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About real55555

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 11/21/87
  1. 2018/19 Premier League Ante-Post Betting

    So latest news is that Liverpool will sign Alisson from AS Roma very soon, terms have been agreed. With Alisson I think they have to regarded as serious contender for the title next season. Van Dijk looks solid, Lovren on a high after the world cup run, Keita in the middle of the park with Henderson and Wijnaldum, and nothing more need to be said about their wingers and striker. If they can keep their first 11 fit, they will give Man City a run for their money. However their squad depth looks a bit thin to be honest. This will probably be their undoing if they fail to win the title again.
  2. 2018 German Grand Prix

    I'm predicting a Hamilton win here should things go to plan. The Merc looked really quick in the previous race, and are on similar race pace with old mediums against Vettel and Kimi who are on fresher and softer tyres. But anything can happen as shown in the last race. Billy, any safety car stats for Hockenheim?
  3. BTTS Trial

    Keep it up, following with interest.
  4. Thanks for the suggestions, probably looking for smth less geeky or less 'maths heavy' as I do not like to over complicate my system, but looking towards something more enjoyable to read. But I'll check out your last suggestion "Build your own expert system" Thanks again.
  5. Not sure if this is under the right section but here it goes. As per title, looking for some books or reading materials related to sports betting. Can be knowledge about way to improve chances of winning in sports betting, or even insights into how bookmakers operate, or stories of fixing matches in some fishy leagues or anything that you came across that you enjoyed reading that is related to sports betting. Thanks.
  6. 2018/19 Premier League Ante-Post Betting

    Manchester City's odds looked a bit too low for me actually. Wouldn't bet on them with that kind of odds. With the odds shown, I'd go for Liverpool and Arsenal. We've all see last season when Liverpool played well, they are unbeatable. If they can keep their front three fit throughout the season and have a bit more consistency, I think they have a real shout at the title. Arsenal at odds of 29 is crazy. They are genuine outsiders, but I think with a new manager and new signings coming in, they could have a chance of challenging for the title. Now that they have signed Leno, Sokratis, Lichsteiner and Torreira, I think there is a chance that they can solve last season's shortcomings which is an error prone keeper, leaky defence and a soft midfield.
  7. I think I created a MONSTER!

    Sorry to see what is going on in this thread but please continue updating
  8. URUGUAY VS FRANCE Uruguay - They haven't looked too impressive to me until their last game against Portugal. After 4 games, I can see that they have a strong attack with Cavani and Suarez, solid defense marshaled by Godin, but an average midfield and goalkeeper. Still the good thing about them is that they only need few chances to score with Suarez/Cavani. France - Looked very dull in the groups stages but came alive in the Round of 16 against Argentina. Scored a couple of goals but mainly due to poor defending from Argentina in my opinion. France has the best squad in this world cup in terms of individuals, but then I can see they are tend to go to sleep in certain periods during the game Verdict: I'll say a narrow win for Uruguay for this quarter final tie. BRAZIL VS BELGIUM Brazil - Brazil has shown that they are able to carve out victories without playing that well. In actual fact they've not played too badly after four games at this world cup. Belgium - World class players but without a world class coach. They have good attacks but poor defense as shown in games against Tunisia and Japan, conceding easy/simple goals in my opinion. Verdict: I'll say a comfortable victory for Brazil in this match. ENGLAND VS SWEDEN England - Looked dull against Colombia. Would not have scored if not for the penalty, but defensively solid against the Colombians. Sweden - Looked solid defensively and dangerous on the attack against the Swiss. They have no star player other than Forsberg which I think is a plus for this team, which mean everyone is on level terms and battling for the team and not accommodating any star player. Their height will be an advantage both defending and attacking set pieces. Verdict: Sweden to go through to the next round CROATIA VS RUSSIA Croatia - World class midfielders in Modric and Rakitic in the middle flanked by Perisic on the wing. Looked uninspiring at times but if the midfield is able to click, they can beat anyone in this world cup. Russia - Probably the most average squad Russia has ever had at a world cup but they have defied expectations by reaching the last 8. Home support maybe? But I cant see them winning this game against Croatia. I believe they will park the bus again like they did against Spain and hope to get to penalty shooutout to have a chance against the Croatians. Verdict: Croatia to win
  9. Inplay football data

    yes I do agree it is very hard to make any profit from pre KO markets, and in-play does offer a better value and higher chance of making a profit out of betting. The only thing is that it will be more time consuming depending on how you analyse. For me watching the actual play is the best as it can tell you the tempo of the game, the intensity, aggressiveness, the tactics etc.
  10. BTTS Trial

