allthethings

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allthethings last won the day on August 13 2016

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About allthethings

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 12/12/61
  1. FA Cup Predictions > Dec 12th - 14th

    Three units on the Wigan over, 1 on the FGA draw.
  2. FA Cup Predictions > Dec 12th - 14th

    X at 4.25. I’ll give it a shot.
  3. FA Cup Predictions > Dec 12th - 14th

    FGA are a good draw candidate, but not if the odds widen. The odds reflect their league status, but as they showed against Swindon last week, they shouldn’t be 4/1 against, and draw is way more typical as a result in a replay than outright win.
  4. FA Cup Predictions > Dec 12th - 14th

    Wigan-Fylde over 3 goals, 1.94 Replays tend to get out of hand when the big dog of more than 11.00 is on away...11 have finished over 3, 3 have had exactly 3, 3 have gone under 3 going back to 2009. Round 64 matches as a subset are 5-1-0, Round 128 2-1-0. In fact, it’s in the lower rounds pitting Premier and Championship sides that have been held on away that often come back in the replay at home and grind out a result (4-1-3). i don’t have an explanation, I just cash them.
  5. Eredivisie Predictions > Dec 8th - 10th

    Happy to go with PSV at Ajax today, odds 4.14. Only one loss this season through 14 rounds, regularly win in Amsterdam, and Ajax seems weaker than last season AND they have some missings today. I suppose the bookmakers have their reasons, but to me this is a must-take.
  6. Burton (3.49), Morecambe (3.62), Northampton (3.81) are the underdogs I like to nick a draw, and I've taken Yeovil to win outright at 4.03.
  7. Non-League Predictions > Dec 9th

    Hungerford 4.21, Concord 3.71 Very underappreciated how frequently home underdogs in the lower range get wins at this level...though there have been a lot more draws this year than I'm used to seeing.
  8. EFL Trophy Predictions > Dec 5th & 6th

    Too bad Shrews suddenly became odds on, because it caused me to take Port Vale three minutes before kickoff. However: Port Vale -1 unit, Chesterfield-1 unit, FGA +3.6 units. Winning day.
  9. EFL Trophy Predictions > Dec 5th & 6th

    Chesterfield odds drop 4.5 to 3.5 FGA rise from 3.5 to 4.6 Port Vale rise from 3.3 to 3.8
  10. EFL Trophy Predictions > Dec 5th & 6th

    It is not a tough competition to crack. You just have to count. The competition changed format last year, but many of the same issues presented. There are still many League One and Two sides that take the competition seriously, and many that do not; added to that, now, we've got academy sides that have to adhere to different rules (maximum numbers vs minimum numbers, with regard to who must be named to a side). Another constant is that oddsmakers automatically install favorites based on league position, even though league position doesn't mean a hell of a lot when you have no idea what sort of 11s will be out there. And many times, you see the odds shrink on favorites as bettors pile on, usually because the underdog's manager says something like, "Our first priority is the league." The thing that has remained constant is an extraordinary number of underdogs win in regulation. Last season I won 10 units in this round...the underdogs (all on away) went 4-3-2, and I was on most of them. Avoiding academy sides away (they haven't surprised, at least so far), that means I will be on Chesterfield and FGA today. I will wait to see how the odds move.
  11. Championship Predictions > Nov 28th - Dec 4th

    Hull X 3.89, QPR X 3.62...terrific odds for a much more likely result than the odds would suggest, two low-scoring and decent defending sides playing two midtable sides who both draw a lot of matches.
  12. FA Cup Predictions > Dec 1st - 4th

    Yeovil @ 5.26 is a must-take for me. They're not playing Real Madrid ffs, and this round throws up many surprises year after year.
  13. Will take the draw at 3.74, priced not far from the win odds, but three times more likely.
  14. Rangers are now 2-2-2 as a huge home favorite...Hamilton and Hibs won there, Hearts and Kilmarnock drew. Interestingly, they're 4-1-1 as a big away favorite.