dylanphan

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About dylanphan

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 05/04/71
  1. MLS Play-Off Predictions > Nov 30th & Dec 1st

    It would be a bit of a shock result if Toronto don't advance, at home, with the return of Giovinco and Altidore. A road draw was a good result for them. That being said, Columbus went into Atlanta which boasts a tremendous home field advantage, and advance through them on PK's. Columbus always undervalued and I'd suggest a play on them on a handicap or else under on total goals as I don't expect an open game again. Seattle has the other tie in a virtual death grip, with a road win and 2 road goals, and returning to home with one of the most significant home field advantages in MLS. They have a full squad to choose from. They were firmly in control of the first leg, with an early goal and then Houston went down a man, it wasn't much of a match really. Obviously Houston will need to attack to get at least 2 goals to advance. Seattle will really have no need to do much other then control possession and counter if need be. This is pretty much worst case scenario for Dynamo as they are a fast moving attacking side that love to strike on the counter. I don't see many opportunities for them here, however that will not dissuade me from taking a shot on the road team to win at 5.00 or better. The only thing that gives me some pause is I have absolutely no faith in the Houston back line, but still I'm not going to back a home side that needs nothing more than a draw or lose by more than a goal to advance. Should be a snooze fest unless Houston is able to get an early goal.
  2. MLS Play-Off Predictions > Nov 3rd - 6th

    Houston GK will be suspended for this game for an off field domestic abuse incident. More fuel for the Portland fire
  3. MLS Play-Off Predictions > Nov 3rd - 6th

    All four home sides are pretty heavily favored as to be expected. My initial thoughts as I generally wait till much closer to kickoff before sending in any bets Vancouver blew a beautiful opportunity at home in the first leg to get a result. They had to know Seattle was punch less, but they came out as under inspiring themselves, afraid to allow a road goal. That's pretty disappointing as I think you should always play for the win. Seattle will get two huge boosts, first their massive home crowd. And then they should have a few players that may be available and of course Dempsey off suspension. A bit strange they play this one 2 full days before the other games. Anyway, I think this one should be another dull, drab affair like the pacific northwest - look to the under if anything. I don't think Toronto is going to lose at home, barring something very dodgy. But, being that they already have the win and two away goals in their back pocket, I'm not sure how open they will play either. Very well would be happy with a draw and rest some guys late. Again, another low scoring affair more than likely, but I would give a slight nod to Toronto at -135 or better simply because Giovinco such a threat on any set piece. Other two games have much more interest to me. The first leg of the Columbus/NYFC was a real cracker, and if you didn't watch the game, do not let the 4-1 scoreline fool you. NY played down a man most of the 2h and blew at least 2 golden opportunities in the 1h, including a rare David villa sitter he racked off the post. That being said, Columbus has been impressive in that they advance at Atlanta and then came home where they enjoy a nice home field crowd and just played open and free soccer against NY, netting 4. That last one really was a big goal, because NY could have advance with a 2-0 home result, but the late late goal really puts the burden on NY to open up. NY home field is smallish, and could clog things up a bit, but I'll be honest, I think we get a home win and at least 3 goals in this one. NY 3-1 seems about right, so put me on the home side at -135 or better as well as a touch on the handicap as I think they win by 2. IF you only watch one MLS game this weekend, this should be the one. Houston also played uncharacteristically tentative at home in the first leg. But, a few notes. First they had a 1h pk overturned by video assistant. That could have really turned the game. Second Houston is without two first choice defenders in DelaGarza and Leonardo, so they couldn't open things up too much as a road goal may have spelled curtains. They are starting Phllipe Sendeross (yes, that Sendeross) as their main CB and he's about as agile as a rocking chair. Plus he got hit with an early yellow so really had to watch himself. The Houston defense is going to get abused in this leg and it's going to get ugly. Portland is a fast team, and play on an artificial, slick surface at home where they really play uptempo. And while the Houston mf and forwards to like to press and play a higher tempo game, well, there are goign to be a lot of opportunities for Portland to take advantage of this if they get caught. Honestly, Portland wins here easy, 3-0.
  4. Europa League Predictions > Nov 2nd

