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Everything posted by allthethings

  1. As I don't see anywhere to put them, also taking Cambridge at 5.00 and Accrington at 4.50 in the EFL Trophy.
  2. I'm on Billericay at 3.90. Just five points separate the sides, and as I always say, home dogs in N/S.
  3. Old age for you: I go on and on about home dogs in N/S and forget to add the part about away dogs, which Hungerford are. Hungerford have won at Tonbridge and Hemel Hempstead as dogs of up to 4.00, and that's a trend hitting at 27 percent over the years and 30 percent this season (15-11-24).
  4. Over the years, home dogs of up to 4.00 in the N/S leagues have been cash cows; Hungerford in fact won at home against Chippenham and Dorking in October. But the overall trend hasn't held up too well: 14-23-31 over the past two seasons, and hasn't been a thing since 2017-18. That season and before, they won at a bit better than 30 percent at odds averaging 3.70. As I said, it's draws lately, but given the odds, even with a record of 5-10-6, if you'd played all wins you'd only be down 5.5 units. Regarding my earlier post, Weymouth are not a play at odds over 5.00, but Wrexham and Hartlepoo
  5. The matches I keep track of specifically involve dogs to favorites of better than 2.00 (closing line), and I was hoping to see lots of them because the sandwich match between Boxing Day and New Year's is always full of outright wins by dogs. Currently there are just two: Altrincham and Weymouth, but they are very live dogs in this situation.
  6. If this is what you think will happen, I think it would make more sense to take the 11.50 on offer for CS 2-2. At the current prices, if you win the over at poor odds, you'll lose the draw bet for a push or loss on the day, depending on how you handled the staking. Personally I think it's hard to ignore a price of 3.75 on the champions. It's absurd, I don't care how spotty they've been on away lately or whatever. No real motivation on either side, no hfa without fans, and Klopp is the kind of guy who would be delighted to stick it to the rivals. When will you ever see a price this big on
  7. Fernandes so far proving me wrong, and Stevie right.
  8. LASK 4.80 If you take Man Utd in this one, on away with no spectators and no attack, you're basically taking a team because of the crest. The Linz side are good, fit, on as good a run of form as United, highly motivated, and home. What's more, you get 4/1 for a home side to win a first leg match when United don't have to be concerned if they lose narrowly, with the second leg at home.
  9. Have to share this little nugget. My database in the FA Cup goes back to 2009, and it's a small sample, but the results in the 8th-finals are surprising. Big dogs away get outright wins at a high rate when they're in the up-to-5.00 range (no matches fit this year), and big home dogs are 0-7-15 (32% draws). The surprising thing is it's the home dogs of greater than 8.00 that are most responsible. Those huge dogs are 0-5-5. Most recent was Rochdale taking Spurs to a replay in 2018 as dogs of 14.74. The year before, Huddersfield (10.80) drew 0-0 with Man City. Oldham, Orient, Stevenage got draws
  10. Looking at draws in Sunderland, Oxford and Portsmouth, but it will be a last-minute decision.
  11. Ebbsfleet 4.31 Somehow getting crushed by the top side has led to these odds, I guess, and I can't say I understand it These two sides are not as far apart as the odds would suggest, and Fleet's h2h with Maidenhead is dead even, home or away.
  12. Unfortunate result, what with the 24 shots/2 on goal or whatever it was. For the future, though, allow me to suggest an alternative to your DNB. You said you were inclined to take Northampton to win. Personally, if I thought that, I would take them to win at 3.62: 10e wins you 26e. Or, you could take the draw at 3.52: 10e wins you 25e. When I first started betting on large underdogs, I split bets: half a unit on each, or two-third/one-third on whichever I was more keen on. I discovered pretty quickly that there was no money in it, long term. You end up losing more in 5e increments th
  13. Man Utd-Wolves X @ 3.73 This has been a good matchup for Wolves since returning to the Prem, and I don't see any reason why returning to Old Trafford means the home side should be favorites to this extent. Man U were 2.67 at Wolves in the match away, now they're 1.79?
  14. Won with Dorking, lost with Kingstonian...sadly, two losses in League One made it a small profit today.
  15. The FA Trophy replays I'm watching are Concord, Kingstonian and Dorking. If the home sides are listed at 2.00 or below and the away dogs are listed at under 3.99, I'll be on the dogs outright.
  16. Royston W, Halifax W, Halesowen X + 4 losses = plus 4.3
  17. A little FA Trophy action Farsley 3.47, Southport 4.20, Salisbury 3.90, Royston 3.50, Halifax 3.95, Dag&Red 3.90, Halesowen X 3.95
  18. I think Man U are a must-take at these odds...up to 5.38. The rest of the card...Billericay 3.70, Tranmere 5.25, Walsall 3.60
  19. What will happen, who knows. What has happened is interesting. Go back 15 years in this competition, and away favorites of under 2.00 do not perform well in the first leg of the semis. Home dogs have gone 4-2-0: Wycombe 9.90 1-1 Chelsea 2006-07 Ipswich 9.44 1-0 Arsenal 2010-11 Derby 7.79 1-0 Man Utd 2008-09 Sunderland 4.84 2-1 Man Utd 2013-14 Bradford 4.27 3-1 Aston Villa 2012-13 Blackburn 3.47 1-1 Man Utd 2005-06 In all six, leg two was won at home by the overwhelming favorite. Will be interesting to see how Man U do as a dog, as they failed to win thre
  20. Also Derby 5.38, Northampton 6.03 As with Sheff Wednesday yesterday, these prices are insane
  21. Bristol Rovers-Coventry X @ 3.80 I've watched Coventry's odds drop like a stone, now to 1.77 from above 2 yesterday, and this seems an obvious take. Hardly any daylight between the sides, and Rovers are 8-8-3 at home this season in all competitions I believe.
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