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Pep004 last won the day on February 7 2017

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About Pep004

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  1. Juventus v Real Madrid; 20:45 The first match of one of most interesting duels in this part of the competition will be played at Allianz Stadium in Torino and I think that Juventus cannot afford to lose at home. Goin on Santiago Bernabeu with negative would minimize their chances. With Pjanić and Benatia suspended, will probably see Chiellini and Barzagli as a center back duo, while De Sciglio and Alex Sandro should cover fullback positions. With Khedira and Matuidi in center of midfield, they will have big defensive support and I see Real Madrid hardly finding spaces between the lines today. With offered odds, I see value on Juventus +0,25 with odds around 1,90. I think that bookies are underestimating the home pitch advantage here. I agree that match can easily go both ways, but once again, I cannot see Italians losing this match and +0,25 is bringing us half profit in case of the draw. Zidane rested some players over the weekend. It will be interesting to see if Bale "bought" his place in starting eleven with the good performance against Las Palmas or not. We will for sure see Cristiano Ronaldo back, but the questions are positions of Benzema and the 3rd forward or attacking midfielder. Benzema, Bale, Isco, Asensio, Vazquez,... three of those five will stay on the bench. In any case, Real will have a strong lineup, but even though they are in series of wins, I'm still not convinced in their performances. In my opinion, with a bit of luck, the first match in Paris could turn up totally differently. Will Real have this "sportive luck" once again, or it will go on another side this time?
  2. Russia v France; 17:50 Both teams disappointed in last friendly match. While Russia has lost against Brazil with 3-0, France has lost against Colombia, after leading with 2-0. France: The disappointment was for sure bigger on the French side, as their leader from the bench Didier Deschamps has one of the most talented and wide squads in the history of the country. He said that result won't stop his process of preparations for World Cup and that he will change several things for today's match. Pavard and Hernandez could take the lateral positions in defense, while Koscielny might jump in instead of Varane who is slightly injured and who isn't impressed with his performance against Colombia. An expected formation is 4-3-3 with Kante, Pogba, and Rabiot in midfield. If so, then from my point of view, France will start with the strongest possible midfield. Kante will be in charge of tackles, running and keeping support covering backs of Rabiot and Pogba. This position will give much more freedom to Paul and as he is in pretty strange position in Manchester, I am sure that he cannot wait to start the match on position which suits him the best. Rabiot has already shown that he is becoming one of the best box-to-box midfielders and in my opinion, he should be preferred over Matuidi. What bothers me the most about this selection is that Deschamps is still forcing to play with Giroud. True, he is scoring, winning some fights, but the question here is. How much slower is the attack of France with him in the lineup? In my opinion - enormously. He could be used as a joker from the bench if "youngsters" won't prevail as he can offer a different style of playing, but in my opinion, France can play way faster without him and therefore be much more dangerous, especially against teams who are playing with physical defenders. Expected attacking trio is Martial, Mbappe and Dembele. With Martial and Dembele they will have an enormous advantage in pace regarding the opponent. Russia: Even though Cherchesov will probably set-up the 5-4-1 formation, I expect troubles on flanks for the Russian side. They won't be able to count on services of three regular players - midfielders Zobin and Kuzyayev and defender Kambolov, who have all returned to their clubs due to injuries. Even though they are expected to play with 5 players in defensive line, Cherchesov cannot count on some regulars as Dzhikiya and Vasin both having torn ligaments this year. That means that positions which were usually taken by experienced Ignashevich and Beresutzkiy brothers, who have all retired from national football are still under the question. For today's match, the expected defensive line is - Smolnikov, Koudriachov, Granat, Neustädter, Kombarov, while Dzagoev, Glouchakov, Golovine, and Miranchouk should be positioned behind the lone striker Smolnikov. It might happen that the formation will be 5-3-1-1 with Miranchouk playing behind Smolnikov, but regarding the team of France, I expect Cherchesov trying to close gaps on flanks as much as possible. Betting perspective: with only 4 matches before the WC, all of them are crucially important. Players will try to do their best to prove themselves and even though that might be a problem of France as they have a bunch of talented players, Deschamps is stressing out that what is important for him is a whole team - so how the team works together and not the individuals. Midfield is still the one deciding about the possession, about how smooth the buildup will be, the transition, everything and in this match, I think that France should have an enormous advantage. They are one of the biggest if not the biggest favorite for winning the World Cup, but they will need to prove that on the pitch. Individually, those two teams cannot be compared and even though the match will be played in St. Petersburg, I think that France won't disappoint once again. Asian handicap -1 with odds around 2,00 seems valuable. Another interesting bet, maybe even better if lineups will really be as expected is in France to win the first half with odds above 2,05.
