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Pep004 last won the day on February 7 2017

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  1. Eintracht Frankfurt v Nürnberg Betting suggestion: Eintracht 1st half -0,5 @1,82 Pinnacle Short preview: Even though the home team had a tough match in Milano in midweek, I believe that they are coming home even more motivated, as they surprised Inter and knocked them out of Europa League. They have few players doubtful, but they are still a way better opponent than the away side. Eintracht is still keeping the link with first four teams, and with new 3 points, they will be once again only a point away from Gladbach. Haller and Rebić will start on the bench, but that doesn't really bother me as the man in form Jović is in the first lineup. Last-placed Nürnberg will miss even more important players as defender Leibold and forward Pereira are suspended, while Valentini, Petrak, Zrelak, and Misidjan are still out injured. All in all, I expect Frankfurt to make things clear very early in the match and have at least a goal advantage already in the first half.
  2. Barcelona - Lyon As I wrote a bit more about this match, I am adding the link to the full preview: Barcelona v Lyon Betting suggestion: Lyon +2 @1,96 Pinnacle Short preview: Everyone's talking about Barcelona going through without any problems, bookies are setting them as 1,20 favorites and even though I do agree with the fact, that Barcelona is a huge favorite here than Lyon, but I bet that Lyon will create more chances than Manchester United against PSG! I was on Lyon not to lose on the first match and it went "easily" through. Now, bookies are offering almost even odds for Asian handicap +2, and I will take it. Spanish football was far in front of everyone, with Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Atletico Madrid being in last stages of Champions League every year, but at the same time, you have to admit that they are obviously falling. We've seen what happened to both teams from Madrid, and once again I am not saying that Lyon will win as Ajax did, not at all, as Barcelona is still the strongest team in Spain, but I am simply giving them much more chances than bookies. This Barcelona isn't on the level of Barcelona from 3-4 years ago, and they are falling from season to season. Seeing announced lineup with Vidal, Busquets, and Rakitić in the midfield, Messi will have to come on his own half to take the ball and do his magic. Therefore, as for the first match, the only person who can turn this match around is Lionel Messi. At the same time, everyone is forgetting that Lyon has Dembele, Traore, Depay, and Fekir, who didn't participate in the first match. French team impressed me with the performance in group stages in Manchester against Citizens and if they play similar to that, they are fully capable of setting up a huge surprise here. Not just that Fekir is back, Depay owes a lot from the first match, and considering Cornet and Terrier on the bench, Genesio really has plenty of choices in the offensive.
  3. Sampdoria v Atalanta; 15:00 Betting suggestion: over 2,5 goals @1,83 Pinnacle Short preview: Even though the names of these two teams aren't pointing on the top of Italian football, I believe that plenty of fans of Serie A are waiting for the clash of the 9th and the 7th team of Italian first league. The main reason is, of course, their style of football, which is far from typical Italian. Both are known by their offensive football, creating plenty of chances in matches. When Sampdoria is a 5th best offensive team with 43 goals scored in 26 matches, Atalanta is even better (2nd) with 54 goals! Be careful with the stake here, as the best striker of Sampdoria is questionable for today's match, but I think that even without him we will see goals in this match. With a solid weather forecast, I expect good conditions for the match and I think that if Sampdoria will want to stay in the game, they will have to score because the offensive of Atalanta with Gomez, Iličič and Zapata seems on fire!
  4. Chievo v AC Milan; 20:45 Betting suggestion: AC Milan -0,5 @1, 78 Short preview: There are other very solid options, like AC Milan -1 on AH, like AC Milan and over in totals, maybe even AC Milan half-time/full-time for @2,75, but I suggest taking the straight win. AC Milan is in a very good form lately, winning 4 of last 5 matches and at the moment, they are one point above their city rival Inter, while Roma have 4 points less. Milan is coming in Verona without suspended Rodriguez, while Chievo cannot count on suspended Rigoni, and injured forward Pelissier who is the second best striker of the team. In any case, we cannot compare these two sides at the moment, as one team is practically on fire, with their winter signing Piatek, who scored 7 goals in 8 matches and reborn French holding midfielder Bakayoko.
