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2022 World Cup Outright Predictions


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The 2022 World Cup group stage has been drawn. Three spots remain left to be determined but we will update this post when those play-off games have been played. Take a look at the groups along with the outright odds above and tell us what predictions you have at this early stage for the tournament.

I'm immediately thinking the bookies are spot on with Brazil as the favourites and England as the second favourites. I think France are always a threat with their current squad but is the same desire there? Spain, Argentina, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, and Portugal are all solid options but not quite at the same level as the front three teams.

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Not given it any thought yet or looked at the draw etc. but my initial reaction is that none of the front-runners scream "back me" at the available prices. 3 teams that look potentially under rated purely at first glance are Denmark, Uruguay and Mexico but I'd have to take a closer look before parting with any money. I'd also say that they'd probably be more viable in a market other than win/each way where you're needing them to reach the final to get a return.

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  • 2 months later...

The final field of 32 was set with Costa Ricas' victory over New Zealand yesterday, I've been working on some subjective ratings and plugged them into my model today - prices available for the first round of matches and the majority of the second in which case they have superseded my match ratings.

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Advised Bet(s) - I like to do a NAP (2pts), NB (1pt), Outsider (0.50pts) and a Long Shot (0.25pts) totaling 3.75pts outlay but I like both my main selections

1.50pts Argentina to win the World Cup @ 9/1

1.50pts Germany to win the World Cup @ 12/1

0.50pts Senegal to win he World Cup @ 80/1

0.25pts Morocco to win the World Cup @ 250/1

 

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I normally judge potential World Cup or European Championship winners using a process of elimination. This looks like being a fairly weak World Cup, as I can’t see any outstanding teams at the moment - we could be in for another 2002.

For me, it will be Germany or Spain who lift the trophy.

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  • 3 months later...

Starts in 33 days' time! :loon

Anyone else feel like it's still ages away? Just can't get used to the concept of it being mid-season. 

Will enjoy it when it comes around but can't get used to there not being that usual rhythm of season end and brief pause before it all begins.

Had a fiver freebie which I stuck on Neymar top scorer at 12s but no further thoughts on bets at this stage.

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On 10/18/2022 at 8:38 PM, harry_rag said:

Had a fiver freebie which I stuck on Neymar top scorer at 12s but no further thoughts on bets at this stage.

I’ve added a fiver each way on Raphina at 80/1 with Lads (66/1 with a boost applied).

Saw him tipped at 40/1 by someone who’s opinion I respect so couldn’t resist a bet at double those odds. It’s on the basis of him being fancied to be employed in quite an attacking role for Brazil and having a big tournament if they do well. Pays 4 places so 2 or 3 goals could be enough for a place return.

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On 10/18/2022 at 8:38 PM, harry_rag said:

Starts in 33 days' time! :loon

Anyone else feel like it's still ages away? Just can't get used to the concept of it being mid-season. 

Will enjoy it when it comes around but can't get used to there not being that usual rhythm of season end and brief pause before it all begins.

Had a fiver freebie which I stuck on Neymar top scorer at 12s but no further thoughts on bets at this stage.

yes, really does feel strange in November! really looking forward to it! it does feel so long away! hoping England would play better again..after Euros, they've just gone downhill!!

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  • 2 weeks later...

Looking at the totals markets on offer so far I was drawn to the 8/15 offered by Sky Bet for >1.5 matches to go to penalties and, to a slightly lesser extent, the 4/7 for >3.5 matches to go to extra time. I usually bet on the draw and penalties once we get to the KO rounds of International tournaments and I couldn't decide whether to bet on a match by match basis or have a decent bet on one or both of those lines.

Whilst I think both of those prices are generous they're still relatively short and would require a fairly decent stake to make a bet worthwhile. So far I've just had modest bets on:

4-5 matches to go to penalties at 11/2 and 6+ at 28/1

I make it that there have been 4 shootouts at each of the last 2 World Cups and Euros. There were only 2 in 2010 but there were 4 in 2006. There were only 2 in the previous Euros but that was from just 7 KO ties rather than 15 as is now the case.

