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About vicsuna

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  • Birthday 06/06/1992

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  1. As a Manchester United fan I am hoping Aaron Wan Bissaka's transfer gets finalized given the need for quality right back. Ashley Young is too old and the whole defence needs a refresh but AWB's transfer from Crystal Palace seems as a done deal and the bookies give odds of 7/20 tops.
  2. My money is on the draw Chelsea are the favourites but Emery is the Europa league specialist. One thing I noticed in the head-to-head stats is the high number of draws between Arsenal & Chelsea on Wednesdays. Typically Wednesday is a cup or European game and I think it is a good sample. Since Abramovich took over, Chelsea and Arsenal have 4 draws and one 2:1 win each. That is 66% draw rate. Historically 50% or 7 out 14 games between the two teams on Wednesdays. 30 out of all 101 games between Chelsea and Arsenal ended as a draw or less than 30%
  3. Barcelona vs Valencia: Barcelona-1 Draw The Catalans are without Dembele and Suarez but Vidal's attacking presence and some magic trick from Messi may lead to narrow win over Valencia. Marcelino has never won vs Barca with 14 losses from 20 games. Since July 2017 when both Valverde and Marcelino were appointed by their current clubs Barca has 3 wins vs Valencia and 3 draws. 2 of those wins were with 1 goal difference.
  4. Alaves vs Girona: Alaves -1 Draw Girona are a team losing by one goal in roughly 1/3rd of La Liga matches - 11 out of 37 matches and 4 out of 18 away games. Girona is practically in Segunda Division and topscorer Stuani will not play vs Alaves. The Uruguayan has scored 19 goals or 52% of Girona's total La Liga goals. Manager Eusebio cried after loss vs Levante and apologised to everyone involved with the club but he is widely expected to be sacked and most of Girona's best players to be sold on a discount after relegation. Only Betis and Leganes's wins by 1 goal difference at home are higher percentage from total home wins than Alaves' 83% out of 6 home games. Alaves has only won 6 out of 18 home games, losing 4 times and drawing 8 games. Alaves has not won at home since 11 February and will try to finish strongly the season in front of home crowd after missing European football. The team has won only 2 out of 10 home La Liga games in 2019 Alaves has already confirmed that Abelardo will not be manager of the team next season.After season and a half, in which the team has gone from the relegation zone last season to touch the European places this year, the time has come to separate the paths of club and coach after not reaching an agreement to renew his contract for the next season. The manager wants to say goodbye to the home crowd with a victory that leaves a good taste and the team with 50 points. Most importantly Alaves can be higher up the table and get paid more from TV rights & La Liga revenues. Last Alaves home game vs Girona in Copa del Rey ended 2:2 after Girona equalizer in the 96th minute. Head-to-head stats show that only 1 out of 14 games between Alaves and Girona ended with more than 1 goal difference. All 4 of Alaves' wins vs Girona were with 1 goal difference. Bookies give lowest odds in whole round of matches that this game will be decided by 1 goal. I am backing the home side to win it with 1 goal difference as I can not see a miraculous Girona win without Stuani.
  5. Cagliari vs Lazio: Draw Lazio's defeat vs Atalanta last week has left them without a realistic chance for Champions League spot and the team's focus is now on the Coppa Italia Final on 15 May. Lazio will be without their star man in midfield - Milinković-Savić and I reckon they will have a hard time controlling the tempo of the game vs Cagliari. Cagliari lost in injury time vs Napoli after a controversial VAR handball penalty and the president of the team was very disappointed stressing that Cagliari fights for every point. The team needs one point to confirm their Serie A spot mathematically. Cagliari has drawn all of their home games vs teams outside of top 4 till 10th. Cagliari has also drawn their last 2 home matches vs Lazio.
  6. Liverpool vs Barcelona: Draw/Barcelona Half time/Full time Everything about Liverpool & Barcelona injuries/ fitness has been said already and I see Spanish side as more likely to win. Messi made the difference in first game and he is the bookies favourite for this year's Golden Ball, so I prefer mainly looking at Barca's historic stats with him. Messi has won 7 times in the Champions League vs English teams in England or even 8 if you count the Wembley final vs Manchester United. Messi has lost 5 matches and drew 3 times in Champions League games played in England. Nearly 50% historic probability for Barca win while bookies give close to 35%. Messi has won 4/5 out of 15/16 matches away vs English teams draw/Barca half time/Full time(second number is if you count the Wembley final), including a similar win last time he played at Anfield in 2007. That gives close to 30% historic probability compared to roughly 15% implied odds. Barca won last 2 games vs Liverpool at Anfield Draw/Barca HT/FT. I see a tight first half maybe even 1:1 then Barca can catch Liverpool on the brea, especially with the pace of Dembele who had 3 big chances for less than 10 minutes in first game. Liverpool also lost Champions League final vs Real Madrid in a similar fashion last year without Salah for most of the match. I see more value in backing Draw/Barca HT/FT than an outright win for Barca as historic and implied probability demonstrates.
