dylanphan

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About dylanphan

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 05/04/71
  1. Very tricky fixture today at Old Trafford. After a pragmatic, 0-0, negative football draw at Sevilla, United not in the best of spots here. Sevilla get a goal and United need score 2 to advance which could be very difficult proposition. But, I am going to try not to overthink this one too much. Sevilla a good side, but honestly United much much better. The only team to come into the Theater of Dreams and come away with a victory since January 2016 has been Man City. Not a single other visitor has won there. Sevilla does not offer the same kind of threat that City does by any means. United is not going to win the league this year. However, a Champions League win would be a massive boost here and really a feather in Mourinho's cap. I can't see United not advancing and even though the is a bit steep, I'll go with United -165 to win (Extra time and pk's are such a crap shoot,I think they really need to win in regular time). I'll also take a shot with exact score of United 2-1 at +625
  2. Premier League Predictions > Mar 10th - 12th

    Okay lads, I'm gonna make this write up the night before the match here in the states, and I'll also preface this by stating I'm a United supporter big time. I generally don't like to send bets in before I see lineups, but I'll do my best to prognosticate this match beforehand. There is no love loss between these two teams for sure. And I'm also fairly sure that both coaches know that neither side is catching City this year for the premier league title, so a top 4 spot is a key consideration. Liverpool's form has been top notch. Not only in the PL, but easing through the CL with a resounding thumping of Porto. All in all this has to be marked down as a great season for Liverpool, because let's face it, other than Arsenal can any big club in England have a sadder recent history? A league cup in 2012, an FA cup in 2006, this team is starved for silverware. But Klopp come in and this team is really fun to watch. Salah, Firmino, Sane, all fantastic in my eyes. This team has a realistic shot of making semi's in CL and top 3 in premier league. Few more pieces and well, they may challenge for another cup title real soon. But, United are not going to lose tomorrow at OT. Mourinho been fantastic against top 6 sides in England this year and I see no reason for this game to be different. United missing a few players, sure, but other than Martial I think we'll see a top side out there. It's true that United have Sevilla to deal with mid week, but this is an early Saturday game, and the next game isn't till Tuesday and its at United. In fact, United don't need leave Manchester until end of April ffs. Next 4 games at home, and then their road game is City, so that's 6 weeks in Manchester. Rest/travel is not going to be an issue. Sanchez has had a few games now under his belt with his new teammates, so I'm certainly hoping that will help him acquaint himself better because hes been pretty terrible, but with Martial not in the squad, he'll have the left all to himself now. Lukaku in the middle, Rashford on the right maybe and Pogba getting the ball forward. Look, United gonna at the very least draw here and frankly I think they win outright. Only team I wouldn't back United to get points from at OT is City and Liverpool is not City United pk +101 United to win +194
  3. Europa League Predictions > Mar 8th

    Waiting on lineups here to finalize bets, but on the early matches: AC Milan/Arsenal under 2.5 seems a good bet for me. Arsenal relying on Welbeck to score, well, enough said. AC Milan have a plenty solid side and I'm sure will be pleased to not allow a road goal here. 1-0, 2-0 result seems right. I do really like Marseille to get a result at home too. If Aduriz is absent, this will be a bet from me for sure. CSKA/Lyon under 2.5 seems another good one, especially if Fekir is out for Lyon. Generally speaking, when I like unders, expect plenty of goals. Will try to stop by later on thoughts for the second wave of matches.
  4. MLS Play-Off Predictions > Nov 30th & Dec 1st

