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Pep004 last won the day on February 7 2017

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About Pep004

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  1. Chelsea v Crystal Palace Betting suggestion: Crystal Palace team totals over 0,5 @1,80 Pinnacle Crystal Palace +1,5 @1,95 Short preview: Chelsea is coming into this encounter after a goal-fest with Ajax in midweek, where they returned in the match after being 1-4 behind. The way how they play, they like to have the possession, they play with plenty of offensive-minded players in the lineup and even though Crystal Palace is one of the most inconsistent teams in the league, especially when considering the quality they possess, I do think that Chelsea’s game style will suit them, as they like to sit deeper and strike with counters. They have some very pacy players, and they have 0 problems with injuries for this match. Palace got the same amount of points at home and away in the last 10 matches, and they are usually a team that is tough to beat when you are a “big” favorite. I honestly expected to see odds a bit less in favor of a team, who won with more than a goal difference only once in the last five home matches. Therefore I like both, Crystal Palace to score and Crystal Palace to cover the +1,5 asian handicap, which means Chelsea should not win with more than a goal difference.
  2. Real Sociedad v Lleganes Betting suggestions: Real Sociedad -0,75 @1,97 Pinnacle over 2,25 goals @2,06 Pinnacle Short preview: Firstly, I had only Real Sociedad to win on my list, but I suggest a bit smaller stake on over in goals as well. I can remember matches from the last season, where Sociedad entered them as a big favorite but started the match with few missed chances and playing too much comfortably, letting a lot of space in the defense and the opponent took advantage. Truth is, that they look a bit more serious this season, more mature, and therefore I believe that they will win this match, but I think they will have to score twice to get it “c0mfortably”. Leganes is in a horrible form, winning only 5 points in 12 matches so far and it’s not a surprise to see them at the bottom of La Liga. Their opponent is completely on the other side of the league table, as they are “sharing” the first spot with Barcelona and Real Madrid. Unfortunately, Odegaard is still out injured, but they seemed pretty strong without him in Granada. Basque team has an opportunity to jump on the first place of La Liga, and who else would you want to play against than the worst team in the league at the moment? Valencia v Granada Betting suggestion: Valencia -1 @2,26 Pinnacle Short preview: Valencia overturned the result in mid-week against Lille, and won 4-1, so they are coming into this clash with Granada with heads up. With some players coming back from injury, they start looking better and better, and soon, I expect them higher on the league table. Current 13th place looks bad, but results in La Liga this season are something “new”, as even Valencia is only 5 points behind the league leaders. Therefore nothing is lost but it will be crucial to collect points at home. Granada seemed like a surprise of the season three weeks ago, but two consecutive defeats against Getafe away and Real Sociedad at home “pushed” them in the 6th place. Still, they are 2 points behind the 1st and 3 in front of 13th Valencia, but I think Valencia should simply take advantage of quality difference and the home stadium, so I expect all three points to stay at home. Granada isn’t afraid to attack, so I believe they won’t play defensively, which I see as an opportunity for the home side to score even more. Atletico Madrid v Espanyol Betting suggestion: Atletico Madrid -1 @1,88 Pinnacle Short preview: Talking about the worst team in the league, Espanyol isn’t far from that. They’ve got 3 points more than Leganes, but still… 8 points of possible 36 is a catastrophic result and considering the away match on Wanda Metropolitano, where Atletico conceded only 1 goal in last 4 matches, I can not see “anything good” happening for Espanyol in this round. Atletico lost the champions league match in Leverkusen on Wednesday, but Espanyol will play the match even a day later (today against Ludogorets), so all in all, Atletico will have a day more to rest. Besides all of that, Simeone has a way bigger squad, so that’s the factor going in favor of the home side. Atletico is at the moment only a point away from the first three teams, but as mentioned above, one or two bad results can very easily kick you down to the 13th spot. I’ve been looking at the odds on the clean sheet, on Atletico to win to nil, but I think the best suggestion is simply to take the Asian handicap -1, which means the bet will be voided in case of only a goal difference in favor of Atletico. Honestly, I can not see Espanyol setting up a surprise in this one … Betis v Sevilla Betting suggestion: over 3 goals @2,46 Pinnacle Short preview: Without a doubt the biggest match of La Liga this round will be played in Sevilla, where Betis will host the city rival Sevilla on Benito Villamarin stadium, which is known as one of the loudest venues in Spain. While Sevilla is doing pretty fine, having 21 points, being on the 5th place, only 2 points behind the league leaders, their rival, with 13 points in 12 matches aren’t in the best form, but at the same time we have to mention that they’ve won against Celta in the last match at home, and snapped a point on Santiago Bernabeu last round, so they are coming in to the derby Sevillano with a solid atmosphere. In any case, in matches like this, current standings aren’t really important… The last match on Pizjuan finished with 3-2, and I expect to see a goal-fest this time as well.