  7. Huesca vs Valencia: Draw Zero draws in current La Liga round compared to average of +2 draws per round and I look for a tie in the last match this weekend (Real Valladolid are leading 1:0 at the break vs Athletic Bilbao in penultimate game..). Valencia has highest number of draws in the league - 16 out of 35 or +45%. Meanwhile, Huesca drew 5 out of last 6 matches and has total of 12 draws this season. Both teams can realistically achieve their goals (out of drop zone/Champions League) if they can win every one of their last 3 remaining games, so they both have everything to play for. But I suspect Huesca and Valencia are going to cancel each other.
  8. Napoli vs Cagliari: Napoli/Napoli HT/FT Only 1 home win in this Serie A round and 2 games remain, where the hosts are the clear favorites. Well, Cagliari is pretty bad away from home and has highest number of Loss/Loss Half Time/Full Time away games this season (10). Napoli has won 8 out of last 10 matches vs Cagliari in Serie A, including HT/FT wins in last two games in Naples. P.s.: In final 30 minutes before the kick off the odds for Napoli/Napoli 3/4 & Cagliari/Napoli less than 20/1 are shortening according to oddschecker.
  9. Eibar vs Real Betis: Eibar-1 Draw Only 1 round last season and 2 this season there was not a La Liga match when at least one home team won by 1 goal difference. Out of the 4 remaining games Betis has the most away losses by just 1 goal margin(6) and Eibar the most home wins with 1 goal difference(5). P.s.: I am also going for correct score double 2:1 for Eibar and 2:0 for Arsenal vs Brighton
  10. Chievo vs SPAL: SPAL to win Chievo are officially relegated and SPAL have a real chance to finish in top half of the table after a remarkable run since start of 2019, winning vs Roma, Lazio, Juve at home and vs Parma, Frosinone and Empoli away. Meanwhile, Chievo has lost 10 out of 15 matches in 2019 and only 1 win vs 10-men Lazio. SPAL has drawn 5, won once and lost once at home vs teams below it in the table(current bottom 7). On the other hand, SPAL has won 4 matches and drawn once vs same teams but away. SPAL won their 3 away games vs bottom 3 last year when the team narrowly escaped the drop zone and has already won 2/2 played away matches vs teams from bottom 3.
  11. Everton vs Burnley: Draw/Everton HT/FT Everton has won 50% of its home games or 9 out of 18. 6 or 2/3 of those wins were Draw/Everton Half time/Full Time. Burnley has lost 50% of its away games. Last game of the season at home for Everton and I think they will match 17/18 season's tally of 7 Draw/Everton HT/FT wins at home. Both Everton and Burnley have drawn at half time 10 out of their 18 home and away games respectively. Burnley are a tough nut to crack but I reckon Everton are going to snatch a win in the second half of the match tonight
  12. Leganes vs Celta Vigo: Celta Vigo win The other La Liga games on Saturday look like certain home wins for the favorites but I suspect Celta may shock 12th placed Leganes in their backyard and the shortening odds in last 48 hours for Celta win point I am on to something. Mauricio Pellegrino’s Leganes have 7 wins, 7 draws and just 3 losses at home with the last defeat coming midweek vs Athletic Bilbao chasing European football. Pellegrino’s last La Liga experience with Deportivo Alaves in 16/17 had a record of 7 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses at home & a safe 9th place at the end of the season. I know I came with similar logic for Eibar away win the other day but I overlooked the injuries/suspensions in Eibar squad that also has almost no motivation till Summer. Huesca also was fighting for survival & had just one point less than Eibar from prior 6 games. Leganes is also in a comfortable position without real risk for relegation and without anything more than mathematical chance for European football. Meanwhile, Celta is fighting for its La Liga place and it seems the relegation battle will be till final round when Celta has a home game vs Rayo Vallecano. I doubt Celta will want to be struggling for survival till last game as they also have games vs Bilbao and Barcelona that look very difficult to get even 1 point. It is also worth noting that Celta has collected 3 more points in last 6 games than Leganes and come in significantly better form as ELO ratings confirm. On the injuries/suspensions side everyone betting on Celta’s games just cares whether Aspas will start or not as the team looks completely different with and without him. Celta has collected just 4 points and has 9 losses from 11 La Liga matches without Aspas this season. Celta has won 8, drew 8 and lost just 7 games with Aspas. Celta’s away record with Aspas is 2/4/6 and without the star striker 0/1/4. Aspas is expected to start vs Leganes. Maybe it is safer to back Celta+1 or Celta DNB but I like the outright win after Celta narrowly missed to beat Espanyol away midweek and have all to fight for against Leganes, whose players have practically done their job to stay in La Liga and may already be planning their vacations.
