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Pep004 last won the day on February 7 2017

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  1. Paris SG v Bayern München Venue: Estadio da Luz Time: 21:00 It’s completely unnecessary to make a presentation of those two teams as all the cards are practically on the table from both sides, therefore I will try to go deeper with thoughts on the betting perspective. “Questions” There are some questions over this match, but the key question is probably which team will start the game less cautious. With the importance of the match, I can not even imagine both teams starting as offensive as they are used too, but Hans-Dieter Flick, the coach of Bayern said in the press conference that they won’t change anything and will keep the high pressure from the first minute on. If they really keep the high pressure they definitely will have problems with PSG on a transition. Another question is also will Veratti start the match? If yes, PSG will have a strong figure in their midfield which will help a lot regarding the high pressure of Bayern and that changes plenty of things. Another question is how fit is Marco Verratti. Can he holds the high tempo for the whole match? So, while there are no bigger questions over the lineup of Bayern München, there are few for PSG. Besides Verratti, the unknown is also the position of the goalkeeper as Navas is 50/50. His experiences and qualities are unquestionable. There are plenty more questions “Betting perspective” I value experiences very highly in this competition, and therefore the favorite should be the German club. At the same time, that’s exactly what bookmakers are showing to us – 1,57 for Bayern to lift the trophy. I agree that they have an extremely solid season, that they destroyed Barcelona on the way to finals, but this will be a completely different match and if anything, I’d say that as usual, odds are forcing the favorite and I can not see any value on odds under 1,8 on Bayern to lift the trophy. Therefore, the value for me is on the other side: PSG +0,5 at 1,90 with Pinnacle, which covers also the possibility of extra-time. Except that, with the offensive potential of both sides, we have to look at the option both to score & over 2,5 goals, but as it’s priced 1,526 I can not recommend it too much, even though I believe it will happen, I simply dislike those odds. Interesting is to take a look at the line for cards. The referee will be Daniele Orsato, 44 years old highly rated referee from Italy, who regardless of the fact that he has shown more than 5 yellow cards only twice in last 10 matches, is the referee who doesn’t tolerate appeals and “trash talks” from players and we have plenty of strong personalities in this match, so I am not surprised to see the line at 5 cards and I suggest over 5 cards at 1,813 with Pinnacle (in case of exactly 5 cards, this bet will be voided). Another reason for the bet is the fact that both teams are capable of attacking very direct, very quick, with plenty of very pacy and skillful individuals. It’s happening often that those players are stopped with fouls. The main suggestion is to wait and see the lineups. I will post final suggestions on twitter as soon as the lineups will be known.
  2. Real Betis v Espanyol Preview: After winning only one point in three rounds after the break, 14th Betis will host the last-placed Espanyol who started this post-break period with the win over Alaves and a draw against Getafe away, but disappointed in the last match at home against Levante (lost 1-3). The official referee will be Juan Martinez Munuera. Real Betis continues with the miserable form and for that reason, Betis sacked the manager Rubi, but their president Haro addressed problems not just to the coach, but to the whole board including himself, saying that they have made plenty of mistakes in this year, where they were aiming for European spots. They invested a huge amount of money in some well-known players - they have 8 national players and at the moment, their transfer market value is 238,30M €. The new manager, or let's say "caretaker" Trujillo knows the club pretty well as he worked in the same position in the season 2016/17. He was in charge for the last two matches of the season, and he drew both matches - Atletico Madrid (1-1), Sporting Gijon (2-2). Anyways, the truth is he will have a way more "massive" squad available. There are some players doubtful, some linked to other clubs, but in any case at least by names, his XI will look pretty decent. I've been already talking about Abelardo's Espanyol. As mentioned above, they started this post-break period pretty solid but couldn't hold the unbeaten run against Levante last round. They still had more than enough chances, but they simply conceded cheap goals and stayed without any points. Abelardo will have to cope with the fact that he can not count defenders Espinosa and Cabrera who are suspended. Probably even a bigger problem is the current state of Raul de Tomas, who has problems with the knee injury. All in all, if nothing changed before this match, so with the old situation at Betis, Raul de Tomas available for Abelardo, I was leaning to Espanyol +0,5, but with all the problems for Abelardo, the new coach factor, the fact that this Betis side still sounds amazing on the paper - there is 100M € difference in the squad worth between those two sides. That wouldn't be such a huge surprise if we are talking for example about two top top clubs and one simply possesses a player that has enormous value, but we are talking about two "mid-table" teams, which entered this season with completely different goals. Now, I am leaning more and more to the home win, and at 2,20 I think there is some value. Still, my suggestion will be on the goals market so ... Betting suggestion: Betis team totals over 1,5 @2,27 Pinnacle Both teams to score @1,833 Pinnacle