  3. Cyprus v Russia; 18:00 Betting suggestion: Russia -1 @2,05 Pinnacle Short preview: With a 1-2 win over Kazahstan in last round, Cyprus with 10 points, is “comfortably” sitting on the 3rd spot, which of course doesn’t mean anything special, when you see Belgium and Russia already at 18 and 21 points. Cyprus lost 3 matches in this group – besides Russia and Belgium, they lost against Scotland too and of course, they have zero chances of qualifying on Euro. Russia on the other side won their last match against Scotland with 4-0, their goal difference is +18, they have 6 wins in a row, with the only defeat in those qualifications against Belgium away, but they will play against Belgium at home in next match… In any case, Russia is currently amongst the best 2nd placed teams, which means that they can directly qualify even as a second-placed team. Slovenia v Austria; 20:45 Betting suggestion: over 2,5 @2,16 Pinnacle Short preview: In group G, everything got even more complicated as Slovenia lost in North Macedonia. Poland “jumped” a bit away again, winning in Latvia, while Austria took the “Slovenian” place with a win over Israel at home with 3-1. Austrians were losing 0-1, but they were a better side and until the end of the match succeeded to turn the result in their favor. Slovenia played one let’s say acceptable and one catastrophic half-time against North Macedonia, and while they didn’t score from their chances in the first half, Macedonians did in the second, and the final result should probably even stay at 2-0 as Slovenia got a pretty much offered penalty in last minutes. With the current position, with the fact that they play against Poland in the last round of qualifications, truth is that only 3 points somehow count for Slovenia, and they will have to attack that. On the other side, if anyone could accept a point, that it’s Austria, as they play against North Macedonia at home and Latvia away in the next two fixtures. In any case, Austrians have a decent team, with plenty of players playing on a really high level, being regulars in their clubs, and that’s the reason which should make the difference at the end… In any case, Slovenia will play in front of a sold-out stadium, they won against Poland and Israel in the last two home matches and everything is possible… Poland v North Macedonia; 20:45 Betting suggestion: Poland -1 @1,89 Pinnacle Short preview: North Macedonia cooked things up by beating Slovenia in the last round, and now they are on a third position with the same number of points. They won’t have an easy match until the end as they play against Austria and Israel, therefore they will have to show something more than just defend and try with counters in the next fixtures. The main reason why I am suggesting this bet is that they still have some problems with the lineup, especially in defense and with all the spaces they were letting open for Slovenia in the first half, I think that they will find themselves already 2-3 goals behind the opponent, especially when you consider the enormous form of Lewandowski. Without a doubt, Macedonia has a solid team, especially defensively, but as mentioned they have some injury problems, some players aren’t 100% fit and Poland should use that and “finish” the question about the 1st place. If Slovenia gets points against Austria, Lewa & the company can make a huge step to the qualifications.
