Data

Coventry v Luton (X) 3.00 Barnsley v Sheff Wed (X) 3.40 Carlisle v Stockport (X) 3.10 £10 treble

if only Villa had not missed their penalty . . .

Liverpool v Aston Villa (2) 6.50 Nottm Forest v Arsenal (1) 5.00 £10 Double

Well, not a great example there. 21 points lost from 75 games! Such is life. Sticking with this idea though, still an overall profit from two full seasons. Onward & (hopefully) upward!

The final two columns are an attempt to indicate the teams who are more or less likely to throw up unexpected results. It is a rather crude & rudimentary device, I hope others will point out it's shortcomings, I do admit it doesn't seem to be of much help! It is calculated as follows; Using the home odds for each preceding game during the season. If the home side wins BOTH teams are awarded 1- (homeodds/1) Otherwise BOTH teams are awarded (homeodds/1) The figure in the columns are the average of each team to date, home team first, then away team. Leeds to win against Man City anyone? The machine thinks it's worthwhile !!? Bundesliga 20230505 1=2 A 1.67 4.4 5.8 Bayer Leverkusen v FC Koln A 232-255 -12 0.455 0.459 WIN @ 5.80 Bundesliga 20230505 2=3 A 1.74 4.2 5.36 Mainz v Schalke H 278-237 52 0.465 0.407 Premier League 20230506 3.6 3.64 2.25 Bournemouth v Chelsea H 294-226 79 0.387 0.45 Premier League 20230506 1.51 5.3 6.5 Liverpool v Brentford D 242-257 -4 0.448 0.487 Premier League 20230506 1.2 9.6 19 Manchester City v Leeds A 236-263 -16 0.27 0.468 Premier League 20230506 1.84 4.1 4.6 Tottenham v Crystal Palace A 226-259 -22 0.412 0.409 Premier League 20230506 3.15 3.4 2.55 Wolves v Aston Villa A 214-288 -63 0.443 0.444 Bundesliga 20230506 3.53 3.4 2.34 Augsburg v Union Berlin A 273-294 -10 0.447 0.478 Bundesliga 20230506 1.95 4.1 4.17 B. Monchengladbach v Bochum A 256-313 -46 0.526 0.432 Bundesliga 20230506 4.2 3.79 1.97 Freiburg v RB Leipzig H 276-236 51 0.412 0.414 Bundesliga 20230506 3.2 3.69 2.35 Hertha Berlin v Stuttgart H 213-217 7 0.393 0.442 Bundesliga 20230506 2.4 3.8 3.05 Hoffenheim v Eintracht Frank A 258-295 -26 0.448 0.463 Bundesliga 20230506 9.5 6.7 1.35 Werder Bremen v Bayern Munic H 249-239 21 0.458 0.378 Ligue 1 20230506 2.45 3.74 3.2 Lens v Marseille D 246-266 -9 0.376 0.35 Ligue 1 20230506 2.67 3.4 2.94 Nice v Rennes H 287-221 77 0.433 0.462 Ligue 1 20230506 3.55 3.98 2.12 Reims v Lille A 230-262 -21 0.433 0.411 Serie A 20230506 2.05 3.62 4.4 AC Milan v Lazio H 216-212 15 0.428 0.433 Serie A 20230506 3.3 3.3 2.55 AS Roma v Inter H 155-134 32 0.403 0.399 Serie A 20230506 2.43 3.51 3.2 Cremonese v Spezia A 198-246 -37 0.384 0.378 Premier League 20230507 2.5 3.95 2.88 Newcastle v Arsenal H 277-246 42 0.392 0.345 Premier League 20230507 3.6 3.9 2.13 West Ham v Manchester Utd A 208-245 -26 0.408 0.448 League One 20230507 3.65 3.8 2.1 Burton v MK Dons H 238-205 44 0.468 0.428 League One 20230507 2.7 3.75 2.61 Barnsley v Peterborough H 276-230 57 0.443 0.465 League One 20230507 3 3.6 2.49 Bristol Rovers v Bolton H 260-257 14 0.455 0.451 League One 20230507 1.47 4.7 8.5 Cambridge Utd v Forest Green H 240-111 140 0.452 0.408 League One 20230507 2.65 3.75 2.81 Cheltenham v Charlton H 273-235 49 0.457 0.461 League One 20230507 2.45 3.85 3.1 Exeter v Morecambe A 244-279 -24 0.459 0.427 League One 20230507 7.5 5.1 1.44 Fleetwood v Ipswich H 276-258 29 0.461 0.339 League One 20230507 2.11 3.75 3.8 Lincoln v Shrewsbury H 303-244 70 0.47 0.449 League One 20230507 1.6 4.5 6 Oxford Utd v Accrington H 224-220 15 0.464 0.42 League One 20230507 4.4 