I was wondering how the odds markets would react to Ivan Toney's return tomorrow.
I suspected that there may be a few factors at play
1. Toney himself will be chomping at the bit to make an impact. He might be more willing to take on shots from distance/angles that he might have passed up previously
2. Punters may over-rate his ability to be anywhere near his best form after such a long break
3. With all the press, bookies will take a lot of bets on him
4. Bookies may (unwisely, from a PR perspective IMHO) try to capitalise on his return by offering Toney related specials. Let's see if any pop up tomorrow...
I looked at the shot on target market. Based on last season's stats, these are his implied odds (decimal)
1+ SoT = 72.75% -> 1.37 (best odds: 1.33)
2+ SoT = 37.26% -> 2.68 (best odds: 1.6)
3+ SoT = 14.04% -> 7.1 (best odds: 5.5)
4+ SoT = 3.99% -> 25.06 (best odds: 15.0)
I put the best bookies (not exchange) odds afterwards.
In terms of shots on target against, Forest concede just a shade over average - which makes using a 22/23 season average easier to swallow.
Is there any value there? Depends on what weight you'd give to the 4 factors above, plus others no doubt.