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Pep004

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Pep004 last won the day on February 7 2017

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  1. Wolverhampton v Newcastle Betting suggestion: Wolverhampton -1 @1,85 Pinnacle Short preview: Here I am not going that much on Wolves like I am going against Newcastle. There is a complete mess with injuries in their team as they are without Manquillo, Shelvey, Schar, Saint-Maximin, Lascelles, Colback, while defenders Lewis and Hanley are doubtful due to illness. Wolverhampton on the other side is without Jota and Boly but without any other problems. After the huge win over Man City, Wolverhampton failed to win in three consecutive matches - losing against Liverpool and Watford and playing a goalless draw with Manchester United in the FA Cup. Newcastle on the other side lost last three Premier League matches (Man United, Everton, Leicester City) with goal difference 9-2 and played 1-1 in FA Cup against the 18th placed team of the third league - Rochdale. All, after all, the advantage of the home pitch, the advantage of the simply better situation with injuries, plus the fact that Wolverhampton simply is the side which posses more quality, I expect all three points to stay at the Molineux Stadium. Tottenham v Liverpool Betting suggestion: Liverpool -0.5 @1,74 Pinnacle Liverpool -1 @2,28 Pinnacle Short preview: Primary selection is to take the Reds with the straight win, but as the odds dropped even under 1,7 at some bookmakers, I suggest to simply go with the -1 handicap. At the moment, Spurs have simply too many problems as Mourinho can not count on the first goalkeeper Lloris, defensive midfielders Sissoko and Ndombele, defender Ben Davies and the captain and by far the most important player in attack Harry Kane who will be most likely out until early April. Moreover, Rose and Winks aren't fully fit. Liverpool is coming without some players as well, but from the strongest 11, they miss only Fabinho. I suppose he will include Oxlade Chamberlain in the first lineup, which means they will have another prolific midfielder and Tottenham will really need to be at their best to take something out of this match. In the last five matches, Liverpool have always scored at least two goals and I think nothing will really change today. Leicester v Southampton Betting suggestion: Leicester -0,5 @1,68 Pinnacle Short preview: There were some questions over the injury status of Vardy and Maddison but as it looks, both will start today's match against Southampton. The Saints are in an exceptional form lately, as they are unbeaten for 5 consecutive matches. They've beaten Aston Villa and Chelsea away, and Tottenham and Huddersfield at home, while they shared points with Crystal Palace after 1-1 draw at home. Anyways, today's match will be completely different as they will face a very tough opponent, a team who is well deservedly sitting on the second place of Premier League, playing attractive football, scoring plenty of goals and defending pretty decently this season. With 46 goals scored and 19 goals conceded, they have 3rd best attack and 2nd best defense of the league. With last 5 matches, they ruin their run a bit, as they lost twice and play draw once, but defeats were against Liverpool and Manchester City, while the important thing is that they have returned back to the "winning roads" and won against West Ham and Newcastle - both away. The draw against Aston Villa could have finished completely different as Leicester was by far the better opponent in the match, but that's football. Today against Southampton I don't expect an easy match for The Foxes, but I do expect them to win it. Solid options for those for who 1,68 isn't high enough are also with Leicester and under 3,5 or 4,5 goals.
