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About cluelessG

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 04/01/70
  1. Tennis Tips - March 4 - March 10

    You say "just a personal appreciation" as if personal is something misleading or unreliable. Well, betting is all about probabilities, right? And I've read a few "definitions" of probability that say it's about our belief in the chances of an event happening. So yes, it's personal but it does not mean it's impractical or out of touch with reality or that it cannot be used to make predictions. Consider a simple question about the chances of landing heads or tails when tossing a fair coin: it assumes the coin is fair. It's all good and easy as a probability problem. But pick a random coin. How do you know, how can you be certain in its fairness? So it's always about assumptions and beliefs, not just about "objective facts". The way I understand it, in probability problems you always start with a model that describes the probability - and that model is your belief, it's not guaranteed to be a 100% description of objective reality. Then probability theory gives you powerful and objective tools that you can apply to the model and come up with predictions. But again, it's about applying "objective" tools/rules to a personal belief/model. Bookies have the advantage of using huge data sets to come up with the best probability model - their belief. But it's hardly a perfect model (they are happy as long as it works in the long term) and they still have to adjust the odds to balance their risk. I don't think they care whether the final odds are "objective" as long as they are guaranteed to make a profit.
  2. Tennis Tips - March 4 - March 10

    Sonya must be her nickname, even her website is and says: " Sofia Anna Kenin is 20 years old. Sofia or "Sonya", what people who are close to her call her ..."
  3. Premier League Predictions > Mar 2nd & 3rd

    I've placed a bet on Almiron to score against West Ham today. He looks very dangerous and odds looks great - 3.6 with bet365 and probably higher available with other bookies.
  4. Tennis Tips - February 25 - March 3

    Including the last point - a bit of an anti-climax for me but Rodionova was bitterly disappointed
  5. Premier League Predictions > Feb 26th & 27th

    Man City to win against West Ham looks certain now. Pellegrini has picked a 19-year old left back (it's his debut) and Andy Carrol starts in front. Carrol is useless, even though he might be extra motivated to score against city and help Liverpool. He can get sent off pretty easily though. On top of this, Noble is on the bench and Obiang starts. I see plenty of goals in this match, if City are up for it - even though Fabianski has been great this season.
  6. NHL 2018/2019 discussion

    The Flames won 2:1 - scoring 40 seconds before the end of the game. Brady Tkachuk scored for Ottawa, his brother had a goal disallowed for Calgary.
  7. NHL 2018/2019 discussion

    Calgary Flames to win in regulation time at Ottawa Senators - 1.625 with Pinnacle The Ottawa Senators have hit rock bottom - they just dealt two of their decent attacking players (Duchene and Dzingel) to Columbus and Mark Stone is expected to be dealt on Monday. These 3 players were pulled out of the squad on Thursday and since then the Senators have played two games, failing to score. Defence is not too bad but offence is gone. Morale is low. They have lost 3 in a row now. Calgary have won 4 games in a row and are top of the Western division. To make things more interesting, the Tkachuk brothers (Brady and Matt) are playing against each other in this match with a lot of their relatives in attendance.
  8. Challenger Bangkok Tiurnev to win against Kuzmanov - odds around 3.4 I looked at the odds for this match just because Kuzmanov played (and lost) against Robin Haase in Sofia last week. Haase is a in bad form (just lost in Rotterdam) and so must be Kuzmanov. I checked his record in 2019 - he has lost all 3 matches that he played. Apart from Haase, he played 2 players ranked around 540 (Artem Dubrivnyy and Manuel Guinard). Tiurnev's current rank is 540. He has won 4 and lost 2 matches this year. Already played a qualifier in Bangkok, so he has warmed up. Anything can happen in this match, so I expect there's some value in backing the underdog. I have not placed a bet yet, because I would normally use bet365 and they do not offer it for some reason.
  9. Premier League Predictions > Jan 29th & 30th

    Ok, Llorente is not that bad... missed his fair share of chances but finally scored when it mattered. He was a great striker... many years ago. I hope this goal brings his mojo back. I have a feeling that Bet365 just dropped the odds on Spurs to win the title from 51 to 41... tempting... but I'd rather put money on West Ham to get relegated at 401 ;-)
  10. Premier League Predictions > Jan 29th & 30th

    Two last-minute bets for me: Watford +1 AH at 1.88 Bet365 Spurs are a great team but they are performing better away from home that at Wembley. Kane and Dele are not available. Llorente is bad but Son is back. Watford are in a decent form and they can beat most teams on their day - they already won against Tottenham earlier this season. I expect a very tight match, the hosts may win after bringing Moura and Lamela on in the second half - but I don't think they will win it by more than a goal. Liverpool - Leicester - both teams to score at 2.0 Bet365 Liverpool had a great series of clean sheets at home earlier in the season. But key defenders are missing, Milner failed at right-back last time and we'll see how Wijnaldum will do in this position. Liverpool have conceded a goal in 3 of their last 4 home Premiership matches - against Man Utd, Arsenal and Crystal Palace. Leicester have failed to score in only one away match this season (at Crystal Palace) - won at Chelsea, scored at Arsenal, scored a late goal at Man Utd. Small stakes.
  11. Australian Open 2019

    The interesting thing about Serena's injury was that she was able to battle pretty decently when Pliskova was serving - she got a couple of break points (match points). Great serve returns, powerful shots. But Serena just could not serve - making a double fault in every game and she won only one or two points out of 13 or 14. Pliskova did step her game up though, so she deserved to win. Serena's injury unlocked a door for Karolina and she pushed through that door with all the power and skills she had. For neutral tennis fans it was great to watch.
  12. Premier League Predictions > Jan 12th - 14th

    It's a long shot, but I am placing a small bet on Man Utd to win from behind against the Spurs - odds 13 with bet365. Both team are in a great shape, but United had the benefit of playing against lower-ranked opponents, so we don't know how good they are yet. Spurs are very impressive and they have a very good chance of taking the lead today. But they have been busy recently, they don't have the largest squad and they looked tired in the second half against Chelsea. United's bench looks better to me (Lukaku, Mata, Fred) than the Spurs' bench. So United should be able to push back in the second half and a draw or even a win (assuming they are not 3:0 down at half-time). Another option is to bet on Spurs to score first and if they do that - place a bet on United to get something from the match.
  13. FA Cup Predictions > Jan 4th - 7th

    I just read that Hull City have made 8 changes to their starting lineup while Millwall have only made 2. So despite Hull's excellent form, I am going for the home win - odds slightly above evens.
  14. I have not watched the match either but read that Andreescu had back problems in her previous match as well... and apparently she took a medical break in the second set against Wozniacki. It's probably the same sacroiliac joint issue that forced her to pull out of a couple of tournaments last season. She has been troubled by a cold in the past 3 weeks but she must be used to it by now.
  15. Premier League Predictions > Jan 1st - 3rd

    Glenn Murray to score against West Ham - odds 2.75 at bet365 He loves scoring against the Hammers, whose defence is leaky this season. Zabaleta is back in the starting lineup, so it's an improvement in comparison with the lineup against Burnley. Fabianski has been fantastic in goal but he can't save them all. West Ham are tired and Brighton had an extra day of rest. Murray only played 15 minutes against Everton so he will be fresh today. A side bet - both teams to score - 1.84 at pinnacle. I believe there's value in the away win at odds of 4.2 - Brighton are poor away but they have won 2 matches this season already (that's 2 out of 10) and West Ham have lost 50% of their home matches (5 out of 10).