I might regret not just going for the >1.5 line but I think the prices are generous either way.

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I've had the modest amount allowed on >7 own goals in the tournament at 12/5 with 365.

>6 can be backed at evens with Sky Bet and total own goals can be bought at 6.5 with the spread firms. I'm still mulling over taking one of those options.

There were 12 own goals at the last World Cup and 11 at the last Euros (only 51 games as opposed to 64 in the World Cup). At the previous 3 World Cups there were only 5, 2 and 4.

You can take the view that those 2 recent high totals are a blip or that they're evidence of an upward trend (maybe a bit of both). The UEFA technical report for Euro 2020 suggests that "one of the most marked trends in terms of goalscoring" was low crosses or cut backs being turned into their own net by a defender. It observes that "when the ball is outside of the goalkeeper's reach, nine times out of ten it is a goal" where the ball is delivered at such high speed that it will go in whoever touches it.

We might not see double figures again but, at the odds, I think it's worth taking a chance that there are 7 or 8+.

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On 11/10/2022 at 2:11 PM, harry_rag said:

I've had the modest amount allowed on >7 own goals in the tournament at 12/5 with 365.

>6 can be backed at evens with Sky Bet and total own goals can be bought at 6.5 with the spread firms. I'm still mulling over taking one of those options.

There were 12 own goals at the last World Cup and 11 at the last Euros (only 51 games as opposed to 64 in the World Cup). At the previous 3 World Cups there were only 5, 2 and 4.

You can take the view that those 2 recent high totals are a blip or that they're evidence of an upward trend (maybe a bit of both). The UEFA technical report for Euro 2020 suggests that "one of the most marked trends in terms of goalscoring" was low crosses or cut backs being turned into their own net by a defender. It observes that "when the ball is outside of the goalkeeper's reach, nine times out of ten it is a goal" where the ball is delivered at such high speed that it will go in whoever touches it.

We might not see double figures again but, at the odds, I think it's worth taking a chance that there are 7 or 8+.

That statistic has honestly surprised me. I didn't think own goals were so common at major tournaments. I suppose the added pressure and nerves of playing for your country on the biggest stage will increase the likelihood of errors in games. Given those stats, those are great odds you've found on that outcome!

I've also seen that while Brazil remain the pre-tournament favourites that Argentina's price has almost halved since we started this thread. Is that just media hype or is punter money flooding their way? I think my predictor worked out Brazil and Argentina are likely to meet in the semi-final if they both get that far. What a game that would be!

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I've had a bet on 3 or more hat tricks being scored at 10/1 with Betway (to the limited stakes allowed). PP have the same bet at evens which is a laughable price but I don't think it should be as big as 10/1 (i.e. something that would only happed once in every 11 tournaments).

You have to go back to 82 and 86 for the last times the bet would have won, when there were 4 scored in each tournament. There were 2 each in 90 and 94. Since 98 (the advent of the current 32 team and 64 matches format) the totals have been 1, 2, 1, 2 & 2.

Overall, the bet has landed in 2 of the last 10 World Cups, there have been 2 scored in 5 and 1 in the other 3 for an average of 2.1. SX quote total hat tricks this year at 1.85-2.05.

I'm fairly confident that 10/1 is a value price for 3 or more being scored in Qatar.

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Here's a table showing stats for the last 6 World Cups (current format of 32 teams and 16 knockout games).

Year ET TG >0.5 Pens
2018 5 3 2 4
2014 7 8 4 4
2010 4 2 2 2
2006 6 3 2 4
2002 5 3 3 2
1998 4 0 0 3
Total 31 19 13 19

It shows how many of the 16 games went to extra time, how may goals were scored during extra time, how many games had >0.5 goals in extra time and how many went on to penalties. Obviously a very small sample but it makes some of the available prices in various markets look very tempting. I'm just doing a sweep to see what's available.