4.2 1.8 Port Vale v Plymouth A 205-276 -60 0.458 0.456 League One 20230507 2.1 3.85 3.48 Portsmouth v Wycombe H 260-251 20 0.433 0.484 League One 20230507 2.65 3.69 2.75 Sheffield Wed v Derby H 242-226 27 0.384 0.424 Bundesliga 20230507 1.55 5.3 6.3 Dortmund v Wolfsburg A 222-339 -106 0.403 0.444 Ligue 1 20230507 3.61 3.55 2.24 AC Ajaccio v Toulouse A 151-227 -65 0.393 0.431 Ligue 1 20230507 2.47 3.45 3.21 Auxerre v Clermont A 244-315 -60 0.397 0.452 Ligue 1 20230507 6.5 5.1 1.52 Angers v Monaco A 100-204 -93 0.37 0.399 Ligue 1 20230507 1.72 4.5 4.9 Lyon v Montpellier A 229-332 -92 0.453 0.416 Ligue 1 20230507 2.46 3.55 3.12 Lorient v Brest H 247-246 12 0.46 0.407 Ligue 1 20230507 2.92 3.5 2.65 Nantes v Strasbourg H 245-153 103 0.404 0.439 Ligue 1 20230507 9.5 6.5 1.36 Troyes v Paris SG H 227-185 53 0.374 0.311 Serie A 20230507 2.45 3.4 3.18 Atalanta v Juventus A 180-218 -27 0.409 0.418 Serie A 20230507 2.27 3.2 3.86 Lecce v Verona H 213-103 121 0.433 0.421 Serie A 20230507 1.92 3.91 4.33 Napoli v Fiorentina H 298-229 80 0.334 0.431 Serie A 20230507 2.05 3.45 4.3 Torino v Monza H 249-244 16 0.44 0.438 Premier League 20230508 1.4 5.5 9.2 Brighton v Everton H 259-255 15 0.446 0.446 Premier League 20230508 2.76 3.75 2.68 Fulham v Leicester H 291-240 62 0.414 0.415 Premier League 20230508 2.2 3.67 3.54 Nottingham v Southampton H 270-262 19 0.407 0.404 Championship 20230508 4.1 3.7 2.01 Birmingham v Sheffield Utd H 293-242 63 0.457 0.44 Championship 20230508 1.36 5.6 11 Burnley v Cardiff H 309-191 130 0.387 0.467 Championship 20230508 2.1 3.6 3.8 Huddersfield v Reading H 291-292 11 0.466 0.45 Championship 20230508 1.67 4.2 5.53 Luton v Hull H 273-271 14 0.441 0.474 Championship 20230508 2.56 3.72 2.96 Middlesbrough v Coventry H 275-270 17 0.479 0.458 Championship 20230508 1.95 3.86 4.07 Millwall v Blackburn H 267-254 25 0.493 0.512 Championship 20230508 1.57 4.75 6.5 Norwich v Blackpool D 192-210 -6 0.45 0.45 Championship 20230508 4 3.84 1.96 Preston v Sunderland H 254-254 12 0.458 0.464 Championship 20230508 2.45 3.66 3 QPR v Bristol City A 208-285 -65 0.479 0.472 Championship 20230508 3.2 3.72 2.36 Swansea v West Brom H 251-208 55 0.447 0.476 Championship 20230508 2.4 3.6 3.03 Watford v Stoke H 236-173 75 0.502 0.475 Championship 20230508 2.12 3.8 3.6 Wigan v Rotherham A 209-290 -69 0.434 0.475 League Two 20230508 2.01 3.6 4.2 Bradford City v Leyton Orien H 260-270 1 0.486 0.438 League Two 20230508 3.4 3.4 2.39 Barrow v Stevenage H 284-118 177 0.502 0.41 League Two 20230508 4 3.71 2.05 Colchester v Mansfield H 262-223 50 0.459 0.483 League Two 20230508 1.91 3.71 4.5 Grimsby v AFC Wimbledon A 208-257 -38 0.481 0.472 League Two 20230508 2.05 3.8 3.8 Harrogate v Rochdale H 258-122 147 0.472 0.456 League Two 20230508 1.67 4 5.75 Newport v Crewe A 101-274 -162 0.451 0.464 League Two 20230508 1.9 3.88 4.33 Swindon v Crawley A 252-277 -14 0.486 0.47 League Two 20230508 1.5 4.5 7.5 Salford v Gillingham H 239-202 48 0.479 0.47 League Two 20230508 1.2 7.5 18 Stockport County v Hartlepoo A 185-240 -44 0.453 0.427 League Two 20230508 3.4 3.45 2.26 Sutton v Carlisle A 124-276 -141 0.469 0.448 League Two 20230508 5.25 4 1.71 Tranmere v Northampton A 276-304 -17 0.49 0.442 League Two 20230508 1.81 3.79 5 Walsall v Doncaster D 255-274 -8 0.467 0.489 Serie A 20230508 2.35 3.35 3.85 Empoli v Salernitana H 231-234 8 0.454 0.434 Serie A 20230508 2.42 3.57 3.1 Sassuolo v Bologna A 242-265 -12 0.459 0.458 Serie A 20230508 1.55 4.5 7 Udinese v Sampdoria H 227-116 122 0.465 0.353

