allthethings

Bolton-Preston NE X @ 3.57 February football.

Oldham-Doncaster X 3.78 Brighton-West Brom X 3.90

Home dogs in the North and South are hitting at about 24% so far this season, lower than the standard 29%, and it's the difference between profit and loss. On them again today...Weston 3.59, York 3.65 and Leamington 3.65.

Noice!

I think you'd have to be a bit mad to put money on this match, to be honest. With a 9-0 first leg in the books, you just have no idea who shows up on either side. In my strategy, nothing under 3.50 or so is ever worth taking, on any match. In this kind of match, City *might* turn up and cover a handicap, but is it really worth the risk at even money? I'd be far more inclined to take the home side at 16.00...it's as probable as any other result, and for a great profit. To be clear, I'm not taking anything here. I'm saying that under these crazy circumstances, you can't honestly say that any punt is more than 50-50 Taking a bet at 2.00 is a coin flip. Using my logic, if it's really a coin flip, go for the better odds.

Fulham-Spurs X at 3.78 Spurs' away results mean little here...away results with a full squad I mean. And Fulham haven't been so bad at home, not in the way they've been overmatched away. With a less explosive away side and a home side that are likely to dig in, I think if Fulham get a result it will be a draw.

After I posted, Halifax odds jumped to around 4.60, so I'm on the draw as planned, at 3.70.

Just can't seem to get Halifax right. Had them in November to win at Morecambe in the FA Cup...they drew 0-0 to force a replay...and had them in the league to win at Gateshead during Christmas week, but they could only get a 1-1 draw. In between, I had them to draw away at Barrow in the FA Trophy, but they get an 88' goal to win 1-2. I was all set to take draw in today's replay at Solihull, but with the odds now having dropped below 4.00, the proper play is outright win. I will be waiting until close to kick to decide which of these I'll take.

FA Trophy - Telford 3.92, Dag&Red 5.03 Nothing to say; trends in the round of 16 say these have a decent shot at getting a result.

Following the trend of outright wins in Ligue 2 after the Christmas break, I'm going to back Troyes to uncharacteristically win away to Brestois. The 4.86 seems worth the risk to me.

FA Trophy Oxford City 4.09 EFL Trophy Portsmouth 3.86

After the last-play PK by Portsmouth robbed me of my second draw, I'm back with two more: Millwall-Hull X 3.37 and Preston-Doncaster X 3.56.

Could have done without the Gills' winning goal. I did also take Blackburn and Portsmouth to get draws at about 3.45 each. See Norwich have had one sent off early...

Peterborough 6.32, Oxford Utd 6.25, Gillingham-Cardiff X 3.95

Wrexham-Dover X 3.60, Solihull-Eastleigh X 3.86, Braintree 3.99