    It would be a bit of a shock result if Toronto don't advance, at home, with the return of Giovinco and Altidore. A road draw was a good result for them. That being said, Columbus went into Atlanta which boasts a tremendous home field advantage, and advance through them on PK's. Columbus always undervalued and I'd suggest a play on them on a handicap or else under on total goals as I don't expect an open game again. Seattle has the other tie in a virtual death grip, with a road win and 2 road goals, and returning to home with one of the most significant home field advantages in MLS. They have a full squad to choose from. They were firmly in control of the first leg, with an early goal and then Houston went down a man, it wasn't much of a match really. Obviously Houston will need to attack to get at least 2 goals to advance. Seattle will really have no need to do much other then control possession and counter if need be. This is pretty much worst case scenario for Dynamo as they are a fast moving attacking side that love to strike on the counter. I don't see many opportunities for them here, however that will not dissuade me from taking a shot on the road team to win at 5.00 or better. The only thing that gives me some pause is I have absolutely no faith in the Houston back line, but still I'm not going to back a home side that needs nothing more than a draw or lose by more than a goal to advance. Should be a snooze fest unless Houston is able to get an early goal.
  5. MLS Play-Off Predictions > Nov 3rd - 6th

    Houston GK will be suspended for this game for an off field domestic abuse incident. More fuel for the Portland fire
  6. MLS Play-Off Predictions > Nov 3rd - 6th

    All four home sides are pretty heavily favored as to be expected. My initial thoughts as I generally wait till much closer to kickoff before sending in any bets Vancouver blew a beautiful opportunity at home in the first leg to get a result. They had to know Seattle was punch less, but they came out as under inspiring themselves, afraid to allow a road goal. That's pretty disappointing as I think you should always play for the win. Seattle will get two huge boosts, first their massive home crowd. And then they should have a few players that may be available and of course Dempsey off suspension. A bit strange they play this one 2 full days before the other games. Anyway, I think this one should be another dull, drab affair like the pacific northwest - look to the under if anything. I don't think Toronto is going to lose at home, barring something very dodgy. But, being that they already have the win and two away goals in their back pocket, I'm not sure how open they will play either. Very well would be happy with a draw and rest some guys late. Again, another low scoring affair more than likely, but I would give a slight nod to Toronto at -135 or better simply because Giovinco such a threat on any set piece. Other two games have much more interest to me. The first leg of the Columbus/NYFC was a real cracker, and if you didn't watch the game, do not let the 4-1 scoreline fool you. NY played down a man most of the 2h and blew at least 2 golden opportunities in the 1h, including a rare David villa sitter he racked off the post. That being said, Columbus has been impressive in that they advance at Atlanta and then came home where they enjoy a nice home field crowd and just played open and free soccer against NY, netting 4. That last one really was a big goal, because NY could have advance with a 2-0 home result, but the late late goal really puts the burden on NY to open up. NY home field is smallish, and could clog things up a bit, but I'll be honest, I think we get a home win and at least 3 goals in this one. NY 3-1 seems about right, so put me on the home side at -135 or better as well as a touch on the handicap as I think they win by 2. IF you only watch one MLS game this weekend, this should be the one. Houston also played uncharacteristically tentative at home in the first leg. But, a few notes. First they had a 1h pk overturned by video assistant. That could have really turned the game. Second Houston is without two first choice defenders in DelaGarza and Leonardo, so they couldn't open things up too much as a road goal may have spelled curtains. They are starting Phllipe Sendeross (yes, that Sendeross) as their main CB and he's about as agile as a rocking chair. Plus he got hit with an early yellow so really had to watch himself. The Houston defense is going to get abused in this leg and it's going to get ugly. Portland is a fast team, and play on an artificial, slick surface at home where they really play uptempo. And while the Houston mf and forwards to like to press and play a higher tempo game, well, there are goign to be a lot of opportunities for Portland to take advantage of this if they get caught. Honestly, Portland wins here easy, 3-0.
  7. Europa League Predictions > Nov 2nd

