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dylanphan

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About dylanphan

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  • Birthday 05/04/1971

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  1. Paderborn game busted, but MY GOD, bless you Franfkfurt. Absolutely made my weekend here.
  2. Two games have my interest here tomorrow in Germany. First one, Paderborn vs St Pauli. Paderborn score for fun at home with 36 goals in 12 home matches. I'm not that smart, but that looks to be 3 goals per game. In fact, they've scored at LEAST 3 goals in 6 of their last 7 home games. St Pauli no slouches, sitting 4th in the table so I expect this to be a very competitive game. Team that is at home loves to score against another good team? to me that simply means goals. o1.5 1H +125 o3 -120 BIG BET The other game looks to be an absolute cracker is Frankfurt/Hoffenheim. For my money, Rebic/Jovic/Haller is the best attacking force right now in Bundesliga. Jovic top of the table with 15 goals scored and 5 assist, and Haller has chipped in 11 goals and 8 assists and Rebic is a super attacking presence too. This team is fun to watch. Hoffenheim is a super attacking team that seemingly comes at you from all angles. They can posses the ball, hit you on the counter or just play box to box with you, Hoffenheims problem is they are leaky in defense. I think both teams almost assuredly score in this game, and I'll take punts at o3, o3.5, o4 and o4.5. Usually when I anticipate high scoring games like this, they end 1-0 or 1-1 so buyer beware, but if this game gets to 5, Party at Dylanphans house next weekend.
  3. Going to wake up early, really looking forward to Spurs/Arsenal game. No strong lean in that match, but do feel Arsenal are being undervalued, taking them +0.5 would make sense. Be honest here, I think Poch is overrated as a manager. He has a nice system, has a keen eye for young talent, and gets a lot of his players so something certainly can be said for that, but his in game management is questionable. Case in point, Kane's first game back in what, 6 weeks against Burnley of all teams, and leaves him in for a full 90? Yeah, he scored a goal, that's well and good, but bigger fish to fry and Burnley tough at home. And then he was outmatched vs a struggling Chelsea side, and again Kane in for full game. Very questionable strikers brought in in the likes of Soldado, Llorente, et al, I'm not overwhelmed. Anyway, I fully expect Man United to stomp Southampton tomorrow. I'll play them 1H, on the handicap, hell, maybe even a -2 here. Two teams going in exact opposite directions, United's forms been top notch and they are at home, no reason to believe this is even close. I also do like Wolves here at home quite a bit, Cardiff on the road a bit of a horror show with just 9 goals scored in 13 matches. Wolves play a nice attacking style. I really do like Wolves to bounce back here after two disappointing performances, home cooking, I'll lay -0.75 here. Lastly, I really think Burnley getting a great price at home, seeing close to 2/1 for home win vs Palace. How soon we forget how great Burnley were at home last year? Burnley won 3 of their last 4 at home with the other a draw, including a win vs Spurs. This is a good price, definitely worth a punt. :cheers:
  4. Well done Neubs. Between you and me we wiped clean on the early slate of games
  5. Borrusia Gladbach are super strong at home. They are a very good team with tons of attacking options and have won 11 in a row at home. See no reason not to back them here at -125 vs Augsburg. Nurnberg are the worst team I have seen play by far. They are certain to get relegated. They offer nothing from open play in attack and try to just defend defend defend and get a set piece. Terrible team Mainz at home should take care of them and again very generous price in my eyes at -120
  6. I'm going for o2.5 goals here in the Fulham/Spurs game Spurs are super thin, sure. But they are not out of options fully. They will need guys like Alli, Lamella and Erickson to step up. The loss of Son and Sissoko are really going to leave them super short in the mf and will make them susceptible on the counter for sure. Sessegnon on the bench today but Babel playing and while he was terrible in the premier league, he was actually quite good in Turkey. We'll see. Spurs also always have a chance to score on a set piece. Trippier is outstanding and Erickson no slouch. Spurs need points here as they have three teams breathing down their neck for the top 4. They have a lot of games coming up too. I think we get an open game 2-2 final.
