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About vicsuna

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 06/06/92
  1. Empoli vs Sassuolo Draw (1:1) Since Giuseppe Iachini was appointed as Empoli manager the Toscanian team has replicated the results of Iachini's Sassuolo from last season when he was also given a job midseason to lift a team from the drop zone. Both teams under Iachini won 3 times by 1 goal margin, drew 3 times and lost 6 matches from his first 12 games in charge. Sassuolo decided to let him go after the season even though Iachini lifted them from the relegation zone to respectable 11th place with 5 wins by 1 goal difference, 5 draws and only 2 losses from the remaining 12 matches. Giuseppe's 13th to 18th games in charge of Sassuolo included 5 draws(4 times 1:1 draws, once 2:2) and one win with 1 goal difference. I doubt Empoli are going to lose only 2 games from the next 12 as they are have terrible away form and face Milan, Juve, Atalanta & Roma away + Napoli at home in those 12 matches. However, Sassuolo won 6 drew 6 and lost 6 games vs teams below them last season & so far this season won 6 drew 4 and lost 1 game vs teams below them(in both cases they are 11th). Empoli has won only 4 out of 17 games vs Sassuolo(3 at home). There have been 3 draws between those teams each 1:1. It is also worth noting that none of those draws occured in Serie A as Empoli and Sassuolo have faced 7 times in the top tier Italian league without a single draw. I think Empoli are not going to lose this game as they have been a solid home side. If they win, then it may be with 1 goal difference but odds are low given head to head stats. I like backing 1:1 draw as Empoli is yet to show stability and have worst form from last 6 matches in Serie A.
  2. Ligue 1 & 2 Predictions > Feb 15th - 18th

    Angers vs Nice Draw Head-to-head stats suggest a tie is most likely outcome as 6 out of 9 Ligue 1 matches between Angers and Nice ended as a draw. 3 out of 4 Ligue 1 games at Angers's turf vs Nice also were ties. Angers has 6 draws from the last 10 rounds and Nice has 5.
  3. Manchester United vs PSG First of all I have to admit I am a passionate Man Utd fan so this view may be biased. PSG are a fake team without European traditions and no matter what Mou said last year after Seville, Manchester United are the most successful English team in Europe the last 20 years. Since PSG got the Arab money they have been in England 6 times for Champions League games. They won only once, drew 2 times and lost 3 times. It is worth noting that the only time PSG visited Manchester (vs City) they left the competition and lost that game. Meanwhile, Manchester United has won 8 out of 9 (1 draw) Champions League home games vs French teams. I understand most of those teams were 'farmers', but PSG's squad is not going to be with some of its top players. I see Manchester United winning half time/full time as Ole has tried to kill games from the start. I also reckon PSG are going to lose with difference like they did vs Real Madrid last year when they were considered favorites again. Too much pressure on PSG as Champions League is their real target for the season but team lacks depth. Manchester United has more depth especially in attack and midfield + a regular GK. What's more, Man Utd are the most in-form team from last 10 games from all 16 teams in the competition. P.s.: A wild card bet on the game could be to place money for a penalty for Manchester United as PSG have given away 5 penalties in their 10 Champions League away losses since Arab money. VAR will also debut in Champions League.
  4. La Liga Predictions > Feb 1st - 4th

    Levante vs Getafe: Levante -1 Draw Levante won their last 2 games vs Getafe with one goal difference, including an away win earlier this season. Getafe have only 2 away losses out of 11 games all season vs Real & Atletico Madrid(both 2:0). Getafe had 7 losses on the road last season and 4 of those were with 1 goal difference, while Levante had 7 home wins in 2017/18 and 6 of them were with 1 goal difference. Levante has won only once at home with 1 goal difference this season vs Deportivo Alaves - a team in 5th place just one point above Getafe. The visitors' two first-choice centre-backs are suspended for this game and they will miss especially Djene - highest market value player in the squad according to transfermarkt. Djene has missed only 1 game whole La Liga season and that was a home loss with 1 goal difference vs Valencia. All-time head-to-head record favours a draw but recent 10 games show 4 Levante wins 4 draws and 2 Getafe wins. I expect a tight match and narrow victory for Levante. La Liga and Segunda Division are two of the leagues with highest percentage of matches that end with 1 goal difference. I also agree that Atletico Madrid will win vs Real Betis but feel like Villareal will win vs Espanyol, who are also missing key centre backs.
  5. Premier League Predictions > Feb 2nd - 6th

