cluelessG

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About cluelessG

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 04/01/70
  1. Premier League Predictions > Jan 12th - 14th

    It's a long shot, but I am placing a small bet on Man Utd to win from behind against the Spurs - odds 13 with bet365. Both team are in a great shape, but United had the benefit of playing against lower-ranked opponents, so we don't know how good they are yet. Spurs are very impressive and they have a very good chance of taking the lead today. But they have been busy recently, they don't have the largest squad and they looked tired in the second half against Chelsea. United's bench looks better to me (Lukaku, Mata, Fred) than the Spurs' bench. So United should be able to push back in the second half and a draw or even a win (assuming they are not 3:0 down at half-time). Another option is to bet on Spurs to score first and if they do that - place a bet on United to get something from the match.
  2. FA Cup Predictions > Jan 4th - 7th

    I just read that Hull City have made 8 changes to their starting lineup while Millwall have only made 2. So despite Hull's excellent form, I am going for the home win - odds slightly above evens.
  3. I have not watched the match either but read that Andreescu had back problems in her previous match as well... and apparently she took a medical break in the second set against Wozniacki. It's probably the same sacroiliac joint issue that forced her to pull out of a couple of tournaments last season. She has been troubled by a cold in the past 3 weeks but she must be used to it by now.
  4. Premier League Predictions > Jan 1st - 3rd

    Glenn Murray to score against West Ham - odds 2.75 at bet365 He loves scoring against the Hammers, whose defence is leaky this season. Zabaleta is back in the starting lineup, so it's an improvement in comparison with the lineup against Burnley. Fabianski has been fantastic in goal but he can't save them all. West Ham are tired and Brighton had an extra day of rest. Murray only played 15 minutes against Everton so he will be fresh today. A side bet - both teams to score - 1.84 at pinnacle. I believe there's value in the away win at odds of 4.2 - Brighton are poor away but they have won 2 matches this season already (that's 2 out of 10) and West Ham have lost 50% of their home matches (5 out of 10).
  5. Barcelona - Tottenham Spurs in great form and all the motivation... Barcelona with a great home record in CL and Messi on the bench... I just have to try these: Tottenham to lead at HT / Barcelona to win FT (Leo Messi to turn it around for the hosts) and Barcelona to lead at HT / Tottenham to win FT (Lucas Moura the hero for Spurs and Messi stays on the bench) Odds of 21-23 for each bet BTTS seems inevitable so we may get some value even with odds of 1.4
  6. NHL 2018/2019 discussion

    The Bruins won 2:1 - but needed overtime. So the bet was a push. Ottawa's goalie Mike McKenna was the best player in the game, apparently. That's two good results in a row for the Senators. There's a big difference between these two games (both ended with 3 goals, including overtime) and the previous high-scoring matches - I will look into betting on Under 6 (or 5.5) in Ottawa's matches next week.
  7. NHL 2018/2019 discussion

    Boston Bruins at Ottawa Senators - Bruins to win in regulation time at 1.58 with pinnacle Boston without a few important players like Bergeron and Chara. They lost 3 of their last 4 games but destroyed high-flying Toronto yesterday (6-3). Ottawa lost both matches against Montreal but pulled a miraculous home win in overtime against the Pittsburgh Penguins yesterday (1:1). Senators' goalie Craig Anderson played a big role in this. But today Ottawa will use Mike McKenna instead (that's the 3rd game he will start this season) so that should help Boston. The Senator's offence has been severely weakened since Thursday - they lost Matt Duchene and Bobby Ryan (that explains yesterday's 1:1 from a team whose matches usually involve at least 6 goals). On top of this, the teams already met two times this season and Boston won both matches convincingly.
  8. Premier League Predictions > Dec 4th & 5th

    Well, with Cardiff "fighting until the bitter end in each game" and West Ham's makeshift defence, the Cardiff to score bet was never in doubt - even though I had to patiently wait until the 94th minute to collect ;-) Truth be told, Antonio came up with a big block and another intervention in the last 5 minutes to prevent a goal, so he has not forgotten hid old right-back days. But leave it to Carrol (who's a bit taller than his opponent Gunnarsson) and the otherwise excellent Fabianski (who forgot that he's allowed to use his hands) to fail to clear a last-minute corner. Not as spectacular as Pickford's performance on Sunday, but good enough for my bet. Not sure about Cardiff (I have a feeling they came to London for their Christmas shopping), but it was a typical West Ham performance - goals from Perez (who've barely played this season, even when on the pitch) and Antonio (a season of poor performances and missed half-chances, so far) and keeping a clean sheet for 90 minutes with 3 regular defenders missing and despite their main striker gifting a penalty to the opponent.
  9. NHL 2018/2019 discussion