On 11/2/2022 at 4:47 PM, harry_rag said:

Looking at the totals markets on offer so far I was drawn to the 8/15 offered by Sky Bet for >1.5 matches to go to penalties and, to a slightly lesser extent, the 4/7 for >3.5 matches to go to extra time.

Both of those bets would have landed 6 times out of 6.

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Ok, been round the firms looking at what's available and here's my current position in terms of antepost bets.

  • Neymar top goalscorer at 12/1 with Lads - just using up a free bet. You'd get better odds now.
  • Raphina top goalscorer e/w at 80/1 with Lads - saw him tipped at 40/1 so was happy to take double those odds (66/1 with a boost applied)
  • >2.5 hat tricks scored at 10/1 with Betway - posted with rationale yesterday. As well as PP going evens for the same bet Hills are now up at 10/11.
  • >2.5 matches to go to penalties at 13/10 with Uni Bet - added this today. Landed in 4 of the last 6 World Cups (since it expanded to current format) and both of the last 2 Euros.
  • 4-5 matches to go to penalties at 11/2 with Sky Bet and 6/1 Lads - Added the top up at 6s today. Landed in 3 of the last 6 World Cups and the last 2 Euros
  • 6+ matches to go to penalties at 28/1 with Sky Bet and 35/1 Lads - Again, topped up today. More of a cover bet for the 4-5 bet but still, I think, more likely than the odds imply.
  • 8+ own goals scored at 12/5 with 365 and 13/5 with Lads - Covered in a post above. I've seen 8/13 for <8.5 today so there's definitely value to be had one way or the other.
  • 2-3 goals scored in extra time at 21/10 with Lads - Saw this today. Always the risk of going "bust" on a mid-band bet but I just think the price is too big. Landed in 4 of the last 6 World Cups. Went under once when none scored and went over with an 8 when a couple of games had 3 goals in extra time. Small stake as I'd rather be on it than wrong than swerve it and be right!

4/7 in a couple of places for >3.5 games going to extra time still seems like a great bet (landed in all of the last 6 World Cups). If you want bigger odds then there's 23/20 available for 4-5 matches (landed in 4 out of 6) and 7/2 for 6+ (landed in the other 2) but I can't get away from the fact that dutching those two prices gives you less than the 4/7 for >3.5! :unsure

In the absence of a sudden burst of decisiveness I may just settle with the penalties bets listed above and bet on the draw on a game by game basis, which tends to prove profitable.

 

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I have had an ew bet on uruguay at 50/1 betway on the basis that if they top their group they should have an easier passage. I'm against portugal on the basis that

ronaldho will be a disruptive influence and more detriment than asset.

Messi topgs and brazil winners at 90/1 

martinez top gs and argentina at 100/1

martinez and brazil at 150/1

a few fun bets put on with bet 365 

also done martinez at 25 and richarlison at 33 top goalscorer

For anyone backing Argentina at short odds Messi for the golden ball may be a better option

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2 hours ago, waynecoyne said:

I have had an ew bet on uruguay at 50/1 betway on the basis that if they top their group they should have an easier passage. I'm against portugal on the basis that

ronaldho will be a disruptive influence and more detriment than asset.

I'm also on Uruguay for an outright interest, having arrived at the conclusion that they're possibly the best team to have been underrated by the markets. I've taken the 50/1 each way and also bought them on the spreads outright index at 16.5 with Star Spreads (annoyingly I missed 15 while waiting for my deposit to clear but still better that the prices elsewhere). That pays 100-75-50-25-10-0 from winner downwards so profit from quarter finals onwards.

Personally I don't see the Ronaldo situation as a negative for Portugal, I think he'll be motivated and glad of a break from his domestic woes. I think he'll feel he has a point to prove but all that has to be balanced against the fact that he's not getting any younger. It's an interesting subplot, that's for sure.

