allthethings

That looked pretty good for about 11 minutes.

In the end I took Wales @ 4.65. Simply a value bet, as I agree the sides are closer to even than the odds would suggest, and I hated the 3.10 on offer for the X at my book.

It's a decent shout, but over the past 20 years those draws have come later in the bracket, in the semis. It's putting me off the draw in the Wales match, actually, even though you'd expect Wales to do such a thing, as they did against the Swiss. And in fact, the books have priced it that way: 4.81 for the Wales win in 90, 3.22 for the draw. I might be inclined to play on the win for that reason, but haven't pulled the trigger yet. Wales's defense is good and, really, the Danes aren't that great without Eriksen. A Wales win wouldn't shock too terribly.

Going contrarian...on Russia at 5.45. Denmark look better, Russia travel poorly, Russia just need a draw...I know all that. I also know that the third group game is the Euros' banana peel, and these two sides are not so different to justify these kinds of odds.

I have the two big home dogs as well, though with lower odds of 4.50 and 3.80. But I'm also watching three away dogs in the 3.30 (Notts Co) to 3.70 (Maidenhead and Wealdstone) range. It's not a typical season, but in typical seasons these types of away dogs do very well during the last round, 7-7-6 by my count over the past decade. Only Bromley have anything to play for (against County), but that doesn't seem to matter this time of year, as a 9th or would-be 7th place side are as likely to bottle it under pressure as win. If any of these matches remain in that range by kickoff, I'll be on the dogs at best odds.

I was on the draw in the recent Leeds-ManU match and it finished 0-0. Unposted: It is a fact that when I post, I lose. Anyway, this is the sweet spot for ManU draws going back the dozen years I've been keeping track, 40% draws. This season they're 9-7-0 away, drawing against the top sides but also some of the likes of Palace and West Brom. There's undefeated and then there's winning roughly half your away matches. 3.97 is a good price, too.

Bristol City are currently 5.09 home to Brentford, who go into the playoff as the top seed no matter what. One wonders why anyone would put a farthing on the Bees.

Gonna take a flyer at St. Johnstone home to Rangers today at 4.50. They play again in the FA Cup quarterfinal Saturday, and so this particular match is the place to take it easier, as it is meaningless to Rangers. Historically home dogs in the Championship bracket do well.

Curious whether anyone is watching Wealdstone-Woking (I can't get it where I am). It doesn't seem like Woking had a dominant first half statistically anyway, so I'm wondering why just prior to the half Wealdstone were +425 to win, Woking -130.

A couple of years ago I started paying attention to midweek matches in all the lower leagues that had been postponed from weekends due to weather. My interest had to do with how schedules could become clotted with games as the season went on, what travel might mean with many smaller sides, and so on, and as usual I was focused on clear underdogs to favorites of under 2.00. Anyway, the numbers are different in all of the leagues, but generally there are more draws in these matches than there are in regularly scheduled weekend matches. I find this interesting...far from being at a greater disadvantage, it tends to advantage the lesser sides. Or to put it another way, the better sides are presumed by the betting public to benefit on short weeks, probably just because they're better sides, and the results don't bear this out. I subsequently split the data into three: Early season (pre-Christmas, when there are lots of midweek matches in the schedule), Jan-Feb (the height of winter, when you're making up matches in the same dodgy weather that forced the original postponement) and season's end (March-May; holy shit we have to get these played before the season's done). In the National, the early-season makeups are the best for draws, the mid-season matches are kind of inconclusive, and the late season sees more draws. There's one subset that's particularly interesting: Late season matches with an away dog in the range of 6.00 to 7.99. Not quite the biggest away dogs (those greater than 8.00 have a record of 3-4-21 for the whole season), but pretty sizable dogs, the late-season away dogs of 6.00-7.99 have a record of 1-7-11, or 37% draws. Eastleigh are a play today. Kings Lynn and Solihull Moors, as dogs of under 4.00, are under my recommended line (29% draws in late season and 28% draws overall, historically), but Wealdstone are for sure a live dog as Darren said based on these historical trends: home dogs of under 4.00 are 5-8-8 from March through May, 24% win and 38% draw.

Draw is a good shout here as it's priced at 4.00 as opposed to 3.35 for the PSV win. Been keeping track of this league for 10 years, and PSV have never been a home dog until now. They're 14-9-6 home to Ajax. Ajax as a favorite away of up to 3.99 are 9-2-4 in the league during this time, meaning 27% of the time they lose. As a favorite away of 4.00-4.99, they're 15-6-9, losing 30% of the time. So Ajax's tendency in the league is to drop all three when they drop points, and PSV are in an unfamiliar position here as a home dog. As I say, I'd go for the better price. Each side only give up half a goal per game h/a, which speaks to it also. Maybe 1-1 CS makes more sense.

Out of many leans, there is only one clear play using my methods: Rangers-Antwerp X @ 3.85. This is the same lean as the first match, which was sadly (from my perspective) lost on a 90' PK after an Antwerp player was sent off. Second leg of the round of 16, sides that lost by 1 goal at home get a lot of draws in the return away. Antwerp also fall into a smaller subset of those sides that were underdogs at home in the first leg, all of which drew in the second leg.

Would just like to point out that five of the past eight home dogs in this round in the range of 8.00 to 15.00 have managed draws in 90 minutes. That was, of course, with people in the stands and all that. Two years ago City visited Swans in the quarterfinal round and the match was in the balance until an Aguero strike at 89' for the 3-2 City win. Swans and Barnsley both fit this angle at the moment.

Somebody quickly talk me out of Bristol City. Why on earth they're 4.36 away to Derby is beyond me.

As I don't see anywhere to put them, also taking Cambridge at 5.00 and Accrington at 4.50 in the EFL Trophy.