Premier League Predictions > Jan 1st - 3rd

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

The first Premier League fixtures of the 2019 calendar are coming up this week. It's been a tough festive schedule but we're treated to a potential title decider when Manchester City welcome Liverpool to the Etihad Stadium on Thursday evening. Check the odds and ratings then let us know your tips for these matches.

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[newjack]

I think odds on pool are too high. They dropped a bit last few day but game day i'm seeing them closer to 3 or possibly even sub 3. Yes City is a tough opponent but i cant help but feel value on +0,5 pool currently sitting at 1.9

[StevieDay1983]

5 hours ago, newjack said:

I think odds on pool are too high. They dropped a bit last few day but game day i'm seeing them closer to 3 or possibly even sub 3. Yes City is a tough opponent but i cant help but feel value on +0,5 pool currently sitting at 1.9

Yeah, especially when you consider that Klopp has had the better of Guardiola over recent encounters. I think it's 3 wins for Liverpool and 1 draw in the last 4 meetings. However, it was only in September, 2017 that City destroyed Liverpool 5-0 at the Etihad Stadium. I think we can all agree that Liverpool are a lot more solid now though.

[EuroDream]

Bournemouth - Watford X2

I am again against Bournemouth, I am not so confident they will lose but I am confident they will not win so double chance on X2 with some poor odds with high probability of going through. In the first game Watford lost 0:4 but they got a red card in 1st HT and still the statistics didn't go that much on the Bournemouth side.

Newcastle - Man Utd AWAY WIN

Newcastle is obviously not an easy opponent considering they were 0:2 up in the first game between them where Man Utd grinded out a win in last minutes but situation in Man Utd changed and they play confidently in last rounds. Newcastle lost at home to all top sides and almost all with 1:2...I could imagine it happening again.

Man City - Liverpool BTTS

Two strong opponents so I expect goals from both sides with most probable outcome 1:1. Liverpool with slightly better defense but I believe Man City has slightly better offense so it comes down to before mentioned result. I realized that Man City concedes at least a goal all the way to their CL game against Lyon.

For the rest of the games I would have considered Huddersfield to grab a win against Burnley but one of their best players Mooy is injured so no bet just like West Ham who also has lots of missings.

[waynecoyne]

Liverpool odds look too big to me also, I will try:

Liverpool 13/5 4 pts

Liverpool and btts at 9/2 4 pts

Liverpool 3-1 and 3-2 at 25/1 and 28/1 both 1 pt

all with bet 365

[malabgd]

Everton FC v Leicester City

Everton FC: Ademola Lookman (11/0 f, doubtful)

Leicester City: Jonny Evans (9/0 d), Wes Morgan (15/0 d)(both doubtful), Matty James (0/0 m), Daniel Amartey (9/0 m)

 

Arsenal v Fulham FC

Arsenal: Mesut Ozil (13/3 m), Nacho Monreal (10/1 d)(both doubtful), Henrikh Mkhitaryan (14/4 m), Hector Bellerin (17/0 d), Konstantinos Mavropanos (0/0 d), Rob Holding (10/0 d), Emile Smith Rowe (0/0 m), Danny Welbeck (8/1 f)

Fulham FC: Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa (11/0 m, doubtful), Alfie Mawson (13/0 d), Calum Chambers (14/0 d, loan from Arsenal)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[thfc]

@StevieDay1983 as a spurs fan, i'm wary of the Cardiff game given your reasonable home form and good recent results.  That said, spurs have been excellent away from home, and we do tend to pick up a result after a loss.  However, I can't tip spurs on the outrights at the current prices.  Spurs also have a tight turnaround with an FA cup game on Friday, although I can't imagine many first 11 players will play in that one, especially as the league cup semi vs Chelsea follows on the Tuesday.

I haven't found anything I fancy on this game, but i'll be interested in your take on the game and whether you fancy Cardiff to get something out of the game.

  

[newjack]

Man oh man, i'm a little discouraged by that last 0:0 result in city/pool game, but i firmly believe we're in for a goal fest. I just can't see under 2,5 in this one. Thoughts?

[StevieDay1983]

Cardiff vs Tottenham

My first preview of this New Year's Day schedule of games will try to build on what @thfc has said but I think he's got it nailed on. It's Cardiff at home to Tottenham in a 5:30pm kick-off at the Cardiff City Stadium and I'm not as optimistic as other Bluebirds fans are heading into this one.

Cardiff picked up their first away win of the season. Despite what the highlights showed it was a game I felt we deserved to win. We generally dealt with Leicester quite comfortably and only had ourselves to blame for not scoring the decisive goal earlier. It's a win that has solidified our position in 16th place to remain 3 points clear outside the relegation zone.

