allthethings

Zaha in the starting XI, so is Ramsdale; Tomiyasu is out. Aside from that...

This time of year, mid-February through the end of March, these midweek large dogs tend toward draws. Had my eye on Derby to nick a draw, but sadly my book know the trend also, and draw is only at 3.25.

They can't.

Gills 4.60, Solihull 4.50, Oldham 4.30 System bet here in the round of 128.

I took them after the price started dropping. 4.70

What on earth is the story with Cheltenham? Normally I'm all over a home dog against an academy side, but the odds have gone from 2.04 (opening) to 2.90 earlier today to 5.25 and continuing to skyrocket. Covid?

That looked pretty good for about 11 minutes.

In the end I took Wales @ 4.65. Simply a value bet, as I agree the sides are closer to even than the odds would suggest, and I hated the 3.10 on offer for the X at my book.

It's a decent shout, but over the past 20 years those draws have come later in the bracket, in the semis. It's putting me off the draw in the Wales match, actually, even though you'd expect Wales to do such a thing, as they did against the Swiss. And in fact, the books have priced it that way: 4.81 for the Wales win in 90, 3.22 for the draw. I might be inclined to play on the win for that reason, but haven't pulled the trigger yet. Wales's defense is good and, really, the Danes aren't that great without Eriksen. A Wales win wouldn't shock too terribly.

Going contrarian...on Russia at 5.45. Denmark look better, Russia travel poorly, Russia just need a draw...I know all that. I also know that the third group game is the Euros' banana peel, and these two sides are not so different to justify these kinds of odds.

I have the two big home dogs as well, though with lower odds of 4.50 and 3.80. But I'm also watching three away dogs in the 3.30 (Notts Co) to 3.70 (Maidenhead and Wealdstone) range. It's not a typical season, but in typical seasons these types of away dogs do very well during the last round, 7-7-6 by my count over the past decade. Only Bromley have anything to play for (against County), but that doesn't seem to matter this time of year, as a 9th or would-be 7th place side are as likely to bottle it under pressure as win. If any of these matches remain in that range by kickoff, I'll be on the dogs at best odds.

I was on the draw in the recent Leeds-ManU match and it finished 0-0. Unposted: It is a fact that when I post, I lose. Anyway, this is the sweet spot for ManU draws going back the dozen years I've been keeping track, 40% draws. This season they're 9-7-0 away, drawing against the top sides but also some of the likes of Palace and West Brom. There's undefeated and then there's winning roughly half your away matches. 3.97 is a good price, too.

Bristol City are currently 5.09 home to Brentford, who go into the playoff as the top seed no matter what. One wonders why anyone would put a farthing on the Bees.

Gonna take a flyer at St. Johnstone home to Rangers today at 4.50. They play again in the FA Cup quarterfinal Saturday, and so this particular match is the place to take it easier, as it is meaningless to Rangers. Historically home dogs in the Championship bracket do well.

Curious whether anyone is watching Wealdstone-Woking (I can't get it where I am). It doesn't seem like Woking had a dominant first half statistically anyway, so I'm wondering why just prior to the half Wealdstone were +425 to win, Woking -130.