  3. Real Sociedad v Celta Vigo Preview: Real Sociedad will host Celta Vigo on Anoeta tonight at 19:30. The official referee will be Prieto Iglesias, who is known as one of referee’s that likes to show a high number of cards. His average is 4,78 yellow cards per match. Real Sociedad is still among those places hoping for the European spot next season, while Celta is actually on the other side of the table with only 4 points more than 18th placed Mallorca. Real Sociedad found themselves in a very interesting position after the break, as they were holding the 4th position that was still leading into Champions League next season. As it was expected, Atletico Madrid charged their batteries well and stepped up and jumped on the third spot so now Sevilla is 4th, with 53 points. Sociedad lost their position with two defeats – first against Alaves and lastly against Real Madrid, but we have to admit that they didn’t play bad against Real Madrid and that there was plenty of “suspicious” situations in this match (disallowed goal for Sociedad, the penalty for Real Madrid, etc). Well, the match is over and now they will host another team fighting for relegation after Alaves, but they have to perform way better if they don’t want to be surprised once again. A huge blow for the home side is definitely the fact that they can not count on suspended Illaramendi. Celta demolished Deportivo Alaves in the last round with a huge 6-0 win and are at 30 points at the moment. They had problems offensively as they didn’t score on 4 matches in a row, but with 6 goals in the last round, I believe the mindset, especially of those offensive players will be completely different. Ex. Barcelona players Rafinha and Denis Suarez played a very decent match and I expect both to be in the lineup once again. When you add Iago Aspas, Mina, Nolito, you question yourself what is this team doing down there on the table. However, I look at this team of Celta, I can not miss the potential they have offensively. Even though they couldn’t find the formula for how to make this attack working, I expect that after scoring 6 goals things will change and that they will start playing a bit more “stressless” in the attack. Real Sociedad conceded 38 goals so far, which isn’t too much but without Illaramendi, they will miss one important player in especially defensive operations, so I think there will be plenty of rooms for Celta between the lines. I was leaning to Celta +0,5 here as well, but as they are easily capable of playing “super cold – super hot” variation in this match, I rather suggest both teams to score. Betting suggestion: both teams to score @1,98 Pinnacle option for parlays: Celta Vigo team totals over 0,5 @1,53 Pinnacle
  4. Manchester United v Sheffield United Preview: Only 2 points are separating currently 5th Manchester United and 8th Sheffield United so we should have an intense match tonight on Old Trafford. The official referee will be Anthony Taylor who usually likes to show a high number of cards. The weather in Manchester is sunny so the pitch condition will be good, but it will be quite warm as 27°C is predicted around 20:00. Manchester with Ole Gunnar Solskjear had plenty of ups and downs this season but they are still aiming for the top 4 and the Champions League in the next season. To reach that, they will have to close the gap with 4th Chelsea who are 4 points in front of them. To do that, they have undoubtedly win this match against Sheffield who are doing surprisingly good this season. Pogba was one of the brightest individuals in the second half against Tottenham last Friday, and I expect the French midfielder to come back in the first XI which means Ole will probably drop the young McTominay or change the formation, which I think won’t happen. I believe Man U remembers how they were 2-0 down in the first match on Bramall Lane and I expect them to start way more serious from the first minute here. Solskjaer has almost no injury issues and except maybe Lindelof who had a minor injury against Tottenham, he has all important players available. Sheffield absolutely surprised everyone with the current 8th place but with 44 points, they are only 7 points above the 14th Southampton. Without doubt, they can be relaxed as there is no chance they will find themselves in the relegation battle, but the income if you finish 8th or 14th is not the same, moreover however it sounds funny when you see teams like Manchester United, Arsenal, Everton, Tottenham, Wolverhampton, around, they theoretically still have chances to reach European spots for the next season. Chris Wilder has few more issues than his colleague on the other bench, as he can not count on the first goalkeeper Henderson (loaned from Manchester United), and suspended fullback Egan. Moreover, the fitness status of central defender O’Connell who missed the first two fixtures of Sheffield is questionable. I expect Manchester United to have an upper hand in this encounter. Individually, it’s completely useless to compare these two sides as Manchester is undoubtedly