  5. La Liga Predictions > Mar 8th - 10th

    Getafe v Huesca; 20:45 Betting suggestion: Getafe -0,75 @1,80 Pinnacle Short preview: Without any doubts, Getafe is the biggest surprise of this season so far. They are enjoying the season so far, with 42 points in 26 rounds, keeping the 4th place and believe it or not, the Champions League position with only 6 points less than Real Madrid! Huesca was almost cut off during the winter break, but they returned pretty strong, winning 10 points in last 5 matches and they are currently only 3 points below the relegation zone. In last round, they surprised Sevilla, and I believe that confidence jumped on a pretty high scale but Getafe plays a very “particular” football, with low possession (42,2% on average), plenty of long balls, lots of crosses, using the width, very aggressive, fighting for 2nd balls, actually some kind of English version of football, which isn’t really popular in Spain, but it brings success to this small team from the south of Madrid. Huesca started playing pretty much the same football, trying with early crosses, taking shots from everywhere, using long balls as well, but with 5 men defense. Still,I think that Getafe uses these tactics with bigger success for a longer period and that Huesca should struggle against them.
  6. RB Leipzig – Hoffenheim Betting suggestion: first half over 1,5 goals @2,18 Pinnacle Short preview: two very good offensive minded teams will meet tonight on RB Arena in Leipzig. Leipzig scored 41 goals in 22 rounds, while Hoffenheim scored even 3 more. At the same time, we have to stress out the fact, that Leipzig has the best defense of the league, with only 19 goals conceded, but the fact is also that if Hoffenheim won’t attack, and look for their chances, then they have no chances in this league, because Leipzig will win 1 or 2 against 0 as in DFB Pokal. That was the only of last 15 matches, where Hoffenheim didn’t succeed to score. Leipzig played some very decent matches lately, and they are in 4th place, with only two less than 4th Gladbach. Hoffenheim, who have scored 11 goals in last 5 away matches, or 12 in last 5 matches both (home/away), including 3 goals against Borussia Dortmund, won 8 of possible 12 points as well and it’s in quite a good form lately. It is gonna be a very interesting match as the coach of Hoffenheim, Nagelsmann has already signed the deal with RBL from next season on, but of course, that doesn’t mean he won’t take the match deadly serious. His striker Joelinton has some injury woes, but he should be in the lineup. Officially out are defenders Vogt, Hübner, and midfielders, Geiger and Rupp. Bičakčić, an important defender is doubtful as well. the home coach will miss defender Upamecano. All in all, both teams like to press, to attack, to play with creativity, so I do expect chances and goals here. Even though over 3 or both teams to score and over 2,5 looks interesting, I really like those odds for first half over 1,5 goals.
  7. La Liga Predictions > Feb 22nd - 25th

    Girona – Real Sociedad Betting suggestion: both teams to score @1,95 Bet365 Short preview: a match of two teams in opposite form lately. Girona started the season pretty well, but found themselves in a very bad run lately, 13 winless matches in a row, but who would guess that the negative run will finish on Santiago Bernabeu, where they won 1-2. Real Sociedad on the other side, is without defeat since 21st of December, and they started collecting points with a win on Santiago Bernabeu (6th of January) as well. Positive news for the coach of Girona is that he will have his offensive trio reunited once again and at home, after the huge victory in Madrid, they should get some more support from the home crowd and as well feel more confident and play a bit more relaxed. Real Sociedad is not coming to defend, their goals are to finish on European spots and right now, they are only 5 points behind the Champions League places, so everything (especially Europa League) is still very possible. Of course, for something like that, they will have to get points on matches like this one will be, but I am sure that Eusebio and Girona have different plans. Both sides will play somehow in 433 formations, with at least 3 very offensive players in the lineup, so the “goal” from both sides is pretty much clear.
