BET365 25% WINNINGS BOOST ON YOUR BET BUILDER

[MCLARKE]

Not a big fan of football betting but I've done very well with this in the last couple of months. Not sure if this is the correct forum to post on.

BET365 offer a 25% winning boost on bet builder bets, minimum 3 legs with minimum combined odds of 1/1.

There is usually 1 bet a day, sometimes 2.

I pick the team with the shortest odds to win. 

The 3 legs are:-

1 Win the match

2 Win the 1st half

3 At least 2 goals in the match

The added benefit with BET365 is they pay out if you are 2 goals ahead.

1st bet

NEWCASTLE v WOLVERHAMPTON 21/10

[Torque]

Don't do too well @MCLARKE otherwise they'll pull it from you.

[harry_rag]

23 minutes ago, Torque said:

Don't do too well @MCLARKE otherwise they'll pull it from you.

I had offers like that pulled before there were offers like that! All concessions chopped many years ago before there were all the fancy things you youngsters get nowadays! 

Good luck @MCLARKE we'll have you spreadbetting next at this rate! Can you clarify, does the offer just apply to games and markets of their choosing or can you choose the markets and what to put in the bet buider (i.e. are the 3 components you list your choice)?

[MCLARKE]

The match is selected by them, usually the best match of the day.

You can can choose what you put in the betbuilder, the 3 I've chosen seem logical to me.

Initially the offer was for a 2 leg bet builder, I don't know if the offer has changed for everybody.

I've made over £500 so far, I keep expecting to get restricted by BET365, they have been excellent in terms of offers and free bets. 

[MCLARKE]

3 hours ago, Torque said:

Don't do too well @MCLARKE otherwise they'll pull it from you.

It's probably offset by the losses I'll make on the lucky 15 bets that I make after being persuaded by @Zilzalian

[MCLARKE]

5 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Not a big fan of football betting but I've done very well with this in the last couple of months. Not sure if this is the correct forum to post on.

BET365 offer a 25% winning boost on bet builder bets, minimum 3 legs with minimum combined odds of 1/1.

There is usually 1 bet a day, sometimes 2.

I pick the team with the shortest odds to win. 

The 3 legs are:-

1 Win the match

2 Win the 1st half

3 At least 2 goals in the match

The added benefit with BET365 is they pay out if you are 2 goals ahead.

1st bet

NEWCASTLE v WOLVERHAMPTON 21/10

A good start with Newcastle grabbing the winner with 10 minutes to go. I was quite happy when Wolves equalised because that then forced Newcastle to go for the 2nd goal. 1-0 would have been no good for me.

Profit £52.50

[harry_rag]

Well done. What was the stake? I’m unsure if the odds you quoted were the odds including the boost or if the boost is applied to the profit.

Do you reckon these bets would be profitable without the boost or does the boost make the difference between a loss and a profit?

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

Well done. What was the stake? I’m unsure if the odds you quoted were the odds including the boost or if the boost is applied to the profit.

Do you reckon these bets would be profitable without the boost or does the boost make the difference between a loss and a profit?

The max stake is £20. The odds quoted are without the boost so the profit is £42 + 25% = £52.50.

I'm pretty sure the bet would be a loss without the boost as all I've done is pick the favourite. Assuming an overround of 5% then over 3 legs I would expect a loss of 15% (I may have simplified the maths a bit there). Add in the 25% boost and I would end up with an expected return of 10% (+ the occasional benefit of the payout for being 2 goals up, eg when Liverpool were beating Real Madrid 2-0 and lost 5-2).

 

[harry_rag]

It did occur to me that what you’re doing could be reduced to a 2 leg bet builder (if the offer terms weren’t a factor) of the win-win double result and >1.5 goals though I got slightly different odds when I tried that on one game! Be interesting to see how this unfolds, maybe track the P/L with and without the boost. It is a decent offer for those able to avail themselves of it.

[Zilzalian]

14 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

It's probably offset by the losses I'll make on the lucky 15 bets that I make after being persuaded by @Zilzalian

Works for me on L15's i am over 3,100 points up in 2023 traditionally my worse 2 months Jan Feb ?

Edited March 13, 2023 by Zilzalian
update

[Smiles Tennis]

They limited me a long time ago. ?

[harry_rag]

@MCLARKE Unibet doing this offer on a European cup game of your choosing. I assume I don't qualify as no sign of the boost in my betslip.

[MCLARKE]

Same with me, shut down by Unibet a while ago. There was an offer with BET365 on the Man City game but I missed it, too busy tring to sort out all the dodgy entries in the Cheltenham comp, glad to say that yours wasn't one of them.

[MCLARKE]

Almost forgot but just managed to get it on.

REAL MADRID v LIVERPOOL 3/1

[harry_rag]

17 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Almost forgot but just managed to get it on.

REAL MADRID v LIVERPOOL 3/1

Unlucky. I had a quick look at the Home-Home double result price on BF after you posted (4 minutes played) and it was 3.95 to back, obviously don't know what the best price was pre-game. Whilst this has been working for you I'm curious as to whether it's the optimum way to play it. I guess I'm thinking how much edge are you getting over the best price for the double result given that's what you're backing with the added need for at least 2 goals. (Had the 1 goal been scored before the break you'd have still lost but the double result would've been a winner.)

Given that the bonus is 25% of the winnings it also struck me that you're getting more a of an odds boost the bigger the price is, e.g.

• £20 at evens returns £45 equating to 2.25 (+12.5%)
• £20 at 2/1 returns £70 equating to 3.5 (+16.67%)
• £20 at 3/1 returns £95 equating to 4.75 (+18.75%)

So there's an argument for favouring bigger prices assuming the original prices all offer the same amount of value in relation to the "true" odds.

