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EuroDream

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  1. I will play small double in this round.... Manchester Untied -1.5... they simply play well and Burnely is nothing special imo they lost the first game also...few more wins and Man Utd will be in Champions league spots and that is probably the main goal for them. Burnely mostly looses with two goals difference to top teams. Wolves - West Ham BTTS West Ham has goals in them throughout the season while Wolves are decent in that department as well... Even though West Ham is not a top team they do play that way going into offense what proved this season to fit well to Wolves doing counters.
  2. I am playing on Friday in Levante - Girona Over 2.5, in Espanyol - Leganes Under 2.5... Saturday and Sunday I havent analysed yet but I fancy Betis win, Valencia not to lose at Alaves, Real Madrid game over 2.5, Eibar - Villareal BTTS and Sevilla DNB... Sorry I don't have much time to write previews...but who reads those anyways GL!
  3. Bournemouth - Watford X2 I am again against Bournemouth, I am not so confident they will lose but I am confident they will not win so double chance on X2 with some poor odds with high probability of going through. In the first game Watford lost 0:4 but they got a red card in 1st HT and still the statistics didn't go that much on the Bournemouth side. Newcastle - Man Utd AWAY WIN Newcastle is obviously not an easy opponent considering they were 0:2 up in the first game between them where Man Utd grinded out a win in last minutes but situation in Man Utd changed and they play confidently in last rounds. Newcastle lost at home to all top sides and almost all with 1:2...I could imagine it happening again. Man City - Liverpool BTTS Two strong opponents so I expect goals from both sides with most probable outcome 1:1. Liverpool with slightly better defense but I believe Man City has slightly better offense so it comes down to before mentioned result. I realized that Man City concedes at least a goal all the way to their CL game against Lyon. For the rest of the games I would have considered Huddersfield to grab a win against Burnley but one of their best players Mooy is injured so no bet just like West Ham who also has lots of missings.
  4. Inter WIN They won in last round against Napoli and they will go for more points at Empoli, an attacking team, it might sound risky but I believe that Inter will punish them just like Sampdoria in last round. Sassuolo - Atalanta BTTS Sassuolo scores in almost all home games and they will host Atalanta a team that managed to score twice against Juventus and which seems in good scoring shape in last few rounds. Genoa - Fiorentina BTTS Genoa games have BTTS in most of its games but were not successfull to score at Calgiari but they do score against almost all top teams. Fiorentina also didn't score in last round but before that they had lots of goals in them. Both teams didn't score and both lost their games and I see an open game here with goals from both sides in desire for 3 points.
  5. Hello everyone! I will play this 3 games as a parlay... Brighton - Everton BTTS @1.8 7/10 At first I had a feeling I should take Brighton DNB but Everton super performance in last round got me off of it so I decided to take the safer option. Brighton scores in almost all home games and after Everton scoring 5 goals in last round at least one goal from them should be expected to make this bet go through. Everton had two 2:2 results against weaker opponents previously this season on the road. Watford - Newcastle HOME WIN @1.8 6/10 I am backing Watford all the way since their Man City game, at Everton I had them DNB, then two Wins and against Chelsea since I expected Chelsea is however a bit stronger opponent I placed BTTS(and I said Chelsea will need at least 2 goals to win). All in all Watford plays just fine in last rounds while Newcastle is in average shape imo and although it seems less likely to happen I expect again the same result we have seen in previous 2 seasons...2:1. In the first game between them it was 1:0 but Watford was somewhat more dominant so Newcastle win was non deserving, it should have been at least a draw. They both had a draw at Everton but Watford was slightly closer to grab a win there. I don't expect a blowout of Newcastle but usual and most often result in football...a win by one goal of home team. Watford also has much better goal difference and is better placed on the standings. They have also both played against West Ham recently with opposite performance - in favor of Watford again. Liverpool - Arsenal HOME WIN @1.5 8/10 Liverpool is going for the title and they play well and go into that direction, they need to collect as much points as they can before the Champions league campaign starts again. I rate Arsenal and Man Utd somewhat similar and therefore I expect similar result like Liverpool had against Man Utd. I heard someone saying that Arsenal on the road under Emery is playing better than under Wenger but to me it seems all the same, they had pretty weak opponents so far and they lost to Southampton recently who wanted a win under new manager. Liverpool however doesn't have a new manager but they also want a win for the title. From other games I wanted to take Fulham to win, they still didn't win under new manager but I just don't trust them. They had a lead against Wolves 15' before the end and at the end they almost lost the game...and Huddersfield managed to score in last two games. And something tells me not to touch the Tottenham game, yep they play nicely in last rounds but Wolves are counter team and could make a surprise. At those odds it is not worth it and taking Tottenham again on handicap seems unlikely to happen even by statistics. As for Leicester game I have no opinion since Cardiff is a mystery to me GL y'all!!!