Further number crunching with this idea I've switched from maximising results to squeezing the best profits. Strike rates take a hit as would be expected, but overall the returns do show a slight improvement. Losing runs will be longer but the bitter pill sweetened somewhat by a smattering of juicy prices. What it churns out from two full seasons examining English leagues down to National League plus Sc Prem and major leagues from Germany, France, Italy & Spain is a remarkable (well it seems remarkable to me!) 6,418 bets showing a loss of just 4.09 points to average odds (at time of harvesting) Still looking for ways to home in on the best bets, but it appears that excluding some competitions might be of merit. Unsurprisingly I guess lower leagues prove the less reliable, eliminating English League 2 & National League would leave the method with a record of +78.94 from 4688 bets. Not enough to retire on, bet headed in the right direction. The first table below shows results from season 21-22. The second table is cumulative, i.e. the sum of BOTH seasons, up to last evening. 2021-22 season profit/loss 22.35 38.52 -12.47 -21.96 -8.28 -15.16 -27.34 -24.72 -13.15 21.91 ROI 9.59% 8.48% -4.21% -4.90% -1.86% -5.25% -6.67% -8.27% -7.56% 7.61% league Bundesliga Championship LaLiga League One League Two Ligue 1 National League Premier League Sco Premiership Serie A %winners 38.63% 42.51% 36.49% 40.40% 41.57% 33.56% 42.68% 36.79% 42.53% 38.19% This season profit/loss 18.85 57.83 7.04 -3.09 -44.49 10.45 -38.54 -16.91 -9.48 14.25 (including above) ROI 4.36% 6.48% 1.30% -0.35% -5.07% 1.94% -4.52% -3.05% -2.99% 2.67% league Bundesliga Championship LaLiga League One League Two Ligue 1 National League Premier League Sco Premiership Serie A %winners 37.96% 40.43% 38.82% 41.48% 38.77% 37.55% 42.56% 38.09% 43.85% 38.46%

Birmingham v Sheff Utd (1) 3.70 Norwich v Blackpool (X) 4.20 £10 Double

Doncaster v Colchester (2) 2.15 Blackburn v Luton (2) 3.20 £10 Double

Brentford v Aston Villa (2) 2.80 Ajaccio v Brest (2) 2.50 £10 Double

Grimsby v Mansfield (2) 2.62 Wolfsburg v Leverkusen (2) 2.45 £10 Double

Derby v Ipswich (2) 2.05 Monza v Lazio (2) 2.05 £10 Double

18/03/23 Bochum v RB Leipzig (2) 1.55 18/03/23 Sunderland v Luton (2) 2.60 £20.00 Double