All academic given the offer isn't available to me but it piqued my interest a bit in terms of whether a more agile approach might be more profitable. I appreciate from your perspective that a simpler approach makes more appeal and "if it ain't broke" etc.

If you post them earlier where possible I'll try and have a look at the game in question.

[MCLARKE]

3 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

If you post them earlier where possible I'll try and have a look at the game in question.

They used to put the offer up early in the day but this week I've only seen it just before or (in the case of Man City) just after

[MCLARKE]

3 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Unlucky. I had a quick look at the Home-Home double result price on BF after you posted (4 minutes played) and it was 3.95 to back, obviously don't know what the best price was pre-game. Whilst this has been working for you I'm curious as to whether it's the optimum way to play it. I guess I'm thinking how much edge are you getting over the best price for the double result given that's what you're backing with the added need for at least 2 goals. (Had the 1 goal been scored before the break you'd have still lost but the double result would've been a winner.)

Given that the bonus is 25% of the winnings it also struck me that you're getting more a of an odds boost the bigger the price is, e.g.

• £20 at evens returns £45 equating to 2.25 (+12.5%)
• £20 at 2/1 returns £70 equating to 3.5 (+16.67%)
• £20 at 3/1 returns £95 equating to 4.75 (+18.75%)

So there's an argument for favouring bigger prices assuming the original prices all offer the same amount of value in relation to the "true" odds.

All academic given the offer isn't available to me but it piqued my interest a bit in terms of whether a more agile approach might be more profitable. I appreciate from your perspective that a simpler approach makes more appeal and "if it ain't broke" etc.

If you post them earlier where possible I'll try and have a look at the game in question.

You are right, I never considered this. I thought the benefit was 25% across the range but obviously not.

I suppose 1 imponderable is the benefit of the early payout if you are 2 goals ahead. 

Tonight's offer is on Arsenal V Sporting, my normal bet has odds of 23/20, I'm happy to take a different option if you can think of one.

[harry_rag]

I’ll have a look if possible. Arsenal/Arsenal is available at 21/20 or slightly better on BF so it’s not much extra for the requirement of 2+ goals. 

[harry_rag]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

I'm happy to take a different option if you can think of one.

Ran out of time tonight so won't rush to come up with an alternative for the sake of it.

[MCLARKE]

OK, I've gone slightly more adventurous with over 2 goals at 13/8

[Torque]

Harry is right that the bigger the odds the better the bonus. But at the same time, odds of 500 to 1 boosted to 1000 - I've plucked these numbers out of thin air to illustrate a point - aren't much use given the fact that a win would be so unlikely. What's needed is a sweet spot of odds - and I'm not sure what they would be - where the return is maximised but not at the expense of a realistic chance of winning.

[harry_rag]

15 minutes ago, Torque said:

What's needed is a sweet spot of odds - and I'm not sure what they would be - where the return is maximised but not at the expense of a realistic chance of winning.

Agreed, no point in going to the extreme of huge odds to maximise the bonus if you could go years without a winner. Also worth remembering that it’s only a boost to the odds taken, with no regards to the true probability. If you can find selections up to, say, 2/1 where you’re betting at close to fair odds it might be worth staying within that range rather than chasing bigger odds where the value gets progressively worse. 

[Torque]

Thinking about it I'm pretty sure the boost is applied to the odds not the winnings, but even so you can utilise the boost better the higher the odds.

[harry_rag]

On 3/12/2023 at 11:27 PM, MCLARKE said:

The max stake is £20. The odds quoted are without the boost so the profit is £42 + 25% = £52.50.

@Torque Based on odds of 21/10 this suggested it was added to the winnings. Or you could say the 21 part of the odds is boosted by 25%! But it doesn’t fit with 3.1 plus 25% unless my maths are off.

[Torque]

5 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

@Torque Based on odds of 21/10 this suggested it was added to the winnings. Or you could say the 21 part of the odds is boosted by 25%! But it doesn’t fit with 3.1 plus 25% unless my maths are off.

I'm sure you're right Harry. As far as how it looks when it's used, the legs go into the acca which generates the odds and then the 25 percent boost is applied which shows the odds increasing.

[MCLARKE]

I had a similar issue with using free bets on horse racing, the "sweet sport" was odds in the range 13/2 to 10/1

[MCLARKE]

Sporting equalising could be a good thing, might force Arsenal to go for the winner 

[MCLARKE]

40 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Sporting equalising could be a good thing, might force Arsenal to go for the winner 

Or maybe not !

[MCLARKE]

On 3/16/2023 at 9:26 PM, MCLARKE said:

Sporting equalising could be a good thing, might force Arsenal to go for the winner 

Today's bet is Chelsea v West Ham

Odds are

> 1 goal 13/8

> 2 13/5

> 3 11/2

> 4 11/1

> 5 25/1

I'll keep a record of these and see if the higher odds do turn out to more profitable. I've gone for the > 2 option today.

[harry_rag]

So (if I've understood how the boost is applied correctly) it's a question of whether a bet which is likely to be poor value at 3.6 becomes value at 4.25. A decent increase (slightly short of the 5/2 to 4/1 "superboosts" Lads have done on a couple of 1st half tryscorer bets today).

Out of interest, do you have a record of your strike rate, returns and ROI for these bets so far or you only starting to record it now you're posting them on here?

I don't want to persuade you away from something that has worked well so far in pursuit of notional better value!

I'll have a look at this game (for the sheer "fun" of it) and put up a bespoke betbuilder that I'd go for if I had the offer on this game.