  7. Okay, I sat out the first few weeks to watch some games and get a feel for things. Trust me when I saw the eyes lie, but I think I get too antsy early in the season and press but after just seeing how things play out I get a better feel for teams. Fulham/Watford o2.5 (-115) Watford a bit of shock here sitting near top of the table and just one loss to United, a game they did not play that poorly. Watford a sneaky counter attacking team and they average at 2gpg. Fulham not much to lose in this one, no reason for them not to attack. I really think both teams score in this one and it wouldn't shock me to see Fulham get a win here, but I played it a bit more to the vest and just go for goals. Burnley DNB +115 Burnley sitting bottom of the table here, and just got steam rolled last game out @ wolves. They absolutely need points here and have an opponent much more on their level. Their two home games so far have been vs United and the aforementioned Watford, this is a game Burnley desperately need a result. I'm getting plus odds for DNB play on a home side against an opponent on par, that's too good to pass up. Cardiff/City pass All due respect Stevie Day, but this is a bad matchup here for Cardiff. City coming off a very disappointing CL result, I can see a game that gets out of hand. I can't see Cardiff wanting to open up, and I'm not laying this kind of handicap on the road but a 0-4 result would not surprise me at all. I think Cardiff will do well to get away with an 0-2 result, but I've no interest getting involved in this game. Crystal Palace/Newcastle draw +260 Newcastle have 1 point after 5 games here and are another desperate side. So soon we forget what CP lost what their first 7 matches last year and did not get relegated? Newcastle cannot well afford this kind of start, so I do expect a strong performance. Quite honestly I see this as a tight fought match where Newcastle need a win, but an away draw will suit them fine. CP with just 4 goals in 5 matches, and their wins are against a newly promoted Fulham and a bottom dwellar in Huddersfield, a point for both sides I think will be good. Leicesters/Huddersfield o2 (-145) This one was tough to hit submit. Every Leicester game gets goals. Huddersfield is going to want to play compact. In the end I decided with the home side going for goals we'd have a better chance of getting to 3 (or 4) then not getting any. I think Huddersfield wants to get a result here too, so 1-1 wouldn't surprise me, but that would at least get me the push. Liverpool/Southampton pass Hard pass here. Pool playing against their feeder club, coming off a huge CL win, sitting at a perfect 5-0 start to the premier league season, at home. All arrows point to massive home win. Well, a) I hate Liverpool, b) I cannot stand Liverpool and c) there is no chance in hell I'm ever laying 2 goals with a team I am rooting against. United/Wolves o2.5 (-120) Wolves here is a massive dog, but no way in hell should they be. Have you seen Wolves play? They've been wonderful. Should have had at least a half dozen last game vs Burnley. Their last three matches are two wins and a draw, the draw vs City. That's top notch. Now, United do come in brimming with confidence too, winning their last three. But let's face it, Burnley, Young Boys and Watford not exactly world beaters, and they were not that impressive vs Watford. but United is at home, without any major injury concerns, and Mourinho a bit under the gun still as they are sitting mid-table early, that's the only reason I am not taking the near +550 for away win. I do fancy goals here as both teams should score and probably a home win. g'luck
  8. Very tricky fixture today at Old Trafford. After a pragmatic, 0-0, negative football draw at Sevilla, United not in the best of spots here. Sevilla get a goal and United need score 2 to advance which could be very difficult proposition. But, I am going to try not to overthink this one too much. Sevilla a good side, but honestly United much much better. The only team to come into the Theater of Dreams and come away with a victory since January 2016 has been Man City. Not a single other visitor has won there. Sevilla does not offer the same kind of threat that City does by any means. United is not going to win the league this year. However, a Champions League win would be a massive boost here and really a feather in Mourinho's cap. I can't see United not advancing and even though the is a bit steep, I'll go with United -165 to win (Extra time and pk's are such a crap shoot,I think they really need to win in regular time). I'll also take a shot with exact score of United 2-1 at +625