  3. Barcelona v Chelsea / PICK: Barcelona -1,5 @2,51 Pinnacle 1/10 Barcelona will miss injured midfielder Denis Suarez and fullback Semedo, while Coutinho has no right to play in CL as he already played for Liverpool this season. Chelsea is coming to Barcelona without defender David Luiz and midfielder Barkley. Short preview: even though Barcelona isn’t playing with a high percentage of possession as we were used to in last decade, there is no doubt that they will be in possession tonight. Even though the result of Chelsea isn’t perfect and goalless draw isn’t enough for them to qualify on, they prefer their style, letting the ball to the opponent and trying to exploit their strength with quick counters. It’s highly possible that Conte will start with one of his tall guys Morata or Giroud from the first minute and try to get something more from set-pieces and crosses, but in general, I am pretty sure that they won’t open themselves too much. Barcelona is playing differently as we were used to, for me personally, they are playing with strange tactics due to players they have,… Still, see Barcelona scoring the first goal in this match, and when Chelsea will open slightly, their defense will be reduced and Barcelona will have plenty of space to finish the match, raising their lead to two goals difference. I am aware that match can go in either way, but I see value in odds above 2,40 for Barcelona -1,5 (to win at least 2 goals difference).
  4. admin please delete this post
  5. @Tiffy my biggest mistake in this pick was, that I was talking mostly about Arsenal... seeing some positive things in a match against City, but I totally misjudged the home side (and obviously expected way too much of positive energy from Arsenal as well). My biggest problem when analyzing PL matches is that I have a point of view only from matches of Man City, and that's pretty much irrelevant as only a few sides (IF) can press and outplay someone as they can. That's also why my record in PL is only a few units in profit,... Should read this thread more often, as some of you guys are describing some teams and situations very precisely.
  6. Brighton v Arsenal; 14:30 Brighton will miss long-term injured Sidwell. Arsenal cannot count on defender Monreal, midfielder Cazorla and forward Lacazette. Midfielder Wilshere is questionable. Short preview: Arsenal lost twice 3-0 in last two matches, but both times the opponent was Manchester City. Currently one of the best teams in the world, and even though everyone is talking about "Wenger out" and how bad Arsenal actually is, I've seen plenty of positive things in the second half from them, and I really like the odds on them here. They will face pretty decent Brighton lately, who is currently on an unbeaten run for 6 consecutive matches. They have won last two home matches with 3-1 and 4-1, but opponents were West Ham and Swansea. Hughton has zero problems with injuries, they are currently on 12th spot, so they are without some extra pressure, even though the 18th spot is only 4 points away from them. Arsenal is 6th and losing touch with 5th Chelsea who is currently 8 points in front of them. Chelsea is going to play on Etihad today, so Wenger could count on favor of Manchester City. With Aubameyang, Özil, and Mikhitaryan, Arsenal is a team capable of creating chances against every single opponent. They had some decent against Man City as well, but they were horrible at finishing. Amex stadium is a hot venue, but I think that as Chelsea managed to win here with 0-4 without Courtois, Morata, Fabregas, Pedro,... Arsenal can bounce back with a win here and I suggest taking them on -0,5 handicap with odds around 2,00.
