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vicsuna

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About vicsuna

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  • Birthday 06/06/1992

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  1. Huesca vs Eibar: Eibar win Huesca is sitting bottom of the La Liga table with 5 wins 11 draws and 17 losses after 33 games. This is the 2nd time in La Liga history since 3 points for a win and 1 point for a draw system was implemented that a team has those exact stats after Almeria in 10/11 season. Almeria lost the 34th game at home vs Sevilla 0:1 after a red card as I presume there was a lot of pressure on the team to win and keep slim chances to stay in the league. The only other team that had 26 points after 33 league games was Racing Santander in 11/12 season with 4 wins 14 draws and 15 losses after 33 La Liga matches. It is worth noting that Racing won at the start of that season away vs José Luis Mendilibar's Osasuna. Mendilibar is the current coach of Eibar and he lost vs Huesca at home in 18/19. Mendilibar won the away game vs Racing 2:4 in 11/12. The stats of Osasuna in 11/12 and Eibar this year look almost identical - Osasuna 10/6/3 at home & 3/9/7 away vs Eibar 8/5/4 & 1/8/7 away. The only thing missing is more away wins but I think Eibar will upset Huesca. Huesca's current coach Francisco Rodriguez has lost 40 games out of 77 La Liga matches or more than 50% of games. Rodriguez's record with Huesca is 12 losses from 25 games and as Huesca has not managed to stay undefeated for more than 2 home games this season, I see Eibar winning this match. Real Valladolid vs Girona: Real Valladolid win Real Valladolid has won 5 and drew one game vs Girona at home. Girona has lost the last 5 La Liga games and some of them were winnable & now find themselves in the relegation battle. Real Valladolid managed 3 draws and 2 losses in the meantime. Valladolid scored 2 goals in each of the consecutive 2:2 draws vs Getafe and Deportivo Alaves - both teams are still in the mix for European football. Meanwhile, Girona lost their last 2 games vs Celta Vigo & Villareal - giving both struggling teams a lifeline in the relegation battle. Will Girona lose another game vs direct competitor from the relegation zone? I believe so and most probably Real are going to win with just 1 goal difference as 4 of their 5 home wins vs Girona.
  2. In the end I played a double - draw in the Bologna vs Sampdoria game and Udinese to win with 1 goal difference vs Sassuolo. Other games I played in long European accumulator. It is worth noting that Bologna have not lost at home in Serie A vs Sampdoria in more than 15 years - drawing 5 times and winning 4 times ever since. Btw all 11 Serie A games between Udinese & Sassuolo(3/4/4) were either a draw or a win for one of the teams with 1 goal difference. One last spam: Igor Tudor also has 4 wins in charge of Udinese and 75% of them are with 1 goal difference.
  3. Udinese to win vs Sassuolo Sassuolo are in the same 11th position like last season and are all but mathematically confirmed to stay in Serie A next season. Sassuolo’s results vs teams down the table in 18/19 7wins/6draws/3 losses vs 17/18 6wins/6draws/6 losses. 2 of those losses this season happened in recent months away vs relegation battling Empoli and Bologna. Since December’s game vs Frosinone, Sassuolo has not won away with 4 losses & 3 draws. Udinese are on a run of 4 consecutive wins at home and the team has added 7 points to its tally in the 4 games since Igor Tudor is their manager just like the tally from the final 4 matches of Serie A last year when Tudor saved Udinese from the drop zone. This is their most winnable game till end of season and I reckon Udinese are going to snatch a tight victory probably with 1 goal difference Bologna vs Sampdoria to end up as a draw Sampdoria & Bologna have not had a draw in 7 matches or in more than 5 years when Sinisa Mihajlovic was coach of Sampdoria. However, Mihajlovic’s record vs the current manager of Sampdoria Giampolo is 6 draws, 1 win and 2 losses. Bologna are missing their top scorer Santander but he did not really contribute in their recent good run of 3 home wins. A real blow seems to be the suspension of the Dutch left-back Dijks as Bologna has won only 1 out of 12 games when Dijks featured for less than 5 minutes(once a substitute for final 3 minutes and 11 times did not even get one minute). Bologna has drawn 6 of those 12 games and 3 out of 5 at home. It is also worth noting that Bologna’s home record 5/4/7 and Sampdoria’s away record 5/4/6 are almost identical so the match can be very close. Sampdoria are still in the mix for European football next season but their chances are slim and not realistic, so I assume Bologna will be more motivated in the match and only able to get a draw or 1 point due to missing players and coach history. The other main games for the relegation batlle - Cagliari vs Frosinone and Empoli vs SPAL look like unpredictable matches to me. Juventus are probably going to secure the title this weekend but Fiorentina do not give points without a fight this season and Juve’ team spirit may be low after the Champions League loss vs Ajax. I suspect Juve will win with only 1 goal difference like 6 out last 10 home Serie A games vs Fiorentina(2 bigger wins & 2 draws). On paper AC Milan has its most winnable away game till season end vs Parma and should get the vital 3 points for the Champions League zone.