  6. I haven't seen the odds for these bets but I don't care, I will play it whatever they will price it... Fulham-Wolves BTTS&Over 2.5 Fulham under new manager still didn't find any luck but Wolves might be a good client since they tend to under perform against weak sides. It's been 5 rounds since Fulham win over Southampton 3:2 and I have a feeling they could get something out of this game. Still I don't trust any side here because it could go either way but I see goals in this one. They both didn't score in their last games and usually the game after that the goals are coming, this time I expect it from both sides as both will see their chances in this game and therefore I expect an open attacking game. Another Fulham home win was 4:2 against Burnley and I see a pattern here when they are determined to win. Burnley - Everton BTTS Until now Burnley scored in all of their home games except against Man Utd and Chelsea and Everton is lower level than these teams. Also Everton conceded 6 goals in their last game so I expect at least 1 goal from Burnley in this game. Even though Everton in away games sometimes defends the result and doesn't play that determined but they tend to do it mostly against top sides. Both teams lost in their last games and I expect them both to go for points here, especially Everton but I don't imagine Burnley to be such a pushover team for them, they will have to score at least twice imo to win. Everton had really hard away schedule playing last 4 games against 4 top teams...if we exclude top teams, Everton on road played twice 2:2 against Bournemouth and Wolves. Watford - Chelsea BTTS Chelsea have scored at least a goal in all of their away games this season except against West Ham and I don't find any reason it would change against Watford. Chelsea will be determined to collect points since they unexpectedly lost in their last game. True Chelsea is often solid in defense but I can imagine Watford to score here since their recent shape is very good. At home they scored against Man City, Tottenham and Man Utd but couldn't score against Liverpool but even Wolves didn't score against them while scoring twice against Chelsea. And Watford won against Wolves and also almost got away with a win at Everton, so they are surely very competitive team in recent weeks. I don't see Chelsea having an easy game here and imo they will also need to score at least two goals to win the game. In the last two seasons we could see BTTS when these two meet. Tottenham - Bournemouth TOTTENHAM -1.5 Tottenham is in great shape in last few games all after they managed to pass the group stage in CL. Not sure but I think they are the first to get away with a win at Everton this season and they did it with style. They obviously can score. On other side is Bournemouth the team I go against in last few weeks, they are imo poor even though they collected another win at home in last round. As I said if Huddersfield had any better scoring skills they would have won the game against Bournemouth. Bournemouth is nothing special in offense and I see lots of vulnerabilities in defense which Spurs should exploit in this game. Man Utd - Huddersfield MAN UTD -1.5 Not much to say here, if Man Utd will play like they did in last game than this is comfortable win considering they will meet the worst offense of the league. So only two goals will be enough. True the guests defended decently against Everton and Arsenal but with Man Utd determination it should go through. I just hope they didn't have a flash moment in last round and they will get back to old ways winning by 1:0 or something. GL...and Merry Christmass to y'all!!!
