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dylanphan

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About dylanphan

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  • Birthday 05/04/1971

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  1. One game I like today is Bayer Leverkusen -1 (-120) Leverkusen has a fantastic squad and are flying high with 3 goals in each of their first two league games. They have weapons all over the field, and wonderkid Havertz is simply fantastic. Home win seems very likely here. I will lay the handicap here for a few reasons. Offseason has been very harsh for Hoffenheim. Injuries, attrition and they lost their coach to RB Leipzig and this is a massive loss in my eyes. Still without Kramaric, they lack in the dynamic goal scoring department. Game should have goals, but I fancy a 2-0, 3-1 home win here.
  2. Last week was one of my best in a while. I had West Ham at +250 in a number of acca's and my biggest bet was the Liverpool/Arsenal over. Only game that really cost me money was United losing, but that's going to happen. Their expected goals were nearly 3 and the expected goals against was the second lowest for the weekend. It happens. I've only made one bet for the weekend and its a big one. Man United +110. This is just nuts. I've stated for weeks I have Southampton tipped for the drop. United isn't great, no. But they are miles better here. They've played a very pleasing brand of soccer (yes I'm a yank) the past few weeks, and I just can't imagine how I'm getting +odds in this game. And if for no other reason there is absolutely no way United can afford to drop any more points after this start. I'll be back tomorrow night to post the rest of my thoughts, but this one is just a bad line in my eyes.
  3. Been a pretty good start to the season for me. Although I've been dead wrong on some teams, the bets I've put in have been so far, so good. early game, someone up top found Norwich +1 at evs and well, I need that line available to me because I've seen nothing close to that. I like Norwich and put a small play on them at +0.75 at -110. Norwich seem to get goals for fun. They led the championship in goals last year at just over 2gpg and seem to picked up right where they left off. Chelsea a bit of a team in flux imo. Jury still out on Lamps as a manager and it's going to take him a bit to find his best 11. I'll tell you right now, they have major questions at the back. Seen both their games in full and they have issues. Midfield is strong for Chelsea but I'm not convinced they have any finishing power up front to score goals. I think Norwich hangs around and this one has 1-1, 2-2 written on it - I'm very happy taking the home team with +0.75 here. I'm not getting involved in the Brighton/Southampton game at all, but said it before, I've got Saints tipped for the drop, so I'd again back the home side gun to my head. Leicester seems a good play to me at Sheffield, but tbh, I can't get a great read on them at all, and I have to think home team will be doing all it can to scrape for points here. Pass again. I absolutely think United will win at home vs Palace, but that's a heavy price to pay there. I wouldn't mind a United -1.25 at evs, but I'm not finding it, so I may play ingame with a slow start. United start the season in good form and I just don't think Palace has the pieces to challenge them here. I do like the 2-0 final score prop and may take a poke on that. West Ham been one of those teams I've been dead wrong on this year, and well, I'm going for it again. It appears to me they should have a full roster to choose from and the talent they have I don't think I can pass them again getting +250 to win at +150 or so for DNB. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me but I'm on West Ham again here. Watford is nothing special and there'll be pressure on both teams here to get a result. More pressure for the home side, I'll take + odds all day long. Game of the week is the late game Saturday, and unfortunately I'm not going to be around to watch or see lineups. But, to me this game is all about goals and o3 is worth a punt. Liverpool obviously has plenty of gk woes and that will be trouble. VVD can only do so much, and in my eyes, Arsenal are exactly the kind of team that will give Liverpool fits in the back. Massive pace in the likes of PEA and Pepe. Lacazette is a clinical finisher. And Dani Ceballas has been just lights out terrific so far. All that said, Liverpool is always a tough nut to beat at home and well, they still have a few great players in attack. Arsenal's defense is suspect at best. David Luiz certainly not the answer. This one just screams end to end action with plenty of chances. 🍻
  4. Usually the second week gives an opportunity or two to take a punt on a team with long odds, however this weeks fixtures are extremely tricky in my eyes. I generally will try to take an overreaction to the market as a chance to make a play, but I'm not seeing it this week at all. I'll go through a few games quickly. Liverpool should smash Southampton, I to have Southampton tipped for the drop, and Liverpool is obviously a strong side, however with Allison out and now potentially Adrian out well, I'm going to shy away by playing short odds here on the road side. This game screams pass to me so I will not be involved at all. City/Spurs is the marquis matchup this week and rightfully so. Two top sides. And this is a chance to play a small overreaction. City went to London and stomped West Ham. Spurs at home struggled mightily against newly promoted Aston Villa. So now City at home are at -270 to Spurs? I'm afraid that's too high. You can get Spurs at +0.25 at +150 or so and that seems a pretty good punt. But, I am passing as Spurs still a bit short handed and again, I just think there are better spots to put my money to work. Arsenal/Burnley could get my interest a bit. Arsenal played a sloppy opening fixture vs Newcastle and squeeked out a 1-0 win. But they played a weakened side. And it was a dreary rainy day at Newcastle. Burnley opened up their slate with a convincing 3-0 win vs a shit Southampton side, but I still think Burnley can make some noise here. Arsenal's defense is nothing to write home about, they play an attacking game and Ashley Barnes seems to score every game. This game has a strong interest to me at over 2.5 and over 2.75 and I'll shop around. I think we get 3-4 goals here pretty