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About dylanphan

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  • Birthday 05/04/1971

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  1. Usually the second week gives an opportunity or two to take a punt on a team with long odds, however this weeks fixtures are extremely tricky in my eyes. I generally will try to take an overreaction to the market as a chance to make a play, but I'm not seeing it this week at all. I'll go through a few games quickly. Liverpool should smash Southampton, I to have Southampton tipped for the drop, and Liverpool is obviously a strong side, however with Allison out and now potentially Adrian out well, I'm going to shy away by playing short odds here on the road side. This game screams pass to me so I will not be involved at all. City/Spurs is the marquis matchup this week and rightfully so. Two top sides. And this is a chance to play a small overreaction. City went to London and stomped West Ham. Spurs at home struggled mightily against newly promoted Aston Villa. So now City at home are at -270 to Spurs? I'm afraid that's too high. You can get Spurs at +0.25 at +150 or so and that seems a pretty good punt. But, I am passing as Spurs still a bit short handed and again, I just think there are better spots to put my money to work. Arsenal/Burnley could get my interest a bit. Arsenal played a sloppy opening fixture vs Newcastle and squeeked out a 1-0 win. But they played a weakened side. And it was a dreary rainy day at Newcastle. Burnley opened up their slate with a convincing 3-0 win vs a shit Southampton side, but I still think Burnley can make some noise here. Arsenal's defense is nothing to write home about, they play an attacking game and Ashley Barnes seems to score every game. This game has a strong interest to me at over 2.5 and over 2.75 and I'll shop around. I think we get 3-4 goals here pretty easily. Everton/Watford is a very interesting early fixture. I like both teams quite a bit. I played both last week and was obviously quite disappointed in both results. Now, ordinarily I would come back and hit Everton heavily as they are at home and the odds look quite short as I'm only laying about -135 for a home win. BUT, with Watford losing so badly last week to an inferior Brighton side, I'm simply paring back here as I think the away side will come in with a chip on their shoulders. This is just a small, 1/4 unit play on the home side to win. Now I know at this point in time I'm putting you to sleep. However, the next two games will have some money in play. West Ham/Brighton. West Ham got crushed last week by City. This will happen. Brighton won 3-0 last week on the road. That is a bit of an aberration. Now, you are giving me West Ham at about +195 on the road. YES. This will be a play. I'll take them to win as well as DNB in parlays all day long. West Ham has a good side. They struggled last week, sure, but now I'm getting a massive overreaction from last week's results. Brighton in my eyes is a weak side. I'm getting near 2/1 for an away win with a superior side, who will be desperate to rebound and get points. This is exactly a kind of situation I'm hunting. Aston Villa/ Bournemouth. I watched Villas game, did not see much of the Bournemouth fixture, but tbh this game is a simply play. I'm taking u2.75 goals here all day. These teams are both going to not want to give away points early, so a draw will do each well. Villa playing their first home game in the premier league in years will surely be hopping, but with so many new faces in the side, it will take time to gel, Bournemouth will want to play a pragmatic game and keep it close. Honestly I think this game ends at 1-1 but I could see one team held to nil. Either way, Villa played good defense for almost 80 minutes at Spurs and I think they'll do the same here. Norwich City/Newcastle. Newcastle looked absolutely dreadful week one. And if you can't get up for the opening weekend, at home against a big side like Arsenal, well frankly I feel sorry for your supporters and your season prospects. That being said, I was expecting a bigger price on Norwich at home. But, at +120 or so, that's just not a big enough price for a home win. I do think the canaries will get the win, but I was fully expecting a +150 or so price against a bigger name. At this point I'd put a small punt on the home side, simply because I thought Newcastle was terrible and I don't see much prospect for immediate improvement. gluck
  2. Sundays fixtures: Leicester is too heavily favored in my eyes. Maguire is going to be a massive loss to the confidence of this team. I don't see why Wolves are so short, I mean they finished ahead of Leicester last year, no? Give me Wolves at +260 and DNB at +160 here all day. I don't think Wolves will finish as high as last year, but see no reason why they can't get a result here tomorrow. I like Arsenal quite a bit this year. Lacazette/PEA and now Pepe in the attack. Tierney and Luiz should be good gets in defense. It make take a few weeks for this team to find their best 11, but I think they should have no issues vs Newcastle this week. Losing Rafa is going to be a a huge issue for Newcastle. I don't usually put a full unit on a first weekend fixture, but Arsenal are in my eyes the best bet of the weekend. I will probably make a small bet on ManUnited this weekend, but in all honesty, this is a supporter bet more than anything else. Chelsea is going to feel the loss of Hazard for sure. United was able to keep Pogba which was key, and grabbed Maguire and AWB. They are at home, and I think they need a result. I'm really not sold at all on Ole as boss, but I'm not at all sold with Lampard as a manager either. I don't mind getting +125 here at home opening weekend.