  4. Latvia v Poland; 20:45 Betting suggestion: Poland -2 @1,80 Pinnacle Short preview: I think there is no need for a special explanation. True, every win counts only three points, regardless if it’s 0-1 or 0-5, but with 2-0 defeat in Slovenia, and 0-0 draw at home against Austria, things got complicated even for Poland, who was the big favorite in this group and at the end, it might happen that the goal difference will play its role as well. At the moment, Slovenia and Austria have the best one (+7), Poland is at +6, both Israel and North Macedonia at +0. Slovenia made the biggest difference exactly here in Riga, where they’ve won 0-5. Lewandowski is in a superb form, scoring most goals in Europe this season, scoring every match for Bayern Munchen. The national coach of Poland made a small mistake in the lineup against Slovenia, positioning Zielinski out on the side, instead of more central as he plays in Napoli (in 433 formation). Without “active” Zielinski, Poland depends too much on the individual work of Lewandowski, which wasn’t enough against Slovenia, but even so, it should be enough against a poor side as Latvia (6 matches, 6 defeats, goal difference 1:21).
  5. North Macedonia v Slovenia; 20:45 Betting suggestion: Slovenia -0,25 @1,90 Pinnacle Short preview: group G is one of the most interesting so far. It's not that interesting because of teams playing in, but because of the situation on the table. Except for Latvia (6 matches, 6 defeats, goal difference 1:21), all teams are still in the position to qualify. North Macedonia is 4th, with 8 points, same as Israel, 2 less than Austria, 3 less than Slovenia and 5 less than Poland. Group leaders Poland were in a great position before the last international break, but they lost in Slovenia (2-0) and played a draw with Austria at home (0-0). Regarding the not the best start of Slovenia in qualifications, no one really expected 6 points in the last int. break, but that's exactly what happened, and not just that they got it, they also played really solid, which means that the national manager Matjaz Kek, who already led this country to the World Cup in 2010, is once again on a good way to make something big with the small country as Slovenia is. A classic problem of their team is that often, there are players who aren't regulars in their clubs, but football played in clubs, and football played in national level is completely different, preparations are different, therefore players need to know how to listen, adapt, and simply do their best for the country. It looks like Kek is on a good way of reaching that, but even though they are on the 2nd spot at the moment, the next two fixtures are once again crucial. First, they have to win North Macedonia, especially if Austria wins against Israel at home, and then they will host Austria on Sunday in Slovenia... Tonight's opponent will be everything but easy, as they look better and better under the leadership of Angelovski, who will miss Levante's midfielder Bardhi and Rijeka's defender Velkovski, who are pretty important players. Besides them, another important player Ristovski who plays for Sporting Lisbona is not 100% fit, so we will see some changes in the lineup. One point would probably be pretty much useless for both sides, especially for Macedonia, as they are traveling to Poland in the next match. With some difficulties especially in defense and need of 3 points, I think Slovenia will have enough space in counters, to grab an important win.
  6. Hello, major football leagues are slowly coming back to the action. Most of Ligue 1 clubs have already started with their pre-seasons, and I decided to keep an eye on them, following their squads, transfers, changes in the style of playing etc. For the first time, I've decided to get involved in friendly matches. All the analyses will be posted on my site, but I will be posting them here as well if anyone is interested. I thought the match will start at 20:00, so I am too late with todays suggestion (Marseille half time -0,5 @1,85) but I'll post others. Cheers
  7. Watford v Wolverhampton; 16:00 Betting suggestion: Both teams to score @1,85 Pinnacle Short preview: That will be a meeting of two very interesting sides this season in Premier League, who are neighbors on the league table as Watford is 7th with 51 points, and Wolverhampton is just a point behind on the 8th place. Even though we can see they don’t have a chance to enter the top6 and be a part of the European competition, that might not be true. Watford is playing the FA cup final and if they win it, they will get the ticket for the Europa League next season, while if Man City wins, the 7th place in Premier League will lead to Europa League, therefore they have chances of entering this competition on two different fronts. I’ve seen debates about Watford players have their heads at the final already, I think the club knows that there is still much to play and that to count on a win against City won’t be really an easy thing to do. When Wolves are coming in Watford with the full squad, Javi Garcia has some problems as his captain and best scorer Troy Deeney is suspended for this match, and Bertrand and Armstrong are doubtful. In any case, both teams have lots of offensive potentials and I expect both teams to score at least a goal here.