easily. Everton/Watford is a very interesting early fixture. I like both teams quite a bit. I played both last week and was obviously quite disappointed in both results. Now, ordinarily I would come back and hit Everton heavily as they are at home and the odds look quite short as I'm only laying about -135 for a home win. BUT, with Watford losing so badly last week to an inferior Brighton side, I'm simply paring back here as I think the away side will come in with a chip on their shoulders. This is just a small, 1/4 unit play on the home side to win. Now I know at this point in time I'm putting you to sleep. However, the next two games will have some money in play. West Ham/Brighton. West Ham got crushed last week by City. This will happen. Brighton won 3-0 last week on the road. That is a bit of an aberration. Now, you are giving me West Ham at about +195 on the road. YES. This will be a play. I'll take them to win as well as DNB in parlays all day long. West Ham has a good side. They struggled last week, sure, but now I'm getting a massive overreaction from last week's results. Brighton in my eyes is a weak side. I'm getting near 2/1 for an away win with a superior side, who will be desperate to rebound and get points. This is exactly a kind of situation I'm hunting. Aston Villa/ Bournemouth. I watched Villas game, did not see much of the Bournemouth fixture, but tbh this game is a simply play. I'm taking u2.75 goals here all day. These teams are both going to not want to give away points early, so a draw will do each well. Villa playing their first home game in the premier league in years will surely be hopping, but with so many new faces in the side, it will take time to gel, Bournemouth will want to play a pragmatic game and keep it close. Honestly I think this game ends at 1-1 but I could see one team held to nil. Either way, Villa played good defense for almost 80 minutes at Spurs and I think they'll do the same here. Norwich City/Newcastle. Newcastle looked absolutely dreadful week one. And if you can't get up for the opening weekend, at home against a big side like Arsenal, well frankly I feel sorry for your supporters and your season prospects. That being said, I was expecting a bigger price on Norwich at home. But, at +120 or so, that's just not a big enough price for a home win. I do think the canaries will get the win, but I was fully expecting a +150 or so price against a bigger name. At this point I'd put a small punt on the home side, simply because I thought Newcastle was terrible and I don't see much prospect for immediate improvement. gluck
  5. Sundays fixtures: Leicester is too heavily favored in my eyes. Maguire is going to be a massive loss to the confidence of this team. I don't see why Wolves are so short, I mean they finished ahead of Leicester last year, no? Give me Wolves at +260 and DNB at +160 here all day. I don't think Wolves will finish as high as last year, but see no reason why they can't get a result here tomorrow. I like Arsenal quite a bit this year. Lacazette/PEA and now Pepe in the attack. Tierney and Luiz should be good gets in defense. It make take a few weeks for this team to find their best 11, but I think they should have no issues vs Newcastle this week. Losing Rafa is going to be a a huge issue for Newcastle. I don't usually put a full unit on a first weekend fixture, but Arsenal are in my eyes the best bet of the weekend. I will probably make a small bet on ManUnited this weekend, but in all honesty, this is a supporter bet more than anything else. Chelsea is going to feel the loss of Hazard for sure. United was able to keep Pogba which was key, and grabbed Maguire and AWB. They are at home, and I think they need a result. I'm really not sold at all on Ole as boss, but I'm not at all sold with Lampard as a manager either. I don't mind getting +125 here at home opening weekend.
  6. First week always tricky in my eyes. I try to keep it simple and don't play much early on. Here are my quick thoughts on Saturday's games West Ham/City - this game is just a huge pass for me. I've got City tipped to win the league and they are just a fantastic side. But, I do like West Ham quite a bit this year. A full year with Lanzini, Anderson hit his form late - and I love the Fornals and Haller pickups. But, will take a while for this team to congeal. Meanwhile, City pretty much the same as last year. Kompany and Delph gone, Rodri on, this team will be fantastic this year. Just the odds aren't right for any play to me. City will be content with a win, West Ham will want to play well, early game, probably a 2-1, 3-1 final but who knows. No play. Bournemouth/Sheffield United - this will be a small play. Both teams will want to do all they can to pickup points where they can. In my eyes, Sheffield United has not done near enough to improve their side to stay in the premier league. They should be relegated. Bournemouth at home at evs seems a great play here, but, just a small play nonetheless. Burnley/Southampton - Another game where I like the home side. I have also tipped Southampton to drop. They are a great feeder club, but dont do anything to improve themselves. Burnley at home is strong and Dyche is a great manager. Shop around, get a great price and anything above +175 or so is a good play in my eyes. Crystal Palace/Everton - CP is a team in flux yet again. Zaha doesn't want to be there and in my eyes, this is a club that just doesn't do enough to improve themselves at all. Sell AWB for a nice profit but who they bring in? Seems to me they are always losing players and never bringing in quality in return. Everton is a team that I absolutely loved their transfer season. Gomes, Delph, Kean and Iwobi in. Only significant loss was Gueye. I mean, this was probably the best business in the premier league this summer. But, this doesn't necessarily equate to immediate results. Either way, I'm all in on Everton this game if I can get +140 or better. Watford/Brighton - two years back, Watford finished a point above Brighton in the table. The last year, Watford may significant improvements, while Brighton stayed the same, and well Watford shot up the table, improved nearly 10 points and 5 positions, while Brighton fell to just 2 points above the drop. Watford looks to be about the same, and Brighton took action and brought in a number of players to help improve their side. I think this will take some time to gel so I like the home side here at evs or better.
