dylanphan

Some quick thoughts here..... In my eyes, the quality gap between the top two and the rest is massive. Man City should run away and hide with the title this year as they are just too much too handle, too deep. The only possible distraction will be their failure to win the CL and Pep will certainly put a large emphasis on winning that title. Don't sleep in Alvarez on this squad, he's really good. Liverpool lose Mane, sure, but there is still talent to burn and they bring in 23 year old Nunez and Luis Diaz will now have a full year under his belt. Got to be careful to manage Salah's workload as he tends to get the niggly injury from time to time, but still Klopp is a top manager so I would trust in him to do fine with this squad. After that I'd back Chelsea for 3rd. I really like Tuchel's approach and I know they've lost a few cb's and missed out on Konde, but they did bring in Koulibaly from Napoli and I think you'll see this team attack a lot, which may hide some of their defensive flaws. 4th-5th-6th I'm guessing some variation of Spurs, Arsenal and United. I support United, but this team is a mess. BEST case scenario, Rashford comes back in full health and has found his scoring boots, Martial compliments him, Ronaldo stops pouting, and Ericksen/Fernandes create tons of chances. They still lack a great holding/defensive MF but McTomminay is good enough and a CB tandem of Varane and MArtinez are very capable with the ball at their feet (Something that you can't say for the likes of Maguire and Lindelof). Team still has a lot of youth, we'll see what EtH can do here. Arsenal up and coming squad who i think will be a bit uneven at times. Weakest manager of the top 6, imho will hinder some performances. If they can take care of business against teams they should beat and not have any lapses, I can see a 4th place finish. Conte is a hired gun, who if he can't win trophies will move on to his next position. I'm not 100% sold on Spurs here, BUT, talent is there. Bringing in Kuluveski last year from Serie A was a great move and now with Richarlson, you will have a ton of threats on the counter and the wings, and not need to rely on getting the ball to Kane or relying on a piece of Son brilliance. They'll need it though because I don't rate their back line all that much and a few of their offensive guys never really known for getting back after it on defense. Can beat any team on any given day, but I don't see the overall depth there to make it much higher than 4th, tbh. Teams I think could challenge for Europe: Newcastle - throwing around cash like nobodies business, we'll just have to see how this team meshes though. I think they are top 10 for sure, and could they be this year's Leicester and really challenge for a title? Not sure they are that good, but I think they could get up to 3rd if things break just right. Howe always gets the most out of his players for sure, but they just lack the top end talent the clubs above them have. West Ham - Moyes is a really good manager, except when he was at Old Trafford where he just shit the proverbial bed, in my eyes. And right now he has a very talented Hammers side. Rice staying is huge. Can't expect Soucek to have the season he had last year, but Antonio fully healthy, Bowen, Benrahma and they bring in Scamacca from Serie A where he created tons of chances last year. I think Hammers can surprise and if they can find a way to defend and not need rely on their gk's who aren't the best, they will be a fun team. Teams I think will get relegated Bournemouth I think the weakest of them all. Leeds, gonna be tough for them to stay up with all they lost. As an American of course this team I'm familiar with their coach and a number of players, this Aaronson kid is going to be good, but this is an absolute terrible spot for him. I'm sure these guys will run around like chickens with their heads cut off and be annoying to play against at times, but not deep enough or good enough to stay up. Fulham would be the other obvious choice, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Wolves go down as they have had their cupboard picked pretty bare there over the past year or two.

Played Seattle -110 vs Portland. Big rivalry game, Seattle at home is always a strong play and they come in to this one in strong form. Both teams need points here, so a draw could be in the cards, but end of the day I just think Seattle is too solid of a side, have home field and will be a tough team to break down. Under would also be a decent play here. Charlotte/Nashville I see some value here in o2.25 (Evs). Both teams are about 50/50 to hit the 2.5 goals this year, but Charlotte really struggles for goals at home which is odd. Nashville's games have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5, and while Charlotte's only 2 of their last 5, they do create a lot of chances, they just don't finish well. I think we're getting a gift here with the 2.25 line, and I also like BTTS in this one. May be back later for the late games, but have some errands to run Pretty good start for the weekend here, LAFC won 3-2 so won both those bets, and NYFC gifted 3 first half PK's and I see they just scored to make it 3-1 so my biggest bet of the week lands. g'luck