    Ottawa Senators at Montreal Canadiens - Ottawa to win in regulation time at 2.95 with pinnacle Montreal had a poor game against the Sharks on Sunday, they have now won only 1 of their last 7 matches. Ottawa did not play on Sunday and the trip to Montreal only takes a couple of hours. They have won 3 in a row now (they had lost 4 in a row before that). So why are they priced 2.95 to win in Montreal? I guess it's because of their poor away record and because the Canadiens will be desperate to win. Still, I see value in the odds - it could go either way. Note that Montreal will visit Ottawa on Thursday, so we get another chance to bet on this match.
  10. Premier League Predictions > Dec 4th & 5th

    So, West Ham are starting with a highly unusual combination of "defenders" - Antonio, Ogbonna, Diop and Masuaku (Balbuena with a dead-leg problem and Zabaleta being rested before facing Zaha on the weekend - both on the bench). I know Cardiff are not prolific scorers (especially away from home) but this is a golden chance and the only hope for West Ham is for Fabianski to have another solid performance (I am impressed with him) and come up with a few miracle saves. I've taken Cardiff to score at 1.58 at pinnacle with a medium stake. I hope Cardiff do not decide to set back and play for 0-0 - at least their starting lineup does not suggest that.
  11. Premier League Predictions > Dec 4th & 5th

    I see value in laying West Ham today. Odds for home win are around 1.66, so Cardiff +0.5 can be found at around 2.4. I am waiting for starting lineups to be announced, but quite a few changes are expected for West Ham, especially in defence where Cresswell, Balbuena and Zabaleta might miss the match. It's not like the Hammers have any decent replacements for them, so Cardiff might find it easier to score than expected.
  12. NHL 2018/2019 discussion

    San Jose Sharks at Montreal Canadiens - Canadiens to win at 1.99 with pinnacle I am taking Montreal to win in regulation (bet void in case of draw) - they just snapped a bad streak of 5 losses, winning convincingly at home against the NY Rangers. 4 of these losses were close (2 OT losses, 2 single-goal losses) and Shea Weber's return worked well for the team. This is the last game in a long road trip for San Jose - they lost in Vegas, Buffalo, Toronto and Ottawa. So things are not going well for them and I have a feeling they can't wait to get back home. I believe their next home game will be more important for them than this one. There's talk among the Canadiens now to take it one game at a time and try to push for a play-off spot, so they should be motivated in front of a noisy home crowd. I was expecting odds around 1.8, so I will gladly take 1.99.
  13. Serbia - Lithuania Under 3.25 goals, odds 1.9 with Bet365 Lithuania have scored only 2 goals in 5 matches in the Nations league, they failed to score away in Montenegro and Romania and they failed to score at home against Serbia. So it's likely that they will not score today. They have nothing to play for either. Serbia are doing much better, scored 7 goals in 5 matches, including 2 goals in each of they home matches against Romania and Montenegro. The weather in Belgrade is poor, raining and cold - not exactly encouraging Serbia to score too many goals. So I expect Serbia to get a 2:0 win - and even a 3:0 or 2:1 win will bring us profit. Small stakes, this is Nations league.
  14. NHL 2018/2019 discussion

    I am sorry that I could not reply - I have turned all notifications off. But I think "keep the stakes small" shows my confidence - mainly because I know very little about hockey and can't be bothered to watch the games. Tampa Bay Lightning delivered the goods as expected - 4 goals. The Senators went into overdrive, scored 5 and added another one in the final minute (I assume at an empty net). It was a weird match - Ottawa took a 2-0 lead, Tampa Bay turned it around to 2-4 and then Ottawa woke up to finish in style: 6-4
  15. Premier League Predictions > Nov 10th & 11th

    I am considering a bet on Chelsea to win and both teams to score at 2.87 with pinnacle. Chelsea have been excellent in keeping clean sheets way from home in EPL (4 clean sheets in 5 matches, against mid and lower table teams) but they have only managed 1 clean sheet in 6 home matches. It's hardly a surprise that Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United managed to score... but Crystal Palace and Cardiff also got a goal, only Bournemouth failed to score (but they were busy defending for a 0-0 until 72th minute, I suspect). Everton have managed to score in 4 of their 5 away matches, only failed to hit the target at Arsenal (and that's worrying me, since it was Arsenal's first clean sheet this season). Richarlison can certainly score against any defence and he's in a good form right now. So looking at the numbers, it's more likely that Everton will score and bookies are offering slightly higher odds too! That being said, most of my big bets have been failing for a while now, so if I place a bet I fully expect Chelsea to win to nil or Everton to get a result ;-)