  3. First week always tricky in my eyes. I try to keep it simple and don't play much early on. Here are my quick thoughts on Saturday's games West Ham/City - this game is just a huge pass for me. I've got City tipped to win the league and they are just a fantastic side. But, I do like West Ham quite a bit this year. A full year with Lanzini, Anderson hit his form late - and I love the Fornals and Haller pickups. But, will take a while for this team to congeal. Meanwhile, City pretty much the same as last year. Kompany and Delph gone, Rodri on, this team will be fantastic this year. Just the odds aren't right for any play to me. City will be content with a win, West Ham will want to play well, early game, probably a 2-1, 3-1 final but who knows. No play. Bournemouth/Sheffield United - this will be a small play. Both teams will want to do all they can to pickup points where they can. In my eyes, Sheffield United has not done near enough to improve their side to stay in the premier league. They should be relegated. Bournemouth at home at evs seems a great play here, but, just a small play nonetheless. Burnley/Southampton - Another game where I like the home side. I have also tipped Southampton to drop. They are a great feeder club, but dont do anything to improve themselves. Burnley at home is strong and Dyche is a great manager. Shop around, get a great price and anything above +175 or so is a good play in my eyes. Crystal Palace/Everton - CP is a team in flux yet again. Zaha doesn't want to be there and in my eyes, this is a club that just doesn't do enough to improve themselves at all. Sell AWB for a nice profit but who they bring in? Seems to me they are always losing players and never bringing in quality in return. Everton is a team that I absolutely loved their transfer season. Gomes, Delph, Kean and Iwobi in. Only significant loss was Gueye. I mean, this was probably the best business in the premier league this summer. But, this doesn't necessarily equate to immediate results. Either way, I'm all in on Everton this game if I can get +140 or better. Watford/Brighton - two years back, Watford finished a point above Brighton in the table. The last year, Watford may significant improvements, while Brighton stayed the same, and well Watford shot up the table, improved nearly 10 points and 5 positions, while Brighton fell to just 2 points above the drop. Watford looks to be about the same, and Brighton took action and brought in a number of players to help improve their side. I think this will take some time to gel so I like the home side here at evs or better.
  4. Paderborn game busted, but MY GOD, bless you Franfkfurt. Absolutely made my weekend here.
  5. Two games have my interest here tomorrow in Germany. First one, Paderborn vs St Pauli. Paderborn score for fun at home with 36 goals in 12 home matches. I'm not that smart, but that looks to be 3 goals per game. In fact, they've scored at LEAST 3 goals in 6 of their last 7 home games. St Pauli no slouches, sitting 4th in the table so I expect this to be a very competitive game. Team that is at home loves to score against another good team? to me that simply means goals. o1.5 1H +125 o3 -120 BIG BET The other game looks to be an absolute cracker is Frankfurt/Hoffenheim. For my money, Rebic/Jovic/Haller is the best attacking force right now in Bundesliga. Jovic top of the table with 15 goals scored and 5 assist, and Haller has chipped in 11 goals and 8 assists and Rebic is a super attacking presence too. This team is fun to watch. Hoffenheim is a super attacking team that seemingly comes at you from all angles. They can posses the ball, hit you on the counter or just play box to box with you, Hoffenheims problem is they are leaky in defense. I think both teams almost assuredly score in this game, and I'll take punts at o3, o3.5, o4 and o4.5. Usually when I anticipate high scoring games like this, they end 1-0 or 1-1 so buyer beware, but if this game gets to 5, Party at Dylanphans house next weekend.
