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About cluelessG

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  • Birthday 04/01/1970

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  1. It's a very tricky match. As you said - Lanzini, Anderson, Hernandez and Arnie could easily cause plenty of headaches for Chelsea. That's if Arnie can be bothered to play. Perhaps playing against Chelsea on a Monday night with a huge potential TV audience can give him some motivation. On the other hand, I can't see the Hammers parking the bus today - none of the 4 players above can be relied upon for defensive duties. So West Ham may turn up with 4 players in attack and 7 players in defense and hardly anyone in midfield. And Chelsea can boss the midfield against most Premier League teams anyway. So West Ham somehow managed to get a scoreless draw against Chelsea at home but I don't see that repeating again today. I will place a small bet on Both Teams Top Score (odds around evens) even though Chelsea are good at keeping clean sheets at home and West Ham are not prolific away at top teams (scored against early-season Arsenal but failed to do so at Liverpool and Man City). There's definitely no value in the odds for home win though. I do think Chelsea will win but I'd rather take the "home win and BTTS" at odds around 3 with pinnacle.
  2. And of course now Amine Ahouda will go on to beat Grigelis...
  3. Kosovo might be playing at a full stadium but its capacity is less than 13 000, right? Bulgaria are not just a weak away team, they are generally weak both at home and away but get more points at home than away. Not sure why. As you said, last time it was due to a fake penalty. Perhaps Kosovo will get a bit of help from the referees today ;-) Whether this match is of huge significance for Bulgaria is up for debate. Somehow I don't think they care too much and for sure they are more interested in playing against England, for example. I was very impressed by Kosovo's results in the friendly Nations League but they played teams below Bulgaria's level. They may win today but I don't have enough info to make an informed decision so no bet for me.
  4. Two bets for me: Treble: Poland, Belgium and England to win - combined odds around 1.8 Poland started well against Austria and should win easily against Latvia. The guests are poor. Belgium is a very strong team and I expect them to win in Cyprus, even though the hosts tend to over-perform at home. England should be too strong for Montenegro, who played well in Bulgaria and had a few decent chances on counter-attacks and conceded a goal from of a non-existent penalty. But Montenegro could not handle well the pressure from Bulgaria so they will be in trouble against England, who are on a different level. Slovenia - North Macedonia - both teams to score, odds around 2.1 Slovenia are not known for keeping clean sheets and neither are their opponents. The Macedonians have scored in their last few matches so I don't see them parking the bus and playing for a 0:0.
  5. Evtimov probably needs to show that he has been called to the national team for a certain percentage of their games - I know at some point that helped with getting a "work permit" in UK. Bulgaria has a few goalies that are much better than him. But they normally call 2 of them and add Evtimov as a 3-rd choice keeper. I believe one of the other goalies (Iliev) got injured this week so if anything happens to Mihaylov now - Evtimov might actually get to play against Kosovo.
  6. You say "just a personal appreciation" as if personal is something misleading or unreliable. Well, betting is all about probabilities, right? And I've read a few "definitions" of probability that say it's about our belief in the chances of an event happening. So yes, it's personal but it does not mean it's impractical or out of touch with reality or that it cannot be used to make predictions. Consider a simple question about the chances of landing heads or tails when tossing a fair coin: it assumes the coin is fair. It's all good and easy as a probability problem. But pick a random coin. How do you know, how can you be certain in its fairness? So it's always about assumptions and beliefs, not just about "objective facts". The way I understand it, in probability problems you always start with a model that describes the probability - and that model is your belief, it's not guaranteed to be a 100% description of objective reality. Then probability theory gives you powerful and objective tools that you can apply to the model and come up with predictions. But again, it's about applying "objective" tools/rules to a personal belief/model. Bookies have the advantage of using huge data sets to come up with the best probability model - their belief. But it's hardly a perfect model (they are happy as long as it works in the long term) and they still have to adjust the odds to balance their risk. I don't think they care whether the final odds are "objective" as long as they are guaranteed to make a profit.
  7. Sonya must be her nickname, even her website is and says: " Sofia Anna Kenin is 20 years old. Sofia or "Sonya", what people who are close to her call her ..."
  8. I've placed a bet on Almiron to score against West Ham today. He looks very dangerous and odds looks great - 3.6 with bet365 and probably higher available with other bookies.
  9. Including the last point - a bit of an anti-climax for me but Rodionova was bitterly disappointed
  10. Man City to win against West Ham looks certain now. Pellegrini has picked a 19-year old left back (it's his debut) and Andy Carrol starts in front. Carrol is useless, even though he might be extra motivated to score against city and help Liverpool. He can get sent off pretty easily though. On top of this, Noble is on the bench and Obiang starts. I see plenty of goals in this match, if City are up for it - even though Fabianski has been great this season.
  11. The Flames won 2:1 - scoring 40 seconds before the end of the game. Brady Tkachuk scored for Ottawa, his brother had a goal disallowed for Calgary.
  12. Calgary Flames to win in regulation time at Ottawa Senators - 1.625 with Pinnacle The Ottawa Senators have hit rock bottom - they just dealt two of their decent attacking players (Duchene and Dzingel) to Columbus and Mark Stone is expected to be dealt on Monday. These 3 players were pulled out of the squad on Thursday and since then the Senators have played two games, failing to score. Defence is not too bad but offence is gone. Morale is low. They have lost 3 in a row now. Calgary have won 4 games in a row and are top of the Western division. To make things more interesting, the Tkachuk brothers (Brady and Matt) are playing against each other in this match with a lot of their relatives in attendance.
  13. Challenger Bangkok Tiurnev to win against Kuzmanov - odds around 3.4 I looked at the odds for this match just because Kuzmanov played (and lost) against Robin Haase in Sofia last week. Haase is a in bad form (just lost in Rotterdam) and so must be Kuzmanov. I checked his record in 2019 - he has lost all 3 matches that he played. Apart from Haase, he played 2 players ranked around 540 (Artem Dubrivnyy and Manuel Guinard). Tiurnev's current rank is 540. He has won 4 and lost 2 matches this year. Already played a qualifier in Bangkok, so he has warmed up. Anything can happen in this match, so I expect there's some value in backing the underdog. I have not placed a bet yet, because I would normally use bet365 and they do not offer it for some reason.
  14. Ok, Llorente is not that bad... missed his fair share of chances but finally scored when it mattered. He was a great striker... many years ago. I hope this goal brings his mojo back. I have a feeling that Bet365 just dropped the odds on Spurs to win the title from 51 to 41... tempting... but I'd rather put money on West Ham to get relegated at 401 ;-)
  15. Two last-minute bets for me: Watford +1 AH at 1.88 Bet365 Spurs are a great team but they are performing better away from home that at Wembley. Kane and Dele are not available. Llorente is bad but Son is back. Watford are in a decent form and they can beat most teams on their day - they already won against Tottenham earlier this season. I expect a very tight match, the hosts may win after bringing Moura and Lamela on in the second half - but I don't think they will win it by more than a goal. Liverpool - Leicester - both teams to score at 2.0 Bet365 Liverpool had a great series of clean sheets at home earlier in the season. But key defenders are missing, Milner failed at right-back last time and we'll see how Wijnaldum will do in this position. Liverpool have conceded a goal in 3 of their last 4 home Premiership matches - against Man Utd, Arsenal and Crystal Palace. Leicester have failed to score in only one away match this season (at Crystal Palace) - won at Chelsea, scored at Arsenal, scored a late goal at Man Utd. Small stakes.