    Here are my thoughts on today's matches. I cannot see backing Koln today, especially at very short odds. They are bottom of the Bundelisga with 2 points in 10 games, and only scored 4 goals in those 10 games. Surviving relegation is goal 1a and 1b for this club right now and anyone with any type of knock needs to be sat. Team came into the campaign with high hopes, and have thoroughly disappointed. Opening Europa league fixture at Arsenal saw thousands of Koln fans 'invade' the Emirates and brought a huge atmosphere with them. Unfortunately, the fans do not play the game, and the team lost 1-3. Since that time it's been loss after loss after loss. Koln is a decent defensively shaped team and are difficult to break down, but if you don't score goals yourself, it doesn't matter. I will be all over the visitors today and find Bate at +0.5 at +120 to be a great bet. As luck would have it this weekend Koln face Hoffenheim in Bundlesiga. Hoffenheim is a team I do fancy, they play a nice brand of soccer (yes, I'm American), but again were just shy of Champions League play and got knocked down to Europa League. I think their focus must be on the league again however this is a group up for grabs for them and they are probably the best team in this group. The knocked around Istanbul first leg, but Hoffenheim play a much better game at home than on the road. Istanbul has had a nice start to the season in Super League play, although they do sit at the bottom of the group here. If anything I think Hoffenheim can get a few goals here, and I would play over 2.5, but small bet only. Lazio is playing some great offensive soccer, and this is a classic matchup of a team in great form vs a team in disappointing form. Both teams are pretty safe to advance, but in this case, I am happy laying the handicap of -1 here with Lazio at -120 odds. Those are my three plays for today.
  5. MLS Play-Off Predictions > Oct 30th - Nov 1st

    I love Vancouver tonight at +142. They have to be brimming with confidence after the drubbing of SJ last match out in an elimination match. I think they should come in with that same attitude tonight, as they really do need a result before going to the return fixture at Seattle which enjoys one of the best home field advantages in the league, if not the very best. They have the added advantage of being able to face a very banged up Seattle team, also without their emotional leader in Dempsey who picked up a stupid red last match out. Seattle may well play for a scoreless draw as their offense should be completely impotent. And while a draw will not kill Vancouver here, You're getting a great price on a motivated home side playing a sub-optimal opponent. If you can't pull the trigger on this one, shouldn't be gambling in my opinion.
  6. MLS Play-Offs Predictions > Oct 25th - 27th

    Vancouver is definitely worth a bet at -125 or so. SJ is terrible and on the road this season boasted a lofty 11 goals for vs 39 goals against. Anything can happen in knock out round for sure, but this one seems to be a banker I also do like Houston against SKC a bit too at +122, just a few things to keep in mind here. This will be the third time these two teams have met in the past 2 weeks. The first match was at Houston and it really was a must win for Houston. They did, but on a late own goal against in what was a very even match. BUT, this game came just after the international break and both teams were missing a number of key players. The next game was at KC and Houston really only needed a point to secure a playoff spot. They were vastly outplayed here, but this was expected as they were happy to end with a 0-0 game. So, this may lead you to go with a well coached, very well formed defensive away team. But, Houston enjoys playing at home where they had the best conference home record (just 1 loss in 17 games) and a robust 43-17 goal differential. This will also be the first playoff game for Houston since 2013 so I expect a strong performance and a home win. In the east I expect goals galore in Atlanta. so that is an easy over play. Chicago and NYRB is really a toss up in my eyes. I'd probably take the higher odds with the road side and maybe a touch on the draw if you want to play this one.
  7. Premier League Predictions > Oct 14th - 16th

    You may well be right. Honestly, I could see Mourinho not even starting Mata here and playing Blind and Herrera I don't think Young will feature tbh. I could see something like DDG Valencia-Bailly-Jones-Blind Herrera-Matic Rashford - Miky - Martial Lukaku Either way, I cannot not see a few goals here and am quite shocked over is so low. I know United has a great defense but they have played quite a few offensively challenged teams to start the league (Palace, Everton, Southampton, Leicester, West Ham, Swansea and Stoke - these teams have combined for just 22 goals between them in their last 35 games combined ffs). I'll take a strong play at BTTS tomorrow morning at -140. Really think this will hit before HT.
  8. Premier League Predictions > Oct 14th - 16th

