FA Cup Predictions > Jan 23rd - 27th

[StevieDay1983]

The FA Cup 4th Round is coming up this weekend. Here are the odds attached for the matches that are scheduled to take place over an extended 5-day period. Tell us what predictions you have! 

[malabgd]

QPR vs Sheffield Wed

QPR

Doubtful: -

Out (injuries/other): Yoann Barbet (12/0 d), Charlie Owens (0/0 m)

Suspended: -

 

Sheffield Wed

Doubtful: Liam Palmer (19/0 m)

Out (injuries/other): Fernando Forestieri (9/1 f), Steven Fletcher (22/12 f, top scorer), Kieren Westwood (14/0 g)

Suspended: -

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide.

[Charon84]

Liverpool already 1.47 for FA Cup. I know they will put in some  'B'-players but even then...they are playing against relegation candidate League One who certainly isn't in form. -1AH @1.77...very tempting.

Wouldn't touch the Over 2.50 @1.68 though. If Pool takes 0-2 lead, we can't be sure they score the third goal.

Will wait for some news who plays.

[waynecoyne]

QPR V Sheffield Wednesday

bright osayi-samuel has a minutes per goal ratio of 311 scoring 5 goals so far

His goal minutes are 6 to buy with sporting index which looks cheap to me

 

[StevieDay1983]

Northampton vs Derby

The FA Cup 4th Round is up and there's a potential giant-killing feat coming up on Friday night when League Two side Northampton host Championship strugglers Derby in an 8pm GMT kick-off at the Sixfields Stadium. On paper, this looks like your typical one-sided game but we all know the magic of the cup means that the away side are very vulnerable in this one.

Northampton are enjoying a much more positive season this year under Keith Curle than the disappointing campaign of last year. The Cobblers are 6th in the league table and in firm contention for the play-offs. A cheeky run in the FA Cup has also boosted spirits with the club having already disposed of Chippenham Town, Notts County, and Burton in previous rounds. An unbeaten run of 6 games across all competitions gives the team huge confidence heading into this game but a leaky defence will need to be tightened if they're to stand a chance of an upset tonight.

Derby (or should we say Wayne Rooney's Derby!) come into this game in decent form but remain down in 16th place in the Championship. The Rams are now undefeated in their previous 6 games in all competitions as well. The signing of Rooney has seemingly given the team an injection of something that makes them appear to be turning a corner. Either that or the fact they've released the calamity that is Richard Keogh. Hard to tell! Anyway, Phillip Cocu's side earned a hard-fought 1-0 win away to Crystal Palace in the 3rd Round so they know what is needed to grind out the wins in this competition. Unfortunately, that away win was their only one in their last 13 away matches in all competitions.

I can't help but feel Derby are ripe for the taking here. Yes, their recent form has improved significantly but how strong a side will Cocu field knowing that relegation from the Championship is an absolute no-no. I think he'll still play a strong team but Northampton will put them through the wringer. I wouldn't be surprised if the home side managed to take this to a replay at least but I actually fancy them for a shock win here.

Northampton Draw No Bet @ 2.80 with Unibet

BTTS @ 1.73 with Betfred

@Mindfulness, @Pep004, @MaliMisko12, @betcatalog, @sajtion, @godofhorses, @Tiffy, @waynecoyne, @The Sexless Innkeeper, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @Duke_Tm, @dogmeister, @Arkadi Manucharov, @derbent, @fat, @allyhibs, @6avin24, @discipline, @the bastardian, @Bronxie, @Bett, @KikoCy, @teddybear3011, @markus808, @allthethings, @Kenton Schweppes, @vasilli07, @Dylan Lynch, @neilovan, @JKos, @zemo91, @kulikTS, @mrclubbie, @Judeksi, @Henind666, @Dave1X2, @canaries91, @jazzman02, @sajtion, @Darran, @postmanplod69, @eddiem, @bartonbank, @yossa6133, @Teodore, @thinkpink63, @Carovie, @i1_principe, @MrJol, @shrewd., @AussieDex. @Rey86, @ivanhoe, @Ameer, @Neubs, @BHAadam, @Charon84, and @AndreBR.

[Charon84]

On 1/24/2020 at 10:42 AM, Charon84 said:

Liverpool already 1.47 for FA Cup. I know they will put in some  'B'-players but even then...they are playing against relegation candidate League One who certainly isn't in form. -1AH @1.77...very tempting.

Wouldn't touch the Over 2.50 @1.68 though. If Pool takes 0-2 lead, we can't be sure they score the third goal.

Will wait for some news who plays.

Odds dropped significantly. Bit too late to make any Liverpool move right now. Maybe some value in Over/Under markets.

[bettingfellow]

It will be interesting to see if United can win against Tranmere. I guess they will rest a few players as they have City in a few days, and even they have no chance in League Cup, they can't field second (or third with injuries) team against City and risk losing with 6:0 or so. I guess they will play Dalot for example, and Bailly, but they have to rest Maguire, AWB, Fred, Martial or they are risking injuries. Without them (and even with them) I am not sure they can comfortably win this one. I would try some small shot on Home/Draw double chance.

[allthethings]

On 1/24/2020 at 8:25 AM, StevieDay1983 said:

Northampton vs Derby

The FA Cup 4th Round is up and there's a potential giant-killing feat coming up on Friday night when League Two side Northampton host Championship strugglers Derby in an 8pm GMT kick-off at the Sixfields Stadium. On paper, this looks like your typical one-sided game but we all know the magic of the cup means that the away side are very vulnerable in this one.

