allthethings

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Everything posted by allthethings

  1. Unfortunate result, what with the 24 shots/2 on goal or whatever it was. For the future, though, allow me to suggest an alternative to your DNB. You said you were inclined to take Northampton to win. Personally, if I thought that, I would take them to win at 3.62: 10e wins you 26e. Or, you could take the draw at 3.52: 10e wins you 25e. When I first started betting on large underdogs, I split bets: half a unit on each, or two-third/one-third on whichever I was more keen on. I discovered pretty quickly that there was no money in it, long term. You end up losing more in 5e increments than you gain in 12e increments, if you get what I'm saying. However, you basically need only to guess right one of every three or four times to show a profit in the long run. When you guess right at 3/1 or 4/1 it covers a multitude of sins (losses). It is true that your DNB cost you nothing in this case. Think of it another way: You believed Derby were ripe for the taking, and if you were right that they wouldn't win, your 10e would win 18e, or zero. I think it's better to take one or the other...this is the line of thinking that started me creating spreadsheets to find out what leagues, and what circumstances, throw up underdog wins or draws. When you find a marked tendency toward one or the other result, that's where I believe you have an edge.
  2. Man Utd-Wolves X @ 3.73 This has been a good matchup for Wolves since returning to the Prem, and I don't see any reason why returning to Old Trafford means the home side should be favorites to this extent. Man U were 2.67 at Wolves in the match away, now they're 1.79?
  3. Won with Dorking, lost with Kingstonian...sadly, two losses in League One made it a small profit today.
  4. The FA Trophy replays I'm watching are Concord, Kingstonian and Dorking. If the home sides are listed at 2.00 or below and the away dogs are listed at under 3.99, I'll be on the dogs outright.
  5. Royston W, Halifax W, Halesowen X + 4 losses = plus 4.3
  6. A little FA Trophy action Farsley 3.47, Southport 4.20, Salisbury 3.90, Royston 3.50, Halifax 3.95, Dag&Red 3.90, Halesowen X 3.95
  7. I think Man U are a must-take at these odds...up to 5.38. The rest of the card...Billericay 3.70, Tranmere 5.25, Walsall 3.60
  8. What will happen, who knows. What has happened is interesting. Go back 15 years in this competition, and away favorites of under 2.00 do not perform well in the first leg of the semis. Home dogs have gone 4-2-0: Wycombe 9.90 1-1 Chelsea 2006-07 Ipswich 9.44 1-0 Arsenal 2010-11 Derby 7.79 1-0 Man Utd 2008-09 Sunderland 4.84 2-1 Man Utd 2013-14 Bradford 4.27 3-1 Aston Villa 2012-13 Blackburn 3.47 1-1 Man Utd 2005-06 In all six, leg two was won at home by the overwhelming favorite. Will be interesting to see how Man U do as a dog, as they failed to win three times as a favorite at this point in the competition.
  9. Also Derby 5.38, Northampton 6.03 As with Sheff Wednesday yesterday, these prices are insane
  10. Bristol Rovers-Coventry X @ 3.80 I've watched Coventry's odds drop like a stone, now to 1.77 from above 2 yesterday, and this seems an obvious take. Hardly any daylight between the sides, and Rovers are 8-8-3 at home this season in all competitions I believe.
  11. YB 4.90, AZ 4.60, St Etienne X 4.01 Ferencvaros will be a X if odds stay above 5.00, ML if below.
  12. I also took APOEL ML 4.10 Will wait out prices, but Young Boys and AZ are possible wins, Ferencvaros and St Etienne possible draws.
  13. Getafe already hold the second position on goal differential, and they won at Krasnodar, so they are through with a draw.
  14. If Chelsea win, Valencia must win, but Ajax need only draw to advance. I think the 4.50 or so on offer for the X in Ajax and Inter will be too good to pass up.
  15. In general, if you think Arsenal will be hard-pressed to get a win (I have WHU to win at 3.60), it is better to take either the win or the draw rather than DNB. Yes, it is no fun being right and losing your stake, but you'll do better over time by going for the higher priced option (whichever you choose). With DNB you're basically making the same bet, but you don't win anything if the match ends in a draw. Think of it this way, you have a 60% or 65% chance of being right, but only a 30% chance of cashing the ticket. And if you guess right, you'll win 2.5 times your stake or 3 times your stake. I thought about taking the draw, as it's even higher priced at 4.12, but home dogs in EPL at this range of odds get outright wins at a slightly higher rate than draws.
  16. Might as well tell you I will in all likelihood be on Zagreb at 5/1 away to Atalanta. Zagreb beat them 4-0 in their first match and sit on 5 points with Donetsk, and I fairly don't believe Atalanta have much to play for at this point.
  17. Hello all, been away for a while...lost my job, for one thing. Applications, interviews dominate my time these days. Why on earth are Loko Moscow 3/1 at home against Neverkusen? Loko won away in the first match against them, and with both on 3 points, either can put themselves in the driver's seat for the Europa League slot. Home dogs in the latter rounds of this competition are fairly solid, too. Lokomotiv Moskva @ 3.90 (5dimes)
  18. Worth keeping in mind as potential value bets. Going back a decade in this competition, there have been six previous KOs where the home side in the second leg lost the first leg by 2-3 goals and were then established as dogs to a favorite of under 2.00. Two of those sides won the second leg outright: Molde 1-0 over Sevilla in a round of 16 match in 2016, and Sporting 1-0 over Atletico Madrid in last year's quarterfinals. It's a small sample, but the away sides in this sample know they can lose narrowly and still advance. They may have rotated their sides, as well. The other home dog today is Slavia. There have been six other matches in this database with the same circumstances, having drawn the first match or lost by 1. With the tie in the balance, two of those six home dogs have won outright: APOEL 2-0 over Bilbao in a 2017 round of 16 match, and Dnipro, 1-0 over Napoli in a 2015 semifinal. Winning 4 of 12 at odds of between 3.70 and 6.00 is pretty good. Actually, one match in each small sample featured a home dog of more than 5.00, and both lost. So at odds of 3.70 to 4.99, home dogs have gone 2-5 and 2-5. If you took all 10 of those over the years, you won 12 units of profit.
  19. Got the X on Rotherham and Swans, about 3.6 and 3.75. It's that time of the season, when lines get inflated, most typically because a side are fighting for playoff spot or positioning. In this case the odds on Rotherham are strange in that they're fighting the drop, and QPR aren't that good of a home side. Not 1.8 good.
  20. I've finally returned to even on home dogs in the North and South this season, after last season's great run. Last season, collectively home dogs of up to 3.99 finished at 30% wins, while this year it's just 26%. Still, Boston Utd is an obvious pick home to Stockport at 3.66. Will also be on home dogs Brechin (3.64) and Cheltenham (4.87) today.