way better. The question is what kind of Manchester will we see on the pitch tonight? If we will see the Man United from the second half against Tottenham, I think we can comfortably aim for higher odds like 2,40 for Asian handicap -1,5. Regarding the financial status, wagers, and the fan’s expectations, I think Manchester United are way more “in need” of all three points here. Sheffield is definitely a side that likes to surprise bigger teams but without their first goalkeeper and important defenders, I think their chances are even a bit smaller. They are a team that likes to play crosses, push for set-pieces, as they are one of the best teams in the league when it comes to aerial duels, but Manchester United with some really tall players like Maguire (1,94m) should have an answer to that. The betting suggestion is to split the stake into those two options: Manchester United -1,25 @2,04 Pinnacle Manchester United team totals over 1,5 @1,70 Pinnacle Norwich v Everton Preview: Carrow Road in Norwich will be the venue of the match between Norwich and Everton. If nothing spectacular will happen in those last rounds, Carrow Road won’t host the Premier League matches next season as Norwich is sitting deep at the bottom with 6 points behind the relegation “line” and moreover, besides Everton, they still have face Arsenal, Chelsea, and Manchester City until the end of the season. Everton on the other side are for them on a disastrous 12th place with 38 points and are pretty far from the European spots. The official referee will be Andy Madley whose average of yellow cards is 3,38 per match. Norwich who are still in FA Cup as they qualified through the penalty shootouts against Tottenham as mentioned aren’t in a good situation. With plenty of tough matches upcoming, they are 6 points behind the relegation zone and after the horrible performance against Southampton (3-0 defeat), it is hard to say some positive words about this group. They look too weak offensively – scored only 25 goals in 30 matches, (the worst in the league), too weak defensively – conceded 55 goals (2nd worst), and I really can not see any positive things about this team. They have Hanley, Zimmermann, and Byram out injured, while the midfielder Stiepermann just came back to training after being tested positive for the virus earlier. Everton expected a way different season as they have and the 12th position is definitely not something that will satisfy nor the leaderboard, nor the fans. Ancelotti still has plenty of players on the injury list – Sidibe, Mina, Delph, Tosun, Walcott, and Gbamin, but looking at the possible lineup we can still see a very decent squad with some great individuals who should perform way better. Against Liverpool, they were concretely outplayed when it comes for possession (only 29%), but they had their chances and they defended pretty well organized. Ancelotti is in the lead of Everton since December 2019 and he has 5 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats in Premier League. I do believe that this club can profit from his experiences and I expect them to bounce back until the end of the season. Even though the head-to-head statistics are 5-5 and that Norwich shocked Everton on the first match this season and beat them with 0-2, I think it’s payback time and even though trends are aiming to the both to score and overs, I simply like the odds on straight away win. I don’t know how much strength and especially living hopes are still in the locker-room of Norwich while on the other side Everton simply have to improve their “balance” until the end of the season. With an experienced coach as Ancelotti definitely is, as mentioned, I expect Everton to bounce back a little and finish in top10. Betting suggestion: Everton -0,5 @1,93 Pinnacle
  5. Leicester v Brighton Preview: The 3rd placed Leicester City will host 15th Brighton & Hove Albion on their King Power Stadium. The official referee will be 48 years old Lee Mason. Leicester are still holding the 3rd spot with 3 points advantage in front of Chelsea, while on the other hand, Brighton are only 5 points away from the relegation zone. Leicester are having another positive season with Brandan Rodgers and they are on a good road to reach the Champions League for the next season, as they are currently 8 points in front of 5th Manchester United. At the same time, 2nd Manchester City is 9 points in front, therefore the 3rd position is realistically the most they can reach this season. Except for the young Justin who took the place of injured Ricardo Pereira, there should be no bigger changes in the 11 of Rodgers. With all guns in front – Vardy, Maddison, Perez, Barnes, Gray, and a very decent backline even without Pereira, I think The Foxes are simply too good to let points go away against an opponent as Brighton. I think there are tough times in front of Brighton, who still have to face Leicester, Manchester United, Liverpool, and Manchester City in those last rounds. As they are only 5 points away from the 18th Bournemouth, they simply have to aim for the points and can not calculate on any of those matches. Graham Potter has almost the whole squad available, with only striker Alzate being doubtful. After a huge win over Arsenal, I believe they will be a bit less stressed with the need of points, but I don’t believe they got any morale boost in this match, as everyone knows that if we repeat this match 10 times, Arsenal will probably take all 3 points in 9 of