My analysis for the weekend; (average odds from OddsPortal this morning) Bund 20230310 1.71 4.3 5.75 FC Koln v Bochum H Bund 20230311 1.88 4 4.44 Ein Fran v Stuttgar H Bund 20230311 2.99 3.62 2.52 Hertha v Mainz H Bund 20230311 1.46 5.4 7.8 RB Leipz v M'gladba H Bund 20230311 4.9 4.4 1.74 Schalke v Dortmund A Bund 20230311 1.16 12 22 Bayern M v Augsburg H Bund 20230312 3.45 4 2.2 Werder B v Leverkus A Bund 20230312 2.31 3.4 3.65 Wolfsbur v Union Be H Bund 20230312 2 3.86 4.1 Freiburg v Hoffenhe H

73 weekend fixtures found 36 correct, a positive return of +2.03. Over this series 218 correct from 464 games, a profit of +1.68. Or as stated earlier, round about half the picks correct and around break-even. That's all for the time being while I subject the method to further scrutiny.

An overabundance of draws in the 22 midweek games, not good for this prediction model, so a 2 point loss. Bund 20230303 2.33 3.9 3.2 Dortmund v RB Leipz H 293-272 31 1~0 Cham 20230303 3.39 3.32 2.38 Hull v West Bro A 215-309 -84 0~2 Conf 20230303 1.77 3.95 4.6 Southend v Barnet A 256-283 -17 1~3 Prem 20230304 1.83 4 4.76 Brighton v West Ham H 266-248 29 1~0 Prem 20230304 1.69 4.18 5.8 Chelsea v Leeds H 265-259 17 1~0 Prem 20230304 3.52 3.54 2.28 Wolves v Tottenha A 259-287 -17 0~1 Prem 20230304 2.79 3.52 2.78 Southamp v Leiceste D 236-250 -3 1~1 Prem 20230304 1.51 5.1 7.5 Man City v Newcastl H 336-324 23 2~1 Prem 20230304 1.25 7.1 15 Arsenal v Bournemo H 311-242 80 2~0 Prem 20230304 2.13 3.5 4.1 Aston Vi v Crystal H 271-266 16 1~0 Bund 20230304 2.44 3.55 3.16 Bochum v Schalke H 234-203 41 2~1 Bund 20230304 1.98 4 4.12 Mainz v Hoffenhe H 261-228 43 3~1 Bund 20230304 1.98 3.47 4.6 Union Be v FC Koln H 275-215 70 2~0 Bund 20230304 7.5 5.4 1.46 Stuttgar v Bayern M A 239-288 -39 0~2 Bund 20230304 2.4 3.7 3.09 Augsburg v Werder B A 220-256 -26 0~2 Bund 20230304 2.57 3.73 2.82 M'gladba v Freiburg A 230-266 -26 0~1 ScPr 20230304 1.18 7.94 18.1 Rangers v Kilmarno H 275-204 82 1~0 ScPr 20230304 2.6 3.25 3 Ross Cou v Motherwe H 206-194 23 1~0 ScPr 20230304 3.23 3.53 2.3 Dundee U v Aberdeen A 204-250 -35 0~1 ScPr 20230304 1.79 3.85 5 Hearts v St Johns H 252-227 36 3~2 ScPr 20230304 3.06 3.3 2.57 Livingst v Hibernia H 245-253 3 1~0 Cham 20230304 2.35 3.36 3.39 Cardiff v Bristol A 242-270 -18 0~1 Cham 20230304 6.63 4 1.62 Blackpoo v Burnley A 229-323 -84 0~1 Cham 20230304 3.41 3.3 2.35 Huddersf v Coventry A 244-263 -9 0~1 Cham 20230304 2.05 3.6 4.1 Luton v Swansea H 276-257 29 1~0 Cham 20230304 1.48 4.65 8 Middlesb v Reading H 267-252 25 1~0 Cham 20230304 2.64 3.35 3.03 Millwall v Norwich A 258-279 -11 0~1 Cham 20230304 2.94 3.4 2.62 Rotherha v QPR H 243-211 42 2~0 Cham 20230304 2.35 3.38 3.37 Sunderla v Stoke H 256-225 41 1~0 Cham 20230304 1.86 3.6 5.11 