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thfc last won the day on December 3

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  1. Surprised to see Crystal Palace above 3s for the Watford game. Watford are yet to win at home, and only have the one win all season. Still no manager either. Palace are well organised and I think they should be shorter for this game so I see some value in Palace at around 3.2. I know they have some personnel missing in defence, but they are playing Watford so hardly the most dangerous attacking team! Palace have also had an extra day of rest for this game. Going to also tip spurs to win and both teams to score which can be had for 2.9 (coral). The reasoning being that spurs defence has been struggling, conceding 2 goals in all four games since Mourinho came in. I'm not entirely confident spurs will win and they are definitely not value at 1.4 to win outright. However, Burnley have wobbled in their last two games, and defensively seem to be struggling more than normal so if spurs do win I can't see it being to nil the way the team are playing. And finally, going to give Aston Villa +1 a go at just below evens. Leicester aren't going to keep winning every game, and I think this is a tough game. Villa gave Liverpool a good game a couple of weeks back and were unlucky not to draw, and also got a deserved draw at Man U last weekend, though they were poor against Chelsea in midweek. Leicester were perhaps a bit lucky to beat Everton, and had to rely on a dodgy penalty and 95th minute goal to beat Watford so perhaps there are signs they aren't playing quite as well as results would suggest. I don't think it would be a surprise if this ended in a draw, or even if Aston Villa were to win, so i'm happy to lay Leicester in this game.
  2. Man U and spurs are both around the 2.7 price which are quite attractive prices if you fancy either team to win, but i'm backing the draw at 3.5 (William hill). Yes spurs have won the past 3 games since Mourinho came in, but the opposition have all had their chances to take something from the game. Mourinho may set up with his famous 'park the bus/do not lose' approach, but the defence is still a mess, so I can certainly see Man Utd scoring at least once. Man U of course are nothing special right now but are generally solid at home (beaten Leicester, draws with Liverpool and Arsenal), and I just don't trust spurs to be able to go to a big 6 club and win. I'll also be going with Aston Villa +2 at around evens (betfred). The reasoning essentially being that if West Ham can go and win at Stamford Bridge, Aston Villa are more than capable of getting a result as well. I was tempted by Villa on the outright price, but I've ultimately decided to play it safe and keep a 1 goal Chelsea victory on my side. If Chelsea do win, I don't see it being a thrashing so I fancy this bet quite strongly.
  3. Spurs are favourites to beat Man U at Old Trafford! Never thought i'd see the day. It would certainly be ironic if a Mourinho led spurs won this game, leading to OGS being sacked and replaced by Poch!
  4. 6 home PL teams are odds on in their matches this week. You just know at least one of them is going to fail to win and ruin an acca bet! I'd say spurs and Chelsea look the safest bets to win. The Chelsea/Spurs to win double comes in at around 1.8 which I will have a small interest in. I have a funny feeling that Brighton could get something at Liverpool who keep winning but haven't looked convincing for a few games, and were flat in what I saw of their CL game in midweek. Not brave enough to put any money on it though! I also wouldn't be surprised if Leicester didn't win (they have to stop winning sooner or later), and perhaps Villa will also be capable of getting something at Man U.
  5. The only one I really like this weekend is Burnley at 2.3 (Ladbrokes) to beat Palace. Burnley are having a good season and come into this off the back of two successive 3-0 wins against Watford and West Ham. They are a good all round team with a decent keeper, defence and Barnes and Wood upfront are proving a reliable forward line. Palace are not a massive step up in class from either of those teams IMO, and appear to be trending down from a good start to the season as they have lost the past three games (admittedly all against 3 of the current top 4), and haven't won in 5 games. For me they are a solid team, but they don't have a decent striker and so aren't exactly prolific in front of goal. I'd have Burnley closer to even money given home advantage so at 2.3 I think there is some value in their price.
