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Pep004 last won the day on February 7 2017

Pep004 had the most liked content!


About Pep004

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    Legend Punter

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  1. Hello, major football leagues are slowly coming back to the action. Most of Ligue 1 clubs have already started with their pre-seasons, and I decided to keep an eye on them, following their squads, transfers, changes in the style of playing etc. For the first time, I've decided to get involved in friendly matches. All the analyses will be posted on my site, but I will be posting them here as well if anyone is interested. I thought the match will start at 20:00, so I am too late with todays suggestion (Marseille half time -0,5 @1,85) but I'll post others. Cheers
  2. Watford v Wolverhampton; 16:00 Betting suggestion: Both teams to score @1,85 Pinnacle Short preview: That will be a meeting of two very interesting sides this season in Premier League, who are neighbors on the league table as Watford is 7th with 51 points, and Wolverhampton is just a point behind on the 8th place. Even though we can see they don’t have a chance to enter the top6 and be a part of the European competition, that might not be true. Watford is playing the FA cup final and if they win it, they will get the ticket for the Europa League next season, while if Man City wins, the 7th place in Premier League will lead to Europa League, therefore they have chances of entering this competition on two different fronts. I’ve seen debates about Watford players have their heads at the final already, I think the club knows that there is still much to play and that to count on a win against City won’t be really an easy thing to do. When Wolves are coming in Watford with the full squad, Javi Garcia has some problems as his captain and best scorer Troy Deeney is suspended for this match, and Bertrand and Armstrong are doubtful. In any case, both teams have lots of offensive potentials and I expect both teams to score at least a goal here.
  3. Eintracht Frankfurt v Hertha Berlin; 15:30 Betting suggestion: Eintracht Frankfurt first half -0,5 @1,88 Pinnacle Short preview: Eintracht is still one of the biggest surprises in Europe this season, holding the 4th position in Bundesliga and reaching semis of Europa League, recently beating Benfica with 2-0 and overcoming the 4-2 defeat in Lisbon. The away side is coming into this match with much more problems in the squad, as Grujic and Stark are suspended, Luckassen is doubtful, and some others are still on the injury list. Still, the great season can quickly turn into an “average” one, as Gladbach, Leverkusen, and Hoffenheim are all on 3 or fewer points difference. Therefore we can expect a huge battle between these clubs in the final run of Bundesliga. Hertha is on the 11th spot, 15 points above the relegation zone, so they can play without any pressure. Of course, in football that often brings pretty good performances, but there is a reason why is Frankfurt holding the Champions League spot right now. In matches like this, it usually happens that longer it stays 0-0, more nervous the match gets, and I expect Frankfurt once again making a difference already in the first half.
  4. I am actually thinking about Watford over 1,5 ... They have "nothing" to play for and they possess a lot of quality in their squad, especially offensive. Seeing them creating chance after chance against Man United, I think they can do the same against Arsenal. Truth is, that the conversion rate of those chances was poor, but with a bit better day today, they could score at least 2.
  5. Leganes v Real Madrid Betting suggestion: Real Madrid -0,5 @1,72 Pinnacle Short preview: One statistical fact to begin with: Real Madrid wins 67% of matches with odds around 1,70. Even though Real Madrid isn’t playing at their prime right now, they’ve won 4 of last 5 matches, and even if Leganes is far from an easy opponent at home, I expect Real Madrid to have an upper hand in this match and contribute on the scoreboard at least once more than the opponent. Both teams look interesting as well, as captain Sergio Ramos is still out, but I decided to simply suggest narrow win of Real Madrid, which is priced extremely well regarding the usual prices on this team. Of course, everything is a consequence of not so brilliant season this year, but Zidane is here once again and he will try to “reboot” the team. Leganes have plenty of injury woes at the moment, as Omeruo, Recio, Arnaiz, El Zhar, El-Nesyri are all doubtful, while Rodriguez and Lunin aren’t allowed to play as they are loaned from Real Madrid. Los Galacticos seems to be safe on the third position, which means they will be part of the Champions League next season, but when you are in the club like Real Madrid than only reach CL isn’t enough and everyone expects you to win on matches, especially like this one is. Leganes have won 3 of last 4 matches, they are on a defeatless run for 4 consecutive matches, but I expect Real Madrid to stop the run and keep the pressure on Atletico Madrid who is currently 5 points in front of them.
