, but I'm enjoying the research. "Focus on the journey, not the destination. Joy is found not in finishing an activity but in doing it."

Me too!

My final-game-of-season fears were realised, the goalfest in the Tottenham game (5-4) put paid to my attempt to recover losses by the season end. Today's reversal leaves my deficit at -89.55. However, given that I was trying to recover from disastrous mini performance losses of 539.55, these total goals & superiority spreads have served me well.

A 0-0 draw is the worst result to have when you're buying total goals, so today's two bets send me into a loss. 70 staked, 3W 4L, -16.00

No luck with today's result: 40 staked, 1W 3L, -11.50

A couple of slight reversals from today's two, but still in profit 30 pts staked, 1W 2L, profit 2pts Henan Jianye v Beijing Renhe kicks off 12:35 tomorrow.