Charon84

I unfortunately missed the line change on Brighton from +0.25 to +0.50...otherwise would have taken that one even though the 'advantage' wasn't >0.5 but 0.49. Line Brentford changed to +0.75 now.

I have been back to the drawing board this summer and made up a new betting model (this time based on linear regression). It's supposed to point out good dogs with a handicap. Hope this one is more promising then last one 😁 (though I already loved the process). The model predicts a Brentford +1 @1.98 as a good bet this round. So that one I take. No other bets.

I think it's really hard to compare those two teams based on recent stats because they are misleading. Opponents Milan were far better than opponents Torino. That said; I still think value is with Torino but it's a pass for me. I only have Sassuolo Win @3.80 and Monza Win @3.60 this week.

After some testing of my model this will be the first match I'll actually put in money. Arbitrage bet Fulham Win @3.55 and Draw @3.95 = actually a Fulham +0.5AH @1.87 (1 unit).

@StefanBB wrong topic ?

After the Tottenham match yesterday my model also points out Fulham. Odds @3.55 for a win and @3.95 for a draw mean Fulham 1X @1.87 after arbitrage. I'll take them gladly. Odds will drop coming days.

Last week my model preformed well (paper chase) with +2.13u. For this week it points out Chelsea and Brentford. Going to look at situational angles, but I guess Brentford will remain solely.

My model gives Fulham good edge so I take Fulham win (0.5u) @4.10 and Draw (0.5u) @3.60.

Really....two own goals by Leicester and same player...that is not helping at all lol

Same as with Leeds yesterday...model says Leicester +1 is big value @2.90 (1 unit) and Leicester @10 (0.25 units). Actually my model rates Leicester as the better team here. No value in other friday match.

I'm paper chasing my new excel model for the Leeds - City game...everything points to massive value Leeds here so (paper bet) Leeds +1 @3.10 (1 unit) and Leeds @9.50 (0.25 unit). Edit: model is based on pythagorean theorem with additional stats and subjective analysis (injuries, weather, circumstances etc.).

Well...that was incredible bad football from Netherlands...equador deserved a win here.

After odds Netherlands dropped they are back and still rising...am I missing something or is it the over excitement for performance equador?

Already bet Netherlands -0.5 @1.83: Betting public is too happy about performance Ecuador and too disappointed in performance Netherlands but you can't compare those matches at all (it's a WC opening game with lot of tension and stress impacting game performance, Qatar is way below Senegal). Expect the Netherlands to grow into the WC with Van Gaal as top-coach fine-tuning the team. Van Gaal is strategical above Alfaro. Expect gready and important Memphis to play (instead of totally ineffective Jansen) and also Timber to play (instead of shaky De Ligt) with (in my opinion) better offensive skills. Don't let 2 goals Ecuador (against Qatar) fool you because Ecuador has trouble scoring goals. Before Qatar match they only scored 7 in 11 matches and never more than 1 per game (last 3 matches no goals) where I only count 3 'strong teams' and a lot of weak teams. The Dutch? 29 in 11 matches and only 2 matches with 1 goal (rest 2+) where I count 3 'strong teams' and a whole bunch of teams who are equal or slightly better than Ecuador. Maybe Valencia is out for Ecuador.

I know I'm talking 'afterwards', but Noppert is the best decision Van Gaal made so far. He's the best goalie at the moment even if he's inexperienced. I had Netherlands -0.75 @1.95 btw so I'm happy with the result! Though a 0-1 or 0-0/1-1 was a more realistic result based on performance.