allthethings

My database goes back to 2009. With regard to Apollon about to win at 8.65 and BATE at 6.80, here is the final-round tally for all away dogs priced above 5.99: 8-16-50 (11%wins, 22% draws) After this first slate of games, the numbers are 10-16-54 (13% wins, 20% draws) Also after the first slate today, with Jablonec and Malmo wins, away dogs under 5.99 are at an even 45% wins.

Geez, I didn't take Malmo because they were priced up well over 5.00, but the price dropped late (so late I didn't see it) and look at them now, playing with a man advantage and 25 minutes from taking Besiktas' place in the KOs. AEK Larnaca and Zurich in the late games.

They don't need anything out of this match if Astana don't win at Rennes.

Correct, but mostly for smaller underdogs in the range of up to 4.99. Accordingly, I'm on Jablonec at 4.55 among the early kickoffs.

I'll have a go at the X in Sunderland-Walsall, currently 3.85. This is a standard FAC Replay strategy for this round.

They didn't. Oldham match is off, Walsall odds plunged, and only Southend remains. Average dropped from 5.30 to 3.73. I see it at 4.14 so am taking it now.

Oldham, Walsall, Southend today, assuming the odds hold.

1-4, -1 unit. Macclesfield was pretty dominant but couldn't get a second goal, while Lincoln got significantly outshot but Stanley couldn't outscore them in regulation. In any case, my five big dogs went 1-2-2.

Don't know how I didn't realize that Peterborough did the same. I've taken Exeter live at 4.00, 15 minutes in.

Bury 4.04, Lincoln 4.00 Mansfield drifted across the line to 2.15 for the past day or so, but Bury is a play again. I need to win one of these four in regulation to either break even in the case of Lincoln winning, or profit if any of the other three do.

The numbers I collected and tallied go back to 2005. Six matches of League One or Two sides as big dogs against academies: 3-1-2 (50% underdog wins). Range of 4.00-4.99, playing away, all matches 35-19-71 (28%), 14-1-17(44%) in this round. Again, almost all of these latter matches don't involve academy sides. So, away wins by big underdogs are marked, but I will admit this is something new this season. Both academies have played really well, and in AFC Wimbledon and Macclesfield you're looking at two really dire sides that are propping up their tables. Do they want to play in this competition, or do they want to avoid relegation? It doesn't have to be mutually exclusive, but anyway there's a reason the prices are so high.

AFC Wimbledon 5.16, Macclesfield 4.88 Will wait an hour but I'll be on Lincoln, too, last year's Cup winner.

Not sure yet where the odds will wind up, but I can promise you I will hammer any dog away of up to 5.99, and any home dog up to 3.99. We're in new territory here, with two academy sides appearing as large favorites at home against AFC Wimbledon and Macclesfield. In the two years since academies began contesting this Cup, we had two round of 16 matches pitting two academies, and one match where the academy side got trounced away as a dog. This season these sides were much improved in group play, so who knows whether I should tread here. But the broader contours of this competition saw many, many upsets in the first two KO rounds (group play obliterated the round of 32, damn it, a former gold mine), and until they prove me wrong I'll be opposing them.

Stockport 4.96, Scnuthorpe 4.29 History of outright wins by underdogs in this round and in this range (up to 4.99 away), and these are the only two to fit the bill this year.

Relax, was just having a little fun.