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About allthethings

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 12/12/61
  1. UK Weekend > Feb 18th - 20th

    OK, and in League Two it's Barnet X @ 3.83 home to Portsmouth. League Two dogs are better away than at home, but check the home/away records and I think only the h2h speaks against it.
  2. UK Weekend > Feb 18th - 20th

    Going to break my home/away rule here and lump on Port Vale @ 3.86, home to Bristol Rovers. The numbers say draw is a better bet here, but the two sides' records are nearly identical and I'll take the easier route.   Geez, I've conflated two posts here. What I meant to say on this one is that Vale's home record isn't anything to be sniffed at, while Rovers are beatable away.
  3. Weekend > Feb 10th - 12th

    I've taken Southend @ 3.9 and Posh @ 4.08 to win their respective matches in League One. I understand the reason for the odds being the way they are (who opposes Millwall and Sheff Utd?), but these are great prices for two sides that are in the playoff mix or just out of it.
  4. Midweek > Feb 6th - 8th

    I am so mad at myself...of course as soon as I didn't take it I knew it would win, and to make matters worse tailed myself into a hole. Sheesh. After 12 years of punting I still do unconscionably dumb things.
  5. Midweek > Feb 7th & 8th

    Morecambe look awfully good at 3.0, as they're one of the better away sides facing a really terrible team in Orient. Unless recent transfers suggest otherwise, I'd think Morecambe are extreme value. Adding: The only match this season where Morecambe were away to a side over 2.0 was Hartlepool, who beat them 3-2. But they are 5-4-4 overall, 5-4-3 when the home side were outright favorites.
  6. Midweek > Feb 6th - 8th

    I'm thinking about O3.5 in the Hampton & Richmond-Gosport match, but every time I take one of these big overs in matches involving big over sides, the final is 2-0. Any advice? Might give it a swerve.
  7. Weekend > Feb 4th & 5th

    Something I've been doing a lot lately, with some success. First half over 1: Chelsea-Arsenal 1.87 Hull-Liverpool 1.7 Everton-Bournemouth 1.74 You're hoping to avoid a 0-0, of course, and hoping to get lucky with one of the matches. Of the three, the one I like the least is the early match, because we know how uninspiring those can be. But certainly there are a lot of dodgy defenses on display here, and certainly favorites and dogs are motivated to get an edge early...I don't suspect we'll see these sides being cagey.
  8. Midweek > Jan 31st - Feb 2nd

    Meanwhile, this is Soccerway's Fulham list.   Transfers in (€0) 30/06/17 S. Humphrys Shrewsbury N/A 30/06/17 M. Rodak Accrington N/A 30/06/17 C. Burgess Bury N/A 30/06/17 George Christopher Williams MK Dons N/A 30/06/17 Jozabed Celta de Vigo N/A 30/06/17 R. Tunnicliffe Wigan N/A 30/06/17 C. Woodrow Burton Albion N/A 30/06/17 S. Kavanagh Hartlepool N/A 30/06/17 L. Christensen Burton Albion N/A 30/06/17 J. Grimmer Shrewsbury N/A 30/06/17 R. Stearman Wolverhampton N/A 31/05/17 L. Cole Inverness N/A 25/01/17 T. Petsos Bremen Loan 04/01/17 C. Burgess Oldham N/A 02/01/17 L. Cole Inverness N/A Transfers out (€575K) 30/06/17 T. Kalas Chelsea N/A 30/06/17 Lucas Piazon Chelsea N/A 30/06/17 T. Petsos Bremen N/A 30/06/17 C. Martin Derby N/A 30/01/17 M. Smith QPR € 575K 26/01/17 C. Woodrow Burton Albion Loan 26/01/17 L. Christensen Burton Albion Loan 25/01/17 S. Humphrys Shrewsbury Loan 19/01/17 R. Tunnicliffe Wigan Loan 12/01/17 M. Rodak Accrington Loan 12/01/17 Jozabed Celta de Vigo Loan 05/01/17 C. Burgess Bury Loan 04/01/17 S. Kavanagh Hartlepool Loan 03/01/17 L. Cole Inverness Loan
  9. Midweek > Jan 31st - Feb 2nd

