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thfc last won the day on December 21 2018

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  1. I actually fancy Newcastle +1 (2.05 betfred) for this one. Wolves are a team who play well against the big 6, but have let themselves down against the lower half teams. Losing at home to Huddersfield takes some doing this season! I remember watching that game and the result didn't flatter Huddersfield either. Wolves have also struggled against Shrewsbury in the cup over two games recently, so I think they have a real problem motivating the players for games against lesser teams. Whether Newcastle are a lesser team is debatable, but they are only outside the relegation zone on goal difference so at least in terms of league position they are a lesser team. However, they are tough to beat and have the new record signing available (and a further 4-5 players back from injury) and things actually seem to be relatively positive with them at the moment. I watched them against spurs last weekend and they were unlucky to lose. Wolves have nothing to play for in the league. They won't get top 6, they will finish 7th-9th. Wolves should be going for the FA cup given some of the big teams have gone out and either Chelsea or Man U will go out in the next round. Newcastle have every motivation to try and get something from the game. This is exactly the sort of fixture Wolves have not turned up for this season, and therefore I fancy Newcastle to make a decent game of this and end up with at least a draw.
  2. @StevieDay1983Suspect you don't mind being on the wrong end of your prediction in this one! Cardiff have a fighting chance of survival now, I wouldn't know who to pick at the moment to fill the third relegation spot.
  3. @StevieDay1983 I'm not pro Cardiff, just going with them based on the prices. Other than when they play Huddersfield, Southampton shouldn't be odds on to anyone in the PL at the moment in my view so have to take them on.
  4. Hate to say it, but Arsenal are going to get some of my money this week! 1.64 against Huddersfield is bigger than I thought they would be- Man U are the same price at Fulham, and spurs are only slightly bigger to beat Leicester at home. Of those 3 prices, I think Arsenal have the best chance of winning their match. I'd have them around 1.5 so I see some small value in their price. I know Arsenal are not the best away from home, but Huddersfield seem to have given up, and if Arsenal can't win this one then they really are going to pick up some stick!
  5. @StevieDay1983 I'm a bit surprised you don't back your team a bit more in this one. Saints are in my opinion massively underpriced for this one, and on the prices I wanted to give Cardiff a shot. Yes I know Cardiff are poor away, but I don't think that justifies Southampton's price being as short as it is. Saints have improved but they do draw a lot, and have drawn their last two against other relegation threatened teams. I'd have Southampton above evens for this, and couldn't touch them at around 1.8. Cardiff +1 is at 2.15 (bet365) and i'm going to put a small stake on that.
  6. FWIW I agree with @StevieDay1983 in that I think Cardiff are capable of getting something out of the game. Bournemouth are not a team to be backing at short odds, especially away from home. I'm not tempted to back Cardiff though. I'm thinking Burnley Southampton X- reasoning similar to my midweek pick of Saints to draw with Palace. Both teams are of similar ability and both will be happy enough with a point to keep them above the bottom 3. I also like the look of Wolves away to Everton. Everton haven't improved this season and have been in poor form for a team of their supposed calibre. Wolves are back in form and I think are the better team. I don't think Wolves lose this so going to back Wolves DNB at 2.35. Leicester to get a result against Man Utd also tempts me as Leicester have picked up some good results against the top 6 both home and away this season. They seem to struggle when playing the lesser teams but have beaten Man City and Chelsea, and just drew with Liverpool so can clearly give anyone a game. That said, I thought Leicester might be a bit bigger price than they are. If they drift over 4, i'll look to back them with a +1 handicap.
  7. Don't waste your money on spurs winning the title- not going to happen this season, and i'm a spurs fan saying that! Still got to go away to Liverpool, Man City and Chelsea and I can't see spurs winning at either Liverpool or City for sure. Most spurs fans will be happy with a top 4 finish and hope to push on once the stadium is finally sorted.
  8. Quite like the look of Bournemouth +1 and Southampton/Palace to draw on Wednesday night. Chelsea are hot and cold. I watched them against Arsenal and they were really poor. Bournemouth are not Arsenal, but are well rested and capable of at least getting a draw out of this one. Wilson to Chelsea looked a possibility earlier in January but seems to have gone cold now, so wouldn't put it past him to score in this one, if he is fit enough to play. Bournemouth have also signed a few players in January to freshen up the squad, though of course Chelsea have Higuain now. Even so, I don't think Chelsea should be as short as they are, and therefore Bournemouth +1 is definitely worth taking in my view. Southampton have picked up since Hassenhuttl took over, and are also well rested. Palace only played on Sunday but have been playing well of late. I think this is a game you could argue a case for any outcome, but both teams seem to be similarly matched, and therefore a draw seems the most likely outcome IMO.
  9. Spurs are favourites at Palace. Not sure what sort of team Palace are going to put out, but spurs injury problems are well documented and they have a short turnaround from the Chelsea game tonight. Instinct is Palace have a good chance in this one even if they do weaken down a bit.
