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allthethings last won the day on January 16

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About allthethings

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 12/12/61
  1. That wasn't the League Two curtain call I was hoping for...County couldn't score with an extra man for half an hour. Oh well, onward: W: Bury, Peterborough, Charlton D: Bradford, MK Dons
  2. I've taken Vale @ 4.03 and Notts County @ 4.25. Odds 5dimes...BetExplorer, which I use, has both under 4.00. Also taken Wycombe-Stevenage X @ 4.28. League One later.
  3. Depends on whether you think Notts County have a reason to prefer Lincoln over Coventry as their first playoff matchup. County went 1-1 against Coventry, losing away; against Lincoln they got a draw away plus a home win. County have the worst away record of any of them, so this might be a motivation to win here. Luton, meanwhile, had an 8-10-4 record away this season, and that's when they were trying. They have nothing at all to play for today.
  4. One match where I really am scratching my head is Hamilton at Dundee, priced currently at 4.03. Both sides need points to avoid dropping into the relegation zone, and Hamilton had beaten Dundee four straight until losing to them at home in January. Hamilton are 3-1-0 in their last four at Dundee, so I fail to understand the love for the home side here. This season: Hamilton (A) 4-3-10 21-29 Dundee (H) 5-3-9 17-26 h2h Hamilton 2-0-1
  5. I'll be looking to oppose home favorites of under 2.00 in both League One and Two when the underdog's odds are under 4.00. This is a good last-week option...these dogs have gone 9-5-7 in my database, which goes back to 2008-09. Dogs of 4.00-4.99 have gone 4-9-12 during that time, too. Two: At the moment, Wycombe-Stevenage are 4.90 (D), which is a ridiculous price when the match is meaningless. One: Peterborough (W), and Bury, Bradford and MK Dons (D). All of these matches are meaningless. We'll see what the odds do between now and 10 minutes before kickoff.
  6. Non-League Predictions > May 5th - May 7th

    It's a fairly rare occurrence for playoff matches to have heavy favorites. All the sides are good at getting a result away even on their off days. Twenty-one of 67 playoff games since 2005 have featured a favorite of under 2.00 in this league, and the dogs have gone 5-5-11. But all my numbers reflect the old playoff setup, with nearly all of the big favorites in second-leg semifinal matches. Thanks to the league for rendering my numbers virtually meaningless. I can tell you 21 of 67 have been won by 2+ goals, and eight of those were won by the side with the bigger odds. So 13 of 67 have been favorites winning by 2+ goals...19%. Among the big favorites, it's seven of 21, or 33%.
  7. It’s a hunch, I guess. Rochdale have scraped together draws as a home favorite, while Plymouth are 5-5-3 as an away dog this season, which is amazing.
  8. Although I think the smarter play is draw (3.60), I think I might take Plymouth to win (4.12) at Rochdale. God knows they both are desperate for three points...the home side are trying to save their skins and Plymouth have lost their last two away when they were in the last playoff spot instead of just outside it now. It’ll be a last-minute decision but I’ll oppose Rochdale either way.
  9. Was thinking of taking the draw in Hibs-Celtic, but noticed that home dogs in this range of 4.0-4.99 have gone 4-1-7 against Celtic. Since I can't comfortably take Hibs to win (who can you take comfortably to beat Celtic?), I'm swerving.
  10. Premier League Predictions > Apr 14th - 19th

    I wouldn’t put a dime on Burnley. Their great run against top sides was on away, and mostly early in the season. That tells me that they were underestimated. At home against top sides, where the home crowd cheer for the team to push forward? They’ve lost all but one, and they were massively outplayed in their draw against City. Further, it is typical in the Premier that home dogs do their damage early on. Last month of the season it is very rare for a top team to slip up when they have a winnable match. That is true even of Arsenal, though I might be convinced to take Burnley in their match at Arsenal on May 6, depending on the odds.
  11. Championship Predictions > Apr 10th & 11th

    Amazing, just was looking through records and saw that as a home favorite of under 2.00 since joining the Championship, Preston are 2-10-1. I’d considered taking the draw today, but this incredible info has actually put me off. Theyve had five matches in recent years, with Leeds winning two and drawing three. With Preston 1-0-4 in their last five it makes me wonder whether Leeds at 4.76 isn’t a better bet.
  12. I never expected to wake up and see all the money flow toward Rangers; they're at 3.47 now, and would not be a play for me...except I took them last night. I have to hope the market is correct, which is a fool's errand if there ever was one.
  13. I think Rangers could take something from the big match, and I'd be inclined toward the outright win. Going back to 2011 in my database, home dogs of up to 3.99 in SPL win 30% and draw 23%, and of course these are matches that don't involve Celtic, because they very typically play away at 1.12 or something to dogs of 9.00 and 10.00 and 11.00. Their closest rivals are priced at 5.50 at home, not 3.75, which is where Rangers are at the moment. In my database, Celtic have only faced one home dog in the range of up to 3.99...and they lost that one, to Aberdeen. Home dogs against Celtic this season are 2-2-11, but I'm interested in how it has gone week by week. Rangers lost at home 0-2 in week 7 as a dog of 5.68, and all home dogs were 0-0-7 through week 14. Motherwell got a 1-1 draw in a replay after week 15 as a dog of 10.00, Hibs got a 2-2 draw in week 17 as a dog of 5.46, and then Hearts won in week 19 as a dog of 9.44. Kilmarnock won in week 26 as a dog of 10.16. Now, Rangers have lost plenty at home as big favorites, too, but Celtic seem to have lost some of their luster as the season has gone on. As I said, I think the win is marked. Going back to my numbers...league-wide, home dogs of up to 3.99 are 10-7-14, and home dogs of 4.00 to 4.99 are 19-12-50, again more wins than draws. That's a total of 29-19-64. Celtic's opponents in that group are 5-1-7. The win for me...5dimes has them at 4.08 at the moment.
  14. Non-League Predictions > March 5th/6th

    Took the o3 in the Hemel-E Thurrock match this morning at 1.96; it has since dropped to 1.86 but I still think it’s a good price whatever the weather.
  15. Non-League Predictions > Feb 24th

    FA Trophy: Spennymoor 3.97, Wealdstone 4.48 A competition that rewards the adventurous...there just simply isn't such a gap between these sides to make any of them a prohibitive favorite.