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shrewd.

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  1. Couple of (near) qualifiers tomorrow: 11:00 (GMT) - Rubin Kazan vs. Dinamo Moscow - (Russian league) @ 11/10 Betfairsportsbook. (100% system match) 12:00 (GMT) - FK Mariupol vs. Karpaty - (Ukranian league) Evens @ Betfairsportsbook. (81% system match) Singles and double. Annoyed I didn't spot these earlier in the week, in particular the 100% match. Could've had a little fourfold. Not going to mix it with Sunday's selection in multiples for superstition reasons.
  2. Almost missed it, but there is an 81% qualifier tomorrow lunch time in Ukraine. 12:00 (GMT) - FK Mariupol vs. Karpaty - Evens @ Betfairsportsbook. Not doubling up with Sunday's selection, and a tad wary on it not being a 100% qualifier, but the point of this is testing/experimenting. A 90.3% qualifier was a comfortable winner in the pilot bet, so let's try a little single.
  3. Bet landed nice and early in the first half. Lovely aggressive football on display.
  4. Manchester United to score in both halves @ 29/20 William Hill Strong team out, think it's a fair price. Bournemouth defeat probably drew greater significance to this game. EL their only realistic hope at CL football at this rate. Convincing performance needed.
  5. Well, a fun watch 😊 Brazilian single comes good, and another promising system victory. What's most promising was there was just shy of a bonkers 30 shots in the game (away side naturally less as they were happy taking the early away lead), which indicates the match identification is on the right track. Underlying numbers. Trust the process.
  6. Hi Dam. Well, the idea is consistently creating clearer cut chances in terms of location comes hand in hand with sustainability. For example, teams who create & shoot via close & central zones generate a higher xG score, or conversely, concede these type of chances will build a high xGA (expected goal against). A simple little visual RE: locations The 1 zone represents the ideal chance, followed by 2. So you see it goes from close & central (1 & 2) to wide and acute (the 6 zones) A clean shot across the floor in 1 will give you a very high scoring probability (probably like 0.70-0.80/1.0. A penalty has a 0.75 probability), but can also be lower dependent on whether or not it's a volley/on the bounce, met with the head (headers always always have lower probability by default than shots with the feet) methods), have defender(s) in front of them, etc. There are plenty of data recorders out there who specialize in xG technology. A good free site I'd recommend if you want to use it to assist your betting would be https://understat.com/. Unfortunately, my hands are tied and I'm unable to share the specific database I have access to as it's powered by Hudl, a professional analytics company who run this database for professional clubs & scouts for big fees.
  7. The double is available at @ 5.46 with Betfair Sportsbook
  8. Caught a little bit off guard by the 5.55 Barca kick-off, so no real time for proper write ups/previews but studying was done. Barca vs. Slavia Praha - Barca to score 2+ goals. I like the dynamic of this XI named. I think Griezmann/Suarez/Messi is too ball-hungry and pedestrian. Putting Griezmann down the middle flanked by Dembele & Ablba, with Vidal and Semedo overlapping the opposite side should be too much. Zenit vs. Leipzig - Both teams to score. Should be an open game. Leipzig a very innovative, expansive side and don't particularly change whether they're at home or away. Should be plenty of chances. Dortmund vs. Inter - Inter or the draw. I'd compare this fixture to Conte's Chelsea vs. Klopp's LFC to a degree. Home side very offensive and will rely on the atmosphere, but Conte and his 5-3-2 are the ultimate party poopers. Liverpool vs. Genk - Liverpool to score 2+ goals Like some on here, quite keen on a Liverpool performance. They need a result here, and at Anfield, should be too much for Genk over 90 mins. Fourfold pays 5.03 at Betfair
  9. System encounters its first loser today (0-0), but still promising signs and some positives to be taken from the fact there was 11 shots-on-target/saves recorded (which is 37.5% higher than the average match in the Russian Premier division) - so the match identification feels as if it's on the right path. Sometimes they don't go in - there's a human between the post who wants to stop it - that's football. Onwards and upwards. Two qualifiers spotted for the remainder of the week, no available prices on the Sunday game yet. Wednesday night/Thursday morning at 00:30 (GMT) ---- BAHIA VS. CHAPECOENSE ---- (Brazilian Serie A) @ 2.45 Betfairsportsbook Sunday at 16:00 (GMT) ---- SLAVIA PRAHA VS. TEPLICE ---- (Czech first division) May be able to double up on Wednesday morning or something, depending how early the industry open up markets for Sunday's Czech league games.
