allthethings

Draw is a good shout here as it's priced at 4.00 as opposed to 3.35 for the PSV win. Been keeping track of this league for 10 years, and PSV have never been a home dog until now. They're 14-9-6 home to Ajax. Ajax as a favorite away of up to 3.99 are 9-2-4 in the league during this time, meaning 27% of the time they lose. As a favorite away of 4.00-4.99, they're 15-6-9, losing 30% of the time. So Ajax's tendency in the league is to drop all three when they drop points, and PSV are in an unfamiliar position here as a home dog. As I say, I'd go for the better price. Each side only

Out of many leans, there is only one clear play using my methods: Rangers-Antwerp X @ 3.85. This is the same lean as the first match, which was sadly (from my perspective) lost on a 90' PK after an Antwerp player was sent off. Second leg of the round of 16, sides that lost by 1 goal at home get a lot of draws in the return away. Antwerp also fall into a smaller subset of those sides that were underdogs at home in the first leg, all of which drew in the second leg.

Would just like to point out that five of the past eight home dogs in this round in the range of 8.00 to 15.00 have managed draws in 90 minutes. That was, of course, with people in the stands and all that. Two years ago City visited Swans in the quarterfinal round and the match was in the balance until an Aguero strike at 89' for the 3-2 City win. Swans and Barnsley both fit this angle at the moment.

Somebody quickly talk me out of Bristol City. Why on earth they're 4.36 away to Derby is beyond me.

As I don't see anywhere to put them, also taking Cambridge at 5.00 and Accrington at 4.50 in the EFL Trophy.

Two draws today: Rochdale 3.71 and Harrogate 3.54.

I'm on Billericay at 3.90. Just five points separate the sides, and as I always say, home dogs in N/S.

Old age for you: I go on and on about home dogs in N/S and forget to add the part about away dogs, which Hungerford are. Hungerford have won at Tonbridge and Hemel Hempstead as dogs of up to 4.00, and that's a trend hitting at 27 percent over the years and 30 percent this season (15-11-24).

Over the years, home dogs of up to 4.00 in the N/S leagues have been cash cows; Hungerford in fact won at home against Chippenham and Dorking in October. But the overall trend hasn't held up too well: 14-23-31 over the past two seasons, and hasn't been a thing since 2017-18. That season and before, they won at a bit better than 30 percent at odds averaging 3.70. As I said, it's draws lately, but given the odds, even with a record of 5-10-6, if you'd played all wins you'd only be down 5.5 units. Regarding my earlier post, Weymouth are not a play at odds over 5.00, but Wrexham and Hartlepoo

The matches I keep track of specifically involve dogs to favorites of better than 2.00 (closing line), and I was hoping to see lots of them because the sandwich match between Boxing Day and New Year's is always full of outright wins by dogs. Currently there are just two: Altrincham and Weymouth, but they are very live dogs in this situation.

If this is what you think will happen, I think it would make more sense to take the 11.50 on offer for CS 2-2. At the current prices, if you win the over at poor odds, you'll lose the draw bet for a push or loss on the day, depending on how you handled the staking. Personally I think it's hard to ignore a price of 3.75 on the champions. It's absurd, I don't care how spotty they've been on away lately or whatever. No real motivation on either side, no hfa without fans, and Klopp is the kind of guy who would be delighted to stick it to the rivals. When will you ever see a price this big on

Fernandes so far proving me wrong, and Stevie right.

LASK 4.80 If you take Man Utd in this one, on away with no spectators and no attack, you're basically taking a team because of the crest. The Linz side are good, fit, on as good a run of form as United, highly motivated, and home. What's more, you get 4/1 for a home side to win a first leg match when United don't have to be concerned if they lose narrowly, with the second leg at home.

Have to share this little nugget. My database in the FA Cup goes back to 2009, and it's a small sample, but the results in the 8th-finals are surprising. Big dogs away get outright wins at a high rate when they're in the up-to-5.00 range (no matches fit this year), and big home dogs are 0-7-15 (32% draws). The surprising thing is it's the home dogs of greater than 8.00 that are most responsible. Those huge dogs are 0-5-5. Most recent was Rochdale taking Spurs to a replay in 2018 as dogs of 14.74. The year before, Huddersfield (10.80) drew 0-0 with Man City. Oldham, Orient, Stevenage got draws

Looking at draws in Sunderland, Oxford and Portsmouth, but it will be a last-minute decision.