Tottenham suffered a surprising 3-1 loss at home to Wolves in their last game. It wasn't a result many people saw coming with Spurs leading 1-0 with just 18 minutes left. It's a defeat that now leaves Mauricio Pochettino's side 9 points off the title pace and needing something special to get back into the title race.

This could be a harsh bump back to reality for Cardiff. Our home record is decent but Manchester United exposed us on home territory just as Manchester City did earlier in the season. We simply can't cope when teams pile forward on our back line. We might score on the counter but for every goal or two we'll get we'll concede 3-4 goals when teams do that.

Pochettino will be looking for a reaction from his players. I'm not saying Tottenham will turn us over but I'm not expecting to come away from the Cardiff City Stadium having witnessed us take anything from this game. This is a very good Tottenham side and I can see them grinding out a 1-0 or 2-0 victory.

On a personal note, it's a poignant moment for me. I had a season ticket for Cardiff from the 1999/2000 season when we were in the old Division 4 right up until the season we first got promoted to the Premier League. A combination of the re-brand and having my first child all came together to prevent me from renewing my season ticket for that first Premier League season. For one reason or another, usually family or work related commitments, I've never managed to see Cardiff live in the Premier League. Tomorrow, that changes. Here's hoping we can take all three points! May the best team win, @thfc!

Tottenham to Win to Nil @ 2.53 with MarathonBet

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 2.20 with Betfair

[Mindfulness]

51 minutes ago, newjack said:

Man oh man, i'm a little discouraged by that last 0:0 result in city/pool game, but i firmly believe we're in for a goal fest. I just can't see under 2,5 in this one. Thoughts?

1.69 for over 2.5 in said game doesn't exactly look like price error of the century to me. You could make a case for the price to be a bit shorter but clearly the markets already favour overs here.

We know City will go for the 3pts, Liverpool's mentality and approach to the game will be the most interesting factor.

City looked very vulnerable to the counter-press against Southampton, Liverpool are likely to be a lot more ruthless with said method.

I still don't like over 2.5 at current prices but I'm sure they'll be some folks arguing it should be 1.49 and that it's time for the biggest bank burner of the season.

I too am concerned by this previous 0-0 you speak of.

@StevieDay1983 Is it time to dust off the punters lounge manuscripts and take heed of the ancient wisdom that is 'two team repel theory' ???

 

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

Everton conceded at least 1 goal in each of their last 7 matches in Premier League.
26% of Leicester City's conceded goals occurred in the first 15 minutes in Premier League.
Arsenal have scored in each of their last 19 matches in Premier League.
Cardiff City have scored 42% of their goals after the 75th minute in Premier League.
Tottenham have scored in each of their last 10 matches in Premier League.

You can find interesting 53 Football Betting Streaks for 01.01.2019 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-01-01-2019-12850

[newjack]

Well over2,5&bts at 1.9ish looks fairly good bet, it hits more often than odds suggest imo.

[RICHY1234]

Pls am new into this site ..concerning the prediction is straight win or double chance

[Gedkip]

10 Selections
Everton - Leicester City
Draw(3.25) 1-1 FT

Arsenal - Fulham
Arsenal(1.35) 2-0 FT

Cardiff City - Tottenham
Tottenham(1.46) 1-2 FT

Bournemouth - Watford
Bournemouth(2.70) 3-0 FT

Chelsea - Southampton
Chelsea(1.28) 3-1 FT

Huddersfield Town - Burnley
Draw(3.15) 0-0 FT

West Ham - Brighton
West Ham(1.97) 1-0 FT

Wolves - Crystal Palace
Draw(3.25) 1-1 FT

Newcastle Utd - Manchester Utd
Draw(4.00) 2-2 FT

Manchester City - Liverpool
Manchester City(2.08) 3-1 FT

[Neubs]

I´m on a Double here today.

I will go with the Fav´s and bet on Wins from Arsenal and Spurs.

Both with MUST WIN´s today, i think both Coaches want the win´s and they have in my opinion perfect Opponents.

Both teams can rotate at Weekend in FA Cup, so i think today Gunners and Spurs will field strong (maybe strongest) possible Starting XI. Spurs will face Cardiff, where i personal think they are to weak in Offensive, to make trouble in Spurs defensive.

[StevieDay1983]

7 hours ago, RICHY1234 said:

Pls am new into this site ..concerning the prediction is straight win or double chance

Sorry, Richy, what predictions are you talking about?

@Mindfulness, it's New Year's Day so a good time to dust off a lot of things! It's never too early to re-introduce the two team repel theory.

I'm about to head off to the Cardiff game and I'm now more nervous than I was last night. Entered the official "fearing the worst" stage of being a football fan.

[Mindfulness]

Wolverhampton Wanderers V Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace +0.50 AH @ 1.89 Matchbook

Fairly standard value play in my view, I respect the fact that Wolves are in a good moment but Palace could prove to be awkward opposition here.