  6. Real Sociedad v Eibar Betting suggestion: both teams to score @1,74 Short preview: What I like here is that both teams are without any kind of pressure. Both sitting in the middle of the league table – Real Sociedad is 11th with 10 wins, 10 draws and 11 defeats when Eibar is two places lower with 9 wins, 12 draws and 10 defeats. I cannot see any of these two climbing much higher from where they are, even though they are only 6 and 7 points behind 6th Valencia. At the same time, they are 9 and 10 points in front of 18th Villarreal, so, for now, either of those two cannot feel a serious pressure from bottom teams. An interesting fact is that both teams scored and conceded at least a goal in the last 5 matches and that both were defeated in last round – Sociedad in Vigo against Celta, while Eibar lost against Real Madrid, even though they had a 0-1 lead until the 59th minute. Eibar likes to push higher, play with pressing and therefore I expect goals in this encounter.
  7. Sampdoria – Genova Betting suggestion: Sampdoria -0,5 @2,06 Pinnacle Short preview: Even though Sampdoria is in a pretty bad form lately, having 2 defeats in a row, we have to mention that they played against Torino which is very good at home and Roma, which is fighting for a European spot for the next year. With 45 points, it looks that Sampdoria is slowly losing the connection with places for Europe, even though they are still only 4 points behind Lazio and Torino, Atalanta currently the 6th placed team of Serie A is 7 points in front. If they lose points against Genoa today, then I think we can somehow say that the European fight for Sampdoria will be over. Today's opponent is with 34 points only 6 points above the relegation zone, therefore every point will count for them. They succeeded to steal a point from Napoli in last round, but at the same time lost with teams like Udinese and Parma in last matches. Funny thing is, that they won only 4 points in the last 5 matches, and they won it against Napoli and Juventus. In any case, there is a reason that Sampdoria is 11 points in front of them and I expect the side to get the job done today.
  8. Sampdoria v AC Milan Betting suggestion: over 2,5 & both teams to score @2,37 Bet365 Short preview: I was surprised to see odds that high, even though it’s true that Milan is capable of playing a bit more cautious, but I think they won’t be able to take this road today, as Sampdoria will try to attack and stay close to European places. Milan is currently holding the 4th place with 4 points above Roma, they had a very good streak but ruined it in the last match where they lost to their city rival Inter with 2-3. Bonaventura will be the only missing for the away side, while Sampdoria will miss Ekdal, Barreto, and Caprari. Even though we’ve seen some crazy results already, which is just proving the point that is important to be really smart with stakes after international breaks, I think that mentality of the home team is simply too offensive minded. I think that the first goal will change things completely and we’ll watch a pretty open match. Sampdoria scored 49 goals in 28 matches, and at the same time conceded 38. Milan scored 6 goals less, and conceded only 26, which is less than a goal per game, and which is also why odds aren’t really favorizing the over here, but I think that Sampdoria will inject a quick tempo to this match, and Milan, as they can, will simply have to follow it.