  7. Slaven Belupo - Rijeka AWAY WIN @1.8 7/10 I don't really like to bet on Croatian league but this bet is obvious. Slaven Belupo is without a win in last 6 rounds while Rijeka is just opposite, they are on a 7 wins run and it were not wins against weak opponents but top Croatian sides like Dinamo Zagreb, Lokomotiva Zagreb twice, Osijek and others...it is all Champions league/Europa league participants or contenders. Rijeka obviously has appetites for the title and with a win they would be just 6 points behind Dinamo Zagreb. I doubt they will be champions this year with coach Bjelica in charge of Dinamo who simply knows how to dose and mix players for each game just enough to win it. It is true they lost to Rijeka but they had more chances in that game so it might be football luck on Rijeka side. Slaven Belupo is for sure not a bad side, they are competitive with all teams but the shape of Rijeka and slightly more quality in their team should point out on the away win as the only logical bet in this game. In last game against Lokomotiva, Brazilian Heber scored twice and in game against Osijek, Croatian Čolak scored twice...so Rijeka surely has men to play with and I have to mention that Osijek was pretty equal to Glasgow Rangers in their quallyfications for EL and in Rijeka case they lost to Sarpsborg 08 which was pretty decent in EL. So since Slaven Belupo is in the middle of the Croatian league standings the quality difference is obvious and this is a must take bet at decent odds. I see 1:2 result in this game.
  8. Borussia Dortmund - Werder Bremen BTTS&OVER 2.5 @1.95 7/10 Yes, Dortmund played 0:0 with Club Brugge and 0:2 at Monaco. The truth is Club Brugge also played 0:0 against Atletico Madrid and Monaco is poor this season and didn't have interest in that game. In this game I see both teams pushing forward, at first place Dortmund going for the title, but Werder is nasty and agressive and they will not give up without shots fired no matter who is their opponent. They lost 1:2 against Bayern and even though Dormtund is first I rate them to be similar with Bayern. Dortmund rested Reus and Sancho against Monaco probably for this game but they also have Pulisic, Alcacer etc. imo if Leverkusen scored 6 goals against Werder and M'Gladbach 3 goals then Dortmund surely can score two goals. And as I said Werder is very agressive and for example in the game against M'Gladbach even though they lost they had more chances. This season playing at home Dortmund didn't concede a goal only against Nurnberg and Freibrug while Augsburg scored 3, Frankfurt 1, Leipzig 1, Hertha 2 and Bayern 2. After two clean sheets for Dortmund it is time for Werder who managed to score in it's all away games this season. In last 4 season at Westfalen Arena there was BTTS&OVER 2.5 and in last game Werder even went away with a win. I see 3:1 in this game. Hoffenheim - M'Gladbach BTTS&OVER 2.5 @1.6 7/10 Well this is obvious isn't it? Both attacking teams with huge offensive potential with huge desire for 3 points. Hoffenheim to climb up to the European spots and M'Gladbach to keep their second position or even attack Borussia Dortmund if their appetites are big enough. In Hoffenheim games BTTS is inevitable but I just hope it doesn't end in a 1:1 draw since the odd is poor. Over 2.5 is only @1.35 and BTTS is at the same price, so only one goal more to double the price I had to take it. In this game I expect tons of counter attacks, going back and forth across the field, just like it was in Hoffenheim-Shaktar game and the result should be similar if everything goes as expected. M'Gladbach could not score against Leipzig even though they have 3-4 goals a game in them but Leipzig has somewhat better defense and game control than Hoffenheim. The goal will come in this game and the other side will have to push forward. I just hope M'Gladbach for some reason scores the first goal and decides to protect it. I see 3:3 in this game so if you like it OVER 3.5 is @1.85 what is also poor but it is a huge probability and bookies know it. I rather take lower odds on at least three goals, I can hardly imagine one team will have 3:0 result in this matchup. BTW something is fishy in Stuttgart - Hertha game because Hertha WIN seems obvious and those odds don't make sense. They know something I don't so I will avoid it. And I think Dusseldorf might take all three points against Freiburg, they have goals in them and they need points. Freiburg seems to play better against top teams.
  9. None of the Saturday games seem appealing to me so I will probably not bet but Atletico Madrid should take a win, maybe even with a few goals difference like in last round against Alaves, Valladolid seems like they will be playing open football and Atletico might punish it although Valladolid rarely loses with two goals difference but they did in their last home game against Leganes. In the past meetings it was also this kind of scenario. Also I think Valencia will not lose at least if they will play like they did against Sevilla, sure Eibar is dangerous especially considering Real Madrid lost there 3:0 but so did they lose the same way in CL to CSKA. Valencia really needs points and they will be very determined and that is what is important in sports and their defense is not bad so 1:2 could be enough.
