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About cluelessG

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 04/01/70
  1. NHL 2018/2019 discussion

    I am sorry that I could not reply - I have turned all notifications off. But I think "keep the stakes small" shows my confidence - mainly because I know very little about hockey and can't be bothered to watch the games. Tampa Bay Lightning delivered the goods as expected - 4 goals. The Senators went into overdrive, scored 5 and added another one in the final minute (I assume at an empty net). It was a weird match - Ottawa took a 2-0 lead, Tampa Bay turned it around to 2-4 and then Ottawa woke up to finish in style: 6-4
  2. Premier League Predictions > Nov 10th & 11th

    I am considering a bet on Chelsea to win and both teams to score at 2.87 with pinnacle. Chelsea have been excellent in keeping clean sheets way from home in EPL (4 clean sheets in 5 matches, against mid and lower table teams) but they have only managed 1 clean sheet in 6 home matches. It's hardly a surprise that Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United managed to score... but Crystal Palace and Cardiff also got a goal, only Bournemouth failed to score (but they were busy defending for a 0-0 until 72th minute, I suspect). Everton have managed to score in 4 of their 5 away matches, only failed to hit the target at Arsenal (and that's worrying me, since it was Arsenal's first clean sheet this season). Richarlison can certainly score against any defence and he's in a good form right now. So looking at the numbers, it's more likely that Everton will score and bookies are offering slightly higher odds too! That being said, most of my big bets have been failing for a while now, so if I place a bet I fully expect Chelsea to win to nil or Everton to get a result ;-)
  3. NHL 2018/2019 discussion

    Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning - over 6 goals, odds around 1.86 (pinnacle, bet365) The Senators were expected to have a miserable season, both on the ice (lost a few key players) and off it (poor sales of season tickets, low attendance, fans not happy with the owner, many issues with the new arena project...). So far they have struggled in defence but at least their offense has been delivering on most nights. Their overall record is W6 L7 OL3 and their last 8 matches have registered at least 6 goals. In their last two away matches they only scored 1 and 2 goals, but they have scored at least 3 goals in each of their away games before that. I don't know much about Tampa Bay but they have scored at least 4 goals in their last 4 matches (2 at home, 2 away) and their last 3 matches had at least 6 goals. So I believe they should find it easy to put at least 3-4 pucks in the Senators' net while Ottawa should score at least 2. Since I don't really follow NHL or ice hockey, I will keep the stakes small. But on paper there's a lot of value in the odds!
  4. Europa League Predictions > Nov 8th

    I have a feeling that Bayer Leverkusen have underestimated their opponents Zurich, even though they got beaten 2 weeks ago. They are not starting their best attacking players while Zurich are staring their best players. So I will take Zurich +1.5 at odds around 1.9... expecting Zurich to stay level (or take the lead) until half-time. At half-time I will think about hedging the bet, since Leverkusen do have the options to turn this game around with substitutions in the second half. But even a 1-goal home win would work well for my bet!
  5. Europa League Predictions > Nov 8th

    Vorskla Poltava - Qarabag 1 - odds 2.75 with bet365 I've placed a bet on the home win. Vorskla already won at Qarabag, even though they played defensively and Qarabag created more chances (but shots on goal were 1 each). Admittedly, Vorskla were lucky to win as Qarabag's goalie should have saved that goal. So that away win might be a bit misleading - and that explains the great odds for the home win. Vorskla are in a decent form in their home league, they lost badly at Arsenal (no shame in that), played decently against Sporting at home (leading 1:0 until the 90-th minute and then conceded 2 goals). I am hoping they will perform even better with home advantage today. Qarabag are not getting results, struggling in Europa League but also in their home league. Plus their away record in Europe is poor (8 losses in 9 matches). They have lost all hope to qualify from the EL groups (after 3 losses in their first 3 matches). So not a lot of extra motivation (but I am sure they would love to beat Vorskla today). So, the home win is not a certainty but for me it's a good value at these odds. I am also expecting few goals.
  6. I found them at bet365
  7. EFL Cup Predictions > Oct 30th - Nov 1st