them. I want to say that they were lucky to snap the win against Gunners and without being as lucky or even more, I think they won’t be able to seriously harm Leicester. I think that Ndidi and Tielemans will dictate the tempo of the match, as I expect Leicester to have more possession. With players they have in attack, they usually don’t need too many chances and I expect their forwards to deliver. They only drew against Watford in the first match after the break, but we have to admit that Watford played really solid and I’d even say they will finish in front of Brighton even though they are 4 points behind them at the moment. Brighton is usually a team that plays extremely defensively against top teams and tries with counters or even more set-pieces, but today they won’t face the top team like Manchester City that will try to keep the ball and create their chances by possession game, but they will face the team that will attack them straight and directly, sometimes even “through the wall” and I think Leicester is simply stronger, more physical and too good at what they do, therefore I think Brighton will have to look for their points elsewhere. Betting suggestion (I suggest splitting the stake on those two selections): Leicester -0,75 @1,88 Pinnacle Leicester team totals over 1,5 @1,88 Pinnacle Tottenham v West Ham Preview: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium will host the match between two sides that can be very disappointed by the current standings as the home Tottenham are 8th with 42 points, and West Ham 17th, straight on the relegation line with Bournemouth at 27 points. The official referee will be Craig Pawson. Jose Mourinho is one of those managers who can definitely be “happy” about the break, as he got back some players that were supposed to stay out until the end of the season. Lucas Moura still has some minor problems but will be available for the match. Today, Mourinho will be able to count on Dele Alli who’s coming back after suspension and looking at the players like Kane, Dele, Son, Bergwijn, Lucas, Lamela, Lo Celso, we can easily see that this team have enormous potential in the attack. Moreover, with options like Gedson, Sissoko, Dier, Winks in the midfield, and a pretty decent back 4, I think Mourinho this time has no right for any kind of complaints because he has a lot of high-quality players, a lot of options, variations, etc. West Ham as mentioned are definitely not satisfied with the season and are currently in a very dangerous position with 18th Bournemouth at the same number of points and 19th Aston Villa only a point less. We can almost “cut” Norwich off as they are 6 points behind in the last place, but the 18-19th place are leading to the 2nd league as well, so there is huge pressure on David Moyes and his team. He can not count on the best goalscorer Haller, regular midfielder Snodgrass, while Ogbona, Zabaleta, and Musuaku are having some minor injuries and are doubtful. Both sides are eager for points – one fighting for European spots, the other for the relegation. I simply think there is a pretty big difference in quality and Tottenham should take advantage of that. They also have much fewer problems with injuries. As mentioned Mourinho has plenty of options this match, so he can prepare different varieties and with “cooling break” they can talk and change plenty of things in case that the main instructions won’t work. 5th placed Manchester United is only 4 points in front of Spurs so I think they can still turn the things upside down, but there are teams like Arsenal, Wolverhampton, Everton who aren’t doing as well as they could, especially Arsenal and Everton so Spurs simply have to win matches like this one is. Betting suggestion (I suggest splitting the stake on those two selections): Tottenham -0,75 @1,98 Pinnacle Tottenham team totals over 1,5 goals @1,833 Pinnacle
  6. Preview: Premier League is back! And already in the first round after the break, we will watch the derby between Manchester City and Arsenal. Citizens are currently holding the 2nd place with 4 points more than 3rd Leicester, while Arsenal have another difficult season - currently 9th, but the 5th Manchester United is only 5 points in front. The referee will be Anthony Taylor, who we can remember from the match between PSG and Borussia Dortmund where he gave 7 yellow and 1 red card. Manchester City lost the Manchester derby right before the virus outbreak and will be looking to bounce back with the positive result against the Gunners. This break gave their manager Pep Guardiola something that he probably can not remember since he joined the Citizens - it gave him all players available for the match. The team that often have two or even three regulars out due to injuries, will this time be complete and due to the possibility of 5 substitutions, we can expect some tactical changes during the match. City won 5 of the last 6 matches, but except pretty solid performance against Real Madrid in the Champions League, their performances in the league weren't something exceptional. Arsenal as mentioned is having another season full of ups and downs, and can not find consistency. When you already think things will get better now, they disappoint once again or vice versa - you think they will need a lot of time to recover, and they perform at their best. Therefore they are really hard to predict. They have a strong weapon on their bench in Arteta, who has worked as Guardiola's assistant in City for