  7. Europa League Predictions > Feb 22nd

    Dynamo Kiev v AEK Athens Short preview: I am staying on Ukrainian train, picking the best team from Kiev this time. Weather conditions will be tough for Greeks, who are coming from 15+ on -5 degrees, and if anyone then Greeks aren't used to play at low temperatures. Dynamo won 12 times and played draw 3 times in last 15 matches. Stats, which are only showing how good they are on their NSC Olimpiyskiy stadium. The first match in Greece ended with the 1-1 draw and several incidents before the match. AEK is coming without suspended Vranješ and Livaja, which means that we'll probably see a January signing Shojaei and Ukrainian defender Chygrynskiy in the first eleven. Talking about records, I have to mention the 24-matches unbeaten run by AEK as well, but still, I think that quality, which is in my opinion pretty much on side of Dynamo, decide the match. Dynamo will most likely start carefully, very disciplined as they have an away goal advantage, but they have enough of offensive strength to score when AEK will need to step up, and attack. I see this match finishing with the low scoring win of the home side. Therefore I suggest taking odds around 2,00 on the home side. I think that possible rustiness, due to big winter break in Ukraine can make some damage, but as I said yesterday, those teams are tempting their winter preparations for European matches, and I don't believe that they will be out of form.
  8. Short previews and missing players, provided by! Shakhtar v AS Roma; 20:45 Shakhtar will miss Srna and Mayeshev, who are out for for a while. Bernard had some injury problems but should be back in the first lineup here. AS Roma is coming in Kharkiv without midfielder Gonalons and defenders Karsdorp, Silva, and Pellegrini. Some doubts are about important wide midfielder Florenzi, but he will most likely be in the squad for the match. Short preview: We've seen some high, trashing results in this round - City beating Basel, Liverpool Porto, Bayern Besiktas, but I think that in this match, bookies are forcing Italian side little bit too much. The only thing really bothering me here is the fact, that Ukranian championship came back last weekend, but I am sure that preparations of Shakhtar were tempted for the UCL match, so I expect players to be on a high competitive level anyway. After playing the last match on 6th of December, they started with training sessions pretty early in January, played 6 matches before the first match of their league, which they've won 5-0 against Chornomorets. Roma, on the other hand, had a very poor January, losing against Atalanta, played draws away against Inter and Sampdoria, and on 28/1 even lost against Sampdoria at home. February looks much better with three wins on their account, but first two matches were against Benevento and Verona, two of bottom three clubs in Serie A. Definitely Shakhtar will be a different opponent. At "home" they have an advantage also in temperatures as there is -5 in Kharkiv currently and it will be around -7 degrees during the match. My advice is to take Shakhtar -0,25 at odds around 2,20 and no it is not coming out of the fact, that this team won against Manchester City in the group stage, but mainly from how they played against Manchester City in England. True, they lost 2-0, but the second goal was scored in last seconds of the match and till then, everything was very much open. They've created many chances, and I think that till the match, no one caused as many problems to Citizens as Ukrainians did. Probably everyone knows how City plays, but I believe that there is only a few of those who actually watched matches of Shakhtar. They had 49% of possession on the Etihad stadium, which didn't happen there this season either. They have a very good squad, they managed to keep Fred there till the end of the season and I know that it could be tricky to pick them as being out of competition for two months is a pretty big handicap, but I still believe that they have more chances than odds are showing.
  9. Copa del Rey Predictions > Jan 17th - 25th - Providing short previews, missing players and betting suggestions on top 5 leagues! Barcelona v Espanyol; 21:30 Barcelona will miss: Vermaelen, Deulofeu, Denis Suarez – Iniesta and Alcacer are coming back from injury, while Coutinho and Mina are in the squad as well. Espanyol will miss midfielders Piatti and Jurado. I am usually keeping my fingers far away from Copa del Rey, but here I simply think that bookmakers are giving us too much of value on under 4 goals at odds close to 1,90. Barcelona have lost the first match on Cornella with 1-0 and therefore every single goal of Espanyol might be decisive. I know that it can happen that Barca will be 3 goals in front in only 15 minutes, but I expect Quique Sanchez Flores to start the match very defensive orientated, trying with counterattacks but still mainly focusing on closing gaps in defensive zones. Espanyol cannot count on services on two important players – Piatti and Jurado, so their midfield won’t be the best possible. Even if Barcelona will start offensively, probably with high pressing as well, I am pretty sure that Valverde won’t allow them to do it totally headless. To those able to take it, I suggest Barcelona and under 4,5, while Barcelona win to nill looks decent as well.
