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thfc last won the day on December 3 2019

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About thfc

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  • Birthday 08/01/1980

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  1. I'm going to go against most of you as I just don't fancy Leeds at those prices. Two newly promoted teams, and no real home advantage with the lack of fans. I wouldn't want to be on Leeds at 1.66 which seems to be the best price at the moment. They managed to lose in the cup to at home to Hull midweek, while Fulham managed a 1-0 win at Ipswich. I know Leeds probably didn't care about the cup, but even so, you'd expect them to beat a Hull team (who also probably didn't care) who have just been relegated to league 1. Fulham +1 at 2.38 with Betfair with a low stake is my bet on this game. Agree with @neilovan about Palace being a banana skin match for Man U. Again i'm on the away side with a +1 handicap for this one at 3.5 with paddy power. Reasoning is this is Man Utd's first game since the europa league exit, whereas Palace have a game under their belts and I thought were impressive in their game against Southampton last week. Admittedly they managed to lose to Bournemouth on penalties in the week, but I assume weren't fussed about the game. Palace won this game last season, and have a habit of winning away at the bigger teams. Finally, going with Newcastle again who did the business for me last week. The bookies have Newcastle as only slight favourites which seems wrong given Newcastle finished well above Brighton last season, and have strengthened the team well IMO for this season. Brighton still lack a proven goalscorer, and had to play on Thursday so two days less rest than Newcastle. Newcastle at 2.8 is a great price all things considered.
  2. It's certainly a subjective topic. The BBC have today published an article about Liverpool's title defence not being straight forward (, and part of their reasoning for this is they won't have the crowd to support them so clearly there is a school of thought that home advantage will be weakened. Will be interesting to see how Leeds get on against them at the weekend at long odds.
  3. With the football season about to kick off (in England anyway), I was interested in people's thoughts about whether the lack of crowds at football games is going to negate the normal advantage that is deemed to be given to the home team? If you are a lower to middle PL team, going to a top 4 or 6 team must be a lot less threatening without a crowd on your back so perhaps they have a better chance of winning/drawing than if the stadium were full? I guess i'm asking if you're going to be more tempted to take on the bigger teams when at home at long odds on, given the away team won't be subject to a hostile atmosphere, no pressure on the referee from the crowd etc. Thinking primarily in the PL as that's what I know best, but the same argument can be made for any league, as it doesn't look like we'll be getting 100% full stadiums anytime soon.
  4. I can certainly see the logic of going with the price play on this one, and agree the odds do seem skewed to make this a good pick. That said, I find it hard to see spurs finishing as high as third, as certainly Chelsea look good candidates to push on, and I hate to say it but Arsenal are also looking stronger than they have for some time. There is still no backup striker for Kane, so he will have to stay fit all season, and the defence will have to be a lot better than last year if spurs are going to manage a top 3 finish. I think we'll see a tighter battle at the top this season as I expect both Liverpool and Man City to regress a little in terms of the number of points they get. In fact, i'd go as far as to say I think there is a good chance they won't finish 1 and 2, as I can see either Chelsea or Man Utd beating at least one of them over the course of the season. Whatever happens, I just hope the top 4 or 6 clubs are much closer to each other than we've had over the last few seasons.
  5. I'm definitely on Newcastle at 3.5 to beat West Ham. Newcastle look to have recruited quite well over the summer, whereas West Ham unless i've missed it haven't signed anyone as yet, plus they lost a highly rated player (to West Brom of all teams) which seemed to upset some of the West Ham players. There seems to be some discontent in the West Ham camp and they just don't seem to be a team who are going to do anything other than be knocking around the relegation zone this season. Newcastle on the other hand I can see being somewhere around 10-13th as they were last season. Betting on the first week of the season is always a bit tricky but I like the price on Newcastle and think they have the better squad so going to put some faith in them. Other thoughts are West Brom to beat Leicester- largely based on how Leicester ended last season and West Brom having some momentum from being promoted. And i'm not sure why Wolves are such big favourites away at Sheff Utd. No result would surprise me in this game, so definitely some value in the price of the home team IMO.
  6. Be interesting to see what happens from here. Don't think there's much chance we will actually get back underway in April. China's league is still shutdown and their main outbreak was in January. They are saying the peak is 12-14 weeks away in the UK, so could be months before anything starts up again. If I was a Liverpool fan i'd be seriously concerned that this season might be voided. As a spurs fan, that outcome would be fine for me! I hope lower league clubs are able to survive without any gate income for the next few weeks. Be a real shame if one or more go out of business over this. Guess this place is going to be pretty quiet for a few weeks so hope everyone stays fit and well and hopefully we'll be back soon.
  7. 🤮. Wenger used to say that finishing in the top 4 was a trophy so if you accept that logic I think you'll find spurs have 'won' quite a few trophies recently! An early away goal would make things interesting given Leipzig have never been in this position before and might start feeling the nerves. They really should have won the first leg with plenty to spare, so I'm just hoping for another Ajax style miracle. I doubt it's gonna happen though, so can see why you've gone for Leipzig.
  8. spurs are marginal favourites at Burnley which doesn't seem right based on current form. The game against Norwich was diabolical, and Burnley are in good form themselves, though they did let me down last week when I was on them to beat Newcastle. Burnley are well rested, while spurs have well documented injury problems and playing 120 minutes on Wednesday even with a slightly rotated side isn't going to have helped. I don't think the Burnley price is massive value but i'd have them as favourites to win. Aston Villa +1 on the Monday game is my only other fancy. Leicester at around 1.4 are way too short based on current form and I've had a bit of success opposing Leicester recently, with Norwich managing the win last time out. These teams met in the semi-final of the carabao cup, and villa got a draw at Leicester in the first leg, and obviously prevailed overall in the tie with a home win. Leicester did win 4-1 at Villa in the league, but this came during their good spell when Vardy was in form and not injured. Without him, they are struggling for form, and even if he is back for this one, he won't be at his best. Villa or the draw at 3s is good enough for me to have a go on.