Watford v Preston H 338-311 37 2~0 Cham 20230304 2.42 3.2 3.45 Wigan v Birmingh A 170-244 -64 0~1 Cham 20230304 3.85 3.6 2.1 Blackbur v Sheffiel A 248-344 -86 0~1 Lg 1 20230304 2.35 3.4 3.35 Accringt v Forest G H 214-210 14 1~0 Lg 1 20230304 3.5 3.6 2.19 Bristol v Barnsley A 196-265 -59 1~2 Lg 1 20230304 3.68 3.52 2.11 Cambridg v Portsmou A 178-249 -61 0~2 Lg 1 20230304 2.55 3.35 3.06 Cheltenh v Fleetwoo H 200-207 3 1~0 Lg 1 20230304 1.68 3.97 6 Derby v Shrewsbu H 261-248 23 2~1 Lg 1 20230304 1.34 6 11 Ipswich v Burton H 271-247 34 2~1 Lg 1 20230304 2.7 3.34 2.8 Lincoln v Oxford H 242-195 57 1~0 Lg 1 20230304 2.03 3.79 4 Plymouth v Charlton H 287-258 39 1~0 Lg 1 20230304 2.05 3.5 4.15 Port Val v Milton K D 198-213 -5 0~0 Lg 1 20230304 1.8 4 5 Sheffiel v Peterbor H 281-246 45 1~0 Lg 1 20230304 2.1 3.5 3.86 Wycombe v Exeter H 252-238 24 1~0 Lg 1 20230304 5.5 3.84 1.73 Morecamb v Bolton A 194-255 -51 1~2 Lg 2 20230304 1.91 3.5 4.5 Bradford v Colchest H 333-224 119 1~0 Lg 2 20230304 1.93 3.66 5.28 Carlisle v Grimsby H 254-263 1 1~0 Lg 2 20230304 2.9 3.3 2.64 Harrogat v Gillingh A 221-249 -18 0~2 Lg 2 20230304 2.07 3.4 4.33 Leyton O v Swindon A 279-348 -59 1~2 Lg 2 20230304 1.53 4.3 7 Northamp v Crawley H 292-236 66 1~0 Lg 2 20230304 4.75 3.6 1.83 Rochdale v Stevenag A 173-275 -92 1~2 Lg 2 20230304 2.3 3.5 3.3 Salford v Newport H 314-221 103 1~0 Lg 2 20230304 1.67 3.75 6 Stockpor v Doncaste H 246-248 8 2~0 Lg 2 20230304 1.73 3.86 5.5 Sutton v Crewe H 257-234 33 2~1 Lg 2 20230304 1.83 3.8 4.75 Tranmere v Hartlepo H 230-198 42 1~0 Lg 2 20230304 2.25 3.2 3.8 Walsall v Barrow H 270-262 18 1~0 Lg 2 20230304 3.36 3.26 2.35 AFC Wimb v Mansfiel A 253-280 -17 0~1 Conf 20230304 2.25 3.65 3.3 Aldersho v Torquay H 229-197 42 1~0 Conf 20230304 5 4.1 1.7 Bromley v Notts Co A 258-292 -24 1~2 Conf 20230304 2.17 3.6 3.5 Dag and v York H 244-188 66 2~1 Conf 20230304 2.94 3.72 2.35 Dorking v Halifax A 208-239 -21 0~1 Conf 20230304 3.55 3.6 2.18 Gateshea v Chesterf A 208-274 -56 1~2 Conf 20230304 2.88 3.35 2.5 Oldham v Boreham A 243-272 -19 0~1 Conf 20230304 3.38 3.6 2.23 Scnuthor v Eastleig H 254-247 17 2~1 Conf 20230304 1.63 4.5 5 Solihull v Maidston H 245-191 64 3~0 Conf 20230304 2.9 3.59 2.4 Wealdsto v Altrinch H 248-250 8 3~1 Conf 20230304 4 3.5 2.03 Yeovil v Woking H 261-259 12 1~0 Conf 20230304 6 4.35 1.54 Maidenhe v Wrexham A 254-283 -19 1~2 Prem 20230305 2.83 3.22 2.95 Nott'm F v Everton H 255-238 28 1~0 Prem 20230305 2.5 3.9 2.95 Liverpoo v Man Unit A 251-333 -71 0~1 Bund 20230305 2.51 3.65 2.94 Wolfsbur v Ein Fran A 257-274 -7 1~3 Bund 20230305 1.59 4.6 6.13 Leverkus v Hertha H 279-237 52 1~0 ScPr 20230305 13 6.5 1.26 St Mirre v Celtic A 258-290 -21 0~1 Prem 20230306 2.06 3.78 3.88 Brentfor v Fulham A 272-298 -15 0~1 For the weekend . . .