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  1. #1
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    Default 2013 AFL ROUND 6

    ROUND 6
    Friday, May 3
    Coll v StK, Etihad, 7.50pm
    Saturday, May 4
    Ess v GWS, Etihad, 1.45pm
    NM v PA, Blundstone, 2.10pm
    Adel v Haw, AAMI, 4.40pm
    Rich v Geel, MCG, 7.40pm
    GC v Frem, Metricon, 7.40pm
    Sunday, May 5
    Syd v BL, SCG, 1.10pm
    Carl v Melb, MCG, 3.15pm
    WC v WB, Patersons, 4.40pm
    COMETH THE HOUR, COMETH THE MAN!

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    Default

    Pretty ordinary round next week. Seven certaintys and 2 warm favourites in nth melbourne and Geelong.

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    Default Re: 2013 AFL ROUND 6

    I thought I would never ever see it happen. Sportsbet have the Dons V GWS at $1.005 thats no typo either!

    Bet $1000 to make $5.

    Geez it wouldnt even be worth the price of a phone call on some mobile plans lol.
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    Default Re: 2013 AFL ROUND 6

    North at $1.55 v Port at $2.35

    Is the best offer for a fav if your assuming North are favs.
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    Default Re: 2013 AFL ROUND 6

    I might even leave this Round alone. What I would love to see happen is 3-4 upsets as it keeps everyone honest.

    All the favs winning is paying just $4.6
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    Default Re: 2013 AFL ROUND 6

    Cats/Hawks @ $1.80 is tempting.
    Richmond coming back from Subii and Hawks playing a Walker-less crows at AAMI who I do not rate at all. Hoping the line is under 20 for that game.

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    Default Re: 2013 AFL ROUND 6

    Managed to work out a few bets will post hopefully Monday night.

    Definitely betting 2.5% this round. It's a pity North didn't get up, dinner always taste better with a win while eating. North had a poor structure in place up forward and poor decision making. But came close to one of the upsets of the year.
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    Default Re: 2013 AFL ROUND 6

    Pies into Cats 10U ~ $1.65 for a 6.5U collect
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    Default Re: 2013 AFL ROUND 6

    Just a funny stat. Every team that's played doggies this year has lost the following week. Also every away team that has played at pattersons has won the following week. Going off that tigers may b a good thing

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    Very interested in the line and over/under markets in the following 2 games.

    Essendon vs Gws
    Carlton vs Melbourne

    Melbourne won't win another game this season I'm tipping and I hope the line goes up tomorrow at anything around 60-70 and the over/under at anywhere close to 205.5 would be nice.

    These are melbourne stats thus far.

    Vs Port lost by 79 / total points 189
    Vs Essendon lost by 148 /220
    Vs West Coast lost by 94 / 260
    Vs Gws Won by 41 / 247
    Vs Brisbane Lost by 28 /216.

    28 point loss on Sunday against Brisbane absolutely flattered them should have been beaten by a minimum 10 goals the way Brisbane dominated. Carlton have a very kind draw in the next month and actually could end up being 6-3 after 9. They have played some great football in losses this year and given how badly melbourne played against Brisbane and West Coast who have had horrible starts I would expect Carlton to win by 85-115 points on Sunday. Melbourne have taken the game on a bit the last few weeks so I would expect the total points to be in the vicinity of 235-250.

    Lines won't be up until later in the week but anywhere near the -70 / 215.5 and I will be maximizing the outlay.

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    Default Re: 2013 AFL ROUND 6

    Quote Originally Posted by ThemanwiththeSTATS View Post
    Lines won't be up until later in the week but anywhere near the -70 / 215.5 and I will be maximizing the outlay.
    You can readily get -57.5 now (or some 56.5 at one outlet). I think you may find the TOTAL won't open higher than 210, which shall seem low for Melbourne game. I'm a little wary of teams taking Melbourne lightly now that the writing's on the wall but yeah the h'cap is temptingly very low.

    Did you mean to share your thought on Essendon-GWS or deliberately withheld? I like GWS in this one.

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    Default Re: 2013 AFL ROUND 6

    Quote Originally Posted by Xtremo View Post
    Just a funny stat. Every team that's played doggies this year has lost the following week. Also every away team that has played at pattersons has won the following week. Going off that tigers may b a good thing
    Well I think Richmond are a genuine smokey. Just that the bookies fancy them a bit too, with the lines slightly short of where I'd make them a bet, maybe. Geelong were slack last week and it is not always straight forward to flick on a switch next up. Richmond may be the hunter in this.