  8. Liverpool v Bayern; 21:00 The match between Liverpool and Bayern München will start at 21:00 on Anfield in Liverpool. Referees are coming from Italy – the main one will be Gianluca Rocchi who has shown 20 cards in the last 4 matches, twice red. Liverpool have lost the first place, but as they have one match less than the first City, they are still having everything in their own hands. Bayern is coming closer and closer to Borussia Dortmund, and I think that even though their season isn’t anything special, they will beat their German rivals till the end of the season. Liverpool: so far, the team of Jürgen Klopp is on fire, having a season full of records in Premier League but they had some problems in the group stage of Champions League after losing 2-0 in Belgrade and 2-1 in Paris. Anyway, since then they have won 10 matches, then started the year 2019 with defeats against City and Wolverhampton, added two wins against Brighton and Crystal, then two draws with Leicester and West Ham. In last match they finally added important three points on their account, beating Bournemouth at home with comfortable 3-0. We can say that they arrived in the most important period of Champions League a bit “out of form”, comparing results with some other months. Don’t get me wrong, winning 10 points of possible 15 is far from the bad form, but even two wins over Brighton and Crystal came after huge fights, none of them was an easy win, but at the same time that’s pretty normal, regarding the crazy schedule English teams are having over this period. Huge blow for Klopp is that he cannot count on the key player in defense – Virgil van Dijk. Besides him, Wijnaldum, Lovren, and Shaqiri are all slightly injured and it’s unsure if they will participate in the match or not. Another problem for Klopp is the health condition of Firmino, who has suffered a virus and didn’t train on Monday. Bayern: the team of Niko Kovač already had several ups and downs this seasons, and there is plenty of those who would like to see Croatian manager sacked, ass well as some “veterans” in the team, but so far it looks like they are slowly getting in the shape. If they were tempting for March, April, May, that might be perfect as they still have all competitions in their hands. Still, with the seasonal plan – if they were really trying to get the team in the best possible state in the final third of the season, they probably didn’t expect Liverpool immediately in the knockout phase of Champions League. In 2019, they’ve lost the match in Leverkusen (3-1), won against Hertha in DFP after extra time, won against Schalke 3-1 and in the last round Augsburg away with 2-3. Kovač cannot count on injured Boateng, Robben, and Tolisso, and while the status of Goretzka is doubtful, Kingsley Coman got the green light and will be able to help Bavarians in England. As Boateng hasn’t been named in the squad, we can expect to see Süle next to Hummels, but the question if Kovač will start with Kimmich as a fullback or in the midfield. Another question is if Ribery will come back directly in the first lineup after being given an extra time due to the birth of his child. Betting conclusion: English teams aren’t really among my favorites in Champions League. We were able to see what happened with Manchester United, but I think that in this case, we will have a totally different situation as the home manager is the one having much more experiences in matches like this. Actually, Kovač has them only as a player. We were able to see dozens of times how huge impact Anfield has on players of Liverpool and as everything will be completely burned up once again, I think that Liverpool will win this match. With all respect for Bayern, I suggest lower stakes as always in Champions League, but I think that at the moment, Liverpool, especially at home, is strong enough to beat Germans. I think that the right side of Bayern will suffer as it isn’t really the fastest. I expect huge pressure of Liverpool and as Bayern isn’t at their prime version at the moment, I expect to see Lpool winning the “first half”. Odds on Liverpool are still around 2,14. Lyon v Barcelona; 21:00 The match between Lyon and Barcelona will start at 21:00 on Groupama Stadium in Dècines-Charpieu. Referees are coming from Turkey – the main one will be well known Çakir. Lyon is currently on the 3rd place in French Ligue 1. Barcelona is comfortably sitting on the first place of Spanish La Liga with 7 points advantage in front of Atletico Madrid. Lyon: the team of Bruno Genesio is coming in the match after beating last-placed Guingamp with only 2-1. Anyway with 6 wins in last 7 matches, including the derby against PSG (2-1) is showing that Lyon is in a superb form. Even a match they’ve lost, the match against Nice could have finished completely different, as they were a pretty much better side, but Nice scored from one of their few chances and that was enough. Genesio rotated a bit in the league, let Depay, N’Dombele, and Mendy on the bench, but right now it’s hard to predict the “best” 11 of Lyon as especially in offensive coach has lots of choices with Dembele, Traore, Fekir, Depay, Terrier and Cornet all competing for 3-4 spots. Due to suspension, Genesio won’t be able to count on his captain Nabil Fekir, which is a blow for sure, but as mentioned, there is lots of depth when it comes for attacking positions. In the goal, they have in my opinion the best goalkeeper in Ligue 1. In defense, the only question is probably if they will start with experienced Rafael or lately in superb form Dubois. I expect to see two holding, defensive midfielders – probably N’Dombele (if 100% fit) and Tousart, even though I wouldn’t be surprised to see young, prolific Aouar who is much more offensive minded than Tousart. Without Fekir, I think that Aouar will start a bit higher on the pitch with Depay and Traore on wings and Dembele in a number 9 role. That’s somehow expected lineup, even though I do expect Cornet having a chance from the first minute as he had amazing matches against City. Lyon is still undefeated in CL, and I believe that they won’t be easy to beat. Barcelona: the team of Valverde is coming