  8. Eintracht Frankfurt v Hertha Berlin; 15:30 Betting suggestion: Eintracht Frankfurt first half -0,5 @1,88 Pinnacle Short preview: Eintracht is still one of the biggest surprises in Europe this season, holding the 4th position in Bundesliga and reaching semis of Europa League, recently beating Benfica with 2-0 and overcoming the 4-2 defeat in Lisbon. The away side is coming into this match with much more problems in the squad, as Grujic and Stark are suspended, Luckassen is doubtful, and some others are still on the injury list. Still, the great season can quickly turn into an “average” one, as Gladbach, Leverkusen, and Hoffenheim are all on 3 or fewer points difference. Therefore we can expect a huge battle between these clubs in the final run of Bundesliga. Hertha is on the 11th spot, 15 points above the relegation zone, so they can play without any pressure. Of course, in football that often brings pretty good performances, but there is a reason why is Frankfurt holding the Champions League spot right now. In matches like this, it usually happens that longer it stays 0-0, more nervous the match gets, and I expect Frankfurt once again making a difference already in the first half.
  9. I am actually thinking about Watford over 1,5 ... They have "nothing" to play for and they possess a lot of quality in their squad, especially offensive. Seeing them creating chance after chance against Man United, I think they can do the same against Arsenal. Truth is, that the conversion rate of those chances was poor, but with a bit better day today, they could score at least 2.
  10. Leganes v Real Madrid Betting suggestion: Real Madrid -0,5 @1,72 Pinnacle Short preview: One statistical fact to begin with: Real Madrid wins 67% of matches with odds around 1,70. Even though Real Madrid isn’t playing at their prime right now, they’ve won 4 of last 5 matches, and even if Leganes is far from an easy opponent at home, I expect Real Madrid to have an upper hand in this match and contribute on the scoreboard at least once more than the opponent. Both teams look interesting as well, as captain Sergio Ramos is still out, but I decided to simply suggest narrow win of Real Madrid, which is priced extremely well regarding the usual prices on this team. Of course, everything is a consequence of not so brilliant season this year, but Zidane is here once again and he will try to “reboot” the team. Leganes have plenty of injury woes at the moment, as Omeruo, Recio, Arnaiz, El Zhar, El-Nesyri are all doubtful, while Rodriguez and Lunin aren’t allowed to play as they are loaned from Real Madrid. Los Galacticos seems to be safe on the third position, which means they will be part of the Champions League next season, but when you are in the club like Real Madrid than only reach CL isn’t enough and everyone expects you to win on matches, especially like this one is. Leganes have won 3 of last 4 matches, they are on a defeatless run for 4 consecutive matches, but I expect Real Madrid to stop the run and keep the pressure on Atletico Madrid who is currently 5 points in front of them.
  11. Real Sociedad v Eibar Betting suggestion: both teams to score @1,74 Short preview: What I like here is that both teams are without any kind of pressure. Both sitting in the middle of the league table – Real Sociedad is 11th with 10 wins, 10 draws and 11 defeats when Eibar is two places lower with 9 wins, 12 draws and 10 defeats. I cannot see any of these two climbing much higher from where they are, even though they are only 6 and 7 points behind 6th Valencia. At the same time, they are 9 and 10 points in front of 18th Villarreal, so, for now, either of those two cannot feel a serious pressure from bottom teams. An interesting fact is that both teams scored and conceded at least a goal in the last 5 matches and that both were defeated in last round – Sociedad in Vigo against Celta, while Eibar lost against Real Madrid, even though they had a 0-1 lead until the 59th minute. Eibar likes to push higher, play with pressing and therefore I expect goals in this encounter.
  12. Sampdoria – Genova Betting suggestion: Sampdoria -0,5 @2,06 Pinnacle Short preview: Even though Sampdoria is in a pretty bad form lately, having 2 defeats in a row, we have to mention that they played against Torino which is very good at home and Roma, which is fighting for a European spot for the next year. With 45 points, it looks that Sampdoria is slowly losing the connection with places for Europe, even though they are still only 4 points behind Lazio and Torino, Atalanta currently the 6th placed team of Serie A is 7 points in front. If they lose points against Genoa today, then I think we can somehow say that the European fight for Sampdoria will be over. Today's opponent is with 34 points only 6 points above the relegation zone, therefore every point will count for them. They succeeded to steal a point from Napoli in last round, but at the same time lost with teams like Udinese and Parma in last matches. Funny thing is, that they won only 4 points in the last 5 matches, and they won it against Napoli and Juventus. In any case, there is a reason that Sampdoria is 11 points in front of them and I expect the side to get the job done today.
