Non-League Predictions - 27th April

[Darran]

Final fixtures of the Step 3 season tomorrow.

 

Basford v Bamber Bridge

Bamber lost 7 on the bounce before beating Whitby and Macclesfield in the past 7 days. Basford are now safe after the draw at Radcliffe last week and I reckon it might be a case of job done so could be hard to get them up for a game like this.

 

FCUM v Lancaster

After a poor run of form Lancaster are actually ending the season well winning 4 games on the bounce. The home side have had a poor season and have lost 4 of their last 5 games.

 

Gainsborough v Radcliffe

Don't think Radcliffe will care if they win or not and they only got a point against Basford last week. Gainsborough have been in fantastic form since February only losing 2 games and chances are they will fancy beating the champions.

 

Warrington Rylands v Ilkeston

The home side have lost their last 2 games and whilst they could get 3^rd they are safely in the  play-offs, but they have had issues with their manager having to be let go and that seems to have disrupted them. Ilkeston have won 5 on the bounce and are unbeaten in 8 so look a very big price here.

 

Whitby v Macclesfield

Macclesfield rested a lot of players on Tuesday and lost to Bamber Bridge who also happened to beat Whitby on Saturday. Given they can only finish 2^nd I expect they will continue to rest the first team ahead of the play-offs so happy to back Whitby to beat them.

 

Coalville v AFC Telford

Coalville have had a very disappointing season given they only lost out on the title by a goal to Tamworth a year ago and they went and won the title again this season. This game could well give them a winning end to the season though because Telford can only finish 2^nd now Mickleover have had their 12 point deduction confirmed. I suspect they will rest players so that gives the advantage to the home side.

 

Gosport v Chesham

Opposed Chesham last week which worked and with Gosport still able to finish in the top 3 there is more on the line for them here. Granted Gosport aren't ending the season in the best of form, but given they are outsiders here I think they are too big.

 

Walton & Hersham v Poole

Opposing Poole was very profitable for a while, but they have perked up in their last 4 games and they have won 3 of them. Walton have only lost once in 8, but they struggled in their last 2 games and it was poor last week to give up a 2 goal lead against Plymouth. Poole look a big price to win here.

 

Prices from Friday 5pm

 

Bamber Bridge 1pt @ 9/5 with Bet365 (take up to 6/4)

Lancaster 1pt @ 9/5 with Skybet, Betfred and Bet365 (take up to 6/5)

Gainsborough 1pt @ 19/10 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 6/4)

Ilkeston 1pt @ 11/4 with Betfred (take up to 2/1)

Whitby 1pt @ 21/10 with Bet365, Skybet and Betfred (take up to 7/4)

Coalville 2pts @ 21/10 with Skybet and Betfred (take up to 6/4)

Gosport 1pt @ 9/5 with Skybet and Betfred (take up to 6/4)

Poole 1pt @ 11/5 with Skybet and Betfred (365 are 23/10 and take up to 6/4)

[harry_rag]

Just shy of a system pick but played Linney for Altrincham; 9/1 e/w first and 11/4 anytime. Scored in 11 of his 22 starts and takes pens.

A couple for your notebook as well, Stevens and Campbell for Solihull. Both scored in 3 out of the 10 games they've started together and one of them scored in the other 7. Maybe worth following in their 2 visits to Wembley!

[harry_rag]

20 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Just shy of a system pick but played Linney for Altrincham; 9/1 e/w first and 11/4 anytime. Scored in 11 of his 22 starts and takes pens.

Might be worth taking a closer look at Non-League goalscorers, at least at National League level (doubt there'll be much coverage by the bookies lower down). Maybe it flies under the radar a bit in terms of the accuracy of the prices. It tends to fly under mine as I usually only bet on games where the spreads are priced up which will pretty much just be the TV games.

@Darran is it an angle you ever even look at? Obviously you'll have a good idea of who the decent strikers are etc. but I'd guess your focus is very much on the results markets (where you do so well that I'm surprised you can still get a bet on)!

[Darran]

5 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Might be worth taking a closer look at Non-League goalscorers, at least at National League level (doubt there'll be much coverage by the bookies lower down). Maybe it flies under the radar a bit in terms of the accuracy of the prices. It tends to fly under mine as I usually only bet on games where the spreads are priced up which will pretty much just be the TV games.

@Darran is it an angle you ever even look at? Obviously you'll have a good idea of who the decent strikers are etc. but I'd guess your focus is very much on the results markets (where you do so well that I'm surprised you can still get a bet on)!

I must admit it isn't a market I really delve into, but I suspect there is value to be had as I know that bookies often price up players who are injured, suspended or even not at the club anymore. The National League North/South play-off finals are both on TNT over the weekend so you might get an angle there as with it being on TV I'm sure it will be priced up.

[harry_rag]

24 minutes ago, Darran said:

I must admit it isn't a market I really delve into, but I suspect there is value to be had as I know that bookies often price up players who are injured, suspended or even not at the club anymore. The National League North/South play-off finals are both on TNT over the weekend so you might get an angle there as with it being on TV I'm sure it will be priced up.

Thanks. I do tend to look a bit deeper at the play-offs with the volume of games dropping a bit and the teams being less familiar. I'll push my luck and hope that I didn't just fluke those recent winners!