  7. Paderborn game busted, but MY GOD, bless you Franfkfurt. Absolutely made my weekend here.
  8. Two games have my interest here tomorrow in Germany. First one, Paderborn vs St Pauli. Paderborn score for fun at home with 36 goals in 12 home matches. I'm not that smart, but that looks to be 3 goals per game. In fact, they've scored at LEAST 3 goals in 6 of their last 7 home games. St Pauli no slouches, sitting 4th in the table so I expect this to be a very competitive game. Team that is at home loves to score against another good team? to me that simply means goals. o1.5 1H +125 o3 -120 BIG BET The other game looks to be an absolute cracker is Frankfurt/Hoffenheim. For my money, Rebic/Jovic/Haller is the best attacking force right now in Bundesliga. Jovic top of the table with 15 goals scored and 5 assist, and Haller has chipped in 11 goals and 8 assists and Rebic is a super attacking presence too. This team is fun to watch. Hoffenheim is a super attacking team that seemingly comes at you from all angles. They can posses the ball, hit you on the counter or just play box to box with you, Hoffenheims problem is they are leaky in defense. I think both teams almost assuredly score in this game, and I'll take punts at o3, o3.5, o4 and o4.5. Usually when I anticipate high scoring games like this, they end 1-0 or 1-1 so buyer beware, but if this game gets to 5, Party at Dylanphans house next weekend.
  9. Going to wake up early, really looking forward to Spurs/Arsenal game. No strong lean in that match, but do feel Arsenal are being undervalued, taking them +0.5 would make sense. Be honest here, I think Poch is overrated as a manager. He has a nice system, has a keen eye for young talent, and gets a lot of his players so something certainly can be said for that, but his in game management is questionable. Case in point, Kane's first game back in what, 6 weeks against Burnley of all teams, and leaves him in for a full 90? Yeah, he scored a goal, that's well and good, but bigger fish to fry and Burnley tough at home. And then he was outmatched vs a struggling Chelsea side, and again Kane in for full game. Very questionable strikers brought in in the likes of Soldado, Llorente, et al, I'm not overwhelmed. Anyway, I fully expect Man United to stomp Southampton tomorrow. I'll play them 1H, on the handicap, hell, maybe even a -2 here. Two teams going in exact opposite directions, United's forms been top notch and they are at home, no reason to believe this is even close. I also do like Wolves here at home quite a bit, Cardiff on the road a bit of a horror show with just 9 goals scored in 13 matches. Wolves play a nice attacking style. I really do like Wolves to bounce back here after two disappointing performances, home cooking, I'll lay -0.75 here. Lastly, I really think Burnley getting a great price at home, seeing close to 2/1 for home win vs Palace. How soon we forget how great Burnley were at home last year? Burnley won 3 of their last 4 at home with the other a draw, including a win vs Spurs. This is a good price, definitely worth a punt. :cheers:
  10. Well done Neubs. Between you and me we wiped clean on the early slate of games
  11. Borrusia Gladbach are super strong at home. They are a very good team with tons of attacking options and have won 11 in a row at home. See no reason not to back them here at -125 vs Augsburg. Nurnberg are the worst team I have seen play by far. They are certain to get relegated. They offer nothing from open play in attack and try to just defend defend defend and get a set piece. Terrible team Mainz at home should take care of them and again very generous price in my eyes at -120
  12. I'm going for o2.5 goals here in the Fulham/Spurs game Spurs are super thin, sure. But they are not out of options fully. They will need guys like Alli, Lamella and Erickson to step up. The loss of Son and Sissoko are really going to leave them super short in the mf and will make them susceptible on the counter for sure. Sessegnon on the bench today but Babel playing and while he was terrible in the premier league, he was actually quite good in Turkey. We'll see. Spurs also always have a chance to score on a set piece. Trippier is outstanding and Erickson no slouch. Spurs need points here as they have three teams breathing down their neck for the top 4. They have a lot of games coming up too. I think we get an open game 2-2 final.