years and knows the club very well. He can not count on Torreira and Chambers, but has all other players available. Tough to say what is gonna happen after the break. I expect Manchester City to control the game, having a huge amount of possession as usual but Arsenal on the other hand with players like Lacazette, Aubameyang, Pepe, ... will definitely be dangerous on the break. I think that during the normal season if those two teams are in a normal rhythm of games, those odds are pretty precise, but after the pause, I think there is absolutely no value on the home side. Don't get me wrong, the stats and everything is hardly pointing to a clear home victory and even I do think Citizens will win this match, but odds are as short as 1,35 which means bookies are giving Man City 75% to win the match. Well, for me, given the situation, that's simply too much. With the offensive strength of both sides, and especially due to the fact that City this season simply misses one leader as Kompany (+ injuries of Laporte), I think Arsenal will score at least once here. Betting suggestion: both to score & over 2,5 goals at 1,943 Pinnacle
  7. Osasuna v Atletico Madrid Preview: Stadium El Sadar in Pamplona will host the match between 11th Osasuna and 6th Atletico Madrid. The referee will be Ricardo de Burgos who is known as a referee that likes to show plenty of cards. He has shown 59 yellow and 3 red cards in last 10 matches. Atletico will continue their “war” for the CL spot, while Osasuna pretty much safe in the middle of the table with 10 points above the relegation zone. For me, the team from Pamplona is definitely one of the surprises in La Liga this season, as I didn’t expect them to be in so much comfortable situation 10 rounds before the end. Of course, there is still plenty of matches, and things can turn “southern”, but I don’t believe it. They returned after the break with the draw away at Real Sociedad, where it’s true that they were defending for the majority of the match, but they scored first, and when Osasuna scores first, it’s always tough to break them down as they really drop the defensive line and simply defend for the rest of the game. The question about tonight’s match is if they will change their 5-men defense back to 4, or keep it at 5 as they played the majority of the match against Sociedad. The best goalscorer Avila is still out injured, which means we will probably once again see the pair Adrian Lopez – Cardona. Atletico is at the moment on the 6th spot, which definitely isn’t enough for their demands. Regarding the squad and the importance of the name of the club in past years, it’s simply necessary for Simeone’s men to reach at least the 4th spot. Getafe and Sevilla both lost 2 points this round, which means a very good opportunity for Atletico to jump higher on the league table. That could be the round, where Atletico jumps over Getafe and Sociedad (if they fail against Alaves) and reduces the gap with Sevilla on only 2 points! Simeone will miss Vrsaljko, Vitolo, and Felipe, but has the whole first 11 available, so there should be no excuses for tonight. Even though there are rumors that Osasuna will go back to the 4-men defense, I have serious doubts about that and I expect them with 5 at the back. If there will be no crazy goals out of nowhere – regarding the two opponents that shouldn’t happen – then that should stay more like a lower scoring match, but still with the away side taking all the three points. Atletico is definitely a team that belongs in the top4 of the league and it would be a huge surprise if that won’t happen. As mentioned, results in this round are going in the favor of Atletico, but all of that will be useless if they don’t add three points to their name. They are the better side, they have much more experiences, they already dropped points with Bilbao last round, and they will win this match no matter what! Betting suggestion: Atletico Madrid -0,5 @1,88 Pinnacle Other suggestions: Atletico & under 2,5 @3,70, Atletico win to nil @2,80
  8. Villarreal v Mallorca Preview: With 41 points after 28 rounds, the Yellow submarine can still aim for European places. It’s expected that the 7th place will still lead in Europe and Villarreal are 2 points behind 7th Valencia at the moment. Mallorca on the other side is 1 point behind 17th Celta Vigo and only 2 in front of Leganes and Espanyol, therefore every match is super important. Villarreal reached the important victory away at Celta Vigo who are in the “relegation battle” as well. With those three points, they canceled the negative run of three defeats they had before the break. The defeat against Leganes on the 8th of March was definitely a harsh punch and as it seems, the break came at the good time for them. With Iborra suspended, we will see the 4-3-3 formation with Zambo, Trigueros, and Cazorla in midfield. Yes, Mallorca is in a bad position but at the same time, we have to admit they had their chances against Barcelona. Altogether, they had 13 shots, and some of them were actually decent chances. The truth is that in the first 10 minutes, Barça could already be 3 goals in front, but after that Mallorca pressed and especially over youngster Kubo prepared some very solid chances. Daniel Rodriguez is the suspended player and will most likely mean we will see Lago on the wing. I do expect the home win here, but odds are pretty low so I would be looking at Asian handicaps. At the moment, we can get -1 at 1,653 which is in my opinion still too short. Seeing the lineup of Villarreal with three very offensive players up-front Paco, Bacca, and Chukwueze, I see value in goals. Especially thanks to the fact that Mallorca produced some chances against Barça. Yes, they are catastrophic when playing away, but if they don’t change that, I’m afraid that chances for them to avoid the relegation are very small. Very interesting odds are also Villarreal to win and both teams to score at 3,25. Betting suggestion: over 2 goals @1,91 Pinnacle Both to score & over 2,5 goals @2,38 Pinnacle