  10. I was also on Celta...it ruined my parlay...Leganes was so lousy with their defending...otherwise it would be 4:1 for Celta.
  11. Yap and Wolves -1.5 as I suggested in previous round is @3.5 and imo it is very possible.... Wolves are good on counters, that is why they are probably decent against top teams and in this game both teams need points since after that Wolves meet Liverpool and Bournemouth will go to Chelsea.
  12. Wolves - Bournemouth HOME WIN @2.0 8/10 Few weeks ago I had a bet that Bournemouth - Huddersfield will be a home win and I was nothing more than lucky. In the last round I suggested that Bournemouth - Liverpool game will end with Liverpool -1.5 and I was 10/10 on that game. Reason is that Huddersfield was all over Bournemouth and that made me realize they are in a poor form. I also said I am going in next few rounds against Bournemouth and @2.0 it is very generous from bookies, I would have expected odds like Watford has @1.65. I think the game will end 2:0 for Wolves. I have not seen Wolves much except some moments from their game against Arsenal which ended 1:1, they seem pretty fine to bet on against weak opponent. If Bournemouth didn't win against Huddersfield(what was more than likely) then they would be on 6 games streak without a win, this way they are 1-0-5 while Wolves picked up two wins against decent opponents and I believe the winning streak will go on. They would also go up in the standings above Everton and Bournemouth. I also think Huddersfield - Newcastle will be BTTS @2.1... Huddersfield seemed just fine to me they just can't finish well enough but they need to score if they have any plans to go up on the standings and Newcastle might be good opponent since Benitez will surely want all three points from this game. Huddersfield was pretty equal with West Ham at home and I believe Newcastle is similar team even though they lost to them 0:3...Newcastle conceded a goal in last 5 games while Huddersfield scored in last 3 home games...they are "waking up"
  13. My parlay for EL today... Akhisar - Standard Liege AKHISAR DNB @3.2 7/10 Who watched the last game between Akhisar and Fenerbahce will surely know why I am taking this bet. Akhisar won that game 3:0 and believe me when I say that Fenerbahce is not playing that bad at all in terms of offense. On other side is Standard who drew a game against St.Trudiens(offensive side) and lost before that 3:0 to Club Brugge without a shot fired, they were impotent, invisible or whatever you wanna call it(I had BTTS in that game)...Standard has still chances to progress the group but they need a win here and hope for Sevilla not to win. This will all fit just perfectly to Akhisar(what an exotic name, right?:)...it will be just like the game against Fenerbahce who needed points badly since they are in relegation zone. I expect the home team to win but not lose for sure. Why would they finish the competition without points and help Standard?? The odds are great!!! Rapid Vienna - Glasgow Rangers RANGERS DNB @2.0 5/10 Rapid won both games against Spartak Moscow so they only need a point from this game. All group phase Rangers games when they were on the road were having lots of goals but when they were qualifying for EL there were not many goals. At UFA it was 1:1, at Maribor it was 0:0 and at Osijek it was 0:1. I think Gerrard will turn back to this approach, after all it is what is recognizable for Rangers playing in Europe, rather than risking an open game. Both teams are having problems scoring lately in their domestic competitions. Also Rapid lost all games against teams from top of the standings in their league(Austria Vienna, LASK Linz and St.Polten) and all without a goal scored. And all their home EL games were UNDER 2.5. Since Rapid needs only a point it is always in such games that somehow either they end a draw or the other side gets what they want(Rangers). I believe that Gerrards side will get what they want in a low scoring game. Everything points out for an UNDER 2.5 so why I will not bet UNDER...it is because if Rapid somehow scores Rangers will need two goals and something tells me they will win it so I am going for Rangers DNB. Lower confidence since Rangers didn't collect points in domestic competition when needed and lost the leading position to Celtic...will they lose what they want on both fields?! Villareal - Spartak Moscow VILLAREAL OVER 1.5 goals (Home team) @1.55 7/10 Even though Villareal is at the bottom of the Primera standings I really dig this team and believe they will climb up. They have goals in them, they could have scored two goals at least against Barcelona but