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    Default Re: 2013 AFL ROUND 6

    Hi Guys,

    Joined up a few weeks back and been taking in all your advise so far. But I feel it is my turn
    to share my thoughts. I was going to go with crows advise and not bet this round, but I pulled the
    trigger today and have to stick with it
    I have gone all head to heads.
    Coll ($1.17) x North ($1.36) x Hawks ($1.23) x Freo ($1.38) = $2.70

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    Default Re: 2013 AFL ROUND 6

    conjerski! Just remember to never go with crowbot's advice on Adelaide games .


    Bets this week,

    GWS +87.5 @ 1.91 (advise bet to 81.5)
    North Melbourne 1.45 (advise bet to 1.43)
    Brisbane +44.5 @ 1.91

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    Default Re: 2013 AFL ROUND 6

    lol Ashtee I am clueless at times with the Crows. If money wasnt an issue I would be backing them each year to win the flag.

    I do like Adelaide and Gold Coast as my smokies for this round. With that said I have not parted with my money on them as I have committed myself to my earlier bet.

    Ashtee - GWS is an awesome bet IMO. Hird WILL rest at least 4 players.

    I like North too and the Brisbane line bet of your is good as well.
    COMETH THE HOUR, COMETH THE MAN!

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    Default Re: 2013 AFL ROUND 6

    When Tex did his knee I threw the bottle through the TV, kicked the dog and punched a hole in the wall.

    I was so flattened, while I love punting I need Adelaide to be up and about it helps me and motivates me to read and watch AFL as much as possible.

    That being said I did well in 2011 and the Crows were dead team walking for the most part of that year.

    FYI: Ash I think the Tex injury sapped the entire team that day, I did fancy an upset lol.
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    Default Re: 2013 AFL ROUND 6

    Of course I won't comment on Adelaide but agree on Gold Coast. If the price blows out a little I could get keen.

    My opinion with Essendon is they kinda have thirty guys of equal ability, so unless it's Watson rested it doesn't matter heaps - although they probably will play a rookie or two. I just feel they might struggle to find full motivation. It is noted that GWS have played at Etihad just the once.

    I'm placing a little on Brisbane at +15.5 too.
    Last edited by Ashtee; 01-05-2013 at 04:03.

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    Default Re: 2013 AFL ROUND 6

    Quote Originally Posted by crowbot View Post
    When Tex did his knee I threw the bottle through the TV, kicked the dog and punched a hole in the wall.

    I was so flattened, while I love punting I need Adelaide to be up and about it helps me and motivates me to read and watch AFL as much as possible.

    That being said I did well in 2011 and the Crows were dead team walking for the most part of that year.

    FYI: Ash I think the Tex injury sapped the entire team that day, I did fancy an upset lol.
    I had a good go on Carlton, so when #13 went down I grabbed a beer, bought a dog and a flash new TV and rang the repairman for the hole in the wall from the week before.

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    Default

    Carlton line of -59.5 and over/under is 200.5. Handicappers have got these 2 wrong so I will be betting up big accordingly.

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    Default Re: 2013 AFL ROUND 6

    Quote Originally Posted by conjerski View Post
    Hi Guys,

    Joined up a few weeks back and been taking in all your advise so far. But I feel it is my turn
    to share my thoughts. I was going to go with crows advise and not bet this round, but I pulled the
    trigger today and have to stick with it
    I have gone all head to heads.
    Coll ($1.17) x North ($1.36) x Hawks ($1.23) x Freo ($1.38) = $2.70
    welcome too, I'm glad you made a contribution, this is a relaxed easy going forum so you can expect the same. We all win and lose here, it's about being in the game longer and making smart astute decisions over the long run.

    lol regardless of what Ash says the Crows are a chance......but not with my money this weekend.
    COMETH THE HOUR, COMETH THE MAN!

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    Default Re: 2013 AFL ROUND 6

    Quote Originally Posted by Ashtee View Post
    I had a good go on Carlton, so when #13 went down I grabbed a beer, bought a dog and a flash new TV and rang the repairman for the hole in the wall from the week before.
    I just turned up at Centrelink on Monday asking them for a cash advance and if they knew any unemployed people who could play full forward.
    COMETH THE HOUR, COMETH THE MAN!

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    Default Re: 2013 AFL ROUND 6

    Pies v Saints under 198.5 . WIll discuss later, i apologise for my lack of input in the thread compared to most years, been flat stick with poker will hope to increase my input especially in the latter half of the year

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    Default Re: 2013 AFL ROUND 6

    What do you guys think about the Eagles making the top 8?

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    Default Re: 2013 AFL ROUND 6

    Quote Originally Posted by Jdbr View Post
    What do you guys think about the Eagles making the top 8?
    I couldn't give a proper opinion without further analysis and consideration of whether or not 1.90 is a good price but every year there is a team or two that are April duds then build momentum as the season goes on. Obviously the type of players they've had out (Nat & Waters) hasn't helped but I think the main problem could be proper motivation is down 5%, thinking it will just happen for them this year (widely tipped to finish top). I call it 'season focus' and it can be hard to change, enough to hinder them challenging for the flag while still talented enough to make a charge for the eight.