    I see Burton's 4.13 as a pretty amazing price, given that we don't have any idea what side they'll put out there. At least that's how it seems to me reading the list of recent transfers. Anybody can enlighten me on this?   Transfers in (€0) 30/06/17 M. Dinanga Matlock N/A 04/02/17 B. Fox Tamworth N/A 30/01/17 M. Kightly Burnley Loan 26/01/17 C. Woodrow Fulham Loan 26/01/17 L. Christensen Fulham Loan 05/01/17 L. Murphy Leeds Loan 03/01/17 L. Varney Ipswich Free 31/12/16 M. Sordell Coventry Free Transfers out (€0) 30/06/17 C. Woodrow Fulham N/A 30/06/17 L. Christensen Fulham N/A 30/06/17 L. Murphy Leeds N/A 30/06/17 J. Brayford Sheff Utd N/A 30/06/17 M. Kightly Burnley N/A 29/06/17 W. Miller Tottenham N/A 31/05/17 C. O'Grady Brighton N/A 14/01/17 J. Ward Nottm Forest N/A 03/01/17 H. Choudhury Leicester N/A 31/12/16 C. Reilly Coventry Free 31/12/16 S. Beavon Coventry Free
  10. Midweek > Jan 30th & 31st

    Can't argue with Curzon Ashton being the form side, but the total may betray you. Curzon 7-5 in overs at home, Stalybridge 8-5 in overs away. Only three sides have scored fewer at home than Curzon, and no side has scored fewer away than Stalybridge's 9 (they're tied for 8th in goals conceded away). They played four times in 2016, and one went over.
  11. How you all did this week

    Kind of silly to count plays by percentage won, don't you think? I won my only posted play at 4.68, doesn't have much in common with winning one at 1.4
  12. UK Weekend > Jan 27th - 29th

    Been looking at the trio of big dogs in League Two...two of them, Barnet and Exeter, among the best away sides in the league. They're playing at formidable home sides, of course, Carlisle and Portsmouth respectively. Orient are a for-sure miss, although the way my mind works is that when I see people pushing Mansfield and others climb on, I wouldn't be surprised to see the favorite bottle it. Of the others I mentioned, it's hard to see past the 4.43 average price on Exeter, who are 9-1-4 away to this point and can probably go toe to toe with Portsmouth. They're on an amazing run of form, 7-2-0, in which they've scored 20 and conceded 2. My book has it at 4.68, and I'll bite.
  13. Midweek Non League 23rd-24th January

    0-0 HT. Fecking typical. I know, it's only at the half, and there's plenty of football still to be played.   About three weeks ago, I started looking at the N/S leagues and the number of goals scored, and decided I would focus on matches only where the home side's overs matched the away side's overs. Like this match, only this match has the highest goals average for both sides, home and away. Before today, this strategy had led to a 4-9 record and a loss of 6.5 units. After I lose today, it'll be 4-10 and a loss of 11 units. I mean, what the hell?
  14. The 4/1 or Higher Theory

    Sorry mates, didn't realize this was sitting here waiting for a reply. I did get a notification, though, and now that I see it... Premier has performed about to expectations. 7-16-60 in total by the big dogs away, 10-7-29 by the home dogs. The latter is a bit of a surprise that they've managed outright wins when they ordinarily get draws. Championship has been abysmal this season, taking 9 units of mine as the sides have seemingly forgotten all about how to get 1 point. Away dogs there are 21-14-59. Something for sure is different in 2016-17. The league that has been lights out this season for draws is League One...13-30-57 for all away dogs (30% draws), and 34% if you just take dogs under 5.99. I missed the time I realized what was happening it was too late, as I was expecting a reversion to the mean that hasn't yet come. League Two has been as I predicted (which continues about a seven-year run), of wins by away dogs, particularly those in the range of under 4.99 (18-19-36). I've gotten very lucky there...I've won a few flyers, had sides draw when I called draw, that sort of thing. +16.5 units currently. If you're looking to the future, February is usually a month for draws, and then March is a month for wins by dogs.
  15. Midweek Non League 23rd-24th January

    I'm going way, way big, bigger than I should, on the over 3.5 in the Fylde-Alfreton match @ 1.8. It's basically the matchup of the two biggest over sides in the league, or any league.