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I just can't work out what Uruguay side we'll see. Diego Alonso has a tough job taking over from Oscar Tabarez and a number of the old guard are coming to the end of their careers or aren't as influential on the pitch as they used to be. Yes, it's a last hurrah for the likes of Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani but there are players such as Federico Valverde and Darwin Nunez coming through. I've got them down to reach the last 16 but they'll want to finish top of their group to avoid meeting a likely opponent of Brazil in the next phase. Not sure they'd get past a tricky proposition of a Serbia or Switzerland even if they win the group mind.

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This is very much looking like 2002. It was not only South Korea, but a decent Turkish side that made the semis as well along with arguably the poorest German side in recent memory.

Perhaps the environment is the reason. This is essentially the only WC outside of Korea/Japan to be played in the Orient. 

I suspected squads like Germany, who mainly comprise of Bayern players would have a major advantage essentially playing in the middle of their season with little preparation. 

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5 hours ago, Gamblor13 said:

This is very much looking like 2002. It was not only South Korea, but a decent Turkish side that made the semis as well along with arguably the poorest German side in recent memory.

Perhaps the environment is the reason. This is essentially the only WC outside of Korea/Japan to be played in the Orient. 

I suspected squads like Germany, who mainly comprise of Bayern players would have a major advantage essentially playing in the middle of their season with little preparation. 

Still early days. I think international football as a whole has become a lot more competitive. There are no easy games too often and it's becoming more common that the so-called "lesser teams" are becoming harder to beat and actually picking up victories against favourites. I think a few teams have just come into this tournament under-cooked in their international camps and will grow into the tournament, particularly the European nations.

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Germany are up to 26.00 and Belgium 23.00, which seem rather tasty to me.

Germany are in a difficult spot, almost needing a win vs Spain. If it comes down to it, they may need to rely on goal difference. Luckily they plat Costa Rica on the final matchday.

Belgium meanwhile were played off the park by Canada. I think they were surprised with the Canadian speed. Canada will give many teams problems. They have the best keeper in the tournament, the best playmaker. Now if they can get a striker to get on a roll like Michy or eventually Lukaku.

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46 minutes ago, Gamblor13 said:

Germany are up to 26.00 and Belgium 23.00, which seem rather tasty to me.

Germany are in a difficult spot, almost needing a win vs Spain. If it comes down to it, they may need to rely on goal difference. Luckily they plat Costa Rica on the final matchday.

Belgium meanwhile were played off the park by Canada. I think they were surprised with the Canadian speed. Canada will give many teams problems. They have the best keeper in the tournament, the best playmaker. Now if they can get a striker to get on a roll like Michy or eventually Lukaku.

That Belgium price is certainly worth taking if it can be bought at e/w.

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Quick review of the antepost selections ahead of the quarter finals.

  • Neymar top goalscorer at 12/1 with Lads - just using up a free bet. You'd get better odds now. - might have still been a runner if he'd not had to sit out a couple of group games.
  • Raphina top goalscorer e/w at 80/1 with Lads - saw him tipped at 40/1 so was happy to take double those odds (66/1 with a boost applied) - no regrets given the odds and stake risked but he's underwhelmed compared to Brazil's other attacking players. 
  • >2.5 hat tricks scored at 10/1 with Betway - posted with rationale yesterday. As well as PP going evens for the same bet Hills are now up at 10/11. - Still happy that the odds were value but looks like I'll be glad of the limited stake allowed with yesterday seeing the first one finally arrive. I'd say that's a bit unlucky given there have been 15 braces scored. I'd take the same odds for a future tournament, all things being equal.
  • >2.5 matches to go to penalties at 13/10 with Uni Bet - added this today. Landed in 4 of the last 6 World Cups (since it expanded to current format) and both of the last 2 Euros. - Just need one more from the remaining 8 games. No reason to question the logic of this bet.
  • 4-5 matches to go to penalties at 11/2 with Sky Bet and 6/1 Lads - Added the top up at 6s today. Landed in 3 of the last 6 World Cups and the last 2 Euros - 2 or 3 more needed to land this one so as per the above.
  • 6+ matches to go to penalties at 28/1 with Sky Bet and 35/1 Lads - Again, topped up today. More of a cover bet for the 4-5 bet but still, I think, more likely than the odds imply. - Covers the above bet in the event of 4 or more from the remaining games, happy with that.
  • 8+ own goals scored at 12/5 with 365 and 13/5 with Lads - Covered in a post above. I've seen 8/13 for <8.5 today so there's definitely value to be had one way or the other. - Only 3 so far so looking unlikely. Might have been unlucky to go so many games with no own goals but maybe this is just more random and less quantifiable than I thought.
  • 2-3 goals scored in extra time at 21/10 with Lads - Saw this today. Always the risk of going "bust" on a mid-band bet but I just think the price is too big. Landed in 4 of the last 6 World Cups. Went under once when none scored and went over with an 8 when a couple of games had 3 goals in extra time. Small stake as I'd rather be on it than wrong than swerve it and be right! - None so far after 2 ET games but I'd say the logic still seems about right; not going to regret a small bet on this one, win or lose.