  2. Dortmund v Leipzig Betting suggestion: over 3,25 @1,869 Pinnacle both teams to score & over 2,5 goals @1,70 Pinnacle Short preview: Without any doubt, the most interesting match tonight. Clash of current league leaders of Leipzig who will be hosted on Signal-Iduna-Park by Borussia Dortmund. Recent results of both teams Dortmund: 4-0L, 3-3, 1-2W, 5-0W, 0-4W and Leipzig: 2-2, 2-3W, 3-1W, 2-2, 0-3W are clearly pointing on over here. Where it gets tricky from the statistical point of view is the fact that Leipzig has the 2nd best defense in the league with only 16 goals conceded in 15 rounds. Dortmund on the other hand only 3 more, which means neither of those two sides is conceding a lot, but as mentioned yesterday for the Cagliari-Lazio match – for both sides we can firstly stress out their offensive strength as they scored 37 and 42 goals so far in the competition. Favre will miss Witsel, Delaney, and Schmelzer, while Nagelsmann is still without defenders Orban and Konate, and midfielder Kampl who is once again on the injury list. Honestly, I think that Bulls are coming into this match in a slightly better form, and even though they miss their captain Orban, the defensive pair Upamecano-Klostermann works pretty fine. Their front part, with Werner, Sabitzer, Forsberg, and Poulsen looks really scary (first three mentioned, scored 26 goals! However I turn this match, I think both teams are strong enough to take advantage of the opponent’s weaknesses and I believe we will see goals here… Looking for a winner here, I might even try with direct Leipzig win with odds above 3,25. Augsburg v Fortuna Dusseldorf Betting suggestion: Augsburg -0.5 @1,87 Pinnacle Short preview: The away side is coming with some worries as the top goal scorer Hennings is doubtful for the match. Besides him, they won’t be able to count on the standard defender Bodzek, while Karaman, Suttner, and Stöger are on the injury list as well. Augsburg on the other side is still without Finnbogason, but the coach Schmidt can still count on all players who participated in the last 5 matches, where Augsburg have beaten Paderborn and Hoffenheim away, Herta and Mainz at home and played 1-1 draw in Köln. The completely different atmosphere is in the locker room of Fortuna, who slipped to the 16th spot with recent defeats against Dortmund (5-0), and Leipzig (0-3). Truth is they played against some top sides lately, but even otherwise they lost 5 of 8 away matches so far. I think that it won’t be an easy match for Augsburg, but with the form they’re holding at the moment, I think that they will simply do what will be needed to book another three points.
  3. Cagliari v Lazio Betting suggestion: both to score & over 2,5 @1,854 Pinnacle Short preview: Cagliari is definitely one of the positive surprises this season, and will surely enter this match with one and only goal – to take all three points. There were plenty of raised eyebrows after they signed Nainggolan, but the Belgium midfielder is doing amazingly on Sardinia. So far he scored 4 goals and added 5 assists. On the other side, we have Lazio, who’s playing on a very high level as well – so far probably the best season in last years. With Alberto, Immobile, Correa, Milinkovic-Savic having a super season, they have players on who they can rely and so far, we can say they look pretty consistent. They lost their last European match in Rennes, but Inzaghi used plenty of rotations in his lineup. While Cagliari will try to make the bigger gap between them and 6th placed Atalanta, Lazio will try to close the gap between them and Inter and Juve, who are currently at the top with 39 points. Both Cagliari and Lazio are lately in a very good form. Lazio is on a 7 win running streak, while Cagliari didn’t lose 13 matches in a row – 8 wins, 5 draws. On their Sardegna Arena, they’ve won 5 of the last 6 matches with goal difference 18-9. Due to suspension, the home side will miss first goalkeeper Olsen, and midfielder Rog, while Castro, Ceppitelli, Birsa, and Pavoletti aren’t in the group due to injuries. Lazio is coming without bigger problems as only Vavro and Lukaku aren’t in the squad. Two defenders Marušić and Patrić are doubtful, but neither of them is in the first XI of Simone Inzaghi. Both teams are offensively very successful as they scored 36 (Lazio, 2nd best attack of the league), and 31 goals (Cagliari, 4th best in the league), and even though they are both defensively pretty solid (15 and 19 goals conceded in 16 rounds), I expect “offensive mind” to overtake and to see a very entertaining match from both sides.
  4. Shakhtar Donetsk v Atalanta Betting suggestions: Shakhtar -0,25 @2,37 Pinnacle over 2,5 & both teams to score @1,709 Pinnacle Shakhtar to win & both teams to score @4,20 Pinnacle Short preview: Both teams are still in a position to qualify, but the Ukranian club is in the pole position to take the second place. Being on a 14 matches unbeaten run, Shakhtar will definitely enter this match with lots of confidence. Besides, while the away manager Gasparini will miss defenders Toloi and Kjaer, and forwards Iličić and Zapata, Luis Castro on the bench of Shakhtar has almost no worries and will be capable of putting the strongest lineup on the pitch. Atalanta came in this competition completely without experiences and I think that costed them losing especially the first match in Zagreb. After they have found the edge with teams, caused plenty of problems to City, won against Dinamo and now they even have chances to qualify. Unfortunately, they won’t be able to represent themselves in the best XI in Kharkiv, and I think Shakhtar with all the experiences they have in Champions League, they won’t lose the “pole