  13. Huesca vs Eibar: Eibar win Huesca is sitting bottom of the La Liga table with 5 wins 11 draws and 17 losses after 33 games. This is the 2nd time in La Liga history since 3 points for a win and 1 point for a draw system was implemented that a team has those exact stats after Almeria in 10/11 season. Almeria lost the 34th game at home vs Sevilla 0:1 after a red card as I presume there was a lot of pressure on the team to win and keep slim chances to stay in the league. The only other team that had 26 points after 33 league games was Racing Santander in 11/12 season with 4 wins 14 draws and 15 losses after 33 La Liga matches. It is worth noting that Racing won at the start of that season away vs José Luis Mendilibar's Osasuna. Mendilibar is the current coach of Eibar and he lost vs Huesca at home in 18/19. Mendilibar won the away game vs Racing 2:4 in 11/12. The stats of Osasuna in 11/12 and Eibar this year look almost identical - Osasuna 10/6/3 at home & 3/9/7 away vs Eibar 8/5/4 & 1/8/7 away. The only thing missing is more away wins but I think Eibar will upset Huesca. Huesca's current coach Francisco Rodriguez has lost 40 games out of 77 La Liga matches or more than 50% of games. Rodriguez's record with Huesca is 12 losses from 25 games and as Huesca has not managed to stay undefeated for more than 2 home games this season, I see Eibar winning this match. Real Valladolid vs Girona: Real Valladolid win Real Valladolid has won 5 and drew one game vs Girona at home. Girona has lost the last 5 La Liga games and some of them were winnable & now find themselves in the relegation battle. Real Valladolid managed 3 draws and 2 losses in the meantime. Valladolid scored 2 goals in each of the consecutive 2:2 draws vs Getafe and Deportivo Alaves - both teams are still in the mix for European football. Meanwhile, Girona lost their last 2 games vs Celta Vigo & Villareal - giving both struggling teams a lifeline in the relegation battle. Will Girona lose another game vs direct competitor from the relegation zone? I believe so and most probably Real are going to win with just 1 goal difference as 4 of their 5 home wins vs Girona.
  14. In the end I played a double - draw in the Bologna vs Sampdoria game and Udinese to win with 1 goal difference vs Sassuolo. Other games I played in long European accumulator. It is worth noting that Bologna have not lost at home in Serie A vs Sampdoria in more than 15 years - drawing 5 times and winning 4 times ever since. Btw all 11 Serie A games between Udinese & Sassuolo(3/4/4) were either a draw or a win for one of the teams with 1 goal difference. One last spam: Igor Tudor also has 4 wins in charge of Udinese and 75% of them are with 1 goal difference.
  15. Udinese to win vs Sassuolo Sassuolo are in the same 11th position like last season and are all but mathematically confirmed to stay in Serie A next season. Sassuolo’s results vs teams down the table in 18/19 7wins/6draws/3 losses vs 17/18 6wins/6draws/6 losses. 2 of those losses this season happened in recent months away vs relegation battling Empoli and Bologna. Since December’s game vs Frosinone, Sassuolo has not won away with 4 losses & 3 draws. Udinese are on a run of 4 consecutive wins at home and the team has added 7 points to its tally in the 4 games since Igor Tudor is their manager just like the tally from the final 4 matches of Serie A last year when Tudor saved Udinese from the drop zone. This is their most winnable game till end of season and I reckon Udinese are going to snatch a tight victory probably with 1 goal difference Bologna vs Sampdoria to end up as a draw Sampdoria & Bologna have not had a draw in 7 matches or in more than 5 years when Sinisa Mihajlovic was coach of Sampdoria. However, Mihajlovic’s record vs the current manager of Sampdoria Giampolo is 6 draws, 1 win and 2 losses. Bologna are missing their top scorer Santander but he did not really contribute in their recent good run of 3 home wins. A real blow seems to be the suspension of the Dutch left-back Dijks as Bologna has won only 1 out of 12 games when Dijks featured for less than 5 minutes(once a substitute for final 3 minutes and 11 times did not even get one minute). Bologna has drawn 6 of those 12 games and 3 out of 5 at home. It is also worth noting that Bologna’s home record 5/4/7 and Sampdoria’s away record 5/4/6 are almost identical so the match can be very close. Sampdoria are still in the mix for European football next season but their chances are slim and not realistic, so I assume Bologna will be more motivated in the match and only able to get a draw or 1 point due to missing players and coach history. The other main games for the relegation batlle - Cagliari vs Frosinone and Empoli vs SPAL look like unpredictable matches to me. Juventus are probably going to secure the title this weekend but Fiorentina do not give points without a fight this season and Juve’ team spirit may be low after the Champions League loss vs Ajax. I suspect Juve will win with only 1 goal difference like 6 out last 10 home Serie A games vs Fiorentina(2 bigger wins & 2 draws). On paper AC Milan has its most winnable away game till season end vs Parma and should get the vital 3 points for the Champions League zone.