Northampton are enjoying a much more positive season this year under Keith Curle than the disappointing campaign of last year. The Cobblers are 6th in the league table and in firm contention for the play-offs. A cheeky run in the FA Cup has also boosted spirits with the club having already disposed of Chippenham Town, Notts County, and Burton in previous rounds. An unbeaten run of 6 games across all competitions gives the team huge confidence heading into this game but a leaky defence will need to be tightened if they're to stand a chance of an upset tonight.

Derby (or should we say Wayne Rooney's Derby!) come into this game in decent form but remain down in 16th place in the Championship. The Rams are now undefeated in their previous 6 games in all competitions as well. The signing of Rooney has seemingly given the team an injection of something that makes them appear to be turning a corner. Either that or the fact they've released the calamity that is Richard Keogh. Hard to tell! Anyway, Phillip Cocu's side earned a hard-fought 1-0 win away to Crystal Palace in the 3rd Round so they know what is needed to grind out the wins in this competition. Unfortunately, that away win was their only one in their last 13 away matches in all competitions.

I can't help but feel Derby are ripe for the taking here. Yes, their recent form has improved significantly but how strong a side will Cocu field knowing that relegation from the Championship is an absolute no-no. I think he'll still play a strong team but Northampton will put them through the wringer. I wouldn't be surprised if the home side managed to take this to a replay at least but I actually fancy them for a shock win here.

Northampton Draw No Bet @ 2.80 with Unibet

BTTS @ 1.73 with Betfred

@Mindfulness, @Pep004, @MaliMisko12, @betcatalog, @sajtion, @godofhorses, @Tiffy, @waynecoyne, @The Sexless Innkeeper, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @Duke_Tm, @dogmeister, @Arkadi Manucharov, @derbent, @fat, @allyhibs, @6avin24, @discipline, @the bastardian, @Bronxie, @Bett, @KikoCy, @teddybear3011, @markus808, @allthethings, @Kenton Schweppes, @vasilli07, @Dylan Lynch, @neilovan, @JKos, @zemo91, @kulikTS, @mrclubbie, @Judeksi, @Henind666, @Dave1X2, @canaries91, @jazzman02, @sajtion, @Darran, @postmanplod69, @eddiem, @bartonbank, @yossa6133, @Teodore, @thinkpink63, @Carovie, @i1_principe, @MrJol, @shrewd., @AussieDex. @Rey86, @ivanhoe, @Ameer, @Neubs, @BHAadam, @Charon84, and @AndreBR.

Unfortunate result, what with the 24 shots/2 on goal or whatever it was. For the future, though, allow me to suggest an alternative to your DNB.

You said you were inclined to take Northampton to win. Personally, if I thought that, I would take them to win at 3.62: 10e wins you 26e. Or, you could take the draw at 3.52: 10e wins you 25e.

When I first started betting on large underdogs, I split bets: half a unit on each, or two-third/one-third on whichever I was more keen on. I discovered pretty quickly that there was no money in it, long term. You end up losing more in 5e increments than you gain in 12e increments, if you get what I'm saying. However, you basically need only to guess right one of every three or four times to show a profit in the long run. When you guess right at 3/1 or 4/1 it covers a multitude of sins (losses).

It is true that your DNB cost you nothing in this case. Think of it another way: You believed Derby were ripe for the taking, and if you were right that they wouldn't win, your 10e would win 18e, or zero. I think it's better to take one or the other...this is the line of thinking that started me creating spreadsheets to find out what leagues, and what circumstances, throw up underdog wins or draws. When you find a marked tendency toward one or the other result, that's where I believe you have an edge.

[Charon84]

10 hours ago, Charon84 said:

Odds dropped significantly. Bit too late to make any Liverpool move right now. Maybe some value in Over/Under markets.

I'm relieved I didn't touch this match in the end   (with the main reasoning that in Cup matches everything is possible and we never can't be sure with B-team players)....

In Over/Under market I wanted to go for Under 3.00. That wouldn't work out as well.

[StevieDay1983]

Bournemouth vs Arsenal

The last match of the FA Cup 4th Round this weekend comes in an 8pm GMT kick-off tonight from the Vitality Stadium where it's an all-Premier League tie between Bournemouth and Arsenal. Neither of these two sides have been in any kind of positive form lately but they are showing signs of turning a corner. Which side will proceed to the 5th Round draw here?

Bournemouth were looking in big trouble last week with the club having not won a league game in 6 attempts. However, Eddie Howe's team battered south coast rivals Brighton 3-1 and also beat Luton 4-0 in the FA Cup 3rd Round earlier this month. The Cherries are still inside the relegation zone but they come into this game with a bit more optimism than they would have if they hadn't won last week.

Arsenal are showing glimpses of more resilience and positivity under Mikel Arteta. It's now 5 matches undefeated across all competitions and the 2-2 draw with Chelsea after going down to 10 men displayed a level of fight that hasn't been seen in a Gunners team for decades. The 1-0 win over Championship promotion hopefuls Leeds in the previous round was another example of this.

Hmm, this is a hard one to call. Arsenal have won 8 of the 11 meetings between these two sides and the fact that Arteta will start the in-form Gabriel Martinelli has me thinking they pose an immediate threat to what remains a rickety Bournemouth back-line. The Brighton performance was a huge moment for Howe's team though and I think the fact I can't separate these teams has me thinking the score draw is the best option.

Draw @ 4.05 with RedZone

Anytime Scorer: Gabriel Martinelli @ 3.10 with Ladbrokes

[branskie]

8 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Bournemouth vs Arsenal

 

Draw @ 4.05 with RedZone

Anytime Scorer: Gabriel Martinelli @ 3.10 with Ladbrokes

You are right about everything but not about this being a draw. This is clear Arsenal win with many goals scored trust me

Edited January 27, 2020 by branskie