position” status in the group and win the match. I don’t understand why exactly are odds as high as they are for the home win, but there definitely is the value on the home side. Atalanta will push because the only thing that counts for them is the win, but as they are doing plenty of mistakes in positioning when losing the ball, I think Shakhtar will have too many opportunities to harm them on counter-attacks. Taison is back and I see the 31yrs Brazilian as the “key” in this match, as he will be the one who will most likely lead those counters. In any case, even without Iličić and Zapata, I expected offensive-minded Atalanta to still create enough chances to score here, but as said, I think Shakhtar will simply be the stronger team in this clash. Moreover, Man City will very likely play with plenty of rotations in the team, which means the surprise of Dinamo Zagreb isn’t impossible. In this case, Shakhtar needs all three points as well! Atletico Madrid v Lokomotiv Moscow Betting suggestion: Atletico Madrid & under 4 goals @1,80 Bet365 Short preview: Simeone is probably waiting for the moment to get at least Gimenez back after an injury, but the Uruguayan central defender is still doubtful for the match. Vitolo, Diego Costa, and Savić are out for sure. On the other side, Lokomotiv is coming without a few important players as first goalie Guilherme, and midfielders Barinov, Joao Mario and Ignatyev are out. In any case, Russians have literally nothing to play in this match, as they are at the bottom of the group with only 3 points. Atletico, on the other hand, needs all three points in case if Leverkusen beats Juventus at home, which once again wouldn’t be a surprise, as Juve is already 1st and we will most likely see plenty of rotations of Allegri. Atletico fell into the small result crisis, as they lost twice and draw twice in the last 4 matches. Anyways, there’s no room to fail tonight, as it would definitely be a huge blow for the team if they won’t qualify for the knockout stages. “Luckily” for Atletico, their tonight’s opponent is even in a bigger crisis as they are already 9 points behind 1st placed Zenit and are currently on the 5th spot of Russian Premier League. After the 0-2 defeat against Leverkusen at home, they added two fails in the domestic league as firstly, they lost against Dinamo Moscow at home, and in last match they added a 4-0 lost against Arsenal Tula away. Therefore, they are coming in Madrid with plenty of worries on their shoulders, with minds probably headed to the Sunday’s derby against Zenit. I don’t expect Atletico with all the “problems” they have when it comes to the realisation to destroy the opponent and beat them with a huge difference, but I do expect a score like 2-0, which means both win and the under 4 should pass easily.
  5. Lyon v Leipzig Betting suggestion: both teams to score & over 2,5 @1,80 Pinnacle Short preview: As you probably know, I simply love to take handicaps on Leipzig in Bundesliga, as they really play impressive football, especially up-front. With 30 points and by far the best goal difference in Bundesliga, they are currently only a point behind Gladbach, and I still see them as the biggest “challenger” for Bayern than anyone Gladbach and BVB for example. Their tonight’s opponent won their last match on Friday really comfortably and had a day more to prepare for this match. Konate and Orban are still out, which means the defensive line of “bulls” aren’t as strong as it could be. Garcia is missing both fullbacks, Kone and Dubois, as well, so the main problems of both managers regarding injuries are in defense, which is a “positive” fact to our pick. Both teams are currently at 7 points in the group, therefore the importance of this match is enormous. Logical thinking would be, so they will try to tighten up in defense and play a bit more carefully than usual. Well, both teams conceded 16 goals in their domestic leagues, they both conceded 6 in 5 rounds of Champions League, and on the other hand, they scored 28 and 39 in domestic leagues … What I’m trying to say is, that the main strength of these two is up-front. Both managers have some great forwards in their hands and I simply think that the team who will win tonight, will have to score at least 2… Ajax v Valencia Betting suggestion: both teams to score & over 2,5 @1,78 Pinnacle Short preview: the same pick once again, but this time mainly because Valencia will have to push for the win in Amsterdam, and I consider both teams pretty shaky at the back, and once again pretty decent offensively. The first goalie of Ajax, Onana has some problems but will probably start the match. Out are Neres and Promes, which means ten Hag might start with the veteran Huntelaar as number 9. With the last two wins in La Liga against Villarreal and Levante, Valencia players have raised the atmosphere in the locker room a bit and they are definitely going in Amsterdam without any fear. Lille is out, therefore Chelsea should get an easy win, which means they will be at 11 points, while Ajax and Valencia will fight for the 2nd ticket in knockout phases. A draw would be enough for Ajax and that’s why I expect Valencia to start offensively from the very beginning. With all the experiences Ajax possesses in Champions League, I literally have no doubts they will create dozens of chances in counters. Unfortunately, ten Hag can not count on pacey Promes and Neres, but still, with creativity level of van den Beek, Tadić, Ziyech, … they have more than enough to harm the opponent. Celades will miss some players as well – Gomez, Cillesen, Cheryshev, Kondogbia, Guedes, Sobrino are out due to injuries, while the center back Garay will miss due to suspension.