  6. Going to wake up early, really looking forward to Spurs/Arsenal game. No strong lean in that match, but do feel Arsenal are being undervalued, taking them +0.5 would make sense. Be honest here, I think Poch is overrated as a manager. He has a nice system, has a keen eye for young talent, and gets a lot of his players so something certainly can be said for that, but his in game management is questionable. Case in point, Kane's first game back in what, 6 weeks against Burnley of all teams, and leaves him in for a full 90? Yeah, he scored a goal, that's well and good, but bigger fish to fry and Burnley tough at home. And then he was outmatched vs a struggling Chelsea side, and again Kane in for full game. Very questionable strikers brought in in the likes of Soldado, Llorente, et al, I'm not overwhelmed. Anyway, I fully expect Man United to stomp Southampton tomorrow. I'll play them 1H, on the handicap, hell, maybe even a -2 here. Two teams going in exact opposite directions, United's forms been top notch and they are at home, no reason to believe this is even close. I also do like Wolves here at home quite a bit, Cardiff on the road a bit of a horror show with just 9 goals scored in 13 matches. Wolves play a nice attacking style. I really do like Wolves to bounce back here after two disappointing performances, home cooking, I'll lay -0.75 here. Lastly, I really think Burnley getting a great price at home, seeing close to 2/1 for home win vs Palace. How soon we forget how great Burnley were at home last year? Burnley won 3 of their last 4 at home with the other a draw, including a win vs Spurs. This is a good price, definitely worth a punt. :cheers:
  7. Well done Neubs. Between you and me we wiped clean on the early slate of games
  8. Borrusia Gladbach are super strong at home. They are a very good team with tons of attacking options and have won 11 in a row at home. See no reason not to back them here at -125 vs Augsburg. Nurnberg are the worst team I have seen play by far. They are certain to get relegated. They offer nothing from open play in attack and try to just defend defend defend and get a set piece. Terrible team Mainz at home should take care of them and again very generous price in my eyes at -120
  9. I'm going for o2.5 goals here in the Fulham/Spurs game Spurs are super thin, sure. But they are not out of options fully. They will need guys like Alli, Lamella and Erickson to step up. The loss of Son and Sissoko are really going to leave them super short in the mf and will make them susceptible on the counter for sure. Sessegnon on the bench today but Babel playing and while he was terrible in the premier league, he was actually quite good in Turkey. We'll see. Spurs also always have a chance to score on a set piece. Trippier is outstanding and Erickson no slouch. Spurs need points here as they have three teams breathing down their neck for the top 4. They have a lot of games coming up too. I think we get an open game 2-2 final.
  10. Okay, I sat out the first few weeks to watch some games and get a feel for things. Trust me when I saw the eyes lie, but I think I get too antsy early in the season and press but after just seeing how things play out I get a better feel for teams. Fulham/Watford o2.5 (-115) Watford a bit of shock here sitting near top of the table and just one loss to United, a game they did not play that poorly. Watford a sneaky counter attacking team and they average at 2gpg. Fulham not much to lose in this one, no reason for them not to attack. I really think both teams score in this one and it wouldn't shock me to see Fulham get a win here, but I played it a bit more to the vest and just go for goals. Burnley DNB +115 Burnley sitting bottom of the table here, and just got steam rolled last game out @ wolves. They absolutely need points here and have an opponent much more on their level. Their two home games so far have been vs United and the aforementioned Watford, this is a game Burnley desperately need a result. I'm getting plus odds for DNB play on a home side against an opponent on par, that's too good to pass up. Cardiff/City pass All due respect Stevie Day, but this is a bad matchup here for Cardiff. City coming off a very disappointing CL result, I can see a game that gets out of hand. I can't see Cardiff wanting to open up, and I'm not laying this kind of handicap on the road but a 0-4 result would not surprise me at all. I think Cardiff will do well to get away with an 0-2 result, but I've no interest getting involved in this game. Crystal Palace/Newcastle draw +260 Newcastle have 1 point after 5 games here and are another desperate side. So soon we forget what CP lost what their first 7 matches last year and did not get relegated? Newcastle cannot well afford this kind of start, so I do expect a strong performance. Quite honestly I see this as a tight fought match where Newcastle need a win, but an away draw will suit them fine. CP with just 4 goals in 5 matches, and their wins are against a newly promoted Fulham and a bottom dwellar in Huddersfield, a point for both sides I think will be good. Leicesters/Huddersfield o2 (-145) This one was tough to hit submit. Every Leicester game gets goals. Huddersfield is going to want to play compact. In the end I decided