    I'm placing a small bet on Man City to win by 2 goals or 3 goals (odds 4.33 and 4.75 at bet365). I don't trust the Fulham defence and I don't think they can stop City from scoring 2-3 goals. In the meantime I hope that City will take the match seriously and allow Fulham to score 1 goal at the most. Starting with Kompany and Stones in defence is a good sign for me. Small stakes, just for fun.
  8. EFL Cup Predictions > Oct 30th - Nov 1st

    I was looking at a similar bet - both Chelsea and Derby to score at odds around evens. For some reason Chelsea have conceded more goals at home than away and they will likely rest some regular starters tonight. Derby certainly look capable to score. And I will wait for the lineups (and subs) to be announced before i place any further bets tonight.
  9. Europa League Predictions > Oct 25th

    RB Leipzig - Celtic - home win and both teams to score Leipzig have left some of their starts on the bench (e.g. Poulsen, Werner) so the may have underestimated Celtic. Leipzig had a terrible first half against Salzburg so I am hoping they will allow Celtic to score. Then in the second half I expect them to turn the match around and get a 2:1 or 3:1 win. Odds 2.85 with pinnacle and around 2.65 with bet365.
  10. Europa League Predictions > Oct 25th

    Qarabag - Vorskla Under 2.5 goals Qarabag have failed to score in their two EL group matches so far. They are generally performing much better at home that away... but they are not prolific goal-scorers. Vorskla were destroyed at Arsenal but were leading 1:0 at home against Sporting until the 90-th minute when they managed to concede 2 goals and lost the match. I believe these two teams are at a similar level so I am expecting a tight match without too many goal-scoring opportunities. I am placing a small bet on under 2.5 goals, odds around 1.6
  11. Non-League Predictions > October 20th

    I don't know much about the teams at this level of English football, but I've taken Fylde DNB against Chesterfield - mostly based on Fylde's impressive home record. Odds for home win is 2.25 at pinnacle (2.2 at bet365) which looks great to me, but I had to cover the draw.
  12. I've placed a medium bet on Kosovo NOT to keep a clean sheet at the Faroe Islands (i.e. Faroe Island to score). Odds at bet365 is 1.8 which looks like value to me since the home team has scored in 4 of their last 6 home matches. And these matches were against a similar-level opposition - Andorra, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Malta, Azerbaijan. Moreover, the Faroes failed to score against Azerbaijan 3 days ago but they had a few chances (even hit the post) and they must be extra motivated to score today. They are always looking for opportunities to shoot from a long range or headers in the penalty box. They are under no pressure to win so they could either try to score or go for a 0-0 draw. Kosovo managed to keep a clean sheet in Azerbaijan in September (and in Albania in May), it's time for them to concede a goal away from home.
  13. Europa League Predictions > Oct 4th

    I have a feeling that money is flowing the other way - to Salzburg. If Celtic try to attack and leave spaces at the back - they might be in for a humiliating loss. Salzburg looked very lively at under-strength Leipzig two weeks ago.
  14. Europa League Predictions > Oct 4th

    Anderlecht - Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo had a great first match in their EL group and their domestic form is pretty good too. Anderlecht somehow managed to lose at Spartak Trnava, despite having a few decent chances. The Belgians are sitting 3rd in their domestic league, a few points behind Brugge and Genk already, having scored only 2 goals in their last 5 matches. I've taken AH +0 on Dinamo Zagreb, I believe they are generally at the same level as Anderlecht and the mini-crisis at Anderlecht may cancel the advantage of playing at home (and they might be pressure for the home side to win to keep chances of progressing from the EL group). Odds 2.35 at pinnacle, 2.3 at bet365.
  15. Europa League Predictions > Oct 4th

    In other news, Kolasinac has miraculously jumped from your injury list to a place in the starting lineup today ;-) Good luck with your bet - apart from Ramsey and Aubameyang, you did a good job on the predicted starting lineup!