  10. FOOTALYCT - Providing short previews, missing players and betting suggestions on top 5 leagues! All other picks for 24th round of Premier League will be uploaded on Everton v WBA; 16:00 Everton will miss goalkeeper Stekelenburg and defenders Baines, Coleman, Mori. Except for Baines, other three players are without a single match this season. WBA will miss midfielders Chadli, Morisson while defenders Dawson and Hegazi will probably be fit for the match. Short preview: I’ve been surprised with odds on Everton here. Last head to head match finished with 0-0 in West Bromwich and since then Everton lost 4 matches in a row! But except Bournemouth, opponents were Manchester United at home and Liverpool and Tottenham away. I cannot be too much surprised by those results, but I will be surprised to see them staying without 3 points this time on Goodison Park. They brought Theo Walcott from Arsenal and with already added Tosun, their attack will be stronger in the second half of the season. Adding experienced Rooney and Sigurdsson, I simply think that team of Big Sam will be too strong at home for poor WBA who is currently sitting on 19th spot with only 19 points and even though they added an important win against Brighton in last round, they are overrated from bookmakers this time in my opinion. I think that books are giving too big credits to the fact of Everton losing 4 in a row here. Price on Everton should be closer to 2,00 in my opinion. Therefore, a value is on Everton -0.5 at odds above 2,20!
  11. No need for apologies, we are here to help each other and share informations.
  12. Terrier is in the squad of Strasbourg. @malabgd
  13. La Liga Predictions > Jan 12th - 15th - Missing players, short previews and betting suggestions on La Liga, Serie A, Premier League and Bundesliga. French Ligue 1 is followed professionally so it's available only for subscribers. Girona v Las Palmas; 13:00 Girona will miss defender Alcala and attacker Kayode. Las Palmas is coming without defenders Michel, Bigas and holding midfielder Samper. Short preview: as mentioned last week, I will keep picking overs on matches of Las Palmas, especially in encounters like this one where the home team is extremely offensive minded. I suggest over 2,5 goals and both teams to score with odds above 2,00 here. Garcia, Stuani, and Portu are still on fire and they are playing against a team which conceded at least 2 goals in 12 of last 13 matches! Still, regardless the position of Girona, this is a newcomer to La Liga and Las Palmas must take points from teams like this if they don’t want to be pushed back into Segunda. Without Bigas, Michel and Samper, their chances are cut short, but they will have to score on more than Girona in this one if they want something out of the match, because Girona will score for sure. For those unable to pick combination, over 2,75 at 1,90 looks decent as well.
  14. Bundesliga I Predictions > Jan 12th - 14th

    @StevieDay1983 I totally agree with your bet. Bayer Leverkusen v Bayern München; 20:30 Only long-term injured midfielder Yurchenko is off for Leverkusen. Bayern is still without first goalkeeper Neuer, important defender Hummels, important midfielder Thiago and key striker Lewandowski. Short preview: Regarding the odds, it's simply fair to go against German champions today. Without Lewandowski, they will miss their key striker and due to how Leverkusen perform lately +0,5 with odds close to 2,10 looks decent to me! Last time that Leverkusen lost was on 20th of September, while they are still on defeatless at home this season. As mentioned Herrlich can count on all important players and I expect a tense match, where the smallest error might decide the winner.
  15. To be honest, I like some underdogs... will take a look later, anyone knows if official statements about missing players are already out? Is it possible that any of those clubs (Leicester, Everton, Burnley) will miss an important player? So far: Leicester +1,5, Burnley +0,5, Everton +1,5...