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vicsuna

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About vicsuna

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  • Birthday 06/06/1992

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  1. Everton vs Watford: HT/FT Draw/Everton Burned my fingers last week with Everton but willing to try my luck again. Everton are the team with most Half Time/Full Time Draw/Wins at home in the each of the last 2 seasons 7 in 17/18 and 6 in 18/19. This means 13 out of their last 20 wins at home in the Premiership ended in such a fashion or more than a third out of 38 games. Everton had the most draws at half time both at home (10) and in all games (21) from all Premiership teams last season. They also won more than 50% of their home games last season and 10 out of 12 games vs Watford at home. Odds for that bet are generous above 4.5, so implied probability is less than 25% and I see value here. A slow start and Everton win is what I am looking for in this tight match.
  2. Mallorca vs Eibar: Draw 8 out of 19 away games last season ended as a draw for Eibar. Mallorca had 3 friendlies vs La Liga sides in the last month and did not win any of those games - ties vs Getafe & Real Valladolid, losing vs Levante. Eibar’s coach Jose Luis Mendilibar has faced Mallorca 9 times in La Liga before, recording 5 draws vs that team, including ties in last 4 matches. Since Mendilibar’s appointment in July 2015 Eibar are the team with most away draws in La Liga - 24 out of 76. The promoted sides have drawn 7 out of last 12 opening La Liga matches. This is going to be the first game between Mallorca and Eibar in La Liga.
  3. Charlton vs Stoke: Draw The first round of Championship matches ended with just 1 draw out of 12 games. Looking at last season's 3.5 draws per round and 17/18's +3.2 draws per round, I expect reversion to the mean and some draws this round. Stoke had the most draws last season with 22 ties out of 46 games and 57% draw rate from away games or 13 out of 23. Stoke's away games vs bottom 7 last season all ended as draws, including ties with newly promoted Wigan and Rotherham. In fact Stoke drew 50% of their games vs newly promoted sides(+ Blackburn) last season. Stoke are the favourites in this match but they only managed 3 wins out of 22 games in the Championship this calendar year. Stoke had 11 draws out of those 22 matches and 8 losses. No wonder that bet365 are giving lowest odds (3.2) for a draw from whole round exactly on this match. Charlton may have won in first round as they were more clinical with more shots on target from less shots and less possession than Blackburn, but no newly promoted side has won their first two matches in Championship since 11/12 season when Brighton and Southampton achieved that(Southampton even managed to qualify to the Premiership in that season).
  4. Crystal Palace vs Everton: Everton to win Selhurst Park is the smallest Premiership stadium in London and typically teams visiting Crystal Palace have a walk in the park. Last season Palace didn’t score a goal in front of their own fans until the end of October and they didn’t win at home until December. They only scored 19 goals in their own ground all season and five of them (26%) came in their 5-3 win over Bournemouth on the final day of the season. Crystal Palace have won only 1 game out of 10 matches at home in the Premiership vs Everton and that happened 25 years ago. Everton won 5 games and the other 4 matches at Selhurst Park ended as ties. Roy Hodgson is the current favourite to be the first sacked manager in the Premiership and he is facing one of his least favourite opponents in the first round of the season as Everton have beaten teams led by Hodgson 10 out of 17 times. Palace's player of 18/19 season - Wan Bissaka went to Manchester United, Michy Batshuayi returned to Chelsea and their star upfront Zaha wanted to force a move out of the club till deadline day. Lack of incoming quality transfers with only 7.6 million EUR spent and Gary Cahill coming for free suggests Palace may fall short of last year's results. Meanwhile, Everton reinforced almost all positions of their squad and only lost 1 key player - Idrissa Guye, who may have been very good defensively but some pundits reckon he did not add anything to the team's attacking play. Everton did manage to replace Guye with the defensive midfielder Gbambin from Mainz that can even score goals and added one of Europe's hottest young talents - Moise Kean from Juventus. All in all it seems justified that the odds for Everton have shortened from 2.6 to 2.37 on bet365 since @StevieDay1983 opened this topic few weeks ago and I am happy to back them as well.