  10. Just the one qualifier tomorrow: 13:30 (GMT) - Kryliya Sovetov v Rubin Kazan BTTS (Russian Premier division). Best priced at 26/25 with 888sport, generally trading at evens. I'm having a play on the single, but nothing too mad - still early days & testing the water.
  11. Very promising start to the system. A full house 👍 Hope some of you followed me and got some joy too.
  12. The treble can also be backed at Betfair Sportsbook @ 6.87.
  13. And for anyone who's wondering what xG (expected goals) or xGa (expected goals against) is, it's a statistical data recording that measures the quality of chances created or conceded based on several variables such as assist type, shot type, shot angle, shot location, etc. Adding up a players and team’s expected goals can give a strong indication of how many goals a player or team should have scored or conceded on average, based on the quality of chances they have had or conceded. It's generally proven to be a good indicator/predictor of performance, results and sustainability. For example, Manchester United (slightly) outshot Bournemouth today, but according to xG data, Bournemouth's victory was probably deserved. Created clearer chances & shot from better locations (this is not insinuating anything RE: Bournemouth or United, the sample size is minimum, it's just giving you a visual example)
  14. Thanks Torque; anything that gives us the edge. Found few qualifiers/testers tomorrow. 11:00 (GMT) - FC Neftekhimik vs. Armavir (Russian 1st division) - 100% system match. 13:00 (GMT) - OB vs. Hobro (Denmark top league) - 90.3% system match. 14:00 (GMT) - Gornik Zabrze v Piast Gliwice (Polish top league) - 100% system match. Unfortunately, the the Russian 1st division match isn't widely covered by the industry, so you can only back the treble (all both teams to score) with Marathon Bet @ 6.89 if anyone wants a nibble on it. Personally backed the '100% qualifying' double at 3.33 and the treble at 6.89, both with Marathon Bet.
  15. Just trying something out, just a little idea. I'm going to try and identify matches in which both teams are underachieving offensively & overachieving defensively according to xG (expected goals) data, and see how they do in the 'both teams to score' market. If there's more than one selection, then it could be worth combining for multis... and who knows? The rule: - Both teams must be overperforming xGA (expected goals against) and underperforming xG (expected goals scored) by at least 2.0 respectively. *Note the rules could be tinkered/altered depending on system results/performance. What is xG? Well, xG is a data analysis recording that records a player or teams shots/chances whilst considering several variables to determine how likely was it to have scored/conceded. Variables such as the location (most crucial), the angle the pass came from, the shot type (for example, headers will accumulate lower goal probability/xG than a strike across the floor from the same position, by default), how many players were in front of the shot, etc. It's most generally used to get a better picture as to how sustainable a teams form is (negative or positive) or players goal run - or indeed, lack of. Basically, football's law of averages. I touched on the location being the main factor. It's common knowledge the clearer cut chances you create or surrender, the likelier you are to score or concede. From the below image we have it split into 6 main zones, ordered from 1 to 6 in order of where you want to shoot from. Zone 1 & 2 are the "ideal" zones; short and central. Shots/chances from here will obviously accumulate the highest xG figures (measured 0-100; 100 probably being a ball sat dead on the goal-line with the keeper in a coma; I've yet to see a 100/100 xG chance - penalties have a 0.75/100 probability for reference). The 6 zones; wide, far and acute - will accumulate lottery-esque xG figures. Any team who scores from here should fine their keeper a weeks wages. A team or player who's under-performing underlying xG numbers generally are creating/getting chances in the 1/2/3 zones, but for whatever reason, aren't scoring. Whether that's due to superman keepers, slack finishing or rotten luck - they're not scoring as many as the quality of their chances/chance creation suggests. Conversely, a team who are "over-performing" xGA (expected goals against) are generally getting out of jail a lot, and surrender more high quality chances than their goals-against stat may suggest. My logic behind using this angle for a 'Both Teams To Score' market system is if you find 2 teams in the same match who are have been getting lucky defensively and unlucky offensively, it has the recipe for goals. Stay tuned. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------