allthethings

Cardiff are an outright play for me, as are Burnley tomorrow, and Newcastle as well, though it pains me to say it.

This is all very silly. Man U are obviously the better side. But the arguments... Puel came to Leicester last October, after they'd lost at Man U in the summer, and under Puel, Leicester got a 2-2 draw at home against Utd. I don't see this as categorical evidence that Mourinho "knows how to handle" him. Man U played big teams in the preseason. They always do. A year ago they played Man City, Real Madrid and Barca in the ICC. So? There is no lack of confidence at Utd after the season they wrapped up in May. Leicester played inexperienced teams in the preseason a year ago: Luton, Burton Albion, Milton Keynes Dons. So? Man Utd are the better side. By the way, do you know how favorites have fared in the first week of the Premier season in the 10 years I've been tracking this? Dogs of up to 7.99 away have gone 9-6-11...that breaks down to 6-3-7 for away dogs of up to 4.99, 3-3-4 for dogs of 5.00 to 7.99. Week 1 is a minefield. Man Utd own the head-to-head, 4-3-0 in their last seven PL matches. If you're going to take the dog, draw probably makes the most sense. It's currently priced at 4.00, which offers a lot of value.

Niort 4.94 look wildly overpriced to me, and worth a nibble. They're away to Grenoble...so?

I say this every year, but the home dogs of up to 3.99 are a great N/S wager. Bradford PA were a winner at 3.51 in week 1, and Hungerford are overpriced here today.

Updated...5-8-6 for the away dogs now (10 seasons), with the points won by Queen's Park and Elgin today.

Scotland League 2 fact...week 1 is a minefield for home sides priced at under 2.00. All away dogs are 5-6-4 in the first week, and this is the rare season where all of the matches feature a fave of under 2.00, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a few surprises.

Seems no one cares about this but me, and I care a lot that I'm 0-6 here. Win it back Saturday plays: Alloa 4.19 X, Cove 3.98 X, Stirling 4.27 X God help me, Spartans to win outright @ 4.43 Arbroath - Elgin City 24 1.32 5.15 7.30 21.07.2018 09:00 Dundee Utd - Alloa 24 1.51 4.13 5.39 21.07.2018 09:00 Montrose - St Johnstone 24 7.54 5.06 1.31 21.07.2018 09:00 Cowdenbeath - Cove Rangers 23 1.86 3.82 3.48 21.07.2018 09:00 Raith - Hearts 24 8.32 4.99 1.30 21.07.2018 09:00 Peterhead - Stirling 24 1.53 4.18 5.17 21.07.2018 09:00 Albion Rovers - Ayr 24 15.10 7.60 1.12 21.07.2018 09:00 Morton - Stenhousemuir 24 1.38 4.74 6.60 21.07.2018 09:00 Berwick - Airdrieonians 24 4.70 4.27 1.56 21.07.2018 09:00 Livingston - Annan 24 1.21 5.96 10.39 21.07.2018 09:00 Edinburgh City - Queen of South 24 6.92 5.21 1.33 21.07.2018 09:00 Stranraer - Motherwell 21 8.92 5.70 1.25 21.07.2018 09:00 Dumbarton - Kilmarnock 24 7.02 4.57 1.37 21.07.2018 09:00 Queen's Park - Spartans 23 1.60 4.11 4.62 21.07.2018 09:00 East Fife - Forfar Athletic 22 1.87 3.70 3.57 22.07.2018 09:00 Dundee FC - Dunfermline 21 1.77 3.74 3.95 22.07.2018 09:00

Draws today. Was tempted by Albion Rovers outright, but Stenhousemuir have this annoying tendency to either go up 2-0 or down 0-2 and then to end with a 2-2 draw. This is vast experience talking.

13:30Stenhousemuir - Albion Rovers 1.73 3.68 4.12 13:45Alloa - Arbroath 2.09 3.64 2.97 13:45Annan - Berwick 1.92 3.48 3.55 13:45Cowdenbeath - Inverness 8.06 5.38 1.29 13:45Dumbarton - Queen's Park 1.54 4.09 5.15 13:45Dunfermline - Peterhead 1.26 5.52 8.80 13:45Falkirk - Forfar Athletic 1.25 5.69 9.18 13:45Hamilton - Livingston 2.92 3.19 2.31 13:45Montrose - East Fife 2.11 3.44 3.08 13:45Motherwell - Edinburgh City 1.11 8.44 15.49 13:45Partick Thistle - Morton 1.56 3.78 5.53 13:45Queen of South - Clyde 1.36 4.81 6.91 13:45Ross County - Dundee Utd 2.04 3.43 3.27 13:45Stirling - Brechin 2.35 3.36 2.73 13:45St. Mirren - Spartans 1.09 9.15 18.18

0-2 on the weekend, but back at it today. Albion Rovers and Berwick for sure, and Morton and Queens Park, possibly. Back around kickoff.

