allthethings

I have the two big home dogs as well, though with lower odds of 4.50 and 3.80. But I'm also watching three away dogs in the 3.30 (Notts Co) to 3.70 (Maidenhead and Wealdstone) range. It's not a typical season, but in typical seasons these types of away dogs do very well during the last round, 7-7-6 by my count over the past decade. Only Bromley have anything to play for (against County), but that doesn't seem to matter this time of year, as a 9th or would-be 7th place side are as likely to bottle it under pressure as win. If any of these matches remain in that range by kickoff, I'll be on the

I was on the draw in the recent Leeds-ManU match and it finished 0-0. Unposted: It is a fact that when I post, I lose. Anyway, this is the sweet spot for ManU draws going back the dozen years I've been keeping track, 40% draws. This season they're 9-7-0 away, drawing against the top sides but also some of the likes of Palace and West Brom. There's undefeated and then there's winning roughly half your away matches. 3.97 is a good price, too.

Bristol City are currently 5.09 home to Brentford, who go into the playoff as the top seed no matter what. One wonders why anyone would put a farthing on the Bees.

Gonna take a flyer at St. Johnstone home to Rangers today at 4.50. They play again in the FA Cup quarterfinal Saturday, and so this particular match is the place to take it easier, as it is meaningless to Rangers. Historically home dogs in the Championship bracket do well.

Curious whether anyone is watching Wealdstone-Woking (I can't get it where I am). It doesn't seem like Woking had a dominant first half statistically anyway, so I'm wondering why just prior to the half Wealdstone were +425 to win, Woking -130.

A couple of years ago I started paying attention to midweek matches in all the lower leagues that had been postponed from weekends due to weather. My interest had to do with how schedules could become clotted with games as the season went on, what travel might mean with many smaller sides, and so on, and as usual I was focused on clear underdogs to favorites of under 2.00. Anyway, the numbers are different in all of the leagues, but generally there are more draws in these matches than there are in regularly scheduled weekend matches. I find this interesting...far from being at a greater d

Draw is a good shout here as it's priced at 4.00 as opposed to 3.35 for the PSV win. Been keeping track of this league for 10 years, and PSV have never been a home dog until now. They're 14-9-6 home to Ajax. Ajax as a favorite away of up to 3.99 are 9-2-4 in the league during this time, meaning 27% of the time they lose. As a favorite away of 4.00-4.99, they're 15-6-9, losing 30% of the time. So Ajax's tendency in the league is to drop all three when they drop points, and PSV are in an unfamiliar position here as a home dog. As I say, I'd go for the better price. Each side only

Out of many leans, there is only one clear play using my methods: Rangers-Antwerp X @ 3.85. This is the same lean as the first match, which was sadly (from my perspective) lost on a 90' PK after an Antwerp player was sent off. Second leg of the round of 16, sides that lost by 1 goal at home get a lot of draws in the return away. Antwerp also fall into a smaller subset of those sides that were underdogs at home in the first leg, all of which drew in the second leg.

Would just like to point out that five of the past eight home dogs in this round in the range of 8.00 to 15.00 have managed draws in 90 minutes. That was, of course, with people in the stands and all that. Two years ago City visited Swans in the quarterfinal round and the match was in the balance until an Aguero strike at 89' for the 3-2 City win. Swans and Barnsley both fit this angle at the moment.

Somebody quickly talk me out of Bristol City. Why on earth they're 4.36 away to Derby is beyond me.

As I don't see anywhere to put them, also taking Cambridge at 5.00 and Accrington at 4.50 in the EFL Trophy.

Two draws today: Rochdale 3.71 and Harrogate 3.54.

I'm on Billericay at 3.90. Just five points separate the sides, and as I always say, home dogs in N/S.

Old age for you: I go on and on about home dogs in N/S and forget to add the part about away dogs, which Hungerford are. Hungerford have won at Tonbridge and Hemel Hempstead as dogs of up to 4.00, and that's a trend hitting at 27 percent over the years and 30 percent this season (15-11-24).

Over the years, home dogs of up to 4.00 in the N/S leagues have been cash cows; Hungerford in fact won at home against Chippenham and Dorking in October. But the overall trend hasn't held up too well: 14-23-31 over the past two seasons, and hasn't been a thing since 2017-18. That season and before, they won at a bit better than 30 percent at odds averaging 3.70. As I said, it's draws lately, but given the odds, even with a record of 5-10-6, if you'd played all wins you'd only be down 5.5 units. Regarding my earlier post, Weymouth are not a play at odds over 5.00, but Wrexham and Hartlepoo