We know that Palace struggle at home if teams sit back against them but away they are more dangerous. I expect Wolves to be expansive and play an open and attacking game. This will leave space for the likes of Zaha, van Aanholt, Wan-Bissaka and co whilst Hodgson's insistence on playing 4 defensive midfielders can stifle the likes of Neves and Moutinho. We saw Wolves struggle against this dynamic in their home game against Huddersfield and it could be the same here.

Both teams are poor at converting their chances, ELO ratings are almost level whilst key goal metrics are bang on equal. I don't really understand why Palace are such a big price here, in my view the asian line has been set incorrectly for this match. 

Palace to cover 2 of the 3 outcomes at 1.75 or above seems to be a decent value bet.

[Mindfulness]

Almost forgot:

 

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

75% of Bournemouth's matches had over 2.5 goals scored in Premier League.
Manchester Utd have scored 2 goals or more in each of their last 3 matches in Premier League.
Huddersfield have lost their last 7 matches in Premier League.
West Ham Utd conceded at least 1 goal in 90% of their home matches in Premier League.
70% of Wolverhampton's matches had under 2.5 goals in Premier League.
Crystal Palace have scored 35% of their goals after the 75th minute in Premier League.

You can find interesting 45 Football Betting Streaks for 02.01.2019 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-02-01-2019-12860

[betcatalog]

Beyond that, the upscale Solskieer Manchester United counts three consecutive wins and even comfortable against Cardiff, Huddersfield and Bournemouth, with satisfaction at the club's ranks. He is currently being tested at Newcastle headquarters and with the forum he can easily win
NEWCASTLE UNITED vs MANCHESTER UNITED @@ MANCHESTER UNITED, odds 1.50

[StevieDay1983]

Newcastle vs Manchester United

It's an unpredictable set of fixtures due to the previous congestion of matches so I'm going for the televised game today between Newcastle and Manchester United that is scheduled to kick off at 8pm from St James' Park. Can the home side pick up a much-needed win or will the travelling team extend their winning run to four league games?

Newcastle are experiencing another dour season by their high standards. The fans are still waiting for Mike Ashley to sell the club and with the January transfer window now open it's another stark reminder of the lack of investment the team is receiving. The club are 15th place but precariously just 3 points above the relegation zone. Defeat here could potentially see them only outside the bottom three on goal difference.

Manchester United look freed from the shackles of Jose Mourinho's negative tactics under the stewardship of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. The Red Devils haven't really been challenged yet having notched up solid wins against lower-placed sides in the form of Cardiff, Huddersfield, and Bournemouth but this might be a trickier game than many anticipate.

United didn't have the easier of rides here over the past couple of seasons. It was a 3-3 draw on 12th January, 2016 and then Newcastle won 1-0 on 11th February, 2018 in the past two fixtures between the two clubs at St James' Park. Will a new manager halt this bad run of results for United at this ground?

One interesting fact is that Rafa Benitez has proved to be a thorn in the side of Manchester United over recent times. The Spanish manager has now won his last four home games against United when in charge of English clubs. It's a record that covers his time at Newcastle, Chelsea, and Liverpool.

Generally, the omens favour United, if you're into that superstitious stuff. United have lost just 1 of their last 8 league games against Newcastle. United have only lost 2 of their last 22 first matches of the new calendar year. They also possess the best January record of any club in the Premier League with 67 wins from their 99 games played in this month in the Premier League era. Furthermore, Newcastle have lost 7 of their 10 home league games this season.

There's a chance of history being made in this game as well. If Solskjaer wins then he will become the first United manager since Sir Matt Busby in 1946 to win his first four matches in charge. Looking at the state of the two clubs right now, I can see United doing it. It might not be a rout like their last three games but a 2-0 or 2-1 win should do it.

Manchester United HT/FT @ 2.50 with Ladbrokes

Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.72 with Unibet

[Xcout]

I was just writing about, when your reply appeared. Therefore I had to see what you had provided us with! And as always spot on analysis.

My two cents:

I suspect Manchester United have the edge for this match, the team really turn around once Mourinho left the building. Another case of study for the players sacked the coach? 

For this match the away victory odds have fallen to much. On the other side Newcastle is heading towards a tough fixtures and judging from his recent form, it might end up in relegation positions. Still as BH correctly stated the good results of Benitez against Manchester United are something to have into consideration. I will follow BH HT/FT bet with a medium stake.

 

[StevieDay1983]

8 minutes ago, Xcout said:

I was just writing about, when your reply appeared. Therefore I had to see what you had provided us with! And as always spot on analysis.

My two cents:

I suspect Manchester United have the edge for this match, the team really turn around once Mourinho left the building. Another case of study for the players sacked the coach? 