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    Default Re: 2013 AFL ROUND 6

    +1 Ash.

    There are teams that look like premiers and then there are teams slowly building momentum in April.

    If my life was on the line, I would back the Cats (after the Crows of course lol) to win the flag this year. Although with that said the Dons do have the players to win a flag too.

    Injuries, momentum and motivation are the three ingredients to win flags.
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    Default Re: 2013 AFL ROUND 6

    Might have a punt on the Crows this weekend, would love for their price to go out further.

    At odds of around $4.25 a unit bet may be the go for me.

    Think also the GC will beat Freo too.
    COMETH THE HOUR, COMETH THE MAN!

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    Default Re: 2013 AFL ROUND 6

    Big bets for Round 6


    AFL ROUND SIX

    $14,800 @ $1.12 ON COLLINGWOOD V ST KILDA
    $5,000 @ $1.90 ON ST KILDA +30.5 V COLLINGWOOD
    $5,000 @ $1.06 ON WEST COAST V WESTERN BULLDOGS
    $3,890 @ $1.30 ON FREMANTLE V GOLD COAST
    $3,600 @ $3.05 ON PORT ADELAIDE V NTH MELB
    $3,500 @ $1.80 ON ST KILDA +30.5 V COLLINGWOOD
    $3,000 @ $1.36 ON GEELONG V RICHMOND



    $15,000 @ $1.15 ON SYDNEY TO MAKE FINAL 8
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    Default Re: 2013 AFL ROUND 6

    Quote Originally Posted by ThemanwiththeSTATS View Post
    Very interested in the line and over/under markets in the following 2 games.

    Essendon vs Gws
    Carlton vs Melbourne

    Melbourne won't win another game this season I'm tipping and I hope the line goes up tomorrow at anything around 60-70 and the over/under at anywhere close to 205.5 would be nice.

    These are melbourne stats thus far.

    Vs Port lost by 79 / total points 189
    Vs Essendon lost by 148 /220
    Vs West Coast lost by 94 / 260
    Vs Gws Won by 41 / 247
    Vs Brisbane Lost by 28 /216.

    28 point loss on Sunday against Brisbane absolutely flattered them should have been beaten by a minimum 10 goals the way Brisbane dominated. Carlton have a very kind draw in the next month and actually could end up being 6-3 after 9. They have played some great football in losses this year and given how badly melbourne played against Brisbane and West Coast who have had horrible starts I would expect Carlton to win by 85-115 points on Sunday. Melbourne have taken the game on a bit the last few weeks so I would expect the total points to be in the vicinity of 235-250.

    Lines won't be up until later in the week but anywhere near the -70 / 215.5 and I will be maximizing the outlay.
    looking at those numbers it looks good but if you look through last seasons totals it tells a different story. Having said that I hope you get the overs your looking for.

    My tip is on the unders for Swans v Lions this week <190.5 @ 1.87

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    Default Re: 2013 AFL ROUND 6

    Quote Originally Posted by crowbot View Post
    Big bets for Round 6


    AFL ROUND SIX

    $14,800 @ $1.12 ON COLLINGWOOD V ST KILDA
    $5,000 @ $1.90 ON ST KILDA +30.5 V COLLINGWOOD
    $5,000 @ $1.06 ON WEST COAST V WESTERN BULLDOGS
    $3,890 @ $1.30 ON FREMANTLE V GOLD COAST
    $3,600 @ $3.05 ON PORT ADELAIDE V NTH MELB
    $3,500 @ $1.80 ON ST KILDA +30.5 V COLLINGWOOD
    $3,000 @ $1.36 ON GEELONG V RICHMOND



    $15,000 @ $1.15 ON SYDNEY TO MAKE FINAL 8
    You've outlayed a bit there, crowbot, good luck!

    Obviously those clueless to the fact I talk in relevance to odds know that Sydney should make it but I don't know I'd want to be riding $15,000 Sydney at 1.15. They are very light on for experienced players on their list (perhaps to fit Kurt 'how Adelaide could do with him now' Tippett into the salary cap?), so if they start to get more injuries (already down a couple for season) they could be exposed, combined with a question mark over their season motivation.

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    Default Re: 2013 AFL ROUND 6

    Quote Originally Posted by Ashtee View Post
    You've outlayed a bit there, crowbot, good luck!