  9. Okay lads, I'm gonna make this write up the night before the match here in the states, and I'll also preface this by stating I'm a United supporter big time. I generally don't like to send bets in before I see lineups, but I'll do my best to prognosticate this match beforehand. There is no love loss between these two teams for sure. And I'm also fairly sure that both coaches know that neither side is catching City this year for the premier league title, so a top 4 spot is a key consideration. Liverpool's form has been top notch. Not only in the PL, but easing through the CL with a resounding thumping of Porto. All in all this has to be marked down as a great season for Liverpool, because let's face it, other than Arsenal can any big club in England have a sadder recent history? A league cup in 2012, an FA cup in 2006, this team is starved for silverware. But Klopp come in and this team is really fun to watch. Salah, Firmino, Sane, all fantastic in my eyes. This team has a realistic shot of making semi's in CL and top 3 in premier league. Few more pieces and well, they may challenge for another cup title real soon. But, United are not going to lose tomorrow at OT. Mourinho been fantastic against top 6 sides in England this year and I see no reason for this game to be different. United missing a few players, sure, but other than Martial I think we'll see a top side out there. It's true that United have Sevilla to deal with mid week, but this is an early Saturday game, and the next game isn't till Tuesday and its at United. In fact, United don't need leave Manchester until end of April ffs. Next 4 games at home, and then their road game is City, so that's 6 weeks in Manchester. Rest/travel is not going to be an issue. Sanchez has had a few games now under his belt with his new teammates, so I'm certainly hoping that will help him acquaint himself better because hes been pretty terrible, but with Martial not in the squad, he'll have the left all to himself now. Lukaku in the middle, Rashford on the right maybe and Pogba getting the ball forward. Look, United gonna at the very least draw here and frankly I think they win outright. Only team I wouldn't back United to get points from at OT is City and Liverpool is not City United pk +101 United to win +194
  10. Waiting on lineups here to finalize bets, but on the early matches: AC Milan/Arsenal under 2.5 seems a good bet for me. Arsenal relying on Welbeck to score, well, enough said. AC Milan have a plenty solid side and I'm sure will be pleased to not allow a road goal here. 1-0, 2-0 result seems right. I do really like Marseille to get a result at home too. If Aduriz is absent, this will be a bet from me for sure. CSKA/Lyon under 2.5 seems another good one, especially if Fekir is out for Lyon. Generally speaking, when I like unders, expect plenty of goals. Will try to stop by later on thoughts for the second wave of matches.
  11. It would be a bit of a shock result if Toronto don't advance, at home, with the return of Giovinco and Altidore. A road draw was a good result for them. That being said, Columbus went into Atlanta which boasts a tremendous home field advantage, and advance through them on PK's. Columbus always undervalued and I'd suggest a play on them on a handicap or else under on total goals as I don't expect an open game again. Seattle has the other tie in a virtual death grip, with a road win and 2 road goals, and returning to home with one of the most significant home field advantages in MLS. They have a full squad to choose from. They were firmly in control of the first leg, with an early goal and then Houston went down a man, it wasn't much of a match really. Obviously Houston will need to attack to get at least 2 goals to advance. Seattle will really have no need to do much other then control possession and counter if need be. This is pretty much worst case scenario for Dynamo as they are a fast moving attacking side that love to strike on the counter. I don't see many opportunities for them here, however that will not dissuade me from taking a shot on the road team to win at 5.00 or better. The only thing that gives me some pause is I have absolutely no faith in the Houston back line, but still I'm not going to back a home side that needs nothing more than a draw or lose by more than a goal to advance. Should be a snooze fest unless Houston is able to get an early goal.
