Allsvenskan Predictions >1st-2nd

[dejann]

Elfsborg -3/4 @2.04

Min price to bet: -3/4 @1.96

Model +value: yes

Significant team news: - (nothing new important)

Note: Degerfors are the only Allsvenskan team without points so far, terrible 0-0-5 start for them and the only category they are the best in the league is the number of saves per game, which stands at massive 5.8, whole 2.2 higher than next 'best'. While their urgency to get some points on the board is great, we wouldn't give them more than 40% to achieve that tomorrow against strong Elfsborg side. The visitors have started the season with 2-2-1 record, which is good enough only for 8th place at the moment, but they have been perhaps the best team alongside Hammarby so far. Their huge +10.4 shots diff is the best in the league, they also created the league-high 13 big chances and are 2nd in xGls for at 10.4 and also in xGls against at 3.2; with both their defeats against the run of play, especially 1-0 away at Helsingborg; and they also out-shot and out-chanced champions Malmo in 1-1 away draw. Elfsborg have kept most of their starters from last season, in which they finished 4th, but only 4 pts behind champions Malmo, and it will be no surprise to see them fighting for top 3 again. They beat Degerfors in both league games last season, annihilated them 5-1 in the Cup game this March, and the way they've been playing it will be a surprise if they don't score at least 2 goals tomorrow. Weather will be ok, we are quite close to TG overs as well, but price is not quite there, perhaps an update tomorrow before noon.