  10. Spurs have slipped back to around 1.7 and for me that is not big enough to back them. As @neilovan says, Kane and Son will be big misses, although I still think spurs are more than capable of winning this one against a poor Fulham who concede goals for fun. Llorente will provide a focal point up front, and should be supported by Alli and Eriksen and I think that front 3 are still better than what most PL teams will have put out against Fulham. Fulham have only won 3 PL games all season, while spurs have won 10 out of 12 away, so the gulf in class is massive. Yes spurs lack a replacement for Kane, but teams like Chelsea seem to be able to beat lesser opposition without a decent striking option, and I see no reason why spurs shouldn't be able to do the same today. But I wanted at least 1.9 before I put my money where my mouth is! I'm going to follow @StevieDay1983 and his Man City on the handicap instead. I think 4-0 minimum so going with the -2 handicap also.
  11. Crystal Palace as big as 18 to win at Liverpool. They beat Man City not so long ago away from home at similar odds... Palace have been a bit of a bogey side for Liverpool, with the infamous 3-3 draw a few years ago, and Palace have actually won at Anfield 3 out of the last 5 PL fixtures. I doubt there is another PL team with that good a recent record in going to Liverpool and getting a result. Saying that, I don't expect Palace to win, but I think the price is too big. For perspective, Brighton (similar ability to Palace IMO) are only 13s to win at Man Utd with their well known terrible away form. I don't think i'm brave enough to take a punt on Palace outright, but maybe on a +2 handicap, as I can seem them keeping it competitive.
  12. Spurs are out to 1.8 which is obviously down to the loss of Kane and to a lesser extent Son. If the price continues to drift a little closer to evens, i'll be on spurs to win this. Basic reasoning being, spurs are in great form away from home and don't need Kane and/or Son to be on the pitch to beat Fulham, who managed to lose last week despite Burnley having 0 shots on target! @StevieDay1983, i'm surprised you are so down on Cardiff in this one. Newcastle not good at home, and taken to extra time in midweek so that might even out the tiredness factor a bit? I agree with @Mindfulness that Cardiff have a good chance of getting something out of this one and quite like the double chance price of 1.91.
  13. Tempted by Brighton +1.5 against Liverpool at 1.99 (BetVictor). Basically because Brighton are good at home and can at least be competitive against Liverpool. Liverpool should win, but hopefully not by a big margin, so hopefully Brighton can cover the handicap. Burnley at 2.4 look a big price to me. Fulham can't be trusted away from home, and even lost at home to Oldham in the cup which must have been demoralising, even with a changed team. Burnley looking a bit more like the team of last year and given Fulham can't keep goals out I think Burnley are a great bet based on their recent upturn in form. I also think Southampton are capable of getting something against Leicester, who are hit and miss. They remind me a bit of Wolves, i.e. turn up and play against the big teams, and lose at home to Cardiff (and Newport in the cup). Saints are slowly improving, holding Chelsea to a 0-0 draw in their last PL away game, and I think they can get a draw out of this one (3.5 Betfred). I don't know what to think about the spurs man utd game. Spurs looked knackered in the second half against Chelsea while Utd were sunning themselves in Dubai, though maybe they won't be match sharp, at least initially? Spurs haven't lost at home to Utd in the league since 2012 so have a strong recent record against them, even before Poch came in. Gun to head, i'd say a score draw for this one, but I have more fancied bets in the other games so leaving my own team alone this week.
  14. @StevieDay1983 since your post spurs have been pushed out bigtime to around 2.5 now. Has anyone seen anything team news wise to justify Spurs price moving out this far? I have no idea why the price has moved so much as I haven't seen any negative team news from the club. I'd expect a strong side from both teams as i'm sure Sarri would love to win a trophy in his first season. I think i'm right in saying he has never won a trophy before, same as Poch so he must be motivated to go for it having got this far. I thought spurs were a good bet at 2.10, but at 2.55 (bet365) i'm definitely backing them strongly. Chelsea were well beaten by spurs as recently as November, the 3-1 score flattered Chelsea. I think spurs will go all out to try and build up a decent lead in the home tie before the return fixture in a few weeks. Other than Hazard, most of Chelsea's attacking players are not in great form, and obviously spurs are scoring goals for fun at the moment, albeit against lesser opposition than Chelsea. Son to score at 3.3 anytime (unibet) also looks good. He scored a wonder goal against Chelsea in November, and has been scoring goals almost every game since. He has this game and then Man Utd at the weekend before he is off to the Asian games so i'm sure he will play in both games, and hopefully keep up his good scoring run after a slow start to the season.
  15. And I also fancy Wolves to beat Liverpool on Monday. Wolves up their game against the bigger clubs, and are well placed in the league to have a real go at the FA cup. Liverpool are sure to rotate their squad, and this is clearly their lowest priority of the three competitions they are still in. I don't expect the recent 2-0 Liverpool win against wolves to have a bearing on this match, as I imagine at least 6-7 of Liverpool's first team players that played in that game will be rested. Liverpool have a recent history of struggling in the FA Cup, including a loss to Wolves at home in the 2016/17 season. They also were held to draws by Exeter and Plymouth away from home in recent years, and last year managed to lose at home to West Brom. Klopp doesn't appear to take the cup seriously, so I think Wolves are worth a go at 4.5 (Bet365).