    Burnley vs Southampton Draw Last away game of Southampton vs Leicester I placed a bet on draw and was a bit unlucky.. However, I also overlooked the fact that nearly 50% or 7 out of 15 Southampton's draws last season were versus teams from bottom third of the table(bottom 7 including them). Those 7 draws came from 12 games and so far this year Southampton has 3 draws out of 7 games vs the current bottom third. What's more, Southampton & Burnley have highest number of draws(7/13 and 6/13)in a table of the games between 5 out of those current bottom 7 teams(without Cardiff and Fulham) if we count the games from last season. Hope you understand what I mean as for some reason I can not add the screenshot of transfermarkt own table from my phone. Both teams have not lost since start of 2019 and have 2 draws out of 4 games, so I reckon a draw is most likely outcome for this game. I also believe Fulham will not lose and may even win vs Crystal Palace without Zaha. Crystal Palace have won only 1(vs Leicester at home 1:0) out of 12 games in last 2 seasons without Zaha, 1 out of 3 this season and 1 out of 6 since Roy Hodgson. All other games were losses! Fulham are the only team without an away win this season and it is worth noting that last team to fail to win a single away game for whole season was Hull in 2009/10. Fulham have 7 more away games and this seems to me the most winnable matchup especially after the morale boosting comeback the other day.
  6. Empoli vs Genoa Draw Last week I laid the case why Giuseppe Iachini's Empoli will draw vs Cagliari and Genoa. Away draw vs Cagliari already happened and I had to play this one as well. Have it as the final game for 2 accumulators, so any thoughts may simply be confirmation bias Anyway, head to head data shows 4 draws out of 9 Serie A games & 2 draws out of 4 home Empoli games vs Genoa in Serie A. Giuseppe Iachini has 3 draws and 3 wins with 1 goal difference at home vs Genoa(no losses). It is worth noting that those 6 games were with different teams and not with Empoli. Genoa had 5 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses out of 19 away Serie A games last season(without Piatek) & 1 win, 1 draw and 7 losses this season. If they replicate their away stats from 2017/18, Genoa may get 4 more draws out of their remaining 10 Serie A away games. Bologna failed to win at home vs Frosinone and did not put Empoli in the relegation zone. 1 point for Empoli & Genoa may increase both teams' survival chances and leave them 4/5 & 7/8 points above Bolognia/Frosinone. The stats seem to show that there is 40-50% chance in this tight game to end as draw, so there is some value in this bet at odds of +3.
  7. La Liga Predictions > Jan 26th - 28th

    Espanyol vs Real Madrid Espanyol have lost 8 of their last 9 La Liga matches with the latest one (3:0) coming on Monday away vs Eibar. I watched that game and Espanyol were really poor at the back as their most regular centre back David Lopez is injured. What's more, the experienced back-up Naldo limped off that match and Oscar Duarte is also sidelined. Espanyol will have to play 21 year old Lluis Lopez from Espanyol 2 and the defender has a total of 180 minutes for the first team - all in the last week as he played vs Eibar and in the home draw vs Real Betis for Copa del Rey. Toni Kroos should return for Real Madrid and the team has 7 wins in 10 La Liga matches with Solari as manager. Real Madrid has also won 9 out of the last 10 games vs Espanyol. Even though that single loss was last year away without Ronaldo, I just believe Real Madrid will outplay the inexperienced defence of Espanyol and win the game.
  8. La Liga Predictions > Jan 26th - 28th