  6. Arsenal v Brighton Betting suggestion: Arsenal -1 @1,98 Pinnacle Short preview: Will Arsenal beat Brighton with more than a goal difference? Well, I believe they will win the match so, in "worst-case", this bet will be returned. The main reason why I am suggesting the home side here is, of course, the fact, that Gunners decided to sack Unai Emery who looks like or let's say obviously didn't really get along not with the squad, not with the fans. Problems of this squad are definitely in defensive lines, where they can not find the working formula, conceding goals against every single opponent without bigger problems. Last time they didn't concede was on the 6th of October when they won against Bournemouth with 1-0. Since then, they conceded 19 goals in 9 matches in all competitions, therefore it's not a surprise that they won only once in those 9 matches. An interim manager or Arsenal is the clubs legend Ljungberg, who's debut on Emirates might be something special. Honestly, I expect home fans to represent huge support to the team, as they are really in need of positive things start happening to their club. Among possibilities for the new coach is Viera, so another clubs legend, but that isn't even that important right now. The main thing is that all players will have a new chance of showing their best and convincing the new manager to get the place in the first eleven. Quality, especially offensively in this club definitely isn't a question, the question is how to use them in the way to get the best out of them. Emery obviously failed, and I'd say nothing can change in that short period of time, but in this case, I have a feeling that there were soo many "hard feelings", argues, bad relations that some players were with heads far from where they were supposed to be. Somehow relaxed Arsenal, with the "new" spirit in their dressing room and in front of probably the new manager coming in next days, should be motivated enough to beat the poor side of Brighton whose performances aren't as bad as it looks lately, but I simply think that they are coming on Emirates Stadium at the wrong time.
  7. Chelsea v West Ham Betting suggestion: Chelsea -1,5 @1,80 Pinnacle Short preview: The only problem I see for the home side is the recent injury of young prolific striker Abraham, but I think nothing will really change if Lampard puts Belgium striker Batshuayi in, between Pulišić and Willian. From what I’ve seen from Chelsea last week against Manchester City, I have to say I was enormously surprised. It’s obvious that Frank Lampard will be another big coach, transformed from the great player and I am looking forward to seeing how will he transform his football knowledge and ideas onto his players. He has pretty much young squad, a group eager to learn, eager to work and what’s most important, who respects their coach. I won’t even compare the match of West Ham against Tottenham, because they really played catastrophically and I don’t know how they succeeded to bounce back after being already 3-0 down. Well, I expect Chelsea to be dominant, to create many more chances, and to win this match with more than a goal difference. West Ham will miss suspended defender Issa Diop, which is yet another problem for the side who’s in very poor form – won only 1 point in the last 5 matches, against Sheffield United at home. Liverpool v Brighton Betting suggestion: Liverpool -1,5 @1,74 Pinnacle Short preview: Is Liverpool slowly letting the foot from the gas pedal? Well, let’s be honest. You can not simply trash every single opponent with 4-5 goals difference in Premier League, especially when they defend soo deep. Brighton will come on Anfield with super defensive tactics, but I think that offensively, they simply don’t have what’s needed to surprise Liverpool. Reds will miss Fabinho who is their very important player who’s doing great work especially defensively, but I think Brighton will try more with set-pieces and long balls, and less with counters. Last two matches, Brighton lost 3-1 and 0-2 against Manchester United and Leicester, both teams against who you normally are a bit more “fired-up”. Liverpool and Manchester City are teams, against who teams as Brighton are even more motivated but I don’t believe that can be enough to surprise the team, who are having 8 points advantage in a tough Premier League.