4/7 in a couple of places for >3.5 games going to extra time still seems like a great bet (landed in all of the last 6 World Cups). If you want bigger odds then there's 23/20 available for 4-5 matches (landed in 4 out of 6) and 7/2 for 6+ (landed in the other 2) but I can't get away from the fact that dutching those two prices gives you less than the 4/7 for >3.5! :unsure

In the absence of a sudden burst of decisiveness I may just settle with the penalties bets listed above and bet on the draw on a game by game basis, which tends to prove profitable.

Been backing the draw on a game by game basis and will press on with that from here on in. Even with only 2 from 8 so far the level stakes return is only just short of break even.

The Uruguay outright interest obviously could've gone better. I'm inclined to think you might as well pick most of your antepost interest bets out at random! With so few games the part played by luck should never be underestimated. I did think of tracking (not putting money on) the "upset index" for this World Cup and you'd have made a profit backing the underdogs to win in every group game given how it all panned out.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Well, at least the antepost bets were profitable! 139.75 points profit courtesy of the bets on total penalty shootouts and the buy of Gakpo on the Golden Boot index. After it looking like a bit of a damp squib I ended up a last gasp Messi winner away from landing the 10/1 for 3+ hat tricks so I at least got a run for the tiny stake allowed on that one. The final also scuppered the bet on 2-3 goals scored in extra time as there had already been 2.

Less successful with the bets on the games as I ended up 28.49 points down on the tournament overall.

The only profit of note came from my sell "system" bets (+53 points) and backing the draw in the knockout games (+30.1 points). There were 5 draws from 15 games (the 3rd place game is always a "no bet") and all of them went to penalties. I finished in front despite not getting matched on one of the drawn games.

Worst negative return by far was the -148 points from betting on player assists, something I've pretty much eradicated from my punting but slipped back into for "fun" bets. That was offset to some extent by most of the sell profit being on player assist minutes but it's a reminder that betting on players to get assists is mug territory, for me at least. (Whilst betting on players NOT to get assists is one of the most profitable ways to bet that there is.)

Assists aside (and lesson learnt in that respect) I'm happy with how the betting went in terms of a sensible number of bets and amount staked to give me an added interest in proceedings. Just 18 months or so to the Euros now! :)

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image.png.be48590d617e447064eca3390c20922f.png

I did an analysis of my world cup bets based on type of bet.

Not surprising to see I've been a net loser on the accas - many of which were loooong odds. And hammers home that the simpler I made it (in-play and pre-match singles) the more likely I was to turn a profit.

What rescued the tournament betting-wise for me were a few Argentina-orientated outright bets:

  • Mbappe top scorer & Argentina outright winners @ 80/1
  • Argentina WC winners, Messi golden ball, Martinez golden glove @ 80/1

I'd be in the red without those two.

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