  4. Brighton vs Bournemouth: Brighton -1 Draw Since their last Premiership match in December a 2:0 home win for the cherries, both teams have won same number of points in the league - 12 with 3 wins and 3 draws. Brighton has scored 11 goals and conceded 20 while Bournemouth has 17:33. However, Brighton has played 2 games less than the cherries so have 2 less losses in the Premiership for the same period. Brighton also won away 3:1 vs Bournemouth in the FA Cup and will fancy themselves for a win today, which will give them up to 8 points difference from Cardiff ahead of their midweek match. Brighton has won 4, drew 6 and lost only once at home vs Bournemouth and is yet to win vs the cherries in the Premiership. Brighton has 9 wins this season and 8 of them are with 1 goal difference. Bournemouth has not had a single away draw all season with 12 losses and 4 wins. I reckon this game is either a draw or a narrow Brighton win, but as Bournemouth do not make any ties away this season I believe the seagulls will secure their Premiership spot with a narrow win vs a team playing for nothing till rest of the season.
  5. Girona vs Espanyol: Girona win Girona have only lost 1 game out of 13 games vs bottom 10. Drew 6 times &won 6 times. The loss was at home vs Huesca back in February. Girona have won twice, drew 3 times and lost once at home vs current bottom 10. Espanyol have lost twice vs bottom out of 13 games vs bottom 10,inclusive a 1:3 home loss vs Girona. Drew 5 times and won 6 times. Espanyol have won only once away vs bottom 10, drew 4 times and lost once. However, 5 out of those 6 games were vs current bottom 5. Espanyol lost the only away game vs team between 11th and 15th(3 more such games). The Catalan derby has never finished as a draw out of 6 occasions. Girona has won 4 times and lost 2 times vs Espanyol. Those 4 wins are out of last 5 games. Girona have won 2 out of 3 games in La Liga. Girona have put themselves in a position as second best team in Barcelona even winning the Catalan friendly cup in 2019 vs Barca. The team has been underperforming at home but I reckon the derby will lift the spirits. Girona’s top scorer - Christian Stuani was expcted to miss out the game due to muscular injury but he is named in starting 11 for the derby. This is why my review is so late... hope he is in full shape. Girona are still not out of relegation battle and a win here will assure the team’s position in La Liga. The game vs Espanyol is their most winnable match till season end apart from the 37th home game vs Levante, according to FiveThirtyEight . I doubt Girona will want to stay close to relgation till the very end and this is a clear chance to secure a spot next season for the Spanish top tier league.
  6. Southampton vs Liverpool: Draw I totally agree with @thfc and like to follow his Premiership tips, which are very often on the money. The odds for a draw are too high for reality and I believe bookies are giving too low odds for Liverpool win. Klopp has won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 vs Southampton in all competitions.. It is true that Klopp has won last 3 games vs Southampton in Premiership, but the other 4 games in the league are 3 draws and 1 loss. Klopp's stats at St. Mary's Stadium are 1w/1d/1l in Premiership and 2w/1d/2l in all competitions. Ralph Hasenhüttl has 2 wins/1 draw/3 losses vs top 6 and 2 wins/1 loss(Man City) vs top 6 at home. The market implied probability for Liverpool win is roughly 70% and this is certainly not the true historic probability. Liverpool are not losing games due to good defence and GK, so this is why I like going for outright draw rather than some double chance.
