shrewd.

Fiorentina vs Udinese --- Kevin Lasagne to score anytime - trading at 11/4 in various places --- NAP Going into last week, there were two players on >2xG but 0 goals; Ekambi (Lyon) and Lasagna. Ekambi bagged a brace last weekend, making Kevin the only current player in top flight European football with >2xG and 0 goals. Only a matter of time. Very nice anytime scorer price away to a side who concede chances.

Sunderland vs Portsmouth -- BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE -- (Portsmouth avg. 2.1 xG away from home; Sunderland avg. ~2 xG at home. Looks a recipe for chances/goals) [19/20 Skybet] Aaron Martin to score anytime (for Harrogate town) -- Just the two goals thus far but, seems to be their Firmino; creative & associative numbers are v. high and his underlying scoring numbers suggest he's due a few goals soon. A very juicy anytime price at 13/5, imo. Harrogate creating bucket loads away in recent games so could & should get chances.. [13/5 Ppowers/Betfair] Singles + 6.87 double @ Paddypowers

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Couple of (near) qualifiers tomorrow: 11:00 (GMT) - Rubin Kazan vs. Dinamo Moscow - (Russian league) @ 11/10 Betfairsportsbook. (100% system match) 12:00 (GMT) - FK Mariupol vs. Karpaty - (Ukranian league) Evens @ Betfairsportsbook. (81% system match) Singles and double. Annoyed I didn't spot these earlier in the week, in particular the 100% match. Could've had a little fourfold. Not going to mix it with Sunday's selection in multiples for superstition reasons.

Almost missed it, but there is an 81% qualifier tomorrow lunch time in Ukraine. 12:00 (GMT) - FK Mariupol vs. Karpaty - Evens @ Betfairsportsbook. Not doubling up with Sunday's selection, and a tad wary on it not being a 100% qualifier, but the point of this is testing/experimenting. A 90.3% qualifier was a comfortable winner in the pilot bet, so let's try a little single.

Bet landed nice and early in the first half. Lovely aggressive football on display.

Manchester United to score in both halves @ 29/20 William Hill Strong team out, think it's a fair price. Bournemouth defeat probably drew greater significance to this game. EL their only realistic hope at CL football at this rate. Convincing performance needed.

Well, a fun watch ? Brazilian single comes good, and another promising system victory. What's most promising was there was just shy of a bonkers 30 shots in the game (away side naturally less as they were happy taking the early away lead), which indicates the match identification is on the right track. Underlying numbers. Trust the process.

Hi Dam. Well, the idea is consistently creating clearer cut chances in terms of location comes hand in hand with sustainability. For example, teams who create & shoot via close & central zones generate a higher xG score, or conversely, concede these type of chances will build a high xGA (expected goal against). A simple little visual RE: locations The 1 zone represents the ideal chance, followed by 2. So you see it goes from close & central (1 & 2) to wide and acute (the 6 zones) A clean shot across the floor in 1 will give you a very high scoring probability (probably like 0.70-0.80/1.0. A penalty has a 0.75 probability), but can also be lower dependent on whether or not it's a volley/on the bounce, met with the head (headers always always have lower probability by default than shots with the feet) methods), have defender(s) in front of them, etc. There are plenty of data recorders out there who specialize in xG technology. A good free site I'd recommend if you want to use it to assist your betting would be https://understat.com/. Unfortunately, my hands are tied and I'm unable to share the specific database I have access to as it's powered by Hudl, a professional analytics company who run this database for professional clubs & scouts for big fees.

The double is available at @ 5.46 with Betfair Sportsbook

Caught a little bit off guard by the 5.55 Barca kick-off, so no real time for proper write ups/previews but studying was done. Barca vs. Slavia Praha - Barca to score 2+ goals. I like the dynamic of this XI named. I think Griezmann/Suarez/Messi is too ball-hungry and pedestrian. Putting Griezmann down the middle flanked by Dembele & Ablba, with Vidal and Semedo overlapping the opposite side should be too much. Zenit vs. Leipzig - Both teams to score. Should be an open game. Leipzig a very innovative, expansive side and don't particularly change whether they're at home or away. Should be plenty of chances. Dortmund vs. Inter - Inter or the draw. I'd compare this fixture to Conte's Chelsea vs. Klopp's LFC to a degree. Home side very offensive and will rely on the atmosphere, but Conte and his 5-3-2 are the ultimate party poopers. Liverpool vs. Genk - Liverpool to score 2+ goals Like some on here, quite keen on a Liverpool performance. They need a result here, and at Anfield, should be too much for Genk over 90 mins. Fourfold pays 5.03 at Betfair

System encounters its first loser today (0-0), but still promising signs and some positives to be taken from the fact there was 11 shots-on-target/saves recorded (which is 37.5% higher than the average match in the Russian Premier division) - so the match identification feels as if it's on the right path. Sometimes they don't go in - there's a human between the post who wants to stop it - that's football. Onwards and upwards. Two qualifiers spotted for the remainder of the week, no available prices on the Sunday game yet. Wednesday night/Thursday morning at 00:30 (GMT) ---- BAHIA VS. CHAPECOENSE ---- (Brazilian Serie A) @ 2.45 Betfairsportsbook Sunday at 16:00 (GMT) ---- SLAVIA PRAHA VS. TEPLICE ---- (Czech first division) May be able to double up on Wednesday morning or something, depending how early the industry open up markets for Sunday's Czech league games.

Just the one qualifier tomorrow: 13:30 (GMT) - Kryliya Sovetov v Rubin Kazan BTTS (Russian Premier division). Best priced at 26/25 with 888sport, generally trading at evens. I'm having a play on the single, but nothing too mad - still early days & testing the water.

Very promising start to the system. A full house ? Hope some of you followed me and got some joy too.

The treble can also be backed at Betfair Sportsbook @ 6.87.