  9. Getafe v Espanyol Preview: Getafe is still flying high, keeping 5th place with 46 points but there is no doubt, that it will be very tough to keep this place with names like Atletico Madrid and Valencia being behind. With 4 and 5 points less, there are also Granada and Villarreal who can somehow count on a surprise as well. Getafe’s opponent will be the last placed Espanyol, who drastically changed after Abelardo took the team in his hand. Getafe surely didn’t count on losing in Granada (2-1) and will try to bounce back today against Espanyol. Of course, that won’t be anywhere near easy, as Espanyol are in bloody need of points. With Etxeita suspended, we will probably see the pair Djene-Cabaco in the central defense. Bordalas has also Arambarri and Maksimović available after suspension, therefore the central midfield of Getafe will definitely look better than against Granada. Espanyol as mentioned above have changed a lot since they named Abelardo as a head coach. All the 5 wins they got this season were under his leadership (and 18 of 25 goals) and I seriously think they won’t be the one that will be relegated. They won an important match in the last round against relegation rival Alaves with 2-0 and they had impressive 19 shots with 69% possession in this match. They also allowed only 1 shot to the opponent, who was really with the player less from the 19th minute on, but that doesn’t change the fact that we Abelardo wants to have an offensive-minded team on the pitch. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Espanyol having more possession in this match, but that doesn’t bother Getafe too much as they are a team that likes to strike directly after winning the possession. Both sides will want all three points here, but I think that odds are for the winner’s market are set pretty good, just a bit above evens. But I do like the goals market as I think we might see much more offensive from Espanyol than bookies are expecting. Betting suggestion: both teams to score @2,50 Pinnacle over 2 goals @2,28 Pinnacle
  10. Levante v Sevilla Short preview: today at 19:30, 12th placed Levante will host 3rd Sevilla on Estadio Milo Cano in Nucia. The stadium will be empty, therefore Levante won't be able to enjoy the support of the home crowd and as we were able to see in Bundesliga, the advantage of the home ground has almost disappeared. For now, there is no pressure on Levante as they are 9 points above the relegation. Sevilla on the other side took advantage of the 28th round and made the gap with Atletico Madrid a bit bigger (4 points). Levante drew in the local derby against Valencia 3 days ago, and once again shown that they are a team that likes to steal points from bigger clubs. They had a very positive record at home before the outbreak of Covid-19 as they won 9 of possible 12 points in the last 4 matches, including the 1-0 win over Real Madrid. Levante actually grabbed a win against both giants - Real and Barcelona on Milo Cano but the ambiance definitely won't be the same against Sevilla. The major issue for the manager Paco Lopez is that he has his best scorer Roger Marti unavailable due to suspension. Sevilla is coming into the match after comfortably getting 3 points on the derby with Betis and without any injury concerns for the coach Lopetegui. One major factor which is going in their favor is the fact, that they have a pretty big squad and for example today, he can use players like Banega, Gudelj, En-Nesyri, Suso, Gomez, Rony Lopes, Escudero, Vazquez, ... who all stayed or on the bench, or were subbed in against Betis. I expect Levante to try to play and surprise another big team in La Liga but at the same time I see this Sevilla with Lopetegui on the bench pretty serious and I don't believe they will let their Champions League place to someone else. They are 3 points ahead of Sociedad and 4 in front of Getafe and Atletico Madrid and as they play first, they can add more pressure on others again. Here, I have mostly in mind Atletico Madrid, who will definitely push hard to get into this top4. Usually, we see goals between Levante and Sevilla, and with the fact that there will be no extra pressure for the home side, as mentioned, I expect them to attack and surprise Sevilla. On the other hand, Sevilla simply possess too much quality, they started this period with a very decent performance and clean win over the city rivals, and I expect them scoring at least once more than Levante. Betting suggestions: Sevilla -0,5 @1,77 Pinnacle both teams to score @1,80 Pinnacle both to score & over 2,5 goals @2,26 Pinnacle Sevilla to win & both to score @3,50 Pinnacle * I think odds on Sevilla are pretty short, and in-play you might get much better odds really early in the game. Anyways, here are suggestions, pick the one that suits you the best. Still, I suggest taking smaller stakes! If you are aiming to take all options, then I suggest splitting the stake!