with the home side going for goals we'd have a better chance of getting to 3 (or 4) then not getting any. I think Huddersfield wants to get a result here too, so 1-1 wouldn't surprise me, but that would at least get me the push. Liverpool/Southampton pass Hard pass here. Pool playing against their feeder club, coming off a huge CL win, sitting at a perfect 5-0 start to the premier league season, at home. All arrows point to massive home win. Well, a) I hate Liverpool, b) I cannot stand Liverpool and c) there is no chance in hell I'm ever laying 2 goals with a team I am rooting against. United/Wolves o2.5 (-120) Wolves here is a massive dog, but no way in hell should they be. Have you seen Wolves play? They've been wonderful. Should have had at least a half dozen last game vs Burnley. Their last three matches are two wins and a draw, the draw vs City. That's top notch. Now, United do come in brimming with confidence too, winning their last three. But let's face it, Burnley, Young Boys and Watford not exactly world beaters, and they were not that impressive vs Watford. but United is at home, without any major injury concerns, and Mourinho a bit under the gun still as they are sitting mid-table early, that's the only reason I am not taking the near +550 for away win. I do fancy goals here as both teams should score and probably a home win. g'luck
  11. Very tricky fixture today at Old Trafford. After a pragmatic, 0-0, negative football draw at Sevilla, United not in the best of spots here. Sevilla get a goal and United need score 2 to advance which could be very difficult proposition. But, I am going to try not to overthink this one too much. Sevilla a good side, but honestly United much much better. The only team to come into the Theater of Dreams and come away with a victory since January 2016 has been Man City. Not a single other visitor has won there. Sevilla does not offer the same kind of threat that City does by any means. United is not going to win the league this year. However, a Champions League win would be a massive boost here and really a feather in Mourinho's cap. I can't see United not advancing and even though the is a bit steep, I'll go with United -165 to win (Extra time and pk's are such a crap shoot,I think they really need to win in regular time). I'll also take a shot with exact score of United 2-1 at +625
  12. Okay lads, I'm gonna make this write up the night before the match here in the states, and I'll also preface this by stating I'm a United supporter big time. I generally don't like to send bets in before I see lineups, but I'll do my best to prognosticate this match beforehand. There is no love loss between these two teams for sure. And I'm also fairly sure that both coaches know that neither side is catching City this year for the premier league title, so a top 4 spot is a key consideration. Liverpool's form has been top notch. Not only in the PL, but easing through the CL with a resounding thumping of Porto. All in all this has to be marked down as a great season for Liverpool, because let's face it, other than Arsenal can any big club in England have a sadder recent history? A league cup in 2012, an FA cup in 2006, this team is starved for silverware. But Klopp come in and this team is really fun to watch. Salah, Firmino, Sane, all fantastic in my eyes. This team has a realistic shot of making semi's in CL and top 3 in premier league. Few more pieces and well, they may challenge for another cup title real soon. But, United are not going to lose tomorrow at OT. Mourinho been fantastic against top 6 sides in England this year and I see no reason for this game to be different. United missing a few players, sure, but other than Martial I think we'll see a top side out there. It's true that United have Sevilla to deal with mid week, but this is an early Saturday game, and the next game isn't till Tuesday and its at United. In fact, United don't need leave Manchester until end of April ffs. Next 4 games at home, and then their road game is City, so that's 6 weeks in Manchester. Rest/travel is not going to be an issue. Sanchez has had a few games now under his belt with his new teammates, so I'm certainly hoping that will help him acquaint himself better because hes been pretty terrible, but with Martial not in the squad, he'll have the left all to himself now. Lukaku in the middle, Rashford on the right maybe and Pogba getting the ball forward. Look, United gonna at the very least draw here and frankly I think they win outright. Only team I wouldn't back United to get points from at OT is City and Liverpool is not City United pk +101 United to win +194
  13. Waiting on lineups here to finalize bets, but on the early matches: AC Milan/Arsenal under 2.5 seems a good bet for me. Arsenal relying on Welbeck to score, well, enough said. AC Milan have a plenty solid side and I'm sure will be pleased to not allow a road goal here. 1-0, 2-0 result seems right. I do really like Marseille to get a result at home too. If Aduriz is absent, this will be a bet from me for sure. CSKA/Lyon under 2.5 seems another good one, especially if Fekir is out for Lyon. Generally speaking, when I like unders, expect plenty of goals. Will try to stop by later on thoughts for the second wave of matches.