All good to know, thanks. I was going to say that I thought the one ingredient missing here is the odds. I only have odds for the previous five WCs, and in those five, there was no favorite of under 2.00, as there is today. In the past five WC finals, there have been three draws, one win by the favorite (of 2.06) and one loss by the favorite of 2.35 (Brazil in 98). I say "I was," because all week France has been sitting about 1.95 and Croatia at 4.75, and if anything I expected money to flow to France. However, in the past couple of hours, Croatia has dropped to 4.06 and France is at 2.11. I suspect draw makes the most sense if you're looking for action.

09:00Airdrieonians - Livingston 6.554.551.40 09:00Annan - Hamilton 7.514.951.33 09:00Ayr - Morton 2.373.442.68 09:00Brechin - Peterhead 2.663.362.42 09:00Clyde - Edinburgh City 1.574.044.92 09:00Dundee Utd - Arbroath 1.394.476.94 09:00Falkirk - Montrose 1.374.657.04 09:00Inverness - Cove Rangers 1.127.8614.96 09:00Queen of South - Stranraer 1.305.207.94 09:00Raith - Cowdenbeath 1.206.1411.46 09:00Ross County - Elgin City 1.157.1313.45 09:00Spartans - Dumbarton 4.884.031.58 09:00Stenhousemuir - Partick Thistle 5.284.301.51 09:00Stirling - Dundee FC 8.525.371.27 09:00St Johnstone - East Fife 1.147.2813.91 Had St. Mirren yesterday at 5.25 and they should have won that match outright instead of settling for two points. Today there's some value in outright wins by Spartans at home and Edinburgh City away, just based on tendencies of group play, and secondarily a few draw possibilities (Arbroath, Montrose, Stranraer). Not sure I'll be taking any of the latter, as who really knows which sides are still trying out formations, giving debuts, etc. The Saints looked awfully good yesterday except for not being able to finish.

I’m inclined to go against my instincts and go for goals in the Belgium-France match. Judging by the odds the expectation appears to be that France can contain the Belgian strike force, and WC history is littered with scoreless semis when goals were ‘obvious.’ But I have a hard time imagining a cagey start to this one, and can imagine both sides would be delighted to open the scoring and ratchet the pressure (and force the other wide to come forward in response. Over 2.75 is priced at 2.44 at the moment, but I’m waiting to see what the alternate odds turn out to be for team totals. Right now France is plus money on o1.5, and there’s no line above o1 for Belgium. I’ll do some mulling it over but I think a high score draw is possible in 90. Or I would think that if I hadn’t watched overs in the semis go 3-7 the past five cups.

Eng-Cro is a strange semi, in that neither side seem to be able to consistently function as well as we think they will.England's speed is difficult for anyone to match up with, and yet in virtually every match their pace hasn't settled matters...their scores are coming on individual matchups in the area, leading to a PK, or in the air. Croatia's midfield is their most attractive feature, and they're supposed to be able to dominate in the middle of the pitch, and yet they've disappeared in two KOs after knotting the score 1-1.My read on this match sounds like a bad mashup of my read on previous matches...England's pace will be hard for Croatia to contend with, and Croatia's midfield will dictate the flow of the match. Whatever. What I would say is that Croatia have scraped by in their two KOs, whereas England have been in control of theirs. It took a late strike for Colombia to get it to extra time in the first KO, and Sweden were never in the second. Meanwhile, you look at Croatia's ridiculous number of shots in comparison with the final scores, and you think, how wasteful! If only they had a real finisher on their squad. But it also means they're putting enormous pressure on their opponents, and should one of those 22 shots get by the keeper...;I would say Croatia's defense has allowed many more dangerous situations than has England's, but how many people began this WC confident about England's defense?It is definitely too close of a match to call. Will England score first, and then attempt to score again, rather than let Croatia stay in the match? If Croatia score first, can England equalize from the field?My money will be on the draw. I don't see how you can call this one with any confidence in 90. Or 120.

I've taken my usual draw in this match, but I've also taken o9.5 goals at 1.71. Even with their vaunted defense Brazil have blown past this in all their matches save one match of 9 corners, and Belgium should be able to contribute either way.