  11. Sevilla v Real Betis Preview: La Liga is back! And they will offer us so-called "El Gran Derbi" between Sevilla and Real Betis, two teams from Sevilla. As we were used to see in past seasons, Sevilla are the club with the upper hand as they are once again much better positioned than their rival (Sevilla 3rd, with 47 points; Betis 12th, with 33 points). At the moment, Sevilla is in a very hot spot, as they are the leading team in the group of 4 teams - Sevilla 47, Real Sociedad and Getafe 46, and Atletico Madrid 45 points, plus we can not cut off Valencia on the 7th with 42 points. Therefore every single match will be very important for the team of Lopetegui. Real Betis on the other side are currently 12th, and even though they had bigger ambitions before the season. Right now, they are 12 points behind 6th Atletico and 8 points above the relegation zone. This time, Pizjuan definitely won't look like that... Sevilla was in a pretty solid form before the break as they won away at as mentioned, very good Getafe with 0-3 on Coliseum, then Osasuna at home with 3-2, and in the last match they drew with away at Atletico Madrid (2-2). Besides that, they played 0-0 at home and 1-1 away at Cluj and will play face AS Rome in the next phase of the Europa League. Coach Lopetegui has some problems with the winger Ocampos, who has slightly injured his adductor and is questionable. As we were able to see in Bundesliga, rotations will be very important as they plan to play all 11 rounds of La Liga in only 6 weeks! Sevilla have a pretty wide squad and with a very good coach as Lopetegui definitely is, they should not be among those who will suffer a lot due to the short bench. The board of Real Betis had much bigger expectations for this season, as they spent a bit more than 100M € in the transfer period before the season. The break might even come at a good time for them as, except the last surprising win over Real Madrid with 2-1, they had a run of 7 matches without winning the match. In my opinion, they have an exceptional squad and those who were reading my posts were able to see that I liked to play overs and both teams to score on their matches, as they were simply a team that was very solid offensively, and at the same time very weak at the defense. They conceded 43 goals, plenty of them due to the lack of concentration and poor positioning. Talking about the depth, Betis isn't a team that should be among those struggling the most either, as Rubi has some option to rotate as well. As I said many times, in my opinion, matches are the best training, but the tempo will be simply extremely high and for some teams very hardly followed. Some players were used to play with this rhythm, but most of them aren't and therefore I suggest being careful with stakes for 1-2 rounds, to see a bit how some individuals worked during the quarantine. Obviously, clubs were tracking their activity level, giving them training, checking all the available data but still, some players worked harder than others and that should be visible in those first rounds. I'd go with Sevilla here, but not without their fans on Pizjuan. Fans in a derby like this are always a huge advantage, especially in those two clubs, where they always prepare a living hell to each other. This time, it will be more about tactics, superiority, team quality, individual quality, and I think Betis is simply too weak at the back, and I expect Sevilla to score at least twice. Still, that might not be enough for the win... Betting suggestions: both teams to score @1,80 Pinnacle Sevilla team totals over 1,5 @1,925 both teams to score & over 2,5 goals @2,24 Pinnacle
  12. Eintracht Frankfurt v Mainz Betting suggestion: both to score & over 2,5 goals @1,85 Pinnacle Frankfurt team totals over 1,5 @1,73 Pinnacle Short preview: I’ve been on the “Frankfurt train” for a whole, and I will keep with them as they simply look like a team that found the way how to get the things done after the break. Yes, they lost against Bayern in the first match with 5-2, but I think it’s really unnecessary to speak about Bayern and compare it to the rest of the league at the moment. Frankfurt have won their last two matches, and neither of them was against an easy opponent. Firstly, they won against Wolfsburg away, then against Werder. Two teams in different zones, first fighting for European spots, while second fighting to avoid the relegation. This time, they will face another team that is fighting to avoid the relegation, but at least at the moment seems to be pretty weak and even though they somehow found the way in past years to avoid to be relegated, it seems more and more possible, that they will find themselves on positions that are leading to the “Zweite Bundesliga”, or at least to qualifications with the 3rd best team of the second league. They drew against Union Berlin, they lost against Leipzig and Hoffenheim at home, and they will be pretty much under pressure today against Frankfurt. As I’ve said in the past two rounds, Frankfurt isn’t a bad team and they deserve to be at least in the top 10 if not higher. With Andre Silva and Dost keeping up in form, always dangerous Kostić and Kamada, this team of Hütter especially now, playing “relaxed” as they made an 8 points gap with the 16th Fortuna, will be simply too much at least offensively. They conceded some easy goals anyways, especially against Freiburg (3-3), but their offensive part have delivered so far, therefore I think taking their goals is the safest option. Interesting option is also Frankfurt & over 2,5 goals at 2,75!
