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Charon84

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  1. Have to touch the Rams -3.5 @1.94. Too tempting (and a little bit bias from my side).
  2. I did know that stat, but I simply ignored it cuz in my opinion trend-stats are bullshit. Different teams at that time, different situation and standings and it's just history. Just like roulette. If the ball lands 5 times on 0, doesn't change the probability the 6th time.
  3. I took WFT -3.0 @1.91. I just don't see Giants winning. WFT better on both sides.
  4. Not yet it's only the matches that qualify spread wise. But with the change of spread all matches qualify except Browns - Texans, Buccs - Falcons and Packers - Lions. For tomorrow I have a strong lean towards WFT. I know it's Heinicke as QB and he isn't great, but he fits the system. Giants QB Jones will have big trouble with pass rush / D-line WFT. It will cause some interceptions, fumbles or inaccurate passing. WFT should win with touchdown or more.
  5. Going tot adjust my system to favs under or equal to 6.0. Otherwise there arent much Bets available in the coming weeks.
  6. Week 2 matches that can qualify in my system (favorites with spread 3.0 or less) at the moment: Saints (-3.0) at Panthers Bengals at Bears (-3.0) Bills (-3.0) at Dolphins Cowboys at Chargers (-3.0) Chiefs (-3.0) at Ravens Going to analyze coming days.
  7. I've changed my approach. Instead of focusing on +3 dogs I focused on 3.0 or less favorites. History is telling us that small favs are winning significant more. So I've hedged Raiders. Yesterday I only had one bet (Broncos -2.5 at Giants, win) and my plan is to bet 1-2 matches a week maximum.
  8. After long debates with myself I've pulled the trigger on Raiders +4. Already had a lean that way. Now Edwards and Peters are also out I'm far more confident. Ravens having injury trouble on both sides of the ball, Raiders strong attack and improved defense (new DC who stopped Lamar once in 2019), home support in new stadium Raiders. Enough ingredi├źnts for a straight upset or cover. No other bets this weekend. No home +3 dog qualifies in my opinion.
  9. I use PFF stats for all kind of reasons. But not for Fantasy, but they from my understanding they have good Fantasy info.
  10. I've discarded Browns, Colts and Texans as viable underdog bets. Too many questionmarks. WFT and NYG still remain as do the Steelers and Cardinals. I'm still deciding how to play this season. I normally traded on Betfair trough the season to end with profit in NFL SuperBowl Winner market...but unfortunately they've banned players from my country recently. So I have to adapt. Biggest problem is time. I can't follow 32 teams for over 20 weeks. My options: 1. Pick 2-3 teams and only bet on matches were these teams are involved. 2. Set a standard which narrows down the options every week (i.e. only bet Home dogs with line above +3.0). On thuesday I know which matches qualify for the next weekend and I can focus on those matches only. What choice would you make and why? Or do you have an alternative?
  11. The stupid part of these bets....we all know one of them will be one big disaster...but which one? All bets should be winners, but most question marks are with Panthers IMO. 49ers is best bet I think. I'm also eyeing Seahawks -2.5 @Colts. Do you have any standout dogs that can win week 1? Steelers, Cardinals, Browns?
  12. Ah that makes sense. Knowing this there are no stand outs in points/rating.
  13. Do higher totals means 'better'? If that's the case I think a lot of adjustments have to be made in Defence section and several in Attack section. What do you mean with Supremacy?
  14. Do Titans have enough firepower with one X-reciever? Don't know, but I agree they will win division since Wentz injury. From there on it depends on a whole lot of factors. Do you think Panthers are a dark horse just because McCaffrey will be back? It isn't enough for me NFC: Buccs, Packers, WFT, Rams (but here there is a little bit of bias ) AFC: Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Patriots
  15. Titans I don't agree. They didn't improve that much to be worth mentioning. Browns do have a great squad, but question marks are still with QB Mayfield. Can he be consistent? Was last year an exception? Don't know. Somehow I want to see it first before I can believe. I read more people are marking Panthers as a dark horse. I think it's still a team that needs 1-3 years to be a dark horse. They did improve though.
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