allthethings

Fernandes so far proving me wrong, and Stevie right.

LASK 4.80 If you take Man Utd in this one, on away with no spectators and no attack, you're basically taking a team because of the crest. The Linz side are good, fit, on as good a run of form as United, highly motivated, and home. What's more, you get 4/1 for a home side to win a first leg match when United don't have to be concerned if they lose narrowly, with the second leg at home.

Have to share this little nugget. My database in the FA Cup goes back to 2009, and it's a small sample, but the results in the 8th-finals are surprising. Big dogs away get outright wins at a high rate when they're in the up-to-5.00 range (no matches fit this year), and big home dogs are 0-7-15 (32% draws). The surprising thing is it's the home dogs of greater than 8.00 that are most responsible. Those huge dogs are 0-5-5. Most recent was Rochdale taking Spurs to a replay in 2018 as dogs of 14.74. The year before, Huddersfield (10.80) drew 0-0 with Man City. Oldham, Orient, Stevenage got draws home to Everton, Arsenal, Spurs in 2013-2011 as dogs of around 9.00. Anyway, Sheffield Wednesday home to Man City are currently at 14.00, and with draw at 7.05 you might consider it.

Looking at draws in Sunderland, Oxford and Portsmouth, but it will be a last-minute decision.

Ebbsfleet 4.31 Somehow getting crushed by the top side has led to these odds, I guess, and I can't say I understand it These two sides are not as far apart as the odds would suggest, and Fleet's h2h with Maidenhead is dead even, home or away.

Hamilton 4.61 Cambridge 4.33 Port Vale 4.45

Cardiff-Reading X @ 3.50

Unfortunate result, what with the 24 shots/2 on goal or whatever it was. For the future, though, allow me to suggest an alternative to your DNB. You said you were inclined to take Northampton to win. Personally, if I thought that, I would take them to win at 3.62: 10e wins you 26e. Or, you could take the draw at 3.52: 10e wins you 25e. When I first started betting on large underdogs, I split bets: half a unit on each, or two-third/one-third on whichever I was more keen on. I discovered pretty quickly that there was no money in it, long term. You end up losing more in 5e increments than you gain in 12e increments, if you get what I'm saying. However, you basically need only to guess right one of every three or four times to show a profit in the long run. When you guess right at 3/1 or 4/1 it covers a multitude of sins (losses). It is true that your DNB cost you nothing in this case. Think of it another way: You believed Derby were ripe for the taking, and if you were right that they wouldn't win, your 10e would win 18e, or zero. I think it's better to take one or the other...this is the line of thinking that started me creating spreadsheets to find out what leagues, and what circumstances, throw up underdog wins or draws. When you find a marked tendency toward one or the other result, that's where I believe you have an edge.

Man Utd-Wolves X @ 3.73 This has been a good matchup for Wolves since returning to the Prem, and I don't see any reason why returning to Old Trafford means the home side should be favorites to this extent. Man U were 2.67 at Wolves in the match away, now they're 1.79?

Won with Dorking, lost with Kingstonian...sadly, two losses in League One made it a small profit today.

MK Dons X 4.10, Bolton X 4.45

The FA Trophy replays I'm watching are Concord, Kingstonian and Dorking. If the home sides are listed at 2.00 or below and the away dogs are listed at under 3.99, I'll be on the dogs outright.

Royston W, Halifax W, Halesowen X + 4 losses = plus 4.3

A little FA Trophy action Farsley 3.47, Southport 4.20, Salisbury 3.90, Royston 3.50, Halifax 3.95, Dag&Red 3.90, Halesowen X 3.95

I think Man U are a must-take at these odds...up to 5.38. The rest of the card...Billericay 3.70, Tranmere 5.25, Walsall 3.60