both teams were for some reason not interested in that game. After that they won in Copa Del Rey against Almeria 8:0...to score 8 goals surely means something even though it is a second league team(which few seasons ago was in the first division). Anyway in their last home game they lost 2:3 to Celta Vigo. They were losing 0:3 and in few minutes managed to score 2 goals which was also my bet in that game. Another reason is that Villareal managed to beat Betis 2:1 and Betis is known for solid defense in most of their games. On other hand Spartak games always have goals, they concede a goal in almost every match. They lost at Vienna 2:0 and it is most likely result I see in this game, but it could be 2:1 or 2:2 since they need a win. Villareal is ok with a draw in this game but I believe they will seal the deal with two goals. If they managed to score 3 goals in Moscow I expect at least two at home. Also Spanish teams are very motivated for this competition. Genk - Sarpsborg 08 BTTS @1.85 6/10 Genk only needs a point from this game to qualify but with a win they would surely be first so I expect them to go for a win and score a goal. Genk scored a goal in all of their home games this season. Out of 15 home games there were BTTS in 9 of them. Besiktas scored there and Sarpsborg 08 by performance is similar to Besiktas. Sarpsborg 08 created more chances in Istanbul than home team and they won against Genk 3:1 at home. If Sarpsborg wins with two goals difference here then Genk would probably be out of the competition. I expect from Norvegian team to attack and eventually score a goal here, after all they play attacking football and it is their only chance here. Genk defense is not that solid lately. Sarpsborg scored a goal in all of their away EL games. Over 2.5 is only @1.55 but I expect a result 2:1 or 3:1 in this game. Besiktas - Malmo HOME WIN @1.6 8/10 The thing is that Besiktas wins this kind of games when they need it even when they do not perform well. For example in Norway they were 2:0 down what meant they would be probably out of the competition and they turned it around to FT 2:3 in one halftime. I had Besiktas DNB for that game. Besiktas needs to win this because if Sarpsborg wins at Genk they would all be with the same number of points(8) and Besiktas would be out because of a goal difference. Malmo in away games in EL was pretty bad in most of their games but one win over Midtjyland stands out a bit, I think Danish team is playing nicely. They drew at Sarpsborg out of few chances and lost at Genk again with not many chances created. Even though Besiktas drew their last game it was 0:0 and they won over CL team Galatasaray at home 1:0. So they can win against good teams and their defense seems good in last games. I expect a low scoring nerve wrecking late goal win for Besiktas. After all Besiktas played CL last season and it is expected from them to participate in European competition and I rate Turkish championship more competitive than Swedish. Babel is out but there is Quaresma who will grind it out with assist or a goal Sevilla - Krasnodar OVER 2.5 @1.5 7/10 Sevilla is at the very top of the Primera and this season they lost at home only to Getafe and drew one game with Villareal at 0:0. But the important thing is that they perform very well at home in important games. They won all games in EL by huge results 5:1 against Standard, 6:0 against Akhisar, 3:0 against Sigma and one 1:0 against Zalgiris at the start of the season but they had 27(10) chances in that game. They also beat Real Madrid by 3:0. This game is important because if they win they will be first in the group and if they draw they have to hope that Standard will not win their game, so basically they need to win...ALL IN! ON other side is Krasnodar who plays nice attacking football this season and they scored a goal in all of their away games this season. I am sure they will play the same way here. They scored at Zenit St.Petersburg and they won against CL team CSKA Moscow. So Krasnodar is surely a serious task for Andalucians. BTTS&Over 2.5 seems tempting at @2.1 but Sevilla game against Real Madrid is a proof it could go wrong as it is all about how much they will score. This competition is really important to Sevilla and they won it few times already so it is expected from them to go further with a style, with first position. I expect something like 3:1 in this game. I just hope it does not end 1:0 or if both Standard and Sevilla draw their games. Rennes - Astana HOME WIN @1.6 5/10 Risky bet. Rennes needs to win to go through while Astana is fine with a draw. In this group all teams seem similar