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allthethings

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Everything posted by allthethings

  1. Worth keeping in mind as potential value bets. Going back a decade in this competition, there have been six previous KOs where the home side in the second leg lost the first leg by 2-3 goals and were then established as dogs to a favorite of under 2.00. Two of those sides won the second leg outright: Molde 1-0 over Sevilla in a round of 16 match in 2016, and Sporting 1-0 over Atletico Madrid in last year's quarterfinals. It's a small sample, but the away sides in this sample know they can lose narrowly and still advance. They may have rotated their sides, as well. The other home dog today is Slavia. There have been six other matches in this database with the same circumstances, having drawn the first match or lost by 1. With the tie in the balance, two of those six home dogs have won outright: APOEL 2-0 over Bilbao in a 2017 round of 16 match, and Dnipro, 1-0 over Napoli in a 2015 semifinal. Winning 4 of 12 at odds of between 3.70 and 6.00 is pretty good. Actually, one match in each small sample featured a home dog of more than 5.00, and both lost. So at odds of 3.70 to 4.99, home dogs have gone 2-5 and 2-5. If you took all 10 of those over the years, you won 12 units of profit.
  2. Got the X on Rotherham and Swans, about 3.6 and 3.75. It's that time of the season, when lines get inflated, most typically because a side are fighting for playoff spot or positioning. In this case the odds on Rotherham are strange in that they're fighting the drop, and QPR aren't that good of a home side. Not 1.8 good.
  3. I've finally returned to even on home dogs in the North and South this season, after last season's great run. Last season, collectively home dogs of up to 3.99 finished at 30% wins, while this year it's just 26%. Still, Boston Utd is an obvious pick home to Stockport at 3.66. Will also be on home dogs Brechin (3.64) and Cheltenham (4.87) today.
  4. Gloucester 3.74, Hungerford 3.60, barely got these in
  5. Carlisle 3.88 in League Two Stirling 3.80, Queen's Park 4.10 in Scotland Running late, sorry
  6. Typical. Betis press and press and press for an equalizer, give up a third goal on the last kick of the match.
  7. After all the favorites crushed dogs in the early matches, I've taken Celta-Rennes X at 4.10. Mind you, Rennes will not advance with a draw...it would need to be 3-3 to get them to extra time.
  8. Home dogs in the North and South are hitting at about 24% so far this season, lower than the standard 29%, and it's the difference between profit and loss. On them again today...Weston 3.59, York 3.65 and Leamington 3.65.
  9. I think you'd have to be a bit mad to put money on this match, to be honest. With a 9-0 first leg in the books, you just have no idea who shows up on either side. In my strategy, nothing under 3.50 or so is ever worth taking, on any match. In this kind of match, City *might* turn up and cover a handicap, but is it really worth the risk at even money? I'd be far more inclined to take the home side at 16.00...it's as probable as any other result, and for a great profit. To be clear, I'm not taking anything here. I'm saying that under these crazy circumstances, you can't honestly say that any punt is more than 50-50 Taking a bet at 2.00 is a coin flip. Using my logic, if it's really a coin flip, go for the better odds.
  10. Fulham-Spurs X at 3.78 Spurs' away results mean little here...away results with a full squad I mean. And Fulham haven't been so bad at home, not in the way they've been overmatched away. With a less explosive away side and a home side that are likely to dig in, I think if Fulham get a result it will be a draw.
  11. After I posted, Halifax odds jumped to around 4.60, so I'm on the draw as planned, at 3.70.
  12. Just can't seem to get Halifax right. Had them in November to win at Morecambe in the FA Cup...they drew 0-0 to force a replay...and had them in the league to win at Gateshead during Christmas week, but they could only get a 1-1 draw. In between, I had them to draw away at Barrow in the FA Trophy, but they get an 88' goal to win 1-2. I was all set to take draw in today's replay at Solihull, but with the odds now having dropped below 4.00, the proper play is outright win. I will be waiting until close to kick to decide which of these I'll take.
  13. FA Trophy - Telford 3.92, Dag&Red 5.03 Nothing to say; trends in the round of 16 say these have a decent shot at getting a result.
  14. Following the trend of outright wins in Ligue 2 after the Christmas break, I'm going to back Troyes to uncharacteristically win away to Brestois. The 4.86 seems worth the risk to me.
  15. FA Trophy Oxford City 4.09 EFL Trophy Portsmouth 3.86
  16. After the last-play PK by Portsmouth robbed me of my second draw, I'm back with two more: Millwall-Hull X 3.37 and Preston-Doncaster X 3.56.
  17. Could have done without the Gills' winning goal. I did also take Blackburn and Portsmouth to get draws at about 3.45 each. See Norwich have had one sent off early...
  18. Peterborough 6.32, Oxford Utd 6.25, Gillingham-Cardiff X 3.95
  19. Wrexham-Dover X 3.60, Solihull-Eastleigh X 3.86, Braintree 3.99
  20. There's no value at all in what you've suggested. You'll cash both at terrible odds if the final score reads either 0-2 or 0-3, and cashing one will lose you money. Spurs did have the two replays last winter, but over the years this hasn't been a typical outcome. Really, there's no way to handicap a match like this. This represents the highest odds on a home dog since I started keeping track. If you look at the matches in the round of 32 with a home dog of more than 8.00, you get one draw, four losses by exactly one goal, one loss by two and one loss by four. With these bets taken together, you'd profit in one of those seven circumstances. In the round of 16, there are ten such matches, and you'd have profited from three of them.
  21. Tiffy's right about 4/1 underdogs, but let me flesh that out with numbers from the past decade. Dogs of up to 4.99 tend toward draws when they get a result in the round of 32, and dogs of 5.00-5.99 tend toward wins. That's true of both home and away dogs. My database is built with closing odds (from Betexplorer), so you'll have to see what happens between now and kickoff.