allthethings

Value POD is Liverpool X, 4.25 @ Bovada. And I'm on it.

The splitting of the UEL into UEL and UECL has kind of messed up my database, and it may be a few years before I have a read on this third level of European comp. Having said that, I have some leans... If AZ stay at 2.00 and below, I'll have a go with Gil Vicente to win at home after they lost the first leg by 4 goals. I'll for sure be on MOL Fehervar and Wolfsberger to win outright. Sides like this, that win the first leg narrowly as a big dog away, and are now big dogs at home, are often viewed as having been lucky rather than a better club than expected. The market also always says, "They only need a draw," overvaluing that outcome, when the fact is they are as likely to come out on the front foot as cower in front of the likes of Koln and Molde. They will play their asses off in front of the home crowd. Keep in mind that I am posting this, so I expect these to lose in the worst possible way.

Apollon and especially Pyunik are the livest dogs on the board at prices around 7.00. Sherif T at 1.50 for anything is kind of nuts. Shamrock are a good draw shout, down by 4 goals and at home in the second leg comes up draws way more often than outright wins.

As if to prove my point, I had Nottingham to win today at 3/1, but did not post it. Draw your own conclusions.

I swear to god, posting here is the kiss of death. Nice call, Stevie.

Wasn't sure I was going to take this, but as the odds have risen Brentford-Man U are now a play on the draw @ 3.85. Premier League matches featuring a home dog at this range of odds in my database draw about 27% of the time, but against Man Utd these dogs have drawn 36% of the times, through bad and good years.