    Here are my thoughts on today's matches. I cannot see backing Koln today, especially at very short odds. They are bottom of the Bundelisga with 2 points in 10 games, and only scored 4 goals in those 10 games. Surviving relegation is goal 1a and 1b for this club right now and anyone with any type of knock needs to be sat. Team came into the campaign with high hopes, and have thoroughly disappointed. Opening Europa league fixture at Arsenal saw thousands of Koln fans 'invade' the Emirates and brought a huge atmosphere with them. Unfortunately, the fans do not play the game, and the team lost 1-3. Since that time it's been loss after loss after loss. Koln is a decent defensively shaped team and are difficult to break down, but if you don't score goals yourself, it doesn't matter. I will be all over the visitors today and find Bate at +0.5 at +120 to be a great bet. As luck would have it this weekend Koln face Hoffenheim in Bundlesiga. Hoffenheim is a team I do fancy, they play a nice brand of soccer (yes, I'm American), but again were just shy of Champions League play and got knocked down to Europa League. I think their focus must be on the league again however this is a group up for grabs for them and they are probably the best team in this group. The knocked around Istanbul first leg, but Hoffenheim play a much better game at home than on the road. Istanbul has had a nice start to the season in Super League play, although they do sit at the bottom of the group here. If anything I think Hoffenheim can get a few goals here, and I would play over 2.5, but small bet only. Lazio is playing some great offensive soccer, and this is a classic matchup of a team in great form vs a team in disappointing form. Both teams are pretty safe to advance, but in this case, I am happy laying the handicap of -1 here with Lazio at -120 odds. Those are my three plays for today.
  8. MLS Play-Off Predictions > Oct 30th - Nov 1st

    I love Vancouver tonight at +142. They have to be brimming with confidence after the drubbing of SJ last match out in an elimination match. I think they should come in with that same attitude tonight, as they really do need a result before going to the return fixture at Seattle which enjoys one of the best home field advantages in the league, if not the very best. They have the added advantage of being able to face a very banged up Seattle team, also without their emotional leader in Dempsey who picked up a stupid red last match out. Seattle may well play for a scoreless draw as their offense should be completely impotent. And while a draw will not kill Vancouver here, You're getting a great price on a motivated home side playing a sub-optimal opponent. If you can't pull the trigger on this one, shouldn't be gambling in my opinion.
  9. MLS Play-Offs Predictions > Oct 25th - 27th

    Vancouver is definitely worth a bet at -125 or so. SJ is terrible and on the road this season boasted a lofty 11 goals for vs 39 goals against. Anything can happen in knock out round for sure, but this one seems to be a banker I also do like Houston against SKC a bit too at +122, just a few things to keep in mind here. This will be the third time these two teams have met in the past 2 weeks. The first match was at Houston and it really was a must win for Houston. They did, but on a late own goal against in what was a very even match. BUT, this game came just after the international break and both teams were missing a number of key players. The next game was at KC and Houston really only needed a point to secure a playoff spot. They were vastly outplayed here, but this was expected as they were happy to end with a 0-0 game. So, this may lead you to go with a well coached, very well formed defensive away team. But, Houston enjoys playing at home where they had the best conference home record (just 1 loss in 17 games) and a robust 43-17 goal differential. This will also be the first playoff game for Houston since 2013 so I expect a strong performance and a home win. In the east I expect goals galore in Atlanta. so that is an easy over play. Chicago and NYRB is really a toss up in my eyes. I'd probably take the higher odds with the road side and maybe a touch on the draw if you want to play this one.
  10. Premier League Predictions > Oct 14th - 16th

    You may well be right. Honestly, I could see Mourinho not even starting Mata here and playing Blind and Herrera I don't think Young will feature tbh. I could see something like DDG Valencia-Bailly-Jones-Blind Herrera-Matic Rashford - Miky - Martial Lukaku Either way, I cannot not see a few goals here and am quite shocked over is so low. I know United has a great defense but they have played quite a few offensively challenged teams to start the league (Palace, Everton, Southampton, Leicester, West Ham, Swansea and Stoke - these teams have combined for just 22 goals between them in their last 35 games combined ffs). I'll take a strong play at BTTS tomorrow morning at -140. Really think this will hit before HT.
  11. Premier League Predictions > Oct 14th - 16th