  6. @StevieDay1983At the prices I can't disagree that West Ham are probably the value in this match. Spurs should not be odds on away from home in any PL match right now. Not betting on this game but I quite fancy the draw for this game. Mourinho won't want to lose his first game, and West Ham are in no form at all. I can see this being a poor game of football that could quite easily be 0-0. It will certainly be interesting to see if spurs up their game now that Poch has gone. Personally, I think Eriksen and the entire defence want away from the club so I don't expect an improvement from them just because of the new manager. On the manager situation, I think Levy had no choice but to remove Poch the way this season has gone, as he has clearly done all he can with spurs. The situation reminds me of when Poch himself replaced Nigel Adkins at Southampton who was doing a good job at the time, but the board wanted more, and Poch proved to be an inspired managerial appointment for them who moved them up the table. While Poch did a great job for spurs and i'm sad to see him go, i'm hoping Mourinho can move the club to the next level and deliver a trophy or two before the inevitable falling out with the club that will come along in a couple of years based on his past.
  7. Ederson is also confirmed out which is massive considering Claudio Bravo is the replacement keeper. How Man City were favourites to win this game when they haven't won at Anfield since 2003 and Liverpool are strong at home is beyond me. Now Ederson is out the price has slightly dropped on Liverpool and drifted on City, but they are still pretty much the same price as each other which makes no sense to me. Therefore fully agree that Liverpool to win is the play in this game.
  8. @StevieDay1983I think a lot of people will fancy Leicester to win this one and why would I want to argue with someone who is predicting Arsenal are going to lose! I was hoping for a bigger price on Leicester though.
  9. @StevieDay1983 you are braver than me picking a team in that game. That said, Watford are somehow favourites to win despite being away and not winning this season, which instinctively doesn't feel right to me. I'd probably go for the draw rather than a Norwich win though. I'm taking a small stake in the draw in Chelsea-Crystal Palace at 5.7, and also a bigger stake on Palace +2 at 1.91 (coral). Chelsea have been in good form, but most of their recent good form has been away from home. They were 4-1 down to Ajax in midweek and although they clawed it back they were definitely aided by the two sendings off for Ajax. Before that they lost to Man U at home, albeit not with the entire first 11 playing. Earlier in the season, they drew with Leicester and Sheff United at home (having lead in both games) so I don't think their home form is as good as their away form. Palace are always worth a chance when away against a big team. They were the last team to win in the PL at Anfield, and have also beaten Man City and Man U in recent times away. They have had a week of rest and I can see them getting a result here. Probably not the win, but I think they are capable of the draw. I don't see Palace losing by a large margin so the +2 handicap at near evens seems like good value to me.
  10. It was Red Star rather than Ajax and they don't travel well so although a 5-0 win is always great, the level of the opposition needs to be taken into account. I wish it was Ajax we'd beaten 5-0! I've been a spurs fan for over 30 years so know we have been overachieving the past 5 seasons or so the crisis we are going through at the moment has to be put into perspective. I can't say i'm overly optimistic for spurs this season. The entire back 4 (aurier, vertonghen, alderweireld and rose) all wanted to leave over the summer but are still first team regulars. Ditto Eriksen in midfield who has been rubbish all season and clearly has his eyes on a move elsewhere. Basically, the team needs a massive refresh (defense especially) and until that happens, I think spurs will struggle to keep a clean sheet and therefore won't be winning as many games as they have been over the last few seasons. I hope one or two can be shipped out in January and replaced, but it may have to wait until next summer for a proper refresh. All that being said, I still think spurs are a good bet this weekend, but that's just as much down to Everton's problems.