  13. Thanks for that! I am adding "both to score & over 2,5 goals at 2,00 Pinnacle.
  14. Freiburg v Borussia Moenchengladbach Betting suggestions: Gladbach -0,5 @1,80 Pinnacle Gladbach team totals over 1,5 @1,74 Pinnacle Short preview: The first duel of the 30th round of Bundesliga, will be played on Schwarzwald-Stadion, where will 8th placed Freiburg host the 4th Gladbach. Those two teams look much closer if comparing their position than the number of points – Freiburg 38, Gladbach 56. Therefore both in a completely different situation, but they both have a chance to finish with the same “award” at the end – at least when it comes to the European spots. Freiburg is 4 points behind 6th Wolfsburg, while Gladbach is “sharing” the 4th spot with Bayer Leverkusen. Therefore, it can happen that they finish 5th and 6th, which means both will participate in the Europe League next season. As I’ve mentioned in the last analyses, there are only 5 rounds until the end, and regarding the fact that Gladbach will have to face Bayern away in the next round, and Wolfsburg and “awaken” Hertha at home, they are simply not allowed to skip points here. With empty stadiums, we’ve seen that there is a much smaller advantage of the home ground, so I am willing to take them even though the odds are pretty short. The importance of three points for them is simply too big, they raised the atmosphere in the locker-room with the 4-1 win over Union Berlin, and after some of their individuals are performing as they are, I do believe in this team. Freiburg have won only 3 times since the 14th of December 2019 and are on the road downwards for a while now (3 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats – before the break and 0, 2, 2 after the break). To be more precise, they drew with Leipzig and Frankfurt, but on both matches, they could have finished with 5 goals behind the opponent. Same against Leverkusen, where they lost “only” 0-1, but it could have been much more. It’s hard to predict how will Freiburg enter this match, as they are really out of form, but I believe Gladbach will press and attack from the beginning of the match. They are a better side, they have some individuals Freiburg can only dream about, and if nothing else, than individual superiority, should be the reason that Gladbach leaves the Schwarzwald-Stadion with all three points. I’m not sure about Freiburg’s European interest as I think they don’t have a squad that would be capable of playing equivalently on more fronts, and I think they will be completely satisfied with the mid-table finish. One interesting information about Freiburg: “In the last 10 matches, they have averaged only 1 xGF per game! Counting only the matches after the break, this number dropped to 0,7 xGF per game! And yes, they scored 3-times in Frankfurt…
  15. Werder Bremen v Eintracht Frankfurt Betting suggestions: both teams to score & over 2,5 @2,06 Pinnacle Eintracht Frankfurt team totals over 1,5 @2,17 Pinnacle Short preview: Yes, this match has been postponed in the 24th round and actually isn't part of the 29th round of Bundesliga, but as it is the 29th match for both teams, I decided to put it here and not open a new post. As I've mentioned last time speaking about Werder Bremen, they started showing some signs of awakening, but they will face a decent side this time and it will be interesting to see how they will respond to the offensive-minded Frankfurt. Sahin, Toprak, Pizzaro are still amongst the injured players, but the only serious worry of the coach Kohfeldt is if one of his key players - Bittencourt (scored against Schalke) will be fit for this match, as he was subbed out at the half-time against Schalke due to the minor injury. Eintracht on the other side is still without Paciencia but have some other players stepping up in the form and I believe that after a huge win in Wolfsburg, they will be headed to Bremen with the same purpose - attack and create as many chances as possible. Against Wolfsburg, they weren't as aggressively attacking as against Freiburg just one round earlier, but Wolfsburg is definitely a team that stays more compact, and capable of defending well-organized, with plenty of physical players cover set-pieces solid as well. The statistics are just proving that, as they are 6th best defensive team in the league - conceding 36 goals in 29 matches (Leverkusen, Gladbach, Dortmund conceded 35). Werder Bremen, regardless of just hitting 3 clean-sheets in a row, are far from that as they conceded 59 goals until now, and are 3rd worst defensive team in the league. Thanks to their recent result, we have odds for over/under on a pretty decent line, but I do understand what are bookies doing over here - they are simply "gambling" on the question "whose style will take-over this match" and they are giving a bit of advantage to the home side. Well, I am doubtful about that. I believe Frankfurt won't sit deep, they won't flex with their defense as they aren't the best defensively - they conceded only 6 goals less than Werder and are in the bottom half as well when it comes to the table of conceded goals. But with what they can flex, it is definitely their attack. With 46 goals scored, they are the first team after top5 of Bundesliga (Bayern, BVB, Bayer, Gladbach, Leipzig) and with recent form - scored 7 goals in last 3 matches I do believe they will be simply offensive aggressive too much and therefore expect that Werder will sooner or later be in a position that they will have to score to stay in the match. On the other hand, I am not afraid of the vice-versa situation neither, as I think that if Werder scores, we'll see Frankfurt completely sending-in offensively and with Kostić, Kamada, Silva, Gačinović,... in a good form I can not imagine Werder being good enough defensively to keep them away from scoring. The worst-case scenario for the suggestion is if the match stays at 0-0 for a longer period, but with the way both teams are playing, I think that we'll see at least a goal in the first 30 minutes. The difference regarding the match with Gladbach, where Werder managed to keep, let's say a better side to a 0-0 draw, is in my opinion the fact that they were actually satisfied with the point and I believe they will have higher expectations tonight. They will try their best to grab a win and jump away from places that lead directly to relegation. Talking about the match-winner - there is plenty of people thinking in a simple way - Werder is in need of points, while Frankfurt plays "for nothing". I agree with that, as it's obviously a fact to this game, but I disagree with the argument of plenty of tipsters, that Werder will simply win because of that. Frankfurt is a team way better than some others in the bottom half of the league table, and as mentioned last time - in my opinion they dropped plenty of points because they weren't capable of fighting on two fronts - domestic league + Europa league. Now they are fully focused on Bundesliga, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Frankfurt winning once again. They did it against Wolfsburg, why not against Werder?
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