    This for me too pretty strong. Pool always attacking at Anfield and averaging 2gpg including of course 4 vs Arsenal. And while you may think that 4 is skewing the average, they had 35 attempts vs Burnley and 21 vs Crystal Palace, could have easily scored 2-3 more in either contest. United is without Fellaini and Carrick, so they will probably opt to play Blind in the defensive mf role. And while Blind is very good, he is very different player. I have to think United will also feature Herrera and Mata with Pogba out, with Herrera and Blind tasked with running all over the pitch, while Mata will lead the attack. Game may not be wild open, but with the firepower that both sides have in the likes of Rashford, MArtial, Lukaku, Firmino, Countinho, Sturridge, I mean it's just hard not to see plenty of chances. I'll probably play 1h over too depending on lineups and I think if we can get 1 before 20', we can easily see 3-4 in this game.
  12. MLS Predictions > Oct 12th - 16th

    Here are a few thoughts for you to chew on in the days ahead. In years past, things really start tightening up the last few fixtures as teams are vying for playoff spots/positioning. This year the same can be said in the Western conference, as with 2 games remaining, 6 points separate 7 teams from spots 2-8, with two of those missing out on the playoffs. Houston picked up a massive 3 points at home last night with a late own goal and their next game is away to the team they just beat, KC. A draw would honestly suit both of these teams just fine, and both teams will be bolstered by the return of a number of national players that were out on qualifying. This game will almost assuredly be an UNDER 2.5 play for me, with a sprinkle on the draw line. Along those lines, Unders also in Seattle and Vancouver games too. The east is a bit more open up with all playoff positions settled up. But, a few nice games this weekend for goals. Toronto/Montreal is always a tough fought match and I see no reason why Montreal will sit back here. This one should have goals in it. Chicago/Philly game is another I'll be looking at goals. Lastly NYRB and Atlanta could have potential for a lot of goals, however, both teams may be inclined to rest some key players for the playoffs here. I almost always check for lineups before sending in anything big,but those are the games I would lean to play.
  13. MLS Predictions > Sep 30th & Oct 1st

    Atlanta on the road Saturday and Almiron is knicked up so no play there. BUT, if he gets back healthy, play overs and ATL on 10/3 with both fists full as this should be a banker for sure. Toronto and NYRB should have some goals in it, but honestly need to see lineups as Toronto missing some key players and with playoffs around the corner, don't see much need to rush them back. For me there are two plays this weekend Chicago Fire already down to +106 as opposed to the +120 posted at opening and rightfully so. Fire this year really turned things around and are a playoff team. With an 11-2-2 home record against a NYCFC team that really just has a bunch of big names and isn't that great, no reason to not play them getting + money here. Other play will be o3 in the Houston/Minnesota game. Houston only lost 1x at home all year and coming off a very disappointing draw vs LA Galaxy midweek, they will need this game to get in the playoffs for sure. Houston plays a very attacking aggressive style and at home they are always particularly good for goals averaging over 2.5 gpg. Meanwhile Minnesota are not particularly defensive stalwarts on the road where they allow over 2.5 gpg to the home side themselves. So we have a good home offensive team and two weak defensive teams, this line up to see a 3-2, 4-2 type game
  14. MLS Predictions > Sep 20th - 25th

    Oh, Atlanta home games overs are bankers. I'll see if I can find any more tips for this week - couple games with some playoff implications make things a bit trickier than normal, but As of now, definitely playing over in the Atlanta/Montreal game.
  15. MLS Predictions > Sep 14th - 17th

    Atlanta/New England o3 (-120) This one is worth a punt in my eyes for certain. Atlanta had it's first match in the new stadium this past weekend against Dallas and they without a doubt could have put 6 in the net themselves. They had a PK denied by the dreaded Video Assistant. They hit 2 posts and a crossbar. They were absolutely flying around this new pitch. They had a packed stadium on a Sunday, the same time that the Atlanta Falcons NFL team is playing. It's very hard to describe how rabid this fanbase is - although the new stadium did drown out the crowd a bit. I'd even be tempted to play Atlanta on the handicap on this one if you're so inclined, but seemingly whenever i play a team laying a goal or more, they always seem to botch something at the end of the game, call it a jinx if you will.