  11. I'm also taking a bit of a punt on my team (spurs) winning at Everton. Spurs are slight favourites around 2.6 to win the game (Everton 2.8). Last season they were around 2.2 and I remember confidently backing them. They won 6-2. Spurs have an excellent record against Everton and haven't lost away at Goodison Park since 2012. If there is an away game where spurs can look to turn their form around, I think this could be the one. This season, the away form is not so good, and hasn't been for a while. However, it should be pointed out spurs have had a very tough start to the season for away fixtures, having already played Man City, Liverpool, Arsenal and Leicester away (2 draws, 2 losses). The loss to Brighton was much worse, although Everton have just gone to Brighton and also lost. The main reason for the punt is more down to Everton's form. Silva always seems to be 1 game away from the sack, and while they won in the cup midweek, spurs have had a week of rest to recover. Before that, Everton lost at Brighton, and their general form has been disappointing all season, losing 4 PL games in a row not so long ago, including a home loss to Sheffield United. They still suffer for not having a decent recognised striker otherwise I think they would be doing a lot better. This is definitely a speculative punt so low stakes, but the price is just about good enough for me to back my own team, taking into account a weeks rest and a good record against Everton. Both teams are in poor overall form, but for me spurs have the cutting edge in attack which i'm hoping will make a difference here.
  12. Wolves +1 is my main fancy this week. Wolves always up their game against the big six, and won at Man City only a couple of weeks ago. Arsenal are in a state of disarray (as usual) and the atmosphere at the club seems to be turning a bit toxic like in the last of Wenger's days with the club. Crystal Palace managed to get a draw at the Emirates last week even though they were 2-0 down after 10 minutes. This seems to be a good time for a team to be playing Arsenal, especially as they managed to lose the cup game to Liverpool in midweek in heartbreaking fashion. I don't fully trust Wolves to get the win, but I think they are more than capable of getting at least a draw so happy to take them +1 at just over evens (various).
  13. As sajtion says, this looks a very tough set of fixtures to call. I don't have any bets in mind just yet, but my early lean is to back Sheff Utd on a +1 handicap (they are unbeaten away from home) and West Ham are up and down (down based on their last two PL results). Sheffield are also coming off a great win against Arsenal on Monday so won't have any fear going to West Ham. Burnley could also be worth backing, again perhaps with a handicap as this is the kind of game I can see Chelsea's kids struggling in (i.e. a physical battle in an old fashioned ground- nothing like what most of them will have been brought up with!). Chelsea have won six in a row in all competitions, but I think this is a game where that run will end and Burnley will get at least a draw. My gut instinct says Man U should not be odds on away from home to any other PL team at the moment, even Norwich! But I don't know what to make of Norwich at the moment (they busted everyone in this forum last weekend by getting a 0-0 draw at Bournemouth) so will probably leave this one alone. Palace are always worth a look when away from home to a big club, but I was expecting a bigger price than 7s. They were 11/1 last week at home! I really want more than 7s to give them a try, but they always pop up every season with a surprise away win somewhere, and this could be a good time to be playing Arsenal after a short week for them (played Monday and again tonight in the EL). Will see how Arsenal get on tonight before making a decision on this one.
  14. You can probably add spurs to that list too the way we are going. Hoping the international break came at a good time for my team
  15. Liking the look of some of the longer odds this weekend. West Ham at 4s must have a good chance of adding to Everton's misery. They have won two of the last 4 PL games at Everton, and that was when Everton were stronger and West Ham weaker than the current teams. Everton have lost their last 4 PL games, including two home defeats so are in no great form at all. West Ham are a bit inconsistent, but have a goal threat. These two teams should be much closer in price than they are for me, so West Ham are definitely a value pick for me this weekend. I can see Burnley making life hard for Leicester and think Burnley +1 at 2.45 is a fair price for this one. Burnley have been solid all season, and have only lost to Arsenal (unlucky to lose) and Liverpool (fair enough). There is a lot of hype about Leicester but they are only two points ahead of Burnley, and I don't think there is all that much between the two teams. Burnley will be tough to break down and have a goal threat of their own so I don't think Leicester at long odds on holds any appeal. Going to also go with Palace +2 vs Man City at just over evens (bet365). City don't seem to be performing to the same level as last season and Palace tend to keep things tight. Again, there is only two points between these two teams after nearly 1/4 of the season and while i'm not suggesting Palace are anywhere near the level of Man City, i'm not sure Man City should be such long odds on. Palace have a 0-0 draw and a 3-2 win against Man City in recent times, so I fancy them to keep it tight enough for them to land this bet.