  8. Barcelona v Borussia Dortmund Betting suggestion: both teams to score & over 2,5 @1,833 Pinnacle Borussia Dortmund team totals over 1 @1,961 Pinnacle Short preview: As a former huge fan of Barcelona style, I am very disappointed in the last few years, when several managers slowly started "ruining" the work that has been made in history. A team, that was amazing to watch thanks to their superiority in midfield, is now playing almost without the midfield, with straight, direct attacks, plenty of times jumping over the midfield, playing directly on forwards. In the era of Enrique, when it somehow started, it was possible, as he had Neymar, Suarez in best years and Messi, while now, all Valverde's got is Messi, with bunch of talented players like De Jong, Griezmann, Dembele, all somehow used not in their roles, but in roles where tactics as 442 or 4231 offers place. Seeing Griezmann completely on the wing is absurd, but the fact that bothers me the most is the role of Sergio Busquets, one of the key figures of the success in the era of Guardiola (Barcelona) and Del Bosque (Spain). Valverde is using him even in the role of a double pivot, which Busquets most definitely isn't, at least not with instructions he has. Therefore Barcelona now really looks like a very average side, full of superstars, who can perform at their best on good days, and really bad on their bad days. In one word, a very inconsistent team that can be beaten by everyone - yes, even Leganes and Sparta Prague. Why those two teams? Slavia played wonderfully and deserved much more in both matches against Barcelona, while Leganes was easily coping with the pressure of Barça and was able to strike on counters several times. Let me be clear - in this case, we are talking about the last-placed team in La Liga. Without both first full-backs, who are very important in the build-up, or let's say even finishing in the final third, they seem to be lost and the "newbies" as Firpo, have huge pressure on them as they are not adapting fast enough... As it is a very particular way of play. Besides, Sandro Russel assured that Ernesto Valverde will remain on the bench of Barcelona until the end of the season "no matter what happens." Borussia aren't at their best either, as they lost 4-0 in Munich before the international break, and saved a point against weak Paderborn in last minutes (they were 1-3 down). They are currently sixth in Bundesliga, but with a very small gap to catch. Anyways, with the performance, especially in the second half against Inter, they've shown a lot in my opinion and if they repeat a match like this - I am 100% sure they will be fired up and motivated against the top side as Barcelona is. With Reus finally back, Favre has a bit of more options in attack and can easily switch tactics during the match with few substitutions. Against Inter, the right side of BVB worked extremely work and this is the side where Barcelona is still missing Jordi Alba, while the signing - Firpo as mentioned is playing under huge pressure, making plenty of mistakes. Maybe someone will feel strange about my betting suggestions here as BVB is doing pretty poor away from the home and as Barcelona have failed to win only once at Camp Nou this season, but with performances they are showing, with problems at the backline - today, they will miss suspended Pique, while the only positive news is that Arthur and Sergi Roberto are coming back (Roberto, a player that has been promised he will be used as a midfielder this season), but will for sure take the place on the right fullback position tonight. I am well aware of the individual quality of players like Messi, who can decide this match easily, but without help and with Suarez who's ball control is getting weaker and weaker, I think BVB will have plenty of chances in transition. With both defensive lines not being at their best, I expect to see goals in this match. A draw would play for Barcelona as well, as they are current group leaders with 1 point advantage, but like so, they will gamble a lot as they will play on San Siro against Inter in the final round! p.s. Guys, what do you think about Barcelona at the moment? It makes me feel sick watching them.. I know fans should be fans "forever", but if you aren't a habitant of the city where the club plays, it's harder to "keep" the connection no matter what, especially if the "downgradation" is in the process for several years now... and then all the crying stories about how new players aren't performing - Dembele, Coutinho, Griezmann,... dear lord, no one is performing. Messi is carrying this team for years now...
  9. Juventus v Atletico Madrid Betting suggestion: Juventus -0,25 @2,02 Pinnacle Short preview: I expected to see odds for -0,25 handicap a bit lower. AH -0,25 means, we will get half of our stake returned if the match finishes with the draw. It’s true that Sarri has Douglas Costa, Alex Sandro, Chiellini, Rabiot out injured, and that de Ligt, Ronaldo and Bernareschi are all doubtful, but they still have a very good team, and what is even more important for Champions League, very experienced team. Cristiano is listed doubtful, but with his post on twitter yesterday – I am back, and pictures from the training session, I believe he “announced” himself in the first line-up tonight. Juve is already 3 points in front of second-placed Atletico so with three points they will “book” the first place in the group. They are in great form and even when they don’t play at their best, they still win the match, which only says a lot about their mentality. Except against Atalanta in the last round (1-3), they won 8 of their last 9 matches with only a goal difference, and I expect to see something similar tonight. Atletico isn’t at their best, playing only 1-1 against Granada in La Liga last round. Moreover, in the last 5 matches, they have 3 draws, 1 win, and 1 defeat. They won against a very poor side of Espanyol at home and lost away in Leverkusen (2-1). Still, they are in a solid position in Champions League, as they are second with 7 points and 4 points advantage and playing at home against Lokomotiv Moscow in the last round of the group stage. Therefore they still have everything in their hands, and they won’t be under pressure tonight. Anyways, the truth is that with beating