    This for me too pretty strong. Pool always attacking at Anfield and averaging 2gpg including of course 4 vs Arsenal. And while you may think that 4 is skewing the average, they had 35 attempts vs Burnley and 21 vs Crystal Palace, could have easily scored 2-3 more in either contest. United is without Fellaini and Carrick, so they will probably opt to play Blind in the defensive mf role. And while Blind is very good, he is very different player. I have to think United will also feature Herrera and Mata with Pogba out, with Herrera and Blind tasked with running all over the pitch, while Mata will lead the attack. Game may not be wild open, but with the firepower that both sides have in the likes of Rashford, MArtial, Lukaku, Firmino, Countinho, Sturridge, I mean it's just hard not to see plenty of chances. I'll probably play 1h over too depending on lineups and I think if we can get 1 before 20', we can easily see 3-4 in this game.
  9. MLS Predictions > Oct 12th - 16th

    Here are a few thoughts for you to chew on in the days ahead. In years past, things really start tightening up the last few fixtures as teams are vying for playoff spots/positioning. This year the same can be said in the Western conference, as with 2 games remaining, 6 points separate 7 teams from spots 2-8, with two of those missing out on the playoffs. Houston picked up a massive 3 points at home last night with a late own goal and their next game is away to the team they just beat, KC. A draw would honestly suit both of these teams just fine, and both teams will be bolstered by the return of a number of national players that were out on qualifying. This game will almost assuredly be an UNDER 2.5 play for me, with a sprinkle on the draw line. Along those lines, Unders also in Seattle and Vancouver games too. The east is a bit more open up with all playoff positions settled up. But, a few nice games this weekend for goals. Toronto/Montreal is always a tough fought match and I see no reason why Montreal will sit back here. This one should have goals in it. Chicago/Philly game is another I'll be looking at goals. Lastly NYRB and Atlanta could have potential for a lot of goals, however, both teams may be inclined to rest some key players for the playoffs here. I almost always check for lineups before sending in anything big,but those are the games I would lean to play.
  10. MLS Predictions > Sep 30th & Oct 1st

    Atlanta on the road Saturday and Almiron is knicked up so no play there. BUT, if he gets back healthy, play overs and ATL on 10/3 with both fists full as this should be a banker for sure. Toronto and NYRB should have some goals in it, but honestly need to see lineups as Toronto missing some key players and with playoffs around the corner, don't see much need to rush them back. For me there are two plays this weekend Chicago Fire already down to +106 as opposed to the +120 posted at opening and rightfully so. Fire this year really turned things around and are a playoff team. With an 11-2-2 home record against a NYCFC team that really just has a bunch of big names and isn't that great, no reason to not play them getting + money here. Other play will be o3 in the Houston/Minnesota game. Houston only lost 1x at home all year and coming off a very disappointing draw vs LA Galaxy midweek, they will need this game to get in the playoffs for sure. Houston plays a very attacking aggressive style and at home they are always particularly good for goals averaging over 2.5 gpg. Meanwhile Minnesota are not particularly defensive stalwarts on the road where they allow over 2.5 gpg to the home side themselves. So we have a good home offensive team and two weak defensive teams, this line up to see a 3-2, 4-2 type game
  11. MLS Predictions > Sep 20th - 25th

    Oh, Atlanta home games overs are bankers. I'll see if I can find any more tips for this week - couple games with some playoff implications make things a bit trickier than normal, but As of now, definitely playing over in the Atlanta/Montreal game.
  12. MLS Predictions > Sep 14th - 17th

