allthethings

The splitting of the UEL into UEL and UECL has kind of messed up my database, and it may be a few years before I have a read on this third level of European comp. Having said that, I have some leans... If AZ stay at 2.00 and below, I'll have a go with Gil Vicente to win at home after they lost the first leg by 4 goals. I'll for sure be on MOL Fehervar and Wolfsberger to win outright. Sides like this, that win the first leg narrowly as a big dog away, and are now big dogs at home, are often viewed as having been lucky rather than a better club than expected. The market also always says, "They only need a draw," overvaluing that outcome, when the fact is they are as likely to come out on the front foot as cower in front of the likes of Koln and Molde. They will play their asses off in front of the home crowd. Keep in mind that I am posting this, so I expect these to lose in the worst possible way.

Apollon and especially Pyunik are the livest dogs on the board at prices around 7.00. Sherif T at 1.50 for anything is kind of nuts. Shamrock are a good draw shout, down by 4 goals and at home in the second leg comes up draws way more often than outright wins.

As if to prove my point, I had Nottingham to win today at 3/1, but did not post it. Draw your own conclusions.

I swear to god, posting here is the kiss of death. Nice call, Stevie.

Wasn't sure I was going to take this, but as the odds have risen Brentford-Man U are now a play on the draw @ 3.85. Premier League matches featuring a home dog at this range of odds in my database draw about 27% of the time, but against Man Utd these dogs have drawn 36% of the times, through bad and good years.

Zaha in the starting XI, so is Ramsdale; Tomiyasu is out. Aside from that...

This time of year, mid-February through the end of March, these midweek large dogs tend toward draws. Had my eye on Derby to nick a draw, but sadly my book know the trend also, and draw is only at 3.25.

They can't.

Gills 4.60, Solihull 4.50, Oldham 4.30 System bet here in the round of 128.

I took them after the price started dropping. 4.70

What on earth is the story with Cheltenham? Normally I'm all over a home dog against an academy side, but the odds have gone from 2.04 (opening) to 2.90 earlier today to 5.25 and continuing to skyrocket. Covid?

That looked pretty good for about 11 minutes.

In the end I took Wales @ 4.65. Simply a value bet, as I agree the sides are closer to even than the odds would suggest, and I hated the 3.10 on offer for the X at my book.

It's a decent shout, but over the past 20 years those draws have come later in the bracket, in the semis. It's putting me off the draw in the Wales match, actually, even though you'd expect Wales to do such a thing, as they did against the Swiss. And in fact, the books have priced it that way: 4.81 for the Wales win in 90, 3.22 for the draw. I might be inclined to play on the win for that reason, but haven't pulled the trigger yet. Wales's defense is good and, really, the Danes aren't that great without Eriksen. A Wales win wouldn't shock too terribly.

Going contrarian...on Russia at 5.45. Denmark look better, Russia travel poorly, Russia just need a draw...I know all that. I also know that the third group game is the Euros' banana peel, and these two sides are not so different to justify these kinds of odds.