Juve today on Allianz Stadium in Torino, they will have chances of taking the first spot in the group,… But still, comparing these two sides at the moment, I see Juventus in a much better state, Ramsey is back, Dybala raising his form, Ronaldo coming back,… For me, odds above 1,90 on -0,25 represents decent value. Manchester City v Shakhtar Donetsk Betting suggestion: Manchester City 1st half -1 @2,02 Pinnacle Manchester City -2,5 @2,15 Pinnacle Short preview: The thing which bothers me a bit is that the defensive line of Manchester City is changing a lot, due to injuries of course. The key player of backline Aymeric Laporte is still absent, and Guardiola is usually putting Fernandinho in pair with Stones/Otamendi, or even the second defensive midfielder Rodri. Uncertain is also who will play in offensive part, as Bernardo was forced to skip the match against Chelsea (accused of racism post on twitter, as he made a joke with his best friend Mendy), and as Mahrez is performing better and better. With Silva picking up a slight injury, it might even happen that Bernardo will be positioned in a bit deeper role, why Mahrez will keep his spot on the right-wing. The central striker will be Jesus, as Kun Aguero is out injured. While Man City is currently 3rd in Premier League, Shakhtar is very comfortable in the first place of the Ukranian Premier League, with 13 points advantage and goal difference +37. With 5 points in the group, they still have chances of qualifying and will play against Atalanta at home in the last round, but it will be very tough to take points from Etihad, especially with so many problems as they will have today. Luis Castro will miss suspended Marlos, while Taison is injured. Each scored 6 goals in 11 matches so far and are irreplaceable figures of this team. When it comes to “ball-carrying”, Taison has the competition high with 1811 meters (1049 of these, upwards on the field)! Manchester City and Shakhtar played against each other several times in past years and Citizens have won 4 of 5 last matches, all of them with the clean sheet. Guardiola is always speaking very highly about the Ukranian league, how full of talents it is, so I expect them being fully prepared for this match, which as the manager said, is crucial, as he wants to go in Zagreb without any pressure. With the win over Chelsea, City have shown a bit more of maturity, as they scored in a moment when they weren’t performing as they should. Winning matches like this are very important for the morale and I believe we won’t see them failing that soon, therefore I expect a comfortable victory. Tottenham v Olympiacos Betting suggestion: Tottenham 1st half -0,5 @1,81 Pinnacle Tottenham -1,5 @1,99 Pinnacle Tottenham ht/ft @1,91 Short preview: After several ups and downs, and some mini-clashes inside the locker room, Spurs have decided to change the coach and Pochettino was replaced by Mourinho. The Portuguese coach has already shown an impact on the team, which will (not surprisingly) play more direct, without “play out of the back” style, and to be honest, I think that Mourinho got a very interesting team in his hands, regarding the way of how he wants to play. He has lots of physicality in players like N’Dombele, Dier, Sissoko, Wanyama, plenty of pace and individual quality in Son, Lucas, physical, pacy fullbacks, and plenty other quality individuals like Alli, Lamela, Eriksen and we should not forget the “leader” Kane,… Son has already told the press that the football they were used to play will change, but that it can help the group on the mutual road to win trophies. Mourinho, even though he had some unsuccessful spells lately is definitely a manager who can do something with this group and in my opinion, it will be something big, or nothing at all – I want to say that I don’t expect some kind of “average result”. Today’s opponent Olympiacos is at the bottom of the group, they’ve won only 1 point in 4 matches, and they are a terrible away team – lost with Crvena Zvezda 3-1 and Bayern 2-0. I’m sure they will position really deep on the pitch but Tottenham have plenty of answers on this kind of tactic… What bothers Spurs so far is how to calmly finish the “already won” match, and that’s why my favorite pick here is for them to win the first half. I’m sure they will push with force from the first minute and try to make the difference early in the game. They are a way better side, they have plenty of experiences with Champions league, they have a very experienced manager I expect nothing less, than a big win of their side. Atalanta v Dinamo Zagreb Betting suggestion: both teams to score & over 2,5 goals @1,943 Pinnacle Short preview: Even though Italians are with only 1 point sitting at the bottom of the group C, where Manchester City will most likely take the first points as they have 5 points advantage already, they still have some theoretical chances of qualifying … They have to win their last two matches and count on Manchester City to do their part of the job. This match is coming after a tough clash with Juventus, which they lost 3-1, but they had plenty of chances to make it 2-0, so with a little bit of luck, everything might be finished differently. They are a team that is trying to develop their game, who is playing with their style, regardless of the opponent is Man City or Dinamo. Of course, experiences are hardly on the side of Croatians, as it is the first time in history Atalanta is competing in this elite competition, but after a catastrophic performance in Zagreb, where they lost with 4-0, I expect them being eager to revenge this result, where yes, Dinamo played well, but it was also one of those games, where everything works for one, and nothing for the other side. Dinamo is relaxed in the first position of 1. HNL, but they can feel their chances of qualifying and they will be under a bit of pressure tonight. Both sides are great offensively, while especially Atalanta isn’t too good behind, as they are way too much focused on attack. Comparing with the match against Juventus, Gasparini will be able to count on Muriel, Malinovskiy, and Iličić, therefore three very important players of his side. Therefore I see a bunch of value in odds on over with the addition of both teams to score, which is my main suggestion for this match.