  7. Frosinone won in the craziest way after penalty that was reviewed by VAR for almost 10 minutes and finally a goal in 103rd minute. Anyway, the Sassuolo vs Chievo game looks like a possible draw and Atalanta vs Bologna like goal/goal from the last stats presented by @Magic0024. What do you think?
  8. Frosinone vs Parma: Frosinone to win Gervinho is out for Parma. Gervinho is Parma's top goalscorer with 10 goals in Serie A and has 2 assists, so he has directly contributed to +38% out of all 31 Parma goals in Serie A this season. Parma's most experienced defender Bruno Alves is also out for the game vs Frosinone. Frosinone are the only team without a home win in Serie A this season. Frosinone had 6 home wins in 2015/16 season when they again got relegated after one season in the top tier Italian league. 2 of those home wins were vs the other 2 teams that qualified with Frosinone from Serie B. Frosinone missed the chance to win at home vs Empoli as they were leading 3:2 till 79th minute back in October but game ended 3:3. I think they will take full advantage of Parma's weakened squad. It is also worth noting that the probability for a home win for Frosinone till end of season is highest vs Parma (44%), according to fivethirtyeight. Frosinone had 8 shots on target and 13 shots off target vs SPAL over the weekend. They were unlucky not to get at least 1 point. To be fair they had 3 respectable performances in last 3 home games - 3 narrow losses with 1 goal difference vs SPAL (0:1), vs Torino(1:2), vs Roma (2:3). Parma have nothing to fight for as their chances for relegation are less than 2%, according to fivethirtyeight. Frosinone still have some mathematical chance for survival and their remaining games are winnable. They just need to start winning. I suspect they will go all in in this game.
  9. Sampdoria vs AC Milan: Draw In the last Serie A round there was just 1 draw and previously when that happened in this season the next round had at least 3 draws. This may be explained by the fact that average Serie A round has +2 draws so on average every 2 consecutive rounds have +4 draws. I believe this match is one of the closest this round and fancy the draw. Sampdoria are very hard to beat at home while AC Milan are in better form generally and fighting for every point in the Champions League battle. Gatuso has won every game vs Sampdoria as a coach but I believe Milan will not take the full 3 points after losing vs Inter and facing a team that scored 5 in their last league match. The last 3 games at Sampdoria's home turf between these teams in Serie A ended without a draw and I suspect there will be some reversion to the mean as 19 out of 60 similar matches ended as a draw historically.
  10. Manchester United vs Watford: 1/1 first half/full time. Surprised no one is mentioning this game after official appointment of Solskjaer as Old Trafford will be buzzing. Manchester United have won 9 out of last 10 games vs Watford and 7 of those 9 wins were 1/1 half time/full time(including last 4 games in a row). Manchester Unitet's attack this match is a bit uncertain but have in-form Pogba. Solskjaer has confirmed to official club website that only Darmian, Valencia and Alexis are truly out of this fixture. I am also looking forward as a fan to see the talented Mason Greenwood get some minutes as a striker(29 goals in 29 games or smtg like that for under 18 team). Watford have lost 4 out of 4 away games vs top 6 this season including 5:0 & 3:1 thrashings vs Man City & Liverpool in last 2 away games. I know Manchester United lost 2 in a row & to be fair vs Arsenal away was always going to be a tough match plus team did not have a bit of luck but this was first loss for Ole in 13 Premier League games after 10 wins(8 half time/full time). Anyway, the atmosphere at the Theatre of Dreams should suck the ball in Watford's net today IMO and Spurs are likely to lose points vs Liverpool, so Manchester United will look to win from the start and get back in the mix for top 4.
  11. Angers vs Amiens: Angers win I am looking for a home win on Saturday as the average Ligue 1 round typically has over 4 and closer to 5 home wins out of 10 games. There are no home wins so far this round after 2 games and PSG have a fair chance to win but odds are very low. That leaves a handful of matches and I am willing to back Angers as the team are in top 6 in the form table from last 6 games & Amiens are terrible away.
