OddsPredictor

West Ham (1) 2.90 £12.50 Single

Bournemouth (1) 2.5 £25 Single

SPAL (1) 2.45 £25 Single

Newcastle (1) 3.25 £25 Single Here we go again. Happy and Lucky New Year to everyone.

Bournemouth (1) 2.20 £29.15 Single

Put it all (half) on another coupon buster and head on up the table. Well done.

West Ham (2) 3.80 £12 Single

Norwich (1) 2.87 £24 Single

Manchester Utd (1) 1.45 £45 Single

Table below shows a small loss for the predictions since posting on Punters Lounge. A final run of 5 losses sealed it. Luckily for me the overall result for the full season was positive but sorry no consolation if you all. I never predict the last two games of any league season as some very strange 'schools out for summer' results can occur. Hope to return for a full season of predictions in 2020. Be seeing you.

Brighton (1) 3.60 £10 Single

Super League resumes this weekend 22/23 November 2019 for the final 3 match run in to the end of the season. Just the one selection for this Sunday and a rather surprising one. Bejing Renhe to win at home against Jiangsu Suning. This rather unlikely selection is rewarded with an almost 5/1 price tag. However funny results can occur when a team know they are doomed to relegation.

Walsall (1) 2.50 £10 single

West Ham (2) 3.00 £10 Single

There is a difference between fair fixed odds events such as a roulette wheel and sporting events. If 8 Reds come in a row on a fair wheel then we all know that this has no relevance to the next spin. I mention fair as if not specified then eg if I toss a coin twenty times and it comes up heads everytime then there is a damn good chance it will be heads again. However in sporting events that may not be the case for instance if Southampton let a lot of goals in when its cold and raining it may well be that the next time it is cold raining the probability that they will do so again may be higher than if it is a sunny day. But we may never know as there may well not be enough events to determine the validity of this hypothesis. In fact I wonder whether there is such a thing as the 'True Odds' on a sporting event and searching for value odds as per my OddsPredictor is like searching for the holy grail. Sure if someone offers me odds of 10/1 against Liverpool beating Man City on Sunday I will take the bet as that is just an obvious error but what about if you are offered 2/1 is that value or not? Whatever you think and whatever the outcome you will never know whether it was a value bet or not. Looking back at past data to test your value bets is also fraught with dangers of unintended influences on your choice and even paper trading has its problems as it is so easy to correct mistakes. I try to use micro betting for my sandpit trials but even that has its problems. What keeps me going is not whether I understand all the concepts but that my system keeps making me a profit albeit small. Maybe I have found the answer by luck. Praise be to Fortuna.