    After half of the season per round there are 4.15 home wins/3.2 draws/2.65 away wins. The last 2 seasons saw 4.72hw/2.26d/3.02aw; 4.76hw/2.34d/2.9aw. I assume there will be a reversion to the mean and more home wins in the second half of the season. One team that has underperformed at home is Real Sociedad with 2 home wins out of 9 games, leading to the appointment of Imanol Alguacil. The former coach of Real Sociedad B was also used as a temporary manager at the end of last season recording 100% win rate at home, including a 3:0 win vs Atletico Madrid. Those 4 home wins were all 1/1 Half Time/Full Time. If it was not for an own goal in the extra time of the first half in the recent 3:2 home win vs Espanyol, Alguacil's 5 home La Liga games in charge of Real Sociedad would have been 1/1 HT/FT. The team is yet to lose a game since his appointment this season, including a memorable 2:0 away win vs Real Madrid, a comeback from 2:0 down for an away draw vs Rayo Vallecano & 2 draws vs Real Betis that unfortunately led to the end of Sociedad's Copa Del Rey season. Real Sociedad had 9 1/1 HT/FT home wins last season out of 10 home wins. Huesca have 5 away losses HT/FT this season (highest number in the league) and only 4 points from their away games, so they sit bottom of the table. In the last 3 seasons the team at the bottom of the table did not get more than 6 away points. I am confident Real Sociedad will win at home vs Huesca and I am tempted for win 1/1 HT/FT. What other home wins do you fancy this week?
  9. One of my favourite Italian teams to bet on is Empoli since the appointment of Giuseppe Iachini. He was appointed for game #12 to help them get out of the drop zone just like he was signed by Sassuolo for game #15 last season when they were really struggling. In his first 5 Serie A games in charge of both teams he had 3 wins by 1 goal margin, 1 away loss vs Fiorentina and 1 away score draw. Giuseppe Iachini's next 5 games for Sassuolo included: 2 losses with difference(7:0 vs Juve and 3:0 vs Atalanta), 1:0 loss away to Genoa and two home draws(0:0 vs Cagliari and 1:1 vs Torino). Sassuolo decided to let him go after the season with a record of 8 wins/8 draws/8 losses. Giuseppe's 6th to 10th games for Empoli have started with 3 losses: 2 with difference(3:0 vs Torino, 2:4 vs Sampdoria) and 0:1 home loss vs Inter. If he wants to save Empoli, he should get some points soon and next 2 games vs Cagliari away & Genoa at home could be draws based on what he did with Sassuolo. Put simply, Cagliari vs Empoli Draw. I also believe Roma will win vs Torino. Walter Madzari has the highest number of losses precisely vs Roma 12 losses out of 23 matches with the different teams he has managed. Madzari has lost 7/11 games away vs Roma and the last 2 games in charge of Torino vs Roma(1 at home this season and away last season). Torino are yet to lose an away game this season and what better team to crack them than Roma,who have 14 home wins vs Torino out of 17 games.
  10. Manchester United vs Brighton 2:0 Correct Score @ 6.5 Manchester United won 3 out of 19 home games last season with 2:0 and 5 out of 38 games. The most common score was 1:0 with 6/38 and 4/19 home games. You could say Manchester United is a more attacking team under Solskjaer and should see more 2:0 wins than 1:0 especially against sides like Brighton. It is worth noting that last year Manchester United won at home 1:0 in the Premier League and 2:0 in the FA Cup vs Brighton. Manchester United are playing their 11th game at Old Trafford and none of the home games so far this season ended 2:0(there are 2 such away wins in 12 matches one with Solskjaer in charge). The bookies see this as the most likely correct score giving it the lowest odds. Brighton lost 7/19 away games last season 2:0 and 9/38 games total. They have had 3 such away losses this season in 11 games(one vs Man City and none at home). Manchester United have 2 wins(1 vs Reading at home in FA Cup)with 2:0 correct score with Solskjaer as manager making it the most common score in his 6 games. They have not conceded a goal in the last 2 Premier League games and all of the last 3 matches. Maybe backing win to nill is also worth it as De Gea is back to his best form and Brighton are notoriously weak away team.
  11. Leicester vs Southampton Draw Leicester drew at home vs all bottom 4 sides last season including Southampton that marginally escaped relegation(only West Brom draw at home was without Claude Puel as coach). Ralph Hasenhüttl was brought in charge to make Southampton an uncomfortable side and increase their chances for survival in the Premier League.He is best known for leading RB Leipzig to a second-placed finish in the Bundesliga in 2016/17 and Klopp-like gegen pressing style. What's more, Ralph Hasenhüttl is also a survival specialist as he successfully lifted 2 teams from relegation zone to safety in his first season in charge. His away record during those 2 seasons had 10 draws in 21 matches: 1 win 3 draws 5 losses Aalen Bundesliga 3 2010/11; 4 wins 7 draws 1 loss Ingolstadt Bundesliga 2 2013/14. The odds for Southampton to be relegated are 11/2 even though they are still in the bottom 3, which tells me the bookies reckon they will find the points for survival with the help of Ralph Hasenhüttl. He seems to be happy to get a draw: "They are a strong team and a challenge for us but we are going there to get three points because we need to come out of this relegation zone so we have to get some wins or draws. If it's a draw we take it, if it’s a win it’s better." Southampton's away record of 3 wins 8 draws and 8 losses last season and 2 wins 2 draws 7 losses this season(1/1/1 since new coach) makes me think they will most likely get one point vs the sketchy Foxes.
  12. La Liga > Sun 26th May