    Obviously those clueless to the fact I talk in relevance to odds know that Sydney should make it but I don't know I'd want to be riding $15,000 Sydney at 1.15. They are very light on for experienced players on their list (perhaps to fit Kurt 'how Adelaide could do with him now' Tippett into the salary cap?), so if they start to get more injuries (already down a couple for season) they could be exposed, combined with a question mark over their season motivation.
    I should note, that those bets are not mine lol. I dont like to talk about how much I bet as to each person the dollar is viewed differently.

    Those bets are the big bets going around at the moment. But I will say this much, they DONT advertise all the big bets!

    Good Luck Ash.

    Rumours flying around Melbourne - A major Pie is out and cold. The Saints have eased in and the Pies have eased out!
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    Default Re: 2013 AFL ROUND 6

    Quote Originally Posted by crowbot View Post
    I should note, that those bets are not mine lol. I dont like to talk about how much I bet as to each person the dollar is viewed differently.

    Those bets are the big bets going around at the moment. But I will say this much, they DONT advertise all the big bets!

    Good Luck Ash.

    Rumours flying around Melbourne - A major Pie is out and cold. The Saints have eased in and the Pies have eased out!
    Just wanted to humiliate you, crow. I know that you stake way bigger than that and all your bets involve a three way conference call between yourself, the bookmaker and your bank manager.

    Most of those wagers will be from the type of punter bookies love - those trying to bag a sure thing. Saints are looking a better chance of late but none of those bets are value IMO.

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    Default Re: 2013 AFL ROUND 6

    Quote Originally Posted by Ashtee View Post
    Just wanted to humiliate you, crow. I know that you stake way bigger than that and all your bets involve a three way conference call between yourself, the bookmaker and your bank manager.

    Most of those wagers will be from the type of punter bookies love - those trying to bag a sure thing. Saints are looking a better chance of late but none of those bets are value IMO.
    Its a 4 way call if I had my way lol, I would have you on another line telling me not to liquidate my assets.

    Actually I have been better disciplined this year than at any other. No betting on EPL or IPL, where I would lose a few and leak units here and there. The size of my bets has reduced compared to previous years where the "guaranteed" win involved me putting the house/car and dog on a win. Im suprised I have never lost my bank with the way I used to bet. I still need to refine my betting, Im slowly getting there.

    Im probably likely bet 1U on the Crows on the day, it adds to the entertainment of the game. Contradicting what I said earlier, but it makes more exciting.

    Im no good at long term bets, hence I just dont bother at this stage it should be a Dons v Cats GF but literally anything can happen ranging from ASADA to long term injuries to loss of form.
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    Default Re: 2013 AFL ROUND 6



    I thought you may like this Ash, I think this is what kind of punter your like. This is the punter I aspire to become. I love this dude.
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    Default

    Five or six tiger players have a virus and Paul chapman out for Geelong .

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    Default Re: 2013 AFL ROUND 6

    Quote Originally Posted by ThemanwiththeSTATS View Post
    Five or six tiger players have a virus and Paul chapman out for Geelong .
    Well that can only be good news with my bet. The Cats have the depth to cover Chapman, but the Tigers do not to cover several players.

    Will be interesting if they are their A Class players.

    This happened to the Crows against the Roos last year, I bet big on the Crows (no surprise lol) and several of their players had a virus.
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    Default Re: 2013 AFL ROUND 6

    Quote Originally Posted by conjerski View Post
    Hi Guys,

    Joined up a few weeks back and been taking in all your advise so far. But I feel it is my turn
    to share my thoughts. I was going to go with crows advise and not bet this round, but I pulled the
    trigger today and have to stick with it
    I have gone all head to heads.
    Coll ($1.17) x North ($1.36) x Hawks ($1.23) x Freo ($1.38) = $2.70
    Crow, seeing as this was my first post I am going to borrow your line.
    PAYDAY!!!

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    Default Re: 2013 AFL ROUND 6

    Quote Originally Posted by conjerski View Post
    Crow, seeing as this was my first post I am going to borrow your line.
    PAYDAY!!!
    lol. Priceless and thank you for the contribution well done mate.
    COMETH THE HOUR, COMETH THE MAN!

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    Default Re: 2013 AFL ROUND 6

    Quote Originally Posted by crowbot View Post
    Pies into Cats 10U ~ $1.65 for a 6.5U collect

    PAYDAY.


    13Poker_display_image.jpg
    COMETH THE HOUR, COMETH THE MAN!

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    Default Re: 2013 AFL ROUND 6

    Quote Originally Posted by Ice View Post
    .

    My tip is on the unders for Swans v Lions this week <190.5 @ 1.87

    PAYDAY.

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    Default Re: 2013 AFL ROUND 6


    Highest Odds at Marathonbet
    Quote Originally Posted by Ice View Post
    PAYDAY.
    Yo, VIP, Let's kick it!

    Ice Ice Baby, Ice Ice Baby
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