allthethings

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allthethings last won the day on August 13 2016

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About allthethings

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 12/12/61
  1. Champions League Predictions > Oct 17th & 18th

    Maybe Man U would win anyway, but JFC the keeper caught the free kick but went into the goal with it. next time punch it, dumbass
  2. Champions League Predictions > Oct 17th & 18th

    Taken Benfica @ 4.5. Seems a big number for a home side who must win against an away side that need not win and traditionally haven’t traveled well in Europe.
  3. Poland 1st Div 2017/18

    This setting up a lot like yesterday in League Two. Olimpia Grudziadz is also overpriced at about 3.15.
  4. Chobry Glogow away 18-10-17, odds 3.30. Take a look at the table and you'll share my confusion. They're in the top tier so far with a good away record, playing a bottom side, Sosnowiec, who they regularly beat.
  5. UK Football Predictions > Oct 17th

    Feeling Grimsby and Colchester are overpriced, and like the looks of Grimsby better.
  6. My question is just about your general feel for this situation, which I’ve seen twice in the past two days, and I’m wondering also whether there’s a good database that backs up one or the other strategy. Okay, Sunday. I’m a fan of backing underdogs, and I’m a big fan of Sweden’s Div 1 (the third league). Enskede, a side that have been just demolished this season in general and this month in particular, are home to Assyriska, which not long ago were in Superettan. Enskede are about 3.5, but my book doesn’t have odds until about half an hour before the match, and then only briefly. I watch the average odds go to about 5.00 on Bet Explorer, and I miss it. Meanwhile the odds on +0.5, which don’t disappear, go from +2.02 to 3.05, but the book never changes it to +0.75 or +1. I take +0.5 at about 3.0, giving up that they’ll post up the 5.0 ever. Final score Enskede 3-0. Today. I’m kind of liking Helmond away at Jong AZ, a side I think don’t rate that highly. Helmond are having an awful season though; they’re priced about 4.05. Suddenly, half an hour before the match, odds shoot up until Helmond are about 4.85. I briefly consider it, but pass. Final score AZ 1-3 Helmond. So...those could have gone either way, right? In each case there was something speaking for the dog...Enskede at home with Assyriska unmotivated as the season winds down. Helmond not as bad as they’ve shown early. Just my take. But in both cases the market just went crazy for the favorites, to the point that I wondered if they were reacting...overreacting...to some bit of news I didn’t know. Thoughts? Thanks.
  7. UK Football Predictions > Oct 6th - 8th

    Liking Stranraer today at a good price to beat Dumbarton in the CC
  8. EFL Trophy Predictions > Oct 3rd

    I took all 10 in the end. Seven matches lost (three draws), and Bury, Forest and Chesterfield won. Two units each means +13 on the day. Useful to see, again: Ten big dogs go 3-3-4, meaning just four big favorites got three points. The U-23s went 2-2-3 as big dogs, too, for a change.
  9. EFL Trophy Predictions > Oct 3rd

    OK, here's an example from today's matches. Portsmouth are big favorites, Crawley are currently better than 5/1 at my book. Last year, Crawley beat Charlton in round two as a dog of 6.17, thereby making the knockouts instead of Charlton. And Portsmouth? Their all time record in this event is 3-3-5, 1-3-2 at home. Crawley's record is 5-1-8, 2-1-4 away. Crawley are 6.55 here because they're away to a League One side.
  10. EFL Trophy Predictions > Oct 3rd

    You might have wondered how academy sides have fared as a favorite of under 2.00. Four matches last year, all in the last round at home...they went 1-1-2. Look to oppose them in round 3.
  11. EFL Trophy Predictions > Oct 3rd

    Has always been my favorite competition, with the knockouts a bloodbath year after year...the odds were always set based on league position, and hardly any sides took it seriously, so you never knew who was going to feature. The addition of group play had me wondering whether this would change. The only change has been that the academy sides are every bit as poor as the odds would suggest. Though perhaps they're getting better, based on the first group matches this season. Last year the academy underdogs (in all cases these are underdogs to a favorite of under 2.00) went 3-4-12 in group play, while the Football League underdogs went 10-4-14. This season I'm not sure that managers haven't adjusted their strategy late in matches to the extra point for a draw that ends in a win on penalties. Because draws predominated in round 1. In the first matches, Football League underdogs went 1-1-1, while academy underdogs went 1-4-6. There are nine matches today with a Football League underdog. You can play them all, knowing you need about two wins to profit, or pick and choose. Stevenage look overpriced to me. Also Morecambe looks dead in the water, but on the other hand they've been a spectacular away underdog over the years, although not so much since several strikers transferred out last winter. They've become more draw-masters. But anyway, here they are in a competition no one likes, with Fleetwood having won their first one. Will think more on that.
  12. EFL Trophy Predictions > Oct 3rd

    I predict you're both making a mistake, sad to say. This competition throws up so many upsets that you are wasting your money betting favorites. On the other hand, it's a competition that rewards flyers, particularly if the academies aren't involved. I'll be back closer to game time if my boss isn't around.
  13. Premier League Predictions > Sep 23rd - 25th

    I just took X at the half at 5.50. Ridiculous price given that the sides have been fairly close to even.
  14. Premier League Predictions > Sep 23rd - 25th

    I would go for an X (0-0 or 1-1) in Leicester.
  15. UK Football Predictions > Sep 19th & 20th

    2-4, +2 units. Was one minute away from +6.3. I don't know how the fukc you take the lead at 93 minutes and manage to blow it. Guess Leeds really wanted to play even longer.