  9. Portugal v Serbia Betting suggestion: Serbia team totals over 0,5 @1,854 Pinnacle Short preview: I tweeted about this match this morning, expressing my leans to Serbia covering the Asian handicap +1 and odds for this selection jumped from starting 1,63 to 2,04. I don’t have any news about it, but seeing the potential lineups nothing has really changed in the squad of Serbia. Of course, the fact that they have billions of problems with the football association in this country isn’t anything new, but I think that between players who are there and the coach – who is apparently problematic as well, there is a solid relationship. With performance against Germany, they showed once again that they have a very decent squad with at the moment the hottest number 9 in Europe. Luka Jović, who scored 23 goals this season (10 with the right foot, 9 with left, 4 headers) is probably one of most complete forwards at the moment and in a very good form. Of course, on the other side, there will be Cristiano Ronaldo, who’s in excellent form as well and besides him, in my opinion, one of the most improved players in past years Bernardo Silva – who is currently one of the best if not the best individual in Premier League. Without a doubt, Portugal have covered all places very well, but as they play with both fullbacks pushing really high on the pitch, I see chances for Serbia. Tadić is another great name in the squad of Krstajić, whose performances are on the highest level this season, but besides him, Krstajić has other individuals as Ljajić, Gaćinović (teammate of Jović in Frankfurt), Milenković, Milinković-Savić, and others. There is another thing when it comes for matches of “Balkan teams” and that is self-confidence and morale in general. They are capable of setting the mindset much higher of their abilities. Generations coming into senior squad have won a lot so good results against teams like Portugal isn’t anything new for them. There are some changes expected from the side of Portugal as Dyego Sousa might come in instead of Andre Silva, and Rafa instead of Ruben Neves. Even though I won’t be surprised to see Portugal starting cautiously, I think that both sides have a lot of offensive talent and that we’ll see some goals here. Therefore, my suggestions are also both teams to score @2,20.
  10. Eintracht Frankfurt v Nürnberg Betting suggestion: Eintracht 1st half -0,5 @1,82 Pinnacle Short preview: Even though the home team had a tough match in Milano in midweek, I believe that they are coming home even more motivated, as they surprised Inter and knocked them out of Europa League. They have few players doubtful, but they are still a way better opponent than the away side. Eintracht is still keeping the link with first four teams, and with new 3 points, they will be once again only a point away from Gladbach. Haller and Rebić will start on the bench, but that doesn't really bother me as the man in form Jović is in the first lineup. Last-placed Nürnberg will miss even more important players as defender Leibold and forward Pereira are suspended, while Valentini, Petrak, Zrelak, and Misidjan are still out injured. All in all, I expect Frankfurt to make things clear very early in the match and have at least a goal advantage already in the first half.
  11. Barcelona - Lyon As I wrote a bit more about this match, I am adding the link to the full preview: Barcelona v Lyon Betting suggestion: Lyon +2 @1,96 Pinnacle Short preview: Everyone's talking about Barcelona going through without any problems, bookies are setting them as 1,20 favorites and even though I do agree with the fact, that Barcelona is a huge favorite here than Lyon, but I bet that Lyon will create more chances than Manchester United against PSG! I was on Lyon not to lose on the first match and it went "easily" through. Now, bookies are offering almost even odds for Asian handicap +2, and I will take it. Spanish football was far in front of everyone, with Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Atletico Madrid being in last stages of Champions League every year, but at the same time, you have to admit that they are obviously falling. We've seen what happened to both teams from Madrid, and once again I am not saying that Lyon will win as Ajax did, not at all, as Barcelona is still the strongest team in Spain, but I am simply giving them much more chances than bookies. This Barcelona isn't on the level of Barcelona from 3-4 years ago, and they are falling from season to season. Seeing announced lineup with Vidal, Busquets, and Rakitić in the midfield, Messi will have to come on his own half to take the ball and do his magic. Therefore, as for the first match, the only person who can turn this match around is Lionel Messi. At the same time, everyone is forgetting that Lyon has Dembele, Traore, Depay, and Fekir, who didn't participate in the first match. French team impressed me with the performance in group stages in Manchester against Citizens and if they play similar to that, they are fully capable of setting up a huge surprise here. Not just that Fekir is back, Depay owes a lot from the first match, and considering Cornet and Terrier on the bench, Genesio really has plenty of choices in the offensive.