in the match after a minimal win against 16th placed Valladolid. For sure that isn’t really a great ticket for the tough Champions League match, especially if we consider that Barça won only twice in last 5 matches. It’s been a while since we’ve seen a great Barça, capable of destroying the opponents as they played 2-2 against Valencia, 1-1 against Real Madrid and 0-0 against Athletic Bilbao. At the same time, we have to admit that on the only match, where they really needed to win with goal difference they won 6-1 and qualified in the next round of Copa. And no, the opponent wasn’t “Huesca” but Sevilla. It is obvious that Barcelona isn’t the same as it was. They aren’t as “crazy” not with possession, not with pressing, but they still have some individuals who can decide the match in every second of the game. Great news for Valverde is that Umtiti is finally fit and ready to play, but I think that the coach won’t risk him yet. We can expect Ter Stegen in the goal, Pique and Lenglet as center backs, Roberto and Alba on fullback positions, Rakitić, Busquets and probably Coutinho in the middle, if Valverde will decide to put offensive trio with Dembele, Suarez, and Messi. Other options are Coutinho instead of Dembele and experienced Vidal in the midfield partnering Busquets and Rakitić. Lyon isn’t the only one missing an important figure in the club – Barça will miss Arthur, who is by far most creative midfielder. Of course, 433 isn’t the only possible formation of Barcelona, as 442 isn’t something odd to Valverde. Betting conclusion: I see Lyon “copying” their tactics from the match against City. While there is faster buildup and much faster wide players in City, there is no Leo Messi, so it won’t be a clear copy, but I do expect players being really close to opponents, trying to fight for every single meter on the pitch and as they are playing against huge favorites, I see this team, full of young talents or showing their best or be burned out totally. They really surprised me so far in Champions League, obviously especially on both matches against City where they caused so many problems in midfield. I think that with given odds, we cannot say there is no value on Lyon not losing this match (+0,5 @2,19). Even though it’s much easier to think odds around 1,80 on a club like Barcelona in France? They’ve never lost against Lyon, they will beat them! I think that from what we’ve seen from Barcelona lately, Lyon can surprise and with odds above 2,20 I see some value.
  9. Napoli v Torino Betting suggestion: over 2,5 & both teams to score @2,37 Bet365 Short preview: We tried with Sampdoria to score last time against Napoli, but we’ve seen another clean sheet of Napoli – 3 in a row actually. This time, I am eager to try one more time. We could say that Serie A starts after 3rd place as Juventus (66) and Napoli (52) are far from Inter, Milan, Roma, Atalanta and others with less than 43 points. Therefore, Napoli can play without extra pressure even though they lost 4 points in the last 3 matches. They played in midweek, beating Zurich away with 1-3 and are comfortably waiting for the Swiss club on Thursday. Torino on the other side is holding the 9th position, but Sampdoria is only a point behind, while 5th placed Roma is only 4 points in front, so one solid streak can change a lot. I expect them to play one similar match like against Roma away, without fear, with attacking mind and trying to get as much as possible from the favorized Napoli. I’m not sure if we’ll see any rotations from Napoli’s manager or not, but in any case, he has plenty of quality players on the bench. All in all, I expect Torino to score at least once, but still, I do think that Napoli will be the better opponent and win the match at the end.
  10. I expect both Arsenal and Manchester United winning their matches. I've been always a bit doubtful about "old fashion" coaches and even though he made some big things in EPL, or maybe even the biggest, I think that he won't save Fulham. Well, actually I think that he was a pretty wrong choice for Fulham, but well... Is anyone here close to Fulham? How are training sessions etc.? Because I think they have a pretty decent squad...
  11. Emiliano Sala Missing Plane

    The atmosphere in the club is horrible... Cannot believe what happened.
  12. Horrible news for Cardiff though, with situations of Emi..
  13. La Liga Predictions > Jan 18th - 21st

    Celta Vigo vs Valencia; 20:45 Knowing the coach of Celta Vigo from Ligue 1, I know very well how he wants to play and what are pros and cons of his style. I am probably one of the rare people thinking, that he could do very good things in Ligue 1 if Nantes kept him a bit longer, and I do believe that he is a quality coach, one of these from new generations who wants to have possession, who wants to play football, create chances, and simply make players enjoying their time on the pitch. Question is how it is with the work rate of players and how developed they are to his tactic ideas as it is very hard to work fine in defense with this style. Therefore I am not surprised to see Celta with goal difference 31-32, being the second-best scoring team and fourth worst when it comes to conceding goals. Only Barcelona scored more goals than Celta in La Liga this season. Valencia on the other side is the team with only 17 goals scored and the same number of conceded, but they are an away side in this match and after a 3-0 win against Gijon in Copa del Rey, I believe that they will come in Vigo to score goals not to play sort of “stupid” match once again. With individuals as they have, they should be at least at the 30 goals in this season, but they had a pretty bad start, having problems with the form. Well, if they will want to stay in the match against Celta, I think that they will have to score not just one, but two goals, so I think that there is value on goals market. My advice is to take over 2,5 goals at odds around 2,16! Celta will miss defender Costas, midfielder Yokuslu and forward Aspas. Valencia is coming without midfielder Kondogbia and winger Guedes. Due to transfer issues, they cannot count on forward Batshuayi as well.