  9. Looks quite a tough set of fixtures to me. Palace maybe a touch big at over 4s but I can't really pick them with any confidence as they aren't reliable for goals. Surprised also to see Saints as favourites at West Ham as was thinking of going with them, but can't have them as favourites to win away. I like Burnley at 3s to beat Newcastle, who have been disappointing in recent fixtures, whereas Burnley have been on a good run, including winning their last 2 PL away games at Man U and Southampton. Newcastle don't concede many at home which is a bit of a concern, but they also don't score many either. If Burnley score once that might well be enough to win this one, and there is certainly nothing to fear going to St James Park at the moment so Burnley seem a good shout to me.
  10. @StevieDay1983 I actually thought the price on Leicester was a bit too short considering their form has been average for quite some time now. I'd say if Vardy scores then Leicester will win as their downturn in form has coincided with his goal drought so maybe combine your bet for a bigger price? Saying that, i'm going against you to side with Norwich +1 at evens as I don't think this will be as easy for Leicester as the prices imply. Norwich have done well against the bigger teams at home (the famous Man City win, plus draws with spurs and arsenal), and they did give Liverpool a pretty good game in their last home game.
  11. I don't know so much about the championship so maybe someone with better knowledge of the division can tell me why are Bristol City at such a big price? They are only 3 points behind Leeds, and it is well documented that Leeds form is not so good for the past couple of months now, whereas Bristol City are generally in good form. I know the championship is a division where anyone can beat anyone, so taking recent form into account, surely Bristol City have a better chance of winning this one than the odds imply? 9s just seems a massive price.
  12. I strongly fancy spurs to beat Villa and odds of around 1.9 to do so are quite appealing. Spurs have an excellent record against Villa over the last decade or so (haven't lost at Villa Park since 2008), and I think now the squad is finally a bit more settled and getting used to Mourinho's way of playing. With the break, the players should be well rested, and will be looking to get into form ahead of the CL game against Leipzig on Wednesday. Villa let in goals for fun, and even though Kane is still missing, spurs front players have more than enough to grab a few goals here. I'm going to be a bit greedy and go for spurs to lead at half time and win at full time at 3s, as this is the first game in a long time that I've really fancied Spurs chances of winning the game. Also, honestly, this is not my anti-arsenal bias, but how Arsenal can be priced at 1.4 is beyond me. This has surely been priced up on reputation from past seasons. They've only won 6 of 25 PL games all season. Newcastle are level on points with Arsenal and have won one more PL game than Arsenal. Newcastle +1 can be had for 2.87 and that seems a good price for what based on the league table appears to be two fairly equally matched teams.
  13. Meh, no fixtures of real interest here. Man City should batter West Ham, but they aren't taking all their chances, and you have to get to -3 on the handicap to get to odds against which might be a bit much. Then again Man City always batter West Ham and this could well be the weekend they get back on track and score a few. In the last 7 games between these two (going back to 2017), the Man City -3 would have won 4 out of those 7. Given the slim pickings in the PL this week, i'll take a leap of faith in Man City having their shooting boots on, and will go for Man City -3 at 3.1 (Paddy Power). Also thinking of taking Bournemouth +1 at around 2.15. I'm wary of taking on Sheffield, but I think they are priced a bit too short to win. Sheff United obviously having a great season, but they have done better away from home than they have at home, with more points won away than at home. Saying that, their home form is hardly terrible. Bournemouth just seem to be one of those teams that lose a few in a row, then go on a winning (or not losing) run for a few games. They have won their last two PL games, and are getting some players back from injury, so I just wonder if they are now going to go on a bit of an unbeaten run to pull clear of the relegation zone.
  14. Yep the all important odds. I tend to use decimal odds from oddschecker. Decimal odds include your stake so 12s is 11/1 (i.e. for every £1 you stake, you get £11 back). Basically I was saying Southampton are too short in the market at 12s (or 11/1). If they had been higher (16/1 or bigger) then I was going to take them on the +1 handicap, which is the same as saying Southampton will either win or draw the game.
  15. I was considering backing Southampton +1 to get something at Liverpool. Main reasoning being Saints are good away from home, and are rested, whereas Liverpool have had a midweek game and maybe are already looking forward to their mid season break. They aren't going to win every game this season, so it's just a matter of trying to catch them when they don't win. But at odds of around 12s i'll pass, as I was expecting at least 15s, maybe 20s for Saints outright. For context, Palace were 29s a couple of weeks back at Man City, i'm not sure why Saints are as short as they are. I will play spurs +1 on the handicap at around 2.4 though. Again, spurs are well rested for this one, whereas Man City had a midweek game to contend with. City are a bit hit and miss this season, and certainly aren't on the same level as the past two seasons. I don't think they will be fully motivated for the remainder of the PL games this season, as long as they do enough along the way to get in the top 4. Spurs have more to play for in that sense and need to close the gap on Chelsea. Yes Kane is injured, but there is a better feeling about the club with Eriksen and Rose gone, and new signings gedson and bergwijn in, plus lo celso signing permanently is also a big positive. Spurs were competitive at home to Liverpool recently, and were perhaps unlucky not to draw so have nothing to fear taking on Man City. We've also done well against them in recent games if you include knocking them out of the CL last season, and fluking a 2-2 draw at City very early this season. Man City have only kept 4 PL clean sheets this season, and spurs only 3, so BTTS seems highly likely. I'd disagree with @StevieDay1983 and say over 3.5 goals at around 2.3 would be another play in this game.