  12. Sampdoria v Atalanta; 15:00 Betting suggestion: over 2,5 goals @1,83 Pinnacle Short preview: Even though the names of these two teams aren't pointing on the top of Italian football, I believe that plenty of fans of Serie A are waiting for the clash of the 9th and the 7th team of Italian first league. The main reason is, of course, their style of football, which is far from typical Italian. Both are known by their offensive football, creating plenty of chances in matches. When Sampdoria is a 5th best offensive team with 43 goals scored in 26 matches, Atalanta is even better (2nd) with 54 goals! Be careful with the stake here, as the best striker of Sampdoria is questionable for today's match, but I think that even without him we will see goals in this match. With a solid weather forecast, I expect good conditions for the match and I think that if Sampdoria will want to stay in the game, they will have to score because the offensive of Atalanta with Gomez, Iličič and Zapata seems on fire!
  13. Chievo v AC Milan; 20:45 Betting suggestion: AC Milan -0,5 @1, 78 Short preview: There are other very solid options, like AC Milan -1 on AH, like AC Milan and over in totals, maybe even AC Milan half-time/full-time for @2,75, but I suggest taking the straight win. AC Milan is in a very good form lately, winning 4 of last 5 matches and at the moment, they are one point above their city rival Inter, while Roma have 4 points less. Milan is coming in Verona without suspended Rodriguez, while Chievo cannot count on suspended Rigoni, and injured forward Pelissier who is the second best striker of the team. In any case, we cannot compare these two sides at the moment, as one team is practically on fire, with their winter signing Piatek, who scored 7 goals in 8 matches and reborn French holding midfielder Bakayoko.
  14. Getafe v Huesca; 20:45 Betting suggestion: Getafe -0,75 @1,80 Pinnacle Short preview: Without any doubts, Getafe is the biggest surprise of this season so far. They are enjoying the season so far, with 42 points in 26 rounds, keeping the 4th place and believe it or not, the Champions League position with only 6 points less than Real Madrid! Huesca was almost cut off during the winter break, but they returned pretty strong, winning 10 points in last 5 matches and they are currently only 3 points below the relegation zone. In last round, they surprised Sevilla, and I believe that confidence jumped on a pretty high scale but Getafe plays a very “particular” football, with low possession (42,2% on average), plenty of long balls, lots of crosses, using the width, very aggressive, fighting for 2nd balls, actually some kind of English version of football, which isn’t really popular in Spain, but it brings success to this small team from the south of Madrid. Huesca started playing pretty much the same football, trying with early crosses, taking shots from everywhere, using long balls as well, but with 5 men defense. Still,I think that Getafe uses these tactics with bigger success for a longer period and that Huesca should struggle against them.
  15. RB Leipzig – Hoffenheim Betting suggestion: first half over 1,5 goals @2,18 Pinnacle Short preview: two very good offensive minded teams will meet tonight on RB Arena in Leipzig. Leipzig scored 41 goals in 22 rounds, while Hoffenheim scored even 3 more. At the same time, we have to stress out the fact, that Leipzig has the best defense of the league, with only 19 goals conceded, but the fact is also that if Hoffenheim won’t attack, and look for their chances, then they have no chances in this league, because Leipzig will win 1 or 2 against 0 as in DFB Pokal. That was the only of last 15 matches, where Hoffenheim didn’t succeed to score. Leipzig played some very decent matches lately, and they are in 4th place, with only two less than 4th Gladbach. Hoffenheim, who have scored 11 goals in last 5 away matches, or 12 in last 5 matches both (home/away), including 3 goals against Borussia Dortmund, won 8 of possible 12 points as well and it’s in quite a good form lately. It is gonna be a very interesting match as the coach of Hoffenheim, Nagelsmann has already signed the deal with RBL from next season on, but of course, that doesn’t mean he won’t take the match deadly serious. His striker Joelinton has some injury woes, but he should be in the lineup. Officially out are defenders Vogt, Hübner, and midfielders, Geiger and Rupp. Bičakčić, an important defender is doubtful as well. the home coach will miss defender Upamecano. All in all, both teams like to press, to attack, to play with creativity, so I do expect chances and goals here. Even though over 3 or both teams to score and over 2,5 looks interesting, I really like those odds for first half over 1,5 goals.