  10. Crystal Palace v Liverpool Betting suggestion: Crystal Palace to score @1,71 Pinnacle Both teams to score & over 2,5 @2,26 Pinnacle Short preview: Crystal Palace again. Current league leaders are coming on to Selhurst Park in London, where they will surely look for the win, and put more pressure on Manchester City who will play against Chelsea later. International break brought plenty of worries for Klopp, as Henderson was ill, Gomez picked up an injury on the training,… While Robertson and Salah had problems with ankle and even though they are close to being fully fit, I wouldn’t expect Klopp to send both in the action. In any case, Liverpool have an amazing squad, and even if they rotate with the squad, we will still see a very decent squad on the pitch. As I mentioned last time, I think Crystal Palace is a team, who is made to make surprises. They are a team, who is easily fired-up against big teams. With the names, they have in the squad, especially offensively, I think that things will soon turn around, as they scored only once in the last four matches. Well, the truth is they faced Manchester City, Arsenal, Leicester, and Chelsea, and with Liverpool coming, their schedule was far from easy, but as mentioned, international breaks aren’t helpful at all for big teams and every season we can see, that some of them have big problems on first matches… Will that be the case for Liverpool?
  11. Leganes v Barcelona Betting suggestion: Barcelona -1 @1,84 Short preview: The last positioned Leganes, who “collected” only 6 points in 13 rounds will early on Saturday host the current leaders of La Liga, FC Barcelona. Besides the catastrophic start of the season 2019/20 for Leganes, they won’t be able to count on several players – Marc Navaro and Cristian Rivera are injured, while Recio and Kevin Rodrigues are suspended for the clash with the Catalan giant. On the other side, Barcelona is coming without Semedo, Alba, Lengled, Arthur and Sergi Roberto, which means Valverde will face problems especially in the defensive part of the team, as he will be without the right fullback. As it looks, that will be a chance for young Moussa Wague, who will partner Pique, Umtiti, and Firpo in the back four. However Barcelona lost 2-1 here last season, I can not past the value bookies are offering with odds above 1,80 on asian handicap -1, which once again means that if Barcelona wins for only a goal difference, your stake will be voided. La Liga is completely La Liga Loca this season as only 5 points are between 1st Barcelona and 10th Levante. Therefore there will be no room for mistakes and I expect favorites to get the job done, even though it’s gonna be the first match after the international break. I think that even though this season all Spanish giants made several fails, lost points literally everywhere, I believe that we won’t see odds like 1,45 on the victory of Barcelona.
  12. Completely agree with you @StevieDay1983... Besides the ht/ft market, I am also looking at win with the clean sheet, and asian handicaps (-1, -1,5)... I think that Wales will be the one scoring first and after that, there will be simply too much space as Hungarians will have to push higher...
  13. Romania v Sweden Betting suggestion: both teams to score @1,91 Pinnacle Short preview: Two rounds before the end of qualifiers, we have Sweden on 2nd and Romania on 3rd spot, with only 1 point advantage for Scandinavians, who are coming in Bucuresti, where they will try to remain unbeaten and look for confirmation of the final 2nd place in the last round when they will host Faroe Islands in Stockholm. Romania, on the other hand, have to win all three points and surprise Spain in the last round. The fact is that Spain is already 1st in the group, and will probably add another 3 points tonight against Malta, so their coach might give a chance to some players who haven't played that much so far... In any case, there are still chances for Romania and as long as they are, I believe they will fight for that. While Sweden is coming with the full squad, Romania will miss striker Andone, which means Puscas will most likely play the role of number 9, with Coman, Deac, and Hagi behind him. This Romanian squad have scored in every match in those qualifiers and at home, in front of the huge support from the stands, I expect them motivated and hyped... Regardless of the importance of this match, I believe they won't calculate too much and play in the way they prefer - offensive, but on the other side I do expect that the tough Sweden side, with most likely 442 formation, will score at least once, if not even twice, regarding the fact that Romanians will push higher if they won't have the result which will suit them. The last match in Stockholm finished with 2-1 for Sweden. Scandinavians have scored 11 goals in 4 matches away from home (0 against Spain, 4 against Malta and Faroe Islands, and 3 against Norway). Once again, for the home side, everything that counts is to take all three points tonight...