and this could be a pure gamble. All though Rennes was more dangerous in their game against Dynamo Kiev they lost it, I expect them again to be dominant and this time to win. They also have two wins in French championship in last games, one of those was against Lyon where Lyon was a huge favorite. This is the reason why I am taking this bet, also Rennes scored against PSG, they won against Bordeaux which played 2:2 against PSG, they score in almost all of their home games etc. On other side Astana drew both away EL games and they are pretty equal in strength to Jablonec so I am expecting a similar result 2:1 or 1:0 for Rennes in this game. Astana also lost to APOEL and Dinamo Zagreb in CL qualifications and they lost their last two away games in domestic championship. I doubt Rennes is much worse. They can score from few chances and do not concede goals(Lyon). Slavia Prague - Zenit St.Petersburg HOME WIN @1.7 8/10 Zenit is first in the group whatever happens while Slavia Prague needs to win to be sure they will go through. In Copenhagen - Bordeaux game everything can happen so I will focus on this game. I believe Home win is a must take here. True they lost 1:0 in St.Petersburg(I have not watched the game) but check out the statistics...Zenit 6(2) vs Slavia 25(11)...if someone watched the game please tell me that it was not Barcelona there rather than team from Prague. It is also pointing out they can not score, but in Czech league they do, and they won against Copenhagen and Bordeaux and in all of those games they created more chances. Since Zenit will not be interested into this game this is a clear bet imo. Also Zenit picked up few losses in a row in Russian league in last couple of rounds. Unlike Rennes game where there is no value at those odds to risk anything even though Rennes win is expected this one is a must take. Olympiakos - AC Milan OLYMPIAKOS DNB @1.85 6/10 Olympiakos does not play great but they are determined and that is what is important. Both teams once played in CL and now they are here in EL. Olympiakos drew their last game away to Xanthi even though it was expected that they will win(I was on Oly:) and in the game before that they beat Panionios but what is worrying is that they also conceded a goal. All in all Olympiakos will be very motivated. The trick here is that Milan can lose but not with two goals difference and as I was saying in my Rapid - Rangers preview in this kind of games most of the times it ends up just on that line between win or lose scenario. Since Olympiakos is at home and Milan is not a great traveler and they also come from a scoreless draw against Torino I think it is worth a shot, Oly could just do it enough for the bet to go through but not succeed in passing the group phase. Olympiakos played an equal game against Betis at home and lost by only one goal in Spain. And Betis won in Italy while drew at home to Milan so Betis and Milan might be similar in strength. Since Olympiakos had their chances against Betis at home I will go against very popular AC Milan in this one. Leipzig - Rosenborg HOME WIN @1.15 Combined odds for this parlay is @255...I once won @244 so this would be my new record Anyway...this are my suggestions... GL...y'all!
  14. I would be cautious with Valencia - Man Utd game UNDER 2.5... I know it looks obvious at first sight because of Mourinho and Valencia record this season but I have watched Valencia - Sevilla game and Valencia should have won the game 2:1 imo. They were determined to win but just could't finish well. Considering Man Utd last few games 2:2 at Southhampton and 4:1 against Fulham which didn't let other big teams to score more than 2 goals. This game could also be a goal festival if both sides decide to win...Valencia for the prestige or training or whatever and Man Utd if decides to go for the first spot in the group! For Young Boys - Juventus...something tells me Swiss team will score in that game, they have goals in them and Juventus is having 5 clean sheets in a row, it must stop sometime. Juventus relaxed and Young Boys determined to prove something in front of their fans. I watched Fiorentina - Juventus game and Fiore had many chances to score...I think they should get one goal from Young Boys. Ajax - Bayern is obvious and easiest bet today imo... we will see attacking football from both teams and BTTS&Over 2.5 is a good bet.... GL y'all!!
  15. Reus, Sancho, Witsel and Delaney out for Dortmund...hm...it makes me a bit worried but I am still on Dortmund...I doubt they will not go for a win...even 0:1 is enough for them, they got much more to play than Monaco, first spot in the group