  14. Well... I am really wondering how he will adapt to EPL. He is a physical striker, but when reading some descriptions about under "What can Sala bring to Cardiff", I have to say that I was laughing a lot. He will let his heart on the pitch, he will fight like an idiot but don't expect him to stop the ball and keep it at his foot, as well as don't really expect him to score goals with feet. He is a good finisher in the box (with head, hips, chest, knees, ankles), but he will miss 100% chances with feet. His first touch is catastrophic, his ball control as well. I've been thinking a lot about his assimilation in EPL, and even though fighting spirit might help him a lot, as well as plenty of crosses (don't know how Cardiff plays), I think that he won't find it easy in England, as defenders in England are usually pretty much physical as well. I will definitely keep an eye on him.
  15. UEFA Nations League, Tuesday 16th Posted on October 16, 2018 Footalyct Slovenia v Cyprus Betting suggestion: Slovenia -1,25 @2,75 When we had a few nice matches from betting perspective yesterday, we have only a few of them today. The only one I really liked is a match between Slovenia and Cyprus, but as odds on Slovenia are pretty short, I will decrease the stake and take higher odds here. Slovenia is in the middle of the crisis, where the public is already demanding the new manager, the new captain, new faces in the squad, etc. Truth is, that new manager is having some issues with the first star of this team, Atletico’s Jan Oblak, while Kevin Kampl, probably the second best individual of the team didn’t come due to the virus. To be honest, everything might have been different if Slovenians took their chances in the first match, where they were a better side than Bulgaria, but they were simply unlucky, or let’s say not concentrated enough in the key moments when Bulgarians scored two from their one chance. Huge difference with the first match against Cyprus will be a participation of Josip Iličić, who is by far the best offensive player in this team. Second difference participation of defensive midfielder Krhin, who is part of huge critics as well, but without him, this team is completely without a defensive block in the midfield. That was one of the main reasons why Cyprus caused so many problems to Slovenia in the first match. Of course, the main reason was simply the fact, that Slovenia even in the form they were in, underestimated their opponent. They didn’t take the match seriously, the coach changed 5-6 standard players, and they simply failed. Even in this case, they should get the 1-2 goal, which was disallowed unfairly due to the “offside” and then at the end, thanks to the own-goal of Stojanović who had a very poor game, Cyprus even managed to get all three points. As said yesterday, comparing those two teams is impossible. There is a huge difference in quality even without Kampl and Oblak, Slovenia has a much stronger squad and as there were few poor performances of this nation, I think that they have a perfect rebound ramp set today and I expect a convincing win for the home side. Cyprus is a team which is getting better, which is definitely a better side than a few years ago, but still, I think that except with ultra-defensive style and hoping on some luck from counters, they cannot really harm Slovenia away. I’ve been looking up to -2 with odds above 5,20 as I think there is some value for sure. Norway v Bulgaria Betting suggestion: Norway -1 @2,31 I think that if matches Slovenia v Bulgaria, and Bulgaria v Norway were played one more time, Bulgaria would very possible have 1 point and not 6 as they do right now. They had one amazing shot from distance and received one gift from the goalkeeper on the first match against Slovenia, and that was enough for 1-2. On the match against Norway, they had barely some dangerous situations but one goal was enough to beat them. On the other side, Norway had 12 corners, 10 shots, … Norway had some problems with Slovenia in the first 20 minutes, but after that, they established their way of football, physically stopped Slovenia who failed to create anything serious and Norwegians were simply better. Truth is, that the only goal, amazing goal of Selnaes came without a serious chance, but Norwegians were able to create some half-chances, being dangerous from wings but Slovenia managed to keep it only at 1-0. Norway has some very good individuals in their team, playing visible roles in their clubs and in my opinion, they are still the first favorite for the 1st spot in this group. Bulgaria will try to defend deep and keep their conversion rate as high as it is, but I think that their key player Popov will have difficulties with physical style of Norway’s defenders and defensive midfielders. If Norway succeeds at stopping Popov, I see this match being completely one-sided and I expect at least 2-0 win for the home side.