  5. Senegal vs Algeria Since the start of the new millennium there have been 10 African cup of nations finals 5 ended as draws & decided by penalties and 5 ended with a win with just 1 goal difference. Basically it is 50/50 whether game ends as draw in full time or one of the teams wins with a margin of 1 goal. It is difficult to pick a side in this game. Senegal are generally the better team but Koulibaly won't play and they already lost vs Algeria 1:0 in the group stage. This was the only goal Senegal conceded so far in the tournament while Algeria have only conceded a goal in the quarterfinal and the semifinal. I will bet that one of the teams wins on penalties and draw/draw first half/second half.
  6. Madagascar vs DR Congo: Draw DR Congo are the bookies' favourites but they face the unbeaten side of Madagascar making their debut at the tournament. DR Congo hold an all-time African Cup of Nations record of 20 wins, 23 draws and 29 losses from 72 matches. They had one 4:0 win and two 2:0 losses in the group stage of the cup. Law of averages calls for a draw in this one.
  7. I truly believe Manchester United will finish in top 4 this season and the odds of 6/5 seem worth a punt. Ole is doing smart transfers of hungry players that have the potential to grow and enhance the team. I don't like the fact that Manchester United is giving away contract renewals so easily... for example recently awarded Phil Jones with contract extension till 2023 but I guess they do not want to lose players for free. Even if Pogba goes to Juve or Real, I see the team better off this year as football is a weak link sport and Man United have already improved two of their weakest spots - RB and RW. Tuanzebe may play as CB alongside Lindeloff if no one else is signed but most probably there will be some quality central defender signing with the funds from the almost certain sale of Lukaku. Arsenal and Chelsea look like a shadow of themselves, so unless there is some surprise team challenging the top 6 teams I reckon Manchester United will have just enough to edge in Champions League football again.
  8. As a Manchester United fan I am hoping Aaron Wan Bissaka's transfer gets finalized given the need for quality right back. Ashley Young is too old and the whole defence needs a refresh but AWB's transfer from Crystal Palace seems as a done deal and the bookies give odds of 7/20 tops.
  9. My money is on the draw Chelsea are the favourites but Emery is the Europa league specialist. One thing I noticed in the head-to-head stats is the high number of draws between Arsenal & Chelsea on Wednesdays. Typically Wednesday is a cup or European game and I think it is a good sample. Since Abramovich took over, Chelsea and Arsenal have 4 draws and one 2:1 win each. That is 66% draw rate. Historically 50% or 7 out 14 games between the two teams on Wednesdays. 30 out of all 101 games between Chelsea and Arsenal ended as a draw or less than 30%
  10. Barcelona vs Valencia: Barcelona-1 Draw The Catalans are without Dembele and Suarez but Vidal's attacking presence and some magic trick from Messi may lead to narrow win over Valencia. Marcelino has never won vs Barca with 14 losses from 20 games. Since July 2017 when both Valverde and Marcelino were appointed by their current clubs Barca has 3 wins vs Valencia and 3 draws. 2 of those wins were with 1 goal difference.