    Atlanta/New England o3 (-120) This one is worth a punt in my eyes for certain. Atlanta had it's first match in the new stadium this past weekend against Dallas and they without a doubt could have put 6 in the net themselves. They had a PK denied by the dreaded Video Assistant. They hit 2 posts and a crossbar. They were absolutely flying around this new pitch. They had a packed stadium on a Sunday, the same time that the Atlanta Falcons NFL team is playing. It's very hard to describe how rabid this fanbase is - although the new stadium did drown out the crowd a bit. I'd even be tempted to play Atlanta on the handicap on this one if you're so inclined, but seemingly whenever i play a team laying a goal or more, they always seem to botch something at the end of the game, call it a jinx if you will.
  13. Alright lads, time for some winners. Very happy with the results yesterday - I'm a United supporter so no money put down, just enjoy a win. Today we'll need to have some good financial results. I do believe Spurs get a result today so I will play them for the win at +125 (1 unit to win 1.25). I also am playing RB Lepzig/Monaco o1 (First half) -140 (1.40 to make 1.00). This is going to be a huge match for the German squad and I think they will come out all guns blazing as they really do love attacking. This will also play into Monaco's hands a bit as they are a good counter attacking squad. I really have a hard time NOT seeing goals in this one, and the way I like to play these is a First half bet to get to two goals. Odds are a touch higher than I would have preferred to play them, but I can see this drifting even higher. Both teams should be at full strength, should be a cracker here. Feyenoord +550 (first half). (1.00 to make 5.50) This is simply a spite bet on a line I feel is totally disrespectfully for the home side. Now I know Eredivise rates significantly lower than the premier league, but if you haven't been paying attention you'd think Feyenoord is a mid table team. I can't imagine City would be favored this highly over Ajax or PSV in Holland. This Dutch side won the damn league last year, with a +61 goal differential. To put that in perspective, I BELIEVE the only teams with greater GD's last year in Europes top leagues were Monaco, Bayern Munich, Barcelona and Real Madrid. That's pretty lofty company. They went undefeated at home last year with a +45 goal differential in 17 games (I'll let you do the math but that's pretty dominant). And they've started this season with 4 wins in a row already with a 12-3 goal difference. All that adds up to a very good squad. They are at home. City has more talent overall sure, but if you give me this squad and ask them to fight for the first 45 minutes and maybe come to half time with a 1-0 lead and I'm getting 5 1/2 to 1, I'm probably placing this bet every day.
  14. I haven't delved too much into yet, as the game is tomorrow, but I do think I like Spurs quite a bit to get a win. I disagree that Spurs do not have a big enough squad as they've made a number of signings and as it's early in the season, they will not have to rotate much. Spurs have a problem that Alli is suspended, yes. But between the likes of Son, Erickson and if it's not August, you can expect Kane to score at least once. I think Spurs defense will be a tough nut to crack too. Dortmund always play better at home, and they are also a team with issues with a number of first team players out with injuries, mainly Reus and Schurrle. Their expected midfield of Goetze, Sahin and Castro are not exactly world class in my eyes and Pulisic is severely overated. I don't know if they will get a goal against a very organized and disciplined Spurs team. This is a difficult group and a win here would be massive for either side, but moreso for Spurs as it's a home game. I'd expect Dortmund to be happy with a draw with the number of players missing, and with this being the case, I'll definitely take a shot with Spurs. I'll see if I can come up with any bets for today's matches, but I'm usually a horror show in CL play.
  15. Premier League Predictions > Aug 11th - 13th

    I'll tell you one thing, United should be very difficult to score against this year. And Matic is a great fit. A Mourinho favorite. A destroyer to play in front of the back four. Fit, tireless, big. The Matic signing will also help in a number of other ancillary ways. First, should allow Pogba a lot more freedom to get forward and be a more dynamic offense force. If you have a midfield of Pogba, Herrera, Mkhitayrin and Matic, you have a great blend of offensive and defensive midfielders, as well as a lot of energy in the likes of Herrera. Further, if you look at that midfield you see the names Fellaini and Carrick not there. Fellaini is a dreg and just a waste of space. Carrick is a fine link between the defense and offense, a smart player, but he's lost almost any speed he had and needs plenty of rest between starts to be at his most effective. The backline is decent enough. Bailly has the makings of a very good CB, and then you have the likes of Smalling, Lindeloff and maybe even Jones to rotate in. Long gone are the days of Rio and Vidic, but this central defense should be quite good all the same. The full backs are not at full strength, with long term injury concerns of Shaw and Rojo, but Valencia is still very good. Darmian, Jones (again) Ashley Young, maybe an Aurier signing should be good enough. And in goal you have DDG who is proving time and time again to be one of the best GK's in the world. Now, I know preseason pseudo-tournaments are not necessarily a great measure of just about anything, but in the ICC tournament, United was decent enough. They didn't allow a goal to Man City, and were much the better side. I was at this match, and the score was not indicative of how much better they were. Now, that City lineup was sub optimal, and I'm not sure what Pep was thinking with his first half lineup, but the second half City still had nothing to offer. They drew Real Madrid 1-1, and the only goal they allowed there was a howler of a penalty by Lindeloff. And then they played a strong Barca side and only did allow a single goal, Barca had a number of more early chances, but as the game went on, I feel United was just as good. United was terrific last year defensively and I think this year will be just as solid. I'd expect many, many unders unless they can find some goals from someone other than Lukaku (perhaps this is the year that Lingaard or Martial put it together to go with Rashford who is always seemingly dangerous). I don't think United are the best team in the premier league, I think City still should be, and I do favor Spurs chances quite a bit even moving into the new stadium. But United should be in the mix for the first time in seemingly a good long while.