    Re: La Liga > Sun 26th May Athletic Bilbao - Levante Athletic Bilbao to win @ 4/7 This game is between two teams that have virtually nothing to fight for, but you can expect Athletic Bilbao to want to win their final home game and end the season on a high note. Levante are without a win in their last 10 away games(only 4 draws) and they won only 2 points in the 7 Primera Division games since April(they played Real M and Barca + the bottom 4 teams and Rayo). Athletic Bilbao on the other hand won their last 2 games and are without a loss in their last 5 Primera Division games. They have won 9 out of 17 games(or 66% of their points)against bottom half teams ranking them 6th in the league against bottom half teams, and 5 out of 8 home games against bottom half teams. Athletic Bilbao have injury problems only in defense missing Borja Ekiza and the 18-year-old Aymeric Laporte(they haven't scored goals played in 24 and 15 games), while Levante are missing the old experienced guns Juanfran(defender-29games-3assists) and Jose Barkero(midfielder-28games-5goals-1assist). In the last 5 meetings between Athletic Bilbao and Levante at San Mames, Bilbao has 5 victories. I expect the new Bilbao star Anduiz to shine once more and Athletic Bilbao to extend their recent good form with a comfortable win against Levante, who lack composure in the second half of the season and in their away games. btw anyone thinking to back Real Sociedad against Real Madrid @ 6/4 looks tempting, I am thinking about it as Sociedad need to win this game to play in CL next season, won against Barcelona at home and play really consistent against the top half teams(10 wins from 17 games third in the league after Real M and Barca). Real seem to me vulnerable after this terrible season and as Mourinho goes away. They have also lost 4 out of 8 away games against top half teams. Critical is if Raphale Varane and Sergio Ramos make it for the game and if Ronaldo starts... Carlos Vela is suspended for Sociedad though and he has 14 goals and 9 assists in 33 games. Tricky game.. I am open to critical opinions :)
  13. Turkey > Super Lig > 2012-13

    Re: Turkey > Super Lig > 2012-13 Tnx for the update Fedar. I wasn't sure of the Turkey's league system, last year there were playoffs as far as I remember and I was more asking for a question. I didn't bet the game.
  14. Bundesliga > Sat 18th May

    Re: Bundesliga > Sat 18th May If anyone watched Freiburg - Schalke really good game imo, Freiburg went down after as the commentator said ''a Cristiano Ronaldo type of shot outside of the box'' by Draxler. Freiburg equalized just 8 minutes after the start of the second half and just as the tides were turning that mistake that is going to change the game I spoke about happened. Jones shot and just as the ball was going out Hohn cleared in into Schuster's chin and it bounced in :D What a goal to decide the last Champions League spot in Bundesliga after that there was no turning back for Freiburg. The game ended under 3.5 as expected. Btw I guess Mainz are a team just for draws :D
  15. Bundesliga > Sat 18th May

    Re: Bundesliga > Sat 18th May oops my bad. I think the game analysis is generally ok.. The most interesting one in the last round and direct game between competitors. Definetly worth watching it. + one more pick from me: Stuttgart - Mainz Stuttgart to win @ 1/1 Stuttgart will play on the DFB Pokal final against Bayern Munich on first of June and I guess it is fair to say that the logic here is roughly the same like the Bayern and Dortmund games: they will play to win and be in rhythm for the final. Lately they have picked up form winning 3, drawing 1 and losing 2 games since Aprl. All of those wins were against top half teams + last game was 2:1 against Schalke.(the losses were against bottom half teams like Augsburg and Furt though). Mainz on the other hand have a single win in 14 games since February, with 8 draws.. Before that they were 5th and now they are 12th. In their last 6 games though they lost 4 and drew 2. The big blow here are the misses for Mainz: top scorer Adam Szalai(29 games, 13 goals, 3 assists), their class striker Ivan Klasnisc is out of the pitches for a long time, defenders with one assist each Bo Svenson with 25 game and Jan Kirchoff with 18 games, + midfielder Elkin Sotot with 27 games(1 goal, 2 assists). For Stuttgart the only real miss is the 20 year old star Antonio Rudiger(defender-16 games), who is suspended, and maybe the long injury of Cacau who hasn't played since 2012. In previous encounters at home Stuttgart has won 5 out of 6 games, and I expect them to win this game despite their worst home form in 7 years.