allthethings

Taken two thus far, and am awaiting odds on Truro-Hemel overs. If odds become available on over 3 I may jump on that one too, though I expect o3.25. In the meantime: St Albans-East Thurrock, o3 odds 1.91 double of Boston-Fylde o3 and Harrogate-Brackley o2.5, pays about 3.3

Adding: o3 in Salford- Curzon and Tamworth-Alfreton, odds about even for both.

Once more into this particular breach, with many overs looking good in the N/S. I've taken a double of Harrogate-Halifax o2.5 and Dartford-Hampton o3, at odds about 3.1. Will mull the others over closer to game time.

Maidenhead-Concord, o3 odds 1.87. My runners-up were Halifax-Fylde, but in spite of Fylde's balls-out play, I can see the two-top-teams thing playing out, with few goals there.

I will probably be on Anderlecht to win, FWIW. Home dogs are undervalued in KOs in this competition...I'm sure that Man Utd would approach the return leg the same whether the first match finishes 1-1 or 1-0. To me the wild card is Ibra. They didn't have the likes of him before. Last year they lost away to Midtyjjand and Liverpool.

Taking Gloucester to win odds 3.3, home to Kidderminster. Not much reasoning beyond Gloucester's good home form and the tendency for home dogs of this range of odds to win in this league.

I've taken an o2.5 double of Darlington-Tamworth and Stalybridge-Fylde, odds about 2.7. The one thing that speaks against it is Stalybridge have gone from being an overs machine to an unders machine. But, you know, Fylde. But that's the reason both these matches are priced up at o2.5...a month ago this one would have been o3.25. Also, just now took Halifax-Alfreton, o2.75 odds 1.8.

My numbers say to take Swans-Spurs o1 in 1H, so I've taken it. The numbers also say NOT to take the same bet in Chelsea-City. I'll almost certainly stay away even if it seems the better match for first-half goals.

Or, you know, zero.

I've taken o0.75 1H in Ipswich-Wigan...partly because I think a goal will occur in the first half, and partly out of irritation for losing the same bet on Ipswich-Birmingham at the weekend.

I've taken o1 first half in the Leicester-Sunderland match. I see the home side on their front foot early; whether there are 1 or 2 in the back of the net early remains to be seen.

Odds can no longer be ignored; must be taken. Brackley-Halifax odds for o2.5 have moved from 1.8 to 2.13. This is a match that can go either way, and both sides really need to win, Brackley to still be sniffing the playoff spots and Halifax to stay there. Of the two, Halifax are the one who win in high-scoring circumstances, but Brackley actually get as many overs as unders at home, even with worse-looking stats. Reverse fixture finished 3-1. Pure value bet, given the odds drop.

Maguire's in after all. I should know better than to trust Oxford's own website.

I've taken Coventry odds 4.12. The draw was another possibility. Oxford not only are missing McAleny, but Chris Maguire is a doubt given his ongoing groin issue. Games like these are often really 50-50, and I'll go for the best odds.

Cheltenham needs points, Morecambe have serious issues lately, but I've gone for X odds 3.76. Morecambe are far better away than at home and think they'll get something from this match unless they're already on vacation.