  12. Houston GK will be suspended for this game for an off field domestic abuse incident. More fuel for the Portland fire
  13. All four home sides are pretty heavily favored as to be expected. My initial thoughts as I generally wait till much closer to kickoff before sending in any bets Vancouver blew a beautiful opportunity at home in the first leg to get a result. They had to know Seattle was punch less, but they came out as under inspiring themselves, afraid to allow a road goal. That's pretty disappointing as I think you should always play for the win. Seattle will get two huge boosts, first their massive home crowd. And then they should have a few players that may be available and of course Dempsey off suspension. A bit strange they play this one 2 full days before the other games. Anyway, I think this one should be another dull, drab affair like the pacific northwest - look to the under if anything. I don't think Toronto is going to lose at home, barring something very dodgy. But, being that they already have the win and two away goals in their back pocket, I'm not sure how open they will play either. Very well would be happy with a draw and rest some guys late. Again, another low scoring affair more than likely, but I would give a slight nod to Toronto at -135 or better simply because Giovinco such a threat on any set piece. Other two games have much more interest to me. The first leg of the Columbus/NYFC was a real cracker, and if you didn't watch the game, do not let the 4-1 scoreline fool you. NY played down a man most of the 2h and blew at least 2 golden opportunities in the 1h, including a rare David villa sitter he racked off the post. That being said, Columbus has been impressive in that they advance at Atlanta and then came home where they enjoy a nice home field crowd and just played open and free soccer against NY, netting 4. That last one really was a big goal, because NY could have advance with a 2-0 home result, but the late late goal really puts the burden on NY to open up. NY home field is smallish, and could clog things up a bit, but I'll be honest, I think we get a home win and at least 3 goals in this one. NY 3-1 seems about right, so put me on the home side at -135 or better as well as a touch on the handicap as I think they win by 2. IF you only watch one MLS game this weekend, this should be the one. Houston also played uncharacteristically tentative at home in the first leg. But, a few notes. First they had a 1h pk overturned by video assistant. That could have really turned the game. Second Houston is without two first choice defenders in DelaGarza and Leonardo, so they couldn't open things up too much as a road goal may have spelled curtains. They are starting Phllipe Sendeross (yes, that Sendeross) as their main CB and he's about as agile as a rocking chair. Plus he got hit with an early yellow so really had to watch himself. The Houston defense is going to get abused in this leg and it's going to get ugly. Portland is a fast team, and play on an artificial, slick surface at home where they really play uptempo. And while the Houston mf and forwards to like to press and play a higher tempo game, well, there are goign to be a lot of opportunities for Portland to take advantage of this if they get caught. Honestly, Portland wins here easy, 3-0.
  14. Here are my thoughts on today's matches. I cannot see backing Koln today, especially at very short odds. They are bottom of the Bundelisga with 2 points in 10 games, and only scored 4 goals in those 10 games. Surviving relegation is goal 1a and 1b for this club right now and anyone with any type of knock needs to be sat. Team came into the campaign with high hopes, and have thoroughly disappointed. Opening Europa league fixture at Arsenal saw thousands of Koln fans 'invade' the Emirates and brought a huge atmosphere with them. Unfortunately, the fans do not play the game, and the team lost 1-3. Since that time it's been loss after loss after loss. Koln is a decent defensively shaped team and are difficult to break down, but if you don't score goals yourself, it doesn't matter. I will be all over the visitors today and find Bate at +0.5 at +120 to be a great bet. As luck would have it this weekend Koln face Hoffenheim in Bundlesiga. Hoffenheim is a team I do fancy, they play a nice brand of soccer (yes, I'm American), but again were just shy of Champions League play and got knocked down to Europa League. I think their focus must be on the league again however this is a group up for grabs for them and they are probably the best team in this group. The knocked around Istanbul first leg, but Hoffenheim play a much better game at home than on the road. Istanbul has had a nice start to the season in Super League play, although they do sit at the bottom of the group here. If anything I think Hoffenheim can get a few goals here, and I would play over 2.5, but small bet only. Lazio is playing some great offensive soccer, and this is a classic matchup of a team in great form vs a team in disappointing form. Both teams are pretty safe to advance, but in this case, I am happy laying the handicap of -1 here with Lazio at -120 odds. Those are my three plays for today.
  15. I love Vancouver tonight at +142. They have to be brimming with confidence after the drubbing of SJ last match out in an elimination match. I think they should come in with that same attitude tonight, as they really do need a result before going to the return fixture at Seattle which enjoys one of the best home field advantages in the league, if not the very best. They have the added advantage of being able to face a very banged up Seattle team, also without their emotional leader in Dempsey who picked up a stupid red last match out. Seattle may well play for a scoreless draw as their offense should be completely impotent. And while a draw will not kill Vancouver here, You're getting a great price on a motivated home side playing a sub-optimal opponent. If you can't pull the trigger on this one, shouldn't be gambling in my opinion.