  13. Sampdoria v AC Milan Betting suggestion: over 2,5 & both teams to score @2,37 Bet365 Short preview: I was surprised to see odds that high, even though it’s true that Milan is capable of playing a bit more cautious, but I think they won’t be able to take this road today, as Sampdoria will try to attack and stay close to European places. Milan is currently holding the 4th place with 4 points above Roma, they had a very good streak but ruined it in the last match where they lost to their city rival Inter with 2-3. Bonaventura will be the only missing for the away side, while Sampdoria will miss Ekdal, Barreto, and Caprari. Even though we’ve seen some crazy results already, which is just proving the point that is important to be really smart with stakes after international breaks, I think that mentality of the home team is simply too offensive minded. I think that the first goal will change things completely and we’ll watch a pretty open match. Sampdoria scored 49 goals in 28 matches, and at the same time conceded 38. Milan scored 6 goals less, and conceded only 26, which is less than a goal per game, and which is also why odds aren’t really favorizing the over here, but I think that Sampdoria will inject a quick tempo to this match, and Milan, as they can, will simply have to follow it.
  14. Portugal v Serbia Betting suggestion: Serbia team totals over 0,5 @1,854 Pinnacle Short preview: I tweeted about this match this morning, expressing my leans to Serbia covering the Asian handicap +1 and odds for this selection jumped from starting 1,63 to 2,04. I don’t have any news about it, but seeing the potential lineups nothing has really changed in the squad of Serbia. Of course, the fact that they have billions of problems with the football association in this country isn’t anything new, but I think that between players who are there and the coach – who is apparently problematic as well, there is a solid relationship. With performance against Germany, they showed once again that they have a very decent squad with at the moment the hottest number 9 in Europe. Luka Jović, who scored 23 goals this season (10 with the right foot, 9 with left, 4 headers) is probably one of most complete forwards at the moment and in a very good form. Of course, on the other side, there will be Cristiano Ronaldo, who’s in excellent form as well and besides him, in my opinion, one of the most improved players in past years Bernardo Silva – who is currently one of the best if not the best individual in Premier League. Without a doubt, Portugal have covered all places very well, but as they play with both fullbacks pushing really high on the pitch, I see chances for Serbia. Tadić is another great name in the squad of Krstajić, whose performances are on the highest level this season, but besides him, Krstajić has other individuals as Ljajić, Gaćinović (teammate of Jović in Frankfurt), Milenković, Milinković-Savić, and others. There is another thing when it comes for matches of “Balkan teams” and that is self-confidence and morale in general. They are capable of setting the mindset much higher of their abilities. Generations coming into senior squad have won a lot so good results against teams like Portugal isn’t anything new for them. There are some changes expected from the side of Portugal as Dyego Sousa might come in instead of Andre Silva, and Rafa instead of Ruben Neves. Even though I won’t be surprised to see Portugal starting cautiously, I think that both sides have a lot of offensive talent and that we’ll see some goals here. Therefore, my suggestions are also both teams to score @2,20.
  15. Eintracht Frankfurt v Nürnberg Betting suggestion: Eintracht 1st half -0,5 @1,82 Pinnacle Short preview: Even though the home team had a tough match in Milano in midweek, I believe that they are coming home even more motivated, as they surprised Inter and knocked them out of Europa League. They have few players doubtful, but they are still a way better opponent than the away side. Eintracht is still keeping the link with first four teams, and with new 3 points, they will be once again only a point away from Gladbach. Haller and Rebić will start on the bench, but that doesn't really bother me as the man in form Jović is in the first lineup. Last-placed Nürnberg will miss even more important players as defender Leibold and forward Pereira are suspended, while Valentini, Petrak, Zrelak, and Misidjan are still out injured. All in all, I expect Frankfurt to make things clear very early in the match and have at least a goal advantage already in the first half.