  11. Alaves vs Girona: Alaves -1 Draw Girona are a team losing by one goal in roughly 1/3rd of La Liga matches - 11 out of 37 matches and 4 out of 18 away games. Girona is practically in Segunda Division and topscorer Stuani will not play vs Alaves. The Uruguayan has scored 19 goals or 52% of Girona's total La Liga goals. Manager Eusebio cried after loss vs Levante and apologised to everyone involved with the club but he is widely expected to be sacked and most of Girona's best players to be sold on a discount after relegation. Only Betis and Leganes's wins by 1 goal difference at home are higher percentage from total home wins than Alaves' 83% out of 6 home games. Alaves has only won 6 out of 18 home games, losing 4 times and drawing 8 games. Alaves has not won at home since 11 February and will try to finish strongly the season in front of home crowd after missing European football. The team has won only 2 out of 10 home La Liga games in 2019 Alaves has already confirmed that Abelardo will not be manager of the team next season.After season and a half, in which the team has gone from the relegation zone last season to touch the European places this year, the time has come to separate the paths of club and coach after not reaching an agreement to renew his contract for the next season. The manager wants to say goodbye to the home crowd with a victory that leaves a good taste and the team with 50 points. Most importantly Alaves can be higher up the table and get paid more from TV rights & La Liga revenues. Last Alaves home game vs Girona in Copa del Rey ended 2:2 after Girona equalizer in the 96th minute. Head-to-head stats show that only 1 out of 14 games between Alaves and Girona ended with more than 1 goal difference. All 4 of Alaves' wins vs Girona were with 1 goal difference. Bookies give lowest odds in whole round of matches that this game will be decided by 1 goal. I am backing the home side to win it with 1 goal difference as I can not see a miraculous Girona win without Stuani.
  12. Cagliari vs Lazio: Draw Lazio's defeat vs Atalanta last week has left them without a realistic chance for Champions League spot and the team's focus is now on the Coppa Italia Final on 15 May. Lazio will be without their star man in midfield - Milinković-Savić and I reckon they will have a hard time controlling the tempo of the game vs Cagliari. Cagliari lost in injury time vs Napoli after a controversial VAR handball penalty and the president of the team was very disappointed stressing that Cagliari fights for every point. The team needs one point to confirm their Serie A spot mathematically. Cagliari has drawn all of their home games vs teams outside of top 4 till 10th. Cagliari has also drawn their last 2 home matches vs Lazio.
  13. Liverpool vs Barcelona: Draw/Barcelona Half time/Full time Everything about Liverpool & Barcelona injuries/ fitness has been said already and I see Spanish side as more likely to win. Messi made the difference in first game and he is the bookies favourite for this year's Golden Ball, so I prefer mainly looking at Barca's historic stats with him. Messi has won 7 times in the Champions League vs English teams in England or even 8 if you count the Wembley final vs Manchester United. Messi has lost 5 matches and drew 3 times in Champions League games played in England. Nearly 50% historic probability for Barca win while bookies give close to 35%. Messi has won 4/5 out of 15/16 matches away vs English teams draw/Barca half time/Full time(second number is if you count the Wembley final), including a similar win last time he played at Anfield in 2007. That gives close to 30% historic probability compared to roughly 15% implied odds. Barca won last 2 games vs Liverpool at Anfield Draw/Barca HT/FT. I see a tight first half maybe even 1:1 then Barca can catch Liverpool on the brea, especially with the pace of Dembele who had 3 big chances for less than 10 minutes in first game. Liverpool also lost Champions League final vs Real Madrid in a similar fashion last year without Salah for most of the match. I see more value in backing Draw/Barca HT/FT than an outright win for Barca as historic and implied probability demonstrates.
  14. Huesca vs Valencia: Draw Zero draws in current La Liga round compared to average of +2 draws per round and I look for a tie in the last match this weekend (Real Valladolid are leading 1:0 at the break vs Athletic Bilbao in penultimate game..). Valencia has highest number of draws in the league - 16 out of 35 or +45%. Meanwhile, Huesca drew 5 out of last 6 matches and has total of 12 draws this season. Both teams can realistically achieve their goals (out of drop zone/Champions League) if they can win every one of their last 3 remaining games, so they both have everything to play for. But I suspect Huesca and Valencia are going to cancel each other.
  15. Napoli vs Cagliari: Napoli/Napoli HT/FT Only 1 home win in this Serie A round and 2 games remain, where the hosts are the clear favorites. Well, Cagliari is pretty bad away from home and has highest number of Loss/Loss Half Time/Full Time away games this season (10). Napoli has won 8 out of last 10 matches vs Cagliari in Serie A, including HT/FT wins in last two games in Naples. P.s.: In final 30 minutes before the kick off the odds for Napoli/Napoli 3/4 & Cagliari/Napoli less than 20/1 are shortening according to oddschecker.