    Maybe try it with the Over 2 goals market? or for the more adventurous ones maybe use it for the over 2.5 goals market? Some ideas but probably you guys have thought it through as well...
  11. With the introduction of VAR, I can see that referees in this WC tend not to make a decision on penalty unless he is very sure of it (although some were overruled after consulting VAR). So they leave the onus on the VAR team to inform him whether he needs to review the incident inside the box. In the past, referee only gives penalty if it is an 'obvious' foul, in the sense that shirt pulling or some minor wrestling during corner kicks or free kicks are negligible, but now if the player makes a scene out of it, and if the VAR team deemed it as an incident worth reviewing, the referee might not want to give a pk but with millions of people watching at the referee whether inside the stadium or through the tv screen, a foul is a foul and if he review it through VAR, then he has to give the penalty.
  12. No football match give 475/1 or 500/1 odds even in the last minute of a match . The highest I've seen is 100/1 to 120/1 and that team is losing by 3 goals with just 5-10 minutes left. Most likely the odds are erroneous but I believe they should've sort that out way earlier. I've experienced bets that are pending for 2-3 days because of this error, and also bets that have been paid out but within 30mins - 1hour or so retracted back to pending bets. Luckily all the cases are paid out correctly in the end.
  13. Hi Giraldi, any chance I can have VIP license for the CGM bet software? Thank you in advance.

    1. giraldi


      Sorry, for the late response. I just went in a short vacation...

      Please write on my thread then send me your user code using the CONTACT form on my web site. I will activate a VIP license for you.




    2. real55555


      Cheers Giraldi, hope you had a good time during your vacation.

      Will do that after work, thanks mate.

  14. 2018 British Grand Prix

    Starting following this formula one thread recently but I myself have betted on F1 for 6-7 years now. As far as I can remember, it has been Red Bull dominance followed by Mercedes dominance and only in the past 1-2 seasons Ferrari and Red Bulls have managed to steal 2-3 race wins per season. My opinion is that there has never been good value in betting for race winners other than the dominant team which is Mercedes (less so this season but still favourite on most tracks). Silverstone is not a short track, which means the Merc have a longer lap to carve out their lead in qualifying. Normally I'd only bet for Red Bull outright race win after qualifiying as most likely they will have better odds as they qualify behind the Ferrari/Mercedes. Meanwhile if I want to bet on Ferrari before qualifying, it'll depends on how difficult is it to overtake on that particular track. Back to the British Grand Prix, Mercedes looked strong after their engine upgrade, but their weakness is still the same. As long as they are in the lead, they are untouchable. But once they are following other cars in similar tyre condition, they are having difficulty to overtake.
  15. The Stats Don't Lie

    1. When the value doesn't match with your system's expected value (this is how i called it), why don't you go the other way round i.e. Go under 1.5 goals. Normally when there's no value for one outcome means the other outcome should have more value. 2. Still goes back to some of the comments posted earlier in this thread. You need to get a substantial amount of sample to have a good picture of whether there's value or this strategy will turn into a profit. I believe every system will have good and bad streaks at some time, so if your sample size is too small, you will either turned a profitable system into a losing one because of small sample size or the other way round. My advice is 200-300 matches of sample size will give you an indication whether you should continue to do the trial, and to confirm whether your system is a profitable one, I'd say a minimum of 1000 matches sample is required, eve though some people still deem this as insufficient. It all depends on your ROI. 3. Try to keep your system/strategies simple so that you can get a lot of matches that fit the criteria for you to do your trial.