  12. Bayern Munich vs Liverpool: Bayern win with 1 goal difference Bayern has won with 1 goal difference 5 out of 16 games at home in the Champions League vs English teams. That is exactly 50% of their 10 home wins in the CL vs English teams. Keep in mind sample also includes those 5:1 thrashings vs Arsenal. Bayern has won 6 out of 9 home knockout games(including final vs Chelsea) in the CL vs English teams & again half of those wins or 3 were with 1 goal difference. Liverpool didn't have a single shot on target vs Napoli & PSG away in the group stage. I am not counting Milner's penalty vs PSG... Liverpool have lost their last 5 games in the Champions League that were not played on the Anfield. To make matters worse stats suggest Liverpool are facing Champions League exit after 0-0 home draw against Bayern Munich. 'There have been 22 goalless first games since 2003/04 when the last 16 stage was introduced as the replacement for the old 2nd group stage, with 17 of the 22 sides who played away first making it through.' Liverpool have one of the top defenses in Europe this season but their attack seems one-dimensional and midfield lacking ideas against the big teams. All this makes me think Bayern are going to progress with a narrow win. P.s.: Even the legendary Christmas Day football match between Germany and England during World War 1 ended as a win with 1 goal difference for the Germans
  13. Girona vs Valencia: Valencia win I am looking for an away win on Sunday as the average La Liga round typically has over 2 and closer to 3 away wins out of 10 games. There are no away wins so far this round and Real Madrid have a fair chance to win vs Real Valladolid but I wouldn't back them as the team seems divided. Actually Real Valladolid, Girona and Villarreal all have 12 points from their 12/13/14 home games respectively and share bottom of the home table. But Girona have the worst goal difference(11:18 or -7) at home from those 3 teams. The Catalan team has only 2 home wins, 6 draws and 5 losses. Meanwhile, Valencia have only 1 loss in La Liga since start 2019 (away vs Getafe)... 5 draws as well in 9 games. But a win here will firmly put Valencia in the mix for European places. Girona have found some form lately winning vs Rayo and Real Madrid away plus they beat the Barcelona reserves during the week in the Supercopa de Catalunya. However, Girona's coach Eusebio has lost every single home match out of 3 vs Valencia's manager Marcelino(stats are with various teams). Girona actually won away vs Valencia at a time when Rodrigo was out of form. It is going to be a close game but I suspect motivation will be key for Valencia to come out of this game with full 3 points. Maybe it is worth backing Valencia to win with 1 goal difference.
  14. Newcastle vs Everton: Draw Newcastle will surely miss Sean Longstaff - an academy player nominated for Player of the Month for February. His impact has been huge as Newcastle won 4 out of 7 games when he played plus 80 minutes. They lost by one goal difference vs Chelsea and Spurs away and drew away vs Wolves in that run. He got an injury and got subbed at half time in the last round's loss vs West Ham. Without Longstaff in the starting 11, Newcastle has a record of just 4 wins 6 draws and 11 losses. I do not believe Newcastle will win this one, especially after Mike Ashley has frozen the sale of the club and with him as owner Newcastle have record vs Everton 4/4/11 and 3/1/5 at home. I like backing the draw in this one as Everton were not super dangerous in attack mode vs Liverpool and I see more draws in their upcoming away games. Alternative would be Everton and draw no bet, but I placed a bet on Everton to draw vs Cardiff in last away game and often my bets work in the next away round It is also worth noting that both Newcastle home and Everton away records in 18/19 compared to 17/18 have 3 draws less. Everton have 5 more away games this season and Newcastle have 4 more home matches. P.s. What about that night in Paris?! Very proud of Man Utd as a fan. Best moment since Fergie. Do not understand why bookies still doubt us.
  15. Everton vs Liverpool: Everton+1 Everton surprised me positively the other day vs Cardiff and I am willing to back them up to get at least a point vs Liverpool. Everton did not lose 4 out of 12 games vs top 6 last season and Marco Silva's Watford did not lose in 3 out of 7 matches vs top 6, including a memorable 3:3 at home vs Liverpool. So far this season Everton have managed to get just 1 point from 7 matches vs top 6. I know Everton may upset at least one of the big teams till year end at home and maybe Chelsea or Arsenal are easier matchups, but I think it will mean the world for the team and fans to derail Liverpool's title push. Everton were also unlucky in the first match vs Liverpool and lost a game they could have won due to a silly decision by Pickford in extra time.