OddsPredictor

I may live to regret not adding that bonus to Dalian Yifang following the appointment of Benitez as manager as once again the system is predicting them to lose in the midweek game. Maybe they will.

Well that was a turn-up for my trousers a 3-2 win. I took odds of 43/10 fairly early on and watched as the odds steadily dropped over the past few days. However 5/2 was still on offer just before kick off.

Impressive profits - can you show the total of your stakes and percentage yield please.

The fixture lists are filling up nicely with the last of the English Leagues due to publish their fixtures this week and we are just waiting for Serie A and Serie B in the European Leagues that we cover. Otherwise our spreadsheets include all the match fixture dates. The table below displays the variable settings that I have chosen as the default though of course the beauty of the system is that you can set your own variables and produce your very own unique predictions.

Just one prediction for this week and another longshot I am afraid so expect the worst.Regarding Dalian Yifang the system has agreed with the market and the odds on offer are within 2% of the expected result so no value bet available.

So the new manager bounce may be occuring and the system will adjust accordingly for this though in retrospect a small nudge in the right direction would have helped. Some early games this coming week so watch out for some equally early predictions.

Unsurprisingly given my decision not to adjust the rating for Dalian Yifang following the arrival of Benitez my system recommends a gamble on their opponents this weekend. The other prediction is also a longshot so do not be surprised if we see a blank this weekend. The stake represents the systems expected percentage true odds so at 32 % and 28% they are unlikely to be successful but if they are the rewards are worthwhile.

The last few variables are ; Independence Factor is the independence between home and away results. If set to 100% then for example an away result will have no affect on any expected future home performance. If set to 0% then home and away are full dependent so any home result affects the home and away performance. At 75% for example a home win will increase the home rating by more than the away rating. Bookmaker Knowledge is a measure of how much bookmaker knowledge alters future team ratings if proven correct. Enter 0 for no affect and 30 for the maximum allowed affect. Wiggle Room is a variable to allow the spreadsheet to modify the Longshot variables depending upon the margin of confidence. Enter 0% for no Wiggle Room and upto 100% for varying levels of Wiggle Room.

At the start of the Season I gave Beijing Guoan a 100pt rating increase due to their team strengthening and this proved correct with Bejing Guoan currently sitting top of the league. I read today that Rafael Benitez is joining Dalian Yifang as manager but I intend to let the system amend their rating according to results. The tempation is to add 50pts as Dalian Yifang must have aspirations beyond their current mid-table position however this may take time. Lets see what happens. Current team ratings after 15 games compared with last season's closing rating and this season's start are;

You have to endure the losing streaks to really appreciate those winning runs.

Details on how these selections are made is described in the 'Betting Strategies and Systems' forum while the stake is the % probability of the outcome occurring as per the system spreadsheet. More predictions next Friday.

Here are some more variables that can be set in the spreadsheet just in case the reader thought that the above choices were not enough. Draw No Bet Insurance on the Data Entry Tab the system automatically enters Y if DNB is recommended for the match. The level of stake required on the draw is shown and cost or return of insurance will be recorded automatically. Holiday Exclusion Period if the results are unpredictable at holiday periods such as Christmas and New Year an exclusion period can be added with From and To dates added on the header page. Between and including these dates no predictions will be made. This is also useful if you yourself are taking a vacation and cannot place any bets. Rating Adjustments two options to adjust ratings during the season are available. A global effect where all the teams ratings are adjusted from a given Reset round number. Individual teams can be adjusted +/- from a given point. Home Away Factor enter a rating difference on the Header page to set the difference between Home and Away ratings at the beginning of the season. Default will retain the rating difference from the previous season.

Just got home from Eastbourne. Watched the Bertens - Sabalenko match on Centre Court and though this made the score 4-0 between the players there was in fact not much between the two players, Loved the way Sabalenko fired a ball over the stands every time she lost a set. Just the final result that counts when betting but 1.54 felt a bit low to me watching live. I will follow with interest your progress but be a bit careful with times as timestamp of 2:35pm for your post was possibly from memory after the match had started. All the best - good luck.

Could be the beginning of my losing streak but here is what the spreadsheet says for this weekend - three home wins hopefully. Off to Eastbourne to watch the tennis today - looks like a sunny day.

11.7% return is impressive over 100 bets but what is not clear to me, not read all the posts so apologies if you have already explained, is which factors do you use to decide odds are good value?