  14. Turkey v Iceland Betting suggestion: Turkey -0,75 @1,90 SBO Short preview: Everyone expected France to beat Turkey in the last international break, but the match on Stade de France finished with 1-1, and Turkey was actually as close to all three points as France, if not even a bit more. Today, they will miss their best goalscorer Cheikh Tosun, which probably means that the tall offensive midfielder of Fortuna Dusseldorf, Kenan Karaman will take his spot aside from Yilmaz, who will most likely take the spot number 9. Both sides are mathematically still “in the game”, but the fact is that Turkey will take care of everything if they win tonight. As they have better h2h with France, they will remain 1st as long as they will have the same number of points as the current World champions. If they beat Iceland, they will have an easy task in the last round, as they travel to Andorra. On the other hand, if they fail today, they will for sure find themselves on the second spot as I am 100% sure France won’t lose points against Moldova at home. Turkey is expected to be positioned in 433 formation, but even if so, I believe they will be careful against the Icelandic 4411, where probably the only question is who will lead the attack – or Sightorsson, or Finbogasson. A huge blow for the away side is the absence of Burnley’s winger Gudmundsson. As said, a very important match for Turkey, while for Iceland, even if they win, I believe they are very aware of the situation, which means that if Turkey wins the last match, they have no chance of qualifying. H2h stats are strongly on the side of Iceland (they won on the last 3 meetings), but the truth is also that Iceland reached the top of this generation on Euro 2016 and since then, they started slowly falling. Honestly, I am surprised to see them at 15 points, but it’s also true that they have two very poor teams in the group (Andorra and Moldova). Czech Republic v Kosovo Betting suggestions: Kosovo to score @1,60 Pinnacle both teams to score & over 2,5 @2,240 Pinnacle In group A, we have only 5 teams and England is even though they lost in Czech Republic with 2-1, still in the first place with 3 points advantage and will most likely keep the first spot. Tonight, they play at home against Montenegro and are huge favorites to beat them, which means they will be at 18 points. An answer to the question who will take the second spot will be probably known tonight after this match as currently, Czech Republic is 2nd with 12, and Kosovo is 3rd with 11 points. One big difference is also that Czech’s will play their last match in Bulgaria (3 points), while Kosovo will host England at home. It can easily happen that England will already 1st and play in Pristina with the rotated squad, but for that, Kosovo needs to take at least a point today in Prague. I’d probably suggest taking the +0,5 as well here, but the fact that Kosovo is coming into this match without their key striker Muriqi pushed me away from this idea. Still, with Muriqi or without him, this side possess something special. In my opinion, the biggest difference is in their nation, belief and simply a fighting spirit. Will that be enough to surprise pretty much solid Czech’s tonight? Czech’s will miss the Leipzig’s striker Schick as well, but with the way how those two national sides play, I expect to see at least a goal on both sides.
  15. Chelsea v Crystal Palace Betting suggestion: Crystal Palace team totals over 0,5 @1,80 Pinnacle Crystal Palace +1,5 @1,95 Short preview: Chelsea is coming into this encounter after a goal-fest with Ajax in midweek, where they returned in the match after being 1-4 behind. The way how they play, they like to have the possession, they play with plenty of offensive-minded players in the lineup and even though Crystal Palace is one of the most inconsistent teams in the league, especially when considering the quality they possess, I do think that Chelsea’s game style will suit them, as they like to sit deeper and strike with counters. They have some very pacy players, and they have 0 problems with injuries for this match. Palace got the same amount of points at home and away in the last 10 matches, and they are usually a team that is tough to beat when you are a “big” favorite. I honestly expected to see odds a bit less in favor of a team, who won with more than a goal difference only once in the last five home matches. Therefore I like both, Crystal Palace to score and Crystal Palace to cover the +1,5 asian handicap, which means Chelsea should not win with more than a goal difference.