newjack

England vs Croatia Vast majority seems to be on England and Under. I beg to differ. Croatia is not what it was without Rakitic and Mandzukic, having lost a lot of firepower with those two they're still a good team and @7 is just crazy. Not gonna go into too much details here so here are the bets: Over 2,5 @ 2.08 1,5u Croatia ML @ 7 0,5u Croatia +1 @ 1.95 1u

I really love what @StefanBB wrote. Turkey in my opinion is gonna be a tough nut to crack and they do prefer offense vs defense. On the other hand Italy is no longer "get goal park the bus" kind of a team and is quite efficient in front of a goal. Only problem is they don't concede much. Given the fact that this is the opener I'm really leaning on overs. I do believe the Italy will win as they're the "dark horse" of the tournament but Turkey won't go down without a fight. Turkey on avg scores 2.2 goals and concedes 1.5, BTTS occured 60% of the time while failing to score 20% of the time and kept a clean sheet 30% of the time in the last 10 matches. Italy scores on avg 2,6 goals but concedes 0,1. They failed to score 10% of the time but managed to keep CS 90% of the time in last 10 matches. The odds on Over 2,5 are at 2,3 and probability for o2,5 is at 50%. Prediction is 1:2 in favor of Italy.

Man this season is really wierd. I havent been posting much but thats mostly because i cant make heads and tails of whats what. One thing i noticed is there are alot of pens awarded, in fact avg odds on pen os 2.75 to 3.75, match dependant. Every week we get pen in probably 5/10 matches. See where im going with this?

Also fancy Eve to beat ManU, safer bet here would be bts + 0,25 at 1.9, high probability of that hitting. Also fancy Sheff to +1,1,5 and straight out ml for small stakes. I think they can hold chelsea back, was evident vs man city. Slightly leaning to leeds, like their style, but as thfc mentioned i don't see palace here as dogs, will stay away from this one.,

I'd be careful with Liverpool, it's doubtful they'll lose but with how easy this group is they might not play as hard as you'd expect them this first match.

Afaik Lovren is out, Firminho is sick but will likely play, Gomey out, Dyk out, that backline looks awful however the good thing pool has going for them is that Bayern's defense this season has been attrocious to say the least. On avg they concede 1.2 goals. They've conceded a goal in last 6 bundesliga matches, 2 against augsburg and herta. They are slowly grinding but i reckon pool will be a very difficult fixture for them and here's why: They're used to pressing footie, holding the ball, attacking and creating chances. And Liverpool simply won't allow it, at best you're looking at 50/50 possesion imo even in spite of liverpool's missing defenders and most probably Fabinho or henderson will play in Lovren's position. I can't see LP not conceding here, but it's also hard to see them not winning at home so imo o2,5&bts or LP&o2,5 might be something to seriously consider.

I'm sorry, but arsenal priced @11 ??? They're 3 places below city and such dogs? uhmm, yeah city will most likely win but come on this is ridic, taking arsenal +2 at 1.9.

i tend to agree with above guy. As seen Chelsea, City, Pool fucked up (pool not as much but still). I def feel Bourne is too strong for cardiff however their away form is bad to say the least. Eve/wolves look like an over to me so does united/leicester and ars/city. Honestly utd ml is currently sitting at 2.1 which imo is quite high

tough matchups tbf, i think i'm staying away.

whats with all the complications lately? just looking at some statistics you can tell what is what, i don't wanna sound arrogant or cocky but why bother with low end of the table? it's completely random and basically anything can happen. For that matter upper league table offers some nice fixtures for overs. Assuming Spurs will play poorly based of 1 cup match that they won? come on. Spurs racked 14 goals in previous 4 matches. Since Sol UTD in last 5 matches racked 16 goals. Both have tendency to concieve a goal and both average 1,5+ goals per game. Relying on h2h is irrelevant at this point because Man U's play style is different. Spurs will want to welcome this new attacking crazyness and counter of it. Last meeting was 0:3 at the ol' trafford, i bet Utd will want to get points here, i doubt they'll be happy with a draw especially if gunners botch the match vs west ham. Spurs also can afford to drop points. Like i said 2nd game i liked was Pool to win to nil (at the time i said it it was at 2.10, now it's 1.95, I expect to drop to 1.9 come match day). pool on avg concedes 0,64 goals per game when away (that % went slightly up because of city matchup). I can't see Brighton scoring. Liverpool control the match start to finish. Win 0:1 or 0:2 most probable. Arsenal - Westham Goals goals goals. Previous matches between West Ham United and Arsenal have averaged 3.64 goals while BTTS has happened 64% of the time Arsenal hasn't kept a clean sheet when away this season on avg conceding 2,1 goals while scoring 2,2 (when away). Ham scores 1,5 goals on avg at home while conceding 1,6 goals. Kept clean sheet 9% of the time, arsenal 0%. Super easy bet here. Last but not least Everton - Bournemouth The teams that usually cuck me in this one, but again i can't predict a winner in this one because both teams are hot/cold at times. Just looking at h2h: Previous matches between Everton and AFC Bournemouth have averaged 3.88 goals while BTTS has happened 75% of the time. This season Bournemouth on avg scores 1,2 goals when away and concedes 2,3 goals. Everton at home scores 1,64 goals and concedes 1,45 goals. Both have kept clean sheets in 20% range while failing to score is also low. (9% Eve). So again I go for goals. Ty and good night

I like arsenal game for goals, i love bourne/eve match for goals, i adore spurs&mau btts&over. Also I like Lpool to win to nil.

yeah pretty insane odds on lpool right now, they're sitting at 3.9 at b365 currently. I'll take that easy, even if they lose i still profit longterm from a bet like this

Well over2,5&bts at 1.9ish looks fairly good bet, it hits more often than odds suggest imo.

Man oh man, i'm a little discouraged by that last 0:0 result in city/pool game, but i firmly believe we're in for a goal fest. I just can't see under 2,5 in this one. Thoughts?

I think odds on pool are too high. They dropped a bit last few day but game day i'm seeing them closer to 3 or possibly even sub 3. Yes City is a tough opponent but i cant help but feel value on +0,5 pool currently sitting at 1.9