allthethings

Seven goals after 70'.

Had a punt live at HT on Bovada...double of Volendam-Almere O1.5 and Helmond-Telstar O2. Pays 3.33. Very good odds for this league, and these are all second-half sides.

At 22', taken Edinburgh City to score over 1.5 goals at 3.40. They're dominating possession at 65%, 2-0 in corners, have had two offsides. Think there's a decent chance they get 2 no matter what else happens.

Aberystwyth home against Caernarfon is a must take for me at 3.56. Yes, the recently promoted away side have done well so far, but the home side are pretty decent at home even though they've taken a step backward to this point this season. Also taking Newtown (3.70) at Bala mainly because my numbers are saying to do it. Skipping Llanelli...that's a home dog I have no interest in backing.

I've taken Edinburgh City to win at 4.95 and +0.5 at 2.20. Linn isn't in the starting XI for Arbroath but the odds are remaining high (4.62 average) because of league position, which I think is dumb.

I was fooled by the presence of a section that said "Scotland." Carry on.

Fascinating first match in the 8th-finals round. Arbroath, which lead League One, host Edinburgh City, which lead League Two. Edinburgh were priced in the 5.50 range up until yesterday, and the price is getting closer to reality, falling steadily into the 4.80 range to this point. Last season, when Arboath were in League Two, Edinburgh City won there twice (Arboath gained a win and draw at Edinburgh City). People ordinarily say about a side in this position, "Well, they're in first place, clearly gaining promotion is their priority." With both sides leading their respective leagues, that goes right out the window. Historically, the League Cup sees a lot of upset wins by big dogs, but in the Challenge Cup that hasn't been the case unless the big dog is an underdog in the 3.5-4.00 range. So I'll be interested to see what the closing odds turn out to be.

In Scotland today, Dundee 4.09 home to Kilmarnock, who are priced as if they were Hearts; Queen's Park 4.11 home to Clyde (pure value), and Brechin away to Airdrie 3.49.

Carlisle to win at Oldham at 4.00 represents a lot of value given that this is League Two, and Carlisle like a lot of League Two sides are better away than at home.

Rapid 4.20, Krasnodar X 3.80 First time in a long time I parlayed some 2HT games and anything I would have done would have won. There were a lot of goals in the 2HT, and all the favorites came roaring back.

By the way, there are many huge away dogs looking to get a result here, which would be quite shocking as something like 90% of the dogs of over 8.00 lose in this round. AEK, Dudelange, Olympiakos, Trnava. Celtic taking something here would be a big upset as well.

In the late games, my only bet is likely to be Rapid Wien to win at around 3.86. Apollon and Krasnodar have both flirted for big dog status, which would make them both draw picks if Marseille or Sevilla drop to below 2.00.

The money did flow the other way, to 6.07, making it a no-play for me. I'm wondering whether Salzburg to score two is a good halftime bet, as they have been dominant. Though Celtic had one pulled back for offside.

In the early matches I'm on Rosenborg-RB Leipzig X @ 4.00. I will be on RB Salzburg-Celtic X @ ridiculously good odds of 4.35 only if money starts to flow in to Celtic. As things stand now (6.01), they fall out of my system.

The odds were strange enough that in the end I was only able to get 3.55 for the draw. And also, late money made the draw in Rotherham a play, too, but I missed it prior to kickoff. I could have taken it at far reduced odds about 20 minutes in, but at the time the match was very unbalanced with Rotherham dominating the stats, so I let it go.