For tonight, I have two plays that will hopefully pay off. LAFC -115 to win (1.15 to win 1 unit). Odds have drifted to a point where I think this is now a very playable number. There are a few injury concerns for LAFC with Vela and Rodriguez, but as this is a derby, at home, I do expect both to play (note, both missed last game out). Oh, and Bale will be at the game. Doubt he plays, maybe a late sub on, but this is a premier match for the MLS, in prime time, so expect all the major players to shine. LAFC have scored at least 2x in 9 of their last 10 home games. The only game they didn't, they lost 1-2 vs Austin, but thoroughly dominated statistically. That was their only loss at home on the year, so I think -115 is a great price and worth a full play here. LAFC/LA Galaxy o3.75 +200 (0.5 unit play) As mentioned above in detail, LAFC has plenty of scoring punch, in particular at home. I've actually seen more Galaxy games, and they are nowhere near as good, but one thing they do is get plenty of chances as well. And the professional poacher Chicharito always a threat to nick one in (Although he seems to miss more clear cut chances than anyone in the league as well!). I would not try to talk any one off a punt at the o2.5 line, but, if you look at previous head to head matches we have seen at least 2 goals in every match since inception and some barn burners with two 8 goal games, a 6 goal game, and last match out was a 4 goal result. Could be a dud, but I'll take a shot at 2/1 odds in a game where I'm expecting at least a few goals. Just a half unit, maybe we get another 3-1 LAFC victory g'luck

Thank you Stevie Day for all of your efforts! Big weekend ahead in MLS with a few major derbys - LAFC/LA Galaxy and Portland/Seattle. I'll see if I can swing back here later in the week but I did want to focus my attention on the NYFC/NE Revolution game. As I tend to focus on goals markets, this one is a good spot, imho to see some goals. NYFC's attack, in particular at home, is fantastic. They move the ball swiftly both through the middle and with bombing runs on the flanks, and if Castellanos starts, he always a good bet to get a goal (two this weekend). That said, they are very susceptible on the counter and allow plenty of opportunities against. They are kind of a team in flux here as they have an interim head coach, and big questions about who may be on the move. On the other side you have the Revolution who have made quite a number of moves to solidify this team and honestly I can see them making a late charge to be a contender for the MLS cup. While their last road match at Vancouver (*something like 2,000+ miles away) was a 0-0 draw, most of their away games see plenty of goals, as they score and allow almost 2 per game. NE overall are an over machine with 12/18 getting over 2.5, and 7/8 on the road going over 2.5. As I mentioned, NYFC is very aggressive on the small home field they have this game almost assuredly will get plenty of chances. And while I can't guarantee the goals, I do like o2.75 (-120) for a double unit wager. g'luck

I'd expect some goals in Vancouver/LAFC game. LAFC has a great attack, and score pretty much every game. Their defense on the road is mediocre at best. BTTS seems solid, but I also like o2.5 at -140 or so. Vancouver is under some pressure to get a result here so if you can get a first half goal, I think we'll get to 3 with ease with the game opening up. NYFC are very large home favorites, and reasonably so. They've lost just once at home all year. Atlanta on the other hand have just 4 points from 8 road matches all year long and are coming off a crushing loss last night in NY vs Red Bulls, where they allowed 2 goals after the 80 minute mark. They have also lost a number of players all year due various reasons, but have Josef Martinez back in the fold where he has scored 3 of the last 4 games. I would still recommend playing NYFC, HOWEVER with one major caveat as their talisman, Valentin Castellanos was absent last match and is under huge speculation to transfer, possibly to Leeds, possibly soon. NYFC is asking a kings bounty for him, but Leeds coffers have been stuffed with the recent losses of Raphinha and Phillips, and well, you think they may make a play for him soon. If Castellanos plays, I'd recommend playing NYFC at -0.75 for -115 or better as I just don't see them losing. g'luck