For this match the away victory odds have fallen to much. On the other side Newcastle is heading towards a tough fixtures and judging from his recent form, it might end up in relegation positions. Still as BH correctly stated the good results of Benitez against Manchester United are something to have into consideration. I will follow BH HT/FT bet with a medium stake.

 

 Sorry! I needed to fit in a preview when my thoughts on the game were fresh. As you say, the odds on a win for the United are too low for me. I think United will still win but at that price it's not tempting enough. If anyone can upset the apple cart, it's Benitez against United.

[thinkpink63]

Wolves v Crystal Palace

BTTS YES @ 2.10 with Pinnacle

Great value here IHMO.

The home side are in a great moment, with 4 wins in last 6 and a high mood following the 3-1 away win over Tottenham.

They scored 11 goals in 6 of last 7 league games, mising to find the net only against Liverpool.

On the other hand they have conceded in 5 of last 6 home games. Crystal Palace come from 3 consecutive away BTTS, with 6 goals scored in the process (conceding 8).

[cluelessG]

Glenn Murray to score against West Ham - odds 2.75 at bet365

He loves scoring against the Hammers, whose defence is leaky this season. Zabaleta is back in the starting lineup, so it's an improvement in comparison with the lineup against Burnley. Fabianski has been fantastic in goal but he can't save them all. West Ham are tired and Brighton had an extra day of rest.  Murray only played 15 minutes against Everton so he will be fresh today.

A side bet - both teams to score - 1.84 at pinnacle.

I believe there's value in the away win at  odds of 4.2 - Brighton are poor away but they have won 2 matches this season already (that's 2 out of 10) and West Ham have lost 50% of their home matches (5 out of 10).

[betcatalog]

The two teams have excellent offensive lines and have world class players. I look forward to an open game with many final goals in the two hocks and it's very possible to see a match with goals from both sides

MANCHESTER CITY vs LIVERPOOL FC @@ +2.50 Over, odds 1.60

[Xcout]

A Shoutout to @Mindfulness for taking Crystal Palace side! I should have listen to him!

[StevieDay1983]

Manchester City vs Liverpool

Next up is the big one. Title contenders Manchester City and Liverpool go head-to-head in this epic clash at the Etihad Stadium tonight for an 8pm kick-off. Could the outcome of this match play a pivotal role in deciding which team wins the Premier League title this season or are we all being a little dramatic?

Manchester City had endured a rough patch of 3 defeats in 4 league games before their 3-1 win away to Southampton in their last game. It had some suggesting the wheels had come off the Pep Guardiola express. Was it a blip or are teams starting to work out how to deal with City's attacking prowess now? The club remains in 3rd place in the league but a win here would see them move up to 2nd and to within 4 points of leaders Liverpool.

Jurgen Klopp's side are still unbeaten this season. The Reds have won 9 league games on the bounce and with the team currently 6 points clear at the top of the table before this game their fans are starting to dream. This is arguably their toughest challenge to date though. They come to the Etihad Stadium where they have only won 1 of their last 9 visits but I think we can all agree that they'd certainly take a draw here.

Liverpool do hold the better record over City in recent years. The Reds have won 4, drawn 1, and lost 1 of their last 6 meetings. This is also the strongest Liverpool side in decades according to a lot of pundits so should we be expecting another Liverpool victory?

It appears Klopp has the best of Guardiola in their head-to-head battles. No other manager in Guardiola's career has given him more grief than Klopp. Their time together in the Bundesliga and Premier League has seen Klopp get the better of his counterpart on more occasions than not.

History suggests there may be favour for City. Not only have City won their first match of the calendar year in 11 of the last 12 years but Liverpool are notoriously mediocre at best during January. The Reds have won just 5 of their last 17 matches in all competitions played in January. They have lost 9 of the 24 matches played under Klopp in that month.

This is one of the most unpredictable games yet. This Liverpool side is exceeding the expectations of most of us. City have faltered but is it simply a case of them getting their bad patch out the way and Liverpool yet to have theirs? No team has ever failed to go on and win the Premier League title with the lead Liverpool had coming into the new year. I'm just not sure they'll win this one. It feels like it's about time Guardiola got one over on Klopp. I can see a 2-1 or 3-2 win for City here. A cheeky bet is Sergio Aguero to score anytime given he's bagged 6 goals in 6 home league games against Liverpool.

Manchester City to Win @ 2.10 with BetVictor

Anytime Scorer: Sergio Aguero @ 2.25 with Ladbrokes

[Mindfulness]

@Xcout

Appreciate that mate. I think the markets have broadly struggled to get a grip on Wolves games so far this campaign. The Palace +0.50 closing line was around 1.7 so the market adjusted eventually but basically they were very slow here and this gave us space for a nice value bet.