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About cluelessG

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 04/01/1970

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  1. North Macedonia - Turkey I'm placing a bet on North Macedonia +2.5 sets at 1.787 with Pinnacle. They played well yesterday and won a set against Finland, a site that's not weaker than Turkey. And they were consistent - fought in each set, got 23, 22 and 21 points in the sets they lost. Turkey had a tough match yesterday but managed to win a set against Russia (lost the other sets to 13, 17 and 15 points though).
  2. Just realized odds for Andreescu to win against Serena were 2.59 a month ago in Toronto. Huge difference.
  3. What makes it even worse is that West Ham failed to bring in any new defenders for the new season. While they constantly suffer from issues with the left fullback position. And Zabaleta is not getting younger, so can't help that much on the right side. That being said, it's the same defence that got a clean sheet at Tottenham, got a 1:1 at home against Liverpool, lost only 0:1 visiting Man City, beat Arsenal 1:0 at home and got a 0:0 draw against Chelsea at home. And the same defence allowed Huddersfield to score 3 goals at the London stadium. For the record, Watford beat the Hammers away 2:0 last December and then lost 1:4 to them at home in May (Watford were poor in May). The more motivated team will win today, just not sure which team that is.
  4. I'm taking 2.58 for Andreescu to win with Pinnacle. I feel odds are just about right, no big value. But there just too many things I can't overlook - Andreescu has a great record against top players, she's playing at home, she's feeling well (said shoulder does not trouble her; her coach said her thigh is just tight, no injury), she was rusty during the first two matches but she got much better in the next matches, she is very tough mentally and enjoys challenges and her dreams are coming true this year. And the pressure must be on Serena. Not an easy match for Williams.
  5. A few people mentioned Gojowczyk yesterday. I believe he offers good value today as well. I took him to win a set at 1.9 with Bet365 earlier, now it's up to 2.00. H2H shows that he managed to win a set in each of the previous two matches played (both of hem on hard court too). A word of caution: in both matches he won the first set and then Edmund easily won the next two sets. So there might have been an element of surprise... and now Edmund might be better prepared. But Gojowczyk seems to be on a roll so odds look good to me.
  6. @Torque I read your post last week - now that Dimitrov has started a proper "winning streak" (needed 2 tie-breaks to eliminate Steve Johnson), he's of course an even stronger favourite against Guido Pella. I got 2.36 for Pella to win with Pinnacle.
  7. I am considering betting on Steve Johnson to win against Grigor Dimitrov (odds 2.23 at Pinnacle). I have not seen Johnson play in a while and I have no idea what sort of form he's in... but Dimitrov is struggling big time. Johnson won a couple of matches at Wimbledon and then lost narrowly to Eubanks at Newport (grass) two weeks ago. He should be well rested. H2H - Dimitrov has won 4 matches (3 on hard court), Johnson has 2 wins (1 on hard court). Dimitrov will start winning again at some point, just not sure he should be priced as a favorite today.
  8. It's a very tricky match. As you said - Lanzini, Anderson, Hernandez and Arnie could easily cause plenty of headaches for Chelsea. That's if Arnie can be bothered to play. Perhaps playing against Chelsea on a Monday night with a huge potential TV audience can give him some motivation. On the other hand, I can't see the Hammers parking the bus today - none of the 4 players above can be relied upon for defensive duties. So West Ham may turn up with 4 players in attack and 7 players in defense and hardly anyone in midfield. And Chelsea can boss the midfield against most Premier League teams anyway. So West Ham somehow managed to get a scoreless draw against Chelsea at home but I don't see that repeating again today. I will place a small bet on Both Teams Top Score (odds around evens) even though Chelsea are good at keeping clean sheets at home and West Ham are not prolific away at top teams (scored against early-season Arsenal but failed to do so at Liverpool and Man City). There's definitely no value in the odds for home win though. I do think Chelsea will win but I'd rather take the "home win and BTTS" at odds around 3 with pinnacle.
  9. And of course now Amine Ahouda will go on to beat Grigelis...
  10. Kosovo might be playing at a full stadium but its capacity is less than 13 000, right? Bulgaria are not just a weak away team, they are generally weak both at home and away but get more points at home than away. Not sure why. As you said, last time it was due to a fake penalty. Perhaps Kosovo will get a bit of help from the referees today ;-) Whether this match is of huge significance for Bulgaria is up for debate. Somehow I don't think they care too much and for sure they are more interested in playing against England, for example. I was very impressed by Kosovo's results in the friendly Nations League but they played teams below Bulgaria's level. They may win today but I don't have enough info to make an informed decision so no bet for me.
  11. Two bets for me: Treble: Poland, Belgium and England to win - combined odds around 1.8 Poland started well against Austria and should win easily against Latvia. The guests are poor. Belgium is a very strong team and I expect them to win in Cyprus, even though the hosts tend to over-perform at home. England should be too strong for Montenegro, who played well in Bulgaria and had a few decent chances on counter-attacks and conceded a goal from of a non-existent penalty. But Montenegro could not handle well the pressure from Bulgaria so they will be in trouble against England, who are on a different level. Slovenia - North Macedonia - both teams to score, odds around 2.1 Slovenia are not known for keeping clean sheets and neither are their opponents. The Macedonians have scored in their last few matches so I don't see them parking the bus and playing for a 0:0.
  12. Evtimov probably needs to show that he has been called to the national team for a certain percentage of their games - I know at some point that helped with getting a "work permit" in UK. Bulgaria has a few goalies that are much better than him. But they normally call 2 of them and add Evtimov as a 3-rd choice keeper. I believe one of the other goalies (Iliev) got injured this week so if anything happens to Mihaylov now - Evtimov might actually get to play against Kosovo.
  13. You say "just a personal appreciation" as if personal is something misleading or unreliable. Well, betting is all about probabilities, right? And I've read a few "definitions" of probability that say it's about our belief in the chances of an event happening. So yes, it's personal but it does not mean it's impractical or out of touch with reality or that it cannot be used to make predictions. Consider a simple question about the chances of landing heads or tails when tossing a fair coin: it assumes the coin is fair. It's all good and easy as a probability problem. But pick a random coin. How do you know, how can you be certain in its fairness? So it's always about assumptions and beliefs, not just about "objective facts". The way I understand it, in probability problems you always start with a model that describes the probability - and that model is your belief, it's not guaranteed to be a 100% description of objective reality. Then probability theory gives you powerful and objective tools that you can apply to the model and come up with predictions. But again, it's about applying "objective" tools/rules to a personal belief/model. Bookies have the advantage of using huge data sets to come up with the best probability model - their belief. But it's hardly a perfect model (they are happy as long as it works in the long term) and they still have to adjust the odds to balance their risk. I don't think they care whether the final odds are "objective" as long as they are guaranteed to make a profit.
  14. Sonya must be her nickname, even her website is and says: " Sofia Anna Kenin is 20 years old. Sofia or "Sonya", what people who are close to her call her ..."
  15. I've placed a bet on Almiron to score against West Ham today. He looks very dangerous and odds looks great - 3.6 with bet365 and probably higher available with other bookies.